| --- |
| license: apache-2.0 |
| tags: |
| - biology |
| - genomics |
| - dna |
| size_categories: |
| - 1K<n<10K |
| --- |
| |
| # evals_eqtl |
| |
| Variant-effect-prediction benchmark of GTEx v8 fine-mapped eQTLs (49 tissues, pooled) vs tested-but-low-PIP variants, gene-matched 1:1 within consequence categories, MAF bins, and distance bins. |
| |
| ## Description |
| |
| | | | |
| |---|---| |
| | Positives | GTEx v8 SuSiE fine-mapped variants with `max(PIP across tested tissues) > 0.9` | |
| | Negatives | `max(PIP) < 0.01` across all tested tissues; gene-matched 1:1 to positives | |
| | Source | [eQTL Catalogue r7](https://www.ebi.ac.uk/eqtl/), study `QTS000015` (GTEx v8), all 49 tissues × `ge` (gene-expression) quantification | |
| | Genome build | GRCh38 (Catalogue is hg38 native) | |
| | Variant type | SNVs only | |
| | Coordinates | 1-based (`pos` is 1-based; `ref` / `alt` are single bases) | |
| |
| The negative pool is sourced from per-tissue **full** nominal sumstats (`*.all.tsv.gz`, ~3.5 GB per tissue), so it includes every variant tested in fine-mapping — including those that never reached a credible set. This is a structural improvement over earlier releases of this dataset (which sourced from a pre-filtered single-file release whose PIP floor at ~1e-4 capped the negative pool at ~1.3M variants); the current pool is ~10M tested variants. |
| |
| ## Splits |
| |
| | Split | Variants (positives + matched negatives) | Chromosomes | |
| |---|---:|---| |
| | `train` | 4,612 (2,306 pos + 2,306 neg) | odd: 1, 3, …, X | |
| | `test` | 3,854 (1,927 pos + 1,927 neg) | even: 2, 4, …, Y | |
| | **total** | **8,466 (4,233 pairs)** | | |
| |
| ## Columns |
| |
| | Column | Type | Description | |
| |---|---|---| |
| | `chrom`, `pos`, `ref`, `alt` | str / int / str / str | Variant coordinates (1-based, GRCh38) | |
| | `label` | bool | `True` for high-PIP eQTL, `False` for tested-but-low-PIP matched negative | |
| | `subset` | str | Consequence-group label for stratified eval (`distal`, `tss_proximal`, `non_coding_transcript_exon_variant`, `3_prime_UTR_variant`, `5_prime_UTR_variant`, `missense_variant`, `synonymous_variant`, `splicing`) | |
| | `match_group` | int | Pos / neg pair ID (every group has 1 positive + 1 matched negative) | |
| | `pip` | float | Maximum PIP across the 49 tissues in which the variant was tested. For negatives this is `< 0.01` (often `0` — see Source) | |
| | `tissues` | str | Comma-separated list of tissues with PIP > 0.9 (empty for negatives) | |
| | `genes` | str | Comma-separated list of eGene Ensembl IDs the variant regulates with PIP > 0.9 (empty for negatives) | |
| | `biotype_classes` | str | Comma-separated `pc` / `nc` classes of the eGenes (e.g. `pc`, `nc`, `nc,pc`). Empty for negatives. Genes missing from Ensembl's biotype table default to `nc`. | |
| | `MAF` | float | Cohort-matched GTEx donor MAF (mean across the 49 per-tissue donor cohorts; the cohorts overlap heavily so per-tissue MAFs are very close) | |
| | `consequence`, `consequence_cre`, `consequence_final`, `consequence_group` | str | Ensembl VEP consequence + grouping used by the matcher | |
| | `distance_tss_pc`, `distance_tss_nc`, `distance_tss` | int | Distance (0-based, half-open) to nearest protein-coding / non-protein-coding TSS, plus their min | |
| | `tss_closest_pc_gene_id`, `tss_closest_nc_gene_id`, `tss_closest_gene_id` | str | Ensembl gene IDs at those distances | |
| | `distance_exon_pc`, `distance_exon_nc`, `distance_exon` | int | Same shape, for nearest exon | |
| | `exon_closest_pc_gene_id`, `exon_closest_nc_gene_id`, `exon_closest_gene_id` | str | Same shape | |
| | `distance_tss_pc_bin`, `distance_tss_nc_bin`, `distance_exon_pc_bin`, `MAF_bin` | str | Categorical bins used as exact-match keys during gene-matching | |
|
|
| ## Per-subset retention |
|
|
| | Subset | n_pos in dataset_all | matched (kept) | retention | |
| |---|---:|---:|---:| |
| | `distal` | 5,333 | 3,067 | 57.5% | |
| | `tss_proximal` | 2,160 | 437 | 20.2% | |
| | `non_coding_transcript_exon_variant` | 1,290 | 318 | 24.7% | |
| | `5_prime_UTR_variant` | 544 | 86 | 15.8% | |
| | `3_prime_UTR_variant` | 535 | 223 | 41.7% | |
| | `splicing` | 333 | 9 | 2.7% | |
| | `missense_variant` | 269 | 46 | 17.1% | |
| | `synonymous_variant` | 230 | 47 | 20.4% | |
| | **total** | **10,694** | **4,233** | **39.6%** | |
|
|
| (Two tiny subsets — `mature_miRNA_variant` n=1, `stop_retained_variant` n=1 — fail to match and are dropped.) |
|
|
| Splicing has the worst retention (~3%) — splicing variants live next to a specific small set of exons, so the gene-id-based categorical match starves neg supply. The phenomenon is structural to the matching framework, not specific to eqtl. |
|
|
| ## Matching design |
|
|
| Locked iter 33 from [issue #156](https://github.com/Open-Athena/bolinas-dna/issues/156), with one **round-2 tweak for eqtl** ([commit 1ad4fef7f7](https://github.com/Open-Athena/bolinas-dna/commit/1ad4fef7f7)) that closes a leak that only became detectable after switching to the richer Catalogue negative pool. |
|
|
| Matching is exact on every categorical key, then Euclidean-nearest on the (RobustScaler-scaled) continuous features as a within-group tie-breaker. Without replacement, k=1. |
|
|
| - **Continuous features**: `distance_tss_pc`, `distance_tss_nc`, `distance_exon_pc`, `distance_exon_nc`, `MAF`. |
| - **Categorical features**: |
| - `chrom`, `consequence_final` |
| - `tss_closest_pc_gene_id`, `tss_closest_nc_gene_id`, `exon_closest_pc_gene_id`, `exon_closest_nc_gene_id` |
| - `distance_tss_pc_bin` (`tss_proximal` only; edges `[0, 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000]`) |
| - `distance_tss_nc_bin` — **two-subset bin**: |
| - `tss_proximal`: edges `[0, 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000]` (iter 33) |
| - `non_coding_transcript_exon_variant`: edges `[0, 200, 1000, 5000]` (round-2 widen-and-extend; ncRNA-exon variants span a much broader dist-to-nc-TSS range than tss_proximal, q=0.05 ≈ 9 bp, q=0.95 ≈ 8.7 kb) |
| - `distance_exon_pc_bin` (`splicing` only; edges `[0, 5, 20, 30]`) |
| - `MAF_bin` — **per-subset tiered scheme with local-quantile bins for distal** (`MAF_TIERED_LOG8_DISTAL_ONLY`): |
| - `distal`: **local equal-width log10(MAF) bins** computed per categorical match group, 8 buckets, joint pos+neg reference. Closes the asymptotic distal MAF residual leak that fixed global edges leave. |
| - `tss_proximal`, `non_coding_transcript_exon_variant`: 20-bin (`MAF_BIN_EDGES_20`) |
| - `3_prime_UTR_variant`, `5_prime_UTR_variant`, `missense_variant`: 10-bin (`MAF_BIN_EDGES_10`) |
| - `synonymous_variant`, `splicing`, …: 5-bin (`MAF_BIN_EDGES_5`) |
|
|
| `tissues` / `genes` / `biotype_classes` are passthrough columns, **not** in the match key. |
|
|
| **Matched-feature diagnostic** (round 2-1): **one Bonferroni-significant leak closed** vs. the round-2 kickoff (ncRNA × distance_tss_nc, PA 0.401 → 0.483). Two small-effect residual leaks in `distal` (PA=0.470 on `distance_tss_pc`, PA=0.536 on `MAF`) left as below the "don't bother" effect-size threshold. |
|
|
| <details> |
| <summary>Full per-(subset, feature) PA / p-value table (round 2-1)</summary> |
|
|
| Format: PA / p. `**` = Bonferroni-significant at α = 0.05 / 40 = 1.25e-3 (8 subsets × 5 matched features). `*` = p < 0.05. PA close to 0.5 = well-matched. |
|
|
| | subset | n | distance_tss_pc | distance_tss_nc | distance_exon_pc | distance_exon_nc | MAF | |
| |---|---:|---|---|---|---|---| |
| | `3_prime_UTR_variant` | 223 | 0.502 / 1.0 | 0.457 / 0.23 | 0.487 / 0.24 | 0.439 / 0.03 \* | 0.547 / 0.18 | |
| | `5_prime_UTR_variant` | 86 | 0.360 / 0.013 \* | 0.395 / 0.066 | 0.494 / 1.0 | 0.442 / 0.25 | 0.535 / 0.59 | |
| | `distal` | 3,067 | **0.470 / 7.8e-4 \*\*** | 0.494 / 0.49 | 0.476 / 0.009 \* | 0.494 / 0.49 | **0.536 / 8.2e-5 \*\*** | |
| | `missense_variant` | 46 | 0.413 / 0.30 | 0.435 / 0.46 | 0.511 / 1.0 | 0.489 / 1.0 | 0.630 / 0.10 | |
| | `non_coding_transcript_exon_variant` | 318 | 0.544 / 0.13 | 0.483 / 0.57 | 0.487 / 0.69 | 0.502 / 1.0 | 0.553 / 0.064 | |
| | `splicing` | 9 | 0.556 / 1.0 | 0.444 / 1.0 | 0.667 / 0.51 | 0.611 / 0.73 | 0.333 / 0.51 | |
| | `synonymous_variant` | 47 | 0.404 / 0.24 | 0.340 / 0.040 \* | n/a | 0.489 / 1.0 | 0.574 / 0.38 | |
| | `tss_proximal` | 437 | 0.455 / 0.069 | 0.460 / 0.10 | 0.479 / 0.42 | 0.481 / 0.44 | 0.538 / 0.13 | |
|
|
| </details> |
|
|
| ## Source |
|
|
| Per-tissue files from the [eQTL Catalogue r7 stable release](https://www.ebi.ac.uk/eqtl/) FTP at `ftp://ftp.ebi.ac.uk/pub/databases/spot/eQTL/`, study `QTS000015` (GTEx v8), all 49 GTEx tissue datasets × `ge` quantification. Two files per dataset: |
|
|
| - `*.credible_sets.tsv.gz` — SuSiE credible-set members + PIP. |
| - `*.all.tsv.gz` — full nominal sumstats (every tested variant × gene). Provides the "tested but never reached a credible set" negative pool. |
|
|
| Per-variant `pip` is `max` across the (variant, tissue, gene) rows that mention it. Variants present in `all.tsv.gz` but absent from every credible set are 0-filled (sentinel: "tested, no signal"). Per-variant MAF is the mean across the rows. |
|
|
| ## Provenance |
|
|
| Built by the [`bolinas-dna`](https://github.com/Open-Athena/bolinas-dna) eval pipeline at commit [`1ad4fef7f7`](https://github.com/Open-Athena/bolinas-dna/tree/1ad4fef7f7/snakemake/evals). PR thread: [#167](https://github.com/Open-Athena/bolinas-dna/pull/167). |
|
|
| - Curation pipeline: [`snakemake/evals/`](https://github.com/Open-Athena/bolinas-dna/tree/1ad4fef7f7/snakemake/evals) |
| - Catalogue parser: [`src/bolinas/evals/catalogue_parser.py`](https://github.com/Open-Athena/bolinas-dna/blob/1ad4fef7f7/src/bolinas/evals/catalogue_parser.py) |
| - Labeling cascade: [`src/bolinas/evals/labeling.py`](https://github.com/Open-Athena/bolinas-dna/blob/1ad4fef7f7/src/bolinas/evals/labeling.py) |
| - Matching algorithm: [`src/bolinas/evals/matching.py`](https://github.com/Open-Athena/bolinas-dna/blob/1ad4fef7f7/src/bolinas/evals/matching.py) |
| - Design discussion: [issue #156](https://github.com/Open-Athena/bolinas-dna/issues/156) (iter 33 + round 2 ncRNA bin); eqtl-specific motivation: [issue #165](https://github.com/Open-Athena/bolinas-dna/issues/165) |
|
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