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The Taliban regime was toppled in about two months time, but bin Laden escaped capture, to be found and killed by American special operation forces under Obama’s command a decade later | {
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Bush continued his policy of counterterrorism military operations in Afghanistan, but soon turned his attention towards Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein as the number one national security threat against the United States | {
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Critics say that switch in focus was a key misstep — one that would inform the narrative of Obama’s policy when he took office in 2009 | {
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“While we weren’t looking, al-Qaida has strengthened itself, it’s strengthened the Taliban, it’s strengthened all these local militant outfits,” said South Asia expert Shamila Chaudhary, who advised former secretary of state Hillary Clinton and the late diplomat Richard Holbrooke on Afghanistan and Pakistan during Obam... | {
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The other war — Afghanistan — has posed a different set of dilemmas for the president | {
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The groupthink among Obama’s advisors was that Afghanistan had been left to fester and turn into a full-blown insurgency, said Chaudhary, now a Senior Advisor to the Dean at the School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University | {
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“Afghanistan at that time was the forgotten war,” she said | {
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It was announced just two months after Obama took office in 2009 | {
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The Pak referred to Pakistan, reflecting the idea that success in Afghanistan could not be achieved without a stable Pakistan | {
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And that, went the thinking, would require a far deeper American engagement in Pakistan | {
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To implement the new strategy, Holbrooke was named the special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan (SRAP) , but the status of his portfolio was somewhat ambiguous | {
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Just this week, Obama was reminded of the grim realities of 13 years of military engagement when a man dressed as an Afghan soldier killed a two-star American general, the highest ranking officer killed in combat since 1970, according to the Pentagon | {
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Richard Holbrooke, the U.S. special representative to Pakistan and Afghanistan, listens to a question during a news conference in Islamabad June 19, 2010 | {
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While it was given an office in the State Department, SRAP was never part of any actual chain of command within the administration, a situation that experts would say undermined Holbrooke’s effectiveness | {
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Nonetheless, the legendary diplomat and his team of experts began their work with a sense of mission and of history making | {
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“One of things we recognized then…was that this is a ultimately a political issue within Afghanistan, right? | {
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said Vikram Singh, a counterterrorism expert who was recruited to work for Holbrooke’s team | {
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Singh, currently the Vice President for National Security and International Policy at Center for American Progress, said that idea was the bottom line for their work | {
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“So, while we went in because of terrorism hitting us, Afghanistan’s future depends on some kind of durable political framework that can run that country and resolve disputes peacefully,” he said | {
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In addition to SRAP, Obama turned to senior military officials to get a clear picture of the situation on the ground | {
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He asked then Secretary of Defense Robert Gates to assess U.S. military needs and recommend how many more troops should be deployed | {
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President Barack Obama speaks as then Secretary of Defense Robert Gates (L) listens during a cabinet meeting in the Cabinet Room of the White House on June 22, 2010 | {
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The insider attack, claimed by the Taliban, has raised concerns about the hazards of the president’s exit plan — and the fragility of his Afghan policies | {
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According to experts involved in the new plan — one that turned Bush’s counterterrorism strategy into a counterinsurgency effort — Obama was primarily driven by his goal to end U.S. involvement there | {
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The disillusionment eventually became public when Vali Nasr, a former senior advisor to Holbrooke and now the dean of SAIS at Johns Hopkins University, published his book The Dispensable Nation: American Foreign Policy in Retreat | {
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It was a blunt and scathing account of Nasr’s experience working for the Obama administration, in which he accused the president of forsaking American influence for political expediency | {
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It also accused White House staffers of undermining Holbrooke, and severely weakening American diplomacy | {
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For Stephen Biddle, a professor of political science at George Washington and an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, the president erred when he signed off on the deployment of an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan – and set a firm date for their withdrawal | {
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“There’s a certain arithmetic to counterinsurgency,” Biddle said, who was recruited to help American General Stanley McChrystal, then Commander of ISAF troops in Afghanistan, decide how many more U.S. soldiers would be needed to reverse what was widely seen then as a war America was losing | {
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“You can either conclude the war faster by sending more troops | {
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Or send fewer troops, but let the war run longer,” Biddle said | {
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“What you can’t do is conclude the war fast and not send very many troops and that’s what they decided they wanted to do. | {
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Afghan workers build a combat resupply area while a Chinook CH-47F transport helicopter prepares to land at FOB Salerno, Afghanistan on December 2, 2009 | {
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Obama chose to split the difference of what his military commanders pitched | {
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It was a painful process, according to Gates, who describes a deeply divided administration in his book Duty: A Memoir of a Secretary at War, published earlier this year | {
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Furthermore, a political settlement — believed by Holbrooke to be the key to securing America’s interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan — was nowhere in sight | {
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And Holbrooke’s sudden death at the age of 69 in late 2010 brought the work to a screeching halt | {
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Legacy -Obama’s hesitance to engage in a longer, some would say more thorough, effort in Afghanistan is not atypical of how most modern presidents view foreign engagement, said Daniel Serwer, professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and scholar at the Middle East Institute | {
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“I think it is fair to say that all American presidents since the end of the Cold War have tried to avoid commitments abroad | {
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Obama is not out of the ordinary in this respect,” Serwer said | {
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But what is unusual about this president is his discipline, he said | {
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“Obama really tries to stick to his schedule | {
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He is unusually disciplined in not doing these things,” he said, adding that the president appears to have no qualms about pulling out and leaving places to “their fates. | {
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Graeme Smith, a Kabul-based senior analyst with The International Crisis Group and a former journalist, said there is a clear trend that insurgents are making gains in remote parts of Afghanistan | {
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President Barack Obama arrives for a commencement ceremony at the United States Military Academy at West Point, New York, May 28, 2014 | {
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But there is wide concern that time is running out for U.S. moves in Afghanistan | {
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Biddle said the situation is made worse by the fact the war we now have in Afghanistan is a stalemate militarily | {
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And to simply maintain the status quo as U.S. troops drawdown, the Afghan National Security Forces will need continuous financial backing, the kind of which only the U.S. Congress can provide | {
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And that, said Biddle, will not continue indefinitely | {
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“If this is the state of affairs, then the war becomes a contest of stamina between the Taliban and the U.S. Congress,” he said | {
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“And the Congress is not going to win that race. | {
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Afghanistan is mired a protracted political fight over who will be its next president — a fight being mediated personally by Secretary of State John Kerry who is in Kabul yet again | {
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“Somehow or another you have to have a plan…for how you’re going to bring about negotiated settlement before the Congress defunds the war, the Afghan military collapses and we simply lose,” Biddle said | {
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Case in point: Marjah, a district in southern Helmand province, long a Taliban stronghold, that was cleared in 2010 by NATO and Afghan troops | {
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“And I think the administration has done a poor job of putting together a strategy for bringing about that settlement. | {
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Singh, who was front and center in the Af-Pak effort, frets about the future of Afghanistan | {
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The recent Afghan presidential elections are cause for hope he said, pointing out that the first round went far better than expected | {
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The second round has been compromised by allegations of fraud and a yet to be resolved dispute between the top two candidates | {
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“What we have achieved offers a lot of potential,” Singh said | {
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For his part, the president seems intent on staying the course | {
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“We’re finishing the job we started” more than 12 years ago, Obama said in May, when he announced his latest timetable for withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan | {
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“Insurgents are now operating within about eight kilometers from that district center [Marjah],”said Graeme, adding that violence is on the rise four years later | {
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“You can look at national level data and see quite clearly that more women and children are getting killed and injured this summer than at any period of time since 2001,” he said | {
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Unrest Continues in Ferguson, Missour | {
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US Needs Broad Coalition to Fight IS Militants, Analysts Say-With President Barack Obama setting a new strategy to combat Islamic State militants (also known as ISIL or ISIS) in Iraq and Syria, analysts say he will need to build a broad-based coalition of international and regional players to support those efforts | {
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“Essentially, what Washington is trying to do right now is buy itself some really precious time so that the politics get fixed or at least put on the right track,” he said | {
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“Foreign militaries attacking Arab lands in cahoots with Arab autocrats is a recipe for catastrophe,” said Rami Khouri, director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University in Beirut | {
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He points to the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan that gave birth to al-Qaida | {
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Rami G. Khouri-Groups like al-Qaida and IS, he said, see themselves as trying to protect Muslims from both corrupt dictators and foreign aggressors | {
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“Foreign military intervention creates chaos on the ground,” Khouri said | {
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“It opens up opportunities for people to recruit and train and mobilize and organize | {
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"You have that now happening with the Islamic State and it happened before, on a smaller scale, with al-Qaida in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen,” Khouri said | {
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“You’ve got groups like this in Nigeria, Mali, Somalia and Libya to a smaller extent—and this is a real problem. | {
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“So the fighting that has to take place militarily to contain them and to drive them back and drive them out and finally extinguish them, hopefully, that has to be done mostly by the local people and also, in some cases, with foreign assistance," Khouri said | {
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“There has been some confusion on the part of this administration in terms of what the real objective is,” said Bilal Y. Saab, an expert on Middle East security at the Atlantic Council | {
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"So there definitely is a role for foreign military involvement in close coordination in support of local fighters on the ground. | {
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Regional response-The U.S. coalition so far consists of 10 members: The U.S., Britain, Canada, Australia, Denmark, France, Germany, Poland, Italy and Turkey | {
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The State Department says as many as 40 countries have contributed to U.S. efforts in Iraq in the form of humanitarian aid and donation of arms | {
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The way Khouri sees it, three groups should take the leading role in fighting IS | {
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“One group would be those in the immediate area of the Islamic State--that’s mostly the Sunni tribes of northeastern Syria or northwestern Iraq,” Khouri said | {
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“The second group is the governments in those countries, Iraqi or Syrian," he added | {
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"And the third line is the other governments and other movements in the region who might want to go and help the Iraqis against the Islamic State. | {
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Kurdish Peshmerga forces have been fighting Islamist militants in northern Iraq since June, and Sunni forces have been on the offense since at least mid-August | {
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For the first time last weekend, they took part in a ground operation alongside Iraqi forces, securing a dam that IS militants had been trying to take for weeks | {
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Bilal Y. Saab-“When we talk about defeat, ultimately we really want to talk about defeat of the ideology | {
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After the fall of Saddam Hussein’s government-- and in the wake of their political marginalization by former prime minister Nouri Al-Maliki--thousands of Sunnis joined Islamist militants in Iraq | {
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But many now say they are willing to turn against IS if they are given a voice in the new government of Haider Al-Abadi, who was confirmed this week as prime minister | {
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But in Syria, any U.S. effort against Sunni militants is liable to be seen as helpful to President Bashar Al-Assad | {
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Daniel Benjamin-“There is a lot of loose talk about what it is we might do in Syria,” said Dartmouth College’s Daniel Benjamin, who served as State Department counterterrorism coordinator during the Clinton era | {
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“And it seems to me that government spokesmen have left the door open to a potential punitive strike against leadership elements of ISIS based in Syria," he said | {
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"But I think the chances of any serious cooperation between Washington and Damascus against ISIS is extremely low. | {
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Gulf outreach-The Arab League Monday called for taking drastic action against extremists like IS, but stopped short of expressing support for the U.S. effort | {
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Saudi Arabia announced it will host talks in Jeddah this week with officials from Egypt, Turkey, Jordan and other members of the six-country Gulf Cooperation Council | {
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The United Arab Emirates released a statement last week expressing support for regional and international efforts against terrorism, not just in Iraq and Syria, but wherever it is found | {
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Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have been criticized for their support Sunni rebels against Bashar Al-Assad and for turning a blind eye to the flow of funds from wealthy donors to IS | {
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So it’s beyond the movement of ISIS itself,” Saab said | {
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“Washington has been very critical in private of Saudi Arabia’s failure to really address private terrorist financing from inside the Kingdom to outside groups," said Lori Plotkin Boghardt, an expert in Gulf Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy | {
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“As the Saudis have found out that ISIS is colluding with Saudi citizens inside the country in attacks against national and foreign targets in the country and in assassinations, the Saudis are very interested in cutting down right now on any kind of support to ISIS and other formerly Al-Qaida linked groups,” Boghardt s... | {
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Faysal Itani-The Atlantic Council’s Faysal Itani does not see Gulf countries participating militarily in Syria and Iraq | {
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“Where they have strength or an advantage is in their resources, their financial clout, and in the fact that there has been quite an extensive intelligence outreach between the Saudi and the Qatari security agencies and many of the fighting groups active in Iraq and Syria,” he said | {
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{
"text": "Syria"... | [] |
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