Temporal Concept Drift in Legal Judgment Prediction: Neural Baselines Across Three Epochs of Ukrainian Court Decisions
Paper • 2605.24452 • Published
Datasets:
item_id stringlengths 7 10 | case_name stringlengths 10 151 | respondent stringclasses 54
values | article stringclasses 18
values | violation_label stringclasses 2
values | verdict_free_text stringlengths 772 700k | original_length int64 1.72k 908k | verdict_free_length int64 772 700k | retention_percentage float64 1.4 100 | verdict_removal_method stringclasses 6
values | decision_date stringdate 2005-04-05 00:00:00 2026-05-21 00:00:00 | application_number stringlengths 0 2.18k | importance stringclasses 5
values | ecli stringlengths 0 34 ⌀ | group stringclasses 2
values | bin stringclasses 12
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
001-177429 | CASE OF ADYAN AND OTHERS v. ARMENIA | ARMENIA | 9 | violation | FIRST SECTION
CASE OF ADYAN AND OTHERS v. ARMENIA
(Application no. 75604/11)
JUDGMENT
STRASBOURG
12 October 2017
FINAL
12/01/2018
This judgment has become final under Article 44 § 2 of the Convention. It may be subject to editorial revision. In the case of Adyan and Other... | 69,755 | 65,298 | 93.6 | court_assessment_start+conclusion_scrub | 2017-10-12 | 75604/11 | 1 | ECLI:CE:ECHR:2017:1012JUD007560411 | regular_temporal | 2017 |
001-172654 | CASE OF JEANNEE v. AUSTRIA | AUSTRIA | 6 | violation | FOURTH SECTION
CASE OF JEANNEE v. AUSTRIA
(Application no. 56672/12)
JUDGMENT
STRASBOURG
11 April 2017
This judgment is final but it may be subject to editorial revision. In the case of Jeannée v. Austria,
The European Court of Human Rights (Fourth Section), sitting a... | 13,944 | 10,853 | 77.8 | court_assessment_start+conclusion_scrub | 2017-04-11 | 56672/12 | 4 | ECLI:CE:ECHR:2017:0411JUD005667212 | regular_temporal | 2017 |
001-171484 | CASE OF BAYRAM BAYRAMOV v. AZERBAIJAN | AZERBAIJAN | 11 | violation | FIFTH SECTION
CASE OF BAYRAM BAYRAMOV AND OTHERS v. AZERBAIJAN
(Applications nos. 74609/10 and 5 others – see appended list)
JUDGMENT
STRASBOURG
16 February 2017
This judgment is final but it may be subject to editorial revision. In the case of Bayram Bayramov and Oth... | 44,129 | 9,495 | 21.5 | court_assessment_start | 2017-02-16 | 74609/10;57737/11;67351/11;67977/11;69411/11;69421/11 | 4 | ECLI:CE:ECHR:2017:0216JUD007460910 | regular_temporal | 2017 |
002-11640 | Van Wesenbeeck v. Belgium | BELGIUM | 6 | no_violation | Information Note on the Court’s case-law 207
May 2017
Van Wesenbeeck v. Belgium - 67496/10 and 52936/12
Judgment 23.5.2017 [Section II]
Article 6
Criminal proceedings
Article 6-1
Fair hearing
Equality of arms
Article 6-3-d
Examination of witnesses
Facts – In 2011 the applicant was given a prison sentence for his invo... | 6,361 | 6,112 | 96.1 | no_truncation | 2017-05-23 | 67496/10;52936/12 | 3 | regular_temporal | 2017 | |
002-11747 | Spahić and Others v. Bosnia and Herzegovina | BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA | 6 | violation | Information Note on the Court’s case-law 212
November 2017
Spahić and Others v. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 20514/15, 20528/15, 20774/15 et al. Judgment 14.11.2017 [Section IV]
Article 46
Article 46-2
Execution of judgment
Individual measures
General measures
Respondent State required to take measures to resolve problems ... | 3,943 | 3,275 | 83.1 | court_assessment_start | 2017-11-14 | 20514/15;20528/15;20774/15;20821/15;20847/15;20852/15;20914/15;20921/15;20928/15;20975/15;21141/15;21143/15;21147/15;21224/15;21237/15;21239/15 | 3 | regular_temporal | 2017 | |
001-170656 | CASE OF RASHKOVA AND SIMEONSKA v. BULGARIA | BULGARIA | 1 | violation | FIFTH SECTION
CASE OF RASHKOVA AND SIMEONSKA v. BULGARIA
(Application no. 41090/12)
JUDGMENT
STRASBOURG
2 February 2017
This judgment is final but it may be subject to editorial revision. In the case of Rashkova and Simeonska v. Bulgaria,
The European Court of Human... | 16,670 | 12,326 | 73.9 | court_assessment_start+conclusion_scrub | 2017-02-02 | 41090/12 | 4 | ECLI:CE:ECHR:2017:0202JUD004109012 | regular_temporal | 2017 |
001-175143 | CASE OF T.G. v. CROATIA | CROATIA | 6 | violation | SECOND SECTION
CASE OF T.G. v. CROATIA
(Application no. 39701/14)
JUDGMENT
STRASBOURG
11 July 2017
FINAL
11/10/2017
This judgment has become final under Article 44 § 2 of the Convention. It may be subject to editorial revision. In the case of T.G. v. Croatia,
The European Cou... | 47,392 | 40,048 | 84.5 | court_assessment_start | 2017-07-11 | 39701/14 | 3 | ECLI:CE:ECHR:2017:0711JUD003970114 | regular_temporal | 2017 |
001-172459 | CASE OF THUO v. CYPRUS | CYPRUS | 3 | violation | "THIRD SECTION\n \n \n \n \n \n \nCASE OF THUO v. CYPRUS\n \n(Application no. 3869/07)\n \n(...TRUNCATED) | 90,250 | 83,601 | 92.6 | court_assessment_start+conclusion_scrub | 2017-04-04 | 3869/07 | 4 | ECLI:CE:ECHR:2017:0404JUD000386907 | regular_temporal | 2017 |
002-11446 | Güzelyurtlu and Others v. Cyprus and Turkey | CYPRUS AND TURKEY | 2 | violation | "Information Note on the Court’s case-law 206\nApril 2017\nGüzelyurtlu and Others v. Cyprus and T(...TRUNCATED) | 7,089 | 6,781 | 95.7 | court_assessment_start | 2017-04-04 | 36925/07 | 2 | regular_temporal | 2017 | |
001-177299 | CASE OF REGNER v. THE CZECH REPUBLIC | CZECH REPUBLIC | 6 | no_violation | "GRAND CHAMBER\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \nCASE OF REGNER v. THE CZECH REPUBLIC\n \n(Application n(...TRUNCATED) | 264,424 | 106,302 | 40.2 | court_assessment_start+conclusion_scrub | 2017-09-19 | 35289/11 | 1 | ECLI:CE:ECHR:2017:0919JUD003528911 | regular_temporal | 2017 |
End of preview. Expand in Data Studio
echr-livehrb-temporal-2k
Temporally binned evaluation split for LiveHumanRightsBench (ECtHR human-rights judgment prediction). Two temporal contamination-control axes, built from verdict-free (contamination-controlled) ECtHR text.
- regular_temporal (1000): ex-Ukraine cases from
overthelex/echr-verdict-free, binned by decision year over 2017-2026 (100/bin), round-robin stratified by respondent country. Supports per-model pre/post training-cutoff analysis and temporal-drift plots (arXiv:2605.24452). - ukr_temporal (1000): from
overthelex/echr-ukr-verdict-free, split at Russia's full-scale invasion (2022-02-24): 500 pre / 500 post, round-robin by ECHR article -> geopolitical-shift axis.
Natural violation/no-violation base rate preserved (base-rate balancing is a separate task). Public HUDOC sources only -> redistributable. Seed=42.
Columns
item_id, case_name, respondent, article, violation_label, verdict_free_text, decision_date, application_number, importance, ecli, group (regular_temporal | ukr_temporal), bin (year string | pre_2022 | post_2022), plus length fields.
Changelog
v1.1 (2026-07-03) — leakage audit and fixes (same pass as echr-livehrb-static-2k):
- Conclusion scrub: 789 verdict-revealing sentences removed across 735 rows
(patterns like "there has been (a|no) violation of Article X",
"the Court finds/concludes that there has been...", "unanimously, that...").
Before the fix, 111 rows (5.5%) leaked the gold label for their own target
article. Affected rows carry a
+conclusion_scrubsuffix inverdict_removal_method;verdict_free_length/retention_percentagerecomputed. respondentfilled asUKRAINEfor all rows in theukr_temporalgroup (was null).- Bin integrity re-verified after fix: year bins match
decision_dateexactly; pre/post split is exact at 2022-02-24.
v1.0 (2026-07-02) — initial release.
Usage
from datasets import load_dataset
ds = load_dataset("overthelex/echr-livehrb-temporal-2k", split="train")
# per-year drift on regular cases
y2024 = ds.filter(lambda r: r["group"] == "regular_temporal" and r["bin"] == "2024")
# Ukraine pre/post full-scale invasion
ukr_pre = ds.filter(lambda r: r["bin"] == "pre_2022")
ukr_post = ds.filter(lambda r: r["bin"] == "post_2022")
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