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2009-03-11 02:08:23
2023-04-19 22:13:58
George_Friedman
conv_2520#26400
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "Poland has two historic enemies: Germany and Russia. It’s unsurprising that Poland doesn’t want a peace agreement. For them, the errant missile fire last week was a reminder of the threat Russia still poses. https://t.co/lqsKD1Vgpp" }, { "speaker": "OTHER", "text":...
2022-10-27T20:35:11+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_4900#26401
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "Gallup CEO Jon Clifton's book “Blind Spot: The Global Rise of Unhappiness and How Leaders Missed It” is a worthwhile read. Income cannot address the sadness of living in a world that has become a stranger to you. Jon opens the door to a consideration of what the good life is."...
2022-09-16T15:25:50+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_1960#26402
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "During WWII, one needed to say only “the war” for others to know what was being discussed. We have reached that point with the Russo-Ukrainian war. No one would have believed Ukraine could survive the Russian onslaught in the first months. But it did. https://t.co/36sfuCkDYA" ...
2022-08-15T13:18:34+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_6682#26403
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "In addition, early intervention in wars will save American lives, while late interventions will cost them. And finally, in all wars there is a threat to the Atlantic and therefore to the homeland." }, { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "The U.S. drew several conclusions ...
2022-07-28T18:56:04+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_6234#26404
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "The war in Ukraine has entered a complex new phase as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has fired his security chief and other officials, alleging treason. General corruption is one thing. The invocation of treason is quite another. https://t.co/m2xeIBlUDx" }, { ...
2022-06-28T17:18:06+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_9956#26405
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "The economic war with Russia has created worldwide instability, including in terms of commodities. This is the war that I suspect will ultimately decide what happens, whether Russia in some way capitulates or not." }, { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "Throughout the 2...
2022-06-20T16:01:17+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_4660#26406
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "Tomorrow, I leave for Poland and Hungary; two countries which must formulate complex calculations to manage Russian and American strategic imperatives. Neither wants to be occupied by Russia, but neither wants to become a pawn in another chapter of European grand strategy." }...
2022-06-08T00:37:15+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_1747#26407
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "French President Emmanuel Macron has said that an off-ramp must be found for Putin in Ukraine. An off-ramp for Putin is an illusion. He cannot reach a peace agreement until he demonstrates – convincingly and not by his assertion – that his initial failures have been recovered....
2022-06-01T19:27:40+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_9889#26408
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "The United States recently said that it would defend Taiwan in the event China invades it. More interesting is that Japan, a country that hasn’t undertaken military action since 1945, said the same. This changes the political environment dramatically." }, { "speaker": "...
2022-05-09T18:35:39+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_8490#26409
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "One of Russia's initial claims for invading Ukraine was that the country was corrupt and riven with Nazis. \n\nFor Moscow - home of the oligarchs - to clutch its pearls over corruption deserves a chuckle; Moscow attacking another country because of corruption deserves another....
2022-04-24T20:32:19+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_6083#26410
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "The war in Ukraine is having reverberations around the world. There are many reverberations to discuss. Today we'll focus on three areas: Poland and Turkey taking on greater significance as a result of the war, and China losing significance. https://t.co/OUElY9bptz" }, { ...
2022-04-05T13:18:09+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_3613#26411
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "The important question was always how Europe would react, specifically Germany, to a Russian resurgence. Continuing our look back at my 2009 book \"The Next 100 Years\" as a means understanding the crisis in Ukraine, here is more from Chapter 4: The New Fault Lines\n#TheNext10...
2022-03-30T18:33:23+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_6642#26412
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "The Russians are now claiming that their only intention in the war was to secure the eastern Donbas region, not to occupy Ukraine. What made the Russian claims dubious, of course, were the columns of tanks heading south from Belarus toward Kyiv, among other things." }, { ...
2022-03-27T14:03:46+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_4091#26413
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "@VictorTheClean3 @TheSuperbubble In the case of Ukraine, the price for Russia is high and the longer the war goes on, the weaker Russia gets and it can’t afford that price indefinitely." }, { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "The U.S.' war in Afghanistan did not threaten ...
2022-03-22T17:39:51+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_6779#26414
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "If Russia wanted to create a sense in Europe that it could invade at will, it has failed. It has only succeeded at bringing the U.S. and Europe closer. The continued combat and the brutality that Russia seems to think are required to defeat Ukraine only galvanizes it more." }...
2022-03-17T15:49:35+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_6427#26415
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "The U.S. and China met for 7 hours with few details released. What is clear is this is the time for China to construct a new relationship with the U.S. China no longer sees Russia as a full counter weight to the U.S., and Beijing’s treaty with Russia just lowered in importance...
2022-03-11T19:37:36+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_7138#26416
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "When Putin took power, wealth was in the hands of a dozen or so oligarchs, and the economy and Russian power depended on energy, which was the source of revenue and leverage over nations reliant on Russian supplies. In many ways, Russia was like Saudi Arabia in the 1970s." },...
2022-03-08T14:29:45+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_8745#26417
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "Rather than a rapid and decisive defeat of Ukraine, Russia is engaged in a slow, grinding war unlikely to impress the world with its return to the first ranks of military power." }, { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "Russia seems undeterred by sanctions. The measures wi...
2022-03-05T15:24:27+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_1218#26418
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "China is far more the economic animal, basing its internal system on financial and productive systems. As such, it is the largest exporter in the world. The US’ imposition of some tariffs was troubling. The imposition of a sanction system could be catastrophic." }, { "...
2022-03-03T13:59:39+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_3966#26419
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "Russia has put itself in a bad position. The fragmentation of Europe is no longer possible. Even if it defeats Ukraine, it will be that much closer to a hostile Europe, led by a newly remilitarized Germany." }, { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "Central to all calculati...
2022-02-28T21:04:56+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_9831#26420
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "@durnhamuk1990 Germany hasn’t lived up to it’s NATO obligations in years. Therefore a willingness to do so is a massive shift. It may not seem like much but it is." }, { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "The decision of #Germany to massively rearm changes the entire dynam...
2022-02-27T17:26:28+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_8498#26421
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "An attempt to enter the Ukrainian capital with motorized infantry is likely to fail, as appeared to happen Sunday in Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv." }, { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "throughout the city for more than a day. But most of what we see around K...
2022-02-27T17:24:05+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_5412#26422
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "Russian and Ukrainian forces for days have been engaged in what appear to be fierce skirmishes in the northwest and western edges of Kyiv. There have been reports of small Russian units, potentially special operations forces, sowing confusion and engaging in running gunbattles...
2022-02-25T20:53:27+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_8352#26423
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "The problem was that there were no divisions within Ukraine proper to exploit, nor any conflicts in which to intervene. For Russia, Ukraine was too urgent a matter to be treated like the others." }, { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "There was an outbreak of political v...
2022-02-24T20:11:00+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_9607#26424
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "During the first phase of a full scale invasion the first\nthing the Russians would do is isolate the Ukrainian leadership and take down all internal communications. That has apparently not happened, as information is flowing. Communications have not been brought down." }, ...
2022-02-22T18:50:58+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_2267#26425
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "Russia has officially ordered soldiers into Donetsk and Luhansk, and though this certainly increases the sense of crisis, it must also be put in context. The region has effectively been under Russian control since the aftermath of the 2014 Maidan revolution." }, { "spe...
2022-02-11T20:59:39+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_5654#26426
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "Listen to my latest on the Russia/Ukraine crisis with John Batchelor @batchelorshow" }, { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "Global crises have the fine patina of subtlety coupled with dishonesty. They aren’t the sole domain of Washington and Moscow, but for my money, ther...
2022-01-25T17:14:09+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_4381#26427
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "Above all else, what the Russians want is to have their sphere of influence, as the Americans do, so that no one enters to threaten them. What comes out of this is a weakened EU with foreign business opportunities, which Russia can then take advantage of." }, { "speake...
2021-12-27T21:45:07+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_3529#26428
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "If you liked my newest book, The Storm Before the Calm, consider buying a copy as a gift this holiday season. If you didn't like my book, consider buying it for your least favorite friend this holiday season." }, { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "Horrendous wars occur...
2021-12-16T19:46:26+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_5587#26429
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "The degree to which the battle against COVID-19 has changed our lives, the economy and social norms has been staggering. The possibility of the virus mutating means continual adjustments to or reinventions of vaccines, and more. https://t.co/66Jfs8GKcM" }, { "speaker": ...
2021-12-09T17:03:08+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_1906#26430
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "Pearl Harbor led to the reasonable belief that an enemy might strike at any time, and that the U.S. and others must be on continual standby alert. It fundamentally transformed the American understanding of the dangers that are present in the world." }, { "speaker": "SEL...
2021-11-30T21:40:46+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_5156#26431
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "There is no life that isn’t flawed, but those who focus only on the failures are themselves guilty of at least poor judgment, and at most malicious intent. A life must be judged on the whole & the discovery of flaws must confirm their humanity, not cause us to want to eras...
2021-11-09T16:35:59+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_1488#26432
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "This week’s elections in the US signaled a counterattack being launched at the progressives. Its left President Biden with a ruling party that has the thinnest congressional majority & is internally split. It's not clear that Biden will have the power to govern later in hi...
2021-11-02T18:28:53+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_5200#26433
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "Dwight Eisenhower’s aversion to using military force is interesting and worth considering in light of Afghanistan and other conflicts. He provided a framework for thinking about how to move beyond the forever wars we have fought. \nhttps://t.co/Lo8EuIzOAY" }, { "speake...
2021-10-19T18:15:16+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_8865#26434
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "China has the world’s second largest #GDP. But on a per capita basis, it ranks just 75th in the world. This explains much of #China’s behavior, like keeping zombie companies afloat and developing the interior through the Belt and Road Initiative. https://t.co/Ig2z970cpD" }, ...
2021-09-28T14:49:53+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_4831#26435
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "By 1900, the United States was producing half the manufactured goods in the world. American innovation seemed to portend U.S. economic domination of the world. What, after all, could stop us?\nWhat stopped us was World War I. https://t.co/L4AaS0sZZG" }, { "speaker": "SE...
2021-09-07T13:07:55+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_5852#26436
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "#Germany's economy is really exposed to any shifts in the international market. The largest #economy in Europe is not really in control of its own economy. In that sense it's the most dangerous country in Europe because it's the most important country and incredibly vulnerable....
2021-08-17T19:16:52+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_4390#26437
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "The world has grown used to U.S. military intervention. But the US has to control where and how it goes to war. And its notion of victory includes the moral transformation of ancient people who do not think they are immoral. https://t.co/yyvAS58Pt9 https://t.co/ShbARsYsyc" ...
2021-07-28T16:12:22+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_1019#26438
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "There are constraints and imperatives that all leaders must come to grips with. I explained what really makes a good leader in an interview with @brainbarcom. https://t.co/5rgw6tVLtT" }, { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "The founders wanted society, not the government, ...
2021-07-22T16:27:05+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_3741#26439
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "Asked last week about COVID-19 disinformation on social media, President Biden said Facebook is killing Americans. We have now reached the point where presidents confront social media companies as enemies potentially more powerful than they are. https://t.co/GdMguTDJGF" }, ...
2021-07-13T17:57:32+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_7397#26440
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "Looking at the economy as a whole, China is impressive. In per capita GDP, it is another matter. https://t.co/9qh41DUjNm https://t.co/RO645I4OZE" }, { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "During the #ColdWar, the Soviets incurred costs that could not be sustained as they li...
2021-06-29T18:38:35+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_9163#26441
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "The resurrection of critical theory takes political issues as merely a means of transforming the psyche. The object has been to change what we think and how we organize our thoughts. We must recognize the corruption in our minds so our lives can change. https://t.co/zVNbrdHzEf...
2021-06-04T17:45:33+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_6807#26442
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has issued a warning to Europe, telling its leaders that Russia will respond if they continue to press east. His recent speech also spoke to those who hoped that the situation in Belarus would simply go away. https://t.co/ofAknSxY6X" }, ...
2021-05-11T17:01:24+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_5655#26443
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "There has been a massive shift in reproduction patterns, as children have become fiendishly expensive. A middle-class family in the city with a large number of children faces tremendous economic challenges. Oftentimes, the impulse to reproduce is tempered by economic reality."...
2021-04-27T16:12:36+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_1228#26444
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "Having lived in Texas for a quarter-century, I will never be seen as a Texan, as I have no ancestors who died at the Alamo. Few states in the union revere the memory of their birth as much as Texas. But then, Texas won the revolution and became an independent nation." }, { ...
2021-04-12T15:11:35+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_2434#26445
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "Former President Donald Trump was accused of undermining the principles of a rules-based international order by imposing tariffs on #China and questioning the value of #NATO. But was there ever a rules-based international order or was it an illusion? https://t.co/t9CzXP2zWV" ...
2021-04-02T17:15:16+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_9508#26446
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "The importance of the #SuezCanal has been made clear by the Ever Given, the ship that was until Monday stuck in the canal, creating a worldwide traffic jam. The Suez is open for business again, but in some ways the damage is already done. https://t.co/26xC6oBB5d" }, { ...
2021-03-24T16:35:05+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_3167#26447
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "Any time there is a new U.S. president, major powers set out to test him and lay the groundwork for future bargaining in potential conflicts. This is the case with recent collapses in diplomacy between the U.S., China, and Russia. https://t.co/39chFppWTe" }, { "speaker"...
2021-03-08T00:00:05+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_9368#26448
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "The American public tends to resist government instructions and has a robust sense of distrust. It is very good at breaking the rules to find new ways of doing things. This is its virtue, and it – as with most virtues – is likely to become a vice. https://t.co/fge2pfyd08" },...
2021-02-25T16:50:03+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_8192#26449
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "The Middle East is at the moment a radically different place than it was during Obama’s or Trump’s terms. Now Biden must consider not only the nuclear deal and Iran but also the coalition that Israel has formed. https://t.co/qD1Of6vKfE" }, { "speaker": "OTHER", "tex...
2021-02-18T16:25:03+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_3927#26450
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "Cuba has always frightened the United States, long before Fidel Castro and Che Guevara ever did. Key West has been a site of naval installations and where exercises were held. I’d go so far as to say that if Key West isn’t secure, the U.S. isn’t either. https://t.co/rC39P8nbnz...
2021-02-02T22:40:03+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_2214#26451
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "The Greek word for a private person was “idiotes,” meaning much the same as our “idiot.” This did not mean private life was pursued only by idiots, but rather that the private person failed to elevate himself toward the moral excellency of serving a city. https://t.co/QqDMRTPJS...
2021-01-22T16:20:02+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_7429#26452
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "After November's U.S. presidential election, I spoke on the @Gallup podcast to assess the deep, profound division in the country and how this moment fits into a larger, cyclical nature of economic and social crises in the U.S. https://t.co/lSbOQTULRM" }, { "speaker": "S...
2021-01-14T19:05:03+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_1691#26453
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "I long for a lost world in which reasonable people could disagree over politics and still be friends. Donald Trump did not rip friendships apart; we did that to ourselves. I love this country. It is time for its citizens to get a grip." }, { "speaker": "OTHER", "te...
2020-12-22T17:25:03+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_2333#26454
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "The U.S. defeated the Japanese at Midway because it broke the Japanese code. It lost the fleet at Pearl Harbor because it lacked spies and codebreakers. Buried in the many noble and virtuous lessons in the Bible is that war depends on good intelligence. https://t.co/hdRBBNcdFf...
2020-12-13T16:50:02+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_1272#26455
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "The 2020 U.S. presidential election is not the first to result in allegations of corruption. I'm sure John Quincy Adams and Andrew Jackson are still duking it out in the afterlife over who stole the election of 1824. https://t.co/hbCiqhzyTY" }, { "speaker": "OTHER", ...
2020-12-02T20:00:18+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_8263#26456
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "On Thanksgiving we give thanks for our children and grandchildren, though there will be no family gathering this year. It is truly a family holiday for us, for my wife is a descendent of William Bradford, who was the first governor of Plymouth Colony. https://t.co/2YEH4PAYiN" ...
2020-11-23T23:30:04+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_5243#26457
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "Strategic depth is vital for Russia in the very long term. It has not solved its core problems by strategic maneuvers, however useful. Without a transformation of its economy, it continues to be in crisis. https://t.co/JBm5LCSXZD" }, { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "I'...
2020-11-12T18:30:07+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_2947#26458
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "Every profession demands that you surrender something of profound interest and pleasure. My profession demands that I give up the pleasure of having opinions. The self-evident virtue of the Yankees is granted me. Judging nations and politicians is not. https://t.co/ejFQ2iGheG"...
2020-11-04T15:35:03+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_4091#26459
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "In less than a week, the United States will elect a president for the 59th time in its history. To me, the hatred and contempt we show our fellow citizens who might once have been friends is more troubling than the political passion. https://t.co/jwKCT3oz2M" }, { "speak...
2020-10-27T16:30:08+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_3011#26460
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "The fundamental problem of social media is anonymity. Anyone can say anything and walk away. It was an efficient plan that now meets antitrust laws. Google created a search engine that mapped out the internet, while also claiming they were not responsible for their content." ...
2020-10-19T00:05:01+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_8936#26461
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "No relationships in the Caucasus are fixed in stone. No doors are locked, but a war there cannot be waged intensely without the support of Russia or Turkey. In that sense, fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh is, much like Syria and Libya, another dimension of the Russo-Turkish rivalr...
2020-10-01T19:40:03+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_8088#26462
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the geopolitically relevant Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave inside #Azerbaijan, has been beset by low-level, intermittent skirmishes. The most recent round reportedly has resulted in hundreds of casualties. https://t.co/375kevWl9t" }, { ...
2020-09-15T15:35:20+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_5234#26463
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "September 11th holds different meanings for different people. And since then, a generation has emerged that has no memory of 9/11. Whatever errors were made in the following years of war, there was no second 9/11 in America. https://t.co/nsrkyZwbbN" }, { "speaker": "OT...
2020-09-03T18:35:03+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_6693#26464
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "In my book #TheStormBeforetheCalm, I predicted that one of the main battles of the next cycle would be the future of the #university. The #coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the timetable dramatically, and the crisis is now. https://t.co/HA8EbDpyKf" }, { "speaker": "...
2020-08-19T16:55:07+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_6952#26465
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "There are deep social & cultural divisions in the nation. Donald Trump did not create these divisions; rather, he emerged from them. But the current political debate reveals the great danger in being passionate: the loss of a sense of proportion, reflection and flexibility....
2020-07-23T19:04:37+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_5391#26466
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "Historically, #China’s great battles have been waged in China against the Chinese (or the Mongols). This was dictated by #geography. Power projection has always been too difficult and risky. #GPF #geopolitics https://t.co/pou3dbIF9C" }, { "speaker": "SELF", "text":...
2020-06-18T15:40:26+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_5388#26467
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "As Mark Twain famously put it, “History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” We cannot predict everything about life, but we can grasp the pattern that grips us and within which we struggle to live. https://t.co/TbP5atx6Yh" }, { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "T...
2020-05-28T16:25:04+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_1219#26468
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "How #COVID19 evolves depends on the successes and failures of medical research. “Do no harm” is an admirable and desirable principle, but moral absolutes may not be as useful right now as the principle of calculated risk. https://t.co/eo9dBN91S7" }, { "speaker": "OTHER"...
2020-05-05T16:10:07+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_3090#26469
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "The #coronavirus crisis has entered a new phase. In many parts of the world, people are ignoring #socialdistancing and quarantine rules. The U.S. government, facing economic and social pressures, is shifting the tempo of its response. https://t.co/Muzmck3Kyo" }, { "spea...
2020-04-16T15:35:09+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_6130#26470
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "The supply chain bound together the U.S. and China; two countries that did not simply have an interest in free #trade but an interest in advantageous trade. And then all hell broke loose with the coronavirus. https://t.co/knpey2UUrL" }, { "speaker": "OTHER", "text"...
2020-03-31T17:35:06+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_3331#26471
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "One of the most important consequences of the #coronavirus pandemic is that borders are becoming barriers. Movement of services and people has now been interrupted all across Europe, and between the U.S.-Canada border. https://t.co/tr4D4PfhRL" }, { "speaker": "SELF",...
2020-03-19T16:45:08+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_9260#26472
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "No matter how automated the #supplychain has become, it is staffed by people who deliver products to people. Warehouses still employ human workers. It is not that the #quarantine is ineffective; it’s that it runs counter to the principles of its intent. - GF" }, { "spe...
2020-03-05T14:35:09+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_4309#26473
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "#Canada's conflicts are usually contained in a predictable framework. But will its internal crisis over First Nations’ objections to a #naturalgas pipeline in British Columbia break out of this framework? https://t.co/N5o1Doz0oZ" }, { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "A ...
2020-02-11T16:10:07+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_4735#26474
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "The public expects a competence-based government to produce miracles, and when disappointed, the public can turn vicious. #China's President Xi Jinping sold himself as ultra-competent. Events such as the #coronavirus outbreak eat ultra-competence alive. https://t.co/JafR7Xqd6F...
2020-01-24T21:25:04+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_9698#26475
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced constitutional changes that could lay a path for him to hold on to power beyond 2024. He also wants to change the perception of Poland from a victim nation to a historical aggressor. https://t.co/WKcd2EqHdp" }, { "speaker"...
2020-01-23T17:05:13+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_7574#26476
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "With catastrophic events in #Iran and #Libya, it is prudent to consider their current state, after the panic, and to consider other panic-ridden global processes. What, after all, happened to China and #Brexit? https://t.co/2QmI9KhuLz" }, { "speaker": "OTHER", "text...
2020-01-06T15:15:40+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_2228#26477
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "#Soleimani #Iran #Iraq https://t.co/6zBE83kpMS https://t.co/yoBRVJvOod" }, { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "The Russians do not want their proxies defeated. But the Russians also cannot afford to alienate Turkey, because Turkey can hurt Russia in the Caucasus, Black Se...
2019-12-18T16:05:08+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_1078#26478
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "There are times when electoral politics reveals something of the underlying reality of a nation. That's the case in Israel now. The nation is so divided on issues so fundamental to the nature of Israel that the normal political process has frozen & a crisis is being reveale...
2019-12-02T18:40:05+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_6594#26479
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "Leaked government documents describe in detail a broad Chinese assault that has been underway for several years on the ethnic minority Uighur community in the western province of Xinjiang. Beijing clearly wants to break the back of Islam in the province. - GF" }, { "sp...
2019-11-11T22:25:03+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_7530#26480
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "@KerimliTelman @GPFutures Again, the Russian expansion is made to appear far more substantial than it is. Arabs and Turkey have a long term tension since the Ottomans. Russia is fishing in this breach with some limited success but nothing that changes the system decisively." ...
2019-09-17T14:59:28+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_1993#26481
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "An extraordinary coalition has emerged with the support of the U.S., bringing together Israel, #Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni states. It is a threat to Iranian interests. If #Iran's sphere of influence collapses, its western border becomes once again exposed. - GF" }, { ...
2019-09-16T18:26:24+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_3141#26482
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "@aje430150 @GPFutures Thank you for reading, Mitchell. We’re closely monitoring what’s going on and will let you know what’s coming next." }, { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "We @GPFutures have long regarded the expansion of Iranian influence on a bridge from Iran to ...
2019-09-09T15:05:08+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_1727#26483
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "There are deep social & cultural divisions in the nation. Donald Trump did not create these divisions; rather, he emerged from them. But the current political debate reveals the great danger in being passionate: the loss of a sense of proportion, reflection and flexibility....
2019-07-24T14:37:11+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_9017#26484
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "The most definitive role the #BlackSea has played has been as an arena of war, or at least an adjunct to the war raging on the land around it. And though there is no war on its waters right now, the Bosporus is constantly at risk. - GF" }, { "speaker": "OTHER", "te...
2019-05-28T21:30:14+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_7129#26485
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "In the past, as during Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, U.S. strategy would be to use main force to block #Iran. But the new strategy is the U.S. now wants to rely on regional powers to act when it is in their interests to do so, rather than to take direct action itself. - GF" }, ...
2019-04-22T13:53:21+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_1986#26486
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "@rousso 1/2: Globalizatoin is not new in spite of common believe. Since the 16th century and the European entry into the western hemisphere, there has been a global system. Wealth flowed to Iberia, built European empires supplementing the China-India-Europe trade route." }, ...
2019-04-07T16:50:52+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_8016#26487
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "Britain has a very different economic & political culture than the Continent, as well as a different history. Leaving other matters aside, it does not fit into Europe; the attempt at bridging this gap has led to the worst political crisis in Britain since the fall of Franc...
2019-03-27T21:29:16+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_8840#26488
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "(2/3)...against both internal regimes and external powers. Given the miltiary reality, random acts of terrorism are being used. Therefore, at this point, the prmary source of terrorism is from the Islamic world..." }, { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "All Muslims are no...
2019-03-04T13:55:11+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_8983#26489
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "The founders of the U.S. government created a system that usually, except in extreme emergencies, is incapable of doing anything well. And for that reason, because of the nature of the regime we have, the rest of the country's not terrified of what Washington's going to do. - G...
2019-02-05T16:10:23+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_7005#26490
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "As long as illegal immigration is permitted, the foundations of American culture are at risk. It is not simply immigration, but the illegality that is frightening, because it not only can’t be controlled, but also the law is under attack by those who claim to uphold it. - GF" ...
2019-01-06T20:36:10+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_1285#26491
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "Humans cycle between complacency and fear. When the time for fear comes, we magnify the threat. It’s a natural response; after all, when things go wrong, we humans need all the energy we can muster to face it, and terror is the most powerful of feelings. - GF" }, { "s...
2018-12-20T17:02:33+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_8994#26492
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "The G-20 summit opened in Buenos Aires today. As with many summits, while the main event is almost always meaningless, the drama, the rumors and the salacious speculation about what’s being said behind closed doors can be instructive. #G20 - @GPFutures https://t.co/J91Y0Vv6Sc h...
2018-11-28T19:17:33+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_4683#26493
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "In Washington D.C. and meeting up with some of our @GPFutures subscribers tonight for dinner and discussion on global issues. - GF" }, { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "@Laszlobekes Incredible. What year did you cross the Tisza?" }, { "speaker": "OTHER", "...
2018-09-26T13:26:07+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_2012#26494
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "In Budapest. Amazing how little Hungarians at all levels seem to be effected by the EU condemnation. Just doesn't seem to matter to most of them, except for speculating on Orban's next move. EU's moral power is not what it thinks it is. - GF" }, { "speaker": "OTHER", ...
2018-09-14T17:21:42+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_6134#26495
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "@tomworthjr Erdogan has always been hostile to Assad. He also has always refused to get militarily involved. Good move. The relationship with Russia has less to do with the Syrian situation but the fact that Erdogan is very distrustful of the US intentions." }, { "spea...
2018-09-11T17:08:24+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_1087#26496
twitter
[ { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "All of us are flawed in many ways and all of us hold opinions others dislike. Compared to the towering courage of getting up and going into harms way, opinions and comments matter little. - GF" }, { "speaker": "SELF", "text": "John McCain's greatness was in his will...
2018-08-29T18:02:58+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_5945#26497
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "As we get closer the threats will get more lurid. But neither side can afford a total breakdown and the British can't live with Brussels governance. Somewhere in there is the last minute deal, with endless drama until then. - GF" }, { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": ...
2018-08-20T13:53:30+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_8803#26498
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "Interesting the way that the dollar is rising. After all is said and done, the dollar is where you go when trouble breaks out. Even the euro is falling relative to the dollar. - GF" }, { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "...Governments can make this worse under pressur...
2018-08-06T18:30:21+00:00
George_Friedman
conv_7403#26499
twitter
[ { "speaker": "OTHER", "text": "#Turkey has frozen the assets (in Turkey) of two US cabinet members. Is Turkey willing to forego the US, and deal with Russian and Iran on its own? The accumulation of gestures is really becoming an issue that can't be dismissed. - GF" }, { "speaker": "SELF", "text...
2018-08-02T19:25:06+00:00