user_id stringclasses 269
values | chunk_id stringlengths 12 15 | platform stringclasses 1
value | content listlengths 2 5 | timestamp stringdate 2009-03-11 02:08:23 2023-04-19 22:13:58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
George_Friedman | conv_2520#26400 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "Poland has two historic enemies: Germany and Russia. It’s unsurprising that Poland doesn’t want a peace agreement. For them, the errant missile fire last week was a reminder of the threat Russia still poses. https://t.co/lqsKD1Vgpp"
},
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text":... | 2022-10-27T20:35:11+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_4900#26401 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "Gallup CEO Jon Clifton's book “Blind Spot: The Global Rise of Unhappiness and How Leaders Missed It” is a worthwhile read. Income cannot address the sadness of living in a world that has become a stranger to you. Jon opens the door to a consideration of what the good life is."... | 2022-09-16T15:25:50+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_1960#26402 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "During WWII, one needed to say only “the war” for others to know what was being discussed. We have reached that point with the Russo-Ukrainian war. No one would have believed Ukraine could survive the Russian onslaught in the first months. But it did. https://t.co/36sfuCkDYA"
... | 2022-08-15T13:18:34+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_6682#26403 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "In addition, early intervention in wars will save American lives, while late interventions will cost them. And finally, in all wars there is a threat to the Atlantic and therefore to the homeland."
},
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "The U.S. drew several conclusions ... | 2022-07-28T18:56:04+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_6234#26404 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "The war in Ukraine has entered a complex new phase as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has fired his security chief and other officials, alleging treason. General corruption is one thing. The invocation of treason is quite another. https://t.co/m2xeIBlUDx"
},
{
... | 2022-06-28T17:18:06+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_9956#26405 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "The economic war with Russia has created worldwide instability, including in terms of commodities. This is the war that I suspect will ultimately decide what happens, whether Russia in some way capitulates or not."
},
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "Throughout the 2... | 2022-06-20T16:01:17+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_4660#26406 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "Tomorrow, I leave for Poland and Hungary; two countries which must formulate complex calculations to manage Russian and American strategic imperatives. Neither wants to be occupied by Russia, but neither wants to become a pawn in another chapter of European grand strategy."
}... | 2022-06-08T00:37:15+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_1747#26407 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "French President Emmanuel Macron has said that an off-ramp must be found for Putin in Ukraine. An off-ramp for Putin is an illusion. He cannot reach a peace agreement until he demonstrates – convincingly and not by his assertion – that his initial failures have been recovered.... | 2022-06-01T19:27:40+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_9889#26408 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "The United States recently said that it would defend Taiwan in the event China invades it. More interesting is that Japan, a country that hasn’t undertaken military action since 1945, said the same. This changes the political environment dramatically."
},
{
"speaker": "... | 2022-05-09T18:35:39+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_8490#26409 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "One of Russia's initial claims for invading Ukraine was that the country was corrupt and riven with Nazis. \n\nFor Moscow - home of the oligarchs - to clutch its pearls over corruption deserves a chuckle; Moscow attacking another country because of corruption deserves another.... | 2022-04-24T20:32:19+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_6083#26410 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "The war in Ukraine is having reverberations around the world. There are many reverberations to discuss. Today we'll focus on three areas: Poland and Turkey taking on greater significance as a result of the war, and China losing significance. https://t.co/OUElY9bptz"
},
{
... | 2022-04-05T13:18:09+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_3613#26411 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "The important question was always how Europe would react, specifically Germany, to a Russian resurgence. Continuing our look back at my 2009 book \"The Next 100 Years\" as a means understanding the crisis in Ukraine, here is more from Chapter 4: The New Fault Lines\n#TheNext10... | 2022-03-30T18:33:23+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_6642#26412 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "The Russians are now claiming that their only intention in the war was to secure the eastern Donbas region, not to occupy Ukraine. What made the Russian claims dubious, of course, were the columns of tanks heading south from Belarus toward Kyiv, among other things."
},
{
... | 2022-03-27T14:03:46+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_4091#26413 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "@VictorTheClean3 @TheSuperbubble In the case of Ukraine, the price for Russia is high and the longer the war goes on, the weaker Russia gets and it can’t afford that price indefinitely."
},
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "The U.S.' war in Afghanistan did not threaten ... | 2022-03-22T17:39:51+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_6779#26414 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "If Russia wanted to create a sense in Europe that it could invade at will, it has failed. It has only succeeded at bringing the U.S. and Europe closer. The continued combat and the brutality that Russia seems to think are required to defeat Ukraine only galvanizes it more."
}... | 2022-03-17T15:49:35+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_6427#26415 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "The U.S. and China met for 7 hours with few details released. What is clear is this is the time for China to construct a new relationship with the U.S. China no longer sees Russia as a full counter weight to the U.S., and Beijing’s treaty with Russia just lowered in importance... | 2022-03-11T19:37:36+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_7138#26416 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "When Putin took power, wealth was in the hands of a dozen or so oligarchs, and the economy and Russian power depended on energy, which was the source of revenue and leverage over nations reliant on Russian supplies. In many ways, Russia was like Saudi Arabia in the 1970s."
},... | 2022-03-08T14:29:45+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_8745#26417 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "Rather than a rapid and decisive defeat of Ukraine, Russia is engaged in a slow, grinding war unlikely to impress the world with its return to the first ranks of military power."
},
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "Russia seems undeterred by sanctions. The measures wi... | 2022-03-05T15:24:27+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_1218#26418 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "China is far more the economic animal, basing its internal system on financial and productive systems. As such, it is the largest exporter in the world. The US’ imposition of some tariffs was troubling. The imposition of a sanction system could be catastrophic."
},
{
"... | 2022-03-03T13:59:39+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_3966#26419 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "Russia has put itself in a bad position. The fragmentation of Europe is no longer possible. Even if it defeats Ukraine, it will be that much closer to a hostile Europe, led by a newly remilitarized Germany."
},
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "Central to all calculati... | 2022-02-28T21:04:56+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_9831#26420 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "@durnhamuk1990 Germany hasn’t lived up to it’s NATO obligations in years. Therefore a willingness to do so is a massive shift. It may not seem like much but it is."
},
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "The decision of #Germany to massively rearm changes the entire dynam... | 2022-02-27T17:26:28+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_8498#26421 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "An attempt to enter the Ukrainian capital with motorized infantry is likely to fail, as appeared to happen Sunday in Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv."
},
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "throughout the city for more than a day. But most of what we see around K... | 2022-02-27T17:24:05+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_5412#26422 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "Russian and Ukrainian forces for days have been engaged in what appear to be fierce skirmishes in the northwest and western edges of Kyiv. There have been reports of small Russian units, potentially special operations forces, sowing confusion and engaging in running gunbattles... | 2022-02-25T20:53:27+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_8352#26423 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "The problem was that there were no divisions within Ukraine proper to exploit, nor any conflicts in which to intervene. For Russia, Ukraine was too urgent a matter to be treated like the others."
},
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "There was an outbreak of political v... | 2022-02-24T20:11:00+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_9607#26424 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "During the first phase of a full scale invasion the first\nthing the Russians would do is isolate the Ukrainian leadership and take down all internal communications. That has apparently not happened, as information is flowing. Communications have not been brought down."
},
... | 2022-02-22T18:50:58+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_2267#26425 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "Russia has officially ordered soldiers into Donetsk and Luhansk, and though this certainly increases the sense of crisis, it must also be put in context. The region has effectively been under Russian control since the aftermath of the 2014 Maidan revolution."
},
{
"spe... | 2022-02-11T20:59:39+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_5654#26426 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "Listen to my latest on the Russia/Ukraine crisis with John Batchelor @batchelorshow"
},
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "Global crises have the fine patina of subtlety coupled with dishonesty. They aren’t the sole domain of Washington and Moscow, but for my money, ther... | 2022-01-25T17:14:09+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_4381#26427 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "Above all else, what the Russians want is to have their sphere of influence, as the Americans do, so that no one enters to threaten them. What comes out of this is a weakened EU with foreign business opportunities, which Russia can then take advantage of."
},
{
"speake... | 2021-12-27T21:45:07+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_3529#26428 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "If you liked my newest book, The Storm Before the Calm, consider buying a copy as a gift this holiday season. If you didn't like my book, consider buying it for your least favorite friend this holiday season."
},
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "Horrendous wars occur... | 2021-12-16T19:46:26+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_5587#26429 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "The degree to which the battle against COVID-19 has changed our lives, the economy and social norms has been staggering. The possibility of the virus mutating means continual adjustments to or reinventions of vaccines, and more. https://t.co/66Jfs8GKcM"
},
{
"speaker": ... | 2021-12-09T17:03:08+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_1906#26430 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "Pearl Harbor led to the reasonable belief that an enemy might strike at any time, and that the U.S. and others must be on continual standby alert. It fundamentally transformed the American understanding of the dangers that are present in the world."
},
{
"speaker": "SEL... | 2021-11-30T21:40:46+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_5156#26431 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "There is no life that isn’t flawed, but those who focus only on the failures are themselves guilty of at least poor judgment, and at most malicious intent. A life must be judged on the whole & the discovery of flaws must confirm their humanity, not cause us to want to eras... | 2021-11-09T16:35:59+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_1488#26432 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "This week’s elections in the US signaled a counterattack being launched at the progressives. Its left President Biden with a ruling party that has the thinnest congressional majority & is internally split. It's not clear that Biden will have the power to govern later in hi... | 2021-11-02T18:28:53+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_5200#26433 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "Dwight Eisenhower’s aversion to using military force is interesting and worth considering in light of Afghanistan and other conflicts. He provided a framework for thinking about how to move beyond the forever wars we have fought. \nhttps://t.co/Lo8EuIzOAY"
},
{
"speake... | 2021-10-19T18:15:16+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_8865#26434 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "China has the world’s second largest #GDP. But on a per capita basis, it ranks just 75th in the world. This explains much of #China’s behavior, like keeping zombie companies afloat and developing the interior through the Belt and Road Initiative. https://t.co/Ig2z970cpD"
},
... | 2021-09-28T14:49:53+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_4831#26435 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "By 1900, the United States was producing half the manufactured goods in the world. American innovation seemed to portend U.S. economic domination of the world. What, after all, could stop us?\nWhat stopped us was World War I. https://t.co/L4AaS0sZZG"
},
{
"speaker": "SE... | 2021-09-07T13:07:55+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_5852#26436 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "#Germany's economy is really exposed to any shifts in the international market. The largest #economy in Europe is not really in control of its own economy. In that sense it's the most dangerous country in Europe because it's the most important country and incredibly vulnerable.... | 2021-08-17T19:16:52+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_4390#26437 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "The world has grown used to U.S. military intervention. But the US has to control where and how it goes to war. And its notion of victory includes the moral transformation of ancient people who do not think they are immoral. https://t.co/yyvAS58Pt9 https://t.co/ShbARsYsyc"
... | 2021-07-28T16:12:22+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_1019#26438 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "There are constraints and imperatives that all leaders must come to grips with. I explained what really makes a good leader in an interview with @brainbarcom. https://t.co/5rgw6tVLtT"
},
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "The founders wanted society, not the government, ... | 2021-07-22T16:27:05+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_3741#26439 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "Asked last week about COVID-19 disinformation on social media, President Biden said Facebook is killing Americans. We have now reached the point where presidents confront social media companies as enemies potentially more powerful than they are. https://t.co/GdMguTDJGF"
},
... | 2021-07-13T17:57:32+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_7397#26440 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "Looking at the economy as a whole, China is impressive. In per capita GDP, it is another matter. https://t.co/9qh41DUjNm https://t.co/RO645I4OZE"
},
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "During the #ColdWar, the Soviets incurred costs that could not be sustained as they li... | 2021-06-29T18:38:35+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_9163#26441 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "The resurrection of critical theory takes political issues as merely a means of transforming the psyche. The object has been to change what we think and how we organize our thoughts. We must recognize the corruption in our minds so our lives can change. https://t.co/zVNbrdHzEf... | 2021-06-04T17:45:33+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_6807#26442 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has issued a warning to Europe, telling its leaders that Russia will respond if they continue to press east. His recent speech also spoke to those who hoped that the situation in Belarus would simply go away. https://t.co/ofAknSxY6X"
},
... | 2021-05-11T17:01:24+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_5655#26443 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "There has been a massive shift in reproduction patterns, as children have become fiendishly expensive. A middle-class family in the city with a large number of children faces tremendous economic challenges. Oftentimes, the impulse to reproduce is tempered by economic reality."... | 2021-04-27T16:12:36+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_1228#26444 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "Having lived in Texas for a quarter-century, I will never be seen as a Texan, as I have no ancestors who died at the Alamo. Few states in the union revere the memory of their birth as much as Texas. But then, Texas won the revolution and became an independent nation."
},
{
... | 2021-04-12T15:11:35+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_2434#26445 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "Former President Donald Trump was accused of undermining the principles of a rules-based international order by imposing tariffs on #China and questioning the value of #NATO. But was there ever a rules-based international order or was it an illusion? https://t.co/t9CzXP2zWV"
... | 2021-04-02T17:15:16+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_9508#26446 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "The importance of the #SuezCanal has been made clear by the Ever Given, the ship that was until Monday stuck in the canal, creating a worldwide traffic jam. The Suez is open for business again, but in some ways the damage is already done. https://t.co/26xC6oBB5d"
},
{
... | 2021-03-24T16:35:05+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_3167#26447 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "Any time there is a new U.S. president, major powers set out to test him and lay the groundwork for future bargaining in potential conflicts. This is the case with recent collapses in diplomacy between the U.S., China, and Russia. https://t.co/39chFppWTe"
},
{
"speaker"... | 2021-03-08T00:00:05+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_9368#26448 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "The American public tends to resist government instructions and has a robust sense of distrust. It is very good at breaking the rules to find new ways of doing things. This is its virtue, and it – as with most virtues – is likely to become a vice. https://t.co/fge2pfyd08"
},... | 2021-02-25T16:50:03+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_8192#26449 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "The Middle East is at the moment a radically different place than it was during Obama’s or Trump’s terms. Now Biden must consider not only the nuclear deal and Iran but also the coalition that Israel has formed. https://t.co/qD1Of6vKfE"
},
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"tex... | 2021-02-18T16:25:03+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_3927#26450 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "Cuba has always frightened the United States, long before Fidel Castro and Che Guevara ever did. Key West has been a site of naval installations and where exercises were held. I’d go so far as to say that if Key West isn’t secure, the U.S. isn’t either. https://t.co/rC39P8nbnz... | 2021-02-02T22:40:03+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_2214#26451 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "The Greek word for a private person was “idiotes,” meaning much the same as our “idiot.” This did not mean private life was pursued only by idiots, but rather that the private person failed to elevate himself toward the moral excellency of serving a city. https://t.co/QqDMRTPJS... | 2021-01-22T16:20:02+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_7429#26452 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "After November's U.S. presidential election, I spoke on the @Gallup podcast to assess the deep, profound division in the country and how this moment fits into a larger, cyclical nature of economic and social crises in the U.S. https://t.co/lSbOQTULRM"
},
{
"speaker": "S... | 2021-01-14T19:05:03+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_1691#26453 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "I long for a lost world in which reasonable people could disagree over politics and still be friends. Donald Trump did not rip friendships apart; we did that to ourselves. I love this country. It is time for its citizens to get a grip."
},
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"te... | 2020-12-22T17:25:03+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_2333#26454 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "The U.S. defeated the Japanese at Midway because it broke the Japanese code. It lost the fleet at Pearl Harbor because it lacked spies and codebreakers. Buried in the many noble and virtuous lessons in the Bible is that war depends on good intelligence. https://t.co/hdRBBNcdFf... | 2020-12-13T16:50:02+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_1272#26455 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "The 2020 U.S. presidential election is not the first to result in allegations of corruption. I'm sure John Quincy Adams and Andrew Jackson are still duking it out in the afterlife over who stole the election of 1824. https://t.co/hbCiqhzyTY"
},
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
... | 2020-12-02T20:00:18+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_8263#26456 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "On Thanksgiving we give thanks for our children and grandchildren, though there will be no family gathering this year. It is truly a family holiday for us, for my wife is a descendent of William Bradford, who was the first governor of Plymouth Colony. https://t.co/2YEH4PAYiN"
... | 2020-11-23T23:30:04+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_5243#26457 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "Strategic depth is vital for Russia in the very long term. It has not solved its core problems by strategic maneuvers, however useful. Without a transformation of its economy, it continues to be in crisis. https://t.co/JBm5LCSXZD"
},
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "I'... | 2020-11-12T18:30:07+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_2947#26458 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "Every profession demands that you surrender something of profound interest and pleasure. My profession demands that I give up the pleasure of having opinions. The self-evident virtue of the Yankees is granted me. Judging nations and politicians is not. https://t.co/ejFQ2iGheG"... | 2020-11-04T15:35:03+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_4091#26459 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "In less than a week, the United States will elect a president for the 59th time in its history. To me, the hatred and contempt we show our fellow citizens who might once have been friends is more troubling than the political passion. https://t.co/jwKCT3oz2M"
},
{
"speak... | 2020-10-27T16:30:08+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_3011#26460 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "The fundamental problem of social media is anonymity. Anyone can say anything and walk away. It was an efficient plan that now meets antitrust laws. Google created a search engine that mapped out the internet, while also claiming they were not responsible for their content."
... | 2020-10-19T00:05:01+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_8936#26461 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "No relationships in the Caucasus are fixed in stone. No doors are locked, but a war there cannot be waged intensely without the support of Russia or Turkey. In that sense, fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh is, much like Syria and Libya, another dimension of the Russo-Turkish rivalr... | 2020-10-01T19:40:03+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_8088#26462 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the geopolitically relevant Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave inside #Azerbaijan, has been beset by low-level, intermittent skirmishes. The most recent round reportedly has resulted in hundreds of casualties. https://t.co/375kevWl9t"
},
{
... | 2020-09-15T15:35:20+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_5234#26463 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "September 11th holds different meanings for different people. And since then, a generation has emerged that has no memory of 9/11. Whatever errors were made in the following years of war, there was no second 9/11 in America. https://t.co/nsrkyZwbbN"
},
{
"speaker": "OT... | 2020-09-03T18:35:03+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_6693#26464 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "In my book #TheStormBeforetheCalm, I predicted that one of the main battles of the next cycle would be the future of the #university. The #coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the timetable dramatically, and the crisis is now. https://t.co/HA8EbDpyKf"
},
{
"speaker": "... | 2020-08-19T16:55:07+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_6952#26465 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "There are deep social & cultural divisions in the nation. Donald Trump did not create these divisions; rather, he emerged from them. But the current political debate reveals the great danger in being passionate: the loss of a sense of proportion, reflection and flexibility.... | 2020-07-23T19:04:37+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_5391#26466 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "Historically, #China’s great battles have been waged in China against the Chinese (or the Mongols). This was dictated by #geography. Power projection has always been too difficult and risky. #GPF #geopolitics https://t.co/pou3dbIF9C"
},
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text":... | 2020-06-18T15:40:26+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_5388#26467 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "As Mark Twain famously put it, “History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” We cannot predict everything about life, but we can grasp the pattern that grips us and within which we struggle to live. https://t.co/TbP5atx6Yh"
},
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "T... | 2020-05-28T16:25:04+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_1219#26468 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "How #COVID19 evolves depends on the successes and failures of medical research. “Do no harm” is an admirable and desirable principle, but moral absolutes may not be as useful right now as the principle of calculated risk. https://t.co/eo9dBN91S7"
},
{
"speaker": "OTHER"... | 2020-05-05T16:10:07+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_3090#26469 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "The #coronavirus crisis has entered a new phase. In many parts of the world, people are ignoring #socialdistancing and quarantine rules. The U.S. government, facing economic and social pressures, is shifting the tempo of its response. https://t.co/Muzmck3Kyo"
},
{
"spea... | 2020-04-16T15:35:09+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_6130#26470 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "The supply chain bound together the U.S. and China; two countries that did not simply have an interest in free #trade but an interest in advantageous trade. And then all hell broke loose with the coronavirus. https://t.co/knpey2UUrL"
},
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text"... | 2020-03-31T17:35:06+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_3331#26471 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "One of the most important consequences of the #coronavirus pandemic is that borders are becoming barriers. Movement of services and people has now been interrupted all across Europe, and between the U.S.-Canada border. https://t.co/tr4D4PfhRL"
},
{
"speaker": "SELF",... | 2020-03-19T16:45:08+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_9260#26472 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "No matter how automated the #supplychain has become, it is staffed by people who deliver products to people. Warehouses still employ human workers. It is not that the #quarantine is ineffective; it’s that it runs counter to the principles of its intent. - GF"
},
{
"spe... | 2020-03-05T14:35:09+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_4309#26473 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "#Canada's conflicts are usually contained in a predictable framework. But will its internal crisis over First Nations’ objections to a #naturalgas pipeline in British Columbia break out of this framework? https://t.co/N5o1Doz0oZ"
},
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "A ... | 2020-02-11T16:10:07+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_4735#26474 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "The public expects a competence-based government to produce miracles, and when disappointed, the public can turn vicious. #China's President Xi Jinping sold himself as ultra-competent. Events such as the #coronavirus outbreak eat ultra-competence alive. https://t.co/JafR7Xqd6F... | 2020-01-24T21:25:04+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_9698#26475 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced constitutional changes that could lay a path for him to hold on to power beyond 2024. He also wants to change the perception of Poland from a victim nation to a historical aggressor. https://t.co/WKcd2EqHdp"
},
{
"speaker"... | 2020-01-23T17:05:13+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_7574#26476 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "With catastrophic events in #Iran and #Libya, it is prudent to consider their current state, after the panic, and to consider other panic-ridden global processes. What, after all, happened to China and #Brexit? https://t.co/2QmI9KhuLz"
},
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text... | 2020-01-06T15:15:40+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_2228#26477 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "#Soleimani #Iran #Iraq https://t.co/6zBE83kpMS https://t.co/yoBRVJvOod"
},
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "The Russians do not want their proxies defeated. But the Russians also cannot afford to alienate Turkey, because Turkey can hurt Russia in the Caucasus, Black Se... | 2019-12-18T16:05:08+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_1078#26478 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "There are times when electoral politics reveals something of the underlying reality of a nation. That's the case in Israel now. The nation is so divided on issues so fundamental to the nature of Israel that the normal political process has frozen & a crisis is being reveale... | 2019-12-02T18:40:05+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_6594#26479 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "Leaked government documents describe in detail a broad Chinese assault that has been underway for several years on the ethnic minority Uighur community in the western province of Xinjiang. Beijing clearly wants to break the back of Islam in the province. - GF"
},
{
"sp... | 2019-11-11T22:25:03+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_7530#26480 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "@KerimliTelman @GPFutures Again, the Russian expansion is made to appear far more substantial than it is. Arabs and Turkey have a long term tension since the Ottomans. Russia is fishing in this breach with some limited success but nothing that changes the system decisively."
... | 2019-09-17T14:59:28+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_1993#26481 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "An extraordinary coalition has emerged with the support of the U.S., bringing together Israel, #Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni states. It is a threat to Iranian interests. If #Iran's sphere of influence collapses, its western border becomes once again exposed. - GF"
},
{
... | 2019-09-16T18:26:24+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_3141#26482 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "@aje430150 @GPFutures Thank you for reading, Mitchell. We’re closely monitoring what’s going on and will let you know what’s coming next."
},
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "We @GPFutures have long regarded the expansion of Iranian influence on a bridge from Iran to ... | 2019-09-09T15:05:08+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_1727#26483 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "There are deep social & cultural divisions in the nation. Donald Trump did not create these divisions; rather, he emerged from them. But the current political debate reveals the great danger in being passionate: the loss of a sense of proportion, reflection and flexibility.... | 2019-07-24T14:37:11+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_9017#26484 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "The most definitive role the #BlackSea has played has been as an arena of war, or at least an adjunct to the war raging on the land around it. And though there is no war on its waters right now, the Bosporus is constantly at risk. - GF"
},
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"te... | 2019-05-28T21:30:14+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_7129#26485 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "In the past, as during Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, U.S. strategy would be to use main force to block #Iran. But the new strategy is the U.S. now wants to rely on regional powers to act when it is in their interests to do so, rather than to take direct action itself. - GF"
},
... | 2019-04-22T13:53:21+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_1986#26486 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "@rousso 1/2: Globalizatoin is not new in spite of common believe. Since the 16th century and the European entry into the western hemisphere, there has been a global system. Wealth flowed to Iberia, built European empires supplementing the China-India-Europe trade route."
},
... | 2019-04-07T16:50:52+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_8016#26487 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "Britain has a very different economic & political culture than the Continent, as well as a different history. Leaving other matters aside, it does not fit into Europe; the attempt at bridging this gap has led to the worst political crisis in Britain since the fall of Franc... | 2019-03-27T21:29:16+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_8840#26488 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "(2/3)...against both internal regimes and external powers. Given the miltiary reality, random acts of terrorism are being used. Therefore, at this point, the prmary source of terrorism is from the Islamic world..."
},
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "All Muslims are no... | 2019-03-04T13:55:11+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_8983#26489 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "The founders of the U.S. government created a system that usually, except in extreme emergencies, is incapable of doing anything well. And for that reason, because of the nature of the regime we have, the rest of the country's not terrified of what Washington's going to do. - G... | 2019-02-05T16:10:23+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_7005#26490 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "As long as illegal immigration is permitted, the foundations of American culture are at risk. It is not simply immigration, but the illegality that is frightening, because it not only can’t be controlled, but also the law is under attack by those who claim to uphold it. - GF"
... | 2019-01-06T20:36:10+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_1285#26491 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "Humans cycle between complacency and fear. When the time for fear comes, we magnify the threat. It’s a natural response; after all, when things go wrong, we humans need all the energy we can muster to face it, and terror is the most powerful of feelings. - GF"
},
{
"s... | 2018-12-20T17:02:33+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_8994#26492 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "The G-20 summit opened in Buenos Aires today. As with many summits, while the main event is almost always meaningless, the drama, the rumors and the salacious speculation about what’s being said behind closed doors can be instructive. #G20 - @GPFutures https://t.co/J91Y0Vv6Sc h... | 2018-11-28T19:17:33+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_4683#26493 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "In Washington D.C. and meeting up with some of our @GPFutures subscribers tonight for dinner and discussion on global issues. - GF"
},
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "@Laszlobekes Incredible. What year did you cross the Tisza?"
},
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"... | 2018-09-26T13:26:07+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_2012#26494 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "In Budapest. Amazing how little Hungarians at all levels seem to be effected by the EU condemnation. Just doesn't seem to matter to most of them, except for speculating on Orban's next move. EU's moral power is not what it thinks it is. - GF"
},
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
... | 2018-09-14T17:21:42+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_6134#26495 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "@tomworthjr Erdogan has always been hostile to Assad. He also has always refused to get militarily involved. Good move. The relationship with Russia has less to do with the Syrian situation but the fact that Erdogan is very distrustful of the US intentions."
},
{
"spea... | 2018-09-11T17:08:24+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_1087#26496 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "All of us are flawed in many ways and all of us hold opinions others dislike. Compared to the towering courage of getting up and going into harms way, opinions and comments matter little. - GF"
},
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text": "John McCain's greatness was in his will... | 2018-08-29T18:02:58+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_5945#26497 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "As we get closer the threats will get more lurid. But neither side can afford a total breakdown and the British can't live with Brussels governance. Somewhere in there is the last minute deal, with endless drama until then. - GF"
},
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": ... | 2018-08-20T13:53:30+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_8803#26498 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "Interesting the way that the dollar is rising. After all is said and done, the dollar is where you go when trouble breaks out. Even the euro is falling relative to the dollar. - GF"
},
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "...Governments can make this worse under pressur... | 2018-08-06T18:30:21+00:00 |
George_Friedman | conv_7403#26499 | twitter | [
{
"speaker": "OTHER",
"text": "#Turkey has frozen the assets (in Turkey) of two US cabinet members. Is Turkey willing to forego the US, and deal with Russian and Iran on its own? The accumulation of gestures is really becoming an issue that can't be dismissed. - GF"
},
{
"speaker": "SELF",
"text... | 2018-08-02T19:25:06+00:00 |
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