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to the accumulation of marine algae biomass
(70). The algae that cause harmful algal
blooms in coastal marine and estuarine waters
are favored over other algae when water temperature is high and the water becomes thermally stratified (71, 72). Harmful algal blooms
have been reported throughout Florida’s
coastal marine and estuarine waters (73).
W H A T I S P R O B A B L E :
• If climate change systematically increases nutrient
availability and alters the amount of available light
and the stability of the water column, there may be
substantive changes in the productivity, composition,
and biomass of marine algae, including the harmful
species (74).
• If water temperatures increase due to climate
change, harmful algal blooms probably will
become more frequent and intense (71, 72, 75).
W H A T I S P O S S I B L E :
• The increased occurrence, intensity, and toxicity of
harmful algal blooms may result in the disruption of
coastal marine and estuarine food webs, more
frequent fish kills, and adverse impacts to people in
or near an affected coastal area (70, 71, 75).
Photo courtesy of Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission
­
IV. “Drivers” of Climate Change
and Their Effects on Florida’s
Ocean and Coastal Resources
E F F ECT : Hypoxia
Warm water holds less dissolved oxygen than cold water. Hypoxia, or low oxygen, occurs when the levels of
oxygen dissolved in water fall below levels necessary to support ocean and coastal life, and can lead to what
is called a “dead zone.” Nutrients can cause or exacerbate hypoxic conditions by causing certain organisms
to proliferate, leading to decreased oxygen when they decay. Terrestrial nutrients are introduced into the ma
rine environment through precipitation and runoff.
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IV
W H A T W E K N O W :
• Hypoxia can occur as a natural phenomenon
and also as a human­induced or exacerbated
event (76).
• Precipitation and runoff amounts and distribution
have changed over recent years and will continue to change as climate change progresses
(77).
W H A T I S P R O B A B L E :
• Increased runoff in some areas, coupled with human
population increases in Florida, will lead to the increased transport of nutrients to coastal waters, contributing to hypoxia (5).
W H A T I S P O S S I B L E :
• Locations that have experienced hypoxia may also
experience longer hypoxic episodes, or even the
annual recurrence of hypoxia (78).
• Increased density stratification within estuaries could
occur with increased precipitation and runoff (79).
• New locations with hypoxia may develop in coastal
areas (78).
• There may be adverse impacts on bottom­feeding
fish and sessile (attached to the bottom) organisms
(5).
Photo courtesy of Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission
­ ­
­ ­
IV. “Drivers” of Climate Change
and Their Effects on Florida’s
Ocean and Coastal Resources
DR IVE R : Increasing Sea Level
The rate at which sea level rises is equally as important to coastal resources as how much it rises. Florida’s
geology, chemistry, biology, and human population have already been, and will continue to be, profoundly
affected by rising sea level. For the past few thousand years, the sea level around Florida has been rising very
slowly, although a persistent upturn in the rate of relative sea level rise may have begun recently (5). Geolog
ical studies show that in the past, Florida and global sea level rose or fell much more rapidly than in
recent times. Distinguishing Florida specific sea level trends from future global trends is a critical research need.
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IV
W H A T W E K N O W :
• Around Florida, relative sea level has been
rising at a slow but constant rate, about an inch
or less per decade (80).
• The rate of global sea rise increased from the
19th to the 20th century (5).
W H A T I S P R O B A B L E :
• The rate of global average sea­level rise has
increased during the late 20th century (81).
• In time, the rate of global sea­level rise will accelerate
because of ocean warming and contributions from
land­based ice melt from glaciers and the ice sheets
of Greenland and Antarctica (5).
• Sea­level rise will continue well after 2100 even if
greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized by
then (5).
W H A T I S P O S S I B L E :
• Major inputs of water from the melting of highlatitude and high­altitude ice reservoirs could cause
several meters of sea­level rise over a period of
centuries (82).
Key West, FL—forecasted sea level rise.
Monthly Index
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