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nutrient threshold or to the median nutrient concentration if the threshold is larger than
the median. The UP-L is a nutrient upper bound concentration of the LT-L that accounts
for natural variability in nutrient drivers, for example annual seasonality and climatic
variability. The UP-L is the 80th upper confidence limit of a normal distribution with mean
equal to the threshold and standard deviation equal to the nutrient’s standard deviation
for the segment under consideration. This limit allows one exceedence in three
consecutive years. The Type I error rate for both limits is about 10 percent. A summary
of the calculated criteria is presented in Table 6.2.
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Table 6.2: Total Phosphorous (TP) and Total Nitrogen (TN) median, Long-Term Limit
(LT-L) and Upper-Limit (UP-L) concentrations for South Florida coastal and estuarine
waters.
Basins Segment TN median TN LT-L TN UP-L TP median TP LT-L TP UPL
FK MAR 0.165 0.126 0.213 0.007 0.007 0.011
BKB 0.219 0.182 0.292 0.007 0.007 0.010
BKS 0.200 0.163 0.276 0.009 0.008 0.012
LK 0.178 0.178 0.270 0.006 0.005 0.008
MK 0.185 0.147 0.244 0.006 0.004 0.007
OFF 0.142 0.113 0.198 0.006 0.004 0.008
UK 0.158 0.125 0.201 0.005 0.003 0.007
BB CS 0.277 0.205 0.307 0.006 0.004 0.008
MBS 0.534 0.476 0.656 0.006 0.004 0.007
NCI 0.290 0.290 0.397 0.005 0.004 0.008
NCO 0.244 0.235 0.344 0.006 0.005 0.009
NNB 0.257 0.189 0.304 0.010 0.007 0.012
SCI 0.421 0.421 0.598 0.006 0.004 0.007
SCM 0.292 0.244 0.382 0.006 0.004 0.008
SCO 0.209 0.187 0.283 0.005 0.004 0.007
SNB 0.254 0.153 0.246 0.008 0.005 0.008
FB CFB 0.869 0.869 1.331 0.015 0.012 0.025
ECFB 0.613 0.449 0.652 0.006 0.004 0.009
NFB 0.614 0.664 0.882 0.009 0.005 0.010
SFB 0.571 0.520 0.781 0.007 0.007 0.012
WFB 0.323 0.222 0.408 0.012 0.012 0.025
CL 1.090 1.050 1.399 0.036 0.028 0.042
WWB-TTI BLK 0.357 0.339 0.474 0.046 0.035 0.050
CTZ 0.514 0.474 0.674 0.030 0.024 0.037
GI 0.375 0.335 0.488 0.033 0.024 0.037
IWW 0.556 0.516 0.732 0.028 0.022 0.032
MR 0.619 0.579 0.795 0.019 0.012 0.021
PD 0.437 0.398 0.561 0.019 0.012 0.019
SRM 0.617 0.577 0.879 0.018 0.012 0.021
WWB 0.690 0.651 0.927 0.020 0.017 0.027
PIRB CI 0.213 0.150 0.235 0.026 0.021 0.034
EB 0.264 0.239 0.351 0.041 0.038 0.056
MARC 0.254 0.214 0.321 0.037 0.035 0.049
NPL 0.264 0.222 0.331 0.039 0.031 0.045
PINE 0.255 0.220 0.347 0.038 0.036 0.056
SCB 0.318 0.318 0.516 0.055 0.037 0.068
COCO 0.389 0.316 0.479 0.049 0.043 0.059
SHELF IGS 0.230 0.190 0.298 0.014 0.011 0.020
MGS 0.208 0.134 0.223 0.014 0.012 0.017
OGS 0.181 0.181 0.262 0.013 0.011 0.015
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RECOMMENDATIONS
A century of drainage modification has altered the natural cycle of freshwater
inflows into the Biscayne Bay. Freshwater wetlands in the watershed have been
reduced drastically and transformed into agricultural or urban areas, while the
metropolitan area extended even into the bay proper. Nutrient enrichment due to urban
development has preferentially affected North BB, and agriculture has impacted WQ
especially in Central and South BB. In spite of these transformations, Biscayne Bay
waters are still oligotrophic and nurture abundant tropical and temperate fish species
and prolific benthic communities dominated by seagrass meadows and sponges
(Browder et al. 2005; Alleman, et al. 1995; Lirman et al. 2003, 2008).
Threats posed to BB ecosystems are diverse, some are natural while other are
anthropogenic, some are unstoppable (i.e. SLR) while other may be managed and/or
neutralized (i.e. sprawl urban development). Recent reports from the U.S. Global
Climate Change Science Program (Karl, et al. 2009) indicate that global average sea
level may rise more than 2 feet by 2100, while local weather patterns would change
causing significant impacts on coastal South Florida (Table 5.1). Hence, any policy or
action plan to protect BNP natural resources must be conceived within the framework of
an increasing sea level and global warming scenario. On the other hand, managing the
effects of sea level rise will require adapting human activities with policies, programs
and actions so communities, economies and ecosystems cope with climate change
(Lausche, 2009).
The following are summarized recommendations derived from the literature
synthesis and analysis of this research, intended to protect BNP natural resources
within the framework of climate change:
 Little is known regarding species responses to climate change in South
Florida. Nevertheless, ecosystem resilience and capacity for adaptation
may be improved by maintaining or restoring large-scale connectivity of
ecological networks (core areas, corridors, buffer zones and restoration
areas), especially in those areas affected by habitat fragmentation.
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 The region nearest BNP has recently seen an enormous expansion in
urban development as former farm fields have been converted into
residential developments. Projections of considerable further development
to south Miami-Dade County are alarming in the scope and magnitude of
development planned for the Park perimeter. Coastal development is an
existing threat to the Park which will only become worse through time.
 BNP should assure the acquisition of the necessary private and public
land to make initiatives like RECOVER viable. This project is intended to
provide a more natural overland flow into BB by diverting runoff and
redistributing it through a spreader canal system into the coastal wetlands,
but will also help upstream ecosystem migration as sea level rises.
 Four tightly interconnected domains need to be protected to guarantee
sustainability of BNP resources: freshwater marshes, mangrove forest,
seagrass meadows and coral reefs.
 Especial protection should be given to ecosystems characterized by high
rates of C-fixation, such as mangrove forest.