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B
QX
QX
QX
QO
QO
QO
Net Freshwater Supply, QR
Schematic diagram showing
the components of the water
and salt mass balances for A)
a single estuarine basin in
connection with the coastal
ocean and B) additional
fluxes introduced by flow and
exchange among sub-basins
within an estuarine basin.
Conditions in any estuarine
basin or sub-basin are
characterized by its volume
(equal to the product of its
area A and average water
depth d) and average salinity
S. In case A, salinity in the
single basin is maintained
through water exchange with
the coastal ocean at salinity
SO. In case B, salinity in a subbasin is maintained by water
exchange with adjacent
basins and the ocean
62
Overall the hydrology/salinity model captured well the patterns of spatial and
temporal variability in salinity in Biscayne Bay. Calibration and verification statistics
show that the box model accounts for greater that 70 percent of the variability in
measured salinity. Calculated values agree with measurements made within the same
week with an error of between 2 to 3 psu. Errors are comparable between the
calibration and verification time periods and are comparable to results achieved in the
previous box model study.
Fig 4.2: Spatial structure of the nutrient box-model.
When the model was used for nutrient mass balance calculations (step 4), the
results showed varied success at characterizing the link between nutrient loads and
concentrations in the Bay. Average values for TP concentrations assuming no loss or
SB1
SB2
2
4 6 5
7
8
SB1
SB1
SB1
S197
S26, S25, S25B
G93, S22,
S123
S21, S21A,
S20G, S20F
X18
X15
X0
X5
X17
Canal discharge
Net discharge
3
1
9
X16
X12 X13 X14
X11 X9 X10
X4
X8
X7
X6
X2 X3
1 – Miami River (boundary)
2 – North Central Inshore
3 – North Central Outer-bay
4 – South Central Inshore
5 – South Central Mid-bay
6 – South Central Outer-bay
7 – Card Sound
8 – Barnes Sound
9 – Manatee Bay
X1
S20
Schematic diagram of the structure of the Biscayne Bay
nutrient box model showing canal discharges, exchanges
(quantified by parameters X1, X2, …), and net discharge
between the boxes. Salinity boundary conditions for the
Atlantic Ocean SB1 and northeast Florida Bay SB2 are
indicated
63
transformation of TP exceeded average measured values by between 17 and 44
percent. Of particular interest, the calculated values of TP concentration reflect the
effect of very large loadings of TP caused by hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma in
2005 and Ernesto in 2006. Average values for NOx-N concentrations without
accounting for losses due to net denitrification greatly exceed average measured
values. Calculated values are between about 1.5 and 4 times higher than measured
values. The disparity between calculated and measured values indicates the degree to