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© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of President and Fellows of Harvard College. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons. org/licenses/by/4. 0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and re... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPT1 INTRODUCTION Anti-scientific attitudes can impose substantial costs on public health, the environment, and the economy. Misinformation about the danger of COVID-19 and a lack of trust in scientists have undermined compliance with social distancing measures and vaccination recommendations, ... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTscientifically explain the existence of all species including our own. The American Association for the Advancement of Science (2021) states that “the foundation of all life sciences is biological evolution”. 98 percent of its members express support for the statement that humans have evolve... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTlevels), (ii) cohort-specific national differences (such as national changes in attitudes across time), (iii) time-varying state-specific shocks that affect adjacent cohorts similarly (such as natural disasters or state-level political or religious shocks that do not differentially affect ch... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTexemplifies how science education can promote scientific attitudes, which can be directly relevant for improving public health, the environment, and the economy (Brzezinski et al., 2021; Martinez-Bravo and Stegmann, 2021). Third, this paper shows that the evaluated reforms affect high-stakes... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTidentity (Clots-Figueras and Masella, 2013), labor market participation and employment (Fuchs-Schündeln and Masella, 2016; Costa-Font, García-Hombrados, and Nicińska, 2024), political and economic preferences (Cantoni and Yuchtman, 2013; Cantoni et al., 2017), civic values (Bandiera et al., ... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTdespite the fact that being raised as Evangelical is a large negative predictor of evolution belief. While a number of studies have found a positive relationship between education and religiosity (Mc Cleary and Barro, 2006a,b; Glaeser and Sacerdote, 2008; Meyersson, 2014), other research sug... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPToverruled in 1967, and similar decisions followed in other states in the following years. In 1987, another law requiring that equal time must be spent on teaching evolution and creation was ruled unconstitutional by the US Supreme Court. In short, the legislative and adjudicative decisions o... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTof the members of the State Boards of Education. The selection process of these members differs across states. In some states, members are appointed by the governor, sometimes with the consent of the senate (for example in California and Florida). In other states, members are elected by the ... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTOnline Appendix A. 2 provides anecdotal evidence on the political processes leading to reforms in Florida and Texas. While Florida expanded the evolution coverage in 2008, Texas reduced it in 2009; with neither reform following a partisan change in government. Online Appendix A. 3 provides q... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTmany changes earlier to allow for a smooth transition of classroom activities before the deadline. Still, some individuals coded as exposed to the post-reform treatment may have been exposed to some pre-reform treatment. This dilutes the treatment-control contrast and implies that any effect... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTwas any reform). If more than one reform took place between 2000 and 2009 in a given state, there is information on the last reform. 13The evolution score serves as a treatment variable in this paper. When merging it with individual-level datasets, each individual is defined as being exposed... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTwith each census region having at least one state in which the evolution coverage became less comprehensive, more comprehensive, and remained unchanged, respectively. 3. 2 Micro Data The following subsection describes the three micro-level datasets used in this paper. Each of these repeated ... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTThe main sample consists of more than 14,000 students who were asked at least one question on evolution. It contains only public school students, as Science Standards have never been binding for private schools. The average evolution score equals 0. 65, implying that the sampled students wer... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTThe GSS is sampled from the entire US adult population irrespective of type of school attendance. This makes it impossible to differentiate between public and private school attendance as the NAEP. Instead, one can estimate effects net of endogenous sorting across school types, including hom... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPT4 IDENTIFICATION STRATEGY The analyses presented in this paper are based on the following two-way fixed effects (TWFE) model. The model exploits the different timing of reforms of the evolution coveragein Science Standardsacrossstates, andthefactthatsomeofthereformsextended the coverage of e... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTreforms, the outcomes of students attending high school in different states would have evolved along parallel trends, and that treatment effects are homogeneous over time. The TWFE model allows to rule out various concerns on the ability to estimate causal effects of the evolution coverage i... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTthis specification accounts for changes in trust in science that could develop differently in the various states, and change smoothly across cohorts. As the evolution score treatment variable is of continuous nature, the parallel trends assumption has to hold in its strong form: The average ... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTStandards in a given state and year is referred to as the “event”. This approach now views every reform as a discrete event and ignores differences in the intensity of the reform as indicated by the evolution score used in the baseline TWFE model, as follows: Yistu=5∑ k=-71(tis=ts+k)βk+γ∗Xis... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTthe event studies (Sun and Abraham, 2021). To test whether my TWFE OLS event study regressions are immune to this bias, I run the CS estimator (Callaway and Sant'Anna, 2021), which excludes those 2x2 difference-in-differences comparisons in which already-treated students act as controls from... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTStandards that cover evolution comprehensively (for example because students might not accept creationist content; reverse causality), or that third variables such as socio-economicstatusaffectboth(omittedvariablebias). Toisolatereformeffects, Iaddcontrol variables in columns (2)-(4). The fu... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTcoefficients are individually and jointly insignificant, and all post-reform coefficient are individually and jointly significant (the last two individual coefficients at the 1 percent level). The corresponding simple aggregate CS estimates based on the discrete reforms are also mostly signi... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTMoreover, I demonstrate that the reforms do not affect the probability of students' selection of high school biology courses, see Online Appendix Table A. V. 5. 2 Evolution Belief in Adulthood The second analysis shows that the teaching of evolution has a lasting impact on attitudes in adult... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTon a range of outcomes. 30It is also on the upper end of the persuasion rate distribution of media which includes rates from 3-8 percent (Della Vigna and Kaplan, 2007) to 65 percent (Enikolopov, Petrova, and Zhuravskaya, 2011) for different media, settings and outcomes. Reasons for the large... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTabsence of contamination by time-varying treatment effects of the OLS. As before, reform effects are more pronounced for the states that reduce the evolution coverage (Panel A) compared to the states that expand it (Panel B). 5. 3 Occupational Choice The third analysis reveals that the teach... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTNot least the COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the importance of the life science sector and its innovations (Barro, 2022). Subfield analysis reveals that the overall effect on the life sciences is mostly coming from the subfield of biology, see Figure IV. [Figure IV about here. ] The effec... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTpattern). Ingeneral, thispatternalignswithreportsofslightdelaysintheimplementation of reforms, likely attributable to adjustments in lesson plans, curricula, textbooks, and standardized testing, as discussed in Section 2. Also, note that in Panel A of Figure V, the CS results are similar to ... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTevolution topics are all numerically smaller than that of evolution, but I only reject the equality of coefficients of evolution and “motion” at the 10 percent level (p-value = 0. 086), and “energy” at the 5 percent level (p-value = 0. 034). As is visible in Online Appendix Tables A. VII, A.... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTconfidence intervals of my main event study estimates from Figures II, III, and V with confidence intervals that account for precision of pre-trends and allow for per-period deviations from linear trends up to parameter M. These confidence sets correct for the unintuitive property of standar... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTfor multiple hypothesis testing or define treatment as a binary variable, is presented in Online Appendix A. 7. 1. Note that some of the point estimates are quite sensitive to the inclusion of control variables, which I mostly attribute to the relatively small number of observations within e... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTthe policy debate about evolution teaching. As suggested by proponents of evolution teaching, the results indicate that teaching evolution has wider economic and societal benefits given the positive effects of scientific knowledge (Hanushek and Woessmann, 2008), scientific attitudes (Brzezin... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTfindings may also have a bearing for other countries where the teaching of evolution is controversial. 39Beyond the topic of evolution, the findings of this paper might also be relevant more broadly for further topics of science teaching, such as vaccinations, climate change or the trust in ... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTReferences Abadie, Alberto, Susan Athey, Guido W Imbens, and Jeffrey M Wooldridge, “When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 138 (2022), 1-35. Adukia, Anjali, Alex Eble, Emileigh Harrison, Hakizumwami Birali Runesha, and Teodora Szasz, “What We ... |
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ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTMAIN TABLES AND FIGURES Table I Effect of Evolution Coverage in Science Standards on Evolution Knowledge in School (Panel A), on Evolution Belief in Adulthood (Panel B), and on Probability of Working in Life Sciences (Panel C) (1) (2) (3) (4) Controls : NO State FE: NO Cohort FE: NOControls ... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPT Table II Robustness on Effect of Evolution Coverage in Science Standards on Evolution Knowledge in School (Panel A), on Evolution Belief in Adulthood (Panel B), and on Probability of Working in Life Sciences (Panel C) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Close Elections Contro... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTFigure I US Map of Evolution Score Difference Between 2000 and 2009 MD, 2002IA DE, 2006OH 2006PA 2002NEWA AL 2005AR 2005NM 2003 TX 2009CA KY GA 2004WIOR MO 2008VA 2003 TN 2007 LA 2005NY MI 2000ID FL 2008AK 2006IL 2004MT 2006 MN 2009 IN 2006 MA, 2006 KS 2007NV 2004VT CT, 2004 NJ DC, 2006 NC 2... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTFigure II Event-Study Graphs for Effect of Evolution Coverage in Science Standards on Evolution Knowledge in School (A) States reducing evolution coverage-. 1-. 050. 05. 1. 15Evolution Knowledge-7-5-3-1 1 3 5 Year to/from Evolution Curriculum Reform (two-year bins) TWFE OLS Callaway-Sant'Ann... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTFigure III Event-Study Graphs for Effect of Evolution Coverage in Science Standards on Evolution Belief in Adulthood (A) States reducing evolution coverage-. 2. 0. 2. 4. 6Evolution Belief-7-5-3-1 1 3 5 Year to/from Evolution Curriculum Reform (two-year bins) TWFE OLS Callaway-Sant'Anna (B) S... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTFigure IV Effect of Evolution Coverage in Science Standards on Probability of Working in Life Sciences, by Subfields of Life Sciences Biology (n=3,555) Agriculture and Food (n=1,241) Conservation and Forestry (n=1,047) Medical and Other (n=3,674)-. 02 0. 02. 04 Note:Figure shows TWFE OLS coe... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTFigure V Event-Study Graphs for Effect of Evolution Coverage in Science Standards on Probability of Working in Life Sciences (A) States reducing evolution coverage-. 050. 05. 1Working in Life Sciences-7-5-3-1 1 3 5 Year to/from Evolution Curriculum Reform (two-year bins) TWFE OLS Callaway-Sa... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTEVOLUTION VS. CREATIONISM IN THE CLASSROOM: THE LASTING EFFECTS OF SCIENCE EDUCATION BENJAMIN W. AROLD Online Appendix A Online Appendix 1 A. 1 Text Analysis on Science Standards...................... 1 A. 2 Reform Examples from Florida and Texas.................. 4 A. 3 Tests on the Timing ... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTA ONLINE APPENDIX A. 1 Text Analysis on Science Standards This analysis provides evidence from the text of the Science Standards that the evaluated reforms alter the coverage of evolution in the Science Standards to a much larger extent compared to the coverage of non-evolution scientific to... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTabove. Specifically, I count all words with the applicable word stem, for example, I categorized "evolved" under the "evolution" word category (using Python's Regular Expression Operations Module). Last, I generate a dataset containing the different word counts, the evolution score assigned ... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTStandards with an evolution score of 1 compared to those with an evolution score of 0, as reported in column (12) (e0. 300= 1. 349). This coefficient is not significantly different from zero (p-value = 0. 835), and is much smaller in size compared to and significantly different from the corr... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTA. 2 Reform Examples from Florida and Texas Reforms of the evolution coverage in Science Standards form the basis of the two-way fixed effects design performed in this paper. The following two reform examples illustrate how such reforms come into existence. While Florida expanded the evoluti... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTand added “pieces of creationist jargon” (Mead and Mates, 2009, p. 366). For example, the phrase that “the estimated age of the universe was 14 billion years” was removed. Notably, the reforms in Florida and Texas did not follow a partisan change since all governorsin21st Century Floridaand ... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTA. 3 Tests on the Timing of Reforms This analysis provides evidence on the exogenous timing of the evaluated reforms, using state-by-year level measures of economic, political, educational, evolution-related, and creationism-related conditions. I regress these characteristics on the evolutio... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTand creationism. Empirical Strategy: I regress the different state-by-year characteristics on the evolution score as well as state and year fixed effects, as follows: Yst=β·Evolution _Score st+δs+λt+ϵst (4) where Ystis the outcome in state s and year t. The treatment variable Evolution _Scor... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTA. 4 Data Appendix A. 4. 1 NAEP: Evolution Knowledge in School The NAEP is a congressionally mandated project also known as the Nation's Report Card. It is administered by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), a body within the Institute of Education Sciences (IES) and the US ... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTnon-evolution scientific topics. Online Appendix Table A. XIX shows that knowledge on evolution is in general positively correlated with knowledge on non-evolution scientific topics. In the preferred sample cut of keeping individuals who enter high school after 1990 and before 2010, I use th... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTA. 4. 2 GSS: Evolution Belief in Adulthood The GSS data in the main sample comes from the waves from 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016. For all scientific (religious) outcome variables, an increase in the variable always implies an increase in scientific knowledge (religiosity). Hence, ... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTaverage in NAEP, as expected given the comparable sample cut. Regarding the main outcome variable evolution belief, I find that 58 percent of sample say that the aforementioned statement about evolution is true. Regarding non-evolution scientific topics, six of the nine non-evolution scienti... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTA. 5 Evidence from High School Biology Teachers This supplementary analysis provides suggestive evidence that teachers base their evolution teaching on the evolution coverage of the Science Standard in power in their state. To show this, I draw on the National Survey of High School Biology T... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTconditional association of the outcome with being exposed to a very comprehensive coverage of evolution ( Evolution _Score s=1) as compared to being exposed to no or a creationist coverage of evolution ( Evolution _Score s=0). The vector Xicontains control variables,ηccaptures census divisio... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTA. XXVII). This positive, large, and significant association is specific to teaching hours spent on evolution. Other strategies regarding the teaching of evolution (and creationism) do not significantly differ by the evolution score. Taken together, the results presented in thissupplementary... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTA. 6 Heterogeneity Analysis In the following, I first provide a short summary on the subgroup effects, by outcome variable. Second, I discuss potential reasons that might have given rise to the observed pattern of subgroup effects. Evolution Knowledge in School: Subgroup analysis by NAEP stu... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTIn the following, I first provide a list of theoretical reasons for why the effect on evolution knowledge may plausibly be larger for females than for males. Then, I discuss how this can translate into occupational choice. Lastly, I conclude with a discussion of the implications of evolution... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTrelative to males. (It is not possible to compare pre-high school differences in evolution knowledge, as evolution knowledge is only elicited in the NAEP Science Test for grade 12. ) Is it plausible that these gender-specific effects on learning translate into gender-specific effects on occu... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTDiscussion of Subgroup Differences by Race, Urbanicity, and Religious Upbringing: The shares of females and males do not differ between different racial and socioeconomic groups. In contrast, many of the racial and socioeconomic variables are correlated with each other. Therefore, I discuss ... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTand rural schooling contexts that might contribute to a more efficient reform implementation in urban areas. These include differences in schooling resources, including internet access (Pew Research Center, 2018) and access to mental health support (Andrilla et al., 2018), differences in sch... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTA. 7 Robustness Appendix A. 7. 1 Further Robustness Checks This subsection covers a range of further robustness checks. The first test replicates the main analysis on a subset of reforms which themselves can arguably be regarded as-good-as-random (and not only their specific timing). This su... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTplacement course in biology. To account for such possibilities, I go to the other extreme and create a treatment variable that assumes equal exposure to teaching of evolution or creationism in all high school grades. For students who had a reform while being in high school, this approach eff... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTreligious attitudes, respectively, alleviates concerns about multiple hypothesis testing by reducing the number of tested hypotheses, see Anderson (2008). Second, I implement the particularly conservative Bonferroni correction. The treatment effects on the main outcomes remain statistically ... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTa private school if exposed to an evolution score of one relative to zero. This amounts to approximately one third of the sample mean. However, it is unlikely to be a key mechanism or pose a threat to identification for the following three reasons. First, the effect is estimated imprecisely ... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTanalysis is of interest if the mechanism in mind is that the evolution reforms work not through cohort-specific exposure to evolution theory, but through a general exposure to the topic to all cohorts in a given calendar year, for example through the media. To conduct this second analysis, I... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTalleviate concerns about the sample composition of public and private school students and homeschoolers directly, the GSS and ACS analyses of the main paper address this topic indirectly. Both are sampled from the entire population including private school students and homeschoolers. Hence, ... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTB TABLES AND FIGURES OF ONLINE APPENDIX 26Downloaded from https://academic. oup. com/qje/advance-article/doi/10. 1093/qje/qjae019/7693718 by guest on 16 June 2024 |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPT Table A. I Correlation Coefficients Vaccination Rates Trump Vote Evolution Belief Evolution Score (Curriculum) Vaccination Rates 1 Trump Vote-0. 785*** 1 Evolution Belief 0. 576***-0. 517*** 1 Evolution Score (Curriculum) 0. 398**-0. 466*** 0. 288* 1 Note:Sample: 50 U. S. states plus Distri... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTTable A. II Regressions for Vaccination Rates, Inspired by Barro (2022) Outcome: Vaccination Rates (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Trump Vote-0. 530***-0. 449***-0. 517***-0. 441*** (0. 115) (0. 114) (0. 127) (0. 124) Evolution Belief 0. 245*** 0. 099** 0. 098** (0. 056) (0. 040) (0. 041) Evolution ... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTTable A. III Effect of Evolution Coverage in Science Standards on Private School Attendance, and on Evolution Knowledge by School Type Attending Private School Evolution Knowledge (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) All Students Only Female Only Without PC At Home All Students Only Public School Student... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTTable A. IV CS Baseline Panel Estimator States that reduce evolution coverage States that expand evolution coverage All Individuals Excluding individuals with 20% highest and 20% lowest evolution coverage in Science Standards All Individuals Excluding individuals with 20% highest and 20% low... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTTable A. V Effect of Evolution Coverage in Science Standards on Selection into Biology Courses (1) (2) (3) First Year Biology Second Year Biology Advanced Placement Biology Evolution Score 0. 028 0. 007 0. 012 (0. 025) (0. 041) (0. 020) State FEs YES YES YES Cohort FEs YES YES YES Controls Y... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPT Table A. VI Effect of Evolution Coverage in Science Standards on Knowledge about Non-Evolution Scientific Topics Main Outcome: Non-Evolution Scientific Topics: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) Evolution Average Motion Matter and Mass Energy Reproduction Climate Change Pollution... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPT Table A. VII Effect of Evolution Coverage in Science Standards on Non-Evolution Scientific Topics Main Outcome: Non-Evolution Scientific Topics: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) Evolution Average Earth Radioactivity Reproduction Lasers Electrons Antibiotics Universe Tectonics S... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPTTable A. VIII Effect of Evolution Coverage in Science Standards on Science Attitudes Main Outcome: Non-Evolution Science Attitudes: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Evolution Average Scientific Research is Necessary Confidence in Science Interest in Science Evolution Score 0. 333***-0. 072-0. 067 0. 045-... |
ORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPT Table A. IX Effect of Evolution Coverage in Science Standards on Religious Outcomes Main Outcome:Religious Outcomes: Average Religious Outcomes: Believing (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Evolution Average God Bible Afterlife Rebirth Strong Believer Panel A Outcomes: Main; Religious Average; Rel... |
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