Datasets:
| { | |
| "note": "same 150 tasks, same runtime check and blind AI judge (claude-opus-5-5) for every model; claude-opus-5-5 is the preregistered run, the others are replications run after it", | |
| "models": { | |
| "claude-opus-5-5": { | |
| "versionprobe_verified_closed_book": { | |
| "answered": 984, | |
| "items": 984, | |
| "item_acc": 0.5843, | |
| "item_ci": [ | |
| 55.3, | |
| 61.5 | |
| ], | |
| "pair_acc": 0.2663, | |
| "pair_ci": [ | |
| 22.9, | |
| 30.7 | |
| ], | |
| "acc_on_valid": 0.7276, | |
| "acc_on_invalid": 0.4411 | |
| }, | |
| "repair": { | |
| "tasks_scored": 143, | |
| "tasks_excluded": 7, | |
| "a": { | |
| "valid": 0.5874, | |
| "faithful": 0.9301, | |
| "success": 0.5664, | |
| "success_ci": [ | |
| 48.5, | |
| 64.5 | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| "b": { | |
| "valid": 0.6993, | |
| "faithful": 0.8601, | |
| "success": 0.6014, | |
| "success_ci": [ | |
| 52.0, | |
| 67.8 | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| "c": { | |
| "valid": 0.8042, | |
| "faithful": 0.8811, | |
| "success": 0.6853, | |
| "success_ci": [ | |
| 60.5, | |
| 75.6 | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| "unchanged_answers": { | |
| "a": 0.0667, | |
| "b": 0.02, | |
| "c": 0.0 | |
| }, | |
| "mcnemar_c_vs_a": { | |
| "c_only": 29, | |
| "other_only": 12, | |
| "p": 0.0115 | |
| }, | |
| "mcnemar_c_vs_b": { | |
| "c_only": 21, | |
| "other_only": 9, | |
| "p": 0.0428 | |
| }, | |
| "strict_binding_success": { | |
| "a": 0.5594, | |
| "b": 0.5944, | |
| "c": 0.6853 | |
| } | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| "claude-fable-5-1": { | |
| "versionprobe_verified_closed_book": { | |
| "answered": 984, | |
| "items": 984, | |
| "item_acc": 0.565, | |
| "item_ci": [ | |
| 53.4, | |
| 59.6 | |
| ], | |
| "pair_acc": 0.2236, | |
| "pair_ci": [ | |
| 18.9, | |
| 26.2 | |
| ], | |
| "acc_on_valid": 0.7337, | |
| "acc_on_invalid": 0.3963 | |
| }, | |
| "repair": { | |
| "tasks_scored": 143, | |
| "tasks_excluded": 7, | |
| "a": { | |
| "valid": 0.5245, | |
| "faithful": 0.951, | |
| "success": 0.4965, | |
| "success_ci": [ | |
| 41.6, | |
| 57.7 | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| "b": { | |
| "valid": 0.6713, | |
| "faithful": 0.9161, | |
| "success": 0.6224, | |
| "success_ci": [ | |
| 54.1, | |
| 69.8 | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| "c": { | |
| "valid": 0.7902, | |
| "faithful": 0.8951, | |
| "success": 0.6993, | |
| "success_ci": [ | |
| 62.0, | |
| 76.8 | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| "unchanged_answers": { | |
| "a": 0.1867, | |
| "b": 0.0467, | |
| "c": 0.0 | |
| }, | |
| "mcnemar_c_vs_a": { | |
| "c_only": 37, | |
| "other_only": 8, | |
| "p": 0.0 | |
| }, | |
| "mcnemar_c_vs_b": { | |
| "c_only": 21, | |
| "other_only": 10, | |
| "p": 0.0708 | |
| }, | |
| "strict_binding_success": { | |
| "a": 0.4825, | |
| "b": 0.6154, | |
| "c": 0.6993 | |
| } | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| "claude-haiku-5-5": { | |
| "versionprobe_verified_closed_book": { | |
| "answered": 984, | |
| "items": 984, | |
| "item_acc": 0.4959, | |
| "item_ci": [ | |
| 46.5, | |
| 52.7 | |
| ], | |
| "pair_acc": 0.0915, | |
| "pair_ci": [ | |
| 6.9, | |
| 12.0 | |
| ], | |
| "acc_on_valid": 0.7378, | |
| "acc_on_invalid": 0.2541 | |
| }, | |
| "repair": { | |
| "tasks_scored": 143, | |
| "tasks_excluded": 7, | |
| "a": { | |
| "valid": 0.0699, | |
| "faithful": 0.986, | |
| "success": 0.0699, | |
| "success_ci": [ | |
| 3.8, | |
| 12.4 | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| "b": { | |
| "valid": 0.5455, | |
| "faithful": 0.8252, | |
| "success": 0.4615, | |
| "success_ci": [ | |
| 38.2, | |
| 54.3 | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| "c": { | |
| "valid": 0.7832, | |
| "faithful": 0.8881, | |
| "success": 0.6853, | |
| "success_ci": [ | |
| 60.5, | |
| 75.6 | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| "unchanged_answers": { | |
| "a": 0.8867, | |
| "b": 0.24, | |
| "c": 0.0 | |
| }, | |
| "mcnemar_c_vs_a": { | |
| "c_only": 90, | |
| "other_only": 2, | |
| "p": 0.0 | |
| }, | |
| "mcnemar_c_vs_b": { | |
| "c_only": 39, | |
| "other_only": 7, | |
| "p": 0.0 | |
| }, | |
| "strict_binding_success": { | |
| "a": 0.0699, | |
| "b": 0.4545, | |
| "c": 0.6853 | |
| } | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| "claude-sonnet-5-5": { | |
| "versionprobe_verified_closed_book": { | |
| "answered": 984, | |
| "items": 984, | |
| "item_acc": 0.5427, | |
| "item_ci": [ | |
| 51.1, | |
| 57.4 | |
| ], | |
| "pair_acc": 0.1829, | |
| "pair_ci": [ | |
| 15.1, | |
| 22.0 | |
| ], | |
| "acc_on_valid": 0.6728, | |
| "acc_on_invalid": 0.4126 | |
| }, | |
| "repair": { | |
| "tasks_scored": 143, | |
| "tasks_excluded": 7, | |
| "a": { | |
| "valid": 0.4406, | |
| "faithful": 0.9441, | |
| "success": 0.4196, | |
| "success_ci": [ | |
| 34.2, | |
| 50.2 | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| "b": { | |
| "valid": 0.6294, | |
| "faithful": 0.8392, | |
| "success": 0.5664, | |
| "success_ci": [ | |
| 48.5, | |
| 64.5 | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| "c": { | |
| "valid": 0.7902, | |
| "faithful": 0.8881, | |
| "success": 0.6923, | |
| "success_ci": [ | |
| 61.2, | |
| 76.2 | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| "unchanged_answers": { | |
| "a": 0.2933, | |
| "b": 0.1067, | |
| "c": 0.0 | |
| }, | |
| "mcnemar_c_vs_a": { | |
| "c_only": 46, | |
| "other_only": 7, | |
| "p": 0.0 | |
| }, | |
| "mcnemar_c_vs_b": { | |
| "c_only": 26, | |
| "other_only": 8, | |
| "p": 0.0029 | |
| }, | |
| "strict_binding_success": { | |
| "a": 0.4126, | |
| "b": 0.5594, | |
| "c": 0.6923 | |
| } | |
| } | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| "pooled_c_vs_a": { | |
| "c_only": 202, | |
| "other_only": 29, | |
| "p": 0.0, | |
| "models_with_gain": 4, | |
| "note": "pooling treats model-task pairs as independent; indicative only" | |
| }, | |
| "pooled_c_vs_b": { | |
| "c_only": 107, | |
| "other_only": 34, | |
| "p": 0.0, | |
| "models_with_gain": 4, | |
| "note": "pooling treats model-task pairs as independent; indicative only" | |
| } | |
| } |