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- Integrated land, water and marine area management with the aim of reducing non-climate stresses could be beneficial to wetlands, e.g. reduction of fragmentation of water systems, of land-based pollution into coastal systems such as coral reefs or mussel banks. |
- More efficient use of natural resources and restoration of degraded wetlands. |
However, there are likely also to be negative repercussions of specific adaptation options to climate change, examples include: |
- Active transportation of warm water-adapted aquatic species towards the poles could result in the extinction of local wetland species and large changes in ecosystem processes with economic consequences. |
- Negative interactions resulting from increased stocking of species and from relocation of recreational and aquaculture endeavours. |
- Negative effects related to secondary pressures of new hydrological engineering structures. |
Options to use wetlands in mitigation greenhouse gas emissions |
Between 1980 and 1998, the terrestrial ecosystems have been a small net sink for carbon dioxide, probably as a result indirect effects of human activities, including the CO2 fertilization effect and nitrogen deposition and possibly changing climate. Projections suggest that the additional terrestrial uptake of atmosphe... |
- Reforestation benefits could include an increase in the diversity of flora and fauna, except where biologically diverse non-forest ecosystems, e.g. grasslands, are replaced by forests consisting of single or only few species. |
- Avoiding deforestation can provide potentially large co-benefits, including conservation of biodiversity, soil resources and maintenance of non-timber forest products. |
- Increasing three cover can improve and protect soil quality in vulnerable areas and stabilize watershed flows, thus benefiting wetland functions. |
- One of the major sources of greenhouse gases methane and CO2 are peatland dominated wetlands. Actions that would avoid degradation of these wetlands and the potential release of these greenhouse gases would be an efficient mitigation option. |
We need to make changes in our priorities for water and protected areas management and more effective dealing with risks and uncertainties. The sector most likely to be affected by climate change is agriculture, especially in the Mediterranean, since that sector utilizes a high proportion of the available water and lan... |
With regard to wetlands, we still lack detailed information about the distribution, extent and use of wetlands, which makes it difficult to predict the impacts of climate change. Furthermore, changes in wetlands are normally dominated by changes in the water catchment basin. The most effective adaptations will be to mi... |
In order to cope with the impacts of climate change, and to mitigate them, a set of strategic priorities needs to be adopted: |
- The first priority should be to reduce the vulnerability of wetlands and surrounding human settlements to shifts in hydro-meteorological trends, increased variability and extreme events of floods, storms, droughts, earth slides, coastal erosion, and sea level rise. |
- A second priority will be to protect and restore ecosystems that provide critical resources and services to mitigate negative events. |
- A third priority is to close the gap between water supply and demand in order to achieve high efficiency in water resources management. |
It is unrealistic to expect adaptation will simply happen because it sounds like the right thing to do. It is necessary to involve the public in this process, to develop broad coalitions and to engage political leaders to support and communicate the adaptation process. |
For downstream protected areas, delta ecosystems and coastal wetlands, the following should be undertaken: |
- Inventory what there is in terms of biodiversity and wetland ecosystems, their hydrological functions and services. |
- Observe climate change at local level and predict further trends and scenarios regarding possible impacts on the landscape and underlying ecosystems. |
- Analyze the extent of the danger of floods, earth slides, droughts, storms and their possible damages to human and natural goods and infrastructure. |
- Identify how wetland ecosystems, providing natural infrastructure, can counteract such events or mitigate their effects. |
- Define spatial needs of wetland ecosystems that will fulfill such services, e.g. to prevent coastal erosion due to sea level rise, or other negative impacts. |
- Plan ahead to identify compensation space for protected areas likely to be lost and sites to execute restoration and rehabilitation projects. |
- Prepare local populations and stakeholders to be adaptive and to become more flexible in terms of spatial planning for protected areas and wetland ecosystem that fulfill crucial functions and provide services to humanity, as their needs are likely to evolve fast. |
Further reading |
- Ramsar COP8 DOC.11: Climate change and wetlands: impacts, adaptation and mitigation, downloadable at www.ramsar.org/cop8_docs_index_e.htm |
- Ramsar Resolution VIII.3: Climate change and wetlands: impacts, adaptation and mitigation, downloadable at www.ramsar.org/key_res_viii_index_e.htm |
- Change - adaptation of water resources management to climate change, downloadable at www.waterandnature.org/change.html |
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Thursday, July 26, 2012 |
Diplomatic dance, military advance |
The M23 rebellion took control of Rutshuru town for the second time in three weeks yesterday, sending Congolese soldiers running. While the army ran out of supplies, allegations immediately also began trickling in of Rwandan - and even Ugandan - support to the rebels, which had allowed them to break through the MONUSCO... |
Which begs the question: What has happened after on the international stage since the publication of the UN Group of Experts report, implicating Rwanda in support to the M23? |
The main shift was initially led by the United States, a longtime friend of Rwanda. Following the publication of the UN report, the US denounced Rwandan involvement and, on July 21st, announced it was cutting $200,000 in military aid to Kigali, and would consider other cuts in aid, as well. Other reprimands have been l... |
While Bill Clinton was effusive in praise for Rwanda last week during a visit, as was Tony Blair, very few western embassies in the Rwandan capital still doubt that their hosts are supporting the M23. This week, there were reports from diplomats that the United Kingdom, which in general has been much less aggressive th... |
Almost more important than aid is Rwanda's upcoming seat on the UN Security Council, which will give the country substantial diplomatic leverage. According to diplomats present at the African Union summit in Addis a few weeks ago, Kabila - who almost never attends these summits - had gone to the meeting planning to ral... |
So a lot has happened on the diplomatic circuit. And yet, the pressure on Rwanda has not been able to stem the fighting. Besides the M23 advances, other armed groups are also stirring, including in the foothills of the Ruwenzori mountains (Beni territory), as well as in Ituri. |
Saturday, July 21, 2012 |
US State Department's Statement on Rwanda |
The US State Department has just released a statement, obtained by Reuters, on cutting military aid to Rwanda. It's a symbolic amount of $200,000, but I think this is the first time Washington has cut aid to Kigali for political reasons. |
Below is the entire statement, and you can see Rwanda's response here, saying they will discuss the report line-by-line with the UN Group of Experts in Kigali next week: |
Hilary Fuller Renner |
Bureau of African Affairs |
U.S. Department of State |
Who are the Raia Mutomboki? |
While international media, including myself, have been poring over reports about the M23 rebellion, a far deadlier insurgency has been stewing in the lowland jungles a hundred kilometers to the west. There, along the border between North and South Kivu, a series of massacres has killed hundred of civilians since the en... |
Then, on Tuesday this week, the Raia took control of Walikale town, 150 km to the west of Goma, only to be kicked out several days later by the Congolese army. (See map below with very rough areas of influence of Raia Mutomboki) |
Which begs the question: Why? And: Who is the new nebulous group, dubbed the “Outraged Citizens” in Swahili? |
The Raia Mutomboki first appeared on the scene in 2005 in southern Shabunda territory, a good hundred and fifty kilometers south of the scene of the current fighting. The trigger was a massacre of 12 civilians by the FDLR in March 2005 in the jungle village of Kyoka, in Wakabango I (Shabunda). While FDLR abuses in this... |
In response, an ad hoc local defence group formed, reportedly with the blessing of civil society and customary leaders in the area. While the group remained extremely localized, the name of Jean Musumbu was often cited. Musumbu comes from the BaTali clan of Rega community and is from southern Shabunda. He is reportedly... |
The fact that the movement initially remained extremely localized is crucial to understanding the group – it formed as a self-defense group focused on local grievances, and initially had few links to provincial politicians. Also, Rega society is segmentary, meaning that traditional political authority rarely stretches ... |
Between 2005 and 2008, the Raia remained largely confined to southern Shabunda. They participated in the Goma peace conference in 2008, with two of their leaders, Devos Kagalaba – allegedly the military leader of the movements – and Salumu Kaseke, signing the Acte d’Engagement. |
By this time, however, they were largely dormant. They had been relatively successful in driving out the FDLR of Wakabango I. |
The second wave of mobilization came during the regimentation process in 2011, when the Congolese army began consolidating its units into regiments to undermine the influence of the ex-CNDP and eliminate ghost soldiers. In January 2011, Congolese army units left Bakisi, the northern chefferie of Shabunda, to merge with... |
This is when the customary chiefs of Bakisi, along with demobilized Mai-Mai from the area, began mobilizing young men. It is not clear whether there were any links with the original Raia Mutomboki movement, some 100km to the south, but the chiefs began taking on that name and initiating the youths with dawa. Raia Mutom... |
When the Congolese army redeployed to the area in late 2011, its units often collaborated with the Raia against the FDLR, taking advantage of the local militia’s knowledge of the forests there. However, tensions quickly rose between the two sides, especially due to the ex-CNDP troops within the Congolese army that were... |
As the Raia advanced and spread, its tactics became more brutal. They often attacked FDLR dependants, including women and children, mutilating them. FDLR soldiers and officers who deserted have told UN officials that the Raia Mutomboki were their biggest threat in the forests. Given these brutal tactics, it is not surp... |
In early 2012, the Raia jumped the dense Kahuzi-Biega national park and began appearing in the Bunyakiri area. Again, it is not clear how this movement occurred or who its instigators were, although there were reports of Rega militiamen appearing in the largely Tembo-populated areas of Bunyakiri. Several new massacres... |
In May 2012, the Raia apparently entered a new phase, spreading into North Kivu. This movement may have been linked with the redeployment of Congolese army troops toward the Rutshuru frontline with M23, leaving another vacuum for the FDLR and Raia to fill. Groups linked to the Raia Mutomboki appeared in southern Masisi... |
The southern Masisi militia is also different than the other Raia groups. It appears to be made up of former Mai-Mai under the command of Col. Delphin Mbaenda – former Mai-Mai Kifuafua – who just renamed themselves. Meanwhile, very little is known about the group that took Walikale, other than that they are led by peop... |
That last bit contradicts some of the allegations making the rounds in Goma recently. Leaders of the Hutu community, in particular, have been saying that the Raia have linked up with M23 and may even be receiving arms and ammunition from them or from Rwanda. The connection had allegedly been made by members of another ... |
These suspicions have not been confirmed, but it indicates what a nest of swirling rumors the region has become of late. |
So who are the Raia Mutomboki? There are more questions than answers at the moment. In particular, whether the Raia’s sudden rise in power is due to outside support, and whether they are, as some say, beginning to create more centralized, hierarchical structures. While the M23 link has been suggested by some, and fierc... |
Friday, July 20, 2012 |
Congo Siasa Etiquette |
Readers - I have had a very laissez-faire attitude towards comments on this blog, and I would like to keep it that way. Emotions, however, are running high, and some of the recent exchanges here have been pretty nasty. The last thing I would want is for this site to become a forum for insults or ethnic taunts. So pleas... |
I have also made my email available so you can alert me to offensive comments: jason [dot] stearns [at] yale [dot] edu. I don't have time to read all of the comments - sometimes there are over a hundred for a post - so please help me elevate the discourse here. |
Merci, asante, melesi, murakoze. |
Tuesday, July 17, 2012 |
Can a new military mission save the Kivus? |
Last week, news came over the wire that all the countries of the Great Lakes region had agreed to send a neutral force to attack the M23 and FDLR rebels. Can it be? Are we entering into a new phase of the Congolese crisis? |
Maybe, but we should reserve some healthy skepticism. |
First, a few words about the deal itself (it can be read here), which was the result of consultations among members of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR). The most important points are: |
• The ICGLR will work with the AU and the UN to create a neutral force "to eradicate M23, FDLR and all other Negative Forces in the Eastern DRC; |
• The Congolese and Rwandan governments should operationalize the Joint Verification Mechanism and open it to other ICGLR member states; |
• The UN should help create a new (old) team of Special Envoys led (again) by Benjamin Mkapa and Olusegun Obasanjo; |
• The ICLGR will set up its own Group of Experts to compile a report (on what?) for the Conference. |
I will skip over some of these points, although some of them, like sending Obasanjo back to the region, have raised many eyebrows. One might also wonder why we need another Group of Experts - is it to fact-check the UN Group of Experts? (Hint: yes). |
Of course, the most important decision was the creation of a new military mission. The details are supposed to be hammered out in a bilateral meeting in Uganda on August 7. |
The geo-politics is intriguing: It apparently took a lot of convincing to make the Rwandan government accept to give M23 the same "negative forces" status as the FDLR, and some say the Ugandan foreign minister helped pressure Rwanda into accepting this deal. The South Africans, who are now at the helm of the African Un... |
In any case, it would indeed be a sight to behold if AU troops were deployed to hunt down M23 officers in the hills of Runyoni. But will this ever happen? |
Deploying such a mission will require political will and deep pockets, two factors that have been in relatively short supply with regards to these questions in the past. As a reminder, the region wanted MONUC to have the role of hunting down the FDLR in its initial mandate, but the UN Security Council demurred. As rece... |
Given this past, did the ICLGR bite off more than it can chew? Some Congolese diplomats I have spoken with worry that by asking too much, the ICGLR is setting itself up for failure. Why not pursue the more achievable goal of creating mixed patrols out of Congolese, Rwanda and UN troops along the Rwandan border, across ... |
In the meantime, the diplomatic dance has continued. US Special Advisor Barry Walkley visited Kigali two weeks ago and met with foreign minister Louise Mushikwabo; the message was reportedly stern, and the answer unsurprising. There have also been calls between Washington and Kigali, and the US has cut a symbolic amoun... |
In the meantime, the situation is changing on the ground. According to several reports, a coalition of Mai-Mai and Raia Mutomboki took control of Walikale this morning. They suggest that Tsheka Ntaberi, a notorious Mai-Mai commander, figured in this coalition. This raises the possibility that the offensive is linked to... |
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