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Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
getp: The irrationality you are referring to is called the self-serving bias (SSB). I wrote a thesis on overconfidence for my master in behavioral economics, and the two are related. SSB is a well-documented bias. For instance, 90% of American drivers think they are in the top 50%. It's hard for people to fully appreci...
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
johnrob: This is human nature. It happens everywhere, the most commonplace example is a lottery ticket: that is a negative sum game. Venture capital is also a negative sum game (EDIT: I'm actually not sure about this, the winnings of top VCs might outweigh the losses of the majority).Risk hungry people will pay a pre...
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
aaronblohowiak: Being a quant has a certain appeal, but nothing (to me) is as appealing as creating tools that people use to accomplish things.Gambling on anticipating/creating the future is not an easy way to make money. However I agree that there is no wealth creation resulting from this (the increased liquidity of t...
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
rrival: I have a Series 3 (futures/forex) license and worked in that industry for about 6 months. It was like the bad parts of Boiler Room. I left when I realized the shop I was working for had no problem ripping off retail clients and allowing them to speculate with money they didn't have; clients had to sell their ho...
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
rrival: Wrt to the "why" of the market, without speculation, liquidity is far lower. Take a look at the Chicago Climate Exchange's (CCX) price fluctuations compared to a fall expiring wheat contract on the CME/CBOT - you can move the CCX with a small amount of money.
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
brentr: First, options and futures involve a sub-zero game. Money leaks out via commissions.Second, there are two types of players in this game. The first group is the speculators. They play the game for profit from the game. The second group is risk managers. They play the game for risk reduction. Speculators serve th...
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
Tichy: I am not sure that traders don't create value. Their job is to allocate money to the most useful company, I suppose?
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
icey: I'll save someone the task of googling Nicholas Taleb. I think this link has been here before, but even so, it's a good one:http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
jaydub: I think it has to do with the "superstar" phenomenon that Taleb discusses in Fooled by Randomness & The Black Swan. Being a dentist, you are not likely to see a multi-million dollar salary - yet you can definitely live comfortably.What I believe Taleb's philosophy _was_ (he now remarks in bold text: "Finance is...
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
bdr: Has anyone else read "Nonzero" by Robert Wright? It's one of two nonfiction books that have noticeably improved my understanding of the world, with almost daily benefits. (The other is The Black Swan.)
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
menloparkbum: Competitive sports are also zero-sum games. Traders are banking "jocks." They are traders because it is a zero sum game, and they think they have what it takes to win.
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
xlnt: speculation done right consists of creating knowledge about what resources will be in what demand in the future, and then saving resources that are cheap now but will be expensive later. doing this raises the price a bit now (b/c you buy a bunch) and lowers it then (b/c supply is higher then). you make money smoo...
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
davidmathers: Zero-sum depends on your perspective. Speaking strictly in theory here: a successful speculator creates value in the same way a hunter creates value when he sharpens his spear. By taking decision making power (money) away from people who make wrong decisions he "sharpens" the market and makes it a more us...
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
byrneseyeview: It isn't zero sum, any more than manufacturing is zero sum because all you did was expend energy rearranging the same old atoms.Trading well requires you to synthesize information that other people will act on. If oil is too cheap, you buy oil, this raises the price and alleviates the problem. The fact t...
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
mynameishere: Trading long is positive sum.
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
mattmaroon: It's not uniformly irrational or unprofitable to enter a zero sum game. I made a great living for over 5 years playing a zero sum game, and know lots of people who have done it for far longer. Not options trading though. That one in particular I can't speak to.It's often not that hard to prove within a reas...
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
andr: As a person that has been on both the positive and the negative side of the sum, I can tell you that most people don't really think about this when they get into the speculation.1) Serious quant trader types are rarely good at anything other than mathematics. Even if they are, if they are getting $500k+/yr it wou...
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
ad: Short answer: No, don't do it.Long answer: For anyone interested in this stuff I highly recommend the book Trading & Exchanges by Larry Harris. The book is about market microstructure, and the knowledge applies to any market whether it's equities or options or online gambling like intrade.com. It's a textbook, so...
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
dfranke: Options trading is not zero sum because the utility of money is not linear. When a rich person gives money to a poor person, the net gain is positive because the poor person can use the money to satisfy more basic needs that the rich person has already satisfied, and thus would otherwise have spent the money ...
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
ctkrohn: Speaking as a trader at a major Wall Street firm... if you want a job that will allow you to relax, or if you aren't interested in "working to stay ahead," it's best to stay away from trading. Seriously. The hours aren't quite as bad as the investment banking/corporate finance guys, but I work 13+ hours a da...
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
greatreorx: "When you enter the game, you are assuming that you are better than at least half of the other players."I think the difference is - at what point does that assumption become atleast somewhat provable. Shaquille O'Neal was probably an athletic 6'10" 280 lbs in high school. Just because the game of basketbal...
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?
daniel-cussen: In theory, a good speculator allocates money more efficiently. In 2004 this might have meant shorting Bear Stearns and buying stock in Google. Google could then sell stock to raise money, or take out a loan with its own stock as collateral, to pursue projects with the money. In theory, a good trader le...
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer?
run4yourlives: I don't know you, and I could probably churn out a bunch of semi-valuable tips, but instead of doing that, I'm going to suggest the following: Find a partner that has the business skills you lack in marketing/sales/promotion.I think you'll be much better off with someone like this worrying about these pr...
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer?
matthewking: Open your product to beta testers, and hopefully once the beta period stops, a certain percentage of the testers will have built a reliance upon your software, and sign up to the paid account.You can also use the testers for testimonials etc for your site. A referral fee will then help push your current cu...
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer?
bayes: I'm sure this is hopelessly old-fashioned, but we advertised. Our web business is aimed specifically at artists, so we advertised in print magazines aimed at artists, handed out fliers at art exhibitions etc.
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer?
brlewis: My first customer was not a paying customer. It was probably my 4th or 5th that actually paid. The first people are really beta testers.I knew people liked it when they asked what it cost.Disclaimer: I'm still a long way from profitable, and I'm not totally committed to the subscription model. In 2007 my su...
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer?
jakewolf: Adwords! It's converting profitably for a subscription site I'm helping out with. Can't wait to qualify for Google CPA - http://adwords.google.com/support/bin/answer.py?answer=60150...
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer?
whyleyc: Offer a compelling free service that reels users in and then sell added-extras in the subscription account that they can't live without - aka the "freemium" model.This is what 37Signals do so well, we operate a similar model at Zamzar and more recently Animoto seem to have struck gold with this approach - with...
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer?
izak30: My product is based on a subscription model. Here's what we did. First: Make something that people want and would be willing to pay for. Second: Tell everyone you know that's what your doing. Ask people who they know that might be interested. People are usually willing to help and give you a name or two. ...
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer?
skmurphy: The teams I know that were able to attract early customers had a sales pitch (a clear benefit, demonstrable difference from alternatives, and a reason to believe) and were "open for business" (had a company and a way to accept payment). It's hard to tell where you are in the cycle but those would be two place...
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer?
there: i posted here on hacker news and got 3 subscriptions out of it when my product first launched.http://corduroysite.com/
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer?
aantix: Find the biggest communities dedicated to the niche your software services. Big Boards is a good starting place. http://www.big-boards.com/Then jump into the forums and start posting responses. You don't want to come off spammy, but definitely try to slip in references to your site whenever applicable.
How did you do on the Android Dev Challenge?
davidw: Both my Hecl entry and my client's entry were "top quartile", but... yeah, top 25% is still more than 400 apps. A "quick and dirty crappy" app that I also sent in for the hell of it placed in the 50-75% quartile, meaning that the last quartile was probably full of applications that simply didn't work.
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer?
aneesh: Are you solving a real problem for someone? Whose problem are you solving? You should have a flesh-and-blood person you can point to (not just "surfers", or "facebook users"). If you don't actually know someone who has that problem, how do you know people are willing to pay for it?So I'd say you have to know...
How did you do on the Android Dev Challenge?
DenisM: It's about time to get over it and move to something productive - until Android ships devices in a quantity it's just a waste of time to spend any time on it.There are other phones with install base out there: Blackberry, Windows Mobile, IPhone, Symbian, Brew, J2ME.
How did you do on the Android Dev Challenge?
eugenejen: My entry got the same quartile as martythemaniak's app. I think my stuff is a quick & dirty app to prove an idea. It took me 40 hours to implement it.
How did you do on the Android Dev Challenge?
aschobel: Nice! Mine didn't score as well.On the surface it wasn't that much different than the default ListActivity.Like an iceberg all the interesting bits are underneath. It allowed for async updates and other neat things.Also this is a client for a product that hasn't been publicly released, so it's akin to submitt...
ASK HN: What is the logic that links would expire on HN?
eru: As far as I know they store a continuation for each page you view. And after some time they just delete the continuation.(Please look up call/cc if you want to learn more about this.)
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer?
clintavo: At the risk of stating the obvious . . . .Don't build your app and then look for your first customer.Find your customer first, find a need, and then build an app that fills that need.Listen carefully to things people you know say, if you're paying attention, you will hear tons of needs waiting to be filled.
Where to look for info on E-Commerce websites?
lanej0: It's hard to gauge your level of expertise from your post, but if you're a fairly non-technical person (don't mean to offend), you may be better off looking at some sort of pre-built option. Amazon offers "stores" where people can go set up their own shop. eBay's another option (although they're kind of ghett...
Is it possible to think well with noise?
edw519: The foam earplugs never worked for me.This did:http://www.amazon.com/Alpha-Relaxation-System-Active/dp/B000...
Is it possible to think well with noise?
tlrobinson: It's certainly possible. I have this weird ability to basically turn off my ears when I'm concentrating on something.It can be annoying though, since if someone is trying to get my attention they'll have to yell my name maybe 10 times.
Is it possible to think well with noise?
epi0Bauqu: I have no problem working with some types of noise, such as noise from a bunch of people doing random things, like at an airport or coffee shop. But repeated annoying noises, like a jackhammer or dog barking, really, well, annoys me.Two solutions.1) Music. Turn it up or wear headphones.2) Noise canceling h...
Is it possible to think well with noise?
lbrandy: a nice pair of over-ear noise canceling headphones? Yes, low music (even classical) is more distracting than silence, but you'll get used to it (like I did). And, it's certainly better than outside noise.
Is it possible to think well with noise?
mhb: How about the earmuff style?http://www.amazon.com/Peltor-Professional-Canceling-Earmuff-...
Is it possible to think well with noise?
dcurtis: A couple of years ago, I discovered Etymotic ER-4p headphones. They block out practically all the ambient noise. When I need to concentrate, I put them on and listen to some calm music.I've never liked earplugs, but the triple-flange thing on the end of the Etymotics is remarkably comfortable.
Is it possible to think well with noise?
Harkins: I find it's only possible when I really like what I'm working on. If I do, the rest of the world ceases to exist. I could probably work in the middle of a construction or demolition site for all it would matter.If I don't like my coworkers, or the project is a stupid time-waster, or my boss is a jerk, or I oth...
Have you used iptables to prevent procrastination?
xlnt: i hear comcast already provides a free service something like this
Have you used iptables to prevent procrastination?
bartman: I actually thought about doing this quite a few times, but ran off procastinating instead of reading the man page. Will try, thanks!
Is it possible to think well with noise?
Prrometheus: My roommate can only study with horrible emo rock music turned up to concert-level volume. Finals week is unbearable.
Have you used iptables to prevent procrastination?
b3eck: Please correct me if I'm wrong, but here's a guess at a Mac OS X version of the commands: sudo ipfw add 1 pipe 1 src-port 80 sudo ipfw pipe 1 config bw 500Byte/s
Is it possible to think well with noise?
coderrr: i don't have a suggestion for a solution, but you should read this about the effects of noise pollution:http://www.noiseandhealth.org/article.asp?issn=1463-1741;yea...
Is it possible to think well with noise?
markbao: White noise. Free generators available in the form of software, or just a .wav that you can loop. Works well in noisy environments, and the white noise blankets all noise so that you get used to it and it eventually fades out - for SOME people. For others, it's just annoying.
Have you used iptables to prevent procrastination?
kogir: Or, if you need full access (including web) to the local subnet, but wish to restrict your internet access, just remove your default gateway. I do this regularly with good results.
Is it possible to think well with noise?
mechanical_fish: In Peopleware Demarco and Lister cite 1960s-era research from Cornell which found that having music on in the background did not interfere with logic or arithmetical thinking, but reduced people's ability to make creative leaps. Even if you think you're not listening to the music, part of your brain is...
Is it possible to think well with noise?
mynameishere: Or should I continue knocking on people's doors and complaining?This will only drive you to madness. You have a few practical options, mostly already covered:1) White (actually pink) noise generation. Cheapest way is to get a box fan and let it run.2) Active noise cancellation. You can get Bose headphones...
Is it possible to think well with noise?
rms: You could try sound insulating your apartment with fiberglass and egg cartons.If you don't like in-ear sound protection, what about the full size over ear ones people use when they are shooting guns?
Have you used iptables to prevent procrastination?
leisuresuit: just put the sites you waste most of your time on in your hosts file like this:reddit.com 127.0.0.1problem solved, forever.
Tell people about your idea, or keep it to yourself?
bigtoga: A healthy dose of skepticism works well for me. I'm happy to share certain details with close friends and colleagues but less likely to divulge critical processes to someone who I meet off of craigslist.I will say that ideas are more sacred when they are still only ideas. Once I've executed on the idea, I'm ha...
Tell people about your idea, or keep it to yourself?
blogimus: If you are by yourself, I firmly believe you need someone you trust to talk to. Everyone really needs a sounding board. I suggest that you try to find a partner or two. I'm kind of in the same boat and am contacting key people who I trust in my network for feedback and interest.
Tell people about your idea, or keep it to yourself?
xenoterracide: depends on the product. the likelyhood of competition, and what kind of secrets you are devulging. I wouldn't tell people how to make your product. But, I believe someone said it on a thread recently (maybe blog entry) that not talking is overrated (paraphrase). Don't give up patent secrets or what your ...
Tell people about your idea, or keep it to yourself?
ideas101: it depends whom you are talking to - be smart enough to get alert if someone starts asking too many critical questions (especially about business model) ... also you can share only the outline of the idea (to get a response) rather than sharing the real meat. sometime you can also keep it very generic and sim...
Tell people about your idea, or keep it to yourself?
jonnytran: I used to not tell anyone much more than a brief gist. But as time and projects have gone by, I'm starting to switch viewpoints.Basically, 90% of the people I talk to couldn't implement my idea or simply don't care. Those that could implement it won't, b/c they think they have better ideas. Of the few who...
Tell people about your idea, or keep it to yourself?
bkbleikamp: i think this is a good example of why a search box on HN might be helpful - i have seen this discussed multiple times.(not attacking the poster, just pointing out a benefit of search, i think it's a very good question for discussion)
Erlang and network connections?
davidw: In the normal case, Erlang is only one OS process. It handles everything via select. The only limits are OS limits on open sockets and things like that.
Tell people about your idea, or keep it to yourself?
michael_dorfman: I don't want to sound too old fashioned, but I think the key question you should be asking yourself about your "groundbreaking" idea is "What are the barriers to entry?" If the idea is such that anyone with a decent technical background could implement it upon hearing it, you're likely to get instant ...
F/OSS Build Automation for C#
kleevr: link: http://kleevr.blogspot.com/2008/05/c-build-automation-using-...
Erlang and network connections?
arete: Most operating systems have some highly efficient way of handling many open network connections, for example epoll on linux, kqueue on xBSD, event ports on solaris. These are much more efficient than select() with large numbers of open sockets and the Erlang VM will use the appropriate one for the host OS when r...
Tell people about your idea, or keep it to yourself?
car: Before talking about your idea to others, consider applying for a patent, if this is a feasible option (e.g. business process patent). Then it could eventually be better protected, and pose a barrier to entry for competitors. Make sure to only disclose your idea under NDA before you file the patent application.Onc...
Tell people about your idea, or keep it to yourself?
melvinram: I prefer to be open about things. For example: http://48hrlaunch.wordpress.com/2008/05/18/which-problem-sho...Here's how I look at things: * Most people won't think your idea is as good as you think it is... because it's probably a lot more evolved in your head than what you're saying out loud. * People who ...
F/OSS Build Automation for C#
DenisM: Build automation is not a waste of time, it's a sound practice among others. See The Joel Test: 12 Steps to Better Codehttp://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/fog0000000043.html 1. Do you use source control? 2. Can you make a build in one step? 3. Do you make daily builds? 4. Do you have a bug databas...
F/OSS Build Automation for C#
icey: I've implemented systems using CruiseControl.Net and have had pretty decent luck with it.It works fine with SVN.Here is a good book to get you started:http://www.amazon.com/Expert-Delivery-Using-CruiseControl-NE...
F/OSS Build Automation for C#
bigtoga: First question: are you using source code control? If not, how many developers are on your team? If it's just you and you don't need/want-to use source code control, consider batch file builds scheduled as Scheduled Tasks in XP/Vista/OS.
Collaborative Filtering + Interweb == Good Times?
series: Diggin' this project so far.. makes it convenient to catch up on what's happening 'now' on the web..
Collaborative Filtering + Interweb == Good Times?
tomwsmf: I stopped hitting slashrot and digg simply because the noise level was unsquelchable. SO off I have been in the land of Greader, my own little feeds set up with some slight input from googles friends linkages...but this...this is coolBeing able to add your own feeds, thats great. I am so sick to death of readi...
Collaborative Filtering + Interweb == Good Times?
tree: I recently joined "Of The Now" and so far I like it. I like that I can sort through all of the titles in one spot rather than having to go to several different sites. I also like that I am basically building my own feed of news that I am interested in rather than what other people think I might be interested in...
Collaborative Filtering + Interweb == Good Times?
bosshog: Like the simple design. The healthcare link isn't too solid at the mo.http://news.80concepts.com/public/category/science/healthcar...Why is it that I can't read comments without logging in?
Tell people about your idea, or keep it to yourself?
oldgregg: I run into people all the time who smirk "sorry, its a NDA thing" -- whatever dude. In all likelihood your idea isn't that good. Secretly you don't want to tell anybody because they might shut you down. So nobody will find out about it and you'll just be smug and self-righteous until you wake up one day and r...
F/OSS Build Automation for C#
mullr: You have two major choices, NAnt and MSBuild. I recommend you learn MSBuild and how to deal with visual studio with it. That way you'll be more effective in the long run.Unless, of course, you're not using the MS toolchain. Then NAnt is the only real choice.
Where to look for info on E-Commerce websites?
kp212: Thanks for the tip. I started Googling for open source e-commerce packages. I actually have some background in coding, I wrote a couple of smaller projects over the past 2 years, so I am comfortable with php/html, and I think my illustrator/shop skills are coming together now as well. I actually built a version...
Is it possible to think well with noise?
entelarust: for some reason i always work the best in a chaotic environment (i.e. tv, people, music, etc)
Collaborative Filtering + Interweb == Good Times?
DenisM: Why do you insist on verifying email address? Are you afraid that a bot will join your site and will find other bots with similar interests? :-)Seriously, what is the threat you are protecting against which makes it worth it doubling your bounce rate?
What Linux-distro to learn about Linux?
graywh: Almost every Linux distro is free as in gratis and libre.Start with something easy to install and maintain like Ubuntu and go from there.
What Linux-distro to learn about Linux?
davidw: Ubuntu's pretty good, and can be used both on your desktop and as a server, meaning you get to run exactly the same code in both places, which is very nice for testing purposes.
What Linux-distro to learn about Linux?
olefoo: Are you looking to learn about operating systems, or are you more interested in current linux desktops?If you want current Linux Desktop distros try both Ubuntu and Fedora and whichever one you feel more comfortable with will work.If you're more interested in going deep under the hood with a server operating sy...
What Linux-distro to learn about Linux?
ahold: Try archlinux. It's in the middle.
Sites/non-web things you use?
edw519: Hacker News, Google, Yahoo email
Sites/non-web things you use?
andr: congrats, that is the most abstract question in HN history!
Sites/non-web things you use?
luct: In no particular order: 1) BBC News, Twitter, Digg 2) Friends, Uni Library, Lecturers 3) Twitter, Digg, BBC iPlayer 4) Friends, Wiki, Google
Sites/non-web things you use?
dmix: Reddit, Hacker News, Google (Reader)Answered all 4.
Sites/non-web things you use?
auston: 1. Google, HN, Gmail2. My books at home, Google3. Digg, iChat, HN4. Google, iChat, Particular Docs for whatever I'm working with (PHP, Rails, Python, GAE, JS, ETC)
Sites/non-web things you use?
mindcrime: 1. programming.reddit.com, Slashdot, Hacker News(Honorable mention: java.net, theserverside.com and freshmeat.net)2. my personal library, Borders, Barnes & Noble3. Sluggy Freelance, User Friendly, Dilbert (Honorable Mention: BOFH )4. TriJUG Mail List, TriLUG Mail List, saloon.javaranch.com
Sites/non-web things you use?
markbao: 1) Hacker News (addiction as of 3 weeks ago), Facebook, Wikipedia (honorable mention: TechCrunch, TechMeme)2) Wikipedia, personal library, town library3) Twitter, AIM, Facebook (honorable mention: Wikipedia)4) Google, php.net/manual, irc.freenode.net
Any way to get back in Google AdSense's good books?
jakewolf: #1 - Never call the cops on yourself.#2 - File an appeal https://www.google.com/adsense/support/bin/request.py?contac...Good luck.
Sites/non-web things you use?
brooksbp: 1) Hacker News, Google Reader, Lambda the Ultimate2) Computer books, Steve Yegge, Paul Graham, Knuth3) Digg, Google Reader, Facebook4) Google, Official Docs/Specs (for projects/languages), irc.freenode.net
Sites/non-web things you use?
modoc: 1) Hacker News, Slashdot, BBC2) Friends, Books, Google3) OverheardInNewYork, CNN.com, Tivo Desktop(watching tv)4) Google, Friends, seamframework.org
Any way to get back in Google AdSense's good books?
bapbap: I did file an appeal but got exactly the same template email, after that, they never replied.It does state in the T&C's somewhere that you have to tell them about it and advice on net suggested you should do the same, maybe I shouldn't have paid attention to that!
Is a distcc style plugin for professional workgroups an idea whose time has come?
Hoff: Mac OS X has this baked into Xcode, as well as general grid computing capabilities. This implemented with distcc and Bonjour (zeroconf), and Xgrid, respectively.Linux, too, can implement this.Operating systems as far back was Windows' arguable predecessor OpenVMS have distributed batch capabilities with clusteri...
Is a distcc style plugin for professional workgroups an idea whose time has come?
jgrahamc: Two things to read about:1. Electric Cloud (which is a company I started) that does parallel compilation (amongst other things) for mostly very large teams.2. Xoreax which does something like your idea. Typically for smaller teams.
Is a distcc style plugin for professional workgroups an idea whose time has come?
jrockway: The plugin should be smart about avoiding the user noticing that other users are compiling software on their machine. Locking itself to a single processor is a good start, and refusing jobs if the user on the local machine is compiling code or doing some other processor intensive activity.The plugin should do...