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AR6_WGII
1,196
20
At the same time, there is increasing evidence that successful adapta- tion depends on equitable development and climate justice; for exam- ple, gender inequality (SDG 5) and discrimination (SDG 16) are among the barriers to effective adaptation
high
2
train
4,901
AR6_WGII
1,196
24
They do not have uniform climate risk profiles, and not all adaptations are equally appropriate in all contexts (Nurse et al., 2014)
high
2
train
4,902
AR6_WGII
1,198
7
Recent literature provides evidence that impacts of climate change together with non-climatic drivers can create poverty– environment traps that may increase the probability of long-term and chronic poverty (Figure 8.4; Hallegatte et al., 2015; Djalante et al., 2020; Malhi et al., 2020; McCloskey et al., 2020)
high
2
train
4,903
AR6_WGII
1,205
5
This literature underscores that approaches to assess resilience, vulnerability and human well-being include global assessments that can inform strategies and priority settings for adaptation and risk reduction in the context of climate change
high
2
train
4,904
AR6_WGII
1,212
12
There is high agreement that, with global warming of about 3°C, such undermining of poverty reduction efforts will intensify and more regions will face development setbacks due to the spatial and temporal expansion of climate hazards, including the further erosion of capital that enables people to develop adaptive capacities
high
2
train
4,905
AR6_WGII
1,212
19
Reducing vulnerability to climate change is therefore indispensable for climate justice and just transitions
high
2
train
4,906
AR6_WGII
1,217
3
The sale of property particularly reduces the asset base, creates long-term vulnerabilities to future events and can trigger chronic poverty
high
2
train
4,907
AR6_WGII
1,217
5
In South Asia, there is robust evidence of economic impacts of climate change (Cao et al., 2021), for example in the Sundarbans (a transboundary ecosystem with components in both India and Bangladesh, with the problem of unproductive livelihoods being common across residents of both countries) observations show local livelihoods are rapidly becoming unproductive (loss of fish, and increasing salination making agriculture increasingly difficult) (Ghosh, 2018); conditions that are exacerbated by climate change impacts
high
2
train
4,908
AR6_WGII
1,218
27
Non-economic losses are particularly relevant for understanding adverse consequences of climate change on the poor and most vulnerable population groups
high
2
train
4,909
AR6_WGII
1,220
4
Examples of livelihood shifts across Asia and Southeast Asia (e.g., Bangladesh, India, Philippines, Vietnam) include rural communities in coastal areas, urban settlements that are experiencing economic losses
high
2
train
4,910
AR6_WGII
1,220
25
Climate change-related extreme weather events, such as typhoons, floods, and droughts, can have detrimental impacts on crop production
high
2
train
4,911
AR6_WGII
1,220
28
In Africa, many communities already experience drought- and flood- related disasters
high
2
train
4,912
AR6_WGII
1,220
30
Food security and agriculture productivity are examples of livelihood resources most at risk to climate hazards (see Figure 8.2)
high
2
train
4,913
AR6_WGII
1,222
10
The multiple shocks of extreme events reduce crop yields, destroy homes, and lead to loss of infrastructure and displacement
high
2
train
4,914
AR6_WGII
1,230
8
In the Himalayas (part of the Hindu Kush Himalaya, HKH) temperature warming is expected to increase up to 2°C by 2050
high
2
train
4,915
AR6_WGII
1,230
22
Likewise, in the Amazon basin, climate change hazards of severe droughts and floods
high
2
train
4,916
AR6_WGII
1,232
25
The increase in global temperature level up to 2°C will exacerbate food and water insecurity in the Amazon (Betts et al., 2018; Hoegh- Guldberg et al., 2018)
medium
1
train
4,917
AR6_WGII
1,233
15
The categories in Table 8.5 also represent important future compounding and complex risks that can emerge due to maladaptation
high
2
train
4,918
AR6_WGII
1,236
12
In SRCCL (IPCC, 2019a), land degradation and climate change compounded to highly expose the livelihoods of the poor to climate hazards and caused food insecurity (high confidence), migration, conflict and loss of cultural heritage
low
0
train
4,919
AR6_WGII
1,246
2
Some authors suggest including Indigenous knowledge in the IPCC assessment process should be of high priority, as it is becoming increasingly relevant for climate services
high
2
train
4,920
AR6_WGII
1,252
7
CSA, carbon-forestry programmes and the water–energy–climate nexus show trade-offs across levels and sectors with identified winners and losers
high
2
train
4,921
AR6_WGII
1,254
20
Depending on the farming and pastoral systems and level of development, reductions in the emissions intensity of livestock products may lead to absolute reductions in GHG emissions (IPCC, 2019a)
medium
1
train
4,922
AR6_WGII
1,254
21
Significant synergies exist between adaptation and mitigation, for example, through SLM approaches
high
2
train
4,923
AR6_WGII
1,260
10
Meanwhile, the livelihood resources that are globally at greatest risk include people’s bodily health, food security and agricultural productivity
high
2
train
4,924
AR6_WGII
1,260
11
Evidence suggests that the fundamental challenge of climate change to livelihoods is that rising temperatures, drought and other hazards endanger human life, and the lives of plants and animals that humans rely on to survive
high
2
train
4,925
AR6_WGII
1,261
6
This chapter builds on AR5 and the IPCC SR 1.5°C on key limits to the adaptation of natural and social systems that are compounded by the effects of poverty and inequality, such as on water scarcity, ecosystems alteration and degradation, coastal cities in relation to sea level rise, cyclones and coastal erosion, food systems and human health
high
2
train
4,926
AR6_WGII
1,261
7
Climate change risks could have substantial negative impacts on climate-sensitive livelihoods of smallholder farmers, fisheries communities, Indigenous People, urban poor and informal settlements, with limits to adaptation evidenced in the loss income, ecosystems, health and increasing migration
high
2
train
4,927
AR6_WGII
1,261
9
For instance, a hard limit associated with losses of coral reefs in a 1.5°C warmer world will lead to substantial loss of income and livelihoods for coastal communities (high confidence), including loss of culture- and place-based attachment
medium
1
train
4,928
AR6_WGII
1,261
11
Their threshold will affect residents of Arctic regions dependent on hunting and fishing livelihoods
high
2
train
4,929
AR6_WGII
1,261
14
Thus, without sustainable, equitable and urgent adaptation measures, maladaptation risks are likely to further increase vulnerability, marginalisation and ecological tipping points among the poor within countries
medium
1
train
4,930
AR6_WGII
1,300
2
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C is expected to substantially reduce damages to African economies, agriculture, human health, and ecosystems compared to higher levels of global warming
high
2
train
4,931
AR6_WGII
1,300
16
Finance has not targeted more vulnerable countries
high
2
train
4,932
AR6_WGII
1,300
19
Increasing public and private finance flows by billions of dollars per year, increasing direct access to multilateral funds, strengthening project pipeline development and shifting more finance to project implementation would help realise transformative adaptation in Africa
high
2
train
4,933
AR6_WGII
1,300
20
Concessional finance will be required for adaptation in low-income settings
high
2
train
4,934
AR6_WGII
1,300
24
For example, climate change adaptation benefits pandemic preparedness, ‘One Health’ approaches benefit human and ecosystem health, and ecosystem-based adaptation can deliver adap- tation and emissions mitigation
high
2
train
4,935
AR6_WGII
1,301
18
This Report also uses the term ‘likely range’ to indicate that the assessed likelihood of an outcome lies within the 17–83% probability range.Africa), increasing exposure to pluvial and riverine flooding
high
2
train
4,936
AR6_WGII
1,302
20
Although yield declines for some crops may be partially compensated by increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, global warming above 2°C will result in yield reductions for staple crops across most of Africa compared to 2005 yields (e.g., 20–40% decline in west African maize yields), even when considering adaptation options and increasing CO 2
medium
1
train
4,937
AR6_WGII
1,302
32
Above 2°C of global warming, distribution and seasonal transmission of vector-borne diseases is expected to increase, exposing tens of millions more people, mostly in west, east and southern Africa
high
2
train
4,938
AR6_WGII
1,302
33
Above 1.5°C risk of heat-related deaths rises sharply
medium
1
train
4,939
AR6_WGII
1,302
34
Above 2°C global warming, thousands to tens of thousands of additional cases of diarrhoeal disease are projected, mainly in west, central and east Africa
medium
1
train
4,940
AR6_WGII
1,302
38
High population growth and urbanisation in low-elevation coastal zones will be a major driver of exposure to sea level rise in the next 50 years
high
2
train
4,941
AR6_WGII
1,303
19
Further increasing CO 2 concentrations could increase woody plant cover, but increasing aridity could counteract this, destabilising forest and peatland carbon stores in central Africa
low
0
train
4,942
AR6_WGII
1,303
20
Changes in vegetation cover could occur rapidly if tipping points are crossed {9.6.1, 9.6.2, 9.8.2} African biodiversity loss is projected to be widespread and escalating with every 0.5°C increase above present-day global warming
high
2
train
4,943
AR6_WGII
1,303
30
Most African heritage sites are neither prepared for, nor adapted to, future climate change
high
2
train
4,944
AR6_WGII
1,304
19
Integrated water management measures including sub-national financing, demand management through subsidies, rates and taxes, and sustainable water technologies can reduce water insecurity caused by either drought or floods
medium
1
train
4,945
AR6_WGII
1,304
22
Climate information services, institutional capacity building, secure land tenure, and strategic financial investment can help overcome these barriers to adaptation
medium
1
train
4,946
AR6_WGII
1,305
3
The contribution of Africa is among the lowest of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions responsible for human-induced climate change and it has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions currently
high
2
train
4,947
AR6_WGII
1,305
4
Yet Africa has already experienced widespread impacts from human-induced climate change
high
2
train
4,948
AR6_WGII
1,305
10
Hot days, hot nights and heatwaves have become more frequent; heatwaves have also become longer. Drying is projected particularly for west and southwestern Africa
high
2
test
4,949
AR6_WGII
1,309
15
Climate-related research in Africa faces severe funding constraints with unequal funding relationships between countries and with research partners in Europe and North America
high
2
train
4,950
AR6_WGII
1,310
2
These unequal funding relations influence inequalities in climate-related research design, participation and dissemination between African researchers and researchers from high-income countries outside Africa, in ways that can reduce adaptive capacity in Africa
very high
3
train
4,951
AR6_WGII
1,311
6
In scenarios with low adaptation (that is largely localised and incremental), the transition to high risk—widespread and severe impacts—has already begun at the current level of global warming for biodiversity loss (high confidence), and begins below 1.5°C global warming for both food production (medium confidence) and mortality and morbidity from heat and infectious disease
high
2
train
4,952
AR6_WGII
1,316
7
Adaptation costs in Africa are expected to rise rapidly as global warming increases
high
2
train
4,953
AR6_WGII
1,316
23
The amounts of finance being mobilised internationally to support adaptation in African countries are billions of US dollars less than adaptation cost estimates, and finance has targeted mitigation more than adaptation
high
2
train
4,954
AR6_WGII
1,322
3
In Africa, placing cross-sectoral approaches at the core of CRD provides significant opportunities to deliver large benefits and/or avoided damages across multiple sectors including water, health, ecosystems and economies
very high
3
train
4,955
AR6_WGII
1,327
1
Despite these challenges, the inclusive nature of co-production has had a positive influence on the uptake of CS into decision making where it has been applied (Table 9.4; Figure 9.12; Vincent et al., 2018; Vogel et al., 2019; Carter et al., 2020; Chiputwa et al., 2020)
medium
1
train
4,956
AR6_WGII
1,331
20
Most African countries are expected to experience high temperatures unprecedented in their recent history earlier in this century than generally wealthier, higher latitude countries
high
2
test
4,957
AR6_WGII
1,336
19
A shift to a later onset and end of the west African monsoon is also reported in west Africa and Sahel
low
0
train
4,958
AR6_WGII
1,337
2
Meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought in the region has increased in frequency since the 1950s
medium
1
train
4,959
AR6_WGII
1,337
6
Although there are uncertainties in rainfall projections over the Sahel (Klutse et al., 2018; Gutiérrez et al., 2021), CMIP6 models project monsoon rainfall amounts to increase by approximately 2.9% per degree of warming (Jin et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2020a), therefore, at higher levels of warming and towards the end of the century, a wetter monsoon is projected in the eastern Sahel
medium
1
train
4,960
AR6_WGII
1,337
16
According to CMIP6 and CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) models, the annual average number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35°C will increase between 14–27 days at GWL 2°C and 33–59 days at GWL 3°C above the 61–63 days for 1995 –2014 (Gutiérrez et al., 2021; Ranasinghe et al., 2021)
high
2
train
4,961
AR6_WGII
1,337
21
There is some evidence of drying since the mid-20th century through decreased mean rainfall and increased precipitation deficits (Gutiérrez et al., 2021), as well as increases in meteorological, agricultural and ecological drought
medium
1
train
4,962
AR6_WGII
1,338
3
At GWL 3°C and GWL 4.4°C, an increased mean annual rainfall of 10–25% is projected by regional climate models (Coppola et al., 2014; Pinto et al., 2015) and the intensity of extreme precipitation will increase
high
2
train
4,963
AR6_WGII
1,339
5
Heavy rainfall events are projected to increase over the region at global warming of 2°C and higher
high
2
train
4,964
AR6_WGII
1,339
15
Since the 1960s, decreasing precipitation trends have been detected over the South African winter rainfall region (high confidence) and the far eastern parts of South Africa
low
0
train
4,965
AR6_WGII
1,339
19
Mean annual rainfall in the summer rainfall region of South Afria is projected to decrease by 10–20%, accompanied by an increase in the number of consecutive dry days during the rainy season under RCP8.5. The western parts of the region are projected to become drier, with increasing drought frequency, intensity and duration likely under RCP8.5
high
2
test
4,966
AR6_WGII
1,340
2
There is a projected decrease in the number of tropical cyclones making landfall in the region at 1°C, 2°C and 3°C of global warming, however, they are projected to become more intense with higher wind speeds so when they do make landfall the impacts are expected to be high
medium
1
train
4,967
AR6_WGII
1,340
25
Reducing emissions and limiting warming to lower levels reduces risk to these systems
high
2
train
4,968
AR6_WGII
1,341
4
In Africa, IKLK are exceptionally rich in ecosystem-specific knowledge, with the potential to enhance the management of natural hazards and climate variability
high
2
train
4,969
AR6_WGII
1,344
18
Increased temperature, changes in rainfall and reduced wind speed altered the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, affecting water quality and productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish
high
2
train
4,970
AR6_WGII
1,344
27
Mangroves, seagrasses and coral reefs support nursery habitats for fish, sequester carbon, trap sediment and provide shoreline protection (Ghermandi et al., 2019). Climate change is compromising these ecosystem services
medium
1
test
4,971
AR6_WGII
1,345
11
The magnitude and extent of local extinctions predicted across Africa increase substantially under all future GWLs
high
2
train
4,972
AR6_WGII
1,347
2
With increasing warming, there is a lower likelihood species can migrate rapidly enough to track shifting climates, increasing global extinction risk and biodiversity loss across more of Africa
high
2
train
4,973
AR6_WGII
1,347
12
At 1.5°C of global warming, mangroves will be exposed to sedimentation and sea level rise, while seagrass ecosystems will be most affected by heat extremes
high
2
train
4,974
AR6_WGII
1,347
14
Over 90% of east African coral reefs are projected to be destroyed by bleaching at 2°C of global warming
very high
3
train
4,975
AR6_WGII
1,349
8
This declining carbon storage may be offset by CO 2 fertilization
low
0
train
4,976
AR6_WGII
1,349
13
Climate change is projected to change patterns of invasive species spread
high
2
train
4,977
AR6_WGII
1,349
21
Climate change is already negatively affecting tourism in Africa
high
2
train
4,978
AR6_WGII
1,350
8
Climate change and land use change will interact to influence the effectiveness of African protected areas
high
2
train
4,979
AR6_WGII
1,352
9
Maintaining existing indigenous forest and indigenous forest restoration is a win–win, maximising benefits to biodiversity, adaptation and mitigation (Griscom et al., 2017; Watson et al., 2018; Lewis et al., 2019)
high
2
train
4,980
AR6_WGII
1,352
10
Yet many areas targeted by AFR100 erroneously mark Africa’s open ecosystems (grasslands, savannas, shrublands) as degraded and suitable for afforestation (Figure Box 9.3.1; (Veldman et al., 2015; Bond et al., 2019)
high
2
train
4,981
AR6_WGII
1,353
1
General principles for this type of monitoring were developed for Lake Tanganyika (Plisnier et al., 2018) and could be applied to develop harmonised, regional monitoring of African lakes, rivers and wetlands (Tamatamah and Mwedzi, 2020) 9.6.4.3 Marine and Coastal Ecosystems Marine and coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, seagrass and coral reefs provide storm protection and food security for coastal communities
high
2
train
4,982
AR6_WGII
1,353
18
However, in southern Africa as a whole, river flows have mostly decreased
high
2
train
4,983
AR6_WGII
1,353
22
Observed climate changes in Africa (see Section 9.5) have led to changes in river flow and runoff (Dallas and Rivers-Moore, 2014; Wolski et al., 2014) and high fluctuations in lake levels
high
2
train
4,984
AR6_WGII
1,355
15
In some higher altitude regions, like the Niger Inland Delta in west Africa, river flows and water levels are expected to increase
medium
1
train
4,985
AR6_WGII
1,355
17
In the Volta River system, increasing wet season river flows (+36% by 2090s) and Volta lake outflow (+5% by 2090s) are anticipated under RCP8.5
medium
1
train
4,986
AR6_WGII
1,356
9
Changes in the amplitude, timing and frequency of extreme events such as droughts and floods will continue to affect lake levels, rates of river discharge and runoff and groundwater recharge
high
2
train
4,987
AR6_WGII
1,361
10
Pressure on water demand due to climate change and variability is threatening income, development processes and food security in the region
high
2
train
4,988
AR6_WGII
1,361
16
Extreme climate events have been key drivers in rising acute food insecurity and malnutrition of millions of people requiring humanitarian assistance in Africa
high
2
train
4,989
AR6_WGII
1,361
18
Children and pregnant women experience disproportionately greater adverse health and nutrition impacts
very high
3
train
4,990
AR6_WGII
1,362
27
Climate change is projected to have overall positive impacts on sugarcane and Bambara nuts in southern Africa, oil palm in Nigeria and chickpea in Ethiopia
low
0
train
4,991
AR6_WGII
1,367
29
However, adaptation limits for crops in Africa are increasingly reached for global warming above 2°C (high confidence), and in tropical Africa may already be reached at current levels of global warming
low
0
train
4,992
AR6_WGII
1,371
15
Approximately 59% of sub-Saharan Africa’s urban population resides in informal settlements (in some cities up to 80%), and the population in informal settlements is expected to increase
very high
3
train
4,993
AR6_WGII
1,371
16
These urbanisation trends are compounding increasing exposure to climate hazards, particularly floods and heatwaves
high
2
train
4,994
AR6_WGII
1,371
17
Globally, the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation are taking place in Africa’s coastal zones
high
2
train
4,995
AR6_WGII
1,374
18
Africa’s large population of urban poor and marginalised groups and informal sector workers, further contribute to high vulnerability to extreme weather and climate change in many settlements
high
2
train
4,996
AR6_WGII
1,374
19
Other non-climatic stressors which exacerbate vulnerabilities, especially in urban areas, include poor socioeconomic development, weak municipal governance, poor resource and institutional capacities, together with multi-dimensional, location-specific inequalities
high
2
train
4,997
AR6_WGII
1,375
9
Future rapid coastal development is expected to increase existing high vulnerabilities to sea level rise (SLR) and coastal hazards, particularly in east Africa
high
2
train
4,998
AR6_WGII
1,378
15
This portends increased vulnerability to risk of heat stress in big cities of central, east and west Africa
very high
3
train
4,999
AR6_WGII
1,378
27
With increasing societal demands on limited water resources and future climate change, it is expected that there will be an intensification of WEF competition and trade-offs
high
2
train