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4,900 | AR6_WGII | 1,196 | 20 | At the same time, there is increasing evidence that successful adapta- tion depends on equitable development and climate justice; for exam- ple, gender inequality (SDG 5) and discrimination (SDG 16) are among the barriers to effective adaptation | high | 2 | train |
4,901 | AR6_WGII | 1,196 | 24 | They do not have uniform climate risk profiles, and not all adaptations are equally appropriate in all contexts (Nurse et al., 2014) | high | 2 | train |
4,902 | AR6_WGII | 1,198 | 7 | Recent literature provides evidence that impacts of climate change together with non-climatic drivers can create poverty– environment traps that may increase the probability of long-term and chronic poverty (Figure 8.4; Hallegatte et al., 2015; Djalante et al., 2020; Malhi et al., 2020; McCloskey et al., 2020) | high | 2 | train |
4,903 | AR6_WGII | 1,205 | 5 | This literature underscores that approaches to assess resilience, vulnerability and human well-being include global assessments that can inform strategies and priority settings for adaptation and risk reduction in the context of climate change | high | 2 | train |
4,904 | AR6_WGII | 1,212 | 12 | There is high agreement that, with global warming of about 3°C, such undermining of poverty reduction efforts will intensify and more regions will face development setbacks due to the spatial and temporal expansion of climate hazards, including the further erosion of capital that enables people to develop adaptive capacities | high | 2 | train |
4,905 | AR6_WGII | 1,212 | 19 | Reducing vulnerability to climate change is therefore indispensable for climate justice and just transitions | high | 2 | train |
4,906 | AR6_WGII | 1,217 | 3 | The sale of property particularly reduces the asset base, creates long-term vulnerabilities to future events and can trigger chronic poverty | high | 2 | train |
4,907 | AR6_WGII | 1,217 | 5 | In South Asia, there is robust evidence of economic impacts of climate change (Cao et al., 2021), for example in the Sundarbans (a transboundary ecosystem with components in both India and Bangladesh, with the problem of unproductive livelihoods being common across residents of both countries) observations show local livelihoods are rapidly becoming unproductive (loss of fish, and increasing salination making agriculture increasingly difficult) (Ghosh, 2018); conditions that are exacerbated by climate change impacts | high | 2 | train |
4,908 | AR6_WGII | 1,218 | 27 | Non-economic losses are particularly relevant for understanding adverse consequences of climate change on the poor and most vulnerable population groups | high | 2 | train |
4,909 | AR6_WGII | 1,220 | 4 | Examples of livelihood shifts across Asia and Southeast Asia (e.g., Bangladesh, India, Philippines, Vietnam) include rural communities in coastal areas, urban settlements that are experiencing economic losses | high | 2 | train |
4,910 | AR6_WGII | 1,220 | 25 | Climate change-related extreme weather events, such as typhoons, floods, and droughts, can have detrimental impacts on crop production | high | 2 | train |
4,911 | AR6_WGII | 1,220 | 28 | In Africa, many communities already experience drought- and flood- related disasters | high | 2 | train |
4,912 | AR6_WGII | 1,220 | 30 | Food security and agriculture productivity are examples of livelihood resources most at risk to climate hazards (see Figure 8.2) | high | 2 | train |
4,913 | AR6_WGII | 1,222 | 10 | The multiple shocks of extreme events reduce crop yields, destroy homes, and lead to loss of infrastructure and displacement | high | 2 | train |
4,914 | AR6_WGII | 1,230 | 8 | In the Himalayas (part of the Hindu Kush Himalaya, HKH) temperature warming is expected to increase up to 2°C by 2050 | high | 2 | train |
4,915 | AR6_WGII | 1,230 | 22 | Likewise, in the Amazon basin, climate change hazards of severe droughts and floods | high | 2 | train |
4,916 | AR6_WGII | 1,232 | 25 | The increase in global temperature level up to 2°C will exacerbate food and water insecurity in the Amazon (Betts et al., 2018; Hoegh- Guldberg et al., 2018) | medium | 1 | train |
4,917 | AR6_WGII | 1,233 | 15 | The categories in Table 8.5 also represent important future compounding and complex risks that can emerge due to maladaptation | high | 2 | train |
4,918 | AR6_WGII | 1,236 | 12 | In SRCCL (IPCC, 2019a), land degradation and climate change compounded to highly expose the livelihoods of the poor to climate hazards and caused food insecurity (high confidence), migration, conflict and loss of cultural heritage | low | 0 | train |
4,919 | AR6_WGII | 1,246 | 2 | Some authors suggest including Indigenous knowledge in the IPCC assessment process should be of high priority, as it is becoming increasingly relevant for climate services | high | 2 | train |
4,920 | AR6_WGII | 1,252 | 7 | CSA, carbon-forestry programmes and the water–energy–climate nexus show trade-offs across levels and sectors with identified winners and losers | high | 2 | train |
4,921 | AR6_WGII | 1,254 | 20 | Depending on the farming and pastoral systems and level of development, reductions in the emissions intensity of livestock products may lead to absolute reductions in GHG emissions (IPCC, 2019a) | medium | 1 | train |
4,922 | AR6_WGII | 1,254 | 21 | Significant synergies exist between adaptation and mitigation, for example, through SLM approaches | high | 2 | train |
4,923 | AR6_WGII | 1,260 | 10 | Meanwhile, the livelihood resources that are globally at greatest risk include people’s bodily health, food security and agricultural productivity | high | 2 | train |
4,924 | AR6_WGII | 1,260 | 11 | Evidence suggests that the fundamental challenge of climate change to livelihoods is that rising temperatures, drought and other hazards endanger human life, and the lives of plants and animals that humans rely on to survive | high | 2 | train |
4,925 | AR6_WGII | 1,261 | 6 | This chapter builds on AR5 and the IPCC SR 1.5°C on key limits to the adaptation of natural and social systems that are compounded by the effects of poverty and inequality, such as on water scarcity, ecosystems alteration and degradation, coastal cities in relation to sea level rise, cyclones and coastal erosion, food systems and human health | high | 2 | train |
4,926 | AR6_WGII | 1,261 | 7 | Climate change risks could have substantial negative impacts on climate-sensitive livelihoods of smallholder farmers, fisheries communities, Indigenous People, urban poor and informal settlements, with limits to adaptation evidenced in the loss income, ecosystems, health and increasing migration | high | 2 | train |
4,927 | AR6_WGII | 1,261 | 9 | For instance, a hard limit associated with losses of coral reefs in a 1.5°C warmer world will lead to substantial loss of income and livelihoods for coastal communities (high confidence), including loss of culture- and place-based attachment | medium | 1 | train |
4,928 | AR6_WGII | 1,261 | 11 | Their threshold will affect residents of Arctic regions dependent on hunting and fishing livelihoods | high | 2 | train |
4,929 | AR6_WGII | 1,261 | 14 | Thus, without sustainable, equitable and urgent adaptation measures, maladaptation risks are likely to further increase vulnerability, marginalisation and ecological tipping points among the poor within countries | medium | 1 | train |
4,930 | AR6_WGII | 1,300 | 2 | Limiting global warming to 1.5°C is expected to substantially reduce damages to African economies, agriculture, human health, and ecosystems compared to higher levels of global warming | high | 2 | train |
4,931 | AR6_WGII | 1,300 | 16 | Finance has not targeted more vulnerable countries | high | 2 | train |
4,932 | AR6_WGII | 1,300 | 19 | Increasing public and private finance flows by billions of dollars per year, increasing direct access to multilateral funds, strengthening project pipeline development and shifting more finance to project implementation would help realise transformative adaptation in Africa | high | 2 | train |
4,933 | AR6_WGII | 1,300 | 20 | Concessional finance will be required for adaptation in low-income settings | high | 2 | train |
4,934 | AR6_WGII | 1,300 | 24 | For example, climate change adaptation benefits pandemic preparedness, ‘One Health’ approaches benefit human and ecosystem health, and ecosystem-based adaptation can deliver adap- tation and emissions mitigation | high | 2 | train |
4,935 | AR6_WGII | 1,301 | 18 | This Report also uses the term ‘likely range’ to indicate that the assessed likelihood of an outcome lies within the 17–83% probability range.Africa), increasing exposure to pluvial and riverine flooding | high | 2 | train |
4,936 | AR6_WGII | 1,302 | 20 | Although yield declines for some crops may be partially compensated by increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, global warming above 2°C will result in yield reductions for staple crops across most of Africa compared to 2005 yields (e.g., 20–40% decline in west African maize yields), even when considering adaptation options and increasing CO 2 | medium | 1 | train |
4,937 | AR6_WGII | 1,302 | 32 | Above 2°C of global warming, distribution and seasonal transmission of vector-borne diseases is expected to increase, exposing tens of millions more people, mostly in west, east and southern Africa | high | 2 | train |
4,938 | AR6_WGII | 1,302 | 33 | Above 1.5°C risk of heat-related deaths rises sharply | medium | 1 | train |
4,939 | AR6_WGII | 1,302 | 34 | Above 2°C global warming, thousands to tens of thousands of additional cases of diarrhoeal disease are projected, mainly in west, central and east Africa | medium | 1 | train |
4,940 | AR6_WGII | 1,302 | 38 | High population growth and urbanisation in low-elevation coastal zones will be a major driver of exposure to sea level rise in the next 50 years | high | 2 | train |
4,941 | AR6_WGII | 1,303 | 19 | Further increasing CO 2 concentrations could increase woody plant cover, but increasing aridity could counteract this, destabilising forest and peatland carbon stores in central Africa | low | 0 | train |
4,942 | AR6_WGII | 1,303 | 20 | Changes in vegetation cover could occur rapidly if tipping points are crossed {9.6.1, 9.6.2, 9.8.2} African biodiversity loss is projected to be widespread and escalating with every 0.5°C increase above present-day global warming | high | 2 | train |
4,943 | AR6_WGII | 1,303 | 30 | Most African heritage sites are neither prepared for, nor adapted to, future climate change | high | 2 | train |
4,944 | AR6_WGII | 1,304 | 19 | Integrated water management measures including sub-national financing, demand management through subsidies, rates and taxes, and sustainable water technologies can reduce water insecurity caused by either drought or floods | medium | 1 | train |
4,945 | AR6_WGII | 1,304 | 22 | Climate information services, institutional capacity building, secure land tenure, and strategic financial investment can help overcome these barriers to adaptation | medium | 1 | train |
4,946 | AR6_WGII | 1,305 | 3 | The contribution of Africa is among the lowest of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions responsible for human-induced climate change and it has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions currently | high | 2 | train |
4,947 | AR6_WGII | 1,305 | 4 | Yet Africa has already experienced widespread impacts from human-induced climate change | high | 2 | train |
4,948 | AR6_WGII | 1,305 | 10 | Hot days, hot nights and heatwaves have become more frequent; heatwaves have also become longer. Drying is projected particularly for west and southwestern Africa | high | 2 | test |
4,949 | AR6_WGII | 1,309 | 15 | Climate-related research in Africa faces severe funding constraints with unequal funding relationships between countries and with research partners in Europe and North America | high | 2 | train |
4,950 | AR6_WGII | 1,310 | 2 | These unequal funding relations influence inequalities in climate-related research design, participation and dissemination between African researchers and researchers from high-income countries outside Africa, in ways that can reduce adaptive capacity in Africa | very high | 3 | train |
4,951 | AR6_WGII | 1,311 | 6 | In scenarios with low adaptation (that is largely localised and incremental), the transition to high risk—widespread and severe impacts—has already begun at the current level of global warming for biodiversity loss (high confidence), and begins below 1.5°C global warming for both food production (medium confidence) and mortality and morbidity from heat and infectious disease | high | 2 | train |
4,952 | AR6_WGII | 1,316 | 7 | Adaptation costs in Africa are expected to rise rapidly as global warming increases | high | 2 | train |
4,953 | AR6_WGII | 1,316 | 23 | The amounts of finance being mobilised internationally to support adaptation in African countries are billions of US dollars less than adaptation cost estimates, and finance has targeted mitigation more than adaptation | high | 2 | train |
4,954 | AR6_WGII | 1,322 | 3 | In Africa, placing cross-sectoral approaches at the core of CRD provides significant opportunities to deliver large benefits and/or avoided damages across multiple sectors including water, health, ecosystems and economies | very high | 3 | train |
4,955 | AR6_WGII | 1,327 | 1 | Despite these challenges, the inclusive nature of co-production has had a positive influence on the uptake of CS into decision making where it has been applied (Table 9.4; Figure 9.12; Vincent et al., 2018; Vogel et al., 2019; Carter et al., 2020; Chiputwa et al., 2020) | medium | 1 | train |
4,956 | AR6_WGII | 1,331 | 20 | Most African countries are expected to experience high temperatures unprecedented in their recent history earlier in this century than generally wealthier, higher latitude countries | high | 2 | test |
4,957 | AR6_WGII | 1,336 | 19 | A shift to a later onset and end of the west African monsoon is also reported in west Africa and Sahel | low | 0 | train |
4,958 | AR6_WGII | 1,337 | 2 | Meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought in the region has increased in frequency since the 1950s | medium | 1 | train |
4,959 | AR6_WGII | 1,337 | 6 | Although there are uncertainties in rainfall projections over the Sahel (Klutse et al., 2018; Gutiérrez et al., 2021), CMIP6 models project monsoon rainfall amounts to increase by approximately 2.9% per degree of warming (Jin et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2020a), therefore, at higher levels of warming and towards the end of the century, a wetter monsoon is projected in the eastern Sahel | medium | 1 | train |
4,960 | AR6_WGII | 1,337 | 16 | According to CMIP6 and CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) models, the annual average number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35°C will increase between 14–27 days at GWL 2°C and 33–59 days at GWL 3°C above the 61–63 days for 1995 –2014 (Gutiérrez et al., 2021; Ranasinghe et al., 2021) | high | 2 | train |
4,961 | AR6_WGII | 1,337 | 21 | There is some evidence of drying since the mid-20th century through decreased mean rainfall and increased precipitation deficits (Gutiérrez et al., 2021), as well as increases in meteorological, agricultural and ecological drought | medium | 1 | train |
4,962 | AR6_WGII | 1,338 | 3 | At GWL 3°C and GWL 4.4°C, an increased mean annual rainfall of 10–25% is projected by regional climate models (Coppola et al., 2014; Pinto et al., 2015) and the intensity of extreme precipitation will increase | high | 2 | train |
4,963 | AR6_WGII | 1,339 | 5 | Heavy rainfall events are projected to increase over the region at global warming of 2°C and higher | high | 2 | train |
4,964 | AR6_WGII | 1,339 | 15 | Since the 1960s, decreasing precipitation trends have been detected over the South African winter rainfall region (high confidence) and the far eastern parts of South Africa | low | 0 | train |
4,965 | AR6_WGII | 1,339 | 19 | Mean annual rainfall in the summer rainfall region of South Afria is projected to decrease by 10–20%, accompanied by an increase in the number of consecutive dry days during the rainy season under RCP8.5. The western parts of the region are projected to become drier, with increasing drought frequency, intensity and duration likely under RCP8.5 | high | 2 | test |
4,966 | AR6_WGII | 1,340 | 2 | There is a projected decrease in the number of tropical cyclones making landfall in the region at 1°C, 2°C and 3°C of global warming, however, they are projected to become more intense with higher wind speeds so when they do make landfall the impacts are expected to be high | medium | 1 | train |
4,967 | AR6_WGII | 1,340 | 25 | Reducing emissions and limiting warming to lower levels reduces risk to these systems | high | 2 | train |
4,968 | AR6_WGII | 1,341 | 4 | In Africa, IKLK are exceptionally rich in ecosystem-specific knowledge, with the potential to enhance the management of natural hazards and climate variability | high | 2 | train |
4,969 | AR6_WGII | 1,344 | 18 | Increased temperature, changes in rainfall and reduced wind speed altered the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, affecting water quality and productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish | high | 2 | train |
4,970 | AR6_WGII | 1,344 | 27 | Mangroves, seagrasses and coral reefs support nursery habitats for fish, sequester carbon, trap sediment and provide shoreline protection (Ghermandi et al., 2019). Climate change is compromising these ecosystem services | medium | 1 | test |
4,971 | AR6_WGII | 1,345 | 11 | The magnitude and extent of local extinctions predicted across Africa increase substantially under all future GWLs | high | 2 | train |
4,972 | AR6_WGII | 1,347 | 2 | With increasing warming, there is a lower likelihood species can migrate rapidly enough to track shifting climates, increasing global extinction risk and biodiversity loss across more of Africa | high | 2 | train |
4,973 | AR6_WGII | 1,347 | 12 | At 1.5°C of global warming, mangroves will be exposed to sedimentation and sea level rise, while seagrass ecosystems will be most affected by heat extremes | high | 2 | train |
4,974 | AR6_WGII | 1,347 | 14 | Over 90% of east African coral reefs are projected to be destroyed by bleaching at 2°C of global warming | very high | 3 | train |
4,975 | AR6_WGII | 1,349 | 8 | This declining carbon storage may be offset by CO 2 fertilization | low | 0 | train |
4,976 | AR6_WGII | 1,349 | 13 | Climate change is projected to change patterns of invasive species spread | high | 2 | train |
4,977 | AR6_WGII | 1,349 | 21 | Climate change is already negatively affecting tourism in Africa | high | 2 | train |
4,978 | AR6_WGII | 1,350 | 8 | Climate change and land use change will interact to influence the effectiveness of African protected areas | high | 2 | train |
4,979 | AR6_WGII | 1,352 | 9 | Maintaining existing indigenous forest and indigenous forest restoration is a win–win, maximising benefits to biodiversity, adaptation and mitigation (Griscom et al., 2017; Watson et al., 2018; Lewis et al., 2019) | high | 2 | train |
4,980 | AR6_WGII | 1,352 | 10 | Yet many areas targeted by AFR100 erroneously mark Africa’s open ecosystems (grasslands, savannas, shrublands) as degraded and suitable for afforestation (Figure Box 9.3.1; (Veldman et al., 2015; Bond et al., 2019) | high | 2 | train |
4,981 | AR6_WGII | 1,353 | 1 | General principles for this type of monitoring were developed for Lake Tanganyika (Plisnier et al., 2018) and could be applied to develop harmonised, regional monitoring of African lakes, rivers and wetlands (Tamatamah and Mwedzi, 2020) 9.6.4.3 Marine and Coastal Ecosystems Marine and coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, seagrass and coral reefs provide storm protection and food security for coastal communities | high | 2 | train |
4,982 | AR6_WGII | 1,353 | 18 | However, in southern Africa as a whole, river flows have mostly decreased | high | 2 | train |
4,983 | AR6_WGII | 1,353 | 22 | Observed climate changes in Africa (see Section 9.5) have led to changes in river flow and runoff (Dallas and Rivers-Moore, 2014; Wolski et al., 2014) and high fluctuations in lake levels | high | 2 | train |
4,984 | AR6_WGII | 1,355 | 15 | In some higher altitude regions, like the Niger Inland Delta in west Africa, river flows and water levels are expected to increase | medium | 1 | train |
4,985 | AR6_WGII | 1,355 | 17 | In the Volta River system, increasing wet season river flows (+36% by 2090s) and Volta lake outflow (+5% by 2090s) are anticipated under RCP8.5 | medium | 1 | train |
4,986 | AR6_WGII | 1,356 | 9 | Changes in the amplitude, timing and frequency of extreme events such as droughts and floods will continue to affect lake levels, rates of river discharge and runoff and groundwater recharge | high | 2 | train |
4,987 | AR6_WGII | 1,361 | 10 | Pressure on water demand due to climate change and variability is threatening income, development processes and food security in the region | high | 2 | train |
4,988 | AR6_WGII | 1,361 | 16 | Extreme climate events have been key drivers in rising acute food insecurity and malnutrition of millions of people requiring humanitarian assistance in Africa | high | 2 | train |
4,989 | AR6_WGII | 1,361 | 18 | Children and pregnant women experience disproportionately greater adverse health and nutrition impacts | very high | 3 | train |
4,990 | AR6_WGII | 1,362 | 27 | Climate change is projected to have overall positive impacts on sugarcane and Bambara nuts in southern Africa, oil palm in Nigeria and chickpea in Ethiopia | low | 0 | train |
4,991 | AR6_WGII | 1,367 | 29 | However, adaptation limits for crops in Africa are increasingly reached for global warming above 2°C (high confidence), and in tropical Africa may already be reached at current levels of global warming | low | 0 | train |
4,992 | AR6_WGII | 1,371 | 15 | Approximately 59% of sub-Saharan Africa’s urban population resides in informal settlements (in some cities up to 80%), and the population in informal settlements is expected to increase | very high | 3 | train |
4,993 | AR6_WGII | 1,371 | 16 | These urbanisation trends are compounding increasing exposure to climate hazards, particularly floods and heatwaves | high | 2 | train |
4,994 | AR6_WGII | 1,371 | 17 | Globally, the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation are taking place in Africa’s coastal zones | high | 2 | train |
4,995 | AR6_WGII | 1,374 | 18 | Africa’s large population of urban poor and marginalised groups and informal sector workers, further contribute to high vulnerability to extreme weather and climate change in many settlements | high | 2 | train |
4,996 | AR6_WGII | 1,374 | 19 | Other non-climatic stressors which exacerbate vulnerabilities, especially in urban areas, include poor socioeconomic development, weak municipal governance, poor resource and institutional capacities, together with multi-dimensional, location-specific inequalities | high | 2 | train |
4,997 | AR6_WGII | 1,375 | 9 | Future rapid coastal development is expected to increase existing high vulnerabilities to sea level rise (SLR) and coastal hazards, particularly in east Africa | high | 2 | train |
4,998 | AR6_WGII | 1,378 | 15 | This portends increased vulnerability to risk of heat stress in big cities of central, east and west Africa | very high | 3 | train |
4,999 | AR6_WGII | 1,378 | 27 | With increasing societal demands on limited water resources and future climate change, it is expected that there will be an intensification of WEF competition and trade-offs | high | 2 | train |
Subsets and Splits
High Confidence Training Data
Retrieves entries with high or very high confidence, providing a filtered view but limited analytical value.