Datasets:
rlacombe
/
ClimateX

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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Community
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6,100
AR6_WGII
2,056
4
Climate change is also affecting settlements and infrastructure, health and well-being, water and food security, and economies and culture, especially through compound events
high
2
train
6,101
AR6_WGII
2,056
6
TCs are severely impacting small islands
high
2
train
6,102
AR6_WGII
2,056
15
Scientific evidence has confirmed that globally and in small islands tropical corals are presently at high risk
high
2
train
6,103
AR6_WGII
2,056
16
Severe coral bleaching, together with declines in coral abundance, has been observed in many small islands, especially those in the Pacific and Indian oceans
high
2
train
6,104
AR6_WGII
2,056
29
Due to the large range of insular- related vulnerabilities, almost 50% of terrestrial species presently considered at risk of global extinction also occur on islands
high
2
test
6,105
AR6_WGII
2,056
31
Projected Impacts Projected climate and ocean-related changes will significantly affect marine and terrestrial ecosystems and ecosystem services, which will in turn have cascading impacts across both natural and human systems
high
2
train
6,106
AR6_WGII
2,056
32
Changes in wave climate superimposed on SLR will significantly increase coastal flooding
high
2
train
6,107
AR6_WGII
2,056
33
The frequency, extent, duration and consequences of coastal flooding will significantly increase from 2050 (high confidence), unless coastal and marine ecosystems are able to naturally adapt to SLR through vertical growth
low
0
train
6,108
AR6_WGII
2,056
35
Projected changes in the wave climate superimposed on SLR will rapidly increase flooding in small islands, despite highly contrasting exposure profiles between ocean sub-regions
high
2
train
6,109
AR6_WGII
2,057
2
Modelling of both temperature and ocean acidification effects under future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) suggest that some small islands will experience severe coral bleaching on an annual basis before 2040
medium
1
train
6,110
AR6_WGII
2,057
4
Intact coral reefs, seagrass meadows and mangroves provide a variety of ecosystem services that are important to island communities
high
2
train
6,111
AR6_WGII
2,057
5
These include provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services and those that support community resilience
high
2
train
6,112
AR6_WGII
2,057
6
If coastal ecosystems are degraded and lost, then the benefits they provide cannot be easily replaced
medium
1
train
6,113
AR6_WGII
2,057
7
Projected changes in aridity are expected to impose freshwater stress on many small islands, especially SIDS
high
2
train
6,114
AR6_WGII
2,057
13
SIDS with high projected population growth rates are expected to experience the most severe freshwater stress by 2030 under a 2°C warming threshold scenario {15.3.3.2} The continued degradation and transformation of terrestrial and marine ecosystems of small islands due to human- dominated will amplify the vulnerability of island peoples to the impacts of climate change
high
2
train
6,115
AR6_WGII
2,057
19
Reef island and coastal area habitability in small islands is expected to decrease because of increased temperature, extreme sea levels and degradation of buffering ecosystems, which will increase human exposure to sea-related hazards
high
2
train
6,116
AR6_WGII
2,057
21
On small islands, coastal land loss attributable to higher sea level, increased extreme precipitation and wave impacts and increased aridity have contributed to food and water insecurities that are likely to become more acute in many places
high
2
train
6,117
AR6_WGII
2,057
25
Future Risks The reduced habitability of small islands is an overarching significant risk caused by a combination of several key risks facing most small islands even under a global temperature scenario of 1.5°C
high
2
train
6,118
AR6_WGII
2,057
29
Moreover, it can distil the benefits and/or disadvantages and long-term implications of choosing such options
high
2
train
6,119
AR6_WGII
2,057
30
The vulnerability of communities in small islands, especially those relying on coral reef systems for livelihoods, may exceed adaptation limits well before 2100 even for a low greenhouse gas emission pathway
high
2
train
6,120
AR6_WGII
2,057
31
The impacts of climate change on vulnerable low-lying and coastal areas present serious threats to the ability of land to support human life and livelihood
high
2
train
6,121
AR6_WGII
2,058
6
Options, Limits and Opportunities of Adaptation Some island communities are resilient with strong social safety nets and social capital that support responses and actions already occurring, but there is limited information on the effectiveness of the adaptation practices and the scale of action needed
high
2
train
6,122
AR6_WGII
2,058
9
In small islands, despite the existence of adaptation barriers several enablers can be used to improve adaptation outcomes and to build resilience
high
2
train
6,123
AR6_WGII
2,058
10
These enablers include better governance and legal reforms; improving justice, equity and gender considerations; building human resource capacity; increased finance and risk transfer mechanisms; education and awareness programmes; increased access to climate information; adequately downscaled climate data and embedding Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge (IKLK) as well as integrating cultural resources into decision-making
high
2
train
6,124
AR6_WGII
2,058
11
Small islands present the most urgent need for investment in capacity building and adaptation strategies
high
2
train
6,125
AR6_WGII
2,058
13
Additionally, institutional and legal systems are often inadequately prepared for managing adaptation strategies such as large-scale settlement relocation and other planned and/or autonomous responses to climate risks
high
2
train
6,126
AR6_WGII
2,058
14
Adaptation strategies are already being implemented on some small islands although barriers are encountered including inadequate up-to-date and locally relevant information, limited availability of finance and technology, lack of integration of IKLK in adaptation strategies, and institutional constraints (high confidence) {15.5.3, 15.5.4, 15.6.3, 15.6.4, 15.6.5}.For many small islands, adaptation actions are often incremental and do not match the scale of extreme or compounding events
high
2
train
6,127
AR6_WGII
2,058
16
To address these shortcomings, enablers are being integrated into National Adaptation Plans and Disaster Risk Reduction Plans
high
2
train
6,128
AR6_WGII
2,058
17
Although international climate finance has increased in magnitude, small islands face challenges in accessing adaptation finance to cope with slow- and rapid-onset events
high
2
train
6,129
AR6_WGII
2,059
19
Also, scientific evidence since AR5 has confirmed that tropical corals are presently at high risk
very high
3
train
6,130
AR6_WGII
2,059
20
Even achieving emission reduction targets consistent with the ambitious goal of 1.5°C of global warming under the Paris Agreement will result in the further loss of 70–90% of reef-building corals compared to today, with 99% of corals being lost under warming of 2°C or more above the pre-industrial period
high
2
train
6,131
AR6_WGII
2,061
5
Stronger evidence confirms that education and awareness-raising enhance household and community adaptation
high
2
train
6,132
AR6_WGII
2,061
6
Knowledge has improved on limits to adaptation, including projected timeframes of limits for hard protection (high confidence) and EbA
medium
1
train
6,133
AR6_WGII
2,061
7
There is also a better understanding that barriers and governance challenges vary by island and island groups
high
2
train
6,134
AR6_WGII
2,061
12
In small islands the methods and mechanisms to assess climate-induced losses and damages remain undeveloped
medium
1
train
6,135
AR6_WGII
2,061
18
This is true on all types of islands (Figure 15.2).15.3.1 Synthesis of Observed and Projected Changes in the Physical Basis There is increased evidence of warming in the small islands, particularly in the latter half of the 20th century
high
2
train
6,136
AR6_WGII
2,064
9
Reconstructions of past storm surges and modelling studies assessing storm surge risk similarly highlighted high variations of risk along island coasts, due to variations in exposure, topography and bathymetry
high
2
train
6,137
AR6_WGII
2,066
33
Larger-scale studies confirmed that projected changes in the wave climate superimposed on SLR will rapidly increase flooding in small islands, despite highly contrasting exposure profiles between ocean sub-regions
high
2
train
6,138
AR6_WGII
2,066
38
Since the 1950s–1970s, and even in regions exhibiting higher than global-averaged SLR rates, atoll islands maintained their land area
high
2
train
6,139
AR6_WGII
2,067
1
The rates of change did not correlate with SLR rates, suggesting that the impact of SLR on island land area was obscured by other climate drivers and human disturbances on some islands
high
2
train
6,140
AR6_WGII
2,067
3
Despite important knowledge gaps on coastal erosion in high tropical islands, recent studies confirmed increasing shoreline retreat and beach loss over the past decades, mainly due to TC and ETC waves and human disturbances
high
2
train
6,141
AR6_WGII
2,067
4
Despite storm-induced erosion prevailing along some shoreline sections, recent studies reaffirmed the contribution of TC and ETC waves to coastal and reef island vertical building through massive reef- to-island sediment transfer
high
2
train
6,142
AR6_WGII
2,067
8
Similarly, El Niño and La Niña were involved in rapid and highly contrasting shoreline changes
high
2
train
6,143
AR6_WGII
2,067
13
Small reef islands and narrow coastal systems affected by human disturbances will increasingly be at risk of disappearance due to SLR (KR2 in Figure 15.5), enhanced sediment loss caused by extreme events (Duvat et al., 2019a) and/or human activities
high
2
train
6,144
AR6_WGII
2,067
17
Severe coral bleaching, together with declines in coral abundance have been documented in many small islands, especially those in the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean (e.g., Guam, Fiji, Palau, Vanuatu, Chagos, Comoros, Mauritius, Seychelles, and the Maldives
high
2
train
6,145
AR6_WGII
2,067
19
Median return time between two severe bleaching events has diminished steadily since 1980 and is now only 6 years (e.g., Hughes et al., 2017b; Hughes et al., 2018) and is often associated with warm phase of ENSO events
high
2
train
6,146
AR6_WGII
2,067
20
Modelling of both bleaching and ocean acidification effects under future climate scenarios suggested that some Pacific small islands (e.g., Nauru, Guam, Northern Marianas Islands) will experience conditions that cause severe bleaching on an annual basis before 2040 and that 90% of the world reefs are projected to experience conditions that result in severe bleaching annually by 2055
medium
1
train
6,147
AR6_WGII
2,067
22
Even achieving emission reduction targets consistent with the ambitious goal of 1.5°C of global warming under the Paris Agreement will result in the further loss of 70–90% of reef-building corals compared to today, with 99% of corals being lost under warming of 2°C or more above the pre-industrial period
high
2
train
6,148
AR6_WGII
2,068
8
Despite their vital social and ecological value, substantial declines in seagrass communities have been documented in many small islands (Section 3.4.2.5; Arias-Ortiz et al., 2018; Kendrick et al., 2019; Brodie et al., 2020), including Fiji (Joseph et al., 2019), Reunion Island (Cuvillier et al., 2017), Bermuda, Cayman Islands, US Virgin Islands (Waycott et al., 2009), Kiribati (Brodie et al., 2020), Federated States of Micronesia, and Palau (Short et al., 2016), but attribution of such declines to climatic influences remains weak
low
0
train
6,149
AR6_WGII
2,068
13
In the Mediterranean, seagrass meadows are already showing signs of regression, which may have been aggravated by climate change
high
2
train
6,150
AR6_WGII
2,068
22
Whether or not such events are related to long-term climate change remains unclear; however, it has been suggested that the influx may be related to strong Amazon discharge, enhanced West African upwelling, together with rising seawater temperatures in the Atlantic
low
0
train
6,151
AR6_WGII
2,069
5
In small islands where the risk of loss to ecosystem services is high (Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter 17), many of these ecosystem services cannot be easily replaced
medium
1
train
6,152
AR6_WGII
2,069
15
As corals, mangroves and seagrasses disappear, so do fish and other dependent organisms that directly benefit industries such as ecotourism and fisheries
high
2
train
6,153
AR6_WGII
2,069
23
On high volcanic and granitic islands, freshwater ecosystems are often closely connected with coastal spaces, and changes in freshwater supply from river systems have direct implications for salinity and sediment loads
high
2
train
6,154
AR6_WGII
2,069
24
Climate impacts on streamflow patterns in tropical islands also create shifts in water supply for downstream users and habitat conditions for organisms supporting a wide range of ecosystem services
high
2
train
6,155
AR6_WGII
2,069
25
Projected changes in aridity are expected to impose freshwater stress on many small islands, especially SIDS
high
2
train
6,156
AR6_WGII
2,069
26
In the Mediterranean region, freshwater resources will decline by 10–30%
medium
1
train
6,157
AR6_WGII
2,071
7
Such changes in SLR could increase salinity in estuarine and aquifer water, affecting ground and surface water resources for drinking and irrigation water (Mycoo, 2018a) across the region
high
2
train
6,158
AR6_WGII
2,071
14
This is likely to hinder the adaptation response of terrestrial biota–increasing the risk of biodiversity loss and, in turn, impairing the resilience capacity of ecosystem functioning and services
high
2
train
6,159
AR6_WGII
2,071
24
This is due to projected strong shifts, reductions or even complete losses of climatic niches resulting from inadequate geographic space for species to track suitable climate envelopes
high
2
train
6,160
AR6_WGII
2,072
3
Indirect impacts of SLR may potentially result in equal or more biodiversity loss than direct impacts
medium
1
train
6,161
AR6_WGII
2,072
6
Tropical island natural habitats/systems are highly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as TCs, due to their small size, unique ecological systems and often low socioeconomic capacity
high
2
test
6,162
AR6_WGII
2,072
15
There are too few studies available to suggest potential future response trends of these ecosystems to this increased intensity; however, it seems plausible that present resilience capacities may be adversely impacted
medium
1
train
6,163
AR6_WGII
2,072
21
These may ultimately increase the risk of multiple extinctions, negatively impacting upon global biodiversity levels
high
2
train
6,164
AR6_WGII
2,072
25
These are likely to enhance IAS impacts on islands including: restructuring of ecological communities leading to declines and extinctions/extirpations in flora and fauna, habitat degradation, declining ecosystem functioning, services and resilience and, in extreme cases, potential community homogenisation
high
2
train
6,165
AR6_WGII
2,072
27
Compared to continents, terrestrial IAS are disproportionately prevalent on islands (almost three quarters of global species currently threatened by IAS and disease are found on islands) and also generate stronger impacts (e.g., within alpine ecosystems of high islands) than on continents
high
2
train
6,166
AR6_WGII
2,074
6
The main settlements of small islands are located along the coast and with decades of high-density coastal urban development, their population, buildings and infrastructure are currently exposed to multiple climate change-related hazards (Kumar and Taylor, 2015; Mycoo, 2017) and face key risks
high
2
train
6,167
AR6_WGII
2,077
9
These authors concluded that nine of 17 Pacific Island entities (Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Guam, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Tuvalu) could experience ≥50% declines in maximum catch potential by 2100 relative to 1980–2000 under both an RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenario
medium
1
train
6,168
AR6_WGII
2,077
12
The small islands that show the largest anticipated decrease in the maximum catch potential of fisheries by the end of the century (according to an RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario) include the Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, Nauru, Palau, Tokelau, Tuvalu, São Tomé and Príncipe, whereas some other small islands such as Bermuda, Easter Island (Chile), and Pitcairn Islands (UK), might actually witness increases in fish catch potential
medium
1
train
6,169
AR6_WGII
2,080
25
These KRs include loss of marine and coastal biodiversity and ecosystem services (high confidence) (KR1; for details on KR coverage, see Section 15.3.3.1); submergence of reef islands (low confidence) (KR2; Section 15.3.3.1.1); loss of terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services (high confidence) (KR3; Section 15.3.3.3); water insecurity (medium- high confidence) (KR4; Section 15.3.4.3); destruction of settlements and infrastructure (high confidence) (KR5; Section 15.3.4.1); degradation of human health and well-being (low confidence) (KR6; Section 15.3.4.2); economic decline and livelihood failure (high confidence) (KR7; Sections 15.3.4.4 and 15.3.4.5); and loss of cultural resources and heritage
low
0
train
6,170
AR6_WGII
2,084
14
Risk accumulation and amplification through cascading effects from ecosystems and ecosystem services to human systems will likely cause reduced habitability of some small islands
high
2
train
6,171
AR6_WGII
2,136
3
The geographic ranges of the animal and plant species assessed have shifted from low to high latitudes in response to climate warming on land and in the ocean
very high
3
train
6,172
AR6_WGII
2,136
4
On land, climate change-induced shifts towards higher elevations are also common in biodiversity hotspots
high
2
train
6,173
AR6_WGII
2,136
5
In the ocean, abrupt mortality of habitat- forming species on coral reefs and kelp forests, especially following heatwaves, are increasing in frequency in biodiversity hotspots
high
2
train
6,174
AR6_WGII
2,136
9
All of these reduce climate resilience
very high
3
train
6,175
AR6_WGII
2,136
11
In spite of the lower climate velocities inside terrestrial hotspots, these areas are not projected to serve as effective climate refugia from the effects of global warming, especially for endemic species (unique to a hotspot)
medium
1
train
6,176
AR6_WGII
2,136
12
The greater climate velocities inside marine hotspots exposes their species to greater climate-induced pressures inside than outside hotspots
high
2
train
6,177
AR6_WGII
2,136
13
The differences between temperatures inside and outside of hotspots narrow with increasing warming
medium
1
train
6,178
AR6_WGII
2,136
15
Of the 6116 projections for more than 2700 species assessed in biodiversity hotspots, ~44% were found to be at high extinction risk, and ~24% at very high extinction risk due to climate change
medium
1
test
6,179
AR6_WGII
2,136
18
For a given evidence and agreement statement, different confidence levels can be assigned, but increasing levels of evidence and degrees of agreement are correlated with increasing confidence.endemic species than other native species
high
2
train
6,180
AR6_WGII
2,136
19
For these endemic species, considering all scenarios and time periods evaluated, ~100% on islands, ~84% on mountains, ~12% on continents (medium confidence) and ~54% in the ocean (notably the Mediterranean)
low
0
train
6,181
AR6_WGII
2,136
20
With further warming, increasingly high risks of local and global extinctions are projected in biodiversity hotspots from climate-related stressors
high
2
train
6,182
AR6_WGII
2,136
23
Adaptation options for biodiversity (e.g., expanding fully protected areas, restoration and sustainable use practices) are as applicable inside biodiversity hotspots as outside
high
2
train
6,183
AR6_WGII
2,137
19
Thus, terrestrial biodiversity hotspots have been warming slightly less, and marine hotspots considerably more than non-hotspots
medium
1
train
6,184
AR6_WGII
2,137
25
This suggests that, if these areas are subject to increased velocities, they will lose species that are not able to disperse fast enough to cope with the pace of climate change
medium
1
train
6,185
AR6_WGII
2,137
26
Climate velocities are 47% (Myers), 29% (G200, terrestrial) and 10% (G200, freshwater) lower inside biodiversity hotspots than outside, respectively (Kocsis et al., 2021), but are 69% higher inside marine hotspots than outside
medium
1
train
6,186
AR6_WGII
2,142
2
Marine species tend to follow climate velocities more closely than terrestrial species
high
2
train
6,187
AR6_WGII
2,142
5
The subtropics are then source areas of species that shift to temperate latitudes and so forth, such that observed impacts in marine biodiversity hotspots are largely attributable to species range shifts
high
2
train
6,188
AR6_WGII
2,142
6
Because marine climate velocities are significantly greater within than outside hotspots, marine hotspots are especially prone to species redistributions
medium
1
train
6,189
AR6_WGII
2,142
8
Thus, as already observed in the oceans around the equator, the loss of species in low latitudes will continue with future climate warming
high
2
train
6,190
AR6_WGII
2,143
7
Since the 1950s, marine species richness has shifted poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, increased in mid-latitudes and declined at the equator in concert with ocean warming
medium
1
train
6,191
AR6_WGII
2,143
8
Climate- driven altitudinal shifts are common on land (high confidence) (Lenoir and Svenning, 2015; Steinbauer et al., 2018), and depth shifts in the ocean may occur but are little studied
low
0
train
6,192
AR6_WGII
2,143
9
While climate-induced range expansions can be viewed as opportunities for increasing regional biodiversity, range contractions adversely affect biodiversity through regional extirpations
high
2
train
6,193
AR6_WGII
2,143
15
Modelled temperatures are projected to continue to be the highest in the tropics, indicating where there are more thermally stressful conditions for more species
high
2
train
6,194
AR6_WGII
2,143
16
By the end of this century, all terrestrial biodiversity hotspots in Central and South America, Africa, India and southern and eastern Asia (including the Indo–West Pacific islands) are projected to experience climates unprecedented in their species’ evolutionary history
medium
1
train
6,195
AR6_WGII
2,143
17
Based on WGI Interactive Atlas data (Gutiérrez et al., 2021), global warming is projected to affect terrestrial hotspots less than non- hotspot areas: 80% less for Myers and 95–96% less for G200 terrestrial and freshwater hotspots at global warming of 1.5°C–3°C
medium
1
train
6,196
AR6_WGII
2,143
18
In contrast, warming is projected to be 12–13% greater inside than outside marine hotspots
medium
1
train
6,197
AR6_WGII
2,143
19
Precipitation is generally projected to increase more in terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity hotspots compared to outside them
low
0
train
6,198
AR6_WGII
2,143
20
The exception is Myers hotspots, which are projected to have, on average, ~28% less precipitation at 1.5°C warming, but ~33% more at 2°C and ~65% more at 3°C
low
0
train
6,199
AR6_WGII
2,143
22
CCP1.2.1.2.2 Projected impacts on biodiversity Biodiversity hotspots are expected to be especially vulnerable to climate change because their endemic species have smaller geographic ranges
high
2
train