Datasets:
rlacombe
/
ClimateX

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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The options most widely associated with successful adaptation are ‘nature restoration’, ‘social safety nets’, ‘change of farm/fishery practice’ and ‘change of diets/reducing food waste’
high
2
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7,001
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For example, if health care could be provided with low GHG emissions, it would move closer towards successful adaptation
high
2
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7,002
AR6_WGII
2,614
12
For example, particular attention should be paid to prioritising benefits to low-income groups and leveraging the transformational potential of adaptation (having the largest number of large circles), that is, many evaluated options become maladaptive by exacerbating the vulnerability of low-income groups and by fortifying the status quo
medium
1
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7,003
AR6_WGII
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Through these criteria, a number of adaptation options contribute to a higher potential for successful adaptation
high
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7,004
AR6_WGII
2,616
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Distributive equity and justice: Attention to distributional equity and justice aims to ensure that adaptation interventions do not exacerbate inequities (Atteridge and Remling, 2018) and that the benefits and burdens of interventions are distributed fairly (Tschakert et al., 2013; Reckien et al., 2017; Reckien et al., 2018b; Pelling and Garschagen, 2019).A global assessment of 1682 papers on adaptation (Araos et al., 2021) finds that about 60% of articles mentioned at least one vulnerable group being involved in the implementation of adaptation or targeted by it
medium
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7,005
AR6_WGII
2,617
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Procedural justiceDifferential participation and power for more inclusive adaptation planning and implementation –Ensures that processes of representation and participation in adaptation planning, prioritisation and implementation are inclusive (Holland, 2017; Reckien et al., 2017; Reckien et al., 2018b)
medium
1
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7,006
AR6_WGII
2,618
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The majority of adaptation M&E efforts have so far focused on processes and outputs rather than on achieved outcomes such as climate risks, vulnerability, well-being or development (Droesch et al., 2008; GIZ and Adelphi, 2017; UNDP Cambodia, 2014; Fawcett et al., 2017)
high
2
train
7,007
AR6_WGII
2,618
17
Instead, they suggest that multiple complementary approaches combined with higher-frequency data collection produce a more elaborate picture of the effects of adaptation and resilience responses (Jones and d’Errico, 2019; Knippenberg et al., 2019; Singh et al., 2019; Jones, 2019a; see Cross-Chapter Box PROGRESS in this Chapter)
medium
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7,008
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To understand adaptation progress, the assessment of implemented adaptation actions and their outcomes requires more attention
very high
3
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7,009
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This Cross-Chapter Box responds to a growing demand for assessing global climate change adaptation progress, which currently faces the challenge of lacking consensus on how adaptation progress at this level can be tracked
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AR6_WGII
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Moreover, climate risks are interconnected across scales, regions and sectors (Eakin et al., 2009; Challinor et al., 2017; Cross-Chapter Box INTERREG in Chapter 16; Hedlund et al., 2018)
high
2
train
7,011
AR6_WGII
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Yet very few scientific studies have addressed the adaptation-specific aspects of the Global Stocktake (Craft and Fisher, 2018; Tompkins et al., 2018), and there are different views and options on how assessing global progress could take place
high
2
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7,012
AR6_WGII
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Due to the challenges inherent in measuring adaptation outcomes (Sections 16.3, 17.5.1 and 17.5.2.5), most global assessments to date have focused on outputs, such as whether countries have adopted adaptation plans (Berrang-Ford et al., 2021; UNEP , 2021a)
high
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Data Global assessments typically require global availability of consistent data, be they quantitative or qualitative, which has proven to be a constraining factor for attempts to assess global adaptation
high
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Adaptation is hence faced with a dilemma between globally available yet generic data and regionally or locally more detailed yet patchy data
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Assessment of existing approaches to assess adaptation progress at the global level Only few global assessments of adaptation progress across sectors have been undertaken to date
high
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The application of differing approaches shows that there is no single ‘best’ approach or data source to assess global progress on adaptation
high
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However, they do not provide comprehensive and robust answers so far on whether climate risk and vulnerability have been reduced (Berrang-Ford et al., 2021)
high
2
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7,018
AR6_WGII
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Important considerations for a robust assessment framework (e.g., consistency), as well as the associated scientific challenges (e.g., aggregation, externalities, breadth versus depth of data) and the role of underlying objectives (e.g., on the contested issue of comparability) are increasingly understood
high
2
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7,019
AR6_WGII
2,624
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Each approach and source of information can contribute additional knowledge, but also demonstrates limitations, so that there is no single ‘best’ approach
high
2
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7,020
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2,624
4
Triangulated assessments have only rarely been applied
high
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train
7,021
AR6_WGII
2,625
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Importantly, adaptations need to be designed to not only combat current and future climate risks but also ensure that they do not lock in undesirable pathways in the future as risks develop and change
very high
3
train
7,022
AR6_WGII
2,625
6
Effective management of climate risks will therefore be dependent on satisfactorily managing current climate risks (Boxes 17.1, 17.2, 17.5), coupled with assessing prognoses for future climate risks, and developing responses in advance for reducing those risks to tolerable residual levels
very high
3
train
7,023
AR6_WGII
2,625
7
The dynamic nature of risk (Viner et al., 2019; Simpson et al., 2021; Sections 16.3, 16.6) also means that the contribution of current adaptations to ameliorating future risks needs to be regularly reviewed
high
2
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7,024
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These examples demonstrate that the emergence of climate risks can be at different rates and different time horizons, and the interactions between risks vary from region to region
very high
3
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7,025
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17
Different decision-making approaches can be complementary (high confidence) (Section 17.3.1; Kwakkel et al., 2016), and multiple approaches will likely be necessary in managing the risks across sectors, over different spatial scales, and over short to long time scales
medium
1
train
7,026
AR6_WGII
2,625
18
Deciding on which adaptations to adopt when managing climate risks inevitably needs examination of trade-offs in outcomes
very high
3
train
7,027
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2,625
20
For climate resilient development, dimensions of poverty, equity, justice and health need to be factored into analyses (Boxes 17.1, 17.5), many of which are difficult to quantify
high
2
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7,028
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Moreover, uncertainties on the interactions within and between sectors can make trade-off analyses uneven in their precision across sectors and uncertain as to the outcome of an implemented adaptation
medium
1
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7,029
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2,625
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Expertise and resources for using tools and approaches for integrated risk management vary between the developed and developing countries
high
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7,030
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23
Exploration of adaptation scenarios can be derived from Earth System Models
high
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7,031
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2,626
1
The current levels of uncertainty surrounding the effectiveness of many adaptation options (Section 17.5.2; Cross- Chapter Box PROGRESS in this Chapter) means that decision- making approaches applicable to deep uncertainty (Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in this Chapter; Section 17.3.1) will apply in many if not most cases
medium
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An early step in identifying suitable integrated pathways for managing climate risks, establishing ‘no regrets’ anticipatory options in a timely manner, and avoiding path dependencies is to jointly map the steps for adapting to sectoral risks and determine suitable ways to avoid maladaptations arising
high
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7,033
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7
Since AR5, the challenges facing the management of climate risks have been articulated (Adger et al., 2018; Balasubramanian, 2018), and greater clarity on the steps that could be taken to better mainstream adaptation has been developed
high
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7,034
AR6_WGII
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11
Integrated risk assessments and adaptation processes are being developed but with much less experience evident in their implementation
high
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They found that the plans were more oriented at the strategic level or at the level of specific projects rather than identifying methods for resolving cross-sectoral or cross-jurisdictional interactions or issues
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A key recommendation from their review and supported by other studies (e.g., Abutaleb et al., 2018) is that plans would be improved greatly by having inputs from multiple government agencies and multiple sectors
medium
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Hence, satisfactorily managing intersecting climate risks in different settings, of which RKRs provide examples, is central to achieving sustainable development (high confidence) (Section 16.6.4), requiring integrated risk management within and across regions, jurisdictions, sectors and ecosystems
high
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Iterative processes will enable measuring progress and updating adaptation at a satisfactory rate, to account for the different needs within regions and across sectors at different times
high
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The degree to which equity and justice will be achieved will be determined by the participatory processes in deciding on suitable adaptation options, the investment in the adaptation processes and the coordination and collaboration built among institutions and people across regions
high
2
train
7,040
AR6_WGII
2,668
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Similarly, universal water and energy access can help to reduce poverty and improve well-being while making populations less vulnerable and more resilient to adverse climate impacts
very high
3
train
7,041
AR6_WGII
2,668
8
Severe risks to natural and human systems are already observed in some places (high confidence) and could occur in many more systems worldwide before mid-century (medium confidence) and by the end of the century at all scales, from the local to the global, and at all latitudes and altitudes
high
2
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7,042
AR6_WGII
2,668
10
Various global trends, including rising income inequality, continued growth in greenhouse gas emissions, land use change, food and water insecurity, human displacement and reversals of long-term increasing life expectancy trends in some nations, run counter to the SDGs
very high
3
train
7,043
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2,668
15
For a given evidence and agreement statement, different confidence levels can be assigned, but increasing levels of evidence and degrees of agreement are correlated with increasing confidence.exacerbate injustices, as well as constrain the implementation of CRD for all
very high
3
train
7,044
AR6_WGII
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16
Climate change intensifies existing vulnerability and inequality, with adverse impacts of climate change on the most vulnerable groups, including women and children in low-income households, Indigenous or other minority groups, small-scale producers and fishing communities, and low-income countries
high
2
train
7,045
AR6_WGII
2,668
17
Most vulnerable regions and population groups, such as in East, Central and West Africa, South Asia, Micronesia and Melanesia, and Central America, present the most urgent need for adaptation
high
2
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7,046
AR6_WGII
2,668
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Moving towards different pathways involves confronting complex synergies and trade-offs between development pathways, and the options, contested values and interests that underpin climate mitigation and adaptation choices
very high
3
train
7,047
AR6_WGII
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5
Prevailing development pathways are not advancing CRD
very high
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train
7,048
AR6_WGII
2,669
7
Some low-emissions pathways and climate outcomes are unlikely2 to be realised
very high
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7,049
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10
Increasing mitigation effort across multiple sectors exhibits opportunities for synergies with sustainable development, but also trade-offs that increase with mitigation efforts, that need to be balanced and managed
high
2
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7,050
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2,669
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Developing and transitional economies are estimated as low-cost mitigation opportunities but are often at high risk from climate change due to their regional and development context
high
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This Report also uses the term ‘likely range’ to indicate that the assessed likelihood of an outcome lies within the 17–83% probability range.Systems transitions can enable CRD when accompanied by appropriate enabling conditions and inclusive arenas of engagement
very high
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Past choices have already eliminated some development pathways, but other pathways for CRD remain
very high
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Prospects for transformation towards CRD increase when key governance actors work together in inclusive and constructive ways to create a set of appropriate enabling conditions {Section 18.4.2}
high
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7,054
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2,670
4
CRDPs are determined through engagement in different arenas, the degree to which the emergent pathways foster just and CRD depends on how contending societal interests, values and worldviews are reconciled through inclusive and participatory interactions between governance actors in these arenas of engagement {Section 18.4.3}
high
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7,055
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2,670
9
Economic sectors and global regions are exposed to different opportunities and challenges in facilitating CRD, suggesting adaptation and mitigation options should be aligned to local and regional context and development pathways
very high
3
train
7,056
AR6_WGII
2,670
17
People, acting through enabling social, economic and political institutions are the agents of system and societal transformations that facilitate CRD founded on the principles of inclusion, equity, climate justice, ecosystem health and human well-being
very high
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train
7,057
AR6_WGII
2,670
20
For example, grounding adaptation actions in local realities could help to ensure that adaptive actions do not worsen existing gender and other inequities within society (e.g., leading to maladaptation practices)
high
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7,058
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Pursuing CRD involves considering a broader range of sustainable development priorities, policies and practices, as well as enabling societal choices to accelerate and deepen their implementation
very high
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train
7,059
AR6_WGII
2,671
5
The literature presenting research findings on climate resilient development (CRD) and pathways and processes for successfully achieving CRD has expanded significantly in the several years since the AR5
very high
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train
7,060
AR6_WGII
2,671
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Furthermore, the literature describing the role of system transitions and societal transformation in enabling climate action (Box 18.1, Section 18.3), compliance with the Paris Agreement (Sections 18.1.3, 18.2.1) and achievement of the SDGs (Section 18.1.3; Box 18.4) has expanded significantly
very high
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7,061
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However, studies that explicitly refer to CRD as a concept or a guide for policy and practice remain modest
very high
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7,062
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2,672
3
Moreover, current commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are not yet consistent with limiting changes in global mean temperature elevation to well-below 2°C or 1.5°C
very high
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7,063
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Exceeding these boundaries poses increased risk of large-scale abrupt or irreversible environmental changes that would threaten human and ecological well-being
very high
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train
7,064
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2,672
31
Furthermore, while a given pathway might lead to a set of desired outcomes for one region or set of actors, the process of getting there may come at high environmental, socio- and economic cost to others
very high
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train
7,065
AR6_WGII
2,677
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Since the AR5, the volume of research at the nexus of climate action and sustainable development has changed markedly
very high
3
train
7,066
AR6_WGII
2,677
13
Nevertheless, the concept of resilience generally, and CRD specifically, has come under increasing criticism in recent years
very high
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train
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For example, the COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to have reversed gains over the past several years in terms of global poverty reduction
very high
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train
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2,677
26
For example, recent literature on CRD emphasises the urgency of climate action that achieve significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the implementation of adaptation options that result in significant gains in human and natural system resilience
very high
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train
7,069
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2,678
8
Second, CRD is dependent on achieving transitions in key systems including energy, land and ecosystem, urban and infrastructure, and industrial systems
very high
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train
7,070
AR6_WGII
2,678
20
Fifth, CRD involves processes involving diverse actors, at different scales operating within an environmental, developmental, socioeconomic, cultural and political context, as typified in the SDG and the Paris Agreement negotiations
very high
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train
7,071
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2,679
9
Systems transitions alone are insufficient to achieve the rapid, fundamental and comprehensive changes required for humanity and planetary health in the face of climate change
high
2
train
7,072
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10
Transformative action is increasingly urgent across all sectors, systems and scales to avert dangerous climate change and meet the SDGs (Pelling et al., 2015; IPCC, 2018a; IPCC, 2021b; Shi and Moser, 2021; Vogel and O’Brien, 2021)
high
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7,073
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Transformative actions aimed at ‘deliberately and fundamentally changing systems to achieve more just and equitable outcomes’, (Shi and Moser, 2021: 2) shift pathways towards climate resilient development (CRD)
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Climate actions that support CRD are embedded in these dimensions of development; for example, social cohesion and equity, individual and collective agency, and democratising knowledge processes have been identified as steps to transform practices and governance systems for increased resilience (Ziervogel et al., 2016b; Nightingale et al., 2020; Colloff et al., 2021; Vogel and O’Brien, 2021)
high
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Transformation may require actions that disrupt moral or social boundaries and structures that are perpetuating unsustainable systems and pathways (Vogel and O’Brien, 2021)
high
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Extreme events and long-term climatic changes can trigger a realigning of practices, politics and knowledge (Carr, 2019; Schipper et al., 2020b)
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7,077
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Climate shocks, when managed within socio-political systems in ways that safeguard rather than alter practices and structures, can also reinforce rather than shift the status quo (Mosberg et al., 2017; Carr, 2019; Marmot and Allen, 2020; Arifeen and Nyborg, 2021)
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1
There has been an increase in transformative actions taking place through city-level resilience building aimed at shifting inequitable relations and opening up space for a plurality of actors (Rosenzweig and Solecki, 2018; Ziervogel et al., 2021)
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4
Transformative actions meet resistance by precisely the political, social, knowledge and technical systems and structures they are attempting to transform (Blythe et al., 2018; Shi and Moser, 2021)
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7,080
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5
There is expanding evidence that many adaptation efforts have failed to be transformative, but instead entrenched inequities, exacerbated power imbalances and reinforced vulnerability among marginalised groups and that, instead, marginalised groups and future trends in vulnerability need to be placed at the centre of adaptation planning (Atteridge and Remling, 2018; Mikulewicz, 2019; Owen, 2020; Eriksen et al., 2021a; Eriksen et al., 2021b; Garschagen et al., 2021)
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1
Others may experience acute challenges with adaptation due to existing vulnerability associated with poverty and social inequality
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While demonstrable progress has been made towards the SDGs and improving human well-being, globally and in specific nations, some observed patterns of development are inconsistent with sustainable development and the principles of CRD
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While there are many possible successful pathways to future development in the context of climate change, history shows that pathways positive for the vast majority of people typically induce significant impacts and costs, especially on marginal and vulnerable people
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As empirical studies in the Global South have demonstrated (Lele et al., 2018), developing countries face multiple stressors, climate change being just one among them, and there are multiple normative concerns in developing country contexts, such as equity and justice, and not merely resilience
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10
For example, pathways that lead to poverty reduction can have synergies with food security, water, gender, terrestrial and ocean ecosystems that support climate risk management, but also poverty alleviation projects with unintended negative consequences that increase vulnerability (e.g., Ley, 2017; Ley et al., 2020).While the scenarios literature is useful for characterising the potential climate risk implications of different global societal futures, important limitations impact their use in climate risk management planning
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Importantly, the scenarios literature overall has found trade-offs such that none of the global societal projections achieve all the SDGs
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For all climate projections and variables, there is significant regional heterogeneity and uncertainty in projected climate change
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5
Thus, adaptation interventions and pathways can further the achievement of development goals such as food security (Campbell et al., 2016; Douxchamps et al., 2016; Richardson et al., 2018; Bezner Kerr et al., 2019) and improvements in human health (Watts et al., 2019) including in systems where animals and humans live in close proximity
very high
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7
Since AR5, the scientific community has deepened its understanding of the relationship between adaptation and sustainable development
very high
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The critical literature on socio-ecological resilience, which has grown substantially since the last AR
very high
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3
Adaptation gaps or deficits arise from a lack of adequate technological, financial, social, and institutional capacities to adapt effectively to climate change and extreme weather events, which are in turn linked to development
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7,092
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7
Despite the challenges of measurement associated with adaptation gaps, available evidence from smaller scales across several regions, communities and businesses suggest that significant adaptation gaps have existed in historical contexts of climate change, while expectations of extreme heat, increasing storm intensity and rising sea levels will create the context for the emergence of new gaps
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10
A higher level of adaptation finance is critical to enhance adaptation planning and implementation and reduce adaptation gaps, particularly in developing countries
very high
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1
There are numerous individual and system mitigation options throughout the economy and within human and natural systems
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2
Limiting global average warming has been found to reduce climate risks (IPCC, 2018a; IPCC, 2019b), and limiting global average warming to any temperature level has also been found to be associated with broad ranges of potential global emissions pathways that represent future uncertainty in the evolution of socioeconomic, technological, market and physical systems
very high
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7,096
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16
In general, mitigation alters development opportunities by constraining the emissions future society can produce, which affects markets, resource allocation, economic structure, income distribution, consumers and the environment (besides climate)
very high
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7,097
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2,698
21
Nonlinearities have been estimated in global and regional mitigation costs and potential economic damages from climate change
very high
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28
Not only do trade-offs vary by climate level, as do synergies, but they increase at an increasing rate and their relative importance can shift across climate levels
very high
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For instance, additional mitigation options and more economically efficient policy designs have been shown to reduce mitigation costs and the nonlinearities in mitigation costs
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