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The third and final task should be to oversee the activities and risks of these banking groups. To set up the EOFS one would, to start with, need to second staff from national supervisors and central banks. Initially the EOFS should probably only have limited powers, namely to collect information and undertake on-sight...
In order to reap the benefits from economies of scale and scope, Nordea has chosen to concentrate its different functions, such as treasury operations, credit decision-making and risk management to specific centres of competence within the group. It is therefore questionable whether the different entities within the gr...
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Ardo Hansson: Working together for the good of the EU and Estonia Opening speech by Mr Ardo Hansson, Governor of the Bank of Estonia (Eesti Pank), to the Ragnar Nurkse Lecture for the 95th Anniversary of Eesti Pank, Tallinn, 4 November 2014. * * * Professor Balcerowicz, President of the Riigikogu, Chair of the Super...
Instead, there are many reasons to believe that more stable economic performance over time also leads to conditions that foster high growth and employment. Moreover, a simple comparison of unemployment data between the periods before and after the shift in regime proves rather misleading. This is because of the attempt...
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According to UN estimates 2 , by 2050 Europe's population will have shrunk by more than 70 million, that is by around 10%. In the same period, Asia's and Africa's population will have grown by 1,300 million and more than one billion respectively. This means that we should expect a gradual shift in the centre of gravity...
All else equal, the removal of a considerable amount of this risk by the Fed’s purchases would be expected to lower agency MBS rates by lowering this extra return, thereby reducing primary mortgage rates, stimulating demand for housing, and prompting increased refinancing activity. Indeed, 3 See responses to June 201...
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The challenge is to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, respond to market and regulatory demands and, most of all, gain competitive advantage through innovative products and services. The overall Islamic financial system, comprising financial institutions, markets and the financial infrastructure, has demonstrated its...
Hoerova and Monnet (2011) view market 6 BIS central bankers’ speeches money market (as demand might not be fully matched by supply) and segmentation in the market between maturities over and below 30 days. At the same time, by reducing liquidity risk, the LCR may lead to lower liquidity risk premia. The overall effe...
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This would have negative consequences for investment, competitiveness, growth and employment in the euro area. So there cannot be any “benign neglect” with respect to the exchange rate. A stable and strong currency contributes to lowering long-term interest rates, which play a crucial role in the financing of the econo...
In the model, the central bank therefore raises its policy rate to curb the rise in inflation and gradually bring it down. The tighter monetary stance, which in this model is represented by an increase in the real interest rate, results in a negative output gap. [10] The extent to which monetary policy should be tighte...
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BIS central bankers’ speeches 3 Returns important for preservation of real value That brings me to the third criterion for our investment activity – return. I would like to stress that the SNB is not concerned with maximising return for its own sake. Rather, return is inextricably linked to the criterion of security....
The issue is whether this world, however desirable, is realistic. There are some reasons for doubt. Financial system reinvention One of the likely consequences of the crisis, and the resulting regulatory response, is that the financial system will reinvent itself. Financial activity will migrate outside the banking sys...
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At the moment, both total, or headline, inflation and core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, have increased but remain below levels consistent with our dual mandate objectives – which most members of the FOMC consider to be 2 percent or a bit less on the personal consumption expenditures me...
Last year, some of Puerto Rico’s banks were consolidated and many improved their balance sheets by selling underperforming assets. Both of these steps are likely to produce stronger, healthier institutions more able to make the sound lending decisions that support economic growth. 6 BIS central bankers’ speeches All ...
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The structure and condition of the financial system at any given time is determined by historical factors, economic and market conditions, the regulatory environment, technology, and culture and ethics. The Central Bank and the regulatory environment are also part of the financial system. The public sector can affect d...
Jean-Claude Trichet: Lessons from the crisis and steps towards economic stability Keynote speech by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), at the 9th Munich Economic Summit, Munich, 29 April 2010. * * * Sehr geehrter Herr Bundespräsident, lieber Horst Köhler, Sehr geehrter Herr Chrobog...
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Political leadership has support from relatively broad economic and social groups, with more impersonal relationships and hence stronger competition and mobility. The authors argue that the transition between development stages to what they refer to as “the second social revolution”, a somewhat broader concept than the...
Labourers might receive partial payment for their efforts in kind, or at large mills, in scrip that could only be used for purchases in the company store. The monetisation of the economy, based on secure monetary values, severed many of these ties of dependency. With money in their pockets, accepted as legal tender eve...
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While the pandemic was raging, it was said again and again that these were unprecedented times. This is true, in that even though plagues have occurred repeatedly throughout human history, there has never before been an attempt to halt the spread of a pandemic with public health measures so wide-ranging that they extin...
And even though they may have wanted to counteract inflation, they did not have the independence to do so. Furthermore, spiking oil prices were responded to with pay hikes, creating a vicious cycle of rising wages and prices – a typical wage-price spiral. This is why inflation was not brought under control until centra...
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In order to have a more accurate picture of the delinquency rate, we calculate the “effective delinquency rate” by excluding this 46 percent of borrowers not in repayment; the result is shown in the right-hand panel of Chart 5. This effective delinquency rate is nearly double the measured delinquency rate, with almost ...
In addition, higher education is an important export industry in which the US holds a significant comparative advantage. This produces a better understanding among foreigners of the US and vice versa. All of these social benefits mean that there is an appropriate role for the public sector in helping to finance higher ...
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Ladies and gentlemen, Non-bank financial institutions are a significant component of the financial sector as their assets constitute a significant proportion of the total financial sector assets in most countries in the region. Similarly, microfinance institutions play a critical role in poverty alleviation and economi...
BIS central bankers’ speeches 1 Ladies and gentlemen, I note with gratitude that this workshop is designed to address supervisory standards in the non-bank and microfinance sector through three main themes, namely; i) regulatory structures, ii) international trends and standards, and iii) integration of non-bank...
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That is enough to offset a reduction in GDP of some 1.5%10 – three times the Bank’s estimate of the hit from the direct effects of the tariffs implemented so far (Table 1). Indeed, the scale of market moves suggests a shock to US and Chinese business confidence and investment analogous to what has happened in the UK (T...
The Bank of Albania judges that in the period ahead, inflationary pressures along the time horizon of monetary policy stance will remain relatively high, but their intensity will decrease during the year. In the following, I will analyse in detail the factors determining inflation developments and related risks. During...
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Low but gradually rising inflation Inflation in Sweden has been low for a long period of time and we devoted extra space to this fact in the July report.1 It is not so strange that inflation has been low, given the Swedish economy’s dependence on global economic activity. One of the main reasons is that prices of Swedi...
Pillar 2 recognises that national supervisors may have different ways of entering into such discussions and provides flexibility to accommodate those differences. At the same time, Pillar 2 will ensure that supervisors share insight 2 BIS Review 42/2003 into their approaches with others and will foster a better unde...
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Mary will say a lot more about this in her keynote address, so let me highlight briefly some of what MAS has been doing on this front. MAS has conducted a stocktake of culture and conduct practices across selected financial institutions. Our supervisors had extensive one-on-one conversations with not just the managemen...
Anita Angelovska Bezhoska: The Republic of Macedonia has accessed the highest statistical data dissemination standard of the IMF - SDDS Plus Address by Ms Anita Angelovska Bezhoska, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, at the event marking the adherence of the Republic of Macedonia to the IMF’s S...
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Sargent and Wallace (1981), Leeper (1991), Bianchi and Melosi (2018)) examine the implications for monetary policy of an exogenous and unsustainable path for fiscal policy; another (e.g. Dixit and Lambertini (2003)) considers the strategic interaction between the two when the monetary authority has more conservative ob...
According to a report from the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, the median tenure of workers ages 25 to 34 is only three years – less than a third of the tenure among people aged 55 to 64 years old. 1 And, according a Future Workplace “Multiple Generations@Work” survey, 91 percent of “millennials”...
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This reflects trends that point to smaller household sizes; the young moving out from family homes earlier, including to take jobs in urban cities; and an ageing population preferring to remain in their homes than move in with their adult children. Such demand pressures have been further compounded by income levels tha...
This underscores an important truth. Housing is not just about putting a roof over our heads, nor is it only a personal or financial issue. Assuring housing stability helps ensure that households can meet other basic needs and establish roots that build stronger communities. The challenges facing affordable housing are...
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The first is the pressure that strong growth in Asia and other rapidly growing emerging market economies is placing on the markets for energy and other natural resources. We have already seen this pressure reflected in a strong upward move in global energy and commodity prices since the early 2000s, as Chart 5 shows. A...
Caleb M Fundanga: Bringing banking facilities closer to the people in Zambia Speech by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the official opening of the Stanbic Bank Matero Branch, Matero, Lusaka, 2 February 2005. * * * • Your Excellency, the South African High Commissioner to Zambia, Mr. Mzwandil...
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6 BIS Review 16/2005 Chart 1: Absolute changes in quarterly inflation Percentage points 6.0 RPI 5.0 Consumption deflator 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 S ource: Bank of England and O NS Table 1: Average absolute changes in quarterly inflation and GDP growth RPI 1960-...
Against this backdrop, the facing of the economic activity contraction at a global level remains an open issue. The Euro area economy is already experiencing an economic slowdown. Euro area GDP contracted in the third quarter while the unemployment rate reached 7.8 percent in November 2008. The U.S. economy showed quit...
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Meanwhile, we are in the process of negotiating with National Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina, National Bank of Serbia, etc. I estimate that regional co-operation is an important forerunner of the integration process of the region with the rest of Europe; therefore I will not stop working to encourage a regional co-oper...
These developments will push up inflation and imply that the policy rate must be set higher than we envisaged earlier for inflation to return to target. Price stability is essential for a well-functioning economy. High inflation is weakening household purchasing power, and lower-income households with the smallest marg...
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Prominent among the measures that have been announced or that are pending approval or final design include occupational pension schemes, a review of maximum social security contribution bases and maximum pensions, a new contribution system for self-employed workers, and a review of the reference period for calculating ...
We will then have detailed data on GDP for the third quarter, preliminary data on the balance of payments for the entire 2019, as well as current economic statistics for December and first data on inflation in January. We will adjust our mid-term forecast based on this information. Winding up, I would like to get back ...
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But even making an adjustment for that, the rise in inflation breakevens is significant. Of course, if inflation at long horizons is not generally expected to increase as the forward rates at face value might indicate, why don’t some other investors with different risk appetites sell short the overpriced index-linked b...
The Bank of Albania is an active supporter of financial and economic integration, considering it as one of the most important pillars to release the potential of the economy and boost its resilience to shocks. 3. On the Memorandum All the above, underlines the great importance of our economic and financial cooperation ...
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4. Similar platforms have proliferated around the world, but the trade finance gulf continues to widen. According to the Asian Development Bank, about 10% of global trade suffer from the trade financing gap.1 To put this into perspective, the value of the gap amounted to USD $ trillion in 2020, marking a 15% increase f...
Eddie Yue: Connecting the digital islands - next steps in trade finance Opening remarks by Mr Eddie Yue, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the roundtable on “The Future of Trade Finance: Opportunities for Hong Kong, Asia and the World”, co-organised by the University of Hong Kong (HKU) Asia Global...
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I will conclude by returning to my starting point, to the importance and the scarcity of time in dealing with a troubled financial firm. The important role time plays at a failing firm The seeds of any financial failure are generally planted years earlier. The cycle is familiar to us all – in good times, most business ...
Consumption and private sector investments were weak, whereas foreign demand continued to slow down, given the economic situation in our trading partner countries. The private agents’ uncertainty about the future was reflected in low propensity to spend and weak credit demand. This uncertainty prevented the transmissio...
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2 General aspects of the European regulations The European Union, as reflected in the FSB’s second Peer Review on Resolution Regimes published in 2016, is one of the jurisdictions where the Key Attributes have been most rigorously implemented. Allow me to highlight some of the main features. First, the regulations con...
All told, institutions should be mindful that the new resolution framework will require those banks that exceed a certain size and are liable to generate systemic risk to ensure that their balance sheet structure allows their resolution at the expense, essentially, of their shareholders and creditors. They should, ther...
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Now it includes 38 of 91 eligible funds inspected by the Bank of Russia. Many funds had to improve the quality of their assets to enter the system. Furthermore, actuarial industry has been launched in compliance with the law; today we have a bit more than 100 actuaries. They are active and it is an important segment of...
We always cooperate with the market in financial technologies and innovations. Thereby, in 2015, we held the first forum on innovative financial technologies; it was in demand with businesses and we are going to hold it again in autumn. We have established an institution of bond programmes. The development of debt inst...
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Based on the analysis of these channels, the direct effects of the war on Spanish foreign trade are expected to be moderate, as its bilateral trade flows with Russia are relatively limited. Nevertheless, the indirect effects may be significant. Spain’s share of energy products imported from Russia is admittedly relativ...
These short and medium-term challenges must not allow us to overlook the need to address the structural challenges that the banking sector was already facing before the onset of the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In particular, the need for capacity adjustment, as well as the growing competition from tec...
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At the same time, business start-ups remain at a record level, at over 400,000 excluding microentrepreneurs. Similarly, we do not have any general concerns about the reimbursement of SGLs. Since February 2022, we have received 671 requests, covering less than 0.1% of the total number of SGLs. Of the EUR 143 billion tha...
Spreads and volatility have also been lower for longer, although there is some market discrimination between agents and between emerging market economies (EMEs), as well as periodic spikes in volatility, especially recently. Next, why are inflation or interest rates so low and how does this impact policy? First puzzle:...
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Banks must integrate customer protection in the risk appetite framework and in the three lines of defence. Of course, as with all cultural change, to be successfully implemented, it must begin at senior management level. In order to be able to develop and implement this new culture, it is essential for the governing bo...
In the academic literature, some have suggested that the central bank can increase economic stability or reduce the negative effects of slow price adjustment by stabilising an index with fewer prices and weights other than those in the consumer price index.3 Prices that adjust slowly should have a relatively higher wei...
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In our forthcoming report for 2021, which will be published in the next few weeks, we have sought to build on last year’s content to provide additional context and analysis. In March last year, I outlined our intention to assess ways that our holdings of corporate bonds could be adjusted to take the climate impact of i...
In addition, this year COP26 has an ambitious agenda that spans all of the areas that I have spoken about today – in particular establishing a better understanding of best practice, and fostering greater technical cooperation. The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ)12 initiative will do this by bringing tog...
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For the first time in two years the median price for houses has fallen, according to Swedbank’s Boindex. Moreover, the rate of increase in household borrowing from mortgage institutions is now slightly lower than it was in the spring. Of course, it is impossible to draw any far-reaching conclusions solely on the basis ...
Judging from the surveys we make of inflation expectations, monetary policy in this respect has a very high level of credibility. • The Riksbank also has the task of safeguarding financial stability. We see no problems with regard to financial stability at present. The fact that we emphasise developments in house pric...
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Subsidiarisation of systemically-important foreign banks Local banks are required to maintain a minimum of $ in paid-up capital and meet MAS' capital adequacy ratio requirements to ensure that they have adequate resources to support and expand their operations. MAS’ requirement of a minimum of 8 percent Tier I capital ...
Local banks' upgrading and consolidation Since the first liberalisation package was announced, the local banks have made progress in building up their capabilities. They have generally strengthened their management teams, and invested heavily in infrastructure to provide banking services more efficiently, especially vi...
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Paul Tucker: A few remarks on current monetary policy in a rebalancing economy Speech by Mr Paul Tucker, Deputy Governor for Financial Stability at the Bank of England, at The Joint 1900/City Club Lunch, London, 22 November 2011. * * * The outlook for economic activity has deteriorated over the past few months. The ...
I do not think it is coincidence that arguably the two most significant monetary policy decisions taken over the past year – the decision to reduce Bank Rate by 1.5 percentage points in November and the announcement in February that the Committee had sought approval to use the Asset Purchase Facility to conduct large s...
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Is Germany imposing its conditions on the rest of Europe? The ECB has a range of tools to ensure price stability and the proper functioning of the market. It can remedy market disruptions. It has done so several times in recent years to avoid a “credit crunch” by greatly increasing its provision of liquidity to the ban...
In the two years since, the severe global health and economic crisis faced by the world has brought these trends into even sharper focus. For example, the pandemic has highlighted and deepened long-standing vulnerabilities in Malaysia and many places around the world. These include the fragile state of social protectio...
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Karolina Ekholm: Why Swedish monetary policy needs to be more expansionary Speech by Ms Karolina Ekholm, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at Almega (employer and trade organisation for the Swedish service sector), Stockholm, 15 November 2013. * * * The views expressed in this speech are my own and are not n...
Lending to households and companies Annual percentage change Note. Lending to households and companies according to financial market statistics. Source: Statistics Sweden. Figure 4. Annual change in the major banks’ lending Per cent and contributions in percentage points 25 25 Swedish mortgages Other lending to Swedi...
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The European Central Bank can also be said to target inflation in practice, without a formal commitment. Broadly speaking, all these central banks have a similar approach. Inflation targeting requires careful preparation of forecasts for economic aggregates – not least inflation – a high degree of central bank transpar...
The Central Bank has pointed out how the small amount of outstanding Treasury bonds in the market hinders policy rate changes from being transmitted with the necessary weight. Price formation in the bond market is imperfect. The Bank has aired the idea that the Treasury should issue bonds with the explicit purpose of m...
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12 The new committee for financial stability at the Bank of England will take responsibility for decisions on macrostability, but not traditional supervisory issues, which will also be moved to the Bank of England. The new committee partly consists of the same people as the monetary policy committee. 12 BIS central b...
This means that he is also included in the Steering Committee that prepares the General Board’s meetings and monitors the ESRB’s current work, and in the Advisory Scientific Committee, which is the other advisory body. BIS central bankers’ speeches 7 continued financial stability work is formed by stress tests of the...
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But it would gradually be brought back to low levels, so that we were equipped for the next war. A big question in the modern world is what level of government debt/GDP would be needed by countries in economic peacetime if societies wished them to be able to offset economic disasters. The immediate focus is on addressi...
In most countries central banks play an important role in financial stability. Because of their monetary policy function, central banks have an indepth knowledge of the financial system. They are independent anchors for monetary stability. They also have a clear interest in financial stability because of its beneficial...
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Yesterday we learnt that inflation in May rose to 3.3%. In line with our remit, I sent an open letter to the Chancellor. As I said in my letter, inflation is set to increase further over the next few months. Oil prices have doubled since the beginning of last year, and, in real terms, are now as high as they were in th...
Consequently, this policy can only be effective if the authority responsible for defining and implementing is credible. The conjunction of a clear, overriding objective of price stability (which has been explicitly laid down in the statute of the ECB), with well-established institutional independence ensures the contin...
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This is the focus of the related field of “behavioural economics” and the work of the Nobel laureate Robert Schillervi. Page 7 of 14 To respect the mandate entrusted to us under the Treaties, one thing remains certain: in the face of the too-low level of inflation caused by the cooling of the economy since the end of ...
In the near term, the euro area should continue to benefit from a recovery in exports, the significant macroeconomic stimulus under way and the measures taken so far to restore the functioning of the financial system. In addition, the inventory cycle is expected to contribute positively. However, uncertainty remains hi...
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The algorithms of automatic trading have rules embedded in their code such that quotes are immediately pulled if there is a severe market liquidity event. Moreover, the algorithms often have automatic rules that activate circuit breakers or socalled “kill switches” should the aggregate notional risk on a firm’s book ex...
Heng Swee Keat: Dealing with the implications of the crisis and implementing policy reforms Keynote address by Mr Heng Swee Keat, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Opening of EDHEC-Risk Institute, Asia, Singapore, 21 January 2011. * * * His Excellency Olivier Caron Ambassador of France...
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These fora, where finance ministers, central bank governors, and financial regulators meet regularly with each other and with their private sector counterparts, have achieved an important voice in the global financial community in recent years. In the area of banking supervision, EMEAP – comprising ASEAN 5, China, Japa...
A rational domestic demand and import policies will be required (with a 5.3% rise in imports, given the oil price growth), in order to keep the current account deficit at about 6.5% of GDP (EUR 3 billion), the same as in the current year. Of course, this implies a continuation of heavy dependence on foreign sources of ...
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So, have we done enough in terms of financial inclusion? 14. The pandemic has taught us that we must deepen our commitment to financial inclusion. And we should try to weave that into our financial development objectives going forward. In fact, our ability to enhance the financial inclusion role can be helped hugely by...
HKMA, as both a banking regulator and market facilitator, has the role of creating a conducive environment for this to happen. Therefore, we have launched a new Fintech 2025 strategy recently and will work hand in hand with the industry along this fintech journey. 18. Of course, we are mindful that technology can be a ...
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Norges Bank has recently estimated a relation for house prices. The model contains effects of the housing stock, the unemployment rate, banks’ lending rates after tax, total wage income in the economy and an indicator of household expectations concerning their own financial situation and the Norwegian economy. In the w...
Switzerland’s only major drawback is the fact that it is a lightweight in the geopolitical arena, which makes it almost impossible for it to defend itself against protectionist tendencies and discriminatory measures taken by big countries. The Swiss government must therefore take a strong stand on behalf of free trade,...
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Let me elaborate a bit more on these three themes: the need for an encompassing and integrated set of data, the achievements of, and outlook for, euro area statistics and the ECB’s framework for analysing this information. Monetary policy and the need for an encompassing and integrated set of data If we lived in the wo...
Less than a decade ago, we did not even have the statistical requirements for the Monetary Union, let alone the statistics themselves for the euro area. Today, euro area statistics compare favourably with those of other major countries in many respects. A concrete example is the monthly balance of payments for the euro...
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In others, the fiscal position is strong enough to stabilize the debt dynamics, but provides little buffer against adverse shocks, and very little room for fiscal policy to help cushion the effects of such a shock. 2 BIS Review 37/2004 • Important challenges remain in the financial area as well. In many countries, l...
We assess the models banks use to measure risk and the scenarios used to stress test exposures, but the banks have the responsibility for designing and running the risk management infrastructure. By looking across a broad range of world class financial institutions, we have a good sense of the evolving frontier of best...
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Further details including transcripts of the oral evidence sessions are available on the Committee’s website. As set out most recently by Andrew Bailey in his 2020 Jackson Hole speech and accompanying paper. The supporting paper for Andrew Bailey’s Jackson Hole speech, mentioned above, gives a good overview of the evid...
Tarisa Watanagase: Prospects and challenges for the Thai economy in 2010 Dinner talk by Dr Tarisa Watanagase, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the British Chamber of Commerce, Bangkok, 30 November 2009. * * * Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, First of all, I would like to thank the British Chamber of C...
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Fernando Restoy: European banking sector – situation and challenges Speech by Mr Fernando Restoy, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Spain, based on the address delivered at the UIMP seminar “¿Qué hemos aprendido de la crisis?” (“What have we learned from the crisis?”), organised by the APIE (Association of Economics Journ...
The existence of more banks with a pan-European outlook would amount to a private national risk pooling mechanism that would help weaken the link between the macroeconomic risks existing in each country and the stability of its banking system, adding robustness to the monetary and banking union. It is therefore importa...
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In such a situation the EU member states have a “common interest” in discussing how confidence in economic policy can be enhanced. During the spring there has been a discussion in Sweden about the exchange rate tendency in connection with the move to Stage Three of EMU. What will happen if, for instance, companies adop...
And, where there are coordination issues we will stand ready to assist the market in solving them. What we are asking from you is to engage with the Working Group. As I’ve already said, we are under no illusions that transition will be easy. That is why it is so important that you help identify the challenges and oppor...
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Banks have liabilities to one another due to loans and securities trading, or BIS Review 58/2003 1 because they participate in the payment system. Contagion effects can also arise if other economic players suspect that there are connections between the banks. Banks can then encounter difficulties, even if the origin...
The banks and the card industry can help by intensifying their efforts to protect customers against unauthorised transactions. One element of this may be to accelerate the phase-out of magnetic strips and replace them with chips or similar technology. The requirement that all card terminals and ATMs should use chips is...
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If the uncertainty applies to the long-term inflation expectations or to the lower bound of the policy rate, one should act more aggressively. There is thus an on the one hand case where one should act less aggressively and an on the other hand case when one should act more aggressively. In other words, when it comes t...
The latter approach is called “certainty equivalence” in academic research and is a good policy only under fairly restrictive assumptions of how the economy functions. It is therefore probably less useful as guidance in policy-making. Moreover, the central banks’ actual behaviour and communication indicate that uncerta...
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The dilution of investment yields has reinforced risks for the industry such as a serious lapse risk if interest rates were to rise abruptly, financial losses for insurers who guarantee high technical rates compared to financial returns, or risks related to insufficient cost coverage. Among this quick review of the mos...
Regarding the International Capital Standard, which aims to develop an international capital standard in order to be able to establish a comparable basis in terms of prudential requirements for all international groups, recent progress was made in Kuala Lumpur in November 2017 which should lead to, by the end of 2019, ...
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In the Annales, he wrote: “The destruction of private wealth precipitated the fall of rank and reputation. At last, the emperor interposed his aid by distributing throughout the banks a hundred million sesterces, and allowing freedom to borrow without interest for three years, provided the borrower gave security to the...
Federal and State funding of subsidized higher education is heavily reliant on tax revenues and competes with other forms of public spending, and within education budgets competes with pre-school, elementary and secondary education spending. During the recession we saw severe revenue declines at the federal and state l...
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The system’s rules and procedures should enable participants to have a clear understanding of the system’s impact on each of the financial risks they incur though participation in it. VII. The system should ensure a high degree of security and operational reliability and should have contingency arrangements for timely ...
While there are around 15 million unemployed workers, there are also around 9 million workers who are working part time for economic reasons (as opposed to their own choice), and around 1.3 million “discouraged” workers who want a job but who are not currently actively looking for work – and therefore are not counted a...
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The last turmoil in the global and domestic financial markets has been a concrete proof of this fact. Thus, the dedollarization is not a straightforward process. As a clear evidence of this, the findings of Reinhart and her friends 13 show that only two countries, Israel and Poland, out of a total of 85 countries manag...
Coordination problems arise because there are incentives for countries to free-ride or to undercut one another. [31] In these instances, deeper modes of cooperation are essential to align countries’ interests. The EU has thus far employed two methods of governance to facilitate cooperation. In some cases, we have inves...
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Chart 1 Tariffs and Global Value Chain Participation2 (Value added weighted average over countries and sectors percent) 50 6 5.5 45 5 4.5 40 4 35 3.5 3 30 2.5 Average GVC participation 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 2 ...
GDP growth and GDP components contributions (p.p.)
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Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Extending the boundaries in the new financial landscape Speech by Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the 10th Malaysian Banking, Finance & Insurance Summit: "Liberalisation and Consolidation of Malaysian Banking & Finance Sector: Enhancing Competitiveness & Resilience of...
The Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) remains the key monetary policy communication tool of the central bank to provide the rationale for monetary policy decisions. Given the pronounced changes in the economy and the significant changes taking place in the financial sector, the industry would essentially need to respond ...
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For instance, in some countries the central bank is responsible for bank supervision, while in others this is the task of a special financial supervisory 4 BIS Review 24/2003 authority. Countries also differ with respect to the private sector's involvement in fulfilling certain objectives. In some countries the priv...
That said, much work still lies ahead to stimulate new intermediation mechanisms in order to diversify the funding of the economy when a single channel, such as the banking system, cannot adequately satisfy demand. The financing of small and medium-sized firms in the euro area is a case in point. In this regard, our ne...
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It is time for the industry to come together and make a more significant impact through wellplanned investments in product design, risk management and to support consumer education in retirement planning solutions. Third, catastrophic events in Asia Pacific is rising. The region is also confronted by an increasing freq...
Strategies to seize opportunities in the new horizon Allow me now to turn to some of the key strategic imperatives for the industry going forward. 2 BIS central bankers’ speeches First and foremost is the building of strategic and quality human capital. Human capital can be likened to the indispensable crew that you ...
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From April they should be able to start buying assets from banks, including foreclosed assets and NPLs which have completed court process and awaiting receivership. This should help to further speed up NPL reduction. Ladies and gentlemen, Let me now turn to the main topic of my talk today, the role and responsibility o...
Tenth, and final point, the success of the bank depends not only on strategy and policy direction set by the Board, but also on the capability of senior management to take on those policies and implement them. Thus, the Board must give high priority to recruiting and retaining quality senior management, including work ...
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However, not least because of experiences in recent history, it is widely acknowledged that the stabilisation of aggregate demand through changes in public spending is not an easy task. Preferably, policy makers should refrain from fine-tuning, not least against the backdrop of inside and outside lags that distort the ...
BIS central bankers’ speeches 13 The Bank’s Monetary Policy Report also presents alternative scenarios for the Norwegian economy. If developments are broadly in line with expectations, economic agents can expect that the interest rate will be set in line with that projected by Norges Bank. If conditions change, as wa...
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In 1990, shortly after the fall of communism, I became Governor of the National Bank of Romania, having to put into practice the transition from a monobank-type system to a two-tier system, while the country’s economy was going through major changes from the ruinous central planning to a market economy. As a matter of ...
The key questions here are related to amount and velocity -- that is, (1) how would digital bills or notes, or digital coins, be represented on the books of a bank or depository institution; and (2) how many times would this electronic coin or bill circulate in the general economy without somehow being processed and re...
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As a result, an inflationary bias may be generated. This inflationary bias is ultimately anticipated and incorporated into agents’ expectations, and, therefore, into price-setting and wage bargaining. The upshot is higher inflation without hardly improving the level of output and employment in the economy. This means m...
– https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2019/html/ecb.sp191112_1~f304b47e14.en.html 3/9 Mechanism (SSM) in 2014, the Banco de España’s supervisory role was integrated into a new institutional framework with the European Central Bank at its core. I will come back to this function later on. Some lessons on central b...
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Hughes, P and White, E (2010), ’The Space Shuttle Challenger disaster: A classic example of Groupthink’, Ethics & Critical Thinking Journal, Vol. 2010, Issue 3, pp. 63. Iaryczower, M, Lewis, G and Shum, M (2013) ‘To elect or to appoint? bias, information, and responsiveness of bureaucrats and politicians’. Journal of P...
This responsibility rests with the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) at the Bank, specifically its Board. The PRA Board also comprises both Bank insiders and outsiders. 40 So in a nutshell, for the first 300 years of its history the Bank of England operated as an agent of government. In the subsequent 20 years, its...
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As I have mentioned earlier while talking about global risks, forecasts for our largest trade partner, the European Union, suggest that it would take a long time for foreign demand to return to pre-crisis levels. 4 BIS Review 79/2010 Industrial production has been increasing moderately since March 2009. According to ...
In their meeting in Busan earlier this month, Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors of the G20 have “acknowledged a need for national, regional and multilateral efforts to deal with capital volatility”. A Financial Safety Net Experts Group has been set up to work on the issue. The reform of financial regulation ...
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Figure 4 Price of electricity (annual change, percent) 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Source: National Statistics Institute (INE). 8 BIS central bankers’ speeches Figure 5 Output growth (quarterly change, percent) Chile (*) World 8 8 ...
It’s easy to think of the Fed as just setting interest rates, and of course that’s a major part of what we do. But we do so in order to achieve two goals set by Congress: maximum employment and price stability. In Fed-speak it’s called the dual mandate. There are serious debates taking place amongst economists and poli...
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The loans were often sold on to other financial institutions packaged together with other assets, until it was finally difficult to know which financial institutions were exposed to the impaired loans. When the uncertainty spread, it had unexpectedly large effects and repercussions on the entire world economy. Financia...
See Söderberg (2018) for a description of the development of means of payment. 2 [25] rates, where a small number of central banks in practice conducted monetary policy for the entire world and thus ‘lent’ their credibility. 2 In Sweden, this system of fixed exchange rates did not function so well and this led to seve...
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In our forthcoming report for 2021, which will be published in the next few weeks, we have sought to build on last year’s content to provide additional context and analysis. In March last year, I outlined our intention to assess ways that our holdings of corporate bonds could be adjusted to take the climate impact of i...
EBRD’s involvement in two very important initiatives, namely the Local Currency and Local Capital Market Initiative and the Vienna Initiative, has been essential for Romania and the region. I am closely following the evolution of the EBRD. I believe that it finds itself at a cross-road, as the world has been changing r...
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The euro area has also shown some improvement recently, with positive growth rates in some countries as early as in the second quarter. The latest figures suggest that economic activity may be expected to show positive growth rates across the area in the third quarter. That said, the upcoming recovery will be slow, mea...
Yet although the decline in residential demand has been very abrupt, lower interest rates and the fall in house prices have placed affordability indicators at more moderate levels, which is helping to stabilise real estate purchases in recent months. In the case of lending to the private sector, we have witnessed incre...
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Goodhart, C (2010), “How should we regulate the financial sector?”, Future of Finance and the Theory That Underpins It. Haldane, A G (2009), Small Lessons from a Big Crisis, available at http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/speeches/2009/speech397.pdf Haldane, A G (2010), The $ Billion Question, available at htt...
In associated guidelines, a number of such services are identified including:  Taking, managing and transferring deposits;  Providing flexible payment mechanisms such as debit cards;  Making loans or other investments; and  Offering financial advice or other business services. FISIM is estimated for loans an...
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On this run of history, the global flow of funds could become an increasingly powerful generator of global financial instabilities. In that event, pressures could mount on policymakers to protect against the rising tide of capital flow-induced instability, including through capital restrictions and macro-prudential mea...
A reduction in those capital market frictions would tend to lower the asset market spillover costs of the BFSP problem.  Finally, what guideposts should be provided by the international community in tackling the BFSP problem? The IMF recently began to explore such a framework (IMF (2011)). This raises a set of key qu...
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Hall has pointed out that a tighter household borrowing constraint can help explain the depth and persistence of the most recent recession in the U.S.2 Mian and Sufi observe that unemployment is much higher in counties across the U.S. where households were more debt constrained by the fall in the price of housing.3 The...
Clearly, these losses generally produce second-round effects, mainly through reputational damage that tends to affect the financial sector as a whole, rather than individual institutions. As is currently the case, these losses tend to rise, precisely, in the aftermath of crises, where some of the questionable commercia...
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Eddie Yue: Investment in infrastructure is crucial to Asia’s growth Statement by Mr Eddie Yue, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Head of the Delegation of Hong Kong, for the 46th Asian Development Bank Annual Meeting, Delhi, 4 May 2013. * * * I would like to thank the Government of India...
Factors like certainty in government’s sector development plan, clarity in publicprivate partnership (PPP) framework, conducive legal, regulatory and institutional environment, and capacity to develop and implement projects are key to attracting private sector investors. ADB has an important role to play in capacity bu...
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Lars Heikensten: Challenges for the Swedish fixed income market Speech by Mr Lars Heikensten, First Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at the RäntEvent, Modern Museum, Stockholm, 8 May 2001. * * * The Swedish fixed income market has undergone a fantastic development over the past 20 years. This refers to both...
This reasonably entails the costs of doing business of the same size being higher and the relationships between players being closer. This carries a risk, particularly in times of uncertainty, of affecting the functioning of the market. The inclination to take on risks then declines and with few players and problems wi...
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If we want our children to have peace, I am calling on all of you to act too.
When shocks to money demand are large, expressing the stance of monetary policy in terms of an interest rate – in other words, as a price rather than as a quantity – can help to insulate the wider economy and price developments from the volatility that those demand shocks induce in monetary quantities. This insight had...
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Warwick Economics Summit – 4 February 2022 Twenty years later… and twenty years ahead Speech by François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France Press contact: Mark Deen (mark.deen@banque-france.fr) Page 1 sur 9 Ladies and Gentlemen, I am delighted to be with you today, though I would have preferred to ...
We nevertheless have reasons to cheer: in 2021 around EUR 100 billion were invested in the European technology ecosystem, almost three times the previous record of 2020, with around 100 new unicornsi. Furthermore, although technologies have not yet shown their full potential in terms of productivity, we may be at a tur...
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Svante Öberg: The financial crisis and wage formation Speech by Mr Svante Öberg, First Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at the National Mediation Office, Stockholm, 29 January 2010. * * * Why is the Riksbank interested in wage formation? Wage formation and monetary policy are interrelated. The development of w...
4/7 In any event, the improvement in the Spanish banking system has allowed it to support the economic recovery and job creation seen in recent years through a more efficient allocation of credit to businesses and industries. The paradigm shift in bank resolution This transformation of the Spanish financial sector has...
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I think it is helpful to recall why so many central banks, regulatory agencies, and commercial banks have devoted their best resources to ensuring the success of the New Accord. The existing Accord, as you know, was already considered a milestone in banking regulation. It offered the first internationally accepted “yar...
Some have argued that output gaps and prices retain their historical association if the right measure of “output gap” is compared to prices that are responsive to it. But then, what is a “correct measure” of the output gap, given that this is a not directly observable variable? In recent months, the Fed has been unders...
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But even for that it has been decided not to give details of the voting. Q: To avoid the vote being interpreted in terms of the country of origin of each Council member? A: Personally, I would be in favour of publishing all the details, since governors are independent and should vote in the interest of the euro area, b...
So, the only way to ensure debt sustainability is to raise productivity, invest and increase the employment rate, and this implies structural reforms. Q: None of these factors are present. There is hardly any growth, investment or jobs. A: I am aware that the situation is still very difficult in Spain and that the Span...
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Another example is the Netherlands which, like Sweden, is normally characterised as a small, open economy. Even there, worrying signals similar to those in the Swedish and American economies can be perceived. The improved economic activity has led to falling unemployment and rising asset prices. During the last two yea...
An increase in the repo rate would in this case contribute both to counteracting incipient inflation tendencies and to reducing the risk of financial imbalances, through a dampening effect on demand for credit and on asset prices. 5 BIS Review 50/2000
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It is clear that richer economies and stable societies tend to have stronger and more stable institutions. It is, therefore, my belief that our region should not subscribe to an ‘organic model’ of institutional growth. By ‘organic’, I mean a growth model where institutions catch up to economic development, and tend mor...
Gent Sejko: Future Balkans - towards a global inclusion Speech by Mr Gent Sejko, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the Tirana Economic Forum "Future Balkans: Towards a global inclusion" Leadership, Institutions and Policies Convergence 2017-2020, Tirana, 24 January 2018. * * * Your Excellency Mr President, Your Exce...
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Some may not adequately address recent changes in the global economy—such as the rise of digital trade—and may need to be refreshed. And, important trade barriers still remain that should be addressed. In particular, from a U.S. perspective, the access of U.S. firms to some foreign markets and the protection of intelle...
But, at a broader level, the momentum behind global trade reform has clearly waned in recent years. This has occurred even though there are a number of areas that would benefit from further reform, such as agriculture and services. That momentum needs to be rekindled and reaffirmed. Although advanced economies historic...
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9 All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches 9 The results show that the highly indebted tail has become a little smaller over since 2015. At the same time, the average debt level of the mass of the distribution has increased (Chart 3). If we draw on the literature on the links betwee...
0 100 200 300 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 400 Household debt to income in 2007, per cent Sources: Flodén, M (2014) and OECD National Accounts. (a) Change in consumption is adjusted for the pre-crisis change in total debt, the level of total debt and the current account balance. See Flodén, M (2014), ‘Did househo...
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The list goes on. Yet, based on a recent survey report by GlobeScan, only one third of the private sector 2/5 BIS central bankers' speeches respondents reflected on SDGs in setting long-term sustainability strategies for their organisations. This should concern us. In 2015, 15 years after the Millennium Development G...
This Forum seeks to address not just the question of facilitating transfers more efficiently, but how to make such transfers go further and do more to meet today’s most pressing global challenges – from access to healthcare and education, equal economic opportunity for all, to protection of the environment. Without add...
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In fact, if the – basically fiscal – measures implemented by governments are sufficiently successful the role of regulators and supervisors should largely be to ensure that financial institutions properly incorporate the impact of such measures into their risk analysis. That said, many of the models used by institution...
Thank you very much for your attention. 8
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Particular attention should be paid to abrupt repricing moves in risky asset prices, in the wake of rising interest rates. This situation could put some non-bank financial actors in difficulty, especially the ones using leverage, as illustrated by the Archegos’ default at the end of March 2021. Likewise, given the role...
By way of conclusion, let me say that there is currently no shortage of challenges. However, the reforms introduced in the regulation and the efforts made by banks to enhance their resilience over the last decade have borne fruits and the European banking system has demonstrated with the Covid crisis not only its abili...
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The ECB is purchasing bonds in the market to stimulate activity and boost inflation, but has now begun to reduce the pace of its purchases. The policy rate in Sweden is also negative, with the latest reduction made in February 2016. The Swedish 1/4 BIS central bankers' speeches Riksbank’s forecast indicates that the ...
Øystein Olsen: The conduct of monetary policy Introductory statement by Mr Øystein Olsen, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), before the Standing Committee on Finance and Economic Affairs of the Storting (Norwegian parliament), Oslo, 15 May 2017. * * * Accompanying slides Thank you for the opportunity to ...
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It is crucial for long-term financial stability that those who make long-run debt commitments are fully aware of this reality and that they plan accordingly. What about inflation risk? Personally, I do not share the view that the current period of central bank activism will be followed by a resurgence of inflation. Fir...
“The financial market impact of quantitative easing.” Bank of England Working Paper No. 393. July 2010, revised August 2010. Krogstrup, Signe. 2012. “The effects of the SNB’s liquidity expansion on asset prices at the zero lower bound.” SNB Internal Note. February 2012. Krogstrup, Signe, Samuel Reynard and Barbara Sutt...
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The crisis and response Of course these are anything but normal times. The financial crisis that broke in mid-2007 and intensified dramatically following the failure of Lehman Brothers has been among the most virulent ever. And it was followed by the longest and one of the deepest recessions since World War II, called ...
Since June 2009, economic activity has grown – but not robustly. 2 BIS Review 141/2010 In recent months, the momentum has slowed. After rising at a 3.25 percent annual rate during the second half of 2009, real gross domestic product growth has slowed. With demand growth barely keeping pace with firms’ ability to incr...
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I hope you will see from our response to the TSC that we at the PRA – right up to and including the Prudential Regulation Committee – have been putting a lot of effort into this package of reforms, which are needed in order to make Solvency II work better in the UK. But we haven’t done this in a regulatory ivory tower....
Many of its customers, aged 75 and over, had invested their life savings into these products but were left with significantly reduced retirement income. Ten years later, the Government agreed to pay compensation amounting to £ billion. But many policyholders and their families suffered over the decade when their fate r...
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But we certainly asked ourselves whether that would be all the stronger because of the liquid nature of this extra wealth. Asking the question is one thing, answering it accurately another. It’s obviously possible that we got that judgement wrong and under-estimated the significance of these extra deposits. However, in...
For example, while it may capture some important aspects of how asset purchases work it’s not really an accurate representation of how the conventional policy rate is set. That’s fine for today, as I’m focusing more on QE. But one should at least be aware that the monetary authority needn’t vary the supply of reserves ...
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Norges Bank considers it important, therefore, that payment services are organised in a way that enables the market to find efficient solutions for production and use of such services. In this presentation, I will focus on retail payment systems. BIS Review 66/2002 1 Criteria for assessing efficiency We place emphasi...
In Norway, the Banks' Standardisation Office establishes the standards for payment services. The Banks' Payment and Central Clearing House (BBS) and EDB Fellesdata produce most of the payment services in Norway. In some areas, the two companies produce different kinds of services, while in other areas, they compete in ...
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This may affect the formation of monetary policy. The risk of conflicts between the inflation target and the need for exchange rate stability is sometimes emphasised in discussions. For several reasons I do not believe we need to be particularly concerned about that. For one thing, ERM2 participation is not an ordinary...
6 BIS Review 65/2002 If Sweden joins ERM2, the responsibility for maintaining economic balance rests essentially with the Government and the Riksdag. In the event of a referendum next autumn resulting in a majority for Swedish entry into the EMU, followed by entry to ERM2, the fiscal policy that is already being esta...
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Modeling socalled pre-provision net revenue (PPNR) was one of the innovations introduced in the SCAP and represented one of the key challenges in that exercise – and, I will argue, is a continuing challenge today. Given the choice to model net income and regulatory capital ratios, another set of design choices concerns...
Jean-Pierre Danthine: Calmer waters after the storm? Speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Danthine, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Money Market Event, Zurich, 18 March 2010. * I. * * Looking back We are emerging from a financial and economic crisis of major proportions. The extent of value dest...
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At the same time as monetary policy is aimed at attaining the inflation target, it is also supposed to “support the objectives of general economic policy for the purpose of attaining sustainable growth and a high level of employment”. The Riksbank does this by not merely striving to stabilise inflation around the infla...
But if we look ahead, it is likely that the picture will be further complicated by the changes that will follow in the wake of the financial crisis. What I am mainly thinking about here is the increased focus on macroprudential policies. After the financial crisis we have learnt two main lessons. The first is that the ...
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The Riksbank has therefore on three different occasions (in July, September and October) BIS Review 160/2009 5 offered loans of up to SEK 100 billion with a maturity of almost one year and at a fixed interest rate, to contribute to bringing down the interest rates households and companies have to pay. On the first t...
For the Swiss mortgage market, there is currently only a small risk of a credit crunch. On the one hand, there have been no widespread excesses on the Swiss property and mortgage markets recently, which makes it unlikely that banks’ appetite for risk will decline to any great degree. On the other hand, opportunities fo...
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Combined with the growth differential the Spanish economy still enjoys, this has allowed Spanish institutions to negotiate the difficulties thrown up last year with a limited impact on their earnings, and this despite the difficulties in Latin American markets. In turn, historically low default levels in the domestic m...
The consolidated entity is expected to deliver a range of benefits, including:    Strategic leadership that is forward looking and proactive, with an enhanced ability to identify the challenges and risks of tomorrow and prepare for them today; Higher standards of governance and risk management, with an improved ab...
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Ladies and Gentlemen, The financial sector in our region has now reached a new stage of development. Over the years, the role of the financial system has evolved, facilitating the various stages of development and growth. Increasingly, the financial services industry is also becoming a source of growth, especially as s...
Binghamton, on the other hand, has really been struggling with no signs yet of any meaningful recovery. Meanwhile, Northern New Jersey’s economy had been growing fairly steadily until this past winter when activity softened, probably due at least in part to the unusually harsh weather. Now that spring is finally upon u...
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In 2008, the Bank of Zambia issued banking licences to 5 new banks to operate in Zambia. As at 31 May 2011, Institutions under Bank of Zambia supervision as at 31 May 2011 were:  18 commercial banks,  10 leasing finance companies,  3 building societies,  51 bureaux de change,  1 savings and credit bank, ...
In this sense, I am convinced that in order to deliver a successful roadmap for the potential issuance of a digital euro, we must establish a certain set of priorities upfront. Allow me to be a bit more precise in this respect. To start with, I believe we should deepen the current standing of our work. This means not j...
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Another approach involves discussing and developing proposals for regulatory floors of different kinds, for example risk-weight floors like the one we have for mortgages in Sweden today or floors that cover the total capital requirement that is also in place today. Finally, it is a 4 BIS central bankers’ speeches qu...
This means that downside risks for household income and debt- 2 BIS Review 75/2010 servicing capacity are likely to persist and that banks could face losses for some time, although there are important differences across countries. However, on a more positive note, there are signs that the past sharp falls in house p...
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