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By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated? Microsoft Research Lab Asia (MSR Asia), is the division of Microsoft Research based in China and focuses its research on artificial intelligence, computer vision, and other critical technologies. In June 2023, ... | 0.07 | Inferpub |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
The chief of Myanmar's military junta, Min Aung Hlaing, declared that the country would hold elections by August 2023 as part of a broader pledge to restore democracy in the country (Deutsche Welle). However, the junta extended the state of emergency for six mon... | 0.05 | Inferpub |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
In 2020, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco signed agreements establishing diplomatic relations with Israel (Foreign Policy, Brookings, Al Jazeera). Recent conversa... | 0.01 | Inferpub |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? In October 2022, Michel Aoun completed his term as president of Lebanon, but the Lebanese parliament has yet to appoint his successor (PBS). Internal tensions between pro-Iranian and pro-Saudi/U.S. factions have left the parliament unable to elect a... | 0.08 | Inferpub |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days? On 24 November 2023, a four-day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas began (AP News). This deal was later extended until 1 December 2023 (BBC, Jerusalem Post).
On 19 June 2008, Israe... | 0.6 | Inferpub |
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months? Houthi rebels in Yemen have launched multiple drone and missile attacks against Israel since the war between Israel and Hamas began on 7 October 2023 (Reuters). Recent statements by the leader of the Houthi movements ... | 0.12 | Inferpub |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? Iran has faced significant social unrest in recent years, including 3 anti-government protests with at least 10,000 participants since 2019. Economic crisis in 2019... | 0.09 | Inferpub |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? In recent months, Israel and Saudi Arabia had been in talks to discuss a normalization agreement between the two countries (USIP). Following the outbreak of Israel's war with Hamas, Saudi Arabia ha... | 0.01 | Inferpub |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? The war between Israel and Hamas risks escalating into a wider regional conflict (NBC News, Vox). Militant groups in the region have already started launching rocket and drone attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria (AP ... | 0.01 | Inferpub |
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? The war between Israel and Hamas risks escalating into a wider regional conflict (NBC News, Vox). While Iran has denied involvement in Hamas' attack and stated that it does not want the war to spread, Iranian Foreign Mi... | 0.04 | Inferpub |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months? The internationally-recognized government of Yemen has been engaged in conflict with rebels from the Houthi movement since 2014 (CFR). The government of Yemen is supported by a Saudi-backed military... | 0.03 | Inferpub |
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