Datasets:

siddharthmb
/

2026.RA.Pure-Rounds-Sweep

@@ -29,22 +29,24 @@ campaign never varied — **the number of negotiation rounds before the forced f
 cost only CPU: `all_rational` (five copies of a Bayesian agent that maintains a posterior over hypotheses
 about each opponent's sheet) and `all_oracle` (five agents that are simply told every sheet).
-**The headline: more time buys nothing.** Deal rate across deadlines 4 → 64 reads 0.233 / 0.267 / 0.208 /
-0.208 / 0.250 and normalized score 0.195 / 0.230 / 0.182 / 0.178 / 0.207, with every instance-clustered
-interval overlapping every other. Rounds-to-agreement tracks the deadline almost exactly, so the agents use
 the whole horizon and finish where they started. The mechanism is in `belief_turns.csv.gz`: belief accuracy
-saturates by round 16, so extra rounds deliver no extra identification of opponents, and without
-identification there is nothing to concede to. The omniscient arm closes 1.000 of games at every deadline,
-confirming the horizon itself is not the constraint. Full analysis: **research note 0061** in the source repo.
 ## What is in here
 | file | rows | what it is |
 |---|---:|---|
-| `episodes.csv` | 1440 | one row per played negotiation: outcome, welfare, Gini, IR violations, rounds used, and per-episode belief scalars |
-| `belief_turns.csv.gz` | 81672 | **the novel instrumentation** — one row per (episode, believer seat, turn): `posterior_mass_true_type`, `expected_utility_rmse`, `accept_set_f1` |
-| `cells.csv` | 12 | per-cell aggregates with instance-clustered 95% intervals |
-| `episodes/<cell_id>.jsonl.gz` | 12 files | complete episode records — every turn, parsed action, and belief block |
 | `bank/` | 24 | the frozen instance bank, without which surplus columns cannot be recomputed |
 Key columns: `experiment_name` (append-safe grouping), `cell_id`, `arm`, `deadline_rounds`, `host`,
@@ -53,18 +55,26 @@ instance's feasible ceiling; a no-deal scores 0), `rounds_to_agreement`, `belief
 ### Reproducing the headline belief-accuracy numbers
-The belief-F1 figures quoted in research note 0061 (0.210 / 0.228 / 0.241 / 0.244 / 0.241 across r4-r64) are
-**`cells.csv.belief_auc_accept_set_f1`** — a per-episode time-average, then aggregated across episodes.
-Taking a flat mean of the `accept_set_f1` column in `belief_turns.csv.gz` instead gives
-0.207 / 0.225 / 0.239 / 0.243 / 0.240, about 0.003 lower at every deadline, because that weights turns
-equally rather than episodes and so over-weights long episodes. Both are defensible summaries of the same
-data and the saturation conclusion is identical under either; use `cells.csv` to match the published table.
 ## Experiment-name mapping
 | experiment_name | description |
 |---|---|
-| `pure-rounds-sweep-v1` | the 12 complete cells below — `all_oracle` at [4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256], `all_rational` at [4, 8, 16, 32, 64] — at 120 episodes each (24 frozen parameter sets × seeds 0–4), unanimity, private information. The grid is deliberately incomplete: `all_rational` at 128 and 256 rounds is a stated gap (see Provenance). |
 | cell | arm | deadline | episodes | host | deal rate | score |
 |---|---|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|
@@ -80,6 +90,7 @@ data and the saturation conclusion is identical under either; use `cells.csv` to
 | `all_rational_r16` | all_rational | 16 | 120 | jagupard34 | 0.208 | 0.182 |
 | `all_rational_r32` | all_rational | 32 | 120 | jagupard34 | 0.208 | 0.178 |
 | `all_rational_r64` | all_rational | 64 | 120 | iliad1 | 0.250 | 0.207 |
 ## Two caveats that change how these numbers read
@@ -109,17 +120,26 @@ uv run python experiments/rational_agents/upload_hf_publication.py --folder /tmp
 ## Provenance
-- **W&B sweep:** https://wandb.ai/siddharth-stanford/rational_agents/sweeps/ufrdew0j (a real `method: grid` sweep over arm × rounds; one run per cell)
 - **Cluster artifacts:** `/nlp/scr/siddharth/ii_mats/rational_agents/pure_rounds_sweep_v1/` — per-cell run
   directories in the ordinary schema, per-cell records under `control/cells/`, manifest at
-  `control/campaign_manifest.json` (status `partial-final-12`)
 - **Slurm logs:** `/juice2/u/siddharth/ii_mats/logs/rounds_sweep/<jobid>.out`, first line of each is the exact
   invocation
 - **Bank:** `experiments/rational_agents/instances_five_seat_private_v2`, manifest SHA-256
   `cd32ebdef8072da3…`
-- **Known gap:** `all_rational_r128` and `all_rational_r256` are absent — r256 lost every shard to a cluster
-  preemption and r128 was still refilling at publication time. They will be appended under the same
-  `experiment_name` when they land.
 ## Related

 cost only CPU: `all_rational` (five copies of a Bayesian agent that maintains a posterior over hypotheses
 about each opponent's sheet) and `all_oracle` (five agents that are simply told every sheet).
+**The headline: more time buys nothing.** Deal rate across `all_rational` deadlines 4 → 128 ([4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128])
+reads 0.233 / 0.267 / 0.208 / 0.208 / 0.250 / 0.242 and normalized score 0.195 / 0.230 / 0.182 / 0.178 / 0.207 / 0.203, with
+every instance-clustered interval overlapping every other. Rounds-to-agreement tracks the deadline almost
+exactly (4.96 / 8.97 / 17.00 / 32.96 / 64.97 / 128.97 against forced finals one round later), so the agents use
 the whole horizon and finish where they started. The mechanism is in `belief_turns.csv.gz`: belief accuracy
+**peaks at turn 5–6 and then drifts slowly downward** for the rest of whatever horizon it is given, so extra
+rounds deliver no extra identification of opponents, and without identification there is nothing to concede
+to. The omniscient arm closes 1.000 of games at every deadline, confirming the horizon itself is not the
+constraint. Full analysis: **research note 0061** in the source repo.
 ## What is in here
 | file | rows | what it is |
 |---|---:|---|
+| `episodes.csv` | 1560 | one row per played negotiation: outcome, welfare, Gini, IR violations, rounds used, and per-episode belief scalars |
+| `belief_turns.csv.gz` | 159015 | **the novel instrumentation** — one row per (episode, believer seat, turn): `posterior_mass_true_type`, `expected_utility_rmse`, `accept_set_f1` |
+| `cells.csv` | 13 | per-cell aggregates with instance-clustered 95% intervals |
+| `episodes/<cell_id>.jsonl.gz` | 13 files | complete episode records — every turn, parsed action, and belief block |
 | `bank/` | 24 | the frozen instance bank, without which surplus columns cannot be recomputed |
 Key columns: `experiment_name` (append-safe grouping), `cell_id`, `arm`, `deadline_rounds`, `host`,
 ### Reproducing the headline belief-accuracy numbers
+The belief-F1 figures quoted in research note 0061 (0.210 / 0.228 / 0.241 / 0.244 / 0.241 / 0.235 across
+`all_rational` deadlines [4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128]) are **`cells.csv.belief_auc_accept_set_f1`** — a per-episode
+time-average, then aggregated across episodes. Taking a flat mean of the `accept_set_f1` column in
+`belief_turns.csv.gz` instead runs about 0.003 lower at every deadline, because that weights turns equally
+rather than episodes and so over-weights long episodes. Both are defensible summaries of the same data; use
+`cells.csv` to match the published table.
+**Read that column as a time-average, not as "how much this cell learned".** The per-turn curve in
+`belief_turns.csv.gz` peaks at turn 5–6 at the same value (~0.252) in every cell from 32 rounds up, then
+drifts down for the rest of the horizon — at 128 rounds it falls monotonically across the whole game,
+0.243 → 0.226 in eight blocks, ending 0.024 below its peak. A longer cell therefore averages in more of the
+decayed tail and posts a *lower* number (r128's 0.235 against r32's 0.244) while having learned exactly as
+much, exactly as fast. The decay is not a composition artifact: 119 of the 120 r128 episodes contribute all
+129 turns.
 ## Experiment-name mapping
 | experiment_name | description |
 |---|---|
+| `pure-rounds-sweep-v1` | the 13 complete cells below — `all_oracle` at [4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256], `all_rational` at [4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128] — at 120 episodes each (24 frozen parameter sets × seeds 0–4), unanimity, private information. The grid is deliberately incomplete: `all_rational` at [256] rounds is absent (see Provenance). |
 | cell | arm | deadline | episodes | host | deal rate | score |
 |---|---|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|
 | `all_rational_r16` | all_rational | 16 | 120 | jagupard34 | 0.208 | 0.182 |
 | `all_rational_r32` | all_rational | 32 | 120 | jagupard34 | 0.208 | 0.178 |
 | `all_rational_r64` | all_rational | 64 | 120 | iliad1 | 0.250 | 0.207 |
+| `all_rational_r128` | all_rational | 128 | 120 | john13 | 0.242 | 0.203 |
 ## Two caveats that change how these numbers read
 ## Provenance
+- **W&B sweeps** (a real `method: grid` sweep over arm × rounds, one run per cell, plus the fill passes — a
+  killed sweep run never releases its grid point, so a refilled cell appears under its own sweep id):
+  - https://wandb.ai/siddharth-stanford/rational_agents/sweeps/ufrdew0j — the original arm x rounds grid sweep — 12 cells
+  - https://wandb.ai/siddharth-stanford/rational_agents/sweeps/l1f1larz — fill pass for all_rational at 128 rounds — the 13th cell
+  - https://wandb.ai/siddharth-stanford/rational_agents/sweeps/txi1tje1 — fill pass for all_rational at 256 rounds — cancelled, produced no cell
 - **Cluster artifacts:** `/nlp/scr/siddharth/ii_mats/rational_agents/pure_rounds_sweep_v1/` — per-cell run
   directories in the ordinary schema, per-cell records under `control/cells/`, manifest at
+  `control/campaign_manifest.json` (status `partial-final-13`)
 - **Slurm logs:** `/juice2/u/siddharth/ii_mats/logs/rounds_sweep/<jobid>.out`, first line of each is the exact
   invocation
 - **Bank:** `experiments/rational_agents/instances_five_seat_private_v2`, manifest SHA-256
   `cd32ebdef8072da3…`
+- **Known gap, permanent:** `all_rational_r256` is absent and **will not be run**. Its cost is superlinear in
+  the deadline for an engine reason, not a solver one: the runner re-serializes the entire growing episode
+  record once per wave, so a single r256 record reaches ~0.9 GB (against ~0.18 GB at r128) and each shard
+  worker holds 16–17 GB resident. Sixteen concurrent shards then exceed the job's 64 GB cgroup and are
+  OOM-killed. The fill reached 64 of 120 episodes in 98 hours (0.65 episodes/h against r128's 7.86, a 12×
+  slowdown) with 12 of 16 workers already dead, and was cancelled on 2026-08-24. Nothing rests on it: the
+  horizon null is flat over five octaves (4 → 128) and belief accuracy has peaked and begun decaying by turn
+  6, so r256 would be confirmatory only. Re-running it needs the engine fix first, not more wall clock.
 ## Related

artifact_manifest.json CHANGED Viewed

@@ -4,12 +4,12 @@
  "dataset_repo": "siddharthmb/2026.RA.Pure-Rounds-Sweep",
  "wandb_sweep": "https://wandb.ai/siddharth-stanford/rational_agents/sweeps/ufrdew0j",
  "research_note": "experiments/rational_agents/research-notes/0061-pure-arm-rounds-sweep.md",
- "campaign_status": "partial-final-12",
  "reproducibility_inputs": {
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@@ -119,17 +119,10 @@
    4
   ],
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-   "all_rational",
-   "all_oracle"
   ],
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-   8,
-   16,
-   32,
-   64,
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@@ -141,8 +134,8 @@
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@@ -255,13 +248,22 @@
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@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
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@@ -205,9 +198,9 @@
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+    "episode_seconds": {
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+     "total": 3597047.199680942,
+     "mean": 29975.393330674517,
+     "max": 54709.050314077176,
+     "n_timeout": 0
+    }
+   },
+   "wandb_url": "https://wandb.ai/siddharth-stanford/rational_agents/runs/gzagszto",
+   "wandb_run_id": "gzagszto"
+  },
   {
    "cell_id": "all_rational_r16",
    "logical_table": "all_rational",
    "wandb_run_id": "yqi0f21u"
   }
  ],
+ "sweeps": [
+  {
+   "sweep_id": "siddharth-stanford/rational_agents/ufrdew0j",
+   "sweep_url": "https://wandb.ai/siddharth-stanford/rational_agents/sweeps/ufrdew0j",
+   "role": "original grid sweep (arm x rounds); produced the 12 cells of note 0061's published tables"
   },
+  {
+   "sweep_id": "siddharth-stanford/rational_agents/l1f1larz",
+   "sweep_url": "https://wandb.ai/siddharth-stanford/rational_agents/sweeps/l1f1larz",
+   "role": "fill pass for all_rational_r128; produced the 13th cell (run gzagszto, john13, 2026-08-21)"
+  },
+  {
+   "sweep_id": "siddharth-stanford/rational_agents/txi1tje1",
+   "sweep_url": "https://wandb.ai/siddharth-stanford/rational_agents/sweeps/txi1tje1",
+   "role": "fill pass for all_rational_r256; CANCELLED 2026-08-24 without producing a cell (see gaps)"
   }
+ ],
+ "gaps": [
+  {
+   "cell_id": "all_rational_r256",
+   "disposition": "permanent stated gap — will not be run",
+   "decided": "2026-08-24",
+   "decided_by": "[experiment: rational more turns sweep] wrap-up lane",
+   "evidence": {
+    "fill_job": 16925334,
+    "fill_sweep": "siddharth-stanford/rational_agents/txi1tje1",
+    "fill_log": "/juice2/u/siddharth/ii_mats/logs/rounds_sweep/16925334.out",
+    "node": "john3",
+    "elapsed": "4-02:18:28 (98.3 h) before scancel",
+    "episodes_done": 64,
+    "episodes_expected": 120,
+    "rate_episodes_per_hour": 0.65,
+    "r128_rate_episodes_per_hour": 7.86,
+    "slowdown_vs_r128": "12x",
+    "shard_workers_alive_at_cancel": 2,
+    "shard_workers_of": 16,
+    "episode_record_bytes_median": "~0.8-0.9 GB at r256 vs ~0.18 GB at r128",
+    "shard_worker_rss": "16-17 GB each against a 64 GB job cgroup"
+   },
+   "reason": "Cost is superlinear in the deadline because the engine re-serializes the entire growing episode record on every wave (note 0061 caveat 4). At r256 a single record reaches ~0.9 GB and a shard worker holds 16-17 GB resident, so 16 concurrent shards exceed the 64 GB job cgroup and are OOM-killed: 12 of 16 workers were already dead at cancel time. The standing decision was to cap r256 if its rate came in much worse than 2x r128's; it came in 12x worse. Re-running it needs the engine fix (incremental save / stop recording rendered views for model-free seats) first, not more wall clock.",
+   "scientific_impact": "none — the horizon null is flat over six octaves (r4-r128) and belief accuracy saturates by r16, so r256 would be confirmatory only."
+  }
+ ],
+ "manifest_provenance": {
+  "note": "reproducibility_fingerprint and reproducibility_inputs describe the LAST pass that wrote this file (the r128 fill, arms=[all_rational] rounds=[128] via sweep l1f1larz), NOT the whole 14-cell grid. assemble_manifest() rebuilds them from the invoking flags on every pass. The per-cell records under cells/ are the authoritative per-cell provenance; see sweeps[] for the full set of contributing runs.",
+  "repaired": "2026-08-24 by the [experiment: rational more turns sweep] wrap-up lane: status, design.logical_arms, design.rounds_grid, sweeps[], gaps[]. The r128 fill pass had narrowed design to one arm at one deadline and reset status to 'incomplete' while leaving all 14 cell records intact.",
+  "anchor_gate": "The rounds=4 anchor certificate (cross-host mode) was lost in the same overwrite; its result is reproduced in note 0061 caveat 3 — all_rational_r4 7/120 episode flips on jagupard29, all_oracle_r4 0/120 on tiger7, both statistically indistinguishable from the frozen campaign. Regenerate with gate_rounds_sweep_anchor.py.",
+  "research_note": "experiments/rational_agents/research-notes/0061-pure-arm-rounds-sweep.md"
  }
+}

cells.csv CHANGED Viewed

@@ -11,3 +11,4 @@ pure-rounds-sweep-v1,all_rational_r8,all_rational,8,viscam1,120,31.2,0.229638333
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episodes.csv CHANGED Viewed

@@ -1439,3 +1439,123 @@ pure-rounds-sweep-v1,all_rational_r64,all_rational,64,iliad1,scorable_negotiatio
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