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results_new/correlation_comparison.csv

@@ -3,6 +3,8 @@ DiffAE lag-1 (blended),0.4509836398210509,0.09156012139132494,-0.082306783120257
 DiffAE lag-2 (blended),0.4255248859601851,0.11380100835183467,-0.15675655456203463,0.8470255585702305,15,"[-0.16, 0.85]"
 VAE lag-1 (blended),0.4364357804719848,0.10385510395975796,-0.06938106307033166,0.7790487408719494,15,"[-0.07, 0.78]"
 VAE lag-2 (blended),0.3600595188893874,0.18741406766247667,-0.2067294244964042,0.81380181951844,15,"[-0.21, 0.81]"
+TVAE lag-1 (blended),0.45825756949558405,0.08581470399442769,-0.07426181843342064,0.8029953766987926,15,"[-0.07, 0.80]"
+TVAE lag-2 (blended),0.38551827275025324,0.15585899037368892,-0.1715407510391921,0.8280001058131181,15,"[-0.17, 0.83]"
 Hamming H3N2 lag-1,0.007405376032788813,0.9791035961351728,-0.5507549288055146,0.5589298744299823,15,"[-0.55, 0.56]"
 Hamming H3N2 lag-2,0.033958905427861195,0.9043678210462518,-0.5201586903828396,0.579691735485091,15,"[-0.52, 0.58]"
 H1N1 co-circulation,0.13939393939393938,0.7009318849100584,-0.7583165363218578,0.8313772647105978,10,"[-0.76, 0.83]"

results_new/drift_merged_diffae.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended
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results_new/drift_merged_diffae_lag2.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended
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results_new/drift_merged_tvae.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended
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results_new/drift_merged_tvae_lag2.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended
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results_new/drift_merged_vae.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended
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results_new/drift_merged_vae_lag2.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended
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results_new/drift_scores_diffae_h1n1.csv

@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
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results_new/drift_scores_diffae_h1n1_lag2.csv

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
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results_new/drift_scores_diffae_h3n2.csv

@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
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results_new/drift_scores_diffae_h3n2_lag2.csv

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
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results_new/drift_scores_tvae_h1n1.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
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results_new/drift_scores_tvae_h1n1_lag2.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm
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results_new/drift_scores_tvae_h3n2.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
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results_new/drift_scores_tvae_h3n2_lag2.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
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results_new/drift_scores_vae_h1n1.csv

@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
-2009-10,1.450825,646,0.5,H1N1
-2010-11,0.4765356,134,0.0,H1N1
-2011-12,1.2336639,42,0.7771082520484924,H1N1
-2012-13,1.3156829,34,0.8612916469573975,H1N1
-2013-14,0.8869691,112,0.4212644696235657,H1N1
-2014-15,3.229831,140,1.0,H1N1
-2015-16,3.2830172,1524,1.0,H1N1
-2016-17,0.47321114,548,0.0,H1N1
-2017-18,0.8554824,1146,0.13604898750782013,H1N1
-2018-19,0.55094564,2432,0.027665432542562485,H1N1
-2019-20,1.0523629,2032,0.20611804723739624,H1N1
-2020-21,1.0806491,12,0.21618501842021942,H1N1
-2021-22,1.5635442,105,0.38804563879966736,H1N1
-2022-23,0.7888527,2158,0.112335704267025,H1N1
-2023-24,0.48950127,6766,0.005797598510980606,H1N1
-2024-25,0.92285734,6155,0.16002748906612396,H1N1
-2025-26,0.9353826,89,0.16448518633842468,H1N1
+2009-10,1.450889,646,0.5,H1N1
+2010-11,0.47648925,134,0.0,H1N1
+2011-12,1.2336004,42,0.7770025730133057,H1N1
+2012-13,1.3157514,34,0.8613119721412659,H1N1
+2013-14,0.8870982,112,0.42139682173728943,H1N1
+2014-15,3.229958,140,1.0,H1N1
+2015-16,3.2831442,1524,1.0,H1N1
+2016-17,0.4732456,548,0.0,H1N1
+2017-18,0.85536057,1146,0.13598889112472534,H1N1
+2018-19,0.5509908,2432,0.027668340131640434,H1N1
+2019-20,1.0523428,2032,0.20609183609485626,H1N1
+2020-21,1.0803982,12,0.2160763293504715,H1N1
+2021-22,1.5634476,105,0.3879862427711487,H1N1
+2022-23,0.7888692,2158,0.11232562363147736,H1N1
+2023-24,0.4895367,6766,0.005797757767140865,H1N1
+2024-25,0.92283857,6155,0.16000327467918396,H1N1
+2025-26,0.9356745,89,0.1645713746547699,H1N1

results_new/drift_scores_vae_h1n1_lag2.csv

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
-2010-11,1.6838396,134,0.5,H1N1
-2011-12,1.39849,42,0.0,H1N1
-2012-13,0.6571969,34,0.0,H1N1
-2013-14,1.6866796,112,1.0,H1N1
-2014-15,3.2755883,140,1.0,H1N1
-2015-16,1.743154,1524,0.4147420823574066,H1N1
-2016-17,3.353778,548,1.0,H1N1
-2017-18,1.0407152,1146,0.14222393929958344,H1N1
-2018-19,0.9158264,2432,0.09591016173362732,H1N1
-2019-20,1.3699503,2032,0.26431745290756226,H1N1
-2020-21,1.6949286,12,0.3848324120044708,H1N1
-2021-22,1.8264376,105,0.4336012005805969,H1N1
-2022-23,2.1974437,2158,0.5711851119995117,H1N1
-2023-24,0.7683378,6766,0.04121549054980278,H1N1
-2024-25,0.9557891,6155,0.11072992533445358,H1N1
-2025-26,1.4632589,89,0.29892000555992126,H1N1
+2010-11,1.6838981,134,0.5,H1N1
+2011-12,1.3985307,42,0.0,H1N1
+2012-13,0.65720874,34,0.0,H1N1
+2013-14,1.6867096,112,1.0,H1N1
+2014-15,3.2757616,140,1.0,H1N1
+2015-16,1.7431369,1524,0.41470545530319214,H1N1
+2016-17,3.3538356,548,1.0,H1N1
+2017-18,1.0407438,1146,0.14222770929336548,H1N1
+2018-19,0.915748,2432,0.09587505459785461,H1N1
+2019-20,1.3699938,2032,0.26432469487190247,H1N1
+2020-21,1.694671,12,0.3847258985042572,H1N1
+2021-22,1.826467,105,0.4336003363132477,H1N1
+2022-23,2.197362,2158,0.5711406469345093,H1N1
+2023-24,0.7682978,6766,0.04119555652141571,H1N1
+2024-25,0.9557269,6155,0.1107005849480629,H1N1
+2025-26,1.4635142,89,0.2990052103996277,H1N1

results_new/drift_scores_vae_h3n2.csv

@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
-2009-10,1.4048959,7,0.5,H3N2
-2010-11,1.8256954,143,1.0,H3N2
-2011-12,0.69628763,73,0.0,H3N2
-2012-13,1.591805,1091,0.792908787727356,H3N2
-2013-14,0.6546976,86,0.0,H3N2
-2014-15,0.66254073,1432,0.006697823293507099,H3N2
-2015-16,0.89745927,1238,0.20731179416179657,H3N2
-2016-17,0.8643776,2591,0.17906098067760468,H3N2
-2017-18,1.2708418,2414,0.5261702537536621,H3N2
-2018-19,2.7669466,3758,1.0,H3N2
-2019-20,2.5847838,929,0.9137588739395142,H3N2
-2020-21,2.1798487,82,0.7220507860183716,H3N2
-2021-22,0.44398916,5129,0.0,H3N2
-2022-23,1.6075354,3827,0.5008900165557861,H3N2
-2023-24,2.3582237,5038,0.8240506052970886,H3N2
-2024-25,0.5509789,6957,0.046057555824518204,H3N2
-2025-26,2.224057,520,0.7662937641143799,H3N2
+2009-10,1.4049134,7,0.5,H3N2
+2010-11,1.8258564,143,1.0,H3N2
+2011-12,0.696247,73,0.0,H3N2
+2012-13,1.5919019,1091,0.7928889989852905,H3N2
+2013-14,0.6545788,86,0.0,H3N2
+2014-15,0.6625349,1432,0.0067926570773124695,H3N2
+2015-16,0.89752394,1238,0.20741891860961914,H3N2
+2016-17,0.86438394,2591,0.17912502586841583,H3N2
+2017-18,1.2707258,2414,0.5260469317436218,H3N2
+2018-19,2.7668264,3758,1.0,H3N2
+2019-20,2.584583,929,0.9137207269668579,H3N2
+2020-21,2.179456,82,0.7219216823577881,H3N2
+2021-22,0.44372347,5129,0.0,H3N2
+2022-23,1.6073804,3827,0.5009063482284546,H3N2
+2023-24,2.3581033,5038,0.8240615725517273,H3N2
+2024-25,0.55099255,6957,0.04617491364479065,H3N2
+2025-26,2.223808,520,0.7662529945373535,H3N2

results_new/drift_scores_vae_h3n2_lag2.csv

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
-2010-11,1.9789417,143,0.5,H3N2
-2011-12,1.7089305,73,0.0,H3N2
-2012-13,1.8436354,1091,0.4988865554332733,H3N2
-2013-14,1.8113375,86,0.37926939129829407,H3N2
-2014-15,1.0838729,1432,0.0,H3N2
-2015-16,0.71728826,1238,0.0,H3N2
-2016-17,1.122984,2591,0.3215588331222534,H3N2
-2017-18,1.4978067,2414,0.6186472177505493,H3N2
-2018-19,2.3151267,3758,1.0,H3N2
-2019-20,2.1846278,929,0.9183278679847717,H3N2
-2020-21,2.7900617,82,1.0,H3N2
-2021-22,2.4172654,5129,0.8201461434364319,H3N2
-2022-23,1.4695538,3827,0.36292704939842224,H3N2
-2023-24,2.3646626,5038,0.7947681546211243,H3N2
-2024-25,2.4013884,6957,0.8124863505363464,H3N2
-2025-26,2.3938072,520,0.8088288307189941,H3N2
+2010-11,1.9789968,143,0.5,H3N2
+2011-12,1.709227,73,0.0,H3N2
+2012-13,1.8436772,1091,0.4983886480331421,H3N2
+2013-14,1.8113673,86,0.3786202669143677,H3N2
+2014-15,1.0837392,1432,0.0,H3N2
+2015-16,0.7172883,1238,0.0,H3N2
+2016-17,1.1230145,2591,0.3215688467025757,H3N2
+2017-18,1.4976808,2414,0.6185204386711121,H3N2
+2018-19,2.3151217,3758,1.0,H3N2
+2019-20,2.1844294,929,0.9182065725326538,H3N2
+2020-21,2.78988,82,1.0,H3N2
+2021-22,2.4169571,5129,0.8200693130493164,H3N2
+2022-23,1.4693893,3827,0.3628794550895691,H3N2
+2023-24,2.3643763,5038,0.7946996688842773,H3N2
+2024-25,2.4012733,6957,0.8125020265579224,H3N2
+2025-26,2.3937602,520,0.8088770508766174,H3N2

results_new/full_model_comparison.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,16 @@
 Model,Split,RMSE,MAE,r,rho
-DiffAE lag-1,Calib,22.324213840990897,18.376961803436277,0.6143446226711793,0.4637130167514838
-DiffAE lag-1,Valid,13.815539711619138,11.275369262695312,0.8629234872587804,0.19999999999999998
-DiffAE lag-1,All,19.49617295100787,15.645580056997444,0.7065065748221085,0.47476573641351993
-VAE lag-1,Calib,20.994772065537852,17.29335889816284,0.7985789477306864,0.5182674893104819
-VAE lag-1,Valid,13.73814430302318,10.965842285156251,0.9443176534160846,0.3
-VAE lag-1,All,18.542937028015956,14.859698662391073,0.8191369382009438,0.6782367663050285
-DiffAE lag-2,Calib,16.686148907477406,13.502629184722899,0.7987269916538151,0.5182674893104819
-DiffAE lag-2,Valid,137.20136128205786,84.00085998535155,-0.9313381344843926,-0.7999999999999999
-DiffAE lag-2,All,86.08961708643137,40.617333338810845,-0.1297512673642032,0.33911838315251425
-DiffAE combined,Calib,22.680264651175186,18.51344871520996,0.5784229798821824,0.4364357804719847
-DiffAE combined,Valid,27.531314148485635,22.103874969482423,-0.39412733063200855,-0.6
-DiffAE combined,All,24.659249366097285,19.894381889930138,0.43911105663604255,0.31085851788980473
+DiffAE lag-1,Calib,22.323976096464357,18.37691602706909,0.6143652101381859,0.4637130167514838
+DiffAE lag-1,Valid,13.815013664970625,11.274404907226563,0.8629677995938464,0.19999999999999998
+DiffAE lag-1,All,19.495862051808132,15.64518098097581,0.7065316795356926,0.47476573641351993
+VAE lag-1,Calib,20.994241940491616,17.291990375518797,0.7985955756353638,0.5182674893104819
+VAE lag-1,Valid,13.73875935241444,10.966592254638673,0.944342027010121,0.3
+VAE lag-1,All,18.54274293037358,14.859144944411055,0.8191697197130399,0.6782367663050285
+TVAE lag-1,Calib,46.39452823340632,34.32749710083008,-0.5370477214378062,-0.39440531887330776
+TVAE lag-1,Valid,51.701306168627035,47.813266372680665,-0.6972367352244174,-0.49999999999999994
+TVAE lag-1,All,48.50435610708133,39.51433143615722,-0.5879045814014945,-0.5363122060808064
+DiffAE lag-2,Calib,16.686105962260395,13.50258388519287,0.7987281701503464,0.5182674893104819
+DiffAE lag-2,Valid,137.1875765366478,83.99670349121092,-0.9313202453742727,-0.7999999999999999
+DiffAE lag-2,All,86.08116243382585,40.615706810584435,-0.1297172055494738,0.33911838315251425
+DiffAE combined,Calib,22.680703796461295,18.513486862182617,0.578401462391103,0.4364357804719847
+DiffAE combined,Valid,27.53017405515883,22.102867126464844,-0.3940645126733101,-0.6
+DiffAE combined,All,24.659008363553177,19.894017733060398,0.4391125341313591,0.31085851788980473

results_new/latent_diversity_diffae_h3n2.csv

@@ -1,19 +1,19 @@
 season,latent_spread,latent_spread_std,latent_var_trace,n_sequences
-2008-09,0.34799668,0.17536333,0.1524974229125625,237
-2009-10,0.90725166,0.46393803,1.2114011051135116,7
-2010-11,0.5297009,0.48136762,0.5159054334091772,143
-2011-12,0.66944474,0.45950532,0.6684583268774811,73
-2012-13,0.58300006,0.30534256,0.43352052959144505,1091
-2013-14,0.5405846,0.13683708,0.31461442724265287,86
-2014-15,0.5508623,0.30057478,0.39406968285190747,1432
-2015-16,0.85173917,0.1739907,0.7563434720284813,1238
-2016-17,0.77390456,0.28207383,0.6787559455497654,2591
-2017-18,0.6438997,0.42345905,0.5941704898798633,2414
-2018-19,0.8192407,0.33510438,0.78365876841969,3758
-2019-20,0.8178969,0.25054035,0.7325143328680614,929
-2020-21,0.45441753,0.1872265,0.24453113327090986,82
-2021-22,0.5339787,0.2853063,0.3666044286012604,5129
-2022-23,0.5957089,0.27209955,0.4290193957438692,3827
-2023-24,0.4848465,0.24134924,0.2933838880111347,5038
-2024-25,0.7395628,0.20150009,0.5876399885641852,6957
-2025-26,0.2879503,0.28932673,0.1669463867971957,520
+2008-09,0.347987,0.17535543,0.1524878694887088,237
+2009-10,0.9072131,0.46394444,1.2113266381031922,7
+2010-11,0.5297071,0.48135176,0.5158967936746626,143
+2011-12,0.6694304,0.45950186,0.668435630424155,73
+2012-13,0.58300686,0.30533922,0.4335264004912621,1091
+2013-14,0.54057443,0.13682966,0.3146012149692702,86
+2014-15,0.5508577,0.30058625,0.3940715162082394,1432
+2015-16,0.8517246,0.1739838,0.7563161165015607,1238
+2016-17,0.7739091,0.28207153,0.6787616335243939,2591
+2017-18,0.6439014,0.42344764,0.5941629967216406,2414
+2018-19,0.8192312,0.33510643,0.7836446958219159,3758
+2019-20,0.81788504,0.25054094,0.7324951710144255,929
+2020-21,0.4543805,0.1872162,0.24449315948622538,82
+2021-22,0.5339615,0.2853101,0.3665882131894259,5129
+2022-23,0.5956991,0.27208915,0.42900196133832713,3827
+2023-24,0.4848478,0.24133302,0.2933772826602236,5038
+2024-25,0.73953223,0.20150457,0.5875965588408086,6957
+2025-26,0.2879497,0.28931713,0.16694047918102684,520

results_new/latent_diversity_tvae_h3n2.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+season,latent_spread,latent_spread_std,latent_var_trace,n_sequences
+2008-09,7.930055e-05,0.00014011178,2.602971489239697e-08,237
+2009-10,0.0005705773,0.00033778843,5.129360324818144e-07,7
+2010-11,0.000305698,0.00087541394,8.65855835666633e-07,143
+2011-12,0.00028070487,0.00034157932,1.9818654396098406e-07,73
+2012-13,0.0002510564,0.0004670653,2.8143721146455623e-07,1091
+2013-14,0.00012766756,8.5187625e-05,2.3833066738239053e-08,86
+2014-15,9.801795e-05,8.96034e-05,1.7648526581039216e-08,1432
+2015-16,0.00015138484,0.00011117059,3.5304784081098516e-08,1238
+2016-17,0.00047009284,0.0004936042,4.648117626382925e-07,2591
+2017-18,0.0004296616,0.0005661929,5.053923777568331e-07,2414
+2018-19,0.00044083002,0.00029988887,2.8433996665341996e-07,3758
+2019-20,0.00057469093,0.00012664954,3.466829831952315e-07,929
+2020-21,8.5427695e-05,0.00016032775,3.341029945842962e-08,82
+2021-22,9.679496e-05,0.00014286311,2.978427996750329e-08,5129
+2022-23,0.000118606855,0.00015142615,3.70067557509334e-08,3827
+2023-24,0.00013388623,0.00028931274,1.0164470966745111e-07,5038
+2024-25,0.00018824854,0.00031510906,1.3475044243798944e-07,6957
+2025-26,0.00010341611,8.440803e-05,1.7853915756260216e-08,520

results_new/latent_diversity_vae_h3n2.csv

@@ -1,19 +1,19 @@
 season,latent_spread,latent_spread_std,latent_var_trace,n_sequences
-2008-09,1.118246,0.45252007,1.4614145552013458,237
-2009-10,2.7893624,1.1113913,10.51835534333123,7
-2010-11,2.154125,0.7790219,5.284081581164202,143
-2011-12,2.0850751,0.9447484,5.312866482901703,73
-2012-13,1.4296752,0.62001103,2.430612622182104,1091
-2013-14,1.344636,0.482366,2.064731626802776,86
-2014-15,1.2798865,0.57080245,1.9652968882986825,1432
-2015-16,1.7440839,0.39557528,3.200894235629856,1238
-2016-17,1.6630814,0.5196149,3.037011743619697,2591
-2017-18,1.5632833,0.80583674,3.0945094018395687,2414
-2018-19,1.9605919,0.80832297,4.498504110298732,3758
-2019-20,1.7020276,0.62496156,3.291017156746192,929
-2020-21,1.4102268,0.5317966,2.2995912191600194,82
-2021-22,1.4071878,0.594125,2.333616857844206,5129
-2022-23,1.6020731,0.57157767,2.894095524533272,3827
-2023-24,1.0709511,0.47559032,1.3733950570133384,5038
-2024-25,1.3575284,0.4634549,2.0579693733329956,6957
-2025-26,1.112448,0.82856077,1.927760638537799,520
+2008-09,1.1181062,0.45252684,1.461107070932599,237
+2009-10,2.789356,1.1115388,10.51869599741131,7
+2010-11,2.154007,0.77886903,5.2833296510343635,143
+2011-12,2.085116,0.94465184,5.3128537540551575,73
+2012-13,1.4297532,0.61995405,2.430765025700416,1091
+2013-14,1.344742,0.4823161,2.064971179391212,86
+2014-15,1.2799008,0.57077575,1.9653036032742826,1432
+2015-16,1.7439564,0.39557454,3.2004481845719157,1238
+2016-17,1.6629968,0.5196128,3.036727832221204,2591
+2017-18,1.563188,0.8057997,3.0941512985660093,2414
+2018-19,1.9605093,0.8083043,4.498149516783052,3758
+2019-20,1.7020738,0.62488127,3.2910740868459616,929
+2020-21,1.409919,0.53167903,2.298585792477243,82
+2021-22,1.4070408,0.5941305,2.333209929302637,5129
+2022-23,1.6019987,0.5715492,2.8938246012376405,3827
+2023-24,1.0708942,0.47554114,1.373226320417512,5038
+2024-25,1.3575823,0.4633772,2.058044079122133,6957
+2025-26,1.1123648,0.82864416,1.9277137822459753,520

results_new/sirc_params_diffae.csv

@@ -1,11 +1,11 @@
 ,0
-beta,0.4839023947715759
-sigma_inv,147.46920776367188
-delta_min,0.011883399449288845
-delta_max,0.043335456401109695
-k_map,2.7173430919647217
-S0_base,0.44527968764305115
+beta,0.4838982820510864
+sigma_inv,147.46897888183594
+delta_min,0.011883491650223732
+delta_max,0.043336931616067886
+k_map,2.7173590660095215
+S0_base,0.44527938961982727
 gamma,0.2
 mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
-sigma,0.006781076640776149
-calib_rmse,22.3242130279541
+sigma,0.006781087165466039
+calib_rmse,22.323976516723633

results_new/sirc_params_diffae_combined.csv

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
 ,0
-beta,0.5424919128417969
-sigma_inv,150.30633544921875
-delta_min,0.012005985714495182
-delta_max,0.03574724495410919
-k_map,2.2546401023864746
-S0_base,0.46232783794403076
-calib_rmse,22.68026351928711
+beta,0.5424668788909912
+sigma_inv,150.30838012695312
+delta_min,0.012006236240267754
+delta_max,0.035744667053222656
+k_map,2.2547357082366943
+S0_base,0.4623243510723114
+calib_rmse,22.680702209472656

results_new/sirc_params_diffae_lag2.csv

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
 ,0
-beta,0.5816042423248291
-sigma_inv,129.84266662597656
-delta_min,0.010107772424817085
-delta_max,0.05251959711313248
-k_map,2.1105165481567383
-S0_base,0.45782148838043213
-calib_rmse,16.686147689819336
+beta,0.5816060304641724
+sigma_inv,129.84268188476562
+delta_min,0.010107805952429771
+delta_max,0.05252006649971008
+k_map,2.1105055809020996
+S0_base,0.457821786403656
+calib_rmse,16.686105728149414

results_new/sirc_params_tvae.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+,0
+beta,0.45524871349334717
+sigma_inv,132.59384155273438
+delta_min,0.011663076467812061
+delta_max,0.09564283490180969
+k_map,1.5769283771514893
+S0_base,0.4341738522052765
+gamma,0.2
+mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
+sigma,0.007541828400848364
+calib_rmse,46.394527435302734

results_new/sirc_params_vae.csv

@@ -1,11 +1,11 @@
 ,0
-beta,0.4929124116897583
-sigma_inv,139.94671630859375
-delta_min,0.01088892575353384
-delta_max,0.046870455145835876
-k_map,2.833252191543579
-S0_base,0.4437074661254883
+beta,0.49291300773620605
+sigma_inv,139.94638061523438
+delta_min,0.01088887732475996
+delta_max,0.046872518956661224
+k_map,2.833195447921753
+S0_base,0.4437076449394226
 gamma,0.2
 mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
-sigma,0.0071455767336113815
-calib_rmse,20.994770050048828
+sigma,0.007145593873909314
+calib_rmse,20.99424171447754

results_new/sirc_simulation_diffae.csv

@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 season,drift_blended,hosp_obs,hosp_sim,delta_used,S0_used
-2010-11,0.0,21.5,36.693962,0.011883399449288845,0.44527968764305115
-2011-12,0.0,8.7,36.693962,0.011883399449288845,0.44527968764305115
-2012-13,0.0,44.0,36.693962,0.011883399449288845,0.44527968764305115
-2013-14,0.0,35.1,36.693962,0.011883399449288845,0.44527968764305115
-2014-15,0.0,64.1,36.693962,0.011883399449288845,0.44527968764305115
-2015-16,0.5695289642810822,31.4,57.393284,0.018695823038336543,0.5307090322852135
-2016-17,0.2637142496109009,62.0,65.05153,0.012724156334611448,0.4848368250846863
-2017-18,0.4429777984023094,102.9,64.42308,0.015324897407350782,0.5117263574033976
-2018-19,0.42957349978387355,63.6,64.97124,0.015049217786268106,0.5097157126106322
-2019-20,0.11433298283815385,66.0,52.4202,0.011970171123580113,0.4624296350687742
-2021-22,0.0011003448814153672,17.5,36.855743,0.011883399736676329,0.44544473937526347
-2022-23,0.43445285655558114,62.4,64.778656,0.015147887127652339,0.5104476161263883
-2023-24,0.23931043803691865,83.5,63.80859,0.012529164832588709,0.48117625334858893
+2010-11,0.0,21.5,36.694496,0.011883491650223732,0.44527938961982727
+2011-12,0.0,8.7,36.694496,0.011883491650223732,0.44527938961982727
+2012-13,0.0,44.0,36.694496,0.011883491650223732,0.44527938961982727
+2013-14,0.0,35.1,36.694496,0.011883491650223732,0.44527938961982727
+2014-15,0.0,64.1,36.694496,0.011883491650223732,0.44527938961982727
+2015-16,0.5695385610461235,31.4,57.390423,0.01869646547863697,0.5307101737767458
+2016-17,0.2637512340545654,62.0,65.05291,0.01272458805729931,0.4848420747280121
+2017-18,0.4429615899920463,102.9,64.4225,0.015324753995729969,0.5117236281186343
+2018-19,0.42957167014479636,63.6,64.97039,0.015049369821419575,0.5097151401415467
+2019-20,0.11433119557797909,66.0,52.42042,0.011970260448164583,0.46242906895652414
+2021-22,0.0011000202596187592,17.5,36.855743,0.011883491937362264,0.44544439265877006
+2022-23,0.4344884544909,62.4,64.776245,0.015148806322566818,0.5104526577934623
+2023-24,0.2393365252017975,83.5,63.809933,0.012529461987287686,0.4811798684000969

results_new/sirc_simulation_diffae_combined.csv

@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 season,drift_combined,hosp_obs,hosp_sim
-2010-11,0.0,21.5,32.590405
-2011-12,0.0,8.7,32.590405
-2012-13,0.0,44.0,32.590405
-2013-14,0.0,35.1,32.590405
-2014-15,0.0,64.1,32.590405
-2015-16,0.3521678179726005,31.4,69.9922
-2016-17,0.22122175723314286,62.0,61.21561
-2017-18,0.4415608502626419,102.9,74.5786
-2018-19,0.4671386353299022,63.6,75.94679
-2019-20,0.1353245297446847,66.0,52.43522
-2021-22,0.3743579401448369,17.5,71.1548
-2022-23,0.37067502289265397,62.4,70.96499
-2023-24,0.22001605245471,83.5,61.111988
+2010-11,0.0,21.5,32.590584
+2011-12,0.0,8.7,32.590584
+2012-13,0.0,44.0,32.590584
+2013-14,0.0,35.1,32.590584
+2014-15,0.0,64.1,32.590584
+2015-16,0.352172490477562,31.4,69.99233
+2016-17,0.22124290466308594,62.0,61.218025
+2017-18,0.4415466879308223,102.9,74.57583
+2018-19,0.4671379625052213,63.6,75.943756
+2019-20,0.1353143928125501,66.0,52.43392
+2021-22,0.3743237052038312,17.5,71.1527
+2022-23,0.37067701368033884,62.4,70.96481
+2023-24,0.22002325545996426,83.5,61.113014

results_new/sirc_simulation_diffae_lag2.csv

@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 season,drift_blended,hosp_obs,hosp_sim
-2010-11,0.0,21.5,33.423096
-2011-12,0.0,8.7,33.423096
-2012-13,0.0,44.0,33.423096
-2013-14,0.0,35.1,33.423096
-2014-15,0.0,64.1,33.423096
-2015-16,0.13480667166411878,31.4,48.56613
-2016-17,0.17872926485538482,62.0,50.88374
-2017-18,0.4401439021229744,102.9,103.06174
-2018-19,0.5047037708759308,63.6,139.75497
-2019-20,0.15631607665121555,66.0,49.772545
-2021-22,0.7476155354082584,17.5,312.562
-2022-23,0.3068971892297268,62.4,61.3925
-2023-24,0.2007216668725014,83.5,51.94764
+2010-11,0.0,21.5,33.423187
+2011-12,0.0,8.7,33.423187
+2012-13,0.0,44.0,33.423187
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+2015-16,0.1348064199090004,31.4,48.566177
+2016-17,0.17873457527160644,62.0,50.884277
+2017-18,0.44013178586959834,102.9,103.06196
+2018-19,0.5047042548656463,63.6,139.76414
+2019-20,0.15629759004712107,66.0,49.77174
+2021-22,0.7475473901480436,17.5,312.5275
+2022-23,0.30686557286977767,62.4,61.38915
+2023-24,0.20070998571813106,83.5,51.947235

results_new/sirc_simulation_tvae.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+season,drift_blended,hosp_obs,hosp_sim
+2010-11,0.0,21.5,34.680023
+2011-12,0.0,8.7,34.680023
+2012-13,0.0,44.0,34.680023
+2013-14,0.0,35.1,34.680023
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+2015-16,0.545,31.4,0.0
+2016-17,0.60045911693573,62.0,0.0
+2017-18,0.597,102.9,0.0
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+2019-20,0.06150894136726856,66.0,25.820732
+2021-22,0.015528545482084155,17.5,34.697548
+2022-23,0.0859594991877675,62.4,18.14492
+2023-24,0.10955588544160128,83.5,9.665564

results_new/sirc_simulation_vae.csv

@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 season,drift_blended,hosp_obs,hosp_sim
-2010-11,0.0,21.5,40.21561
-2011-12,0.0,8.7,40.21561
-2012-13,0.0,44.0,40.21561
-2013-14,0.0,35.1,40.21561
-2014-15,0.0,64.1,40.21561
-2015-16,0.5769260163009167,31.4,45.554726
-2016-17,0.1332213696241379,62.0,57.593063
-2017-18,0.32908903011679647,102.9,66.1304
-2018-19,0.43438602492213246,63.6,59.98023
-2019-20,0.14691279691457748,66.0,59.000103
-2021-22,0.001940228193998337,17.5,40.492638
-2022-23,0.3600470893606544,62.4,65.0134
-2023-24,0.22527071311697366,83.5,64.89649
+2010-11,0.0,21.5,40.216057
+2011-12,0.0,8.7,40.216057
+2012-13,0.0,44.0,40.216057
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+2015-16,0.5769425134658814,31.4,45.547977
+2016-17,0.13326901924610138,62.0,57.59816
+2017-18,0.329008796274662,102.9,66.12995
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+2019-20,0.14689731477200985,66.0,58.99845
+2021-22,0.0019399312138557434,17.5,40.493042
+2022-23,0.3600548569709063,62.4,65.01018
+2023-24,0.22527375055942686,83.5,64.89569