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results_new/correlation_comparison.csv

@@ -1,10 +1,10 @@
 Metric,rho,p,CI_lo,CI_hi,n,CI
-DiffAE lag-1 (blended),0.4509836398210509,0.09156012139132494,-0.08230678312025709,0.78657442768004,15,"[-0.08, 0.79]"
-DiffAE lag-2 (blended),0.4255248859601851,0.11380100835183467,-0.15675655456203463,0.8470255585702305,15,"[-0.16, 0.85]"
-VAE lag-1 (blended),0.4364357804719848,0.10385510395975796,-0.06938106307033166,0.7790487408719494,15,"[-0.07, 0.78]"
-VAE lag-2 (blended),0.3600595188893874,0.18741406766247667,-0.2067294244964042,0.81380181951844,15,"[-0.21, 0.81]"
-TVAE lag-1 (blended),0.45825756949558405,0.08581470399442769,-0.07426181843342064,0.8029953766987926,15,"[-0.07, 0.80]"
-TVAE lag-2 (blended),0.38551827275025324,0.15585899037368892,-0.1715407510391921,0.8280001058131181,15,"[-0.17, 0.83]"
+DiffAE lag-1 (blended),0.38551827275025324,0.15585899037368892,-0.16386050129229068,0.7589931501658211,15,"[-0.16, 0.76]"
+DiffAE lag-2 (blended),0.3818813079129867,0.16013360492815723,-0.18514376606126362,0.840433981224313,15,"[-0.19, 0.84]"
+VAE lag-1 (blended),0.3927922024247863,0.14753955763888887,-0.1637729838026484,0.7556708662049411,15,"[-0.16, 0.76]"
+VAE lag-2 (blended),0.4037030969365859,0.13562827630878244,-0.17109575303805602,0.8437232950191448,15,"[-0.17, 0.84]"
+TVAE lag-1 (blended),0.49099025303098287,0.0630989066582577,-0.046989258091308675,0.8380416712690478,15,"[-0.05, 0.84]"
+TVAE lag-2 (blended),0.46553149917011705,0.08032984536217488,-0.06803267873382532,0.8839678548206559,15,"[-0.07, 0.88]"
 Hamming H3N2 lag-1,0.007405376032788813,0.9791035961351728,-0.5507549288055146,0.5589298744299823,15,"[-0.55, 0.56]"
 Hamming H3N2 lag-2,0.033958905427861195,0.9043678210462518,-0.5201586903828396,0.579691735485091,15,"[-0.52, 0.58]"
 H1N1 co-circulation,0.13939393939393938,0.7009318849100584,-0.7583165363218578,0.8313772647105978,10,"[-0.76, 0.83]"

results_new/drift_merged_diffae.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended
-2010-11,,,21.5,False,0.0,0.0,0.24803346395492554,0.6334459185600281,0.0
-2011-12,,,8.7,False,0.42737314105033875,0.0,0.47171881794929504,0.3518551290035248,0.0
-2012-13,,,44.0,False,0.1634288728237152,1.0,0.3335714638233185,0.8725458979606628,0.0
-2013-14,,,35.1,False,0.4886438250541687,0.27168482542037964,0.503787636756897,0.49331891536712646,0.0
-2014-15,,,64.1,False,1.0,0.14300668239593506,1.3686156272888184,0.42631739377975464,0.0
-2015-16,0.545,0.154,31.4,False,1.0,0.15934130549430847,1.666963815689087,0.434822678565979,0.5695385610461235
-2016-17,0.024,0.744,62.0,False,0.0,0.3545043468475342,0.22882859408855438,0.5364422798156738,0.2637512340545654
-2017-18,0.11,0.597,102.9,False,0.23939943313598633,0.6978687644004822,0.5731173753738403,0.7152289748191833,0.4429615899920463
-2018-19,0.52,0.42,63.6,False,0.018407057970762253,1.0,0.2553004324436188,1.0809414386749268,0.42957167014479636
-2019-20,0.531,0.041,66.0,False,0.1415252834558487,0.9556407332420349,0.43236109614372253,1.0485997200012207,0.11433119557797909
-2021-22,0.005,0.986,17.5,False,0.22000405192375183,0.0,0.5452241897583008,0.13374482095241547,0.0011000202596187592
-2022-23,0.289,0.654,62.4,False,0.09678128361701965,0.6215881705284119,0.3680131733417511,0.7248035669326782,0.4344884544909
-2023-24,0.479,0.27,83.5,False,0.0,0.8864315748214722,0.2231203019618988,0.9766391515731812,0.2393365252017975
-2024-25,0.496,0.437,126.2,False,0.19730807840824127,0.18943163752555847,0.5080022811889648,0.31387248635292053,0.18064643248915674
-2025-26,0.111,0.808,78.2,False,0.20791901648044586,1.0,0.5233228206634521,1.1456024646759033,0.8310790108293296
+2010-11,,,21.5,False,0.0,0.0,0.019403398036956787,0.06124913692474365,0.0
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+2015-16,0.545,0.154,31.4,False,1.0,0.5515461564064026,0.5610330104827881,0.09895628690719604,0.629938108086586
+2016-17,0.024,0.744,62.0,False,0.011179001070559025,1.0,0.02545827627182007,0.17705434560775757,0.7442682960256934
+2017-18,0.11,0.597,102.9,False,0.28075674176216125,1.0,0.1714695692062378,0.325991153717041,0.6278832415938377
+2018-19,0.52,0.42,63.6,False,0.02334611304104328,1.0,0.03204834461212158,0.5921335220336914,0.43213997878134247
+2019-20,0.531,0.041,66.0,False,0.24206581711769104,1.0,0.1505134105682373,0.6195746064186096,0.16953694888949397
+2021-22,0.005,0.986,17.5,False,0.7433327436447144,0.0,0.42201441526412964,0.014556348323822021,0.003716663718223572
+2022-23,0.289,0.654,62.4,False,0.35339540243148804,0.4185779094696045,0.21081280708312988,0.3944040536880493,0.3758812240958214
+2023-24,0.479,0.27,83.5,False,0.09139998257160187,0.790522575378418,0.06890833377838135,0.7319334149360657,0.2572216870039702
+2024-25,0.496,0.437,126.2,False,0.540651261806488,0.0685829296708107,0.31223613023757935,0.07679343223571777,0.29813376612216236
+2025-26,0.111,0.808,78.2,False,0.23248238861560822,0.45992955565452576,0.1453227400779724,0.4319295287132263,0.39742862610518936

results_new/drift_merged_diffae_lag2.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended
-2010-11,,,21.5,False,0.5,0.5,0.7833125591278076,0.8496021032333374,0.0
-2011-12,,,8.7,False,0.0,0.0,0.624801754951477,0.6389384865760803,0.0
-2012-13,,,44.0,False,0.0,1.0,0.3142797648906708,1.1452760696411133,0.0
-2013-14,,,35.1,False,1.0,0.9233307838439941,0.7889097332954407,1.1064555644989014,0.0
-2014-15,,,64.1,False,1.0,0.36243173480033875,1.599363923072815,0.8224512934684753,0.0
-2015-16,0.545,0.154,31.4,False,0.24735122919082642,0.0,0.6321468949317932,0.417932391166687,0.1348064199090004
-2016-17,0.024,0.744,62.0,False,1.0,0.2079765796661377,1.615738868713379,0.5692028403282166,0.17873457527160644
-2017-18,0.11,0.597,102.9,False,0.28068017959594727,0.6855225563049316,0.6795735359191895,0.9165428876876831,0.44013178586959834
-2018-19,0.52,0.42,63.6,False,0.2683354616165161,0.8694519400596619,0.6635074019432068,1.0503227710723877,0.5047042548656463
-2019-20,0.531,0.041,66.0,False,0.21788427233695984,0.9902693033218384,0.5978472232818604,1.1381984949111938,0.15629759004712107
-2021-22,0.005,0.986,17.5,False,0.24649177491664886,0.7569116950035095,0.6350787281990051,1.1520018577575684,0.7475473901480436
-2022-23,0.289,0.654,62.4,False,0.3952478766441345,0.2945549488067627,0.8286787271499634,0.7035982012748718,0.30686557286977767
-2023-24,0.479,0.27,83.5,False,0.08233048021793365,0.597309947013855,0.42142951488494873,0.9972165822982788,0.20070998571813106
-2024-25,0.496,0.437,126.2,False,0.18349719047546387,0.6847602128982544,0.5530938506126404,1.082027792930603,0.3902548195123673
-2025-26,0.111,0.808,78.2,False,0.3817109167575836,0.7308130860328674,0.811060905456543,1.1266908645629883,0.6328668852746486
+2010-11,,,21.5,False,0.5,0.5,0.14873802661895752,0.11010384559631348,0.0
+2011-12,,,8.7,False,0.0,0.0,0.11635911464691162,0.05659991502761841,0.0
+2012-13,,,44.0,False,0.0,1.0,0.034369587898254395,0.23855775594711304,0.0
+2013-14,,,35.1,False,1.0,1.0,0.19507408142089844,0.29527735710144043,0.0
+2014-15,,,64.1,False,1.0,1.0,0.485450804233551,0.29961395263671875,0.0
+2015-16,0.545,0.154,31.4,False,0.29067638516426086,0.20866797864437103,0.16548824310302734,0.10730916261672974,0.19055349862575532
+2016-17,0.024,0.744,62.0,False,1.0,0.5314030647277832,0.514673113822937,0.18573832511901855,0.4193638801574707
+2017-18,0.11,0.597,102.9,False,0.4307566285133362,1.0,0.2412635087966919,0.4758920669555664,0.644383229136467
+2018-19,0.52,0.42,63.6,False,0.43961992859840393,1.0,0.24552059173583984,0.6298485994338989,0.64860236287117
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+2022-23,0.289,0.654,62.4,False,1.0,0.30180490016937256,0.883577823638916,0.3841325044631958,0.48638040471076965
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+2024-25,0.496,0.437,126.2,False,0.3886423110961914,0.7357478141784668,0.36440783739089966,0.8550673723220825,0.5142883810997009
+2025-26,0.111,0.808,78.2,False,0.5333930253982544,0.32271715998649597,0.4873313307762146,0.406827449798584,0.319962091088295

results_new/drift_merged_tvae.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended
-2010-11,,,21.5,False,0.0,0.0,0.047249358147382736,0.00031050987308844924,0.0
-2011-12,,,8.7,False,0.0,0.0,0.03975021466612816,8.962955325841904e-05,0.0
-2012-13,,,44.0,False,1.0,0.25357720255851746,0.1884067952632904,0.000156549402163364,0.0
-2013-14,,,35.1,False,0.9789671897888184,0.0,0.18528012931346893,8.026814612094313e-05,0.0
-2014-15,,,64.1,False,1.0,0.0,0.27316683530807495,5.8827474276768044e-05,0.0
-2015-16,0.545,0.154,31.4,False,1.0,0.0,0.2782122492790222,4.15417889598757e-05,0.545
-2016-17,0.024,0.744,62.0,False,0.0,0.8070687055587769,0.0075523993000388145,0.0002933399809990078,0.60045911693573
-2017-18,0.11,0.597,102.9,False,0.0,1.0,0.0012741262326017022,0.0006177682662382722,0.597
-2018-19,0.52,0.42,63.6,False,0.14498305320739746,1.0,0.04142545908689499,0.0006288664299063385,0.4953911876678467
-2019-20,0.531,0.041,66.0,False,0.0635751336812973,0.6768425703048706,0.018880503252148628,0.0004390680987853557,0.06150894136726856
-2021-22,0.005,0.986,17.5,False,0.25712674856185913,0.01444514375180006,0.07248231768608093,5.002577745472081e-05,0.015528545482084155
-2022-23,0.289,0.654,62.4,False,0.22555497288703918,0.03176469728350639,0.06373889744281769,6.019797729095444e-05,0.0859594991877675
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-2024-25,0.496,0.437,126.2,False,0.10573097318410873,0.11264564841985703,0.030555061995983124,0.00010770135122584179,0.10166871105879546
-2025-26,0.111,0.808,78.2,False,0.03214199095964432,0.3220685124397278,0.01017546933144331,0.00023070054885465652,0.26379911904782055
+2010-11,,,21.5,False,0.0,0.0,0.00047069787979125977,1.9669532775878906e-06,0.0
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+2016-17,0.024,0.744,62.0,False,0.0,0.5641025900840759,3.4749507904052734e-05,1.3709068298339844e-06,0.4196923270225525
+2017-18,0.11,0.597,102.9,False,0.0,1.0,1.3709068298339844e-06,7.271766662597656e-06,0.597
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+2019-20,0.531,0.041,66.0,False,0.004503799136728048,0.515625,6.651878356933594e-05,3.993511199951172e-06,0.023532142341602592
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+2022-23,0.289,0.654,62.4,False,0.06184585765004158,0.0,0.0008959770202636719,0.0,0.017873452860862015
+2023-24,0.479,0.27,83.5,False,0.012868585996329784,0.07751937955617905,0.0001875162124633789,5.960464477539062e-07,0.02709428517241031
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results_new/drift_merged_tvae_lag2.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended
-2010-11,,,21.5,False,0.5,0.5,0.02840210683643818,0.00015037148841656744,0.0
-2011-12,,,8.7,False,0.0,1.0,0.008423984050750732,0.0003184183733537793,0.0
-2012-13,,,44.0,False,1.0,0.21943239867687225,0.14890426397323608,0.00018724641995504498,0.0
-2013-14,,,35.1,False,0.0,0.12704823911190033,0.005594941321760416,0.0001717215491225943,0.0
-2014-15,,,64.1,False,0.6984757781028748,0.0,0.1056930273771286,0.00011626751802396029,0.0
-2015-16,0.545,0.154,31.4,False,0.000617196608800441,0.0,0.0056833913549780846,6.418878911063075e-05,0.0003363721517962404
-2016-17,0.024,0.744,62.0,False,1.0,0.9740080833435059,0.28498831391334534,0.00031181046506389976,0.7486620140075684
-2017-18,0.11,0.597,102.9,False,0.0051592811942100525,1.0,0.0070364102721214294,0.0008550261845812201,0.5975675209313631
-2018-19,0.52,0.42,63.6,False,0.13075275719165802,0.0986025407910347,0.04212639480829239,0.0001421673659933731,0.10940450087189674
-2019-20,0.531,0.041,66.0,False,0.07775299996137619,0.372551828622818,0.027318613603711128,0.0003588167019188404,0.056561467953026294
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-2023-24,0.479,0.27,83.5,False,0.10656998306512833,0.10313740372657776,0.035369887948036194,0.00016098696505650878,0.07889412089437246
-2024-25,0.496,0.437,126.2,False,0.0,0.1529780626296997,0.003969538491219282,0.00020776421297341585,0.06685141336917877
-2025-26,0.111,0.808,78.2,False,0.05915801599621773,0.13972461223602295,0.020594051107764244,0.00019532538135536015,0.11946402646228671
+2010-11,,,21.5,False,0.5,0.5,7.903575897216797e-05,4.172325134277344e-07,0.0
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results_new/drift_merged_vae.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended
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results_new/drift_merged_vae_lag2.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended
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results_new/drift_scores_diffae_h1n1.csv

@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
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results_new/drift_scores_diffae_h1n1_lag2.csv

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
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results_new/drift_scores_diffae_h3n2.csv

@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
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+2024-25,0.07679343,6957,0.0685829296708107,H3N2
+2025-26,0.43192953,520,0.45992955565452576,H3N2

results_new/drift_scores_diffae_h3n2_lag2.csv

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
-2010-11,0.8496021,143,0.5,H3N2
-2011-12,0.6389385,73,0.0,H3N2
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-2013-14,1.1064556,86,0.9233307838439941,H3N2
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-2015-16,0.4179324,1238,0.0,H3N2
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-2019-20,1.1381985,929,0.9902693033218384,H3N2
-2020-21,1.3877542,82,1.0,H3N2
-2021-22,1.1520019,5129,0.7569116950035095,H3N2
-2022-23,0.7035982,3827,0.2945549488067627,H3N2
-2023-24,0.9972166,5038,0.597309947013855,H3N2
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+2010-11,0.110103846,143,0.5,H3N2
+2011-12,0.056599915,73,0.0,H3N2
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+2013-14,0.29527736,86,1.0,H3N2
+2014-15,0.29961395,1432,1.0,H3N2
+2015-16,0.10730916,1238,0.20866797864437103,H3N2
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+2021-22,1.0147405,5129,0.8828786015510559,H3N2
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+2023-24,0.77277696,5038,0.6599213480949402,H3N2
+2024-25,0.8550674,6957,0.7357478141784668,H3N2
+2025-26,0.40682745,520,0.32271715998649597,H3N2

results_new/drift_scores_tvae_h1n1.csv

@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm
-2009-10,0.07554422,646,0.5
-2010-11,0.04724936,134,0.0
-2011-12,0.039750215,42,0.0
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-2019-20,0.018880503,2032,0.0635751336812973
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-2022-23,0.0637389,2158,0.22555497288703918
-2023-24,0.028606508,6766,0.09869491308927536
-2024-25,0.030555062,6155,0.10573097318410873
-2025-26,0.010175469,89,0.03214199095964432
+2009-10,0.0009293556,646,0.5
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+2019-20,6.651878e-05,2032,0.004503799136728048
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+2021-22,0.0011442304,105,0.07900809496641159
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+2023-24,0.00018751621,6766,0.012868585996329784
+2024-25,0.0002079606,6155,0.014281947165727615
+2025-26,2.3543835e-05,89,0.0015328575391322374

results_new/drift_scores_tvae_h1n1_lag2.csv

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm
-2010-11,0.028402107,134,0.5
-2011-12,0.008423984,42,0.0
-2012-13,0.14890426,34,1.0
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-2023-24,0.035369888,6766,0.10656998306512833
-2024-25,0.0039695385,6155,0.0
-2025-26,0.020594051,89,0.05915801599621773
+2010-11,7.903576e-05,134,0.5
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+2012-13,0.0045683384,34,1.0
+2013-14,5.00679e-06,112,0.0
+2014-15,0.001369834,140,0.29908567667007446
+2015-16,6.347895e-05,1524,0.012813479639589787
+2016-17,0.014205635,548,1.0
+2017-18,3.838539e-05,1146,0.0023505017161369324
+2018-19,6.490946e-05,2432,0.004218311049044132
+2019-20,0.0002245903,2032,0.015462944284081459
+2020-21,9.101629e-05,12,0.00605673948302865
+2021-22,0.00030213594,105,0.020923662930727005
+2022-23,1.7046928e-05,2158,0.0008478595991618931
+2023-24,0.00026667118,6766,0.018426254391670227
+2024-25,2.6226044e-06,6155,0.0
+2025-26,9.357929e-05,89,0.0064040422439575195

results_new/drift_scores_tvae_h3n2.csv

@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm
-2009-10,0.0003535328,7,0.5
-2010-11,0.00031050987,143,0.0
-2011-12,8.962955e-05,73,0.0
-2012-13,0.0001565494,1091,0.25357720255851746
-2013-14,8.0268146e-05,86,0.0
-2014-15,5.8827474e-05,1432,0.0
-2015-16,4.154179e-05,1238,0.0
-2016-17,0.00029333998,2591,0.8070687055587769
-2017-18,0.00061776827,2414,1.0
-2018-19,0.00062886643,3758,1.0
-2019-20,0.0004390681,929,0.6768425703048706
-2020-21,0.0006096716,82,0.9673182368278503
-2021-22,5.0025777e-05,5129,0.01444514375180006
-2022-23,6.0197977e-05,3827,0.03176469728350639
-2023-24,0.00017702022,5038,0.23067045211791992
-2024-25,0.00010770135,6957,0.11264564841985703
-2025-26,0.00023070055,520,0.3220685124397278
+2009-10,2.3841858e-06,7,0.5
+2010-11,1.9669533e-06,143,0.0
+2011-12,5.9604645e-08,73,0.0
+2012-13,4.7683716e-07,1091,0.1794871836900711
+2013-14,2.3841858e-07,86,0.07692307978868484
+2014-15,1.7881393e-07,1432,0.05128205195069313
+2015-16,5.9604645e-08,1238,0.0
+2016-17,1.3709068e-06,2591,0.5641025900840759
+2017-18,7.2717667e-06,2414,1.0
+2018-19,7.688999e-06,3758,1.0
+2019-20,3.993511e-06,929,0.515625
+2020-21,6.4969063e-06,82,0.84375
+2021-22,5.9604645e-08,5129,0.0
+2022-23,0.0,3827,0.0
+2023-24,5.9604645e-07,5038,0.07751937955617905
+2024-25,2.9802322e-07,6957,0.03875968977808952
+2025-26,1.0728836e-06,520,0.13953489065170288

results_new/drift_scores_tvae_h3n2_lag2.csv

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm
-2010-11,0.00015037149,143,0.5
-2011-12,0.00031841837,73,1.0
-2012-13,0.00018724642,1091,0.21943239867687225
-2013-14,0.00017172155,86,0.12704823911190033
-2014-15,0.00011626752,1432,0.0
-2015-16,6.418879e-05,1238,0.0
-2016-17,0.00031181047,2591,0.9740080833435059
-2017-18,0.0008550262,2414,1.0
-2018-19,0.00014216737,3758,0.0986025407910347
-2019-20,0.0003588167,929,0.372551828622818
-2020-21,0.0010027249,82,1.0
-2021-22,0.0006505205,5129,0.6247300505638123
-2022-23,8.6859385e-05,3827,0.024155274033546448
-2023-24,0.00016098697,5038,0.10313740372657776
-2024-25,0.00020776421,6957,0.1529780626296997
-2025-26,0.00019532538,520,0.13972461223602295
+2010-11,4.172325e-07,143,0.5
+2011-12,2.0861626e-06,73,1.0
+2012-13,5.9604645e-07,1091,0.1071428582072258
+2013-14,5.364418e-07,86,0.0714285746216774
+2014-15,2.9802322e-07,1432,0.0
+2015-16,2.3841858e-07,1238,0.0
+2016-17,1.7881393e-06,2591,0.8387096524238586
+2017-18,1.3232231e-05,2414,1.0
+2018-19,4.7683716e-07,3758,0.01834862306714058
+2019-20,2.503395e-06,929,0.17431192100048065
+2020-21,1.8179417e-05,82,1.0
+2021-22,7.2717667e-06,5129,0.3920265734195709
+2022-23,5.9604645e-08,3827,0.0
+2023-24,5.364418e-07,5038,0.02631578966975212
+2024-25,9.536743e-07,6957,0.04934210702776909
+2025-26,7.1525574e-07,520,0.03618421033024788

results_new/drift_scores_vae_h1n1.csv

@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
-2009-10,1.450889,646,0.5,H1N1
-2010-11,0.47648925,134,0.0,H1N1
-2011-12,1.2336004,42,0.7770025730133057,H1N1
-2012-13,1.3157514,34,0.8613119721412659,H1N1
-2013-14,0.8870982,112,0.42139682173728943,H1N1
-2014-15,3.229958,140,1.0,H1N1
-2015-16,3.2831442,1524,1.0,H1N1
-2016-17,0.4732456,548,0.0,H1N1
-2017-18,0.85536057,1146,0.13598889112472534,H1N1
-2018-19,0.5509908,2432,0.027668340131640434,H1N1
-2019-20,1.0523428,2032,0.20609183609485626,H1N1
-2020-21,1.0803982,12,0.2160763293504715,H1N1
-2021-22,1.5634476,105,0.3879862427711487,H1N1
-2022-23,0.7888692,2158,0.11232562363147736,H1N1
-2023-24,0.4895367,6766,0.005797757767140865,H1N1
-2024-25,0.92283857,6155,0.16000327467918396,H1N1
-2025-26,0.9356745,89,0.1645713746547699,H1N1
+2009-10,0.011559248,646,0.5,H1N1
+2010-11,0.0010563135,134,0.0,H1N1
+2011-12,0.0069809556,42,0.5640940070152283,H1N1
+2012-13,0.007989705,34,0.6601384878158569,H1N1
+2013-14,0.0036646724,112,0.24834571778774261,H1N1
+2014-15,0.049722493,140,1.0,H1N1
+2015-16,0.052637577,1524,1.0,H1N1
+2016-17,0.0010688901,548,0.00024382070114370435,H1N1
+2017-18,0.0034534931,1146,0.04647384583950043,H1N1
+2018-19,0.0015199184,2432,0.008987855166196823,H1N1
+2019-20,0.005009234,2032,0.07663480937480927,H1N1
+2020-21,0.005769849,12,0.0913807675242424,H1N1
+2021-22,0.01158005,105,0.20402246713638306,H1N1
+2022-23,0.002919197,2158,0.036115508526563644,H1N1
+2023-24,0.0009711981,6766,0.0,H1N1
+2024-25,0.0035988092,6155,0.05085727199912071,H1N1
+2025-26,0.0037314892,89,0.05342528596520424,H1N1

results_new/drift_scores_vae_h1n1_lag2.csv

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
-2010-11,1.6838981,134,0.5,H1N1
-2011-12,1.3985307,42,0.0,H1N1
-2012-13,0.65720874,34,0.0,H1N1
-2013-14,1.6867096,112,1.0,H1N1
-2014-15,3.2757616,140,1.0,H1N1
-2015-16,1.7431369,1524,0.41470545530319214,H1N1
-2016-17,3.3538356,548,1.0,H1N1
-2017-18,1.0407438,1146,0.14222770929336548,H1N1
-2018-19,0.915748,2432,0.09587505459785461,H1N1
-2019-20,1.3699938,2032,0.26432469487190247,H1N1
-2020-21,1.694671,12,0.3847258985042572,H1N1
-2021-22,1.826467,105,0.4336003363132477,H1N1
-2022-23,2.197362,2158,0.5711406469345093,H1N1
-2023-24,0.7682978,6766,0.04119555652141571,H1N1
-2024-25,0.9557269,6155,0.1107005849480629,H1N1
-2025-26,1.4635142,89,0.2990052103996277,H1N1
+2010-11,0.014805198,134,0.5,H1N1
+2011-12,0.008991301,42,0.0,H1N1
+2012-13,0.0020292401,34,0.0,H1N1
+2013-14,0.013143659,112,0.8699479699134827,H1N1
+2014-15,0.051691115,140,1.0,H1N1
+2015-16,0.0142633915,1524,0.24634896218776703,H1N1
+2016-17,0.05461192,548,1.0,H1N1
+2017-18,0.005262673,1146,0.061492353677749634,H1N1
+2018-19,0.0038641691,2432,0.03489607200026512,H1N1
+2019-20,0.0087111,2032,0.12707339227199554,H1N1
+2020-21,0.013545036,12,0.2190035879611969,H1N1
+2021-22,0.016340077,105,0.27215874195098877,H1N1
+2022-23,0.022918582,2158,0.39726656675338745,H1N1
+2023-24,0.003120482,6766,0.02075287513434887,H1N1
+2024-25,0.003859818,6155,0.03481332212686539,H1N1
+2025-26,0.009221911,89,0.13678783178329468,H1N1

results_new/drift_scores_vae_h3n2.csv

@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
-2009-10,1.4049134,7,0.5,H3N2
-2010-11,1.8258564,143,1.0,H3N2
-2011-12,0.696247,73,0.0,H3N2
-2012-13,1.5919019,1091,0.7928889989852905,H3N2
-2013-14,0.6545788,86,0.0,H3N2
-2014-15,0.6625349,1432,0.0067926570773124695,H3N2
-2015-16,0.89752394,1238,0.20741891860961914,H3N2
-2016-17,0.86438394,2591,0.17912502586841583,H3N2
-2017-18,1.2707258,2414,0.5260469317436218,H3N2
-2018-19,2.7668264,3758,1.0,H3N2
-2019-20,2.584583,929,0.9137207269668579,H3N2
-2020-21,2.179456,82,0.7219216823577881,H3N2
-2021-22,0.44372347,5129,0.0,H3N2
-2022-23,1.6073804,3827,0.5009063482284546,H3N2
-2023-24,2.3581033,5038,0.8240615725517273,H3N2
-2024-25,0.55099255,6957,0.04617491364479065,H3N2
-2025-26,2.223808,520,0.7662529945373535,H3N2
+2009-10,0.0070052743,7,0.5,H3N2
+2010-11,0.01200521,143,1.0,H3N2
+2011-12,0.001640141,73,0.0,H3N2
+2012-13,0.008458436,1091,0.6578146815299988,H3N2
+2013-14,0.0014861226,86,0.0,H3N2
+2014-15,0.0013374686,1432,0.0,H3N2
+2015-16,0.0028934479,1238,0.14585836231708527,H3N2
+2016-17,0.002705276,2591,0.12821902334690094,H3N2
+2017-18,0.0051437616,2414,0.3568040132522583,H3N2
+2018-19,0.02551359,3758,1.0,H3N2
+2019-20,0.021522343,929,0.8349095582962036,H3N2
+2020-21,0.01629734,82,0.6187871098518372,H3N2
+2021-22,0.00073957443,5129,0.0,H3N2
+2022-23,0.00878793,3827,0.32487085461616516,H3N2
+2023-24,0.01919216,5038,0.7448362708091736,H3N2
+2024-25,0.0010008216,6957,0.010545209050178528,H3N2
+2025-26,0.016462147,520,0.6346396803855896,H3N2

results_new/drift_scores_vae_h3n2_lag2.csv

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
-2010-11,1.9789968,143,0.5,H3N2
-2011-12,1.709227,73,0.0,H3N2
-2012-13,1.8436772,1091,0.4983886480331421,H3N2
-2013-14,1.8113673,86,0.3786202669143677,H3N2
-2014-15,1.0837392,1432,0.0,H3N2
-2015-16,0.7172883,1238,0.0,H3N2
-2016-17,1.1230145,2591,0.3215688467025757,H3N2
-2017-18,1.4976808,2414,0.6185204386711121,H3N2
-2018-19,2.3151217,3758,1.0,H3N2
-2019-20,2.1844294,929,0.9182065725326538,H3N2
-2020-21,2.78988,82,1.0,H3N2
-2021-22,2.4169571,5129,0.8200693130493164,H3N2
-2022-23,1.4693893,3827,0.3628794550895691,H3N2
-2023-24,2.3643763,5038,0.7946996688842773,H3N2
-2024-25,2.4012733,6957,0.8125020265579224,H3N2
-2025-26,2.3937602,520,0.8088770508766174,H3N2
+2010-11,0.014244914,143,0.5,H3N2
+2011-12,0.01103425,73,0.0,H3N2
+2012-13,0.0117957,1091,0.23716259002685547,H3N2
+2013-14,0.011209428,86,0.0545613169670105,H3N2
+2014-15,0.0039063096,1432,0.0,H3N2
+2015-16,0.00179106,1238,0.0,H3N2
+2016-17,0.004705727,2591,0.2340373545885086,H3N2
+2017-18,0.0076680183,2414,0.47189876437187195,H3N2
+2018-19,0.017674148,3758,1.0,H3N2
+2019-20,0.015515804,929,0.8641105890274048,H3N2
+2020-21,0.026041567,82,1.0,H3N2
+2021-22,0.020148516,5129,0.7569926381111145,H3N2
+2022-23,0.007463753,3827,0.2339206039905548,H3N2
+2023-24,0.018871784,5038,0.7043450474739075,H3N2
+2024-25,0.019896269,6957,0.7465909123420715,H3N2
+2025-26,0.019105077,520,0.713965117931366,H3N2

results_new/full_model_comparison.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 Model,Split,RMSE,MAE,r,rho
-DiffAE lag-1,Calib,22.323976096464357,18.37691602706909,0.6143652101381859,0.4637130167514838
-DiffAE lag-1,Valid,13.815013664970625,11.274404907226563,0.8629677995938464,0.19999999999999998
-DiffAE lag-1,All,19.495862051808132,15.64518098097581,0.7065316795356926,0.47476573641351993
-VAE lag-1,Calib,20.994241940491616,17.291990375518797,0.7985955756353638,0.5182674893104819
-VAE lag-1,Valid,13.73875935241444,10.966592254638673,0.944342027010121,0.3
-VAE lag-1,All,18.54274293037358,14.859144944411055,0.8191697197130399,0.6782367663050285
-TVAE lag-1,Calib,46.39452823340632,34.32749710083008,-0.5370477214378062,-0.39440531887330776
-TVAE lag-1,Valid,51.701306168627035,47.813266372680665,-0.6972367352244174,-0.49999999999999994
-TVAE lag-1,All,48.50435610708133,39.51433143615722,-0.5879045814014945,-0.5363122060808064
-DiffAE lag-2,Calib,16.686105962260395,13.50258388519287,0.7987281701503464,0.5182674893104819
-DiffAE lag-2,Valid,137.1875765366478,83.99670349121092,-0.9313202453742727,-0.7999999999999999
-DiffAE lag-2,All,86.08116243382585,40.615706810584435,-0.1297172055494738,0.33911838315251425
-DiffAE combined,Calib,22.680703796461295,18.513486862182617,0.578401462391103,0.4364357804719847
-DiffAE combined,Valid,27.53017405515883,22.102867126464844,-0.3940645126733101,-0.6
-DiffAE combined,All,24.659008363553177,19.894017733060398,0.4391125341313591,0.31085851788980473
+DiffAE lag-1,Calib,24.453047715751815,20.8268985748291,0.4805652629575084,0.32732683535398854
+DiffAE lag-1,Valid,45.613358530068346,41.47363090515137,0.5199037494883089,0.051298917604257706
+DiffAE lag-1,All,34.17883366902508,28.767949471106895,0.19729320726945393,-0.12735463688844548
+VAE lag-1,Calib,21.27963731355251,17.07371435165405,0.825050977249249,0.627376434428478
+VAE lag-1,Valid,15.817885401639272,13.775167694091797,0.8402969018651129,0.3
+VAE lag-1,All,19.36215818880429,15.805042560283953,0.8134943844640508,0.6330209818846932
+TVAE lag-1,Calib,46.39452823340613,34.32750282287598,-0.5370477214378062,-0.39440531887330776
+TVAE lag-1,Valid,40.22642849598766,36.660963439941405,-0.0680930014789966,0.7
+TVAE lag-1,All,44.12433982745768,35.224987675593454,-0.32861010759527765,0.0946433304848482
+DiffAE lag-2,Calib,15.33315413227114,11.644674205780028,0.8332667156690649,0.5182674893104819
+DiffAE lag-2,Valid,76.04158434283927,54.98284149169922,-0.9075449941307687,-0.7999999999999999
+DiffAE lag-2,All,48.66878455595186,28.31320008497972,0.05845559868325538,0.31085851788980473
+DiffAE combined,Calib,46.39452823340613,34.32750282287598,-0.5370477214378062,-0.39440531887330776
+DiffAE combined,Valid,61.6530979642301,57.709837436676025,0.16876092254588715,0.35355339059327373
+DiffAE combined,All,52.787775714092476,43.3207084435683,-0.48405546729360127,-0.3335621924974955

results_new/latent_diversity_diffae_h3n2.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,latent_spread,latent_spread_std,latent_var_trace,n_sequences
-2008-09,0.347987,0.17535543,0.1524878694887088,237
-2009-10,0.9072131,0.46394444,1.2113266381031922,7
-2010-11,0.5297071,0.48135176,0.5158967936746626,143
+2008-09,0.347987,0.17535543,0.1524878753025316,237
+2009-10,0.90721303,0.4639445,1.2113266381031922,7
+2010-11,0.5297071,0.48135173,0.5158967894301156,143
 2011-12,0.6694304,0.45950186,0.668435630424155,73
-2012-13,0.58300686,0.30533922,0.4335264004912621,1091
-2013-14,0.54057443,0.13682966,0.3146012149692702,86
-2014-15,0.5508577,0.30058625,0.3940715162082394,1432
-2015-16,0.8517246,0.1739838,0.7563161165015607,1238
-2016-17,0.7739091,0.28207153,0.6787616335243939,2591
-2017-18,0.6439014,0.42344764,0.5941629967216406,2414
-2018-19,0.8192312,0.33510643,0.7836446958219159,3758
-2019-20,0.81788504,0.25054094,0.7324951710144255,929
+2012-13,0.58300686,0.3053392,0.4335263990244395,1091
+2013-14,0.54057443,0.13682967,0.3146012225135144,86
+2014-15,0.5508578,0.30058613,0.39407152051934646,1432
+2015-16,0.8517246,0.17398377,0.7563161165979323,1238
+2016-17,0.7739091,0.28207147,0.6787616314370017,2591
+2017-18,0.64390117,0.42344794,0.5941629964172117,2414
+2018-19,0.8192312,0.33510643,0.7836446972267441,3758
+2019-20,0.81788504,0.25054094,0.7324951690819379,929
 2020-21,0.4543805,0.1872162,0.24449315948622538,82
 2021-22,0.5339615,0.2853101,0.3665882131894259,5129
 2022-23,0.5956991,0.27208915,0.42900196133832713,3827

results_new/latent_diversity_tvae_h3n2.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,latent_spread,latent_spread_std,latent_var_trace,n_sequences
-2008-09,7.930055e-05,0.00014011178,2.602971489239697e-08,237
+2008-09,7.9300036e-05,0.00014011207,2.602971489239697e-08,237
 2009-10,0.0005705773,0.00033778843,5.129360324818144e-07,7
-2010-11,0.000305698,0.00087541394,8.65855835666633e-07,143
-2011-12,0.00028070487,0.00034157932,1.9818654396098406e-07,73
-2012-13,0.0002510564,0.0004670653,2.8143721146455623e-07,1091
-2013-14,0.00012766756,8.5187625e-05,2.3833066738239053e-08,86
-2014-15,9.801795e-05,8.96034e-05,1.7648526581039216e-08,1432
-2015-16,0.00015138484,0.00011117059,3.5304784081098516e-08,1238
-2016-17,0.00047009284,0.0004936042,4.648117626382925e-07,2591
-2017-18,0.0004296616,0.0005661929,5.053923777568331e-07,2414
-2018-19,0.00044083002,0.00029988887,2.8433996665341996e-07,3758
-2019-20,0.00057469093,0.00012664954,3.466829831952315e-07,929
+2010-11,0.00030569764,0.0008754141,8.658558356666331e-07,143
+2011-12,0.0002807052,0.00034157909,1.9818654396098403e-07,73
+2012-13,0.00025108585,0.00046704983,2.8143721146455634e-07,1091
+2013-14,0.00012766742,8.518785e-05,2.383306673823905e-08,86
+2014-15,9.80178e-05,8.960367e-05,1.764852658103922e-08,1432
+2015-16,0.0001513847,0.0001111708,3.530478408109851e-08,1238
+2016-17,0.00047002488,0.00049366924,4.6481176263829245e-07,2591
+2017-18,0.00042964402,0.00056620635,5.05392377756833e-07,2414
+2018-19,0.00044081,0.0002999185,2.843399666534199e-07,3758
+2019-20,0.00057469,0.00012665374,3.4668298319523156e-07,929
 2020-21,8.5427695e-05,0.00016032775,3.341029945842962e-08,82
 2021-22,9.679496e-05,0.00014286311,2.978427996750329e-08,5129
 2022-23,0.000118606855,0.00015142615,3.70067557509334e-08,3827

results_new/latent_diversity_vae_h3n2.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,latent_spread,latent_spread_std,latent_var_trace,n_sequences
-2008-09,1.1181062,0.45252684,1.461107070932599,237
-2009-10,2.789356,1.1115388,10.51869599741131,7
-2010-11,2.154007,0.77886903,5.2833296510343635,143
-2011-12,2.085116,0.94465184,5.3128537540551575,73
-2012-13,1.4297532,0.61995405,2.430765025700416,1091
-2013-14,1.344742,0.4823161,2.064971179391212,86
-2014-15,1.2799008,0.57077575,1.9653036032742826,1432
-2015-16,1.7439564,0.39557454,3.2004481845719157,1238
-2016-17,1.6629968,0.5196128,3.036727832221204,2591
-2017-18,1.563188,0.8057997,3.0941512985660093,2414
-2018-19,1.9605093,0.8083043,4.498149516783052,3758
-2019-20,1.7020738,0.62488127,3.2910740868459616,929
+2008-09,1.1181061,0.4525268,1.4611071439171985,237
+2009-10,2.789356,1.1115389,10.51869599741131,7
+2010-11,2.154007,0.77886915,5.283329676710073,143
+2011-12,2.0851157,0.94465184,5.312853754055158,73
+2012-13,1.4297531,0.61995405,2.430765032928371,1091
+2013-14,1.3447421,0.48231575,2.0649712086230574,86
+2014-15,1.2799011,0.5707753,1.965303589500262,1432
+2015-16,1.7439562,0.39557502,3.2004482361981337,1238
+2016-17,1.6629968,0.5196129,3.0367278305134584,2591
+2017-18,1.5631871,0.80580133,3.0941512852831887,2414
+2018-19,1.9605093,0.80830425,4.498149497081549,3758
+2019-20,1.7020738,0.6248811,3.291074130282821,929
 2020-21,1.409919,0.53167903,2.298585792477243,82
 2021-22,1.4070408,0.5941305,2.333209929302637,5129
 2022-23,1.6019987,0.5715492,2.8938246012376405,3827

results_new/sirc_params_diffae.csv

@@ -1,11 +1,11 @@
 ,0
-beta,0.4838982820510864
-sigma_inv,147.46897888183594
-delta_min,0.011883491650223732
-delta_max,0.043336931616067886
-k_map,2.7173590660095215
-S0_base,0.44527938961982727
+beta,0.4139403700828552
+sigma_inv,39.61676025390625
+delta_min,0.008777824230492115
+delta_max,0.14170865714550018
+k_map,0.6789180040359497
+S0_base,0.41266560554504395
 gamma,0.2
 mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
-sigma,0.006781087165466039
-calib_rmse,22.323976516723633
+sigma,0.02524184192727872
+calib_rmse,24.453046798706055

results_new/sirc_params_diffae_combined.csv

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
 ,0
-beta,0.5424668788909912
-sigma_inv,150.30838012695312
-delta_min,0.012006236240267754
-delta_max,0.035744667053222656
-k_map,2.2547357082366943
-S0_base,0.4623243510723114
-calib_rmse,22.680702209472656
+beta,0.47337761521339417
+sigma_inv,139.61973571777344
+delta_min,0.0115370387211442
+delta_max,0.08588424324989319
+k_map,1.8061528205871582
+S0_base,0.43816202878952026
+calib_rmse,46.394527435302734

results_new/sirc_params_diffae_lag2.csv

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
 ,0
-beta,0.5816060304641724
-sigma_inv,129.84268188476562
-delta_min,0.010107805952429771
-delta_max,0.05252006649971008
-k_map,2.1105055809020996
-S0_base,0.457821786403656
-calib_rmse,16.686105728149414
+beta,0.55953049659729
+sigma_inv,150.88345336914062
+delta_min,0.011531926691532135
+delta_max,0.04855962097644806
+k_map,1.4778271913528442
+S0_base,0.4606151282787323
+calib_rmse,15.333155632019043

results_new/sirc_params_tvae.csv

@@ -1,11 +1,11 @@
 ,0
-beta,0.45524871349334717
-sigma_inv,132.59384155273438
-delta_min,0.011663076467812061
-delta_max,0.09564283490180969
-k_map,1.5769283771514893
-S0_base,0.4341738522052765
+beta,0.4747428894042969
+sigma_inv,140.34988403320312
+delta_min,0.011555270291864872
+delta_max,0.08522973954677582
+k_map,1.795747995376587
+S0_base,0.438698947429657
 gamma,0.2
 mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
-sigma,0.007541828400848364
+sigma,0.007125050418733699
 calib_rmse,46.394527435302734

results_new/sirc_params_vae.csv

@@ -1,11 +1,11 @@
 ,0
-beta,0.49291300773620605
-sigma_inv,139.94638061523438
-delta_min,0.01088887732475996
-delta_max,0.046872518956661224
-k_map,2.833195447921753
-S0_base,0.4437076449394226
+beta,0.5039941668510437
+sigma_inv,138.3162384033203
+delta_min,0.01046446617692709
+delta_max,0.05240003019571304
+k_map,2.807021379470825
+S0_base,0.4452969431877136
 gamma,0.2
 mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
-sigma,0.007145593873909314
-calib_rmse,20.99424171447754
+sigma,0.007229809106607361
+calib_rmse,21.279638290405273

results_new/sirc_simulation_diffae.csv

@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 season,drift_blended,hosp_obs,hosp_sim,delta_used,S0_used
-2010-11,0.0,21.5,36.694496,0.011883491650223732,0.44527938961982727
-2011-12,0.0,8.7,36.694496,0.011883491650223732,0.44527938961982727
-2012-13,0.0,44.0,36.694496,0.011883491650223732,0.44527938961982727
-2013-14,0.0,35.1,36.694496,0.011883491650223732,0.44527938961982727
-2014-15,0.0,64.1,36.694496,0.011883491650223732,0.44527938961982727
-2015-16,0.5695385610461235,31.4,57.390423,0.01869646547863697,0.5307101737767458
-2016-17,0.2637512340545654,62.0,65.05291,0.01272458805729931,0.4848420747280121
-2017-18,0.4429615899920463,102.9,64.4225,0.015324753995729969,0.5117236281186343
-2018-19,0.42957167014479636,63.6,64.97039,0.015049369821419575,0.5097151401415467
-2019-20,0.11433119557797909,66.0,52.42042,0.011970260448164583,0.46242906895652414
-2021-22,0.0011000202596187592,17.5,36.855743,0.011883491937362264,0.44544439265877006
-2022-23,0.4344884544909,62.4,64.776245,0.015148806322566818,0.5104526577934623
-2023-24,0.2393365252017975,83.5,63.809933,0.012529461987287686,0.4811798684000969
+2010-11,0.0,21.5,34.72866,0.008777824230492115,0.41266560554504395
+2011-12,0.0,8.7,34.72866,0.008777824230492115,0.41266560554504395
+2012-13,0.0,44.0,34.72866,0.008777824230492115,0.41266560554504395
+2013-14,0.0,35.1,34.72866,0.008777824230492115,0.41266560554504395
+2014-15,0.0,64.1,34.72866,0.008777824230492115,0.41266560554504395
+2015-16,0.629938108086586,31.4,59.243202,0.10591052052767545,0.5071563217580318
+2016-17,0.7442682960256934,62.0,78.521805,0.11755570345037117,0.524305849948898
+2017-18,0.6278832415938377,102.9,58.921158,0.10569529380091819,0.5068480917841196
+2018-19,0.43213997878134247,63.6,34.116043,0.08398245828005313,0.4774866023622453
+2019-20,0.16953694888949397,66.0,0.0,0.04862150259701668,0.43809614787846807
+2021-22,0.003716663718223572,17.5,0.0,0.011756059707257766,0.4132231051027775
+2022-23,0.3758812240958214,62.4,29.650032,0.07718788080145125,0.46904778915941714
+2023-24,0.2572216870039702,83.5,21.86577,0.06165556929731458,0.45124885859563946

results_new/sirc_simulation_diffae_combined.csv

@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 season,drift_combined,hosp_obs,hosp_sim
-2010-11,0.0,21.5,32.590584
-2011-12,0.0,8.7,32.590584
-2012-13,0.0,44.0,32.590584
-2013-14,0.0,35.1,32.590584
-2014-15,0.0,64.1,32.590584
-2015-16,0.352172490477562,31.4,69.99233
-2016-17,0.22124290466308594,62.0,61.218025
-2017-18,0.4415466879308223,102.9,74.57583
-2018-19,0.4671379625052213,63.6,75.943756
-2019-20,0.1353143928125501,66.0,52.43392
-2021-22,0.3743237052038312,17.5,71.1527
-2022-23,0.37067701368033884,62.4,70.96481
-2023-24,0.22002325545996426,83.5,61.113014
+2010-11,0.0,21.5,34.679977
+2011-12,0.0,8.7,34.679977
+2012-13,0.0,44.0,34.679977
+2013-14,0.0,35.1,34.679977
+2014-15,0.0,64.1,34.679977
+2015-16,0.41024580335617067,31.4,0.0
+2016-17,0.5818160880915821,62.0,0.0
+2017-18,0.6361332353651523,102.9,0.0
+2018-19,0.5403711708262562,63.6,0.0
+2019-20,0.21357834857702257,66.0,4.450813
+2021-22,0.43961748242378235,17.5,0.0
+2022-23,0.43113081440329554,62.4,0.0
+2023-24,0.2894242344424129,83.5,0.0

results_new/sirc_simulation_diffae_lag2.csv

@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 season,drift_blended,hosp_obs,hosp_sim
-2010-11,0.0,21.5,33.423187
-2011-12,0.0,8.7,33.423187
-2012-13,0.0,44.0,33.423187
-2013-14,0.0,35.1,33.423187
-2014-15,0.0,64.1,33.423187
-2015-16,0.1348064199090004,31.4,48.566177
-2016-17,0.17873457527160644,62.0,50.884277
-2017-18,0.44013178586959834,102.9,103.06196
-2018-19,0.5047042548656463,63.6,139.76414
-2019-20,0.15629759004712107,66.0,49.77174
-2021-22,0.7475473901480436,17.5,312.5275
-2022-23,0.30686557286977767,62.4,61.38915
-2023-24,0.20070998571813106,83.5,51.947235
+2010-11,0.0,21.5,34.49826
+2011-12,0.0,8.7,34.49826
+2012-13,0.0,44.0,34.49826
+2013-14,0.0,35.1,34.49826
+2014-15,0.0,64.1,34.49826
+2015-16,0.19055349862575532,31.4,36.094933
+2016-17,0.4193638801574707,62.0,55.047153
+2017-18,0.644383229136467,102.9,105.907875
+2018-19,0.64860236287117,63.6,107.04991
+2019-20,0.2576197482645512,66.0,37.620888
+2021-22,0.8755183011293411,17.5,173.95645
+2022-23,0.48638040471076965,62.4,67.65054
+2023-24,0.3216267818808556,83.5,42.12181

results_new/sirc_simulation_tvae.csv

@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 season,drift_blended,hosp_obs,hosp_sim
-2010-11,0.0,21.5,34.680023
-2011-12,0.0,8.7,34.680023
-2012-13,0.0,44.0,34.680023
-2013-14,0.0,35.1,34.680023
-2014-15,0.0,64.1,34.680023
+2010-11,0.0,21.5,34.679977
+2011-12,0.0,8.7,34.679977
+2012-13,0.0,44.0,34.679977
+2013-14,0.0,35.1,34.679977
+2014-15,0.0,64.1,34.679977
 2015-16,0.545,31.4,0.0
-2016-17,0.60045911693573,62.0,0.0
+2016-17,0.4196923270225525,62.0,0.0
 2017-18,0.597,102.9,0.0
-2018-19,0.4953911876678467,63.6,0.0
-2019-20,0.06150894136726856,66.0,25.820732
-2021-22,0.015528545482084155,17.5,34.697548
-2022-23,0.0859594991877675,62.4,18.14492
-2023-24,0.10955588544160128,83.5,9.665564
+2018-19,0.42168416545726356,63.6,0.0
+2019-20,0.023532142341602592,66.0,36.524757
+2021-22,0.00039504047483205794,17.5,34.734203
+2022-23,0.017873452860862015,62.4,36.292164
+2023-24,0.02709428517241031,83.5,36.612465

results_new/sirc_simulation_vae.csv

@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 season,drift_blended,hosp_obs,hosp_sim
-2010-11,0.0,21.5,40.216057
-2011-12,0.0,8.7,40.216057
-2012-13,0.0,44.0,40.216057
-2013-14,0.0,35.1,40.216057
-2014-15,0.0,64.1,40.216057
-2015-16,0.5769425134658814,31.4,45.547977
-2016-17,0.13326901924610138,62.0,57.59816
-2017-18,0.329008796274662,102.9,66.12995
-2018-19,0.434387536868453,63.6,59.976116
-2019-20,0.14689731477200985,66.0,58.99845
-2021-22,0.0019399312138557434,17.5,40.493042
-2022-23,0.3600548569709063,62.4,65.01018
-2023-24,0.22527375055942686,83.5,64.89569
+2010-11,0.0,21.5,42.340324
+2011-12,0.0,8.7,42.340324
+2012-13,0.0,44.0,42.340324
+2013-14,0.0,35.1,42.340324
+2014-15,0.0,64.1,42.340324
+2015-16,0.5674621877968312,31.4,38.236946
+2016-17,0.09540080506692174,62.0,55.2831
+2017-18,0.21812411895394324,102.9,65.004456
+2018-19,0.42467368468642236,63.6,54.884167
+2019-20,0.07492437566816806,66.0,52.751587
+2021-22,0.0010201123356819153,17.5,42.487175
+2022-23,0.22290292088314892,62.4,65.15117
+2023-24,0.20110579311847687,83.5,64.32675