With Privacy, Size Matters: On the Importance of Dataset Size in Differentially Private Text Rewriting
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NateSilver538
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@BenjySarlin I don't think the end of the campaign helped him either, the Fiorina stunt and the convention for example. But yeah he's probably in a different category than the Rubio underachiever group.
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@BenjySarlin I don't think the end of the campaign helped him either, the Fiorina stunt and the convention for example. But yeah he's probably in a different category than the Rubio underachiever group.
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NateSilver538
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Relatedly it's weird when people say Rubio or Cruz erred by running in 2016. It was one of the more winnable nominations. Trump took a long time to lock it up. Lost Iowa. "Establishment" desperate for an alternative. They had every opportunity but were deeply flawed candidates.
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Relatedly it's weird when people say Rubio or Cruz erred by running in 2016. It was one of the more winnable nominations. Trump took a long time to lock it up. Lost Iowa. "Establishment" desperate for an alternative. They had every opportunity but were deeply flawed candidates.
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NateSilver538
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Also if he's intrinsically a shitty national candidate he's *not* a strong candidate for 2028, or ever. It just postpones the inevitable. Test the product in the market. A "respectable" loss probably helps him in 2028. If he gets totally blown out, he just wasn't up to the task.
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Also if he's intrinsically a shitty national candidate he's *not* a strong candidate for 2028, or ever. It just postpones the inevitable. Test the product in the market. A "respectable" loss probably helps him in 2028. If he gets totally blown out, he just wasn't up to the task.
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NateSilver538
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@SethPartnow Think that's setting the bar a little low? Bidding starts at Bird or Magic IMO.
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@SethPartnow Think that's setting the bar a little low? Bidding starts at Bird or Magic IMO.
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NateSilver538
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Hypothesis: ChatGPT is more likely to cite credible sources (e.g. Pew) when lying/hallucinating; the credibility of the source compensates for its lower overall confidence in the answer. (Humans do this too, of course.)
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Hypothesis: ChatGPT is more likely to cite credible sources (e.g. Pew) when lying/hallucinating; the credibility of the source compensates for its lower overall confidence in the answer. (Humans do this too, of course.)
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NateSilver538
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@billscher Ehh, part of why it looks weak is that there's sort of a self-perpetuating narrative that he's already lost that is way out of step with the fact that his position is still decent, better than ~80-90% of guys who choose to run. It looks like he's scared of his own shadow.
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@billscher Ehh, part of why it looks weak is that there's sort of a self-perpetuating narrative that he's already lost that is way out of step with the fact that his position is still decent, better than ~80-90% of guys who choose to run. It looks like he's scared of his own shadow.
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NateSilver538
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@billscher But right now it looks like he got savaged by Trump and was too much of a chicken to fight back. It's like the worst of all possible worlds for him now. He looks weak to both the Trumpists and the anti-Trumpists.
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@billscher But right now it looks like he got savaged by Trump and was too much of a chicken to fight back. It's like the worst of all possible worlds for him now. He looks weak to both the Trumpists and the anti-Trumpists.
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NateSilver538
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The thing is that if DeSantis doesn't run in 2024 he'll look like a loser who couldn't survive first contact with scrutiny as a national figure. Perceptions of his electoral competence have declined a lot and he'll lock those perceptions in.
https://t.co/5zW7OTWyGd
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The thing is that if DeSantis doesn't run in 2024 he'll look like a loser who couldn't survive first contact with scrutiny as a national figure. Perceptions of his electoral competence have declined a lot and he'll lock those perceptions in.
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NateSilver538
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That was an exceptionally Knicksy Knicks win.
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That was an exceptionally Knicksy Knicks win.
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NateSilver538
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@scott_seiver Feels like GTO is that they give a lavish all-expenses-paid trip to 4 extremely entertaining whales and then auction off the other 4 seats.
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@scott_seiver Feels like GTO is that they give a lavish all-expenses-paid trip to 4 extremely entertaining whales and then auction off the other 4 seats.
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NateSilver538
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Florida is more fiscally conservative than socially conservative and a lot of GOP gains there have come from unmotivated D voters. I'm not sure you can pass an abortion law as strict as the one they just passed without a significant risk of backlash.
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Florida is more fiscally conservative than socially conservative and a lot of GOP gains there have come from unmotivated D voters. I'm not sure you can pass an abortion law as strict as the one they just passed without a significant risk of backlash.
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NateSilver538
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Unless I'm doing this wrong, this is the first year since 1994 when all NYC-area winter sports teams (Knicks, Nets, Rangers, Devils, Islanders) made the playoffs. That was the year the Rangers won the Stanley Cup and the Knicks made the finals.
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Unless I'm doing this wrong, this is the first year since 1994 when all NYC-area winter sports teams (Knicks, Nets, Rangers, Devils, Islanders) made the playoffs. That was the year the Rangers won the Stanley Cup and the Knicks made the finals.
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NateSilver538
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@TheStalwart I'd spend like 10 hours a week on a social media network where people just complain about air travel.
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@TheStalwart I'd spend like 10 hours a week on a social media network where people just complain about air travel.
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NateSilver538
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Borderline All-NBA level to limit teams to 10 free throws below expectation, market value is 4 years/$120 mil or thereabouts.
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Borderline All-NBA level to limit teams to 10 free throws below expectation, market value is 4 years/$120 mil or thereabouts.
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NateSilver538
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This is pretty sweet.
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This is pretty sweet.
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NateSilver538
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@BenjySarlin Yeah, Iike I'm not sure if a technical "soft landing" recession 3Q/4Q 2023 with unemployment still fairly low would matter all that much, but a more severe one obviously could.
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@BenjySarlin Yeah, Iike I'm not sure if a technical "soft landing" recession 3Q/4Q 2023 with unemployment still fairly low would matter all that much, but a more severe one obviously could.
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NateSilver538
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You could convince me that Democrats are decent favorites conditional upon i) no severe recession or other crisis-type atmosphere in 2024 and ii) Biden is the nominee and doesn't suffer obvious further physical or age-related decline. But those are very much are *not* guarantees.
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You could convince me that Democrats are decent favorites conditional upon i) no severe recession or other crisis-type atmosphere in 2024 and ii) Biden is the nominee and doesn't suffer obvious further physical or age-related decline. But those are very much are *not* guarantees.
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NateSilver538
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Seems like we're at the beginnings of a vibe shift toward skepticism of the GOP's 2024 chances. I'm not saying there's nothing there (WI certainly bad for GOP, Trump legal troubles not helpful, DeSantis taking lots of toxic general elex positions) but there's a LONG way to go.
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Seems like we're at the beginnings of a vibe shift toward skepticism of the GOP's 2024 chances. I'm not saying there's nothing there (WI certainly bad for GOP, Trump legal troubles not helpful, DeSantis taking lots of toxic general elex positions) but there's a LONG way to go.
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NateSilver538
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Some of these are a little quirky but overall a fairly strong revealed preference for drier, warmer weather.
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Some of these are a little quirky but overall a fairly strong revealed preference for drier, warmer weather.
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NateSilver538
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In 2020 the Democratic Party nominated noted hard-left ideologue Joe Biden. A healthy political party can broker some disagreement without letting the inmates run the asylum.
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In 2020 the Democratic Party nominated noted hard-left ideologue Joe Biden. A healthy political party can broker some disagreement without letting the inmates run the asylum.
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NateSilver538
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Congratulations to the national champion Quinnipiac Fightin' Pollsters!
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Congratulations to the national champion Quinnipiac Fightin' Pollsters!
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NateSilver538
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@redrock_bball If I were Adam Silver I'd probably strip the Blazers of a couple of 2nd round picks too tbh, they're the next-most-egregious example.
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@redrock_bball If I were Adam Silver I'd probably strip the Blazers of a couple of 2nd round picks too tbh, they're the next-most-egregious example.
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NateSilver538
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@redrock_bball I guess I'd say:
* I think it would be good for the league to set a precedent that egregious tanking will be punished.
* DAL has done nothing to make their case more sympathetic so if you're going to make an example out of someone—the optics matter.
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@redrock_bball I guess I'd say:
* I think it would be good for the league to set a precedent that egregious tanking will be punished.
* DAL has done nothing to make their case more sympathetic so if you're going to make an example out of someone—the optics matter.
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NateSilver538
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@redrock_bball I mean there are definitely teams that will punt on a nontrivial chance of making the play-in with a few weeks to go, something intuitively seems different though when you punt an elimination game.
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@redrock_bball I mean there are definitely teams that will punt on a nontrivial chance of making the play-in with a few weeks to go, something intuitively seems different though when you punt an elimination game.
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NateSilver538
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@redrock_bball Basically if you don't give at least a moderately severe punishment it's a clear signal that absolutely anything goes.
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@redrock_bball Basically if you don't give at least a moderately severe punishment it's a clear signal that absolutely anything goes.
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NateSilver538
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@redrock_bball I felt that way originally but has it been done by a team with such a clear path to the playoffs/play-in? Also the aesthetics of it are really bad, teams usually make a better pretense of basketball-related reasons. And there's something to be said for deterring future offenses.
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@redrock_bball I felt that way originally but has it been done by a team with such a clear path to the playoffs/play-in? Also the aesthetics of it are really bad, teams usually make a better pretense of basketball-related reasons. And there's something to be said for deterring future offenses.
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NateSilver538
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Imagine if:
* Adam Silver rules that Knicks get the Mavs' pick regardless of where it lands.
* Knicks get Wemby
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Imagine if:
* Adam Silver rules that Knicks get the Mavs' pick regardless of where it lands.
* Knicks get Wemby
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NateSilver538
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@AlecMacGillis I've started to think of New England as analogous to a medium-sized rich European country (maybe Scandinavia or Benelux). Its outcomes have begin to diverge from the rest of the US in lots of weird ways (e.g. higher life expectancy, less partisanship, fared better under COVID).
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@AlecMacGillis I've started to think of New England as analogous to a medium-sized rich European country (maybe Scandinavia or Benelux). Its outcomes have begin to diverge from the rest of the US in lots of weird ways (e.g. higher life expectancy, less partisanship, fared better under COVID).
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NateSilver538
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@LawMurrayTheNU @NateDuncanNBA I didn't think it was physically possible to tank harder than Dallas did last night but tanking so hard that you bench Drew Eubanks might actually qualify.
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@LawMurrayTheNU @NateDuncanNBA I didn't think it was physically possible to tank harder than Dallas did last night but tanking so hard that you bench Drew Eubanks might actually qualify.
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NateSilver538
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"Shockingly" the Bulls came back from 13 at halftime. 2H Mavs effort befitting of the Washington Generals, eliminating them from the playoffs with one of the world's best players sitting on the bench. Time to change this. Sports suck when teams have flagrant incentives to lose.
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"Shockingly" the Bulls came back from 13 at halftime. 2H Mavs effort befitting of the Washington Generals, eliminating them from the playoffs with one of the world's best players sitting on the bench. Time to change this. Sports suck when teams have flagrant incentives to lose.
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NateSilver538
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@BenjySarlin I guess he bought into it though? It's just so weird! "Luka plays 1.01 quarters in an extremely winnable elimination game and everyone else sits out" doesn't seem like it's ever a good solution.
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@BenjySarlin I guess he bought into it though? It's just so weird! "Luka plays 1.01 quarters in an extremely winnable elimination game and everyone else sits out" doesn't seem like it's ever a good solution.
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NateSilver538
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@MattGlassman312 I'm coming around to this idea where every team gets the 1st pick once every 30 years. Teams can still trade present assets for future ones but there's no longer any incentive to lose games. https://t.co/K6BYru93Lf
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@MattGlassman312 I'm coming around to this idea where every team gets the 1st pick once every 30 years. Teams can still trade present assets for future ones but there's no longer any incentive to lose games.
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NateSilver538
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They're winning the game! They're in playoff contention (narrow path but not *that* narrow, maybe a 30-40% chance of making the play-in). There's no pretense of an injury. He's one of the 5 best players in the league. IDK, doesn't seem like a remotely sustainable equilibrium.
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They're winning the game! They're in playoff contention (narrow path but not *that* narrow, maybe a 30-40% chance of making the play-in). There's no pretense of an injury. He's one of the 5 best players in the league. IDK, doesn't seem like a remotely sustainable equilibrium.
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NateSilver538
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I think the bizareness of all of this might finally cause the NBA to take a harder look at punitive measures for tanking. Not saying you can/should punish DAL when it's been anything goes, but set some sort of standards and expectations going forward.
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I think the bizareness of all of this might finally cause the NBA to take a harder look at punitive measures for tanking. Not saying you can/should punish DAL when it's been anything goes, but set some sort of standards and expectations going forward.
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NateSilver538
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This is the first known instance of a Schrödinger's Tank (Mavs simultaneously trying to make the play-in and finish in the bottom 10 so they keep their draft pick).
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This is the first known instance of a Schrödinger's Tank (Mavs simultaneously trying to make the play-in and finish in the bottom 10 so they keep their draft pick).
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NateSilver538
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@NateDuncanNBA Worse than last year?
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@NateDuncanNBA Worse than last year?
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NateSilver538
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@benryanwriter Yeah, who cares. It's conveying a certain impression that you may or may not want to convey, but weeknight unpaid cable news hits for a company you don't work for aren't exactly a special occasion.
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@benryanwriter Yeah, who cares. It's conveying a certain impression that you may or may not want to convey, but weeknight unpaid cable news hits for a company you don't work for aren't exactly a special occasion.
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NateSilver538
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How many of the 30 NBA teams are currently trying to win? Maybe 10? ~10 are tanking, ~10 have their playoff seed locked up and are "load managing", and by the end of the week we may get a couple who are trying to get a worse seed to get a better matchup (e.g. Sacramento). https://t.co/DYexxwSm8g
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How many of the 30 NBA teams are currently trying to win? Maybe 10? ~10 are tanking, ~10 have their playoff seed locked up and are "load managing", and by the end of the week we may get a couple who are trying to get a worse seed to get a better matchup (e.g. Sacramento).
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NateSilver538
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One poll I'd watch instead is the Gallup survey asking people about their most important issue. Currently, AI is at <<1%. If that category starts to get a pulse, i.e. even polling at 1-2% (climate change = 3-4%), a sign concern has gone mainstream.
https://t.co/UdQsAjCjtT https://t.co/2sagvHOsGQ
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One poll I'd watch instead is the Gallup survey asking people about their most important issue. Currently, AI is at <<1%. If that category starts to get a pulse, i.e. even polling at 1-2% (climate change = 3-4%), a sign concern has gone mainstream.
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NateSilver538
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If you poll a question, people may feel compelled to answer, but they often just infer information from the question prompt. If people have weak priors on AI risk, the mere fact that a credible survey is polling on it may cause them to say "hmm I guess I should be concerned".
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If you poll a question, people may feel compelled to answer, but they often just infer information from the question prompt. If people have weak priors on AI risk, the mere fact that a credible survey is polling on it may cause them to say "hmm I guess I should be concerned".
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NateSilver538
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I've had a couple of people ask me about this poll showing that 46% of Americans are concerned about AI destroying humanity. I sort of wouldn't take it literally because I doubt people have spent much time thinking about it.
https://t.co/zSM8DFuTwc https://t.co/BZM2wmT8Ef
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I've had a couple of people ask me about this poll showing that 46% of Americans are concerned about AI destroying humanity. I sort of wouldn't take it literally because I doubt people have spent much time thinking about it.
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NateSilver538
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@TheZvi I think "having a good bullshit detector for problems with statistical inference" maybe fits here.
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@TheZvi I think "having a good bullshit detector for problems with statistical inference" maybe fits here.
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NateSilver538
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The test of whether the media is doing Too Much Trump (and I'm generally sympathetic toward that critique) is *really not* on the day he's indicted for a potential felony, that's just about the worst possible example to make the case.
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The test of whether the media is doing Too Much Trump (and I'm generally sympathetic toward that critique) is *really not* on the day he's indicted for a potential felony, that's just about the worst possible example to make the case.
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NateSilver538
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The Democratic primary electorate has shown much more of an immune response to reject crazy candidates than the Republican one and I tend to think that Bannon is projecting and doesn't understand that.
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The Democratic primary electorate has shown much more of an immune response to reject crazy candidates than the Republican one and I tend to think that Bannon is projecting and doesn't understand that.
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NateSilver538
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He'll cultivate weirdos more successfully than Marianne Williamson but you have to be delusional to think it's a serious candidacy.
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He'll cultivate weirdos more successfully than Marianne Williamson but you have to be delusional to think it's a serious candidacy.
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NateSilver538
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@MattGlassman312 I also wonder about the chance that ChatGPT could regurgitate an entire passage from another text and you wind up unintentionally plagiarizing. Another reason to be careful about doing that IMO.
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@MattGlassman312 I also wonder about the chance that ChatGPT could regurgitate an entire passage from another text and you wind up unintentionally plagiarizing. Another reason to be careful about doing that IMO.
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NateSilver538
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@MattGlassman312 Yeah, at this point it's more sort of like the combination of Grammarly and a research assistant. And you'd hopefully think your RA, but not on a passage-by-passage basis. What IDK about is if you're using long blocks of text verbatim from ChatGPT, though I'm not doing that.
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@MattGlassman312 Yeah, at this point it's more sort of like the combination of Grammarly and a research assistant. And you'd hopefully think your RA, but not on a passage-by-passage basis. What IDK about is if you're using long blocks of text verbatim from ChatGPT, though I'm not doing that.
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NateSilver538
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@davewiner @mikebutcher Yeah, you can ask it for sources but IDK how reliable those sources are. I pretty much need 99% odds that the claim is accurate if it's for a minor, unattributed claim in the book and ~100% if it's for an important, attributed one, so I wind up having to double check it myself.
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@davewiner @mikebutcher Yeah, you can ask it for sources but IDK how reliable those sources are. I pretty much need 99% odds that the claim is accurate if it's for a minor, unattributed claim in the book and ~100% if it's for an important, attributed one, so I wind up having to double check it myself.
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NateSilver538
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@davewiner I gave it my definition then asked it to refine it, but then also asked for its own definition from scratch, then sort of combined them but tweaked the terminology to better fit into the language I'd already introduced in the book.
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@davewiner I gave it my definition then asked it to refine it, but then also asked for its own definition from scratch, then sort of combined them but tweaked the terminology to better fit into the language I'd already introduced in the book.
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NateSilver538
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Ordinarily if there was one source that was particularly helpful in idea refinement, I'd find a way to cite it in the endnotes, even if there was no one single discrete idea or quote from it. But ChatGPT isn't one source, it's more like the aggregate of many sources!
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Ordinarily if there was one source that was particularly helpful in idea refinement, I'd find a way to cite it in the endnotes, even if there was no one single discrete idea or quote from it. But ChatGPT isn't one source, it's more like the aggregate of many sources!
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NateSilver538
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Are we supposed to cite ChatGPT?
Example: working on an approachable but reasonably precise definition of game theory midway through a book chapter on poker. GPT very helpful in getting me there, though I'm not using it verbatim. Should I cite? What if I *did* use verbatim?
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Are we supposed to cite ChatGPT?
Example: working on an approachable but reasonably precise definition of game theory midway through a book chapter on poker. GPT very helpful in getting me there, though I'm not using it verbatim. Should I cite? What if I *did* use verbatim?
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NateSilver538
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(It's von Neumann in 1955.)
https://t.co/RIdUDoMNWR
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(It's von Neumann in 1955.)
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NateSilver538
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This is pretty good on AI risk. https://t.co/gdIdbT5lJD
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This is pretty good on AI risk.
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NateSilver538
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So under the best of circumstances, Trump is able to battle things to a draw, with a big assist from (d). But elections that Trump "looms over" that don't involve Trump himself (2018, 2020 GA runoffs, 2022, 2023 WI) have gone really badly for the GOP.
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So under the best of circumstances, Trump is able to battle things to a draw, with a big assist from (d). But elections that Trump "looms over" that don't involve Trump himself (2018, 2020 GA runoffs, 2022, 2023 WI) have gone really badly for the GOP.
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NateSilver538
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I read this more asymmetrically. Trump (a) turns off swing voters and (b) motivates Dems. In exchange, he (c) motivates his base who have (d) disproportionate influence in the Senate & Electoral College. But (c) seems to go away when Trump himself isn't on the ballot.
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I read this more asymmetrically. Trump (a) turns off swing voters and (b) motivates Dems. In exchange, he (c) motivates his base who have (d) disproportionate influence in the Senate & Electoral College. But (c) seems to go away when Trump himself isn't on the ballot.
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NateSilver538
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Between the midterms and Wisconsin tonight it looks increasingly clear that voters are responsive to anti-democratic policies. It may all that many voters in raw numbers but it's enough to change the outcome of elections in key swing state races.
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Between the midterms and Wisconsin tonight it looks increasingly clear that voters are responsive to anti-democratic policies. It may all that many voters in raw numbers but it's enough to change the outcome of elections in key swing state races.
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NateSilver538
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That didn't take long we're now experiencing fast takeoff of AI as a political issue. https://t.co/Vv4KTCsq0u
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That didn't take long we're now experiencing fast takeoff of AI as a political issue.
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NateSilver538
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We're blogging straight through the day including the Wisconsin and Chicago elections tonight. https://t.co/mUrJclTOLR
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We're blogging straight through the day including the Wisconsin and Chicago elections tonight.
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NateSilver538
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@robbysoave Don't think it's too hard to think of ways this time could be different. Economists think a recession is reasonably likely. Biden is 81 years old and could show his age in e.g. the debates. Maybe D turnout isn't as high. Maybe there's a WH scandal or some foreign policy blunder.
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@robbysoave Don't think it's too hard to think of ways this time could be different. Economists think a recession is reasonably likely. Biden is 81 years old and could show his age in e.g. the debates. Maybe D turnout isn't as high. Maybe there's a WH scandal or some foreign policy blunder.
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NateSilver538
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FWIW though I think Dems probably also overestimate the electability gap between Trump and other Republicans (or at least other ones who could plausibly be nominated). Trump didn't lose by *that* much last time amidst the worst pandemic in a century.
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FWIW though I think Dems probably also overestimate the electability gap between Trump and other Republicans (or at least other ones who could plausibly be nominated). Trump didn't lose by *that* much last time amidst the worst pandemic in a century.
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NateSilver538
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To some extent this is the same thing as Democrats interfering in GOP primaries against e.g. Peter Meijer. If you're just fixated on maximizing your chances of winning the next election, you're not really concerned about the big picture or the long-term consequences.
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To some extent this is the same thing as Democrats interfering in GOP primaries against e.g. Peter Meijer. If you're just fixated on maximizing your chances of winning the next election, you're not really concerned about the big picture or the long-term consequences.
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NateSilver538
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Some folks got mad a few weeks ago when I mentioned that certain high-ranking Democrats seemed to be rooting for Trump in the GOP primary, but now there's reporting that high-ranking Democrats are openly rooting for Trump! https://t.co/pL1LpNQBgZ https://t.co/TCVMA3jfBz
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Some folks got mad a few weeks ago when I mentioned that certain high-ranking Democrats seemed to be rooting for Trump in the GOP primary, but now there's reporting that high-ranking Democrats are openly rooting for Trump!
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NateSilver538
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@BillyM2k I think there's a lot of people who find Trump endlessly fascinating? IDK, there are a lot of tastes that I don't understand! To be fair, though, his Google search traffic is much lower, so it may be more among news junkies than the general public. https://t.co/nf6sWHfF0G
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@BillyM2k I think there's a lot of people who find Trump endlessly fascinating? IDK, there are a lot of tastes that I don't understand! To be fair, though, his Google search traffic is much lower, so it may be more among news junkies than the general public.
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NateSilver538
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Yeah, today's really newsworthy. I think it's more understandable annoyance upon the recognition that the same guy who's dominated the American political news cycle since 2015 will continue to do so for at least another year or so.
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Yeah, today's really newsworthy. I think it's more understandable annoyance upon the recognition that the same guy who's dominated the American political news cycle since 2015 will continue to do so for at least another year or so.
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NateSilver538
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I guess we're never going to teach people not to make super overconfident predictions.
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I guess we're never going to teach people not to make super overconfident predictions.
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NateSilver538
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@TheZvi I do sorta wonder about ML methods for picking up on (verbal or visual) poker tells, I'd think it would be quite good with the right training set?
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@TheZvi I do sorta wonder about ML methods for picking up on (verbal or visual) poker tells, I'd think it would be quite good with the right training set?
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NateSilver538
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@TheZvi Yeah, consensus in the comments seems to be "not a trivial ask but you could do it now if specially built for this purpose, would be clumsy at some tasks and might need special accommodations, probably just a matter of time before all this gets solved, though."
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@TheZvi Yeah, consensus in the comments seems to be "not a trivial ask but you could do it now if specially built for this purpose, would be clumsy at some tasks and might need special accommodations, probably just a matter of time before all this gets solved, though."
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NateSilver538
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@jonathanchait Which party is more reliant on voters who have demonstrated skill at voting strategically to win elections? I think that's pretty clear too. People aren't making these decisions in a vacuum. 3rd party support varies greatly based on whether a candidate is seen as viable or not.
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@jonathanchait Which party is more reliant on voters who have demonstrated skill at voting strategically to win elections? I think that's pretty clear too. People aren't making these decisions in a vacuum. 3rd party support varies greatly based on whether a candidate is seen as viable or not.
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NateSilver538
|
If:
+10 = a No Labels candidate would greatly hurt Biden
-10 = a No Labels candidate would greatly help Biden
0 = we have no clue and/or it wouldn't matter much
I'm like +2 or a +3. Reasonable to have a weakly-held prior but some commentary is getting ahead of the evidence.
|
If:
+10 = a No Labels candidate would greatly hurt Biden
-10 = a No Labels candidate would greatly help Biden
0 = we have no clue and/or it wouldn't matter much
I'm like +2 or a +3. Reasonable to have a weakly-held prior but some commentary is getting ahead of the evidence.
| -1
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NateSilver538
|
Not sure I get the 13-dimensional chess of a Democratic Super PAC releasing opposition research on Republicans **during the Republican primary** but the practical effect is gonna be to help Trump since it's hard to have worse oppo on him than the stuff that's already out there.
|
Not sure I get the 13-dimensional chess of a Democratic Super PAC releasing opposition research on Republicans **during the Republican primary** but the practical effect is gonna be to help Trump since it's hard to have worse oppo on him than the stuff that's already out there.
| -1
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NateSilver538
|
@BillyM2k I was trying to see if it could recognize facial expressions and it was kind of bad at it (17 out of 36 on the test below, human average is 22), maybe (like me) it spends too much time thinking about baseball!
https://t.co/TlUMLgknD7
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@BillyM2k I was trying to see if it could recognize facial expressions and it was kind of bad at it (17 out of 36 on the test below, human average is 22), maybe (like me) it spends too much time thinking about baseball!
| -1
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NateSilver538
|
This is interesting, Chat GPT-4 (left) refuses to describe an image, whereas 3.5 does (right) although gets some things wrong (it's a Marlins jersey, not Mariners!). https://t.co/7NggHd0wW4
|
This is interesting, Chat GPT-4 (left) refuses to describe an image, whereas 3.5 does (right) although gets some things wrong (it's a Marlins jersey, not Mariners!).
| -1
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NateSilver538
|
@hardboiledpoker I've never seen this clip, lol!
|
@hardboiledpoker I've never seen this clip, lol!
| 1
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NateSilver538
|
@JonathanLittle I knock my stacks over about 5 times per tournament so if RoboPio can keep its chips in neat 20-stacks I'm going to be totally jealous.
|
@JonathanLittle I knock my stacks over about 5 times per tournament so if RoboPio can keep its chips in neat 20-stacks I'm going to be totally jealous.
| -1
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NateSilver538
|
@danwinesalot Thank you! Yeah, I think what's tricky is that there are a lot of irregularities in poker, e.g. every casino uses different chips, there are lots of different house rules (and the rules are sometimes laxly enforced) etc.
|
@danwinesalot Thank you! Yeah, I think what's tricky is that there are a lot of irregularities in poker, e.g. every casino uses different chips, there are lots of different house rules (and the rules are sometimes laxly enforced) etc.
| 1
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NateSilver538
|
@JonathanLittle We just need an eccentric billionaire to fund a poker-playing robotics startup.
|
@JonathanLittle We just need an eccentric billionaire to fund a poker-playing robotics startup.
| 0
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NateSilver538
|
@mattg312cards Yeah right now it totally sounds like a narc. https://t.co/IbBBxCWDfM
|
@mattg312cards Yeah right now it totally sounds like a narc.
| 1
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NateSilver538
|
@bryanjoiner I mean it had better give you bathroom and sleep breaks, otherwise you can just unplug it!
|
@bryanjoiner I mean it had better give you bathroom and sleep breaks, otherwise you can just unplug it!
| 1
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NateSilver538
|
My assertion in the book is NO, that in contrast to the technical aspects of poker where computers > humans (with a few qualifications), some of these tasks are still hard. But want to be sure that's right. If you work in robotics or are otherwise in a position to know, LMK!
|
My assertion in the book is NO, that in contrast to the technical aspects of poker where computers > humans (with a few qualifications), some of these tasks are still hard. But want to be sure that's right. If you work in robotics or are otherwise in a position to know, LMK!
| 1
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NateSilver538
|
Weird question for my book. Given current tech, could a robot physically play in a poker game? It would need to e.g.:
—Handle poker chips
—Lift up its cards to read them without revealing to other players
—Visually recognize action without verbal cues (e.g. Player X bet $200)
|
Weird question for my book. Given current tech, could a robot physically play in a poker game? It would need to e.g.:
—Handle poker chips
—Lift up its cards to read them without revealing to other players
—Visually recognize action without verbal cues (e.g. Player X bet $200)
| 1
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NateSilver538
|
I think what's remarkable is how overtly the GOP has really stopped even trying to be a majoritarian party. Their vote share over the past four presidential elections is 46.8%, 46.1%, 47.2%, 45.7%.
|
I think what's remarkable is how overtly the GOP has really stopped even trying to be a majoritarian party. Their vote share over the past four presidential elections is 46.8%, 46.1%, 47.2%, 45.7%.
| 1
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NateSilver538
|
Betting markets (which aren't particularly smart when it comes to politics but would still usually trust people who put money on the line vs. people who don't) aren't really buying the "indictment helps Trump" theory. https://t.co/kNRohIzSGd https://t.co/Gg1HUpRmZR
|
Betting markets (which aren't particularly smart when it comes to politics but would still usually trust people who put money on the line vs. people who don't) aren't really buying the "indictment helps Trump" theory.
| 1
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NateSilver538
|
Also if he's not convicted that's obviously going to matter.
|
Also if he's not convicted that's obviously going to matter.
| 0
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NateSilver538
|
Now, the tone of media coverage could matter and have indirect effects on public opinion, so people will pick some of the underlying strength or weakness of the case via osmosis. Bur most people's eyes will glaze over when it comes to the details.
|
Now, the tone of media coverage could matter and have indirect effects on public opinion, so people will pick some of the underlying strength or weakness of the case via osmosis. Bur most people's eyes will glaze over when it comes to the details.
| 1
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NateSilver538
|
Don't have a lot of Deep Indictment Thoughts but one thing I'm reasonably sure of is that the details of the case will matter only at the margin to public opinion. Most voters will regard it as a "Lifetime Achievement Award" and may not know or care about the specific charges.
|
Don't have a lot of Deep Indictment Thoughts but one thing I'm reasonably sure of is that the details of the case will matter only at the margin to public opinion. Most voters will regard it as a "Lifetime Achievement Award" and may not know or care about the specific charges.
| 1
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NateSilver538
|
@TheStalwart I feel like people underestimate "chance that shit gets really weird" in a way that maybe doesn't fall neatly into these categories.
|
@TheStalwart I feel like people underestimate "chance that shit gets really weird" in a way that maybe doesn't fall neatly into these categories.
| -1
|
NateSilver538
|
Relatedly, a lot of people are *very* overconfident that Trump would lose if nominated again. He's won before, polls show a close race vs. Biden, possible recession looming, Biden will be 81 next year. Trump's chances would be pretty high, maybe 40% or so.
https://t.co/EwlJ5ebo7o
|
Relatedly, a lot of people are *very* overconfident that Trump would lose if nominated again. He's won before, polls show a close race vs. Biden, possible recession looming, Biden will be 81 next year. Trump's chances would be pretty high, maybe 40% or so.
| 1
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NateSilver538
|
"Starting to"? Not even clear what this tweet is trying to say but concern over misaligned AI has been a major issue in the tech community for years. MIRI began focusing on it in 2005! It's just now hitting the radar screen of "misinfo" reporters, I guess. https://t.co/Fb3eV1x6cy https://t.co/9oX6Lvbv6X
|
"Starting to"? Not even clear what this tweet is trying to say but concern over misaligned AI has been a major issue in the tech community for years. MIRI began focusing on it in 2005! It's just now hitting the radar screen of "misinfo" reporters, I guess.
| -1
|
NateSilver538
|
And it's not just DeSantis, they're also trying to prevent Pence, Scott and Haley from gaining any momentum! The Lincoln Project seems terrified that anyone other than Trump might be the nominee in 2024. https://t.co/tVoEVsgNbD
|
And it's not just DeSantis, they're also trying to prevent Pence, Scott and Haley from gaining any momentum! The Lincoln Project seems terrified that anyone other than Trump might be the nominee in 2024.
| -1
|
NateSilver538
|
A lot of people in the anti-Trump crowd have spent the past 8 years making the case that Trump is uniquely unfit for office and/or uniquely dangerous to democracy, that was very explicitly the claim of the Lincoln Project when it launched for instance.
https://t.co/1lBUD0LeJO
|
A lot of people in the anti-Trump crowd have spent the past 8 years making the case that Trump is uniquely unfit for office and/or uniquely dangerous to democracy, that was very explicitly the claim of the Lincoln Project when it launched for instance.
| -1
|
NateSilver538
|
It's not even subtle, there usually isn't even the pretense of trying to propose some non-DeSantis alternative to Trump. https://t.co/HrHyOeRQx0
|
It's not even subtle, there usually isn't even the pretense of trying to propose some non-DeSantis alternative to Trump.
| 0
|
NateSilver538
|
Somewhat separate phenomenon but also the number of supposedly anti-Trump people who seem quite giddy whenever Trump rises in the polls or DeSantis struggles is kind of remarkable.
|
Somewhat separate phenomenon but also the number of supposedly anti-Trump people who seem quite giddy whenever Trump rises in the polls or DeSantis struggles is kind of remarkable.
| 1
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NateSilver538
|
It's worth remembering that media coverage (e.g. blanket coverage of his rallies on CNN) was generally pretty helpful to Trump in the 2016 primary* and I'm not sure the habits or incentives have changed all that much.
* Maybe the general election also, but for different reasons.
|
It's worth remembering that media coverage (e.g. blanket coverage of his rallies on CNN) was generally pretty helpful to Trump in the 2016 primary* and I'm not sure the habits or incentives have changed all that much.
* Maybe the general election also, but for different reasons.
| 1
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NateSilver538
|
Thinking about signing a petition that takes a stand against petitions.
|
Thinking about signing a petition that takes a stand against petitions.
| 0
|
NateSilver538
|
@Protentialmn I'm sorry to hear that, Ryan. I think it probably *is* a Twitter thing, it's definitely more of a Wild West atmosphere.
|
@Protentialmn I'm sorry to hear that, Ryan. I think it probably *is* a Twitter thing, it's definitely more of a Wild West atmosphere.
| 1
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NateSilver538
|
The biggest change I've seen so far is that Twitter is more politically pluralistic. There's less of a single dominant narrative, there are fewer pile-ons than before (though still a lot). More two-ships-passing-in-the-night. To me that's a net positive but your mileage may vary.
|
The biggest change I've seen so far is that Twitter is more politically pluralistic. There's less of a single dominant narrative, there are fewer pile-ons than before (though still a lot). More two-ships-passing-in-the-night. To me that's a net positive but your mileage may vary.
| 1
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NateSilver538
|
I don't like the upcoming changes—no problem in principle with paying for Twitter, I just really don't think security features are the things you should have to pay for!
But also agree with this that Twitter hasn't changed that much so far under Elon.
https://t.co/PE9E8zNn8T https://t.co/aDvxTYSG9V
|
I don't like the upcoming changes—no problem in principle with paying for Twitter, I just really don't think security features are the things you should have to pay for!
But also agree with this that Twitter hasn't changed that much so far under Elon.
| -1
|
NateSilver538
|
Yep, the Democratic Party is currently more tolerant of moderates than the GOP. That's reflected in the data (self-ID'd moderates voted D by 15 points in the midterms). Progressive left spaces may be intolerant of dissent especially online but they are not the *Democratic Party*.
|
Yep, the Democratic Party is currently more tolerant of moderates than the GOP. That's reflected in the data (self-ID'd moderates voted D by 15 points in the midterms). Progressive left spaces may be intolerant of dissent especially online but they are not the *Democratic Party*.
| 1
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NateSilver538
|
Probably the most tangible question *for now* is whether a viable non-DeSantis challenger emerges to Trump. If we get to September and it's still Trump, DeSantis and a bunch of people polling at 5%, I don't think today's "momentum" matters much.
|
Probably the most tangible question *for now* is whether a viable non-DeSantis challenger emerges to Trump. If we get to September and it's still Trump, DeSantis and a bunch of people polling at 5%, I don't think today's "momentum" matters much.
| 1
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NateSilver538
|
There's "momentum" in the sense that candidates go through cycles of positive and negative media coverage. Sometimes that has tangible effects. But momentum creates higher "expectations" and sets a candidate up for a fall as the media gets bored of the previous narrative.
|
There's "momentum" in the sense that candidates go through cycles of positive and negative media coverage. Sometimes that has tangible effects. But momentum creates higher "expectations" and sets a candidate up for a fall as the media gets bored of the previous narrative.
| 0
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End of preview. Expand
in Data Studio
A subset of the twitter100m_tweets dataset from enryu43: https://huggingface.co/datasets/enryu43/twitter100m_tweets
This subset contains 1000 tweets from the top 1000 authors from the above dataset. All tweets have also been assigned a sentiment score (1 for positive, 0 for neutral, -1 for negative), using VADER Sentiment Analysis: https://github.com/cjhutto/vaderSentiment.
The dataset is well suited for both sentiment analysis and authorship identification / obfuscation.
If you use this dataset and/or find it useful, please cite the original dataset as well as:
@misc{meisenbacher2025privacysizemattersimportance,
title={With Privacy, Size Matters: On the Importance of Dataset Size in Differentially Private Text Rewriting},
author={Stephen Meisenbacher and Florian Matthes},
year={2025},
eprint={2511.00487},
archivePrefix={arXiv},
primaryClass={cs.CL},
url={https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.00487},
}
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