BASIR: Budget-Assisted Sectoral Impact Ranking -- A Dataset for Sector Identification and Performance Prediction Using Language Models
Paper • 2504.13189 • Published
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1SPEECH OF SHRI R.K. SHANMUKHAM CHETTY, MINISTER OF |
FINANCE INTRODUCING THE BUDGET FOR THE YEAR 1947-1948 |
I rise to present the first Budget of a free and independent India. This occasion |
may well be considered an historic one and I count it a rare privilege that it has fallento me to be the Finance Minister to present this Budget. While I am conscious of thehonour that is implied in this position, I am even more conscious of the responsibilitiesthat face the custodian of the finances of India at this c... |
2. It is not necessary to dwell at any length on the political developments |
which have led to the momentous changes that have taken place since the Budget forthe current year was presented to the Legislative Assembly last February. The partitionof the country has cut across its economic and cultural unity and the growth of centuriesof common life to which all the communities have contributed. ... |
resulting from partition, our large natural resources and sound financial position willenable us to launch a vigorous economic plan for substantially raising the living standardof our people. |
3. The Budget Statement that I am presenting today will cover a period of |
7 |
1/2 months from the 15th August, 1947 to the 31st March, 1948. I may briefly explain |
the circumstances in which it has been necessary to present a fresh Budget for this |
period. With the division of the country and the emergence of two independentGovernments in place of the old Central Government, the Budget for the current year1947-48 passed by the Legislature last March ceased to be operative. Although under |
the transitional provisions of the constitution, Government could authorize the |
expenditure necessary for the rest of the financial year, it was felt that it will be inaccordance with the public wish that a Budget should be placed before therepresentatives of the people at the earliest possible moment. There is nothing |
spectacular about my statement and there will be no surprises associated with a Budget. |
I shall place before the House our estimate of revenue and expenditure for this periodand I shall try to indicate in broad outlines the pattern of the economic life of thecountry and the problems that we will have to face in the immediate future. |
PARTITION ARRANGEMENTS |
4. Before I proceed to deal with the estimates for the year, the House would |
doubtless wish to have a brief account of the broad details of the partition and itsimmediate financial and economic results. As soon as the decision to divide the countrywas taken, a Partition Council, consisting of the representatives of both the futureGovernments, was set up to implement the decision. A number of Ex... |
th August 1947 when the two Dominions |
came into existence and took over the Government of their respective territories. Anumber of important points were accordingly left over for further consideration by thetwo Dominions and, in the absence of an agreement between them, for reference to anArbitral Tribunal which has been set up. Among the important issues ... |
movable stores held by the Army. Some of these issues are likely to go before theArbitral Tribunal and the House will not expect me to say anything further about themat this stage. It was also found impossible to reconstitute the Armed Forces betweenthe two Dominions and allocate the military stores, equipment and inst... |
th August 1947. For the completion of this work, and for clothing, |
feeding and paying the Armed Forces till their reconstitution had been completed, aJoint Defence Council representing the two Dominions with an independent Chairmanand with a Supreme Commander responsible to the Council, has been set up. ThisCouncil was originally expected to complete its work by the 1 |
st of April 1948 but it is |
now hoped that this may be mostly achieved by the end of this month. |
5. The long range fiscal, financial and economic relations between the two |
Dominions still remain to be considered, but for the rest of the current year theintention is to maintain, within the framework of the agreements arrived at, thestatus quo before the partition. For the present both the Dominions will continue the |
existing taxes and duties, there will be a free movement of trade between them |
without any internal barriers and the import and exchange controls of the twoDominions will be co-ordinated. It has also been agreed that till the end of September1948 the two Dominions will remain under a common currency system managed bythe Reserve Bank, although from the 1 |
st April next Pakistan will have its own |
overprinted notes and coin. So far as revenue is concerned, each Dominion will |
ordinarily retain what it collects but in respect of income tax on assessments for.1946-47 and earlier years and uncollected demands ion the date of the partition anarrangement for sharing the receipts arising in both the Dominions has been arrivedat. In the matter of the division of assets and liabilities, it has not ... |
including the allocation of debt and the discharge of the liability for pensions. But |
the responsibility for the outstanding liabilities of the old Government could not,obvious reasons, be left vague and undetermined and the only practicable coursewas for one of the Dominions to accept the initial liability to the creditors and settlewith the other the contribution to be made by it. The initial liabilit... |
time of the partition and for the pensions chargeable to it has been placed by law on |
the Indian Dominion subject to an equitable contribution from Pakistan. I am surethe House will welcome this decision because in the interests of the credit of boththe successor Governments it is obviously undesirable to leave those who had lentmoney to the previous Government or had earned pensions under it in any dou... |
REVIEW OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS |
6. There has been a marked deterioration in the economic situation in the |
country since March last. The situation has been aggravated by the large scale4disturbances which burst out suddenly, more especially in the Punjab and the North- |
West Frontier Province. Apart from the serious economic consequences arising out ofthese disturbances, the human misery that it has caused cannot be measured in termsof money. Thousands of innocent lives have been lost in the two Dominions andmigration on a scale unprecedented in history has taken place. The total numb... |
7. The food position has continued to cause grave anxiety both to the |
Provincial Governments and the Central Government. The country has just weathereda serious threat of a breakdown of its rationing system. The results of the “Grow MoreFood Campaign” have been on the whole disappointing. During the three years 1944-45, 1945-46 and 1946-47 we had to import from abroad 43.80 lakhs of tons... |
the finances of the Government. In recent years our exchange difficulty is almost |
entirely due to the import of foodgrains on such a large scale. The meagre exchangeresources available to us are consumed by the purchase of foodstuffs abroad with theresult that we have to impose the most stringent restrictions on the import of manyother essential articles. The various steps necessary for making the c... |
in the country and the Committee has submitted an interim report which is receiving |
the attention of the Government.58. The deterioration in the economic situation has been particularly noticed |
in respect of prices which have shown an unchecked upward tendency. Between the |
5th April and the 9th August this year the Economic Adviser’s index number of wholesale |
prices rose by 7 points while the Bombay cost of living index advanced by 14 points.Taking the Bombay cost of living index number, while it was 243 in August 1945 it |
rose to 267 in August 1946 and reached 284 in August 1947. The chief factor which |
has contributed to this development is the general decline in agricultural and industrial |
production In the country due partly to the wide prevalence of communal disorders |
and generally to the increasing Industrial unrest. While the supply position has been |
deteriorating, increases in wages and salaries given by private employers and the |
Government had the effect of augmenting the purchasing power of the people andwidening the gap between current money income and production of goods. The situation |
would not have been so bad if the unbalance between money and goods was confined |
to these factors only. The most disturbing factor which affects the situation today is |
the unspent balances of Individuals and institutions accumulated during the peak years |
of Inflation which are being spent on the deferred wants of individuals, repairs toindustry and on the building of trade inventory. In other words, the money demand for |
goods Is colossal compared to their local production. While the inflation in war time |
was due to the large increases in currency circulation (which rose from Rs. 172 crores |
in 1939 to over Rs. 1200 crores at the end of 1945) without any tangible increase in |
the supply of goods the present Inflation Is not due to further increase of currency but |
to a steady fall in the supply of goods. Although the total available money, whether |
currency or bank deposits, has slightly fallen It has spread out more among a widercircle of people in the form of wages and salaries and thus the actual purchasing |
power in the hands of those who spend it on ordinary goods has greatly increased. But |
the supply of goods has meanwhile fallen and has resulted in an upward trend of |
prices. To take only a few examples of the marked fall in internal production, it may |
be mentioned that as against a production of 4, 600 million yards of mill made cloth |
and 1, 500 million yards of handloom cloth in 1945 the production this year is estimated |
at 3,900 million yards and 1,200 million yards respectively. The production of steel inthe current year is also expected to show a drop of nearly 400,000 tons compared with |
the peak production of 1,200,000 tons during the war. The production of cement has |
also grown steadily worse, the estimated production this year showing a drop of 700, |
000 tons over the capacity of over 2 |
1/2 million tons. In recent months the production |
of coal has shown some improvement. but so far as the consuming public is concerned,this has been more than neutralised by difficulties in transport resulting in large |
accumulation of coal at the pit heads. Transport and other difficulties explain the drop |
in production to some extent, but this is also partly due to labour unrest and strikes. |
9. If the economy of this country is to be placed on a sound footing and |
maintained in a healthy condition, it is of the utmost importance to increase internalproduction. The chances of increasing the supplies of commodities by imports are not |
very bright. Until recently we had a fair chance of sizable imports of consumer goods6from the British Commonwealth countries from accumulated balances, but with the |
blocking of the major part of these and the growing adverse balance resulting from thelarge scale importation of foodgrains, the hope of procuring supplies from abroad isgrowing weak. We have therefore to fall back on our own resources. Governmenthave recently announced their scheme for increasing the production of cot... |
REVENUE |
10. I shall now proceed to a brief review of the financial position for the rest |
of the current year. But I must warn the House that the estimates now presented mustbe treated as very tentative as it has not been possible to assess with any measure ofaccuracy the effects of the partition on our revenue and expenditure. I hope it will bepossible to present a more accurate picture when the revised es... |
11. I have budgeted for a revenue of Rs. 171.15 crores and a revenue |
expenditure of Rs. 197.39 crores. The net deficit on revenue account in the periodcovered by these estimates will be Rs. 26.24 crores. But the final figure may be higherbecause the actual amount likely to be required for meeting the expenditure inconnection with the relief and rehabilitation of refugees is still very u... |
12. The revenue receipts, as I have said, are estimated at Rs. 171.15 crores. |
Customs receipts have been placed at Rs. 50.5 crores and take into account the effect |
of the recent restrictions on imports for conserving our foreign exchange resources. |
Income tax is expected to yield Rs. 29.5 crores on account of E.P.T. and Rs. 88.5crores on account of ordinary collections. Although the Niemeyer Award has nowceased to have effect it is proposed to maintain the share of the Provinces in theincome tax revenue at approximately the same level as now after making an adjus... |
to Rs. 15.9 crores and the working expenses and interest to 13.9 crores leaving a netsurplus of Rs. 2 crores. The outright contribution of the department to general revenueswill be three-fourths of the realised surplus, the department retaining the balance. Thedepartment will get a rebate of interest on its share of th... |
EXPENDITURE |
14. The total expenditure for the year is estimated at Rs. 197.39 crores, of |
which Rs. 92.74 crores is on account of the Defence Services, the balance representingCivil expenditure. Following the customary procedure, I shall first deal with the DefenceEstimates which remain, as in the past, the largest single item of expenditure. |
DEFENCE SERVICES |
15. The reconstitution of the Armed Forces in India into two Dominion forces |
was an inevitable consequence of the partition of the country. This decision came ata time when the Armed Forces were in the process of rapid demobilisation. While asubstantial measure of demobilisation had already been achieved, the process wasarrested as a consequence of the decision to divide the remaining forces be... |
made responsible for carrying out the reconstitution, and for general administrative |
End of preview. Expand in Data Studio
Sector Classification Dataset: sector_classification/sectorwise_budget_text_extracted.xlsx
Description of columns:
date - Date of Budget
year - Year of Budget
budget_full_text_filename - Name of file having full budget transcript
text_segment - Text excerpts related to the identified sector
sector - Identified sector (TARGET)
Sector Ranking Dataset: sector_ranking/sectorwise_budgetdaywise_performance_with_text_ranked_full.xlsx
Description of columns:
date - Date of Budget
year - Year of Budget
budget_full_text_filename - Name of file having full budget transcript
sector - Identified sector
text_segment - Text excerpts related to the identified sector
number_of_companies - Number of companies in the identified sector for which we could get data
mean_target_increment - Denotes the change in performance of sector on the day next to the budget day (TARGET)
rank - Rank of the Sector in the given year (TARGET)
@misc{ghosh2025basirbudgetassistedsectoralimpact,
title={BASIR: Budget-Assisted Sectoral Impact Ranking -- A Dataset for Sector Identification and Performance Prediction Using Language Models},
author={Sohom Ghosh and Sudip Kumar Naskar},
year={2025},
eprint={2504.13189},
archivePrefix={arXiv},
primaryClass={cs.CL},
url={https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.13189},
}
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