| # Dyck-1 independent replication protocol |
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| Locked before training at **2026-07-21T14:32:51+04:00**. |
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| ## Motivation |
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| The discovery cohort (seeds 0–14) found a large far-OOD exact-match gain for |
| `p=.5` over `p=0`, but the primary paired test was marginal (`t=2.247`, |
| two-sided threshold `2.145`) and its balanced-accuracy sensitivity check did not |
| clear the same threshold (`t=2.127`). Because the decision to collect more seeds |
| followed that result, a pooled 30-seed test would inherit optional-stopping bias. |
| Seeds 15–29 are therefore a separate confirmatory replication cohort. |
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| ## Frozen experiment |
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| - Task: Dyck-1. |
| - Arms: `p=0` and `p=.5`. |
| - Training seeds: 15–29, paired across arms; no overlap with discovery seeds. |
| - Six isolated five-seed jobs: seed starts 15, 20, and 25 for each arm. |
| - Configuration: exactly `scripts/dyck1_seedscale.py::job_config` — two physical |
| LoopDeepNorm blocks, `R=8`, recall-add, fixed schedule, `n_ref=max`, batch 128, |
| AdamW LR `3e-4`, Muon LR `.01`, 2,500 maximum steps, curriculum enabled, |
| truncated-BPTT window `k=8`, and MPS/bfloat16. |
| - Checkpoint selection: best ID validation accuracy using seed 4242, unchanged |
| from Stage 1a. |
| - Held-out evaluation: 2,048 shared examples per bucket, evaluation seed |
| 20260721 (bucket-specific offset as implemented), inference `R=8`. |
| - All 30 runs will be trained and reported regardless of interim outcomes. |
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| ## Confirmatory endpoint |
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| The sole confirmatory endpoint is per-seed far-OOD exact-match accuracy on |
| lengths 62–80. For each seed, compute `p=.5 - p=0`, then apply a paired, |
| two-sided t-test across replication seeds 15–29 (`n=15`, `df=14`, `alpha=.05`, |
| critical `|t|=2.1447867`). Replication succeeds only if the mean difference is |
| positive and `t > 2.1447867`. |
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| The replication means, mean paired difference, paired t-statistic, and decision |
| will be reported regardless of direction. No task, bucket, metric, seed, or |
| checkpoint will be excluded after training except a documented technical failure |
| that prevents a checkpoint from being produced. |
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| ## Secondary and descriptive analyses |
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| - Far-OOD balanced exact match on the same replication cohort. |
| - Near-OOD (22–40), mid-OOD (42–60), and ID (2–20) exact match. |
| - Discovery (seeds 0–14) and replication (seeds 15–29) results side by side. |
| - Pooled 30-seed mean differences and 95% confidence intervals as descriptive |
| estimates only; no pooled confirmatory p-value. |
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| Any analysis not listed above is exploratory and will be labeled as such. |
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