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\[59:48\] I live here in a place where there are a lot of electric scooters. There's Lime, that Uber bought, and some others, and whatever... And I've always seen them, but I always was interested/curious in "How would it be to have one?" Well, now it's just a click on your phone and you jump on it and you go to the su... |
**Break:** \[01:00:29.17\] |
**Adam Stacoviak:** It makes me think about this next notion, which I'm not sure I agree with, but it's been potentially the phrase, or at least the sentiment of the last year or so, mainly around fear, uncertainty and doubt, which is "Developers are dead." That we're a dying breed, AI is taking our jobs, it's going to... |
**Werner Vogels:** I do think if your job was only being - and that sounds a bit negative - a code monkey... |
**Adam Stacoviak:** All you do is code. That's all you do. You don't think, you don't plan... |
**Jerod Santo:** Right? |
**Werner Vogels:** If that would be -- but I think most of us have had to think about some of the stuff that we built. We had to think about algorithms, we had to think about trade-offs, we had to think about sort of -- you went over to your colleague on the other side and you said "This is what I need to solve here...... |
And I think as developers, there are a number of things that we will need to re-encounter. First of all, I do think we've been learning for 50 years now - or however long we've been doing computer science; probably 1960s, so... Yeah, 60 years. So we've been learning programming languages for 60 years. We've been going ... |
**Jerod Santo:** Oh, go ahead... |
**Adam Stacoviak:** Spill the beans... I'm just kidding. |
**Werner Vogels:** \[01:08:17.17\] I believe to be successful, not only in the future, but also now, is to not only have a deep specialism, but start to become interested in the broadness as well. It's called a T developer. It is someone that is not just a database expert; not just a database expert, but he knows about... |
Another area that I think the newer type of developers - the renaissance developer needs to be an excellent communicator. And with that, for example, I mean, if you look at the Amazon website - just imagine that for you - there are some parts of the Amazon website that always need to work, because otherwise we can't se... |
Now, take for example bestseller lists. Now, as a technologist, you need to be able to have a conversation with the business, and say "How many nines do you want behind that? Oh, you want four nines behind your bestseller list? Well, that's going to cost you so much." And then it becomes a business decision how I am go... |
So a very important part of the renaissance developer is to be able to communicate in exactly the right way. Not only to the business, but also with your customers. "What are you building? How does this interact with this?" If I show you a picture of the thousands of microservices that builds out amazon.com... If I do ... |
So system thinking becomes crucial as well, not just about your little piece that you're building, but what impact does that have on other things? Or, you know, I'm happy going away, my database is running, my code is running, everything's happening, transactions are playing through... And suddenly, the number of trans... |
\[01:12:08.27\] And as such, being a specialist in one particular area and just staying there is safe, it's fine, but you live in a bigger system. And that really comes out of '60s, '70s, \[unintelligible 01:12:33.17\] Meadows began something called system thinking. In nature, if you remove one piece out of that equati... |
At some moment -- what was it? Yellowstone Park. There were too many wolves. They removed the wolves from the park. Oh, they were killing all the elks. So they removed all the wolves. And then the number of elks grows like mad. |
**Jerod Santo:** Right. Backfire. |
**Werner Vogels:** Which starts eating all sorts of Yellowstone. And so not until they reintroduce the wolves, the balance gets back. So on systems thinking is something that we as the future renaissance engineers need to be part of as well. We need to understand that the one thing that we're working on at this moment ... |
And so one of the things I think that I -- I won't say hate... Let's say one of the less interesting parts in the beginning of my life as a developer were code reviews. It's a bit like standing in front of the class, and the whole class gets a chance to say "You're an idiot." |
**Jerod Santo:** Right. |
**Werner Vogels:** No, but code reviews are fun. Sometimes you think "Ah, there's mistakes there", or sometimes you go like "Wow, that's an elegant solution. \[unintelligible 01:14:40.16\] And code reviews are super-important for junior engineers. Because the senior engineers are in the room, and discussing the code on... |
And as such, if your system has been created by one of the AI tools - and as I said earlier, you are responsible for it, especially if you're in life sciences, if you're in healthcare, if you're in financial services, in whatever; you cannot only rely on the fact that "Oh, but AI built it." |
\[01:16:18.17\] You are still responsible for what you deliver. And that means you need to be able to look at it, and as such, generation of code may go faster, reviews will probably go slower. Because this is not code that I've written. If it's my code, I can go stand up in front of the class and say "Oh, and this is ... |
And that's not bad. I mean, none of this -- don't take this as that I'm sort of cracking on AI as being... No, there's parts that will never leave us. We need to learn the next steps, we continue to keep ownership of what we do, we continue to need to learn the next language, the next tool, the next system that we buil... |
And my favorite - and he comes back in almost every presentation that I give - was Jim Gray. He won the Turing Award. He's the guy that actually built System R at IBM, the inventor of transactions. Jim was brilliant. Absolutely brilliant. There's an article, if you want to look it up, it's called "20 questions to Jim G... |
Now, he was not just a database expert. He had a lot of other skills in other areas. He was what we would call a T developer. An I developer is someone that knows only one thing. A T developer has a number of knowledges in other areas, whether it's computer science, whether it's from the world, or whatever. It's a broa... |
**Adam Stacoviak:** This idea of code review, one thing you're making me think about is - at least the sentiment it seems today is getting through code review. It seems like you're suggesting, even though it's painful, not so much pausing, but not getting through it just to deliver the code to production and correctnes... |
**Werner Vogels:** \[01:20:17.27\] Yeah. And I'm getting old... I just had a great answer to what you wanted to \[unintelligible 01:20:22.28\] and I completely lost it. \[laughter\] I do think that we've changed over time, as developers. I mean, I've written VB. I don't think there's anybody that writes Visual Basic an... |
**Adam Stacoviak:** Not on purpose... Fix a bug maybe, in legacy code, if it's still there... |
**Werner Vogels:** Yeah, something like that. But it was fun when we were doing it. And I wasn't thinking about five databases replicated over five different data centers throughout the world at that particular moment. I was trying to fix my Excel code. And so we've all grown as developers over the past 10, 15, 20 year... |
Every week, we see five new models, or ten new models. Suddenly, we went from regular LLMs to reasoning LLMs. I think as a business there is no shame in hitting the Pause button for a moment, and say "Why don't we get ourselves educated about all of this?" And not just us as technologists, but also the business. Becaus... |
\[01:23:58.06\] We, together with our business, should determine how our architectures should look like, not because the newest thing... And of course, that's the task of the media. And the task of the media is also to write negative headlines, even if things are looking up... "That company is massively behind that com... |
**Jerod Santo:** Right. |
**Werner Vogels:** If AWS doesn't have a chatbot, it means that we're out of business in AI. It just means it's not our business. And I think that's really crucial in all of this, that we take time to learn the technologies, the capabilities of the technology, and where it can help us in our businesses. And if we also ... |
But definitely, in business I think there is no shame in hitting the Pause button and spend some time on education and making sure that you and your engineers are making the right decisions, with the right tools. There is no hurry. There is no hurry. No company will go out of business in the coming two months because t... |
**Jerod Santo:** Well, you heard it here first, because very few people are saying that out loud... And while I agree with you and I think that it is a problem, I wonder if we have an appetite as an industry to address said problem. I think we're just barreling forward, and we'll see what happens. But I also agree when... |
**Werner Vogels:** Well, one of the other things... It didn't make it this time into the predictions... Did it do it last year? One of the things that -- I think last year one of the things I talked about, one of the things that worries me, is that parents driving in their car, the kids are in the backseat, they're get... |
Nobody wants to be bored anymore. Nobody wants to just stare out in the distance, and use their brains... And we can't help ourselves, because we've ruined ourselves. And if we do this with our young kids, we will have an epidemic on our hands 10-15 years from now in terms of addiction. Anyways... Sorry, guys, I keep y... |
**Jerod Santo:** No, we appreciate it. We know you've got to go... Didn't quite make it to your fifth, but great, great predictions. Thank you for sharing your extended thoughts on them, and giving us some time today. |
**Werner Vogels:** Okay. Well, I really enjoyed it, guys. Come and watch my keynote, the last keynote at re:Invent. I'm doing it at 3.30 on Thursday. |
**Jerod Santo:** Nice. |
**Werner Vogels:** After me, everybody can do whatever they want. |
**Jerod Santo:** You're the closer. |
**Werner Vogels:** I am the closer. Awesome, Werner. Well, you're welcome back anytime. |
**Werner Vogels:** Coming close. |
**Adam Stacoviak:** Yes. |
**Werner Vogels:** Okay. Bye-bye. |
**Adam Stacoviak:** Thank you, Werner. |
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