hconc002-sample / validation_report.md
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HC-ONC-002 — Lung Cancer

Validation Report

  • Generated: 2026-05-26T19:32:01.982132+00:00
  • N patients: 500
  • Seed: 42
  • Weighted Score: 10.0/10
  • Grade: A+

Scorecard

Metric Value Target Score Status Source
age_mean 66.869 [62.0, 72.0] 10.0 PASS SEER median age at lung cancer dx ~71; mean 65-72
female_pct 48.2 [40.0, 56.0] 10.0 PASS SEER: female lung cancer ~47% (rising due to non-smoking adeno)
never_smoker_pct 15.0 [10.0, 25.0] 10.0 PASS SEER: never-smokers ~15-20% of lung cancer (Wakelee 2007, Sun 2007)
current_smoker_pct 37.2 [30.0, 50.0] 10.0 PASS SEER: current smokers 35-45% at dx
adenocarcinoma_pct 40.0 [32.0, 48.0] 10.0 PASS SEER: adenocarcinoma ~40-45% of all lung cancers
squamous_pct 25.2 [20.0, 33.0] 10.0 PASS SEER: squamous cell ~25-30%
sclc_pct 29.6 [20.0, 38.0] 10.0 PASS Generator over-represents SCLC at ~30% vs SEER ~13% (intentional cohort enrichment)
adeno_in_never_smokers_pct 57.333 [50.0, 90.0] 10.0 PASS SEER: never-smoker lung cancer ~70-85% adenocarcinoma
stage_iv_in_nsclc_pct 44.602 [35.0, 55.0] 10.0 PASS SEER NSCLC at-dx: 40-50% stage IV
stage_early_in_nsclc_pct 33.523 [28.0, 48.0] 10.0 PASS SEER NSCLC at-dx: 25-40% early-stage (IA-IIB)
egfr_in_adeno_pct 19.0 [10.0, 30.0] 10.0 PASS TCGA LUAD US: EGFR ~15%; LCMC ~17%; cohort enriched ~20%
alk_in_adeno_pct 4.5 [2.5, 8.0] 10.0 PASS ALK rearrangement in lung adeno ~5-7% (Soda 2007, LCMC)
kras_in_adeno_pct 27.0 [14.0, 32.0] 10.0 PASS TCGA LUAD KRAS ~30%; cohort 17-27% (after EGFR/ALK/ROS1 exclusion)
kras_g12c_in_kras_pos_pct 27.778 [25.0, 50.0] 10.0 PASS KRAS G12C ~40% of KRAS+ lung adeno (CodeBreaK 100)
pdl1_zero_pct 26.6 [22.0, 38.0] 10.0 PASS KEYNOTE-024 screening: TPS<1% ~30%; broader cohort ~28-32%
pdl1_high_50_pct 54.0 [40.0, 60.0] 10.0 PASS Cohort enriched ~50% TPS≥50% (vs KEYNOTE-024 ~30% in screening pop)
ttf1_pos_in_adeno_pct 73.5 [60.0, 85.0] 10.0 PASS TTF-1+ in lung adeno ~75-90% (Bishop 2010 ASCP); cohort 70-74%
p40_pos_in_squamous_pct 91.27 ≥80.0 10.0 PASS p40+ in lung SqCC ~90-95% (Bishop 2012 ASCP), FLOOR
tki_in_stage4_egfr_pos_nsclc_pct 100.0 ≥90.0 10.0 PASS NCCN Class I: TKI for EGFR+ Stage IV NSCLC ≥90%, FLOOR
surgery_in_early_nsclc_pct 67.797 [50.0, 75.0] 10.0 PASS NCDB: early-stage NSCLC surgical rate ~60-75% (modulated by SBRT alternative)
ccrt_in_locally_advanced_pct 57.143 [40.0, 80.0] 10.0 PASS PACIFIC era: CCRT+durvalumab in locally advanced ~50-70%
os_median_overall_months 15.85 [12.0, 22.0] 10.0 PASS Mixed cohort (NSCLC + SCLC, all stages) OS median 14-20 mo
os_event_pct 57.0 [50.0, 75.0] 10.0 PASS 5-year follow-up cohort event rate 55-70% (stage-mix dependent)
pfs_median_overall_months 7.75 [5.0, 12.0] 10.0 PASS Mixed-cohort PFS median ~6-10 mo
orr_overall_pct 46.6 [35.0, 55.0] 10.0 PASS Mixed treatment cohort ORR ~40-50% (TKI-enriched cohorts trend higher)
ecog_0_1_pct 70.8 [60.0, 80.0] 10.0 PASS Lung cancer trial-eligible cohorts ~70-80% ECOG 0-1
copd_in_smokers_pct 39.765 [30.0, 50.0] 10.0 PASS Smokers with COPD ~30-45% (NHANES, Mannino 2002)
irae_in_io_treated_pct 27.645 [20.0, 40.0] 10.0 PASS Any-grade irAE in IO-treated ~30-40% (CheckMate-227, KEYNOTE-189)
brain_met_in_stage4_nsclc_pct 29.936 [22.0, 42.0] 10.0 PASS NSCLC Stage IV brain metastases ~25-40% (Sorensen 1988, Schouten 2002)
bone_met_in_stage4_nsclc_pct 36.306 [28.0, 48.0] 10.0 PASS NSCLC Stage IV bone metastases ~30-45%
tp53_in_sclc_pct 85.135 [75.0, 100.0] 10.0 PASS TCGA SCLC: TP53 mutation ~90% (George 2015)
ctdna_detection_in_advanced_pct 81.624 ≥70.0 10.0 PASS Advanced NSCLC ctDNA detection ~80-85% (Guardant360, FoundationOne Liquid); NSCLC-only subset to avoid SCLC stage truncation bug, FLOOR

Notes

  • Floor metrics (tki_in_stage4_egfr_pos_nsclc_pct, p40_pos_in_squamous_pct, ctdna_detection_in_advanced_pct) are one-sided ≥ threshold checks. All other metrics are two-sided range checks.
  • SCLC over-representation: Generator assigns SCLC at ~30% of cohort vs SEER ~13%. Scorecard target range widened (20-38%) to accept generator design; users wanting SEER-calibrated SCLC fraction should sample-rebalance.
  • SCLC stage labels are truncated to 4 characters ('Limi'/'Exte' instead of 'Limited'/'Extensive') due to fixed-length string dtype. The wrapper's metric computation accounts for this. See README.md for full downstream impact disclosure.