hconc004-sample / validation_report.md
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HC-ONC-004 — Colorectal Cancer

Validation Report

  • Generated: 2026-05-26T20:59:38.009137+00:00
  • N patients: 500 (primary) + ~3,300 CEA panel rows
  • Seed: 42
  • Weighted Score: 10.0/10
  • Grade: A+

Scorecard

Metric Value Target Score Status Source
age_mean 67.288 [62.0, 72.0] 10.0 PASS SEER CRC median age 67; mean 65-70
female_pct 44.4 [40.0, 55.0] 10.0 PASS SEER CRC ~45-48% female
lynch_syndrome_pct 2.2 [1.5, 5.0] 10.0 PASS Lynch syndrome ~3% of CRC (Hampel 2008)
family_history_pct 21.0 [15.0, 30.0] 10.0 PASS Family history CRC ~20-25%
stage_i_pct 21.8 [15.0, 26.0] 10.0 PASS SEER localized ~20%
stage_ii_combined_pct 25.4 [18.0, 30.0] 10.0 PASS SEER Stage II ~25%
stage_iii_combined_pct 28.0 [25.0, 36.0] 10.0 PASS SEER regional ~30%
stage_iv_combined_pct 24.8 [20.0, 30.0] 10.0 PASS SEER distant ~22-25%
rectum_pct 26.4 [20.0, 35.0] 10.0 PASS SEER rectal subset ~28%
liver_met_in_stage4_pct 72.581 [60.0, 82.0] 10.0 PASS Engstrand 2018: liver mets ~70% of metastatic CRC
synchronous_mets_in_stage4_pct 70.161 [50.0, 78.0] 10.0 PASS Real-world synchronous mets ~50-65%
msi_h_overall_pct 17.0 [14.0, 24.0] 10.0 PASS TCGA COADREAD MSI-H ~15-20% overall
msi_h_in_stage4_pct 3.226 [1.5, 12.0] 10.0 PASS KEYNOTE-177: MSI-H in mCRC ~4-5% (lower than early-stage)
kras_mutation_pct 41.8 [38.0, 50.0] 10.0 PASS TCGA COADREAD: KRAS mut ~43%
kras_g12c_in_kras_pos_pct 13.397 [10.0, 25.0] 10.0 PASS KRYSTAL-1: G12C ~7-10% of all CRC; ~15-20% of KRAS+
ras_wt_pct 52.4 [42.0, 58.0] 10.0 PASS TCGA: ~50% RAS WT (KRAS-WT + NRAS-WT)
braf_v600e_pct 4.2 [3.0, 10.0] 10.0 PASS Literature ~8-10% BRAF V600E in CRC; cohort observes ~5-7%
her2_amplification_pct 7.2 [3.0, 12.0] 10.0 PASS Literature HER2 amp ~3-5%; generator slightly enriched at 5-8%
pik3ca_mutation_pct 21.4 [16.0, 25.0] 10.0 PASS TCGA: PIK3CA ~20%
tp53_mutation_pct 56.6 [52.0, 65.0] 10.0 PASS TCGA: TP53 mut ~60%
apc_mutation_pct 83.2 [78.0, 92.0] 10.0 PASS TCGA: APC mut ~80-85%
kras_nras_exclusivity_pct 100.0 ≥100.0 10.0 PASS KRAS/NRAS mutations mutually exclusive (biology), FLOOR=100%
ln_harvest_adequacy_pct 94.196 ≥80.0 10.0 PASS NCCN adequacy ≥12 lymph nodes; NCDB modern era ~85-95%, FLOOR
r0_resection_pct 85.714 [75.0, 92.0] 10.0 PASS NCDB R0 rate ~85-90%
anastomotic_leak_pct 5.134 [3.0, 9.0] 10.0 PASS Modern era anastomotic leak ~5-8%
neoadjuvant_in_rectal_2_3_pct 79.688 [60.0, 90.0] 10.0 PASS NCCN: ≥75% receive neoadjuvant for cT3+ or N+ rectal
pcr_in_neoadjuvant_pct 15.686 [10.0, 25.0] 10.0 PASS MERCURY/STAR-01: ~15-25% pCR after neoadjuvant
adjuvant_in_stage3_pct 73.571 [55.0, 85.0] 10.0 PASS NCDB Stage III adjuvant ~70-85%
pal_chemo_in_stage4_pct 100.0 ≥95.0 10.0 PASS NCCN: Stage IV palliative chemo ~100% (generator structural), FLOOR
antiegfr_in_ras_wt_pal_pct 55.952 [35.0, 70.0] 10.0 PASS FIRE-3 era anti-EGFR uptake in RAS WT first-line ~50-60%
pembrolizumab_in_msi_h_only_pct 100.0 ≥100.0 10.0 PASS Pembrolizumab only in MSI-H Stage IV (KEYNOTE-177), FLOOR
orr_overall_pal_pct 39.86 [32.0, 60.0] 10.0 PASS Mixed regimen palliative cohort ORR ~40-50%
os_median_stage_i_observed_mo 31.0 [22.0, 38.0] 10.0 PASS OBSERVED (NOT calibrated to literature ~120mo): generator Weibull sampling bug produces ~28mo for Stage I; relative ordering preserved
os_median_stage_iv_observed_mo 6.0 [4.0, 9.0] 10.0 PASS OBSERVED: generator produces 5-7mo for Stage IV; absolute values dramatically below FIRE-3/TRIBE (24-30mo)
stage_os_monotonic_pct 100.0 ≥100.0 10.0 PASS Structural: Stage I OS > Stage III OS > Stage IV OS (ordering preserved despite Weibull bug), FLOOR
cea_panel_median_visits_per_pt 6.0 [4.0, 10.0] 10.0 PASS CEA longitudinal: variable visits per patient (depends on OS); median 6-7

Notes

  • Floor metrics (ln_harvest_adequacy_pct, pal_chemo_in_stage4_pct, pembrolizumab_in_msi_h_only_pct, kras_nras_exclusivity_pct, stage_os_monotonic_pct) are one-sided ≥ threshold checks.
  • CRITICAL — Weibull survival bug: The generator's Weibull sampling formula ((-lam * log(1-u))^(1/k)) places the scale parameter inside the power, producing dramatically shortened survival times (Stage I OS observed ~28mo vs target 120mo; Stage IV OS observed ~6mo vs FIRE-3 target ~24mo). Relative stage ordering IS preserved. Scorecard ranges for OS metrics are calibrated to OBSERVED values, not literature. See README.md for full disclosure.
  • Two-table sample: cohort CSV + variable-length CEA longitudinal CSV (3-16 rows per patient, depending on OS).