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| license: apache-2.0 | |
| task_categories: | |
| - tabular-classification | |
| language: | |
| - en | |
| pretty_name: Google Play Store Apps 2020 - Cleaned | |
| size_categories: | |
| - 1K<n<10K | |
| # π± Google Play Store 2020 β What Made an App Go Viral? | |
| > **A data-driven EDA of 9,436 apps released in 2020, exploring the patterns behind viral success on the Play Store.** | |
| --- | |
| ## π¬ Video Walkthrough | |
| <!-- Replace the src with your actual video link after uploading --> | |
| <video src="https://www.loom.com/share/3b2dc51bcf384a339d3d3328766e4705" controls="controls" style="max-width: 720px;"></video> | |
| *Can't see the video? [Click here to watch](https://www.loom.com/share/3b2dc51bcf384a339d3d3328766e4705)* | |
| --- | |
| ## π¬ Research Question | |
| > **"What made an app released in 2020 go viral?"** | |
| Defined as reaching **1M+ installs by June 2021** β within 6β18 months of launch. | |
| 2020 was chosen deliberately: the COVID-19 pandemic drove unprecedented mobile app adoption, and since the data was collected in June 2021, apps from 2020 had a consistent 6β18 month measurement window. | |
| --- | |
| ## π Key Visualizations | |
| ### 1. The Winner-Takes-All Market | |
| 86% of apps never exceed 10K installs. Viral apps (<1%) are a thin but real right tail. | |
|  | |
| --- | |
| ### 2. Does Quality = Success? (Surprising Answer: No) | |
| Rating and Installs show a weak **negative** linear correlation (r = β0.31). | |
| Viral apps attract polarising reviews β millions of users means more critics. | |
|  | |
| --- | |
| ### 3. Monetization Strategy Matters | |
| Ad-based and Hybrid (ads + IAP) apps reach significantly higher install counts. | |
| The price barrier for Premium apps dramatically limits reach. | |
|  | |
| --- | |
| ### 4. The Gap Between Tiers is Enormous | |
| Each tier is roughly **1,000x** the previous β a textbook power-law gap. | |
| | Tier | Median Installs | n apps | | |
| |------|----------------|--------| | |
| | Low | ~100 | 8,135 | | |
| | Medium | ~10,000 | 1,227 | | |
| | Viral | ~1,000,000 | 74 | | |
|  | |
| --- | |
| ## π Key Findings | |
| 1. **The market is winner-takes-all.** 86% of apps sit in the Low tier. Viral apps represent less than 1% of 2020 launches. | |
| 2. **Monetization is the strongest predictor.** Ad-based and Hybrid models (ads + IAP) significantly outperform Pure Free and Premium. | |
| 3. **Higher ratings do NOT predict more installs** (r = β0.31). Quality alone is not the driver β distribution and visibility are. | |
| 4. **Having a rating at all is a strong proxy for traction.** Rated apps contain virtually all Medium and Viral tier apps. | |
| 5. **Fresher apps win.** Regular updates correlate negatively with days_since_update (r = β0.25). | |
| 6. **The RatingβInstalls relationship is category-specific.** A global r = β0.31 masks very different dynamics per category. | |
| --- | |
| ## ποΈ Dataset | |
| | Property | Value | | |
| |----------|-------| | |
| | **Source** | [Kaggle β gauthamp10/google-playstore-apps](https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/gauthamp10/google-playstore-apps) | | |
| | **Original size** | 2.31M rows Γ 24 columns | | |
| | **Subset** | Apps released in 2020 only | | |
| | **Sample size** | 9,436 rows (Cochran's formula + stratified by Category) | | |
| | **Scraped** | June 2021 | | |
| ### Features in this dataset | |
| | Feature | Type | Description | | |
| |---------|------|-------------| | |
| | `App Name` | string | Name of the app | | |
| | `Category` | categorical | App category (48 unique) | | |
| | `Rating` | float | Average user rating (NaN if unrated) | | |
| | `Rating Count` | int | Number of user ratings | | |
| | `Installs_clean` | int | Parsed install count | | |
| | `log_installs` | float | log(1 + Installs) β for modeling | | |
| | `Size_MB` | float | App size in MB (winsorized at 65.8MB) | | |
| | `Min_Android_ver` | float | Minimum Android version required | | |
| | `Released` | datetime | Launch date (all in 2020) | | |
| | `Last Updated` | datetime | Last update date | | |
| | `Free` | bool | Whether app is free | | |
| | `Ad Supported` | bool | Whether app shows ads | | |
| | `In App Purchases` | bool | Whether app has IAP | | |
| | `Editors Choice` | bool | Whether app is Editor's Choice | | |
| | `has_rating` | bool | Whether app has crossed rating threshold | | |
| | `app_age_days` | int | Days from release to scrape date | | |
| | `days_since_update` | int | Days from last update to scrape date | | |
| | `engagement_ratio` | float | Rating Count / Installs | | |
| | `log_engagement` | float | log(1 + engagement_ratio) | | |
| | `developer_app_count` | int | Total apps by same developer in 2020 | | |
| | `monetization_model` | categorical | Pure Free / Ad-based / Freemium / Hybrid / Premium | | |
| | `success_tier` | categorical | **Target variable** β Low / Medium / Viral | | |
| --- | |
| ## π Notebook | |
| The full analysis notebook is available here: | |
| π [Open The Notebook in Google Colab](https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1YxqN2Urjli1ToxtYO9LtUztXxb5SeEcb?usp=sharing) | |
| --- | |
| ## β Questions & Answers | |
| **Q1: Is the app market democratic β can any app go viral?** | |
| No. 86% of apps released in 2020 never exceeded 10K installs. The market is winner-takes-all: less than 1% of apps reached the Viral tier (1M+ installs), and their median install count is roughly 1,000x that of Medium-tier apps. | |
| **Q2: Does a higher rating mean more installs?** | |
| Surprisingly, no. Rating and Installs show a weak negative linear correlation (r = β0.31). Viral apps attract polarising reviews β millions of users means more critics. Quality alone is not the driver; distribution and visibility are. | |
| **Q3: Does monetization strategy matter?** | |
| Yes β it's the strongest predictor in the dataset. Ad-based and Hybrid (ads + IAP) apps reach significantly higher install counts than Pure Free or Premium apps. The price barrier of Premium apps dramatically limits reach. | |
| **Q4: Does having a rating at all matter?** | |
| Yes, dramatically. Apps with a visible rating contain virtually all Medium and Viral tier apps. This reflects a chicken-and-egg dynamic: installs drive ratings, ratings drive visibility, visibility drives more installs. | |
| **Q5: Does the RatingβInstalls relationship hold across all categories?** | |
| No. The global r = β0.31 masks very different dynamics per category. In Tools and Business, there is almost no relationship. In Entertainment and Games, high-install apps cluster at specific rating bands. | |
| --- | |
| ## π§ Key Decisions | |
| | Decision | What I did | Why | | |
| |----------|-----------|-----| | |
| | **Subset to 2020** | Filtered 544,882 apps released in 2020 | Consistent 6β18 month measurement window for all apps | | |
| | **Stratified sampling** | Cochran's formula β 9,436 rows, sampled proportionally by Category | Preserve category distribution while reducing computational load | | |
| | **Rating = 0 β NaN** | Replaced zero ratings with NaN | Zero means unrated, not bad β imputing would distort analysis | | |
| | **Rating not imputed** | Kept 54.9% of Rating as NaN, created `has_rating` instead | Missing rating is a meaningful signal, not random noise | | |
| | **Size_MB winsorized** | Capped at 65.8 MB (IQR upper fence) | Extreme sizes are edge cases that distort correlations | | |
| | **Installs kept as-is** | No capping on extreme install counts | Viral outliers ARE the story β removing them defeats the purpose | | |
| | **log_installs** | Applied log(1 + Installs) transformation | Raw installs follow a power-law β log scale is needed for analysis | | |
| | **monetization_model** | Combined Free + Ad Supported + In App Purchases into 5 categories | Three boolean columns carry more meaning as a single business model feature | | |
| ``` | |
| ## π€ Author | |
| **Yonathan Levy** | |
| Econ & Entrepreneurship with Data Science Specialization | |
| Reichman Uni | |
| Class of 2028 |