emperor-mew/voidly-duration-rsf-v1

Voidly Atlas Shutdown Duration RSF v1

Version: v1 | License: CC BY 4.0

Random Survival Forest predicting expected shutdown duration. Censored events (ongoing shutdowns at observation cutoff) handled correctly.

Eval

Metric	Value
c_index	0.7280

Honest caveats

• C-index 0.728 — good discrimination, but bottom-decile predicted durations are noisy.
• Sparse censoring estimation in low-base-rate countries; uses Breslow estimator.

Citation

@misc{voidly_voidly_duration_rsf_v1,
  title  = {Voidly Atlas: voidly-duration-rsf-v1 (v1)},
  author = {Voidly},
  year   = {2026},
  url    = {https://huggingface.co/emperor-mew/voidly-duration-rsf-v1},
  note   = {Open censorship-research ML stack. CC BY 4.0.}
}

Method foundation: Ishwaran et al. 2008 — Random Survival Forests