Forecast examples and diagnostics
The model announcement features the geographically registered moving-core Mangkhut (2018) forecast. Its 50-member arrays and replay/playback receipts are linked there. These are development illustrations, not representative or untouched-test evidence.
Additional films
These earlier 50-member films retain a fixed issue-relative regional pressure patch. When the centre leaves it, only the saved coarse basin field covers that position. They use 4 hPa isobars and 23-second playback with a held ending; do not confuse them with the current moving-core Mangkhut rendering. Their original model outputs remain preserved.
- Fung-wong (2025), 7 November 00 UTC 路 provenance
- Soudelor (2015), 5 August 00 UTC 路 provenance
- Meranti (2016), 10 September 00 UTC 路 provenance
Wind and structure
Four-storm wind comparison 路 audit index 路 experimental structure method
USA one-minute and JMA ten-minute winds are separate references. Native 1.1 RMW and quadrant R34/R50/R64 are scored against matching USA definitions. Trackformer 1.2 has an auxiliary maximum-wind scalar but no native radius head. Its pressure-derived radius candidate is not an official-equivalent prediction; masked/persistent components are not learned radius forecasts.
| Storm | Exact-time comparisons | Data and assumptions |
|---|---|---|
| Fung-wong | Plot | Record |
| Soudelor | Plot | Record |
| Mangkhut | Plot | Record |
| Meranti | Plot | Record |
Full evaluation
Daily protocol 路 all daily scores 路 intensity/radius protocol 路 native intensity results 路 matched pressure curves
Route uses 1,473 starts / 270 storms; the matched native pressure comparison uses 134 starts / 40 storms. JMA pressure MAE falls from 13.53 to 12.84 hPa, with paired uncertainty including zero. JMA curve similarity is 0.7074 / 0.7118 (1.1 / 1.2), while USA curve similarity is 0.7237 / 0.6637 on 131 eligible days鈥攁 regression. A centred shape score discards level and amplitude and must be read with physical hPa timelines, not used to conceal pressure errors.