Daily Papers

We introduce AutoGluon-Tabular, an open-source AutoML framework that requires only a single line of Python to train highly accurate machine learning models on an unprocessed tabular dataset such as a CSV file. Unlike existing AutoML frameworks that primarily focus on model/hyperparameter selection, AutoGluon-Tabular succeeds by ensembling multiple models and stacking them in multiple layers. Experiments reveal that our multi-layer combination of many models offers better use of allocated training time than seeking out the best. A second contribution is an extensive evaluation of public and commercial AutoML platforms including TPOT, H2O, AutoWEKA, auto-sklearn, AutoGluon, and Google AutoML Tables. Tests on a suite of 50 classification and regression tasks from Kaggle and the OpenML AutoML Benchmark reveal that AutoGluon is faster, more robust, and much more accurate. We find that AutoGluon often even outperforms the best-in-hindsight combination of all of its competitors. In two popular Kaggle competitions, AutoGluon beat 99% of the participating data scientists after merely 4h of training on the raw data.

We introduce AutoGluon-TimeSeries - an open-source AutoML library for probabilistic time series forecasting. Focused on ease of use and robustness, AutoGluon-TimeSeries enables users to generate accurate point and quantile forecasts with just 3 lines of Python code. Built on the design philosophy of AutoGluon, AutoGluon-TimeSeries leverages ensembles of diverse forecasting models to deliver high accuracy within a short training time. AutoGluon-TimeSeries combines both conventional statistical models, machine-learning based forecasting approaches, and ensembling techniques. In our evaluation on 29 benchmark datasets, AutoGluon-TimeSeries demonstrates strong empirical performance, outperforming a range of forecasting methods in terms of both point and quantile forecast accuracy, and often even improving upon the best-in-hindsight combination of prior methods.

The first tabular foundation model, TabPFN, and its successor TabPFNv2 have impacted tabular AI substantially, with dozens of methods building on it and hundreds of applications across different use cases. This report introduces TabPFN-2.5, the next generation of our tabular foundation model, built for datasets with up to 50,000 data points and 2,000 features, a 20x increase in data cells compared to TabPFNv2. TabPFN-2.5 is now the leading method for the industry standard benchmark TabArena (which contains datasets with up to 100,000 training data points), substantially outperforming tuned tree-based models and matching the accuracy of AutoGluon 1.4, a complex four-hour tuned ensemble that even includes the previous TabPFNv2. Remarkably, default TabPFN-2.5 has a 100% win rate against default XGBoost on small to medium-sized classification datasets (<=10,000 data points, 500 features) and a 87% win rate on larger datasets up to 100K samples and 2K features (85% for regression). For production use cases, we introduce a new distillation engine that converts TabPFN-2.5 into a compact MLP or tree ensemble, preserving most of its accuracy while delivering orders-of-magnitude lower latency and plug-and-play deployment. This new release will immediately strengthen the performance of the many applications and methods already built on the TabPFN ecosystem.

Tabular data underpins most high-value prediction problems in science and industry, and TabPFN has driven the foundation model revolution for this modality. Designed with feedback from our users, TabPFN-3 builds on this foundation to scale state-of-the-art performance to datasets with 1M training rows and substantially reduce training and inference time. Pretrained exclusively on synthetic data from our prior, TabPFN-3 dramatically pushes the frontier of tabular prediction and brings substantial gains on time series, relational, and tabular-text data. On the standard tabular benchmark TabArena, a forward pass of TabPFN-3 outperforms all other models, including tuned and ensembled baselines, by a significant margin, and pareto-dominates the speed/performance frontier. On more diverse datasets, TabPFN-3 ranks first on datasets with many classes, and beats 8-hour-tuned gradient-boosted-tree baselines on datasets up to 1M training rows and 200 features. TabPFN-3 introduces test-time compute scaling to tabular foundation models. Our API offering TabPFN-3-Plus (Thinking) exploits this to beat all non-TabPFN models by over 200 Elo on TabArena, rising to 420 Elo on the largest data subset, and outperforms AutoGluon 1.5 extreme while being 10x faster, without using LLMs, real data, internet search or any other model besides TabPFN. TabPFN-3 extends the capabilities of our models, enabling SOTA prediction on relational data (new SOTA foundation model on RelBenchV1) and tabular-text data (SOTA on TabSTAR via TabPFN-3-Plus); and improves existing integrations: a specialized checkpoint, TabPFN-TS-3, ranks 2nd on the time-series benchmark fev-bench, and SHAP-value computation is up to 120x faster. TabPFN-3 achieves this performance while being up to 20x faster than TabPFN-2.5. In addition, a reduced KV cache and row-chunking scale to 1M rows on one H100 with fast inference speed.

Despite the rapid progress of LLM-based agents for planning, code generation, and debugging, their practical value for tabular machine learning remains underexplored. In this paper, we investigate a concrete use case: whether state-of-the-art agentic AI systems can design extended HPO search spaces for established tabular models that outperform the standard search spaces provided by the model authors. Specifically, we represent each tabular model as a modular pipeline covering preprocessing, embeddings, architecture, training, and inference. We then task the agent to propose candidate code implementations for each module and use a classical HPO algorithm to jointly optimize over these candidates and the model's default hyperparameters. Compared with the base HPO spaces, the expanded search spaces improve the performance of nearly every model family across a suite of 45 datasets, with average relative gains of 0.6%, rising to 2.0% on small-to-medium regression datasets. Notably, these gains come at no extra tuning cost: the enlarged spaces outperform the base under the same tuning and ensembling budgets. The gains transfer to the recent TabArena benchmark, where the agentic spaces improve the official Elo scores of four of the five model families and the two strongest agentic ensembles surpass the best AutoGluon ensemble of conventional models. Overall, our study suggests that LLM agents can provide practical value for tabular ML by expanding the design space.