Daily Papers

Video captioning models are increasingly evaluated with metrics designed for single-sentence image captions. We test whether those metrics recover human judgement on dense, multi-window video description, and find that they do not. Six frontier models captioned 196 short clips. Trained annotators post-edited every caption against a failure taxonomy fixed before annotation, once as a whole-clip overview and once window by window, and a quality-control reviewer checked each annotation, yielding 1,144 overview verdicts and 4,672 window verdicts. Reference-overlap metrics do not separate the captions reviewers accepted from those they rejected: BLEU-4 reaches an AUC of 0.510 and a CIDEr-style tf-idf cosine 0.528, and restricting references to reviewer corrections leaves BLEU-4 at 0.479 (95% CI 0.431-0.529), indistinguishable from chance. Review granularity changes what is detected. The same annotators record camera and shot errors on 2.7% of captions when reading the overview and on 12.8% when reading window by window, a 4.7x gap that holds across every robustness check we ran, on the mode most likely to need a near-total rewrite. Correct-overview rates span 54.1-72.7%, but only 4 of 15 pairwise gaps survive Bonferroni correction (5 after adjusting for reviewer and clip effects), and accuracy and derived severity order the models differently. Models with statistically indistinguishable accuracy have sharply different failure profiles, which no single scalar shows. We argue that caption evaluation should record what was wrong rather than only how often, and we report the taxonomy, the per-model profiles, the corpus properties that predict difficulty, and the code that regenerates every number in the paper.

Despite advances in Neural Machine Translation (NMT), low-resource languages like Tigrinya remain underserved due to persistent challenges, including limited corpora, inadequate tokenization strategies, and the lack of standardized evaluation benchmarks. This paper investigates transfer learning techniques using multilingual pretrained models to enhance translation quality for morphologically rich, low-resource languages. We propose a refined approach that integrates language-specific tokenization, informed embedding initialization, and domain-adaptive fine-tuning. To enable rigorous assessment, we construct a high-quality, human-aligned English-Tigrinya evaluation dataset covering diverse domains. Experimental results demonstrate that transfer learning with a custom tokenizer substantially outperforms zero-shot baselines, with gains validated by BLEU, chrF, and qualitative human evaluation. Bonferroni correction is applied to ensure statistical significance across configurations. Error analysis reveals key limitations and informs targeted refinements. This study underscores the importance of linguistically aware modeling and reproducible benchmarks in bridging the performance gap for underrepresented languages. Resources are available at https://github.com/hailaykidu/MachineT_TigEng and https://huggingface.co/Hailay/MachineT_TigEng

Machine Translation has made impressive progress in recent years offering close to human-level performance on many languages, but studies have primarily focused on high-resource languages with broad online presence and resources. With the help of growing Large Language Models, more and more low-resource languages achieve better results through the presence of other languages. However, studies have shown that not all low-resource languages can benefit from multilingual systems, especially those with insufficient training and evaluation data. In this paper, we revisit state-of-the-art Neural Machine Translation techniques to develop automatic translation systems between German and Bavarian. We investigate conditions of low-resource languages such as data scarcity and parameter sensitivity and focus on refined solutions that combat low-resource difficulties and creative solutions such as harnessing language similarity. Our experiment entails applying Back-translation and Transfer Learning to automatically generate more training data and achieve higher translation performance. We demonstrate noisiness in the data and present our approach to carry out text preprocessing extensively. Evaluation was conducted using combined metrics: BLEU, chrF and TER. Statistical significance results with Bonferroni correction show surprisingly high baseline systems, and that Back-translation leads to significant improvement. Furthermore, we present a qualitative analysis of translation errors and system limitations.

This study evaluates Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents for Dhumbal, a culturally significant multiplayer card game with imperfect information, through a systematic comparison of rule-based, search-based, and learning-based strategies. We formalize Dhumbal's mechanics and implement diverse agents, including heuristic approaches (Aggressive, Conservative, Balanced, Opportunistic), search-based methods such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) and Information Set Monte Carlo Tree Search (ISMCTS), and reinforcement learning approaches including Deep Q-Network (DQN) and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), and a random baseline. Evaluation involves within-category tournaments followed by a cross-category championship. Performance is measured via win rate, economic outcome, Jhyap success, cards discarded per round, risk assessment, and decision efficiency. Statistical significance is assessed using Welch's t-test with Bonferroni correction, effect sizes via Cohen's d, and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Across 1024 simulated rounds, the rule-based Aggressive agent achieves the highest win rate (88.3%, 95% CI: [86.3, 90.3]), outperforming ISMCTS (9.0%) and PPO (1.5%) through effective exploitation of Jhyap declarations. The study contributes a reproducible AI framework, insights into heuristic efficacy under partial information, and open-source code, thereby advancing AI research and supporting digital preservation of cultural games.

Long conversations with an AI agent create a simple problem for one user: the history is useful, but carrying it verbatim is expensive. We study personalized agent memory: one user's conversation history with an agent, distilled into a compact retrieval layer for later search. Each exchange is compressed into a compound object with four fields (exchange_core, specific_context, thematic room_assignments, and regex-extracted files_touched). The searchable distilled text averages 38 tokens per exchange. Applied to 4,182 conversations (14,340 exchanges) from 6 software engineering projects, the method reduces average exchange length from 371 to 38 tokens, yielding 11x compression. We evaluate whether personalized recall survives that compression using 201 recall-oriented queries, 107 configurations spanning 5 pure and 5 cross-layer search modes, and 5 LLM graders (214,519 consensus-graded query-result pairs). The best pure distilled configuration reaches 96% of the best verbatim MRR (0.717 vs 0.745). Results are mechanism-dependent. All 20 vector search configurations remain non-significant after Bonferroni correction, while all 20 BM25 configurations degrade significantly (effect sizes |d|=0.031-0.756). The best cross-layer setup slightly exceeds the best pure verbatim baseline (MRR 0.759). Structured distillation compresses single-user agent memory without uniformly sacrificing retrieval quality. At 1/11 the context cost, thousands of exchanges fit within a single prompt while the verbatim source remains available for drill-down. We release the implementation and analysis pipeline as open-source software.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed for tabular question answering, yet calibration on structured data is largely unstudied. This paper presents the first systematic comparison of five confidence estimation methods across five frontier LLMs and two tabular QA benchmarks. All models are severely overconfident (smooth ECE 0.35-0.64 versus 0.10-0.15 reported for textual QA). A consistent self-evaluation versus perturbation dichotomy replicates across both benchmarks and all four fully-covered models: self-evaluation methods (verbalized, P(True)) achieve AUROC 0.42-0.76, while perturbation methods (semantic entropy, self-consistency, and our Multi-Format Agreement) achieve AUROC 0.78-0.86. Per-model paired bootstrap tests reject the null at p<0.001 after Holm-Bonferroni correction, and a 3-seed check on GPT-4o-mini gives a per-seed standard deviation of only 0.006. The paper proposes Multi-Format Agreement (MFA), which exploits the lossless and deterministic serialization variation unique to structured data (Markdown, HTML, JSON, CSV) to estimate confidence at 20% lower API cost than sampling baselines. MFA reduces ECE by 44-63%, generalizes across all four models on TableBench (mean AUROC 0.80), and combines complementarily with sampling: an MFA + self-consistency ensemble lifts AUROC from 0.74 to 0.82. A secondary contribution, structure-aware recalibration, improves AUROC by +10 percentage points over standard post-hoc methods.

Heart failure is a leading cause of global mortality, necessitating improved diagnostic strategies. Classical machine learning models struggle with challenges such as high-dimensional data, class imbalances, poor feature representations, and a lack of interpretability. While quantum machine learning holds promise, current hybrid models have not fully exploited quantum advantages. In this paper, we propose the Kolmogorov-Arnold Classical-Quantum Dual-Channel Neural Network (KACQ-DCNN), a novel hybrid architecture that replaces traditional multilayer perceptrons with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs), enabling learnable univariate activation functions. Our KACQ-DCNN 4-qubit, 1-layer model outperforms 37 benchmark models, including 16 classical and 12 quantum neural networks, achieving an accuracy of 92.03%, with macro-average precision, recall, and F1 scores of 92.00%. It also achieved a ROC-AUC of 94.77%, surpassing other models by significant margins, as validated by paired t-tests with a significance threshold of 0.0056 (after Bonferroni correction). Ablation studies highlight the synergistic effect of classical-quantum integration, improving performance by about 2% over MLP variants. Additionally, LIME and SHAP explainability techniques enhance feature interpretability, while conformal prediction provides robust uncertainty quantification. Our results demonstrate that KACQ-DCNN improves cardiovascular diagnostics by combining high accuracy with interpretability and uncertainty quantification.

As frontier AI models are deployed in high-stakes decision pipelines, their ability to maintain metacognitive stability -- knowing what they do not know, detecting errors, seeking clarification -- under adversarial pressure is a critical safety requirement. Current safety evaluations focus on detecting strategic deception (scheming); we investigate a more fundamental failure mode: cognitive collapse. We present SCHEMA, an evaluation of 11 frontier models from 8 vendors across 67,221 scored records using a 6-condition factorial design with dual-classifier scoring. We find that 8 of 11 models suffer catastrophic metacognitive degradation under adversarial pressure, with accuracy dropping by up to 30.2 percentage points (all p < 2 times 10^{-8}, surviving Bonferroni correction). Crucially, we identify a "Compliance Trap": through factorial isolation and a benign distraction control, we demonstrate that collapse is driven not by the psychological content of survival threats, but by compliance-forcing instructions that override epistemic boundaries. Removing the compliance suffix restores performance even under active threat. Models with advanced reasoning capabilities exhibit the most severe absolute degradation, while Anthropic's Constitutional AI demonstrates near-perfect immunity -- not from superior capability (Google's Gemini matches its baseline accuracy) but from alignment-specific training. We release the complete dataset and evaluation infrastructure.

Background: The positive predictive value (PPV) of large language model (LLM)-based proofreading for radiology reports is limited due to the low error prevalence. Purpose: To assess whether a three-pass LLM framework enhances PPV and reduces operational costs compared with baseline approaches. Materials and Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on 1,000 consecutive radiology reports (250 each: radiography, ultrasonography, CT, MRI) from the MIMIC-III database. Two external datasets (CheXpert and Open-i) were validation sets. Three LLM frameworks were tested: (1) single-prompt detector; (2) extractor plus detector; and (3) extractor, detector, and false-positive verifier. Precision was measured by PPV and absolute true positive rate (aTPR). Efficiency was calculated from model inference charges and reviewer remuneration. Statistical significance was tested using cluster bootstrap, exact McNemar tests, and Holm-Bonferroni correction. Results: Framework PPV increased from 0.063 (95% CI, 0.036-0.101, Framework 1) to 0.079 (0.049-0.118, Framework 2), and significantly to 0.159 (0.090-0.252, Framework 3; P<.001 vs. baselines). aTPR remained stable (0.012-0.014; P>=.84). Operational costs per 1,000 reports dropped to USD 5.58 (Framework 3) from USD 9.72 (Framework 1) and USD 6.85 (Framework 2), reflecting reductions of 42.6% and 18.5%, respectively. Human-reviewed reports decreased from 192 to 88. External validation supported Framework 3's superior PPV (CheXpert 0.133, Open-i 0.105) and stable aTPR (0.007). Conclusion: A three-pass LLM framework significantly enhanced PPV and reduced operational costs, maintaining detection performance, providing an effective strategy for AI-assisted radiology report quality assurance.

A typed decision maps evidence, a question and a fixed set of options to a probability for every option, computed in one forward pass, by reading a language model's logits or a small head over its hidden states, instead of generating and parsing text. The commercial system Jev popularised this System~1 interface, and open reproductions have followed. We report two uses of the pattern. Part I describes an in-house System~1 judge that triages about 148K agentic coding session records for a training corpus. It replaces a frontier LLM judge that cost on the order of \1,000 per pass and whose stored labels matched a fresh two-judge consensus on only 26.9% of the sessions where the two judges agreed; a self-hosted frozen backbone with a rank-16 LoRA adapter and a pointer head answers three typed questions in one forward pass, judges 1,000 sessions in about three minutes of one GPU, about 0.06 at a reference rate and roughly 1\% of the frontier judge's cost, and keeps every session inside the organisation. Part II asks whether a readout that adds no parameters can be competitive and whether training one helps. Applying the public Eikos recipe and corpus of about 25K decisions to three further backbones (1B, 2B and 35B), we read the frozen output layer of a LoRA-adapted decoder. On the 111 public hard items of JevBench our single-seed 35B, developed with those items in view, scores 79.3\%, not significantly different from the commercial reference (73.0\%, unadjusted p=0.12) and ahead of five open systems after Holm--Bonferroni correction; our 2B is ahead of all four kev checkpoints on the leaderboard. A single-seed ablation finds no detectable benefit from training the 26 letter rows of the output layer, and a retrain on a later corpus release moves the 2B's hard-tier accuracy by 11.7 points, which shows how little small evaluations resolve.

Sparse autoencoders can localize where concepts live in language models, but not how they interact during multi-step reasoning. We propose Causal Concept Graphs (CCG): a directed acyclic graph over sparse, interpretable latent features, where edges capture learned causal dependencies between concepts. We combine task-conditioned sparse autoencoders for concept discovery with DAGMA-style differentiable structure learning for graph recovery and introduce the Causal Fidelity Score (CFS) to evaluate whether graph-guided interventions induce larger downstream effects than random ones. On ARC-Challenge, StrategyQA, and LogiQA with GPT-2 Medium, across five seeds (n{=}15 paired runs), CCG achieves CFS=5.654pm0.625, outperforming ROME-style tracing (3.382pm0.233), SAE-only ranking (2.479pm0.196), and a random baseline (1.032pm0.034), with p<0.0001 after Bonferroni correction. Learned graphs are sparse (5-6\% edge density), domain-specific, and stable across seeds.

Understanding and retrieving related real-world events based on their temporal dynamics is a fundamental challenge in time-sensitive applications such as forecasting, information retrieval, and social analysis. Existing methods often rely on semantic similarity or global time-series alignment, which overlook the transient and directional dependencies that frequently underlie real-world correlations. In this work, we introduce EventConnector, a framework that constructs a temporal event graph capturing localized co-fluctuations and lead-lag relationships between events through their time-series trajectories. We further propose EC-Fusion, an adaptive retrieval mechanism that fuses EventConnector's graph-based scores with a complementary Granger-causal signal via a graph-quality-aware mixing weight. Across two real-world prediction market benchmarks (Polymarket and Kalshi) and nine forecasting architectures evaluated over three random seeds, EC-Fusion is the best non-oracle retrieval method on 17/18 model--dataset cells, reducing RMSE by 6.87% on average (up to 10.86%) over the strongest comparable retrieval baseline, with statistical significance at p < 0.01 after Holm--Bonferroni correction. These results highlight the effectiveness of temporally grounded graph modeling, augmented with causal-signal fusion, in capturing latent event relationships beyond what semantic similarity or traditional alignment techniques can offer.

Joint-embedding predictive architectures (JEPAs) propose that a model should learn more useful abstractions when trained to predict latent representations rather than observed outputs. For autoregressive language-model fine-tuning the principle entails a stricter requirement: the induced hidden-state geometry must reach the language-model head and improve the decoded task metric. We test that requirement under a fixed Llama-3.2-1B-Instruct LoRA harness on natural-language-to-regex generation, comparing twenty-two training-time auxiliaries across trajectory-shape regularisation, distributional constraints, predictor/target asymmetry, Fisher-metric Jacobi residuals, and a decoder-visible JEPA objective constructed to lie in cross-entropy's positive cone. The empirical answer is a structured null: several auxiliaries clear single-cell paired α= 0.10 without correction (T3-Local at Δ= +2.53~pp, p = 0.003 being the strongest), but none survives Bonferroni or Holm--Bonferroni at the relevant family-wise threshold, even though many change curvature, anisotropy, variance, and gradient direction. Decoder-visible JEPA yields the first positive auxiliary--cross-entropy gradient cosine in the study, yet exact match remains inside seed noise; a full-fine-tuning replication of the same auxiliary at n = 5 seeds reproduces the null on both benchmarks (TURK: Δ= +0.04~pp, p_{paired} = 0.96; SYNTH: Δ= +0.52~pp, p_{paired} = 0.28), so the null is robust across LoRA and full fine-tuning for the decoder-visible construction. Hidden-state representation work and decoded-task accuracy are therefore weakly coupled in this regime; we accordingly reframe LLM-domain JEPA evaluation as a coupling problem, in which the operative question is under which metrics useful hidden geometry becomes decoder-visible task signal.

Side-channel evaluators routinely inspect leakage tests while acquisition is still running, and extend or stop the campaign based on what they see. Fixed-horizon screening such as the Welch t-test with threshold |t|>4.5 gives no error guarantee for this monitored decision rule. We study anytime-valid leakage detection based on testing by betting: SKIT-type swap-pair e-processes whose false-alarm probability is controlled uniformly over time under an explicit conditional symmetry null. In matched comparisons that share the frozen witness, rows and payoff, first-crossing detection needed 1.68-2.00times the traces of a fixed-horizon randomization test at 80% detection on synthetic streams, and 1.68-2.38times on degraded recordings from an open ML-KEM electromagnetic dataset with the primary Ridge witness at α=0.05. With the same primary witness and level, on undegraded reference and pqm4 recordings the monitored procedure stopped early: its median stopping point was 62-72 and 146-316 evaluation traces, i.e. 2-8% of a conservative 4096-trace budget. Under exact designed nulls on the recorded backgrounds, repeated-look |t|>4.5 screening over all 13000-20000 samples raised a false alarm in 2.7-12.9% of replicates, against 0.0-4.7% for terminal-only screening and no rejection by a sample-wise e-Bonferroni process, which in a prespecified follow-up detected natural-label associations in 4 of 4 backgrounds after 840-3288 traces. All recordings come from one device, and natural-label results are descriptive; we state the assumptions each claim requires.