Daily Papers

This paper describes the 2018 Planck CMB likelihoods, following a hybrid approach similar to the 2015 one, with different approximations at low and high multipoles, and implementing several methodological and analysis refinements. With more realistic simulations, and better correction and modelling of systematics, we can now make full use of the High Frequency Instrument polarization data. The low-multipole 100x143 GHz EE cross-spectrum constrains the reionization optical-depth parameter tau to better than 15% (in combination with with the other low- and high-ell likelihoods). We also update the 2015 baseline low-ell joint TEB likelihood based on the Low Frequency Instrument data, which provides a weaker tau constraint. At high multipoles, a better model of the temperature-to-polarization leakage and corrections for the effective calibrations of the polarization channels (polarization efficiency or PE) allow us to fully use the polarization spectra, improving the constraints on the LambdaCDM parameters by 20 to 30% compared to TT-only constraints. Tests on the modelling of the polarization demonstrate good consistency, with some residual modelling uncertainties, the accuracy of the PE modelling being the main limitation. Using our various tests, simulations, and comparison between different high-ell implementations, we estimate the consistency of the results to be better than the 0.5sigma level. Minor curiosities already present before (differences between ell<800 and ell>800 parameters or the preference for more smoothing of the C_ell peaks) are shown to be driven by the TT power spectrum and are not significantly modified by the inclusion of polarization. Overall, the legacy Planck CMB likelihoods provide a robust tool for constraining the cosmological model and represent a reference for future CMB observations. (Abridged)

We update predictions for observables in the "delicate" D3/anti-D3 inflationary model on the conifold. We use a full CMB likelihood calculation to assess goodness-of-fit, which is necessary because in this model the zeta power spectrum often cannot be modelled as a power-law over observable scales. For the first time we are able to provide accurate forecasts for the amplitude of three-point correlations. In a significant portion of its parameter space the model follows Maldacena's single-field prediction fNL ~ -(5/12)(ns-1) if nt << 1. Therefore |fNL| is usually small when the power spectrum satisfies observational constraints. In a small number of cases the bispectrum is instead dominated by effects from rapid switching between angular minima. The resulting amplitudes are larger, but mostly with unacceptable spectral behaviour. In the most extreme case we obtain |fNLeq| ~ 75 at kt/3 = 0.002/Mpc. It has been suggested that the quasi-single field inflation ("QSFI") mechanism could produce significant 3-point correlations in this model. We do observe rare shifts in amplitude between equilateral and squeezed configurations that could possibly be associated with QSFI effects, but more investigation is needed to establish the full bispectrum shape. There is evidence of "shape" running between equilateral and squeezed configurations that may be inherited from the scale dependence of the spectrum. We explore the dependence of observables on discrete choices such as the truncation point of the potential. Our analysis illustrates the advantages of a standard format for information exchange within the inflationary model-building and testing community.

An axion-like field comprising sim 10% of the energy density of the universe near matter-radiation equality is a candidate to resolve the Hubble tension; this is the "early dark energy" (EDE) model. However, as shown in Hill et al. (2020), the model fails to simultaneously resolve the Hubble tension and maintain a good fit to both cosmic microwave background (CMB) and large-scale structure (LSS) data. Here, we use redshift-space galaxy clustering data to sharpen constraints on the EDE model. We perform the first EDE analysis using the full-shape power spectrum likelihood from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS), based on the effective field theory (EFT) of LSS. The inclusion of this likelihood in the EDE analysis yields a 25% tighter error bar on H_0 compared to primary CMB data alone, yielding H_0 = 68.54^{+0.52}_{-0.95} km/s/Mpc (68% CL). In addition, we constrain the maximum fractional energy density contribution of the EDE to f_{rm EDE} < 0.072 (95% CL). We explicitly demonstrate that the EFT BOSS likelihood yields much stronger constraints on EDE than the standard BOSS likelihood. Including further information from photometric LSS surveys,the constraints narrow by an additional 20%, yielding H_0 = 68.73^{+0.42}_{-0.69} km/s/Mpc (68% CL) and f_{rm EDE}<0.053 (95% CL). These bounds are obtained without including local-universe H_0 data, which is in strong tension with the CMB and LSS, even in the EDE model. We also refute claims that MCMC analyses of EDE that omit SH0ES from the combined dataset yield misleading posteriors. Finally, we demonstrate that upcoming Euclid/DESI-like spectroscopic galaxy surveys can greatly improve the EDE constraints. We conclude that current data preclude the EDE model as a resolution of the Hubble tension, and that future LSS surveys can close the remaining parameter space of this model.

The Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) radiation B mode polarization signal contains the unique signature of primordial metric perturbations produced during the inflation. The separation of the weak CMB B-mode signal from strong foreground contamination in observed maps is a complex task, and proposed new generation low noise satellite missions compete with the weak signal level of this gravitational background. In this article, for the first time, we employ a foreground model-independent internal linear combination (ILC) method to reconstruct the CMB B mode signal using simulated observations over large angular scales of the sky of 6 frequency bands of future generation CMB mission Probe of Inflation and Cosmic Origins (PICO). We estimate the joint CMB B mode posterior density following the interleaving Gibbs steps of B mode angular power spectrum and cleaned map samples using the ILC method. We extend and improve the earlier reported Bayesian ILC method to analyze weak CMB B mode reconstruction by introducing noise bias corrections at two stages during the ILC weight estimation. By performing 200 Monte Carlo simulations of the Bayesian ILC method, we find that our method can reconstruct the CMB signals and the joint posterior density accurately over large angular scales of the sky. We estimate Blackwell-Rao statistics of the marginal density of CMB B mode angular power spectrum and use them to estimate the joint density of scalar to tensor ratio r and a lensing power spectrum amplitude A^{lens}. Using 200 Monte Carlo simulations of the delensing approach, we find that our method can achieve an unbiased detection of the primordial gravitational wave signal r with more than 8σ significance for levels of r geqslant 0.01.

Repeated studies of the CMB based on WMAP data have revealed an apparent asymmetry in the distribution of temperature fluctuations over the celestial sphere. The studies indicate that the amplitudes of temperature fluctuations are higher in one hemisphere than in the other. We consider whether this asymmetry could originate from a large scale inhomogeneity in the gravitational field enclosing the present Hubble volume. We examine what effect the presence of an inhomogeneity in the gravitational field of size larger than the present Hubble radius would have on the temperature distribution of the CMB and start eliciting its observational signature in the CMB power spectrum. The covariance function contains, in addition to the diagonal entries of the conventional CMB temperature anisostropy power spectrum, non-diagonal entries. We find that specific non-diagonal entries of the covariance function are sensitive to the strength of the inhomogeneity, while the diagonal entries are not. These non-diagonal entries, which are not present in the case of a homogeneous background geometry, are observational signatures of a large-scale inhomogeneity in the background geometry of the universe. Furthermore, we find that an inhomogeneity in the gravitational potential of super-Hubble size would yield a power asymmetry in the CMB with maximal asymmetry at an angle of 90 degrees to the CMB dipole axis. The axis of the CMB power asymmetry was recently estimated by Eriksen et. al. to be located at angles between 83 and 96 degrees to the CMB dipole axis, which is consistent with the prediction of our model. This implies that the location of the observed power asymmetry in the CMB sky could be accounted for by a large-scale inhomogeneity in the gravitational field enclosing the present Hubble volume.

We use new cosmic microwave background (CMB) primary temperature and polarization anisotropy measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6) to test foundational assumptions of the standard cosmological model and set constraints on extensions to it. We derive constraints from the ACT DR6 power spectra alone, as well as in combination with legacy data from Planck. To break geometric degeneracies, we include ACT and Planck CMB lensing data and baryon acoustic oscillation data from DESI Year-1, and further add supernovae measurements from Pantheon+ for models that affect the late-time expansion history. We verify the near-scale-invariance (running of the spectral index d n_s/dln k = 0.0062 pm 0.0052) and adiabaticity of the primordial perturbations. Neutrino properties are consistent with Standard Model predictions: we find no evidence for new light, relativistic species that are free-streaming (N_{rm eff} = 2.86 pm 0.13, which combined with external BBN data becomes N_{rm eff} = 2.89 pm 0.11), for non-zero neutrino masses (sum m_nu < 0.082 eV at 95% CL), or for neutrino self-interactions. We also find no evidence for self-interacting dark radiation (N_{rm idr} < 0.134), early-universe variation of fundamental constants, early dark energy, primordial magnetic fields, or modified recombination. Our data are consistent with standard BBN, the FIRAS-inferred CMB temperature, a dark matter component that is collisionless and with only a small fraction allowed as axion-like particles, a cosmological constant, and the late-time growth rate predicted by general relativity. We find no statistically significant preference for a departure from the baseline LambdaCDM model. In general, models introduced to increase the Hubble constant or to decrease the amplitude of density fluctuations inferred from the primary CMB are not favored by our data.

We present cosmological parameter results from the final full-mission Planck measurements of the CMB anisotropies. We find good consistency with the standard spatially-flat 6-parameter LambdaCDM cosmology having a power-law spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations (denoted "base LambdaCDM" in this paper), from polarization, temperature, and lensing, separately and in combination. A combined analysis gives dark matter density Omega_c h^2 = 0.120pm 0.001, baryon density Omega_b h^2 = 0.0224pm 0.0001, scalar spectral index n_s = 0.965pm 0.004, and optical depth tau = 0.054pm 0.007 (in this abstract we quote 68,% confidence regions on measured parameters and 95,% on upper limits). The angular acoustic scale is measured to 0.03,% precision, with 100theta_*=1.0411pm 0.0003. These results are only weakly dependent on the cosmological model and remain stable, with somewhat increased errors, in many commonly considered extensions. Assuming the base-LambdaCDM cosmology, the inferred late-Universe parameters are: Hubble constant H_0 = (67.4pm 0.5)km/s/Mpc; matter density parameter Omega_m = 0.315pm 0.007; and matter fluctuation amplitude sigma_8 = 0.811pm 0.006. We find no compelling evidence for extensions to the base-LambdaCDM model. Combining with BAO we constrain the effective extra relativistic degrees of freedom to be N_{rm eff} = 2.99pm 0.17, and the neutrino mass is tightly constrained to sum m_nu< 0.12eV. The CMB spectra continue to prefer higher lensing amplitudes than predicted in base -LambdaCDM at over 2,sigma, which pulls some parameters that affect the lensing amplitude away from the base-LambdaCDM model; however, this is not supported by the lensing reconstruction or (in models that also change the background geometry) BAO data. (Abridged)

We reanalyze the spectral lag data for GRB 160625B using frequentist inference in order to constrain the energy scale (E_{QG}) of Lorentz Invariance Violation (LIV). For this purpose, we use profile likelihood to deal with the astrophysical nuisance parameters. This is in contrast to Bayesian inference implemented in previous works, where marginalization was carried out over the nuisance parameters. We show that with profile likelihood, we do not find a global minimum for chi^2 as a function of E_{QG} below the Planck scale for both linear and quadratic models of LIV, whereas bounded credible intervals were previously obtained using Bayesian inference. Therefore, we can set one-sided lower limits in a straightforward manner. We find that E_{QG} geq 2.55 times 10^{16} GeV and E_{QG} geq 1.85 times 10^7 GeV at 95\% c.l., for linear and quadratic LIV, respectively. Therefore, this is the first proof-of-principles application of profile likelihood method to the analysis of GRB spectral lag data to constrain LIV.

Minkowski functionals quantify the morphology of smooth random fields. They are widely used to probe statistical properties of cosmological fields. Analytic formulae for ensemble expectations of Minkowski functionals are well known for Gaussian and mildly non-Gaussian fields. In this paper we extend the formulae to composite fields which are sums of two fields and explicitly derive the expressions for the sum of uncorrelated mildly non-Gaussian and Gaussian fields. These formulae are applicable to observed data which is usually a sum of the true signal and one or more secondary fields that can be either noise, or some residual contaminating signal. Our formulae provide explicit quantification of the effect of the secondary field on the morphology and statistical nature of the true signal. As examples, we apply the formulae to determine how the presence of Gaussian noise can bias the morphological properties and statistical nature of Gaussian and non-Gaussian CMB temperature maps.

We describe a novel method for the application of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to fields defined on the sphere, using the HEALPix tessellation scheme. Specifically, We have developed a pixel-based approach to implement convolutional layers on the spherical surface, similarly to what is commonly done for CNNs in Euclidian space. The algorithm is fully integrable with existing libraries for NNs (e.g., PyTorch or TensorFlow). We present two applications: (i) recognition of handwritten digits projected on the sphere; (ii) estimation of cosmological parameter from Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) simulated maps. We have built a simple NN architecture, consisting in four convolutional+pooling layers, and have used it for all the applications explored herein. For what concerns the handwritten digits, our CNN reaches an accuracy of about 95%, comparable with other existing spherical CNNs. For CMB applications, we have tested the CNN on the estimation of a "mock" parameter, defining the angular scale at which the power spectrum of a Gaussian field projected on the sphere peaks. We have estimated this parameter directly from maps, in several cases: temperature and polarization, presence of noise and partial sky coverage. In all the cases, the NN performances are comparable with those from standard spectrum-based bayesian methods. We demonstrate, for the first time, the capability of CNNs to extract information from polarization fields and to distinguish between E and B-modes. Lastly, we have applied our CNN to the estimation of the Thomson scattering optical depth at reionization (tau) from simulated CMB maps. Even without any specific optimization of the NN architecture, we reach an accuracy comparable with standard bayesian methods. This work represents a first step towards the exploitation of NNs in CMB parameter estimation and demonstrates the feasibility of our approach.

The measurements of the temperature and polarisation anisotropies of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) by the ESA Planck mission have strongly supported the current concordance model of cosmology. However, the latest cosmological data release from ESA Planck mission still has a powerful potential to test new data science algorithms and inference techniques. In this paper, we use advanced Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, such as Neural Networks (NNs), to discern among different underlying cosmological models at the angular power spectra level, using both temperature and polarisation Planck 18 data. We test two different models beyond LambdaCDM: a modified gravity model: the Hu-Sawicki model, and an alternative inflationary model: a feature-template in the primordial power spectrum. Furthermore, we also implemented an interpretability method based on SHAP values to evaluate the learning process and identify the most relevant elements that drive our architecture to certain outcomes. We find that our NN is able to distinguish between different angular power spectra successfully for both alternative models and LambdaCDM. We conclude by explaining how archival scientific data has still a strong potential to test novel data science algorithms that are interesting for the next generation of cosmological experiments.

We investigate the formation of large peaks in the inflationary curvature power spectrum from double-well potentials. In such scenarios, the initial CMB spectrum is created at large field values. Subsequently, the inflaton will cross one of the minima and will decelerate rapidly as it reaches the local maximum at the origin, either falling back or crossing it. During this final phase, a significant peak in the curvature power spectrum can be generated. Our analysis reveals that this class of models produces more pronounced peaks than the more commonly studied quasi-inflection point scenarios with less tuning for the model parameters. Finally, we construct an explicit theoretically motivated inflationary scenario that is consistent with the latest CMB observations and capable of generating sufficiently large curvature perturbations for primordial black holes.

Using a fully Bayesian approach, Gaussian Process regression is extended to include marginalisation over the kernel choice and kernel hyperparameters. In addition, Bayesian model comparison via the evidence enables direct kernel comparison. The calculation of the joint posterior was implemented with a transdimensional sampler which simultaneously samples over the discrete kernel choice and their hyperparameters by embedding these in a higher-dimensional space, from which samples are taken using nested sampling. Kernel recovery and mean function inference were explored on synthetic data from exoplanet transit light curve simulations. Subsequently, the method was extended to marginalisation over mean functions and noise models and applied to the inference of the present-day Hubble parameter, H_0, from real measurements of the Hubble parameter as a function of redshift, derived from the cosmologically model-independent cosmic chronometer and ΛCDM-dependent baryon acoustic oscillation observations. The inferred H_0 values from the cosmic chronometers, baryon acoustic oscillations and combined datasets are H_0= 66 pm 6, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1}, H_0= 67 pm 10, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1} and H_0= 69 pm 6, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1}, respectively. The kernel posterior of the cosmic chronometers dataset prefers a non-stationary linear kernel. Finally, the datasets are shown to be not in tension with ln R=12.17pm 0.02.

We present a new approach to constructing and fitting dipoles and higher-order multipoles in synthetic galaxy samples over the sky. Within our Bayesian paradigm, we illustrate that this technique is robust to masked skies, allowing us to make credible inferences about the relative contributions of each multipole. We also show that dipoles can be recovered in surveys with small footprints, determining the requisite source counts required for concrete estimation of the dipole parameters. This work is motivated by recent probes of the cosmic dipole in galaxy catalogues. Namely, the kinematic dipole of the Cosmic Microwave Background, as arising from the motion of our heliocentric frame at approx 370 km,s^{-1}, implies that an analogous dipole should be observed in the number counts of galaxies in flux-density-limited samples. Recent studies have reported a dipole aligning with the kinematic dipole but with an anomalously large amplitude. Accordingly, our new technique will be important as forthcoming galaxy surveys are made available and for revisiting previous data.

Non-linear interactions during inflation generate non-Gaussianities in the distribution of primordial curvature. In many theories, the physics is scale-invariant, such that the induced three-point function depends solely on a dimensionless shape function S(x,y)sim k^6B_ζ(kx,ky,k). To confront such models with observations, one typically builds specialized estimators for each shape, then applies them to cosmic microwave background datasets at significant computational expense. In this Letter, we take a different approach, directly reconstructing S(x,y) from observations using an efficient logarithmically-binned estimator in primordial-space (motivated by the modal program). Applying this to temperature and polarization maps from Planck, we obtain high-resolution shape measurements across the full (x,y)-plane, including squeezed limits. Our approach is close-to-optimal, highly interpretable, and preserves the information content on (optimally-analyzed) standard templates within approx 10%; moreover, we can use it to assess the scale-dependence of our constraints, finding that Planck is sensitive to approx 6 e-folds of non-Gaussian evolution with a peak sensitivity around 0.1h,Mpc^{-1}. Since we work directly in shape-space, data and theory can be compared in milliseconds. As an example, we perform a search for massive particle exchange using a suite of over 20,000 theoretical templates computed with exact bootstrap methods (for the first time) across a wide range of masses, spins, and sound-speeds; the spin-two analysis yields a maximum significance of 2.6σ. Our approach can be used to probe a wide range of scale-invariant models in orders-of-magnitude less time than with direct estimators, allowing the inflationary paradigm to be explored in new ways.

Primordial Magnetic Fields (PMFs) -- magnetic fields originating in the early Universe and permeating the cosmological scales today -- can explain the observed microGauss-level magnetisation of galaxies and their clusters. In light of current and upcoming all-sky radio surveys, PMFs have drawn attention not only as major candidates for explaining the large-scale magnetisation of the Universe, but also as potential probes of early-Universe physics. In this paper, using cosmological simulations coupled with light-cone analysis, we study for the first time the imprints of the PMF structure on the mean rotation measure (RM) originating in the intergalactic medium (IGM), langle RM_{IGM}rangle. We introduce a new method for producing full-sky RM_{IGM} distributions and analyse the autocorrelation of RM_{IGM} on small and large angular scales; we find that PMF structures indeed show distinct signatures. The large-scale uniform model (characterised by an initially unlimited coherence scale) leads to correlations up to 90 degrees, while correlations for small-scale stochastic PMF models drop by factor of 100 at 0.17, 0.13 and 0.11 degrees angular scales, corresponding to 5.24, 4.03 and 3.52 Mpc scales (at z=2 redshift) for magnetic fields with comoving 3.49, 1.81, 1.00 Mpc/h coherence scales, respectively; the correlation amplitude of the PMF model with comoving sim 19 Mpc/h coherence scale drops only by factor of 10 at 1 degree (30.6 Mpc). These results suggests that improvements in the modelling of Galactic RM will be necessary to investigate the signature of large-scale correlated PMFs. A comparison of langle RM_{IGM}rangle redshift dependence obtained from our simulations with that from the LOFAR Two-metre Sky Survey shows agreement with our previous upper limits' estimates on the PMF strength derived from RM-rms analysis.

We present cosmological results from the measurement of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) in galaxy, quasar and Lyman-α forest tracers from the first year of observations from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), to be released in the DESI Data Release 1. DESI BAO provide robust measurements of the transverse comoving distance and Hubble rate, or their combination, relative to the sound horizon, in seven redshift bins from over 6 million extragalactic objects in the redshift range 0.1<z<4.2. DESI BAO data alone are consistent with the standard flat ΛCDM cosmological model with a matter density Ω_m=0.295pm 0.015. Paired with a BBN prior and the robustly measured acoustic angular scale from the CMB, DESI requires H_0=(68.52pm0.62) km/s/Mpc. In conjunction with CMB anisotropies from Planck and CMB lensing data from Planck and ACT, we find Ω_m=0.307pm 0.005 and H_0=(67.97pm0.38) km/s/Mpc. Extending the baseline model with a constant dark energy equation of state parameter w, DESI BAO alone require w=-0.99^{+0.15}_{-0.13}. In models with a time-varying dark energy equation of state parametrized by w_0 and w_a, combinations of DESI with CMB or with SN~Ia individually prefer w_0>-1 and w_a<0. This preference is 2.6σ for the DESI+CMB combination, and persists or grows when SN~Ia are added in, giving results discrepant with the ΛCDM model at the 2.5σ, 3.5σ or 3.9σ levels for the addition of Pantheon+, Union3, or DES-SN5YR datasets respectively. For the flat ΛCDM model with the sum of neutrino mass sum m_ν free, combining the DESI and CMB data yields an upper limit sum m_ν< 0.072 (0.113) eV at 95% confidence for a sum m_ν>0 (sum m_ν>0.059) eV prior. These neutrino-mass constraints are substantially relaxed in models beyond ΛCDM. [Abridged.]

We investigate scale-dependent modifications to the primordial scalar power spectrum as potential solutions to the Hubble tension. We use the Fisher-bias formalism, recently adapted to examine perturbed recombination solutions to the Hubble tension, and extend its range of validity with an iterative method. We first analyze the Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy data, demonstrating the existence of modifications to the primordial power spectrum capable of fully resolving the tension between Planck and SH0ES. As a proof of concept, we interpret these solutions in terms of small, time-dependent variations in the first slow roll parameter or in the sound speed of curvature perturbations during a stage of primordial inflation. However, these solutions are associated with a low total matter density Ω_m, which makes them inconsistent with baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and uncalibrated supernovae (SNIa) data. When incorporating additional BOSS and PantheonPlus data, the solutions that reduce the Hubble tension tend to overfit Planck CMB data to compensate for the worsened fit to BAO and SNIa data, making them less compelling. These findings suggest that modifying the primordial power spectrum alone is unlikely to provide a robust resolution to the tension and highlight how the viability of such data-driven solutions depends on the specific datasets considered, emphasizing the role of future high-precision observations in further constraining possible resolutions to the tension.

We analyse the robustness of the DESI 2024 cosmological inference from fits to the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum to uncertainties in the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model of the galaxy-halo connection and the choice of priors on nuisance parameters. We assess variations in the recovered cosmological parameters across a range of mocks populated with different HOD models and find that shifts are often greater than 20% of the expected statistical uncertainties from the DESI data. We encapsulate the effect of such shifts in terms of a systematic covariance term, C_{rm HOD}, and an additional diagonal contribution quantifying the impact of our choice of nuisance parameter priors on the ability of the effective field theory (EFT) model to correctly recover the cosmological parameters of the simulations. These two covariance contributions are designed to be added to the usual covariance term, C_{rm stat}, describing the statistical uncertainty in the power spectrum measurement, in order to fairly represent these sources of systematic uncertainty. This approach is more general and robust to choices of model free parameters or additional external datasets used in cosmological fits than the alternative approach of adding systematic uncertainties at the level of the recovered marginalised parameter posteriors. We compare the approaches within the context of a fixed LambdaCDM model and demonstrate that our method gives conservative estimates of the systematic uncertainty that nevertheless have little impact on the final posteriors obtained from DESI data.

The Population III.1 theory for supermassive black hole (SMBH) formation predicts a very early (zsim20-25), transient phase, ``The Flash'', of cosmic reionization powered by supermassive stars that are SMBH progenitors. The universe then quickly recombined to become mostly neutral, with this state persisting until galaxies begin to reionize intergalactic gas again at zsim 10. The overall Thomson scattering optical depth, tau, from The Flash has been shown to be tau_{rm PopIII.1}sim0.03, leading to a total tausim0.08-0.09. Such a value, while significantly larger than that previously inferred from {\it Planck} observations of the low-l EE polarization power spectrum of the CMB, can help relieve several ``tensions'' faced by the standard LambdaCDM cosmological model, especially the preference for negative neutrino masses and dynamic dark energy. Here we compute EE power spectra of example models of The Flash. We find that, because of its very high redshift, the contribution to llesssim8 modes is dramatically reduced compared to usual low-z reionization models for the same value of tau, while the power at lgtrsim8 is boosted. Thus the Pop III.1 reionization scenario provides a natural way to increase tau, while remaining closer to the latest CMB low-l polarization observations.

We study future observational constraints on cosmic string parameters from various types of next-generation experiments: direct detection of gravitational waves (GWs), pulsar timing array, and the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We consider both GW burst and stochastic GW background searches by ground- and space-based interferometers as well as GW background detection in pulsar timing experiments. We also consider cosmic string contributions to the CMB temperature and polarization anisotropies. These different types of observations offer independent probes of cosmic strings and may enable us to investigate cosmic string properties if the signature is detected. In this paper, we evaluate the power of future experiments to constrain cosmic string parameters, such as the string tension Gmu, the initial loop size alpha, and the reconnection probability p, by performing Fisher information matrix calculations. We find that combining the information from the different types of observations breaks parameter degeneracies and provides more stringent constraints on the parameters. We also find future space-borne interferometers independently provide a highly precise determination of the parameters.

The European Space Agency's Planck satellite, which was dedicated to studying the early Universe and its subsequent evolution, was launched on 14 May 2009. It scanned the microwave and submillimetre sky continuously between 12 August 2009 and 23 October 2013, producing deep, high-resolution, all-sky maps in nine frequency bands from 30 to 857GHz. This paper presents the cosmological legacy of Planck, which currently provides our strongest constraints on the parameters of the standard cosmological model and some of the tightest limits available on deviations from that model. The 6-parameter LCDM model continues to provide an excellent fit to the cosmic microwave background data at high and low redshift, describing the cosmological information in over a billion map pixels with just six parameters. With 18 peaks in the temperature and polarization angular power spectra constrained well, Planck measures five of the six parameters to better than 1% (simultaneously), with the best-determined parameter (theta_*) now known to 0.03%. We describe the multi-component sky as seen by Planck, the success of the LCDM model, and the connection to lower-redshift probes of structure formation. We also give a comprehensive summary of the major changes introduced in this 2018 release. The Planck data, alone and in combination with other probes, provide stringent constraints on our models of the early Universe and the large-scale structure within which all astrophysical objects form and evolve. We discuss some lessons learned from the Planck mission, and highlight areas ripe for further experimental advances.

Ultra-high-energy neutrinos and cosmic rays are excellent probes of astroparticle physics phenomena. For astroparticle physics analyses, robust and accurate reconstruction of signal parameters such as arrival direction and energy is essential. Radio detection is an established detector concept explored by many observatories; however, current reconstruction methods ignore bin-to-bin noise correlations, which limits reconstruction resolution and, so far, has prevented calculations of event-by-event uncertainties. In this work, we present a likelihood description of neutrino or cosmic-ray signals in radio detectors with correlated noise, as present in all neutrino and cosmic-ray radio detectors. We demonstrate, with simulation studies of both neutrinos and cosmic-ray radio signals, that signal parameters such as energy and direction, including event-by-event uncertainties with correct coverage, can be obtained. This method reduces reconstruction uncertainties and biases compared to previous approaches. Additionally, the Likelihood can be used for event selection and enables differentiable end-to-end detector optimization. The reconstruction code is available through the open-source software NuRadioReco.

We revisit the flat-sky approximation for evaluating the angular power spectra of projected random fields by retaining information about the correlations along the line of sight. With broad, overlapping radial window functions, these line-of-sight correlations are suppressed and are ignored in the Limber approximation. However, retaining the correlations is important for narrow window functions or unequal-time spectra but introduces significant computational difficulties due to the highly oscillatory nature of the integrands involved. We deal with the integral over line-of-sight wave-modes in the flat-sky approximation analytically, using the FFTlog expansion of the 3D power spectrum. This results in an efficient computational method, which is a substantial improvement compared to any full-sky approaches. We apply our results to galaxy clustering (with and without redshift-space distortions), CMB lensing and galaxy lensing observables. For clustering, we find excellent agreement with the full-sky results on large (percent-level agreement) and intermediate or small (subpercent agreement) scales, dramatically out-performing the Limber approximation for both wide and narrow window functions, and in equal- and unequal-time cases. In the case of lensing, we show on the full sky that the angular power spectrum of the convergence can be very well approximated by projecting the 3D Laplacian (rather than the correct angular Laplacian) of the gravitational potential, even on large scales. Combining this approximation with our flat-sky techniques provides an efficient and accurate evaluation of the CMB lensing angular power spectrum on all scales.

The injection of early dark energy (EDE) before the recombination, a possible resolution of the Hubble tension, will not only shift the scalar spectral index n_s towards n_s=1, but also be likely to tighten the current upper limit on tensor-to-scalar ratio r. In this work, with the latest CMB datasets (Planck PR4, ACT, SPT and BICEP/Keck), as well as BAO and SN, we confirm this result, and discuss its implication on inflation. We also show that if we happen to live with EDE, how the different inflation models currently allowed would be distinguished by planned CMB observations, such as CMB-S4 and LiteBIRD.

Post-merger gravitational wave echoes provide a unique opportunity to probe the near-horizon structure of astrophysical black holes, that may be modified due to non-perturbative quantum gravity phenomena. However, since the waveform is subject to large theoretical uncertainties, it is necessary to develop model-agnostic search methods for detecting echoes from observational data. A promising strategy is to identify the characteristic quasinormal modes (QNMs) associated with echoes, {\it in frequency space}, which complements existing searches of quasiperiodic pulses in time. In this study, we build upon our previous work targeting these modes by incorporating relative phase information to optimize the Bayesian search algorithm. Using a new phase-marginalized likelihood, the performance can be significantly improved for well-resolved QNMs. This enables an efficient model-agnostic search for QNMs of different shapes by using a simple search template. To demonstrate the robustness of the search algorithm, we construct four complementary benchmarks for the echo waveform that span a diverse range of different theoretical possibilities for the near-horizon structure. We then validate our Bayesian search algorithms by injecting the benchmark models into different realizations of Gaussian noise. Using two types of phase-marginalized likelihoods, we find that the search algorithm can efficiently detect the corresponding QNMs. Therefore, our search strategy provides a concrete Bayesian and model-agnostic approach to "quantum black hole seismology".

In this paper, we present a novel approach to accelerate the Bayesian inference process, focusing specifically on the nested sampling algorithms. Bayesian inference plays a crucial role in cosmological parameter estimation, providing a robust framework for extracting theoretical insights from observational data. However, its computational demands can be substantial, primarily due to the need for numerous likelihood function evaluations. Our proposed method utilizes the power of deep learning, employing feedforward neural networks to approximate the likelihood function dynamically during the Bayesian inference process. Unlike traditional approaches, our method trains neural networks on-the-fly using the current set of live points as training data, without the need for pre-training. This flexibility enables adaptation to various theoretical models and datasets. We perform simple hyperparameter optimization using genetic algorithms to suggest initial neural network architectures for learning each likelihood function. Once sufficient accuracy is achieved, the neural network replaces the original likelihood function. The implementation integrates with nested sampling algorithms and has been thoroughly evaluated using both simple cosmological dark energy models and diverse observational datasets. Additionally, we explore the potential of genetic algorithms for generating initial live points within nested sampling inference, opening up new avenues for enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of Bayesian inference methods.

The inspiral, merger, and ringdown of Massive Black Hole Binaries (MBHBs) is one the main sources of Gravitational Waves (GWs) for the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), an ESA-led mission in the implementation phase. It is expected that LISA will detect these systems throughout the entire observable universe. Robust and efficient data analysis algorithms are necessary to detect and estimate physical parameters for these systems. In this work, we explore the application of Sequential Neural Likelihood, a simulation-based inference algorithm, to detect and characterize MBHB GW signals in synthetic LISA data. We describe in detail the different elements of the method, their performance and possible alternatives that can be used to enhance the performance. Instead of sampling from the conventional likelihood function, which requires a forward simulation for each evaluation, this method constructs a surrogate likelihood that is ultimately described by a neural network trained from a dataset of simulations of the MBHB signals and noise. One important advantage of this method is that, given that the likelihood is independent of the priors, we can iteratively train models that target specific observations in a fraction of the time and computational cost that other traditional and machine learning-based strategies would require. Because of the iterative nature of the method, we are able to train models to obtain qualitatively similar posteriors with less than 2\% of the simulator calls that Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods would require. We compare these posteriors with those obtained from Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques and discuss the differences that appear, in particular in relation with the important role that data compression has in the modular implementation of the method that we present. We also discuss different strategies to improve the performance of the algorithms.

We consider the possibility that gravity breaks parity, with left and right handed gravitons coupling to matter with a different Newton's constant and show that this would affect their zero-point vacuum fluctuations during inflation. Should there be a cosmic background of gravity waves, the effect would translate into anomalous CMB polarization. Non-vanishing TB (and EB) polarization components emerge, revealing interesting experimental targets. Indeed if reasonable chirality is present a TB measurement would provide the easiest way to detect a gravitational wave background. We speculate on the theoretical implications of such an observation.

We present a neural network emulator to constrain the thermal parameters of the intergalactic medium (IGM) at 5.4z6.0 using the Lyman-displaystylealpha (Lydisplaystylealpha) forest flux auto-correlation function. Our auto-differentiable JAX-based framework accelerates the surrogate model generation process using approximately 100 sparsely sampled Nyx hydrodynamical simulations with varying combinations of thermal parameters, i.e., the temperature at mean density T_{{0}}, the slope of the temperaturedisplaystyle-density relation displaystylegamma, and the mean transmission flux langle{F}{rangle}. We show that this emulator has a typical accuracy of 1.0% across the specified redshift range. Bayesian inference of the IGM thermal parameters, incorporating emulator uncertainty propagation, is further expedited using NumPyro Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We compare both the inference results and computational cost of our framework with the traditional nearest-neighbor interpolation approach applied to the same set of mock Lyalpha flux. By examining the credibility contours of the marginalized posteriors for T_{{0}},gamma,and{langle}{F}{rangle} obtained using the emulator, the statistical reliability of measurements is established through inference on 100 realistic mock data sets of the auto-correlation function.

This work, together with its companion paper, Secco and Samuroff et al. (2021), presents the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints based on an analysis of over 100 million source galaxies. With the data spanning 4143 deg^2 on the sky, divided into four redshift bins, we produce the highest significance measurement of cosmic shear to date, with a signal-to-noise of 40. We conduct a blind analysis in the context of the ΛCDM model and find a 3% constraint of the clustering amplitude, S_8equiv σ_8 (Ω_{rm m}/0.3)^{0.5} = 0.759^{+0.025}_{-0.023}. A ΛCDM-Optimized analysis, which safely includes smaller scale information, yields a 2% precision measurement of S_8= 0.772^{+0.018}_{-0.017} that is consistent with the fiducial case. The two low-redshift measurements are statistically consistent with the Planck Cosmic Microwave Background result, however, both recovered S_8 values are lower than the high-redshift prediction by 2.3σ and 2.1σ (p-values of 0.02 and 0.05), respectively. The measurements are shown to be internally consistent across redshift bins, angular scales and correlation functions. The analysis is demonstrated to be robust to calibration systematics, with the S_8 posterior consistent when varying the choice of redshift calibration sample, the modeling of redshift uncertainty and methodology. Similarly, we find that the corrections included to account for the blending of galaxies shifts our best-fit S_8 by 0.5σ without incurring a substantial increase in uncertainty. We examine the limiting factors for the precision of the cosmological constraints and find observational systematics to be subdominant to the modeling of astrophysics. Specifically, we identify the uncertainties in modeling baryonic effects and intrinsic alignments as the limiting systematics.

No experimental test precludes the possibility that the dark matter experiences forces beyond general relativity -- in fact, a variety of cosmic microwave background observations suggest greater late-time structure than predicted in the standard Lambda cold dark matter model. We show that minimal models of scalar-mediated forces between dark matter particles do not enhance the growth of unbiased tracers of structure: weak lensing observables depend on the total density perturbation, for which the enhanced growth of the density contrast in the matter era is cancelled by the more rapid dilution of the background dark matter density. Moreover, the same background-level effects imply that scenarios compatible with CMB temperature and polarization anisotropies in fact suppress structure growth, as fixing the distance to last scattering requires a substantially increased density of dark energy. Though massive mediators undo these effects upon oscillating, they suppress structure even further because their gravitational impact as nonclustering subcomponents of matter outweighs the enhanced clustering strength of dark matter. We support these findings with analytic insight that clarifies the physical impact of dark forces and explains how primary CMB measurements calibrate the model's predictions for low-redshift observables. We discuss implications for neutrino mass limits and other cosmological anomalies, and we also consider how nonminimal extensions of the model might be engineered to enhance structure.

We study chromo-natural inflation in the axiverse. More precisely, we investigate natural inflation with two axions coupled with a SU(2) gauge field. Assuming a hierarchy between the coupling constants, we find that for certain initial conditions, conventional natural inflation commences and continues for tens of e-foldings, and subsequently chromo-natural inflation takes over from natural inflation. For these solutions, we expect that the predictions are in agreement with observations on CMB scales. Moreover, since chromo-natural inflation occurs in the latter part of the inflationary stage, chiral primordial gravitational waves are produced in the interesting frequency range higher than 10^{-10}Hz, which might be detectable by future gravitational wave observations.

CMB-S4, the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) observatory, will provide detailed maps of the CMB at millimeter wavelengths to dramatically advance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. CMB-S4 will deploy large and small aperture telescopes with hundreds of thousands of detectors to observe the CMB at arcminute and degree resolutions at millimeter wavelengths. Inflationary science benefits from a deep delensing survey at arcminute resolutions capable of observing a large field of view at millimeter wavelengths. This kind of survey acts as a complement to a degree angular resolution survey. The delensing survey requires a nearly uniform distribution of cameras per frequency band across the focal plane. We present a large-throughput, large-aperture (5-meter diameter) freeform three-mirror anastigmatic telescope and an array of 85 cameras for CMB observations at arcminute resolutions, which meets the needs of the delensing survey of CMB-S4. A detailed prescription of this three-mirror telescope and cameras is provided, with a series of numerical calculations that indicate expected optical performance and mechanical tolerance.

We present the measurements and cosmological implications of the galaxy two-point clustering using over 4.7 million unique galaxy and quasar redshifts in the range 0.1<z<2.1 divided into six redshift bins over a sim 7,500 square degree footprint, from the first year of observations with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI Data Release 1). By fitting the full power spectrum, we extend previous DESI DR1 baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements to include redshift-space distortions and signals from the matter-radiation equality scale. For the first time, this Full-Shape analysis is blinded at the catalogue-level to avoid confirmation bias and the systematic errors are accounted for at the two-point clustering level, which automatically propagates them into any cosmological parameter. When analysing the data in terms of compressed model-agnostic variables, we obtain a combined precision of 4.7\% on the amplitude of the redshift space distortion signal reaching similar precision with just one year of DESI data than with 20 years of observation from previous generation surveys. We analyse the data to directly constrain the cosmological parameters within the LambdaCDM model using perturbation theory and combine this information with the reconstructed DESI DR1 galaxy BAO. Using a Big Bang Nucleosynthesis Gaussian prior on the baryon density parameter, and a Gaussian prior on the spectral index, we constrain the matter density is Omega_m=0.296pm 0.010 and the Hubble constant H_0=(68.63 pm 0.79)[{rm km, s^{-1}Mpc^{-1}}]. Additionally, we measure the amplitude of clustering sigma_8=0.841 pm 0.034. The DESI DR1 results are in agreement with the LambdaCDM model based on general relativity with parameters consistent with those from Planck. The cosmological interpretation of these results in combination with external datasets are presented in a companion paper.

Recent results from Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO), in combination with cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements, have focused renewed attention on dark energy models with a time-varying equation-of-state parameter, w(z). In this paper, we describe the simplest, physically motivated models of evolving dark energy that are consistent with the recent data, a broad subclass of the so-called thawing scalar field models that we dub w_ϕCDM. We provide a quasi-universal, quasi-one-parameter functional fit to the scalar-field w_ϕ(z) that captures the behavior of these models more informatively than the standard w_0w_a phenomenological parametrization; their behavior is completely described by the current value of the equation-of-state parameter, w_0=w(z=0). Combining current data from BAO (DESI Data Release 2), the CMB (Planck and ACT), large-scale structure (DES Year-3 3times2pt), SNe Ia (DES-SN5YR), and strong lensing (TDCOSMO + SLACS), for w_ϕCDM we obtain w_0=-0.904_{-0.033}^{+0.034}, 2.9σ discrepant from the Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) model. The Bayesian evidence ratio substantially favors this w_ϕCDM model over ΛCDM. The data combination that yields the strongest discrepancy with ΛCDM is BAO+SNe Ia, for which w_0=-0.837^{+0.044}_{-0.045}, 3.6σ discrepant from ΛCDM and with a Bayesian evidence ratio strongly in favor. We find that the so-called S_8 tension between the CMB and large-scale structure is slightly reduced in these models, while the Hubble tension is slightly increased. We forecast constraints on these models from near-future surveys (DESI-extension and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory LSST), showing that the current best-fit w_ϕCDM model will be distinguishable from ΛCDM at over 9σ.

The redshifted 21-cm signal is a unique probe of the early universe, particularly the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). While the 21-cm power spectrum has been the primary statistic for parameter inference, it fails to capture the non-Gaussian information in the signal, motivating the use of higher-order statistics such as the bispectrum. We perform a rigorous cross-simulation validation to infer the mean neutral hydrogen fraction (x_{HI}) by training a Bayesian neural network on 21cmFAST simulations and applying it to mock observations generated by ReionYuga code. Our analysis spans six redshifts and includes realistic SKA system noise and cosmic variance, calculated from 50 statistically independent realizations. We find that the bispectrum adds useful information, but the improvement is moderate, with constraints tightened by sim 1.4times the power-spectrum only case. The cross-simulation analysis also identifies a persistent systematic discrepancy between inferred and true values that often exceeds the statistical uncertainties, implying that modeling uncertainty remains the dominant limitation. Our results, therefore, indicate that the highly stringent constraints obtained in same-code validation studies may be overly optimistic, and mitigating cross-model systematics is crucial for robust parameter inference in the SKA era.

We use the Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) to reduce the uncertainty in the local value of the Hubble constant (H_0) from 3.3% to 2.4%. Improvements come from new, near-infrared observations of Cepheid variables in 11 new hosts of recent SNe~Ia, more than doubling the sample of SNe~Ia having a Cepheid-calibrated distance for a total of 19; these leverage the magnitude-z relation based on 300 SNe~Ia at z<0.15. All 19 hosts and the megamaser system NGC4258 were observed with WFC3, thus nullifying cross-instrument zeropoint errors. Other improvements include a 33% reduction in the systematic uncertainty in the maser distance to NGC4258, more Cepheids and a more robust distance to the LMC from late-type DEBs, HST observations of Cepheids in M31, and new HST-based trigonometric parallaxes for Milky Way (MW) Cepheids. We consider four geometric distance calibrations of Cepheids: (i) megamasers in NGC4258, (ii) 8 DEBs in the LMC, (iii) 15 MW Cepheids with parallaxes, and (iv) 2 DEBs in M31. H_0 from each is 72.25+/-2.51, 72.04+/-2.67, 76.18+/-2.37, and 74.50+/-3.27 km/sec/Mpc, respectively. Our best estimate of 73.24+/-1.74 km/sec/Mpc combines the anchors NGC4258, MW, and LMC, and includes systematic errors for a final uncertainty of 2.4%. This value is 3.4 sigma higher than 66.93+/-0.62 km/sec/Mpc predicted by LambdaCDM with 3 neutrinos with mass 0.06 eV and the Planck data, but reduces to 2.1 sigma relative to the prediction of 69.3+/-0.7 km/sec/Mpc with the combination of WMAP+ACT+SPT+BAO, suggesting systematic uncertainties in CMB measurements may play a role in the tension. If we take the conflict between Planck and H_0 at face value, one plausible explanation could involve an additional source of dark radiation in the early Universe in the range of Delta N_eff=0.4-1. We anticipate significant improvements in H_0 from upcoming parallax measurements.

We study a mechanism to produce the circular polarization of primordial gravitational waves. The circular polarization is generated during the super-inflation driven by the Gauss-Bonnet term in the string-inspired cosmology. The instability in the tensor mode caused by the Gauss-Bonnet term and the parity violation due to the gravitational Chern-Simons term are the essential ingredients of the mechanism. We also discuss detectability of the produced circular polarization of gravitational waves. It turns out that the simple model of single-field inflation contradicts CMB observations. To circumvent this difficulty, we propose a two-field inflation model. In this two-field model, the circular polarization of gravitational waves is created in the frequency range designed by the Big-Bang Observer (BBO) or the deci-hertz gravitational-wave observatory (DECIGO).

Studies show that the model-independent, fully non-perturbative covariant cosmographic approach is suitable for analyzing the local Universe (zlesssim 0.1). However, accurately characterizing large and inhomogeneous mass distributions requires the fourth-order term in the redshift expansion of the covariant luminosity distance d_L(z,n). We calculate the covariant snap parameter S and its spherical harmonic multipole moments using the matter expansion tensor and the evolution equations for lightray bundles. The fourth-order term adds 36 degrees of freedom, since the highest independent multipole of the snap is the 32-pole (dotriacontapole) (ell=5). Including this term helps to de-bias estimations of the covariant deceleration parameter. Given that observations suggest axially symmetric anisotropies in the Hubble diagram for z lesssim 0.1 and theory shows that only a subset of multipoles contributes to the signal, we demonstrate that only 12 degrees of freedom are needed for a model-independent description of the local universe. We use an analytical axisymmetric model of the local Universe, with data that matches the Zwicky Transient Facility survey, in order to provide a numerical example of the amplitude of the snap multipoles and to forecast precision.

The observed cosmological constant may originate as the minimum value U_{min} of a scalar field potential, where the scalar field is frozen due to a large mass. If this vacuum is metastable, it may decay to a true vacuum either at present or in the future. Assuming its decay rate Gamma is comparable to the Hubble expansion rate H_0, we estimate the scale of true vacuum bubbles and analyze their evolution. We find that their initial formation scale is sub-millimeter and their tension causes rapid collapse if m gtrsim 1.7 cdot 10^{-3}, eV. For smaller masses, the bubbles expand at the speed of light. We extend our analysis to scalar-tensor theories with non-minimal coupling, finding that the nucleation scale of gravitational constant bubbles remains consistent with the sub-millimeter regime of General Relativity. The critical mass scale remains around 10^{-3},eV. A theoretical estimate at redshift z_{obs} sim 0.01 suggests an observable bubble radius of sim 50 Mpc, implying a gravitational transition triggered sim 300 Myr ago, with a present-day size approaching 100 Mpc. Additionally, we explore mass ranges (m < 10^{-3},eV) and non-minimal coupling xi ranges (10^{-8},eV^{2-n} - 10^{-1},eV^{2-n}) that lead to a variation Delta G/G_N within the 1%-7% range. We assume non-minimal coupling of the form F(phi)=1/kappa - xi phi^n, with kappa=8pi G_N and 2 leq n leq 9. Finally, we review various local physics or/and transition based proposed solutions to the Hubble tension, including ultra-late-time transitional models (z sim 0.01), screened fifth-force mechanisms, and the Lambda_{rm s}CDM model, which features a transition at z sim 2. We discuss observational hints supporting these scenarios and the theoretical challenges they face.

Cosmological data probe massive neutrinos via their effects on the geometry of the Universe and the growth of structure, both of which are degenerate with the late-time expansion history. We clarify the nature of these degeneracies and the individual roles of both probes in neutrino mass inference. Geometry is strongly sensitive to neutrino masses: within LambdaCDM, the primary cosmic microwave background anisotropies alone impose that the matter fraction Omega_m must increase fivefold with increasing neutrino mass. Moreover, large-scale structure observables, like weak lensing of the CMB, are dimensionless and thus depend not on the matter density (as often quoted) but in fact the matter fraction. We explore the consequential impact of this distinction on the interplay between probes of structure, low-redshift distances, and CMB anisotropies. We derive constraints on the neutrino's masses independently from their suppression of structure and impact on geometry, showing that the latter is at least as important as the former. While the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument's recent baryon acoustic oscillation data place stringent bounds largely deriving from their geometric incompatibility with massive neutrinos, all recent type Ia supernova datasets drive marginal preferences for nonzero neutrino masses because they prefer substantially larger matter fractions. Recent CMB lensing data, however, neither exclude neutrinos' suppression of structure nor constrain it strongly enough to discriminate between mass hierarchies. Current data thus evince not a need for modified dynamics of neutrino perturbations or structure growth but rather an inconsistent compatibility with massive neutrinos' impact on the expansion history. We identify two of DESI's measurements that strongly influence its constraints, and we also discuss neutrino mass measurements in models that alter the sound horizon.

We introduce a novel neural network, SkyReconNet, which combines the expanded receptive fields of dilated convolutional layers along with standard convolutions, to capture both the global and local features for reconstructing the missing information in an image. We implement our network to inpaint the masked regions in a full-sky Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) map. Inpainting CMB maps is a particularly formidable challenge when dealing with extensive and irregular masks, such as galactic masks which can obscure substantial fractions of the sky. The hybrid design of SkyReconNet leverages the strengths of standard and dilated convolutions to accurately predict CMB fluctuations in the masked regions, by effectively utilizing the information from surrounding unmasked areas. During training, the network optimizes its weights by minimizing a composite loss function that combines the Structural Similarity Index Measure (SSIM) and mean squared error (MSE). SSIM preserves the essential structural features of the CMB, ensuring an accurate and coherent reconstruction of the missing CMB fluctuations, while MSE minimizes the pixel-wise deviations, enhancing the overall accuracy of the predictions. The predicted CMB maps and their corresponding angular power spectra align closely with the targets, achieving the performance limited only by the fundamental uncertainty of cosmic variance. The network's generic architecture enables application to other physics-based challenges involving data with missing or defective pixels, systematic artefacts etc. Our results demonstrate its effectiveness in addressing the challenges posed by large irregular masks, offering a significant inpainting tool not only for CMB analyses but also for image-based experiments across disciplines where such data imperfections are prevalent.

We present a new method for measuring the E_G statistic that combines two CMB secondaries -- the kinematic Sunyaev-Zeldovich (kSZ) effect and CMB lensing -- for the first time to probe gravity on linear scales. The E_G statistic is a discriminating tool for modified gravity theories, which leave imprints in lensing observables and peculiar velocities. Existing E_G measurements rely on redshift space distortions (RSD) to infer the velocity field. Here, we employ kSZ velocity-reconstruction instead of RSD, a complementary technique that constrains the largest-scale modes better than the galaxy survey it uses. We construct a novel V_G estimator that involves a ratio between cross-correlations of a galaxy sample with a CMB convergence map and that with a 3D kSZ-reconstructed velocity field. We forecast for current and upcoming CMB maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and the Simons Observatory (SO), respectively, in combination with three spectroscopic galaxy samples from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We find cumulative detection significances in the range S/N sim 20-55, which can robustly test the scale-independent E_G prediction under general relativity (GR) at different effective redshifts of the galaxy samples (zapprox 0.73, 1.33, 1.84). In particular, the SOtimesDESI LRG measurement would be able to distinguish between GR and certain modified gravity models, including Hu-Sawicki f(R) and Chameleon theories, with high confidence. The proposed V_G estimator opens up a new avenue for stress-testing gravity and the LambdaCDM+GR model at the largest observable scales.

Galaxy number counts suggest that we are located within the Gpc-scale KBC void. The Hubble tension might arise due to gravitationally driven outflow from this void, as explored in detail by Haslbauer et al. We explore how the impact of the void on redshift decays at large distances. We define H_0(z) as the present expansion rate H_0 that would be inferred from observations in a narrow redshift range centred on z. We find H_0(z) in three different ways, all of which give similar results. We then compare these results with the observations of Jia et al., who were careful to minimise the impact of correlations between H_0 measurements from data in different redshift bins. We find reasonable agreement with their results for the Gaussian and Exponential void underdensity profiles, although the agreement is less good in the Maxwell-Boltzmann case. The latter profile causes severe disagreement with the observed bulk flow curve at z < 0.1 (Mazurenko et al.), so the tension with higher redshift data further highlights that the deepest part of the KBC void is probably near its centre. The observations show a decline of H_0(z) towards the background Planck value in qualitative agreement with the considered models, even if we use a larger void. The good overall agreement with the recent results of Jia et al. suggests that the local supervoid evident from the galaxy luminosity density out to a Gpc might also solve the Hubble tension while retaining a low background H_0 consistent with Planck data, assuming enhanced structure formation on >100 Mpc scales.

A major goal of ongoing and future cosmological surveys of the large-scale structure is to measure local type primordial non-Gaussianity in the galaxy power spectrum through the scale-dependent bias. General relativistic effects have been shown to be degenerate with this measurement, therefore requiring a non-Newtonian approach. In this work, we develop a consistent framework to compute integrated effects, including lensing convergence, time delay, and integrated Sachs--Wolfe, along with the local relativistic projection and wide-separation corrections in the multipoles of the power spectrum. We show that, for a Euclid-like Hα-line galaxy survey and a MegaMapper-like Lyman-break galaxy survey, ignoring these effects leads to a bias on the best fit measurement of the amplitude of primordial non-Gaussianity, f_{rm NL}, of around 3,σ and 20 , σ respectively. When we include these corrections, the uncertainty in our knowledge of the luminosity function leads to further uncertainty in our measurement of f_{rm NL}. In this work, we show that this degeneracy can be partly mitigated by using a bright-faint multi-tracer analysis, where the observed galaxy sample is subdivided into two separate populations based on luminosity, which provides a 15--20% improvement on the forecasted constraints of local type f_{rm NL}. In addition, we present a novel calculation of the full multi-tracer covariance with the inclusion of wide-separation corrections~-- all of these results are implemented in the Python code CosmoWAP.

Coincident multimessenger observations of cosmic sources can offer numerous benefits, especially when used in the context of synergistic astrophysics. One significant advantage is enhancing the detection significance of separate detectors by correlating their data and assuming joint emission. We have formulated an approach for updating the Bayesian posterior probability of an astrophysical origin, namely p_{rm astro}, relying on multimessenger coincidences assuming an emission model. The description is applicable to any combination of messengers. We demonstrated the formalism for the gravitational waves and high-energy neutrinos case. Applying our method to the public data of candidate coincident high-energy neutrinos with subthreshold gravitational-wave triggers, we found that in the case of highly energetic neutrino coincidences, p_{rm astro} can increase from approximately sim 0.1 to sim 0.9. The amount of improvement depends on the assumed joint emission model. If models are trusted, the marked improvement makes subthreshold detections much more confident. Moreover, the model dependency can also be used to test the consistency of different models. This work is a crucial step toward the goal of uniting all detectors on equal footing into a statistically integrated, Earth-sized observatory for comprehensive multimessenger astrophysics.

We allow the Higgs field Phi to interact with a dilaton field chi of the background spacetime via the coupling chi^2,Phi^daggerPhi. Upon spontaneous gauge symmetry breaking, the Higgs VEV becomes proportional to chi. While traditionally this linkage is employed to make the Planck mass and particle masses dependent on chi, we present an textit alternative mechanism: the Higgs VEV will be used to construct Planck's constant hbar and speed of light c. Specifically, each open set vicinity of a given point x^* on the spacetime manifold is equipped with a replica of the Glashow-Weinberg-Salam action operating with its own effective values of hbar_* and c_* per hbar_*proptochi^{-1/2}(x^*) and c_*proptochi^{1/2}(x^*), causing these ``fundamental constants'' to vary alongside the dynamical field chi. Moreover, in each open set around x^*, the prevailing value chi(x^*) determines the length and time scales for physical processes occurring in this region as lproptochi^{-1}(x^*) and tauproptochi^{-3/2}(x^*). This leads to an textit anisotropic relation tau^{-1}propto l^{-3/2} between the rate of clocks and the length of rods, resulting in a distinct set of novel physical phenomena. For late-time cosmology, the variation of c along the trajectory of light waves from distant supernovae towards the Earth-based observer necessitates modifications to the Lema\^itre redshift relation and the Hubble law. These modifications are capable of: (1) Accounting for the Pantheon Catalog of SNeIa through a declining speed of light in an expanding Einstein--de Sitter universe, thus avoiding the need for dark energy; (2) Revitalizing Blanchard-Douspis-Rowan-Robinson-Sarkar's CMB power spectrum analysis that bypassed dark energy [A&A 412, 35 (2003)]; and (3) Resolving the H_0 tension without requiring a dynamical dark energy component.

Galaxy clusters selected based on overdensities of galaxies in photometric surveys provide the largest cluster samples. Yet modeling the selection function of such samples is complicated by non-cluster members projected along the line of sight (projection effects) and the potential detection of unvirialized objects (contamination). We empirically constrain the magnitude of these effects by cross-matching galaxy clusters selected in the Dark Energy survey data with the \rdmpr, algorithm with significant detections in three South Pole Telescope surveys (SZ, pol-ECS, pol-500d). For matched clusters, we augment the \rdmpr,catalog by the SPT detection significance. For unmatched objects we use the SPT detection threshold as an upper limit on the SZe signature. Using a Bayesian population model applied to the collected multi-wavelength data, we explore various physically motivated models to describe the relationship between observed richness and halo mass. Our analysis reveals the limitations of a simple lognormal scatter model in describing the data. We rule out significant contamination by unvirialized objects at the high-richness end of the sample. While dedicated simulations offer a well-fitting calibration of projection effects, our findings suggest the presence of redshift-dependent trends that these simulations may not have captured. Our findings highlight that modeling the selection function of optically detected clusters remains a complicated challenge, requiring a combination of simulation and data-driven approaches.

The Simons Observatory (SO), due to start full science operations in early 2025, aims to set tight constraints on inflationary physics by inferring the tensor-to-scalar ratio r from measurements of CMB polarization B-modes. Its nominal design targets a precision σ(r=0) leq 0.003 without delensing. Achieving this goal and further reducing uncertainties requires the mitigation of other sources of large-scale B-modes such as Galactic foregrounds and weak gravitational lensing. We present an analysis pipeline aiming to estimate r by including delensing within a cross-spectral likelihood, and demonstrate it on SO-like simulations. Lensing B-modes are synthesised using internal CMB lensing reconstructions as well as Planck-like CIB maps and LSST-like galaxy density maps. This B-mode template is then introduced into SO's power-spectrum-based foreground-cleaning algorithm by extending the likelihood function to include all auto- and cross-spectra between the lensing template and the SAT B-modes. Within this framework, we demonstrate the equivalence of map-based and cross-spectral delensing and use it to motivate an optimized pixel-weighting scheme for power spectrum estimation. We start by validating our pipeline in the simplistic case of uniform foreground spectral energy distributions (SEDs). In the absence of primordial B-modes, σ(r) decreases by 37% as a result of delensing. Tensor modes at the level of r=0.01 are successfully detected by our pipeline. Even with more realistic foreground models including spatial variations in the dust and synchrotron spectral properties, we obtain unbiased estimates of r by employing the moment-expansion method. In this case, delensing-related improvements range between 27% and 31%. These results constitute the first realistic assessment of the delensing performance at SO's nominal sensitivity level. (Abridged)

Fast radio bursts (FRBs) are increasingly being used for cosmological applications such as measuring the Hubble constant and baryon abundance. The increasing number of localized FRBs and precise measurement of dispersion measure (DM) make them a suitable probe for such an approach. We use a sample of 110 localized FRBs as well as a small sub-sample of 24 FRBs with scattering timescale measurements or limits. We infer the Hubble constant (H_0) and the DM distribution of the host galaxies simultaneously by fitting our model to the FRB DM measurements. With current data, our results are in agreement with both high and low redshift measurements of H_0, obtained using Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and Type Ia supernovae data respectively. We project that with about 200 localized FRBs, we would be in a position to distinguish between the two scenarios at 4sigma confidence. In addition, the host DM is expected to be related to star formation in the host galaxy and the stellar age of the progenitors. We show that young progenitors with an age of less than 1 Myr are consistent with our inferred distribution of host DM at 95 percent confidence. These young sources may be associated with long scatter broadening times and large DM from their source environments. Indeed, we find that scatter broadening times of FRBs are inconsistent with the Milky Way ISM, but at the same time, do not appear to be strongly correlated with the FRBs' redshift or with the SFR or stellar mass of their host galaxies. This suggests that scattering is dominated by the immediate environment of the sources.

We extend our previous work on applying CMB techniques to the mapping of gravitational-wave backgrounds to backgrounds which have non-GR polarisations. Our analysis and results are presented in the context of pulsar-timing array observations, but the overarching methods are general, and can be easily applied to LIGO or eLISA observations using appropriately modified response functions. Analytic expressions for the pulsar-timing response to gravitational waves with non-GR polarisation are given for each mode of a spin-weighted spherical-harmonic decomposition of the background, which permit the signal to be mapped across the sky to any desired resolution. We also derive the pulsar-timing overlap reduction functions for the various non-GR polarisations, finding analytic forms for anisotropic backgrounds with scalar-transverse ("breathing") and vector-longitudinal polarisations, and a semi-analytic form for scalar-longitudinal backgrounds. Our results indicate that pulsar-timing observations will be completely insensitive to scalar-transverse mode anisotropies in the polarisation amplitude beyond dipole, and anisotropies in the power beyond quadrupole. Analogously to our previous findings that pulsar-timing observations lack sensitivity to tensor-curl modes for a transverse-traceless tensor background, we also find insensitivity to vector-curl modes for a vector-longitudinal background.

We present new limits on an isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) using a six pulsar dataset spanning 18 yr of observations from the 2015 European Pulsar Timing Array data release. Performing a Bayesian analysis, we fit simultaneously for the intrinsic noise parameters for each pulsar, along with common correlated signals including clock, and Solar System ephemeris errors, obtaining a robust 95% upper limit on the dimensionless strain amplitude A of the background of A<3.0times 10^{-15} at a reference frequency of 1yr^{-1} and a spectral index of 13/3, corresponding to a background from inspiralling super-massive black hole binaries, constraining the GW energy density to Omega_gw(f)h^2 < 1.1times10^{-9} at 2.8 nHz. We also present limits on the correlated power spectrum at a series of discrete frequencies, and show that our sensitivity to a fiducial isotropic GWB is highest at a frequency of sim 5times10^{-9}~Hz. Finally we discuss the implications of our analysis for the astrophysics of supermassive black hole binaries, and present 95% upper limits on the string tension, Gmu/c^2, characterising a background produced by a cosmic string network for a set of possible scenarios, and for a stochastic relic GWB. For a Nambu-Goto field theory cosmic string network, we set a limit Gmu/c^2<1.3times10^{-7}, identical to that set by the {\it Planck} Collaboration, when combining {\it Planck} and high-ell Cosmic Microwave Background data from other experiments. For a stochastic relic background we set a limit of Omega^relic_gw(f)h^2<1.2 times10^{-9}, a factor of 9 improvement over the most stringent limits previously set by a pulsar timing array.

Weak lensing galaxy surveys are currently undergoing a dramatic revolution as the dawn of the Stage-IV surveys are upon us. Hence, ensuring that our analysis methods are as accurate and precise as the raw data is of upmost importance. This motivated the development of a new implementation of the quadratic maximum likelihood power spectrum estimation technique, the application of the theoretical uncertainties approach to mitigate baryonic feedback biases, and to re-evaluating the criterion from which binary scale cuts are derived when aiming to eliminate baryonic biases. These techniques maximise the available information from weak lensing observations while minimising potential systematic biases, and shows how this PhD thesis contributes to the advancement of weak lensing cosmology.

Separating a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) from noise is a challenging statistical task. One approach to establishing a detection criterion for the SGWB is using Bayesian evidence. If the evidence ratio (Bayes factor) between models with and without the signal exceeds a certain threshold, the signal is considered detected. We present a formalism to compute the averaged Bayes factor, incorporating instrumental-noise and SGWB uncertainties. As an example, we consider the case of power-law-shaped SGWB in LISA and generate the corresponding bayesian sensitivity curve. Unlike existing methods in the literature, which typically neglect uncertainties in both the signal and noise, our approach provides a reliable and realistic alternative. This flexible framework opens avenues for more robust stochastic gravitational wave background detection across gravitational-wave experiments.

The James Webb Space Telescope's (JWST) discovery of an unexpectedly high abundance of UV-bright galaxies at redshifts z > 10 poses a significant challenge to the standard LambdaCDM cosmology. This work tests whether this tension can be resolved solely by modifying the cosmological background, without invoking significant evolution in the astrophysical properties of early galaxies. We investigate an alternative framework featuring the presence of an anti-de Sitter vacuum in the dark energy sector, a model that naturally arises in quantum gravity models like string theory and can enhance early structure formation. Using a self-consistent semi-analytical model that couples galaxy evolution with reionization, we confront this scenario with a wide range of observations. We first show that while a model tailored to fit the high-z UV luminosity functions (UVLFs) shows promise, it is in strong tension with well-established cosmological constraints from the CMB and other low-redshift probes. Conversely, models within this framework that are consistent with these constraints provide only a modest boost to structure formation and fail to reproduce the observed JWST galaxy abundances at z > 10. While these models remain consistent with the cosmic reionization history, our primary result is that this class of cosmological modifications is insufficient on its own to explain the galaxy excess. Our study underscores the critical importance of holistic testing for any beyond-LambdaCDM proposal; apparent success in one observational regime does not guarantee overall viability. By demonstrating the limitations of a purely cosmological solution, our results strengthen the case that evolving astrophysical properties are a necessary ingredient for solving the challenge of early galaxy formation.

Parameter estimation for gravitational-wave signals is computationally demanding due to the high dimensionality of the parameter space and the cost of repeated waveform generation in traditional Bayesian inference. These analyses require on the order of 10^8 likelihood evaluations and waveform generations, resulting in inference times of hours to days per event. Furthermore, discrepancies between waveform models introduce systematic uncertainties that can bias inferred source properties. To address these challenges, we propose a novel framework based on Simulation-based Inference (SBI) and Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) and apply it to signals from Intermediate-Mass Black Holes (IMBH). In this framework, we train a single amortised neural posterior estimator on a large simulated dataset generated using two state-of-the-art waveform approximants, IMRPhenomXPHM and SEOBNRv5PHM. By treating the waveform model index as a latent variable, the network learns to produce posterior distributions that are naturally marginalized over the discrepancies of the two waveform models. Once trained, the model enables direct posterior sampling in milliseconds per event, eliminating the need for likelihood evaluations while simultaneously accounting for model systematics. We demonstrate that this approach recovers accurate posterior distributions for IMBH signals injected into Gaussian noise, achieving close agreement with traditional nested-sampling results while reducing inference time by several orders of magnitude. Our results show that NPE can robustly incorporate waveform-model systematics within a unified framework, offering a scalable path toward rapid, systematics-aware gravitational-wave inference. Establishing these methods as promising alternatives to classical likelihood-based pipelines for current and future high-mass gravitational-wave observations.

The repeating fast radio burst FRB20190520B is an anomaly of the FRB population thanks to its high dispersion measure (DM=1205,pc/cc) despite its low redshift of z_frb=0.241. This excess has been attributed to a large host contribution of DM_{host}approx 900,pc/cc, far larger than any other known FRB. In this paper, we describe spectroscopic observations of the FRB20190520B field obtained as part of the FLIMFLAM survey, which yielded 701 galaxy redshifts in the field. We find multiple foreground galaxy groups and clusters, for which we then estimated halo masses by comparing their richness with numerical simulations. We discover two separate M_{halo} >10^{14},M_odot galaxy clusters, at z=0.1867 and z=0.2170, respectively, that are directly intersected by the FRB sightline within their characteristic halo radius . Subtracting off their estimated DM contributions as well that of the diffuse intergalactic medium, we estimate a host contribution of DM_{host}=430^{+140}_{-220},pc/cc or DM_{host}=280^{+140}_{-170},pc/cc (observed frame) depending on whether we assume the halo gas extends to r_{200} or 2times r_{200}. This significantly smaller DM_{host} -- no longer the largest known value -- is now consistent with Halpha emission measures of the host galaxy without invoking unusually high gas temperatures. Combined with the observed FRB scattering timescale, we estimate the turbulent fluctuation and geometric amplification factor of the scattering layer to be F Gapprox4.5 - 11,(pc^2;km)^{-1/3}, suggesting most of the gas is close to the FRB host. This result illustrates the importance of incorporating foreground data for FRB analyses, both for understanding the nature of FRBs and to realize their potential as a cosmological probe.

Current observations indicate that an inverse exponential form of the inflaton potential provides an excellent description of single-field inflation. This potential fits the SPA+BK+DESI data sets well with in the 1σ bound in the n_{rm s}-r plane, thereby offering a simple and observationally viable single field inflationary scenario. To describe post-inflationary evolution and reheating, we extend the inverse exponential potential by adding a steep exponential term that remains negligible during inflation but becomes important afterwards. The resulting full potential develops a minimum after the end of inflation, leading to oscillations of the scalar field and consequently reheating of the Universe. We find that the maximum reheating temperature attainable in this scenario is of order 10^{13},GeV. The inverse exponential potential therefore emerges as a compelling candidate for early-Universe inflation, combining theoretical simplicity with robust observational viability.

Recent observations by the James Webb Space Telescope have revealed massive galaxies at very high redshift (zsimeq 7-15). The question of whether the existence of such galaxies is expected in the corresponding JWST surveys has received a lot of attention, though the answer straddles areas of cosmology and complex astrophysical details of high-redshift galaxy formation. The growth rate of density fluctuations determines the amplitude of overdensities that collapse to form galaxies. Late-time modifications of growth, combined with measurements at both zsim 1 from large-scale structure and zsim 1000 from the cosmic microwave background, affect the predictions for the abundance of first galaxies in the universe. In this paper, we point out that the late-time growth rate of structure affects the statistical significance of high-redshift, high-mass objects very weakly. Consequently, if the existence and abundance of these objects are confirmed to be unexpected, the variations in the late-time growth history are unlikely to explain these anomalies.

In 2013, the IceCube collaboration announced the detection of a diffuse high-energy astrophysical neutrino flux. The origin of this flux is still largely unknown. The most significant individual source is the close-by Seyfert galaxy NGC 1068 at 4.2-sigma level with a soft spectral index. To identify sources based on their counterpart, IceCube releases realtime alerts corresponding to neutrinos with a high probability of astrophysical origin. We report here the spatial coincidence of two neutrino alerts, IC220424A and IC230416A, with the Seyfert galaxy NGC 7469 at a distance of 70 Mpc. We evaluate, a-posteriori, the chance probability of such a coincidence and discuss this source as a potential neutrino emitter based on its multi-wavelength properties and in comparison to NGC 1068 by performing a Goodness-of-Fit test. The test statistic is derived from a likelihood ratio that includes the neutrino angular uncertainty and the source distance. We apply this test first to a catalog of AGN sources and second to a catalog of Seyfert galaxies only. Our a-posteriori evaluation excludes the possibility of an accidental spatial coincidence of both neutrinos with the Seyfert galaxy NGC 7469 at 3.2-sigma level, leaving open the possibility that either one or both neutrinos originated from the source. To be compatible with non-detections of TeV neutrinos, the source would need to have a hard spectral index.

We develop a novel way to probe subgalactic-scale matter distribution with diffractive lensing on gravitational waves. Five-year observations from Einstein Telescope and DECIGO are expected to probe k= 10^5sim 10^8 ,{rm Mpc}^{-1} down to P(k) = 10^{-16} sim 10^{-14} ,{rm Mpc}^3 level. These results can be interpreted in terms of primordial black holes in the range M_{rm PBH} gtrsim 10^{-3}M_odot down to f_{rm PBH} = 10^{-6} level, or QCD axion minihalos in the range m_a = 10^{-3} sim 10^{-12} ,{rm eV}. A key result of the paper is the approximate relation between the scale k and the gravitational wave frequency f, derived in an ensemble of `multi-lensing' events. This relation enables direct measurement of the power spectrum at specific scales, with sensitivities characterized by model-independent kernels delta P(k). Additionally, we delineate the statistical properties of `multi-lensing' based on the `Fresnel number' N_F. When N_F cal O(1), the statistical significance can be approximately calculated by Variance of lensing effects, which is directly related to the power spectrum among other moments of matter distribution.

Modern cosmological surveys are delivering datasets characterized by unprecedented quality and statistical completeness; this trend is expected to continue into the future as new ground- and space-based surveys come online. In order to maximally extract cosmological information from these observations, matching theoretical predictions are needed. At low redshifts, the surveys probe the nonlinear regime of structure formation where cosmological simulations are the primary means of obtaining the required information. The computational cost of sufficiently resolved large-volume simulations makes it prohibitive to run very large ensembles. Nevertheless, precision emulators built on a tractable number of high-quality simulations can be used to build very fast prediction schemes to enable a variety of cosmological inference studies. We have recently introduced the Mira-Titan Universe simulation suite designed to construct emulators for a range of cosmological probes. The suite covers the standard six cosmological parameters {omega_m,omega_b, sigma_8, h, n_s, w_0} and, in addition, includes massive neutrinos and a dynamical dark energy equation of state, {omega_{nu}, w_a}. In this paper we present the final emulator for the matter power spectrum based on 111 cosmological simulations, each covering a (2.1Gpc)^3 volume and evolving 3200^3 particles. An additional set of 1776 lower-resolution simulations and TimeRG perturbation theory results for the power spectrum are used to cover scales straddling the linear to mildly nonlinear regimes. The emulator provides predictions at the two to three percent level of accuracy over a wide range of cosmological parameters and is publicly released as part of this paper.

We explore a minimal scenario where the sole Standard-Model Higgs is responsible for reheating the Universe after inflation, produces a significant background of gravitational waves and maintains the full classical stability of the electroweak vacuum. As the Higgs self-coupling runs toward negative values at high energy scales, a non-minimal interaction with curvature during a stiff background expansion era drives the Higgs fluctuations closer to the instability scale. This curvature-induced tachyonic instability leads to an intense production of Higgs particles, accompanied by a stochastic gravitational-wave background. The characteristic features of such signal can be directly correlated to the inflationary scale, the non-minimal coupling parameter and the top quark Yukawa coupling. We distinguish between three possible scenarios: absolute stability with low top quark masses, potential vacuum instability, and absolute stability with new physics above the instability scale. Our findings suggest that the detection of a peaked background of gravitational waves together with its inflationary tail has the potential to unveil the features of the Higgs effective potential at very high energy scales while providing a minimal explanation for the reheating phase and the emergence of the Standard-Model plasma in the early Universe. Unlike other studies in the literature, the generation of gravitational waves in our scenario does not depend on the quantum instability of the Standard Model vacuum.

We present 850 {\mu}m thermal dust polarization observations with a resolution of 14.4"(~ 0.13 pc) towards an infrared dark cloud G16.96+0.27 using JCMT/POL-2. The average magnetic field orientation, which roughly agrees with the larger-scale magnetic field orientation traced by the Planck 353 GHz data, is approximately perpendicular to the filament structure. The estimated plane-of-sky magnetic field strength is ~ 96 {\mu}G and ~ 60 {\mu}G using two variants of the Davis-Chandrasekhar-Fermi methods. We calculate the virial and magnetic critical parameters to evaluate the relative importance of gravity, the magnetic field, and turbulence. The magnetic field and turbulence are both weaker than gravity, but magnetic fields and turbulence together are equal to gravity, suggesting that G16.96+0.27 is in a quasi-equilibrium state. The cloud-magnetic-field alignment is found to have a trend moving away from perpendicularity in the dense regions, which may serve as a tracer of potential fragmentation in such quiescent filaments.

The main aim of this work is to use a model-independent approach, along with late-time observational probes, to reconstruct the dark energy (DE) equation of state w_{rm DE}(z). Our analysis showed that, for a late time universe, w_{rm DE} deviates from being a constant but in contrast exhibits an oscillatory behavior, hence both quintessence (w_{rm DE}> -1) and phantom (w_{rm DE} < -1) regimes are equally allowed. In order to portray this oscillatory behavior, we explored various parametrizations for the equation of state and identified the closest approximation based on the goodness of fit with the data and the Bayesian evidence analysis. Our findings indicated that while all considered oscillating DE parametrizations provided a better fit to the data, compared to the cosmological constant, they are penalized in the Bayesian evidence analysis due to the additional free parameters. Overall, the present article demonstrates that in the low redshift regime, the equation of state of the DE prefers to be dynamical and oscillating. We anticipate that future cosmological probes will take a stand in this direction.

Suppose Alice trains an open-weight language model and Bob uses a blackbox derivative of Alice's model to produce text. Can Alice prove that Bob is using her model, either by querying Bob's derivative model (query setting) or from the text alone (observational setting)? We formulate this question as an independence testing problem--in which the null hypothesis is that Bob's model or text is independent of Alice's randomized training run--and investigate it through the lens of palimpsestic memorization in language models: models are more likely to memorize data seen later in training, so we can test whether Bob is using Alice's model using test statistics that capture correlation between Bob's model or text and the ordering of training examples in Alice's training run. If Alice has randomly shuffled her training data, then any significant correlation amounts to exactly quantifiable statistical evidence against the null hypothesis, regardless of the composition of Alice's training data. In the query setting, we directly estimate (via prompting) the likelihood Bob's model gives to Alice's training examples and order; we correlate the likelihoods of over 40 fine-tunes of various Pythia and OLMo base models ranging from 1B to 12B parameters with the base model's training data order, achieving a p-value on the order of at most 1e-8 in all but six cases. In the observational setting, we try two approaches based on estimating 1) the likelihood of Bob's text overlapping with spans of Alice's training examples and 2) the likelihood of Bob's text with respect to different versions of Alice's model we obtain by repeating the last phase (e.g., 1%) of her training run on reshuffled data. The second approach can reliably distinguish Bob's text from as little as a few hundred tokens; the first does not involve any retraining but requires many more tokens (several hundred thousand) to achieve high power.

The wavelength-coverage and sensitivity of JWST now enables us to probe the rest-frame UV - optical spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of galaxies at high-redshift (z>4). From these SEDs it is, in principle, through SED fitting possible to infer key physical properties, including stellar masses, star formation rates, and dust attenuation. These in turn can be compared with the predictions of galaxy formation simulations allowing us to validate and refine the incorporated physics. However, the inference of physical properties, particularly from photometry alone, can lead to large uncertainties and potential biases. Instead, it is now possible, and common, for simulations to be forward-modelled to yield synthetic observations that can be compared directly to real observations. In this work, we measure the JWST broadband fluxes and colours of a robust sample of 5<z<10 galaxies using the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science (CEERS) Survey. We then analyse predictions from a variety of models using the same methodology and compare the NIRCam/F277W magnitude distribution and NIRCam colours with observations. We find that the predicted and observed magnitude distributions are similar, at least at 5<z<8. At z>8 the distributions differ somewhat, though our observed sample size is small and thus susceptible to statistical fluctuations. Likewise, the predicted and observed colour evolution show broad agreement, at least at 5<z<8. There is however some disagreement between the observed and modelled strength of the strong line contribution. In particular all the models fails to reproduce the F410M-F444W colour at z>8, though, again, the sample size is small here.

We study the inflationary phenomenology of a rescaled Einstein-Gauss-Bonnet gravity. In this framework, the gravitational constant of the Einstein-Hilbert term is rescaled due to effective terms active in the high curvature era. Basically, the total theory is an F(R,G,phi) theory with the Gauss-Bonnet part contributing only a non-minimal coupling to the scalar field, so it is a theory with string theory origins and with a non-trivial F(R) gravity part. The F(R) gravity part in the high curvature regime contributes only a rescaled Einstein-Hilbert term and thus the resulting theory is effectively a rescaled version of a standard Einstein-Gauss-Bonnet theory. We develop the formalism of rescaled Einstein-Gauss-Bonnet gravity, taking in account the GW170817 constraints on the gravitational wave speed. We show explicitly how the rescaled theory affects directly the primordial scalar and tensor perturbations, and how the slow-roll and observational indices of inflation are affected by the rescaling of the theory. We perform a thorough phenomenological analysis of several models of interest and we show that is it possible to obtain viable inflationary theories compatible with the latest Planck data. Also among the studied models there are cases that yield a relatively large blue tilted tensor spectral index and we demonstrate that these models can lead to detectable primordial gravitational waves in the future gravitational wave experiments. Some of the scenarios examined, for specific values of the reheating temperature may be detectable by SKA, LISA, BBO, DECIGO and the Einstein Telescope.

This paper introduces a structural equation formulation that gives rise to a new family of quasi-periodic Gaussian processes, useful to process a broad class of natural and physiological signals. The proposed formulation simplifies generation and forecasting, and provides hyperparameter estimates, which we exploit in a convergent and consistent iterative estimation algorithm. A bootstrap approach for standard error estimation and confidence intervals is also provided. We demonstrate the computational and scaling benefits of the proposed approach on a broad class of problems, including water level tidal analysis, CO_{2} emission data, and sunspot numbers data. By leveraging the structural equations, our method reduces the cost of likelihood evaluations and predictions from O(k^2 p^2) to O(p^2), significantly improving scalability.

Scale-independent energy-momentum squared gravity (EMSG) allows different gravitational couplings for different types of sources and has been proven to have interesting implications in cosmology. In this paper, the Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) formalism and the latest observational constraints on nuclear abundances are being used to put bounds on this class of modified gravity models. Using the tight constraint from BBN on the correction term in the Friedmann equation in EMSG scenario, we report the allowed deviation from the standard cosmic expansion rate.

There is a candidate electromagnetic counterpart to the binary black hole merger GW190521, identified as ZTF19abanrhr within AGN J124942.3 + 344929. Additionally, GW190514 is proposed as a plausible precursor merger to GW190521 within a hierarchical merger scenario. In this study, we investigate the potential association between GW190514 and GW190521 as a hierarchical triple merger associated with ZTF19abanrhr, taking into account of sky position, distance, and mass of the sources using a Bayesian criterion. Our analysis reveals that the association is favored over a random coincidence, with a log Bayes factor of 16.8, corresponding to an odds ratio of sim199:1, assuming an astrophysical prior odds of 10^{-5}. Notably, when accounting for the primary masses of the two gravitational wave events as potential products of mergers in the AGN formation channel, the Bayes factor increases significantly, further enhancing the preference for this association by a factor of sim10^2, corresponding to a log Bayes factor of 21.5 and an odds ratio of sim2times10^4:1. Our results suggest strong evidence for the first hierarchical triple merger associated with an electromagnetic counterpart in the AGN formation channel. This work is crucial for understanding the formation mechanisms of massive black holes, the role of AGNs in hierarchical mergers, and the implications of multi-messenger astronomy.

Relativistic jets from active galactic nuclei are expected to exhibit strong redshift evolution in their radiative output due to the increasing energy density of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We investigate the role of inverse Compton (IC) scattering of CMB photons in regulating the radio and X-ray emission from large-scale jets using three-dimensional relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations coupled with a hybrid Eulerian-Lagrangian particle framework. By keeping the jet dynamics and ambient medium properties fixed across redshifts, we are able to isolate the impact of the cosmological evolution of the CMB on the jet radiation. From our simulations, we construct synthetic spectral energy distributions and intensity maps considering synchrotron and IC/CMB losses along with particle acceleration from shocks. We are able to reproduce the weak redshift dependence of radio luminosity and the strong enhancement of X-ray emission toward high redshift that is observed in radio-loud quasars. At high redshift, the X-ray luminosity follows the expected (1+z)^4 scaling, confirming IC/CMB as the dominant mechanism driving the X-ray enhancement. The resulting X-ray-to-radio flux ratio increases systematically with redshift and is consistent with observational constraints. Finally, we show that slower jets exhibit a stronger redshift evolution of the X-ray enhancement than faster jets, highlighting the critical role of jet propagation length scales and particle energy evolution. The simulations also naturally reproduce the steepening of the radio spectral index with redshift - the α-z relation - thus providing a unified framework that allows to interpret the multiwavelength properties of high-redshift radio sources.

We confirm for the first time the existence of distinctive halo bias associated with the quadrupolar type of statistical anisotropy (SA) of the linear matter density field using cosmological N-body simulations. We find that the coefficient of the SA-induced bias for cluster-sized halos takes negative values and exhibits a decreasing trend with increasing halo mass. This results in the quadrupole halo power spectra in a statistically anisotropic universe being less amplified compared to the monopole spectra. The anisotropic feature in halo bias that we found presents a promising new tool for testing the hypothesis of a statistically anisotropic universe, with significant implications for the precise verification of anisotropic inflation scenarios and vector dark matter and dark energy models.

We present the results of HI spectral stacking analysis of Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT) observations targeting the COSMOS field. The GMRT data cube contains 474 field galaxies with redshifts known from the zCOSMOS-bright 10k catalogue. Spectra for the galaxies are co-added and the stacked spectrum allows us to make a sim 3σ measurement of the average HI mass. Using this average HI mass along with the integral optical B-band luminosity of the galaxies and the luminosity density of the COSMOS field, a volume normalisation is applied to obtain the cosmic HI mass density (Ω_{rm HI}). We find a cosmic HI mass density of Ω_{rm HI} = (0.42 pm 0.16) times 10^{-3} at z sim 0.37, which is the highest-redshift measurement of Ω_{rm HI} ever made using HI spectral stacking. The value we obtained for Ω_{rm HI} at z sim 0.37 is consistent with that measured from large blind 21-cm surveys at z = 0 as well as measurements from other HI stacking experiments at lower redshifts. Our measurement in conjunction with earlier measurements indicates that there has been no significant evolution of HI gas abundance over the last 4 Gyr. A weighted mean of Ω_{rm HI} from all 21-cm measurements at redshifts z lesssim 0.4 gives Ω_{rm HI} = (0.35 pm 0.01) times 10^{-3}. The Ω_{rm HI} measured (from HI 21-cm emission measurements) at z lesssim 0.4 is however approximately half that measured from Damped Lyman-α Absorption (DLA) systems at z gtrsim 2. Deeper surveys with existing and upcoming instruments will be critical to understand the evolution of Ω_{rm HI} in the redshift range intermediate between z sim 0.4 and the range probed by DLA observations.

We search for dark matter (DM) annihilating subhalos of the Milky Way halo among the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) unassociated sources. We construct, for the first time, a statistical model of the unassociated sources at latitudes above 10 degrees. The latter is built as a combination of both DM annihilation subhalos as well as Galactic and extragalactic astrophysical components. The astrophysical components are constructed based on distributions of associated sources, while the distribution of DM subhalos is derived from Monte Carlo simulations. In this model we take into account the differences in the distributions of associated and unassociated sources including both covariate and prior probability shifts (both being forms of ``dataset shifts''). Previous searches of DM subhalos were based on classify-and-count strategies, while the approach adopted in this work is based on quantification learning, which allows one to determine a well-defined statistical interpretation of the contribution of a population of DM subhalos to the unassociated Fermi-LAT sources. In the bb annihilation channel and for a range of DM masses from 10 GeV to 1 TeV, we don't find a significant contribution from DM subhalos and derive a statistical 95% confidence upper limit on the DM annihilation cross section in this channel. While the derived limits are consistent with previous classify-and-count approaches, our generative statistical model opens new avenues for population studies of Fermi-LAT sources and, more generally, for searches of anomalies on top of backgrounds in presence of statistical and systematic uncertainties.

Recent measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and the South Pole Telescope (SPT) have placed the strictest constraints on the primordial scalar perturbation spectrum, reporting a spectral index of n_ssim0.967-0.98 at 95% confidence level. This result indicates a stronger scale invariance of the scalar perturbation than earlier estimates, posing challenges for numerous inflation models. In this work, we propose a novel inflationary scenario based on Weyl scale-invariant gravity, where the quadratic curvature establishes the scale invariance of the scalar spectrum, while the higher-order extensions imprint the observed slight deviation. Specifically, the exponential curvature extensions are introduced to suppress the mass divergence of the inflaton. We find such scenario naturally yields leading-order predictions of n_ssimeq1-3/(2N)sim0.97-0.975 or n_ssimeq1-5/(3N)sim0.967-0.972 for various models, in excellent agreement with the ACT/SPT constraints. This result builds a concrete bridge between theoretical and observational scale invariance, implying an enduring cosmic echo of the primordial symmetry.

Statistics that capture the directional dependence of the baryon distribution in the cosmic web enable unique tests of cosmology and astrophysical feedback. We use constrained oriented stacking of thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) maps to measure the anisotropic distribution of hot gas 2.5-40 Mpc away from galaxy clusters embedded in massive filaments and superclusters. The cluster selection and orientation (at a scale of sim15 Mpc) use Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data, while expanded tSZ maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Data Release 6 enable a sim3times more significant measurement of the extended gas compared to the technique's proof-of-concept. Decomposing stacks into cosine multipoles of order m, we detect a dipole (m=1) and quadrupole (m=2) at 8-10sigma, as well as evidence for m=4 signal at up to 6sigma, indicating sensitivity to late-time non-Gaussianity. We compare to the Cardinal simulations with spherical gas models pasted onto dark matter halos. The fiducial tSZ data can discriminate between two models that deplete pressure differently in low-mass halos (mimicking astrophysical feedback), preferring higher average pressure in extended structures. However, uncertainty in the amount of cosmic infrared background contamination reduces the constraining power. Additionally, we apply the technique to DES galaxy density and weak lensing to study for the first time their oriented relationships with tSZ. In the tSZ-to-lensing relation, averaged on 7.5 Mpc (transverse) scales, we observe dependence on redshift but not shape or radial distance. Thus, on large scales, the superclustering of gas pressure, galaxies, and total matter is coherent in shape and extent.

In this article, we consider a newly proposed parameterization of the viscosity coefficient zeta, specifically zeta=zeta_0 {Omega^s_m} H , where zeta_0 = zeta_0{{Omega^s_{m_0}}} within the coincident f(Q) gravity formalism. We consider a non-linear function f(Q)= -Q +alpha Q^n, where alpha and n are arbitrary model parameters, which is a power-law correction to the STEGR scenario. We find an autonomous system by invoking the dimensionless density parameters as the governing phase-space variables. We discuss the physical significance of the model corresponding to the parameter choices n=-1 and n=2 along with the exponent choices s=0, 0.5, and 1.05. We find that model I shows the stable de-Sitter type or stable phantom type (depending on the choice of exponent s) behavior with no transition epoch, whereas model II shows the evolutionary phase from the radiation epoch to the accelerated de-Sitter epoch via passing through the matter-dominated epoch. Hence, we conclude that model I provides a good description of the late-time cosmology but fails to describe the transition epoch, whereas model II modifies the description in the context of the early universe and provides a good description of the matter and radiation era along with the transition phase.

We present the first joint analysis of the power spectrum and bispectrum using the Data Release 1 (DR1) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), focusing on Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) and quasars (QSOs) across a redshift range of 0.4leq zleq2.1. By combining the two- and three-point statistics, we are able to partially break the degeneracy between the logarithmic growth rate, f(z), and the amplitude of dark matter fluctuations, σ_s8(z), which cannot be measured separately in analyses that only involve the power spectrum. In comparison with the (fiducial) Planck ΛCDM cosmology we obtain f/f^fid={0.888_{-0.089}^{+0.186},0.977_{-0.220}^{+0.182},1.030_{-0.085}^{+0.368}}, σ_{s8}/σ^fid_s8={1.224_{-0.133}^{+0.091},1.071_{-0.163}^{+0.278},1.000_{-0.223}^{+0.088}} respectively for the three LRG redshift bins, corresponding to a cumulative 10.1\% constraint on f, and of 8.4\% on σ_s8, including the systematic error budget. The cumulative constraints for the ShapeFit compressed parameters from our joint power spectrum-bispectrum analysis are respectively σ_{α_iso}=0.9% (9\% improvement with respect to our power spectrum-only analysis); σ_{α_AP}=2.3% (no improvement with respect to power spectrum-only analysis, which is expected given that the bispectrum monopole has no significant anisotropic signal); σ_{fσ_s8}=5.1% (9\% improvement); σ_{m+n}=2.3% (11\% improvement). These results are fully consistent with the main DESI power spectrum analysis, demonstrating the robustness of the DESI cosmological constraints, and compatible with Planck ΛCDM cosmology.

Calculating the action and the interaction Hamiltonian at higher orders in cosmological perturbation theory is a cumbersome task. We employ the formalism of EFT of inflation in models of single field ultra slow-roll inflation and obtain a non-perturbative result for the Hamiltonian in terms of the Goldstone field pi. To complete the dictionary, a non-linear relation between the curvature perturbations and pi is presented. Equipped with these non-linear results, we calculate the higher order loop corrections in USR models which are employed for PBHs formation. It is shown that the loop corrections on long CMB scales increase rapidly with the number of loop L and the setup will go out of perturbative control at the four-loop level.

Ongoing and upcoming galaxy redshift surveys, such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey, will observe vast regions of sky and a wide range of redshifts. In order to model the observations and address various systematic uncertainties, N-body simulations are routinely adopted, however, the number of large simulations with sufficiently high mass resolution is usually limited by available computing time. Therefore, achieving a simulation volume with the effective statistical errors significantly smaller than those of the observations becomes prohibitively expensive. In this study, we apply the Convergence Acceleration by Regression and Pooling (CARPool) method to mitigate the sample variance of the DESI-like galaxy clustering in the AbacusSummit simulations, with the assistance of the quasi-N-body simulations FastPM. Based on the halo occupation distribution (HOD) models, we construct different FastPM galaxy catalogs, including the luminous red galaxies (LRGs), emission line galaxies (ELGs), and quasars, with their number densities and two-point clustering statistics well matched to those of AbacusSummit. We also employ the same initial conditions between AbacusSummit and FastPM to achieve high cross-correlation, as it is useful in effectively suppressing the variance. Our method of reducing noise in clustering is equivalent to performing a simulation with volume larger by a factor of 5 and 4 for LRGs and ELGs, respectively. We also mitigate the standard deviation of the LRG bispectrum with the triangular configurations k_2=2k_1=0.2 h/Mpc by a factor of 1.6. With smaller sample variance on galaxy clustering, we are able to constrain the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) scale parameters to higher precision. The CARPool method will be beneficial to better constrain the theoretical systematics of BAO, redshift space distortions (RSD) and primordial non-Gaussianity (NG).

We report the discovery of bimodal structure in the drift rate distribution of upward-drifting burst clusters from the hyperactive repeating fast radio burst FRB 20240114A. Using unsupervised machine learning (UMAP dimensionality reduction combined with HDBSCAN density-based clustering) applied to 233 upward-drifting burst clusters from the FAST telescope dataset, we identify a distinct subpopulation of 45 burst clusters (Cluster C1) with mean drift rates 2.5x higher than typical upward-drifting burst clusters (245.6 vs 98.1 MHz/ms). Gaussian mixture modeling reveals strong evidence for bimodality (delta-BIC = 296.6), with clearly separated modes (Ashman's D = 2.70 > 2) and a statistically significant gap in the distribution (11.3 sigma). Crucially, we demonstrate that this bimodality persists when restricting the analysis to single-component (U1) burst clusters only (delta-BIC = 19.9, Ashman's D = 2.71), confirming that the result is not an artifact of combining single- and multi-component burst clusters with different drift rate definitions. The extreme-drift subpopulation also exhibits systematically lower peak frequencies (-7%), shorter durations (-29%), and distinct clustering in multi-dimensional feature space. These findings are suggestive of two spatially separated emission regions in the magnetosphere, each producing upward-drifting burst clusters with distinct physical characteristics, although confirmation requires observations from additional epochs and sources.

Redshift drift effect, an observational probe that indenpendent of cosmological models, presents unique applications in specific cosmological epoch. By quantifying redshift drift signal , researchers can determine the rate of the Universe's accelerated expansion and impose constraints on cosmological models and parameters. This study evaluates the precision in cosmological parameters estimation derived from this signal via HI 21cm signal, that observed by the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) telescope, with spectral resolutions of 0.001 Hz and 0.002 Hz over an observational period of Delta T = 0.5 year, utilizing two established techniques: the canonical redshift drift and the differential redshift drift method. The primary objective of this project is to ascertain the rate of cosmic acceleration and establish a solid foundation for real-time cosmology. The results reveal that both the two methods impose highly precise constraints on cosmological parameters, with accuracy reaching the level of millimeter per second (mm/s) or better. However, the canonical method provides relatively less stringent compared to the differential approach. Furthermore, when solely constraining the matter density parameter Omega_m, the strategy can be adapted to the canonical method. Nonetheless, the differential method exhibits clear advantages when simultaneously constraining the matter density parameter Omega_m and the equation of state of dark energy. These findings validate SKA's capability in detecting redshift drift and refining observational cosmology and indicates the effect can offer superior diagnostic capabilities compared to other techniques, provided that appropriate observational equipment or sufficient observational time is employed.

An avenue for understanding cosmological galaxy formation is to compare morphometric parameters in observations and simulations of galaxy assembly. In this second paper of the ASymba: Asymmetries of HI in SIMBA Galaxies series, we measure atomic gas HI asymmetries in spatially-resolved detections from the untargetted WALLABY survey, and compare them to realizations of WALLABY-like mock samples from the SIMBA cosmological simulations. We develop a Scanline Tracing method to create mock galaxy HI datacubes which minimizes shot noise along the spectral dimension compared to particle-based methods, and therefore spurious asymmetry contributions. We compute 1D and 3D asymmetries for spatially-resolved WALLABY Pilot Survey detections, and find that the highest 3D asymmetries A3D>0.5 stem from interacting systems or detections with strong bridges or tails. We then construct a series of WALLABY-like mock realizations drawn from the SIMBA 50 Mpc simulation volume, and compare their asymmetry distributions. We find that the incidence of high A3D detections is higher in WALLABY than in the SIMBA mocks, but that difference is not statistically significant (p-value = 0.05). The statistical power of quantitative comparisons of asymmetries such as the one presented here will improve as the WALLABY survey progresses, and as simulation volumes and resolutions increase.

Scalar fields are ubiquitous in theories of high-energy physics. In the context of cosmic inflation, this suggests the existence of spectator fields, which provide a subdominant source of energy density. We show that spectator fields boost the inflationary production of primordial black holes, with single-field ultra-slow roll evolution supplanted by a phase of evolution along the spectator direction, and primordial perturbations amplified by the resulting multifield dynamics. This generic mechanism is largely free from the severe fine-tuning that afflicts single-field inflationary PBH models.

We study the formation of primordial black holes (PBHs) and stochastic gravitational waves background (SGWB) produced by the supercooled radion phase transition (PT) in warped extra-dimension models solving the gauge hierarchy problem. We first determine how the SGWB and the produced PBH mass and abundance depend on the warped model's infrared energy scale rho, and the number of holographic colors N. With this finding, we recast on the plane {rho, N} the current SGWB and PBH constraints, as well as the expected parameter reaches of GW detectors, as LISA and ET, and the gravitational lensing ones, such as NGRST. On the same plane, we also map the collider bounds on massive graviton production, and cosmological bounds on the radion phenomenology. We find that, for N sim 10-50, the considered PT predicts a PBH population mass in the range M_{rm PBH}sim(10^{-1} - 10^{-25}) M_{odot} for rho sim (10^{-4} - 10^{8}) TeV. In the range rho simeq (0.05 - 0.5) GeV, it can explain the recent SGWB hint at nHz frequencies and generate PBH binaries with mass M_{rm PBH}sim(0.1 - 1 ) M_odot detectable at LISA and ET. The experimentally allowed mass region where PBHs can account for the whole dark matter abundance, and are produced with a tuning lesssim 10^{-4}, corresponds to 10 TeV lesssim rholesssim 10^4 TeV. These PBHs can compensate the lack of natural candidates for dark matter in warped extra dimensional models. Such a region represents a great science case where forthcoming and future colliders like HE-LHC and FCC-hh, gravitational-wave observatories and other PBHs probes play a key complementary role.

In this paper, we emphasise the recent observational findings from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 2 (DESI DR2), which provide compelling evidence for a possible deviation from the standard ΛCDM (Cold Dark Matter) cosmology, suggesting the presence of a dynamically evolving effective dark energy component. Motivated by this, we construct a theoretical framework in which a massive cosmological vector field, B^μ, couples non-minimally to the background curvature through marginal interactions, offering a controlled mechanism to realise the deviation from the ΛCDM model. A detailed analysis of the effective Equation of State (EoS) parameter w(tilde H) reveals a narrow region of parameter space consistent with current cosmological observations presented by DESI. The analysis yields a stringent upper bound for the coupling constant λ to be λ<2.98times10^{-11}, a very strong bound on mass 3.1356times10^{-66}~g leq m leq 3.3627times10^{-66}~g, and the admissible range -0.405 leq log_{10}tildeγleq -0.38 for which present-day value w_0 = w(tilde H = 1) corresponding to a deviation δ= w_0 + 1 that lies within the region 0.107 leq δleq 0.217. This interval reproduces the deviation inferred from the combined DESI, Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), and Pantheon+ data, reflecting a controlled departure from the ΛCDM behaviour. In summary, the results suggest that the proposed framework of a massive vector field can account for the departure from ΛCDM behaviour highlighted by DESI in the current cosmic acceleration. Furthermore, the framework approaches the ΛCDM behaviour in late-time tgtrsim28 Gyr, establishing a direct phenomenological link between the underlying parameters and the observed dynamical nature of dark energy.

We present the phenomenology of the charged Higgs boson H^pm appearing in a fermionic dark matter model mediated by an additional scalar doublet. In order to couple the dark matter fermion to the scalar doublet, we introduce a U(1)_X gauge symmetry, which is spontaneously broken at electroweak symmetry breaking, resulting in a massive Z' gauge boson. Since Z' is generically light, the model is subject to strong constraints from electroweak precision observables. As a result, the charged Higgs boson mass allowed by current experimental bounds is typically light in this model, 110 GeV <m_{H^pm}< 170 GeV. Such a light charged Higgs boson will be produced mainly through top-quark decays at the LHC. Additionally, depending on the mass of the additional neutral Higgs boson h and the dark gauge boson Z', the direct production channels pp to H^pm Z' and pp to H^pm h can become sizable. We investigate the corresponding signal processes at the LHC to assess the discovery potential for H^pm. Current ATLAS and CMS searches for light charged Higgs bosons already impose further constraints on the model. We also discuss the implications of dark matter in relation to the charged Higgs boson phenomenology.

Baryonic effects created by feedback processes associated with galaxy formation are an important, poorly constrained systematic effect for models of large-scale structure as probed by weak gravitational lensing. Upcoming surveys require fast methods to predict and marginalize over the potential impact of baryons on the total matter power spectrum. Here we use the FLAMINGO cosmological hydrodynamical simulations to test a recent proposal to approximate the matter power spectrum as the sum of the linear matter power spectrum and a constant multiple, A_{rm mod}, of the difference between the linear and non-linear gravity-only power spectra. We show that replacing this constant multiple with a one-parameter family of sigmoid functions of the wavenumber k allows to us match the predictions of simulations with different feedback strengths for z leq 1, k < 3~hrm Mpc^{-1}, and the different cosmological models in the FLAMINGO suite. The baryonic response predicted by FLAMINGO models that use jet-like AGN feedback instead of the fiducial thermally-driven AGN feedback can also be reproduced, but at the cost of increasing the number of parameters in the sigmoid function from one to three. The assumption that A_{rm mod} depends only on k breaks down for decaying dark matter models, highlighting the need for more advanced baryon response models when studying cosmological models that deviate strongly from LambdaCDM.

For a parametric model of distributions, the closest distribution in the model to the true distribution located outside the model is considered. Measuring the closeness between two distributions with the Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence, the closest distribution is called the "information projection." The estimation risk of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is defined as the expectation of K-L divergence between the information projection and the predictive distribution with plugged-in MLE. Here, the asymptotic expansion of the risk is derived up to n^{-2}-order, and the sufficient condition on the risk for the Bayes error rate between the true distribution and the information projection to be lower than a specified value is investigated. Combining these results, the "p-n criterion" is proposed, which determines whether the MLE is sufficiently close to the information projection for the given model and sample. In particular, the criterion for an exponential family model is relatively simple and can be used for a complex model with no explicit form of normalizing constant. This criterion can constitute a solution to the sample size or model acceptance problem. Use of the p-n criteria is demonstrated for two practical datasets. The relationship between the results and information criteria is also studied.

In this work, we leverage CMB data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and LSS data from the imaging survey conducted by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) to study the distribution of gas around galaxy groups at low redshift, z approx 0.3, via the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect. In particular, we perform velocity-weighted stacking on the photometric Bright Galaxy Sample (BGS) to isolate the monopole and quadrupole of the kSZ signal, orienting the stacked images along 2D filaments identified using the Hessian of the projected gravitational potential. We find a 7.2σ detection in the monopole of the signal (i.e., the gas density profile) and a 4σ detection in the quadrupole (m = 2), constituting the first measurement of the alignment between gas distribution and the cosmic web through the kSZ effect. As it is a linear probe of the local gas density, the kSZ has heightened sensitivity to the warm-hot intergalactic medium (WHIM), which is believed to house the majority of the ``missing baryons.'' Mapping out the gas density at low redshifts, as enabled by our measurements, is crucial for weak lensing surveys, for which the impact of baryons on small scales is a major impediment. We compare the anisotropic signal against two hydrodynamical simulations, TNG300-1 and Illustris, which have very different baryonic feedback prescriptions. We find that the anisotropic signal measured in the data is comparable but slightly larger and more extended compared with the simulations. This suggests that there is excess accretion and feedback taking place through the filaments, hinting at the possible presence of spin-filament alignment of the BGS objects.

We derive a new constraint on the expansion history of the Universe by applying the cosmic chronometers method, studying the age evolution of high-redshift galaxies with a full-spectral-fitting approach. We select a sample of 39 massive (log(M/M_odot)>10.8) and passive (log(sSFR/yr^{-1})<-11) galaxies from the data release 4 of the VANDELS survey at 1<z<1.5, combining different selection criteria to minimize the potential contamination by star-forming outliers. We perform full-spectral-fitting jointly on spectra and photometry of our sources with the code BAGPIPES, without any cosmological assumption on the age of the population. The derived physical properties of the selected galaxies are characteristic of a passive population, with short star formation timescales (<τ>=0.28pm0.02 Gyr), low dust extinction (<A_{V,dust}>=0.43pm0.02 mag), and sub-solar metallicities (<Z/Z_{odot}>=0.44pm0.01). The ages show a decreasing trend with redshift compatible with a standard cosmological model, even if no cosmological constraint is assumed in the fit, and a clear mass-downsizing pattern. Testing the impact of the star formation history on the results, we find only a maximum 2\% fluctuation in age and metallicity. By fitting the median age-redshift relation with a flat ΛCDM model and assuming a Gaussian prior on Ω_{M,0}= 0.3pm0.02 from late-Universe probes, we obtain H_0=67_{-15}^{+14}:km:s^{-1}:Mpc^{-1}. In the end, we derive a new estimate of the Hubble parameter with the cosmic chronometers method, H(z=1.26)=135pm65:km:s^{-1}:Mpc^{-1} including statistical and systematic errors. While the error budget is currently dominated by the scarcity of the sample, this work proves the potential strength of the cosmic chronometers approach up to z>1, especially in view of incoming large spectroscopic surveys like Euclid. (abridged)

We describe in the context of the particle physics (PP) standard model (SM) `PP-SM' the understanding of the primordial properties and composition of the Universe in the temperature range 130GeV>T>20keV. The Universe evolution is described using FLRW cosmology. We present a global view on particle content across time and describe the different evolution eras using deceleration parameter q. We follow the arrow of time in the expanding and cooling Universe: After the PP-SM heavies (t, h, W, Z) diminish in abundance below Tsimeq 50GeV, the PP-SM plasma in the Universe is governed by the strongly interacting Quark-Gluon content. Once the temperature drops below Tsimeq 150MeV, quarks and gluons hadronize into strongly interacting matter particles. Rapid disappearance of baryonic antimatter completes at T_B=38.2MeV. We study the ensuing disappearance of strangeness and mesons in general. We show that the different eras defined by particle populations are barely separated from each other with abundance of muons fading out just prior to T=O(2.5)MeV, the era of emergence of the free-streaming neutrinos. We discuss the two relevant fundamental constants controlling the decoupling of neutrinos. We subsequently follow the primordial Universe as it passes through the hot dense electron-positron plasma epoch. The high density of positron antimatter disappears near T=20.3keV: Nuclear reactions occur in the presence of a highly mobile and relatively strongly interacting electron-positron plasma phase. We apply plasma theory methods to describe the strong screening effects between heavy dust particle (nucleons). We analyze the paramagnetic characteristics of the electron-positron plasma when exposed to an external primordial magnetic field.

Since their discovery, AGN light curves are known to be intrinsically variable. In the optical/UV band, this variability is consistent with correlated or red noise and is particularly well described by the damped random walk (DRW) model. In this work, we evaluate the feasibility of a new method for identifying spatially unresolved couples of AGN through a fully Bayesian time-domain analysis of the observed light curves (LCs). More specifically, we check whether observed LCs are better described by a single DRW, which we interpret as emitted by a single massive black hole (MBH), or a pair of independent DRWs, generated by a pair of MBHs. We test the method on mock LCs associated with a single MBH and pairs generated with different cadences and lengths of observational campaigns. We constrained the occurrence of false positives, that is, the percentage of single MBH LCs that show substantial evidence in favour of the unresolved MBH pair scenario, finding a fraction of 0.2% and 0.59% in the even and uneven sampling scenarios. We discuss how well the method recovers the model parameters, showing that about 51% and 7% of the simulated LCs have all the recovered parameters within 20% of their true values in our best scenario of evenly sampled LCs for the single MBH and MBH pair scenarios, respectively. We finally study the region of the parameter space in which the detection of an MBH pair is possible, finding that such objects can be correctly identified if the timescales of the process describing the noise are very different, with a ratio smaller than ~0.2, and the variability amplitudes are similar, with their ratio bigger than ~0.2. When limiting to such a region of the parameter space, the fraction of pairs with all the recovered parameters within 20% of the injected values increases up to about 14% and 8% for evenly and unevenly sampled LCs, respectively.

In this work we propose an analytical model that reproduces the core-bounds phase of gravitational waves (GW) of Rapidly Rotating (RR) from Core Collapse Supernovae (CCSNe), as a function of three parameters, the arrival time tau, the ratio of the kinetic and potential energy beta and a phenomenological parameter alpha related to rotation and equation of state (EOS). To validate the model we use 126 waveforms from the Richers catalog Richers_2017 selected with the criteria of exploring a range of rotation profiles, and involving EOS. To quantify the degree of accuracy of the proposed model, with a particular focus on the rotation parameter beta, we show that the average Fitting Factor (FF) between the simulated waveforms with the templates is 94.4\%. In order to estimate the parameters we propose a frequentist matched filtering approach in real interferometric noise which does not require assigning any priors. We use the Matched Filter (MF) technique, where we inject a bank of templates considering simulated colored Gaussian noise and the real noise of O3L1. For example for A300w6.00\_BHBLP at 10Kpc we obtain a standar deviation of sigma = 3.34times 10^{-3} for simulated colored Gaussian noise and sigma= 1.46times 10^{-2} for real noise. On the other hand, from the asymptotic expansion of the variance we obtain the theoretical minimum error for beta at 10 kpc and optimal orientation. The estimation error in this case is from 10^{-2} to 10^{-3} as beta increases. We show that the results of the estimation error of beta for the 3-parameter space (3D) is consistent with the single-parameter space (1D), which allows us to conclude that beta is decoupled from the others two parameters.

This study presents the modeling of the gravitational wave (GW) bias parameter by bridging a connection between simulated GW sources and galaxies in low redshift galaxy surveys 2MPZ and WISExSCOS (WISC). We study this connection by creating a mock GW catalog, populating galaxy surveys with binary black holes (BBHs) for different scenarios of the GW host-galaxy probability as a function of the galaxy stellar mass. We probe the observable consequences of this connection by exploring the spatial clustering of the GW sources in terms of the GW bias parameter. We consider a phenomenological broken power law model for the host-galaxy probability function, with a potential turnover M_{K} at high stellar mass (10^{11} M_{odot} in the fiducial model) where the star formation efficiency begins to drop. We vary the parameters of the GW host-galaxy probability function and find that generically the GW bias increases as M_{K} increases (and gets suppressed as M_{K} decreases). The change in the GW bias parameter shows a maximum change of about 30% for different scenarios explored in this work in comparison to the galaxy bias. Future measurements of the GW bias can help constrain M_{K} and the slopes of the host-galaxy probability function and thus offer insights into the underlying astrophysical processes.

The study of CP violation in hyperon transitions has a long history. In the early 2000s the HyperCP experiment made a major effort to seek CP-odd signals in the decay sequence Xi^-toLambda pi^- and Lambdato ppi^-, which motivated more searches. Most recently the BESIII and LHCb Collaborations have acquired or improved the upper bounds on CP violation in a variety of hyperon nonleptonic processes, including Sigma^+to npi^+ and Sigma^+to ppi^0. These measurements have not reached the standard-model level yet, but have stimulated a renewed interest in CP-violating new physics in strange-quark decay beyond what is constrained by the parameters varepsilon and varepsilon^prime from the kaon sector. In this paper, after updating the standard-model expectations for CP-odd observables in the modes Sigma^pmto Npi, we revisit new-physics scenarios that could enhance the corresponding quantities in Lambdato Npi and XitoLambdapi and apply them to the Sigma^pm modes. We find that the CP asymmetries in the latter can be significantly increased over the standard-model expectations, at levels which may be tested in the ongoing BESIII experiment and in future endeavors such as PANDA and the Super Tau Charm Facility.

In the past two years, several points of view have been proposed to address the question of the generalization of the theory of free probability to random tensors with different invariances, and it is unclear at this point whether they lead to the same notions of tensorial free cumulants and freeness. One way to approach this problem, developed by Collins, Gurau and the second named author for local unitary invariant random tensors, relies on finite size quantities involving averages over the invariance group, and whose asymptotics naturally possess the properties expected for tensorial generalizations of free cumulants of arbitrary orders. At this point, this approach has only been carried out for certain distributions, and for a subset of the moments that define such theories, and a more systematic and exhaustive study is lacking. This is the program initiated in this paper: we link this approach to the one proposed by Nechita and Park; extend a number of their results as well as those of the aforementioned paper to arbitrary orders of fluctuations, thereby generalizing higher order free cumulants; push further the study of distributions with larger invariance groups; detail the link with the asymptotics of the free-energies of the tensor HCIZ and BGW integrals; and provide formulae for tensorial free cumulants of products of tensors. Another important question is that of the definition of concrete distributions whose tensorial free-cumulants take non-trivial values. We compute the tensorial free cumulants for Gaussian random tensors with non-trivial covariances, and show that they provide such examples.

Cascaded models are multi-scale generative models with a marked capacity for producing perceptually impressive samples at high resolutions. In this work, we show that they can also be excellent likelihood models, so long as we overcome a fundamental difficulty with probabilistic multi-scale models: the intractability of the likelihood function. Chiefly, in cascaded models each intermediary scale introduces extraneous variables that cannot be tractably marginalized out for likelihood evaluation. This issue vanishes by modeling the diffusion process on latent spaces induced by a class of transformations we call hierarchical volume-preserving maps, which decompose spatially structured data in a hierarchical fashion without introducing local distortions in the latent space. We demonstrate that two such maps are well-known in the literature for multiscale modeling: Laplacian pyramids and wavelet transforms. Not only do such reparameterizations allow the likelihood function to be directly expressed as a joint likelihood over the scales, we show that the Laplacian pyramid and wavelet transform also produces significant improvements to the state-of-the-art on a selection of benchmarks in likelihood modeling, including density estimation, lossless compression, and out-of-distribution detection. Investigating the theoretical basis of our empirical gains we uncover deep connections to score matching under the Earth Mover's Distance (EMD), which is a well-known surrogate for perceptual similarity. Code can be found at https://github.com/lihenryhfl/pcdm{this https url}.

We present cosmological analysis of 12 nearby (z<0.06) Type IIP supernovae (SNe IIP) observed with the ROTSE-IIIb telescope. To achieve precise photometry, we present a new image differencing technique that is implemented for the first time on the ROTSE SN photometry pipeline. With this method, we find up to a 20\% increase in the detection efficiency and significant reduction in residual RMS scatter of the SN lightcurves when compared to the previous pipeline performance. We use the published optical spectra and broadband photometry of well studied SNe IIP to establish temporal models for ejecta velocity and photospheric temperature evolution for our SNe IIP population. This study yields measurements that are competitive to other methods even when the data are limited to a single epoch during the photospheric phase of SNe IIP. Using the fully reduced ROTSE photometry and optical spectra, we apply these models to the respective photometric epochs for each SN in the ROTSE IIP sample. This facilitates the use of the Expanding Photosphere Method (EPM) to obtain distance estimates to their respective host galaxies. We then perform cosmological parameter fitting using these EPM distances from which we measure the Hubble constant to be 72.9^{+5.7}_{-4.3}~{rm kms^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}, which is consistent with the standard Lambda CDM model values derived using other independent techniques.

Correlation does not imply causation, but patterns of statistical association between variables can be exploited to infer a causal structure (even with purely observational data) with the burgeoning field of causal discovery. As a purely observational science, astrophysics has much to gain by exploiting these new methods. The supermassive black hole (SMBH)--galaxy interaction has long been constrained by observed scaling relations, that is low-scatter correlations between variables such as SMBH mass and the central velocity dispersion of stars in a host galaxy's bulge. This study, using advanced causal discovery techniques and an up-to-date dataset, reveals a causal link between galaxy properties and dynamically-measured SMBH masses. We apply a score-based Bayesian framework to compute the exact conditional probabilities of every causal structure that could possibly describe our galaxy sample. With the exact posterior distribution, we determine the most likely causal structures and notice a probable causal reversal when separating galaxies by morphology. In elliptical galaxies, bulge properties (built from major mergers) tend to influence SMBH growth, while in spiral galaxies, SMBHs are seen to affect host galaxy properties, potentially through feedback in gas-rich environments. For spiral galaxies, SMBHs progressively quench star formation, whereas in elliptical galaxies, quenching is complete, and the causal connection has reversed. Our findings support theoretical models of hierarchical assembly of galaxies and active galactic nuclei feedback regulating galaxy evolution. Our study suggests the potentiality for further exploration of causal links in astrophysical and cosmological scaling relations, as well as any other observational science.

The basic premise of using HII starburst galaxies (HIIGs) as cosmic "standard candels" is that there is a significant correlation between the Hbeta luminosity (L) and the velocity dispersion (sigma) of the ionized gas from HIIGs measurements, which can be called as the empirical L - sigma relation. However, the scaling L - sigma relation well-calibrated with the lower-redshift HIIGs is unfitted for the higher-redshift HIIGs. To solve this problem, we explore new relational expression for the L - sigma relation which should be suitable for both lower-redshift and higher-redshift HIIGs. After reconstructing the Hubble diagram with the Gaussian process (GP) method from the Pantheon+ supernovae Ia sample, we examine and compare six different revised formulas of L - sigma relation. Furthermore, we use the Bayesian evidence to compare the revised L - sigma relations with the analysis of a joint sample of 36 giant extragalactic HII regions (GEHRs) and 145 HIIGs. It turns out that the redshift-dependent bilinear correction and the quadratic sigma based correction are significantly better than the others. Moreover, a quadratic sigma based correction is the most supported one. It suggests that the appropriate corrections to the L - sigma relation should be considered when the HIIGs are used as a kind of cosmological probes.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

Inflation typically predicts a quasi scale-invariant spectrum of gravitational waves. In models of slow-roll inflation, the amplitude of such a background is too small to allow direct detection without a dedicated space-based experiment such as the proposed BBO or DECIGO. In this paper we note that particle production during inflation can generate a feature in the spectrum of primordial gravitational waves. We discuss the possibility that such a feature might be detected by ground-based laser interferometers such as Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, which will become operational in the next few years. We also discuss the prospects of detection by a space interferometer like LISA. We first study gravitational waves induced by nonperturbative, explosive particle production during inflation: while explosive production of scalar quanta does not generate a significant bump in the primordial tensor spectrum, production of vectors can. We also show that chiral gravitational waves produced by electromagnetic fields amplified by an axion-like inflaton could be detectable by Advanced LIGO.

The recent detection of nanohertz stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds (SGWBs) by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) promises unique insights into astrophysical and cosmological origins. However, traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches become prohibitively expensive for large datasets. We employ a normalizing flow (NF)-based machine learning framework to accelerate Bayesian inference in PTA analyses. For the first time, we perform Bayesian model comparison across SGWB source models in the framework of machine learning by training NF architectures on the PTA dataset (NANOGrav 15-year) and enabling direct evidence estimation via learned harmonic mean estimators. Our examples include 10 conventional SGWB source models such as supermassive black hole binaries, power-law spectrum, cosmic strings, domain walls, scalar-induced GWs, first-order phase transitions, and dual scenario/inflationary gravitational wave. Our approach jointly infers 20 red noise parameters and 2 SGWB parameters per model in sim 20\,hours (including training), compared to sim 10\,days with MCMC. Critically, the NF method preserves rigorous model selection accuracy, with small Hellinger distances (lesssim 0.3) relative to MCMC posteriors, and reproduces MCMC-based Bayes factors across all tested scenarios. This scalable technique for SGWB source comparison will be essential for future PTA expansions and next-generation arrays such as the SKA, offering orders-of-magnitude efficiency gains without sacrificing physical interpretability.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used to evaluate natural language generation tasks as automated metrics. However, the likelihood, a measure of LLM's plausibility for a sentence, can vary due to superficial differences in sentences, such as word order and sentence structure. It is therefore possible that there might be a likelihood bias if LLMs are used for evaluation: they might overrate sentences with higher likelihoods while underrating those with lower likelihoods. In this paper, we investigate the presence and impact of likelihood bias in LLM-based evaluators. We also propose a method to mitigate the likelihood bias. Our method utilizes highly biased instances as few-shot examples for in-context learning. Our experiments in evaluating the data-to-text and grammatical error correction tasks reveal that several LLMs we test display a likelihood bias. Furthermore, our proposed method successfully mitigates this bias, also improving evaluation performance (in terms of correlation of models with human scores) significantly.

The reionization of helium is thought to occur at 2.5lesssim zlesssim4, marking the last phase transition and final global heating event of the intergalactic medium (IGM). Since it is driven by rare quasars, helium reionization should give rise to strong temperature fluctuations in the IGM between neutral and recently-ionized regions of order sigma (ln T) sim Delta T/T = 20-50%. We introduce a novel method to search for reionization-induced temperature fluctuations in the IGM by using the effective optical depths of the Lyman-alpha forest towards a large number of background quasars. Higher IGM temperatures give rise to lower effective optical depths in the Lyman-alpha forest, implying that temperature fluctuations will broaden the observed optical depth distribution. We measured the distributions of effective Lyman-alpha forest optical depths across 71 X-Shooter spectra from the XQ-100 survey in four redshift bins from z=3.76 to z=4.19 and compared them to a large-volume cosmological hydrodynamical simulation. A good agreement is found between the observations and the simulation, which does not include temperature fluctuations; therefore, we do not detect a signature of helium reionization. We then post-process the simulations to include an increasing amount of temperature fluctuations until the model becomes inconsistent with the observations. We obtain tight constraints on sigma (ln T) < 0.29 (<0.40) at 2 sigma (3 sigma) at z=3.76 when averaging over scales of 100 comoving Mpc, and weaker constraints for higher redshifts and smaller scales. Our constraints are the tightest to date, and imply that either the IGM temperature contrast caused by helium reionization is less than sim30%, or that the process has not yet significantly started at z=3.76.

We revisit axion monodromy inflation in the context of UV-complete theories and point out that its cosmological observables are sensitive to heavy fields with masses far above the Hubble scale, such as the moduli of flux compactifications. By studying a string-inspired two-field extension of axion monodromy, we reveal that the oscillatory modulation of the axion potential leads to continuous excitation of heavy fields during inflation when the modulation frequency exceeds the field masses. This finding challenges the conventional single-field description, as heavy moduli cannot be simply integrated out. Using a full bootstrap analysis, we demonstrate that this mechanism produces cosmological collider signals that bypass the usual Boltzmann suppression for heavy masses. Specifically, we identify detectably large signatures of heavy moduli in the primordial bispectrum, offering a promising avenue for probing high-energy physics through cosmological observations.

We conduct an extended analysis of dark energy constraints, in support of the findings of the DESI DR2 cosmology key paper, including DESI data, Planck CMB observations, and three different supernova compilations. Using a broad range of parametric and non-parametric methods, we explore the dark energy phenomenology and find consistent trends across all approaches, in good agreement with the w_0w_aCDM key paper results. Even with the additional flexibility introduced by non-parametric approaches, such as binning and Gaussian Processes, we find that extending LambdaCDM to include a two-parameter w(z) is sufficient to capture the trends present in the data. Finally, we examine three dark energy classes with distinct dynamics, including quintessence scenarios satisfying w geq -1, to explore what underlying physics can explain such deviations. The current data indicate a clear preference for models that feature a phantom crossing; although alternatives lacking this feature are disfavored, they cannot yet be ruled out. Our analysis confirms that the evidence for dynamical dark energy, particularly at low redshift (z lesssim 0.3), is robust and stable under different modeling choices.

Capturing aleatoric uncertainty is a critical part of many machine learning systems. In deep learning, a common approach to this end is to train a neural network to estimate the parameters of a heteroscedastic Gaussian distribution by maximizing the logarithm of the likelihood function under the observed data. In this work, we examine this approach and identify potential hazards associated with the use of log-likelihood in conjunction with gradient-based optimizers. First, we present a synthetic example illustrating how this approach can lead to very poor but stable parameter estimates. Second, we identify the culprit to be the log-likelihood loss, along with certain conditions that exacerbate the issue. Third, we present an alternative formulation, termed β-NLL, in which each data point's contribution to the loss is weighted by the β-exponentiated variance estimate. We show that using an appropriate β largely mitigates the issue in our illustrative example. Fourth, we evaluate this approach on a range of domains and tasks and show that it achieves considerable improvements and performs more robustly concerning hyperparameters, both in predictive RMSE and log-likelihood criteria.

Energy-Based Models (EBMs), also known as non-normalized probabilistic models, specify probability density or mass functions up to an unknown normalizing constant. Unlike most other probabilistic models, EBMs do not place a restriction on the tractability of the normalizing constant, thus are more flexible to parameterize and can model a more expressive family of probability distributions. However, the unknown normalizing constant of EBMs makes training particularly difficult. Our goal is to provide a friendly introduction to modern approaches for EBM training. We start by explaining maximum likelihood training with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and proceed to elaborate on MCMC-free approaches, including Score Matching (SM) and Noise Constrastive Estimation (NCE). We highlight theoretical connections among these three approaches, and end with a brief survey on alternative training methods, which are still under active research. Our tutorial is targeted at an audience with basic understanding of generative models who want to apply EBMs or start a research project in this direction.

A key challenge of modern machine learning systems is to achieve Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization -- generalizing to target data whose distribution differs from that of source data. Despite its significant importance, the fundamental question of ``what are the most effective algorithms for OOD generalization'' remains open even under the standard setting of covariate shift. This paper addresses this fundamental question by proving that, surprisingly, classical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) purely using source data (without any modification) achieves the minimax optimality for covariate shift under the well-specified setting. That is, no algorithm performs better than MLE in this setting (up to a constant factor), justifying MLE is all you need. Our result holds for a very rich class of parametric models, and does not require any boundedness condition on the density ratio. We illustrate the wide applicability of our framework by instantiating it to three concrete examples -- linear regression, logistic regression, and phase retrieval. This paper further complement the study by proving that, under the misspecified setting, MLE is no longer the optimal choice, whereas Maximum Weighted Likelihood Estimator (MWLE) emerges as minimax optimal in certain scenarios.

The angular power spectrum is a gauge-independent observable that is in principle the natural tool for analysing galaxy number counts. In practice, the problem is that the computational requirements for next-generation spectroscopic surveys such as Euclid and the Square Kilometre Array are currently unfeasible. We propose a new method to save computational time for spectroscopic angular power spectra. This hybrid method is modelled on the Fourier power spectrum approach of treating relatively thick redshift bins (redshift width ~0.1) as separate surveys. In the hybrid method, each thick bin is further subdivided into thin bins (redshift width ~0.01); all the correlations within each thick bin are computed, while cross-bin correlations beyond the thick bins are neglected. Constraints on cosmological parameters from the hybrid method are comparable to those from the standard galaxy power spectrum analysis - but they have the advantage that cosmic evolution, wide-angle and lensing effects are naturally included, while no Alcock-Paczynski correction is needed. The hybrid method delivers much tighter constraints than a 2D tomographic approach that is typical for photometric surveys, which considers only thick bins and the correlations between them. Furthermore, for standard cosmological parameters our method is not biased by neglecting the effects of lensing on number counts, while the tomographic method is strongly biased.

Words of estimative probability (WEP) are expressions of a statement's plausibility (probably, maybe, likely, doubt, likely, unlikely, impossible...). Multiple surveys demonstrate the agreement of human evaluators when assigning numerical probability levels to WEP. For example, highly likely corresponds to a median chance of 0.90+-0.08 in Fagen-Ulmschneider (2015)'s survey. In this work, we measure the ability of neural language processing models to capture the consensual probability level associated to each WEP. Firstly, we use the UNLI dataset (Chen et al., 2020) which associates premises and hypotheses with their perceived joint probability p, to construct prompts, e.g. "[PREMISE]. [WEP], [HYPOTHESIS]." and assess whether language models can predict whether the WEP consensual probability level is close to p. Secondly, we construct a dataset of WEP-based probabilistic reasoning, to test whether language models can reason with WEP compositions. When prompted "[EVENTA] is likely. [EVENTB] is impossible.", a causal language model should not express that [EVENTA&B] is likely. We show that both tasks are unsolved by off-the-shelf English language models, but that fine-tuning leads to transferable improvement.

We study stellar core growth in simulations of merging massive (M_star>10^{11},M_odot) elliptical galaxies by a supermassive black hole (SMBH) displaced by gravitational wave induced recoil velocity. With controlled, dense sampling of the SMBH recoil velocity, we find the core radius originally formed by SMBH binary scouring can grow by a factor of 2-3 when the recoil velocity exceeds sim50 per cent of the central escape velocity, and the mass deficit grows by up to a factor of sim4. Using Bayesian inference we predict the distribution of stellar core sizes formed through this process to peak at sim1,kpc. An orbital decomposition of stellar particles within the core reveals that radial orbits dominate over tube orbits when the recoil velocity exceeds the velocity dispersion of the core, whereas tube orbits dominate for the lowest recoil kicks. A change in orbital structure is reflected in the anisotropy parameter, with a central tangential bias present only for recoil velocities less than the local stellar velocity dispersion. Emulating current integral field unit observations of the stellar line-of-sight velocity distribution, we uncover a distinct signature in the Gauss-Hermite symmetric deviation coefficient h_4 that uniquely constrains the core size due to binary scouring. This signature is insensitive to the later evolution of the stellar mass distribution due to SMBH recoil. Our results provide a novel method to estimate the SMBH recoil magnitude from observations of local elliptical galaxies, and implies these galaxies primarily experienced recoil velocities less than the stellar velocity dispersion of the core.

This study investigates the morphological classification and drifting rate measurement of the repeating fast radio burst (FRB) source FRB 20240114A using the Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical Telescope (FAST). Detected on January 14, 2024, FRB 20240114A exhibited an exceptionally high burst rate, revealing unique properties. Through observational campaigns over several months, we selected a dataset comprising 3,203 bursts (2,109 burst-clusters) during a continuous monitoring session (15,780 seconds) on March 12, 2024. Improving upon previous work, we clarify the definitions of sub-bursts, bursts and burst-clusters. Using an average dispersion measures (DM) of 529.2 pc cm^{-3}, we classified the burst-clusters into Downward Drifting, Upward Drifting, No Drifting, No Evidence for Drifting, Not-Clear, and Complex burst-clusters. Among the 978 burst-clusters that exhibit drifting behavior, 233 (23.82%) show upward drifting. Additionally, if 142 upward drifting single-component burst-clusters are excluded, upward drifting double- and multi-component burst-clusters still account for 10.89% of the 836 burst-clusters exhibiting drifting behavior, equating to 91 burst-clusters. Furthermore, if only upward drifting burst-clusters with consecutive time intervals (or upward drifting bursts) are considered, only 9 bursts remain. Drifting rate comparisons with other physical quantities reveal that the drifting rate increases with peak frequency for single-component burst-clusters with drifting behavior. Moreover, in single-component burst-clusters, those with upward drifting exhibit smaller effective widths, bandwidths, and fluxes than their downward drifting counterparts. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov test further indicates that upward drifting burst-clusters possess longer consecutive time intervals than downward drifting ones, suggesting distinct underlying physical mechanisms.

Results are presented from searches for the standard model Higgs boson in proton-proton collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 and 8 TeV in the Compact Muon Solenoid experiment at the LHC, using data samples corresponding to integrated luminosities of up to 5.1 inverse femtobarns at 7 TeV and 5.3 inverse femtobarns at 8 TeV. The search is performed in five decay modes: gamma gamma, ZZ, WW, tau tau, and b b-bar. An excess of events is observed above the expected background, with a local significance of 5.0 standard deviations, at a mass near 125 GeV, signalling the production of a new particle. The expected significance for a standard model Higgs boson of that mass is 5.8 standard deviations. The excess is most significant in the two decay modes with the best mass resolution, gamma gamma and ZZ; a fit to these signals gives a mass of 125.3 +/- 0.4 (stat.) +/- 0.5 (syst.) GeV. The decay to two photons indicates that the new particle is a boson with spin different from one.

The PRObabilistic Value-Added Bright Galaxy Survey (PROVABGS) catalog will provide measurements of galaxy properties, such as stellar mass (M_*), star formation rate ({rm SFR}), stellar metallicity (Z_{rm MW}), and stellar age (t_{rm age, MW}), for >10 million galaxies of the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey. Full posterior distributions of the galaxy properties will be inferred using state-of-the-art Bayesian spectral energy distribution (SED) modeling of DESI spectroscopy and Legacy Surveys photometry. In this work, we present the SED model, Bayesian inference framework, and methodology of PROVABGS. Furthermore, we apply the PROVABGS SED modeling on realistic synthetic DESI spectra and photometry, constructed using the L-GALAXIES semi-analytic model. We compare the inferred galaxy properties to the true galaxy properties of the simulation using a hierarchical Bayesian framework to quantify accuracy and precision. Overall, we accurately infer the true M_*, {rm SFR}, Z_{rm MW}, and t_{rm age, MW} of the simulated galaxies. However, the priors on galaxy properties induced by the SED model have a significant impact on the posteriors. They impose a {rm SFR}{>}10^{-1} M_odot/{rm yr} lower bound on {rm SFR}, a {sim}0.3 dex bias on log Z_{rm MW} for galaxies with low spectral signal-to-noise, and t_{rm age, MW} < 8,{rm Gyr} upper bound on stellar age. This work also demonstrates that a joint analysis of spectra and photometry significantly improves the constraints on galaxy properties over photometry alone and is necessary to mitigate the impact of the priors. With the methodology presented and validated in this work, PROVABGS will maximize information extracted from DESI observations and provide a probabilistic value-added galaxy catalog that will extend current galaxy studies to new regimes and unlock cutting-edge probabilistic analyses.

We study primordial gravitational waves produced during inflation in quantum gravity at a Lifshitz point proposed by Ho{rmr}ava. Assuming power-counting renormalizability, foliation preserving diffeomorphism invariance, and the condition of detailed balance, we show that primordial gravitational waves are circularly polarized due to parity violation. The chirality of primordial gravitational waves is a quite robust prediction of quantum gravity at a Lifshitz point which can be tested through observations of cosmic microwave background radiation and stochastic gravitational waves.