Daily Papers

In 2018, clinics and hospitals were hit with numerous attacks leading to significant data breaches and interruptions in medical services. An attacker with access to medical records can do much more than hold the data for ransom or sell it on the black market. In this paper, we show how an attacker can use deep-learning to add or remove evidence of medical conditions from volumetric (3D) medical scans. An attacker may perform this act in order to stop a political candidate, sabotage research, commit insurance fraud, perform an act of terrorism, or even commit murder. We implement the attack using a 3D conditional GAN and show how the framework (CT-GAN) can be automated. Although the body is complex and 3D medical scans are very large, CT-GAN achieves realistic results which can be executed in milliseconds. To evaluate the attack, we focused on injecting and removing lung cancer from CT scans. We show how three expert radiologists and a state-of-the-art deep learning AI are highly susceptible to the attack. We also explore the attack surface of a modern radiology network and demonstrate one attack vector: we intercepted and manipulated CT scans in an active hospital network with a covert penetration test. Demo video: https://youtu.be/_mkRAArj-x0 Source code: https://github.com/ymirsky/CT-GAN

The progress in generative models, particularly Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), opened new possibilities for image generation but raised concerns about potential malicious uses, especially in sensitive areas like medical imaging. This study introduces MITS-GAN, a novel approach to prevent tampering in medical images, with a specific focus on CT scans. The approach disrupts the output of the attacker's CT-GAN architecture by introducing finely tuned perturbations that are imperceptible to the human eye. Specifically, the proposed approach involves the introduction of appropriate Gaussian noise to the input as a protective measure against various attacks. Our method aims to enhance tamper resistance, comparing favorably to existing techniques. Experimental results on a CT scan demonstrate MITS-GAN's superior performance, emphasizing its ability to generate tamper-resistant images with negligible artifacts. As image tampering in medical domains poses life-threatening risks, our proactive approach contributes to the responsible and ethical use of generative models. This work provides a foundation for future research in countering cyber threats in medical imaging. Models and codes are publicly available on https://iplab.dmi.unict.it/MITS-GAN-2024/.

Camera-controllable video generation aims to synthesize videos with flexible and physically plausible camera movements. However, existing methods either provide imprecise camera control from text prompts or rely on labor-intensive manual camera trajectory parameters, limiting their use in automated scenarios. To address these issues, we propose a novel Vision-Language-Camera model, termed CT-1 (Camera Transformer 1), a specialized model designed to transfer spatial reasoning knowledge to video generation by accurately estimating camera trajectories. Built upon vision-language modules and a Diffusion Transformer model, CT-1 employs a Wavelet-based Regularization Loss in the frequency domain to effectively learn complex camera trajectory distributions. These trajectories are integrated into a video diffusion model to enable spatially aware camera control that aligns with user intentions. To facilitate the training of CT-1, we design a dedicated data curation pipeline and construct CT-200K, a large-scale dataset containing over 47M frames. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework successfully bridges the gap between spatial reasoning and video synthesis, yielding faithful and high-quality camera-controllable videos and improving camera control accuracy by 25.7% over prior methods.

The segmentation of pelvic fracture fragments in CT and X-ray images is crucial for trauma diagnosis, surgical planning, and intraoperative guidance. However, accurately and efficiently delineating the bone fragments remains a significant challenge due to complex anatomy and imaging limitations. The PENGWIN challenge, organized as a MICCAI 2024 satellite event, aimed to advance automated fracture segmentation by benchmarking state-of-the-art algorithms on these complex tasks. A diverse dataset of 150 CT scans was collected from multiple clinical centers, and a large set of simulated X-ray images was generated using the DeepDRR method. Final submissions from 16 teams worldwide were evaluated under a rigorous multi-metric testing scheme. The top-performing CT algorithm achieved an average fragment-wise intersection over union (IoU) of 0.930, demonstrating satisfactory accuracy. However, in the X-ray task, the best algorithm achieved an IoU of 0.774, which is promising but not yet sufficient for intra-operative decision-making, reflecting the inherent challenges of fragment overlap in projection imaging. Beyond the quantitative evaluation, the challenge revealed methodological diversity in algorithm design. Variations in instance representation, such as primary-secondary classification versus boundary-core separation, led to differing segmentation strategies. Despite promising results, the challenge also exposed inherent uncertainties in fragment definition, particularly in cases of incomplete fractures. These findings suggest that interactive segmentation approaches, integrating human decision-making with task-relevant information, may be essential for improving model reliability and clinical applicability.

Osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (VCFs) are prevalent in the elderly population, typically assessed on computed tomography (CT) scans by evaluating vertebral height loss. This assessment helps determine the fracture's impact on spinal stability and the need for surgical intervention. However, clinical data indicate that many VCFs exhibit irregular compression, complicating accurate diagnosis. While deep learning methods have shown promise in aiding VCFs screening, they often lack interpretability and sufficient sensitivity, limiting their clinical applicability. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel vertebra synthesis-height loss quantification-VCFs grading framework. Our proposed model, HealthiVert-GAN, utilizes a coarse-to-fine synthesis network designed to generate pseudo-healthy vertebral images that simulate the pre-fracture state of fractured vertebrae. This model integrates three auxiliary modules that leverage the morphology and height information of adjacent healthy vertebrae to ensure anatomical consistency. Additionally, we introduce the Relative Height Loss of Vertebrae (RHLV) as a quantification metric, which divides each vertebra into three sections to measure height loss between pre-fracture and post-fracture states, followed by fracture severity classification using a Support Vector Machine (SVM). Our approach achieves state-of-the-art classification performance on both the Verse2019 dataset and our private dataset, and it provides cross-sectional distribution maps of vertebral height loss. This practical tool enhances diagnostic sensitivity in clinical settings and assisting in surgical decision-making. Our code is available: https://github.com/zhibaishouheilab/HealthiVert-GAN.

X-ray images play a vital role in the intraoperative processes due to their high resolution and fast imaging speed and greatly promote the subsequent segmentation, registration and reconstruction. However, over-dosed X-rays superimpose potential risks to human health to some extent. Data-driven algorithms from volume scans to X-ray images are restricted by the scarcity of paired X-ray and volume data. Existing methods are mainly realized by modelling the whole X-ray imaging procedure. In this study, we propose a learning-based approach termed CT2X-GAN to synthesize the X-ray images in an end-to-end manner using the content and style disentanglement from three different image domains. Our method decouples the anatomical structure information from CT scans and style information from unpaired real X-ray images/ digital reconstructed radiography (DRR) images via a series of decoupling encoders. Additionally, we introduce a novel consistency regularization term to improve the stylistic resemblance between synthesized X-ray images and real X-ray images. Meanwhile, we also impose a supervised process by computing the similarity of computed real DRR and synthesized DRR images. We further develop a pose attention module to fully strengthen the comprehensive information in the decoupled content code from CT scans, facilitating high-quality multi-view image synthesis in the lower 2D space. Extensive experiments were conducted on the publicly available CTSpine1K dataset and achieved 97.8350, 0.0842 and 3.0938 in terms of FID, KID and defined user-scored X-ray similarity, respectively. In comparison with 3D-aware methods (pi-GAN, EG3D), CT2X-GAN is superior in improving the synthesis quality and realistic to the real X-ray images.

This paper presents a proof-of-concept approach for learned synergistic reconstruction of medical images using multi-branch generative models. Leveraging variational autoencoders (VAEs) and generative adversarial networks (GANs), our models learn from pairs of images simultaneously, enabling effective denoising and reconstruction. Synergistic image reconstruction is achieved by incorporating the trained models in a regularizer that evaluates the distance between the images and the model, in a similar fashion to multichannel dictionary learning (DiL). We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on both Modified National Institute of Standards and Technology (MNIST) and positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) datasets, showcasing improved image quality and information sharing between modalities. Despite challenges such as patch decomposition and model limitations, our results underscore the potential of generative models for enhancing medical imaging reconstruction.

This paper introduces an innovative methodology for producing high-quality 3D lung CT images guided by textual information. While diffusion-based generative models are increasingly used in medical imaging, current state-of-the-art approaches are limited to low-resolution outputs and underutilize radiology reports' abundant information. The radiology reports can enhance the generation process by providing additional guidance and offering fine-grained control over the synthesis of images. Nevertheless, expanding text-guided generation to high-resolution 3D images poses significant memory and anatomical detail-preserving challenges. Addressing the memory issue, we introduce a hierarchical scheme that uses a modified UNet architecture. We start by synthesizing low-resolution images conditioned on the text, serving as a foundation for subsequent generators for complete volumetric data. To ensure the anatomical plausibility of the generated samples, we provide further guidance by generating vascular, airway, and lobular segmentation masks in conjunction with the CT images. The model demonstrates the capability to use textual input and segmentation tasks to generate synthesized images. The results of comparative assessments indicate that our approach exhibits superior performance compared to the most advanced models based on GAN and diffusion techniques, especially in accurately retaining crucial anatomical features such as fissure lines, airways, and vascular structures. This innovation introduces novel possibilities. This study focuses on two main objectives: (1) the development of a method for creating images based on textual prompts and anatomical components, and (2) the capability to generate new images conditioning on anatomical elements. The advancements in image generation can be applied to enhance numerous downstream tasks.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in a pandemic crippling the a breadth of services critical to daily life. Segmentation of lung infections in computerized tomography (CT) slices could be be used to improve diagnosis and understanding of COVID-19 in patients. Deep learning systems lack interpretability because of their black box nature. Inspired by human communication of complex ideas through language, we propose a symbolic framework based on emergent languages for the segmentation of COVID-19 infections in CT scans of lungs. We model the cooperation between two artificial agents - a Sender and a Receiver. These agents synergistically cooperate using emergent symbolic language to solve the task of semantic segmentation. Our game theoretic approach is to model the cooperation between agents unlike Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). The Sender retrieves information from one of the higher layers of the deep network and generates a symbolic sentence sampled from a categorical distribution of vocabularies. The Receiver ingests the stream of symbols and cogenerates the segmentation mask. A private emergent language is developed that forms the communication channel used to describe the task of segmentation of COVID infections. We augment existing state of the art semantic segmentation architectures with our symbolic generator to form symbolic segmentation models. Our symbolic segmentation framework achieves state of the art performance for segmentation of lung infections caused by COVID-19. Our results show direct interpretation of symbolic sentences to discriminate between normal and infected regions, infection morphology and image characteristics. We show state of the art results for segmentation of COVID-19 lung infections in CT.

Existing domain-specific Large Language Models (LLMs) are typically developed by fine-tuning general-purposed LLMs with large-scale domain-specific corpora. However, training on large-scale corpora often fails to effectively organize domain knowledge of LLMs, leading to fragmented understanding. Inspired by how humans connect concepts and organize knowledge through mind maps, we aim to emulate this approach by using ontology with hierarchical conceptual knowledge to reorganize LLM's domain knowledge. From this perspective, we propose an ontology-driven self-training framework called OntoTune, which aims to align LLMs with ontology through in-context learning, enabling the generation of responses guided by the ontology. We leverage in-context learning to identify whether the LLM has acquired the specific concept's ontology knowledge, and select the entries not yet mastered by LLM as the training set to further align the LLM with ontology. Compared to existing domain LLMs based on newly collected large-scale domain-specific corpora, our OntoTune, which relies on the existing, long-term developed ontology and LLM itself, significantly reduces data maintenance costs and offers improved generalization ability. We conduct our study in the medical domain to evaluate the effectiveness of OntoTune, utilizing a standardized medical ontology, SNOMED CT as our ontology source. Experimental results demonstrate that OntoTune achieves state-of-the-art performance in both in-ontology task hypernym discovery and out-of-ontology task medical domain QA. Moreover, compared to the latest direct ontology injection method TaxoLLaMA, our OntoTune better preserves original knowledge of LLM. The code and data are available at https://github.com/zjukg/OntoTune.

Intracerebral Hemorrhage (ICH) is the deadliest subtype of stroke, necessitating timely and accurate prognostic evaluation to reduce mortality and disability. However, the multi-factorial nature and complexity of ICH make methods based solely on computed tomography (CT) image features inadequate. Despite the capacity of cross-modal networks to fuse additional information, the effective combination of different modal features remains a significant challenge. In this study, we propose a joint-attention fusion-based 3D cross-modal network termed ICHPro that simulates the ICH prognosis interpretation process utilized by neurosurgeons. ICHPro includes a joint-attention fusion module to fuse features from CT images with demographic and clinical textual data. To enhance the representation of cross-modal features, we introduce a joint loss function. ICHPro facilitates the extraction of richer cross-modal features, thereby improving classification performance. Upon testing our method using a five-fold cross-validation, we achieved an accuracy of 89.11%, an F1 score of 0.8767, and an AUC value of 0.9429. These results outperform those obtained from other advanced methods based on the test dataset, thereby demonstrating the superior efficacy of ICHPro. The code is available at our Github: https://github.com/YU-deep/ICH.

Diagnosing lung cancer typically involves physicians identifying lung nodules in Computed tomography (CT) scans and generating diagnostic reports based on their morphological features and medical expertise. Although advancements have been made in using multimodal large language models for analyzing lung CT scans, challenges remain in accurately describing nodule morphology and incorporating medical expertise. These limitations affect the reliability and effectiveness of these models in clinical settings. Collaborative multi-agent systems offer a promising strategy for achieving a balance between generality and precision in medical applications, yet their potential in pathology has not been thoroughly explored. To bridge these gaps, we introduce LungNoduleAgent, an innovative collaborative multi-agent system specifically designed for analyzing lung CT scans. LungNoduleAgent streamlines the diagnostic process into sequential components, improving precision in describing nodules and grading malignancy through three primary modules. The first module, the Nodule Spotter, coordinates clinical detection models to accurately identify nodules. The second module, the Radiologist, integrates localized image description techniques to produce comprehensive CT reports. Finally, the Doctor Agent System performs malignancy reasoning by using images and CT reports, supported by a pathology knowledge base and a multi-agent system framework. Extensive testing on two private datasets and the public LIDC-IDRI dataset indicates that LungNoduleAgent surpasses mainstream vision-language models, agent systems, and advanced expert models. These results highlight the importance of region-level semantic alignment and multi-agent collaboration in diagnosing nodules. LungNoduleAgent stands out as a promising foundational tool for supporting clinical analyses of lung nodules.

In this work, we report the set-up and results of the Liver Tumor Segmentation Benchmark (LiTS), which was organized in conjunction with the IEEE International Symposium on Biomedical Imaging (ISBI) 2017 and the International Conferences on Medical Image Computing and Computer-Assisted Intervention (MICCAI) 2017 and 2018. The image dataset is diverse and contains primary and secondary tumors with varied sizes and appearances with various lesion-to-background levels (hyper-/hypo-dense), created in collaboration with seven hospitals and research institutions. Seventy-five submitted liver and liver tumor segmentation algorithms were trained on a set of 131 computed tomography (CT) volumes and were tested on 70 unseen test images acquired from different patients. We found that not a single algorithm performed best for both liver and liver tumors in the three events. The best liver segmentation algorithm achieved a Dice score of 0.963, whereas, for tumor segmentation, the best algorithms achieved Dices scores of 0.674 (ISBI 2017), 0.702 (MICCAI 2017), and 0.739 (MICCAI 2018). Retrospectively, we performed additional analysis on liver tumor detection and revealed that not all top-performing segmentation algorithms worked well for tumor detection. The best liver tumor detection method achieved a lesion-wise recall of 0.458 (ISBI 2017), 0.515 (MICCAI 2017), and 0.554 (MICCAI 2018), indicating the need for further research. LiTS remains an active benchmark and resource for research, e.g., contributing the liver-related segmentation tasks in http://medicaldecathlon.com/. In addition, both data and online evaluation are accessible via www.lits-challenge.com.

Computed tomography (CT) serves as an effective tool for lung cancer screening, diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis, providing a rich source of features to quantify temporal and spatial tumor changes. Nonetheless, the diversity of CT scanners and customized acquisition protocols can introduce significant inconsistencies in texture features, even when assessing the same patient. This variability poses a fundamental challenge for subsequent research that relies on consistent image features. Existing CT image standardization models predominantly utilize GAN-based supervised or semi-supervised learning, but their performance remains limited. We present DiffusionCT, an innovative score-based DDPM model that operates in the latent space to transform disparate non-standard distributions into a standardized form. The architecture comprises a U-Net-based encoder-decoder, augmented by a DDPM model integrated at the bottleneck position. First, the encoder-decoder is trained independently, without embedding DDPM, to capture the latent representation of the input data. Second, the latent DDPM model is trained while keeping the encoder-decoder parameters fixed. Finally, the decoder uses the transformed latent representation to generate a standardized CT image, providing a more consistent basis for downstream analysis. Empirical tests on patient CT images indicate notable improvements in image standardization using DiffusionCT. Additionally, the model significantly reduces image noise in SPAD images, further validating the effectiveness of DiffusionCT for advanced imaging tasks.

Imputation of missing images via source-to-target modality translation can improve diversity in medical imaging protocols. A pervasive approach for synthesizing target images involves one-shot mapping through generative adversarial networks (GAN). Yet, GAN models that implicitly characterize the image distribution can suffer from limited sample fidelity. Here, we propose a novel method based on adversarial diffusion modeling, SynDiff, for improved performance in medical image translation. To capture a direct correlate of the image distribution, SynDiff leverages a conditional diffusion process that progressively maps noise and source images onto the target image. For fast and accurate image sampling during inference, large diffusion steps are taken with adversarial projections in the reverse diffusion direction. To enable training on unpaired datasets, a cycle-consistent architecture is devised with coupled diffusive and non-diffusive modules that bilaterally translate between two modalities. Extensive assessments are reported on the utility of SynDiff against competing GAN and diffusion models in multi-contrast MRI and MRI-CT translation. Our demonstrations indicate that SynDiff offers quantitatively and qualitatively superior performance against competing baselines.

This paper presents a comprehensive systematic review of generative models (GANs, VAEs, DMs, and LLMs) used to synthesize various medical data types, including imaging (dermoscopic, mammographic, ultrasound, CT, MRI, and X-ray), text, time-series, and tabular data (EHR). Unlike previous narrowly focused reviews, our study encompasses a broad array of medical data modalities and explores various generative models. Our search strategy queries databases such as Scopus, PubMed, and ArXiv, focusing on recent works from January 2021 to November 2023, excluding reviews and perspectives. This period emphasizes recent advancements beyond GANs, which have been extensively covered previously. The survey reveals insights from three key aspects: (1) Synthesis applications and purpose of synthesis, (2) generation techniques, and (3) evaluation methods. It highlights clinically valid synthesis applications, demonstrating the potential of synthetic data to tackle diverse clinical requirements. While conditional models incorporating class labels, segmentation masks and image translations are prevalent, there is a gap in utilizing prior clinical knowledge and patient-specific context, suggesting a need for more personalized synthesis approaches and emphasizing the importance of tailoring generative approaches to the unique characteristics of medical data. Additionally, there is a significant gap in using synthetic data beyond augmentation, such as for validation and evaluation of downstream medical AI models. The survey uncovers that the lack of standardized evaluation methodologies tailored to medical images is a barrier to clinical application, underscoring the need for in-depth evaluation approaches, benchmarking, and comparative studies to promote openness and collaboration.

We introduce behavioral fidelity -- a third evaluation dimension for synthetic tabular data that measures whether generated data preserves the temporal, sequential, and structural behavioral patterns that distinguish real-world entity activity. Existing frameworks evaluate statistical fidelity (marginal distributions and correlations) and downstream utility (classifier AUROC on synthetic-trained models), but neither tests for the behavioral signals that operational detection and analysis systems actually rely on. We formalize a taxonomy of four behavioral fraud patterns (P1-P4) covering inter-event timing, burst structure, multi-account graph motifs, and velocity-rule trigger rates; define a degradation ratio metric calibrated to a real-data noise floor (1.0 = matches real variability, k = k-times worse); and prove that row-independent generators -- the dominant paradigm -- are structurally incapable of reproducing P3 graph motifs (Proposition 1) and produce non-positive within-entity IET autocorrelation (Proposition 2), making the positive burst fingerprint of fraud sequences unachievable regardless of architecture or training data size. We benchmark CTGAN, TVAE, GaussianCopula, and TabularARGN on IEEE-CIS Fraud Detection and the Amazon Fraud Dataset. All four fail severely: on IEEE-CIS composite degradation ratios range from 24.4x (TVAE) to 39.0x (GaussianCopula); on Amazon FDB, row-independent generators score 81.6-99.7x, while TabularARGN achieves 17.2x. We document generator-specific failure modes and their resolutions. The P1-P4 framework extends to any domain with entity-level sequential tabular data, including healthcare and network security. We release our evaluation framework as open source.

As machine learning (ML) systems increasingly impact critical sectors such as hiring, financial risk assessments, and criminal justice, the imperative to ensure fairness has intensified due to potential negative implications. While much ML fairness research has focused on enhancing training data and processes, addressing the outputs of already deployed systems has received less attention. This paper introduces 'BiasGuard', a novel approach designed to act as a fairness guardrail in production ML systems. BiasGuard leverages Test-Time Augmentation (TTA) powered by Conditional Generative Adversarial Network (CTGAN), a cutting-edge generative AI model, to synthesize data samples conditioned on inverted protected attribute values, thereby promoting equitable outcomes across diverse groups. This method aims to provide equal opportunities for both privileged and unprivileged groups while significantly enhancing the fairness metrics of deployed systems without the need for retraining. Our comprehensive experimental analysis across diverse datasets reveals that BiasGuard enhances fairness by 31% while only reducing accuracy by 0.09% compared to non-mitigated benchmarks. Additionally, BiasGuard outperforms existing post-processing methods in improving fairness, positioning it as an effective tool to safeguard against biases when retraining the model is impractical.

Satellite imagery analysis plays a vital role in remote sensing, but the information loss caused by cloud cover seriously hinders its application. This study presents a high-performance cloud removal architecture called Progressive Multi-scale Attention Autoencoder (PMAA), which simultaneously leverages global and local information. It mainly consists of a cloud detection backbone and a cloud removal module. The cloud detection backbone uses cloud masks to reinforce cloudy areas to prompt the cloud removal module. The cloud removal module mainly comprises a novel Multi-scale Attention Module (MAM) and a Local Interaction Module (LIM). PMAA establishes the long-range dependency of multi-scale features using MAM and modulates the reconstruction of the fine-grained details using LIM, allowing for the simultaneous representation of fine- and coarse-grained features at the same level. With the help of diverse and multi-scale feature representation, PMAA outperforms the previous state-of-the-art model CTGAN consistently on the Sen2_MTC_Old and Sen2_MTC_New datasets. Furthermore, PMAA has a considerable efficiency advantage, with only 0.5% and 14.6% of the parameters and computational complexity of CTGAN, respectively. These extensive results highlight the potential of PMAA as a lightweight cloud removal network suitable for deployment on edge devices. We will release the code and trained models to facilitate the study in this direction.

The widespread adoption of dynamic Time-of-Use (dToU) electricity tariffs requires accurately identifying households that would benefit from such pricing structures. However, the use of real consumption data poses serious privacy concerns, motivating the adoption of synthetic alternatives. In this study, we conduct a comparative evaluation of four synthetic data generation methods, Wasserstein-GP Generative Adversarial Networks (WGAN), Conditional Tabular GAN (CTGAN), Diffusion Models, and Gaussian noise augmentation, under different synthetic regimes. We assess classification utility, distribution fidelity, and privacy leakage. Our results show that architectural design plays a key role: diffusion models achieve the highest utility (macro-F1 up to 88.2%), while CTGAN provide the strongest resistance to reconstruction attacks. These findings highlight the potential of structured generative models for developing privacy-preserving, data-driven energy systems.

Flight diversions are rare but high-impact events in aviation, making their reliable prediction vital for both safety and operational efficiency. However, their scarcity in historical records impedes the training of machine learning models utilised to predict them. This study addresses this scarcity gap by investigating how generative models can augment historical flight data with synthetic diversion records to enhance model training and improve predictive accuracy. We propose a multi-objective optimisation framework coupled with automated hyperparameter search to identify optimal configurations for three deep generative models: Tabular Variational Autoencoder (TVAE), Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Network (CTGAN), and CopulaGAN, with the Gaussian Copula (GC) model serving as a statistical baseline. The quality of the synthetic data was examined through a six-stage evaluation framework encompassing realism, diversity, operational validity, statistical similarity, fidelity, and predictive utility. Results show that the optimised models significantly outperform their non-optimised counterparts, and that synthetic augmentation substantially improves diversion prediction compared to models trained solely on real data. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of hyperparameter-optimised generative models for advancing predictive modelling of rare events in air transportation.