Daily Papers

Understanding and reasoning about the physical world is the foundation of intelligent behavior, yet state-of-the-art vision-language models (VLMs) still fail at causal physical reasoning, often producing plausible but incorrect answers. To address this gap, we introduce CausalPhys, a benchmark of over 3,000 carefully curated video- and image-based questions spanning four domains: Perception, Anticipation, Intervention, and Goal Orientation. Each question is paired with an expert-annotated causal graph capturing object-attribute-event dependencies, enabling interpretable and fine-grained evaluation of causal understanding. Building on this, we formulate a causal-graph-grounded metric that quantitatively measures how well a model's chain-of-thought reasoning aligns with the correct causal relations, moving beyond answer-only accuracy and enabling systematic diagnosis of VLMs' causal reasoning failures. Using this metric, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of leading VLMs, revealing systematic gaps in capturing causal dependencies and underscoring the need for causality-aware learning. To address these limitations, we further propose Causal Rationale-informed Fine-Tuning (CRFT), which explicitly aligns VLM reasoning with causal structures. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CRFT substantially enhances both reasoning accuracy and interpretability across multiple model backbones. By unifying dataset curation, causal evaluation, and causality-informed learning, CausalPhys establishes a strong foundation for advancing modern VLMs toward causally grounded physical reasoning.

Despite the impressive performance of vision-language models (VLMs) on downstream tasks, their ability to understand and reason about causal relationships in visual inputs remains unclear. Robust causal reasoning is fundamental to solving complex high-level reasoning tasks, yet existing benchmarks often include a mixture of reasoning questions, and VLMs can frequently exploit object recognition and activity identification as shortcuts to arrive at the correct answers, making it challenging to truly assess their causal reasoning abilities. To bridge this gap, we introduce VQA-Causal and VCR-Causal, two new benchmarks specifically designed to isolate and rigorously evaluate VLMs' causal reasoning abilities. Our findings reveal that while VLMs excel in object and activity recognition, they perform poorly on causal reasoning tasks, often only marginally surpassing random guessing. Further analysis suggests that this limitation stems from a severe lack of causal expressions in widely used training datasets, where causal relationships are rarely explicitly conveyed. We additionally explore fine-tuning strategies with hard negative cases, showing that targeted fine-tuning can improve model's causal reasoning while maintaining generalization and downstream performance. Our study highlights a key gap in current VLMs and lays the groundwork for future work on causal understanding.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit logically inconsistent hallucinations that appear coherent yet violate reasoning principles, with recent research suggesting an inverse relationship between causal reasoning capabilities and such hallucinations. However, existing reasoning approaches in LLMs, such as Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and its graph-based variants, operate at the linguistic token level rather than modeling the underlying causal relationships between variables, lacking the ability to represent conditional independencies or satisfy causal identification assumptions. To bridge this gap, we introduce causal-DAG construction and reasoning (CDCR-SFT), a supervised fine-tuning framework that trains LLMs to explicitly construct variable-level directed acyclic graph (DAG) and then perform reasoning over it. Moreover, we present a dataset comprising 25,368 samples (CausalDR), where each sample includes an input question, explicit causal DAG, graph-based reasoning trace, and validated answer. Experiments on four LLMs across eight tasks show that CDCR-SFT improves the causal reasoning capability with the state-of-the-art 95.33% accuracy on CLADDER (surpassing human performance of 94.8% for the first time) and reduces the hallucination on HaluEval with 10% improvements. It demonstrates that explicit causal structure modeling in LLMs can effectively mitigate logical inconsistencies in LLM outputs. Code is available at https://github.com/MrLYG/CDCR-SFT.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success across various domains. However, a fundamental question remains: Can LLMs effectively utilize causal knowledge for prediction and generation? Through empirical studies, we find that LLMs trained directly on large-scale data often capture spurious correlations rather than true causal relationships, leading to suboptimal performance, especially in out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. To address this challenge, we propose Causal Attention Tuning (CAT), a novel approach that injects fine-grained causal knowledge into the attention mechanism. We propose an automated pipeline that leverages human priors to automatically generate token-level causal signals and introduce the Re-Attention mechanism to guide training, helping the model focus on causal structures while mitigating noise and biases in attention scores. Experimental results on our proposed Spurious Token Game (STG) benchmark and multiple downstream tasks demonstrate that our approach effectively leverages causal knowledge for prediction and remains robust in OOD scenarios. Implementation details can be found at https://github.com/Kairong-Han/CAT.

Despite the increasing effectiveness of language models, their reasoning capabilities remain underdeveloped. In particular, causal reasoning through counterfactual question answering is lacking. This work aims to bridge this gap. We first derive novel metrics that balance accuracy in factual and counterfactual questions, capturing a more complete view of the reasoning abilities of language models than traditional factual-only based metrics. Second, we propose several fine-tuning approaches that aim to elicit better reasoning mechanisms, in the sense of the proposed metrics. Finally, we evaluate the performance of the fine-tuned language models in a variety of realistic scenarios. In particular, we investigate to what extent our fine-tuning approaches systemically achieve better generalization with respect to the base models in several problems that require, among others, inductive and deductive reasoning capabilities.

A major issue with using deep learning models in sensitive applications is that they provide no explanation for their output. To address this problem, unsupervised selective rationalization produces rationales alongside predictions by chaining two jointly-trained components, a rationale generator and a predictor. Although this architecture guarantees that the prediction relies solely on the rationale, it does not ensure that the rationale contains a plausible explanation for the prediction. We introduce a novel training technique that effectively limits generation of implausible rationales by injecting noise between the generator and the predictor. Furthermore, we propose a new benchmark for evaluating unsupervised selective rationalization models using movie reviews from existing datasets. We achieve sizeable improvements in rationale plausibility and task accuracy over the state-of-the-art across a variety of tasks, including our new benchmark, while maintaining or improving model faithfulness.

Visual reasoning abilities play a crucial role in understanding complex multimodal data, advancing both domain-specific applications and artificial general intelligence (AGI). Existing methods improve VLM reasoning via Chain-of-Thought (CoT) supervised fine-tuning, using meticulously annotated training data to enhance visual reasoning capabilities. However, this training paradigm may lead to overfitting and cognitive rigidity, restricting the model's ability to transfer visual reasoning skills across domains and limiting its real-world applicability. To address these limitations, we propose Reason-RFT, a novel reinforcement fine-tuning framework that significantly enhances generalization capabilities in visual reasoning tasks. Reason-RFT introduces a two-phase training framework for visual reasoning: (1) Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) with curated Chain-of-Thought (CoT) data activates the reasoning potential of Vision-Language Models (VLMs), followed by (2) Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO)-based reinforcement learning that generates multiple reasoning-response pairs, significantly enhancing generalization in visual reasoning tasks. To evaluate Reason-RFT's visual reasoning capabilities, we reconstructed a comprehensive dataset spanning visual counting, structure perception, and spatial transformation. Experimental results demonstrate Reasoning-RFT's three key advantages: (1) Performance Enhancement: achieving state-of-the-art results across multiple tasks, outperforming most mainstream open-source and proprietary models; (2) Generalization Superiority: consistently maintaining robust performance across diverse tasks and domains, outperforming alternative training paradigms; (3) Data Efficiency: excelling in few-shot learning scenarios while surpassing full-dataset SFT baselines. Project website: https://tanhuajie.github.io/ReasonRFT

Temporal reasoning involves understanding how systems evolve over time through input-driven state transitions. A key aspect is temporal causal reasoning, causally reasoning about what prior inputs were necessary in causing an observed outcome. While large language models (LLMs) perform well at forward simulation, predicting outputs from inputs, they struggle to identify the minimal causal inputs of outcomes. To study this distinction, we define two tasks: trace simulation (SIM), which requires models to simulate system execution, and minimal causal attribution (MIN), which identifies the minimal set of inputs necessary for a given outcome. We introduce TempoBench, the first formally verified benchmark for temporal causal reasoning, built from synthesized Mealy machines with controllable complexity and provably correct causal labels. Across frontier models, we observe that despite achieving up to 96\% accuracy on the SIM task, performance on the causal attribution MIN task drops below 25\%; models fail to reason about causal necessity. Over 94\% of causal errors involve overspecification, where models perform retrieval and list all possible inputs rather than reasoning about the minimal causal subset. Fine-tuning on TempoBench training corpus improves causal reasoning and generalizes better than math, code, or instruction training, with gains across standard reasoning benchmarks.

Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) is the standard approach for adapting large language models (LLMs) to downstream tasks. However, we observe a persistent failure mode: even after convergence, models often fail to correctly reproduce a subset of their own supervised training data. We refer to this behavior as the Incomplete Learning Phenomenon(ILP). This paper presents the first systematic study of ILP in LLM fine-tuning. We formalize ILP as post-training failure to internalize supervised instances and demonstrate its prevalence across multiple model families, domains, and datasets. Through controlled analyses, we identify five recurrent sources of incomplete learning: (1) missing prerequisite knowledge in the pre-trained model, (2) conflicts between SFT supervision and pre-training knowledge, (3) internal inconsistencies within SFT data, (4) left-side forgetting during sequential fine-tuning, and (5) insufficient optimization for rare or complex patterns. We introduce a diagnostic-first framework that maps unlearned samples to these causes using observable training and inference signals, and study several targeted mitigation strategies as causal interventions. Experiments on Qwen, LLaMA, and OLMo2 show that incomplete learning is widespread and heterogeneous, and that improvements in aggregate metrics can mask persistent unlearned subsets. The findings highlight the need for fine-grained diagnosis of what supervised fine-tuning fails to learn, and why.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

Causal reasoning in natural language requires identifying relevant variables, understanding their interactions, and reasoning about effects and interventions, often under noisy or ambiguous conditions. While large language models (LLMs) exhibit strong general reasoning abilities, they struggle to disentangle correlation from causation, particularly when observations are partially incorrect or irrelevant information is present. In this work, we introduce NoisyCausal, a new benchmark designed to evaluate causal reasoning under structured noise. Each instance is generated from a ground-truth causal graph and contextualized with a natural language scenario by injecting controllable forms of noise, such as irrelevant distractors, value perturbations, confounding, and partial observability. Moreover, we propose a modular reasoning framework that combines LLMs with explicit causal structure to address these challenges. Our method prompts the LLM to extract variables, construct a causal graph from context, and then reformulates the reasoning task as a structured prompt grounded in this graph. Rather than relying on statistical patterns alone, the LLM is guided by symbolic structure, enabling more interpretable and robust inference. Experimental results show that our method significantly outperforms standard prompting and reasoning baselines on NoisyCausal. Furthermore, it generalizes well to external benchmarks such as Cladder without task-specific tuning. Our findings highlight the importance of combining causal abstractions with language-driven reasoning to achieve faithful and robust causal understanding in LLMs.

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we propose a learning paradigm that directly establishes causation between events in the course of time. We present two key lemmas to compute causal contributions and frame them as reinforcement learning problems. Our approach offers formal and computational tools for uncovering and quantifying causal relationships in diffusion processes, subsuming various important settings such as discrete-time Markov decision processes. Finally, in fairly intricate experiments and through sheer learning, our framework reveals and quantifies causal links, which otherwise seem inexplicable.

Despite significant advancements in multimodal reasoning tasks, existing Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) are prone to producing visually ungrounded responses when interpreting associated images. In contrast, when humans embark on learning new knowledge, they often rely on a set of fundamental pre-study principles: reviewing outlines to grasp core concepts, summarizing key points to guide their focus and enhance understanding. However, such preparatory actions are notably absent in the current instruction tuning processes. This paper presents Re-Critic, an easily scalable rationale-augmented framework designed to incorporate fundamental rules and chain-of-thought (CoT) as a bridge to enhance reasoning abilities. Specifically, Re-Critic develops a visual rationale synthesizer that scalably augments raw instructions with rationale explanation. To probe more contextually grounded responses, Re-Critic employs an in-context self-critic mechanism to select response pairs for preference tuning. Experiments demonstrate that models fine-tuned with our rationale-augmented dataset yield gains that extend beyond hallucination-specific tasks to broader multimodal reasoning tasks.

Causal reasoning and compositional reasoning are two core aspirations in generative AI. Measuring the extent of these behaviors requires principled evaluation methods. We explore a unified perspective that considers both behaviors simultaneously, termed compositional causal reasoning (CCR): the ability to infer how causal measures compose and, equivalently, how causal quantities propagate through graphs. We instantiate a framework for the systematic evaluation of CCR for the average treatment effect and the probability of necessity and sufficiency. As proof of concept, we demonstrate the design of CCR tasks for language models in the LLama, Phi, and GPT families. On a math word problem, our framework revealed a range of taxonomically distinct error patterns. Additionally, CCR errors increased with the complexity of causal paths for all models except o1.

Despite the importance of causal reasoning, training LLMs to reason causally remains underexplored. Existing data efforts mostly focus on benchmarking LLMs on specific aspects of causality, making them less suitable for training generalizable causal reasoners. To address this, we propose UniCo, a data generation framework that both (1) addresses 18 causal query types across Pearl's Causal Ladder and (2) translates natively symbolic examples into code and natural language forms to simulate real-world use cases where causal terms are not explicitly specified. To ensure data quality, UniCo grounds answers with exact causal inference and filters cases with reasoning shortcuts. Upon supervised finetuning with 66.6K UniCo-generated instances, Qwen3-4B, Qwen3-8B and Olmo-3-7B-Instruct achieve an average of 22.9% improvements across all 18 in-distribution query types, and 8.1% over state-of-the-art causal data generation frameworks on 7 established causal benchmarks outside the training distribution. More importantly, in real-world medical understanding, legal decision, and tabular reasoning, UniCo-trained models consistently display more faithful reasoning traces, outperforming the base models by an average of 20.2% in faithfulness metrics. These suggest that causality-centered training not only strengthens causal reasoning, but also equips LLMs with a causal mindset in general reasoning tasks.

Large language models (LLMs) have been shown to perform better when asked to reason step-by-step before answering a question. However, it is unclear to what degree the model's final answer is faithful to the stated reasoning steps. In this paper, we perform a causal mediation analysis on twelve LLMs to examine how intermediate reasoning steps generated by the LLM influence the final outcome and find that LLMs do not reliably use their intermediate reasoning steps when generating an answer. To address this issue, we introduce FRODO, a framework to tailor small-sized LMs to generate correct reasoning steps and robustly reason over these steps. FRODO consists of an inference module that learns to generate correct reasoning steps using an implicit causal reward function and a reasoning module that learns to faithfully reason over these intermediate inferences using a counterfactual and causal preference objective. Our experiments show that FRODO significantly outperforms four competitive baselines. Furthermore, FRODO improves the robustness and generalization ability of the reasoning LM, yielding higher performance on out-of-distribution test sets. Finally, we find that FRODO's rationales are more faithful to its final answer predictions than standard supervised fine-tuning.

We develop a method for generating causal post-hoc explanations of black-box classifiers based on a learned low-dimensional representation of the data. The explanation is causal in the sense that changing learned latent factors produces a change in the classifier output statistics. To construct these explanations, we design a learning framework that leverages a generative model and information-theoretic measures of causal influence. Our objective function encourages both the generative model to faithfully represent the data distribution and the latent factors to have a large causal influence on the classifier output. Our method learns both global and local explanations, is compatible with any classifier that admits class probabilities and a gradient, and does not require labeled attributes or knowledge of causal structure. Using carefully controlled test cases, we provide intuition that illuminates the function of our objective. We then demonstrate the practical utility of our method on image recognition tasks.

Generating step-by-step "chain-of-thought" rationales improves language model performance on complex reasoning tasks like mathematics or commonsense question-answering. However, inducing language model rationale generation currently requires either constructing massive rationale datasets or sacrificing accuracy by using only few-shot inference. We propose a technique to iteratively leverage a small number of rationale examples and a large dataset without rationales, to bootstrap the ability to perform successively more complex reasoning. This technique, the "Self-Taught Reasoner" (STaR), relies on a simple loop: generate rationales to answer many questions, prompted with a few rationale examples; if the generated answers are wrong, try again to generate a rationale given the correct answer; fine-tune on all the rationales that ultimately yielded correct answers; repeat. We show that STaR significantly improves performance on multiple datasets compared to a model fine-tuned to directly predict final answers, and performs comparably to fine-tuning a 30times larger state-of-the-art language model on CommensenseQA. Thus, STaR lets a model improve itself by learning from its own generated reasoning.

We present an outcome-driven fine-tuning framework that enhances the forecasting capabilities of large language models (LLMs) without relying on human-curated reasoning samples. Our method leverages model self-play to generate pairs of diverse reasoning trajectories and probabilistic forecasts for a set of diverse questions that resolve after the models' knowledge cutoff date. We then rank pairs of these reasoning traces by their distance to the actual outcomes before fine-tuning the model via Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). On a separate test set, our approach increases prediction accuracy of Phi-4 14B and DeepSeek-R1 14B by between 7--10\% over a base model and a DPO fine-tuned control model with randomized labels, bringing them on par with forecasting capabilities of much larger frontier models like GPT-4o.

Despite strong performance of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) on multimodal tasks, predicting whether and why an image is persuasive remains challenging. We first show that prompting MLLMs to reason before prediction does not consistently help, and can even reduce persuasiveness prediction performance, suggesting that naively generated rationales are unreliable signals for this task. Yet, no established methodology exists for training MLLMs to reason about visual persuasion or evaluating whether their rationales faithfully support their decisions. To address this gap, we show empirically and theoretically that diverse teacher-generated rationales, when used for supervised fine-tuning, improve visual persuasiveness prediction. We further introduce a three-dimensional faithfulness evaluation framework covering rationale-to-decision consistency, rationale-to-image groundedness, and rationale-to-decision sensitivity. Applying this framework shows that prediction performance alone does not guarantee faithful rationales, while rationale-to-decision sensitivity is most aligned with human rationale preferences. These findings motivate faithfulness-aware training objectives and scalable rationale supervision for visual persuasiveness evaluation. Our code and dataset will be made publicly available.

Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) on chain-of-thought (CoT) data shows that a small amount of high-quality data can outperform massive datasets. Yet, what constitutes "quality" remains ill-defined. Existing reasoning methods rely on indirect heuristics such as problem difficulty or trace length, while instruction-tuning has explored a broader range of automated selection strategies, but rarely in the context of reasoning. We propose to define reasoning data quality using influence functions, which measure the causal effect of individual CoT examples on downstream accuracy, and introduce influence-based pruning, which consistently outperforms perplexity and embedding-based baselines on math reasoning within a model family.

Pre-trained vision language models still fall short of human visual cognition. In an effort to improve visual cognition and align models with human behavior, we introduce visual stimuli and human judgments on visual cognition tasks, allowing us to systematically evaluate performance across cognitive domains under a consistent environment. We fine-tune models on ground truth data for intuitive physics and causal reasoning and find that this improves model performance in the respective fine-tuning domain. Furthermore, it can improve model alignment with human behavior. However, we find that task-specific fine-tuning does not contribute to robust human-like generalization to data with other visual characteristics or to tasks in other cognitive domains.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in complex multi-step reasoning, opening new opportunities for automating optimization modeling. However, existing domain adaptation methods, originally designed for earlier instruction-tuned models, often fail to exploit the advanced reasoning patterns of modern LRMs -- In particular, we show that direct fine-tuning on traditional non-reflective datasets leads to limited gains. To fully leverage LRMs' inherent reasoning abilities, we propose CALM (Corrective Adaptation with Lightweight Modification), a framework that progressively refines LRMs within their native reasoning modes for optimization modeling tasks. In CALM, an expert intervener identifies reasoning flaws and provides concise corrective hints, which the LRM incorporates to produce improved reasoning trajectories. These interventions modify fewer than 2.6\% of generated tokens, but generate high-quality data for soft adaptation through supervised fine-tuning. The adapted model is then further improved through reinforcement learning. Building on CALM, we develop STORM (Smart Thinking Optimization Reasoning Model), a 4B-parameter LRM that achieves a new state-of-the-art average accuracy of 68.9\% across five popular optimization modeling benchmarks, matching the performance of a 671B LRM. These results demonstrate that dynamic, hint-based data synthesis both preserves and amplifies the native reasoning patterns of modern LRMs, offering a more effective and scalable path towards expert-level performance on challenging optimization modeling tasks.

Deep learning models are challenged by the distribution shift between the training data and test data. Recently, the large models pre-trained on diverse data have demonstrated unprecedented robustness to various distribution shifts. However, fine-tuning these models can lead to a trade-off between in-distribution (ID) performance and out-of-distribution (OOD) robustness. Existing methods for tackling this trade-off do not explicitly address the OOD robustness problem. In this paper, based on causal analysis of the aforementioned problems, we propose a novel fine-tuning method, which uses masked images as counterfactual samples that help improve the robustness of the fine-tuning model. Specifically, we mask either the semantics-related or semantics-unrelated patches of the images based on class activation map to break the spurious correlation, and refill the masked patches with patches from other images. The resulting counterfactual samples are used in feature-based distillation with the pre-trained model. Extensive experiments verify that regularizing the fine-tuning with the proposed masked images can achieve a better trade-off between ID and OOD performance, surpassing previous methods on the OOD performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/Coxy7/robust-finetuning.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated strong potential in generating 'believable human-like' behavior in web environments. Prior work has explored augmenting training data with LLM-synthesized rationales and applying supervised fine-tuning (SFT) to enhance reasoning ability, which in turn can improve downstream action prediction. However, the performance of such approaches remains inherently bounded by the reasoning capabilities of the model used to generate the rationales. In this paper, we introduce Shop-R1, a novel reinforcement learning (RL) framework aimed at enhancing the reasoning ability of LLMs for simulation of real human behavior in online shopping environments Specifically, Shop-R1 decomposes the human behavior simulation task into two stages: rationale generation and action prediction, each guided by distinct reward signals. For rationale generation, we leverage internal model signals (e.g., logit distributions) to guide the reasoning process in a self-supervised manner. For action prediction, we propose a hierarchical reward structure with difficulty-aware scaling to prevent reward hacking and enable fine-grained reward assignment. This design evaluates both high-level action types and the correctness of fine-grained sub-action details (attributes and values), rewarding outputs proportionally to their difficulty. Experimental results show that our method achieves a relative improvement of over 65% compared to the baseline.

Chain-of-thought reasoning, while powerful, can produce unnecessarily verbose output for simpler problems. We present a framework for difficulty-aware reasoning that teaches models to dynamically adjust reasoning depth based on problem complexity. Remarkably, we show that models can be endowed with such dynamic inference pathways without any architectural modifications; we simply post-train on data that is carefully curated to include chain-of-thought traces that are proportional in length to problem difficulty. Our analysis reveals that post-training via supervised fine-tuning (SFT) primarily captures patterns like reasoning length and format, while direct preference optimization (DPO) preserves reasoning accuracy, with their combination reducing length and maintaining or improving performance. Both quantitative metrics and qualitative assessments confirm that models can learn to "think proportionally", reasoning minimally on simple problems while maintaining depth for complex ones.

Recent advancements in recommender systems have focused on leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) to improve user preference modeling, yielding promising outcomes. However, current LLM-based approaches struggle to fully leverage user behavior sequences, resulting in suboptimal preference modeling for personalized recommendations. In this study, we propose a novel Counterfactual Fine-Tuning (CFT) method to address this issue by explicitly emphasizing the role of behavior sequences when generating recommendations. Specifically, we employ counterfactual reasoning to identify the causal effects of behavior sequences on model output and introduce a task that directly fits the ground-truth labels based on these effects, achieving the goal of explicit emphasis. Additionally, we develop a token-level weighting mechanism to adjust the emphasis strength for different item tokens, reflecting the diminishing influence of behavior sequences from earlier to later tokens during predicting an item. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CFT effectively improves behavior sequence modeling. Our codes are available at https://github.com/itsmeyjt/CFT.

Fine-tuning large language models for vertical domains remains a labor-intensive and expensive process, requiring domain experts to curate data, configure training, and iteratively diagnose model behavior. Despite growing interest in autonomous machine learning, no prior work has tackled end-to-end LLM fine-tuning with agents. Can LLM-based agents automate this complete process? We frame this as a substantially open problem: agents must navigate an open-ended search space spanning data curation from diverse data sources, processing with complex tools, building a training pipeline, and iteratively refining their approach based on evaluation outcomes in rapidly growing logs--an overall scenario far more intricate than existing benchmarks. To study this question, we introduce FT-Dojo, an interactive environment comprising 13 tasks across 5 domains. We further develop FT-Agent, an autonomous system that mirrors human experts by leveraging evaluation-driven feedback to iteratively diagnose failures and refine fine-tuning strategies. Experiments on FT-Dojo demonstrate that purpose-built fine-tuning agents significantly outperform general-purpose alternatives, with FT-Agent achieving the best performance on 10 out of 13 tasks across all five domains. Ablations show that the approach generalizes effectively to 3B models, with additional insights on data scaling trade-offs and backbone sensitivity. Case analyses reveal that agents can recover from failures through cumulative learning from historical experience, while also exposing fundamental limitations in causal reasoning--highlighting both the promise and current boundaries of autonomous LLM fine-tuning.

Rationale discovery is defined as finding a subset of the input data that maximally supports the prediction of downstream tasks. In graph machine learning context, graph rationale is defined to locate the critical subgraph in the given graph topology, which fundamentally determines the prediction results. In contrast to the rationale subgraph, the remaining subgraph is named the environment subgraph. Graph rationalization can enhance the model performance as the mapping between the graph rationale and prediction label is viewed as invariant, by assumption. To ensure the discriminative power of the extracted rationale subgraphs, a key technique named "intervention" is applied. The core idea of intervention is that given any changing environment subgraphs, the semantics from the rationale subgraph is invariant, which guarantees the correct prediction result. However, most, if not all, of the existing rationalization works on graph data develop their intervention strategies on the graph level, which is coarse-grained. In this paper, we propose well-tailored intervention strategies on graph data. Our idea is driven by the development of Transformer models, whose self-attention module provides rich interactions between input nodes. Based on the self-attention module, our proposed invariant graph Transformer (IGT) can achieve fine-grained, more specifically, node-level and virtual node-level intervention. Our comprehensive experiments involve 7 real-world datasets, and the proposed IGT shows significant performance advantages compared to 13 baseline methods.

Chain-of-thought emerges as a promising technique for eliciting reasoning capabilities from Large Language Models (LLMs). However, it does not always improve task performance or accurately represent reasoning processes, leaving unresolved questions about its usage. In this paper, we diagnose the underlying mechanism by comparing the reasoning process of LLMs with humans, using causal analysis to understand the relationships between the problem instruction, reasoning, and the answer in LLMs. Our empirical study reveals that LLMs often deviate from the ideal causal chain, resulting in spurious correlations and potential consistency errors (inconsistent reasoning and answers). We also examine various factors influencing the causal structure, finding that in-context learning with examples strengthens it, while post-training techniques like supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning on human feedback weaken it. To our surprise, the causal structure cannot be strengthened by enlarging the model size only, urging research on new techniques. We hope that this preliminary study will shed light on understanding and improving the reasoning process in LLM.

Causal reasoning is viewed as crucial for achieving human-level machine intelligence. Recent advances in language models have expanded the horizons of artificial intelligence across various domains, sparking inquiries into their potential for causal reasoning. In this work, we introduce Causal evaluation of Language Models (CaLM), which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first comprehensive benchmark for evaluating the causal reasoning capabilities of language models. First, we propose the CaLM framework, which establishes a foundational taxonomy consisting of four modules: causal target (i.e., what to evaluate), adaptation (i.e., how to obtain the results), metric (i.e., how to measure the results), and error (i.e., how to analyze the bad results). This taxonomy defines a broad evaluation design space while systematically selecting criteria and priorities. Second, we compose the CaLM dataset, comprising 126,334 data samples, to provide curated sets of causal targets, adaptations, metrics, and errors, offering extensive coverage for diverse research pursuits. Third, we conduct an extensive evaluation of 28 leading language models on a core set of 92 causal targets, 9 adaptations, 7 metrics, and 12 error types. Fourth, we perform detailed analyses of the evaluation results across various dimensions (e.g., adaptation, scale). Fifth, we present 50 high-level empirical findings across 9 dimensions (e.g., model), providing valuable guidance for future language model development. Finally, we develop a multifaceted platform, including a website, leaderboards, datasets, and toolkits, to support scalable and adaptable assessments. We envision CaLM as an ever-evolving benchmark for the community, systematically updated with new causal targets, adaptations, models, metrics, and error types to reflect ongoing research advancements. Project website is at https://opencausalab.github.io/CaLM.

Reward modelling from preference data is a crucial step in aligning large language models (LLMs) with human values, requiring robust generalisation to novel prompt-response pairs. In this work, we propose to frame this problem in a causal paradigm, providing the rich toolbox of causality to identify the persistent challenges, such as causal misidentification, preference heterogeneity, and confounding due to user-specific factors. Inheriting from the literature of causal inference, we identify key assumptions necessary for reliable generalisation and contrast them with common data collection practices. We illustrate failure modes of naive reward models and demonstrate how causally-inspired approaches can improve model robustness. Finally, we outline desiderata for future research and practices, advocating targeted interventions to address inherent limitations of observational data.

Reinforcement learning (RL)-based fine-tuning has become a crucial step in post-training language models for advanced mathematical reasoning and coding. Following the success of frontier reasoning models, recent work has demonstrated that RL fine-tuning consistently improves performance, even in smaller-scale models; however, the underlying mechanisms driving these improvements are not well-understood. Understanding the effects of RL fine-tuning requires disentangling its interaction with pretraining data composition, hyperparameters, and model scale, but such problems are exacerbated by the lack of transparency regarding the training data used in many existing models. In this work, we present a systematic end-to-end study of RL fine-tuning for mathematical reasoning by training models entirely from scratch on different mixtures of fully open datasets. We investigate the effects of various RL fine-tuning algorithms (PPO, GRPO, and Expert Iteration) across models of different scales. Our study reveals that RL algorithms consistently converge towards a dominant output distribution, amplifying patterns in the pretraining data. We also find that models of different scales trained on the same data mixture will converge to distinct output distributions, suggesting that there are scale-dependent biases in model generalization. Moreover, we find that RL post-training on simpler questions can lead to performance gains on harder ones, indicating that certain reasoning capabilities generalize across tasks. Our findings show that small-scale proxies in controlled settings can elicit interesting insights regarding the role of RL in shaping language model behavior.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit cognitive biases -- systematic tendencies of irrational decision-making, similar to those seen in humans. Prior work has found that these biases vary across models and can be amplified by instruction tuning. However, it remains unclear if these differences in biases stem from pretraining, finetuning, or even random noise due to training stochasticity. We propose a two-step causal experimental approach to disentangle these factors. First, we finetune models multiple times using different random seeds to study how training randomness affects over 30 cognitive biases. Second, we introduce cross-tuning -- swapping instruction datasets between models to isolate bias sources. This swap uses datasets that led to different bias patterns, directly testing whether biases are dataset-dependent. Our findings reveal that while training randomness introduces some variability, biases are mainly shaped by pretraining: models with the same pretrained backbone exhibit more similar bias patterns than those sharing only finetuning data. These insights suggest that understanding biases in finetuned models requires considering their pretraining origins beyond finetuning effects. This perspective can guide future efforts to develop principled strategies for evaluating and mitigating bias in LLMs.

Large language models have emerged as powerful tools for general intelligence, showcasing advanced natural language processing capabilities that find applications across diverse domains. Despite their impressive performance, recent studies have highlighted the potential for significant enhancements in LLMs' task-specific performance through fine-tuning strategies like Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF), supervised fine-tuning (SFT), and Quantized Low-Rank Adapters (Q-LoRA) method. However, previous works have shown that while fine-tuning offers significant performance gains, it also leads to challenges such as catastrophic forgetting and privacy and safety risks. To this end, there has been little to no work in understanding the impact of fine-tuning on the reasoning capabilities of LLMs. Our research investigates the effect of fine-tuning on the reasoning abilities of LLMs, addressing critical questions regarding the impact of task-specific fine-tuning on overall reasoning capabilities, the influence of fine-tuning on Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning performance, and the implications for the faithfulness of CoT reasonings. By exploring these dimensions, our study shows the impact of fine-tuning on LLM reasoning capabilities, where the faithfulness of CoT reasoning, on average across four datasets, decreases, highlighting potential shifts in internal mechanisms of the LLMs resulting from fine-tuning processes.

Post-training of large language models involves a fundamental trade-off between supervised fine-tuning (SFT), which efficiently mimics demonstrations but tends to memorize, and reinforcement learning (RL), which achieves better generalization at higher computational cost. Dynamic Fine-Tuning (DFT) recently emerged as a promising middle ground, reweighting SFT objectives with token probabilities and achieving improvements in certain reasoning domains, though it exhibits instability in other tasks. We provide a analysis of DFT through the reward-weighted regression (RWR) framework, revealing that it corresponds to a specific auxiliary distribution choice that yields provably tighter RL bounds than standard SFT. However, our analysis also uncovers a critical limitation: this construction lacks distributional anchoring, leading to progressive drift that undermines training stability. To address this, we propose Anchored Supervised Fine-Tuning (ASFT), which augments DFT's reweighting with lightweight KL regularization to preserve tightness while ensuring stability. Empirically, ASFT consistently outperforms both SFT and DFT across mathematical reasoning, medical knowledge grounding, and code generation, achieving substantial improvements with minimal computational overhead. Our RWR framework provides a systematic lens for understanding post-training methods and demonstrates that principled theoretical analysis leads to both stronger guarantees and practical gains.

Causal reasoning (CR) is a crucial aspect of intelligence, essential for problem-solving, decision-making, and understanding the world. While language models (LMs) can generate rationales for their outputs, their ability to reliably perform causal reasoning remains uncertain, often falling short in tasks requiring a deep understanding of causality. In this paper, we introduce CausalEval, a comprehensive review of research aimed at enhancing LMs for causal reasoning, coupled with an empirical evaluation of current models and methods. We categorize existing methods based on the role of LMs: either as reasoning engines or as helpers providing knowledge or data to traditional CR methods, followed by a detailed discussion of methodologies in each category. We then assess the performance of current LMs and various enhancement methods on a range of causal reasoning tasks, providing key findings and in-depth analysis. Finally, we present insights from current studies and highlight promising directions for future research. We aim for this work to serve as a comprehensive resource, fostering further advancements in causal reasoning with LMs.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback plays a crucial role in aligning language models towards human preferences, traditionally represented through comparisons between pairs or sets of responses within a given context. While many studies have enhanced algorithmic techniques to optimize learning from such data, this work shifts focus to improving preference learning through a data-centric approach. Specifically, we propose enriching existing preference datasets with machine-generated rationales that explain the reasons behind choices. We develop a simple and principled framework to augment current preference learning methods with rationale information. Our comprehensive analysis highlights how rationales enhance learning efficiency. Extensive experiments reveal that rationale-enriched preference learning offers multiple advantages: it improves data efficiency, accelerates convergence to higher-performing models, and reduces verbosity bias and hallucination. Furthermore, this framework is versatile enough to integrate with various preference optimization algorithms. Overall, our findings highlight the potential of re-imagining data design for preference learning, demonstrating that even freely available machine-generated rationales can significantly boost performance across multiple dimensions. The code repository is available at https: //github.com/reds-lab/preference-learning-with-rationales

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has a continuous range. This setting is far less explored and represents a substantial shift from the binary treatment setting, with models needing to represent effects across a continuum of treatment values. In this paper, we present the first causal foundation model for the continuous treatment setting. Our model meta-learns the ability to predict causal effects across a wide variety of unseen tasks without additional training or fine-tuning. First, we design a novel prior over data-generating processes with continuous treatment variables in order to generate a rich causal training corpus. We then train a transformer to reconstruct individual treatment-response curves given only observational data, leveraging in-context learning to amortize expensive Bayesian posterior inference. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on individual treatment-response curve reconstruction tasks compared to causal models which are trained specifically for those tasks.

Reasoning requires adaptation to novel problem settings under limited data and distribution shift. This work introduces CausalARC: an experimental testbed for AI reasoning in low-data and out-of-distribution regimes, modeled after the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC). Each CausalARC reasoning task is sampled from a fully specified causal world model, formally expressed as a structural causal model. Principled data augmentations provide observational, interventional, and counterfactual feedback about the world model in the form of few-shot, in-context learning demonstrations. As a proof-of-concept, we illustrate the use of CausalARC for four language model evaluation settings: (1) abstract reasoning with test-time training, (2) counterfactual reasoning with in-context learning, (3) program synthesis, and (4) causal discovery with logical reasoning.

Faithful evaluation of language model capabilities is crucial for deriving actionable insights that can inform model development. However, rigorous causal evaluations in this domain face significant methodological challenges, including complex confounding effects and prohibitive computational costs associated with extensive retraining. To tackle these challenges, we propose a causal representation learning framework wherein observed benchmark performance is modeled as a linear transformation of a few latent capability factors. Crucially, these latent factors are identified as causally interrelated after appropriately controlling for the base model as a common confounder. Applying this approach to a comprehensive dataset encompassing over 1500 models evaluated across six benchmarks from the Open LLM Leaderboard, we identify a concise three-node linear causal structure that reliably explains the observed performance variations. Further interpretation of this causal structure provides substantial scientific insights beyond simple numerical rankings: specifically, we reveal a clear causal direction starting from general problem-solving capabilities, advancing through instruction-following proficiency, and culminating in mathematical reasoning ability. Our results underscore the essential role of carefully controlling base model variations during evaluation, a step critical to accurately uncovering the underlying causal relationships among latent model capabilities.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are vulnerable to jailbreak attacks that exploit weaknesses in traditional safety alignment, which often relies on rigid refusal heuristics or representation engineering to block harmful outputs. While they are effective for direct adversarial attacks, they fall short of broader safety challenges requiring nuanced, context-aware decision-making. To address this, we propose Reasoning-enhanced Finetuning for interpretable LLM Safety (Rational), a novel framework that trains models to engage in explicit safe reasoning before response. Fine-tuned models leverage the extensive pretraining knowledge in self-generated reasoning to bootstrap their own safety through structured reasoning, internalizing context-sensitive decision-making. Our findings suggest that safety extends beyond refusal, requiring context awareness for more robust, interpretable, and adaptive responses. Reasoning is not only a core capability of LLMs but also a fundamental mechanism for LLM safety. Rational employs reasoning-enhanced fine-tuning, allowing it to reject harmful prompts while providing meaningful and context-aware responses in complex scenarios.

Large language models (LLMs) can achieve strong reasoning performance with sufficient computation, but they do not inherently know how much computation a task requires. We study budgeted inference-time reasoning for multiple tasks under a strict global token constraint and formalize it as a Ordered Stochastic Multiple-Choice Knapsack Problem(OS-MCKP). This perspective highlights a meta-cognitive requirement -- anticipating task difficulty, estimating return over investment (ROI), and allocating computation strategically. We propose ROI-Reasoning, a two-stage framework that endows LLMs with intrinsic, budget-aware rationality. In the first stage, Meta-Cognitive Fine-Tuning teaches models to predict reasoning cost and expected utility before generation, enabling explicit solve-or-skip decisions. Next, Rationality-Aware Reinforcement Learning optimizes sequential decision making under a hard token budget, allowing models to learn long-horizon allocation strategies. Across budgeted mathematical reasoning benchmarks, ROI-Reasoning consistently improves overall score while substantially reducing regret under tight computation budgets.

Vision-language models (VLMs) generate fluent causal explanations, but current evaluations cannot distinguish linguistic plausibility from faithful causal reasoning. We introduce a dual-probe methodology that isolates these properties. The Text-Only Probe measures linguistic quality. The Chain-Text Probe requires models to first generate explicit causal chains. The Abstraction Gap (AG) metric quantifies the normalized performance difference. Evaluating eight VLMs on CAGE (Causal Abstraction Gap Evaluation), a benchmark of 49,500 questions across 5,500 images spanning Pearl's causal hierarchy, we find seven models exhibit AG exceeding 0.50 with text scores of 6--8 but chain scores below 2.5. Fine-tuning on 45,000 chain-annotated examples fails to close the gap. However, one model achieves near-zero AG. The capability exists within current VLM architectures and depends on pretraining and architectural choices. CAGE provides a diagnostic tool for assessing faithful causal reasoning in VLMs.

We introduce Motif-2-12.7B-Reasoning, a 12.7B parameter language model designed to bridge the gap between open-weight systems and proprietary frontier models in complex reasoning and long-context understanding. Addressing the common challenges of model collapse and training instability in reasoning adaptation, we propose a comprehensive, reproducible training recipe spanning system, data, and algorithmic optimizations. Our approach combines memory-efficient infrastructure for 64K-token contexts using hybrid parallelism and kernel-level optimizations with a two-stage Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) curriculum that mitigates distribution mismatch through verified, aligned synthetic data. Furthermore, we detail a robust Reinforcement Learning Fine-Tuning (RLFT) pipeline that stabilizes training via difficulty-aware data filtering and mixed-policy trajectory reuse. Empirical results demonstrate that Motif-2-12.7B-Reasoning achieves performance comparable to models with significantly larger parameter counts across mathematics, coding, and agentic benchmarks, offering the community a competitive open model and a practical blueprint for scaling reasoning capabilities under realistic compute constraints.

Recent studies have indicated that effectively utilizing inference-time compute is crucial for attaining better performance from large language models (LLMs). In this work, we propose a novel inference-aware fine-tuning paradigm, in which the model is fine-tuned in a manner that directly optimizes the performance of the inference-time strategy. We study this paradigm using the simple yet effective Best-of-N (BoN) inference strategy, in which a verifier selects the best out of a set of LLM-generated responses. We devise the first imitation learning and reinforcement learning~(RL) methods for BoN-aware fine-tuning, overcoming the challenging, non-differentiable argmax operator within BoN. We empirically demonstrate that our BoN-aware models implicitly learn a meta-strategy that interleaves best responses with more diverse responses that might be better suited to a test-time input -- a process reminiscent of the exploration-exploitation trade-off in RL. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of BoN-aware fine-tuning in terms of improved performance and inference-time compute. In particular, we show that our methods improve the Bo32 performance of Gemma 2B on Hendrycks MATH from 26.8% to 30.8%, and pass@32 from 60.0% to 67.0%, as well as the pass@16 on HumanEval from 61.6% to 67.1%.

Recent research has shown that rationales, or step-by-step chains of thought, can be used to improve performance in multi-step reasoning tasks. We reconsider rationale-augmented prompting for few-shot in-context learning, where (input -> output) prompts are expanded to (input, rationale -> output) prompts. For rationale-augmented prompting we demonstrate how existing approaches, which rely on manual prompt engineering, are subject to sub-optimal rationales that may harm performance. To mitigate this brittleness, we propose a unified framework of rationale-augmented ensembles, where we identify rationale sampling in the output space as the key component to robustly improve performance. This framework is general and can easily be extended to common natural language processing tasks, even those that do not traditionally leverage intermediate steps, such as question answering, word sense disambiguation, and sentiment analysis. We demonstrate that rationale-augmented ensembles achieve more accurate and interpretable results than existing prompting approaches--including standard prompting without rationales and rationale-based chain-of-thought prompting--while simultaneously improving interpretability of model predictions through the associated rationales.

Most work interpreting reasoning models studies only a single chain-of-thought (CoT), yet these models define distributions over many possible CoTs. We argue that studying a single sample is inadequate for understanding causal influence and the underlying computation. Though fully specifying this distribution is intractable, it can be understood by sampling. We present case studies using resampling to investigate model decisions. First, when a model states a reason for its action, does that reason actually cause the action? In "agentic misalignment" scenarios, we resample specific sentences to measure their downstream effects. Self-preservation sentences have small causal impact, suggesting they do not meaningfully drive blackmail. Second, are artificial edits to CoT sufficient for steering reasoning? These are common in literature, yet take the model off-policy. Resampling and selecting a completion with the desired property is a principled on-policy alternative. We find off-policy interventions yield small and unstable effects compared to resampling in decision-making tasks. Third, how do we understand the effect of removing a reasoning step when the model may repeat it post-edit? We introduce a resilience metric that repeatedly resamples to prevent similar content from reappearing downstream. Critical planning statements resist removal but have large effects when eliminated. Fourth, since CoT is sometimes "unfaithful", can our methods teach us anything in these settings? Adapting causal mediation analysis, we find that hints that have a causal effect on the output without being explicitly mentioned exert a subtle and cumulative influence on the CoT that persists even if the hint is removed. Overall, studying distributions via resampling enables reliable causal analysis, clearer narratives of model reasoning, and principled CoT interventions.

Sequence models are a critical component of modern NLP systems, but their predictions are difficult to explain. We consider model explanations though rationales, subsets of context that can explain individual model predictions. We find sequential rationales by solving a combinatorial optimization: the best rationale is the smallest subset of input tokens that would predict the same output as the full sequence. Enumerating all subsets is intractable, so we propose an efficient greedy algorithm to approximate this objective. The algorithm, which is called greedy rationalization, applies to any model. For this approach to be effective, the model should form compatible conditional distributions when making predictions on incomplete subsets of the context. This condition can be enforced with a short fine-tuning step. We study greedy rationalization on language modeling and machine translation. Compared to existing baselines, greedy rationalization is best at optimizing the combinatorial objective and provides the most faithful rationales. On a new dataset of annotated sequential rationales, greedy rationales are most similar to human rationales.

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the "driving force" of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a promising paradigm for post-training large language models (LLMs) on complex reasoning tasks. Yet, the conditions under which RLVR yields robust generalization remain poorly understood. This paper provides an empirical study of RLVR generalization in the setting of probabilistic inference over causal graphical models. This setting offers two natural axes along which to examine generalization: (i) the level of the probabilistic query -- associational, interventional, or counterfactual -- and (ii) the structural complexity of the query, measured by the size of its relevant subgraph. We construct datasets of causal graphs and queries spanning these difficulty axes and fine-tune Qwen-2.5-Instruct models using RLVR or supervised fine-tuning (SFT). We vary both the model scale (3B-32B) and the query level included in training. We find that RLVR yields stronger within-level and across-level generalization than SFT, but only for specific combinations of model size and training query level. Further analysis shows that RLVR's effectiveness depends on the model's initial reasoning competence. With sufficient initial competence, RLVR improves an LLM's marginalization strategy and reduces errors in intermediate probability calculations, producing substantial accuracy gains, particularly on more complex queries. These findings show that RLVR can improve specific causal reasoning subskills, with its benefits emerging only when the model has sufficient initial competence.

Actual causality (AC), a fundamental aspect of causal reasoning (CR), is responsible for attribution and responsibility assignment in real-world scenarios. However, existing LLM-based methods lack grounding in formal AC theory, resulting in limited interpretability. Therefore, we propose AC-Reason, a semi-formal reasoning framework that identifies causally relevant events within an AC scenario, infers the values of their formal causal factors (e.g., sufficiency, necessity, and normality), and answers AC queries via a theory-guided algorithm with explanations. While AC-Reason does not explicitly construct a causal graph, it operates over variables in the underlying causal structure to support principled reasoning. To enable comprehensive evaluation, we introduce AC-Bench, a new benchmark built upon and substantially extending Big-Bench Hard Causal Judgment (BBH-CJ). AC-Bench comprises ~1K carefully annotated samples, each with detailed reasoning steps and focuses solely on actual causation. The case study shows that synthesized samples in AC-Bench present greater challenges for LLMs. Extensive experiments on BBH-CJ and AC-Bench show that AC-Reason consistently improves LLM performance over baselines. On BBH-CJ, all tested LLMs surpass the average human rater accuracy of 69.60%, with GPT-4 + AC-Reason achieving 75.04%. On AC-Bench, GPT-4 + AC-Reason again achieves the highest accuracy of 71.82%. AC-Bench further enables fine-grained analysis of reasoning faithfulness, revealing that only Qwen-2.5-72B-Instruct, Claude-3.5-Sonnet, and GPT-4o exhibit faithful reasoning, whereas GPT-4 tends to exploit shortcuts. Finally, our ablation study proves that integrating AC theory into LLMs is highly effective, with the proposed algorithm contributing the most significant performance gains.

We present a general causal generative modelling framework for accurate estimation of high fidelity image counterfactuals with deep structural causal models. Estimation of interventional and counterfactual queries for high-dimensional structured variables, such as images, remains a challenging task. We leverage ideas from causal mediation analysis and advances in generative modelling to design new deep causal mechanisms for structured variables in causal models. Our experiments demonstrate that our proposed mechanisms are capable of accurate abduction and estimation of direct, indirect and total effects as measured by axiomatic soundness of counterfactuals.

Despite remarkable advances in the field, LLMs remain unreliable in distinguishing causation from correlation. Recent results from the Corr2Cause dataset benchmark reveal that state-of-the-art LLMs -- such as GPT-4 (F1 score: 29.08) -- only marginally outperform random baselines (Random Uniform, F1 score: 20.38), indicating limited capacity of generalization. To tackle this limitation, we propose a novel structured approach: rather than directly answering causal queries, we provide the model with the capability to structure its thinking by guiding the model to build a structured knowledge graph, systematically encoding the provided correlational premises, to answer the causal queries. This intermediate representation significantly enhances the model's causal capabilities. Experiments on the test subset of the Corr2Cause dataset benchmark with Qwen3-32B model (reasoning model) show substantial gains over standard direct prompting methods, improving F1 scores from 32.71 to 48.26 (over 47.5% relative increase), along with notable improvements in precision and recall. These results underscore the effectiveness of providing the model with the capability to structure its thinking and highlight its promising potential for broader generalization across diverse causal inference tasks.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant progress in performing complex tasks. While Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has been effective in aligning LLMs with human preferences, it is susceptible to spurious correlations in reward modeling. Consequently, it often introduces biases-such as length bias, sycophancy, conceptual bias, and discrimination that hinder the model's ability to capture true causal relationships. To address this, we propose a novel causal reward modeling approach that integrates causal inference to mitigate these spurious correlations. Our method enforces counterfactual invariance, ensuring reward predictions remain consistent when irrelevant variables are altered. Through experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, we show that our approach mitigates various types of spurious correlations effectively, resulting in more reliable and fair alignment of LLMs with human preferences. As a drop-in enhancement to the existing RLHF workflow, our causal reward modeling provides a practical way to improve the trustworthiness and fairness of LLM finetuning.

It has long been hypothesised that causal reasoning plays a fundamental role in robust and general intelligence. However, it is not known if agents must learn causal models in order to generalise to new domains, or if other inductive biases are sufficient. We answer this question, showing that any agent capable of satisfying a regret bound under a large set of distributional shifts must have learned an approximate causal model of the data generating process, which converges to the true causal model for optimal agents. We discuss the implications of this result for several research areas including transfer learning and causal inference.

Interpretability research now offers a variety of techniques for identifying abstract internal mechanisms in neural networks. Can such techniques be used to predict how models will behave on out-of-distribution examples? In this work, we provide a positive answer to this question. Through a diverse set of language modeling tasks--including symbol manipulation, knowledge retrieval, and instruction following--we show that the most robust features for correctness prediction are those that play a distinctive causal role in the model's behavior. Specifically, we propose two methods that leverage causal mechanisms to predict the correctness of model outputs: counterfactual simulation (checking whether key causal variables are realized) and value probing (using the values of those variables to make predictions). Both achieve high AUC-ROC in distribution and outperform methods that rely on causal-agnostic features in out-of-distribution settings, where predicting model behaviors is more crucial. Our work thus highlights a novel and significant application for internal causal analysis of language models.

This paper offers a new perspective to ease the challenge of domain generalization, which involves maintaining robust results even in unseen environments. Our design focuses on the decision-making process in the final classifier layer. Specifically, we propose treating the element-wise contributions to the final results as the rationale for making a decision and representing the rationale for each sample as a matrix. For a well-generalized model, we suggest the rationale matrices for samples belonging to the same category should be similar, indicating the model relies on domain-invariant clues to make decisions, thereby ensuring robust results. To implement this idea, we introduce a rationale invariance loss as a simple regularization technique, requiring only a few lines of code. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves competitive results across various datasets, despite its simplicity. Code is available at https://github.com/liangchen527/RIDG.

Using offline datasets to evaluate conversational agents often fails to cover rare scenarios or to support testing new policies. This has motivated the use of controllable user simulators for targeted, counterfactual evaluation, typically implemented by prompting or fine-tuning large language models. In this work, we formalize controllable simulation as a causal inference problem. By bridging natural language evaluation with off-policy evaluation methodology, we show that the standard practice of training simulators via supervised fine-tuning on post-hoc trajectory labels yields a structurally biased model. Specifically, these labels are inextricably coupled to the data-generating behavior policy, injecting a look-ahead bias that breaks causal consistency. Furthermore, we prove that under policy shift this failure causes the variance of evaluation metrics to explode geometrically, a phenomenon we term controllability collapse. To restore causal consistency, we establish theoretical conditions for accurate simulation and propose practical training mitigations: a priori controls, step-wise dynamic controls, and direct policy-conditioned learning. Empirical evaluation confirms that while standard global controls distort conversational distributions and collapse behavioral diversity, our causally grounded simulators eliminate look-ahead bias, preserve natural variance, and exhibit robust zero-shot generalization to unseen agent behaviors.

Recent advancements in Long Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning models have improved performance on complex tasks, but they suffer from overthinking, which generates redundant reasoning steps, especially for simple questions. This paper revisits the reasoning patterns of Long and Short CoT models, observing that the Short CoT patterns offer concise reasoning efficiently, while the Long CoT patterns excel in challenging scenarios where the Short CoT patterns struggle. To enable models to leverage both patterns, we propose Question-Free Fine-Tuning (QFFT), a fine-tuning approach that removes the input question during training and learns exclusively from Long CoT responses. This approach enables the model to adaptively employ both reasoning patterns: it prioritizes the Short CoT patterns and activates the Long CoT patterns only when necessary. Experiments on various mathematical datasets demonstrate that QFFT reduces average response length by more than 50\%, while achieving performance comparable to Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT). Additionally, QFFT exhibits superior performance compared to SFT in noisy, out-of-domain, and low-resource scenarios.

We introduce Phi-4-reasoning, a 14-billion parameter reasoning model that achieves strong performance on complex reasoning tasks. Trained via supervised fine-tuning of Phi-4 on carefully curated set of "teachable" prompts-selected for the right level of complexity and diversity-and reasoning demonstrations generated using o3-mini, Phi-4-reasoning generates detailed reasoning chains that effectively leverage inference-time compute. We further develop Phi-4-reasoning-plus, a variant enhanced through a short phase of outcome-based reinforcement learning that offers higher performance by generating longer reasoning traces. Across a wide range of reasoning tasks, both models outperform significantly larger open-weight models such as DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Llama-70B model and approach the performance levels of full DeepSeek-R1 model. Our comprehensive evaluations span benchmarks in math and scientific reasoning, coding, algorithmic problem solving, planning, and spatial understanding. Interestingly, we observe a non-trivial transfer of improvements to general-purpose benchmarks as well. In this report, we provide insights into our training data, our training methodologies, and our evaluations. We show that the benefit of careful data curation for supervised fine-tuning (SFT) extends to reasoning language models, and can be further amplified by reinforcement learning (RL). Finally, our evaluation points to opportunities for improving how we assess the performance and robustness of reasoning models.

A faithful and interpretable explanation of an AI model's behavior and internal structure is a high-level explanation that is human-intelligible but also consistent with the known, but often opaque low-level causal details of the model. We argue that the theory of causal abstraction provides the mathematical foundations for the desired kinds of model explanations. In causal abstraction analysis, we use interventions on model-internal states to rigorously assess whether an interpretable high-level causal model is a faithful description of an AI model. Our contributions in this area are: (1) We generalize causal abstraction to cyclic causal structures and typed high-level variables. (2) We show how multi-source interchange interventions can be used to conduct causal abstraction analyses. (3) We define a notion of approximate causal abstraction that allows us to assess the degree to which a high-level causal model is a causal abstraction of a lower-level one. (4) We prove constructive causal abstraction can be decomposed into three operations we refer to as marginalization, variable-merge, and value-merge. (5) We formalize the XAI methods of LIME, causal effect estimation, causal mediation analysis, iterated nullspace projection, and circuit-based explanations as special cases of causal abstraction analysis.

The reasoning steps generated by LLMs might be incomplete, as they mimic logical leaps common in everyday communication found in their pre-training data: underlying rationales are frequently left implicit (unstated). To address this challenge, we introduce RATIONALYST, a model for process-supervision of reasoning based on pre-training on a vast collection of rationale annotations extracted from unlabeled data. We extract 79k rationales from web-scale unlabelled dataset (the Pile) and a combination of reasoning datasets with minimal human intervention. This web-scale pre-training for reasoning allows RATIONALYST to consistently generalize across diverse reasoning tasks, including mathematical, commonsense, scientific, and logical reasoning. Fine-tuned from LLaMa-3-8B, RATIONALYST improves the accuracy of reasoning by an average of 3.9% on 7 representative reasoning benchmarks. It also demonstrates superior performance compared to significantly larger verifiers like GPT-4 and similarly sized models fine-tuned on matching training sets.

Reinforcement learning (RL) for mathematical reasoning can suffer from reward sparsity: for challenging problems, LLM fails to sample any correct trajectories, preventing RL from receiving meaningful positive feedback. At the same time, there often exist human-written reference solutions along with the problem (e.g., problems from AoPS), but directly fine-tuning on these solutions offers no benefit because models often cannot imitate human proofs that lie outside their own reasoning distribution. We introduce Reference-Guided Fine-Tuning (ReGFT), a simple and effective method that utilizes human-written reference solutions to synthesize positive trajectories on hard problems and train on them before RL. For each problem, we provide the model with a partial reference solution and let it generate its own reasoning trace, ensuring the resulting trajectories remain in the model's reasoning space while still benefiting from reference guidance. Fine-tuning on these reference-guided trajectories increases the number of solvable problems and produces a checkpoint that receives more positive rewards during RL. Across three benchmarks (AIME24, AIME25, BeyondAIME), ReGFT consistently improves supervised accuracy, accelerates DAPO training, and raises the final performance plateau of RL. Our results show that ReGFT effectively overcomes reward sparsity and unlocks stronger RL-based mathematical reasoning.

Long-tailed learning has garnered increasing attention due to its practical significance. Among the various approaches, the fine-tuning paradigm has gained considerable interest with the advent of foundation models. However, most existing methods primarily focus on leveraging knowledge from these models, overlooking the inherent biases introduced by the imbalanced training data they rely on. In this paper, we examine how such imbalances from pre-training affect long-tailed downstream tasks. Specifically, we find the imbalance biases inherited in foundation models on downstream task as parameter imbalance and data imbalance. During fine-tuning, we observe that parameter imbalance plays a more critical role, while data imbalance can be mitigated using existing re-balancing strategies. Moreover, we find that parameter imbalance cannot be effectively addressed by current re-balancing techniques, such as adjusting the logits, during training, unlike data imbalance. To tackle both imbalances simultaneously, we build our method on causal learning and view the incomplete semantic factor as the confounder, which brings spurious correlations between input samples and labels. To resolve the negative effects of this, we propose a novel backdoor adjustment method that learns the true causal effect between input samples and labels, rather than merely fitting the correlations in the data. Notably, we achieve an average performance increase of about 1.67% on each dataset.

Recent attempts to combine large language models (LLMs) with causal discovery ask models to infer pairwise directions, propose graph structures, or inject language-model outputs as priors and constraints. These approaches promise faster analysis, but they also obscure whether a causal evidence is supported by data and assumptions or by textual associations, prompt artifacts and hallucinated mechanisms. We argue for a different role for agents in causal discovery. Agents should inspect data, retrieve context, explain method assumptions and clarify graph outputs, but they should not supply edges, orientations, priors, constraints or causal conclusions. We propose the principle that agents assist the workflow, while causal claims remain grounded in data, explicit assumptions, formal algorithms, diagnostics and user or domain-expert decisions. We instantiate this principle in causal-learn+, an online platform that coordinates data analysis, preprocessing, method recommendation, expert-knowledge incorporation, formal discovery and interpretation around the algorithmic ecosystem of causal-learn. A case study on Big Five personality data illustrates agent-assisted pipeline of causal discovery without turning language-model unreliability into causal evidence. The platform is available at causallearn.com.

Reinforcement learning (RL)-based post-training often improves the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs) beyond the training domain, while supervised fine-tuning (SFT) frequently leads to general capabilities forgetting. However, the mechanisms underlying this contrast remain unclear. To bridge this gap, we present a feature-level mechanistic analysis methodology to probe RL generalization using a controlled experimental setup, where RL- and SFT-tuned models are trained from the same base model on identical data. Leveraging our interpretability framework, we align internal activations across models within a shared feature space and analyze how features evolve during post-training. We find that SFT rapidly introduces many highly specialized features that stabilize early in training, whereas RL induces more restrained and continually evolving feature changes that largely preserve base models' representations. Focusing on samples where RL succeeds but the base model fails, we identify a compact, task-agnostic set of features that directly mediate generalization across diverse tasks. Feature-level interventions confirm their causal role: disabling these features significantly degrades RL models' generalization performance, while amplifying them improves base models' performance. The code is available at https://github.com/danshi777/RL-generalization.

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) has emerged as one of the most effective ways to improve the performance of large language models (LLMs) in downstream tasks. However, SFT can have difficulty generalizing when the underlying data distribution changes, even when the new data does not fall completely outside the training domain. Recent reasoning-focused models such as o1 and R1 have demonstrated consistent gains over their non-reasoning counterparts, highlighting the importance of reasoning for improved generalization and reliability. However, collecting high-quality reasoning traces for SFT remains challenging -- annotations are costly, subjective, and difficult to scale. To address this limitation, we leverage Reinforcement Learning (RL) to enable models to learn reasoning strategies directly from task outcomes. We propose a pipeline in which LLMs generate reasoning steps that guide both the invocation of tools (e.g., function calls) and the final answer generation for conversational agents. Our method employs Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with rewards designed around tool accuracy and answer correctness, allowing the model to iteratively refine its reasoning and actions. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach improves both the quality of reasoning and the precision of tool invocations, achieving a 1.5% relative improvement over the SFT model (trained without explicit thinking) and a 40% gain compared to the base of the vanilla Qwen3-1.7B model. These findings demonstrate the promise of unifying reasoning and action learning through RL to build more capable and generalizable conversational agents.

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) typically maximizes the likelihood of every token in a demonstrated trajectory. However, an observed token can be non-unique, noisy, or misaligned with the model prior. Strictly fitting toward this one-hot target may be suboptimal, especially when the pretrained model encodes a rich knowledge prior. In this work, we reinterpret SFT as target distribution design: instead of studying only the loss objective, we analyze the token-level target that the loss drives the model to match. We introduce the Q-target framework, which decomposes SFT supervision into two explicit choices: (1) how strongly to rely on the observed token, and (2) how to allocate the remaining probability mass over alternatives. This perspective unifies many existing SFT variants as implicit choices of the target distribution Q. Building on this view, we propose Target-SFT which constructs the training objective directly from the desired target distribution. This method consistently outperforms across the ten reasoning dataset-model settings evaluated, showing the effectiveness of this target-based approach. Overall, our formulation reveals a more fundamental design principle for SFT training and opens a broader search space for SFT objectives.

Large language models (LLMs) can now solve complex problems through long chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning, but the trade-off between performance and token cost remains a central challenge. To address this issue, supervised fine-tuning (SFT) often uses compressed reasoning data, where CoT traces are shortened into compact forms. However, the effect of such compressed reasoning data on post-training remains poorly understood. In this paper, we propose a taxonomy of CoT consisting of Explicit CoT, which outputs all operations without aggregation, Composed CoT, which combines multiple operations into a single step, and Implicit CoT, which omits intermediate operations. We construct a synthetic compositional reasoning task that allows controlled variation of difficulty, compression granularity, and data size, and conducted a comprehensive set of experiments across different model families and sizes. Notably, we find that (i) coarser CoT requires more SFT data, (ii) compared with Explicit CoT, Composed CoT and Implicit CoT benefit more from data scaling, while Composed CoT benefits from data repetition and Implicit CoT tends to lead to memorization, (iii) unlike SFT, subsequent reinforcement learning (RL) with verifiable rewards (RLVR) decomposes compressed steps learned during SFT, and (iv) unidirectional CoT ordering shows stronger generalization on longer sequential tasks. Our findings provide implications for CoT design under data resource constraints and offer important insights into the mechanisms of SFT and RL in LLM post-training.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable ability in various language tasks, especially with their emergent in-context learning capability. Extending LLMs to incorporate visual inputs, large vision-language models (LVLMs) have shown impressive performance in tasks such as recognition and visual question answering (VQA). Despite increasing interest in the utility of LLMs in causal reasoning tasks such as causal discovery and counterfactual reasoning, there has been relatively little work showcasing the abilities of LVLMs on visual causal reasoning tasks. We take this opportunity to formally introduce a comprehensive causal reasoning benchmark for multi-modal in-context learning from LVLMs. Our CausalVLBench encompasses three representative tasks: causal structure inference, intervention target prediction, and counterfactual prediction. We evaluate the ability of state-of-the-art open-source LVLMs on our causal reasoning tasks across three causal representation learning datasets and demonstrate their fundamental strengths and weaknesses. We hope that our benchmark elucidates the drawbacks of existing vision-language models and motivates new directions and paradigms in improving the visual causal reasoning abilities of LVLMs.

Large vision-language models (VLMs) fine-tuned on specialized visual instruction-following data have exhibited impressive language reasoning capabilities across various scenarios. However, this fine-tuning paradigm may not be able to efficiently learn optimal decision-making agents in multi-step goal-directed tasks from interactive environments. To address this challenge, we propose an algorithmic framework that fine-tunes VLMs with reinforcement learning (RL). Specifically, our framework provides a task description and then prompts the VLM to generate chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning, enabling the VLM to efficiently explore intermediate reasoning steps that lead to the final text-based action. Next, the open-ended text output is parsed into an executable action to interact with the environment to obtain goal-directed task rewards. Finally, our framework uses these task rewards to fine-tune the entire VLM with RL. Empirically, we demonstrate that our proposed framework enhances the decision-making capabilities of VLM agents across various tasks, enabling 7b models to outperform commercial models such as GPT4-V or Gemini. Furthermore, we find that CoT reasoning is a crucial component for performance improvement, as removing the CoT reasoning results in a significant decrease in the overall performance of our method.

Table reasoning, encompassing tasks such as table question answering, fact verification, and text-to-SQL, requires precise understanding of structured tabular data, coupled with numerical computation and code manipulation for effective inference. Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) approaches have achieved notable success but often struggle with generalization and robustness due to biases inherent in imitative learning. We introduce Reasoning-Table, the first application of reinforcement learning (RL) to table reasoning, achieving state-of-the-art performance. Through rigorous data preprocessing, reward design, and tailored training strategies, our method leverages simple rule-based outcome rewards to outperform SFT across multiple benchmarks. Unified training across diverse tasks enables Reasoning-Table to emerge as a robust table reasoning large language model, surpassing larger proprietary models like Claude-3.7-Sonnet by 4.0% on table reasoning benchmarks. The approach also achieves excellent performance on text-to-SQL tasks, reaching 68.3% performance on the BIRD dev dataset with a 7B model. Further experiments demonstrate that Reasoning-Table enhances the model's generalization capabilities and robustness.

Dynamical generative models that produce samples through an iterative process, such as Flow Matching and denoising diffusion models, have seen widespread use, but there have not been many theoretically-sound methods for improving these models with reward fine-tuning. In this work, we cast reward fine-tuning as stochastic optimal control (SOC). Critically, we prove that a very specific memoryless noise schedule must be enforced during fine-tuning, in order to account for the dependency between the noise variable and the generated samples. We also propose a new algorithm named Adjoint Matching which outperforms existing SOC algorithms, by casting SOC problems as a regression problem. We find that our approach significantly improves over existing methods for reward fine-tuning, achieving better consistency, realism, and generalization to unseen human preference reward models, while retaining sample diversity.

Personalizing large language models (LLMs) for individual users has become increasingly important as they are progressively integrated into real-world applications to support users' daily lives. However, existing personalization approaches often fail to distinguish which components of model predictions and training data truly reflect user preferences, leading to superficial personalization alignment. In this paper, we introduce NextQuill, a novel LLM personalization alignment framework grounded in causal preference modeling. We approach personalization from a causal perspective, treating both model predictions and ground-truth data generation as outcomes influenced by user preferences, along with other factors. We define the true preference effect as the causal impact of user history (which reflects preferences) on each token prediction or data generation instance, estimated through causal intervention techniques. Building on this insight, NextQuill introduces two complementary alignment strategies: (1) aligning model-internal causal preference effects on predictions with those reflected in ground-truth data, rather than indiscriminately fitting predictions, and (2) focusing on fitting preference-bearing tokens identified via ground-truth data preference effects, rather than treating all tokens uniformly. By integrating these strategies, NextQuill shifts the alignment process toward learning from causal preference effects, facilitating more effective and personalized adaptation. Experiments across multiple personalization benchmarks demonstrate that NextQuill significantly improves personalization quality, offering a principled, causal foundation for LLM personalization. Our codes are available on https://github.com/juntaoyou/NextQuill.

Well-being encompasses mental, physical, and social dimensions essential to personal growth and informed life decisions. As individuals increasingly consult Large Language Models (LLMs) to understand well-being, a key challenge emerges: Can LLMs generate explanations that are not only accurate but also tailored to diverse audiences? High-quality explanations require both factual correctness and the ability to meet the expectations of users with varying expertise. In this work, we construct a large-scale dataset comprising 43,880 explanations of 2,194 well-being concepts, generated by ten diverse LLMs. We introduce a principle-guided LLM-as-a-judge evaluation framework, employing dual judges to assess explanation quality. Furthermore, we show that fine-tuning an open-source LLM using Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) can significantly enhance the quality of generated explanations. Our results reveal: (1) The proposed LLM judges align well with human evaluations; (2) explanation quality varies significantly across models, audiences, and categories; and (3) DPO- and SFT-finetuned models outperform their larger counterparts, demonstrating the effectiveness of preference-based learning for specialized explanation tasks.

As machine learning models evolve, maintaining transparency demands more human-centric explainable AI techniques. Counterfactual explanations, with roots in human reasoning, identify the minimal input changes needed to obtain a given output and, hence, are crucial for supporting decision-making. Despite their importance, the evaluation of these explanations often lacks grounding in user studies and remains fragmented, with existing metrics not fully capturing human perspectives. To address this challenge, we developed a diverse set of 30 counterfactual scenarios and collected ratings across 8 evaluation metrics from 206 respondents. Subsequently, we fine-tuned different Large Language Models (LLMs) to predict average or individual human judgment across these metrics. Our methodology allowed LLMs to achieve an accuracy of up to 63% in zero-shot evaluations and 85% (over a 3-classes prediction) with fine-tuning across all metrics. The fine-tuned models predicting human ratings offer better comparability and scalability in evaluating different counterfactual explanation frameworks.

We present a method for diagnosing interpretation in neural networks by identifying an input subspace where a proposed interpretation is highly faithful. Our method is particularly useful for causal-abstraction-style interpretability, where a high-level causal hypothesis is evaluated by interchange interventions. Rather than treating interchange intervention accuracy as a single global summary, we refine this framework by partitioning the input space into well-interpreted and under-interpreted regions according to pairwise interchange-intervention behavior. This turns causal abstraction from a purely global evaluation into a more diagnostic tool: it not only measures whether an interpretation works, but also reveals where it works, where it fails, and what distinguishes the two cases. This diagnostic view also provides practical heuristics for improving interpretations. By analyzing the structure of the well-interpreted and under-interpreted regions, we can identify missing distinctions in a high-level hypothesis, discover previously unmodeled intermediate variables, and combine complementary partial interpretations into a stronger one. We instantiate this idea as a simple four-step recipe and show that it yields informative error analyses across multiple causal abstraction settings. In a toy logic task, recursively applying the recipe recovers a high-level hypothesis from scratch. More broadly, our results suggest that partitioning the input space is a useful step toward more precise, constructive, and scalable mechanistic interpretability.

Latent or continuous chain-of-thought methods replace explicit textual rationales with a number of internal latent steps, but these intermediate computations are difficult to evaluate beyond correlation-based probes. In this paper, we view latent chain-of-thought as a manipulable causal process in representation space by modeling latent steps as variables in a structural causal model (SCM) and analyzing their effects through step-wise do-interventions. We study two representative paradigms (i.e., Coconut and CODI) on both mathematical and general reasoning tasks to investigate three key questions: (1) which steps are causally necessary for correctness and when answers become decidable early; (2) how does influence propagate across steps, and how does this structure compare to explicit CoT; and (3) do intermediate trajectories retain competing answer modes, and how does output-level commitment differ from representational commitment across steps. We find that latent-step budgets behave less like homogeneous extra depth and more like staged functionality with non-local routing, and we identify a persistent gap between early output bias and late representational commitment. These results motivate mode-conditional and stability-aware analyses -- and corresponding training/decoding objectives -- as more reliable tools for interpreting and improving latent reasoning systems. Code is available at https://github.com/J1mL1/causal-latent-cot.

In reasoning tasks, even a minor error can cascade into inaccurate results, leading to suboptimal performance of large language models in such domains. Earlier fine-tuning approaches sought to mitigate this by leveraging more precise supervisory signals from human labeling, larger models, or self-sampling, although at a high cost. Conversely, we develop a method that avoids external resources, relying instead on introducing perturbations to the input. Our training approach randomly masks certain tokens within the chain of thought, a technique we found to be particularly effective for reasoning tasks. When applied to fine-tuning with GSM8K, this method achieved a 5% improvement in accuracy over standard supervised fine-tuning with a few codes modified and no additional labeling effort. Furthermore, it is complementary to existing methods. When integrated with related data augmentation methods, it leads to an average improvement of 3% improvement in GSM8K accuracy and 1% improvement in MATH accuracy across five datasets of various quality and size, as well as two base models. We further investigate the mechanisms behind this improvement through case studies and quantitative analysis, suggesting that our approach may provide superior support for the model in capturing long-distance dependencies, especially those related to questions. This enhancement could deepen understanding of premises in questions and prior steps. Our code is available at Github.

Recent progress in large language models has led to the emergence of reasoning models, which have shown strong performance on complex tasks through specialized fine-tuning procedures. While these methods reliably improve pass@1 accuracy, prior works have observed that they show a coverage shrinkage behavior, where pass@k degrades relative to the base model. In this paper, we investigate the reasoning shrinkage arise under SFT-based post-training. We hypothesize that this behavior is driven by properties of the fine-tuning data, specifically related to decision points or "forks in the road" scenarios where model faces indecipherable patterns with multiple valid reasoning paths. To test this hypothesis, we design controlled case studies that simulate such decision-point settings, spanning indecipherable nodes in graph branching, and reasoning modes. By tracking post-training dynamics in these settings, we find that the shrinkage phenomenon is tightly correlated with the prevalence of decision-point scenarios in the training data. We also demonstrate that this shrinkage behavior can be partially mitigated through targeted data synthesis design of decision-points, and a more systematic diversity-encouraging decoding mechanism. Our findings identify data-centric factors as a key driver of shrinkage in reasoning models and highlight diversity-aware designs as an effective lever for controlling it.

When people reason about cause and effect, they often consider many competing "what if" scenarios before deciding which explanation fits best. Analogously, advanced language models capable of causal inference can consider multiple interventions and counterfactuals to judge the validity of causal claims. Crucially, this type of reasoning is less like a single calculation and more like an internal dialogue between alternative hypotheses. In this paper, we make this dialogue explicit through a dual-agent debate framework where one model provides a structured causal inference, and the other critically examines this reasoning for logical flaws. When disagreements arise, agents attempt to persuade each other, challenging each other's logic and revising their conclusions until they converge on a mutually agreed answer. To take advantage of this deliberative process, we specifically use reasoning language models, whose strengths in both causal inference and adversarial debate remain under-explored relative to standard large language models. We evaluate our approach on the CLadder dataset, a benchmark linking natural language questions to formally defined causal graphs across all three rungs of Pearl's ladder of causation. With Qwen3 and DeepSeek-R1 as debater agents, we demonstrate that multi-agent debate improves DeepSeek-R1's overall accuracy in causal inference from 78.03% to 87.45%, with the counterfactual category specifically improving from 67.94% to 80.04% accuracy. Similarly, Qwen3's overall accuracy improves from 84.16% to 89.41%, and counterfactual questions from 71.53% to 80.35%, showing that strong models can still benefit greatly from debate with weaker agents. Our results highlight the potential of reasoning models as building blocks for multi-agent systems in causal inference, and demonstrate the importance of diverse perspectives in causal problem-solving.

Causal analysis plays a foundational role in scientific discovery and reliable decision-making, yet it remains largely inaccessible to domain experts due to its conceptual and algorithmic complexity. This disconnect between causal methodology and practical usability presents a dual challenge: domain experts are unable to leverage recent advances in causal learning, while causal researchers lack broad, real-world deployment to test and refine their methods. To address this, we introduce Causal-Copilot, an autonomous agent that operationalizes expert-level causal analysis within a large language model framework. Causal-Copilot automates the full pipeline of causal analysis for both tabular and time-series data -- including causal discovery, causal inference, algorithm selection, hyperparameter optimization, result interpretation, and generation of actionable insights. It supports interactive refinement through natural language, lowering the barrier for non-specialists while preserving methodological rigor. By integrating over 20 state-of-the-art causal analysis techniques, our system fosters a virtuous cycle -- expanding access to advanced causal methods for domain experts while generating rich, real-world applications that inform and advance causal theory. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that Causal-Copilot achieves superior performance compared to existing baselines, offering a reliable, scalable, and extensible solution that bridges the gap between theoretical sophistication and real-world applicability in causal analysis. A live interactive demo of Causal-Copilot is available at https://causalcopilot.com/.

Large Language Models (LLMs) show strong reasoning abilities, often amplified by Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting and reinforcement learning (RL). Although RL algorithms can substantially improve reasoning, they struggle to expand reasoning boundaries because they learn from their own reasoning trajectories rather than acquiring external knowledge. Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) offers complementary benefits but typically requires large-scale data and risks overfitting. Recent attempts to combine SFT and RL face three main challenges: data inefficiency, algorithm-specific designs, and catastrophic forgetting. We propose a plug-and-play framework that dynamically integrates SFT into RL by selecting challenging examples for SFT. This approach reduces SFT data requirements and remains agnostic to the choice of RL or SFT algorithm. To mitigate catastrophic forgetting of RL-acquired skills during SFT, we select high-entropy tokens for loss calculation and freeze parameters identified as critical for RL. Our method achieves state-of-the-art (SoTA) reasoning performance using only 1.5% of the SFT data and 20.4% of the RL data used by prior SoTA, providing an efficient and plug-and-play solution for combining SFT and RL in reasoning post-training.

Training language models with rationales augmentation has been shown to be beneficial in many existing works. In this paper, we identify that such a prevailing view does not hold consistently. We conduct comprehensive investigations to thoroughly inspect the impact of rationales on model performance as well as a novel perspective of model reliability. The results lead to several key findings that add new insights upon existing understandings: 1) Rationales can, at times, deteriorate model performance; 2) Rationales can, at times, improve model reliability, even outperforming their untrained counterparts; 3) A linear correspondence exists in between the performance and reliability improvements, while both are driven by the intrinsic difficulty of the task. These findings provide informative regulations on the broad utilization of rationales and raise critical implications on the procedure of explicitly aligning language models with implicit human thoughts. Codes can be found at https://github.com/Ignoramus0817/rationales.

Many tasks require learned models to strategically gather relevant information over multiple rounds of interaction before actually acting on a task. Strategic information gathering requires models to know not only how to effectively acquire information, but also when to stop gathering information and make a decision, in order to avoid overthinking or getting derailed when acting. In this paper, we formalize this problem and introduce Counterfactuals and Reasoning for Termination (CaRT), an approach for teaching LLMs when to stop seeking information. To appropriately learn when to terminate, CaRT fine-tunes LLMs using counterfactual pairs of trajectories, one where termination is appropriate and a minimally modified version of the same trajectory where it is not. It trains the LLM to explain the rationale for the termination decision in either case via verbal reasoning, and imbues this capability into the base LLM via fine-tuning. We instantiate CaRT in two domains: interactive medical diagnosis and math problem solving. In both domains, we find that CaRT improves the efficiency of information gathering and task success rate compared to other fine-tuning methods.

Although reinforcement learning (RL) has significantly advanced reasoning capabilities in large multimodal language models (MLLMs), its efficacy remains limited for lightweight models essential for edge deployments.To address this issue, we leverage causal analysis and experiment to reveal the underlying phenomenon of perceptual bias, demonstrating that RL-based fine-tuning compels lightweight models to preferentially adopt perceptual shortcuts induced by data biases, rather than developing genuine reasoning abilities.Motivated by this insight, we propose VideoThinker, a causal-inspired framework that cultivates robust reasoning in lightweight models through a two-stage debiasing process. First, the Bias Aware Training stage forges a dedicated "bias model" to embody these shortcut behaviors. Then, the Causal Debiasing Policy Optimization (CDPO) algorithm fine-tunes the primary model, employing an innovative repulsive objective to actively push it away from the bias model's flawed logic while simultaneously pulling it toward correct, generalizable solutions.Our model, VideoThinker-R1, establishes a new state-of-the-art in video reasoning efficiency. For same-scale comparison, requiring no Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and using only 1 of the training data for RL, it surpasses VideoRFT-3B with a 3.2% average gain on widely-used benchmarks and a 7% lead on VideoMME. For cross-scale comparison, it outperforms the larger Video-UTR-7B model on multiple benchmarks, including a 2.1% gain on MVBench and a 3.8% gain on TempCompass. Code is available at https://github.com/falonss703/VideoThinker.

Recent alignment studies commonly remove introductory boilerplate phrases from supervised fine-tuning (SFT) datasets. This work challenges that assumption. We hypothesize that safety- and reasoning-oriented prefix sentences serve as lightweight alignment signals that can guide model decoding toward safer and more coherent responses. To examine this, we fine-tune three R1 series models across three core model capabilities: reasoning (mathematics, coding), safety, and factuality, systematically varying prefix inclusion from 0% to 100%. Results show that prefix-conditioned SFT improves both safety and reasoning performance, yielding up to +6% higher Safe@1 accuracy on adversarial benchmarks (WildJailbreak, StrongReject) and +7% improvement on GSM8K reasoning. However, factuality and coding tasks show marginal or negative effects, indicating that prefix-induced narrowing of the search space benefits structured reasoning. Token-level loss analysis further reveals that prefix tokens such as "revised" and "logically" incur higher gradient magnitudes, acting as alignment anchors that stabilize reasoning trajectories. Our findings suggest that prefix conditioning offers a scalable and interpretable mechanism for improving reasoning safety, serving as an implicit form of alignment that complements traditional reward-based methods.

Interpreting the inner function of neural networks is crucial for the trustworthy development and deployment of these black-box models. Prior interpretability methods focus on correlation-based measures to attribute model decisions to individual examples. However, these measures are susceptible to noise and spurious correlations encoded in the model during the training phase (e.g., biased inputs, model overfitting, or misspecification). Moreover, this process has proven to result in noisy and unstable attributions that prevent any transparent understanding of the model's behavior. In this paper, we develop a robust interventional-based method grounded by causal analysis to capture cause-effect mechanisms in pre-trained neural networks and their relation to the prediction. Our novel approach relies on path interventions to infer the causal mechanisms within hidden layers and isolate relevant and necessary information (to model prediction), avoiding noisy ones. The result is task-specific causal explanatory graphs that can audit model behavior and express the actual causes underlying its performance. We apply our method to vision models trained on classification tasks. On image classification tasks, we provide extensive quantitative experiments to show that our approach can capture more stable and faithful explanations than standard attribution-based methods. Furthermore, the underlying causal graphs reveal the neural interactions in the model, making it a valuable tool in other applications (e.g., model repair).

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) provides the standard approach for teaching LLMs new behaviors from offline expert demonstrations. However, standard SFT uniformly fits all samples -- including those with low likelihood under the base model -- which can disproportionately drive training updates toward overfitting specific samples rather than learning the target behavior. Moreover, adapting to these unlikely samples induces substantial policy shifts that degrade prior capabilities. Existing methods mitigate this by filtering, regenerating, or down-weighting low-likelihood data. In doing so, they often suppress precisely the novel behaviors the base model has yet to learn. We propose InfoSFT, a principled weighting scheme for the SFT objective that concentrates learning signals on maximally informative, medium-confidence tokens -- those neither overly familiar to the base model nor too unlikely to cause instability. Requiring only a one-line modification to the standard token-wise loss, InfoSFT demonstrably improves generalization over vanilla SFT and likelihood-weighted baselines across math, code, and chain-of-thought tasks with diverse model families, while better preserving pre-existing capabilities.

True intelligence hinges on the ability to uncover and leverage hidden causal relations. Despite significant progress in AI and computer vision (CV), there remains a lack of benchmarks for assessing models' abilities to infer latent causality from complex visual data. In this paper, we introduce \textbf{Causal3D}, a novel and comprehensive benchmark that integrates structured data (tables) with corresponding visual representations (images) to evaluate causal reasoning. Designed within a systematic framework, Causal3D comprises 19 3D-scene datasets capturing diverse causal relations, views, and backgrounds, enabling evaluations across scenes of varying complexity. We assess multiple state-of-the-art methods, including classical causal discovery, causal representation learning, and large/vision-language models (LLMs/VLMs). Our experiments show that as causal structures grow more complex without prior knowledge, performance declines significantly, highlighting the challenges even advanced methods face in complex causal scenarios. Causal3D serves as a vital resource for advancing causal reasoning in CV and fostering trustworthy AI in critical domains.

Foundation models have received much attention due to their effectiveness across a broad range of downstream applications. Though there is a big convergence in terms of architecture, most pretrained models are typically still developed for specific tasks or modalities. In this work, we propose to use language models as a general-purpose interface to various foundation models. A collection of pretrained encoders perceive diverse modalities (such as vision, and language), and they dock with a language model that plays the role of a universal task layer. We propose a semi-causal language modeling objective to jointly pretrain the interface and the modular encoders. We subsume the advantages and capabilities from both causal and non-causal modeling, thereby combining the best of two worlds. Specifically, the proposed method not only inherits the capabilities of in-context learning and open-ended generation from causal language modeling, but also is conducive to finetuning because of the bidirectional encoders. More importantly, our approach seamlessly unlocks the combinations of the above capabilities, e.g., enabling in-context learning or instruction following with finetuned encoders. Experimental results across various language-only and vision-language benchmarks show that our model outperforms or is competitive with specialized models on finetuning, zero-shot generalization, and few-shot learning.

In this paper, we propose REASON, a novel framework that enables the automatic discovery of both intra-level (i.e., within-network) and inter-level (i.e., across-network) causal relationships for root cause localization. REASON consists of Topological Causal Discovery and Individual Causal Discovery. The Topological Causal Discovery component aims to model the fault propagation in order to trace back to the root causes. To achieve this, we propose novel hierarchical graph neural networks to construct interdependent causal networks by modeling both intra-level and inter-level non-linear causal relations. Based on the learned interdependent causal networks, we then leverage random walks with restarts to model the network propagation of a system fault. The Individual Causal Discovery component focuses on capturing abrupt change patterns of a single system entity. This component examines the temporal patterns of each entity's metric data (i.e., time series), and estimates its likelihood of being a root cause based on the Extreme Value theory. Combining the topological and individual causal scores, the top K system entities are identified as root causes. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets with case studies demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework.

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly act as integrated data-science agents, combining abstract reasoning with advanced tool use. Yet the relevant benchmark landscape largely divides into symbolic causal reasoning benchmarks without realistic data analysis or data analysis benchmarks without a principled causal data-generating structure. Furthermore, existing causal evaluation datasets are often restricted to curated examples from existing sources, with diversity coming from limited templatized variations rather than from systematic generation of novel synthetic causal structures. We introduce CausalDS, a benchmark for evaluating causal reasoning in agentic data-science workflows. Each benchmark instance is a scene consisting of a sampled structural causal model (SCM) with generated observational data and an accompanying synthetic natural-language story grounded in a realistic domain. We optionally ground the composition of the benchmark components in empirical distributions obtained from real-world datasets, thus retaining empirical structure while reducing the "causal parrot" risk through completely synthetic generation. From each scene, we then derive tasks spanning all three of Pearl's rungs, with typical data-science prediction tasks appearing as Rung 1. Most tasks include a data science coding component, where the model typically needs to use several tools to arrive at the final answer due to the frequent presence of imperfect observations, which are generated by an observation model. Additionally, recognizing when a question admits no warranted answer and abstaining is treated as a first-class scored outcome. The benchmark thus jointly evaluates symbolic causal reasoning, data science, uncertainty quantification, abstention, and tool use/coding.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently shown great promise in planning and reasoning applications. These tasks demand robust systems, which arguably require a causal understanding of the environment. While LLMs can acquire and reflect common sense causal knowledge from their pretraining data, this information is often incomplete, incorrect, or inapplicable to a specific environment. In contrast, causal representation learning (CRL) focuses on identifying the underlying causal structure within a given environment. We propose a framework that integrates CRLs with LLMs to enable causally-aware reasoning and planning. This framework learns a causal world model, with causal variables linked to natural language expressions. This mapping provides LLMs with a flexible interface to process and generate descriptions of actions and states in text form. Effectively, the causal world model acts as a simulator that the LLM can query and interact with. We evaluate the framework on causal inference and planning tasks across temporal scales and environmental complexities. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach, with the causally-aware method outperforming LLM-based reasoners, especially for longer planning horizons.

The traditional i.i.d.-based learning paradigm faces inherent challenges in addressing causal relationships, which has become increasingly evident with the rise of applications in causal representation learning. Our understanding of causality naturally requires a perspective as the creator rather than observer, as the ``what...if'' questions only hold within the possible world we conceive. The traditional perspective limits capturing dynamic causal outcomes and leads to compensatory efforts such as the reliance on hidden confounders. This paper lays the groundwork for the new perspective, which enables the relation-first modeling paradigm for causality. Also, it introduces the Relation-Indexed Representation Learning (RIRL) as a practical implementation, supported by experiments that validate its efficacy.

Fine-tuning is the primary mechanism for adapting foundation models to downstream tasks; however, standard approaches largely optimize task objectives in isolation and do not account for secondary yet critical alignment objectives (e.g., safety and hallucination avoidance). As a result, downstream fine-tuning can degrade alignment and fail to correct pre-existing misaligned behavior. We propose an alignment-aware fine-tuning framework that integrates feedback from an external alignment signal through policy-gradient-based regularization. Our method introduces an adaptive gating mechanism that dynamically balances supervised and alignment-driven gradients on a per-sample basis, prioritizing uncertain or misaligned cases while allowing well-aligned examples to follow standard supervised updates. The framework further learns abstention behavior for fully misaligned inputs, incorporating conservative responses directly into the fine-tuned model. Experiments on general and domain-specific instruction-tuning benchmarks demonstrate consistent reductions in harmful and hallucinated outputs without sacrificing downstream task performance. Additional analyses show robustness to adversarial fine-tuning, prompt-based attacks, and unsafe initializations, establishing adaptively gated alignment optimization as an effective approach for alignment-preserving and alignment-recovering model adaptation.

Recent advances in reasoning models and agentic AI systems have led to an increased reliance on diverse external information. However, this shift introduces input contexts that are inherently noisy, a reality that current sanitized benchmarks fail to capture. We introduce NoisyBench, a comprehensive benchmark that systematically evaluates model robustness across 11 datasets in RAG, reasoning, alignment, and tool-use tasks against diverse noise types, including random documents, irrelevant chat histories, and hard negative distractors. Our evaluation reveals a catastrophic performance drop of up to 80% in state-of-the-art models when faced with contextual distractors. Crucially, we find that agentic workflows often amplify these errors by over-trusting noisy tool outputs, and distractors can trigger emergent misalignment even without adversarial intent. We find that prompting, context engineering, SFT, and outcome-reward only RL fail to ensure robustness; in contrast, our proposed Rationale-Aware Reward (RARE) significantly strengthens resilience by incentivizing the identification of helpful information within noise. Finally, we uncover an inverse scaling trend where increased test-time computation leads to worse performance in noisy settings and demonstrate via attention visualization that models disproportionately focus on distractor tokens, providing vital insights for building the next generation of robust, reasoning-capable agents.

Reasoning in large language models (LLMs) tends to produce substantially longer token generation sequences than simpler language modeling tasks. This extended generation length reflects the multi-step, compositional nature of reasoning and is often correlated with higher solution accuracy. From an efficiency perspective, longer token generation exacerbates the inherently sequential and memory-bound decoding phase of LLMs. However, not all parts of this expensive reasoning process are equally difficult to generate. We leverage this observation by offloading only the most challenging parts of the reasoning process to a larger, more capable model, while performing most of the generation with a smaller, more efficient model; furthermore, we teach the smaller model to identify these difficult segments and independently trigger offloading when needed. To enable this behavior, we annotate difficult segments across 18k reasoning traces from the OpenR1-Math-220k chain-of-thought (CoT) dataset. We then apply supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning fine-tuning (RLFT) to a 1.5B-parameter reasoning model, training it to learn to offload the most challenging parts of its own reasoning process to a larger model. This approach improves AIME24 reasoning accuracy by 24% and 28.3% while offloading 1.35% and 5% of the generated tokens respectively. We open-source our SplitReason model, data, code and logs.

Recent work on neural algorithmic reasoning has investigated the reasoning capabilities of neural networks, effectively demonstrating they can learn to execute classical algorithms on unseen data coming from the train distribution. However, the performance of existing neural reasoners significantly degrades on out-of-distribution (OOD) test data, where inputs have larger sizes. In this work, we make an important observation: there are many different inputs for which an algorithm will perform certain intermediate computations identically. This insight allows us to develop data augmentation procedures that, given an algorithm's intermediate trajectory, produce inputs for which the target algorithm would have exactly the same next trajectory step. Then, we employ a causal framework to design a corresponding self-supervised objective, and we prove that it improves the OOD generalisation capabilities of the reasoner. We evaluate our method on the CLRS algorithmic reasoning benchmark, where we show up to 3times improvements on the OOD test data.

Training on large amounts of rationales (i.e., CoT Fine-tuning) is effective at improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). However, acquiring human-authored rationales or augmenting rationales from proprietary models is costly and not scalable. In this paper, we study the problem of whether LLMs could self-improve their reasoning capabilities. To this end, we propose Self-Explore, where the LLM is tasked to explore the first wrong step (i.e., the first pit) within the rationale and use such signals as fine-grained rewards for further improvement. On the GSM8K and MATH test set, Self-Explore achieves 11.57% and 2.89% improvement on average across three LLMs compared to supervised fine-tuning (SFT). Our code is available at https://github.com/hbin0701/Self-Explore.

Recent works have shown that chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting can elicit language models to solve complex reasoning tasks, step-by-step. However, prompt-based CoT methods are dependent on very large models such as GPT-3 175B which are prohibitive to deploy at scale. In this paper, we use these large models as reasoning teachers to enable complex reasoning in smaller models and reduce model size requirements by several orders of magnitude. We propose Fine-tune-CoT, a method that generates reasoning samples from very large teacher models to fine-tune smaller models. We evaluate our method on a wide range of public models and complex tasks. We find that Fine-tune-CoT enables substantial reasoning capability in small models, far outperforming prompt-based baselines and even the teacher model in many tasks. Additionally, we extend our method by leveraging the teacher model's ability to generate multiple distinct rationales for each original sample. Enriching the fine-tuning data with such diverse reasoning results in a substantial performance boost across datasets, even for very small models. We conduct ablations and sample studies to understand the emergence of reasoning capabilities of student models. Our code implementation and data are available at https://github.com/itsnamgyu/reasoning-teacher.

Understanding and manipulating the causal generation mechanisms in language models is essential for controlling their behavior. Previous work has primarily relied on techniques such as representation surgery -- e.g., model ablations or manipulation of linear subspaces tied to specific concepts -- to intervene on these models. To understand the impact of interventions precisely, it is useful to examine counterfactuals -- e.g., how a given sentence would have appeared had it been generated by the model following a specific intervention. We highlight that counterfactual reasoning is conceptually distinct from interventions, as articulated in Pearl's causal hierarchy. Based on this observation, we propose a framework for generating true string counterfactuals by reformulating language models as Generalized Structural-equation. Models using the Gumbel-max trick. This allows us to model the joint distribution over original strings and their counterfactuals resulting from the same instantiation of the sampling noise. We develop an algorithm based on hindsight Gumbel sampling that allows us to infer the latent noise variables and generate counterfactuals of observed strings. Our experiments demonstrate that the approach produces meaningful counterfactuals while at the same time showing that commonly used intervention techniques have considerable undesired side effects.

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

While interpretability research has shed light on some internal algorithms utilized by transformer-based LLMs, reasoning in natural language, with its deep contextuality and ambiguity, defies easy categorization. As a result, formulating clear and motivating questions for circuit analysis that rely on well-defined in-domain and out-of-domain examples required for causal interventions is challenging. Although significant work has investigated circuits for specific tasks, such as indirect object identification (IOI), deciphering natural language reasoning through circuits remains difficult due to its inherent complexity. In this work, we take initial steps to characterize causal reasoning in LLMs by analyzing clear-cut cause-and-effect sentences like "I opened an umbrella because it started raining," where causal interventions may be possible through carefully crafted scenarios using GPT-2 small. Our findings indicate that causal syntax is localized within the first 2-3 layers, while certain heads in later layers exhibit heightened sensitivity to nonsensical variations of causal sentences. This suggests that models may infer reasoning by (1) detecting syntactic cues and (2) isolating distinct heads in the final layers that focus on semantic relationships.

Autoencoders have been used for finding interpretable and disentangled features underlying neural network representations in both image and text domains. While the efficacy and pitfalls of such methods are well-studied in vision, there is a lack of corresponding results, both qualitative and quantitative, for the text domain. We aim to address this gap by training sparse autoencoders (SAEs) on a synthetic testbed of formal languages. Specifically, we train SAEs on the hidden representations of models trained on formal languages (Dyck-2, Expr, and English PCFG) under a wide variety of hyperparameter settings, finding interpretable latents often emerge in the features learned by our SAEs. However, similar to vision, we find performance turns out to be highly sensitive to inductive biases of the training pipeline. Moreover, we show latents correlating to certain features of the input do not always induce a causal impact on model's computation. We thus argue that causality has to become a central target in SAE training: learning of causal features should be incentivized from the ground-up. Motivated by this, we propose and perform preliminary investigations for an approach that promotes learning of causally relevant features in our formal language setting.

Recent advances in vision-language reasoning underscore the importance of thinking with images, where models actively ground their reasoning in visual evidence. Yet, prevailing frameworks treat visual actions as optional tools, boosting metrics but leaving reasoning ungrounded and crops ineffective. This gap gives rise to the illusion of thinking with images: models seem visually grounded but rely on context-agnostic actions that neither refine perception nor guide reasoning toward correct answers. We address this problem by reframing visual actions as core reasoning primitives rather than optional tools, which we term visual rationalization, the visual analogue of textual Chain-of-Thought. Building on this insight, we propose Visual Rationale Learning (ViRL), an end-to-end paradigm that grounds training in the visual rationale itself. ViRL integrates (1) Process Supervision with ground-truth rationales, (2) Objective Alignment via step-level reward shaping, and (3) Fine-Grained Credit Assignment to distinguish correct, redundant, and erroneous actions. By ensuring each action contributes meaningfully to the reasoning chain, ViRL enables models to "get the right answer for the right visual reason". Trained purely with end-to-end RL, ViRL achieves state-of-the-art results across benchmarks spanning perception, hallucination, and reasoning. This work establishes visual rationalization as a task-agnostic, process-grounded paradigm for building transparent, verifiable, and trustworthy vision-language models.

Counterfactual image generation presents significant challenges, including preserving identity, maintaining perceptual quality, and ensuring faithfulness to an underlying causal model. While existing auto-encoding frameworks admit semantic latent spaces which can be manipulated for causal control, they struggle with scalability and fidelity. Advancements in diffusion models present opportunities for improving counterfactual image editing, having demonstrated state-of-the-art visual quality, human-aligned perception and representation learning capabilities. Here, we present a suite of diffusion-based causal mechanisms, introducing the notions of spatial, semantic and dynamic abduction. We propose a general framework that integrates semantic representations into diffusion models through the lens of Pearlian causality to edit images via a counterfactual reasoning process. To our knowledge, this is the first work to consider high-level semantic identity preservation for diffusion counterfactuals and to demonstrate how semantic control enables principled trade-offs between faithful causal control and identity preservation.

Neural language models (LMs) have achieved impressive results on various language-based reasoning tasks by utilizing latent knowledge encoded in their own pretrained parameters. To make this reasoning process more explicit, recent works retrieve a rationalizing LM's internal knowledge by training or prompting it to generate free-text rationales, which can be used to guide task predictions made by either the same LM or a separate reasoning LM. However, rationalizing LMs require expensive rationale annotation and/or computation, without any assurance that their generated rationales improve LM task performance or faithfully reflect LM decision-making. In this paper, we propose PINTO, an LM pipeline that rationalizes via prompt-based learning, and learns to faithfully reason over rationales via counterfactual regularization. First, PINTO maps out a suitable reasoning process for the task input by prompting a frozen rationalizing LM to generate a free-text rationale. Second, PINTO's reasoning LM is fine-tuned to solve the task using the generated rationale as context, while regularized to output less confident predictions when the rationale is perturbed. Across four datasets, we show that PINTO significantly improves the generalization ability of the reasoning LM, yielding higher performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets. Also, we find that PINTO's rationales are more faithful to its task predictions than those generated by competitive baselines.

We argue that progress toward AGI is theory limited rather than data or scale limited. Building on the critical rationalism of Popper and Deutsch, we challenge the Platonic Representation Hypothesis. Observationally equivalent worlds can diverge under interventions, so observational adequacy alone cannot guarantee interventional competence. We begin by laying foundations, definitions of knowledge, learning, intelligence, counterfactual competence and AGI, and then analyze the limits of observational learning that motivate an error centric shift. We recast the problem as three questions about how explicit and implicit errors evolve under an agent's actions, which errors are unreachable within a fixed hypothesis space, and how conjecture and criticism expand that space. From these questions we propose Causal Mechanics, a mechanisms first program in which hypothesis space change is a first class operation and probabilistic structure is used when useful rather than presumed. We advance structural principles that make error discovery and correction tractable, including a differential Locality and Autonomy Principle for modular interventions, a gauge invariant form of Independent Causal Mechanisms for separability, and the Compositional Autonomy Principle for analogy preservation, together with actionable diagnostics. The aim is a scaffold for systems that can convert unreachable errors into reachable ones and correct them.

Recent advances in large language models have demonstrated that Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) with Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning data distilled from large reasoning models (e.g., DeepSeek R1) can effectively transfer reasoning capabilities to non-reasoning models. However, models fine-tuned with this approach inherit the "overthinking" problem from teacher models, producing verbose and redundant reasoning chains during inference. To address this challenge, we propose Long-Short Chain-of-Thought Mixture Supervised Fine-Tuning (LS-Mixture SFT), which combines long CoT reasoning dataset with their short counterparts obtained through structure-preserved rewriting. Our experiments demonstrate that models trained using the LS-Mixture SFT method, compared to those trained with direct SFT, achieved an average accuracy improvement of 2.3% across various benchmarks while substantially reducing model response length by approximately 47.61%. This work offers an approach to endow non-reasoning models with reasoning capabilities through supervised fine-tuning while avoiding the inherent overthinking problems inherited from teacher models, thereby enabling efficient reasoning in the fine-tuned models.

The success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has sparked interest in various agentic applications. A key hypothesis is that LLMs, leveraging common sense and Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning, can effectively explore and efficiently solve complex domains. However, LLM agents have been found to suffer from sub-optimal exploration and the knowing-doing gap, the inability to effectively act on knowledge present in the model. In this work, we systematically study why LLMs perform sub-optimally in decision-making scenarios. In particular, we closely examine three prevalent failure modes: greediness, frequency bias, and the knowing-doing gap. We propose mitigation of these shortcomings by fine-tuning via Reinforcement Learning (RL) on self-generated CoT rationales. Our experiments across multi-armed bandits, contextual bandits, and Tic-tac-toe, demonstrate that RL fine-tuning enhances the decision-making abilities of LLMs by increasing exploration and narrowing the knowing-doing gap. Finally, we study both classic exploration mechanisms, such as epsilon-greedy, and LLM-specific approaches, such as self-correction and self-consistency, to enable more effective fine-tuning of LLMs for decision-making.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown state-of-the-art performance in a variety of tasks, including arithmetic and reasoning; however, to gauge the intellectual capabilities of LLMs, causal reasoning has become a reliable proxy for validating a general understanding of the mechanics and intricacies of the world similar to humans. Previous works in natural language processing (NLP) have either focused on open-ended causal reasoning via causal commonsense reasoning (CCR) or framed a symbolic representation-based question answering for theoretically backed-up analysis via a causal inference engine. The former adds an advantage of real-world grounding but lacks theoretically backed-up analysis/validation, whereas the latter is far from real-world grounding. In this work, we bridge this gap by proposing the COLD (Causal reasOning in cLosed Daily activities) framework, which is built upon human understanding of daily real-world activities to reason about the causal nature of events. We show that the proposed framework facilitates the creation of enormous causal queries (~ 9 million) and comes close to the mini-turing test, simulating causal reasoning to evaluate the understanding of a daily real-world task. We evaluate multiple LLMs on the created causal queries and find that causal reasoning is challenging even for activities trivial to humans. We further explore (the causal reasoning abilities of LLMs) using the backdoor criterion to determine the causal strength between events.

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

Causal effect estimation from observational data is fundamental across various applications. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from dozens of specialized methods demands substantial manual effort and domain expertise. We present CausalPFN, a single transformer that amortizes this workflow: trained once on a large library of simulated data-generating processes that satisfy ignorability, it infers causal effects for new observational datasets out-of-the-box. CausalPFN combines ideas from Bayesian causal inference with the large-scale training protocol of prior-fitted networks (PFNs), learning to map raw observations directly to causal effects without any task-specific adjustment. Our approach achieves superior average performance on heterogeneous and average treatment effect estimation benchmarks (IHDP, Lalonde, ACIC). Moreover, it shows competitive performance for real-world policy making on uplift modeling tasks. CausalPFN provides calibrated uncertainty estimates to support reliable decision-making based on Bayesian principles. This ready-to-use model does not require any further training or tuning and takes a step toward automated causal inference (https://github.com/vdblm/CausalPFN).

The causal capabilities of large language models (LLMs) are a matter of significant debate, with critical implications for the use of LLMs in societally impactful domains such as medicine, science, law, and policy. We conduct a "behavorial" study of LLMs to benchmark their capability in generating causal arguments. Across a wide range of tasks, we find that LLMs can generate text corresponding to correct causal arguments with high probability, surpassing the best-performing existing methods. Algorithms based on GPT-3.5 and 4 outperform existing algorithms on a pairwise causal discovery task (97%, 13 points gain), counterfactual reasoning task (92%, 20 points gain) and event causality (86% accuracy in determining necessary and sufficient causes in vignettes). We perform robustness checks across tasks and show that the capabilities cannot be explained by dataset memorization alone, especially since LLMs generalize to novel datasets that were created after the training cutoff date. That said, LLMs exhibit unpredictable failure modes, and we discuss the kinds of errors that may be improved and what are the fundamental limits of LLM-based answers. Overall, by operating on the text metadata, LLMs bring capabilities so far understood to be restricted to humans, such as using collected knowledge to generate causal graphs or identifying background causal context from natural language. As a result, LLMs may be used by human domain experts to save effort in setting up a causal analysis, one of the biggest impediments to the widespread adoption of causal methods. Given that LLMs ignore the actual data, our results also point to a fruitful research direction of developing algorithms that combine LLMs with existing causal techniques. Code and datasets are available at https://github.com/py-why/pywhy-llm.

Context faithfulness is essential for reliable reasoning in context-dependent scenarios. However, large language models often struggle to ground their outputs in the provided context, resulting in irrelevant responses. Inspired by the emergent expert specialization observed in mixture-of-experts architectures, this work investigates whether certain experts exhibit specialization in context utilization, offering a potential pathway toward targeted optimization for improved context faithfulness. To explore this, we propose Router Lens, a method that accurately identifies context-faithful experts. Our analysis reveals that these experts progressively amplify attention to relevant contextual information, thereby enhancing context grounding. Building on this insight, we introduce Context-faithful Expert Fine-Tuning (CEFT), a lightweight optimization approach that selectively fine-tunes context-faithful experts. Experiments across a wide range of benchmarks and models demonstrate that CEFT matches or surpasses the performance of full fine-tuning while being significantly more efficient.

Effective root cause analysis (RCA) is vital for swiftly restoring services, minimizing losses, and ensuring the smooth operation and management of complex systems. Previous data-driven RCA methods, particularly those employing causal discovery techniques, have primarily focused on constructing dependency or causal graphs for backtracking the root causes. However, these methods often fall short as they rely solely on data from a single modality, thereby resulting in suboptimal solutions. In this work, we propose Mulan, a unified multi-modal causal structure learning method for root cause localization. We leverage a log-tailored language model to facilitate log representation learning, converting log sequences into time-series data. To explore intricate relationships across different modalities, we propose a contrastive learning-based approach to extract modality-invariant and modality-specific representations within a shared latent space. Additionally, we introduce a novel key performance indicator-aware attention mechanism for assessing modality reliability and co-learning a final causal graph. Finally, we employ random walk with restart to simulate system fault propagation and identify potential root causes. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of our proposed framework.

Large amounts of training data are one of the major reasons for the high performance of state-of-the-art NLP models. But what exactly in the training data causes a model to make a certain prediction? We seek to answer this question by providing a language for describing how training data influences predictions, through a causal framework. Importantly, our framework bypasses the need to retrain expensive models and allows us to estimate causal effects based on observational data alone. Addressing the problem of extracting factual knowledge from pretrained language models (PLMs), we focus on simple data statistics such as co-occurrence counts and show that these statistics do influence the predictions of PLMs, suggesting that such models rely on shallow heuristics. Our causal framework and our results demonstrate the importance of studying datasets and the benefits of causality for understanding NLP models.

We present a conditional text generation framework that posits sentential expressions of possible causes and effects. This framework depends on two novel resources we develop in the course of this work: a very large-scale collection of English sentences expressing causal patterns CausalBank; and a refinement over previous work on constructing large lexical causal knowledge graphs Cause Effect Graph. Further, we extend prior work in lexically-constrained decoding to support disjunctive positive constraints. Human assessment confirms that our approach gives high-quality and diverse outputs. Finally, we use CausalBank to perform continued training of an encoder supporting a recent state-of-the-art model for causal reasoning, leading to a 3-point improvement on the COPA challenge set, with no change in model architecture.