Daily Papers

LLMs cannot forget the way we delete a file. Strangely, we are asked to remove something that was never put anywhere in particular. What the model took from a piece of text is now smeared across billions of weights. Existing methods rewrite all of them to change one thing, and none of them say which part produced that change. To address this, we introduce Causal Routing for Unlearning (CRU) by asking where the concept is expressed in the model and suppressing only that part. One untrained forward pass over the forget set ranks neurons by how their activations vary. Then, small routing modules on those neurons gate and suppress only the concepts that need to be forgotten. In CRU, the base model is frozen, and any change in behavior is caused only by the gated neurons; hence, why the routing is causal. Due to our parameter efficiency (only ~0.01% as many parameters as the base model), unlearning a concept costs 14 GiB, whereas the baselines require 71 GiB. On TOFU, CRU is indistinguishable from the retained model (p > 0.05, KS test) and is never Pareto-dominated, whereas every compared baseline matches its forgetting on the larger-forget batches only by collapsing utility. On RWKU, it achieves an adversarial-probe recall of 0.052, compared to 0.250 for the strongest baseline, meaning the knowledge is gone, not merely harder to reach. Thus, deciding on the intervention at query time, rather than fixing it beforehand, is the axis along which we argue that unlearning should proceed.

Learned-memory methods store information in an explicit table and consume it through a separate reader, allowing addressing, storage, and reading to be modified independently. We study whether useful memory can also be generated rather than only retrieved. MemoryAthena uses three pathways: direct Engram retrieval (E), generation from retrieved Engram cues (GE), and generation from causal backbone states without consulting the memory table (GH). Generated memory is conditionally useful: it can complement E in one context but interfere with it in another. MemoryAthena therefore treats E as an anchor and learns when a generated representation should intervene. With the backbone, memory, generators, and readers frozen, a lightweight causal routing head is trained from counterfactual future-token likelihood advantages of GE and GH relative to E. At inference time, an admitted candidate modifies the E residual through bounded interpolation, while rejection recovers the direct pathway exactly. On question answering, MemoryAthena raises the five-task average from 37.65 to 39.28 over the direct pathway of the same checkpoint, while the six-task general-NLP average increases from 76.73 to 79.13. The complete memory-side system contains approximately 201M parameters, excluding the frozen backbone. Further analyses show complementary strengths among E, GE, and GH across tasks and inputs. These results support generated memory as a selective correction to direct retrieval and highlight routing when, which, and how strongly to intervene as the central challenge.

Large language models (LLMs) are typically trained on fixed snapshots of the web, which means that their knowledge becomes stale and their predictions risk temporal leakage: relying on information that lies in the future relative to a query. We tackle this problem by pre-training from scratch a set of GPT-style experts on disjoint two-year slices of a 2013-2024 corpus and combining them through TiMoE, a Time-aware Mixture of Language Experts. At inference time, TiMoE masks all experts whose training window ends after the query timestamp and merges the remaining log-probabilities in a shared space, guaranteeing strict causal validity while retaining the breadth of multi-period knowledge. We also release TSQA, a 10k-question benchmark whose alternatives are explicitly labelled as past, future or irrelevant, allowing fine-grained measurement of temporal hallucinations. Experiments on eight standard NLP tasks plus TSQA show that a co-adapted TiMoE variant matches or exceeds the best single-period expert and cuts future-knowledge errors by up to 15%. Our results demonstrate that modular, time-segmented pre-training paired with causal routing is a simple yet effective path toward LLMs that stay chronologically grounded without sacrificing general performance much. We open source our code at TiMoE (Github): https://github.com/epfml/TiMoE

Long video generation is fundamentally a long context memory problem: models must retain and retrieve salient events across a long range without collapsing or drifting. However, scaling diffusion transformers to generate long-context videos is fundamentally limited by the quadratic cost of self-attention, which makes memory and computation intractable and difficult to optimize for long sequences. We recast long-context video generation as an internal information retrieval task and propose a simple, learnable sparse attention routing module, Mixture of Contexts (MoC), as an effective long-term memory retrieval engine. In MoC, each query dynamically selects a few informative chunks plus mandatory anchors (caption, local windows) to attend to, with causal routing that prevents loop closures. As we scale the data and gradually sparsify the routing, the model allocates compute to salient history, preserving identities, actions, and scenes over minutes of content. Efficiency follows as a byproduct of retrieval (near-linear scaling), which enables practical training and synthesis, and the emergence of memory and consistency at the scale of minutes.

LLM routing aims to select the most appropriate model for each query, balancing competing performance metrics such as accuracy and cost across a pool of language models. Prior approaches typically adopt a decoupled strategy, where the metrics are first predicted and the model is then selected based on these estimates. This setup is prone to compounding errors and often relies on full-feedback data, where each query is evaluated by all candidate models, which is costly to obtain and maintain in practice. In contrast, we learn from observational data, which records only the outcome of the model actually deployed. We propose a causal end-to-end framework that learns routing policies by minimizing decision-making regret from observational data. To enable efficient optimization, we introduce two theoretically grounded surrogate objectives: a classification-based upper bound, and a softmax-weighted regret approximation shown to recover the optimal policy at convergence. We further extend our framework to handle heterogeneous cost preferences via an interval-conditioned architecture. Experiments on public benchmarks show that our method outperforms existing baselines, achieving state-of-the-art performance across different embedding models.

Machine unlearning, which enables a model to forget specific data, is crucial for ensuring data privacy and model reliability. However, its effectiveness can be severely undermined in real-world scenarios where models learn unintended biases from spurious correlations within the data. This paper investigates the unique challenges of unlearning from such biased models. We identify a novel phenomenon we term ``shortcut unlearning," where models exhibit an ``easy to learn, yet hard to forget" tendency. Specifically, models struggle to forget easily-learned, bias-aligned samples; instead of forgetting the class attribute, they unlearn the bias attribute, which can paradoxically improve accuracy on the class intended to be forgotten. To address this, we propose CUPID, a new unlearning framework inspired by the observation that samples with different biases exhibit distinct loss landscape sharpness. Our method first partitions the forget set into causal- and bias-approximated subsets based on sample sharpness, then disentangles model parameters into causal and bias pathways, and finally performs a targeted update by routing refined causal and bias gradients to their respective pathways. Extensive experiments on biased datasets including Waterbirds, BAR, and Biased NICO++ demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art forgetting performance and effectively mitigates the shortcut unlearning problem.

Mixture-of-Experts layers achieve compute efficiency through weight sparsity: each token activates only a subset of experts. Data sparsity, where each expert processes only a subset of tokens, offers a complementary axis. Expert-choice routing implements data sparsity directly but violates causality in autoregressive models, creating train-inference mismatch. We recover data sparsity within causal token-choice MoE by leveraging zero-compute (null) experts within the routing pool. When a token routes to null experts, those slots consume no compute. The standard load balancing objective trains the model to uniformly use all experts (real and null) therefore creating data sparsity in expectation without the causality violations. We evaluate on vision-language model training, where data heterogeneity is pronounced: vision encoders produce many low-information tokens while text tokens are denser. At matched expected FLOPs, composing weight and data sparsity yields a more compute-efficient frontier than weight sparsity alone, with gains in training loss and downstream performance. The model learns implicit modality-aware allocation, routing vision tokens to null experts more aggressively than text, without explicit modality routing.

Large language model (LLM) routers improve the efficiency of multi-model systems by directing each query to the most appropriate model while leveraging the diverse strengths of heterogeneous LLMs. Most existing approaches frame routing as a classification problem based solely on the input query. While this reduces overhead by avoiding inference across all models, it overlooks valuable information that could be gleaned from potential outputs and fails to capture implicit intent or contextual nuances that often emerge only during response generation. These limitations can result in suboptimal routing decisions, particularly for complex or ambiguous queries that require deeper semantic understanding. To address this challenge, we propose Lookahead, a routing framework that "foresees" potential model outputs by predicting their latent representations and uses these predictions to guide model selection, thus enabling more informed routing without full inference. Within this framework, we implement two approaches based on causal and masked language models. Empirical evaluations across seven public benchmarks - spanning instruction following, mathematical reasoning, and code generation - show that Lookahead consistently outperforms existing routing baselines, achieving an average performance gain of 7.7% over the state-of-the-art. Our code is available at https://github.com/huangcb01/lookahead-routing.

Sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures employ increasingly sophisticated routing mechanisms -- learned routers, multi-hop trajectories, token-dependent gating. We ask: does routing topology actually determine language modeling quality? We build a geometric MoE (ST-MoE) using cosine-similarity routing against learned centroids in a low-dimensional space (d_{space} = 64), requiring 80% fewer routing parameters than standard linear routers. Through 62 controlled experiments on WikiText-103 at 76--84M parameters trained to convergence (50K steps, 1.64B tokens), we find that routing topology does not determine asymptotic perplexity (PPL): five cosine-routing variants are statistically equivalent within a 1-PPL margin (Two One-Sided Tests [TOST], p < 0.05 for all 10 pairwise comparisons; 15 runs across 3 seeds, observed range 33.93--34.72). The finding extends to hash, random-fixed, and top-1 routing (single-seed; graceful 1.1--2.2 PPL degradation) and replicates on OpenWebText (0.03 PPL gap, 6 runs, 3 seeds each). A standard linear router with 5.3times more routing parameters reaches PPL 32.76, but iso-parameter cosine routing closes 67% of this gap -- the true mechanism advantage is sim1.2%. The mechanistic explanation is convergent redundancy: multi-hop updates are collinear (cos(Δh_0, Δh_1) = 0.805), implementing magnitude amplification rather than compositional reasoning; a single learnable scalar replicates multi-hop performance. As a practical payoff, zero-shot relative-norm halting saves 25% of MoE FLOPs at +0.12% PPL. Expert-level specialization and causal controllability -- which coexist with topology-level equifinality -- are explored in a companion paper.

Token-choice Mixture-of-Experts (TC-MoE) routes each token to a fixed number of experts, limiting dynamic computation allocation and requiring auxiliary losses to maintain load balance. We propose Expert Threshold (ET) routing, where each expert maintains an exponential moving average (EMA) threshold estimated from the global token distribution. At both training and inference, each token is independently routed to an expert if its score exceeds the expert's threshold, enabling dynamic computation allocation while achieving load balance without auxiliary losses. This fully causal mechanism eliminates dependence on other tokens in the batch, making it well-suited for autoregressive language modeling. In pretraining experiments scaling to 2.4B parameters on FineWeb-Edu, ET achieves 0.067 lower cross-entropy loss than TC-MoE, equivalent to reaching the same performance with 1.6times fewer tokens.

We investigate the temporal concatenation of sub-policies in Markov Decision Processes (MDP) with time-varying reward functions. We introduce General Dijkstra Search (GDS), and prove that globally optimal goal-reaching policies can be recovered through temporal composition of intermediate optimal sub-policies. Motivated by the "search, select, update" principle underlying GDS, we propose Dynamic Latent Routing (DLR), a language-model post-training method that jointly learns discrete latent codes, routing policies, and model parameters through dynamic search in a single training stage. In low-data fine-tuning settings, DLR matches or outperforms supervised fine-tuning across four datasets and six models, achieving a mean gain of +6.6 percentage points, while prior discrete-latent baselines consistently underperform SFT. Mechanistic analyses and targeted code ablations show that DLR learns structured routing behaviors with distinct causal roles.

Vision-language models must reconcile visual evidence with memorized world knowledge when the two conflict. How they resolve this conflict shapes the reliability of multimodal systems, yet prior work characterizes it behaviorally without a component-level causal account. We combine activation patching across three granularities (residual stream, attention heads, and MLP sublayers) with model-component ablation studies and mechanistic analysis. Across three VLM families, we find that visual grounding emerges by default, whereas prior grounding depends on a small set of causally necessary attention heads (2.5-4.8%) concentrated in the second half of the network. These heads enable answers from stored world knowledge (e.g., "red" for a strawberry) despite conflicting visual input. Ablating them flips predictions from knowledge-grounded to visually grounded answers in 68-96% of cases under prior-knowledge prompts, but changes only 0.8-7.5% of visually grounded predictions, establishing an asymmetric causal structure. The identified heads decompose into routing heads, which modulate information flow, and writing heads, which directly project answer tokens into the residual stream. This structure is consistent across model families and scales, revealing a sparse causal circuit underlying perception-knowledge conflict in VLMs.

Domain expertise enhances judgment within boundaries but creates systematic vulnerabilities specifically at borders. We term this Transitive Expert Error (TEE), distinct from Dunning-Kruger effects, requiring calibrated expertise as precondition. Mechanisms enabling reliable within-domain judgment become liabilities when structural similarity masks causal divergence. Two core mechanisms operate: structural similarity bias causes experts to overweight surface features (shared vocabulary, patterns, formal structure) while missing causal architecture differences; authority persistence maintains confidence across competence boundaries through social reinforcement and metacognitive failures (experts experience no subjective uncertainty as pattern recognition operates smoothly on familiar-seeming inputs.) These mechanism intensify under three conditions: shared vocabulary masking divergent processes, social pressure for immediate judgment, and delayed feedback. These findings extend to AI routing architectures (MoE systems, multi-model orchestration, tool-using agents, RAG systems) exhibiting routing-induced failures (wrong specialist selected) and coverage-induced failures (no appropriate specialist exists). Both produce a hallucination phenotype: confident, coherent, structurally plausible but causally incorrect outputs at domain boundaries. In human systems where mechanisms are cognitive black boxes; AI architectures make them explicit and addressable. We propose interventions: multi-expert activation with disagreement detection (router level), boundary-aware calibration (specialist level), and coverage gap detection (training level). TEE has detectable signatures (routing patterns, confidence-accuracy dissociations, domain-inappropriate content) enabling monitoring and mitigation. What remains intractable in human cognition becomes addressable through architectural design.

Automated market maker (AMM) fee rules are often evaluated by liquidity-provider (LP) welfare, but that objective mixes fee revenue, adverse-selection loss (loss-versus-rebalancing, LVR), routing response, and liquidity supply. Fixed-fee Uniswap v3 history cannot separate these channels or identify counterfactual trader-facing dynamic-fee rules. Real fee-related variation nonetheless exists: the Uniswap protocol-fee switch cut LP take-rates with tier-differentiated intensity while leaving trader-facing fees unchanged. Using a pre-specified matched-overlap event-study difference-in-differences design, we estimate the liquidity-supply response to take-rate cuts, the kernel K_L that simulator-based fee-controller evaluations routinely freeze, while reconstructing treatment, event time, unit roles, and outcomes from public logs into a frozen, hash-checked panel before any estimate. We detect no large short-run average response in active liquidity or local depth; LP participation and composition, more precisely estimated, likewise show none, so the result is a non-detection at the design's resolution rather than a precise zero. Token-1 volume and native fee income fail the parallel-trends gate and are reported descriptively. A channel-admissibility audit delimits the estimand: the LP-side response K_L is design-based, while trader-facing dynamic-fee protection is a model-conditioned boundary, not a second estimand.

Modality following serves as the capacity of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) to selectively utilize multimodal contexts based on user instructions. It is fundamental to ensuring safety and reliability in real-world deployments. However, the underlying mechanisms governing this decision-making process remain poorly understood. In this paper, we investigate its working mechanism through an information flow lens. Our findings reveal that instruction tokens function as structural anchors for modality arbitration: Shallow attention layers perform non-selective information transfer, routing multimodal cues to these anchors as a latent buffer; Modality competition is resolved within deep attention layers guided by the instruction intent, while MLP layers exhibit semantic inertia, acting as an adversarial force. Furthermore, we identify a sparse set of specialized attention heads that drive this arbitration. Causal interventions demonstrate that manipulating a mere 5% of these critical heads can decrease the modality-following ratio by 60% through blocking, or increase it by 60% through targeted amplification of failed samples. Our work provides a substantial step toward model transparency and offers a principled framework for the orchestration of multimodal information in MLLMs.

Causal discovery from observational tabular data remains fundamentally challenging, primarily due to the heterogeneity of underlying causal mechanisms and the high-dimensional combinatorial search space of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs). In this paper, we propose DAG-FM, a novel foundation model architecture that amortizes causal discovery. Unlike direct matrix prediction, DAG-FM decomposes the causal discovery process into two auto-regressive stages using two specialized Transformer-based sub-modules: a leaf-node predictor and a parent-node predictor. To effectively model complex row-column interactions, we adopt a robust tabular interaction block to output feature-wise representations. Crucially, to handle diverse and unknown Functional Causal Model (FCM) assumptions in real-world scenarios, we introduce Mixture-of-Leaf-Experts (MoLE), allowing the model to dynamically route and adapt to identifiable mechanism families. Through an iterative inference algorithm, DAG-FM seamlessly extracts causal orderings and constructs valid DAGs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DAG-FM achieves state-of-the-art performance on both synthetic benchmarks and complex real-world datasets, significantly outperforming traditional classical algorithms and recent foundation models in both accuracy and scalability.

Cable routing requires coordinated control of global cable topology and changing local contacts. We present CableVLA, an end-to-end multimodal vision-language-action framework that converts simulation-privileged supervision into deployable cable-topology and tactile representations. TopoHead distills node-level physics and current and future cable-topology information into causal visual context for the action expert. TacSense uses complementary frame and taxel branches to learn contact dynamics from resistive arrays, with simulator-derived kinematics and contact events providing supervision beyond the measured force map. A contact gate activates force-tactile residuals that refine the next 8 arm-and-gripper actions of a frozen topology-conditioned policy. Across 345 MuJoCo evaluations, CableVLA improves success from 62.6% for the π_{0.5}-V visual baseline to 84.9%. TacSense achieves pronounced gains in slip-transition recognition over a CNN-LSTM baseline with a similar parameter count, and this advantage persists under frozen-encoder probes. Topology prediction and 57-task tactile evaluations assess representation quality, while policy adaptation studies evaluate downstream control performance. Cross-simulator and real-robot comparisons further examine zero-shot policy transfer under changes in dynamics and sensing.

In causal bandit problems, the action set consists of interventions on variables of a causal graph. Several researchers have recently studied such bandit problems and pointed out their practical applications. However, all existing works rely on a restrictive and impractical assumption that the learner is given full knowledge of the causal graph structure upfront. In this paper, we develop novel causal bandit algorithms without knowing the causal graph. Our algorithms work well for causal trees, causal forests and a general class of causal graphs. The regret guarantees of our algorithms greatly improve upon those of standard multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithms under mild conditions. Lastly, we prove our mild conditions are necessary: without them one cannot do better than standard MAB algorithms.

While LLMs are powerful embedding backbones, their application in training-free settings faces two structural challenges: causal attention restricts early tokens from accessing subsequent context, and the next-token prediction objective biases representations toward generation rather than semantic compression. To address these limitations, we propose KV-Embedding, a framework that activates the latent representation power of frozen LLMs. Our method leverages the observation that the key-value (KV) states of the final token at each layer encode a compressed view of the sequence. By re-routing these states as a prepended prefix, we enable all tokens to access sequence-level context within a single forward pass. To ensure model-agnostic applicability, we introduce an automated layer selection strategy based on intrinsic dimensionality. Evaluations on MTEB across Qwen, Mistral, and Llama backbones show that KV-Embedding outperforms existing training-free baselines by up to 10%, while maintaining robust performance on sequences up to 4,096 tokens. These results demonstrate that internal state manipulation offers an efficient alternative to input modification, and we hope this work encourages further exploration of LLM internals for representation learning.

Latent or continuous chain-of-thought methods replace explicit textual rationales with a number of internal latent steps, but these intermediate computations are difficult to evaluate beyond correlation-based probes. In this paper, we view latent chain-of-thought as a manipulable causal process in representation space by modeling latent steps as variables in a structural causal model (SCM) and analyzing their effects through step-wise do-interventions. We study two representative paradigms (i.e., Coconut and CODI) on both mathematical and general reasoning tasks to investigate three key questions: (1) which steps are causally necessary for correctness and when answers become decidable early; (2) how does influence propagate across steps, and how does this structure compare to explicit CoT; and (3) do intermediate trajectories retain competing answer modes, and how does output-level commitment differ from representational commitment across steps. We find that latent-step budgets behave less like homogeneous extra depth and more like staged functionality with non-local routing, and we identify a persistent gap between early output bias and late representational commitment. These results motivate mode-conditional and stability-aware analyses -- and corresponding training/decoding objectives -- as more reliable tools for interpreting and improving latent reasoning systems. Code is available at https://github.com/J1mL1/causal-latent-cot.

Recent Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models built on pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) require extensive post-training, resulting in high computational overhead that limits scalability and deployment.We propose CogVLA, a Cognition-Aligned Vision-Language-Action framework that leverages instruction-driven routing and sparsification to improve both efficiency and performance. CogVLA draws inspiration from human multimodal coordination and introduces a 3-stage progressive architecture. 1) Encoder-FiLM based Aggregation Routing (EFA-Routing) injects instruction information into the vision encoder to selectively aggregate and compress dual-stream visual tokens, forming a instruction-aware latent representation. 2) Building upon this compact visual encoding, LLM-FiLM based Pruning Routing (LFP-Routing) introduces action intent into the language model by pruning instruction-irrelevant visually grounded tokens, thereby achieving token-level sparsity. 3) To ensure that compressed perception inputs can still support accurate and coherent action generation, we introduce V-L-A Coupled Attention (CAtten), which combines causal vision-language attention with bidirectional action parallel decoding. Extensive experiments on the LIBERO benchmark and real-world robotic tasks demonstrate that CogVLA achieves state-of-the-art performance with success rates of 97.4% and 70.0%, respectively, while reducing training costs by 2.5-fold and decreasing inference latency by 2.8-fold compared to OpenVLA. CogVLA is open-sourced and publicly available at https://github.com/JiuTian-VL/CogVLA.

We propose a novel framework that leverages LLMs for full causal graph discovery. While previous LLM-based methods have used a pairwise query approach, this requires a quadratic number of queries which quickly becomes impractical for larger causal graphs. In contrast, the proposed framework uses a breadth-first search (BFS) approach which allows it to use only a linear number of queries. We also show that the proposed method can easily incorporate observational data when available, to improve performance. In addition to being more time and data-efficient, the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art results on real-world causal graphs of varying sizes. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method in discovering causal relationships, showcasing its potential for broad applicability in causal graph discovery tasks across different domains.

In this paper, the causal bandit problem is investigated, in which the objective is to select an optimal sequence of interventions on nodes in a causal graph. It is assumed that the graph is governed by linear structural equations; it is further assumed that both the causal topology and the distribution of interventions are unknown. By exploiting the causal relationships between the nodes whose signals contribute to the reward, interventions are optimized. First, based on the difference between the two types of graph identification errors (false positives and negatives), a causal graph learning method is proposed, which strongly reduces sample complexity relative to the prior art by learning sub-graphs. Under the assumption of Gaussian exogenous inputs and minimum-mean squared error weight estimation, a new uncertainty bound tailored to the causal bandit problem is derived. This uncertainty bound drives an upper confidence bound based intervention selection to optimize the reward. To cope with non-stationary bandits, a sub-graph change detection mechanism is proposed, with high sample efficiency. Numerical results compare the new methodology to existing schemes and show a substantial performance improvement in both stationary and non-stationary settings. Compared to existing approaches, the proposed scheme takes 67% fewer samples to learn the causal structure and achieves an average reward gain of 85%.

Large Language Model (LLM)-driven Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) have demonstrated strong capability in complex reasoning and tool use, and heterogeneous agent pools further broaden the quality--cost trade-off space. Despite these advances, real-world deployment is often constrained by high inference cost, latency, and limited transparency, which hinders scalable and efficient routing. Existing routing strategies typically rely on expensive LLM-based selectors or static policies, and offer limited controllability for semantic-aware routing under dynamic loads and mixed intents, often resulting in unstable performance and inefficient resource utilization. To address these limitations, we propose AMRO-S, an efficient and interpretable routing framework for Multi-Agent Systems (MAS). AMRO-S models MAS routing as a semantic-conditioned path selection problem, enhancing routing performance through three key mechanisms: First, it leverages a supervised fine-tuned (SFT) small language model for intent inference, providing a low-overhead semantic interface for each query; second, it decomposes routing memory into task-specific pheromone specialists, reducing cross-task interference and optimizing path selection under mixed workloads; finally, it employs a quality-gated asynchronous update mechanism to decouple inference from learning, optimizing routing without increasing latency. Extensive experiments on five public benchmarks and high-concurrency stress tests demonstrate that AMRO-S consistently improves the quality--cost trade-off over strong routing baselines, while providing traceable routing evidence through structured pheromone patterns.

We introduce directional routing, a lightweight mechanism that gives each transformer attention head learned suppression directions controlled by a shared router, at 3.9% parameter cost. We train a 433M-parameter model alongside an identical baseline in a single run, then trace the resulting circuits through mechanistic interpretability. Routing becomes the model's dominant computational pathway. Disabling it collapses factual recall to near-zero probability across all 8 test prompts and drops induction accuracy from 93.4% to 0.0%. Knocking out individual attention heads has negligible effect: the primary mover head's removal actually increases target probability, and induction heads retain 98.6% accuracy without their strongest member. The coordination mechanism is irreplaceable; the components it coordinates are not. The model also self-organizes, without explicit pressure, into two regimes: domain-adaptive routing in early layers and fixed syntactic pruning in late layers, where the least-varying layer is the most critical (+42.6 PPL when disabled). Routing reduces perplexity 31-56% relative to the baseline, though downstream multiple-choice benchmarks do not yet reflect these gains.

Sparsely activated neural networks with conditional computation learn to route their inputs through different "expert" subnetworks, providing a form of modularity that densely activated models lack. Despite their possible benefits, models with learned routing often underperform their parameter-matched densely activated counterparts as well as models that use non-learned heuristic routing strategies. In this paper, we hypothesize that these shortcomings stem from the gradient estimation techniques used to train sparsely activated models that use non-differentiable discrete routing decisions. To address this issue, we introduce Soft Merging of Experts with Adaptive Routing (SMEAR), which avoids discrete routing by using a single "merged" expert constructed via a weighted average of all of the experts' parameters. By routing activations through a single merged expert, SMEAR does not incur a significant increase in computational costs and enables standard gradient-based training. We empirically validate that models using SMEAR outperform models that route based on metadata or learn sparse routing through gradient estimation. Furthermore, we provide qualitative analysis demonstrating that the experts learned via SMEAR exhibit a significant amount of specialization. All of the code used in our experiments is publicly available.

Temporal credit assignment in reinforcement learning is often approached by introducing value estimates at multiple discount factors. A natural next step is to let the actor dynamically route among these temporal heads, using either differentiable attention or heuristic uncertainty weights. This paper argues that such routing can create a numerical shortcut rather than a reliable temporal abstraction. We study this issue in a controlled PPO setting on LunarLander-v2, using the environment as a visual sandbox for diagnosing failure modes. First, we formalize Surrogate Objective Hacking: a differentiable softmax router exposed to the PPO surrogate receives a direct gradient toward advantage heads that are numerically favorable for the current update, even when this routing change does not correspond to improved physical control. Because unnormalized advantages at different discount factors have different effective scales, this creates a scale-discrepancy vulnerability. Second, we identify the Paradox of Temporal Uncertainty in gradient-free error-based routing: short-horizon heads can receive the largest routing share because their prediction targets are easier, even when they are less aligned with delayed task success. As a structural response, we study Target Decoupling: the critic may retain multi-timescale auxiliary heads, but the actor is updated only with the long-horizon advantage. Target Decoupling is not presented as a broad performance booster; in this run set it removes the exploitable actor-side routing pathway and improves the observed worst-seed return. Code is available at https://github.com/ben-dlwlrma/Representation-Over-Routing.

Causal discovery aims to uncover causal structures from data and is fundamental to scientific reasoning and intervention-based decision making. Its evaluation relies heavily on structural causal models (SCMs), which specify a causal graph together with the mechanisms that generate data, yet existing studies differ substantially in graph families, mechanisms, and evaluation protocols. The emergence of causal discovery foundation models (CDFMs) further complicates evaluation: performance may reflect not only causal discovery ability, but also overlap between pretraining environments and test SCMs, making results on fixed synthetic benchmarks difficult to interpret. We introduce CausalArena, a unified and evolvable benchmark for causal discovery under a common protocol. Synthetic SCMs supply controlled breadth over structures and mechanisms; semantic operational SCMs provide human-auditable, semantically grounded environments beyond standard synthetic generators; and formula-grounded SCMs test discovery under explicit scientific mechanisms. Public real-world datasets provide an additional external-validity check. Experiments across classical, neural, and pretrained methods reveal substantial ranking shifts across SCM families and protocols, showing that strong performance in one benchmark regime does not reliably transfer to others. These results highlight benchmark diversity and pretraining--evaluation overlap as central challenges for evaluating causal discovery in the foundation model era.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures have emerged as a leading paradigm for scaling large language models through sparse, routing-based computation. However, this design introduces a new attack surface: the routing mechanism that determines which experts process each input. Prior work shows that manipulating routing can bypass safety alignment, but existing attacks require model modification and thus apply only to locally deployed models. By contrast, real-world LLM services are remotely hosted and accessible only through input queries. This raises a fundamental question: can MoE routing be exploited through input-only attacks to induce stronger unsafe behaviors in real-world services? Our key insight is to optimize attacks in a white-box setting on open-source surrogate MoE models and transfer the resulting adversarial inputs to public API services within the same model family. This setting presents three main challenges: routing can be influenced only indirectly through input perturbations, routing control and output generation are tightly coupled, and even a successful safety bypass may still produce low-quality responses. To address these challenges, we propose Misrouter, an input-only attack framework that jointly targets routing behavior and expert functionality. Misrouter identifies weakly aligned experts that are willing to produce target harmful content by analyzing expert activations under harmful queries paired with unsafe continuations. It then optimizes adversarial inputs to steer routing toward these experts and away from strongly aligned ones. It further biases routing toward highly capable general-purpose experts identified from benign question-answering tasks. Finally, because routing and output objectives can conflict, Misrouter uses a two-phase optimization strategy that first steers routing and then optimizes harmful outputs while preserving routing stability.

Evaluating retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) pipelines requires corpora where ground truth is knowable, temporally structured, and cross-artifact properties that real-world datasets rarely provide cleanly. Existing resources such as the Enron corpus carry legal ambiguity, demographic skew, and no structured ground truth. Purely LLM-generated synthetic data solves the legal problem but introduces a subtler one: the generating model cannot be prevented from hallucinating facts that contradict themselves across documents.We present OrgForge, an open-source multi-agent simulation framework that enforces a strict physics-cognition boundary: a deterministic Python engine maintains a SimEvent ground truth bus; large language models generate only surface prose, constrained by validated proposals. An actor-local clock enforces causal timestamp correctness across all artifact types, eliminating the class of timeline inconsistencies that arise when timestamps are sampled independently per document. We formalize three graph-dynamic subsystems stress propagation via betweenness centrality, temporal edge-weight decay, and Dijkstra escalation routing that govern organizational behavior independently of any LLM. Running a configurable N-day simulation, OrgForge produces interleaved Slack threads, JIRA tickets, Confluence pages, Git pull requests, and emails, all traceable to a shared, immutable event log. We additionally describe a causal chain tracking subsystem that accumulates cross-artifact evidence graphs per incident, a hybrid reciprocal-rank-fusion recurrence detector for identifying repeated failure classes, and an inbound/outbound email engine that routes vendor alerts, customer complaints, and HR correspondence through gated causal chains with probabilistic drop simulation. OrgForge is available under the MIT license.

Large language model (LLM) agents frequently fail on multi-step tasks involving reasoning, tool use, and environment interaction. While such failures are typically logged or retried heuristically, they contain structured signals about where execution broke down. We introduce CausalFlow, an interventional framework that converts failed agent traces into minimal counterfactual repairs and reusable supervision. CausalFlow models execution traces as sequential chains of dependent steps and computes Causal Responsibility Scores(CRS) via step-level counterfactual intervention to identify failure-inducing steps. For these steps, we generate minimally edited repairs that flip the final outcome to success, producing validated contrastive pairs of the form (wrong step, corrected step). CausalFlow supports two complementary uses: targeted test-time repair that recovers from failures with minimal behavioral drift, and training-time supervision suitable for offline preference optimization or reward modeling. Across four benchmarks spanning mathematical reasoning, code generation, question answering, and medical browsing, CausalFlow converts failed executions into validated minimal repairs with high minimality and causal-consensus scores, and demonstrates that causal attribution is necessary for reliable improvement across diverse agent tasks, outperforming heuristic refinement in complex retrieval settings while producing more localized repairs throughout. These results demonstrate that interventional analysis over structured execution traces provides a principled and scalable mechanism for transforming agent failures into reliability gains and learning-ready supervision.

In this paper, we propose REASON, a novel framework that enables the automatic discovery of both intra-level (i.e., within-network) and inter-level (i.e., across-network) causal relationships for root cause localization. REASON consists of Topological Causal Discovery and Individual Causal Discovery. The Topological Causal Discovery component aims to model the fault propagation in order to trace back to the root causes. To achieve this, we propose novel hierarchical graph neural networks to construct interdependent causal networks by modeling both intra-level and inter-level non-linear causal relations. Based on the learned interdependent causal networks, we then leverage random walks with restarts to model the network propagation of a system fault. The Individual Causal Discovery component focuses on capturing abrupt change patterns of a single system entity. This component examines the temporal patterns of each entity's metric data (i.e., time series), and estimates its likelihood of being a root cause based on the Extreme Value theory. Combining the topological and individual causal scores, the top K system entities are identified as root causes. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets with case studies demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework.

Real-world users typically have access to multiple Large Language Models (LLMs) from different providers, and these LLMs often excel at distinct domains, yet none dominate all. Consequently, routing each task to the most suitable model becomes critical for both performance and cost. Existing routers treat this as a static, one-off classification problem. However, we identify the performance bottleneck for these routers as information deficit: simply augmenting a vanilla LLM router with performance statistics at the task-dimension level yields a 15.3% relative gain, surpassing a heuristic router built on the same dimension-level priors. Motivated by this finding, we propose Agent-as-a-Router, a framework that formalizes routing as a C-A-F loop (Context->Action->Feedback->Context). It closes the information gap by accumulating execution-grounded experience during deployment. We instantiate this framework as ACRouter, composed of an Orchestrator, a Verifier, a Memory module, and introduce CodeRouterBench, an evaluation environment comprising ~10K task instances with verified scores from 8 frontier LLMs, enabling regret-based router comparison on streaming tasks. Experiments show that ACRouter achieves the lowest cumulative regret on in-distribution tasks and generalizes to out-of-distribution agentic-programming tasks, demonstrating that our routing framework actively closes the information gap. Codes and benchmarks are released at https://github.com/LanceZPF/agent-as-a-router.

Large language model agents are increasingly executed not by a single model call, but by an execution harness that manages observation, context, control, action, state, and verification. At the same time, frontier and open models are becoming structurally specialized: a model that is strong at code editing, long-context recovery, tool use, mathematical reasoning, or low-latency response may not dominate on the other axes. This makes model selection inside an agent a core systems problem rather than a per-query serving trick. Existing routing methods mostly optimize single-turn cost-quality trade-offs and therefore miss the execution state, intermediate failures, and feedback loops that make agents different from chat completion. We propose Harness-Native agentic routing, a step-level routing paradigm that selects either a single best-fit model for cost-effective execution or multiple complementary models for ensemble-style accuracy improvement, conditioned on the full harness state. The key insight is that every routing decision naturally produces a structured data record -- consisting of the query, harness state, model choice or model set, execution trace, outcome, and cost -- whose labels are supplied by the environment rather than by the router itself. These records form a harness-native data flywheel: execution traces train better routers and harness-native models, which improve cost-quality trade-offs and generate more traces under the same budget. We instantiate this idea in OpenSquilla with a four-layer routing stack, an open LightGBM cold-start ranker, and a staged router-model path that turns logged arena records into progressively stronger routing policies. The report studies singleton and multi-model routing on agentic benchmarks including DRACO and PinchBench, and argues that agentic routing is not merely cost control, but a data engine for agent-native training.

LLM routing has become a popular approach to improve the cost-quality trade-off of LLM services by dynamically selecting a model for each query. Recent work has explored a broad range of routing methods, including clustering-based routers, learned classifiers, pairwise ranking, and confidence-based approaches. Our extensive study of 21 routing methods across five benchmarks reveals a consistent phenomenon that we call the routing plateau: many methods, including kNN, achieve very similar accuracy and converge to a narrow performance range that remains far below the oracle router. Our investigation shows that the plateau is largely caused by a predictability bottleneck: current routers mainly learn global averaged model-performance trends rather than fine-grained query-specific routing signals. As a result, they solve overlapping easy queries but collectively fail on hard queries that require instance-specific routing decisions. We further study how to move beyond the plateau and find that larger training datasets, stronger encoders, and end-to-end fine-tuning can further improve routing accuracy. These findings characterize the common limits of current routing methods and provide insights and actionable directions for the community to build more effective routing systems.

Software-engineering agents solve repository-level tasks through long, stochastic tool-use trajectories, and repeated attempts often find fixes missed by one run. Test-time scaling is difficult because patches lack canonical answer forms, while sibling actions from a shared prefix are correlated. We study whether native MoE router traces can guide steering and selection without an external judge or selection-time test execution. Our analysis shows that routing provides a robust behavioral role signal; token-granular readouts and decision-matched comparison sets turn it into effective control. We therefore introduce Risa (Routing-Informed Steering and Arbitration): within trajectories, routing encourages diverse exploration and controlled convergence during patch commitment; across separately sampled trajectories, agreement at informative patch positions selects a final candidate. We evaluate on SWE-bench Verified using open-weight sparse MoE agents across scales and reasoning-effort settings. Risa's routing arbitration raises the macro-average resolved rate from 44.9% under uniform sampling to 48.2% on the gpt-oss family, matching text consensus without answer-string matching, and it transfers to Qwen3.6, where it improves on uniform choice and matches text consensus on the full 500-task benchmark.

As LLMs proliferate with diverse capabilities and costs, LLM routing has emerged by learning to predict each LLM's quality and cost for a given query, then selecting the one with high quality and low cost. However, existing routers implicitly assume a single fixed quality and cost per LLM for each query, ignoring that the same LLM's quality varies with its output length. This causes routers to exclude powerful LLMs when their estimated cost exceeds the budget, missing the opportunity that these LLMs could still deliver high quality at reduced cost with shorter outputs. To address this, we introduce R2-Router, which treats output length budget as a controllable variable and jointly selects the best LLM and length budget, enforcing the budget via length-constrained instructions. This enables R2-Router to discover that a powerful LLM with constrained output can outperform a weaker LLM at comparable cost-efficient configurations invisible to prior methods. Together with the router framework, we construct R2-Bench, the first routing dataset capturing LLM behavior across diverse output length budgets. Experiments show that R2-Router achieves state-of-the-art performance at 4-5x lower cost compared with existing routers. This work opens a new direction: routing as reasoning, where routers evolve from reactive selectors to deliberate reasoners that explore which LLM to use and at what cost budget.

Existing 3D scene generation methods often struggle to model the complex logical dependencies and physical constraints between objects, limiting their ability to adapt to dynamic and realistic environments. We propose CausalStruct, a novel framework that embeds causal reasoning into 3D scene generation. Utilizing large language models (LLMs), We construct causal graphs where nodes represent objects and attributes, while edges encode causal dependencies and physical constraints. CausalStruct iteratively refines the scene layout by enforcing causal order to determine the placement order of objects and applies causal intervention to adjust the spatial configuration according to physics-driven constraints, ensuring consistency with textual descriptions and real-world dynamics. The refined scene causal graph informs subsequent optimization steps, employing a Proportional-Integral-Derivative(PID) controller to iteratively tune object scales and positions. Our method uses text or images to guide object placement and layout in 3D scenes, with 3D Gaussian Splatting and Score Distillation Sampling improving shape accuracy and rendering stability. Extensive experiments show that CausalStruct generates 3D scenes with enhanced logical coherence, realistic spatial interactions, and robust adaptability.

Existing industrial-scale navigation applications contend with massive road networks, typically employing two main categories of approaches for route planning. The first relies on precomputed road costs for optimal routing and heuristic algorithms for generating alternatives, while the second, generative methods, has recently gained significant attention. However, the former struggles with personalization and route diversity, while the latter fails to meet the efficiency requirements of large-scale real-time scenarios. To address these limitations, we propose GenMRP, a generative framework for multi-route planning. To ensure generation efficiency, GenMRP first introduces a skeleton-to-capillary approach that dynamically constructs a relevant sub-network significantly smaller than the full road network. Within this sub-network, routes are generated iteratively. The first iteration identifies the optimal route, while the subsequent ones generate alternatives that balance quality and diversity using the newly proposed correctional boosting approach. Each iteration incorporates road features, user historical sequences, and previously generated routes into a Link Cost Model to update road costs, followed by route generation using the Dijkstra algorithm. Extensive experiments show that GenMRP achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency in both offline and online environments. To facilitate further research, we have publicly released the training and evaluation dataset. GenMRP has been fully deployed in a real-world navigation app, demonstrating its effectiveness and benefits.

We explore algorithms to select actions in the causal bandit setting where the learner can choose to intervene on a set of random variables related by a causal graph, and the learner sequentially chooses interventions and observes a sample from the interventional distribution. The learner's goal is to quickly find the intervention, among all interventions on observable variables, that maximizes the expectation of an outcome variable. We depart from previous literature by assuming no knowledge of the causal graph except that latent confounders between the outcome and its ancestors are not present. We first show that the unknown graph problem can be exponentially hard in the parents of the outcome. To remedy this, we adopt an additional additive assumption on the outcome which allows us to solve the problem by casting it as an additive combinatorial linear bandit problem with full-bandit feedback. We propose a novel action-elimination algorithm for this setting, show how to apply this algorithm to the causal bandit problem, provide sample complexity bounds, and empirically validate our findings on a suite of randomly generated causal models, effectively showing that one does not need to explicitly learn the parents of the outcome to identify the best intervention.

The Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) is a widely studied combinatorial optimization problem and has been applied to various practical problems. While the explainability for VRP is significant for improving the reliability and interactivity in practical VRP applications, it remains unexplored. In this paper, we propose RouteExplainer, a post-hoc explanation framework that explains the influence of each edge in a generated route. Our framework realizes this by rethinking a route as the sequence of actions and extending counterfactual explanations based on the action influence model to VRP. To enhance the explanation, we additionally propose an edge classifier that infers the intentions of each edge, a loss function to train the edge classifier, and explanation-text generation by Large Language Models (LLMs). We quantitatively evaluate our edge classifier on four different VRPs. The results demonstrate its rapid computation while maintaining reasonable accuracy, thereby highlighting its potential for deployment in practical applications. Moreover, on the subject of a tourist route, we qualitatively evaluate explanations generated by our framework. This evaluation not only validates our framework but also shows the synergy between explanation frameworks and LLMs. See https://ntt-dkiku.github.io/xai-vrp for our code, datasets, models, and demo.

Recovering causal relationships from data is an important problem. Using observational data, one can typically only recover causal graphs up to a Markov equivalence class and additional assumptions or interventional data are needed for complete recovery. In this work, under some standard assumptions, we study causal graph discovery via adaptive interventions with node-dependent interventional costs. For this setting, we show that no algorithm can achieve an approximation guarantee that is asymptotically better than linear in the number of vertices with respect to the verification number; a well-established benchmark for adaptive search algorithms. Motivated by this negative result, we define a new benchmark that captures the worst-case interventional cost for any search algorithm. Furthermore, with respect to this new benchmark, we provide adaptive search algorithms that achieve logarithmic approximations under various settings: atomic, bounded size interventions and generalized cost objectives.

Trajectory prediction models in autonomous driving are vulnerable to perturbations from non-causal agents whose actions should not affect the ego-agent's behavior. Such perturbations can lead to incorrect predictions of other agents' trajectories, potentially compromising the safety and efficiency of the ego-vehicle's decision-making process. Motivated by this challenge, we propose Causal tRajecTory predICtion (CRiTIC), a novel model that utilizes a Causal Discovery Network to identify inter-agent causal relations over a window of past time steps. To incorporate discovered causal relationships, we propose a novel Causal Attention Gating mechanism to selectively filter information in the proposed Transformer-based architecture. We conduct extensive experiments on two autonomous driving benchmark datasets to evaluate the robustness of our model against non-causal perturbations and its generalization capacity. Our results indicate that the robustness of predictions can be improved by up to 54% without a significant detriment to prediction accuracy. Lastly, we demonstrate the superior domain generalizability of the proposed model, which achieves up to 29% improvement in cross-domain performance. These results underscore the potential of our model to enhance both robustness and generalization capacity for trajectory prediction in diverse autonomous driving domains. Further details can be found on our project page: https://ehsan-ami.github.io/critic.

We study experiment design for unique identification of the causal graph of a simple SCM, where the graph may contain cycles. The presence of cycles in the structure introduces major challenges for experiment design as, unlike acyclic graphs, learning the skeleton of causal graphs with cycles may not be possible from merely the observational distribution. Furthermore, intervening on a variable in such graphs does not necessarily lead to orienting all the edges incident to it. In this paper, we propose an experiment design approach that can learn both cyclic and acyclic graphs and hence, unifies the task of experiment design for both types of graphs. We provide a lower bound on the number of experiments required to guarantee the unique identification of the causal graph in the worst case, showing that the proposed approach is order-optimal in terms of the number of experiments up to an additive logarithmic term. Moreover, we extend our result to the setting where the size of each experiment is bounded by a constant. For this case, we show that our approach is optimal in terms of the size of the largest experiment required for uniquely identifying the causal graph in the worst case.

Routing to select large language models (LLMs) with different cost-quality trade-offs has become a fundamental deployment feature of enterprise AI. Existing routers, primarily make independent routing decisions for each LLM call. However, agentic applications execute as long-horizon workflows whose quality is determined only by a delayed, task-level outcome. This mismatch prevents per-call routers from correctly attributing feedback to individual routing decisions. Towards mitigating this, we present TRACE-Router, a task-level routing framework that aligns routing with the unit of supervision. TRACE-Router assigns each task to a model once at admission using a contextual bandit, pins all subsequent LLM calls to the selected backend, and updates its policy using the task's terminal reward, jointly accounting for accuracy and latency. By leveraging delayed task feedback, TRACE-Router learns routing policies that adapt to the workload while avoiding explicit task-complexity estimation. Across three agentic benchmarks, TRACE-Router consistently improves the accuracy-latency trade-off, achieving non-dominated Pareto frontier points. On tau2-Bench, it outperforms latency-matched interpolation between individual models by 7-8 accuracy points, while on Terminal-Bench it achieves 7.1 higher accuracy points than the strongest single model baseline with 36% lower latency.

LLM routing aims to achieve a favorable quality--cost trade-off by dynamically assigning easy queries to smaller models and harder queries to stronger ones. However, across both unimodal and multimodal settings, we uncover a pervasive yet underexplored failure mode in existing routers: as the user's cost budget increases, routers systematically default to the most capable and most expensive model even when cheaper models already suffice. As a result, current routers under-utilize small models, wasting computation and monetary cost and undermining the core promise of routing; we term this phenomenon routing collapse. We attribute routing collapse to an objective--decision mismatch: many routers are trained to predict scalar performance scores, whereas routing decisions ultimately depend on discrete comparisons among candidate models. Consequently, small prediction errors can flip relative orderings and trigger suboptimal selections. To bridge this gap, we propose EquiRouter, a decision-aware router that directly learns model rankings, restoring the role of smaller models and mitigating routing collapse. On RouterBench, EquiRouter reduces cost by about 17\% at GPT-4-level performance compared to the strongest prior router. Our code is available at https://github.com/AIGNLAI/EquiRouter.

Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI) global routing is an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem requiring signal net assignment across capacity-constrained 3D grids while minimizing congestion, wirelength, and via transitions. Because traditional heuristics rely on static penalty schedules that fail on complex congestion topologies, we present AlphaRoute: a multi-objective adaptive search framework reformulating rip-up and reroute (R&R) into a dynamic optimization system. We introduce SHAP-based overflow decomposition to isolate per-net congestion, driving targeted subgraph extraction via 3D Dijkstra maze routing and an adaptive PathFinder policy. Crucially, AlphaRoute employs Large Language Models (LLMs) as semantic policy optimizers. Bounded by a deterministic knowledge graph, the LLMs interpret congestion metrics to dynamically adjust penalty parameters. Evaluated on ISPD 2025 benchmarks, AlphaRoute reduces overflow by 98.6% on MEMPOOL. On the constrained ARIANE design, we achieve an overflow of 146,109 (a 29.8x reduction in overflow over the state of the art), yielding a penalized score of S_orig = 0.0538 versus the State-of-the-art (SOTA) 1.780. These results demonstrate that superior algorithmic search geometry can overcome the latency of interpreted Python implementations.

Large language model (LLM) routing distributes inference work across different models, advancing the cost-quality Pareto frontier of LLM serving. While coarse-grained routing at the session or query level has been widely adopted in production systems, recent algorithmic work shows that fine-grained token-level routing can yield substantial efficiency and quality gains. However, efficiently serving token-level routed inference poses significant challenges to existing systems. Built on single-LLM assumptions, current systems suffer from severe step desynchronization and frequent batch admission delays under token-level routing, and they also impose high implementation complexity on developers. To address these challenges, we design TokenRouter, an efficient and developer-friendly serving system for token-level routed LLM inference. TokenRouter follows the principle of request-centric programming, model-centric execution: developers describe routing logic from the perspective of a single request, while the runtime launches a subserver for each LLM and dispatches requests asynchronously. Each subserver employs a delayed-batching scheduler, whose optimal hyperparameters are derived from a mathematical throughput model of the system. Across diverse routing algorithms, workloads, and model pairs, TokenRouter achieves 2.01-64.15x higher decoding throughput than existing systems, substantially advancing the serving efficiency of token-level LLM routing. Our code is available at https://github.com/thu-nics/TokenRouter.

Modern LLM deployments confront a widening cost-performance spectrum: premium models deliver strong reasoning but are expensive, while lightweight models are economical yet brittle on complex tasks. Static escalation rules and keyword heuristics under-utilize this spectrum and fail to adapt across task types. We present xRouter, a tool-calling-based routing system in which a learned router can either answer directly or invoke one or more external models. The router is trained end-to-end with reinforcement learning using an explicit, cost-aware reward that encodes cost-performance trade-offs, eliminating the need for hand-engineered routing rules. Our implementation encompasses the full reinforcement learning framework, including reward and cost accounting, as well as the deployment and evaluation pipelines. Across diverse benchmarks, xRouter achieves strong cost-performance trade-offs (e.g., substantial cost reductions at comparable task completion rates), and provides empirical insights into what reliably helps learned routing and what does not, ranging from model trainability to the difficulty of eliciting sophisticated orchestration behaviors in small open models. We hope these findings and our open implementation will serve as a practical substrate for advancing learned, cost-aware LLM orchestration.

Multi-Agent Systems(MAS) have become a powerful paradigm for building high performance intelligent applications. Within these systems, the router responsible for determining which expert agents should handle a given query plays a crucial role in overall performance. Existing routing strategies generally fall into two categories: performance routing, which balances latency and cost across models of different sizes, and task routing, which assigns queries to domain-specific experts to improve accuracy. In real-world enterprise applications, task routing is more suitable; however, most existing approaches rely on static single-label decisions, which introduce two major limitations: (i) difficulty in seamlessly integrating new agents as business domains expand, and (ii) routing conflicts caused by overlapping agent capabilities, ultimately degrading accuracy and robustness.To address these challenges, we propose TCAndon-Router(TCAR): an adaptive reasoning router for multi-agent collaboration. Unlike traditional routers, TCAR supports dynamic agent onboarding and first generates a natural-language reasoning chain before predicting a set of candidate agents capable of handling the query. In addition, we design a collaborative execution pipeline in which selected agents independently produce responses, which are then aggregated and refined into a single high-quality response by a dedicated Refining Agent.Experiments on public datasets and real enterprise data demonstrate that TCAR significantly improves routing accuracy, reduces routing conflicts, and remains robust in ambiguous scenarios. We have released TCAR at https://huggingface.co/tencent/TCAndon-Router to support future research on explainable and collaborative multi-agent routing.

LLM routing matters most in long-horizon applications such as coding agents, deep research systems, and computer-use agents, where a single user request triggers many model calls. Routing each call to the cheapest sufficient model can cut costs without sacrificing quality, yet existing router benchmarks evaluate routers only on one-shot prompts. They never expose the router-visible prefix at an intermediate agent step, never test whether a cheaper replacement preserves downstream task success, and often rely on online LLM judges at evaluation time. We introduce TwinRouterBench, a step-level routing benchmark with two tracks. The static track provides 970 router-visible prefixes from 520 instances across SWE-bench, BFCL, mtRAG, QMSum, and PinchBench, each paired with an execution-verified target tier estimated under a released downgrade-and-cascade protocol; scoring is deterministic arithmetic over tier labels, trajectory membership, and token costs, with no online evaluator-side LLM judge. The dynamic track supplies a harness that runs routers on the full 500-case SWE-bench Verified suite; in this paper we report a 100-case held-out evaluation disjoint from the static SWE supervision split. At each LLM call the router selects a concrete model from a locked pool, and success is measured by official task resolution and realized API spend. The two tracks support fast offline iteration followed by end-to-end validation under live agent execution. Code and data are available at https://github.com/CommonstackAI/TwinRouterBench.

Compound AI systems promise capabilities beyond those of individual models, yet their success depends critically on effective orchestration. Existing routing approaches face two limitations: (1) input-level routers make coarse query-level decisions that ignore evolving task requirements; (2) RL-trained orchestrators are expensive to adapt and often suffer from routing collapse, repeatedly invoking one strong but costly option in multi-turn scenarios. We introduce SkillOrchestra, a framework for skill-aware orchestration. Instead of directly learning a routing policy end-to-end, SkillOrchestra learns fine-grained skills from execution experience and models agent-specific competence and cost under those skills. At deployment, the orchestrator infers the skill demands of the current interaction and selects agents that best satisfy them under an explicit performance-cost trade-off. Extensive experiments across ten benchmarks demonstrate that SkillOrchestra outperforms SoTA RL-based orchestrators by up to 22.5% with 700x and 300x learning cost reduction compared to Router-R1 and ToolOrchestra, respectively. These results show that explicit skill modeling enables scalable, interpretable, and sample-efficient orchestration, offering a principled alternative to data-intensive RL-based approaches. The code is available at: https://github.com/jiayuww/SkillOrchestra.

Perturbation probing generates task-specific causal hypotheses for FFN neurons in large language models using two forward passes per prompt and no backpropagation, followed by a one-time intervention sweep of about 150 passes amortized across all identified neurons. Across eight behavioral circuits, 13 models, and four architecture families, we identify two circuit structures that organize LLM behavior. Opposition circuits appear when RLHF suppresses a pre-training tendency. In safety refusal, about 50 neurons, or 0.014 percent of all neurons, control the refusal template; ablating them changes 80 percent of response formats on 520 AdvBench prompts while producing near-zero harmful compliance, 3 of 520 cases, all with disclaimers. Routing circuits appear for pre-training behaviors distributed through attention. For language selection, residual-stream direction injection switches English to Chinese output on 99.1 percent of 580 benchmark prompts in the 3 of 19 tested models that satisfy three observed conditions: bilingual training, FFN-to-skip signal ratio between 0.3 and 1.1, and linear representability. The same intervention fails on the other 16 models and on math, code, and factual circuits, defining the limits of directional steering. The FFN-to-skip signal ratio, computed from the same two forward passes, distinguishes the two structures and predicts the appropriate intervention. Circuit topology varies by architecture, from Qwen's concentrated FFN bottleneck to Gemma's normalization-shielded circuit. In Qwen3.5-2B, ablating 20 neurons eliminates multi-turn sycophantic capitulation, while amplifying 10 related neurons improves factual correction from 52 percent to 88 percent on 200 TruthfulQA prompts. These results show that perturbation probing offers mechanistic insight into RLHF-organized behavior and a practical toolkit for precision template-layer editing.

Existing Large Language Model (LLM) routing methods score LLMs independently to select top-k models. However, this ignores model correlations and enforces a rigid computational budget. Consequently, routers often select redundant models that share failure modes, limiting the overall probability of success. To address this, we propose FlexRouter, a routing framework that explicitly models model complementarity. FlexRouter optimizes for answer coverage, maximizing the probability that at least one selected model yields a correct response. This objective aligns with practical inference pipelines where multiple candidate outputs are generated and a downstream verifier or user selects the final one. We formulate routing as a coverage-oriented subset selection problem and model the routing policy using Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs), which naturally capture both model competence and redundancy. To directly optimize coverage without requiring a ground-truth target subset, we introduce a training objective based on marginalizing over failure sets. During inference, we employ a greedy strategy based on marginal log-determinant gains, enabling the router to adaptively determine subset sizes without a predefined budget. Extensive experiments on the large-scale RouterEval benchmark demonstrate that our proposed FlexRouter achieves higher coverage with lower redundancy across both in-domain and out-of-domain tasks than strong baselines while maintaining flexible inference cost.

Multi-agent systems built on large language models (LLMs) require many coordination choices that are difficult to fix a priori: which skill protocol to invoke, which agent role should perform a subtask, which model to bind to each role, how roles should interact, when to use retrieval or verification, and when to omit a step entirely. These choices interact with task regime and operational constraints, so static pipelines and one-off model comparisons provide only a limited view of the design space. This paper introduces AgensFlow, an open-source framework that treats multi-agent coordination as an online policy-learning problem under partial observability. The framework makes coordination decisions observable and learnable from repeated trajectories, rather than treating skill, role, model, topology, and evaluation choices as fixed pipeline design. AgensFlow is evaluated on two corpora: distributed-systems incident tasks and security-advisory tasks. The evaluation shows three main results: learned routing reaches a higher-quality operating point than a fixed pipeline baseline on coordination-heavy classes; skip:X isolates topology compression as a meaningful part of the substrate; and warm-started policy graphs can reduce exploration cost while preserving plateau quality. Overall, the results support that learned, auditable routing can improve coordination-heavy multi-agent workflows over static wiring.

The rapid growth of large language models (LLMs) with diverse capabilities, costs, and domains has created a critical need for intelligent model selection at inference time. While smaller models suffice for routine queries, complex tasks demand more capable models. However, static model deployment does not account for the complexity and domain of incoming queries, leading to suboptimal performance and increased costs. Dynamic routing systems that adaptively select models based on query characteristics have emerged as a solution to this challenge. We provide a systematic analysis of state-of-the-art multi-LLM routing and cascading approaches. In contrast to mixture-of-experts architectures, which route within a single model, we study routing across multiple independently trained LLMs. We cover diverse routing paradigms, including query difficulty, human preferences, clustering, uncertainty quantification, reinforcement learning, multimodality, and cascading. For each paradigm, we analyze representative methods and examine key trade-offs. Beyond taxonomy, we introduce a conceptual framework that characterizes routing systems along three dimensions: when decisions are made, what information is used, and how they are computed. This perspective highlights that practical systems are often compositional, integrating multiple paradigms under operational constraints. Our analysis demonstrates that effective multi-LLM routing requires balancing competing objectives. Choosing the optimal routing strategy depends on deployment and computational constraints. Well-designed routing systems can outperform even the most powerful individual models by strategically leveraging specialized capabilities across models while maximizing efficiency gains. Meanwhile, open challenges remain in developing routing mechanisms that generalize across diverse architectures, modalities, and applications.

Many scientific questions require reasoning about what was never observed: What if the conditions, interventions, or history had been different? Models can predict accurately on observed data yet fail on such what-if queries when correlated inputs are varied independently. A common remedy is to add controlled simulation data in which these factors are explicitly disentangled, but this requires access to a simulator, can be computationally expensive, and inherits the simulator's modeling assumptions. We introduce ReRoute, a framework for targeted scientific what-if prediction that combines factual data with partial mechanistic knowledge, without requiring controlled intervention data for adaptation. ReRoute fixes the queried input of a pretrained backbone to a reference value, reintroduces its variation through a known mechanistic pathway, and fine-tunes on the original factual data, while leaving downstream effects to the learned dynamics. We provide a causal identification result for this construction under explicit structural assumptions, with the core argument machine-checked in Lean. After showing that ReRoute achieves highly accurate counterfactual predictions in a controlled advection-diffusion system where exact responses are available, we turn to state-of-the-art climate emulation. On held-out coupled-climate interventions, ReRoute reduces aggregate climate error by 18.2-31.8% under severe CO_2 distribution shifts while preserving skill under standard conditions, at a small fraction of the cost of retraining on additional controlled simulations, without even accounting for the substantial expense of generating such data. Finally, on an emulator trained from historical ERA5 reanalysis, where no counterfactual reference exists, ReRoute preserves substantially more of the surface warming implied by the observed boundary conditions under a fixed-CO_2 counterfactual.

Disasters are inevitable and increasingly costly, and effective response depends on querying structured tabular data: precise, information-dense records of hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and lifeline infrastructure that underpin disaster management. Current text-to-SQL methods enable natural-language access to such tables but transfer poorly to the disaster domain, where queries span heterogeneous geospatial schemas and require reasoning over causal relations. We introduce DisasterLex, a knowledge-graph-mediated framework that inserts an Expert Knowledge Graph (EKG) of curated concepts and typed causal edges between the user query and the database, bridged to schema by concept-to-table links. The orchestration runs four stages (identifying query entities, routing to the operational domain, planning over causal edges, and grounding the SQL), restricting the schema passed to the model at each step. We instantiate it on a disaster-analytics database (36 geospatial tables, 150 columns) with an EKG of 107 concepts, 117 causal edges, and 52 concept-to-schema links, evaluated on a 75-query test set. On all seven base models spanning proprietary and open-weight families, DisasterLex beats four state-of-the-art baselines (LightRAG, HippoRAG 2, ReFoRCE, CHESS) by 1.4x to 2.75x, with absolute scores of 1.65 to 3.56 (of 5.0). Error analysis shows baseline failures cluster in routing and multi-table SQL composition, the operations our orchestration explicitly addresses. Code, data, and the EKG artifact are available at https://github.com/YimingXiao98/DisasterLex and on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20388029.

Autoregressive video generation aims at real-time, open-ended synthesis. Yet, cinematic storytelling is not merely the endless extension of a single scene; it requires progressing through evolving events, viewpoint shifts, and discrete shot boundaries. Existing autoregressive models often struggle in this setting. Trained primarily for short-horizon continuation, they treat long sequences as extended single shots, inevitably suffering from motion stagnation and semantic drift during long rollouts. To bridge this gap, we introduce CausalCine, an interactive autoregressive framework that transforms multi-shot video generation into an online directing process. CausalCine generates causally across shot changes, accepts dynamic prompts on the fly, and reuses context without regenerating previous shots. To achieve this, we first train a causal base model on native multi-shot sequences to learn complex shot transitions prior to acceleration. We then propose Content-Aware Memory Routing (CAMR), which dynamically retrieves historical KV entries according to attention-based relevance scores rather than temporal proximity, preserving cross-shot coherence under bounded active memory. Finally, we distill the causal base model into a few-step generator for real-time interactive generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CausalCine significantly outperforms autoregressive baselines and approaches the capability of bidirectional models while unlocking the streaming interactivity of causal generation. Demo available at https://yihao-meng.github.io/CausalCine/

Understanding how Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models transform multimodal knowledge into embodied control remains an open challenge. We present VLA-Trace, a progressive diagnostic framework that analyzes VLA models through a unified evidence chain from representation dynamics to causal control attribution and behavioral manifestation. It specifically combines cross-modal and checkpoint-drift centered kernel alignment (CKA) to trace representation evolution, attention knockout interventions to identify modality-specific control pathways, and rollout-level behavioral probes to examine grounding, shortcut dependence, and semantic following. Experiments on π_{0.5} and OpenVLA reveal three key findings. First, the two models exhibit distinct modality-specific adaptation dynamics during VLA finetuning. Second, they rely on different multimodal routing strategies and layer-wise dependencies during action decoding. Third, although VLA policies excel at visually grounded trajectory generation, they remain limited in fine-grained semantic following. These findings highlight future directions for representation-preserving adaptation, causal VLA circuits, and compositional semantic control.

Schema-guided reasoning pipelines ask LLMs to produce explicit intermediate structures -- rubrics, checklists, verification queries -- before committing to a final decision. But do these structures causally determine the output, or merely accompany it? We introduce a causal evaluation protocol that makes this directly measurable: by selecting tasks where a deterministic function maps intermediate structures to decisions, every controlled edit implies a unique correct output. Across eight models and three benchmarks, models appear self-consistent with their own intermediate structures but fail to update predictions after intervention in up to 60% of cases -- revealing that apparent faithfulness is fragile once the intermediate structure changes. When derivation of the final decision from the structure is delegated to an external tool, this fragility largely disappears; however, prompts which ask to prioritize the intermediate structure over the original input do not materially close the gap. Overall, intermediate structures in schema-guided pipelines function as influential context rather than stable causal mediators.

Time-series causal discovery (TSCD) is a fundamental problem of machine learning. However, existing synthetic datasets cannot properly evaluate or predict the algorithms' performance on real data. This study introduces the CausalTime pipeline to generate time-series that highly resemble the real data and with ground truth causal graphs for quantitative performance evaluation. The pipeline starts from real observations in a specific scenario and produces a matching benchmark dataset. Firstly, we harness deep neural networks along with normalizing flow to accurately capture realistic dynamics. Secondly, we extract hypothesized causal graphs by performing importance analysis on the neural network or leveraging prior knowledge. Thirdly, we derive the ground truth causal graphs by splitting the causal model into causal term, residual term, and noise term. Lastly, using the fitted network and the derived causal graph, we generate corresponding versatile time-series proper for algorithm assessment. In the experiments, we validate the fidelity of the generated data through qualitative and quantitative experiments, followed by a benchmarking of existing TSCD algorithms using these generated datasets. CausalTime offers a feasible solution to evaluating TSCD algorithms in real applications and can be generalized to a wide range of fields. For easy use of the proposed approach, we also provide a user-friendly website, hosted on www.causaltime.cc.

Recent advances in Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have shown promising capabilities in autonomous driving by leveraging the understanding and reasoning strengths of Large Language Models(LLMs).However, our empirical analysis reveals that directly applying existing token-level MoE mechanisms--which are inherited from LLM architectures--to VLA models results in unstable performance and safety degradation in autonomous driving, highlighting a misalignment between token-based expert specialization and scene-level decision-making.To address this, we propose SAMoE-VLA, a scene-adaptive Vision-Language-Action framework that conditions expert selection on structured scene representations instead of token embeddings. Our key idea is to derive the MoE routing signal from bird's-eye-view (BEV) features that encapsulates traffic scene context, enabling scenario-dependent expert weighting and merging tailored to distinct driving conditions. Furthermore, to support temporally consistent reasoning across world-knowledge, perception, language, and action, we introduce a Conditional Cross-Modal Causal Attention mechanism that integrates world state, linguistic intent, and action history into a unified causal reasoning process. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes open loop planning dataset and LangAuto closed-loop benchmark demonstrate that SAMoE-VLA achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming prior VLA-based and world-model-based approaches with fewer parameters.Our code will be released soon.

Looped Transformers repeatedly apply the same set of Transformer layers, giving them a recurrent architecture for latent computation. Their strong performance on iterative reasoning and length-generalization tasks suggests an appealing explanation: recurrence may provide an inductive bias that lets the model reuse a learned algorithm across loops. However, weight sharing alone does not imply that every loop performs the same operation. This raises a basic question: is each loop actually repeating the same computation, and if not, what routes the shared parameters to different operations? We study this question using graph walks as a test case. In the model's native trajectories, decoded predictions can advance by different numbers of graph steps or remain at a reached target, showing that recurrent progress need not follow a fixed one-loop-one-step pattern. We then show that a frozen loop can be steered toward different transitions by modifying its entering hidden state: a learned linear layer J selects the desired transition without changing the shared Transformer layers. To test how this steering works, we use activation patching and find that attention patterns can recover its effects and switch the selected transition. Across five matched pairs of graph models, changing intermediate supervision during backbone training changes which transitions J can induce. This suggests that J selects computations learned by the backbone rather than creating new algorithms. Together, these results show that the hidden state can control shared computation, with attention routing as a causal pathway.

Retrieval augmented generation (RAG) has enhanced large language models by enabling access to external knowledge, with graph-based RAG emerging as a powerful paradigm for structured retrieval and reasoning. However, existing graph-based methods often over-rely on surface-level node matching and lack explicit causal modeling, leading to unfaithful or spurious answers. Prior attempts to incorporate causality are typically limited to local or single-document contexts and also suffer from information isolation that arises from modular graph structures, which hinders scalability and cross-module causal reasoning. To address these challenges, we propose HugRAG, a framework that rethinks knowledge organization for graph-based RAG through causal gating across hierarchical modules. HugRAG explicitly models causal relationships to suppress spurious correlations while enabling scalable reasoning over large-scale knowledge graphs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that HugRAG consistently outperforms competitive graph-based RAG baselines across multiple datasets and evaluation metrics. Our work establishes a principled foundation for structured, scalable, and causally grounded RAG systems.

Foundational Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate proficiency on a wide range of general tasks, and achieve remarkable results on various specialized tasks via domain-expert LLMs. With the ever-growing list of available LLMs, inference routers are being proposed to select the most appropriate LLM for each prompt. However, existing routing methods either optimize cost across weak-to-strong generalist LLMs or require substantial training to support domain-expertise routing. In this paper, we propose IR3DE, a Ridge Regression-based Router for Domain Experts that provides cheap and fast routing decisions for each prompt. We evaluate IR3DE in two Causal Language Modeling (CLM) settings where the tasks are next-token prediction for all domains, and one reasoning setting where each domain has its own distinct reasoning task. Despite being a linear router, IR3DE achieves performance comparable to the other baselines in both CLM settings, and surpassing them in the reasoning setting, with a normalized performance of 98.4%. Moreover, IR3DE enables the addition or removal of new domain experts without requiring the router to be retrained from scratch, allowing a dynamic set of LLMs to be served with minimal disruption to the router itself. Our code is available at: github.com/gensyn-ai/IR3DE.

Tool-using LLM agents face a reliability-cost tradeoff: routing every decision through the LLM improves correctness but incurs high latency and inference cost, while pre-coded workflow graphs reduce cost but become brittle under unanticipated compound tool failures. We present Self-Healing Router, a fault-tolerant orchestration architecture that treats most agent control-flow decisions as routing rather than reasoning. The system combines (i) parallel health monitors that assign priority scores to runtime conditions such as tool outages and risk signals, and (ii) a cost-weighted tool graph where Dijkstra's algorithm performs deterministic shortest-path routing. When a tool fails mid-execution, its edges are reweighted to infinity and the path is recomputed -- yielding automatic recovery without invoking the LLM. The LLM is reserved exclusively for cases where no feasible path exists, enabling goal demotion or escalation. Prior graph-based tool-use systems (ControlLLM, ToolNet, NaviAgent) focus on tool selection and planning; our contribution is runtime fault tolerance with deterministic recovery and binary observability -- every failure is either a logged reroute or an explicit escalation, never a silent skip. Across 19 scenarios spanning three graph topologies (linear pipeline, dependency DAG, parallel fan-out), Self-Healing Router matches ReAct's correctness while reducing control-plane LLM calls by 93% (9 vs 123 aggregate) and eliminating the silent-failure cases observed in a well-engineered static workflow baseline under compound failures.

Sparse Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) models enable scaling language models efficiently, but training them remains challenging, as routing can collapse onto few experts and auxiliary load-balancing losses can reduce specialization. Motivated by these hurdles, we study how routing decisions in SMoEs are formed mechanistically. First, we reveal a geometric coupling between routers and their corresponding experts. For a given token, the router weights for the selected expert and the expert weights processing it receive gradients along the same input direction, differing only in scalar coefficients. Thus, matched router--expert directions accumulate the same routed token history. This theoretical coupling also appears empirically in routing dynamics. In a 1B SMoE trained from scratch, higher router scores predict stronger expert neuron activations, showing that routing decisions are mirrored inside the selected expert. Next, we analyze the effects of auxiliary load balancing on the router--expert geometric coupling, showing that such losses break this structure by spreading input-directed gradients across router weights, making distinct router directions nearly three times more similar to each other. Last, we demonstrate the centrality of geometric coupling for effective routing with a parameter-free online K-Means router, in which each expert maintains a running average of the hidden states routed to it and tokens are assigned based on cosine similarity. Compared with auxiliary-loss and loss-free balancing, this router achieves the lowest load imbalance with only a modest perplexity increase, indicating that geometric coupling captures a substantial part of what the router learns. Overall, our results explain how routers form assignment geometry that supports an effective division of labor.

Model merging efficiently combines specialized large language models (LLMs) without joint retraining, but can substantially alter expert routing in Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models. Such routing drift is often interpreted as routing failure, raising a fundamental question that remains unclear: does routing drift after MoE merging actually indicate routing failure, and what evidence should justify repair? We investigate these questions across DeepSeekMoE, OLMoE, and Qwen3-MoE proposing a routing analysis toolkit for controlled counterfactual interventions and token-level analysis. By crossing source and merged router inputs and parameters, we attribute most expert reassignments to input shifts rather than parameter changes at the same layer. However, source-relative routing differences poorly predict next-token likelihood gains from source-route restoration, and different expert selections can produce directionally similar mixture outputs. We therefore operationalize routing failure as task loss recoverable under a specified routing intervention, with non-routing parameters fixed. These tests detect recoverable loss under deliberate router corruption, whereas source-route restoration does not establish reliable task benefits in the evaluated merged models. Motivated by these, we propose Selective Router Repair (SRR) as a case study, and find that source-specialist token-likelihood advantages do not reliably identify beneficial local corrections. Together, these findings show that routing drift alone is insufficient evidence of routing failure: source-informed corrections must be judged by their task-level intervention effects. The analysis toolkit and SRR code are released.

Over the past year, the vLLM Semantic Router project has released a series of work spanning: (1) core routing mechanisms -- signal-driven routing, context-length pool routing, router performance engineering, policy conflict detection, low-latency embedding models, category-aware semantic caching, user-feedback-driven routing adaptation, hallucination detection, and hierarchical content-safety classification for privacy and jailbreak protection; (2) fleet optimization -- fleet provisioning and energy-efficiency analysis; (3) agentic and multimodal routing -- multimodal agent routing, tool selection, CUA security, and multi-turn context memory and safety; (4) governance and standards -- inference routing protocols and multi-provider API extensions. Each paper tackled a specific problem in LLM inference, but the problems are not independent; for example, fleet provisioning depends on the routing policy, which depends on the workload mix, shifting as organizations adopt agentic and multimodal workloads. This paper distills those results into the Workload-Router-Pool (WRP) architecture, a three-dimensional framework for LLM inference optimization. Workload characterizes what the fleet serves (chat vs. agent, single-turn vs. multi-turn, warm vs. cold, prefill-heavy vs. decode-heavy). Router determines how each request is dispatched (static semantic rules, online bandit adaptation, RL-based model selection, quality-aware cascading). Pool defines where inference runs (homogeneous vs. heterogeneous GPU, disaggregated prefill/decode, KV-cache topology). We map our prior work onto a 3x3 WRP interaction matrix, identify which cells we have covered and which remain open, and propose twenty-one concrete research directions at the intersections, each grounded in our prior measurements, tiered by maturity from engineering-ready to open research.

Deploying robots in human-shared environments requires a deep understanding of how nearby agents and objects interact. Employing causal inference to model cause-and-effect relationships facilitates the prediction of human behaviours and enables the anticipation of robot interventions. However, a significant challenge arises due to the absence of implementation of existing causal discovery methods within the ROS ecosystem, the standard de-facto framework in robotics, hindering effective utilisation on real robots. To bridge this gap, in our previous work we proposed ROS-Causal, a ROS-based framework designed for onboard data collection and causal discovery in human-robot spatial interactions. In this work, we present an experimental evaluation of ROS-Causal both in simulation and on a new dataset of human-robot spatial interactions in a lab scenario, to assess its performance and effectiveness. Our analysis demonstrates the efficacy of this approach, showcasing how causal models can be extracted directly onboard by robots during data collection. The online causal models generated from the simulation are consistent with those from lab experiments. These findings can help researchers to enhance the performance of robotic systems in shared environments, firstly by studying the causal relations between variables in simulation without real people, and then facilitating the actual robot deployment in real human environments. ROS-Causal: https://lcastri.github.io/roscausal

Causal reasoning is a cornerstone of how humans interpret the world. To model and reason about causality, causal graphs offer a concise yet effective solution. Given the impressive advancements in language models, a crucial question arises: can they really understand causal graphs? To this end, we pioneer an investigation into language models' understanding of causal graphs. Specifically, we develop a framework to define causal graph understanding, by assessing language models' behaviors through four practical criteria derived from diverse disciplines (e.g., philosophy and psychology). We then develop CLEAR, a novel benchmark that defines three complexity levels and encompasses 20 causal graph-based tasks across these levels. Finally, based on our framework and benchmark, we conduct extensive experiments on six leading language models and summarize five empirical findings. Our results indicate that while language models demonstrate a preliminary understanding of causal graphs, significant potential for improvement remains. Our project website is at https://github.com/OpenCausaLab/CLEAR.

No single large language model (LLM) is optimal across all queries and budget constraints, making model routing essential for cost-effective deployment. Existing routers adopt diverse formulations and implementations, making fair comparison and extension difficult. We present a unified formulation of LLM routing as a sequential decision process characterized by five components: context encoders, model encoders, scoring functions, decision rules, and learning signals, covering single-turn, multi-turn, and personalized routing. Based on this formulation, we develop an automated pipeline for constructing routing supervision and evaluating routers jointly on response quality and inference cost. The resulting benchmark, xRouteBench, spans generic LLM, memory-augmented, vision, time-series, and personalized routing tasks. We further introduce LLMRouter, an open-source modular infrastructure with more than 16 representative routers. Our empirical study shows that learned routers outperform the strongest fixed-model baseline by 14.6% relatively, lightweight routers become more competitive under tight cost constraints, and user-conditioned routing consistently improves personalization.

Graph-based Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) enable complex cyclic workflows but suffer from inefficient static model allocation, where deploying strong models uniformly wastes computation on trivial sub-tasks. We propose CASTER (Context-Aware Strategy for Task Efficient Routing), a lightweight router for dynamic model selection in graph-based MAS. CASTER employs a Dual-Signal Router that combines semantic embeddings with structural meta-features to estimate task difficulty. During training, the router self-optimizes through a Cold Start to Iterative Evolution paradigm, learning from its own routing failures via on-policy negative feedback. Experiments using LLM-as-a-Judge evaluation across Software Engineering, Data Analysis, Scientific Discovery, and Cybersecurity demonstrate that CASTER reduces inference cost by up to 72.4% compared to strong-model baselines while matching their success rates, and consistently outperforms both heuristic routing and FrugalGPT across all domains.

We give a deterministic O(mlog^{2/3}n)-time algorithm for single-source shortest paths (SSSP) on directed graphs with real non-negative edge weights in the comparison-addition model. This is the first result to break the O(m+nlog n) time bound of Dijkstra's algorithm on sparse graphs, showing that Dijkstra's algorithm is not optimal for SSSP.

Large language models (LLMs) embedded in multi-turn agentic harnesses are reshaping software engineering (SWE), but routing every task to a frontier model is wasteful when many issues admit cheap fixes. Existing LLM routers operate on the task description alone, which inherits an information-theoretic Bayes-error floor in agentic settings: a similar issue can hide either a localized typo or a multi-module refactor, and the prompt does not separate the two. We introduce SWE-Router, a value-based temporal approach that lets a cheap model run for a few exploratory turns and reads the resulting partial trajectory before deciding whether to continue cheaply or to escalate to an expensive model. We provide a Bayes-optimality theorem showing that conditioning on the partial trajectory never harms routing and is strictly better whenever exploration is informative. Across the LLM pairs of weak and strong models spanning the contemporary cost--capability frontier, we show that SWE-Router greatly improves the cost efficiency of SWE tasks, while maintaining the majority of the performances of the stronger model. We additionally release a multi-LLM trajectory dataset which allows reproduction of our trajectory-level routing.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable performance in Machine Translation (MT), but deploying them at scale remains prohibitively expensive. A widely adopted remedy is the hybrid system paradigm, which balances cost and quality by serving most requests with a small model and selectively routing a fraction to a large model. However, existing routing strategies often rely on heuristics, external predictors, or absolute quality estimation, which fail to capture whether the large model actually provides a worthwhile improvement over the small one. In this paper, we formulate routing as a budget allocation problem and identify marginal gain, i.e., the large model's improvement over the small model, as the optimal signal for budgeted decisions. Building on this, we propose RouteLMT (routing for LLM-based MT), an efficient in-model router that predicts this expected gain by probing the small translators prompt-token representation, without requiring external models or hypothesis decoding. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our RouteLMT outperforms heuristics, quality/difficulty estimation baselines, achieving a superior quality-budget Pareto frontier. Furthermore, we analyze regression risks and show that a simple guarded variant can mitigate severe quality losses.

As large language models (LLMs) evolve into autonomous agents that execute long-horizon workflows, invoking a high-capability model at every step becomes economically unsustainable. While model routing is effective for single-turn queries, agentic routing is a sequential, path-dependent problem: early mistakes compound, feedback is often at the end of the episode, and deployments often demand strict per-task spending limits. We propose Budget-Aware Agentic Routing, which selects between a cheap and an expensive model at each step to optimize the cost--success frontier and to operate under strict per-task budgets. We propose Boundary-Guided Training, which leverages two boundary policies (always-small vs.\ always-large) to build a difficulty taxonomy and to anchor learning under sparse rewards. Our approach warms start with boundary-guided SFT data synthesis via stratified sampling of cost-efficient trajectories, then applies Boundary-Guided Policy Optimization (BoPO), combining boundary-relative rewards with a reference-guided advantage to avoid degenerate cheap-failure solutions. Experiment results show that our method improves the efficiency frontier, matching strong routing baselines at substantially lower cost while demonstrating generalization to strict inference-time budget constraints. Overall, our work establishes a foundational framework for agentic routing, shifting the paradigm from static model selection to dynamic, budget-aware sequential decision-making.

By routing input tokens to only a few split experts, Sparse Mixture-of-Experts has enabled efficient training of large language models. Recent findings suggest that fixing the routers can achieve competitive performance by alleviating the collapsing problem, where all experts eventually learn similar representations. However, this strategy has two key limitations: (i) the policy derived from random routers might be sub-optimal, and (ii) it requires extensive resources during training and evaluation, leading to limited efficiency gains. This work introduces \HyperRout, which dynamically generates the router's parameters through a fixed hypernetwork and trainable embeddings to achieve a balance between training the routers and freezing them to learn an improved routing policy. Extensive experiments across a wide range of tasks demonstrate the superior performance and efficiency gains of \HyperRouter compared to existing routing methods. Our implementation is publicly available at {{https://github.com/giangdip2410/HyperRouter}}.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) scales model capacity efficiently by selectively routing inputs to a specialized subset of experts. However, input-expert specialization, the core motivation of MoE, critically depends on whether the router is actually aware of input structure. In practice, MoE routing is typically implemented as a shallow linear projection with limited awareness of input representation, which often leads to unstable routing. We propose STAR, a Structure Aware Routing that rethinks MoE routing as a subspace learning problem by augmenting standard learnable routing with an evolving principal subspace that tracks dominant input structure via Generalized Hebbian Algorithm (GHA). By aligning routing decisions directly with input structure, STAR enables stable expert specialization. We evaluate STAR on controlled synthetic setup and large-scale language and vision tasks, where it consistently improves routing quality and downstream performance over strong MoE baselines. Moreover, optional test-time subspace updates further enhance routing robustness and generalization under input distribution shifts.

In Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO), an agent intervenes on an unknown structural causal model to maximize a downstream reward variable. In this paper, we consider the generalization where other agents or external events also intervene on the system, which is key for enabling adaptiveness to non-stationarities such as weather changes, market forces, or adversaries. We formalize this generalization of CBO as Adversarial Causal Bayesian Optimization (ACBO) and introduce the first algorithm for ACBO with bounded regret: Causal Bayesian Optimization with Multiplicative Weights (CBO-MW). Our approach combines a classical online learning strategy with causal modeling of the rewards. To achieve this, it computes optimistic counterfactual reward estimates by propagating uncertainty through the causal graph. We derive regret bounds for CBO-MW that naturally depend on graph-related quantities. We further propose a scalable implementation for the case of combinatorial interventions and submodular rewards. Empirically, CBO-MW outperforms non-causal and non-adversarial Bayesian optimization methods on synthetic environments and environments based on real-word data. Our experiments include a realistic demonstration of how CBO-MW can be used to learn users' demand patterns in a shared mobility system and reposition vehicles in strategic areas.

Large Language Model (LLM) routing is a pivotal technique for navigating a diverse landscape of LLMs, aiming to select the best-performing LLMs tailored to the domains of user queries, while managing computational resources. However, current routing approaches often face limitations in scalability when dealing with a large pool of specialized LLMs, or in their adaptability to extending model scope and evolving capability domains. To overcome those challenges, we propose InferenceDynamics, a flexible and scalable multi-dimensional routing framework by modeling the capability and knowledge of models. We operate it on our comprehensive dataset RouteMix, and demonstrate its effectiveness and generalizability in group-level routing using modern benchmarks including MMLU-Pro, GPQA, BigGenBench, and LiveBench, showcasing its ability to identify and leverage top-performing models for given tasks, leading to superior outcomes with efficient resource utilization. The broader adoption of Inference Dynamics can empower users to harness the full specialized potential of the LLM ecosystem, and our code will be made publicly available to encourage further research.

Recent work explores latent reasoning to improve reasoning efficiency by replacing explicit reasoning trajectories with continuous representations in a latent space, yet its effectiveness varies across settings. Analysis of model confidence dynamics under latent reasoning reveals that thinking trajectories ending in incorrect answers contain fewer low-confidence steps than those ending in correct answers. Meanwhile, we suggest that soft embeddings aggregated by multiple low-confidence thinking alternatives may introduce and propagate noise, leading to high confidence in unreliable reasoning trajectories. Motivated by these observations, ThinkRouter, an inference-time confidence-aware routing mechanism is proposed to avoid high confidence and noise for efficient reasoning. ThinkRouter routes thinking to the discrete token space when model confidence is low, and to the latent space otherwise. Extensive experiments on STEM reasoning and coding benchmarks across diverse large reasoning models demonstrate that ThinkRouter outperforms explicit CoT, random routing, and latent reasoning baselines in terms of accuracy, achieving an average improvement of 19.70 points in Pass@1, while reducing generation length by up to 15.55%. Further comprehensive analysis reveals that ThinkRouter can calibrate errors arising from explicit CoT and latent reasoning, and accelerates end-of-thinking token generation by globally lowering model confidence.

Adaptive hierarchical systems accumulate routing state as they learn which components to select. We show that this state already defines a coherent attribution over the hierarchy. A leaf receives the product of the local routing weights on its path, while an internal node receives the corresponding prefix product. The same learned state can therefore be read consistently at group and component levels, and every finer readout sums exactly to its coarser counterpart. This attribution describes the preferences learned by the deployed router rather than an intrinsic or counterfactual value of a component. Across LLM, Census, agentic, and telecom-network hierarchies, the learned state contains meaningful structure at several levels, and the clearest organisation need not occur at the leaves. In the telecom study, Site- or Region-level readouts usually reveal clearer structure than Cell-level readouts. Comparison with Shapley attribution can then show whether the preferences learned in deployment match capabilities revealed by counterfactual coalitions. The result is a hierarchical explanation that requires no separate attribution model: the same routing state supports consistent explanations at several levels of the system.

Cost-aware routing dynamically dispatches user queries to models of varying capability to balance performance and inference cost. However, the routing strategy introduces a new security concern that adversaries may manipulate the router to consistently select expensive high-capability models. Existing routing attacks depend on either white-box access or heuristic prompts, rendering them ineffective in real-world black-box scenarios. In this work, we propose R^2A, which aims to mislead black-box LLM routers to expensive models via adversarial suffix optimization. Specifically, R^2A deploys a hybrid ensemble surrogate router to mimic the black-box router. A suffix optimization algorithm is further adapted for the ensemble-based surrogate. Extensive experiments on multiple open-source and commercial routing systems demonstrate that {R^2A} significantly increases the routing rate to expensive models on queries of different distributions. Code and examples: https://github.com/thcxiker/R2A-Attack.

Causal discovery aims to recover directed causal relations from observational and interventional data, providing a basis for mechanistic understanding and reliable decision-making. Causal discovery foundation models (CDFMs) seek to amortize this problem by mapping a dataset directly to a causal graph in a single forward pass, avoiding per-dataset testing, search, or optimization. However, existing CDFMs remain limited, often failing to consistently match strong classical methods, and we find that a key bottleneck is how causal pretraining tasks are constructed. Based on this observation, we propose TabCausal, a data-driven CDFM trained with broad causal pretraining over diverse graph priors, structural mechanisms, noise models, dimensions, sample sizes, and intervention regimes. A dynamic task construction strategy composes these causal environments into varied discovery tasks, enabling more transferable structural learning from observational and mixed-interventional data. On large-scale synthetic benchmarks, TabCausal achieves better macro-averaged performance than a diverse set of causal discovery baselines. To further bridge abstract synthetic generators and realistic causal reasoning scenarios, we introduce a protocol-guided and LLM-audited semantic causal environment benchmark, where domain-grounded SCMs generate interpretable observational and interventional datasets for out-of-distribution analysis. Across both synthetic and semantic environments, TabCausal demonstrates robust structure recovery, especially under interventional evidence, highlighting broad causal pretraining as a key ingredient for transferable amortized causal discovery.

Interference is ubiquitous when conducting causal experiments over networks. Except for certain network structures, causal inference on the network in the presence of interference is difficult due to the entanglement between the treatment assignments and the interference levels. In this article, we conduct causal inference under interference on an observed, sparse but connected network, and we propose a novel design of experiments based on an independent set. Compared to conventional designs, the independent-set design focuses on an independent subset of data and controls their interference exposures through the assignments to the rest (auxiliary set). We provide a lower bound on the size of the independent set from a greedy algorithm , and justify the theoretical performance of estimators under the proposed design. Our approach is capable of estimating both spillover effects and treatment effects. We justify its superiority over conventional methods and illustrate the empirical performance through simulations.

With the rise of the Agent Web and Model Context Protocol (MCP), the agent ecosystem is evolving into an open collaborative network, exponentially increasing accessible tools. However, current architectures face severe scalability and generality bottlenecks. To address this, we propose ToolACE-MCP, a pipeline for training history-aware routers to empower precise navigation in large-scale ecosystems. By leveraging a dependency-rich candidate Graph to synthesize multi-turn trajectories, we effectively train routers with dynamic context understanding to create the plug-and-play Light Routing Agent. Experiments on the real-world benchmarks MCP-Universe and MCP-Mark demonstrate superior performance. Notably, ToolACE-MCP exhibits critical properties for the future Agent Web: it not only generalizes to multi-agent collaboration with minimal adaptation but also maintains exceptional robustness against noise and scales effectively to massive candidate spaces. These findings provide a strong empirical foundation for universal orchestration in open-ended ecosystems.

Diffusion models (DMs) have achieved remarkable success in image and video generation. However, they still struggle with (1) physical alignment and (2) out-of-distribution (OOD) instruction following. We argue that these issues stem from the models' failure to learn causal directions and to disentangle causal factors for novel recombination. We introduce the Causal Scene Graph (CSG) and the Physical Alignment Probe (PAP) dataset to enable diagnostic interventions. This analysis yields three key insights. First, DMs struggle with multi-hop reasoning for elements not explicitly determined in the prompt. Second, the prompt embedding contains disentangled representations for texture and physics. Third, visual causal structure is disproportionately established during the initial, computationally limited denoising steps. Based on these findings, we introduce LINA (Learning INterventions Adaptively), a novel framework that learns to predict prompt-specific interventions, which employs (1) targeted guidance in the prompt and visual latent spaces, and (2) a reallocated, causality-aware denoising schedule. Our approach enforces both physical alignment and OOD instruction following in image and video DMs, achieving state-of-the-art performance on challenging causal generation tasks and the Winoground dataset. Our project page is at https://opencausalab.github.io/LINA.

Causal analysis plays a foundational role in scientific discovery and reliable decision-making, yet it remains largely inaccessible to domain experts due to its conceptual and algorithmic complexity. This disconnect between causal methodology and practical usability presents a dual challenge: domain experts are unable to leverage recent advances in causal learning, while causal researchers lack broad, real-world deployment to test and refine their methods. To address this, we introduce Causal-Copilot, an autonomous agent that operationalizes expert-level causal analysis within a large language model framework. Causal-Copilot automates the full pipeline of causal analysis for both tabular and time-series data -- including causal discovery, causal inference, algorithm selection, hyperparameter optimization, result interpretation, and generation of actionable insights. It supports interactive refinement through natural language, lowering the barrier for non-specialists while preserving methodological rigor. By integrating over 20 state-of-the-art causal analysis techniques, our system fosters a virtuous cycle -- expanding access to advanced causal methods for domain experts while generating rich, real-world applications that inform and advance causal theory. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that Causal-Copilot achieves superior performance compared to existing baselines, offering a reliable, scalable, and extensible solution that bridges the gap between theoretical sophistication and real-world applicability in causal analysis. A live interactive demo of Causal-Copilot is available at https://causalcopilot.com/.

We present ACAR (Adaptive Complexity and Attribution Routing), a measurement framework for studying multi-model orchestration under auditable conditions. ACAR uses self-consistency variance (sigma) computed from N=3 probe samples to route tasks across single-model, two-model, and three-model execution modes. The system is implemented on top of TEAMLLM, a deterministic execution substrate with immutable artifacts and complete decision traces. We evaluate ACAR on 1,510 tasks spanning four benchmarks: MathArena, Reasoning Gym, LiveCodeBench, and SuperGPQA, using Claude Sonnet 4, GPT-4o, and Gemini 2.0 Flash, producing more than 7,550 auditable runs. Results show that sigma-based routing achieves 55.6 percent accuracy, exceeding the two-model baseline of 54.4 percent while avoiding full ensembling on 54.2 percent of tasks. The routing mechanism is model-agnostic and requires no learned components. We also document negative results. First, retrieval augmentation reduced accuracy by 3.4 percentage points, as median retrieval similarity was only 0.167, demonstrating that experience injection without semantic alignment introduces noise rather than grounding. Second, when models agree on incorrect answers (sigma equals zero), no downstream ensemble can recover; this agreement-but-wrong failure mode is intrinsic to self-consistency and bounds achievable accuracy at approximately eight percentage points below full ensembling. Third, attribution estimates based on proxy signals such as response similarity and entropy showed weak correlation with ground-truth leave-one-out values, indicating that practical attribution requires explicit counterfactual computation. This work documents which assumptions fail in practice and provides falsifiable baselines for future research on routing, retrieval, and multi-model attribution.

As the range of applications for Large Language Models (LLMs) continues to grow, the demand for effective serving solutions becomes increasingly critical. Despite the versatility of LLMs, no single model can optimally address all tasks and applications, particularly when balancing performance with cost. This limitation has led to the development of LLM routing systems, which combine the strengths of various models to overcome the constraints of individual LLMs. Yet, the absence of a standardized benchmark for evaluating the performance of LLM routers hinders progress in this area. To bridge this gap, we present RouterBench, a novel evaluation framework designed to systematically assess the efficacy of LLM routing systems, along with a comprehensive dataset comprising over 405k inference outcomes from representative LLMs to support the development of routing strategies. We further propose a theoretical framework for LLM routing, and deliver a comparative analysis of various routing approaches through RouterBench, highlighting their potentials and limitations within our evaluation framework. This work not only formalizes and advances the development of LLM routing systems but also sets a standard for their assessment, paving the way for more accessible and economically viable LLM deployments. The code and data are available at https://github.com/withmartian/routerbench.

Mixture of Experts models are widely assumed to achieve domain specialization through sparse routing. In this work, we question this assumption by introducing COMMITTEEAUDIT, a post hoc framework that analyzes routing behavior at the level of expert groups rather than individual experts. Across three representative models and the MMLU benchmark, we uncover a domain-invariant Standing Committee. This is a compact coalition of routed experts that consistently captures the majority of routing mass across domains, layers, and routing budgets, even when architectures already include shared experts. Qualitative analysis further shows that Standing Committees anchor reasoning structure and syntax, while peripheral experts handle domain-specific knowledge. These findings reveal a strong structural bias toward centralized computation, suggesting that specialization in Mixture of Experts models is far less pervasive than commonly believed. This inherent bias also indicates that current training objectives, such as load-balancing losses that enforce uniform expert utilization, may be working against the model's natural optimization path, thereby limiting training efficiency and performance.

Understanding how events in a scenario causally connect with each other is important for effectively modeling and reasoning about events. But event reasoning remains a difficult challenge, and despite recent advances, Large Language Models (LLMs) still struggle to accurately identify causal connections between events. This struggle leads to poor performance on deeper reasoning tasks like event forecasting and timeline understanding. To address this challenge, we investigate the generation of causal event graphs (e.g., A enables B) as a parallel mechanism to help LLMs explicitly represent causality during inference. This paper evaluates both how to generate correct graphs as well as how graphs can assist reasoning. We propose a collaborative approach to causal graph generation where we use LLMs to simulate experts that focus on specific semantic relations. The experts engage in multiple rounds of discussions which are then consolidated by a final expert. Then, to demonstrate the utility of causal graphs, we use them on multiple downstream applications, and also introduce a new explainable event prediction task that requires a causal chain of events in the explanation. These explanations are more informative and coherent than baseline generations. Finally, our overall approach not finetuned on any downstream task, achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art models on both forecasting and next event prediction tasks.

Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) have attracted significant attention for their strong reasoning ability. However, under a bidirectional attention mechanism, DLMs operate over an exponentially large exploration space compared to autoregressive models (ARMs), making it challenging to focus on reasoning-guiding tokens under random masking. We define causal shortcuts as token chains that cover the full sequence and provide explicit guidance towards correct reasoning trajectories. We analyze the effects of causal shortcuts on the reasoning accuracy and convergence speed of DLMs, and find that they largely improve answer convergence efficiency and generation accuracy. Motivated by this, we propose a Causal Shortcut Learning (CSL) Framework for DLMs. Specifically, we introduce a step-by-step token extraction procedure to extract causal shortcuts from data, and apply parallel prioritized masking on these tokens during training to enable efficient and accurate convergence to correct answers via causal shortcuts. Extensive experiments across multiple reasoning benchmarks and two base models demonstrate that CSL consistently outperforms existing SFT-variant baselines, achieving an average improvement of 1.92% over SFT-only models, and up to 4.20% on MATH-500. The code is available at the https://github.com/ZJUDianJin/Causal-Shortcuts-Learning{https://github.com/ZJUDianJin/Causal-Shortcuts-Learning

Recent advances in artificial intelligence reveal the limits of purely predictive systems and call for a shift toward causal and collaborative reasoning. Drawing inspiration from the revolution of Grothendieck in mathematics, we introduce the relativity of causal knowledge, which posits structural causal models (SCMs) are inherently imperfect, subjective representations embedded within networks of relationships. By leveraging category theory, we arrange SCMs into a functor category and show that their observational and interventional probability measures naturally form convex structures. This result allows us to encode non-intervened SCMs with convex spaces of probability measures. Next, using sheaf theory, we construct the network sheaf and cosheaf of causal knowledge. These structures enable the transfer of causal knowledge across the network while incorporating interventional consistency and the perspective of the subjects, ultimately leading to the formal, mathematical definition of relative causal knowledge.

We introduce CausaLab, a scalable environment for evaluating interactive causal discovery by LLM agents. Unlike prior evaluations, CausaLab evaluates both whether an agent can solve a problem using causal evidence and whether its answer is grounded in a faithful recovered causal mechanism. Each episode places an agent in a synthetic laboratory: it receives prior measurement records, intervenes on a manipulator crystal, and predicts the resonance frequency of a held-out reactor crystal governed by the same mechanism. The hidden data-generating process is a randomly sampled structural causal model (SCM), so success requires recovering both a causal graph and structural equations rather than recalling prior knowledge. Experiments show a persistent gap between prediction and mechanism recovery: in the purely observational 6-node setting, GPT-5.2-high reaches 92% task accuracy but only 0.471 all-edge F_1. Mixed observation-intervention strategies improve structural fidelity, while pure intervention remains difficult even for strong agents. We identify premature stopping as a major weakness and show that consistency verification mitigates it. CausaLab therefore separates predictive success from causal understanding and exposes current LLM agents' limits as experimental causal reasoners.

We introduce the problem of active causal structure learning with advice. In the typical well-studied setting, the learning algorithm is given the essential graph for the observational distribution and is asked to recover the underlying causal directed acyclic graph (DAG) G^* while minimizing the number of interventions made. In our setting, we are additionally given side information about G^* as advice, e.g. a DAG G purported to be G^*. We ask whether the learning algorithm can benefit from the advice when it is close to being correct, while still having worst-case guarantees even when the advice is arbitrarily bad. Our work is in the same space as the growing body of research on algorithms with predictions. When the advice is a DAG G, we design an adaptive search algorithm to recover G^* whose intervention cost is at most O(max{1, log psi}) times the cost for verifying G^*; here, psi is a distance measure between G and G^* that is upper bounded by the number of variables n, and is exactly 0 when G=G^*. Our approximation factor matches the state-of-the-art for the advice-less setting.

Modern agentic workflows decompose complex tasks into specialized subtasks and route them to diverse models to minimize cost without sacrificing quality. However, current routing architectures focus exclusively on performance optimization, leaving underlying trade-offs between model capability and cost unrecorded. Without clear rationale, developers cannot distinguish between intelligent efficiency -- using specialized models for appropriate tasks -- and latent failures caused by budget-driven model selection. We present Topaz, a framework that introduces formal auditability to agentic routing. Topaz replaces silent model assignments with an inherently interpretable router that incorporates three components: (i) skill-based profiling that synthesizes performance across diverse benchmarks into granular capability profiles (ii) fully traceable routing algorithms that utilize budget-based and multi-objective optimization to produce clear traces of how skill-match scores were weighed against costs, and (iii) developer-facing explanations that translate these traces into natural language, allowing users to audit system logic and iteratively tune the cost-quality tradeoff. By making routing decisions interpretable, Topaz enables users to understand, trust, and meaningfully steer routed agentic systems.

The availability of performant pre-trained models has led to a proliferation of fine-tuned expert models that are specialized to particular domains. This has enabled the creation of powerful and adaptive routing-based "Model MoErging" methods with the goal of using expert modules to create an aggregate system with improved performance or generalization. However, existing MoErging methods often prioritize generalization to unseen tasks at the expense of performance on held-in tasks, which limits its practical applicability in real-world deployment scenarios. We observe that current token-level routing mechanisms neglect the global semantic context of the input task. This token-wise independence hinders effective expert selection for held-in tasks, as routing decisions fail to incorporate the semantic properties of the task. To address this, we propose, Global and Local Instruction Driven Expert Router (GLIDER) that integrates a multi-scale routing mechanism, encompassing a semantic global router and a learned local router. The global router leverages LLM's advanced reasoning capabilities for semantic-related contexts to enhance expert selection. Given the input query and LLM, the router generates semantic task instructions that guide the retrieval of the most relevant experts across all layers. This global guidance is complemented by a local router that facilitates token-level routing decisions within each module, enabling finer control and enhanced performance on unseen tasks. Our experiments using T5-based models for T0 and FLAN tasks demonstrate that GLIDER achieves substantially improved held-in performance while maintaining strong generalization on held-out tasks. We also perform ablations experiments to dive deeper into the components of GLIDER. Our experiments highlight the importance of our multi-scale routing that leverages LLM-driven semantic reasoning for MoErging methods.

Existing LLM routing methods typically treat a model's single response to a query as its capability label for training routers. However, because LLM generation is inherently stochastic, such single-shot supervision provides only a noisy observation of a query-model pair's behavior rather than a reliable capability estimate. We show that this assumption introduces systematic noise into routing supervision, making learned routing policies less reliable. To address this issue, we propose DARS (Distribution-Aware Routing Supervision), a framework that constructs routing supervision from a distributional view of model behavior. Instead of relying on a single generated response, DARS considers uncertainty from both the input side and the output side, capturing how semantically equivalent query formulations and stochastic generations affect model performance. Based on these distribution-aware observations, DARS builds more reliable supervision signals for routing. Experiments across diverse tasks show that single-shot labels can be misleading for model selection, while distribution-aware supervision provides more stable labels and improves learned routing behavior. Our results suggest that reliable LLM routing should move beyond single-response observations and be grounded in query-level model capability distributions.

Fair machine learning seeks to identify and mitigate biases in predictions against unfavorable populations characterized by demographic attributes, such as race and gender. Recently, a few works have extended fairness to graph data, such as social networks, but most of them neglect the causal relationships among data instances. This paper addresses the prevalent challenge in fairness-aware ML algorithms, which typically assume Independent and Identically Distributed (IID) data. We tackle the overlooked domain of non-IID, graph-based settings where data instances are interconnected, influencing the outcomes of fairness interventions. We base our research on the Network Structural Causal Model (NSCM) framework and posit two main assumptions: Decomposability and Graph Independence, which enable the computation of interventional distributions in non-IID settings using the do-calculus. Based on that, we develop the Message Passing Variational Autoencoder for Causal Inference (MPVA) to compute interventional distributions and facilitate causally fair node classification through estimated interventional distributions. Empirical evaluations on semi-synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that MPVA outperforms conventional methods by effectively approximating interventional distributions and mitigating bias. The implications of our findings underscore the potential of causality-based fairness in complex ML applications, setting the stage for further research into relaxing the initial assumptions to enhance model fairness.

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we propose a learning paradigm that directly establishes causation between events in the course of time. We present two key lemmas to compute causal contributions and frame them as reinforcement learning problems. Our approach offers formal and computational tools for uncovering and quantifying causal relationships in diffusion processes, subsuming various important settings such as discrete-time Markov decision processes. Finally, in fairly intricate experiments and through sheer learning, our framework reveals and quantifies causal links, which otherwise seem inexplicable.

Multi-expert systems, where multiple Large Language Models (LLMs) collaborate to solve complex tasks, are increasingly adopted for high-performance reasoning and generation. However, the orchestration policies governing expert interaction and sequencing remain largely opaque. We introduce INFORM, an interpretability analysis that treats orchestration as an explicit, analyzable computation, enabling the decoupling of expert interaction structure, execution order, and functional attribution. We use INFORM to evaluate an orchestrator on GSM8K, HumanEval, and MMLU using a homogeneous consortium of ten instruction-tuned experts drawn from LLaMA-3.1 8B, Qwen3 8B, and DeepSeek-R1 8B, with controlled decoding-temperature variation, and a secondary heterogeneous consortium spanning 1B-7B parameter models. Across tasks, routing dominance is a poor proxy for functional necessity. We reveal a divergence between relational importance, captured by routing mass and interaction topology, and intrinsic importance, measured via gradient sensitivity: frequently selected experts often act as interaction hubs with limited influence, while sparsely routed experts can be structurally critical. Orchestration behaviors emerge asynchronously, with expert centralization preceding stable routing confidence and expert ordering remaining non-deterministic. Targeted ablations show that masking intrinsically important experts induces disproportionate collapse in interaction structure compared to masking frequent peers, confirming that INFORM exposes functional and structural dependencies beyond accuracy metrics alone. Our code is available at https://github.com/parmanu-lcs2/inform.

We propose a learning algorithm for local routing policies that needs only a few data samples obtained from a single graph while generalizing to all random graphs in a standard model of wireless networks. We thus solve the all-pairs near-shortest path problem by training deep neural networks (DNNs) that efficiently and scalably learn routing policies that are local, i.e., they only consider node states and the states of neighboring nodes. Remarkably, one of these DNNs we train learns a policy that exactly matches the performance of greedy forwarding; another generally outperforms greedy forwarding. Our algorithm design exploits network domain knowledge in several ways: First, in the selection of input features and, second, in the selection of a ``seed graph'' and subsamples from its shortest paths. The leverage of domain knowledge provides theoretical explainability of why the seed graph and node subsampling suffice for learning that is efficient, scalable, and generalizable. Simulation-based results on uniform random graphs with diverse sizes and densities empirically corroborate that using samples generated from a few routing paths in a modest-sized seed graph quickly learns a model that is generalizable across (almost) all random graphs in the wireless network model.

LLMs now tackle a wide range of software-related tasks, yet we show that their performance varies markedly both across and within these tasks. Routing user queries to the appropriate LLMs can therefore help improve response quality while reducing cost. Prior work, however, has focused mainly on general-purpose LLM routing via black-box models. We introduce Routesplain, the first LLM router for software-related tasks, including multilingual code generation and repair, input/output prediction, and computer science QA. Unlike existing routing approaches, Routesplain first extracts human-interpretable concepts from each query (e.g., task, domain, reasoning complexity) and only routes based on these concepts, thereby providing intelligible, faithful rationales. We evaluate Routesplain on 16 state-of-the-art LLMs across eight software-related tasks; Routesplain outperforms individual models both in terms of accuracy and cost, and equals or surpasses all black-box baselines, with concept-level intervention highlighting avenues for further router improvements.

In recent years, microservices have gained widespread adoption in IT operations due to their scalability, maintenance, and flexibility. However, it becomes challenging for site reliability engineers (SREs) to pinpoint the root cause due to the complex relationships in microservices when facing system malfunctions. Previous research employed structured learning methods (e.g., PC-algorithm) to establish causal relationships and derive root causes from causal graphs. Nevertheless, they ignored the temporal order of time series data and failed to leverage the rich information inherent in the temporal relationships. For instance, in cases where there is a sudden spike in CPU utilization, it can lead to an increase in latency for other microservices. However, in this scenario, the anomaly in CPU utilization occurs before the latency increase, rather than simultaneously. As a result, the PC-algorithm fails to capture such characteristics. To address these challenges, we propose RUN, a novel approach for root cause analysis using neural Granger causal discovery with contrastive learning. RUN enhances the backbone encoder by integrating contextual information from time series, and leverages a time series forecasting model to conduct neural Granger causal discovery. In addition, RUN incorporates Pagerank with a personalization vector to efficiently recommend the top-k root causes. Extensive experiments conducted on the synthetic and real-world microservice-based datasets demonstrate that RUN noticeably outperforms the state-of-the-art root cause analysis methods. Moreover, we provide an analysis scenario for the sock-shop case to showcase the practicality and efficacy of RUN in microservice-based applications. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/zmlin1998/RUN.

As large language models (LLMs) grow in scale and specialization, routing--selecting the best model for a given input--has become essential for efficient and effective deployment. While recent methods rely on complex learned routing strategies, their dependence on disparate training data and evaluation setups makes comparison and generalization difficult. In this work, we revisit LLM routing through the lens of simplicity. We show that a well-tuned k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) approach not only matches but often outperforms state-of-the-art learned routers across diverse tasks. To support systematic evaluation, we introduce a suite of standardized routing benchmarks spanning instruction-following, question-answering, and reasoning tasks, as well as the first multi-modal routing dataset involving visual inputs. Our findings reveal that the locality properties of model performance in embedding space enable simple non-parametric methods to achieve strong routing decisions with lower sample complexity than parametric approaches. This challenges the prevailing trend toward sophisticated architectures and highlights the importance of thoroughly evaluating simple baselines before investing in complex solutions. To support reproducibility and further exploration, we will release all benchmarks and code upon publication.

Large language models' significant advances in capabilities are accompanied by significant increases in inference costs. Model routing is a simple technique for reducing inference cost, wherein one maintains a pool of candidate LLMs, and learns to route each prompt to the smallest feasible LLM. Existing works focus on learning a router for a fixed pool of LLMs. In this paper, we consider the problem of dynamic routing, where new, previously unobserved LLMs are available at test time. We propose a new approach to this problem that relies on representing each LLM as a feature vector, derived based on predictions on a set of representative prompts. Based on this, we detail two effective strategies, relying on cluster-based routing and a learned cluster map respectively. We prove that these strategies are estimates of a theoretically optimal routing rule, and provide an excess risk bound to quantify their errors. Experiments on a range of public benchmarks show the effectiveness of the proposed strategies in routing amongst more than 30 unseen LLMs.

When an LLM-based agent improves on a task, is the gain from the model itself or from the reasoning paradigm wrapped around it? We study this question by comparing six inference-time paradigms, namely Direct, CoT, ReAct, Plan-Execute, Reflection, and ReCode, across four frontier LLMs and ten benchmarks, yielding roughly 18,000 runs. We find that reasoning structure helps dramatically on some tasks but hurts on others: ReAct improves over Direct by 44pp on GAIA, while CoT degrades performance by 15pp on HumanEval. No single paradigm dominates, and oracle per-task selection beats the best fixed paradigm by 17.1pp on average. Motivated by this complementarity, we propose a select-then-solve approach: before answering each task, a lightweight embedding-based router selects the most suitable paradigm. Across four models, the router improves average accuracy from 47.6% to 53.1%, outperforming the best fixed paradigm at 50.3% by 2.8pp and recovering up to 37% of the oracle gap. In contrast, zero-shot self-routing only works for GPT-5 at 67.1% and fails for weaker models, all trailing the learned router. Our results argue that reasoning paradigm selection should be a per-task decision made by a learned router, not a fixed architectural choice.

Inferring causal structure poses a combinatorial search problem that typically involves evaluating structures with a score or independence test. The resulting search is costly, and designing suitable scores or tests that capture prior knowledge is difficult. In this work, we propose to amortize causal structure learning. Rather than searching over structures, we train a variational inference model to directly predict the causal structure from observational or interventional data. This allows our inference model to acquire domain-specific inductive biases for causal discovery solely from data generated by a simulator, bypassing both the hand-engineering of suitable score functions and the search over graphs. The architecture of our inference model emulates permutation invariances that are crucial for statistical efficiency in structure learning, which facilitates generalization to significantly larger problem instances than seen during training. On synthetic data and semisynthetic gene expression data, our models exhibit robust generalization capabilities when subject to substantial distribution shifts and significantly outperform existing algorithms, especially in the challenging genomics domain. Our code and models are publicly available at: https://github.com/larslorch/avici.

Causal Representation Learning (CRL) aims to uncover the data-generating process and identify the underlying causal variables and relations, whose evaluation remains inherently challenging due to the requirement of known ground-truth causal variables and causal structure. Existing evaluations often rely on either simplistic synthetic datasets or downstream performance on real-world tasks, generally suffering a dilemma between realism and evaluative precision. In this paper, we introduce a new benchmark for CRL using high-fidelity simulated visual data that retains both realistic visual complexity and, more importantly, access to ground-truth causal generating processes. The dataset comprises around 200 thousand images and 3 million video frames across 24 sub-scenes in four domains: static image generation, dynamic physical simulations, robotic manipulations, and traffic situation analysis. These scenarios range from static to dynamic settings, simple to complex structures, and single to multi-agent interactions, offering a comprehensive testbed that hopefully bridges the gap between rigorous evaluation and real-world applicability. In addition, we provide flexible access to the underlying causal structures, allowing users to modify or configure them to align with the required assumptions in CRL, such as available domain labels, temporal dependencies, or intervention histories. Leveraging this benchmark, we evaluated representative CRL methods across diverse paradigms and offered empirical insights to assist practitioners and newcomers in choosing or extending appropriate CRL frameworks to properly address specific types of real problems that can benefit from the CRL perspective. Welcome to visit our: Project page:https://causal-verse.github.io/, Dataset:https://huggingface.co/CausalVerse.

PCB routing is the task of connecting the nets of a board with copper traces under strict design rules, yet learning-based methods still lag behind rule-based routers. We introduce PCBWorld, an open-source engine-grounded PCB routing environment built on KiCad, an electronic design automation (EDA) engine. As a human engineer does, agents in PCBWorld interactively route a board through the engine's native operations, guided by its Design Rule Check (DRC) feedback. The environment supports both RL and tool-using LLM agents. Alongside the environment, PCBWorld-Bench provides three board datasets in the native .kicad_pcb format, two controllable synthetic generators and 679 real open-source boards. It scores any completed board with eight engine-checked evaluation metrics, regardless of the routing method. In our experiments, agents in PCBWorld consistently outperformed grid-action RL policies and open-loop LLM baselines, and an RL policy trained only on synthetic boards transferred zero-shot to real boards, approaching rule-based routers. PCBWorld and PCBWorld-Bench are available at https://github.com/LGAI-Research/PCBWorld.

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

The deployment of large language models (LLMs) in real-world applications is increasingly limited by their high inference cost. While recent advances in dynamic token-level computation allocation attempt to improve efficiency by selectively activating model components per token, existing methods rely on greedy routing--a myopic execute-or-skip mechanism that often leads to irreversible information loss and suboptimal token selection. This paper introduces informed routing, a new paradigm that proactively addresses these issues. The key insight is to assess not only a token's immediate importance but also its recoverability, i.e., how well its transformation can be approximated. To this end, we propose the Lightweight Feature Forecaster (LFF), a small predictive module that estimates a unit's output before routing decisions are made. This enables a flexible execute-or-approximate policy that preserves model fidelity while drastically reducing computation. Extensive experiments on both language modeling and reasoning tasks show that informed routing achieves state-of-the-art efficiency-performance trade-offs across multiple sparsity levels. Notably, even without final LoRA fine-tuning, our method matches or surpasses strong baselines that require full fine-tuning, all while reducing training time by over 50%. The code is available at: https://github.com/EIT-NLP/informed-routing

Multimodal recommendation enhances ranking by integrating user-item interactions with item content, which is particularly effective under sparse feedback and long-tail distributions. However, multimodal signals are inherently heterogeneous and can conflict in specific contexts, making effective fusion both crucial and challenging. Existing approaches often rely on shared fusion pathways, leading to entangled representations and modality imbalance. To address these issues, we propose MAGNET, a Modality-Guided Mixture of Adaptive Graph Experts Network with Progressive Entropy-Triggered Routing for Multimodal Recommendation, designed to enhance controllability, stability, and interpretability in multimodal fusion. MAGNET couples interaction-conditioned expert routing with structure-aware graph augmentation, so that both what to fuse and how to fuse are explicitly controlled and interpretable. At the representation level, a dual-view graph learning module augments the interaction graph with content-induced edges, improving coverage for sparse and long-tail items while preserving collaborative structure via parallel encoding and lightweight fusion. At the fusion level, MAGNET employs structured experts with explicit modality roles-dominant, balanced, and complementary-enabling a more interpretable and adaptive combination of behavioral, visual, and textual cues. To further stabilize sparse routing and prevent expert collapse, we introduce a two-stage entropy-weighting mechanism that monitors routing entropy. This mechanism automatically transitions training from an early coverage-oriented regime to a later specialization-oriented regime, progressively balancing expert utilization and routing confidence. Extensive experiments on public benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements over strong baselines.

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) offers a powerful and general framework for learning humans' latent preferences in route recommendation, yet no approach has successfully addressed planetary-scale problems with hundreds of millions of states and demonstration trajectories. In this paper, we introduce scaling techniques based on graph compression, spatial parallelization, and improved initialization conditions inspired by a connection to eigenvector algorithms. We revisit classic IRL methods in the routing context, and make the key observation that there exists a trade-off between the use of cheap, deterministic planners and expensive yet robust stochastic policies. This insight is leveraged in Receding Horizon Inverse Planning (RHIP), a new generalization of classic IRL algorithms that provides fine-grained control over performance trade-offs via its planning horizon. Our contributions culminate in a policy that achieves a 16-24% improvement in route quality at a global scale, and to the best of our knowledge, represents the largest published study of IRL algorithms in a real-world setting to date. We conclude by conducting an ablation study of key components, presenting negative results from alternative eigenvalue solvers, and identifying opportunities to further improve scalability via IRL-specific batching strategies.

Model routing chooses which language model to use for each query. By sending easy queries to cheaper models and hard queries to stronger ones, it can significantly reduce inference cost while maintaining high accuracy. However, most existing routers treat this as a fixed choice among a small set of models, which makes them hard to adapt to new models or changing budget constraints. In this paper, we propose SCOPE (Scalable and Controllable Outcome Performance Estimator), a routing framework that goes beyond model selection by predicting their cost and performance. Trained with reinforcement learning, SCOPE makes reasoning-based predictions by retrieving how models behave on similar problems, rather than relying on fixed model names, enabling it to work with new, unseen models. Moreover, by explicitly predicting how accurate and how expensive a model will be, it turns routing into a dynamic decision problem, allowing users to easily control the trade-off between accuracy and cost. Experiments show that SCOPE is more than just a cost-saving tool. It flexibly adapts to user needs: it can boost accuracy by up to 25.7% when performance is the priority, or cut costs by up to 95.1% when efficiency matters most.

Causal discovery for dynamical systems poses a major challenge in fields where active interventions are infeasible. Most methods used to investigate these systems and their associated benchmarks are tailored to deterministic, low-dimensional and weakly nonlinear time-series data. To address these limitations, we present CausalDynamics, a large-scale benchmark and extensible data generation framework to advance the structural discovery of dynamical causal models. Our benchmark consists of true causal graphs derived from thousands of coupled ordinary and stochastic differential equations as well as two idealized climate models. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms for graph reconstruction on systems with noisy, confounded, and lagged dynamics. CausalDynamics consists of a plug-and-play, build-your-own coupling workflow that enables the construction of a hierarchy of physical systems. We anticipate that our framework will facilitate the development of robust causal discovery algorithms that are broadly applicable across domains while addressing their unique challenges. We provide a user-friendly implementation and documentation on https://kausable.github.io/CausalDynamics.

As multi-agent AI systems are increasingly deployed in real-world settings - from automated customer support to DevOps remediation - failures become harder to diagnose due to cascading effects, hidden dependencies, and long execution traces. We present AgentTrace, a lightweight causal tracing framework for post-hoc failure diagnosis in deployed multi-agent workflows. AgentTrace reconstructs causal graphs from execution logs, traces backward from error manifestations, and ranks candidate root causes using interpretable structural and positional signals - without requiring LLM inference at debugging time. Across a diverse benchmark of multi-agent failure scenarios designed to reflect common deployment patterns, AgentTrace localizes root causes with high accuracy and sub-second latency, significantly outperforming both heuristic and LLM-based baselines. Our results suggest that causal tracing provides a practical foundation for improving the reliability and trustworthiness of agentic systems in the wild.