Daily Papers

LLM agents combine models with execution harnesses, so agentic benchmark performance reflects their joint behavior. We argue that harnesses should therefore be evaluated through their interactions with underlying models. We develop a framework combining five complementary measures: (i) Valid Completion Rate (VCR), how reliably agents finish normally and deliver evaluable results, irrespective of task correctness; (ii) Model-Harness Fit, how well a harness supports task achievement through valid completion for a given model; (iii) Cross-Model Fit, a harness's overall suitability across evaluated models; (iv) Interaction Residuals, pairing-specific execution strengths and weaknesses hidden by component-level summaries; and (v) Token Load, the token demands of agent execution, including failed attempts. We evaluate four general-purpose harnesses (OpenCode, Codex CLI, Pi CLI, and DeepAgents) with four core models, plus two fixed native model-harness systems, on six benchmarks covering context management, tool use, long-context planning, multimodal interaction, and artifact handoff. Including native references and stress conditions, 111 evaluation settings yield 52,168 trajectories. Harness rankings vary across models and benchmarks; task performance and valid completion can favor different pairings, and similar task scores can accompany distinct execution profiles. OpenCode ranks first in cross-model performance, while DeepSeek V4 Flash Preview maintains consistently high Mean VCR across harnesses on the shared four-benchmark panel. These findings support evaluating model-harness interactions, training transferable harness-use capabilities in models, and harness designs adapted to the model and task.

Closed-loop human-AI systems generate high-dimensional behavioural trajectories whose collective dynamics remain obscure. Using 297,915 learners' adaptive-tutoring histories, we define semantic order variables before model fitting and test them in user-disjoint cohorts. The state exhibits reproducible basin-like flow and operationally defined, state-heterogeneous metastable-like kinetics. A construction-matched null distinguishes normalised-memory relaxation from a reproducible excess field. A four-term conditional mechanism recovers population drift (r = 0.946; learner-bootstrap 95% CI, 0.935-0.955). Predictive event-level self-supervised learning recovers the state and learned-plane flow; null-referenced corrections retain directional, partial-amplitude excess-field structure without full calibration. Shuffled-order training reverses learned-plane flow on ordered trajectories; support-alignment randomisation selectively reduces inward transport. Both axes remain linearly accessible without state supervision. Without cross-model fitting, the models share leading population drift (r = 0.866; learner-bootstrap 95% CI, 0.857-0.875) and persistence ordering; residual directions remain model-specific. These results identify an externally anchored leading-order effective field linking empirical dynamics, an interpretable mechanism and neural computation.

Production deployments often swap between different-sized models in a family for cost-quality cascading, mid-conversation switching, and routing, and each swap forces the receiver to repay the prefill from scratch. We propose cross-model KV cache transfer, where the receiver reuses the source's KV cache, skipping prefill. We find that cross-model KV has substantial linear structure across matched-KV pairs, where source and target share KV head count and per-head dimension. On Qwen3 14B->32B, one source layer explains 56% of variance in the target's keys and 32% in values, rising to 79% and 65% with multiple source layers. Building on this, we design a closed-form ridge mapper that operates per head and proceeds in three steps. First, for each target layer we select the top-k most predictive source layers and concatenate their KV as input. Second, we strip RoPE from the keys before mapping, so the fit is position-free and reusable across context lengths. Third, we fit ridge regression on a small calibration set of 500 FineWeb-Edu sequences of 1,024 tokens each. Surprisingly, across six pairs in three families, this linear mapper retains 73-98% of the receiver's standalone-prefill accuracy on four pairs, while two degrade sharply. A nonlinear MLP recovers up to +37 pp HellaSwag retention on the failures. The mapper runs 2.7-25x faster than re-prefill and remains stable across multi-turn handoff, making cross-model KV cache transfer practical.

Sharing context between LLMs in a multi-model system requires the receiving model to prefill the shared prefix because KV caches are model-specific. Recent closed-form cross-model KV transfer, hereafter Full-Head Mapping, avoids this replay by fitting a training-free affine mapper from source to target caches. However, its full-head design maps each target KV head from every source KV head in the selected layers, making transfer quality sensitive to architectural differences and causing mapper storage and application cost to grow with layer support. To this end, we introduce CacheBridge, which co-designs architecture-indexed mapper support, attention-aligned calibration, and bounded mapper construction while retaining a closed-form affine interface for online deployment. CacheBridge restricts each target head to a matched source head, weights reconstruction errors by causal attention sensitivity, and uses a fused GPU kernel to construct weighted sufficient statistics without materializing full observation tensors. Across three transfer directions, CacheBridge recovers the two Ministral 3 transfer directions where Full-Head Mapping loses substantial accuracy while preserving 99.83\% mean target retention on Qwen3. On Qwen3 14Bto32B, it reduces mapper storage by 8times, accelerates application by up to 3.0times, matches \fullhead with one tenth of the calibration data, and reduces 500-sequence construction from 92.63 to 8.63 seconds (10.7times).

Recent progress in generative modeling has made safety control a central challenge, yet existing approaches remain largely model-specific, requiring retraining or tailored interventions for each new architecture. In this work, we ask whether safety can be represented as a portable latent direction, learned once and reused across heterogeneous generators. We introduce the first framework for cross-model safety steering, in which a safety direction is estimated in a source LLM from paired safe-unsafe prompts, transported to a target generator through a lightweight alignment fitted on benign data alone, and applied at inference time. Crucially, our pipeline never accesses unsafe data on the target side, isolating whether safety can be transferred through shared representation geometry. Beyond a single global direction, we also identify a multi-vector extension that captures category-specific safety behaviors, enabling more selective control. We evaluate our approach in text-to-image and text-to-video generation across diverse source-target model pairs. Across models, transferred safety directions achieve ASR reduction and CLIP-Score/FID trade-offs comparable to directions learned natively on the target model using unsafe data, while requiring no target-side unsafe data. This indicates that safety improvements do not come at the expense of generation quality. Our results point to a modular view of safety: safety-relevant behavior is not purely model-local, but can be controlled through latent directions that persist across models. This suggests a new path toward lightweight, reusable safety mechanisms that do not require target-side unsafe data.

Causal discovery for both cross-sectional and temporal data has traditionally followed a dataset-specific paradigm, where a new model is fitted for each individual dataset. Such an approach limits the potential of multi-dataset pretraining. The concept of large causal models (LCMs) envisions a class of pre-trained neural architectures specifically designed for temporal causal discovery. Prior approaches are constrained to small variable counts, degrade with larger inputs, and rely heavily on synthetic data, limiting generalization. We propose a principled framework for LCMs, combining diverse synthetic generators with realistic time-series datasets, allowing learning at scale. Extensive experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic and realistic benchmarks show that LCMs scale effectively to higher variable counts and deeper architectures while maintaining strong performance. Trained models achieve competitive or superior accuracy compared to classical and neural baselines, particularly in out-of-distribution settings, while enabling fast, single-pass inference. Results demonstrate LCMs as a promising foundation-model paradigm for temporal causal discovery. Experiments and model weights are available at https://github.com/kougioulis/LCM-paper/.

Hyperparameter tuning almost always means search: fit the model at every value on a grid, score each by cross-validation, and keep the winner. For spline regression that search is unnecessary. The optimal resolution can be solved for in closed form, to the accuracy an exhaustive search reaches, at a fraction of the compute. Three ingredients make this possible: classical approximation theory pins the squared bias to a known power of the resolution G, exactly the Kolmogorov n-width of the smoothness class; the basis dimension is an explicit polynomial in G; and leave-one-out error follows from a single fit via the PRESS identity. Balancing the two known curves gives the minimizer analytically. We extend this calculus to many coordinates by replacing ambient input dimension with interaction order, the number of active low-order components in an ANOVA decomposition, yielding a scaling law in which the optimal resolution and error are power functions of the effective density (sample size per active component), with input dimension absent from the exponent. The law becomes an algorithm. KORE (Kolmogorov-optimal Order-aware Resolution Estimation) fits two pilot resolutions, solves a leverage-calibrated 2x2 system for the bias and noise scales, and evaluates the closed-form plug-in resolution with a tiny leave-one-out certificate: about a dozen fits instead of a full grid sweep, with a consistency guarantee as the sample grows. Across additive and sparse pairwise targets up to 80 input dimensions, KORE matches exhaustive 3-fold cross-validation and the full classical ladder (GCV, Mallows' Cp, AIC, BIC) while fitting roughly 8x fewer models; on 36 real tabular datasets it ranks first among 21 methods in accuracy per unit of compute, ahead of tuned boosters and kernel machines. When complexity lives in low interaction order, solving for the resolution beats searching for it.

We present results from a large-scale experiment on pretraining encoders with non-embedding parameter counts ranging from 700M to 9.3B, their subsequent distillation into smaller models ranging from 17M-170M parameters, and their application to the Natural Language Understanding (NLU) component of a virtual assistant system. Though we train using 70% spoken-form data, our teacher models perform comparably to XLM-R and mT5 when evaluated on the written-form Cross-lingual Natural Language Inference (XNLI) corpus. We perform a second stage of pretraining on our teacher models using in-domain data from our system, improving error rates by 3.86% relative for intent classification and 7.01% relative for slot filling. We find that even a 170M-parameter model distilled from our Stage 2 teacher model has 2.88% better intent classification and 7.69% better slot filling error rates when compared to the 2.3B-parameter teacher trained only on public data (Stage 1), emphasizing the importance of in-domain data for pretraining. When evaluated offline using labeled NLU data, our 17M-parameter Stage 2 distilled model outperforms both XLM-R Base (85M params) and DistillBERT (42M params) by 4.23% to 6.14%, respectively. Finally, we present results from a full virtual assistant experimentation platform, where we find that models trained using our pretraining and distillation pipeline outperform models distilled from 85M-parameter teachers by 3.74%-4.91% on an automatic measurement of full-system user dissatisfaction.

Effective training of today's large language models (LLMs) depends on large batches and long sequences for throughput and accuracy. To handle variable-length sequences on hardware accelerators, it is common practice to introduce padding tokens, so that all sequences in a batch have the same length. We show in this paper that the variation in sequence lengths in common NLP datasets is such that up to 50% of all tokens can be padding. In less common, but not extreme, cases (e.g. GLUE-cola with sequence length 128), the ratio is up to 89%. Existing methods to address the resulting inefficiency are complicated by the need to avoid cross-contamination in self-attention, by a reduction in accuracy when sequence ordering information is lost, or by customized kernel implementations only valid for specific accelerators. This paper introduces a new formalization of sequence packing in the context of the well-studied bin packing problem, and presents new algorithms based on this formulation which, for example, confer a 2x speedup for phase 2 pre-training in BERT. We show how existing models can be adapted to ensure mathematical equivalence between the original and packed models, meaning that packed models can be trained with existing pre-training and fine-tuning practices.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as synthetic users, stand-ins for human respondents whose simulated answers feed product, policy, and market decisions. We ask when this substitution is valid and when it fails, and package the answer as an evaluation framework for intelligent synthetic-user systems. A single protocol, run across four models spanning two families and an 8B-to-frontier capability range, is applied to two independent domains of real human-response data: U.S. general social attitudes (General Social Survey) and cross-cultural values (World Values Survey). Every model is benchmarked against a suite of non-LLM baselines fit on held-out human data. Under demographic prompting and the survey-simulation protocols we test, two failures replicate across both domains, all four models, and both families. First, at the individual level no LLM beats even the strongest baseline; on cross-cultural values every model falls well below it, and the gap survives distance-aware and proper scoring. Second, models systematically over-determine demographics, treating identity as far more predictive of attitudes than it is among real people, a distortion present for nearly every question-group combination and robust to a coding-invariant measure. Neither failure is remedied by a larger, more capable model. A decision-impact analysis shows why this matters in practice: on a segment-targeting task the models inflate between-segment gaps two to fourfold, would direct a team to the wrong segment in half of U.S. and most cross-cultural cases, and manufacture segment splits that do not exist in real people. We make the cross-domain benchmark and the evaluation framework available on request, so that teams can determine in advance when synthetic-user evidence is safe for decision support and when it is not.

A dynamical model based on a phenomenological charm quark-nucleon(c-N) potential v_{cN} and the Pomeron-exchange mechanism is constructed to investigate the J/Psi photo-production on the nucleon from threshold to invariant mass W=300 GeV. The J/Psi-N potential,V_{J/Psi N}(r),is constructed by folding v_{cN} into the wavefunction Phi_{J/Psi}(cc) of J/Psi within a Constituent Quark Model(CQM) of Ref.[43]. A photo-production amplitude is also generated by v_{cN} by a cc-loop integration over the gammarightarrow cc vertex function and Phi_{J/Psi}(cc). No commonly used Vector Meson Dominance assumption is used to define this photo-production amplitude which is needed to describe the data near the threshold. The potential v_{cN}(r) is parameterized in a form such that the predicted V_{J/Psi N}(r) at large distances has the same Yukawa potential form extracted from a Lattice QCD(LQCD) calculation of Ref.[18]. The parameters of v_{cN} are determined by fitting the total cross section data of JLab by performing calculations that include J/Psi-N final state interactions(FSI). The resulting differential cross sections are found in good agreements with the data. It is shown that the FSI effects dominate the cross section in the very near threshold region, allowing for sensitive testing of the predicted J/Psi-N scattering amplitudes. By imposing the constraints of J/Psi-N potential extracted from the LQCD calculation, we have obtained three J/Psi-N potentials which fit the JLab data equally well. The resulting J/Psi-N scattering lengths are in the range of a=(-0.05 fm sim -0.25 fm). With the determined v_{cN}(r) and the wavefunctions generated from the same CQM, the constructed model is used to predict the cross sections of photo-production of eta_c(1S) and Psi(2S) mesons for future experimental tests.

We study empirical scaling laws for language model merging measured by cross-entropy. Despite its wide practical use, merging lacks a quantitative rule that predicts returns as we add experts or scale the model size. We identify a compact power law that links model size and expert number: the size-dependent floor decreases with model capacity, while the merging tail exhibits clear diminishing returns in the number of experts. The law holds in-domain and cross-domain, tightly fits measured curves across diverse architectures and methods (Average, TA, TIES, DARE), and explains two robust regularities: most gains arrive early, and variability shrinks as more experts are included. Building on this, we present a simple theory that explains why gains fall roughly as 1/k and links the floor and tail to properties of the base model and the diversity across domains. This law enables predictive planning: estimate how many experts are needed to reach a target loss, decide when to stop adding experts, and trade off scaling the base model versus adding experts under a fixed budget--turning merging from heuristic practice into a computationally efficient, planable alternative to multitask training. This suggests a scaling principle for distributed generative AI: predictable gains can be achieved by composing specialists, offering a complementary path toward AGI-level systems.

Longitudinal observational data are often subject to informative missingness. For example, in healthcare research using electronic health records, covariates and outcomes are measured only when patients interact with the healthcare system. Whether these data are observed usually depends on the unobserved variable values themselves, introducing a common form of data missing not at random. We develop identification and estimation methods for the effects of longitudinal modified treatment policies under a self-censoring model which explicitly models this dependence. We consider effects of treatments that can be modified only at measurement times (e.g., interactions with the heathcare system). We study two settings: one in which the observed history suffices for treatment confounding control, and another in which confounder control requires covariate values that were not measured at missed visits. In both settings, we combine longitudinal causal identification with shadow-variable conditional moment restrictions to obtain recursive identification formulas for the counterfactual outcome mean. We derive gradients of the pathwise derivatives and second-order remainder expansions, and use these results to construct estimators that accommodate machine learning for nuisance-function estimation. Under suitable product-rate conditions and cross-fitting, the estimators are asymptotically linear and permit root-n inference, including simultaneous inference across outcome times. We also describe conditional-moment learning and ensemble approaches for estimating the nuisance functions required by our approach, together with a pool-and-smooth strategy that borrows information across sparsely measured outcomes.

Image-based virtual try-on aims to transfer target in-shop clothing to a dressed model image, the objectives of which are totally taking off original clothing while preserving the contents outside of the try-on area, naturally wearing target clothing and correctly inpainting the gap between target clothing and original clothing. Tremendous efforts have been made to facilitate this popular research area, but cannot keep the type of target clothing with the try-on area affected by original clothing. In this paper, we focus on the unpaired virtual try-on situation where target clothing and original clothing on the model are different, i.e., the practical scenario. To break the correlation between the try-on area and the original clothing and make the model learn the correct information to inpaint, we propose an adaptive mask training paradigm that dynamically adjusts training masks. It not only improves the alignment and fit of clothing but also significantly enhances the fidelity of virtual try-on experience. Furthermore, we for the first time propose two metrics for unpaired try-on evaluation, the Semantic-Densepose-Ratio (SDR) and Skeleton-LPIPS (S-LPIPS), to evaluate the correctness of clothing type and the accuracy of clothing texture. For unpaired try-on validation, we construct a comprehensive cross-try-on benchmark (Cross-27) with distinctive clothing items and model physiques, covering a broad try-on scenarios. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods, contributing to the advancement of virtual try-on technology and offering new insights and tools for future research in the field. The code, model and benchmark will be publicly released.

This paper discusses pairing double/debiased machine learning (DDML) with stacking, a model averaging method for combining multiple candidate learners, to estimate structural parameters. In addition to conventional stacking, we consider two stacking variants available for DDML: short-stacking exploits the cross-fitting step of DDML to substantially reduce the computational burden and pooled stacking enforces common stacking weights over cross-fitting folds. Using calibrated simulation studies and two applications estimating gender gaps in citations and wages, we show that DDML with stacking is more robust to partially unknown functional forms than common alternative approaches based on single pre-selected learners. We provide Stata and R software implementing our proposals.

Predicting the fitness impact of mutations is central to protein engineering but constrained by limited assays relative to the size of sequence space. Protein language models (pLMs) trained with masked language modeling (MLM) exhibit strong zero-shot fitness prediction; we provide a unifying view by interpreting natural evolution as implicit reward maximization and MLM as inverse reinforcement learning (IRL), in which extant sequences act as expert demonstrations and pLM log-odds serve as fitness estimates. Building on this perspective, we introduce EvoIF, a lightweight model that integrates two complementary sources of evolutionary signal: (i) within-family profiles from retrieved homologs and (ii) cross-family structural-evolutionary constraints distilled from inverse folding logits. EvoIF fuses sequence-structure representations with these profiles via a compact transition block, yielding calibrated probabilities for log-odds scoring. On ProteinGym (217 mutational assays; >2.5M mutants), EvoIF and its MSA-enabled variant achieve state-of-the-art or competitive performance while using only 0.15% of the training data and fewer parameters than recent large models. Ablations confirm that within-family and cross-family profiles are complementary, improving robustness across function types, MSA depths, taxa, and mutation depths. The codes will be made publicly available.

Scaling embedding capacity alongside Transformer computation is an emerging trend in language models. This trend makes high compression rates increasingly useful. Hence, we study extreme compression of Per-Layer Embeddings (PLE), which follow this trend and account for 35.2% of the parameters of Gemma 4 E4B. At such rates, conventional quantizers give each token-layer vector its own code of only a few bytes. We instead develop OPTIC (Output-Path-fitted, Token-shared Indexed Codes), which stores one quantized code tuple per token and decodes it at every layer with a layer-specific affine decoder. Codes and decoders are fitted to the PLE output path rather than to the stored vectors. At about 100times PLE compression of bfloat16 (BF16) E4B, OPTIC retains an aggregate 97.8% of the uncompressed model's performance across seven benchmarks, whereas product quantization, the strongest of six conventional baselines, retains 66.3%. At 594times and 1,002times PLE compression of BF16 E4B, OPTIC retains 90.5% and 84.1%. On the official E4B release with 4-bit linear weights and 16-bit activations (W4A16), OPTIC retains 96.9% at about 100times PLE compression. During inference at about 100times PLE compression, BF16 E4B uses 29.7% less GPU memory than with uncompressed PLE at the same key-value cache size, while running at most 0.40% slower.

Diffusion language models offer a promising alternative to autoregressive models due to their potential for parallel and iterative generation. However, existing approaches use a single network for both context representation and iterative denoising, forcing one model to serve both roles and limiting its capacity for either role. We propose TwoTower, a block-wise autoregressive diffusion model that decouples these roles into two towers: a frozen AR context tower that causally processes clean tokens, and a trainable diffusion denoiser tower with bidirectional block attention that refines noisy blocks via cross-attention to the context. Built on Nemotron-3-Nano-30B-A3B, an open-weight 30B hybrid Mamba-Transformer MoE model, and trained on approximately 2.1T tokens, Nemotron-TwoTower retains 98.7% of the autoregressive baseline's quality while offering 2.42X higher wall-clock generation throughput. We release the code and model weights at https://huggingface.co/collections/nvidia/nemotron-twotower.

Single-cell trajectory inference maps transcriptomic measurements onto developmental continua, yet configurations that fit the data equally well can assign conflicting cell fates. FateMultiplicity is a label-free framework that constructs a statistically admissible model set, or Rashomon set, without lineage labels, by evaluating model discrepancy on cross-fitted held-out genes under non-inferiority testing calibrated against random-seed variation. Multiplicity is large and depends more on the diversity of the model space than its size: twelve configurations of a second algorithm expose 20.0% of cells where twenty-four of the first expose 3.8%. Whether the per-cell certified fate margin FM yields more reliable assignments than the fitted model already provides is then tested, and it does not. On simulation ground truth, on the same cells, FM discriminates misassignment at AUC 0.682, against 0.965 for the baseline configuration's own decision margin (p = 0.003) and 0.854 for a seed-dispersion baseline. Informativeness is governed by the breadth of the admitted set, not its cardinality: at cardinality four, seed refits give 0.933 and hyperparameter-perturbed sets 0.701. Relaxing the infimum to a q-quantile recovers discrimination but converges toward the single model's own confidence; the supremum reaches 0.973 because theta*'s membership bounds it from below, while the infimum is unanchored. Multiplicity in trajectory inference is worth measuring and reporting, but per-cell certification over a label-free Rashomon set is not a route to more reliable fate calls. Two constructions survive: a margin-erosion ratio separates real from spurious branch points in simulation (AUC 0.890, untested on real data), and against clonally observed fate, uncertified cells disagree with their clone's outcome 16.4 percentage points more often than certified cells (p < 0.001).

Scaling data, diversity and model capacity has improved embodied learning in physical environments, where diverse experiences remain grounded in shared physical laws. Whether these gains extend to virtual worlds with different visual styles, dynamics, controls, and objectives remains unclear. We investigate this question through a controlled study of continued pre-training (CPT) across three axes: data volume, diversity, and model size. Our 120 training configurations span four model sizes from 0.8B to 27B, six data budgets from 50 to 1,600 hours, and five mixtures ranging from Minecraft-only data to diverse multi-world corpora. We assess performance and generalization using three-level validation losses and gameplay benchmarks from in-corpus worlds to unseen worlds. Our results show: (1) more data improves in-corpus performance, diversity improves transfer to related worlds with limited gains in distant worlds, and model size improves data efficiency but generalizes worse to distant worlds under single-world training; (2) we observe an early interface phase with broad cross-world benefits and a later world phase with gains narrowed to in-corpus and related worlds, and fit an empirical scaling law relating validation loss to data volume, diversity and model size; and (3) our models are competitive with Minecraft specialists and frontier models in 3D worlds, and perform best in real-time settings. However, the limits of imitation and persistent gaps in distant worlds suggest that building generalist embodied agents requires richer training stages beyond continued pre-training.

Point cloud registration has seen significant advancements with the application of deep learning techniques. However, existing approaches often overlook the potential of integrating radiometric information from RGB images. This limitation reduces their effectiveness in aligning point clouds pairs, especially in regions where geometric data alone is insufficient. When used effectively, radiometric information can enhance the registration process by providing context that is missing from purely geometric data. In this paper, we propose CoFF, a novel Cross-modal Feature Fusion method that utilizes both point cloud geometry and RGB images for pairwise point cloud registration. Assuming that the co-registration between point clouds and RGB images is available, CoFF explicitly addresses the challenges where geometric information alone is unclear, such as in regions with symmetric similarity or planar structures, through a two-stage fusion of 3D point cloud features and 2D image features. It incorporates a cross-modal feature fusion module that assigns pixel-wise image features to 3D input point clouds to enhance learned 3D point features, and integrates patch-wise image features with superpoint features to improve the quality of coarse matching. This is followed by a coarse-to-fine matching module that accurately establishes correspondences using the fused features. We extensively evaluate CoFF on four common datasets: 3DMatch, 3DLoMatch, IndoorLRS, and the recently released ScanNet++ datasets. In addition, we assess CoFF on specific subset datasets containing geometrically ambiguous cases. Our experimental results demonstrate that CoFF achieves state-of-the-art registration performance across all benchmarks, including remarkable registration recalls of 95.9% and 81.6% on the widely-used 3DMatch and 3DLoMatch datasets, respectively...(Truncated to fit arXiv abstract length)

This report introduces a new family of multimodal models, Gemini, that exhibit remarkable capabilities across image, audio, video, and text understanding. The Gemini family consists of Ultra, Pro, and Nano sizes, suitable for applications ranging from complex reasoning tasks to on-device memory-constrained use-cases. Evaluation on a broad range of benchmarks shows that our most-capable Gemini Ultra model advances the state of the art in 30 of 32 of these benchmarks - notably being the first model to achieve human-expert performance on the well-studied exam benchmark MMLU, and improving the state of the art in every one of the 20 multimodal benchmarks we examined. We believe that the new capabilities of Gemini models in cross-modal reasoning and language understanding will enable a wide variety of use cases and we discuss our approach toward deploying them responsibly to users.

Modern deep learning models have the ability to generate high-dimensional vectors whose similarity reflects semantic resemblance. Thus, similarity search, i.e., the operation of retrieving those vectors in a large collection that are similar to a given query, has become a critical component of a wide range of applications that demand highly accurate and timely answers. In this setting, the high vector dimensionality puts similarity search systems under compute and memory pressure, leading to subpar performance. Additionally, cross-modal retrieval tasks have become increasingly common, e.g., where a user inputs a text query to find the most relevant images for that query. However, these queries often have different distributions than the database embeddings, making it challenging to achieve high accuracy. In this work, we present LeanVec, a framework that combines linear dimensionality reduction with vector quantization to accelerate similarity search on high-dimensional vectors while maintaining accuracy. We present LeanVec variants for in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) queries. LeanVec-ID yields accuracies on par with those from recently introduced deep learning alternatives whose computational overhead precludes their usage in practice. LeanVec-OOD uses a novel technique for dimensionality reduction that considers the query and database distributions to simultaneously boost the accuracy and the performance of the framework even further (even presenting competitive results when the query and database distributions match). All in all, our extensive and varied experimental results show that LeanVec produces state-of-the-art results, with up to 3.7x improvement in search throughput and up to 4.9x faster index build time over the state of the art.

Scientific images are the core elements of presenting experimental conclusions, elaborating system architecture, and supporting comparative arguments in scientific papers. However, existing image quality assessment (IQA) methods are predominantly designed for natural photographs or AI-generated content, which cannot be directly applied to scientific papers. The few existing studies on scholarly charts remain confined to visual-surface comparisons, failing to verify caption alignment, citation relevance, or visual misleadingness. To address this, we propose SciFigQual-Bench, a full-text contextual benchmark that evaluates scientific images across five dimensions (clarity, layout, caption fit, context relevance, and misleading risk). The data covers top computer-science conferences from 2020 to 2025; 6,308 images were independently scored by multiple domain experts in five dimensions and aggregated into gold-standard annotations. Unlike previous scientific figure benchmarks, our dataset binds each image to its caption, citing sentence, and manuscript context. To enable automated evaluation on this benchmark, we designed a staged cross-modal evaluation framework SFQ-Agent to achieve auditable and refined scoring through the collection and fusion of modal evidence. Multiple mainstream large models were evaluated on the test subset eval1200, and SFQ-Agent (F3) equipped with GPT-5.6-Sol achieved the lowest overall average absolute error (0.418) and the highest consistency rate (93.4%), consistently outperforming both direct evaluation and auxiliary (Sidecar) visual language model evaluation schemes.

Evaluating whether multimodal large language models truly understand long-form scientific papers remains challenging: answer-only metrics and synthetic "Needle-In-A-Haystack" tests often reward answer matching without requiring a causal, evidence-linked reasoning trace in the document. We propose the "Fish-in-the-Ocean" (FITO) paradigm, which requires models to construct explicit cross-modal evidence chains within native scientific documents. To operationalize FITO, we build SIN-Data, a scientific interleaved corpus that preserves the native interleaving of text and figures. On top of it, we construct SIN-Bench with four progressive tasks covering evidence discovery (SIN-Find), hypothesis verification (SIN-Verify), grounded QA (SIN-QA), and evidence-anchored synthesis (SIN-Summary). We further introduce "No Evidence, No Score", scoring predictions when grounded to verifiable anchors and diagnosing evidence quality via matching, relevance, and logic. Experiments on eight MLLMs show that grounding is the primary bottleneck: Gemini-3-pro achieves the best average overall score (0.573), while GPT-5 attains the highest SIN-QA answer accuracy (0.767) but underperforms on evidence-aligned overall scores, exposing a gap between correctness and traceable support.

There has been a recent surge of interest in time series modeling using the Transformer architecture. However, forecasting multivariate time series with Transformer presents a unique challenge as it requires modeling both temporal (cross-time) and variate (cross-variate) dependencies. While Transformer-based models have gained popularity for their flexibility in capturing both sequential and cross-variate relationships, it is unclear how to best integrate these two sources of information in the context of the Transformer architecture while optimizing for both performance and efficiency. We re-purpose the Transformer architecture to effectively model both cross-time and cross-variate dependencies. Our approach begins by embedding each variate independently into a variate-wise representation that captures its cross-time dynamics, and then models cross-variate dependencies through attention mechanisms on these learned embeddings. Gating operations in both cross-time and cross-variate modeling phases regulate information flow, allowing the model to focus on the most relevant features for accurate predictions. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance across 13 real-world datasets and can be seamlessly integrated into other Transformer-based and LLM-based forecasters, delivering performance improvements up to 20.7\% over original models. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/nyuolab/Gateformer.

Model diffing, the process of comparing models' internal representations to identify their differences, is a promising approach for uncovering safety-critical behaviors in new models. However, its application has so far been primarily focused on comparing a base model with its finetune. Since new LLM releases are often novel architectures, cross-architecture methods are essential to make model diffing widely applicable. Crosscoders are one solution capable of cross-architecture model diffing but have only ever been applied to base vs finetune comparisons. We provide the first application of crosscoders to cross-architecture model diffing and introduce Dedicated Feature Crosscoders (DFCs), an architectural modification designed to better isolate features unique to one model. Using this technique, we find in an unsupervised fashion features including Chinese Communist Party alignment in Qwen3-8B and Deepseek-R1-0528-Qwen3-8B, American exceptionalism in Llama3.1-8B-Instruct, and a copyright refusal mechanism in GPT-OSS-20B. Together, our results work towards establishing cross-architecture crosscoder model diffing as an effective method for identifying meaningful behavioral differences between AI models.

Entity matching identifies records that refer to the same real-world entity. Language models can be adapted to this task through bi-encoder, cross-encoder, and generative matcher architectures. However, prior studies often conflate matcher architecture with differences in model backbone, model variant(reflecting different pretraining objectives), and model size, making it difficult to isolate the sources of performance gains. We address this issue through a controlled factorial study spanning three matcher architectures, three model variants and three model sizes from the Qwen3 family, and nine datasets, totaling 1,215 fine-tuning runs. We also evaluate cross-dataset transferability and computational cost. Our results show that model variant is critical for bi-encoders: embedding-oriented variants provide stronger initialization and more favorable representation geometry predictive of downstream matching performance. Cross-encoders retain a consistent advantage over bi-encoders because they jointly encode record pairs rather than representing each record independently, although larger models partially narrow this gap. Generative matchers do not universally outperform cross-encoders. Instead, their advantages concentrate under distribution shift, including subtle unseen differences in record schemas and cross-dataset transfer. We further find that larger models rely more heavily on shortcut learning and therefore do not necessarily perform better. These findings clarify the factors underlying performance differences across matcher architectures and motivate future research and benchmark designs that better disentangle architectural choices from model-level factors while explicitly evaluating distribution shift and cross-dataset transferability. We release our experimental results, code, training scripts, and evaluation data at https://github.com/Jantory/llm-trained-matcher.

As new products are emerging daily, recommendation systems are required to quickly adapt to possible new domains without needing extensive retraining. This work presents ``X-Cross'' -- a novel cross-domain sequential-recommendation model that recommends products in new domains by integrating several domain-specific language models; each model is fine-tuned with low-rank adapters (LoRA). Given a recommendation prompt, operating layer by layer, X-Cross dynamically refines the representation of each source language model by integrating knowledge from all other models. These refined representations are propagated from one layer to the next, leveraging the activations from each domain adapter to ensure domain-specific nuances are preserved while enabling adaptability across domains. Using Amazon datasets for sequential recommendation, X-Cross achieves performance comparable to a model that is fine-tuned with LoRA, while using only 25% of the additional parameters. In cross-domain tasks, such as adapting from Toys domain to Tools, Electronics or Sports, X-Cross demonstrates robust performance, while requiring about 50%-75% less fine-tuning data than LoRA to make fine-tuning effective. Furthermore, X-Cross achieves significant improvement in accuracy over alternative cross-domain baselines. Overall, X-Cross enables scalable and adaptive cross-domain recommendations, reducing computational overhead and providing an efficient solution for data-constrained environments.

Cross-validation (CV) is one of the most popular tools for assessing and selecting predictive models. However, standard CV suffers from high computational cost when the number of folds is large. Recently, under the empirical risk minimization (ERM) framework, a line of works proposed efficient methods to approximate CV based on the solution of the ERM problem trained on the full dataset. However, in large-scale problems, it can be hard to obtain the exact solution of the ERM problem, either due to limited computational resources or due to early stopping as a way of preventing overfitting. In this paper, we propose a new paradigm to efficiently approximate CV when the ERM problem is solved via an iterative first-order algorithm, without running until convergence. Our new method extends existing guarantees for CV approximation to hold along the whole trajectory of the algorithm, including at convergence, thus generalizing existing CV approximation methods. Finally, we illustrate the accuracy and computational efficiency of our method through a range of empirical studies.

We propose causal isotonic calibration, a novel nonparametric method for calibrating predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects. Furthermore, we introduce cross-calibration, a data-efficient variant of calibration that eliminates the need for hold-out calibration sets. Cross-calibration leverages cross-fitted predictors and generates a single calibrated predictor using all available data. Under weak conditions that do not assume monotonicity, we establish that both causal isotonic calibration and cross-calibration achieve fast doubly-robust calibration rates, as long as either the propensity score or outcome regression is estimated accurately in a suitable sense. The proposed causal isotonic calibrator can be wrapped around any black-box learning algorithm, providing robust and distribution-free calibration guarantees while preserving predictive performance.

Social scientists use surveys to probe the opinions and beliefs of populations, but these methods are slow, costly, and prone to biases. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) enable creating computational representations or "digital twins" of populations that generate human-like responses mimicking the population's language, styles, and attitudes. We introduce Community-Cross-Instruct, an unsupervised framework for aligning LLMs to online communities to elicit their beliefs. Given a corpus of a community's online discussions, Community-Cross-Instruct automatically generates instruction-output pairs by an advanced LLM to (1) finetune an foundational LLM to faithfully represent that community, and (2) evaluate the alignment of the finetuned model to the community. We demonstrate the method's utility in accurately representing political and fitness communities on Reddit. Unlike prior methods requiring human-authored instructions, Community-Cross-Instruct generates instructions in a fully unsupervised manner, enhancing scalability and generalization across domains. This work enables cost-effective and automated surveying of diverse online communities.

Protein language models (PLMs) face a fundamental divide: masked language models (MLMs) excel at fitness prediction while causal models enable generation, forcing practitioners to maintain separate architectures. We introduce Proust, a 309M-parameter causal PLM that bridges this gap through architectural innovations adapted from recent LLM research, including grouped-query attention with shared K/V projections, cross-layer value residuals, and depthwise causal convolutions. Trained on 33B tokens in 40 B200 GPU-hours, Proust achieves Spearman ρ= 0.390 on ProteinGym substitutions, competitive with MLMs requiring 50--200times the compute. On indels, Proust sets a new state-of-the-art, outperforming models up to 20times larger. On EVEREST viral fitness benchmarks, it approaches structure-aware methods using sequence alone. These powerful representations position Proust in a sweet spot as it also retains native generative capabilities that MLMs lack by design. Interpretability analysis reveals that per-position entropy variance predicts, to an extent, when retrieval augmentation helps and hurts. Such insights can grow in both quantity and quality at scale and inform capabilities such as test-time scaling. Code and weights are available at https://github.com/Furkan9015/proust-inference

In the era of large language models, model merging is a promising way to combine multiple task-specific models into a single multitask model without extra training. However, two challenges remain: (a) interference between different models and (b) heterogeneous data during testing. Traditional model merging methods often show significant performance gaps compared to fine-tuned models due to these issues. Additionally, a one-size-fits-all model lacks flexibility for diverse test data, leading to performance degradation. We show that both shared and exclusive task-specific knowledge are crucial for merging performance, but directly merging exclusive knowledge hinders overall performance. In view of this, we propose Twin-Merging, a method that encompasses two principal stages: (1) modularizing knowledge into shared and exclusive components, with compression to reduce redundancy and enhance efficiency; (2) dynamically merging shared and task-specific knowledge based on the input. This approach narrows the performance gap between merged and fine-tuned models and improves adaptability to heterogeneous data. Extensive experiments on 12 datasets for both discriminative and generative tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, showing an average improvement of 28.34% in absolute normalized score for discriminative tasks and even surpassing the fine-tuned upper bound on the generative tasks. (Our implementation is available in https://github.com/LZY-the-boys/Twin-Mergin.)

Cross-validation is the de facto standard for predictive model evaluation and selection. In proper use, it provides an unbiased estimate of a model's predictive performance. However, data sets often undergo various forms of data-dependent preprocessing, such as mean-centering, rescaling, dimensionality reduction, and outlier removal. It is often believed that such preprocessing stages, if done in an unsupervised manner (that does not incorporate the class labels or response values) are generally safe to do prior to cross-validation. In this paper, we study three commonly-practiced preprocessing procedures prior to a regression analysis: (i) variance-based feature selection; (ii) grouping of rare categorical features; and (iii) feature rescaling. We demonstrate that unsupervised preprocessing can, in fact, introduce a substantial bias into cross-validation estimates and potentially hurt model selection. This bias may be either positive or negative and its exact magnitude depends on all the parameters of the problem in an intricate manner. Further research is needed to understand the real-world impact of this bias across different application domains, particularly when dealing with small sample sizes and high-dimensional data.

Model diffing is the study of how fine-tuning changes a model's representations and internal algorithms. Many behaviors of interest are introduced during fine-tuning, and model diffing offers a promising lens to interpret such behaviors. Crosscoders are a recent model diffing method that learns a shared dictionary of interpretable concepts represented as latent directions in both the base and fine-tuned models, allowing us to track how concepts shift or emerge during fine-tuning. Notably, prior work has observed concepts with no direction in the base model, and it was hypothesized that these model-specific latents were concepts introduced during fine-tuning. However, we identify two issues which stem from the crosscoders L1 training loss that can misattribute concepts as unique to the fine-tuned model, when they really exist in both models. We develop Latent Scaling to flag these issues by more accurately measuring each latent's presence across models. In experiments comparing Gemma 2 2B base and chat models, we observe that the standard crosscoder suffers heavily from these issues. Building on these insights, we train a crosscoder with BatchTopK loss and show that it substantially mitigates these issues, finding more genuinely chat-specific and highly interpretable concepts. We recommend practitioners adopt similar techniques. Using the BatchTopK crosscoder, we successfully identify a set of chat-specific latents that are both interpretable and causally effective, representing concepts such as false information and personal question, along with multiple refusal-related latents that show nuanced preferences for different refusal triggers. Overall, our work advances best practices for the crosscoder-based methodology for model diffing and demonstrates that it can provide concrete insights into how chat-tuning modifies model behavior.

Estimating causal effect using machine learning (ML) algorithms can help to relax functional form assumptions if used within appropriate frameworks. However, most of these frameworks assume settings with cross-sectional data, whereas researchers often have access to panel data, which in traditional methods helps to deal with unobserved heterogeneity between units. In this paper, we explore how we can adapt double/debiased machine learning (DML) (Chernozhukov et al., 2018) for panel data in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. This adaptation is challenging because DML's cross-fitting procedure assumes independent data and the unobserved heterogeneity is not necessarily additively separable in settings with nonlinear observed confounding. We assess the performance of several intuitively appealing estimators in a variety of simulations. While we find violations of the cross-fitting assumptions to be largely inconsequential for the accuracy of the effect estimates, many of the considered methods fail to adequately account for the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. However, we find that using predictive models based on the correlated random effects approach (Mundlak, 1978) within DML leads to accurate coefficient estimates across settings, given a sample size that is large relative to the number of observed confounders. We also show that the influence of the unobserved heterogeneity on the observed confounders plays a significant role for the performance of most alternative methods.

Data selection is crucial for optimizing language model (LM) performance on specific tasks, yet most existing methods fail to effectively consider the target task distribution. Current approaches either ignore task-specific requirements entirely or rely on approximations that fail to capture the nuanced patterns needed for tasks like Autoformalization or code generation. Methods that do consider the target distribution often rely on simplistic, sometimes noisy, representations, like hashed n-gram features, which can lead to collisions and introduce noise. We introduce ZIP-FIT, a data selection framework that uses gzip compression to directly measure alignment between potential training data and the target task distribution. In extensive evaluations on Autoformalization and Python code generation, ZIP-FIT significantly outperforms leading baselines like DSIR and D4. Models trained on ZIP-FIT-selected data achieve their lowest cross-entropy loss up to 85.1\% faster than baselines, demonstrating that better task alignment leads to more efficient learning. In addition, ZIP-FIT performs selection up to 65.8\% faster than DSIR and two orders of magnitude faster than D4. Notably, ZIP-FIT shows that smaller, well-aligned datasets often outperform larger but less targeted ones, demonstrating that a small amount of higher quality data is superior to a large amount of lower quality data. Our results imply that task-aware data selection is crucial for efficient domain adaptation, and that compression offers a principled way to measure task alignment. By showing that targeted data selection can dramatically improve task-specific performance, our work provides new insights into the relationship between data quality, task alignment, and model learning efficiency.

Tool-augmented LLMs must arbitrate between two fallible sources when a tool return conflicts with their parametric memory, yet existing evaluations measure source preference without establishing source correctness. We introduce MemToC, a controlled benchmark for post-tool-return arbitration with executable tools. MemToC comprises 6,504 evaluation episodes constructed from 542 quality-controlled factual questions, independently elicited model-specific closed-book answers, and controlled tool returns of known correctness. These components instantiate four source-correctness cases; tool-error and no-tool conditions are separate controls. Across five open-weight 7-9B models, tool returns strongly dominate elicited closed-book answers. The four instruction-tuned models retain a verified-correct answer against an incorrect tool in only 6.5-17.1% of eligible cases, follow a correct tool in 86.0-93.1%, and repeat the tool return in 78.4-86.0% of cases where both sources are wrong. No cross-model ordering remains stable across three instruction-wording variants with the question and episode content held fixed. We compare prompting with SFT and DPO using chain-level cross-fitting over ToolHop, so questions sharing an underlying fact never straddle training and evaluation. We apply an asymmetric success criterion: correct-answer retention must improve without a detected reduction in correct-tool following. SFT and DPO meet this criterion on the same two of four instruction-tuned backbones. Improvements rarely come cleanly: 19 of 20 tested method-model combinations reduce abstention after tool errors or on unanswerable inputs. Transfer beyond MemToC is positive but partial and depends on the model and presentation frame. Correctness-conditioned arbitration can be improved through fine-tuning, but gains must be evaluated jointly with correct tool use, abstention, and robustness to formulation.

Predicting enzyme kinetic parameters quantifies how efficiently an enzyme catalyzes a specific substrate under defined biochemical conditions. Canonical parameters such as the turnover number (k_cat), Michaelis constant (K_m), and inhibition constant (K_i) depend jointly on the enzyme sequence, the substrate chemistry, and the conformational adaptation of the active site during binding. Many learning pipelines simplify this process to a static compatibility problem between the enzyme and substrate, fusing their representations through shallow operations and regressing a single value. Such formulations overlook the staged nature of catalysis, which involves both substrate recognition and conformational adaptation. In this regard, we reformulate kinetic prediction as a staged multimodal conditional modeling problem and introduce the Enzyme-Reaction Bridging Adapter (ERBA), which injects cross-modal information via fine-tuning into Protein Language Models (PLMs) while preserving their biochemical priors. ERBA performs conditioning in two stages: Molecular Recognition Cross-Attention (MRCA) first injects substrate information into the enzyme representation to capture specificity; Geometry-aware Mixture-of-Experts (G-MoE) then integrates active-site structure and routes samples to pocket-specialized experts to reflect induced fit. To maintain semantic fidelity, Enzyme-Substrate Distribution Alignment (ESDA) enforces distributional consistency within the PLM manifold in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Experiments across three kinetic endpoints and multiple PLM backbones, ERBA delivers consistent gains and stronger out-of-distribution performance compared with sequence-only and shallow-fusion baselines, offering a biologically grounded route to scalable kinetic prediction and a foundation for adding cofactors, mutations, and time-resolved structural cues.

The proliferation of harmful online content--e.g., toxicity, spam, and negative sentiment--demands robust and adaptable moderation systems. However, prevailing moderation systems are centralized and task-specific, offering limited transparency and neglecting diverse user preferences--an approach ill-suited for privacy-sensitive or decentralized environments. We propose a novel framework that leverages in-context learning (ICL) with foundation models to unify the detection of toxicity, spam, and negative sentiment across binary, multi-class, and multi-label settings. Crucially, our approach enables lightweight personalization, allowing users to easily block new categories, unblock existing ones, or extend detection to semantic variations through simple prompt-based interventions--all without model retraining. Extensive experiments on public benchmarks (TextDetox, UCI SMS, SST2) and a new, annotated Mastodon dataset reveal that: (i) foundation models achieve strong cross-task generalization, often matching or surpassing task-specific fine-tuned models; (ii) effective personalization is achievable with as few as one user-provided example or definition; and (iii) augmenting prompts with label definitions or rationales significantly enhances robustness to noisy, real-world data. Our work demonstrates a definitive shift beyond one-size-fits-all moderation, establishing ICL as a practical, privacy-preserving, and highly adaptable pathway for the next generation of user-centric content safety systems. To foster reproducibility and facilitate future research, we publicly release our code on GitHub and the annotated Mastodon dataset on Hugging Face.

In recent years, Wi-Fi sensing has garnered significant attention due to its numerous benefits, such as privacy protection, low cost, and penetration ability. Extensive research has been conducted in this field, focusing on areas such as gesture recognition, people identification, and fall detection. However, many data-driven methods encounter challenges related to domain shift, where the model fails to perform well in environments different from the training data. One major factor contributing to this issue is the limited availability of Wi-Fi sensing datasets, which makes models learn excessive irrelevant information and over-fit to the training set. Unfortunately, collecting large-scale Wi-Fi sensing datasets across diverse scenarios is a challenging task. To address this problem, we propose CrossFi, a siamese network-based approach that excels in both in-domain scenario and cross-domain scenario, including few-shot, zero-shot scenarios, and even works in few-shot new-class scenario where testing set contains new categories. The core component of CrossFi is a sample-similarity calculation network called CSi-Net, which improves the structure of the siamese network by using an attention mechanism to capture similarity information, instead of simply calculating the distance or cosine similarity. Based on it, we develop an extra Weight-Net that can generate a template for each class, so that our CrossFi can work in different scenarios. Experimental results demonstrate that our CrossFi achieves state-of-the-art performance across various scenarios. In gesture recognition task, our CrossFi achieves an accuracy of 98.17% in in-domain scenario, 91.72% in one-shot cross-domain scenario, 64.81% in zero-shot cross-domain scenario, and 84.75% in one-shot new-class scenario. The code for our model is publicly available at https://github.com/RS2002/CrossFi.

Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) is a critical strategy for efficient Large Language Models (LLMs) deployment. However, existing scaling laws primarily focus on general performance, overlooking crucial fine-grained factors and how quantization differentially impacts diverse knowledge capabilities. To address this, we establish Task-Stratified Knowledge Scaling Laws. By stratifying capabilities into memorization, application, and reasoning, we develop a framework that unifies model size, bit-width, and fine-grained factors: group size and calibration set size. Validated on 293 diverse PTQ configurations, our framework demonstrates strong fit and cross-architecture consistency. It reveals distinct sensitivities across knowledge capabilities: reasoning is precision-critical, application is scale-responsive, and memorization is calibration-sensitive. We highlight that in low-bit scenarios, optimizing these fine-grained factors is essential for preventing performance collapse. These findings provide an empirically-backed foundation for designing knowledge-aware quantization strategies.

In an era of exponential scientific growth, identifying novel research ideas is crucial and challenging in academia. Despite potential, the lack of an appropriate benchmark dataset hinders the research of novelty detection. More importantly, simply adopting existing NLP technologies, e.g., retrieving and then cross-checking, is not a one-size-fits-all solution due to the gap between textual similarity and idea conception. In this paper, we propose to harness large language models (LLMs) for scientific novelty detection (ND), associated with two new datasets in marketing and NLP domains. To construct the considerate datasets for ND, we propose to extract closure sets of papers based on their relationship, and then summarize their main ideas based on LLMs. To capture idea conception, we propose to train a lightweight retriever by distilling the idea-level knowledge from LLMs to align ideas with similar conception, enabling efficient and accurate idea retrieval for LLM novelty detection. Experiments show our method consistently outperforms others on the proposed benchmark datasets for idea retrieval and ND tasks. Codes and data are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/NoveltyDetection-10FB/.

On-policy distillation (OPD) transfers teacher capabilities by supervising trajectories sampled from the student's own policy, yet its generalization behavior remains poorly understood, as most studies evaluate OPD on a single domain and on benchmarks close to the training data. We present a controlled study that varies one generalization factor at a time, from in-domain distribution shifts to cross-domain transfer and the multi-teacher setting. We find that OPD transfers a teacher's reasoning behavior rather than its answers to particular problems: training difficulty barely matters, and even problems the teacher never solves are useful. Transfer depends strongly on the origin relationship between teacher and student: same-origin pairs bring the student close to the teacher across languages, reasoning horizons, and even other domains, whereas cross-origin pairs mostly fit the trained distribution. This broad reach is a double-edged sword: since routing prompts to domain experts cannot confine each teacher's influence, combining them yields a mixture-dependent seesaw among their capabilities. These results clarify when OPD generalizes and offer a useful perspective for diagnosing multi-teacher OPD.

Missing values, irregularly collected samples, and multi-resolution signals commonly occur in multivariate time series data, making predictive tasks difficult. These challenges are especially prevalent in the healthcare domain, where patients' vital signs and electronic records are collected at different frequencies and have occasionally missing information due to the imperfections in equipment or patient circumstances. Researchers have handled each of these issues differently, often handling missing data through mean value imputation and then using sequence models over the multivariate signals while ignoring the different resolution of signals. We propose a unified model named Multi-resolution Flexible Irregular Time series Network (Multi-FIT). The building block for Multi-FIT is the FIT network. The FIT network creates an informative dense representation at each time step using signal information such as last observed value, time difference since the last observed time stamp and overall mean for the signal. Vertical FIT (FIT-V) is a variant of FIT which also models the relationship between different temporal signals while creating the informative dense representations for the signal. The multi-FIT model uses multiple FIT networks for sets of signals with different resolutions, further facilitating the construction of flexible representations. Our model has three main contributions: a.) it does not impute values but rather creates informative representations to provide flexibility to the model for creating task-specific representations b.) it models the relationship between different signals in the form of support signals c.) it models different resolutions in parallel before merging them for the final prediction task. The FIT, FIT-V and Multi-FIT networks improve upon the state-of-the-art models for three predictive tasks, including the forecasting of patient survival.

Model merging has shown that multitask models can be created by directly combining the parameters of different models that are each specialized on tasks of interest. However, models trained independently on distinct tasks often exhibit interference that degrades the merged model's performance. To solve this problem, we formally define the notion of Cross-Task Interference as the drift in the representation of the merged model relative to its constituent models. Reducing cross-task interference is key to improving merging performance. To address this issue, we propose our method, Resolving Interference (RI), a light-weight adaptation framework which disentangles expert models to be functionally orthogonal to the space of other tasks, thereby reducing cross-task interference. RI does this whilst using only unlabeled auxiliary data as input (i.e., no task-data is needed), allowing it to be applied in data-scarce scenarios. RI consistently improves the performance of state-of-the-art merging methods by up to 3.8% and generalization to unseen domains by up to 2.3%. We also find RI to be robust to the source of auxiliary input while being significantly less sensitive to tuning of merging hyperparameters. Our codebase is available at: https://github.com/pramesh39/resolving_interference

In this report, we present the latest model of the Gemini family, Gemini 1.5 Pro, a highly compute-efficient multimodal mixture-of-experts model capable of recalling and reasoning over fine-grained information from millions of tokens of context, including multiple long documents and hours of video and audio. Gemini 1.5 Pro achieves near-perfect recall on long-context retrieval tasks across modalities, improves the state-of-the-art in long-document QA, long-video QA and long-context ASR, and matches or surpasses Gemini 1.0 Ultra's state-of-the-art performance across a broad set of benchmarks. Studying the limits of Gemini 1.5 Pro's long-context ability, we find continued improvement in next-token prediction and near-perfect retrieval (>99%) up to at least 10M tokens, a generational leap over existing models such as Claude 2.1 (200k) and GPT-4 Turbo (128k). Finally, we highlight surprising new capabilities of large language models at the frontier; when given a grammar manual for Kalamang, a language with fewer than 200 speakers worldwide, the model learns to translate English to Kalamang at a similar level to a person who learned from the same content.

The correct use of model evaluation, model selection, and algorithm selection techniques is vital in academic machine learning research as well as in many industrial settings. This article reviews different techniques that can be used for each of these three subtasks and discusses the main advantages and disadvantages of each technique with references to theoretical and empirical studies. Further, recommendations are given to encourage best yet feasible practices in research and applications of machine learning. Common methods such as the holdout method for model evaluation and selection are covered, which are not recommended when working with small datasets. Different flavors of the bootstrap technique are introduced for estimating the uncertainty of performance estimates, as an alternative to confidence intervals via normal approximation if bootstrapping is computationally feasible. Common cross-validation techniques such as leave-one-out cross-validation and k-fold cross-validation are reviewed, the bias-variance trade-off for choosing k is discussed, and practical tips for the optimal choice of k are given based on empirical evidence. Different statistical tests for algorithm comparisons are presented, and strategies for dealing with multiple comparisons such as omnibus tests and multiple-comparison corrections are discussed. Finally, alternative methods for algorithm selection, such as the combined F-test 5x2 cross-validation and nested cross-validation, are recommended for comparing machine learning algorithms when datasets are small.

We present the MASSIVE dataset--Multilingual Amazon Slu resource package (SLURP) for Slot-filling, Intent classification, and Virtual assistant Evaluation. MASSIVE contains 1M realistic, parallel, labeled virtual assistant utterances spanning 51 languages, 18 domains, 60 intents, and 55 slots. MASSIVE was created by tasking professional translators to localize the English-only SLURP dataset into 50 typologically diverse languages from 29 genera. We also present modeling results on XLM-R and mT5, including exact match accuracy, intent classification accuracy, and slot-filling F1 score. We have released our dataset, modeling code, and models publicly.

Multimodal learning on video and text data has been receiving growing attention from many researchers in various research tasks, including text-to-video retrieval, video-to-text retrieval, and video captioning. Although many algorithms have been proposed for those challenging tasks, most of them are developed on English language datasets. Despite Indonesian being one of the most spoken languages in the world, the research progress on the multimodal video-text with Indonesian sentences is still under-explored, likely due to the absence of the public benchmark dataset. To address this issue, we construct the first public Indonesian video-text dataset by translating English sentences from the MSVD dataset to Indonesian sentences. Using our dataset, we then train neural network models which were developed for the English video-text dataset on three tasks, i.e., text-to-video retrieval, video-to-text retrieval, and video captioning. The recent neural network-based approaches to video-text tasks often utilized a feature extractor that is primarily pretrained on an English vision-language dataset. Since the availability of the pretraining resources with Indonesian sentences is relatively limited, the applicability of those approaches to our dataset is still questionable. To overcome the lack of pretraining resources, we apply cross-lingual transfer learning by utilizing the feature extractors pretrained on the English dataset, and we then fine-tune the models on our Indonesian dataset. Our experimental results show that this approach can help to improve the performance for the three tasks on all metrics. Finally, we discuss potential future works using our dataset, inspiring further research in the Indonesian multimodal video-text tasks. We believe that our dataset and our experimental results could provide valuable contributions to the community. Our dataset is available on GitHub.

Federated Instruction Tuning (FIT) enables collaborative instruction tuning of large language models across multiple organizations (clients) in a cross-silo setting without requiring the sharing of private instructions. Recent findings on natural backdoors and the existing training data collection method suggest that poisoned samples may be pervasive and inadvertently embedded in real-world datasets, potentially distributed across all clients, even if the clients are benign. This work systematically examine this threat in FIT, demonstrating that existing defenses are ineffective when poisoned data is interspersed among all clients. Addressing this challenge entails two major difficulties: identifying the distinctive characteristics of poisoned samples at each client and enabling collaborative defense when some clients are heavily dominated by poisoned samples. To address these difficulties, we identify gradients in the frequency domain as a robust signal to distinguish poisoned data. We further propose a global secondary clustering mechanism that facilitates collaborative identification of poisoned samples across clients. In summary, this paper introduces ProtegoFed, the first backdoor-free FIT framework that accurately detects, removes, and even purifies interspersed poisoned data across clients during the training. Experimental results on four FL datasets show that ProtegoFed identifies 92.00% sim 100.00% of poisoned samples, reduces the attack success rate to almost zero, and maintains utility on the main task. Code is available at https://github.com/dongdongzhaoUP/ProtegoFed.

Randomized controlled trials often do not represent the populations where decisions are made, and covariate shift across studies can invalidate standard IPD meta-analysis and transport estimators. We propose a placebo-anchored transport framework that treats source-trial outcomes as abundant proxy signals and target-trial placebo outcomes as scarce, high-fidelity gold labels to calibrate baseline risk. A low-complexity (sparse) correction anchors proxy outcome models to the target population, and the anchored models are embedded in a cross-fitted doubly robust learner, yielding a Neyman-orthogonal, target-site doubly robust estimator for patient-level heterogeneous treatment effects when target treated outcomes are available. We distinguish two regimes: in connected targets (with a treated arm), the method yields target-identified effect estimates; in disconnected targets (placebo-only), it reduces to a principled screen--then--transport procedure under explicit working-model transport assumptions. Experiments on synthetic data and a semi-synthetic IHDP benchmark evaluate pointwise CATE accuracy, ATE error, ranking quality for targeting, decision-theoretic policy regret, and calibration. Across connected settings, the proposed method is best or near-best and improves substantially over proxy-only, target-only, and transport baselines at small target sample sizes; in disconnected settings, it retains strong ranking performance for targeting while pointwise accuracy depends on the strength of the working transport condition.

Scientific idea generation (SIG) is critical to AI-driven autonomous research, yet existing approaches are often constrained by a static retrieval-then-generation paradigm, leading to homogeneous and insufficiently divergent ideas. In this work, we propose FlowPIE, a tightly coupled retrieval-generation framework that treats literature exploration and idea generation as a co-evolving process. FlowPIE expands literature trajectories via a flow-guided Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) inspired by GFlowNets, using the quality of current ideas assessed by an LLM-based generative reward model (GRM) as a supervised signal to guide adaptive retrieval and construct a diverse, high-quality initial population. Based on this population, FlowPIE models idea generation as a test-time idea evolution process, applying selection, crossover, and mutation with the isolation island paradigm and GRM-based fitness computation to incorporate cross-domain knowledge. It effectively mitigates the information cocoons arising from over-reliance on parametric knowledge and static literature. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that FlowPIE consistently produces ideas with higher novelty, feasibility and diversity compared to strong LLM-based and agent-based frameworks, while enabling reward scaling during test time.

While fine-tuning pretrained models has become common practice, these models often underperform outside their specific domains. Recently developed model merging techniques enable the direct integration of multiple models, each fine-tuned for distinct tasks, into a single model. This strategy promotes multitasking capabilities without requiring retraining on the original datasets. However, existing methods fall short in addressing potential conflicts and complex correlations between tasks, especially in parameter-level adjustments, posing a challenge in effectively balancing parameter competition across various tasks. This paper introduces an innovative technique named PCB-Merging (Parameter Competition Balancing), a lightweight and training-free technique that adjusts the coefficients of each parameter for effective model merging. PCB-Merging employs intra-balancing to gauge parameter significance within individual tasks and inter-balancing to assess parameter similarities across different tasks. Parameters with low importance scores are dropped, and the remaining ones are rescaled to form the final merged model. We assessed our approach in diverse merging scenarios, including cross-task, cross-domain, and cross-training configurations, as well as out-of-domain generalization. The experimental results reveal that our approach achieves substantial performance enhancements across multiple modalities, domains, model sizes, number of tasks, fine-tuning forms, and large language models, outperforming existing model merging methods. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/duguodong7/pcb-merging.

Statistical prediction methods typically require some form of fine-tuning of tuning parameter(s), with K-fold cross-validation as the canonical procedure. For ridge regression there exist numerous procedures, but common for all, including cross-validation, is that one single parameter is chosen for all future predictions. We propose instead to calculate a unique tuning parameter for each individual for which we wish to predict an outcome. This generates an individualized prediction by focusing on the vector of covariates of a specific individual. The focused ridge -- fridge -- procedure is introduced with a two-part contribution: 1) first we define an oracle tuning parameter minimizing the mean squared prediction error of a specific covariate vector, 2) then we propose to estimate this tuning parameter by using plug-in estimates of the regression coefficients and error variance parameter. The procedure is extended to logistic ridge regression by utilizing parametric bootstrap. For high-dimensional data, we propose to use ridge regression with cross-validation as the plug-in estimate, and simulations show that fridge gives smaller average prediction error than ridge with cross-validation for both simulated and real data. We illustrate the new concept for both linear and logistic regression models in two applications of personalized medicine: predicting individual risk and treatment response based on gene expression data. The method is implemented in the R package "fridge".

This large scale study focuses on quantifying what X-rays diagnostic prediction tasks generalize well across multiple different datasets. We present evidence that the issue of generalization is not due to a shift in the images but instead a shift in the labels. We study the cross-domain performance, agreement between models, and model representations. We find interesting discrepancies between performance and agreement where models which both achieve good performance disagree in their predictions as well as models which agree yet achieve poor performance. We also test for concept similarity by regularizing a network to group tasks across multiple datasets together and observe variation across the tasks. All code is made available online and data is publicly available: https://github.com/mlmed/torchxrayvision

Multi-turn-to-single-turn (M2S) compresses iterative red-teaming into one structured prompt, but prior work relied on a handful of manually written templates. We present X-Teaming Evolutionary M2S, an automated framework that discovers and optimizes M2S templates through language-model-guided evolution. The system pairs smart sampling from 12 sources with an LLM-as-judge inspired by StrongREJECT and records fully auditable logs. Maintaining selection pressure by setting the success threshold to theta = 0.70, we obtain five evolutionary generations, two new template families, and 44.8% overall success (103/230) on GPT-4.1. A balanced cross-model panel of 2,500 trials (judge fixed) shows that structural gains transfer but vary by target; two models score zero at the same threshold. We also find a positive coupling between prompt length and score, motivating length-aware judging. Our results demonstrate that structure-level search is a reproducible route to stronger single-turn probes and underscore the importance of threshold calibration and cross-model evaluation. Code, configurations, and artifacts are available at https://github.com/hyunjun1121/M2S-x-teaming.

The widespread use of Large Language Models (LLMs), celebrated for their ability to generate human-like text, has raised concerns about misinformation and ethical implications. Addressing these concerns necessitates the development of robust methods to detect and attribute text generated by LLMs. This paper investigates "Cross-Model Detection," evaluating whether a classifier trained to distinguish between source LLM-generated and human-written text can also detect text from a target LLM without further training. The study comprehensively explores various LLM sizes and families, and assesses the impact of conversational fine-tuning techniques on classifier generalization. The research also delves into Model Attribution, encompassing source model identification, model family classification, and model size classification. Our results reveal several key findings: a clear inverse relationship between classifier effectiveness and model size, with larger LLMs being more challenging to detect, especially when the classifier is trained on data from smaller models. Training on data from similarly sized LLMs can improve detection performance from larger models but may lead to decreased performance when dealing with smaller models. Additionally, model attribution experiments show promising results in identifying source models and model families, highlighting detectable signatures in LLM-generated text. Overall, our study contributes valuable insights into the interplay of model size, family, and training data in LLM detection and attribution.

The development and evaluation of Large Language Models (LLMs) have largely focused on individual capabilities. However, this overlooks the intersection of multiple abilities across different types of expertise that are often required for real-world tasks, which we term cross capabilities. To systematically explore this concept, we first define seven core individual capabilities and then pair them to form seven common cross capabilities, each supported by a manually constructed taxonomy. Building on these definitions, we introduce CrossEval, a benchmark comprising 1,400 human-annotated prompts, with 100 prompts for each individual and cross capability. To ensure reliable evaluation, we involve expert annotators to assess 4,200 model responses, gathering 8,400 human ratings with detailed explanations to serve as reference examples. Our findings reveal that, in both static evaluations and attempts to enhance specific abilities, current LLMs consistently exhibit the "Law of the Weakest Link," where cross-capability performance is significantly constrained by the weakest component. Specifically, across 58 cross-capability scores from 17 models, 38 scores are lower than all individual capabilities, while 20 fall between strong and weak, but closer to the weaker ability. These results highlight the under-performance of LLMs in cross-capability tasks, making the identification and improvement of the weakest capabilities a critical priority for future research to optimize performance in complex, multi-dimensional scenarios.

Cross-capability transfer is a key challenge in large language model (LLM) research, with applications in multi-task integration, model compression, and continual learning. Recent works like FuseLLM and FuseChat have demonstrated the potential of transferring multiple model capabilities to lightweight models, enhancing adaptability and efficiency, which motivates our investigation into more efficient cross-capability transfer methods. However, existing approaches primarily focus on small, homogeneous models, limiting their applicability. For large, heterogeneous models, knowledge distillation with full-parameter fine-tuning often overlooks the student model's intrinsic capacity and risks catastrophic forgetting, while PEFT methods struggle to effectively absorb knowledge from source LLMs. To address these issues, we introduce GraftLLM, a novel method that stores source model capabilities in a target model with SkillPack format. This approach preserves general capabilities, reduces parameter conflicts, and supports forget-free continual learning and model fusion. We employ a module-aware adaptive compression strategy to compress parameter updates, ensuring efficient storage while maintaining task-specific knowledge. The resulting SkillPack serves as a compact and transferable knowledge carrier, ideal for heterogeneous model fusion and continual learning. Experiments across various scenarios demonstrate that GraftLLM outperforms existing techniques in knowledge transfer, knowledge fusion, and forget-free learning, providing a scalable and efficient solution for cross-capability transfer. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/duguodong7/GraftLLM.

The transferability of adversarial examples is a key issue in the security of deep neural networks. The possibility of an adversarial example crafted for a source model fooling another targeted model makes the threat of adversarial attacks more realistic. Measuring transferability is a crucial problem, but the Attack Success Rate alone does not provide a sound evaluation. This paper proposes a new methodology for evaluating transferability by putting distortion in a central position. This new tool shows that transferable attacks may perform far worse than a black box attack if the attacker randomly picks the source model. To address this issue, we propose a new selection mechanism, called FiT, which aims at choosing the best source model with only a few preliminary queries to the target. Our experimental results show that FiT is highly effective at selecting the best source model for multiple scenarios such as single-model attacks, ensemble-model attacks and multiple attacks (Code available at: https://github.com/t-maho/transferability_measure_fit).

Previous works on Treatment Effect Estimation (TEE) are not in widespread use because they are predominantly theoretical, where strong parametric assumptions are made but untractable for practical application. Recent work uses multilayer perceptron (MLP) for modeling casual relationships, however, MLPs lag far behind recent advances in ML methodology, which limits their applicability and generalizability. To extend beyond the single domain formulation and towards more realistic learning scenarios, we explore model design spaces beyond MLPs, i.e., transformer backbones, which provide flexibility where attention layers govern interactions among treatments and covariates to exploit structural similarities of potential outcomes for confounding control. Through careful model design, Transformers as Treatment Effect Estimators (TransTEE) is proposed. We show empirically that TransTEE can: (1) serve as a general purpose treatment effect estimator that significantly outperforms competitive baselines in a variety of challenging TEE problems (e.g., discrete, continuous, structured, or dosage-associated treatments) and is applicable to both when covariates are tabular and when they consist of structural data (e.g., texts, graphs); (2) yield multiple advantages: compatibility with propensity score modeling, parameter efficiency, robustness to continuous treatment value distribution shifts, explainable in covariate adjustment, and real-world utility in auditing pre-trained language models

Model merging aims to combine multiple task-specific expert models into a single model without joint retraining, offering a practical alternative to multi-task learning when data access or computational budget is limited. Existing methods, however, face two key limitations: (1) they overlook the valuable inductive bias of strong anchor models and estimate the merged weights from scratch, and (2) they rely on a shared hyperparameter setting across different modules of the network, lacking a global optimization strategy. This paper introduces Bayesian Model Merging (BMM), a plug-and-play bi-level optimization framework, where the inner level formulates the model merging as an activation-based Bayesian regression under a strong prior induced by an anchor model, yielding an efficient closed-form solution; and the outer level leverages a Bayesian optimization procedure to search module-specific hyperparameters globally based on a small validation set. Furthermore, we reveal a key alignment between activation statistics and task vectors, enabling us to derive a data-free variant of BMM that estimates the Gram matrix for regression without any auxiliary data. Across extensive benchmarks, including up to 20-task merging in vision and 5-task merging in language, BMM consistently outperforms all plug-and-play anchor baselines (e.g., TA, WUDI-Merging, and TSV). In particular, on the ViT-L/14 benchmark for 8-task merging, a single merged model reaches 95.1, closely matching the average performance of eight task-specific experts (95.8).

Model merging is an efficient way of obtaining a multi-task model from several pretrained models without further fine-tuning, and it has gained attention in various domains, including natural language processing (NLP). Despite the efficiency, a key challenge in model merging is the seemingly inevitable decrease in task performance as the number of models increases. In this paper, we propose Spectral Truncation And Rescale (STAR) that aims at mitigating ``merging conflicts'' by truncating small components in the respective spectral spaces, which is followed by an automatic parameter rescaling scheme to retain the nuclear norm of the original matrix. STAR requires no additional inference on original training data and is robust to hyperparamater choice. We demonstrate the effectiveness of STAR through extensive model merging cases on diverse NLP tasks. Specifically, STAR works robustly across varying model sizes, and can outperform baselines by 4.2% when merging 12 models on Flan-T5. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/IBM/STAR.

Model merging provides a way of cheaply combining individual models to produce a model that inherits each individual's capabilities. While some merging methods can approach the performance of multitask training, they are often heuristically motivated and lack theoretical justification. A principled alternative is to pose model merging as a layer-wise optimization problem that directly minimizes interference between tasks. However, this formulation requires estimating per-layer covariance matrices from data, which may not be available when performing merging. In contrast, many of the heuristically-motivated methods do not require auxiliary data, making them practically advantageous. In this work, we revisit the interference minimization framework and show that, under certain conditions, covariance matrices can be estimated directly from difference matrices, eliminating the need for data while also reducing computational costs. We validate our approach across vision and language benchmarks on models ranging from 86M parameters to 7B parameters, outperforming previous data-free state-of-the-art merging methods

Fine-tuning pre-trained models with custom data leads to numerous expert models on specific tasks. Merging models into one universal model to empower multi-task ability refraining from data leakage has gained popularity. With the expansion in data and model size, parameter efficient tuning becomes the common practice for obtaining task-specific models efficiently. However, we observe that existing methods designed for full fine-tuning merging fail under efficient tuning. To address the issues, we analyze from low-rank decomposition and reveal that maintaining direction and compensating for gap between singular values are crucial for efficient model merging. Consequently, we propose CoPA-Merging, a training-free parameter efficient merging method with complementary parameter adaptation. Specifically, we (1) prune parameters and construct scaling coefficients from inter-parameter relation to compensate for performance drop from task interference and (2) perform cross-task normalization to enhance unseen task generalization. We establish a benchmark consisting of diverse multimodal tasks, on which we conduct experiments to certificate the outstanding performance and generalizability of our method. Additional study and extensive analyses further showcase the effectiveness.

As post-training processes utilize increasingly large datasets and base models continue to grow in size, the computational demands and implementation challenges of existing algorithms are escalating significantly. In this paper, we propose modeling the changes at the logits level during post-training using a separate neural network (i.e., the value network). After training this network on a small base model using demonstrations, this network can be seamlessly integrated with other pre-trained models during inference, enables them to achieve similar capability enhancements. We systematically investigate the best practices for this paradigm in terms of pre-training weights and connection schemes. We demonstrate that the resulting value network has broad transferability across pre-trained models of different parameter sizes within the same family, models undergoing continuous pre-training within the same family, and models with different vocabularies across families. In certain cases, it can achieve performance comparable to full-parameter fine-tuning. Furthermore, we explore methods to enhance the transferability of the value model and prevent overfitting to the base model used during training.

Optimal configuration of the learning rate (LR) is a fundamental yet formidable challenge in large-scale pre-training. Given the stringent trade-off between training costs and model performance, the pivotal question is whether the optimal LR can be accurately extrapolated from low-cost experiments. In this paper, we formalize this investigation into two distinct research paradigms: Fitting and Transfer. Within the Fitting Paradigm, we innovatively introduce a Scaling Law for search factor, effectively reducing the search complexity from O(n^3) to O(n*C_D*C_η) via predictive modeling. Within the Transfer Paradigm, we extend the principles of μTransfer to the Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture, broadening its applicability to encompass model depth, weight decay, and token horizons. By pushing the boundaries of existing hyperparameter research in terms of scale, we conduct a comprehensive comparison between these two paradigms. Our empirical results challenge the scalability of the widely adopted μ Transfer in large-scale pre-training scenarios. Furthermore, we provide a rigorous analysis through the dual lenses of training stability and feature learning to elucidate the underlying reasons why module-wise parameter tuning underperforms in large-scale settings. This work offers systematic practical guidelines and a fresh theoretical perspective for optimizing industrial-level pre-training.

Cross-encoders deliver state-of-the-art ranking effectiveness in information retrieval, but have a high inference cost. This prevents them from being used as first-stage rankers, but also incurs a cost when re-ranking documents. Prior work has addressed this bottleneck from two largely separate directions: accelerating cross-encoder inference by sparsifying the attention process or improving first-stage retrieval effectiveness using more complex models, e.g. late-interaction ones. In this work, we propose to bridge these two approaches, based on an in-depth understanding of the internal mechanisms of cross-encoders. Starting from cross-encoders, we show that it is possible to derive a new late-interaction-like architecture by carefully removing detrimental or unnecessary interactions. We name this architecture MICE (Minimal Interaction Cross-Encoders). We extensively evaluate MICE across both in-domain (ID) and out-of-domain (OOD) datasets. MICE decreases fourfold the inference latency compared to standard cross-encoders, matching late-interaction models like ColBERT while retaining most of cross-encoder ID effectiveness and demonstrating superior generalization abilities in OOD.

Understanding how language model capabilities transfer from pretraining to supervised fine-tuning (SFT) is fundamental to efficient model development and data curation. In this work, we investigate four core questions: RQ1. To what extent do accuracy and confidence rankings established during pretraining persist after SFT? RQ2. Which benchmarks serve as robust cross-stage predictors and which are unreliable? RQ3. How do transfer dynamics shift with model scale? RQ4. How well does model confidence align with accuracy, as a measure of calibration quality? Does this alignment pattern transfer across training stages? We address these questions through a suite of correlation protocols applied to accuracy and confidence metrics across diverse data mixtures and model scales. Our experiments reveal that transfer reliability varies dramatically across capability categories, benchmarks, and scales -- with accuracy and confidence exhibiting distinct, sometimes opposing, scaling dynamics. These findings shed light on the complex interplay between pretraining decisions and downstream outcomes, providing actionable guidance for benchmark selection, data curation, and efficient model development.

Model merging aims to combine multiple fine-tuned models into a single set of weights that performs well across all source tasks. While prior work has shown that merging can approximate the performance of individual fine-tuned models for each task, it largely overlooks scenarios where models are compressed into low-rank representations, either through low-rank adaptation (LoRA) or post-training singular value decomposition (SVD). We first demonstrate that applying conventional merging methods to low-rank weights leads to severe performance degradation in the merged model. Motivated by this phenomenon, we propose a fundamentally different approach: instead of collapsing all adapters into one set of weights, we construct a compact basis (e.g., an equivalent of holding two or more models) from which original task-specific models can be recovered via linear combination. This reframes merging as generating a reconstruction-capable model space rather than producing a single merged model. Crucially, this allows us to ``revert'' to each individual model when needed, recognizing that no merged model can consistently outperform one specialized for its task. Building on this insight, we introduce our method, Reversible Model Merging (RMM), an efficient, data-free, and flexible method that provides a closed-form solution for selecting the optimal basis of model weights and task-specific coefficients for linear combination. Extensive experiments across diverse datasets and model scales demonstrate that RMM consistently outperforms existing merging approaches, preserving the performance of low-rank compressed models by a significant margin.

Breakthroughs in machine learning are rapidly changing science and society, yet our fundamental understanding of this technology has lagged far behind. Indeed, one of the central tenets of the field, the bias-variance trade-off, appears to be at odds with the observed behavior of methods used in the modern machine learning practice. The bias-variance trade-off implies that a model should balance under-fitting and over-fitting: rich enough to express underlying structure in data, simple enough to avoid fitting spurious patterns. However, in the modern practice, very rich models such as neural networks are trained to exactly fit (i.e., interpolate) the data. Classically, such models would be considered over-fit, and yet they often obtain high accuracy on test data. This apparent contradiction has raised questions about the mathematical foundations of machine learning and their relevance to practitioners. In this paper, we reconcile the classical understanding and the modern practice within a unified performance curve. This "double descent" curve subsumes the textbook U-shaped bias-variance trade-off curve by showing how increasing model capacity beyond the point of interpolation results in improved performance. We provide evidence for the existence and ubiquity of double descent for a wide spectrum of models and datasets, and we posit a mechanism for its emergence. This connection between the performance and the structure of machine learning models delineates the limits of classical analyses, and has implications for both the theory and practice of machine learning.

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

Model calibration aims to align confidence with prediction correctness. The Cross-Entropy (CE) loss is widely used for calibrator training, which enforces the model to increase confidence on the ground truth class. However, we find the CE loss has intrinsic limitations. For example, for a narrow misclassification, a calibrator trained by the CE loss often produces high confidence on the wrongly predicted class (e.g., a test sample is wrongly classified and its softmax score on the ground truth class is around 0.4), which is undesirable. In this paper, we propose a new post-hoc calibration objective derived from the aim of calibration. Intuitively, the proposed objective function asks that the calibrator decrease model confidence on wrongly predicted samples and increase confidence on correctly predicted samples. Because a sample itself has insufficient ability to indicate correctness, we use its transformed versions (e.g., rotated, greyscaled and color-jittered) during calibrator training. Trained on an in-distribution validation set and tested with isolated, individual test samples, our method achieves competitive calibration performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets compared with the state of the art. Further, our analysis points out the difference between our method and commonly used objectives such as CE loss and mean square error loss, where the latters sometimes deviates from the calibration aim.

With the rapid advancement of synthetic dataset generation techniques, evaluating the quality of synthetic data has become a critical research focus. Robust evaluation not only drives innovations in data generation methods but also guides researchers in optimizing the utilization of these synthetic resources. However, current evaluation studies for synthetic datasets remain limited, lacking a universally accepted standard framework. To address this, this paper proposes a novel evaluation framework integrating generalized cross-validation experiments and domain transfer learning principles, enabling generalizable and comparable assessments of synthetic dataset quality. The framework involves training task-specific models (e.g., YOLOv5s) on both synthetic datasets and multiple real-world benchmarks (e.g., KITTI, BDD100K), forming a cross-performance matrix. Following normalization, a Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV) Matrix is constructed to quantify domain transferability. The framework introduces two key metrics. One measures the simulation quality by quantifying the similarity between synthetic data and real-world datasets, while another evaluates the transfer quality by assessing the diversity and coverage of synthetic data across various real-world scenarios. Experimental validation on Virtual KITTI demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed framework and metrics in assessing synthetic data fidelity. This scalable and quantifiable evaluation solution overcomes traditional limitations, providing a principled approach to guide synthetic dataset optimization in artificial intelligence research.

Progress in language model development is often driven by comparative decisions: which architecture to adopt, which pretraining corpus to use, or which training recipe to apply. Making these decisions well requires reliable performance forecasts, yet the two commonly used signals are fundamentally limited. Cross-entropy loss is poorly aligned with downstream capabilities, and direct downstream evaluation is expensive, sparse, and often uninformative at early training stages. Instead, we propose to construct proxy metrics by aggregating token-level statistics, such as entropy, top-k accuracy, and expert token rank, from a candidate model's next token distribution over expert-written solutions. Across three settings, our proxies consistently outperform loss- and compute-based baselines: 1) For cross-family model selection, they rank a heterogeneous population of reasoning models with mean Spearman Rho = 0.81 (vs. Rho = 0.36 for cross-entropy loss); 2) For pretraining data selection, they reliably rank 25 candidate corpora for a target model at roughly 10{,}000times less compute than direct evaluation, pushing the Pareto frontier beyond existing methods; and 3) for training-time forecasting, they extrapolate downstream accuracy across an 18times compute horizon with roughly half the error of existing alternatives. Together, these results suggest that expert trajectories are a broadly useful source of signal for assessing model capabilities, enabling reliable performance forecasting throughout the model development life cycle.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are transforming the forecasting paradigm through large-scale cross-domain pretraining. However, most existing TSFMs remain univariate, and recent efforts to enable cross-variate modeling still operate directly within the raw variate space. This design introduces fundamental limitations in semantic alignment and relational expressivity. Specifically, raw-space group mixing lacks a dedicated mechanism to align heterogeneous physical quantities, while standard non-negative attention fails to capture the complex synergistic and antagonistic interactions ubiquitous in real-world systems. To address these challenges, we propose Falcon-X, decouples variates from the raw space and maps them into a unified latent prototype space. Falcon-X employs a Unified Prototype Diff-Attention mechanism that explicitly evaluates both positive and negative semantic affinities to explicitly align heterogeneous variates. Cross-variate interactions are then efficiently performed within this shared space via Latent Entity Attention, naturally facilitating zero-shot structural transfer. Finally, a Variate Reassembly Router robustly reconstructs variate-specific trajectories via a request-and-dispatch mechanism. Extensive evaluations on the GIFT-Eval and fev-bench benchmarks demonstrate that Falcon-X achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, offering a principled and scalable paradigm for complex multivariate environments. Falcon-X is publicly released to support future research.

Model merging is a powerful technique for integrating the specialized knowledge of multiple machine learning models into a single model. However, existing methods require manually partitioning model parameters into fixed groups for merging, which restricts the exploration of potential combinations and limits performance. To overcome these limitations, we propose Model Merging of Natural Niches (M2N2), an evolutionary algorithm with three key features: (1) dynamic adjustment of merging boundaries to progressively explore a broader range of parameter combinations; (2) a diversity preservation mechanism inspired by the competition for resources in nature, to maintain a population of diverse, high-performing models that are particularly well-suited for merging; and (3) a heuristicbased attraction metric to identify the most promising pairs of models for fusion. Our experimental results demonstrate, for the first time, that model merging can be used to evolve models entirely from scratch. Specifically, we apply M2N2 to evolve MNIST classifiers from scratch and achieve performance comparable to CMA-ES, while being computationally more efficient. Furthermore, M2N2 scales to merge specialized language and image generation models, achieving state-of-the-art performance. Notably, it preserves crucial model capabilities beyond those explicitly optimized by the fitness function, highlighting its robustness and versatility. Our code is available at https://github.com/SakanaAI/natural_niches

Traditionally, data selection has been studied in settings where all samples from prospective sources are fully revealed to a machine learning developer. However, in practical data exchange scenarios, data providers often reveal only a limited subset of samples before an acquisition decision is made. Recently, there have been efforts to fit scaling laws that predict model performance at any size and data source composition using the limited available samples. However, these scaling functions are black-box, computationally expensive to fit, highly susceptible to overfitting, or/and difficult to optimize for data selection. This paper proposes a framework called <projektor>, which predicts model performance and supports data selection decisions based on partial samples of prospective data sources. Our approach distinguishes itself from existing work by introducing a novel *two-stage* performance inference process. In the first stage, we leverage the Optimal Transport distance to predict the model's performance for any data mixture ratio within the range of disclosed data sizes. In the second stage, we extrapolate the performance to larger undisclosed data sizes based on a novel parameter-free mapping technique inspired by neural scaling laws. We further derive an efficient gradient-based method to select data sources based on the projected model performance. Evaluation over a diverse range of applications demonstrates that <projektor> significantly improves existing performance scaling approaches in terms of both the accuracy of performance inference and the computation costs associated with constructing the performance predictor. Also, <projektor> outperforms by a wide margin in data selection effectiveness compared to a range of other off-the-shelf solutions.

Model merging refers to the process of integrating multiple distinct models into a unified model that preserves and combines the strengths and capabilities of the individual models. Most existing approaches rely on task vectors to combine models, typically under the assumption that model parameters are accessible. However, for extremely large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-4, which are often provided solely as black-box services through API interfaces (Language-Model-as-a-Service), model weights are not available to end users. This presents a significant challenge, which we refer to as black-box model merging (BMM) with massive LLMs. To address this challenge, we propose a derivative-free optimization framework based on the evolutionary algorithm (Evo-Merging) that enables effective model merging using only inference-time API queries. Our method consists of two key components: (1) sparsity-based denoising, designed to identify and filter out irrelevant or redundant information across models, and (2) sign-aware scaling, which dynamically computes optimal combination weights for the relevant models based on their performance. We also provide a formal justification, along with a theoretical analysis, for our asymmetric sparsification. Extensive experimental evaluations demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art results on a range of tasks, significantly outperforming existing strong baselines.

Ex-post harmonisation is one of many data preprocessing processes used to combine the increasingly vast and diverse sources of data available for research and analysis. Documenting provenance and ensuring the quality of multi-source datasets is vital for ensuring trustworthy scientific research and encouraging reuse of existing harmonisation efforts. However, capturing and communicating statistically relevant properties of harmonised datasets is difficult without a universal standard for describing harmonisation operations. Our paper combines mathematical and computer science perspectives to address this need. The Crossmaps Framework defines a new approach for transforming existing variables collected under a specific measurement or classification standard to an imputed counterfactual variable indexed by some target standard. It uses computational graphs to separate intended transformation logic from actual data transformations, and avoid the risk of syntactically valid data manipulation scripts resulting in statistically questionable data. In this paper, we introduce the Crossmaps Framework through the example of ex-post harmonisation of aggregated statistics in the social sciences. We define a new provenance task abstraction, the crossmap transform, and formalise two associated objects, the shared mass array and the crossmap. We further define graph, matrix and list encodings of crossmaps and discuss resulting implications for understanding statistical properties of ex-post harmonisation and designing error minimising workflows.

In this paper, we propose a novel learning paradigm, termed Chain-of-Model (CoM), which incorporates the causal relationship into the hidden states of each layer as a chain style, thereby introducing great scaling efficiency in model training and inference flexibility in deployment. We introduce the concept of Chain-of-Representation (CoR), which formulates the hidden states at each layer as a combination of multiple sub-representations (i.e., chains) at the hidden dimension level. In each layer, each chain from the output representations can only view all of its preceding chains in the input representations. Consequently, the model built upon CoM framework can progressively scale up the model size by increasing the chains based on the previous models (i.e., chains), and offer multiple sub-models at varying sizes for elastic inference by using different chain numbers. Based on this principle, we devise Chain-of-Language-Model (CoLM), which incorporates the idea of CoM into each layer of Transformer architecture. Based on CoLM, we further introduce CoLM-Air by introducing a KV sharing mechanism, that computes all keys and values within the first chain and then shares across all chains. This design demonstrates additional extensibility, such as enabling seamless LM switching, prefilling acceleration and so on. Experimental results demonstrate our CoLM family can achieve comparable performance to the standard Transformer, while simultaneously enabling greater flexiblity, such as progressive scaling to improve training efficiency and offer multiple varying model sizes for elastic inference, paving a a new way toward building language models. Our code will be released in the future at: https://github.com/microsoft/CoLM.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are frequently updated due to data or architecture changes to improve their performance. When updating models, developers often focus on increasing overall performance metrics with less emphasis on being compatible with previous model versions. However, users often build a mental model of the functionality and capabilities of a particular machine learning model they are interacting with. They have to adapt their mental model with every update -- a draining task that can lead to user dissatisfaction. In practice, fine-tuned downstream task adapters rely on pretrained LLM base models. When these base models are updated, these user-facing downstream task models experience instance regression or negative flips -- previously correct instances are now predicted incorrectly. This happens even when the downstream task training procedures remain identical. Our work aims to provide seamless model updates to a user in two ways. First, we provide evaluation metrics for a notion of compatibility to prior model versions, specifically for generative tasks but also applicable for discriminative tasks. We observe regression and inconsistencies between different model versions on a diverse set of tasks and model updates. Second, we propose a training strategy to minimize the number of inconsistencies in model updates, involving training of a compatibility model that can enhance task fine-tuned language models. We reduce negative flips -- instances where a prior model version was correct, but a new model incorrect -- by up to 40% from Llama 1 to Llama 2.

We understand little about how capabilities acquired in one language carry over to another, or what governs this transfer: evaluations rely on incomparable, saturation-prone datasets and rarely examine its determinants jointly. Identifying what predicts transfer would let us avoid exhaustive evaluation across all language pairs and let developers target the factors that limit performance in low-resource languages. To evaluate cross-lingual capability transfer, we introduce Multilingual GSM-Symbolic, an extensible multilingual mathematical dataset covering 30,000 item-matched question-answer pairs and spanning 15 languages. It utilises symbolic templates to prevent overfitting and ensure generalisation by allowing generation of millions of high-quality variations from a single sample. Using Multilingual GSM-Symbolic, we quantify the largest determinants of capability as model size (β= 1.77), language resource level (β= 0.77), reasoning (β= 0.67) and typological distance (β= -0.25). This joint estimation allows these determinants to be expressed in terms of one another: a 32B model evaluated in Marathi performs like a 10B model in English. Our findings have important implications for model developers, showing that model size and reasoning narrow the performance gap between low- and high-resource languages (β= -0.27 and β= -0.20, respectively), while similar levers have little or no effect on typologically distant languages. Overall, our analysis framework explains 92% of between-language variation, but only 23% of the model-by-language variation, and predicts a model's performance on an unseen language within 6.0pp (r=.96). Incorporating measurements from just 10 templates in the target language reduces this to 4.19pp, enabling reasonable estimates of performance with little or no downstream dataset.

Model merging aims to combine multiple expert models into a more capable single model, offering benefits such as reduced storage and serving costs, improved generalization, and support for decentralized model development. Despite its promise, previous studies have primarily focused on merging a few small models. This leaves many unanswered questions about the effect of scaling model size and how it interplays with other key factors -- like the base model quality and number of expert models -- , to affect the merged model's performance. This work systematically evaluates the utility of model merging at scale, examining the impact of these different factors. We experiment with merging fully fine-tuned models using 4 popular merging methods -- Averaging, Task~Arithmetic, Dare, and TIES -- across model sizes ranging from 1B-64B parameters and merging up to 8 different expert models. We evaluate the merged models on both held-in tasks, i.e., the expert's training tasks, and zero-shot generalization to unseen held-out tasks. Our experiments provide several new insights about model merging at scale and the interplay between different factors. First, we find that merging is more effective when experts are created from strong base models, i.e., models with good zero-shot performance. Second, larger models facilitate easier merging. Third merging consistently improves generalization capabilities. Notably, when merging 8 large expert models, the merged models often generalize better compared to the multitask trained models. Fourth, we can better merge more expert models when working with larger models. Fifth, different merging methods behave very similarly at larger scales. Overall, our findings shed light on some interesting properties of model merging while also highlighting some limitations. We hope that this study will serve as a reference point on large-scale merging for upcoming research.

Multilingual proficiency presents a significant challenge for large language models (LLMs). English-centric models are usually suboptimal in other languages, particularly those that are linguistically distant from English. This performance discrepancy mainly stems from the imbalanced distribution of training data across languages during pre-training and instruction tuning stages. To address this problem, we propose a novel approach called CrossIn, which utilizes a mixed composition of cross-lingual instruction tuning data. Our method leverages the compressed representation shared by various languages to efficiently enhance the model's task-solving capabilities and multilingual proficiency within a single process. In addition, we introduce a multi-task and multi-faceted benchmark to evaluate the effectiveness of CrossIn. Experimental results demonstrate that our method substantially improves performance across tasks and languages, and we provide extensive insights into the impact of cross-lingual data volume and the integration of translation data on enhancing multilingual consistency and accuracy.

The open-source model ecosystem now contains hundreds of thousands of pretrained models, yet picking the best model for a new dataset is increasingly infeasible: new models and unbenchmarked datasets emerge continuously, leaving practitioners with no prior records on either side. Existing approaches handle only fragments of this in-the-wild setting: AutoML and transferability estimation select models from small predefined pools or require expensive per-model forward passes on the target dataset, while model routing presupposes a given candidate pool. We introduce ModelLens, a unified framework for model recommendation in the wild. Our key insight is that public leaderboard interactions, though scattered and noisy, collectively trace out an implicit atlas of model capabilities across heterogeneous evaluation settings, a signal rich enough to learn from directly. By learning a performance-aware latent space over model--dataset--metric tuples, ModelLens ranks unseen models on unseen datasets without running candidates on the target dataset. On a new benchmark of 1.62M evaluation records spanning 47K models and 9.6K datasets, ModelLens surpasses baselines that either rely on metadata alone or require running each candidate on the target dataset. Its recommended Top-K pools further improve multiple representative routing methods by up to 81% across diverse QA benchmarks. Case studies on recently released benchmarks further confirm generalization to both text and vision-language tasks.

The redshifted 21-cm signal is a unique probe of the early universe, particularly the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). While the 21-cm power spectrum has been the primary statistic for parameter inference, it fails to capture the non-Gaussian information in the signal, motivating the use of higher-order statistics such as the bispectrum. We perform a rigorous cross-simulation validation to infer the mean neutral hydrogen fraction (x_{HI}) by training a Bayesian neural network on 21cmFAST simulations and applying it to mock observations generated by ReionYuga code. Our analysis spans six redshifts and includes realistic SKA system noise and cosmic variance, calculated from 50 statistically independent realizations. We find that the bispectrum adds useful information, but the improvement is moderate, with constraints tightened by sim 1.4times the power-spectrum only case. The cross-simulation analysis also identifies a persistent systematic discrepancy between inferred and true values that often exceeds the statistical uncertainties, implying that modeling uncertainty remains the dominant limitation. Our results, therefore, indicate that the highly stringent constraints obtained in same-code validation studies may be overly optimistic, and mitigating cross-model systematics is crucial for robust parameter inference in the SKA era.

The inherent rigidity of fixed-size benchmarks makes them an inefficient tool for model evaluation. Diverse evaluation objectives, including model ranking, model selection and testing throughout development, demand varying levels of statistical power. The mismatch between fixed sample sizes and these diverse needs results in either excessive computational cost or compromised reliability - a critical concern for model evaluation. To overcome these limitations, we call for adoption of sequential testing in our field. We provide an adaptive evaluation framework, that provides a principled way to navigate the trade-off between efficiency and reliability in model evaluation. Our framework combines the established statistical paradigm of sequential testing with stopping criteria tailored to common evaluation needs such as diminishing returns detection, and minimum detectable effect size. We demonstrate its ability to adaptively manage the efficiency-reliability trade-off on the Open VLM Leaderboard, including, for example, a 80% reduction in computational cost compared to fixed-size evaluation (with a 2.5-point CI width allowance) while maintaining statistical significance.

As models and data scale, independently trained networks often induce analogous notions of similarity. But, matching similarities is weaker than establishing an explicit correspondence between the representation spaces, especially for multimodal models, where consistency must hold not only within each modality, but also for the learned image-text coupling. We therefore ask: given two independently trained multimodal contrastive models (with encoders (f, g) and (f,g)) -- trained on different distributions and with different architectures -- does a systematic geometric relationship exist between their embedding spaces? If so, what form does it take, and does it hold uniformly across modalities? In this work, we show that across model families such as CLIP, SigLIP, and FLAVA, this geometric relationship is well approximated by an orthogonal map (up to a global mean shift), i.e., there exists an orthogonal map Q where Q^top Q = I such that f(x)approx Q f(x) for paired images x. Strikingly, the same Q simultaneously aligns the text encoders i.e., g(y)approx Q g(y) for texts y. Theoretically, we prove that if the multimodal kernel agrees across models on a small anchor set i.e. langle f(x), g(y)rangle approx langle f(x), g(y)rangle, then the two models must be related by a single orthogonal map Q and the same Q maps images and text across models. More broadly, this finding enables backward-compatible model upgrades, avoiding costly re-embedding, and has implications for the privacy of learned representations. Our project page: https://canonical-multimodal.github.io/

Averaging the parameters of models that have the same architecture and initialization can provide a means of combining their respective capabilities. In this paper, we take the perspective that this "merging" operation can be seen as choosing parameters that approximately maximize the joint likelihood of the posteriors of the models' parameters. Computing a simple average of the models' parameters therefore corresponds to making an isotropic Gaussian approximation to their posteriors. We develop an alternative merging procedure based on the Laplace approximation where we approximate each model's posterior as a Gaussian distribution whose precision matrix corresponds to its Fisher information. We first show that our "Fisher merging" technique provides a performance boost in settings where simple parameter averaging is currently used -- specifically, robust fine-tuning and model ensembling. Then, we compare merging to standard gradient-based transfer learning and demonstrate that merging enables a fundamentally different method for transferring capabilities across models. Specifically, we show that Fisher merging is competitive with gradient-based transfer learning approaches (while being significantly cheaper) in intermediate-task training and domain-adaptive pre-training. We also show that our merging procedure makes it possible to combine models in previously unexplored ways. We release our code to facilitate future research into methods for merging models.

We introduce a flexible framework that produces high-quality almost-exact matches for causal inference. Most prior work in matching uses ad-hoc distance metrics, often leading to poor quality matches, particularly when there are irrelevant covariates. In this work, we learn an interpretable distance metric for matching, which leads to substantially higher quality matches. The learned distance metric stretches the covariate space according to each covariate's contribution to outcome prediction: this stretching means that mismatches on important covariates carry a larger penalty than mismatches on irrelevant covariates. Our ability to learn flexible distance metrics leads to matches that are interpretable and useful for the estimation of conditional average treatment effects.

The search for a general model that can operate seamlessly across multiple domains remains a key goal in machine learning research. The prevailing methodology in Reinforcement Learning (RL) typically limits models to a single task within a unimodal framework, a limitation that contrasts with the broader vision of a versatile, multi-domain model. In this paper, we present Jack of All Trades (JAT), a transformer-based model with a unique design optimized for handling sequential decision-making tasks and multimodal data types. The JAT model demonstrates its robust capabilities and versatility by achieving strong performance on very different RL benchmarks, along with promising results on Computer Vision (CV) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks, all using a single set of weights. The JAT model marks a significant step towards more general, cross-domain AI model design, and notably, it is the first model of its kind to be fully open-sourced (see https://huggingface.co/jat-project/jat), including a pioneering general-purpose dataset.

Transfer learning - i.e., further fine-tuning a pre-trained model on a downstream task - can confer significant advantages, including improved downstream performance, faster convergence, and better sample efficiency. These advantages have led to a proliferation of task-specific fine-tuned models, which typically can only perform a single task and do not benefit from one another. Recently, model merging techniques have emerged as a solution to combine multiple task-specific models into a single multitask model without performing additional training. However, existing merging methods often ignore the interference between parameters of different models, resulting in large performance drops when merging multiple models. In this paper, we demonstrate that prior merging techniques inadvertently lose valuable information due to two major sources of interference: (a) interference due to redundant parameter values and (b) disagreement on the sign of a given parameter's values across models. To address this, we propose our method, TrIm, Elect Sign & Merge (TIES-Merging), which introduces three novel steps when merging models: (1) resetting parameters that only changed a small amount during fine-tuning, (2) resolving sign conflicts, and (3) merging only the parameters that are in alignment with the final agreed-upon sign. We find that TIES-Merging outperforms several existing methods in diverse settings covering a range of modalities, domains, number of tasks, model sizes, architectures, and fine-tuning settings. We further analyze the impact of different types of interference on model parameters, highlight the importance of resolving sign interference. Our code is available at https://github.com/prateeky2806/ties-merging

Scaling laws predict the loss of a target machine learning model by extrapolating from easier-to-train models with fewer parameters or smaller training sets. This provides an efficient way for practitioners and researchers alike to compare pretraining decisions involving optimizers, datasets, and model architectures. Despite the widespread use of scaling laws to model the dynamics of language model training, there has been little work on understanding how to best estimate and interpret them. We collect (and release) a large-scale dataset containing losses and downstream evaluations for 485 previously published pretrained models. We use these to estimate more than 1000 scaling laws, then derive a set of best practices for estimating scaling laws in new model families. We find that fitting scaling laws to intermediate checkpoints of training runs (and not just their final losses) substantially improves accuracy, and that -- all else equal -- estimates of performance are generally most accurate when derived from other models of similar sizes. However, because there is a significant degree of variability across model seeds, training multiple small models is sometimes more useful than training a single large one. Moreover, while different model families differ scaling behavior, they are often similar enough that a target model's behavior can be predicted from a single model with the same architecture, along with scaling parameter estimates derived from other model families.

Public leaderboards for coding agents typically rank systems by model name and pass rate, while the surrounding harness (the scaffold that issues tools, manages context, and decides when to stop) is often under-specified. Model-to-model comparison is valid when the harness is fixed; when it varies, performance and efficiency conflate model and scaffold effects. We evaluate Qwen 3.6 Plus and MiniMax M2.5 across three open-source harnesses (Goose, OpenCode, OpenHands-SDK) on a stratified 50-task subset of Terminal-Bench Pro. Harness choice induces up to a 40x difference in tokens per solved task, while paired within-model pass-rate differences remain 0-8 percentage points (95% paired-task bootstrap CIs include zero except for the largest gap). Failure fingerprints replicate across models (REASON for Goose, VERIFY/MAX_TURNS for OpenHands-SDK, idle-loop/TIME for OpenCode), indicating harness-level biases that are largely model-independent. For human-centered coding-agent evaluation, model name alone is an incomplete comparison unit: harness-model pairs determine real-world cost, latency, and oversight burden; no-action turns are a per-task wait tax, not just a token tax. We therefore recommend selecting harness-model pairs by pass rate under token/latency budgets, and reporting token usage, latency, and full harness specifications alongside any model comparison. We release anonymized configs, raw trial logs, aggregated snapshots, and analysis scripts.

The democratization of machine learning systems has made the process of fine-tuning accessible to practitioners, leading to a wide range of open-source models fine-tuned on specialized tasks and datasets. Recent work has proposed to merge such models to combine their functionalities. However, prior approaches are usually restricted to models that are fine-tuned from the same base model. Furthermore, the final merged model is typically required to be of the same size as the original models. In this work, we propose a new two-step algorithm to merge models -- termed PLeaS -- which relaxes these constraints. First, leveraging the Permutation symmetries inherent in the two models, PLeaS partially matches nodes in each layer by maximizing alignment. Next, PLeaS computes the weights of the merged model as a layer-wise Least Squares solution to minimize the approximation error between the features of the merged model and the permuted features of the original models. PLeaS allows a practitioner to merge two models sharing the same architecture into a single performant model of a desired size, even when the two original models are fine-tuned from different base models. We also demonstrate how our method can be extended to address a challenging scenario where no data is available from the fine-tuning domains. We demonstrate our method to merge ResNet and ViT models trained with shared and different label spaces, and show improvement over the state-of-the-art merging methods of up to 15 percentage points for the same target compute while merging models trained on DomainNet and fine-grained classification tasks. Our code is open-sourced at https://github.com/SewoongLab/PLeaS-Merging .

Combining different models is a widely used paradigm in machine learning applications. While the most common approach is to form an ensemble of models and average their individual predictions, this approach is often rendered infeasible by given resource constraints in terms of memory and computation, which grow linearly with the number of models. We present a layer-wise model fusion algorithm for neural networks that utilizes optimal transport to (soft-) align neurons across the models before averaging their associated parameters. We show that this can successfully yield "one-shot" knowledge transfer (i.e, without requiring any retraining) between neural networks trained on heterogeneous non-i.i.d. data. In both i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. settings , we illustrate that our approach significantly outperforms vanilla averaging, as well as how it can serve as an efficient replacement for the ensemble with moderate fine-tuning, for standard convolutional networks (like VGG11), residual networks (like ResNet18), and multi-layer perceptrons on CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and MNIST. Finally, our approach also provides a principled way to combine the parameters of neural networks with different widths, and we explore its application for model compression. The code is available at the following link, https://github.com/sidak/otfusion.

Combining pretrained models is a common strategy for building AI systems, whether by aligning a vision encoder with a language model or merging fine-tuned checkpoints. However, finding compatible pairs typically requires costly empirical search, as compatibility is known only after alignment or merging. We propose COMPASS (COMPatibility ASsessment Score), a theoretically motivated diagnostic that estimates whether a model pair will be compatible prior to alignment or merging. Building on the observation that representational convergence is most robust at the level of local neighborhoods, COMPASS decomposes model compatibility into two cheap-to-compute axes: a pair-specific ease, defined as the k-NN overlap between the two encoders, and a paradigm-level ceiling, capturing the maximum overlap their training paradigms allow. Together, these two axes provide a ranking of candidate model pairs and prescribe how to act on each pair: (i) prioritize pairs that already agree and whose paradigms are compatible, (ii) invest additional compute on pairs with compatible paradigms but low initial agreement, (iii) switch the pretraining paradigm when it cannot support sufficient agreement, or (iv) deprioritize pairs that score poorly on both axes. We apply COMPASS to 72 cross-modal alignment experiments and 392 task-arithmetic model merges and show that compatibility estimates by COMPASS strongly correlate with downstream success, achieving average Pearson correlation of 0.91 on cross-modal alignment tasks and 0.70 on model merging.

Model merging constructs versatile models by integrating task-specific models without requiring labeled data or expensive joint retraining. Although recent methods improve adaptability to heterogeneous tasks by generating customized merged models for each instance, they face two critical limitations. First, the instance-specific merged models lack reusability, restricting the exploitation of high-quality merging configurations and efficient batch inference. Second, these methods treat each task-specific model as a monolithic whole, overlooking the diverse mergeability of homologous components such as attention and multilayer perceptron layers, and the differing merging sensitivities across components. To address these limitations, we propose MERGE (Modular Expert Recombination for fine-Grained mErging), a method that enables component-wise model merging and input-aware, on-demand module recombination at inference. MERGE formulates component-wise merging as a bi-objective optimization problem that balances cross-task performance and storage efficiency, and develops a surrogate-assisted evolutionary algorithm to efficiently identify Pareto-optimal merging configurations. These high-quality configurations underpin a reusable modular expert library, from which a lightweight routing network dynamically activates and recombines modular experts to assemble input-specific models and enable efficient inference under storage constraints. Extensive experiments across various model scales, task types, and fine-tuning strategies demonstrate that MERGE consistently outperforms strong baselines and generalizes effectively.

We present an empirical study of scaling properties of encoder-decoder Transformer models used in neural machine translation (NMT). We show that cross-entropy loss as a function of model size follows a certain scaling law. Specifically (i) We propose a formula which describes the scaling behavior of cross-entropy loss as a bivariate function of encoder and decoder size, and show that it gives accurate predictions under a variety of scaling approaches and languages; we show that the total number of parameters alone is not sufficient for such purposes. (ii) We observe different power law exponents when scaling the decoder vs scaling the encoder, and provide recommendations for optimal allocation of encoder/decoder capacity based on this observation. (iii) We also report that the scaling behavior of the model is acutely influenced by composition bias of the train/test sets, which we define as any deviation from naturally generated text (either via machine generated or human translated text). We observe that natural text on the target side enjoys scaling, which manifests as successful reduction of the cross-entropy loss. (iv) Finally, we investigate the relationship between the cross-entropy loss and the quality of the generated translations. We find two different behaviors, depending on the nature of the test data. For test sets which were originally translated from target language to source language, both loss and BLEU score improve as model size increases. In contrast, for test sets originally translated from source language to target language, the loss improves, but the BLEU score stops improving after a certain threshold. We release generated text from all models used in this study.

Air pollution constitutes a global problem of paramount importance that affects not only human health, but also the environment. The existence of spatial and temporal data regarding the concentrations of pollutants is crucial for performing air pollution studies and monitor emissions. However, although observation data presents great temporal coverage, the number of stations is very limited and they are usually built in more populated areas. The main objective of this work is to create models capable of inferring pollutant concentrations in locations where no observation data exists. A machine learning model, more specifically the random forest model, was developed for predicting concentrations in the Iberian Peninsula in 2019 for five selected pollutants: NO_2, O_3 SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5. Model features include satellite measurements, meteorological variables, land use classification, temporal variables (month, day of year), and spatial variables (latitude, longitude, altitude). The models were evaluated using various methods, including station 10-fold cross-validation, in which in each fold observations from 10\% of the stations are used as testing data and the rest as training data. The R^2, RMSE and mean bias were determined for each model. The NO_2 and O_3 models presented good values of R^2, 0.5524 and 0.7462, respectively. However, the SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5 models performed very poorly in this regard, with R^2 values of -0.0231, 0.3722, and 0.3303, respectively. All models slightly overestimated the ground concentrations, except the O_3 model. All models presented acceptable cross-validation RMSE, except the O_3 and PM10 models where the mean value was a little higher (12.5934 mu g/m^3 and 10.4737 mu g/m^3, respectively).

The reproducibility and transparency of large language models are crucial for advancing open research, ensuring the trustworthiness of results, and enabling investigations into data and model biases, as well as potential risks. To this end, we release OpenELM, a state-of-the-art open language model. OpenELM uses a layer-wise scaling strategy to efficiently allocate parameters within each layer of the transformer model, leading to enhanced accuracy. For example, with a parameter budget of approximately one billion parameters, OpenELM exhibits a 2.36% improvement in accuracy compared to OLMo while requiring 2times fewer pre-training tokens. Diverging from prior practices that only provide model weights and inference code, and pre-train on private datasets, our release includes the complete framework for training and evaluation of the language model on publicly available datasets, including training logs, multiple checkpoints, and pre-training configurations. We also release code to convert models to MLX library for inference and fine-tuning on Apple devices. This comprehensive release aims to empower and strengthen the open research community, paving the way for future open research endeavors. Our source code along with pre-trained model weights and training recipes is available at https://github.com/apple/corenet. Additionally, \model models can be found on HuggingFace at: https://huggingface.co/apple/OpenELM.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Model merging has recently attracted significant attention as a promising paradigm for constructing unified multi-task models without requiring additional retraining. However, parameter conflicts and knowledge interference across tasks often degrade merged-model performance. Prior work introduced Conflict-Aware and Balanced Sparsification (CABS), which reduces parameter interference through structured pruning and sequential masking. However, CABS relies on grid search to determine scaling coefficients, resulting in exponential time complexity, while its optimization objective can be dominated by high-performance tasks, leading to suboptimal overall performance. To address these limitations, we extend CABS and propose CABS+. Specifically, Adaptive Weight Allocation (AWA) optimizes merging coefficients via a gradient-free search scheme to reduce time complexity, while an asymmetric fitness function promotes more comprehensive performance gains across tasks. Moreover, we conduct a systematic empirical study of key factors influencing model merging performance and propose Relative Synergy Score (RSS) to quantify model mergeability and guide model selection. We compare CABS+ with state-of-the-art model merging methods, including CABS, AdaMerging, and WUDIMerging, across 27 datasets and 5 models covering large language, small-scale language, and vision models. Extensive experiments verify the effectiveness and efficiency of CABS+. Compared with AdaMerging and WUDIMerging, CABS+ improves overall performance by 16.97% and 12.93%, respectively, exhibits stronger stability and robustness across varying task numbers and model architectures, uses less than 25% of the GPU memory required by AdaMerging, and achieves nearly a 4x speedup in merging time over WUDIMerging.

Model merging has attracted attention as an effective path toward multi-task adaptation by integrating knowledge from multiple task-specific models. Among existing approaches, dynamic merging mitigates performance degradation caused by conflicting parameter updates across tasks by flexibly combining task-specific parameters at inference time, thereby maintaining high performance. However, these methods require storing independent parameters for each task, resulting in prohibitive storage overhead. To address this issue, we first experimentally demonstrate that the fine-tuned weight increments (referred to as task vectors) exhibit an impulse-like activation pattern and high robustness to low-bit representations. Driven by this insight, we propose T-Switch, which decomposes task vectors into three compact components: a binary sparse mask, a sign vector, and a scalar scaling factor, achieving high-fidelity approximation at high compression ratios. We then introduce Auto-Switch, a training-free merging scheme that automatically composes task vectors via feature similarity retrieval. Building on this, we develop Auto-Switch, a training-free merging scheme that automatically assembles task vectors through feature similarity retrieval. Furthermore, to transform task vector sparsification and quantization from static rules to adaptive learning, we propose FlexSwitch, a learnable framework which jointly optimizes the compression strategy for each model unit via Learnable Gating Sparsification (LGS) and Bit-width Adaptive Selection (BAS), while employing the Sparsity-Aware Storage Strategy (SASS) to select the optimal storage encoding structure. Finally, by incorporating a K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) inference scheme with a learnable low-rank metric, we present Auto-FlexSwitch, a dynamic model merging approach that supports highly efficient task vector compression.

Speech deepfake detectors usually emit one score per utterance, but a borderline score does not reveal why two examples differ during retrospective error analysis. We ask whether a final score can be calibrated from component fields while keeping those fields visible for inspection. We build a decision record with a passive detector score and a score from a probe applied to a marked copy. It also includes retrieval support held out of the evaluated family, a margin from a support-set profile, and raw neighbor closeness. A cross-fit calibrator combines these fields and two differences between raw scores into one final score. On matched ASVspoof development data, the calibrated record reduces equal error rate (EER) by 3.48 percentage points relative to the fixed retrieval-augmented rule. It reaches 8.43% EER, whereas a passive WavLM baseline reaches 6.71% on the same subset. The record is therefore not the strongest detector in this comparison. Its value is to retain inspectable component fields while producing one scalar score for retrospective diagnosis.

Multilevel data are prevalent in many real-world applications. However, it remains an open research problem to identify and justify a class of models that flexibly capture a wide range of multilevel data. Motivated by the versatility of the mixture of experts (MoE) models in fitting regression data, in this article we extend upon the MoE and study a class of mixed MoE (MMoE) models for multilevel data. Under some regularity conditions, we prove that the MMoE is dense in the space of any continuous mixed effects models in the sense of weak convergence. As a result, the MMoE has a potential to accurately resemble almost all characteristics inherited in multilevel data, including the marginal distributions, dependence structures, regression links, random intercepts and random slopes. In a particular case where the multilevel data is hierarchical, we further show that a nested version of the MMoE universally approximates a broad range of dependence structures of the random effects among different factor levels.

The existence of a plethora of language models makes the problem of selecting the best one for a custom task challenging. Most state-of-the-art methods leverage transformer-based models (e.g., BERT) or their variants. Training such models and exploring their hyperparameter space, however, is computationally expensive. Prior work proposes several neural architecture search (NAS) methods that employ performance predictors (e.g., surrogate models) to address this issue; however, analysis has been limited to homogeneous models that use fixed dimensionality throughout the network. This leads to sub-optimal architectures. To address this limitation, we propose a suite of heterogeneous and flexible models, namely FlexiBERT, that have varied encoder layers with a diverse set of possible operations and different hidden dimensions. For better-posed surrogate modeling in this expanded design space, we propose a new graph-similarity-based embedding scheme. We also propose a novel NAS policy, called BOSHNAS, that leverages this new scheme, Bayesian modeling, and second-order optimization, to quickly train and use a neural surrogate model to converge to the optimal architecture. A comprehensive set of experiments shows that the proposed policy, when applied to the FlexiBERT design space, pushes the performance frontier upwards compared to traditional models. FlexiBERT-Mini, one of our proposed models, has 3% fewer parameters than BERT-Mini and achieves 8.9% higher GLUE score. A FlexiBERT model with equivalent performance as the best homogeneous model achieves 2.6x smaller size. FlexiBERT-Large, another proposed model, achieves state-of-the-art results, outperforming the baseline models by at least 5.7% on the GLUE benchmark.

The success of pretrain-finetune paradigm brings about the release of numerous model weights. In this case, merging models finetuned on different tasks to enable a single model with multi-task capabilities is gaining increasing attention for its practicability. Existing model merging methods usually suffer from (1) significant performance degradation or (2) requiring tuning by additional data or training. In this paper, we rethink and analyze the existing model merging paradigm. We discover that using a single model's weights can hardly simulate all the models' performance. To tackle this issue, we propose Elect, Mask & Rescale-Merging (EMR-Merging). We first (a) elect a unified model from all the model weights and then (b) generate extremely lightweight task-specific modulators, including masks and rescalers, to align the direction and magnitude between the unified model and each specific model, respectively. EMR-Merging is tuning-free, thus requiring no data availability or any additional training while showing impressive performance. We find that EMR-Merging shows outstanding performance compared to existing merging methods under different classical and newly-established settings, including merging different numbers of vision models (up to 30), NLP models, PEFT models, and multi-modal models.

Modern machine learning algorithms are increasingly computationally demanding, requiring specialized hardware and distributed computation to achieve high performance in a reasonable time frame. Many hyperparameter search algorithms have been proposed for improving the efficiency of model selection, however their adaptation to the distributed compute environment is often ad-hoc. We propose Tune, a unified framework for model selection and training that provides a narrow-waist interface between training scripts and search algorithms. We show that this interface meets the requirements for a broad range of hyperparameter search algorithms, allows straightforward scaling of search to large clusters, and simplifies algorithm implementation. We demonstrate the implementation of several state-of-the-art hyperparameter search algorithms in Tune. Tune is available at http://ray.readthedocs.io/en/latest/tune.html.

We extend conformal prediction methodology beyond the case of exchangeable data. In particular, we show that a weighted version of conformal prediction can be used to compute distribution-free prediction intervals for problems in which the test and training covariate distributions differ, but the likelihood ratio between these two distributions is known---or, in practice, can be estimated accurately with access to a large set of unlabeled data (test covariate points). Our weighted extension of conformal prediction also applies more generally, to settings in which the data satisfies a certain weighted notion of exchangeability. We discuss other potential applications of our new conformal methodology, including latent variable and missing data problems.

Existing cross-encoder models can be categorized as pointwise, pairwise, or listwise. Pairwise and listwise models allow passage interactions, which typically makes them more effective than pointwise models but less efficient and less robust to input passage order permutations. To enable efficient permutation-invariant passage interactions during re-ranking, we propose a new cross-encoder architecture with inter-passage attention: the Set-Encoder. In experiments on TREC Deep Learning and TIREx, the Set-Encoder is as effective as state-of-the-art listwise models while being more efficient and invariant to input passage order permutations. Compared to pointwise models, the Set-Encoder is particularly more effective when considering inter-passage information, such as novelty, and retains its advantageous properties compared to other listwise models. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/webis-de/ECIR-25.

Autoregressive language models are trained by minimizing the cross-entropy of the model distribution Q relative to the data distribution P -- that is, minimizing the forward cross-entropy, which is equivalent to maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). We have observed that models trained in this way may "over-generalize", in the sense that they produce non-human-like text. Moreover, we believe that reverse cross-entropy, i.e., the cross-entropy of P relative to Q, is a better reflection of how a human would evaluate text generated by a model. Hence, we propose learning with MixCE, an objective that mixes the forward and reverse cross-entropies. We evaluate models trained with this objective on synthetic data settings (where P is known) and real data, and show that the resulting models yield better generated text without complex decoding strategies. Our code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/bloomberg/mixce-acl2023

The study emphasizes the challenge of finding the optimal trade-off between bias and variance, especially as hyperparameter optimization increases in complexity. Through empirical analysis, three hyperparameter tuning algorithms Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE), Genetic Search, and Random Search are evaluated across regression and classification tasks. The results show that nonlinear models, with properly tuned hyperparameters, significantly outperform linear models. Interestingly, Random Search excelled in regression tasks, while TPE was more effective for classification tasks. This suggests that there is no one-size-fits-all solution, as different algorithms perform better depending on the task and model type. The findings underscore the importance of selecting the appropriate tuning method and highlight the computational challenges involved in optimizing machine learning models, particularly as search spaces expand.

We identify empirical scaling laws for the cross-entropy loss in four domains: generative image modeling, video modeling, multimodal imageleftrightarrowtext models, and mathematical problem solving. In all cases autoregressive Transformers smoothly improve in performance as model size and compute budgets increase, following a power-law plus constant scaling law. The optimal model size also depends on the compute budget through a power-law, with exponents that are nearly universal across all data domains. The cross-entropy loss has an information theoretic interpretation as S(True) + D_{KL}(True||Model), and the empirical scaling laws suggest a prediction for both the true data distribution's entropy and the KL divergence between the true and model distributions. With this interpretation, billion-parameter Transformers are nearly perfect models of the YFCC100M image distribution downsampled to an 8times 8 resolution, and we can forecast the model size needed to achieve any given reducible loss (ie D_{KL}) in nats/image for other resolutions. We find a number of additional scaling laws in specific domains: (a) we identify a scaling relation for the mutual information between captions and images in multimodal models, and show how to answer the question "Is a picture worth a thousand words?"; (b) in the case of mathematical problem solving, we identify scaling laws for model performance when extrapolating beyond the training distribution; (c) we finetune generative image models for ImageNet classification and find smooth scaling of the classification loss and error rate, even as the generative loss levels off. Taken together, these results strengthen the case that scaling laws have important implications for neural network performance, including on downstream tasks.

Multi-model LLM systems such as routing, voting, cascades, fusion, and mixture-of-agents are used to beat single-model accuracy. We show that their gain is capped by a quantity the field rarely reports. For any policy whose output is one member model answer, accuracy cannot exceed one minus beta, where beta is the rate at which every model is wrong on the same query. In contrast, the usual diagnostic, average pairwise error correlation rho, cannot identify beta: error laws with identical marginals and pairwise correlations can have different all-wrong rates. A Clopper-Pearson bound on beta gives a finite-sample certificate on the largest gain any router, vote, or cascade could deliver before training a router. Across 67 models from 21 providers, a tetrachoric-calibrated single-factor model still underprices the all-wrong tail: on open-ended mathematics, observed beta is 0.052 versus 0.023 under the full 67-model Gaussian copula, about 2.5 times underpricing, with 90 percent CI 1.7 to 3.4 and k equals 17. The effect recurs on execution-graded code, where beta is 0.079. Re-asking the same GPQA-Diamond questions in free-response rather than multiple-choice form reopens the tail, with beta 0.127 and a five-judge panel with kappa 0.73 to 0.92, locating co-failure in answer format rather than subject. At matched quality, low-rho heterogeneous ensembles beat high-rho Self-MoA, but on checkable tasks in our pool, combining models rarely beats the single best model without a strong query-level routing signal. Gains come from models failing on different questions, not from adding more models.

Regression Mean (RegMean), an approach that formulates model merging as a linear regression problem, aims to find the optimal weights for each linear layer in the merge model by minimizing the discrepancy in predictions between the merge and candidate models. RegMean provides a precise closed-form solution for the merging problem; therefore, it offers explainability and computational efficiency. However, RegMean merges each linear layer independently, overlooking how the features and information in the earlier layers propagate through the layers and influence the final prediction in the merge model. In this paper, we introduce RegMean++, a simple yet effective alternative to RegMean, that explicitly incorporates both intra- and cross-layer dependencies between merge models' layers into RegMean's objective. By accounting for these dependencies, RegMean++ better captures the behaviors of the merge model. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RegMean++ consistently outperforms RegMean across diverse settings, including in-domain (ID) and out-of-domain (OOD) generalization, sequential merging, large-scale tasks, and robustness under several types of distribution shifts. Furthermore, RegMean++ achieves competitive or state-of-the-art performance compared to various recent advanced model merging methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/nthehai01/RegMean-plusplus.