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Oct 16

When Agents Slow Down: Understanding LLM Agents' Test-Time Strategies via Elo-per-token Analysis

Large language model (LLM) agents allocate test-time compute adaptively as they revise solutions, use tools, explore alternatives, and decide when to stop. This test-time strategy makes it difficult to measure how agent performance scales. We study open-ended tasks that provide continuous scores for intermediate submissions, making progress observable throughout long trajectories. We propose Elo-per-token analysis, which tracks the best solution found at each token budget and uses a Bradley-Terry model to aggregate within-task orderings into Elo ratings across tasks with different score scales. We apply it to four general-purpose agents on four open-ended benchmarks, with sessions of up to 100M tokens, and to three feedback-driven LLM optimization harnesses in controlled single-task interventions. Independent sampling provides a theoretically characterized reference, for which Elo grows linearly with log compute. Against this reference, agents can initially convert tokens into Elo faster than independent sampling, but their marginal gains diminish and eventually fall below the reference. In contrast, the strongest historical human contestants improve superlinearly over contest time on shared AtCoder Heuristic Contest tasks, providing evidence of continual learning and substantial headroom after agents slow down. We define the scaling inflection point as the per-session budget where marginal Elo gains match the independent-sampling reference. Using this point as the per-session budget, we split 100M tokens across parallel sessions on FrontierCS Polyomino Packing, gaining +264 Elo over one long session and +355 over ten short sessions.

  • 9 authors
·
Sep 13 3

What did Elon change? A comprehensive analysis of Grokipedia

Elon Musk released Grokipedia on 27 October 2025 to provide an alternative to Wikipedia, the crowdsourced online encyclopedia. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive analysis of Grokipedia and compare it to a dump of Wikipedia, with a focus on article similarity and citation practices. Although Grokipedia articles are much longer than their corresponding English Wikipedia articles, we find that much of Grokipedia's content (including both articles with and without Creative Commons licenses) is highly derivative of Wikipedia. Nevertheless, citation practices between the sites differ greatly, with Grokipedia citing many more sources deemed "generally unreliable" or "blacklisted" by the English Wikipedia community and low quality by external scholars, including dozens of citations to sites like Stormfront and Infowars. We then analyze article subsets: one about elected officials, one about controversial topics, and one random subset for which we derive article quality and topic. We find that the elected official and controversial article subsets showed less similarity between their Wikipedia version and Grokipedia version than other pages. The random subset illustrates that Grokipedia focused rewriting the highest quality articles on Wikipedia, with a bias towards biographies, politics, society, and history. Finally, we publicly release our nearly-full scrape of Grokipedia, as well as embeddings of the entire Grokipedia corpus.

  • 2 authors
·
Nov 12, 2025

Eloquent: A More Robust Transmission Scheme for LLM Token Streaming

To render each generated token in real-time for users, the Large Language Model (LLM) server generates tokens one by one and streams each token (or group of a few tokens) through the network to the user right after generation, which we refer to as LLM token streaming. However, under unstable network conditions, the LLM token streaming experience could suffer greatly from stalls since one packet loss could block the rendering of later tokens even if the packets containing them arrive on time. With a measurement study, we show that current applications suffer from increased stalls under unstable networks. For this emerging token streaming problem in LLM Chatbots that differs from previous multimedia and text applications, we propose a novel transmission scheme, called Eloquent, which puts newly generated tokens as well as currently unacknowledged tokens in the next outgoing packet. This ensures that each packet contains some new tokens and, in the meantime, is independently rendered when received, avoiding the aforementioned stalls caused by missing packets. Through simulation under various networks, we show Eloquent reduces stall ratio (proportion of token rendering wait time) by 71.0% compared to the retransmission method commonly used by real chatbot applications and by 31.6% compared to the baseline packet duplication scheme. By tailoring Eloquent to fit the token-by-token generation of LLM, we enable the Chatbots to respond like an eloquent speaker for users to better enjoy pervasive AI.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 15, 2024

Evaluating RAG-Fusion with RAGElo: an Automated Elo-based Framework

Challenges in the automated evaluation of Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) Question-Answering (QA) systems include hallucination problems in domain-specific knowledge and the lack of gold standard benchmarks for company internal tasks. This results in difficulties in evaluating RAG variations, like RAG-Fusion (RAGF), in the context of a product QA task at Infineon Technologies. To solve these problems, we propose a comprehensive evaluation framework, which leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate large datasets of synthetic queries based on real user queries and in-domain documents, uses LLM-as-a-judge to rate retrieved documents and answers, evaluates the quality of answers, and ranks different variants of Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) agents with RAGElo's automated Elo-based competition. LLM-as-a-judge rating of a random sample of synthetic queries shows a moderate, positive correlation with domain expert scoring in relevance, accuracy, completeness, and precision. While RAGF outperformed RAG in Elo score, a significance analysis against expert annotations also shows that RAGF significantly outperforms RAG in completeness, but underperforms in precision. In addition, Infineon's RAGF assistant demonstrated slightly higher performance in document relevance based on MRR@5 scores. We find that RAGElo positively aligns with the preferences of human annotators, though due caution is still required. Finally, RAGF's approach leads to more complete answers based on expert annotations and better answers overall based on RAGElo's evaluation criteria.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 20, 2024 2

CodeElo: Benchmarking Competition-level Code Generation of LLMs with Human-comparable Elo Ratings

With the increasing code reasoning capabilities of existing large language models (LLMs) and breakthroughs in reasoning models like OpenAI o1 and o3, there is a growing need to develop more challenging and comprehensive benchmarks that effectively test their sophisticated competition-level coding abilities. Existing benchmarks, like LiveCodeBench and USACO, fall short due to the unavailability of private test cases, lack of support for special judges, and misaligned execution environments. To bridge this gap, we introduce CodeElo, a standardized competition-level code generation benchmark that effectively addresses all these challenges for the first time. CodeElo benchmark is mainly based on the official CodeForces platform and tries to align with the platform as much as possible. We compile the recent six months of contest problems on CodeForces with detailed information such as contest divisions, problem difficulty ratings, and problem algorithm tags. We introduce a unique judging method in which problems are submitted directly to the platform and develop a reliable Elo rating calculation system that aligns with the platform and is comparable with human participants but has lower variance. By testing on our CodeElo, we provide the Elo ratings of 30 existing popular open-source and 3 proprietary LLMs for the first time. The results show that o1-mini and QwQ-32B-Preview stand out significantly, achieving Elo ratings of 1578 and 1261, respectively, while other models struggle even with the easiest problems, placing in the lowest 20 percent among all human participants. Detailed analysis experiments are also conducted to provide insights into performance across algorithms and comparisons between using C++ and Python, which can suggest directions for future studies.

  • 17 authors
·
Jan 2, 2025 6

The interstellar flux gap: From dust to kilometer-scale objects

Context. Three kilometer-sized interstellar objects (ISOs) have been detected transiting the Solar System, and spacecraft have directly measured micrometer-scale interstellar dust (ISD). Yet no intermediate-size interstellar meteoroids have been identified in current meteor surveys. Aims. We test whether a power-law flux extrapolation connecting spacecraft ISD and kilometer-scale ISOs is consistent with meteor surveys, and we quantify the expected interstellar impacting flux based on various observational reports. Methods. We compiled differential fluxes and limits from spacecraft ISD, radar and optical meteor surveys, and theoretical estimates. We evaluated the power-law size-frequency fits, computed the 3I-like flux, and compared measured fluxes to predictions. Results. The spacecraft-measured dust flux exceeds extrapolations constrained by meteor surveys and kilometer-scale ISOs by sim2-7 orders of magnitude. An r^{-3.0} fit combining spacecraft ISD detections with kilometer-scale ISOs overpredicts the number of meteors with hyperbolic orbits, whereas slopes of r^{-2.7}-r^{-2.3} (derived from radar and optical meteor upper limits, respectively) instead yield interplanetary-to-interstellar flux ratios of 10^{3}-10^{6}. Conclusions. A simple power-law from ISD to ISOs is inconsistent with meteor survey constraints and yields unrealistic predictions for interstellar meteoroids. The data reveal a gap between submicron dust entrained in the Local Interstellar Cloud (LIC) and macroscopic bodies ejected from planetary systems. This gap may reflect distinct origins and destruction-transport processes rather than a continuous size-frequency distribution. This would imply either the dominance of a small-particle LIC component or the need to reassess spacecraft dust fluxes.

  • 2 authors
·
Nov 3, 2025

GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models

We investigate the potential implications of large language models (LLMs), such as Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPTs), on the U.S. labor market, focusing on the increased capabilities arising from LLM-powered software compared to LLMs on their own. Using a new rubric, we assess occupations based on their alignment with LLM capabilities, integrating both human expertise and GPT-4 classifications. Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. We do not make predictions about the development or adoption timeline of such LLMs. The projected effects span all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure to LLM capabilities and LLM-powered software. Significantly, these impacts are not restricted to industries with higher recent productivity growth. Our analysis suggests that, with access to an LLM, about 15% of all worker tasks in the US could be completed significantly faster at the same level of quality. When incorporating software and tooling built on top of LLMs, this share increases to between 47 and 56% of all tasks. This finding implies that LLM-powered software will have a substantial effect on scaling the economic impacts of the underlying models. We conclude that LLMs such as GPTs exhibit traits of general-purpose technologies, indicating that they could have considerable economic, social, and policy implications.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 17, 2023 6

Question-Answering Model for Schizophrenia Symptoms and Their Impact on Daily Life using Mental Health Forums Data

In recent years, there is strong emphasis on mining medical data using machine learning techniques. A common problem is to obtain a noiseless set of textual documents, with a relevant content for the research question, and developing a Question Answering (QA) model for a specific medical field. The purpose of this paper is to present a new methodology for building a medical dataset and obtain a QA model for analysis of symptoms and impact on daily life for a specific disease domain. The ``Mental Health'' forum was used, a forum dedicated to people suffering from schizophrenia and different mental disorders. Relevant posts of active users, who regularly participate, were extrapolated providing a new method of obtaining low-bias content and without privacy issues. Furthermore, it is shown how to pre-process the dataset to convert it into a QA dataset. The Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT), DistilBERT, RoBERTa, and BioBERT models were fine-tuned and evaluated via F1-Score, Exact Match, Precision and Recall. Accurate empirical experiments demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method for obtaining an accurate dataset for QA model implementation. By fine-tuning the BioBERT QA model, we achieved an F1 score of 0.885, showing a considerable improvement and outperforming the state-of-the-art model for mental disorders domain.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 30, 2023

ECOSoundSet: a finely annotated dataset for the automated acoustic identification of Orthoptera and Cicadidae in North, Central and temperate Western Europe

Currently available tools for the automated acoustic recognition of European insects in natural soundscapes are limited in scope. Large and ecologically heterogeneous acoustic datasets are currently needed for these algorithms to cross-contextually recognize the subtle and complex acoustic signatures produced by each species, thus making the availability of such datasets a key requisite for their development. Here we present ECOSoundSet (European Cicadidae and Orthoptera Sound dataSet), a dataset containing 10,653 recordings of 200 orthopteran and 24 cicada species (217 and 26 respective taxa when including subspecies) present in North, Central, and temperate Western Europe (Andorra, Belgium, Denmark, mainland France and Corsica, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Switzerland), collected partly through targeted fieldwork in South France and Catalonia and partly through contributions from various European entomologists. The dataset is composed of a combination of coarsely labeled recordings, for which we can only infer the presence, at some point, of their target species (weak labeling), and finely annotated recordings, for which we know the specific time and frequency range of each insect sound present in the recording (strong labeling). We also provide a train/validation/test split of the strongly labeled recordings, with respective approximate proportions of 0.8, 0.1 and 0.1, in order to facilitate their incorporation in the training and evaluation of deep learning algorithms. This dataset could serve as a meaningful complement to recordings already available online for the training of deep learning algorithms for the acoustic classification of orthopterans and cicadas in North, Central, and temperate Western Europe.

  • 26 authors
·
Apr 29, 2025

Raster2Seq: Polygon Sequence Generation for Floorplan Reconstruction

Reconstructing a structured vector-graphics representation from a rasterized floorplan image is typically an important prerequisite for computational tasks involving floorplans such as automated understanding or CAD workflows. However, existing techniques struggle in faithfully generating the structure and semantics conveyed by complex floorplans that depict large indoor spaces with many rooms and a varying numbers of polygon corners. To this end, we propose Raster2Seq, framing floorplan reconstruction as a sequence-to-sequence task in which floorplan elements--such as rooms, windows, and doors--are represented as labeled polygon sequences that jointly encode geometry and semantics. Our approach introduces an autoregressive decoder that learns to predict the next corner conditioned on image features and previously generated corners using guidance from learnable anchors. These anchors represent spatial coordinates in image space, hence allowing for effectively directing the attention mechanism to focus on informative image regions. By embracing the autoregressive mechanism, our method offers flexibility in the output format, enabling for efficiently handling complex floorplans with numerous rooms and diverse polygon structures. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on standard benchmarks such as Structure3D, CubiCasa5K, and Raster2Graph, while also demonstrating strong generalization to more challenging datasets like WAFFLE, which contain diverse room structures and complex geometric variations.

MV-Forcing: Long Multi-View Video Generation via 4D-Grounded Spatio-Temporal Self-Forcing

Recent advances in video diffusion models have enabled either long single-view generation through temporal autoregression, or short multi-view synthesis through bidirectional attention. However, generating long, multi-view consistent videos of dynamic scenes remains unsolved. In this work, we present MV-Forcing, a framework that composes temporal and view-wise autoregression within a single diffusion model by introducing a 4D geometric bridge between sequentially generated views. Our key insight is that an autoregressive 3D reconstruction model naturally interfaces between autoregressively generated views. Given a completed source view, we reconstruct its 3D structure and render a geometric prior of the next target viewpoint, which the diffusion model refines into a high-quality video. To extend generation beyond the teacher's fixed temporal window, we introduce a joint denoising regime where both view slots are initialized from noise during training, enabling temporally unbounded generation. We distill the model via Distribution Matching Distillation with Spatio-Temporal Self-Forcing, closing the train-inference exposure bias gap for both temporal and view-sequential autoregression. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that MV-Forcing produces geometrically consistent multi-view videos of dynamic scenes at arbitrary lengths and viewpoint counts using a single few-step student model.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 5 2

OCTET: Object-aware Counterfactual Explanations

Nowadays, deep vision models are being widely deployed in safety-critical applications, e.g., autonomous driving, and explainability of such models is becoming a pressing concern. Among explanation methods, counterfactual explanations aim to find minimal and interpretable changes to the input image that would also change the output of the model to be explained. Such explanations point end-users at the main factors that impact the decision of the model. However, previous methods struggle to explain decision models trained on images with many objects, e.g., urban scenes, which are more difficult to work with but also arguably more critical to explain. In this work, we propose to tackle this issue with an object-centric framework for counterfactual explanation generation. Our method, inspired by recent generative modeling works, encodes the query image into a latent space that is structured in a way to ease object-level manipulations. Doing so, it provides the end-user with control over which search directions (e.g., spatial displacement of objects, style modification, etc.) are to be explored during the counterfactual generation. We conduct a set of experiments on counterfactual explanation benchmarks for driving scenes, and we show that our method can be adapted beyond classification, e.g., to explain semantic segmentation models. To complete our analysis, we design and run a user study that measures the usefulness of counterfactual explanations in understanding a decision model. Code is available at https://github.com/valeoai/OCTET.

  • 6 authors
·
Nov 22, 2022

RAP: 3D Rasterization Augmented End-to-End Planning

Imitation learning for end-to-end driving trains policies only on expert demonstrations. Once deployed in a closed loop, such policies lack recovery data: small mistakes cannot be corrected and quickly compound into failures. A promising direction is to generate alternative viewpoints and trajectories beyond the logged path. Prior work explores photorealistic digital twins via neural rendering or game engines, but these methods are prohibitively slow and costly, and thus mainly used for evaluation. In this work, we argue that photorealism is unnecessary for training end-to-end planners. What matters is semantic fidelity and scalability: driving depends on geometry and dynamics, not textures or lighting. Motivated by this, we propose 3D Rasterization, which replaces costly rendering with lightweight rasterization of annotated primitives, enabling augmentations such as counterfactual recovery maneuvers and cross-agent view synthesis. To transfer these synthetic views effectively to real-world deployment, we introduce a Raster-to-Real feature-space alignment that bridges the sim-to-real gap. Together, these components form Rasterization Augmented Planning (RAP), a scalable data augmentation pipeline for planning. RAP achieves state-of-the-art closed-loop robustness and long-tail generalization, ranking first on four major benchmarks: NAVSIM v1/v2, Waymo Open Dataset Vision-based E2E Driving, and Bench2Drive. Our results show that lightweight rasterization with feature alignment suffices to scale E2E training, offering a practical alternative to photorealistic rendering. Project page: https://alan-lanfeng.github.io/RAP/.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 5, 2025

Is BERT Blind? Exploring the Effect of Vision-and-Language Pretraining on Visual Language Understanding

Most humans use visual imagination to understand and reason about language, but models such as BERT reason about language using knowledge acquired during text-only pretraining. In this work, we investigate whether vision-and-language pretraining can improve performance on text-only tasks that involve implicit visual reasoning, focusing primarily on zero-shot probing methods. We propose a suite of visual language understanding (VLU) tasks for probing the visual reasoning abilities of text encoder models, as well as various non-visual natural language understanding (NLU) tasks for comparison. We also contribute a novel zero-shot knowledge probing method, Stroop probing, for applying models such as CLIP to text-only tasks without needing a prediction head such as the masked language modelling head of models like BERT. We show that SOTA multimodally trained text encoders outperform unimodally trained text encoders on the VLU tasks while being underperformed by them on the NLU tasks, lending new context to previously mixed results regarding the NLU capabilities of multimodal models. We conclude that exposure to images during pretraining affords inherent visual reasoning knowledge that is reflected in language-only tasks that require implicit visual reasoning. Our findings bear importance in the broader context of multimodal learning, providing principled guidelines for the choice of text encoders used in such contexts.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 21, 2023

Representation Distribution Matching for One-Step Visual Generation

We elucidate the design space of Representation Distribution Matching (RDM), our name for the paradigm that trains a one-step image generator by matching generated and reference feature distributions under frozen pretrained encoders. We identify two design axes, how the distributions are compared and the representations they are compared in, and controlled studies along them yield three findings. First, the classical MMD, which could not train convincing generators a decade ago, becomes a strong and scalable objective once estimated right. Second, the generated batch is then the operative variable, with an optimum above 2048, far beyond customary batch sizes. Third, any single representation can be gamed, driven below the real score while images stay visibly fake, so we match against a balanced battery of encoders and evaluate with SW_r14, a Sliced-Wasserstein distance over 14 encoders that is independent of the training loss and resists gaming. Combining the preferred choices yields improved RDM (iRDM): it sets the one-step state of the art on ImageNet at SW_r14 1.30, corroborated by PickScore, a human-preference proxy our objective never optimizes, which prefers it over the prior best one-step generator on 71.2% of matched samples. The same recipe post-trains the four-step FLUX.2 [klein] into a one-step generator, surpassing the four-step version on GenEval, 0.826 to 0.794, and on PickScore, 22.76 to 22.58, in 90 H200 GPU-hours. Project page: https://alan-lanfeng.github.io/rdm/.

Latent-Identity Tuning in Text-to-Image Personalization Models

Generating and editing a person's face demands high precision, as even minor modifications can significantly alter a subject's perceived identity. Current personalization and editing methods built on general-purpose text-to-image models, however, often lack the precision required for fine-grained facial edits. We present a method for fine-grained identity tuning in text-to-image personalization models. Unlike standard image editing, which operates on a given image, identity tuning modifies the latent representation of a specific identity, enabling the generation of diverse images that consistently depict the same edited identity. To enable fine-grained latent identity tuning, we explore the latent space of a pre-trained, frozen encoder for text-to-image personalization. Our approach requires no additional training. Instead, it leverages the existing architecture of a frozen encoder to uncover latent semantic directions. This space consists of a set of latent tokens that play distinct roles in capturing different aspects of an identity and often correspond to specific spatial or semantic facial regions. We show that meaningful directions can be identified within this space and within subspaces defined by selected tokens, enabling localized, fine-grained, and semantically coherent edits. We validate our approach through qualitative and quantitative experiments that demonstrate diverse localized facial edits while preserving cross-image identity consistency. Project page at: https://garibida.github.io/IdentityTuning/

Learning to Read the Contextual Tokens in Diffusion Transformers

Multimodal Diffusion Transformers (MM-DiTs) jointly process visual and textual representations throughout generation. These models repeatedly update the text tokens through multimodal attention, forming dynamic contextual tokens whose function is not well understood. In this work, we introduce a framework for reading this contextual space through natural-language interrogation. We train a lightweight bottleneck network that maps intermediate contextual tokens into the input space of a frozen Large Language Model (LLM), allowing the LLM to answer questions about the emerging image directly from these hidden representations. Our reader reveals that contextual tokens encode a rich, global representation of the emerging scene: generation-specific semantics, including attributes left underspecified by the prompt, are accessible surprisingly early in denoising, while increasingly fine-grained details become readable over time. Remarkably, this information remains decodable even when the MM-DiT receives an empty prompt, showing that contextual tokens accumulate substantial image-specific information from the evolving visual representation itself. We further find that generations with more readable contextual representations tend to receive higher human-preference scores. Building on these observations, we introduce Contextual Alignment, a training technique that explicitly reinforces the visual-semantic information encoded in the contextual tokens, improving generation quality and distributional coverage. Together, our results establish contextual tokens as both an interpretable view into the internal dynamics of MM-DiTs and an effective target for improving generative models.