Daily Papers

Model quantization has become essential for efficient large language model deployment, yet existing approaches present clear trade-offs: methods such as GPTQ and AWQ achieve practical compression but are lossy, while lossless techniques preserve fidelity but lack inference acceleration. This paper explores the middle ground of statistically-lossless compression, examining three complementary aspects of what losslessness means for quantized LLMs. First, task-lossless compression preserves zero-shot benchmark accuracy within natural sampling variance and is achievable at aggressive bitwidths. Second, we formalize the stricter notion of distribution-lossless compression, requiring the quantized model's next-token distribution to be practically indistinguishable from the original, and propose the Expected Acceptance Rate (EAR), the maximum token-agreement probability under optimal coupling, as a directly interpretable fidelity metric. For example, EAR >= 0.99 means 99% agreement. Third, we prove a gamma-squared variance law showing that symmetric quantization inflates noise variance by gamma^2 relative to asymmetric quantization, making asymmetric quantization a prerequisite for distribution-lossless fidelity but not for task-level preservation. Through SLQ, a layer-wise non-uniform method with asymmetric quantization and wide bitwidth search, we obtain task-lossless compression at well below 4 bits per parameter, as low as 3.3 bits depending on the model, distribution-lossless compression at 5-6 bits per parameter on average, and inference speedups of 1.7-3.7x compared to FP16 using optimized kernels. Source code is available at [https://github.com/IST-DASLab/SLQ](https://github.com/IST-DASLab/SLQ).

Frontier deep research agents (DRAs) plan a research task, synthesize across documents, and return a structured deliverable on demand. They are being deployed in enterprise workflows faster than they are being evaluated. Existing benchmarks measure factual recall, single-hop QA, or generic agentic skill, missing the multi-document, decision-grade work DRAs are deployed to produce. We introduce a benchmark targeting the structured analytical deliverables that fill a management consultant's typical week. We grade three frontier agents, namely Claude Opus 4.6 with web search, OpenAI o3-deep-research, and Google Gemini 3.1 Pro deep-research, on 42 SME-authored prompts. Each of the 126 responses is scored on two layers: deterministic ground-truth verifiers (mean 13.8 per task) and a five-criterion 0-3 SME rubric, composed into a Verifier-Rubric Score (VRS) on 0-100. Most prompts embed cognitive traps that penalize surface-pattern matching. Acceptance under our joint threshold (rubric mean >= 2.5 and verifier rate >= 80%) is uniformly low: Gemini 21.4%, o3 9.5%, Claude 9.5%. Mean VRS scores agree with published rubric-based benchmarks (our top 62.6 vs. APEX-v1 64.2, ProfBench 65.9, ResearchRubrics < 68%), validating the rubric construct. ACCEPT rates sit below APEX-Agents' MC-segment Pass@1 band (12.3-22.7%) on dedicated DR agents; our floor is three points lower despite the harness advantage, opened by stricter conjunctive grading and trap design. Each agent fails distinctively. Claude produces the deliverable most reliably (4.5x the others' rate on file-required tasks) but carries the highest fabrication signature. o3 has the cleanest reasoning average yet drops required sections and propagates arithmetic errors. Gemini is bimodal, with the highest acceptance rate alongside the most zero-scored rubric cells.

Speculative decoding reduces the inference latency of a target large language model via utilizing a smaller and faster draft model. Its performance depends on a hyperparameter K -- the candidate length, i.e., the number of candidate tokens for the target model to verify in each round. However, previous methods often use simple heuristics to choose K, which may result in sub-optimal performance. We study the choice of the candidate length K and formulate it as a Markov Decision Process. We theoretically show that the optimal policy of this Markov decision process takes the form of a threshold policy, i.e., the current speculation should stop and be verified when the probability of getting a rejection exceeds a threshold value. Motivated by this theory, we propose SpecDec++, an enhanced version of speculative decoding that adaptively determines the candidate length on the fly. We augment the draft model with a trained acceptance prediction head to predict the conditional acceptance probability of the candidate tokens. SpecDec++ will stop the current speculation when the predicted probability that at least one token gets rejected exceeds a threshold. We implement SpecDec++ and apply it to the llama-2-chat 7B & 70B model pair. Our adaptive method achieves a 2.04x speedup on the Alpaca dataset (an additional 7.2% improvement over the baseline speculative decoding). On the GSM8K and HumanEval datasets, our method achieves a 2.26x speedup (9.4% improvement) and 2.23x speedup (11.1% improvement), respectively.

The emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) has significantly influenced various aspects of software development activities. Despite their benefits, LLMs also pose notable risks, including the potential to generate harmful content and being abused by malicious developers to create malicious code. Several previous studies have focused on the ability of LLMs to resist the generation of harmful content that violates human ethical standards, such as biased or offensive content. However, there is no research evaluating the ability of LLMs to resist malicious code generation. To fill this gap, we propose RMCBench, the first benchmark comprising 473 prompts designed to assess the ability of LLMs to resist malicious code generation. This benchmark employs two scenarios: a text-to-code scenario, where LLMs are prompted with descriptions to generate code, and a code-to-code scenario, where LLMs translate or complete existing malicious code. Based on RMCBench, we conduct an empirical study on 11 representative LLMs to assess their ability to resist malicious code generation. Our findings indicate that current LLMs have a limited ability to resist malicious code generation with an average refusal rate of 40.36% in text-to-code scenario and 11.52% in code-to-code scenario. The average refusal rate of all LLMs in RMCBench is only 28.71%; ChatGPT-4 has a refusal rate of only 35.73%. We also analyze the factors that affect LLMs' ability to resist malicious code generation and provide implications for developers to enhance model robustness.

We present detailed morphology measurements for 8.67 million galaxies in the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys (DECaLS, MzLS, and BASS, plus DES). These are automated measurements made by deep learning models trained on Galaxy Zoo volunteer votes. Our models typically predict the fraction of volunteers selecting each answer to within 5-10\% for every answer to every GZ question. The models are trained on newly-collected votes for DESI-LS DR8 images as well as historical votes from GZ DECaLS. We also release the newly-collected votes. Extending our morphology measurements outside of the previously-released DECaLS/SDSS intersection increases our sky coverage by a factor of 4 (5,000 to 19,000 deg^2) and allows for full overlap with complementary surveys including ALFALFA and MaNGA.

This study explores the relationship between textual features and Information Engagement (IE) on digital platforms. It highlights the impact of computational linguistics and analytics on user interaction. The READ model is introduced to quantify key predictors like representativeness, ease of use, affect, and distribution, which forecast engagement levels. The model's effectiveness is validated through AB testing and randomized trials, showing strong predictive performance in participation (accuracy: 0.94), perception (accuracy: 0.85), perseverance (accuracy: 0.81), and overall IE (accuracy: 0.97). While participation metrics are strong, perception and perseverance show slightly lower recall and F1-scores, indicating some challenges. The study demonstrates that modifying text based on the READ model's insights leads to significant improvements. For example, increasing representativeness and positive affect boosts selection rates by 11 percent, raises evaluation averages from 3.98 to 4.46, and improves retention rates by 11 percent. These findings highlight the importance of linguistic factors in IE, providing a framework for enhancing digital text engagement. The research offers practical strategies applicable to fields like education, health, and media.

Language models in production do not write prose. They fill forms: JSON fields, function arguments, extraction templates. We show that the form itself causes hallucination. We ask thirteen models the same question about the same input and change only the answer format. The inputs are built so the question cannot be answered: a viral post showing 12,400 likes but no visible replies, a support ticket whose call was never transcribed. In free text, GPT-5.5 answers honestly. It says there is no reply data, 98% of the time. Given a required JSON field for sentiment, the same model invents an answer 40 times out of 40. It fabricates the mood of crowds it never saw and quotes customers it never heard. The pattern holds with force. Required fields drive fabrication to 100% in ten of thirteen models. An explicit "insufficient evidence" option rescues only the frontier: all nine open-weight models ignore it. A direct instruction, do not infer sentiment, is overridden by the schema in four of six models. Resistance does not come with scale: within a single model family, the smallest model refuses, the mid-sized model fabricates, the largest refuses again. Honesty under format pressure is a training outcome that no one is measuring. The fabrication hides exactly where hedging is impossible: in required enums and minimum-count arrays, fields where no disclaimer fits. We release PhantomFill, a benchmark with deterministic scoring and two reportable numbers: the Coerced Fabrication Rate and the Escape Utilization Rate. The fix we test is one line of schema. The failure we measure is everywhere.

Large language models (LLMs) have become popular writing tools among students and may expand access to high-quality feedback for students with less access to traditional writing support. At the same time, LLMs may standardize student voice or invite overreliance. This study examines how adoption of LLM-assisted writing varies across socioeconomic groups and how it relates to outcomes in a high-stakes context: U.S. college admissions. We analyze a de-identified longitudinal dataset of applications to a selective university from 2020 to 2024 (N = 81,663). Estimating LLM use using a distribution-based detector trained on synthetic and historical essays, we tracked how student writing changed as LLM use proliferated, how adoption differed by socioeconomic status (SES), and whether potential benefits translated equitably into admissions outcomes. Using fee-waiver status as a proxy for SES, we observe post-2023 convergence in surface-level linguistic features, with the largest changes in fee-waived and rejected applicants. Estimated LLM use rose sharply in 2024 across all groups, with disproportionately larger increases among lower SES applicants, consistent with an access hypothesis in which LLMs substitute for scarce writing support. However, increased estimated LLM use was more strongly associated with declines in predicted admission probability for lower SES applicants than for higher SES applicants, even after controlling for academic credentials and stylometric features. These findings raise concerns about equity and the validity of essay-based evaluation in an era of AI-assisted writing and provide the first large-scale longitudinal evidence linking LLM adoption, linguistic change, and evaluative outcomes in college admissions.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become an indispensable part of natural language processing tasks. However, autoregressive sampling has become an efficiency bottleneck. Multi-Draft Speculative Decoding (MDSD) is a recent approach where, when generating each token, a small draft model generates multiple drafts, and the target LLM verifies them in parallel, ensuring that the final output conforms to the target model distribution. The two main design choices in MDSD are the draft sampling method and the verification algorithm. For a fixed draft sampling method, the optimal acceptance rate is a solution to an optimal transport problem, but the complexity of this problem makes it difficult to solve for the optimal acceptance rate and measure the gap between existing verification algorithms and the theoretical upper bound. This paper discusses the dual of the optimal transport problem, providing a way to efficiently compute the optimal acceptance rate. For the first time, we measure the theoretical upper bound of MDSD efficiency for vocabulary sizes in the thousands and quantify the gap between existing verification algorithms and this bound. We also compare different draft sampling methods based on their optimal acceptance rates. Our results show that the draft sampling method strongly influences the optimal acceptance rate, with sampling without replacement outperforming sampling with replacement. Additionally, existing verification algorithms do not reach the theoretical upper bound for both without replacement and with replacement sampling. Our findings suggest that carefully designed draft sampling methods can potentially improve the optimal acceptance rate and enable the development of verification algorithms that closely match the theoretical upper bound.

We present a human-and-model-in-the-loop process for dynamically generating datasets and training better performing and more robust hate detection models. We provide a new dataset of ~40,000 entries, generated and labelled by trained annotators over four rounds of dynamic data creation. It includes ~15,000 challenging perturbations and each hateful entry has fine-grained labels for the type and target of hate. Hateful entries make up 54% of the dataset, which is substantially higher than comparable datasets. We show that model performance is substantially improved using this approach. Models trained on later rounds of data collection perform better on test sets and are harder for annotators to trick. They also perform better on HateCheck, a suite of functional tests for online hate detection. We provide the code, dataset and annotation guidelines for other researchers to use. Accepted at ACL 2021.

Speculative decoding accelerates autoregressive large language model (LLM) inference by using a lightweight draft model to propose candidate tokens that are then verified in parallel by the target model. The speedup is significantly determined by the acceptance rate, yet standard training minimizes Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence as a proxy objective. While KL divergence and acceptance rate share the same global optimum, small draft models, having limited capacity, typically converge to suboptimal solutions where minimizing KL does not guarantee maximizing acceptance rate. To address this issue, we propose LK losses, special training objectives that directly target acceptance rate. Comprehensive experiments across four draft architectures and six target models, ranging from 8B to 685B parameters, demonstrate consistent improvements in acceptance metrics across all configurations compared to the standard KL-based training. We evaluate our approach on general, coding and math domains and report gains of up to 8-10% in average acceptance length. LK losses are easy to implement, introduce no computational overhead and can be directly integrated into any existing speculator training framework, making them a compelling alternative to the existing draft training objectives.

Many studies explore how people 'come into' misinformation exposure. But much less is known about how people 'come out of' misinformation exposure. Do people organically sever ties to misinformation spreaders? And what predicts doing so? Over six months, we tracked the frequency and predictors of ~1M followers unfollowing ~5K health misinformation spreaders on Twitter. We found that misinformation ties are persistent. Monthly unfollowing rates are just 0.52%. Users are also 31% more likely to unfollow non-misinformation spreaders than they are to unfollow misinformation spreaders. Although generally infrequent, the factors most associated with unfollowing misinformation spreaders are (1) redundancy and (2) ideology. First, users initially following many spreaders, or who follow spreaders that tweet often, are most likely to unfollow later. Second, liberals are more likely to unfollow than conservatives. Overall, we observe strong persistence of misinformation ties. The fact that users rarely unfollow misinformation spreaders suggests a need for external nudges and the importance of preventing exposure from arising in the first place.

Speculative sampling (SpS) has been successful in accelerating the decoding throughput of auto-regressive large language models by leveraging smaller draft models. SpS strictly enforces the generated distribution to match that of the verifier LLM. This is unnecessarily restrictive as slight variations of the verifier's distribution, such as sampling with top-k or temperature, would also be acceptable. Typical acceptance sampling (TAS) alleviates this issue by accepting more tokens using entropy-based heuristics. However, this approach distorts the verifier distribution, potentially degrading output quality when the verifier encodes critical information. In this work, we formalize the speculative sampling algorithm through the lens of constrained optimization. Based on this formulation, we propose Cactus (constrained acceptance speculative sampling), a method that guarantees controlled divergence from the verifier distribution and increasing acceptance rates. Empirical results across a wide range of benchmarks confirm the effectiveness of our approach.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a key component in modern large language models, yet the rollout stage remains the key bottleneck in RL training pipelines. Although Multi-Token Prediction (MTP) offers a natural solution to accelerate rollouts through speculative decoding, many studies have observed that MTP acceptance rates degrade significantly during RL training, leading to limited speedup performance. To address this bottleneck, we present Bebop, a systematic study of MTP in LLM post-training, and offer practical recipes to integrate MTP into large-scale RL pipelines. First, we reveal that the MTP acceptance rate is fundamentally bounded by the fluctuation of model entropy, which demonstrates a clear negative linear relationship with the rise of entropy in the RL stage. Second, we show that probabilistic rejection sampling largely alleviates the disturbance introduced by entropy in RL compared to greedy draft sampling. We further identify that the conventional MTP training objectives (cross-entropy or KL) are suboptimal in such settings, and therefore we propose a novel end-to-end TV loss that directly optimizes multi-step rejection sampling acceptance rate, yielding ~10% acceptance rate improvements, achieving up to 95% acceptance rates and up to 25% extra inference throughput gains across mathematical reasoning, code generation, and agentic tasks. Third, we test various online MTP training strategies during RL and show that pre-RL MTP training with e2e TV loss and rejection sampling achieves a consistent acceptance rate and speedup throughout the entire RL, eliminating the need for costly online MTP updating. We provide extensive experiments and analysis that validate our findings. Experimental results show our method achieves up to 1.8x end-to-end acceleration in async RL training of Qwen3.5, Qwen3.6, and Qwen3.7 models.

There is a strong association between the quality of the writing in a resume for new labor market entrants and whether those entrants are ultimately hired. We show that this relationship is, at least partially, causal: a field experiment in an online labor market was conducted with nearly half a million jobseekers in which a treated group received algorithmic writing assistance. Treated jobseekers experienced an 8% increase in the probability of getting hired. Contrary to concerns that the assistance is taking away a valuable signal, we find no evidence that employers were less satisfied. We present a model in which better writing is not a signal of ability but helps employers ascertain ability, which rationalizes our findings.

Language models trained with reinforcement learning may learn to optimize the grader's judgment rather than the intended objective. This "reward-seeking" is difficult to measure because a model that pursues the grader's judgment and one that pursues the intended objective behave identically whenever the grader rewards the intended behavior. We measure reward-seeking using Contrastive Synthetic Document Finetuning to change a model's beliefs about what the grader rewards, putting those beliefs in conflict with what users or developers want, and measuring the rate at which the model adopts each party's preferred behavior. Applied to intermediate checkpoints of a capabilities-focused OpenAI o3 RL run, without safety training, we find that these checkpoints often side with grader preferences over those of users or developers on coding and alignment tasks. This tendency to side with the grader trends upward throughout RL training. For example, in an environment that forces a choice between keeping a promise to a supervisor and breaking it to complete the task, a late capabilities-focused o3 checkpoint breaks the promise 87% of the time when SDF documents say the grader rewards task completion, versus 9% when they say it rewards honesty (a choice its chain-of-thought often makes explicit). An earlier checkpoint is far less sensitive (40% vs. 24%). Our method also generalizes to reward-hacking models. A model organism trained to reward-hack (gpt-oss-120b) is more than twice as sensitive to grader preferences as the unmodified model, with the mean behavioral shift in favor of the grader rising from 33% to 86%. These results indicate that RL can increase reward-seeking over the course of training, producing models that may act against their developers' intentions when they believe that doing so leads to higher reward.

Speculative Decoding (SD) is a technique to accelerate the inference of Large Language Models (LLMs) by using a lower complexity draft model to propose candidate tokens verified by a larger target model. To further improve efficiency, Multi-Candidate Speculative Decoding (MCSD) improves upon this by sampling multiple candidate tokens from the draft model at each step and verifying them in parallel, thus increasing the chances of accepting a token and reducing generation time. Existing MCSD methods rely on the draft model to initialize the multi-candidate sequences and use static length and tree attention structure for draft generation. However, such an approach suffers from the draft and target model's output distribution differences, especially in dynamic generation context. In this work, we introduce an improved version of MCSD that includes a target model initialized multi-candidate process, dynamic sliced topology-aware causal mask for dynamic length adjustment, and decision models to optimize early stopping. Our framework improves the acceptance rate, defined as the ratio of the longest draft sequence length accepted by the target model over the maximum draft sequence length, by a maximum of 164% and gains a maximum of 75% generation speed up over the MCSD baseline. We also conduct an ablation study to evaluate the impact of the decision model.

We evaluated 4 systems (ELIZA, GPT-4o, LLaMa-3.1-405B, and GPT-4.5) in two randomised, controlled, and pre-registered Turing tests on independent populations. Participants had 5 minute conversations simultaneously with another human participant and one of these systems before judging which conversational partner they thought was human. When prompted to adopt a humanlike persona, GPT-4.5 was judged to be the human 73% of the time: significantly more often than interrogators selected the real human participant. LLaMa-3.1, with the same prompt, was judged to be the human 56% of the time -- not significantly more or less often than the humans they were being compared to -- while baseline models (ELIZA and GPT-4o) achieved win rates significantly below chance (23% and 21% respectively). The results constitute the first empirical evidence that any artificial system passes a standard three-party Turing test. The results have implications for debates about what kind of intelligence is exhibited by Large Language Models (LLMs), and the social and economic impacts these systems are likely to have.

We consider multi-draft speculative sampling, where the proposal sequences are sampled independently from different draft models. At each step, a token-level draft selection scheme takes a list of valid tokens as input and produces an output token whose distribution matches that of the target model. Previous works have demonstrated that the optimal scheme (which maximizes the probability of accepting one of the input tokens) can be cast as a solution to a linear program. In this work we show that the optimal scheme can be decomposed into a two-step solution: in the first step an importance sampling (IS) type scheme is used to select one intermediate token; in the second step (single-draft) speculative sampling is applied to generate the output token. For the case of two identical draft models we further 1) establish a necessary and sufficient condition on the distributions of the target and draft models for the acceptance probability to equal one and 2) provide an explicit expression for the optimal acceptance probability. Our theoretical analysis also motives a new class of token-level selection scheme based on weighted importance sampling. Our experimental results demonstrate consistent improvements in the achievable block efficiency and token rates over baseline schemes in a number of scenarios.

Large language models have shown impressive capabilities across a variety of NLP tasks, yet their generating text autoregressively is time-consuming. One way to speed them up is speculative decoding, which generates candidate segments (a sequence of tokens) from a fast draft model that is then verified in parallel by the target model. However, the acceptance rate of candidate tokens receives limitations from several factors, such as the model, the dataset, and the decoding setup. This paper proposes sampling multiple candidates from a draft model and then organising them in batches for verification. We design algorithms for efficient multi-candidate verification while maintaining the distribution of the target model. Our approach shows significant improvements in acceptance rates on multiple datasets and models, consistently outperforming standard speculative decoding.

The robot learning community has made great strides in recent years, proposing new architectures and showcasing impressive new capabilities; however, the dominant metric used in the literature, especially for physical experiments, is "success rate", i.e. the percentage of runs that were successful. Furthermore, it is common for papers to report this number with little to no information regarding the number of runs, the initial conditions, and the success criteria, little to no narrative description of the behaviors and failures observed, and little to no statistical analysis of the findings. In this paper we argue that to move the field forward, researchers should provide a nuanced evaluation of their methods, especially when evaluating and comparing learned policies on physical robots. To do so, we propose best practices for future evaluations: explicitly reporting the experimental conditions, evaluating several metrics designed to complement success rate, conducting statistical analysis, and adding a qualitative description of failures modes. We illustrate these through an evaluation on physical robots of several learned policies for manipulation tasks.

The field of AI research is advancing at an unprecedented pace, enabling automated hypothesis generation and experimental design across diverse domains such as biology, mathematics, and artificial intelligence. Despite these advancements, there remains a significant gap in the availability of scalable advising systems capable of providing high-quality, well-reasoned feedback to refine proposed hypotheses and experimental designs. To address this challenge, we explore key factors that underlie the development of robust advising systems, including model size, context length, confidence estimation, and structured reasoning processes. Our findings reveal that a relatively small model, when equipped with a well-compressed literature database and a structured reasoning framework, can outperform powerful general-purpose language models such as Deepseek-R1 in terms of acceptance rates for self-ranked top-30% submissions to ICLR 2025. Moreover, when limited to high-confidence predictions, our system achieves an acceptance rate exceeding 90% on the ICLR 2025 test set, underscoring its potential to significantly enhance the quality and efficiency of hypothesis generation and experimental design. The code is released at https://github.com/HowardLiu0830/GUIDE-Research-Idea-Evaluation.

The application of large language models (LLMs) in the field of coding is evolving rapidly: from code assistants, to autonomous coding agents, and then to generating complete projects through natural language. Early LLM code benchmarks primarily focused on code generation accuracy, but these benchmarks have gradually become saturated. Benchmark saturation weakens their guiding role for LLMs. For example, HumanEval Pass@1 has reached 99.4% and MBPP 94.2%. Among various attempts to address benchmark saturation, approaches based on software engineering have stood out, but the saturation of existing software engineering benchmarks is rapidly increasing. To address this, we propose a new benchmark, Web-Bench, which contains 50 projects, each consisting of 20 tasks with sequential dependencies. The tasks implement project features in sequence, simulating real-world human development workflows. When designing Web-Bench, we aim to cover the foundational elements of Web development: Web Standards and Web Frameworks. Given the scale and complexity of these projects, which were designed by engineers with 5 to 10 years of experience, each presents a significant challenge. On average, a single project takes 4 to 8 hours for a senior engineer to complete. On our given benchmark agent (Web-Agent), SOTA (Claude 3.7 Sonnet) achieves only 25.1% Pass@1, significantly lower (better) than SWE-Bench's Verified (65.4%) and Full (33.8%) scores. Finally, we discuss that in any development field, Standards and Frameworks represent foundational knowledge and efficiency tools, respectively, and LLMs require optimization tailored to them.

Speculative decoding accelerates large language model (LLM) inference by using a small draft model to propose candidate tokens that a larger target model verifies. A critical hyperparameter in this process is the speculation length γ, which determines how many tokens the draft model proposes per step. Nearly all existing systems use a fixed γ (typically 4), yet empirical evidence suggests that the optimal value varies across task types and, crucially, depends on the compression level applied to the target model. In this paper, we present SpecKV, a lightweight adaptive controller that selects γ per speculation step using signals extracted from the draft model itself. We profile speculative decoding across 4 task categories, 4 speculation lengths, and 3 compression levels (FP16, INT8, NF4), collecting 5,112 step-level records with per-step acceptance rates, draft entropy, and draft confidence. We demonstrate that the optimal γ shifts across compression regimes and that draft model confidence and entropy are strong predictors of acceptance rate (correlation approx 0.56). SpecKV uses a small MLP trained on these signals to maximize expected tokens per speculation step, achieving a 56.0% improvement over the fixed-γ=4 baseline with only 0.34 ms overhead per decision (<0.5% of step time). The improvement is statistically significant (p < 0.001, paired bootstrap test). We release all profiling data, trained models, and notebooks as open-source artifacts.