Daily Papers

Clinical decision-making relies on identifying relevant patient information to guide diagnosis and treatment, a challenge that is especially difficult in the data-dense and rapidly changing intensive care unit (ICU). Large language models (LLMs) could support this task. However, existing applications and datasets mostly emphasize surface-level retrieval or factual recall rather than the inductive and deductive reasoning clinicians practice to select and reason over decision-relevant evidence. We hypothesized that training LLMs on expert ICU reasoning could yield clinical reasoning skills that generalize beyond critical care. Here we introduce ICU-REACT, a reasoning dataset developed with 19 clinicians through a clinician-in-the-loop framework to teach LLMs to perform information retrieval and context-aware clinical reasoning in the ICU. Using ICU-REACT, we fine-tuned Clin-REACT models spanning 8B-70B parameters and three model families. Across five clinical reasoning benchmarks, Clin-REACT consistently outperformed its backbone models and open-source general-purpose and medical LLMs. Gains extended to different tasks including script concordance tests, and downstream diagnosis and treatment tasks. These findings suggest that expert reasoning supervision in critical care can improve broader clinical reasoning, although prospective evaluation is needed before real-world clinical use.

Generative models trained using self-supervision of tokenized electronic health record (EHR) timelines show promise for clinical outcome prediction. This is typically done using Monte Carlo simulation for future patient trajectories. However, existing approaches suffer from three key limitations: sparse estimate distributions that poorly differentiate patient risk levels, extreme computational costs, and high sampling variance. We propose two new estimators: the Sum of Conditional Outcome Probability Estimator (SCOPE) and Risk Estimation from Anticipated Conditional Hazards (REACH), that leverage next-token probability distributions discarded by standard Monte Carlo. We prove both estimators are unbiased and that REACH guarantees variance reduction over Monte Carlo sampling for any model and outcome. Empirically, on hospital mortality prediction in MIMIC-IV using the ETHOS-ARES framework, SCOPE and REACH match 100-sample Monte Carlo performance using only 10-11 samples (95% CI: [9,11]), representing a ~10x reduction in inference cost without degrading calibration. For ICU admission prediction, efficiency gains are more modest (~1.2x), which we attribute to the outcome's lower "spontaneity," a property we characterize theoretically and empirically. These methods substantially improve the feasibility of deploying generative EHR models in resource-constrained clinical settings.