Daily Papers

We introduce IND-Eval, a public benchmark that organizes industrial time series across domains into source-specific forecasting tasks. Relative to established benchmarks such as GIFT-Eval, it emphasizes finer sampling resolutions and a greater prevalence of multivariate forecasting. Evaluating Chronos-2, TiRex-2, and TimesFM-3, we find that TimesFM-3 achieves the lowest source-balanced aggregate nMASE and nCRPS and leads seven of nine sources under each metric; source-specific exceptions reinforce the need for domain-representative evaluation for model selection. These findings also motivate improving domain alignment during pretraining, where real industrial data are often too scarce to close domain-specific gaps directly; we therefore investigate whether a domain's statistical structure can guide simulator design. In a case study on two offshore well-monitoring regimes, we improve a general simulator's coverage using an oscillator-augmented simulation pipeline. This lowers forecasting error in the target domain but reduces performance on the subset of GIFT-Eval with natively univariate targets. A 50/50 mixture of the general and augmented simulation recipes achieves the lowest error among the three training recipes for all four event-metric pairs in the case study while recovering most of the lost GIFT-Eval performance. Together, these results illustrate how domain-representative evaluation can guide model selection and the composition of simulated data while revealing a trade-off between specialization and generality.

Open-set test-time adaptation (TTA) updates models on new data in the presence of input shifts and unknown output classes. While recent methods have made progress on improving in-distribution (InD) accuracy for known classes, their ability to accurately detect out-of-distribution (OOD) unknown classes remains underexplored. We benchmark robust and open-set TTA methods (SAR, OSTTA, UniEnt, and SoTTA) on the standard corruption benchmarks of CIFAR-10-C at the small scale and ImageNet-C at the large scale. For CIFAR-10-C, we use OOD data from SVHN and CIFAR-100 in their respective corrupted forms of SVHN-C and CIFAR-100-C. For ImageNet-C, we use OOD data from ImageNet-O and Textures in their respective corrupted forms of ImageNet-O-C and Textures-C. ImageNet-O is nearer to ImageNet, as unknown but related object classes (like ''garlic bread'' vs. ''hot dog'' for food, or ''highway'' vs. ''dam'' for infrastructure), while Textures is farther from ImageNet, as non-object patterns (like ''cracked'' mud, ''porous'' sponge, ''veined'' leaves). We evaluate the accuracy and confidence of TTA methods for InD vs. OOD recognition on CIFAR-10-C and ImageNet-C. We verify the accuracy of each method's own OOD detection technique on CIFAR-10-C. We also evaluate on ImageNet-C and report both accuracy and standard OOD detection metrics. We further examine more realistic settings, in which the proportions and rates of OOD data can vary. To explore the trade-off between InD recognition and OOD rejection, we propose a new baseline that replaces softmax/multi-class output with sigmoid/multi-label output. Our analysis shows for the first time that current open-set TTA methods struggle to balance InD and OOD accuracy and that they only imperfectly filter OOD data for their own adaptation updates.

Background. Fully automatic analysis of myocardial perfusion MRI datasets enables rapid and objective reporting of stress/rest studies in patients with suspected ischemic heart disease. Developing deep learning techniques that can analyze multi-center datasets despite limited training data and variations in software and hardware is an ongoing challenge. Methods. Datasets from 3 medical centers acquired at 3T (n = 150 subjects) were included: an internal dataset (inD; n = 95) and two external datasets (exDs; n = 55) used for evaluating the robustness of the trained deep neural network (DNN) models against differences in pulse sequence (exD-1) and scanner vendor (exD-2). A subset of inD (n = 85) was used for training/validation of a pool of DNNs for segmentation, all using the same spatiotemporal U-Net architecture and hyperparameters but with different parameter initializations. We employed a space-time sliding-patch analysis approach that automatically yields a pixel-wise "uncertainty map" as a byproduct of the segmentation process. In our approach, a given test case is segmented by all members of the DNN pool and the resulting uncertainty maps are leveraged to automatically select the "best" one among the pool of solutions. Results. The proposed DAUGS analysis approach performed similarly to the established approach on the internal dataset (p = n.s.) whereas it significantly outperformed on the external datasets (p < 0.005 for exD-1 and exD-2). Moreover, the number of image series with "failed" segmentation was significantly lower for the proposed vs. the established approach (4.3% vs. 17.1%, p < 0.0005). Conclusions. The proposed DAUGS analysis approach has the potential to improve the robustness of deep learning methods for segmentation of multi-center stress perfusion datasets with variations in the choice of pulse sequence, site location or scanner vendor.

D-peptides combine protease resistance with high target specificity, but computational design of D-peptide binders remains immature. Mirror-Peptidizer introduced an in silico mirror-image screening pipeline using target reflection, backbone generation, and ProteinMPNN sequence design, but its raw ProteinMPNN negative log-likelihood (NLL) ranking was not validated against measured affinities, and only 4 of 9 tested MDM2 designs bound detectably. We introduce Mirror-Score, a calibrated, inference-only scoring framework for heterochiral D-peptide/L-protein complexes, and a public benchmark of 31 crystal complexes across four target families, including 18 with literature-verified affinities. Raw ProteinMPNN NLL is not a valid affinity ranker: its pooled Spearman correlation with affinity is 0.19, and correlations reverse between MDM2/CHIP (+0.62) and gp41 (-0.70). We therefore evaluate Boltz-2 mirror-space cofolding confidence. For the complete viral-entry family (7 structures representing 3 peptides), interface predicted local distance difference test (pLDDT) achieves structure-level leave-one-out Spearman rho = 0.90 (p = 0.006) and correctly orders all three peptides by affinity, whereas NLL fails (structure-level rho = 0.18). Because only three independent chemotypes are represented, this result indicates directional consistency rather than a statistically validated predictor. Cross-family calibration does not transfer at current sample sizes, supporting family-matched calibration as the practical deployment mode. We also specify a prospective design protocol for the antimicrobial-resistance targets LasR and LecB from Pseudomonas aeruginosa, including mirrored structures, ligand-derived hotspot maps, diffusion-model-ready inputs, and Mirror-Score ranking. Code, benchmark data, structures, and analysis scripts are openly available at https://github.com/Jiadalee/Mirror-Score.

The role of a Dungeon Master, or DM, in the game Dungeons & Dragons is to perform multiple tasks simultaneously. The DM must digest information about the game setting and monsters, synthesize scenes to present to other players, and respond to the players' interactions with the scene. Doing all of these tasks while maintaining consistency within the narrative and story world is no small feat of human cognition, making the task tiring and unapproachable to new players. Large language models (LLMs) like GPT-3 and ChatGPT have shown remarkable abilities to generate coherent natural language text. In this paper, we conduct a formative evaluation with DMs to establish the use cases of LLMs in D&D and tabletop gaming generally. We introduce CALYPSO, a system of LLM-powered interfaces that support DMs with information and inspiration specific to their own scenario. CALYPSO distills game context into bite-sized prose and helps brainstorm ideas without distracting the DM from the game. When given access to CALYPSO, DMs reported that it generated high-fidelity text suitable for direct presentation to players, and low-fidelity ideas that the DM could develop further while maintaining their creative agency. We see CALYPSO as exemplifying a paradigm of AI-augmented tools that provide synchronous creative assistance within established game worlds, and tabletop gaming more broadly.

Decentralized stochastic gradient descent (D-SGD) allows collaborative learning on massive devices simultaneously without the control of a central server. However, existing theories claim that decentralization invariably undermines generalization. In this paper, we challenge the conventional belief and present a completely new perspective for understanding decentralized learning. We prove that D-SGD implicitly minimizes the loss function of an average-direction Sharpness-aware minimization (SAM) algorithm under general non-convex non-beta-smooth settings. This surprising asymptotic equivalence reveals an intrinsic regularization-optimization trade-off and three advantages of decentralization: (1) there exists a free uncertainty evaluation mechanism in D-SGD to improve posterior estimation; (2) D-SGD exhibits a gradient smoothing effect; and (3) the sharpness regularization effect of D-SGD does not decrease as total batch size increases, which justifies the potential generalization benefit of D-SGD over centralized SGD (C-SGD) in large-batch scenarios.