Daily Papers

Labor market analysis relies on extracting insights from job advertisements, which provide valuable yet unstructured information on job titles and corresponding skill requirements. While state-of-the-art methods for skill extraction achieve strong performance, they depend on large language models (LLMs), which are computationally expensive and slow. In this paper, we propose ConTeXT-match, a novel contrastive learning approach with token-level attention that is well-suited for the extreme multi-label classification task of skill classification. ConTeXT-match significantly improves skill extraction efficiency and performance, achieving state-of-the-art results with a lightweight bi-encoder model. To support robust evaluation, we introduce Skill-XL, a new benchmark with exhaustive, sentence-level skill annotations that explicitly address the redundancy in the large label space. Finally, we present JobBERT V2, an improved job title normalization model that leverages extracted skills to produce high-quality job title representations. Experiments demonstrate that our models are efficient, accurate, and scalable, making them ideal for large-scale, real-time labor market analysis.

The labor market is a complex ecosystem comprising diverse, interconnected entities, such as industries, occupations, skills, and firms. Due to the lack of a systematic method to map these heterogeneous entities together, each entity has been analyzed in isolation or only through pairwise relationships, inhibiting comprehensive understanding of the whole ecosystem. Here, we introduce Labor Space, a vector-space embedding of heterogeneous labor market entities, derived through applying a large language model with fine-tuning. Labor Space exposes the complex relational fabric of various labor market constituents, facilitating coherent integrative analysis of industries, occupations, skills, and firms, while retaining type-specific clustering. We demonstrate its unprecedented analytical capacities, including positioning heterogeneous entities on an economic axes, such as `Manufacturing--Healthcare'. Furthermore, by allowing vector arithmetic of these entities, Labor Space enables the exploration of complex inter-unit relations, and subsequently the estimation of the ramifications of economic shocks on individual units and their ripple effect across the labor market. We posit that Labor Space provides policymakers and business leaders with a comprehensive unifying framework for labor market analysis and simulation, fostering more nuanced and effective strategic decision-making.

Online job ads serve as a valuable source of information for skill requirements, playing a crucial role in labor market analysis and e-recruitment processes. Since such ads are typically formatted in free text, natural language processing (NLP) technologies are required to automatically process them. We specifically focus on the task of detecting skills (mentioned literally, or implicitly described) and linking them to a large skill ontology, making it a challenging case of extreme multi-label classification (XMLC). Given that there is no sizable labeled (training) dataset are available for this specific XMLC task, we propose techniques to leverage general Large Language Models (LLMs). We describe a cost-effective approach to generate an accurate, fully synthetic labeled dataset for skill extraction, and present a contrastive learning strategy that proves effective in the task. Our results across three skill extraction benchmarks show a consistent increase of between 15 to 25 percentage points in R-Precision@5 compared to previously published results that relied solely on distant supervision through literal matches.

We investigate the potential implications of large language models (LLMs), such as Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPTs), on the U.S. labor market, focusing on the increased capabilities arising from LLM-powered software compared to LLMs on their own. Using a new rubric, we assess occupations based on their alignment with LLM capabilities, integrating both human expertise and GPT-4 classifications. Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. We do not make predictions about the development or adoption timeline of such LLMs. The projected effects span all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure to LLM capabilities and LLM-powered software. Significantly, these impacts are not restricted to industries with higher recent productivity growth. Our analysis suggests that, with access to an LLM, about 15% of all worker tasks in the US could be completed significantly faster at the same level of quality. When incorporating software and tooling built on top of LLMs, this share increases to between 47 and 56% of all tasks. This finding implies that LLM-powered software will have a substantial effect on scaling the economic impacts of the underlying models. We conclude that LLMs such as GPTs exhibit traits of general-purpose technologies, indicating that they could have considerable economic, social, and policy implications.

Data from online job postings are difficult to access and are not built in a standard or transparent manner. Data included in the standard taxonomy and occupational information database (O*NET) are updated infrequently and based on small survey samples. We adopt O*NET as a framework for building natural language processing tools that extract structured information from job postings. We publish the Job Ad Analysis Toolkit (JAAT), a collection of open-source tools built for this purpose, and demonstrate its reliability and accuracy in out-of-sample and LLM-as-a-Judge testing. We extract more than 10 billion data points from more than 155 million online job ads provided by the National Labor Exchange (NLx) Research Hub, including O*NET tasks, occupation codes, tools, and technologies, as well as wages, skills, industry, and more features. We describe the construction of a dataset of occupation, state, and industry level features aggregated by monthly active jobs from 2015 - 2025. We illustrate the potential for research and future uses in education and workforce development.

The capabilities of natural language models trained on large-scale data have increased immensely over the past few years. Open source libraries such as HuggingFace have made these models easily available and accessible. While prior research has identified biases in large language models, this paper considers biases contained in the most popular versions of these models when applied `out-of-the-box' for downstream tasks. We focus on generative language models as they are well-suited for extracting biases inherited from training data. Specifically, we conduct an in-depth analysis of GPT-2, which is the most downloaded text generation model on HuggingFace, with over half a million downloads per month. We assess biases related to occupational associations for different protected categories by intersecting gender with religion, sexuality, ethnicity, political affiliation, and continental name origin. Using a template-based data collection pipeline, we collect 396K sentence completions made by GPT-2 and find: (i) The machine-predicted jobs are less diverse and more stereotypical for women than for men, especially for intersections; (ii) Intersectional interactions are highly relevant for occupational associations, which we quantify by fitting 262 logistic models; (iii) For most occupations, GPT-2 reflects the skewed gender and ethnicity distribution found in US Labor Bureau data, and even pulls the societally-skewed distribution towards gender parity in cases where its predictions deviate from real labor market observations. This raises the normative question of what language models should learn - whether they should reflect or correct for existing inequalities.

Understanding labor market dynamics is essential for policymakers, employers, and job seekers. However, comprehensive datasets that capture real-world career trajectories are scarce. In this paper, we introduce JobHop, a large-scale public dataset derived from anonymized resumes provided by VDAB, the public employment service in Flanders, Belgium. Utilizing Large Language Models (LLMs), we process unstructured resume data to extract structured career information, which is then mapped to standardized ESCO occupation codes using a multi-label classification model. This results in a rich dataset of over 2.3 million work experiences, extracted from and grouped into more than 391,000 user resumes and mapped to standardized ESCO occupation codes, offering valuable insights into real-world occupational transitions. This dataset enables diverse applications, such as analyzing labor market mobility, job stability, and the effects of career breaks on occupational transitions. It also supports career path prediction and other data-driven decision-making processes. To illustrate its potential, we explore key dataset characteristics, including job distributions, career breaks, and job transitions, demonstrating its value for advancing labor market research.

The relationship between professional skills and higher education programs is modeled as a non-directed bipartite network with binary entries representing the links between 28 skills (as captured by the occupational information network, O*NET) and 258 graduate program summaries (as captured by commercial brochures of graduate programs in marketing with accreditation standards of the Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business). While descriptive analysis for skills suggests a qualitative lack of alignment between the job demands captured by O*NET, inferential analyses based on exponential random graph model estimates show that skills' popularity and homophily coexist with a systematic yet weak alignment to job demands for marketing managers.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

Motivated by equilibrium models of labor markets, we develop a formulation of causal strategic classification in which strategic agents can directly manipulate their outcomes. As an application, we compare employers that anticipate the strategic response of a labor force with employers that do not. We show through a combination of theory and experiment that employers with performatively optimal hiring policies improve employer reward, labor force skill level, and in some cases labor force equity. On the other hand, we demonstrate that performative employers harm labor force utility and fail to prevent discrimination in other cases.

We investigate the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption on skill requirements using 14 million online job vacancies from Chinese listed firms (2018-2022). Employing a novel Extreme Multi-Label Classification (XMLC) algorithm trained via contrastive learning and LLM-driven data augmentation, we map vacancy requirements to the ESCO framework. By benchmarking occupation-skill relationships against 2018 O*NET-ESCO mappings, we document a robust causal relationship between AI adoption and the expansion of skill portfolios. Our analysis identifies two distinct mechanisms. First, AI reduces information asymmetry in the labor market, enabling firms to specify current occupation-specific requirements with greater precision. Second, AI empowers firms to anticipate evolving labor market dynamics. We find that AI adoption significantly increases the demand for "forward-looking" skills--those absent from 2018 standards but subsequently codified in 2022 updates. This suggests that AI allows firms to lead, rather than follow, the formal evolution of occupational standards. Our findings highlight AI's dual role as both a stabilizer of current recruitment information and a catalyst for proactive adaptation to future skill shifts.

There is a strong association between the quality of the writing in a resume for new labor market entrants and whether those entrants are ultimately hired. We show that this relationship is, at least partially, causal: a field experiment in an online labor market was conducted with nearly half a million jobseekers in which a treated group received algorithmic writing assistance. Treated jobseekers experienced an 8% increase in the probability of getting hired. Contrary to concerns that the assistance is taking away a valuable signal, we find no evidence that employers were less satisfied. We present a model in which better writing is not a signal of ability but helps employers ascertain ability, which rationalizes our findings.

AI agents are increasingly developed and evaluated on benchmarks relevant to human work, yet it remains unclear how representative these benchmarking efforts are of the labor market as a whole. In this work, we systematically study the relationship between agent development efforts and the distribution of real-world human work by mapping benchmark instances to work domains and skills. We first analyze 43 benchmarks and 72,342 tasks, measuring their alignment with human employment and capital allocation across all 1,016 real-world occupations in the U.S. labor market. We reveal substantial mismatches between agent development that tends to be programming-centric, and the categories in which human labor and economic value are concentrated. Within work areas that agents currently target, we further characterize current agent utility by measuring their autonomy levels, providing practical guidance for agent interaction strategies across work scenarios. Building on these findings, we propose three measurable principles for designing benchmarks that better capture socially important and technically challenging forms of work: coverage, realism, and granular evaluation.

Newly-developed large language models (LLM) -- because of how they are trained and designed -- are implicit computational models of humans -- a homo silicus. These models can be used the same way economists use homo economicus: they can be given endowments, information, preferences, and so on and then their behavior can be explored in scenarios via simulation. I demonstrate this approach using OpenAI's GPT3 with experiments derived from Charness and Rabin (2002), Kahneman, Knetsch and Thaler (1986) and Samuelson and Zeckhauser (1988). The findings are qualitatively similar to the original results, but it is also trivially easy to try variations that offer fresh insights. Departing from the traditional laboratory paradigm, I also create a hiring scenario where an employer faces applicants that differ in experience and wage ask and then analyze how a minimum wage affects realized wages and the extent of labor-labor substitution.

Today's evolving labor markets rely increasingly on recommender systems for hiring, talent management, and workforce analytics, with natural language processing (NLP) capabilities at the core. Yet, research in this area remains highly fragmented. Studies employ divergent ontologies (ESCO, O*NET, national taxonomies), heterogeneous task formulations, and diverse model families, making cross-study comparison and reproducibility exceedingly difficult. General-purpose benchmarks lack coverage of work-specific tasks, and the inherent sensitivity of employment data further limits open evaluation. We present WorkRB (Work Research Benchmark), the first open-source, community-driven benchmark tailored to work-domain AI. WorkRB organizes 13 diverse tasks from 7 task groups as unified recommendation and NLP tasks, including job/skill recommendation, candidate recommendation, similar item recommendation, and skill extraction and normalization. WorkRB enables both monolingual and cross-lingual evaluation settings through dynamic loading of multilingual ontologies. Developed within a multi-stakeholder ecosystem of academia, industry, and public institutions, WorkRB has a modular design for seamless contributions and enables integration of proprietary tasks without disclosing sensitive data. WorkRB is available under the Apache 2.0 license at https://github.com/techwolf-ai/WorkRB.

There has been growing interest in utilizing occupational data mining and analysis. In today's job market, occupational data mining and analysis is growing in importance as it enables companies to predict employee turnover, model career trajectories, screen through resumes and perform other human resource tasks. A key requirement to facilitate these tasks is the need for an occupation-related dataset. However, most research use proprietary datasets or do not make their dataset publicly available, thus impeding development in this area. To solve this issue, we present the Industrial and Professional Occupation Dataset (IPOD), which comprises 192k job titles belonging to 56k LinkedIn users. In addition to making IPOD publicly available, we also: (i) manually annotate each job title with its associated level of seniority, domain of work and location; and (ii) provide embedding for job titles and discuss various use cases. This dataset is publicly available at https://github.com/junhua/ipod.

ArabJobs is a publicly available corpus of Arabic job advertisements collected from Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Comprising over 8,500 postings and more than 550,000 words, the dataset captures linguistic, regional, and socio-economic variation in the Arab labour market. We present analyses of gender representation and occupational structure, and highlight dialectal variation across ads, which offers opportunities for future research. We also demonstrate applications such as salary estimation and job category normalisation using large language models, alongside benchmark tasks for gender bias detection and profession classification. The findings show the utility of ArabJobs for fairness-aware Arabic NLP and labour market research. The dataset is publicly available on GitHub: https://github.com/drelhaj/ArabJobs.

We introduce GDPval, a benchmark evaluating AI model capabilities on real-world economically valuable tasks. GDPval covers the majority of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Work Activities for 44 occupations across the top 9 sectors contributing to U.S. GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Tasks are constructed from the representative work of industry professionals with an average of 14 years of experience. We find that frontier model performance on GDPval is improving roughly linearly over time, and that the current best frontier models are approaching industry experts in deliverable quality. We analyze the potential for frontier models, when paired with human oversight, to perform GDPval tasks cheaper and faster than unaided experts. We also demonstrate that increased reasoning effort, increased task context, and increased scaffolding improves model performance on GDPval. Finally, we open-source a gold subset of 220 tasks and provide a public automated grading service at evals.openai.com to facilitate future research in understanding real-world model capabilities.

Skill Extraction (SE) is an important and widely-studied task useful to gain insights into labor market dynamics. However, there is a lacuna of datasets and annotation guidelines; available datasets are few and contain crowd-sourced labels on the span-level or labels from a predefined skill inventory. To address this gap, we introduce SKILLSPAN, a novel SE dataset consisting of 14.5K sentences and over 12.5K annotated spans. We release its respective guidelines created over three different sources annotated for hard and soft skills by domain experts. We introduce a BERT baseline (Devlin et al., 2019). To improve upon this baseline, we experiment with language models that are optimized for long spans (Joshi et al., 2020; Beltagy et al., 2020), continuous pre-training on the job posting domain (Han and Eisenstein, 2019; Gururangan et al., 2020), and multi-task learning (Caruana, 1997). Our results show that the domain-adapted models significantly outperform their non-adapted counterparts, and single-task outperforms multi-task learning.

The labor market is changing rapidly, prompting increased interest in the automatic extraction of occupational skills from text. With the advent of English benchmark job description datasets, there is a need for systems that handle their diversity well. We tackle the complexity in occupational skill datasets tasks -- combining and leveraging multiple datasets for skill extraction, to identify rarely observed skills within a dataset, and overcoming the scarcity of skills across datasets. In particular, we investigate the retrieval-augmentation of language models, employing an external datastore for retrieving similar skills in a dataset-unifying manner. Our proposed method, Nearest Neighbor Occupational Skill Extraction (NNOSE) effectively leverages multiple datasets by retrieving neighboring skills from other datasets in the datastore. This improves skill extraction without additional fine-tuning. Crucially, we observe a performance gain in predicting infrequent patterns, with substantial gains of up to 30\% span-F1 in cross-dataset settings.

This study examines the relationship between income inequality, gender, and school completion rates in Malaysia using machine learning techniques. The dataset utilized is from the Malaysia's Public Sector Open Data Portal, covering the period 2016-2022. The analysis employs various machine learning techniques, including K-means clustering, ARIMA modeling, Random Forest regression, and Prophet for time series forecasting. These models are used to identify patterns, trends, and anomalies in the data, and to predict future school completion rates. Key findings reveal significant disparities in school completion rates across states, genders, and income levels. The analysis also identifies clusters of states with similar completion rates, suggesting potential regional factors influencing educational outcomes. Furthermore, time series forecasting models accurately predict future completion rates, highlighting the importance of ongoing monitoring and intervention strategies. The study concludes with recommendations for policymakers and educators to address the observed disparities and improve school completion rates in Malaysia. These recommendations include targeted interventions for specific states and demographic groups, investment in early childhood education, and addressing the impact of income inequality on educational opportunities. The findings of this study contribute to the understanding of the factors influencing school completion in Malaysia and provide valuable insights for policymakers and educators to develop effective strategies to improve educational outcomes.

In a rapidly evolving job market, skill demand forecasting is crucial as it enables policymakers and businesses to anticipate and adapt to changes, ensuring that workforce skills align with market needs, thereby enhancing productivity and competitiveness. Additionally, by identifying emerging skill requirements, it directs individuals towards relevant training and education opportunities, promoting continuous self-learning and development. However, the absence of comprehensive datasets presents a significant challenge, impeding research and the advancement of this field. To bridge this gap, we present Job-SDF, a dataset designed to train and benchmark job-skill demand forecasting models. Based on 10.35 million public job advertisements collected from major online recruitment platforms in China between 2021 and 2023, this dataset encompasses monthly recruitment demand for 2,324 types of skills across 521 companies. Our dataset uniquely enables evaluating skill demand forecasting models at various granularities, including occupation, company, and regional levels. We benchmark a range of models on this dataset, evaluating their performance in standard scenarios, in predictions focused on lower value ranges, and in the presence of structural breaks, providing new insights for further research. Our code and dataset are publicly accessible via the https://github.com/Job-SDF/benchmark.

A natural intuition about the economics of AI agents is that, because agents can be replicated at very low marginal cost, agent labor may be supplied highly elastically, placing downward pressure on cognitive-labor wages when it closely substitutes for human labor. We argue this framing is wrong in mechanism but partially correct in conclusion, and that the correction matters for both theory and policy. Agents are not labor; they are a production technology that converts compute capital K_c into effective units of cognitive labor L_A. Once this is recognized, the elastic-supply margin that anchors the equilibrium wage migrates from the labor market to the compute capital market. Building on the classic factor-pricing framework mankiw2020, we derive a Compute-Anchored Wage (CAW) bound stating that, on tasks where human and agent-produced cognitive labor are substitutes, the competitive human wage is bounded above by λcdot k cdot r_c, where r_c is the rental rate of compute capital, k is the compute intensity of one effective agent-produced cognitive labor unit, and λ is the relative human-to-agent productivity. We generalize the result through constant elasticity of substitution (CES) aggregation, separate substitutable from complementary tasks, and discuss factor-share consequences. The conclusion is concise: the price-setter for cognitive labor is no longer the labor market.

Given the rapid adoption of generative AI and its potential to impact a wide range of tasks, understanding the effects of AI on the economy is one of society's most important questions. In this work, we take a step toward that goal by analyzing the work activities people do with AI, how successfully and broadly those activities are done, and combine that with data on what occupations do those activities. We analyze a dataset of 200k anonymized and privacy-scrubbed conversations between users and Microsoft Bing Copilot, a publicly available generative AI system. We find the most common work activities people seek AI assistance for involve gathering information and writing, while the most common activities that AI itself is performing are providing information and assistance, writing, teaching, and advising. Combining these activity classifications with measurements of task success and scope of impact, we compute an AI applicability score for each occupation. We find the highest AI applicability scores for knowledge work occupation groups such as computer and mathematical, and office and administrative support, as well as occupations such as sales whose work activities involve providing and communicating information. Additionally, we characterize the types of work activities performed most successfully, how wage and education correlate with AI applicability, and how real-world usage compares to predictions of occupational AI impact.

We consider identification of average treatment effects on the treated (ATT) within the difference-in-differences (DiD) framework in the presence of endogenous sample selection. First, we establish that the usual DiD estimand fails to recover meaningful treatment effects, even if selection and treatment assignment are independent. Next, we partially identify the ATT for individuals who are always observed post-treatment regardless of their treatment status, and derive bounds on this parameter under different sets of assumptions about the relationship between sample selection and treatment assignment. Extensions to the repeated cross-section and two-by-two comparisons in the staggered adoption case are explored. Furthermore, we provide identification results for the ATT of three additional empirically relevant latent groups by incorporating outcome mean dominance assumptions which have intuitive appeal in applications. Finally, two empirical illustrations demonstrate the approach's usefulness by revisiting (i) the effect of a job training program on earnings(Calonico & Smith, 2017) and (ii) the effect of a working-from-home policy on employee performance (Bloom, Liang, Roberts, & Ying, 2015).

We introduce JobBERT-V3, a contrastive learning-based model for cross-lingual job title matching. Building on the state-of-the-art monolingual JobBERT-V2, our approach extends support to English, German, Spanish, and Chinese by leveraging synthetic translations and a balanced multilingual dataset of over 21 million job titles. The model retains the efficiency-focused architecture of its predecessor while enabling robust alignment across languages without requiring task-specific supervision. Extensive evaluations on the TalentCLEF 2025 benchmark demonstrate that JobBERT-V3 outperforms strong multilingual baselines and achieves consistent performance across both monolingual and cross-lingual settings. While not the primary focus, we also show that the model can be effectively used to rank relevant skills for a given job title, demonstrating its broader applicability in multilingual labor market intelligence. The model is publicly available: https://huggingface.co/TechWolf/JobBERT-v3.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to inheriting and amplifying societal biases embedded within their training data, potentially reinforcing harmful stereotypes related to gender, occupation, and other sensitive categories. This issue becomes particularly problematic as biased LLMs can have far-reaching consequences, leading to unfair practices and exacerbating social inequalities across various domains, such as recruitment, online content moderation, or even the criminal justice system. Although prior research has focused on detecting bias in LLMs using specialized datasets designed to highlight intrinsic biases, there has been a notable lack of investigation into how these findings correlate with authoritative datasets, such as those from the U.S. National Bureau of Labor Statistics (NBLS). To address this gap, we conduct empirical research that evaluates LLMs in a ``bias-out-of-the-box" setting, analyzing how the generated outputs compare with the distributions found in NBLS data. Furthermore, we propose a straightforward yet effective debiasing mechanism that directly incorporates NBLS instances to mitigate bias within LLMs. Our study spans seven different LLMs, including instructable, base, and mixture-of-expert models, and reveals significant levels of bias that are often overlooked by existing bias detection techniques. Importantly, our debiasing method, which does not rely on external datasets, demonstrates a substantial reduction in bias scores, highlighting the efficacy of our approach in creating fairer and more reliable LLMs.

International trade policies have recently garnered attention for limiting cross-border exchange of essential goods (e.g. steel, aluminum, soybeans, and beef). Since trade critically affects employment and wages, predicting future patterns of trade is a high-priority for policy makers around the world. While traditional economic models aim to be reliable predictors, we consider the possibility that Machine Learning (ML) techniques allow for better predictions to inform policy decisions. Open-government data provide the fuel to power the algorithms that can explain and forecast trade flows to inform policies. Data collected in this article describe international trade transactions and commonly associated economic factors. Machine learning (ML) models deployed include: ARIMA, GBoosting, XGBoosting, and LightGBM for predicting future trade patterns, and K-Means clustering of countries according to economic factors. Unlike short-term and subjective (straight-line) projections and medium-term (aggre-gated) projections, ML methods provide a range of data-driven and interpretable projections for individual commodities. Models, their results, and policies are introduced and evaluated for prediction quality.

This research employs quantitative techniques interpreted through relevant economic theories to analyze a proposed U.S. "Discounted Reciprocal Tariff" structure. Statistical modeling (linear regression) quantifies the policy's consistent 'discounted reciprocity' pattern, which is interpreted using a Game Theory perspective on strategic interaction. Machine learning (K-Means clustering) identifies distinct country typologies based on tariff exposure and Economic Complexity Index (ECI), linking the policy to Economic Complexity theory. The study's primary application focuses on the major coffee exporting sector, utilizing simulation modeling grounded in principles of demand elasticity and substitution to project potential trade flow impacts. Specifically, for coffee, this simulation demonstrates how the proposed tariff differentials can induce significant substitution effects, projecting a potential shift in U.S. import demand away from high-tariff origins toward lower-tariff competitors. This disruption, stemming from the tariffs impacting exporting countries, is projected to ultimately increase coffee prices for consumers in the United States. Findings throughout are contextualized within Political Economy considerations. Overall, the study demonstrates how integrating regression, clustering, and simulation with economic theory exemplified through the coffee sector analysis provides a robust framework for assessing the potential systemic impacts, including consumer price effects, of strategic trade policies.

The rapid rise of compound AI systems (a.k.a., AI agents) is reshaping the labor market, raising concerns about job displacement, diminished human agency, and overreliance on automation. Yet, we lack a systematic understanding of the evolving landscape. In this paper, we address this gap by introducing a novel auditing framework to assess which occupational tasks workers want AI agents to automate or augment, and how those desires align with the current technological capabilities. Our framework features an audio-enhanced mini-interview to capture nuanced worker desires and introduces the Human Agency Scale (HAS) as a shared language to quantify the preferred level of human involvement. Using this framework, we construct the WORKBank database, building on the U.S. Department of Labor's O*NET database, to capture preferences from 1,500 domain workers and capability assessments from AI experts across over 844 tasks spanning 104 occupations. Jointly considering the desire and technological capability divides tasks in WORKBank into four zones: Automation "Green Light" Zone, Automation "Red Light" Zone, R&D Opportunity Zone, Low Priority Zone. This highlights critical mismatches and opportunities for AI agent development. Moving beyond a simple automate-or-not dichotomy, our results reveal diverse HAS profiles across occupations, reflecting heterogeneous expectations for human involvement. Moreover, our study offers early signals of how AI agent integration may reshape the core human competencies, shifting from information-focused skills to interpersonal ones. These findings underscore the importance of aligning AI agent development with human desires and preparing workers for evolving workplace dynamics.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

One of the challenging research problems in the domain of time series analysis and forecasting is making efficient and robust prediction of stock market prices. With rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms and with the availability of extremely fast computing platforms, it has now become possible to effectively extract, store, process and analyze high volume stock market time series data. Complex algorithms for forecasting are now available for speedy execution over parallel architecture leading to fairly accurate results. In this paper, we have used time series data of the two sectors of the Indian economy: Consumer Durables sector and the Small Cap sector for the period January 2010 to December 2015 and proposed a decomposition approach for better understanding of the behavior of each of the time series. Our contention is that various sectors reveal different time series patterns and understanding them is essential for portfolio formation. Further, based on this structural analysis, we have also proposed several robust forecasting techniques and analyzed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. Extensive results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our propositions.

Which jobs can AI learn to do? We examine this for every occupation in the US economy. Existing indices measure the overlap between AI capabilities and occupational tasks rather than which tasks AI systems can learn to perform, and as a result misclassify occupations where the gap between present capability and learnability is large. Reinforcement learning in post-training, now the dominant paradigm at the frontier, is structured around task completion and maps more directly onto the task-based architecture of occupational classifications than prior approaches. Using LLM annotators guided by a rubric developed with RL experts and validated against confirmed deployment cases, we score all 17,951 ONET tasks for training feasibility and aggregate to the occupation level, producing an RL Feasibility Index. The index diverges sharply from existing AI exposure measures for specific occupation groups: power plant operators, railroad conductors, and aircraft cargo handling supervisors score high on RL feasibility but low on general AI exposure, while creative and interpersonal roles (musicians, physicians, natural sciences managers) show the reverse. These divergences carry direct implications for policy interventions.

With the rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms for statistical analysis of time series data, the research community has started spending considerable effort in technical analysis of such data. Forecasting is also an area which has witnessed a paradigm shift in its approach. In this work, we have used the time series of the index values of the Auto sector in India during January 2010 to December 2015 for a deeper understanding of the behavior of its three constituent components, e.g., the Trend, the Seasonal component, and the Random component. Based on this structural analysis, we have also designed three approaches for forecasting and also computed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. The results clearly demonstrate the accuracy of our decomposition results and efficiency of our forecasting techniques, even in presence of a dominant Random component in the time series.

We interact with computers on an everyday basis, be it in everyday life or work, and many aspects of work can be done entirely with access to a computer and the Internet. At the same time, thanks to improvements in large language models (LLMs), there has also been a rapid development in AI agents that interact with and affect change in their surrounding environments. But how performant are AI agents at helping to accelerate or even autonomously perform work-related tasks? The answer to this question has important implications for both industry looking to adopt AI into their workflows, and for economic policy to understand the effects that adoption of AI may have on the labor market. To measure the progress of these LLM agents' performance on performing real-world professional tasks, in this paper, we introduce TheAgentCompany, an extensible benchmark for evaluating AI agents that interact with the world in similar ways to those of a digital worker: by browsing the Web, writing code, running programs, and communicating with other coworkers. We build a self-contained environment with internal web sites and data that mimics a small software company environment, and create a variety of tasks that may be performed by workers in such a company. We test baseline agents powered by both closed API-based and open-weights language models (LMs), and find that with the most competitive agent, 24% of the tasks can be completed autonomously. This paints a nuanced picture on task automation with LM agents -- in a setting simulating a real workplace, a good portion of simpler tasks could be solved autonomously, but more difficult long-horizon tasks are still beyond the reach of current systems.

Despite widespread speculation about artificial intelligence's impact on the future of work, we lack systematic empirical evidence about how these systems are actually being used for different tasks. Here, we present a novel framework for measuring AI usage patterns across the economy. We leverage a recent privacy-preserving system to analyze over four million Claude.ai conversations through the lens of tasks and occupations in the U.S. Department of Labor's O*NET Database. Our analysis reveals that AI usage primarily concentrates in software development and writing tasks, which together account for nearly half of all total usage. However, usage of AI extends more broadly across the economy, with approximately 36% of occupations using AI for at least a quarter of their associated tasks. We also analyze how AI is being used for tasks, finding 57% of usage suggests augmentation of human capabilities (e.g., learning or iterating on an output) while 43% suggests automation (e.g., fulfilling a request with minimal human involvement). While our data and methods face important limitations and only paint a picture of AI usage on a single platform, they provide an automated, granular approach for tracking AI's evolving role in the economy and identifying leading indicators of future impact as these technologies continue to advance.

This paper examines the profound challenges that transformative advances in AI towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will pose for economists and economic policymakers. I examine how the Age of AI will revolutionize the basic structure of our economies by diminishing the role of labor, leading to unprecedented productivity gains but raising concerns about job disruption, income distribution, and the value of education and human capital. I explore what roles may remain for labor post-AGI, and which production factors will grow in importance. The paper then identifies eight key challenges for economic policy in the Age of AI: (1) inequality and income distribution, (2) education and skill development, (3) social and political stability, (4) macroeconomic policy, (5) antitrust and market regulation, (6) intellectual property, (7) environmental implications, and (8) global AI governance. It concludes by emphasizing how economists can contribute to a better understanding of these challenges.

Analysis and prediction of stock market time series data has attracted considerable interest from the research community over the last decade. Rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms for statistical analysis of time series data, and availability of high-performance hardware has made it possible to process and analyze high volume stock market time series data effectively, in real-time. Among many other important characteristics and behavior of such data, forecasting is an area which has witnessed considerable focus. In this work, we have used time series of the index values of the Auto sector in India during January 2010 to December 2015 for a deeper understanding of the behavior of its three constituent components, e.g., the trend, the seasonal component, and the random component. Based on this structural analysis, we have also designed five approaches for forecasting and also computed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. Extensive results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed decomposition approaches of time series and the efficiency of our forecasting techniques, even in presence of a random component and a sharply changing trend component in the time-series.

This study presents an analytical approach to sector rotation, leveraging both factor models and fundamental metrics. We initiate with a systematic classification of sectors, followed by an empirical investigation into their returns. Through factor analysis, the paper underscores the significance of momentum and short-term reversion in dictating sectoral shifts. A subsequent in-depth fundamental analysis evaluates metrics such as PE, PB, EV-to-EBITDA, Dividend Yield, among others. Our primary contribution lies in developing a predictive framework based on these fundamental indicators. The constructed models, post rigorous training, exhibit noteworthy predictive capabilities. The findings furnish a nuanced understanding of sector rotation strategies, with implications for asset management and portfolio construction in the financial domain.

AIs have made rapid progress on research-oriented benchmarks of knowledge and reasoning, but it remains unclear how these gains translate into economic value and automation. To measure this, we introduce the Remote Labor Index (RLI), a broadly multi-sector benchmark comprising real-world, economically valuable projects designed to evaluate end-to-end agent performance in practical settings. AI agents perform near the floor on RLI, with the highest-performing agent achieving an automation rate of 2.5%. These results help ground discussions of AI automation in empirical evidence, setting a common basis for tracking AI impacts and enabling stakeholders to proactively navigate AI-driven labor automation.

The increasing number of benchmarks for Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks in the computational job market domain highlights the demand for methods that can handle job-related tasks such as skill extraction, skill classification, job title classification, and de-identification. While some approaches have been developed that are specific to the job market domain, there is a lack of generalized, multilingual models and benchmarks for these tasks. In this study, we introduce a language model called ESCOXLM-R, based on XLM-R, which uses domain-adaptive pre-training on the European Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations (ESCO) taxonomy, covering 27 languages. The pre-training objectives for ESCOXLM-R include dynamic masked language modeling and a novel additional objective for inducing multilingual taxonomical ESCO relations. We comprehensively evaluate the performance of ESCOXLM-R on 6 sequence labeling and 3 classification tasks in 4 languages and find that it achieves state-of-the-art results on 6 out of 9 datasets. Our analysis reveals that ESCOXLM-R performs better on short spans and outperforms XLM-R on entity-level and surface-level span-F1, likely due to ESCO containing short skill and occupation titles, and encoding information on the entity-level.

The statistical analysis of large scale legal corpus can provide valuable legal insights. For such analysis one needs to (1) select a subset of the corpus using document retrieval tools, (2) structuralize text using information extraction (IE) systems, and (3) visualize the data for the statistical analysis. Each process demands either specialized tools or programming skills whereas no comprehensive unified "no-code" tools have been available. Especially for IE, if the target information is not predefined in the ontology of the IE system, one needs to build their own system. Here we provide NESTLE, a no code tool for large-scale statistical analysis of legal corpus. With NESTLE, users can search target documents, extract information, and visualize the structured data all via the chat interface with accompanying auxiliary GUI for the fine-level control. NESTLE consists of three main components: a search engine, an end-to-end IE system, and a Large Language Model (LLM) that glues the whole components together and provides the chat interface. Powered by LLM and the end-to-end IE system, NESTLE can extract any type of information that has not been predefined in the IE system opening up the possibility of unlimited customizable statistical analysis of the corpus without writing a single line of code. The use of the custom end-to-end IE system also enables faster and low-cost IE on large scale corpus. We validate our system on 15 Korean precedent IE tasks and 3 legal text classification tasks from LEXGLUE. The comprehensive experiments reveal NESTLE can achieve GPT-4 comparable performance by training the internal IE module with 4 human-labeled, and 192 LLM-labeled examples. The detailed analysis provides the insight on the trade-off between accuracy, time, and cost in building such system.

Socioeconomic bias in society exacerbates disparities, influencing access to opportunities and resources based on individuals' economic and social backgrounds. This pervasive issue perpetuates systemic inequalities, hindering the pursuit of inclusive progress as a society. In this paper, we investigate the presence of socioeconomic bias, if any, in large language models. To this end, we introduce a novel dataset SilverSpoon, consisting of 3000 samples that illustrate hypothetical scenarios that involve underprivileged people performing ethically ambiguous actions due to their circumstances, and ask whether the action is ethically justified. Further, this dataset has a dual-labeling scheme and has been annotated by people belonging to both ends of the socioeconomic spectrum. Using SilverSpoon, we evaluate the degree of socioeconomic bias expressed in large language models and the variation of this degree as a function of model size. We also perform qualitative analysis to analyze the nature of this bias. Our analysis reveals that while humans disagree on which situations require empathy toward the underprivileged, most large language models are unable to empathize with the socioeconomically underprivileged regardless of the situation. To foster further research in this domain, we make SilverSpoon and our evaluation harness publicly available.