Daily Papers

Accurate time series forecasting underpins decision-making in many domains, yetconventional ML development often faces data scarcity, distribution shift, anddiminishing returns from manual iteration. We propose Self-Evolving Agent forTime Series Algorithms (SEATS), a framework that autonomously generates, val-idates, and optimizes forecasting algorithm code through an iterative self-evolutionloop. Our design combines three mechanisms: (1) Metric-Advantage MCTS(MA-MCTS), which replaces fixed rewards with a statistically normalized advan-tage score for search guidance, (2) code review with running prompt refinement,so every successfully executed solution is reviewed and the running prompt encodescorrective patterns for later iterations, and (3) global steerable reasoning, whichcompares each evaluated node to global best- and worst-performing solutions forcross-trajectory transfer. A MAP-Elites archive maintains architectural diversity.Across four datasets and two metrics, SEATS wins seven of eight comparisonsagainst strong baselines TimeMixer, Timer, and SEMixer

Step-level reward models (SRMs) can significantly enhance mathematical reasoning performance through process supervision or step-level preference alignment based on reinforcement learning. The performance of SRMs is pivotal, as they serve as critical guidelines, ensuring that each step in the reasoning process is aligned with desired outcomes. Recently, AlphaZero-like methods, where Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is employed for automatic step-level preference annotation, have proven particularly effective. However, the precise mechanisms behind the success of SRMs remain largely unexplored. To address this gap, this study delves into the counterintuitive aspects of SRMs, particularly focusing on MCTS-based approaches. Our findings reveal that the removal of natural language descriptions of thought processes has minimal impact on the efficacy of SRMs. Furthermore, we demonstrate that SRMs are adept at assessing the complex logical coherence present in mathematical language while having difficulty in natural language. These insights provide a nuanced understanding of the core elements that drive effective step-level reward modeling in mathematical reasoning. By shedding light on these mechanisms, this study offers valuable guidance for developing more efficient and streamlined SRMs, which can be achieved by focusing on the crucial parts of mathematical reasoning.

Visual language models (VLMs) have demonstrated strong performance across diverse multimodal reasoning tasks but still face challenges such as hallucinations, resulting in incorrect reasoning outcomes. Inspired by recent research on external feedback mechanisms in large language models (LLMs), we propose a multimodal actor-critic framework to enhance VLM reasoning capabilities. Specifically, the actor model generates step-by-step reasoning paths based on image and text inputs, while the critic model evaluates these reasoning paths and provides corrective feedback. The actor model iteratively refines its reasoning based on the feedback until the reasoning outcome is deemed satisfactory by the critic model. To reduce reliance on costly manual annotations, we introduce an automated method for constructing multimodal critique datasets. By leveraging Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), we systematically guide the actor model to explore diverse reasoning paths. To obtain critique data for correcting erroneous reasoning steps, we prompt an annotator model to compare pairs of reasoning paths diverging from a shared ancestor node - one leading to a correct conclusion and the other to an incorrect one. This approach enables us to construct the MMC (MCTS-based Multimodal Critique) dataset, upon which we further develop a comprehensive training and inference pipeline. Extensive experiments conducted on several public benchmark datasets and mainstream VLMs demonstrate that our approach significantly improves the performance of VLM on complex multimodal reasoning tasks, underscoring its effectiveness and wide applicability.

LLM-based autonomous agents often fail to execute complex web tasks that require dynamic interaction due to the inherent uncertainty and complexity of these environments. Existing LLM-based web agents typically rely on rigid, expert-designed policies specific to certain states and actions, which lack the flexibility and generalizability needed to adapt to unseen tasks. In contrast, humans excel by exploring unknowns, continuously adapting strategies, and resolving ambiguities through exploration. To emulate human-like adaptability, web agents need strategic exploration and complex decision-making. Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is well-suited for this, but classical MCTS struggles with vast action spaces, unpredictable state transitions, and incomplete information in web tasks. In light of this, we develop WebPilot, a multi-agent system with a dual optimization strategy that improves MCTS to better handle complex web environments. Specifically, the Global Optimization phase involves generating a high-level plan by breaking down tasks into manageable subtasks and continuously refining this plan, thereby focusing the search process and mitigating the challenges posed by vast action spaces in classical MCTS. Subsequently, the Local Optimization phase executes each subtask using a tailored MCTS designed for complex environments, effectively addressing uncertainties and managing incomplete information. Experimental results on WebArena and MiniWoB++ demonstrate the effectiveness of WebPilot. Notably, on WebArena, WebPilot achieves SOTA performance with GPT-4, achieving a 93% relative increase in success rate over the concurrent tree search-based method. WebPilot marks a significant advancement in general autonomous agent capabilities, paving the way for more advanced and reliable decision-making in practical environments.

Scientific LLM agents have shown promise in literature reasoning, tool use, and experiment planning, but it remains unclear whether they can autonomously improve large, tightly coupled scientific machine-learning systems through executable code changes and computationally expensive validation. We study this question in protein folding, where progress requires coordinated architectural modifications, multi-objective evaluation, and domain-aware interpretation. We present AgentFold, a multi-agent framework that formulates folding-model development as a closed-loop search over executable code variants. Starting from ESMFold, AgentFold proposes hypotheses, implements and debugs code-level modifications, evaluates model variants, analyzes experimental outcomes, and stores both successful and failed interventions in structured memory. An MCTS-style policy allocates computational resources across high-scoring search branches. On an engineering-scale protein-folding codebase comprising more than 2,000 lines of code, AgentFold explores approximately 80 model variants using approximately 5,000 GPU-hours and 170 million LLM tokens. Under a matched computational budget, AgentFold improves the best lDDT by 7.5% over independent Codex proposals and outperforms a random-search control. Beyond model improvement, the resulting intervention traces reveal recurring empirical design patterns: stable gains tend to arise from early, soft, learnable priors and gated refinement, whereas direct geometric perturbations and geometry-conditioned feedback often destabilize training. The code and experimental resources are publicly available at https://github.com/lmqfly/AgentFold.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized decision-making by breaking down complex problems into more manageable language sequences referred to as ``thoughts''. An effective thought design should consider three key perspectives: performance, efficiency, and flexibility. However, existing thought can at most exhibit two of these attributes. To address these limitations, we introduce a novel thought prompting approach called ``Everything of Thoughts'' (XoT) to defy the law of ``Penrose triangle of existing thought paradigms. XoT leverages pretrained reinforcement learning and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to incorporate external domain knowledge into thoughts, thereby enhancing LLMs' capabilities and enabling them to generalize to unseen problems efficiently. Through the utilization of the MCTS-LLM collaborative thought revision framework, this approach autonomously produces high-quality comprehensive cognitive mappings with minimal LLM interactions. Additionally, XoT empowers LLMs to engage in unconstrained thinking, allowing for flexible cognitive mappings for problems with multiple solutions.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has proven effective in enhancing the reasoning of large language models (LLMs). Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)-based extensions improve upon vanilla RLVR (e.g., GRPO) by providing tree-based reasoning rollouts that enable fine-grained and segment-level credit assignment. However, existing methods still suffer from limited exploration diversity and inefficient reasoning. To address the above challenges, we propose reinforced efficient reasoning via semantically diverse explorations, i.e., ROSE, for LLMs. To encourage more diverse reasoning exploration, our method incorporates a semantic-entropy-based branching strategy and an varepsilon-exploration mechanism. The former operates on already sampled reasoning rollouts to capture semantic uncertainty and select branching points with high semantic divergence to generate new successive reasoning paths, whereas the latter stochastically initiates reasoning rollouts from the root, preventing the search process from becoming overly local. To improve efficiency, we design a length-aware segment-level advantage estimator that rewards concise and correct reasoning while penalizing unnecessarily long reasoning chains. Extensive experiments on various mathematical reasoning benchmarks with Qwen and Llama models validate the effectiveness and efficiency of ROSE. Codes are available at https://github.com/ZiqiZhao1/ROSE-rl.

This paper introduces rStar, a self-play mutual reasoning approach that significantly improves reasoning capabilities of small language models (SLMs) without fine-tuning or superior models. rStar decouples reasoning into a self-play mutual generation-discrimination process. First, a target SLM augments the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) with a rich set of human-like reasoning actions to construct higher quality reasoning trajectories. Next, another SLM, with capabilities similar to the target SLM, acts as a discriminator to verify each trajectory generated by the target SLM. The mutually agreed reasoning trajectories are considered mutual consistent, thus are more likely to be correct. Extensive experiments across five SLMs demonstrate rStar can effectively solve diverse reasoning problems, including GSM8K, GSM-Hard, MATH, SVAMP, and StrategyQA. Remarkably, rStar boosts GSM8K accuracy from 12.51% to 63.91% for LLaMA2-7B, from 36.46% to 81.88% for Mistral-7B, from 74.53% to 91.13% for LLaMA3-8B-Instruct. Code will be available at https://github.com/zhentingqi/rStar.

Despite deep learning's success in chemistry, its impact is hindered by a lack of interpretability and an inability to resolve activity cliffs, where minor structural nuances trigger drastic property shifts. Current representation learning, bound by the similarity principle, often fails to capture these structural-activity discontinuities. To address this, we introduce MolEvolve, an evolutionary framework that reformulates molecular discovery as an autonomous, look-ahead planning problem. Unlike traditional methods that depend on human-engineered features or rigid prior knowledge, MolEvolve leverages a Large Language Model (LLM) to actively explore and evolve a library of executable chemical symbolic operations. By utilizing the LLM to cold start and an Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) engine for test-time planning with external tools (e.g. RDKit), the system self-discovers optimal trajectories autonomously. This process evolves transparent reasoning chains that translate complex structural transformations into actionable, human-readable chemical insights. Experimental results demonstrate that MolEvolve's autonomous search not only evolves transparent, human-readable chemical insights, but also outperforms baselines in both property prediction and molecule optimization tasks.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have empowered autonomous web agents to execute natural language instructions directly on real-world webpages. However, existing agents often struggle with complex tasks involving dynamic interactions and long-horizon execution due to rigid planning strategies and hallucination-prone reasoning. To address these limitations, we propose WebUncertainty, a novel autonomous agent framework designed to tackle dual-level uncertainty in planning and reasoning. Specifically, we design a Task Uncertainty-Driven Adaptive Planning Mechanism that adaptively selects planning modes to navigate unknown environments. Furthermore, we introduce an Action Uncertainty-Driven Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) Reasoning Mechanism. This mechanism incorporates the Confidence-induced Action Uncertainty (ConActU) strategy to quantify both aleatoric uncertainty (AU) and epistemic uncertainty (EU), thereby optimizing the search process and guiding robust decision-making. Experimental results on the WebArena and WebVoyager benchmarks demonstrate that WebUncertainty achieves superior performance compared to state-of-the-art baselines.