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Sep 4

ENC-Bench: A Benchmark for Evaluating Multimodal Large Language Models in Electronic Navigational Chart Understanding

Electronic Navigational Charts (ENCs) are the safety-critical backbone of modern maritime navigation, yet it remains unclear whether multimodal large language models (MLLMs) can reliably interpret them. Unlike natural images or conventional charts, ENCs encode regulations, bathymetry, and route constraints via standardized vector symbols, scale-dependent rendering, and precise geometric structure -- requiring specialized maritime expertise for interpretation. We introduce ENC-Bench, the first benchmark dedicated to professional ENC understanding. ENC-Bench contains 20,490 expert-validated samples from 840 authentic National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ENCs, organized into a three-level hierarchy: Perception (symbol and feature recognition), Spatial Reasoning (coordinate localization, bearing, distance), and Maritime Decision-Making (route legality, safety assessment, emergency planning under multiple constraints). All samples are generated from raw S-57 data through a calibrated vector-to-image pipeline with automated consistency checks and expert review. We evaluate 10 state-of-the-art MLLMs such as GPT-4o, Gemini 2.5, Qwen3-VL, InternVL-3, and GLM-4.5V, under a unified zero-shot protocol. The best model achieves only 47.88% accuracy, with systematic challenges in symbolic grounding, spatial computation, multi-constraint reasoning, and robustness to lighting and scale variations. By establishing the first rigorous ENC benchmark, we open a new research frontier at the intersection of specialized symbolic reasoning and safety-critical AI, providing essential infrastructure for advancing MLLMs toward professional maritime applications.

  • 8 authors
·
Mar 23

A Guide to Image and Video based Small Object Detection using Deep Learning : Case Study of Maritime Surveillance

Small object detection (SOD) in optical images and videos is a challenging problem that even state-of-the-art generic object detection methods fail to accurately localize and identify such objects. Typically, small objects appear in real-world due to large camera-object distance. Because small objects occupy only a small area in the input image (e.g., less than 10%), the information extracted from such a small area is not always rich enough to support decision making. Multidisciplinary strategies are being developed by researchers working at the interface of deep learning and computer vision to enhance the performance of SOD deep learning based methods. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive review of over 160 research papers published between 2017 and 2022 in order to survey this growing subject. This paper summarizes the existing literature and provide a taxonomy that illustrates the broad picture of current research. We investigate how to improve the performance of small object detection in maritime environments, where increasing performance is critical. By establishing a connection between generic and maritime SOD research, future directions have been identified. In addition, the popular datasets that have been used for SOD for generic and maritime applications are discussed, and also well-known evaluation metrics for the state-of-the-art methods on some of the datasets are provided.

  • 6 authors
·
Jul 26, 2022

Leveraging Cloud-Fog Automation for Autonomous Collision Detection and Classification in Intelligent Unmanned Surface Vehicles

Industrial Cyber-Physical Systems (ICPS) technologies are foundational in driving maritime autonomy, particularly for Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs). However, onboard computational constraints and communication latency significantly restrict real-time data processing, analysis, and predictive modeling, hence limiting the scalability and responsiveness of maritime ICPS. To overcome these challenges, we propose a distributed Cloud-Edge-IoT architecture tailored for maritime ICPS by leveraging design principles from the recently proposed Cloud-Fog Automation paradigm. Our proposed architecture comprises three hierarchical layers: a Cloud Layer for centralized and decentralized data aggregation, advanced analytics, and future model refinement; an Edge Layer that executes localized AI-driven processing and decision-making; and an IoT Layer responsible for low-latency sensor data acquisition. Our experimental results demonstrated improvements in computational efficiency, responsiveness, and scalability. When compared with our conventional approaches, we achieved a classification accuracy of 86\%, with an improved latency performance. By adopting Cloud-Fog Automation, we address the low-latency processing constraints and scalability challenges in maritime ICPS applications. Our work offers a practical, modular, and scalable framework to advance robust autonomy and AI-driven decision-making and autonomy for intelligent USVs in future maritime ICPS.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 22, 2025

Resolving the measurement uncertainty paradox in ecological management

Ecological management and decision-making typically focus on uncertainty about the future, but surprisingly little is known about how to account for uncertainty of the present: that is, the realities of having only partial or imperfect measurements. Our primary paradigms for handling decisions under uncertainty -- the precautionary principle and optimal control -- have so far given contradictory results. This paradox is best illustrated in the example of fisheries management, where many ideas that guide thinking about ecological decision making were first developed. We find that simplistic optimal control approaches have repeatedly concluded that a manager should increase catch quotas when faced with greater uncertainty about the fish biomass. Current best practices take a more precautionary approach, decreasing catch quotas by a fixed amount to account for uncertainty. Using comparisons to both simulated and historical catch data, we find that neither approach is sufficient to avoid stock collapses under moderate observational uncertainty. Using partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) methods, we demonstrate how this paradox arises from flaws in the standard theory, which contributes to over-exploitation of fisheries and increased probability of economic and ecological collapse. In contrast, we find POMDP-based management avoids such over-exploitation while also generating higher economic value. These results have significant implications for how we handle uncertainty in both fisheries and ecological management more generally.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 28, 2018

Artificial Intelligence in Port Logistics: A Bibliometric Analysis of Technological Integration and Research Dynamics

The paper explores the transformation of port logistics operations with artificial intelligence during the port transformation into a smart port. The research integrates capabilities-based resource analysis and dynamic capabilities with sociotechnicalimplementations of technologies and resilience approaches of complex systems under disruptions. The system applies robustdata infrastructures to propel analytical and AI modules that become effective once integrated with sufficient governance systems and trained personnel and operational processes to transform planning and safety and sustainability operations.It applies Scopus bibliometric research to analyze 123 articles using a systematic approach with both a search protocol and a document screening and duplication verification. It incorporates annual behavior and distribution of author and country performance analysis with science mapping techniques that explore keyword relation and co-citation and bibliographic coupling and conceptual structuring tools that construct thematic maps and multiple correspondence analysis with community detection while applying explicit thresholding and robust tests.The research connects AI applications to smart port domains through specific data-to-impact pathways while providing a method for bibliometric analysis that enables future updates. The research presents a step-by-step approach for data readiness followed by predictive and optimization implementation and organizational integration. The paper supports public policy through recommendations for data sharing standards and complete environmental benefit assessments. The research proposes a future study plan whichcombines field-based testing with multiple port assessments to enhance both cause-effect understanding and research applicability.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 7, 2025

Building a Safer Maritime Environment Through Multi-Path Long-Term Vessel Trajectory Forecasting

Maritime transportation is paramount in achieving global economic growth, entailing concurrent ecological obligations in sustainability and safeguarding endangered marine species, most notably preserving large whale populations. In this regard, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data plays a significant role by offering real-time streaming data on vessel movement, allowing enhanced traffic monitoring. This study explores using AIS data to prevent vessel-to-whale collisions by forecasting long-term vessel trajectories from engineered AIS data sequences. For such a task, we have developed an encoder-decoder model architecture using Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Networks (Bi-LSTM) to predict the next 12 hours of vessel trajectories using 1 to 3 hours of AIS data as input. We feed the model with probabilistic features engineered from historical AIS data that refer to each trajectory's potential route and destination. The model then predicts the vessel's trajectory, considering these additional features by leveraging convolutional layers for spatial feature learning and a position-aware attention mechanism that increases the importance of recent timesteps of a sequence during temporal feature learning. The probabilistic features have an F1 Score of approximately 85% and 75% for each feature type, respectively, demonstrating their effectiveness in augmenting information to the neural network. We test our model on the Gulf of St. Lawrence, a region known to be the habitat of North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW). Our model achieved a high R2 score of over 98% using various techniques and features. It stands out among other approaches as it can make complex decisions during turnings and path selection. Our study highlights the potential of data engineering and trajectory forecasting models for marine life species preservation.

  • 11 authors
·
Oct 29, 2023

Gravity-Informed Deep Learning Framework for Predicting Ship Traffic Flow and Invasion Risk of Non-Indigenous Species via Ballast Water Discharge

Invasive species in water bodies pose a major threat to the environment and biodiversity globally. Due to increased transportation and trade, non-native species have been introduced to new environments, causing damage to ecosystems and leading to economic losses in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. Therefore, there is a pressing need for risk assessment and management techniques to mitigate the impact of these invasions. This study aims to develop a new physics-inspired model to forecast maritime shipping traffic and thus inform risk assessment of invasive species spread through global transportation networks. Inspired by the gravity model for international trades, our model considers various factors that influence the likelihood and impact of vessel activities, such as shipping flux density, distance between ports, trade flow, and centrality measures of transportation hubs. Additionally, by analyzing the risk network of invasive species, we provide a comprehensive framework for assessing the invasion threat level given a pair of origin and destination. Accordingly, this paper introduces transformers to gravity models to rebuild the short- and long-term dependencies that make the risk analysis feasible. Thus, we introduce a physics-inspired framework that achieves an 89% segmentation accuracy for existing and non-existing trajectories and an 84.8% accuracy for the number of vessels flowing between key port areas, representing more than 10% improvement over the traditional deep-gravity model. Along these lines, this research contributes to a better understanding of invasive species risk assessment. It allows policymakers, conservationists, and stakeholders to prioritize management actions by identifying high-risk invasion pathways. Besides, our model is versatile and can include new data sources, making it suitable for assessing species invasion risks in a changing global landscape.

  • 6 authors
·
Jan 23, 2024

ToMPO: Training LLM Strategic Decision Making from a Multi-Agent Perspective

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been used to make decisions in complex scenarios, where they need models to think deeply, reason logically, and decide wisely. Many existing studies focus solely on multi-round conversations in social tasks or simulated environments, neglecting the various types of decisions and their interdependence. Current reinforcement learning methods struggle to consider the strategies of others during training. To address these issues, we first define a strategic decision-making problem that includes two types of decisions and their temporal dependencies. Furthermore, we propose **T**heory **o**f **M**ind **P**olicy **O**ptimization **(ToMPO)** algorithm to optimize the perception of other individual strategies and the game situation trends. Compared to the Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) algorithm, ToMPO enhances the LLM's strategic decision-making mainly by: 1) generating rollouts based on reasoning the strategies of other individuals, 2) estimating advantages at both the graph-level and sample-level, and 3) balancing global and partial rewards. The ToMPO algorithm outperforms the GRPO method by 35% in terms of model output compliance and cooperative outcomes. Additionally, when compared to models with parameter sizes 100 times larger, it shows an 18% improvement. This demonstrates the effectiveness of the ToMPO algorithm in enhancing the model's strategic decision-making capabilities.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 24, 2025

xView3-SAR: Detecting Dark Fishing Activity Using Synthetic Aperture Radar Imagery

Unsustainable fishing practices worldwide pose a major threat to marine resources and ecosystems. Identifying vessels that do not show up in conventional monitoring systems -- known as ``dark vessels'' -- is key to managing and securing the health of marine environments. With the rise of satellite-based synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging and modern machine learning (ML), it is now possible to automate detection of dark vessels day or night, under all-weather conditions. SAR images, however, require a domain-specific treatment and are not widely accessible to the ML community. Maritime objects (vessels and offshore infrastructure) are relatively small and sparse, challenging traditional computer vision approaches. We present the largest labeled dataset for training ML models to detect and characterize vessels and ocean structures in SAR imagery. xView3-SAR consists of nearly 1,000 analysis-ready SAR images from the Sentinel-1 mission that are, on average, 29,400-by-24,400 pixels each. The images are annotated using a combination of automated and manual analysis. Co-located bathymetry and wind state rasters accompany every SAR image. We also provide an overview of the xView3 Computer Vision Challenge, an international competition using xView3-SAR for ship detection and characterization at large scale. We release the data (https://iuu.xview.us/{https://iuu.xview.us/}) and code (https://github.com/DIUx-xView{https://github.com/DIUx-xView}) to support ongoing development and evaluation of ML approaches for this important application.

  • 8 authors
·
Jun 2, 2022

The Role, Trends, and Applications of Machine Learning in Undersea Communication: A Bangladesh Perspective

The rapid evolution of machine learning (ML) has brought about groundbreaking developments in numerous industries, not the least of which is in the area of undersea communication. This domain is critical for applications like ocean exploration, environmental monitoring, resource management, and national security. Bangladesh, a maritime nation with abundant resources in the Bay of Bengal, can harness the immense potential of ML to tackle the unprecedented challenges associated with underwater communication. Beyond that, environmental conditions are unique to the region: in addition to signal attenuation, multipath propagation, noise interference, and limited bandwidth. In this study, we address the necessity to bring ML into communication via undersea; it investigates the latest technologies under the domain of ML in that respect, such as deep learning and reinforcement learning, especially concentrating on Bangladesh scenarios in the sense of implementation. This paper offers a contextualized regional perspective by incorporating region-specific needs, case studies, and recent research to propose a roadmap for deploying ML-driven solutions to improve safety at sea, promote sustainable resource use, and enhance disaster response systems. This research ultimately highlights the promise of ML-powered solutions for transforming undersea communication, leading to more efficient and cost-effective technologies that subsequently contribute to both economic growth and environmental sustainability.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 1, 2025

AIS Data-Driven Maritime Monitoring Based on Transformer: A Comprehensive Review

With the increasing demands for safety, efficiency, and sustainability in global shipping, Automatic Identification System (AIS) data plays an increasingly important role in maritime monitoring. AIS data contains spatial-temporal variation patterns of vessels that hold significant research value in the marine domain. However, due to its massive scale, the full potential of AIS data has long remained untapped. With its powerful sequence modeling capabilities, particularly its ability to capture long-range dependencies and complex temporal dynamics, the Transformer model has emerged as an effective tool for processing AIS data. Therefore, this paper reviews the research on Transformer-based AIS data-driven maritime monitoring, providing a comprehensive overview of the current applications of Transformer models in the marine field. The focus is on Transformer-based trajectory prediction methods, behavior detection, and prediction techniques. Additionally, this paper collects and organizes publicly available AIS datasets from the reviewed papers, performing data filtering, cleaning, and statistical analysis. The statistical results reveal the operational characteristics of different vessel types, providing data support for further research on maritime monitoring tasks. Finally, we offer valuable suggestions for future research, identifying two promising research directions. Datasets are available at https://github.com/eyesofworld/Maritime-Monitoring.

  • 5 authors
·
May 12, 2025

Spacecraft Autonomous Decision-Planning for Collision Avoidance: a Reinforcement Learning Approach

The space environment around the Earth is becoming increasingly populated by both active spacecraft and space debris. To avoid potential collision events, significant improvements in Space Situational Awareness (SSA) activities and Collision Avoidance (CA) technologies are allowing the tracking and maneuvering of spacecraft with increasing accuracy and reliability. However, these procedures still largely involve a high level of human intervention to make the necessary decisions. For an increasingly complex space environment, this decision-making strategy is not likely to be sustainable. Therefore, it is important to successfully introduce higher levels of automation for key Space Traffic Management (STM) processes to ensure the level of reliability needed for navigating a large number of spacecraft. These processes range from collision risk detection to the identification of the appropriate action to take and the execution of avoidance maneuvers. This work proposes an implementation of autonomous CA decision-making capabilities on spacecraft based on Reinforcement Learning (RL) techniques. A novel methodology based on a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) framework is developed to train the Artificial Intelligence (AI) system on board the spacecraft, considering epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. The proposed framework considers imperfect monitoring information about the status of the debris in orbit and allows the AI system to effectively learn stochastic policies to perform accurate Collision Avoidance Maneuvers (CAMs). The objective is to successfully delegate the decision-making process for autonomously implementing a CAM to the spacecraft without human intervention. This approach would allow for a faster response in the decision-making process and for highly decentralized operations.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 29, 2023

Passive Sonar Sensor Placement for Undersea Surveillance

Detection of undersea threats is a complex problem of considerable importance for maritime regional surveillance and security. Multistatic sonar systems can provide a means to monitor for underwater threats, where fixed sensors, towed arrays and dipping sonars may be utilised for this purpose. However, it is advantageous to deploy passive sensors to provide a stealthy early warning system. Hence this paper is concerned with determining where a series of passive sonar sensors should be situated in order to provide an initial threat detection capability. In order to facilitate this it is necessary to derive a suitable expression for the probability of threat detection from a passive sensor. This is based upon considerations of the passive sonar equation. It will be demonstrated how the stochastic aspects of this equation may be modelled through appropriate random variables capturing the uncertainty in noise levels. Subsequently this is utilised to produce the system-level probability of threat detection. Since the threat location is also unknown an appropriate statistical model is introduced to account for this uncertainty. This then permits the specification of the probability of detection as a function of sensor locations. Consequently it is then possible to determine optimal sensor placement to maximise the threat detection probability. This provides a new way in which to determine whether a surveillance region is covered adequately by sensors. The methodology will be illustrated through a series of examples utilising passive sonar characteristics sourced from the open literature.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 5, 2025

Pretty darn good control: when are approximate solutions better than approximate models

Existing methods for optimal control struggle to deal with the complexity commonly encountered in real-world systems, including dimensionality, process error, model bias and data heterogeneity. Instead of tackling these system complexities directly, researchers have typically sought to simplify models to fit optimal control methods. But when is the optimal solution to an approximate, stylized model better than an approximate solution to a more accurate model? While this question has largely gone unanswered owing to the difficulty of finding even approximate solutions for complex models, recent algorithmic and computational advances in deep reinforcement learning (DRL) might finally allow us to address these questions. DRL methods have to date been applied primarily in the context of games or robotic mechanics, which operate under precisely known rules. Here, we demonstrate the ability for DRL algorithms using deep neural networks to successfully approximate solutions (the "policy function" or control rule) in a non-linear three-variable model for a fishery without knowing or ever attempting to infer a model for the process itself. We find that the reinforcement learning agent discovers an effective simplification of the problem to obtain an interpretable control rule. We show that the policy obtained with DRL is both more profitable and more sustainable than any constant mortality policy -- the standard family of policies considered in fishery management.

  • 5 authors
·
Aug 25, 2023

Probing Outcome-Level Resemblance and Mechanism-Level Alignment in LLM Risk Decisions: Evidence from the St. Petersburg Game

LLMs can appear cautious in risk decision-making tasks, yet cautious-looking outputs do not necessarily indicate alignment with human decision-making mechanisms. We investigate this distinction using the St. Petersburg game as a controlled testbed, a classical paradox in which the expected payoff is infinite, yet humans typically report low, finite willingness to pay. We evaluate 28 LLMs with a structured prompt suite that includes the original game; controlled decision variants that perturb truncation, repeated play, numeric endowment, and occupational identity; a human-perspective prompt that asks models to reason as human decision makers; and paired comparisons between base models and their instruction-tuned counterparts. In the original game, most models generate finite bids, creating the appearance of human-like risk behavior. However, this outcome-level resemblance masks substantial mechanism-level differences. The controlled variants reveal that rather than maintaining human-like behavior seen in the original game, models often shift to conditionally and computationally rational behavior. Human-cue prompting and instruction tuning often lower bids and reduce some visible pathologies, but most mechanism-level response patterns remain largely unchanged. These findings show that behavioral alignment in risk decision-making can be surface-level: LLMs may produce human-like risk decisions without exhibiting human-consistent mechanisms. High-stakes evaluations of LLM decision-making should therefore move beyond outcome similarity and examine whether the alignment is supported by mechanism-level consistency.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 2 1

SteerBench-Work: A Benchmark for Agent Steering at Action Boundaries

Long-running LLM agents act through tools, and a single step can send an email, merge a pull request, or wire a payment. The steering decision is the pre-commit choice at that boundary: proceed, or hold for human or policy review. We introduce SteerBench-Work, an incident-anchored, bidirectional benchmark for that decision in workplace agents across developer operations, customer service, finance, legal, medical, HR, and security. Release v2026-05 contains 106 scenarios anchored in public incidents, paired evidence-reversed mirrors, and calibration controls, with labels split nearly evenly between proceed and hold so the two error directions get near-identical numbers of chances. A model sees the proposed action and the available evidence, returns a gate decision, and is scored on whether it crosses or holds the boundary correctly. Across 30 model conditions the failures run almost entirely in one direction: models wrongly hold authorized, evidence-cleared work on 28.1% of opportunities and wrongly allow unsafe work on 1.0%. The hardest cases are risk-resolved commits, where signed or structured evidence has already cleared a real risk trigger, and models score markedly worse on evidence-reversed mirrors of famous incidents (63.8%) than on the incidents themselves (98.5%). General capability is not the same as steering calibration: higher-capability models often over-refuse at the commit boundary, and more reasoning can repair a weak gate while leaving a calibrated one flat. The public leaderboard is at steerbench.com.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 11

Unfolding AIS transmission behavior for vessel movement modeling on noisy data leveraging machine learning

The oceans are a source of an impressive mixture of complex data that could be used to uncover relationships yet to be discovered. Such data comes from the oceans and their surface, such as Automatic Identification System (AIS) messages used for tracking vessels' trajectories. AIS messages are transmitted over radio or satellite at ideally periodic time intervals but vary irregularly over time. As such, this paper aims to model the AIS message transmission behavior through neural networks for forecasting upcoming AIS messages' content from multiple vessels, particularly in a simultaneous approach despite messages' temporal irregularities as outliers. We present a set of experiments comprising multiple algorithms for forecasting tasks with horizon sizes of varying lengths. Deep learning models (e.g., neural networks) revealed themselves to adequately preserve vessels' spatial awareness regardless of temporal irregularity. We show how convolutional layers, feed-forward networks, and recurrent neural networks can improve such tasks by working together. Experimenting with short, medium, and large-sized sequences of messages, our model achieved 36/37/38% of the Relative Percentage Difference - the lower, the better, whereas we observed 92/45/96% on the Elman's RNN, 51/52/40% on the GRU, and 129/98/61% on the LSTM. These results support our model as a driver for improving the prediction of vessel routes when analyzing multiple vessels of diverging types simultaneously under temporally noise data.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 24, 2022

Synthesizing mixed-integer linear programming models from natural language descriptions

Numerous real-world decision-making problems can be formulated and solved using Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) models. However, the transformation of these problems into MILP models heavily relies on expertise in operations research and mathematical optimization, which restricts non-experts' accessibility to MILP. To address this challenge, we propose a framework for automatically formulating MILP models from unstructured natural language descriptions of decision problems, which integrates Large Language Models (LLMs) and mathematical modeling techniques. This framework consists of three phases: i) identification of decision variables, ii) classification of objective and constraints, and iii) finally, generation of MILP models. In this study, we present a constraint classification scheme and a set of constraint templates that can guide the LLMs in synthesizing a complete MILP model. After fine-tuning LLMs, our approach can identify and synthesize logic constraints in addition to classic demand and resource constraints. The logic constraints have not been studied in existing work. To evaluate the performance of the proposed framework, we extend the NL4Opt dataset with more problem descriptions and constraint types, and with the new dataset, we compare our framework with one-step model generation methods offered by LLMs. The experimental results reveal that with respect to the accuracies of generating the correct model, objective, and constraints, our method which integrates constraint classification and templates with LLMs significantly outperforms the others. The prototype system that we developed has a great potential to capture more constraints for more complex MILPs. It opens up opportunities for developing training tools for operations research practitioners and has the potential to be a powerful tool for automatic decision problem modeling and solving in practice.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 26, 2023

Autonomous Oil Spill Response Through Liquid Neural Trajectory Modeling and Coordinated Marine Robotics

Marine oil spills pose grave environmental and economic risks, threatening marine ecosystems, coastlines, and dependent industries. Predicting and managing oil spill trajectories is highly complex, due to the interplay of physical, chemical, and environmental factors such as wind, currents, and temperature, which makes timely and effective response challenging. Accurate real-time trajectory forecasting and coordinated mitigation are vital for minimizing the impact of these disasters. This study introduces an integrated framework combining a multi-agent swarm robotics system built on the MOOS-IvP platform with Liquid Time-Constant Neural Networks (LTCNs). The proposed system fuses adaptive machine learning with autonomous marine robotics, enabling real-time prediction, dynamic tracking, and rapid response to evolving oil spills. By leveraging LTCNs--well-suited for modeling complex, time-dependent processes--the framework achieves real-time, high-accuracy forecasts of spill movement. Swarm intelligence enables decentralized, scalable, and resilient decision-making among robot agents, enhancing collective monitoring and containment efforts. Our approach was validated using data from the Deepwater Horizon spill, where the LTC-RK4 model achieved 0.96 spatial accuracy, surpassing LSTM approaches by 23%. The integration of advanced neural modeling with autonomous, coordinated robotics demonstrates substantial improvements in prediction precision, flexibility, and operational scalability. Ultimately, this research advances the state-of-the-art for sustainable, autonomous oil spill management and environmental protection by enhancing both trajectory prediction and response coordination.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 17, 2025

The AI Evaluability Gap: The Missing Layer for Managing Risk and Sustaining Value

Organizations deploying AI face two fundamental governance challenges: managing AI risk and sustaining AI value. Both depend on evidence whose sufficiency cannot be taken for granted. We call the shared underlying challenge the AI Evaluability Gap: the condition in which organizations lack sufficient evidence to support high-confidence governance decisions regarding either risk or value. We argue that this gap reflects a category error in current practice. Existing governance approaches focus primarily on properties of systems, such as safety, fairness, reliability, compliance, and value, while paying comparatively little attention to the evidentiary foundations required to justify decisions about those properties. We further argue that AI governance encompasses both operational decisions regarding whether a system may operate and investment decisions regarding whether it merits continued organizational resources. To address this problem, we introduce Evaluability, defined as the capability of a system to generate, maintain, and renew evidence sufficient to support high-confidence governance decisions over time. We formalize governance decisions as functions of calibrated confidence Conf(D|E) and identify six properties of evaluable evidence: observability, attributability, intervenability, verifiability, calibration, and temporal validity. The framework distinguishes Operational Certification, which relies primarily on structural evidence to justify deployment decisions, from Investment Certification, which relies primarily on causal evidence to justify continued resource allocation. We argue that evidence sufficiency is a missing layer of AI governance and that closing the AI Evaluability Gap is a prerequisite for both managing risk and sustaining value in AI-enabled organizations.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 18

A Threshold Exceedance Framework for CBRN Uplift Evaluation in Frontier Language Models

As frontier language models advance, policymakers and model developers need methods for assessing whether model access materially increases a non-expert actor's ability to plan high-consequence Chemical, Biological, Radiological, or Nuclear (CBRN) misuse relative to public tools alone. Existing CBRN evaluations differ in non-expert definitions, threat scope, baselines, scoring rubrics, and decision rules, making results difficult to compare across studies. We introduce a Threshold Exceedance Criteria (TEC) framework that decomposes an uplift study into independently executable components: determining non-expert participant eligibility, defining the CBRN threat scope for the study, and statistically estimating material uplift. We then operationalize the TEC framework in a large-scale empirical study using a design that determines two forms of uplift: generative (where a model assists plan creation from scratch) and revisionist (where a model assists refinement of an existing plan). The study produced attack plans across the CBRN domains, which we evaluated through subject-matter-expert review to estimate generative and revisionist uplift. Applying the framework, our empirical study revealed domain heterogeneity: under this controlled pre-release evaluation, model-assisted plans sometimes received expert-equivalent instructional ratings, but confirmed material uplift was limited to the radiological domain. These findings informed mitigation and deployment-governance decisions rather than characterizing deployed model behavior. We conclude with methodological lessons for future CBRN uplift evaluations, emphasizing prespecified criteria, explicit baselines, separation of generative and revisionist estimates, and careful distinction between preliminary screening signals and confirmed risk determinations.

  • 11 authors
·
Jul 12