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Jul 16

AEGIS: A Backup Reflex for Physical AI

Long-horizon robot manipulation tends to fail gradually: one bad step degrades the state, and the policy spirals into a basin from which it cannot recover. The failure is often visible before it happens. We introduce AEGIS (Activation-probe Early-warning, Gated Inference Switching), a selective escalation method that uses a lightweight probe on a weak policy's frozen activations to detect high-risk steps while there is still time to act. When the probe flags a step, control switches to a stronger separate policy, but only for the steps that need it. On LIBERO-Spatial, AEGIS recovers 10.1% of the trajectories the weak policy alone loses, versus 4.6% for budget-matched blind escalation and 5.1% for a random-trigger placebo. These gains are significant under one-sided exact paired McNemar tests with Holm-Bonferroni adjustment over three pre-registered contrasts: +5.4pp over blind escalation, p=8.5e-6; +5.0pp over random triggering, p=1.0e-4; paired-trajectory bootstrap CIs exclude zero. AEGIS activates the stronger policy on only 38% of steps, so the lever is timing rather than compute. The probe clears its precondition with an early-window AUROC of 0.764, 95% CI [0.70, 0.84], read from the weak-policy path over the first 30% of trajectory steps before any handoff. We pre-register the full analysis plan, including a conditional recovered-task-rate estimand and explicit kill criteria, and confirm the result on 700 common-random-number episodes per arm, with nA-fail=646.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 3

ORCH: many analyses, one merge-a deterministic multi-agent orchestrator for discrete-choice reasoning with EMA-guided routing

Recent advances in large-scale language models (LLMs) have made multi-agent architectures attractive for challenging reasoning tasks. However, many existing systems rely on stochastic routing or ad-hoc heuristics, making their behavior difficult to reproduce and their decision process hard to interpret. We propose ORCH, a deterministic coordination framework for discrete-choice reasoning that orchestrates heterogeneous LLMs. ORCH follows a ``many analyses, one decision'' paradigm: multiple base models independently produce structured analyses, and a dedicated merge agent outputs the final choice. The framework uses fixed rules for task decomposition and answer aggregation, keeping the pipeline predictable, reproducible, and training-free. Determinism here refers to fixed routing and aggregation rules under a fixed evaluation protocol, rather than strict bit-level reproducibility across deployments. To exploit model complementarity, we optionally introduce an EMA-guided router that updates agent selection using historical accuracy, latency, or cost; since it relies on answer-based feedback, it is mainly intended for benchmarking, controlled evaluation, or delayed-feedback settings. Experiments on MMLU, MMLU-Pro, and GSM8K show that ORCH consistently outperforms single-model baselines and a majority-vote ensemble. On MMLU-Pro, ORCH improves accuracy by over 10 points compared to the strongest baseline, and on GSM8K it yields gains exceeding 50 points; McNemar tests confirm statistical significance. The EMA router provides an additional 0.7--2.0 point accuracy boost, and ablations show that both multi-agent collaboration and routing contribute substantially. Overall, ORCH offers a practical path toward controllable, interpretable, and deployment-ready LLM-based agent systems for discrete-choice reasoning.

  • 2 authors
·
Feb 1

Advancing Multimodal Reasoning Capabilities of Multimodal Large Language Models via Visual Perception Reward

Enhancing the multimodal reasoning capabilities of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) is a challenging task that has attracted increasing attention in the community. Recently, several studies have applied Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) to the multimodal domain in order to enhance the reasoning abilities of MLLMs. However, these works largely overlook the enhancement of multimodal perception capabilities in MLLMs, which serve as a core prerequisite and foundational component of complex multimodal reasoning. Through McNemar's test, we find that existing RLVR method fails to effectively enhance the multimodal perception capabilities of MLLMs, thereby limiting their further improvement in multimodal reasoning. To address this limitation, we propose Perception-R1, which introduces a novel visual perception reward that explicitly encourages MLLMs to perceive the visual content accurately, thereby can effectively incentivizing both their multimodal perception and reasoning capabilities. Specifically, we first collect textual visual annotations from the CoT trajectories of multimodal problems, which will serve as visual references for reward assignment. During RLVR training, we employ a judging LLM to assess the consistency between the visual annotations and the responses generated by MLLM, and assign the visual perception reward based on these consistency judgments. Extensive experiments on several multimodal reasoning benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our Perception-R1, which achieves state-of-the-art performance on most benchmarks using only 1,442 training data.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 8, 2025

Does Inference Scaling Improve Reasoning Faithfulness? A Multi-Model Analysis of Self-Consistency Tradeoffs

Self-consistency has emerged as a popular technique for improving large language model accuracy on reasoning tasks. The approach is straightforward: generate multiple reasoning paths and select the most common answer through majority voting. While this reliably boosts accuracy, it remains unclear whether these gains reflect genuine improvements in reasoning quality. We investigate a fundamental question that has not been studied before: does inference scaling improve reasoning faithfulness? We conduct a comprehensive empirical study across four frontier models (GPT-5.2, Claude Opus 4.5, Gemini-3-flash-preview, and DeepSeek-v3.2) on 100 GSM8K mathematical reasoning problems. Our analysis employs bootstrap confidence intervals, McNemar's tests for paired comparisons, and Cohen's d effect sizes to quantify the effects rigorously. The results reveal striking differences across models that challenge common assumptions about self-consistency. GPT-5.2 shows the expected pattern: accuracy improves from 78% to 90% at N=5, with faithfulness remaining relatively stable (0.540 to 0.510). Claude Opus 4.5 tells a completely different story. Its accuracy actually drops from 78% to 74.3% while faithfulness jumps dramatically from 0.270 to 0.891 at N=5. DeepSeek-v3.2, already at 98% accuracy, shows ceiling effects with modest faithfulness gains (0.440 to 0.541). Gemini-3-flash improves from 81% to 86% accuracy with a slight faithfulness decrease (0.260 to 0.212). Problem difficulty analysis reveals that GPT-5.2 solves 82% of hard problems while breaking only 13% of easy ones. Claude, in contrast, breaks 23% of easy problems, explaining its accuracy decrease. These findings matter for practitioners: self-consistency is not universally beneficial, and teams should test their specific models before deployment. We release our code and provide practical recommendations for navigating these tradeoffs.

  • 1 authors
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Jan 9 2

Measuring Faithfulness Depends on How You Measure: Classifier Sensitivity in LLM Chain-of-Thought Evaluation

Recent work on chain-of-thought (CoT) faithfulness reports single aggregate numbers (e.g., DeepSeek-R1 acknowledges hints 39% of the time), implying that faithfulness is an objective, measurable property of a model. This paper demonstrates that it is not. Three classifiers (a regex-only detector, a two-stage regex-plus-LLM pipeline, and an independent Claude Sonnet 4 judge) are applied to 10,276 influenced reasoning traces from 12 open-weight models spanning 9 families and 7B to 1T parameters. On identical data, these classifiers produce overall faithfulness rates of 74.4%, 82.6%, and 69.7%, respectively, with non-overlapping 95% confidence intervals. Per-model gaps range from 2.6 to 30.6 percentage points; all are statistically significant (McNemar's test, p < 0.001). The disagreements are systematic, not random: inter-classifier agreement measured by Cohen's kappa ranges from 0.06 ("slight") for sycophancy hints to 0.42 ("moderate") for grader hints, and the asymmetry is pronounced: for sycophancy, 883 cases are classified as faithful by the pipeline but unfaithful by the Sonnet judge, while only 2 go the other direction. Classifier choice can also reverse model rankings: Qwen3.5-27B ranks 1st under the pipeline but 7th under the Sonnet judge; OLMo-3.1-32B moves in the opposite direction, from 9th to 3rd. The root cause is that different classifiers operationalize related faithfulness constructs at different levels of stringency (lexical mention versus epistemic dependence), and these constructs yield divergent measurements on the same behavior. These results demonstrate that published faithfulness numbers cannot be meaningfully compared across studies that use different classifiers, and that future evaluations should report sensitivity ranges across multiple classification methodologies rather than single point estimates.

  • 1 authors
·
Mar 20

Towards Accurate Differential Diagnosis with Large Language Models

An accurate differential diagnosis (DDx) is a cornerstone of medical care, often reached through an iterative process of interpretation that combines clinical history, physical examination, investigations and procedures. Interactive interfaces powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) present new opportunities to both assist and automate aspects of this process. In this study, we introduce an LLM optimized for diagnostic reasoning, and evaluate its ability to generate a DDx alone or as an aid to clinicians. 20 clinicians evaluated 302 challenging, real-world medical cases sourced from the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) case reports. Each case report was read by two clinicians, who were randomized to one of two assistive conditions: either assistance from search engines and standard medical resources, or LLM assistance in addition to these tools. All clinicians provided a baseline, unassisted DDx prior to using the respective assistive tools. Our LLM for DDx exhibited standalone performance that exceeded that of unassisted clinicians (top-10 accuracy 59.1% vs 33.6%, [p = 0.04]). Comparing the two assisted study arms, the DDx quality score was higher for clinicians assisted by our LLM (top-10 accuracy 51.7%) compared to clinicians without its assistance (36.1%) (McNemar's Test: 45.7, p < 0.01) and clinicians with search (44.4%) (4.75, p = 0.03). Further, clinicians assisted by our LLM arrived at more comprehensive differential lists than those without its assistance. Our study suggests that our LLM for DDx has potential to improve clinicians' diagnostic reasoning and accuracy in challenging cases, meriting further real-world evaluation for its ability to empower physicians and widen patients' access to specialist-level expertise.

  • 28 authors
·
Nov 30, 2023 1

Physics-R1: An Audited Olympiad Corpus and Recipe for Visual Physics Reasoning

We audit the multimodal-physics evaluation pipeline end-to-end and document three undetected construction practices that distort how the field measures vision-language reasoning: train-eval contamination, translation drift, and MCQ saturation. (1) Public training pools (UGPhysics-Train, SciInstruct, MMK12) pass single-stage 5-gram-Jaccard audits with zero hits across all six public physics evals; a three-stage audit (Jaccard -> mxbai-embed-large cosine -> Haiku-4.5 LLM-judge) surfaces 134 near-duplicates and 4,846 paraphrase candidates in SciInstruct alone. (2) A 17-pp Sonnet 4.5 delta on 59 paired Estonian-English olympiad problems (30.5% vs. 13.6%; sign test p=0.011, McNemar p=0.021, paired bootstrap 95% CI [+5.1, +28.9] pp). (3) A 46-pp format-and-novelty gradient on identical Sonnet weights between MCQ (79.7% on PhyX) and open-ended olympiad evaluation (33.4% on PhysOlym-A). We release four artifacts addressing these gaps: PhysCorp-A (6,432-record three-stage-audited multimodal corpus), PhysR1Corp (2,268-record closed-form RL pool), PhysOlym-A (500-problem, 99.8% novel-source held-out olympiad eval with native difficulty labels and an EN/ET bilingual subset), and Physics-R1, a reference GSPO+DAPO recipe cold-started from Qwen3-VL-8B-Thinking. Across 3 seeds, Physics-R1 lifts the audited corpus over the 8B base by +18.3 pp on PhysOlym-A liberal (8.0 -> 26.3 +/- 1.7; 7.1 pp behind Sonnet 4.5), +15.7 pp on PhysReason (23.9 -> 39.6 +/- 6.4; ahead of Qwen3-VL-32B and Gemini 2.5 Pro), +6.9 pp on OlympiadBench-Physics (46.2 +/- 1.5), and +4.1 pp on PhyX MCQ (77.8 +/- 0.3).

  • 1 authors
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May 12 2