Daily Papers

The application of Large Language Models (LLMs) in accelerating scientific discovery has garnered increasing attention, with a key focus on constructing research agents endowed with innovative capability, i.e., the ability to autonomously generate novel and significant research ideas. Existing approaches predominantly rely on sophisticated prompt engineering and lack a systematic training paradigm. To address this, we propose DeepInnovator, a training framework designed to trigger the innovative capability of LLMs. Our approach comprises two core components. (1) ``Standing on the shoulders of giants''. We construct an automated data extraction pipeline to extract and organize structured research knowledge from a vast corpus of unlabeled scientific literature. (2) ``Conjectures and refutations''. We introduce a ``Next Idea Prediction'' training paradigm, which models the generation of research ideas as an iterative process of continuously predicting, evaluating, and refining plausible and novel next idea. Both automatic and expert evaluations demonstrate that our DeepInnovator-14B significantly outperforms untrained baselines, achieving win rates of 80.53\%-93.81\%, and attains performance comparable to that of current leading LLMs. This work provides a scalable training pathway toward building research agents with genuine, originative innovative capability, and will open-source the dataset to foster community advancement. Source code and data are available at: https://github.com/HKUDS/DeepInnovator.

Scenes are complex, yet structured collections of parts, including objects and surfaces, that exhibit spatial and semantic relations to one another. An effective visual system therefore needs unified scene representations that relate scene parts to their location and their co-occurrence. We hypothesize that this structure can be learned self-supervised from natural experience by exploiting the temporal regularities of active vision: each fixation reveals a locally-detailed glimpse that is statistically related to the previous one via co-occurrence and saccade-conditioned spatial regularities. We instantiate this idea with Glimpse Prediction Networks (GPNs) -- recurrent models trained to predict the feature embedding of the next glimpse along human-like scanpaths over natural scenes. GPNs successfully learn co-occurrence structure and, when given relative saccade location vectors, show sensitivity to spatial arrangement. Furthermore, recurrent variants of GPNs were able to integrate information across glimpses into a unified scene representation. Notably, these scene representations align strongly with human fMRI responses during natural-scene viewing across mid/high-level visual cortex. Critically, GPNs outperform architecture- and dataset-matched controls trained with explicit semantic objectives, and match or exceed strong modern vision baselines, leaving little unique variance for those alternatives. These results establish next-glimpse prediction during active vision as a biologically plausible, self-supervised route to brain-aligned scene representations learned from natural visual experience.

Autoregressive models, built based on the Next Token Prediction (NTP) paradigm, show great potential in developing a unified framework that integrates both language and vision tasks. In this work, we rethink the NTP for autoregressive image generation and propose a novel Next Patch Prediction (NPP) paradigm. Our key idea is to group and aggregate image tokens into patch tokens containing high information density. With patch tokens as a shorter input sequence, the autoregressive model is trained to predict the next patch, thereby significantly reducing the computational cost. We further propose a multi-scale coarse-to-fine patch grouping strategy that exploits the natural hierarchical property of image data. Experiments on a diverse range of models (100M-1.4B parameters) demonstrate that the next patch prediction paradigm could reduce the training cost to around 0.6 times while improving image generation quality by up to 1.0 FID score on the ImageNet benchmark. We highlight that our method retains the original autoregressive model architecture without introducing additional trainable parameters or specifically designing a custom image tokenizer, thus ensuring flexibility and seamless adaptation to various autoregressive models for visual generation.

We present an approach to pose object recognition as next token prediction. The idea is to apply a language decoder that auto-regressively predicts the text tokens from image embeddings to form labels. To ground this prediction process in auto-regression, we customize a non-causal attention mask for the decoder, incorporating two key features: modeling tokens from different labels to be independent, and treating image tokens as a prefix. This masking mechanism inspires an efficient method - one-shot sampling - to simultaneously sample tokens of multiple labels in parallel and rank generated labels by their probabilities during inference. To further enhance the efficiency, we propose a simple strategy to construct a compact decoder by simply discarding the intermediate blocks of a pretrained language model. This approach yields a decoder that matches the full model's performance while being notably more efficient. The code is available at https://github.com/kaiyuyue/nxtp

The remarkable achievements of large language models (LLMs) have led many to conclude that they exhibit a form of intelligence. This is as opposed to explanations of their capabilities based on their ability to perform relatively simple manipulations of vast volumes of data. To illuminate the distinction between these explanations, we introduce a novel generative model that generates tokens on the basis of human-interpretable concepts represented as latent discrete variables. Under mild conditions, even when the mapping from the latent space to the observed space is non-invertible, we establish an identifiability result, i.e., the representations learned by LLMs through next-token prediction can be approximately modeled as the logarithm of the posterior probabilities of these latent discrete concepts given input context, up to an invertible linear transformation. This theoretical finding not only provides evidence that LLMs capture underlying generative factors, but also provide a unified prospective for understanding of the linear representation hypothesis. Taking this a step further, our finding motivates a reliable evaluation of sparse autoencoders by treating the performance of supervised concept extractors as an upper bound. Pushing this idea even further, it inspires a structural variant that enforces dependence among latent concepts in addition to promoting sparsity. Empirically, we validate our theoretical results through evaluations on both simulation data and the Pythia, Llama, and DeepSeek model families, and demonstrate the effectiveness of our structured sparse autoencoder.

Next Location Prediction is a fundamental task in the study of human mobility, with wide-ranging applications in transportation planning, urban governance, and epidemic forecasting. In practice, when humans attempt to predict the next location in a trajectory, they often visualize the trajectory on a map and reason based on road connectivity and movement trends. However, the vast majority of existing next-location prediction models do not reason over maps in the way that humans do. Fortunately, the recent development of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) has demonstrated strong capabilities in visual perception and even visual reasoning. This opens up a new possibility: by rendering both the road network and trajectory onto an image and leveraging the reasoning abilities of VLMs, we can enable models to perform trajectory inference in a human-like manner. To explore this idea, we first propose a method called Vision-Guided Location Search (VGLS), which evaluates whether a general-purpose VLM is capable of trajectory-based reasoning without modifying any of its internal parameters. Based on insights from the VGLS results, we further propose our main approach: VLMLocPredictor, which is composed of two stages: In the first stage, we design two Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) tasks that help the VLM understand road network and trajectory structures and acquire basic reasoning ability on such visual inputs. In the second stage, we introduce Reinforcement Learning from Visual Map Feedback, enabling the model to self-improve its next-location prediction ability through interaction with the environment. Experiments conducted on datasets from four different cities show that our method achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance and exhibits superior cross-city generalization compared to other LLM-based approaches.

Autoregressive Language Models (LLMs) trained on Next-Token Prediction (NTP) often suffer from ``Topic Drift'' where the generation wanders away from the initial prompt due to a reliance on local associations rather than global planning holtzman2019curious. While scaling model size mitigates this brown2020language, the fundamental myopia of the NTP objective remains. In this work, we introduce the Idea-Gated Transformer, a novel architecture that separates semantic planning from syntactic generation. We introduce an auxiliary ``Idea Head'' trained to predict the bag-of-words distribution for a future context window, creating a latent ``Concept Vector'' that actively gates the main vocabulary during generation. We propose a differentiable gating mechanism that suppresses semantically irrelevant tokens, effectively pruning the search space in real-time. Experiments on WikiText-103 demonstrate that while the Idea-Gated model achieves comparable validation perplexity to a standard GPT-2 baseline, it exhibits significantly superior Domain Retention. Qualitative and quantitative analysis reveals that the gating mechanism successfully locks generation into specific semantic clusters (e.g., Finance, Science) and resists associative drift, offering a parameter-efficient path toward more controllable language modeling.

While RAG demonstrates remarkable capabilities in LLM applications, its effectiveness is hindered by the ever-increasing length of retrieved contexts, which introduces information redundancy and substantial computational overhead. Existing context pruning methods, such as LLMLingua, lack contextual awareness and offer limited flexibility in controlling compression rates, often resulting in either insufficient pruning or excessive information loss. In this paper, we propose AttentionRAG, an attention-guided context pruning method for RAG systems. The core idea of AttentionRAG lies in its attention focus mechanism, which reformulates RAG queries into a next-token prediction paradigm. This mechanism isolates the query's semantic focus to a single token, enabling precise and efficient attention calculation between queries and retrieved contexts. Extensive experiments on LongBench and Babilong benchmarks show that AttentionRAG achieves up to 6.3times context compression while outperforming LLMLingua methods by around 10\% in key metrics.

Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit logs of completed cases of a process in order to make predictions about running cases thereof. Existing methods in this space are tailor-made for specific prediction tasks. Moreover, their relative accuracy is highly sensitive to the dataset at hand, thus requiring users to engage in trial-and-error and tuning when applying them in a specific setting. This paper investigates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks as an approach to build consistently accurate models for a wide range of predictive process monitoring tasks. First, we show that LSTMs outperform existing techniques to predict the next event of a running case and its timestamp. Next, we show how to use models for predicting the next task in order to predict the full continuation of a running case. Finally, we apply the same approach to predict the remaining time, and show that this approach outperforms existing tailor-made methods.

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have shown promising abilities to generate novel research ideas in science, a direction which coincides with many foundational principles in computational creativity (CC). In light of these developments, we present an idea generation system named Spark that couples retrieval-augmented idea generation using LLMs with a reviewer model named Judge trained on 600K scientific reviews from OpenReview. Our work is both a system demonstration and intended to inspire other CC researchers to explore grounding the generation and evaluation of scientific ideas within foundational CC principles. To this end, we release the annotated dataset used to train Judge, inviting other researchers to explore the use of LLMs for idea generation and creative evaluations.

Can a mere next-token predictor faithfully model human intelligence? We crystallize this intuitive concern, which is fragmented in the literature. As a starting point, we argue that the two often-conflated phases of next-token prediction -- autoregressive inference and teacher-forced training -- must be treated distinctly. The popular criticism that errors can compound during autoregressive inference, crucially assumes that teacher-forcing has learned an accurate next-token predictor. This assumption sidesteps a more deep-rooted problem we expose: in certain classes of tasks, teacher-forcing can simply fail to learn an accurate next-token predictor in the first place. We describe a general mechanism of how teacher-forcing can fail, and design a minimal planning task where both the Transformer and the Mamba architecture empirically fail in that manner -- remarkably, despite the task being straightforward to learn. We provide preliminary evidence that this failure can be resolved when training to predict multiple tokens in advance. We hope this finding can ground future debates and inspire explorations beyond the next-token prediction paradigm. We make our code available under https://github.com/gregorbachmann/Next-Token-Failures

"An idea is nothing more nor less than a new combination of old elements" (Young, J.W.). The widespread adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs) and publicly available ChatGPT have marked a significant turning point in the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into people's everyday lives. This study explores the capability of LLMs in generating novel research ideas based on information from research papers. We conduct a thorough examination of 4 LLMs in five domains (e.g., Chemistry, Computer, Economics, Medical, and Physics). We found that the future research ideas generated by Claude-2 and GPT-4 are more aligned with the author's perspective than GPT-3.5 and Gemini. We also found that Claude-2 generates more diverse future research ideas than GPT-4, GPT-3.5, and Gemini 1.0. We further performed a human evaluation of the novelty, relevancy, and feasibility of the generated future research ideas. This investigation offers insights into the evolving role of LLMs in idea generation, highlighting both its capability and limitations. Our work contributes to the ongoing efforts in evaluating and utilizing language models for generating future research ideas. We make our datasets and codes publicly available.

Scientific innovation is pivotal for humanity, and harnessing large language models (LLMs) to generate research ideas could transform discovery. However, existing LLMs often produce simplistic and repetitive suggestions due to their limited ability in acquiring external knowledge for innovation. To address this problem, we introduce an enhanced planning and search methodology designed to boost the creative potential of LLM-based systems. Our approach involves an iterative process to purposely plan the retrieval of external knowledge, progressively enriching the idea generation with broader and deeper insights. Validation through automated and human assessments indicates that our framework substantially elevates the quality of generated ideas, particularly in novelty and diversity. The number of unique novel ideas produced by our framework is 3.4 times higher than without it. Moreover, our method outperforms the current state-of-the-art, generating at least 2.5 times more top-rated ideas based on 170 seed papers in a Swiss Tournament evaluation.

In an era of exponential scientific growth, identifying novel research ideas is crucial and challenging in academia. Despite potential, the lack of an appropriate benchmark dataset hinders the research of novelty detection. More importantly, simply adopting existing NLP technologies, e.g., retrieving and then cross-checking, is not a one-size-fits-all solution due to the gap between textual similarity and idea conception. In this paper, we propose to harness large language models (LLMs) for scientific novelty detection (ND), associated with two new datasets in marketing and NLP domains. To construct the considerate datasets for ND, we propose to extract closure sets of papers based on their relationship, and then summarize their main ideas based on LLMs. To capture idea conception, we propose to train a lightweight retriever by distilling the idea-level knowledge from LLMs to align ideas with similar conception, enabling efficient and accurate idea retrieval for LLM novelty detection. Experiments show our method consistently outperforms others on the proposed benchmark datasets for idea retrieval and ND tasks. Codes and data are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/NoveltyDetection-10FB/.

Next-token prediction serves as the foundational learning task enabling reasoning in LLMs. But what should the learning task be when aiming to equip MLLMs with temporal reasoning capabilities over video inputs? Existing tasks such as video question answering often rely on annotations from humans or much stronger MLLMs, while video captioning tends to entangle temporal reasoning with spatial information. To address this gap, we propose next-event prediction (NEP), a learning task that harnesses future video segments as a rich, self-supervised signal to foster temporal reasoning. We segment each video into past and future frames: the MLLM takes the past frames as input and predicts a summary of events derived from the future frames, thereby encouraging the model to reason temporally in order to complete the task. To support this task, we curate V1-33K, a dataset comprising 33,000 automatically extracted video segments spanning diverse real-world scenarios. We further explore a range of video instruction-tuning strategies to study their effects on temporal reasoning. To evaluate progress, we introduce FutureBench to assess coherence in predicting unseen future events. Experiments validate that NEP offers a scalable and effective training paradigm for fostering temporal reasoning in MLLMs.

Scientific discovery is a cumulative process and requires new ideas to be situated within an ever-expanding landscape of existing knowledge. An emerging and critical challenge is how to identify conceptually relevant prior work from rapidly growing literature, and assess how a new idea differentiates from existing research. Current embedding approaches typically conflate distinct conceptual aspects into single representations and cannot support fine-grained literature retrieval; meanwhile, LLM-based evaluators are subject to sycophancy biases, failing to provide discriminative novelty assessment. To tackle these challenges, we introduce the Ideation Space, a structured representation that decomposes scientific knowledge into three distinct dimensions, i.e., research problem, methodology, and core findings, each learned through contrastive training. This framework enables principled measurement of conceptual distance between ideas, and modeling of ideation transitions that capture the logical connections within a proposed idea. Building upon this representation, we propose a Hierarchical Sub-Space Retrieval framework for efficient, targeted literature retrieval, and a Decomposed Novelty Assessment algorithm that identifies which aspects of an idea are novel. Extensive experiments demonstrate substantial improvements, where our approach achieves Recall@30 of 0.329 (16.7% over baselines), our ideation transition retrieval reaches Hit Rate@30 of 0.643, and novelty assessment attains 0.37 correlation with expert judgments. In summary, our work provides a promising paradigm for future research on accelerating and evaluating scientific discovery.

Recent unified models for joint understanding and generation have significantly advanced visual generation capabilities. However, their focus on conventional tasks like text-to-video generation has left the temporal reasoning potential of unified models largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce Next Scene Prediction (NSP), a new task that pushes unified video models toward temporal and causal reasoning. Unlike text-to-video generation, NSP requires predicting plausible futures from preceding context, demanding deeper understanding and reasoning. To tackle this task, we propose a unified framework combining Qwen-VL for comprehension and LTX for synthesis, bridged by a latent query embedding and a connector module. This model is trained in three stages on our newly curated, large-scale NSP dataset: text-to-video pre-training, supervised fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning (via GRPO) with our proposed causal consistency reward. Experiments demonstrate our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on our benchmark, advancing the capability of generalist multimodal systems to anticipate what happens next.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

The exponential growth of knowledge and the increasing complexity of interdisciplinary research pose significant challenges for researchers, including information overload and difficulties in exploring novel ideas. The advancements in large language models (LLMs), such as GPT-4, have shown great potential in enhancing idea proposals, but how to effectively utilize large models for reasonable idea proposal has not been thoroughly explored. This paper proposes a scientific paper idea proposer (SciPIP). Based on a user-provided research background, SciPIP retrieves helpful papers from a literature database while leveraging the capabilities of LLMs to generate more novel and feasible ideas. To this end, 1) we construct a literature retrieval database, extracting lots of papers' multi-dimension information for fast access. Then, a literature retrieval method based on semantics, entity, and citation co-occurrences is proposed to search relevant literature from multiple aspects based on the user-provided background. 2) After literature retrieval, we introduce dual-path idea proposal strategies, where one path infers solutions from the retrieved literature and the other path generates original ideas through model brainstorming. We then combine the two to achieve a good balance between feasibility and originality. Through extensive experiments on the natural language processing (NLP) field, we demonstrate that SciPIP can retrieve citations similar to those of existing top conference papers and generate many ideas consistent with them. Additionally, we evaluate the originality of other ideas generated by SciPIP using large language models, further validating the effectiveness of our proposed method. The code and the database are released at https://github.com/cheerss/SciPIP.

Given a video with aligned dialogue, people can often infer what is more likely to happen next. Making such predictions requires not only a deep understanding of the rich dynamics underlying the video and dialogue, but also a significant amount of commonsense knowledge. In this work, we explore whether AI models are able to learn to make such multimodal commonsense next-event predictions. To support research in this direction, we collect a new dataset, named Video-and-Language Event Prediction (VLEP), with 28,726 future event prediction examples (along with their rationales) from 10,234 diverse TV Show and YouTube Lifestyle Vlog video clips. In order to promote the collection of non-trivial challenging examples, we employ an adversarial human-and-model-in-the-loop data collection procedure. We also present a strong baseline incorporating information from video, dialogue, and commonsense knowledge. Experiments show that each type of information is useful for this challenging task, and that compared to the high human performance on VLEP, our model provides a good starting point but leaves large room for future work. Our dataset and code are available at: https://github.com/jayleicn/VideoLanguageFuturePred

Electronic Health Records (EHRs) contain rich temporal dynamics that conventional encoding approaches fail to adequately capture. While Large Language Models (LLMs) show promise for EHR modeling, they struggle to reason about sequential clinical events and temporal dependencies. We propose Next Event Prediction (NEP), a framework that enhances LLMs' temporal reasoning through autoregressive fine-tuning on clinical event sequences. By reformulating EHRs as timestamped event chains and predicting future medical events, NEP explicitly models disease progression patterns and causal relationships. Extensive evaluations across oncology survival prediction and clinical diagnosis tasks demonstrate NEP's superiority, outperforming specialized EHR models by 4.6% AUROC and general-purpose LLMs by 7.2% C-index in temporal reasoning tasks. Our analyses reveal dual benefits: state-of-the-art prediction accuracy combined with clinically interpretable attention patterns that align with known disease pathways.

Large-scale Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized human-AI interaction and achieved significant success in the generation of novel ideas. However, current assessments of idea generation overlook crucial factors such as knowledge leakage in LLMs, the absence of open-ended benchmarks with grounded truth, and the limited scope of feasibility analysis constrained by prompt design. These limitations hinder the potential of uncovering groundbreaking research ideas. In this paper, we present AI Idea Bench 2025, a framework designed to quantitatively evaluate and compare the ideas generated by LLMs within the domain of AI research from diverse perspectives. The framework comprises a comprehensive dataset of 3,495 AI papers and their associated inspired works, along with a robust evaluation methodology. This evaluation system gauges idea quality in two dimensions: alignment with the ground-truth content of the original papers and judgment based on general reference material. AI Idea Bench 2025's benchmarking system stands to be an invaluable resource for assessing and comparing idea-generation techniques, thereby facilitating the automation of scientific discovery.

A patent must be deemed novel and non-obvious in order to be granted by the US Patent Office (USPTO). If it is not, a US patent examiner will cite the prior work, or prior art, that invalidates the novelty and issue a non-final rejection. Predicting what claims of the invention should change given the prior art is an essential and crucial step in securing invention rights, yet has not been studied before as a learnable task. In this work we introduce the PatentEdits dataset, which contains 105K examples of successful revisions that overcome objections to novelty. We design algorithms to label edits sentence by sentence, then establish how well these edits can be predicted with large language models (LLMs). We demonstrate that evaluating textual entailment between cited references and draft sentences is especially effective in predicting which inventive claims remained unchanged or are novel in relation to prior art.

As LLMs become increasingly prevalent, it is interesting to consider how ``creative'' these models can be. From cognitive science, creativity consists of at least two key characteristics: convergent thinking (purposefulness to achieve a given goal) and divergent thinking (adaptability to new environments or constraints) runco2003critical. In this work, we introduce a framework for quantifying LLM creativity that incorporates the two characteristics. This is achieved by (1) Denial Prompting pushes LLMs to come up with more creative solutions to a given problem by incrementally imposing new constraints on the previous solution, compelling LLMs to adopt new strategies, and (2) defining and computing the NeoGauge metric which examines both convergent and divergent thinking in the generated creative responses by LLMs. We apply the proposed framework on Codeforces problems, a natural data source for collecting human coding solutions. We quantify NeoGauge for various proprietary and open-source models and find that even the most creative model, GPT-4, still falls short of demonstrating human-like creativity. We also experiment with advanced reasoning strategies (MCTS, self-correction, etc.) and observe no significant improvement in creativity. As a by-product of our analysis, we release NeoCoder dataset for reproducing our results on future models.

The field of natural language processing (NLP) has witnessed significant progress in recent years, with a notable focus on improving large language models' (LLM) performance through innovative prompting techniques. Among these, prompt engineering coupled with structures has emerged as a promising paradigm, with designs such as Chain-of-Thought, Tree of Thoughts, or Graph of Thoughts, in which the overall LLM reasoning is guided by a structure such as a graph. As illustrated with numerous examples, this paradigm significantly enhances the LLM's capability to solve numerous tasks, ranging from logical or mathematical reasoning to planning or creative writing. To facilitate the understanding of this growing field and pave the way for future developments, we devise a general blueprint for effective and efficient LLM reasoning schemes. For this, we conduct an in-depth analysis of the prompt execution pipeline, clarifying and clearly defining different concepts. We then build the first taxonomy of structure-enhanced LLM reasoning schemes. We focus on identifying fundamental classes of harnessed structures, and we analyze the representations of these structures, algorithms executed with these structures, and many others. We refer to these structures as reasoning topologies, because their representation becomes to a degree spatial, as they are contained within the LLM context. Our study compares existing prompting schemes using the proposed taxonomy, discussing how certain design choices lead to different patterns in performance and cost. We also outline theoretical underpinnings, relationships between prompting and others parts of the LLM ecosystem such as knowledge bases, and the associated research challenges. Our work will help to advance future prompt engineering techniques.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have sparked optimism about their potential to accelerate scientific discovery, with a growing number of works proposing research agents that autonomously generate and validate new ideas. Despite this, no evaluations have shown that LLM systems can take the very first step of producing novel, expert-level ideas, let alone perform the entire research process. We address this by establishing an experimental design that evaluates research idea generation while controlling for confounders and performs the first head-to-head comparison between expert NLP researchers and an LLM ideation agent. By recruiting over 100 NLP researchers to write novel ideas and blind reviews of both LLM and human ideas, we obtain the first statistically significant conclusion on current LLM capabilities for research ideation: we find LLM-generated ideas are judged as more novel (p < 0.05) than human expert ideas while being judged slightly weaker on feasibility. Studying our agent baselines closely, we identify open problems in building and evaluating research agents, including failures of LLM self-evaluation and their lack of diversity in generation. Finally, we acknowledge that human judgements of novelty can be difficult, even by experts, and propose an end-to-end study design which recruits researchers to execute these ideas into full projects, enabling us to study whether these novelty and feasibility judgements result in meaningful differences in research outcome.

Sequential recommendation aims to model dynamic user behavior from historical interactions. Existing methods rely on either explicit item IDs or general textual features for sequence modeling to understand user preferences. While promising, these approaches still struggle to model cold-start items or transfer knowledge to new datasets. In this paper, we propose to model user preferences and item features as language representations that can be generalized to new items and datasets. To this end, we present a novel framework, named Recformer, which effectively learns language representations for sequential recommendation. Specifically, we propose to formulate an item as a "sentence" (word sequence) by flattening item key-value attributes described by text so that an item sequence for a user becomes a sequence of sentences. For recommendation, Recformer is trained to understand the "sentence" sequence and retrieve the next "sentence". To encode item sequences, we design a bi-directional Transformer similar to the model Longformer but with different embedding layers for sequential recommendation. For effective representation learning, we propose novel pretraining and finetuning methods which combine language understanding and recommendation tasks. Therefore, Recformer can effectively recommend the next item based on language representations. Extensive experiments conducted on six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of Recformer for sequential recommendation, especially in low-resource and cold-start settings.

Transformers replace recurrence with a memory that grows with sequence length and self-attention that enables ad-hoc look ups over past tokens. Consequently, they lack an inherent incentive to compress history into compact latent states with consistent transition rules. This often leads to learning solutions that generalize poorly. We introduce Next-Latent Prediction (NextLat), which extends standard next-token training with self-supervised predictions in the latent space. Specifically, NextLat trains a transformer to learn latent representations that are predictive of its next latent state given the next output token. Theoretically, we show that these latents provably converge to belief states, compressed information of the history necessary to predict the future. This simple auxiliary objective also injects a recurrent inductive bias into transformers, while leaving their architecture, parallel training, and inference unchanged. NextLat effectively encourages the transformer to form compact internal world models with its own belief states and transition dynamics -- a crucial property absent in standard next-token prediction transformers. Empirically, across benchmarks targeting core sequence modeling competencies -- world modeling, reasoning, planning, and language modeling -- NextLat demonstrates significant gains over standard next-token training in downstream accuracy, representation compression, and lookahead planning. NextLat stands as a simple and efficient paradigm for shaping transformer representations toward stronger generalization.

We introduce SessionRec, a novel next-session prediction paradigm (NSPP) for generative sequential recommendation, addressing the fundamental misalignment between conventional next-item prediction paradigm (NIPP) and real-world recommendation scenarios. Unlike NIPP's item-level autoregressive generation that contradicts actual session-based user interactions, our framework introduces a session-aware representation learning through hierarchical sequence aggregation (intra/inter-session), reducing attention computation complexity while enabling implicit modeling of massive negative interactions, and a session-based prediction objective that better captures users' diverse interests through multi-item recommendation in next sessions. Moreover, we found that incorporating a rank loss for items within the session under the next session prediction paradigm can significantly improve the ranking effectiveness of generative sequence recommendation models. We also verified that SessionRec exhibits clear power-law scaling laws similar to those observed in LLMs. Extensive experiments conducted on public datasets and online A/B test in Meituan App demonstrate the effectiveness of SessionRec. The proposed paradigm establishes new foundations for developing industrial-scale generative recommendation systems through its model-agnostic architecture and computational efficiency.

The rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) has led to the widespread adoption of AI-powered coding assistants integrated into a development environment. On one hand, low-latency code completion offers completion suggestions but is fundamentally constrained to the cursor's current position. On the other hand, chat-based editing can perform complex modifications, yet forces developers to stop their work, describe the intent in natural language, which causes a context-switch away from the code. This creates a suboptimal user experience, as neither paradigm proactively predicts the developer's next edit in a sequence of related edits. To bridge this gap and provide the seamless code edit suggestion, we introduce the task of Next Edit Prediction, a novel task designed to infer developer intent from recent interaction history to predict both the location and content of the subsequent edit. Specifically, we curate a high-quality supervised fine-tuning dataset and an evaluation benchmark for the Next Edit Prediction task. Then, we conduct supervised fine-tuning on a series of models and performed a comprehensive evaluation of both the fine-tuned models and other baseline models, yielding several novel findings. This work lays the foundation for a new interaction paradigm that proactively collaborate with developers by anticipating their following action, rather than merely reacting to explicit instructions.

Transformers have demonstrated remarkable performance in natural language processing and related domains, as they largely focus on sequential, autoregressive next-token prediction tasks. Yet, they struggle in logical reasoning, not necessarily because of a fundamental limitation of these models, but possibly due to the lack of exploration of more creative uses, such as latent space and recurrent reasoning. An emerging exploration in this direction is the Hierarchical Reasoning Model (Wang et. al., 2025), which introduces a novel type of recurrent reasoning in the latent space of transformers, achieving remarkable performance on a wide range of 2D reasoning tasks. Despite the promising results, this line of models is still at an early stage and calls for in-depth investigation. In this work, we review this class of models, examine key design choices, test alternative variants and clarify common misconceptions.

Building on the foundations of language modeling in natural language processing, Next Token Prediction (NTP) has evolved into a versatile training objective for machine learning tasks across various modalities, achieving considerable success. As Large Language Models (LLMs) have advanced to unify understanding and generation tasks within the textual modality, recent research has shown that tasks from different modalities can also be effectively encapsulated within the NTP framework, transforming the multimodal information into tokens and predict the next one given the context. This survey introduces a comprehensive taxonomy that unifies both understanding and generation within multimodal learning through the lens of NTP. The proposed taxonomy covers five key aspects: Multimodal tokenization, MMNTP model architectures, unified task representation, datasets \& evaluation, and open challenges. This new taxonomy aims to aid researchers in their exploration of multimodal intelligence. An associated GitHub repository collecting the latest papers and repos is available at https://github.com/LMM101/Awesome-Multimodal-Next-Token-Prediction

Detecting salient parts in text using natural language processing has been widely used to mitigate the effects of information overflow. Nevertheless, most of the datasets available for this task are derived mainly from academic publications. We introduce SPACE-IDEAS, a dataset for salient information detection from innovation ideas related to the Space domain. The text in SPACE-IDEAS varies greatly and includes informal, technical, academic and business-oriented writing styles. In addition to a manually annotated dataset we release an extended version that is annotated using a large generative language model. We train different sentence and sequential sentence classifiers, and show that the automatically annotated dataset can be leveraged using multitask learning to train better classifiers.

Humans possess the remarkable ability to foresee the future to a certain extent based on present observations, a skill we term as foresight minds. However, this capability remains largely under explored within existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), hindering their capacity to learn the fundamental principles of how things operate and the intentions behind the observed subjects. To address this issue, we introduce the integration of future modeling into the existing learning frameworks of MLLMs. By utilizing the subject trajectory, a highly structured representation of a consecutive frame sequence, as a learning objective, we aim to bridge the gap between the past and the future. We propose two innovative methods to empower MLLMs with foresight minds, Foresight Pre-Training (FPT) and Foresight Instruction-Tuning (FIT), which are inspired by the modern learning paradigm of LLMs. Specifically, FPT jointly training various tasks centered on trajectories, enabling MLLMs to learn how to attend and predict entire trajectories from a given initial observation. Then, FIT requires MLLMs to first predict trajectories of related objects and then reason about potential future events based on them. Aided by FPT and FIT, we build a novel and unified MLLM named Merlin that supports multi-images input and analysis about potential actions of multiple objects for the future reasoning. Experimental results show Merlin powerful foresight minds with impressive performance on both future reasoning and visual comprehension tasks.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

LLMs have revolutionized the field of artificial intelligence and have emerged as the de-facto tool for many tasks. The current established technology of LLMs is to process input and generate output at the token level. This is in sharp contrast to humans who operate at multiple levels of abstraction, well beyond single words, to analyze information and to generate creative content. In this paper, we present an attempt at an architecture which operates on an explicit higher-level semantic representation, which we name a concept. Concepts are language- and modality-agnostic and represent a higher level idea or action in a flow. Hence, we build a "Large Concept Model". In this study, as proof of feasibility, we assume that a concept corresponds to a sentence, and use an existing sentence embedding space, SONAR, which supports up to 200 languages in both text and speech modalities. The Large Concept Model is trained to perform autoregressive sentence prediction in an embedding space. We explore multiple approaches, namely MSE regression, variants of diffusion-based generation, and models operating in a quantized SONAR space. These explorations are performed using 1.6B parameter models and training data in the order of 1.3T tokens. We then scale one architecture to a model size of 7B parameters and training data of about 2.7T tokens. We perform an experimental evaluation on several generative tasks, namely summarization and a new task of summary expansion. Finally, we show that our model exhibits impressive zero-shot generalization performance to many languages, outperforming existing LLMs of the same size. The training code of our models is freely available.

Next location prediction plays a crucial role in various real-world applications. Recently, due to the limitation of existing deep learning methods, attempts have been made to apply large language models (LLMs) to zero-shot next location prediction task. However, they directly generate the final output using LLMs without systematic design, which limits the potential of LLMs to uncover complex mobility patterns and underestimates their extensive reserve of global geospatial knowledge. In this paper, we introduce AgentMove, a systematic agentic prediction framework to achieve generalized next location prediction. In AgentMove, we first decompose the mobility prediction task and design specific modules to complete them, including spatial-temporal memory for individual mobility pattern mining, world knowledge generator for modeling the effects of urban structure and collective knowledge extractor for capturing the shared patterns among population. Finally, we combine the results of three modules and conduct a reasoning step to generate the final predictions. Extensive experiments utilizing mobility data from two distinct sources reveal that AgentMove surpasses the leading baseline by 3.33% to 8.57% across 8 out of 12 metrics and it shows robust predictions with various LLMs as base and also less geographical bias across cities. Our codes are available via https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/AgentMove.

We design a suite of minimal algorithmic tasks that are a loose abstraction of open-ended real-world tasks. This allows us to cleanly and controllably quantify the creative limits of the present-day language model. Much like real-world tasks that require a creative, far-sighted leap of thought, our tasks require an implicit, open-ended stochastic planning step that either (a) discovers new connections in an abstract knowledge graph (like in wordplay, drawing analogies, or research) or (b) constructs new patterns (like in designing math problems or new proteins). In these tasks, we empirically and conceptually argue how next-token learning is myopic and memorizes excessively; comparatively, multi-token approaches, namely teacherless training and diffusion models, excel in producing diverse and original output. Secondly, in our tasks, we find that to elicit randomness from the Transformer without hurting coherence, it is better to inject noise right at the input layer (via a method we dub hash-conditioning) rather than defer to temperature sampling from the output layer. Thus, our work offers a principled, minimal test-bed for analyzing open-ended creative skills, and offers new arguments for going beyond next-token learning and softmax-based sampling. We make part of the code available under https://github.com/chenwu98/algorithmic-creativity

Forecasting what will happen next is a critical skill for general-purpose systems that plan or act in the world at different levels of abstraction. In this paper, we identify a strong correlation between a vision model's perceptual ability and its generalist forecasting performance over short time horizons. This trend holds across a diverse set of pretrained models-including those trained generatively-and across multiple levels of abstraction, from raw pixels to depth, point tracks, and object motion. The result is made possible by a novel generalist forecasting framework that operates on any frozen vision backbone: we train latent diffusion models to forecast future features in the frozen representation space, which are then decoded via lightweight, task-specific readouts. To enable consistent evaluation across tasks, we introduce distributional metrics that compare distributional properties directly in the space of downstream tasks and apply this framework to nine models and four tasks. Our results highlight the value of bridging representation learning and generative modeling for temporally grounded video understanding.

While next-token prediction is considered a promising path towards artificial general intelligence, it has struggled to excel in multimodal tasks, which are still dominated by diffusion models (e.g., Stable Diffusion) and compositional approaches (e.g., CLIP combined with LLMs). In this paper, we introduce Emu3, a new suite of state-of-the-art multimodal models trained solely with next-token prediction. By tokenizing images, text, and videos into a discrete space, we train a single transformer from scratch on a mixture of multimodal sequences. Emu3 outperforms several well-established task-specific models in both generation and perception tasks, surpassing flagship models such as SDXL and LLaVA-1.6, while eliminating the need for diffusion or compositional architectures. Emu3 is also capable of generating high-fidelity video via predicting the next token in a video sequence. We simplify complex multimodal model designs by converging on a singular focus: tokens, unlocking great potential for scaling both during training and inference. Our results demonstrate that next-token prediction is a promising path towards building general multimodal intelligence beyond language. We open-source key techniques and models to support further research in this direction.

Over the past decade, tremendous progress has been made in Recommender Systems (RecSys) for well-known tasks such as next-item and next-basket prediction. On the other hand, the recently proposed next-period recommendation (NPR) task is not covered as much. Current works about NPR are mostly based around distinct problem formulations, methods, and proprietary datasets, making solutions difficult to reproduce. In this article, we aim to fill the gap in RecSys methods evaluation on the NPR task using publicly available datasets and (1) introduce the TTRS, a large-scale financial transactions dataset suitable for RecSys methods evaluation; (2) benchmark popular RecSys approaches on several datasets for the NPR task. When performing our analysis, we found a strong repetitive consumption pattern in several real-world datasets. With this setup, our results suggest that the repetitive nature of data is still hard to generalize for the evaluated RecSys methods, and novel item prediction performance is still questionable.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

The rapid advancements in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated their potential to accelerate scientific discovery, particularly in automating the process of research ideation. LLM-based systems have shown promise in generating hypotheses and research ideas. However, current approaches predominantly rely on prompting-based pre-trained models, limiting their ability to optimize generated content effectively. Moreover, they also lack the capability to deal with the complex interdependence and inherent restrictions among novelty, feasibility, and effectiveness, which remains challenging due to the inherent trade-offs among these dimensions, such as the innovation-feasibility conflict. To address these limitations, we for the first time propose fine-tuning LLMs to be better idea proposers and introduce a novel framework that employs a two-stage approach combining Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and controllable Reinforcement Learning (RL). In the SFT stage, the model learns foundational patterns from pairs of research papers and follow-up ideas. In the RL stage, multi-dimensional reward modeling, guided by fine-grained feedback, evaluates and optimizes the generated ideas across key metrics. Dimensional controllers enable dynamic adjustment of generation, while a sentence-level decoder ensures context-aware emphasis during inference. Our framework provides a balanced approach to research ideation, achieving high-quality outcomes by dynamically navigating the trade-offs among novelty, feasibility, and effectiveness.

Future link prediction is a fundamental challenge in various real-world dynamic systems. To address this, numerous temporal graph neural networks (temporal GNNs) and benchmark datasets have been developed. However, these datasets often feature excessive repeated edges and lack complex sequential dynamics, a key characteristic inherent in many real-world applications such as recommender systems and ``Who-To-Follow'' on social networks. This oversight has led existing methods to inadvertently downplay the importance of learning sequential dynamics, focusing primarily on predicting repeated edges. In this study, we demonstrate that existing methods, such as GraphMixer and DyGFormer, are inherently incapable of learning simple sequential dynamics, such as ``a user who has followed OpenAI and Anthropic is more likely to follow AI at Meta next.'' Motivated by this issue, we introduce the Temporal Graph Benchmark with Sequential Dynamics (TGB-Seq), a new benchmark carefully curated to minimize repeated edges, challenging models to learn sequential dynamics and generalize to unseen edges. TGB-Seq comprises large real-world datasets spanning diverse domains, including e-commerce interactions, movie ratings, business reviews, social networks, citation networks and web link networks. Benchmarking experiments reveal that current methods usually suffer significant performance degradation and incur substantial training costs on TGB-Seq, posing new challenges and opportunities for future research. TGB-Seq datasets, leaderboards, and example codes are available at https://tgb-seq.github.io/.

We introduce thoughts of words (ToW), a novel training-time data-augmentation method for next-word prediction. ToW views next-word prediction as a core reasoning task and injects fine-grained thoughts explaining what the next word should be and how it is related to the previous contexts in pre-training texts. Our formulation addresses two fundamental drawbacks of existing next-word prediction learning schemes: they induce factual hallucination and are inefficient for models to learn the implicit reasoning processes in raw texts. While there are many ways to acquire such thoughts of words, we explore the first step of acquiring ToW annotations through distilling from larger models. After continual pre-training with only 70K ToW annotations, we effectively improve models' reasoning performances by 7% to 9% on average and reduce model hallucination by up to 10%. At the same time, ToW is entirely agnostic to tasks and applications, introducing no additional biases on labels or semantics.

In this short report, we introduce joint multi-token prediction (JTP), a lightweight modification of standard next-token prediction designed to enrich hidden state representations by jointly predicting multiple future tokens. Unlike previous multi-token prediction approaches, JTP strategically employs teacher forcing of future-tokens through a carefully designed representation bottleneck, allowing the model to encode rich predictive information with minimal computational overhead during training. We show that the JTP approach achieves a short-horizon belief state representation, while popular alternatives for multi-token prediction fail to do so. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on the synthetic star graph navigation task from from Bachmann and Nagarajan [2024], highlighting a significant performance improvement over existing methods. This manuscript presents promising preliminary results intended to stimulate further research.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have transformed how people interact with artificial intelligence (AI) systems, achieving state-of-the-art results in various tasks, including scientific discovery and hypothesis generation. However, the lack of a comprehensive and systematic evaluation framework for generating research ideas using LLMs poses a significant obstacle to understanding and assessing their generative capabilities in scientific discovery. To address this gap, we propose IdeaBench, a benchmark system that includes a comprehensive dataset and an evaluation framework for standardizing the assessment of research idea generation using LLMs. Our dataset comprises titles and abstracts from a diverse range of influential papers, along with their referenced works. To emulate the human process of generating research ideas, we profile LLMs as domain-specific researchers and ground them in the same context considered by human researchers. This maximizes the utilization of the LLMs' parametric knowledge to dynamically generate new research ideas. We also introduce an evaluation framework for assessing the quality of generated research ideas. Our evaluation framework is a two-stage process: first, using GPT-4o to rank ideas based on user-specified quality indicators such as novelty and feasibility, enabling scalable personalization; and second, calculating relative ranking based "Insight Score" to quantify the chosen quality indicator. The proposed benchmark system will be a valuable asset for the community to measure and compare different LLMs, ultimately advancing the automation of the scientific discovery process.

The impact of person-job fit on job satisfaction and performance is widely acknowledged, which highlights the importance of providing workers with next steps at the right time in their career. This task of predicting the next step in a career is known as career path prediction, and has diverse applications such as turnover prevention and internal job mobility. Existing methods to career path prediction rely on large amounts of private career history data to model the interactions between job titles and companies. We propose leveraging the unexplored textual descriptions that are part of work experience sections in resumes. We introduce a structured dataset of 2,164 anonymized career histories, annotated with ESCO occupation labels. Based on this dataset, we present a novel representation learning approach, CareerBERT, specifically designed for work history data. We develop a skill-based model and a text-based model for career path prediction, which achieve 35.24% and 39.61% recall@10 respectively on our dataset. Finally, we show that both approaches are complementary as a hybrid approach achieves the strongest result with 43.01% recall@10.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

The Patent-Based Idea Generation task asks systems to turn real patents into product ideas viable within three years. We propose MK2, a prompt-centric pipeline: Gemini 2.5 drafts and iteratively edits a prompt, grafting useful fragments from weaker outputs; GPT-4.1 then uses this prompt to create one idea per patent, and an Elo loop judged by Qwen3-8B selects the best prompt-all without extra training data. Across three domains, two evaluator types, and six criteria, MK2 topped the automatic leaderboard and won 25 of 36 tests. Only the materials-chemistry track lagged, indicating the need for deeper domain grounding; yet, the results show that lightweight prompt engineering has already delivered competitive, commercially relevant ideation from patents.

The scientific research paradigm is undergoing a profound transformation owing to the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Recent works demonstrate that various AI-assisted research methods can largely improve research efficiency by improving data analysis, accelerating computation, and fostering novel idea generation. To further move towards the ultimate goal (i.e., automatic scientific research), in this paper, we propose Dolphin, the first closed-loop open-ended auto-research framework to further build the entire process of human scientific research. Dolphin can generate research ideas, perform experiments, and get feedback from experimental results to generate higher-quality ideas. More specifically, Dolphin first generates novel ideas based on relevant papers which are ranked by the topic and task attributes. Then, the codes are automatically generated and debugged with the exception-traceback-guided local code structure. Finally, Dolphin automatically analyzes the results of each idea and feeds the results back to the next round of idea generation. Experiments are conducted on the benchmark datasets of different topics and results show that Dolphin can generate novel ideas continuously and complete the experiment in a loop. We highlight that Dolphin can automatically propose methods that are comparable to the state-of-the-art in some tasks such as 2D image classification and 3D point classification.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise in accelerating the scientific research pipeline. A key capability for this process is the ability to generate novel research ideas, and prior studies have found settings in which LLM-generated research ideas were judged as more novel than human-expert ideas. However, a good idea should not simply appear to be novel, it should also result in better research after being executed. To test whether AI-generated ideas lead to better research outcomes, we conduct an execution study by recruiting 43 expert researchers to execute randomly-assigned ideas, either written by experts or generated by an LLM. Each expert spent over 100 hours implementing the idea and wrote a 4-page short paper to document the experiments. All the executed projects are then reviewed blindly by expert NLP researchers. Comparing the review scores of the same ideas before and after execution, the scores of the LLM-generated ideas decrease significantly more than expert-written ideas on all evaluation metrics (novelty, excitement, effectiveness, and overall; p < 0.05), closing the gap between LLM and human ideas observed at the ideation stage. When comparing the aggregated review scores from the execution study, we even observe that for many metrics there is a flip in rankings where human ideas score higher than LLM ideas. This ideation-execution gap highlights the limitations of current LLMs in generating truly effective research ideas and the challenge of evaluating research ideas in the absence of execution outcomes.

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) makes it important to recognize their strengths and limitations. We argue that in order to develop a holistic understanding of these systems we need to consider the problem that they were trained to solve: next-word prediction over Internet text. By recognizing the pressures that this task exerts we can make predictions about the strategies that LLMs will adopt, allowing us to reason about when they will succeed or fail. This approach - which we call the teleological approach - leads us to identify three factors that we hypothesize will influence LLM accuracy: the probability of the task to be performed, the probability of the target output, and the probability of the provided input. We predict that LLMs will achieve higher accuracy when these probabilities are high than when they are low - even in deterministic settings where probability should not matter. To test our predictions, we evaluate two LLMs (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) on eleven tasks, and we find robust evidence that LLMs are influenced by probability in the ways that we have hypothesized. In many cases, the experiments reveal surprising failure modes. For instance, GPT-4's accuracy at decoding a simple cipher is 51% when the output is a high-probability word sequence but only 13% when it is low-probability. These results show that AI practitioners should be careful about using LLMs in low-probability situations. More broadly, we conclude that we should not evaluate LLMs as if they are humans but should instead treat them as a distinct type of system - one that has been shaped by its own particular set of pressures.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Future prediction is a complex task for LLM agents, requiring a high level of analytical thinking, information gathering, contextual understanding, and decision-making under uncertainty. Agents must not only gather and interpret vast amounts of dynamic information but also integrate diverse data sources, weigh uncertainties, and adapt predictions based on emerging trends, just as human experts do in fields like politics, economics, and finance. Despite its importance, no large-scale benchmark exists for evaluating agents on future prediction, largely due to challenges in handling real-time updates and retrieving timely, accurate answers. To address this, we introduce FutureX, a dynamic and live evaluation benchmark specifically designed for LLM agents performing future prediction tasks. FutureX is the largest and most diverse live benchmark for future prediction, supporting real-time daily updates and eliminating data contamination through an automated pipeline for question gathering and answer collection. We evaluate 25 LLM/agent models, including those with reasoning, search capabilities, and integration of external tools such as the open-source Deep Research Agent and closed-source Deep Research models. This comprehensive evaluation assesses agents' adaptive reasoning and performance in dynamic environments. Additionally, we provide in-depth analyses of agents' failure modes and performance pitfalls in future-oriented tasks, including the vulnerability to fake web pages and the temporal validity. Our goal is to establish a dynamic, contamination-free evaluation standard that drives the development of LLM agents capable of performing at the level of professional human analysts in complex reasoning and predictive thinking.

This paper provides an overview of the approach we used as team ISISTANITOS for the ACM RecSys Challenge 2023. The competition was organized by ShareChat, and involved predicting the probability of a user clicking an app ad and/or installing an app, to improve deep funnel optimization and a special focus on user privacy. Our proposed method inferring the probabilities of clicking and installing as two different, but related tasks. Hence, the model engineers a specific set of features for each task and a set of shared features. Our model is called Weighted Multi-Level Feature Factorization because it considers the interaction of different order features, where the order is associated to the depth in a neural network. The prediction for a given task is generated by combining the task specific and shared features on the different levels. Our submission achieved the 11 rank and overall score of 55 in the competition academia-track final results. We release our source code at: https://github.com/knife982000/RecSys2023Challenge

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems, and Large Language Models (LLMs) in particular, are increasingly employed for creative tasks like scientific idea generation, constituting a form of generalization from training data unaddressed by existing conceptual frameworks. Despite its similarities to compositional generalization (CG), combinatorial creativity (CC) is an open-ended ability. Instead of evaluating for accuracy or correctness against fixed targets, which would contradict the open-ended nature of CC, we propose a theoretical framework and algorithmic task for evaluating outputs by their degrees of novelty and utility. From here, we make several important empirical contributions: (1) We obtain the first insights into the scaling behavior of creativity for LLMs. (2) We discover that, for fixed compute budgets, there exist optimal model depths and widths for creative ability. (3) We find that the ideation-execution gap, whereby LLMs excel at generating novel scientific ideas but struggle to ensure their practical feasibility, may be explained by a more fundamental novelty-utility tradeoff characteristic of creativity algorithms in general. Importantly, this tradeoff remains persistent even at scale, casting doubt on the long-term creative potential of LLMs in their current form. Together, our conceptual framework and empirical findings provide a foundation for understanding and improving creativity in modern AI models, bridging the gap between human and machine intelligence.

State-of-the-art solutions in the areas of "Language Modelling & Generating Text", "Speech Recognition", "Generating Image Descriptions" or "Video Tagging" have been using Recurrent Neural Networks as the foundation for their approaches. Understanding the underlying concepts is therefore of tremendous importance if we want to keep up with recent or upcoming publications in those areas. In this work we give a short overview over some of the most important concepts in the realm of Recurrent Neural Networks which enables readers to easily understand the fundamentals such as but not limited to "Backpropagation through Time" or "Long Short-Term Memory Units" as well as some of the more recent advances like the "Attention Mechanism" or "Pointer Networks". We also give recommendations for further reading regarding more complex topics where it is necessary.

A fundamental open challenge in modern LLM scaling is the lack of understanding around emergent capabilities. In particular, language model pretraining loss is known to be highly predictable as a function of compute. However, downstream capabilities are far less predictable -- sometimes even exhibiting emergent jumps -- which makes it challenging to anticipate the capabilities of future models. In this work, we first pose the task of emergence prediction: given access to current LLMs that have random few-shot accuracy on a task, can we predict whether future models (GPT-N+1) will have non-trivial accuracy on that task? We then discover a simple insight for this problem: finetuning LLMs on a given task can shift the point in scaling at which emergence occurs towards less capable models. To operationalize this insight, we can finetune LLMs with varying amounts of data and fit a parametric function that predicts when emergence will occur (i.e., "emergence laws"). We validate this approach using four standard NLP benchmarks where large-scale open-source LLMs already demonstrate emergence (MMLU, GSM8K, CommonsenseQA, and CoLA). Using only small-scale LLMs, we find that, in some cases, we can accurately predict whether models trained with up to 4x more compute have emerged. Finally, we present a case study of two realistic uses for emergence prediction.

Sequential vision-to-language or visual storytelling has recently been one of the areas of focus in computer vision and language modeling domains. Though existing models generate narratives that read subjectively well, there could be cases when these models miss out on generating stories that account and address all prospective human and animal characters in the image sequences. Considering this scenario, we propose a model that implicitly learns relationships between provided characters and thereby generates stories with respective characters in scope. We use the VIST dataset for this purpose and report numerous statistics on the dataset. Eventually, we describe the model, explain the experiment and discuss our current status and future work.

We present a meta-learning framework for learning new visual concepts quickly, from just one or a few examples, guided by multiple naturally occurring data streams: simultaneously looking at images, reading sentences that describe the objects in the scene, and interpreting supplemental sentences that relate the novel concept with other concepts. The learned concepts support downstream applications, such as answering questions by reasoning about unseen images. Our model, namely FALCON, represents individual visual concepts, such as colors and shapes, as axis-aligned boxes in a high-dimensional space (the "box embedding space"). Given an input image and its paired sentence, our model first resolves the referential expression in the sentence and associates the novel concept with particular objects in the scene. Next, our model interprets supplemental sentences to relate the novel concept with other known concepts, such as "X has property Y" or "X is a kind of Y". Finally, it infers an optimal box embedding for the novel concept that jointly 1) maximizes the likelihood of the observed instances in the image, and 2) satisfies the relationships between the novel concepts and the known ones. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our model on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

We propose a simple technique for encouraging generative RNNs to plan ahead. We train a "backward" recurrent network to generate a given sequence in reverse order, and we encourage states of the forward model to predict cotemporal states of the backward model. The backward network is used only during training, and plays no role during sampling or inference. We hypothesize that our approach eases modeling of long-term dependencies by implicitly forcing the forward states to hold information about the longer-term future (as contained in the backward states). We show empirically that our approach achieves 9% relative improvement for a speech recognition task, and achieves significant improvement on a COCO caption generation task.

The rapid advancement in capabilities of large language models (LLMs) raises a pivotal question: How can LLMs accelerate scientific discovery? This work tackles the crucial first stage of research, generating novel hypotheses. While recent work on automated hypothesis generation focuses on multi-agent frameworks and extending test-time compute, none of the approaches effectively incorporate transparency and steerability through a synergistic Human-in-the-loop (HITL) approach. To address this gap, we introduce IRIS: Interactive Research Ideation System, an open-source platform designed for researchers to leverage LLM-assisted scientific ideation. IRIS incorporates innovative features to enhance ideation, including adaptive test-time compute expansion via Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), fine-grained feedback mechanism, and query-based literature synthesis. Designed to empower researchers with greater control and insight throughout the ideation process. We additionally conduct a user study with researchers across diverse disciplines, validating the effectiveness of our system in enhancing ideation. We open-source our code at https://github.com/Anikethh/IRIS-Interactive-Research-Ideation-System

Many existing evaluation benchmarks for Large Language Models (LLMs) quickly become outdated due to the emergence of new models and training data. These benchmarks also fall short in assessing how LLM performance changes over time, as they consist of static questions without a temporal dimension. To address these limitations, we propose using future event prediction as a continuous evaluation method to assess LLMs' temporal generalization and forecasting abilities. Our benchmark, Daily Oracle, automatically generates question-answer (QA) pairs from daily news, challenging LLMs to predict "future" event outcomes. Our findings reveal that as pre-training data becomes outdated, LLM performance degrades over time. While Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) has the potential to enhance prediction accuracy, the performance degradation pattern persists, highlighting the need for continuous model updates.

Human trajectory prediction is a practical task of predicting the future positions of pedestrians on the road, which typically covers all temporal ranges from short-term to long-term within a trajectory. However, existing works attempt to address the entire trajectory prediction with a singular, uniform training paradigm, neglecting the distinction between short-term and long-term dynamics in human trajectories. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a novel Progressive Pretext Task learning (PPT) framework, which progressively enhances the model's capacity of capturing short-term dynamics and long-term dependencies for the final entire trajectory prediction. Specifically, we elaborately design three stages of training tasks in the PPT framework. In the first stage, the model learns to comprehend the short-term dynamics through a stepwise next-position prediction task. In the second stage, the model is further enhanced to understand long-term dependencies through a destination prediction task. In the final stage, the model aims to address the entire future trajectory task by taking full advantage of the knowledge from previous stages. To alleviate the knowledge forgetting, we further apply a cross-task knowledge distillation. Additionally, we design a Transformer-based trajectory predictor, which is able to achieve highly efficient two-step reasoning by integrating a destination-driven prediction strategy and a group of learnable prompt embeddings. Extensive experiments on popular benchmarks have demonstrated that our proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency. Code is available at https://github.com/iSEE-Laboratory/PPT.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

RNN-based methods have faced challenges in the Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) domain when dealing with excessively long look-back windows and forecast horizons. Consequently, the dominance in this domain has shifted towards Transformer, MLP, and CNN approaches. The substantial number of recurrent iterations are the fundamental reasons behind the limitations of RNNs in LTSF. To address these issues, we propose two novel strategies to reduce the number of iterations in RNNs for LTSF tasks: Segment-wise Iterations and Parallel Multi-step Forecasting (PMF). RNNs that combine these strategies, namely SegRNN, significantly reduce the required recurrent iterations for LTSF, resulting in notable improvements in forecast accuracy and inference speed. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SegRNN not only outperforms SOTA Transformer-based models but also reduces runtime and memory usage by more than 78%. These achievements provide strong evidence that RNNs continue to excel in LTSF tasks and encourage further exploration of this domain with more RNN-based approaches. The source code is coming soon.

Large language models (LLMs) have become the cornerstone of modern AI. However, the existing paradigm of next-token prediction fundamentally limits their ability to form coherent, high-level concepts, making it a critical barrier to human-like understanding and reasoning. Take the phrase "ribonucleic acid" as an example: an LLM will first decompose it into tokens, i.e., artificial text fragments ("rib", "on", ...), then learn each token sequentially, rather than grasping the phrase as a unified, coherent semantic entity. This fragmented representation hinders deeper conceptual understanding and, ultimately, the development of truly intelligent systems. In response, we introduce Concept-Aware Fine-Tuning (CAFT), a novel multi-token training method that redefines how LLMs are fine-tuned. By enabling the learning of sequences that span multiple tokens, this method fosters stronger concept-aware learning. Our experiments demonstrate significant improvements compared to conventional next-token finetuning methods across diverse tasks, including traditional applications like text summarization and domain-specific ones like de novo protein design. Multi-token prediction was previously only possible in the prohibitively expensive pretraining phase; CAFT, to our knowledge, is the first to bring the multi-token setting to the post-training phase, thus effectively democratizing its benefits for the broader community of practitioners and researchers. Finally, the unexpected effectiveness of our proposed method suggests wider implications for the machine learning research community. All code and data are available at https://github.com/michaelchen-lab/caft-llm

In the field of sequential recommendation, deep learning (DL)-based methods have received a lot of attention in the past few years and surpassed traditional models such as Markov chain-based and factorization-based ones. However, there is little systematic study on DL-based methods, especially regarding to how to design an effective DL model for sequential recommendation. In this view, this survey focuses on DL-based sequential recommender systems by taking the aforementioned issues into consideration. Specifically,we illustrate the concept of sequential recommendation, propose a categorization of existing algorithms in terms of three types of behavioral sequence, summarize the key factors affecting the performance of DL-based models, and conduct corresponding evaluations to demonstrate the effects of these factors. We conclude this survey by systematically outlining future directions and challenges in this field.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

Data of sequential nature arise in many application domains in forms of, e.g. textual data, DNA sequences, and software execution traces. Different research disciplines have developed methods to learn sequence models from such datasets: (i) in the machine learning field methods such as (hidden) Markov models and recurrent neural networks have been developed and successfully applied to a wide-range of tasks, (ii) in process mining process discovery techniques aim to generate human-interpretable descriptive models, and (iii) in the grammar inference field the focus is on finding descriptive models in the form of formal grammars. Despite their different focuses, these fields share a common goal - learning a model that accurately describes the behavior in the underlying data. Those sequence models are generative, i.e, they can predict what elements are likely to occur after a given unfinished sequence. So far, these fields have developed mainly in isolation from each other and no comparison exists. This paper presents an interdisciplinary experimental evaluation that compares sequence modeling techniques on the task of next-element prediction on four real-life sequence datasets. The results indicate that machine learning techniques that generally have no aim at interpretability in terms of accuracy outperform techniques from the process mining and grammar inference fields that aim to yield interpretable models.

Literature-Based Discovery (LBD) aims to discover new scientific knowledge by mining papers and generating hypotheses. Standard LBD is limited to predicting pairwise relations between discrete concepts (e.g., drug-disease links), and ignores critical contexts like experimental settings (e.g., a specific patient population where a drug is evaluated) and background motivations (e.g., to find drugs without specific side effects). We address these limitations with a novel formulation of contextualized-LBD (C-LBD): generating scientific hypotheses in natural language, while grounding them in a context that controls the hypothesis search space. We present a modeling framework using retrieval of ``inspirations'' from past scientific papers. Our evaluations reveal that GPT-4 tends to generate ideas with overall low technical depth and novelty, while our inspiration prompting approaches partially mitigate this issue. Our work represents a first step toward building language models that generate new ideas derived from scientific literature.

We discovered the underlying physics in Next-token Prediction (NTP). We identified the law of information conservation within NTP and proposed the First Law of Information Capacity (IC-1), demonstrating that the essence of intelligence emergence in auto-regressive models is fundamentally a process of information transfer. We also introduced Landauer's Principle into NTP, formulating the Second Law of Information Capacity (IC-2), which establishes the relationship between auto-regressive model training and energy consumption. Additionally, we presented several corollaries, which hold practical significance for production practices. Finally, we validated the compatibility and complementarity of our findings with existing theories.

Human dialogue contains evolving concepts, and speakers naturally associate multiple concepts to compose a response. However, current dialogue models with the seq2seq framework lack the ability to effectively manage concept transitions and can hardly introduce multiple concepts to responses in a sequential decoding manner. To facilitate a controllable and coherent dialogue, in this work, we devise a concept-guided non-autoregressive model (CG-nAR) for open-domain dialogue generation. The proposed model comprises a multi-concept planning module that learns to identify multiple associated concepts from a concept graph and a customized Insertion Transformer that performs concept-guided non-autoregressive generation to complete a response. The experimental results on two public datasets show that CG-nAR can produce diverse and coherent responses, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines in both automatic and human evaluations with substantially faster inference speed.

Time series forecasting always faces the challenge of concept drift, where data distributions evolve over time, leading to a decline in forecast model performance. Existing solutions are based on online learning, which continually organize recent time series observations as new training samples and update model parameters according to the forecasting feedback on recent data. However, they overlook a critical issue: obtaining ground-truth future values of each sample should be delayed until after the forecast horizon. This delay creates a temporal gap between the training samples and the test sample. Our empirical analysis reveals that the gap can introduce concept drift, causing forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts. In this paper, we present Proceed, a novel proactive model adaptation framework for online time series forecasting. Proceed first estimates the concept drift between the recently used training samples and the current test sample. It then employs an adaptation generator to efficiently translate the estimated drift into parameter adjustments, proactively adapting the model to the test sample. To enhance the generalization capability of the framework, Proceed is trained on synthetic diverse concept drifts. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets across various forecast models demonstrate that Proceed brings more performance improvements than the state-of-the-art online learning methods, significantly facilitating forecast models' resilience against concept drifts. Code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DMTai/OnlineTSF.

This paper presents a new sequence-to-sequence pre-training model called ProphetNet, which introduces a novel self-supervised objective named future n-gram prediction and the proposed n-stream self-attention mechanism. Instead of optimizing one-step-ahead prediction in the traditional sequence-to-sequence model, the ProphetNet is optimized by n-step ahead prediction that predicts the next n tokens simultaneously based on previous context tokens at each time step. The future n-gram prediction explicitly encourages the model to plan for the future tokens and prevent overfitting on strong local correlations. We pre-train ProphetNet using a base scale dataset (16GB) and a large-scale dataset (160GB), respectively. Then we conduct experiments on CNN/DailyMail, Gigaword, and SQuAD 1.1 benchmarks for abstractive summarization and question generation tasks. Experimental results show that ProphetNet achieves new state-of-the-art results on all these datasets compared to the models using the same scale pre-training corpus.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Integer sequences are of central importance to the modeling of concepts admitting complete finitary descriptions. We introduce a novel view on the learning of such concepts and lay down a set of benchmarking tasks aimed at conceptual understanding by machine learning models. These tasks indirectly assess model ability to abstract, and challenge them to reason both interpolatively and extrapolatively from the knowledge gained by observing representative examples. To further aid research in knowledge representation and reasoning, we present FACT, the Finitary Abstraction Comprehension Toolkit. The toolkit surrounds a large dataset of integer sequences comprising both organic and synthetic entries, a library for data pre-processing and generation, a set of model performance evaluation tools, and a collection of baseline model implementations, enabling the making of the future advancements with ease.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown prominent performance in various downstream tasks and prompt engineering plays a pivotal role in optimizing LLMs' performance. This paper, not only as an overview of current prompt engineering methods, but also aims to highlight the limitation of designing prompts based on an anthropomorphic assumption that expects LLMs to think like humans. From our review of 50 representative studies, we demonstrate that a goal-oriented prompt formulation, which guides LLMs to follow established human logical thinking, significantly improves the performance of LLMs. Furthermore, We introduce a novel taxonomy that categorizes goal-oriented prompting methods into five interconnected stages and we demonstrate the broad applicability of our framework. With four future directions proposed, we hope to further emphasize the power and potential of goal-oriented prompt engineering in all fields.

The problem of Novel Class Discovery (NCD) consists in extracting knowledge from a labeled set of known classes to accurately partition an unlabeled set of novel classes. While NCD has recently received a lot of attention from the community, it is often solved on computer vision problems and under unrealistic conditions. In particular, the number of novel classes is usually assumed to be known in advance, and their labels are sometimes used to tune hyperparameters. Methods that rely on these assumptions are not applicable in real-world scenarios. In this work, we focus on solving NCD in tabular data when no prior knowledge of the novel classes is available. To this end, we propose to tune the hyperparameters of NCD methods by adapting the k-fold cross-validation process and hiding some of the known classes in each fold. Since we have found that methods with too many hyperparameters are likely to overfit these hidden classes, we define a simple deep NCD model. This method is composed of only the essential elements necessary for the NCD problem and performs impressively well under realistic conditions. Furthermore, we find that the latent space of this method can be used to reliably estimate the number of novel classes. Additionally, we adapt two unsupervised clustering algorithms (k-means and Spectral Clustering) to leverage the knowledge of the known classes. Extensive experiments are conducted on 7 tabular datasets and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and hyperparameter tuning process, and show that the NCD problem can be solved without relying on knowledge from the novel classes.

This analysis explores the temporal sequencing of objects in a movie trailer. Temporal sequencing of objects in a movie trailer (e.g., a long shot of an object vs intermittent short shots) can convey information about the type of movie, plot of the movie, role of the main characters, and the filmmakers cinematographic choices. When combined with historical customer data, sequencing analysis can be used to improve predictions of customer behavior. E.g., a customer buys tickets to a new movie and maybe the customer has seen movies in the past that contained similar sequences. To explore object sequencing in movie trailers, we propose a video convolutional network to capture actions and scenes that are predictive of customers' preferences. The model learns the specific nature of sequences for different types of objects (e.g., cars vs faces), and the role of sequences in predicting customer future behavior. We show how such a temporal-aware model outperforms simple feature pooling methods proposed in our previous works and, importantly, demonstrate the additional model explain-ability allowed by such a model.

Autoregressive language models are constrained by their inherently sequential nature, generating one token at a time. This paradigm limits inference speed and parallelism, especially during later stages of generation when the direction and semantics of text are relatively certain. In this work, we propose a novel framework that leverages the inherent knowledge of vanilla autoregressive language models about future tokens, combining techniques to realize this potential and enable simultaneous prediction of multiple subsequent tokens. Our approach introduces several key innovations: (1) a masked-input formulation where multiple future tokens are jointly predicted from a common prefix; (2) a gated LoRA formulation that preserves the original LLM's functionality, while equipping it for multi-token prediction; (3) a lightweight, learnable sampler module that generates coherent sequences from the predicted future tokens; (4) a set of auxiliary training losses, including a consistency loss, to enhance the coherence and accuracy of jointly generated tokens; and (5) a speculative generation strategy that expands tokens quadratically in the future while maintaining high fidelity. Our method achieves significant speedups through supervised fine-tuning on pretrained models. For example, it generates code and math nearly 5x faster, and improves general chat and knowledge tasks by almost 2.5x. These gains come without any loss in quality.

The next Point of Interest (POI) recommendation task is to predict users' immediate next POI visit given their historical data. Location-Based Social Network (LBSN) data, which is often used for the next POI recommendation task, comes with challenges. One frequently disregarded challenge is how to effectively use the abundant contextual information present in LBSN data. Previous methods are limited by their numerical nature and fail to address this challenge. In this paper, we propose a framework that uses pretrained Large Language Models (LLMs) to tackle this challenge. Our framework allows us to preserve heterogeneous LBSN data in its original format, hence avoiding the loss of contextual information. Furthermore, our framework is capable of comprehending the inherent meaning of contextual information due to the inclusion of commonsense knowledge. In experiments, we test our framework on three real-world LBSN datasets. Our results show that the proposed framework outperforms the state-of-the-art models in all three datasets. Our analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed framework in using contextual information as well as alleviating the commonly encountered cold-start and short trajectory problems.

Current literature, aiming to surpass the "Chain-of-Thought" approach, often resorts to an external modus operandi involving halting, modifying, and then resuming the generation process to boost Large Language Models' (LLMs) reasoning capacities. This mode escalates the number of query requests, leading to increased costs, memory, and computational overheads. Addressing this, we propose the Algorithm of Thoughts -- a novel strategy that propels LLMs through algorithmic reasoning pathways, pioneering a new mode of in-context learning. By employing algorithmic examples, we exploit the innate recurrence dynamics of LLMs, expanding their idea exploration with merely one or a few queries. Our technique outperforms earlier single-query methods and stands on par with a recent multi-query strategy that employs an extensive tree search algorithm. Intriguingly, our results suggest that instructing an LLM using an algorithm can lead to performance surpassing that of the algorithm itself, hinting at LLM's inherent ability to weave its intuition into optimized searches. We probe into the underpinnings of our method's efficacy and its nuances in application.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

The concept of world models has garnered significant attention due to advancements in multimodal large language models such as GPT-4 and video generation models such as Sora, which are central to the pursuit of artificial general intelligence. This survey offers a comprehensive review of the literature on world models. Generally, world models are regarded as tools for either understanding the present state of the world or predicting its future dynamics. This review presents a systematic categorization of world models, emphasizing two primary functions: (1) constructing internal representations to understand the mechanisms of the world, and (2) predicting future states to simulate and guide decision-making. Initially, we examine the current progress in these two categories. We then explore the application of world models in key domains, including generative games, autonomous driving, robotics, and social simulacra, with a focus on how each domain utilizes these aspects. Finally, we outline key challenges and provide insights into potential future research directions. We summarize the representative papers along with their code repositories in https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/World-Model.

Adaptive behavior often requires predicting future events. The theory of reinforcement learning prescribes what kinds of predictive representations are useful and how to compute them. This paper integrates these theoretical ideas with work on cognition and neuroscience. We pay special attention to the successor representation (SR) and its generalizations, which have been widely applied both as engineering tools and models of brain function. This convergence suggests that particular kinds of predictive representations may function as versatile building blocks of intelligence.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is typically concerned with estimating stationary policies or single-step models, leveraging the Markov property to factorize problems in time. However, we can also view RL as a generic sequence modeling problem, with the goal being to produce a sequence of actions that leads to a sequence of high rewards. Viewed in this way, it is tempting to consider whether high-capacity sequence prediction models that work well in other domains, such as natural-language processing, can also provide effective solutions to the RL problem. To this end, we explore how RL can be tackled with the tools of sequence modeling, using a Transformer architecture to model distributions over trajectories and repurposing beam search as a planning algorithm. Framing RL as sequence modeling problem simplifies a range of design decisions, allowing us to dispense with many of the components common in offline RL algorithms. We demonstrate the flexibility of this approach across long-horizon dynamics prediction, imitation learning, goal-conditioned RL, and offline RL. Further, we show that this approach can be combined with existing model-free algorithms to yield a state-of-the-art planner in sparse-reward, long-horizon tasks.

Despite their remarkable success in language modeling, transformers trained to predict the next token in a sequence struggle with long-term planning. This limitation is particularly evident in tasks requiring foresight to plan multiple steps ahead such as maze navigation. The standard next single token prediction objective, however, offers no explicit mechanism to predict multiple steps ahead - or revisit the path taken so far. Consequently, in this work we study whether explicitly predicting multiple steps ahead (and backwards) can improve transformers' maze navigation. We train parameter-matched transformers from scratch, under identical settings, to navigate mazes of varying types and sizes with standard next token prediction and MLM-U, an objective explicitly predicting multiple steps ahead and backwards. We find that MLM-U considerably improves transformers' ability to navigate mazes compared to standard next token prediction across maze types and complexities. We also find MLM-U training is 4x more sample efficient and converges 2x faster in terms of GPU training hours relative to next token training. Finally, for more complex mazes we find MLM-U benefits from scaling to larger transformers. Remarkably, we find transformers trained with MLM-U outperform larger transformers trained with next token prediction using additional supervision from A* search traces. We hope these findings underscore the promise of learning objectives to advance transformers' capacity for long-term planning.

We present an online method for estimating the cost of solving SAT problems. Modern SAT solvers present several challenges to estimate search cost including non-chronological backtracking, learning and restarts. Our method uses a linear model trained on data gathered at the start of search. We show the effectiveness of this method using random and structured problems. We demonstrate that predictions made in early restarts can be used to improve later predictions. We also show that we can use such cost estimations to select a solver from a portfolio.

We study the new task of class-incremental Novel Class Discovery (class-iNCD), which refers to the problem of discovering novel categories in an unlabelled data set by leveraging a pre-trained model that has been trained on a labelled data set containing disjoint yet related categories. Apart from discovering novel classes, we also aim at preserving the ability of the model to recognize previously seen base categories. Inspired by rehearsal-based incremental learning methods, in this paper we propose a novel approach for class-iNCD which prevents forgetting of past information about the base classes by jointly exploiting base class feature prototypes and feature-level knowledge distillation. We also propose a self-training clustering strategy that simultaneously clusters novel categories and trains a joint classifier for both the base and novel classes. This makes our method able to operate in a class-incremental setting. Our experiments, conducted on three common benchmarks, demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches. Code is available at https://github.com/OatmealLiu/class-iNCD

Planning with world models offers a powerful paradigm for robotic control. Conventional approaches train a model to predict future frames conditioned on current frames and actions, which can then be used for planning. However, the objective of predicting future pixels is often at odds with the actual planning objective; strong pixel reconstruction does not always correlate with good planning decisions. This paper posits that instead of reconstructing future frames as pixels, world models only need to predict task-relevant semantic information about the future. For such prediction the paper poses world modeling as a visual question answering problem about semantic information in future frames. This perspective allows world modeling to be approached with the same tools underlying vision language models. Thus vision language models can be trained as "semantic" world models through a supervised finetuning process on image-action-text data, enabling planning for decision-making while inheriting many of the generalization and robustness properties from the pretrained vision-language models. The paper demonstrates how such a semantic world model can be used for policy improvement on open-ended robotics tasks, leading to significant generalization improvements over typical paradigms of reconstruction-based action-conditional world modeling. Website available at https://weirdlabuw.github.io/swm.

Sequential recommendation aims to predict the next item a user is likely to prefer based on their sequential interaction history. Recently, text-based sequential recommendation has emerged as a promising paradigm that uses pre-trained language models to exploit textual item features to enhance performance and facilitate knowledge transfer to unseen datasets. However, existing text-based recommender models still struggle with two key challenges: (i) representing users and items with multiple attributes, and (ii) matching items with complex user interests. To address these challenges, we propose a novel model, Matching Attribute-aware Representations for Text-based Sequential Recommendation (MARS). MARS extracts detailed user and item representations through attribute-aware text encoding, capturing diverse user intents with multiple attribute-aware representations. It then computes user-item scores via attribute-wise interaction matching, effectively capturing attribute-level user preferences. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that MARS significantly outperforms existing sequential models, achieving improvements of up to 24.43% and 29.26% in Recall@10 and NDCG@10 across five benchmark datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/junieberry/MARS

Language models have made significant progress in generating coherent text and predicting next tokens based on input prompts. This study compares the next-token prediction performance of two well-known models: OpenAI's GPT-2 and Meta's Llama-2-7b-chat-hf on Theory of Mind (ToM) tasks. To evaluate their capabilities, we built a dataset from 10 short stories sourced from the Explore ToM Dataset. We enhanced these stories by programmatically inserting additional sentences (infills) using GPT-4, creating variations that introduce different levels of contextual complexity. This setup enables analysis of how increasing context affects model performance. We tested both models under four temperature settings (0.01, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0) and evaluated their ability to predict the next token across three reasoning levels. Zero-order reasoning involves tracking the state, either current (ground truth) or past (memory). First-order reasoning concerns understanding another's mental state (e.g., "Does Anne know the apple is salted?"). Second-order reasoning adds recursion (e.g., "Does Anne think that Charles knows the apple is salted?"). Our results show that adding more infill sentences slightly reduces prediction accuracy, as added context increases complexity and ambiguity. Llama-2 consistently outperforms GPT-2 in prediction accuracy, especially at lower temperatures, demonstrating greater confidence in selecting the most probable token. As reasoning complexity rises, model responses diverge more. Notably, GPT-2 and Llama-2 display greater variability in predictions during first- and second-order reasoning tasks. These findings illustrate how model architecture, temperature, and contextual complexity influence next-token prediction, contributing to a better understanding of the strengths and limitations of current language models.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in generating novel research ideas. However, these ideas often face challenges related to feasibility and expected effectiveness. This paper explores how augmenting LLMs with relevant data during the idea generation process can enhance the quality of generated ideas. We introduce two ways of incorporating data: (1) providing metadata during the idea generation stage to guide LLMs toward feasible directions, and (2) adding automatic validation during the idea selection stage to assess the empirical plausibility of hypotheses within ideas. We conduct experiments in the social science domain, specifically with climate negotiation topics, and find that metadata improves the feasibility of generated ideas by 20%, while automatic validation improves the overall quality of selected ideas by 7%. A human study shows that LLM-generated ideas, along with their related data and validation processes, inspire researchers to propose research ideas with higher quality. Our work highlights the potential of data-driven research idea generation, and underscores the practical utility of LLM-assisted ideation in real-world academic settings.

Language models such as GPT-2 have performed well on constructing syntactically sound sentences for text auto-completion task. However, such models often require considerable training effort to adapt to specific writing domains (e.g., medical). In this paper, we propose an intermediate training strategy to enhance pre-trained language models' performance in the text auto-completion task and fastly adapt them to specific domains. Our strategy includes a novel self-supervised training objective called Next Phrase Prediction (NPP), which encourages a language model to complete the partial query with enriched phrases and eventually improve the model's text auto-completion performance. Preliminary experiments have shown that our approach is able to outperform the baselines in auto-completion for email and academic writing domains.

The rapid evolution of Large Language Models has catalyzed a surge in scientific idea production, yet this leap has not been accompanied by a matching advance in idea evaluation. The fundamental nature of scientific evaluation needs knowledgeable grounding, collective deliberation, and multi-criteria decision-making. However, existing idea evaluation methods often suffer from narrow knowledge horizons, flattened evaluation dimensions, and the inherent bias in LLM-as-a-Judge. To address these, we regard idea evaluation as a knowledge-grounded, multi-perspective reasoning problem and introduce InnoEval, a deep innovation evaluation framework designed to emulate human-level idea assessment. We apply a heterogeneous deep knowledge search engine that retrieves and grounds dynamic evidence from diverse online sources. We further achieve review consensus with an innovation review board containing reviewers with distinct academic backgrounds, enabling a multi-dimensional decoupled evaluation across multiple metrics. We construct comprehensive datasets derived from authoritative peer-reviewed submissions to benchmark InnoEval. Experiments demonstrate that InnoEval can consistently outperform baselines in point-wise, pair-wise, and group-wise evaluation tasks, exhibiting judgment patterns and consensus highly aligned with human experts.

Recent works have argued that high-level semantic concepts are encoded "linearly" in the representation space of large language models. In this work, we study the origins of such linear representations. To that end, we introduce a simple latent variable model to abstract and formalize the concept dynamics of the next token prediction. We use this formalism to show that the next token prediction objective (softmax with cross-entropy) and the implicit bias of gradient descent together promote the linear representation of concepts. Experiments show that linear representations emerge when learning from data matching the latent variable model, confirming that this simple structure already suffices to yield linear representations. We additionally confirm some predictions of the theory using the LLaMA-2 large language model, giving evidence that the simplified model yields generalizable insights.

We demonstrate and investigate the remarkable robustness of Large Language Models by deleting and swapping adjacent layers. We find that deleting and swapping interventions retain 72-95\% of the original model's prediction accuracy without fine-tuning, whereas models with more layers exhibit more robustness. Based on the results of the layer-wise intervention and further experiments, we hypothesize the existence of four universal stages of inference across eight different models: detokenization, feature engineering, prediction ensembling, and residual sharpening. The first stage integrates local information, lifting raw token representations into higher-level contextual representations. Next is the iterative refinement of task and entity-specific features. Then, the second half of the model begins with a phase transition, where hidden representations align more with the vocabulary space due to specialized model components. Finally, the last layer sharpens the following token distribution by eliminating obsolete features that add noise to the prediction.

Recent text-to-image generative models have enabled us to transform our words into vibrant, captivating imagery. The surge of personalization techniques that has followed has also allowed us to imagine unique concepts in new scenes. However, an intriguing question remains: How can we generate a new, imaginary concept that has never been seen before? In this paper, we present the task of creative text-to-image generation, where we seek to generate new members of a broad category (e.g., generating a pet that differs from all existing pets). We leverage the under-studied Diffusion Prior models and show that the creative generation problem can be formulated as an optimization process over the output space of the diffusion prior, resulting in a set of "prior constraints". To keep our generated concept from converging into existing members, we incorporate a question-answering model that adaptively adds new constraints to the optimization problem, encouraging the model to discover increasingly more unique creations. Finally, we show that our prior constraints can also serve as a strong mixing mechanism allowing us to create hybrids between generated concepts, introducing even more flexibility into the creative process.

Language models generate responses by producing a series of tokens in immediate succession: the (K+1)^{th} token is an outcome of manipulating K hidden vectors per layer, one vector per preceding token. What if instead we were to let the model manipulate say, K+10 hidden vectors, before it outputs the (K+1)^{th} token? We operationalize this idea by performing training and inference on language models with a (learnable) pause token, a sequence of which is appended to the input prefix. We then delay extracting the model's outputs until the last pause token is seen, thereby allowing the model to process extra computation before committing to an answer. We empirically evaluate pause-training on decoder-only models of 1B and 130M parameters with causal pretraining on C4, and on downstream tasks covering reasoning, question-answering, general understanding and fact recall. Our main finding is that inference-time delays show gains when the model is both pre-trained and finetuned with delays. For the 1B model, we witness gains on 8 of 9 tasks, most prominently, a gain of 18% EM score on the QA task of SQuAD, 8% on CommonSenseQA and 1% accuracy on the reasoning task of GSM8k. Our work raises a range of conceptual and practical future research questions on making delayed next-token prediction a widely applicable new paradigm.

Transformers have become the de-facto standard model in artificial intelligence since 2017 despite numerous shortcomings ranging from energy inefficiency to hallucinations. Research has made a lot of progress in improving elements of transformers, and, more generally, deep learning manifesting in many proposals for architectures, layers, optimization objectives, and optimization techniques. For researchers it is difficult to keep track of such developments on a broader level. We provide a comprehensive overview of the many important, recent works in these areas to those who already have a basic understanding of deep learning. Our focus differs from other works, as we target specifically novel, alternative potentially disruptive approaches to transformers as well as successful ideas of recent deep learning. We hope that such a holistic and unified treatment of influential, recent works and novel ideas helps researchers to form new connections between diverse areas of deep learning. We identify and discuss multiple patterns that summarize the key strategies for successful innovations over the last decade as well as works that can be seen as rising stars. Especially, we discuss attempts on how to improve on transformers covering (partially) proven methods such as state space models but also including far-out ideas in deep learning that seem promising despite not achieving state-of-the-art results. We also cover a discussion on recent state-of-the-art models such as OpenAI's GPT series and Meta's LLama models and, Google's Gemini model family.

Scientific idea generation lies at the heart of scientific discovery and has driven human progress-whether by solving unsolved problems or proposing novel hypotheses to explain unknown phenomena. Unlike standard scientific reasoning or general creative generation, idea generation in science is a multi-objective and open-ended task, where the novelty of a contribution is as essential as its empirical soundness. Large language models (LLMs) have recently emerged as promising generators of scientific ideas, capable of producing coherent and factual outputs with surprising intuition and acceptable reasoning, yet their creative capacity remains inconsistent and poorly understood. This survey provides a structured synthesis of methods for LLM-driven scientific ideation, examining how different approaches balance creativity with scientific soundness. We categorize existing methods into five complementary families: External knowledge augmentation, Prompt-based distributional steering, Inference-time scaling, Multi-agent collaboration, and Parameter-level adaptation. To interpret their contributions, we employ two complementary frameworks: Boden's taxonomy of Combinatorial, Exploratory and Transformational creativity to characterize the level of ideas each family expected to generate, and Rhodes' 4Ps framework-Person, Process, Press, and Product-to locate the aspect or source of creativity that each method emphasizes. By aligning methodological advances with creativity frameworks, this survey clarifies the state of the field and outlines key directions toward reliable, systematic, and transformative applications of LLMs in scientific discovery.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Modeling users' dynamic and evolving preferences from their historical behaviors is challenging and crucial for recommendation systems. Previous methods employ sequential neural networks (e.g., Recurrent Neural Network) to encode users' historical interactions from left to right into hidden representations for making recommendations. Although these methods achieve satisfactory results, they often assume a rigidly ordered sequence which is not always practical. We argue that such left-to-right unidirectional architectures restrict the power of the historical sequence representations. For this purpose, we introduce a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers for sequential Recommendation (BERT4Rec). However, jointly conditioning on both left and right context in deep bidirectional model would make the training become trivial since each item can indirectly "see the target item". To address this problem, we train the bidirectional model using the Cloze task, predicting the masked items in the sequence by jointly conditioning on their left and right context. Comparing with predicting the next item at each position in a sequence, the Cloze task can produce more samples to train a more powerful bidirectional model. Extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets show that our model outperforms various state-of-the-art sequential models consistently.

There is a growing interest in the area of machine learning and creativity. This survey presents an overview of the history and the state of the art of computational creativity theories, key machine learning techniques (including generative deep learning), and corresponding automatic evaluation methods. After presenting a critical discussion of the key contributions in this area, we outline the current research challenges and emerging opportunities in this field.

Large language models such as GPT and Llama are trained with a next-token prediction loss. In this work, we suggest that training language models to predict multiple future tokens at once results in higher sample efficiency. More specifically, at each position in the training corpus, we ask the model to predict the following n tokens using n independent output heads, operating on top of a shared model trunk. Considering multi-token prediction as an auxiliary training task, we measure improved downstream capabilities with no overhead in training time for both code and natural language models. The method is increasingly useful for larger model sizes, and keeps its appeal when training for multiple epochs. Gains are especially pronounced on generative benchmarks like coding, where our models consistently outperform strong baselines by several percentage points. Our 13B parameter models solves 12 % more problems on HumanEval and 17 % more on MBPP than comparable next-token models. Experiments on small algorithmic tasks demonstrate that multi-token prediction is favorable for the development of induction heads and algorithmic reasoning capabilities. As an additional benefit, models trained with 4-token prediction are up to 3 times faster at inference, even with large batch sizes.

A Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) was used to perform video frame prediction of microbial growth for a population of two mutants of Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The RNN was trained on videos of 20 frames that were acquired using fluorescence microscopy and microfluidics. The network predicted the last 10 frames of each video, and the accuracy's of the predictions was assessed by comparing raw images, population curves, and the number and size of individual colonies. Overall, we found the predictions to be accurate using this approach. The implications this result has on designing autonomous experiments in microbiology, and the steps that can be taken to make the predictions even more accurate, are discussed.

Deep Learning based models are currently dominating most state-of-the-art solutions for disease prediction. Existing works employ RNNs along with multiple levels of attention mechanisms to provide interpretability. These deep learning models, with trainable parameters running into millions, require huge amounts of compute and data to train and deploy. These requirements are sometimes so huge that they render usage of such models as unfeasible. We address these challenges by developing a simpler yet interpretable non-deep learning based model for application to EHR data. We model and showcase our work's results on the task of predicting first occurrence of a diagnosis, often overlooked in existing works. We push the capabilities of a tree based model and come up with a strong baseline for more sophisticated models. Its performance shows an improvement over deep learning based solutions (both, with and without the first-occurrence constraint) all the while maintaining interpretability.

Interdisciplinary scientific breakthroughs mostly emerge unexpectedly, and forecasting the formation of novel research fields remains a major challenge. We introduce FOS (Future Of Science), a comprehensive time-aware graph-based benchmark that reconstructs annual co-occurrence graphs of 65,027 research sub-fields (spanning 19 general domains) over the period 1827-2024. In these graphs, edges denote the co-occurrence of two fields in a single publication and are timestamped with the corresponding publication year. Nodes are enriched with semantic embeddings, and edges are characterized by temporal and topological descriptors. We formulate the prediction of new field-pair linkages as a temporal link-prediction task, emphasizing the "first-time" connections that signify pioneering interdisciplinary directions. Through extensive experiments, we evaluate a suite of state-of-the-art temporal graph architectures under multiple negative-sampling regimes and show that (i) embedding long-form textual descriptions of fields significantly boosts prediction accuracy, and (ii) distinct model classes excel under different evaluation settings. Case analyses show that top-ranked link predictions on FOS align with field pairings that emerge in subsequent years of academic publications. We publicly release FOS, along with its temporal data splits and evaluation code, to establish a reproducible benchmark for advancing research in predicting scientific frontiers.

With the prosperity of e-commerce and web applications, Recommender Systems (RecSys) have become an important component of our daily life, providing personalized suggestions that cater to user preferences. While Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have made significant advancements in enhancing recommender systems by modeling user-item interactions and incorporating textual side information, DNN-based methods still face limitations, such as difficulties in understanding users' interests and capturing textual side information, inabilities in generalizing to various recommendation scenarios and reasoning on their predictions, etc. Meanwhile, the emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT and GPT4, has revolutionized the fields of Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Artificial Intelligence (AI), due to their remarkable abilities in fundamental responsibilities of language understanding and generation, as well as impressive generalization and reasoning capabilities. As a result, recent studies have attempted to harness the power of LLMs to enhance recommender systems. Given the rapid evolution of this research direction in recommender systems, there is a pressing need for a systematic overview that summarizes existing LLM-empowered recommender systems, to provide researchers in relevant fields with an in-depth understanding. Therefore, in this paper, we conduct a comprehensive review of LLM-empowered recommender systems from various aspects including Pre-training, Fine-tuning, and Prompting. More specifically, we first introduce representative methods to harness the power of LLMs (as a feature encoder) for learning representations of users and items. Then, we review recent techniques of LLMs for enhancing recommender systems from three paradigms, namely pre-training, fine-tuning, and prompting. Finally, we comprehensively discuss future directions in this emerging field.

Next token prediction paradigm has been prevailing for autoregressive models in the era of LLMs. The current default sampling choice for popular LLMs is temperature scaling together with nucleus sampling to balance diversity and coherence. Nevertheless, such approach leads to inferior performance in various NLP tasks when the model is not certain about testing questions. To this end, we propose a brand new training-free decoding strategy, dubbed as Cautious Next Token Prediction (CNTP). In the decoding process, if the model has comparatively high prediction entropy at a certain step, we sample multiple trials starting from the step independently and stop when encountering any punctuation. Then we select the trial with the lowest perplexity score viewed as the most probable and reliable trial path given the model's capacity. The trial number is negatively correlated with the prediction confidence, i.e., the less confident the model is, the more trials it should sample. This is consistent with human beings' behaviour: when feeling uncertain or unconfident, one tends to think more creatively, exploring multiple thinking paths, to cautiously select the path one feels most confident about. Extensive experiments on both LLMs and MLLMs show that our proposed CNTP approach outperforms existing standard decoding strategies consistently by a clear margin. Moreover, the integration of CNTP with self consistency can further improve over vanilla self consistency. We believe our proposed CNTP has the potential to become one of the default choices for LLM decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/wyzjack/CNTP.

Causal decoder-only transformer models used for generative language modelling, such as Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPT), are trained to predict the next token in a sequence based only on its previous tokens. Despite this simple training objective, they have proved to be powerful AI tools. However, only predicting the next token results in top layer embedding vectors that are highly token-focused. There may be benefits in generating embedding vectors at each token position that better capture the overall meaning of longer sequences of future text. Recent studies matching brain scans with deep language models suggest that humans also predict upcoming words when listening or reading but consider multiple future tokens rather than just one. This research investigates a new pretraining method called Future Token Prediction (FTP). In FTP, a large transformer encoder generates top layer embedding vectors for each token position, which, instead of being passed to a language head, are linearly and expansively projected to a pseudo-sequence, which is cross attended to by a small transformer decoder to predict the next N tokens forward from that position in the sequence. The top layer embedding vectors from FTP models exhibit distinct properties compared to those from standard GPT models, varying smoothly along a text sequence as measured by cosine similarity between adjacent tokens. Text generated by FTP models show improved topic coherence compared to standard GPT-like models trained with the same prediction perplexity for the next single token. The vectors are shown to better represent the topic of text based on the results of text classification examples. On a toy, but complex, coding problem, FTP networks produce significantly better results than GPT networks.

We conjecture that hidden state vectors corresponding to individual input tokens encode information sufficient to accurately predict several tokens ahead. More concretely, in this paper we ask: Given a hidden (internal) representation of a single token at position t in an input, can we reliably anticipate the tokens that will appear at positions geq t + 2? To test this, we measure linear approximation and causal intervention methods in GPT-J-6B to evaluate the degree to which individual hidden states in the network contain signal rich enough to predict future hidden states and, ultimately, token outputs. We find that, at some layers, we can approximate a model's output with more than 48% accuracy with respect to its prediction of subsequent tokens through a single hidden state. Finally we present a "Future Lens" visualization that uses these methods to create a new view of transformer states.

Although Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) demonstrate strong omni-modal perception, their ability to forecast future events from audio-visual cues remains largely unexplored, as existing benchmarks focus mainly on retrospective understanding. To bridge this gap, we introduce FutureOmni, the first benchmark designed to evaluate omni-modal future forecasting from audio-visual environments. The evaluated models are required to perform cross-modal causal and temporal reasoning, as well as effectively leverage internal knowledge to predict future events. FutureOmni is constructed via a scalable LLM-assisted, human-in-the-loop pipeline and contains 919 videos and 1,034 multiple-choice QA pairs across 8 primary domains. Evaluations on 13 omni-modal and 7 video-only models show that current systems struggle with audio-visual future prediction, particularly in speech-heavy scenarios, with the best accuracy of 64.8% achieved by Gemini 3 Flash. To mitigate this limitation, we curate a 7K-sample instruction-tuning dataset and propose an Omni-Modal Future Forecasting (OFF) training strategy. Evaluations on FutureOmni and popular audio-visual and video-only benchmarks demonstrate that OFF enhances future forecasting and generalization. We publicly release all code (https://github.com/OpenMOSS/FutureOmni) and datasets (https://huggingface.co/datasets/OpenMOSS-Team/FutureOmni).

This technical report describes the design and training of novel speculative decoding draft models, for accelerating the inference speeds of large language models in a production environment. By conditioning draft predictions on both context vectors and sampled tokens, we can train our speculators to efficiently predict high-quality n-grams, which the base model then accepts or rejects. This allows us to effectively predict multiple tokens per inference forward pass, accelerating wall-clock inference speeds of highly optimized base model implementations by a factor of 2-3x. We explore these initial results and describe next steps for further improvements.

Inspired by the curvature of space-time (Einstein, 1921), we introduce Curved Contrastive Learning (CCL), a novel representation learning technique for learning the relative turn distance between utterance pairs in multi-turn dialogues. The resulting bi-encoder models can guide transformers as a response ranking model towards a goal in a zero-shot fashion by projecting the goal utterance and the corresponding reply candidates into a latent space. Here the cosine similarity indicates the distance/reachability of a candidate utterance toward the corresponding goal. Furthermore, we explore how these forward-entailing language representations can be utilized for assessing the likelihood of sequences by the entailment strength i.e. through the cosine similarity of its individual members (encoded separately) as an emergent property in the curved space. These non-local properties allow us to imagine the likelihood of future patterns in dialogues, specifically by ordering/identifying future goal utterances that are multiple turns away, given a dialogue context. As part of our analysis, we investigate characteristics that make conversations (un)plannable and find strong evidence of planning capability over multiple turns (in 61.56% over 3 turns) in conversations from the DailyDialog (Li et al., 2017) dataset. Finally, we show how we achieve higher efficiency in sequence modeling tasks compared to previous work thanks to our relativistic approach, where only the last utterance needs to be encoded and computed during inference.

Automated AI research holds great potential to accelerate scientific discovery. However, current LLMs often generate plausible-looking but ineffective ideas. Execution grounding may help, but it is unclear whether automated execution is feasible and whether LLMs can learn from the execution feedback. To investigate these, we first build an automated executor to implement ideas and launch large-scale parallel GPU experiments to verify their effectiveness. We then convert two realistic research problems - LLM pre-training and post-training - into execution environments and demonstrate that our automated executor can implement a large fraction of the ideas sampled from frontier LLMs. We analyze two methods to learn from the execution feedback: evolutionary search and reinforcement learning. Execution-guided evolutionary search is sample-efficient: it finds a method that significantly outperforms the GRPO baseline (69.4% vs 48.0%) on post-training, and finds a pre-training recipe that outperforms the nanoGPT baseline (19.7 minutes vs 35.9 minutes) on pre-training, all within just ten search epochs. Frontier LLMs often generate meaningful algorithmic ideas during search, but they tend to saturate early and only occasionally exhibit scaling trends. Reinforcement learning from execution reward, on the other hand, suffers from mode collapse. It successfully improves the average reward of the ideator model but not the upper-bound, due to models converging on simple ideas. We thoroughly analyze the executed ideas and training dynamics to facilitate future efforts towards execution-grounded automated AI research.

In recent years, generative pre-trained paradigms such as Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Vision Models (LVMs) have achieved revolutionary advancements and widespread real-world applications. Particularly, the emergence of pre-trained LLMs-based temporal works, compared to previous deep model approaches, has demonstrated superior generalization and robustness, showcasing the potential of generative pre-trained paradigms as foundation models for time series. However, those LLMs-based works mainly focus on cross-modal research, i.e., leveraging the language capabilities of LLMs in time series contexts. Although they have achieved impressive performance, there still exist the issues of concept drift caused by differences in data distribution and inflexibility caused by misalignment of dimensions. To this end, inspired by recent work on LVMs, we reconsider the paradigm of time series modeling. In this paper, we comprehensively explore, for the first time, the effectiveness and superiority of the Generative Pre-trained Diffusion (GPD) paradigm in real-world multivariate time series forecasting (TSF). Specifically, to mitigate performance bias introduced by sophisticated networks, we propose a straightforward MLP diffusion network for unconditional modeling of time series. Then we employ a zero-shot and tuning-free method to predict (generate) future data using historical data as prompts. The GPD paradigm is established on the time series modality, effectively preventing the phenomenon of concept drift, and enabling flexible forecasting of arbitrary lengths. We demonstrate that the GPD paradigm achieves comprehensive performance and generalization comparable to current SOTA LLM-based and deep model paradigms on mainstream benchmarks and various TSF tasks. Extensive experiments validate the potential of the GPD paradigm and its assistance in future related research.

Concept-based interpretability methods aim to explain deep neural network model predictions using a predefined set of semantic concepts. These methods evaluate a trained model on a new, "probe" dataset and correlate model predictions with the visual concepts labeled in that dataset. Despite their popularity, they suffer from limitations that are not well-understood and articulated by the literature. In this work, we analyze three commonly overlooked factors in concept-based explanations. First, the choice of the probe dataset has a profound impact on the generated explanations. Our analysis reveals that different probe datasets may lead to very different explanations, and suggests that the explanations are not generalizable outside the probe dataset. Second, we find that concepts in the probe dataset are often less salient and harder to learn than the classes they claim to explain, calling into question the correctness of the explanations. We argue that only visually salient concepts should be used in concept-based explanations. Finally, while existing methods use hundreds or even thousands of concepts, our human studies reveal a much stricter upper bound of 32 concepts or less, beyond which the explanations are much less practically useful. We make suggestions for future development and analysis of concept-based interpretability methods. Code for our analysis and user interface can be found at https://github.com/princetonvisualai/OverlookedFactors