Daily Papers

The one-dimensional J_1-J_2 q-state Potts model is solved exactly for arbitrary q, based on using OpenAI's latest reasoning model o3-mini-high to exactly solve the q=3 case. The exact results provide insights to outstanding physical problems such as the stacking of atomic or electronic orders in layered materials and the formation of a T_c-dome-shaped phase often seen in unconventional superconductors. The work is anticipated to fuel both the research in one-dimensional frustrated magnets for recently discovered finite-temperature application potentials and the fast moving topic area of AI for sciences.

We study finite-alphabet spin models on trees evolving under independent symmetric spin-flip dynamics. On the lattice the time-evolved plus measure of the low temperature Ising model in zero external field was shown to be non-quasilocal for all sufficiently large times in EnFeHoRe02. On the tree however the time-evolved plus phase of the Ising model behaves differently, as the quasilocal Gibbs property is first lost, but then recovered at a later time EnErIaKu12. We first extend this result by showing that large-time reentry into the quasilocal Gibbs regime on the tree happens more generally for all finite alphabet models, when the dynamics is started in f-stable Gibbs states. These are defined in terms of a time-independent sharp condition on the homogeneous recursion f describing the model, which can be checked explicitly. As our second and opposite result, we develop a method for proving large-time persistence of non-quasilocality of time-evolved measures. We show that even all configurations can become bad at large times, when the initial Gibbs measure corresponds to an f-saddle and give an explicit illustration for the Potts model. In our proofs we study the influence of spatially inhomogeneous perturbations to the solutions of a time-dependent fixed point problem.

Alignment has quickly become a default ingredient in LLM development, with techniques such as reinforcement learning from human feedback making models act safely, follow instructions, and perform ever-better on complex tasks. While these techniques are certainly useful, we propose that they should not be universally applied and demonstrate a range of tasks on which base language models consistently outperform their popular aligned forms. Particularly, we study tasks that require unpredictable outputs, such as random number generation, mixed strategy games (rock-paper-scissors and hide-and-seek), and creative writing. In each case, aligned models tend towards narrow behaviors that result in distinct disadvantages, for instance, preferring to generate "7" over other uniformly random numbers, becoming almost fully predictable in some game states, or prioritizing pleasant writing over creative originality. Across models tested, better performance on common benchmarks tends to correlate with worse performance on our tasks, suggesting an effective trade-off in the required capabilities.

A faithful and interpretable explanation of an AI model's behavior and internal structure is a high-level explanation that is human-intelligible but also consistent with the known, but often opaque low-level causal details of the model. We argue that the theory of causal abstraction provides the mathematical foundations for the desired kinds of model explanations. In causal abstraction analysis, we use interventions on model-internal states to rigorously assess whether an interpretable high-level causal model is a faithful description of an AI model. Our contributions in this area are: (1) We generalize causal abstraction to cyclic causal structures and typed high-level variables. (2) We show how multi-source interchange interventions can be used to conduct causal abstraction analyses. (3) We define a notion of approximate causal abstraction that allows us to assess the degree to which a high-level causal model is a causal abstraction of a lower-level one. (4) We prove constructive causal abstraction can be decomposed into three operations we refer to as marginalization, variable-merge, and value-merge. (5) We formalize the XAI methods of LIME, causal effect estimation, causal mediation analysis, iterated nullspace projection, and circuit-based explanations as special cases of causal abstraction analysis.

Probabilistic models of language understanding are valuable tools for investigating human language use. However, they need to be hand-designed for a particular domain. In contrast, large language models (LLMs) are trained on text that spans a wide array of domains, but they lack the structure and interpretability of probabilistic models. In this paper, we use chain-of-thought prompts to introduce structures from probabilistic models into LLMs. We explore this approach in the case of metaphor understanding. Our chain-of-thought prompts lead language models to infer latent variables and reason about their relationships in order to choose appropriate paraphrases for metaphors. The latent variables and relationships chosen are informed by theories of metaphor understanding from cognitive psychology. We apply these prompts to the two largest versions of GPT-3 and show that they can improve performance in a paraphrase selection task.

We address whether neural models for Natural Language Inference (NLI) can learn the compositional interactions between lexical entailment and negation, using four methods: the behavioral evaluation methods of (1) challenge test sets and (2) systematic generalization tasks, and the structural evaluation methods of (3) probes and (4) interventions. To facilitate this holistic evaluation, we present Monotonicity NLI (MoNLI), a new naturalistic dataset focused on lexical entailment and negation. In our behavioral evaluations, we find that models trained on general-purpose NLI datasets fail systematically on MoNLI examples containing negation, but that MoNLI fine-tuning addresses this failure. In our structural evaluations, we look for evidence that our top-performing BERT-based model has learned to implement the monotonicity algorithm behind MoNLI. Probes yield evidence consistent with this conclusion, and our intervention experiments bolster this, showing that the causal dynamics of the model mirror the causal dynamics of this algorithm on subsets of MoNLI. This suggests that the BERT model at least partially embeds a theory of lexical entailment and negation at an algorithmic level.

A number of recent benchmarks seek to assess how well models handle natural language negation. However, these benchmarks lack the controlled example paradigms that would allow us to infer whether a model had learned how negation morphemes semantically scope. To fill these analytical gaps, we present the Scoped Negation NLI (ScoNe-NLI) benchmark, which contains contrast sets of six examples with up to two negations where either zero, one, or both negative morphemes affect the NLI label. We use ScoNe-NLI to assess fine-tuning and in-context learning strategies. We find that RoBERTa and DeBERTa models solve ScoNe-NLI after many shot fine-tuning. For in-context learning, we test InstructGPT models and find that most prompt strategies are not successful, including those using step-by-step reasoning. To better understand this result, we extend ScoNe with ScoNe-NLG, a sentence completion test set that embeds negation reasoning in short narratives. Here, InstructGPT is successful, which reveals the model can correctly reason about negation, but struggles to do so on prompt-adapted NLI examples outside of its core pretraining regime.

Statements involving metalinguistic self-reference ("This paper has six sections.") are prevalent in many domains. Can large language models (LLMs) handle such language? In this paper, we present "I am a Strange Dataset", a new dataset for addressing this question. There are two subtasks: generation and verification. In generation, models continue statements like "The penultimate word in this sentence is" (where a correct continuation is "is"). In verification, models judge the truth of statements like "The penultimate word in this sentence is sentence." (false). We also provide minimally different metalinguistic non-self-reference examples to complement the main dataset by probing for whether models can handle metalinguistic language at all. The dataset is hand-crafted by experts and validated by non-expert annotators. We test a variety of open-source LLMs (7B to 70B parameters) as well as closed-source LLMs through APIs. All models perform close to chance across both subtasks and even on the non-self-referential metalinguistic control data, though we find some steady improvement with model scale. GPT 4 is the only model to consistently do significantly better than chance, and it is still only in the 60% range, while our untrained human annotators score well in the 89-93% range. The dataset and evaluation toolkit are available at https://github.com/TristanThrush/i-am-a-strange-dataset.

Language Model Programs, i.e. sophisticated pipelines of modular language model (LM) calls, are increasingly advancing NLP tasks, but they require crafting prompts that are jointly effective for all modules. We study prompt optimization for LM programs, i.e. how to update these prompts to maximize a downstream metric without access to module-level labels or gradients. To make this tractable, we factorize our problem into optimizing the free-form instructions and few-shot demonstrations of every module and introduce several strategies to craft task-grounded instructions and navigate credit assignment across modules. Our strategies include (i) program- and data-aware techniques for proposing effective instructions, (ii) a stochastic mini-batch evaluation function for learning a surrogate model of our objective, and (iii) a meta-optimization procedure in which we refine how LMs construct proposals over time. Using these insights we develop MIPRO, a novel algorithm for optimizing LM programs. MIPRO outperforms baseline optimizers on five of seven diverse multi-stage LM programs using a best-in-class open-source model (Llama-3-8B), by as high as 13% accuracy. We have released our new optimizers and benchmark in DSPy at http://dspy.ai

Suppose Alice trains an open-weight language model and Bob uses a blackbox derivative of Alice's model to produce text. Can Alice prove that Bob is using her model, either by querying Bob's derivative model (query setting) or from the text alone (observational setting)? We formulate this question as an independence testing problem--in which the null hypothesis is that Bob's model or text is independent of Alice's randomized training run--and investigate it through the lens of palimpsestic memorization in language models: models are more likely to memorize data seen later in training, so we can test whether Bob is using Alice's model using test statistics that capture correlation between Bob's model or text and the ordering of training examples in Alice's training run. If Alice has randomly shuffled her training data, then any significant correlation amounts to exactly quantifiable statistical evidence against the null hypothesis, regardless of the composition of Alice's training data. In the query setting, we directly estimate (via prompting) the likelihood Bob's model gives to Alice's training examples and order; we correlate the likelihoods of over 40 fine-tunes of various Pythia and OLMo base models ranging from 1B to 12B parameters with the base model's training data order, achieving a p-value on the order of at most 1e-8 in all but six cases. In the observational setting, we try two approaches based on estimating 1) the likelihood of Bob's text overlapping with spans of Alice's training examples and 2) the likelihood of Bob's text with respect to different versions of Alice's model we obtain by repeating the last phase (e.g., 1%) of her training run on reshuffled data. The second approach can reliably distinguish Bob's text from as little as a few hundred tokens; the first does not involve any retraining but requires many more tokens (several hundred thousand) to achieve high power.

Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently memorize long sequences verbatim, often with serious legal and privacy implications. Much prior work has studied such verbatim memorization using observational data. To complement such work, we develop a framework to study verbatim memorization in a controlled setting by continuing pre-training from Pythia checkpoints with injected sequences. We find that (1) non-trivial amounts of repetition are necessary for verbatim memorization to happen; (2) later (and presumably better) checkpoints are more likely to verbatim memorize sequences, even for out-of-distribution sequences; (3) the generation of memorized sequences is triggered by distributed model states that encode high-level features and makes important use of general language modeling capabilities. Guided by these insights, we develop stress tests to evaluate unlearning methods and find they often fail to remove the verbatim memorized information, while also degrading the LM. Overall, these findings challenge the hypothesis that verbatim memorization stems from specific model weights or mechanisms. Rather, verbatim memorization is intertwined with the LM's general capabilities and thus will be very difficult to isolate and suppress without degrading model quality.

We derive a quantum master equation in Lindblad form for the open quantum Rabi model in the perturbative deep strong coupling regime, where the spectrum is close to degenerate and harmonic. The Lindblad form is obtained by combining secular and singular-coupling approximations, working in a Schrieffer-Wolff transformed frame. We benchmark our equation against a Bloch-Redfield one, analyzing the time-evolution and steady state properties of several observables and find excellent agreement. Analytical results are obtained in limiting cases.

Explainability methods for NLP systems encounter a version of the fundamental problem of causal inference: for a given ground-truth input text, we never truly observe the counterfactual texts necessary for isolating the causal effects of model representations on outputs. In response, many explainability methods make no use of counterfactual texts, assuming they will be unavailable. In this paper, we show that robust causal explainability methods can be created using approximate counterfactuals, which can be written by humans to approximate a specific counterfactual or simply sampled using metadata-guided heuristics. The core of our proposal is the Causal Proxy Model (CPM). A CPM explains a black-box model N because it is trained to have the same actual input/output behavior as N while creating neural representations that can be intervened upon to simulate the counterfactual input/output behavior of N. Furthermore, we show that the best CPM for N performs comparably to N in making factual predictions, which means that the CPM can simply replace N, leading to more explainable deployed models. Our code is available at https://github.com/frankaging/Causal-Proxy-Model.

Chaining language model (LM) calls as composable modules is fueling a new powerful way of programming. However, ensuring that LMs adhere to important constraints remains a key challenge, one often addressed with heuristic "prompt engineering". We introduce LM Assertions, a new programming construct for expressing computational constraints that LMs should satisfy. We integrate our constructs into the recent DSPy programming model for LMs, and present new strategies that allow DSPy to compile programs with arbitrary LM Assertions into systems that are more reliable and more accurate. In DSPy, LM Assertions can be integrated at compile time, via automatic prompt optimization, and/or at inference time, via automatic selfrefinement and backtracking. We report on two early case studies for complex question answering (QA), in which the LM program must iteratively retrieve information in multiple hops and synthesize a long-form answer with citations. We find that LM Assertions improve not only compliance with imposed rules and guidelines but also enhance downstream task performance, delivering intrinsic and extrinsic gains up to 35.7% and 13.3%, respectively. Our reference implementation of LM Assertions is integrated into DSPy at https://github.com/stanfordnlp/dspy

Data visualizations are powerful tools for communicating patterns in quantitative data. Yet understanding any data visualization is no small feat -- succeeding requires jointly making sense of visual, numerical, and linguistic inputs arranged in a conventionalized format one has previously learned to parse. Recently developed vision-language models are, in principle, promising candidates for developing computational models of these cognitive operations. However, it is currently unclear to what degree these models emulate human behavior on tasks that involve reasoning about data visualizations. This gap reflects limitations in prior work that has evaluated data visualization understanding in artificial systems using measures that differ from those typically used to assess these abilities in humans. Here we evaluated eight vision-language models on six data visualization literacy assessments designed for humans and compared model responses to those of human participants. We found that these models performed worse than human participants on average, and this performance gap persisted even when using relatively lenient criteria to assess model performance. Moreover, while relative performance across items was somewhat correlated between models and humans, all models produced patterns of errors that were reliably distinct from those produced by human participants. Taken together, these findings suggest significant opportunities for further development of artificial systems that might serve as useful models of how humans reason about data visualizations. All code and data needed to reproduce these results are available at: https://osf.io/e25mu/?view_only=399daff5a14d4b16b09473cf19043f18.

Modern LLMs are increasingly deep, and depth correlates with performance, albeit with diminishing returns. However, do these models use their depth efficiently? Do they compose more features to create higher-order computations that are impossible in shallow models, or do they merely spread the same kinds of computation out over more layers? To address these questions, we analyze the residual stream of the Llama 3.1 and Qwen 3 family of models. We find: First, comparing the output of the sublayers to the residual stream reveals that layers in the second half contribute much less than those in the first half, with a clear phase transition between the two halves. Second, skipping layers in the second half has a much smaller effect on future computations and output predictions. Third, for multihop tasks, we are unable to find evidence that models are using increased depth to compose subresults in examples involving many hops. Fourth, we seek to directly address whether deeper models are using their additional layers to perform new kinds of computation. To do this, we train linear maps from the residual stream of a shallow model to a deeper one. We find that layers with the same relative depth map best to each other, suggesting that the larger model simply spreads the same computations out over its many layers. All this evidence suggests that deeper models are not using their depth to learn new kinds of computation, but only using the greater depth to perform more fine-grained adjustments to the residual. This may help explain why increasing scale leads to diminishing returns for stacked Transformer architectures.

While reasoning models are increasingly ubiquitous, the effects of reasoning training on a model's internal mechanisms remain poorly understood. In this work, we introduce transcoder adapters, a technique for learning an interpretable approximation of the difference in MLP computation before and after fine-tuning. We apply transcoder adapters to characterize the differences between Qwen2.5-Math-7B and its reasoning-distilled variant, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B. Learned adapters are faithful to the target model's internal computation and next-token predictions. When evaluated on reasoning benchmarks, adapters match the reasoning model's response lengths and typically recover 50-90% of the accuracy gains from reasoning fine-tuning. Adapter features are sparsely activating and interpretable. When examining adapter features, we find that only ~8% have activating examples directly related to reasoning behaviors. We deeply study one such behavior -- the production of hesitation tokens (e.g., "wait"). Using attribution graphs, we trace hesitation to only ~2.4% of adapter features (5.6k total) performing one of two functions. These features are necessary and sufficient for producing hesitation tokens; removing them reduces response length, often without affecting accuracy. Overall, our results provide insight into reasoning training and suggest transcoder adapters may be useful for studying fine-tuning more broadly.

Attributing language model outputs to their internal computations is an open problem in interpretability. Existing methods, which use causal interventions, gradients, or learnable masks, either are infeasibly expensive or struggle to identify actual causally-important internal computations. We propose framing attribution as the problem of identifying nested subsets of internal components which minimise a downstream loss. To learn this task, we introduce Matryoshka Attribution (MAttr), a mask learning method that parametrises the mask with a simple differentiable sigmoid top-k operator. We supervise training over all sparsities simultaneously by randomising k over training, resulting in a learned ordering of components by attribution score. MAttr achieves number 1 on the official leaderboard of the Mechanistic Interpretability Benchmark (Mueller et al., 2025); our method identifies sparse and task-transferrable circuits across varying circuit bases. As a practical application, we show that MAttr can be trained with reinforcement learning to identify weight changes responsible for downstream behaviours in LLM finetuning. We train MAttr on refusal judge scores and find that restoring 1% of Llama 3.1 8B Instruct's weights to their base model state is sufficient to remove refusals while maintaining capabilities. We view MAttr as a successful formulation of interpretability into a learnable objective that we can tackle with gradient descent, and encourage future work along these lines.

Models that rely on subword tokenization have significant drawbacks, such as sensitivity to character-level noise like spelling errors and inconsistent compression rates across different languages and scripts. While character- or byte-level models like ByT5 attempt to address these concerns, they have not gained widespread adoption -- processing raw byte streams without tokenization results in significantly longer sequence lengths, making training and inference inefficient. This work introduces MrT5 (MergeT5), a more efficient variant of ByT5 that integrates a token deletion mechanism in its encoder to dynamically shorten the input sequence length. After processing through a fixed number of encoder layers, a learnt delete gate determines which tokens are to be removed and which are to be retained for subsequent layers. MrT5 effectively ``merges'' critical information from deleted tokens into a more compact sequence, leveraging contextual information from the remaining tokens. In continued pre-training experiments, we find that MrT5 can achieve significant gains in inference runtime with minimal effect on performance. When trained on English text, MrT5 demonstrates the capability to transfer its deletion feature zero-shot across several languages, with significant additional improvements following multilingual training. Furthermore, MrT5 shows comparable accuracy to ByT5 on downstream evaluations such as XNLI and character-level tasks while reducing sequence lengths by up to 80%. Our approach presents a solution to the practical limitations of existing byte-level models.

Steering methods for language models (LMs) seek to provide fine-grained and interpretable control over model generations by variously changing model inputs, weights, or representations to adjust behavior. Recent work has shown that adjusting weights or representations is often less effective than steering by prompting, for instance when wanting to introduce or suppress a particular concept. We demonstrate how to improve representation steering via our new Reference-free Preference Steering (RePS), a bidirectional preference-optimization objective that jointly does concept steering and suppression. We train three parameterizations of RePS and evaluate them on AxBench, a large-scale model steering benchmark. On Gemma models with sizes ranging from 2B to 27B, RePS outperforms all existing steering methods trained with a language modeling objective and substantially narrows the gap with prompting -- while promoting interpretability and minimizing parameter count. In suppression, RePS matches the language-modeling objective on Gemma-2 and outperforms it on the larger Gemma-3 variants while remaining resilient to prompt-based jailbreaking attacks that defeat prompting. Overall, our results suggest that RePS provides an interpretable and robust alternative to prompting for both steering and suppression.

State space models (SSMs) for language modelling promise an efficient and performant alternative to quadratic-attention Transformers, yet show variable performance on recalling basic information from the context. While performance on synthetic tasks like Associative Recall (AR) can point to this deficiency, behavioural metrics provide little information as to why--on a mechanistic level--certain architectures fail and others succeed. To address this, we conduct experiments on AR and find that only Transformers and Based SSM models fully succeed at AR, with Mamba a close third, whereas the other SSMs (H3, Hyena) fail. We then use causal interventions to explain why. We find that Transformers and Based learn to store key-value associations in-context using induction heads. By contrast, the SSMs compute these associations only at the last state, with only Mamba succeeding because of its short convolution component. To extend and deepen these findings, we introduce Associative Treecall (ATR), a synthetic task similar to AR based on PCFG induction. ATR introduces language-like hierarchical structure into the AR setting. We find that all architectures learn the same mechanism as they did for AR, and the same three models succeed at the task. These results reveal that architectures with similar accuracy may still have substantive differences, motivating the adoption of mechanistic evaluations.

Larger models learn tasks smaller models do not. What drives this phenomenon? We develop a simple phenomenological argument that power-law scaling already suggests that a larger model will be able to learn a part of the data distribution that a smaller model fails to learn, even with infinite training data. To validate this claim and identify its causes, we study the effects of model scaling on a synthetic setup consisting of a mixture of tasks that show monotonic scaling curves. The results point to a data-induced competition over resources (neurons). Specifically, smaller models allocate their neurons to high frequency or low complexity tasks, and so they learn solutions that perform poorly on rare and complex tasks. Moreover, this happens even when solutions capable of expressing the desired task exist. We then assess how a larger model circumvents this data-centric bottleneck, finding that it traces to a reduced interference mechanism: larger models can allocate enough resources to common tasks that the gradient updates for those tasks become weak, which means that they do not overwrite rare-task features as they slowly accumulate. Finally, to further validate these claims, we pretrain OLMo models (4M to 4B parameters) on novel tasks of varying frequency and complexity. The results mirror those from our synthetic data experiments: only the larger OLMo models learn the infrequent and complex tasks, and these larger models embed more task features in their representations and show less gradient interference between tasks. Overall, we offer a data-centric account of why larger models learn tasks that smaller models fail to. This helps explain why larger models are better in practice, and it can inform practical questions concerning model sizing and training data mixtures.

The increasing size and complexity of modern ML systems has improved their predictive capabilities but made their behavior harder to explain. Many techniques for model explanation have been developed in response, but we lack clear criteria for assessing these techniques. In this paper, we cast model explanation as the causal inference problem of estimating causal effects of real-world concepts on the output behavior of ML models given actual input data. We introduce CEBaB, a new benchmark dataset for assessing concept-based explanation methods in Natural Language Processing (NLP). CEBaB consists of short restaurant reviews with human-generated counterfactual reviews in which an aspect (food, noise, ambiance, service) of the dining experience was modified. Original and counterfactual reviews are annotated with multiply-validated sentiment ratings at the aspect-level and review-level. The rich structure of CEBaB allows us to go beyond input features to study the effects of abstract, real-world concepts on model behavior. We use CEBaB to compare the quality of a range of concept-based explanation methods covering different assumptions and conceptions of the problem, and we seek to establish natural metrics for comparative assessments of these methods.

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods seek to adapt large models via updates to a small number of weights. However, much prior interpretability work has shown that representations encode rich semantic information, suggesting that editing representations might be a more powerful alternative. Here, we pursue this hypothesis by developing a family of Representation Finetuning (ReFT) methods. ReFT methods operate on a frozen base model and learn task-specific interventions on hidden representations. We define a strong instance of the ReFT family, Low-rank Linear Subspace ReFT (LoReFT). LoReFT is a drop-in replacement for existing PEFTs and learns interventions that are 10x-50x more parameter-efficient than prior state-of-the-art PEFTs. We showcase LoReFT on eight commonsense reasoning tasks, four arithmetic reasoning tasks, Alpaca-Eval v1.0, and GLUE. In all these evaluations, LoReFT delivers the best balance of efficiency and performance, and almost always outperforms state-of-the-art PEFTs. We release a generic ReFT training library publicly at https://github.com/stanfordnlp/pyreft.

Interventions on model-internal states are fundamental operations in many areas of AI, including model editing, steering, robustness, and interpretability. To facilitate such research, we introduce pyvene, an open-source Python library that supports customizable interventions on a range of different PyTorch modules. pyvene supports complex intervention schemes with an intuitive configuration format, and its interventions can be static or include trainable parameters. We show how pyvene provides a unified and extensible framework for performing interventions on neural models and sharing the intervened upon models with others. We illustrate the power of the library via interpretability analyses using causal abstraction and knowledge localization. We publish our library through Python Package Index (PyPI) and provide code, documentation, and tutorials at https://github.com/stanfordnlp/pyvene.

Individual neurons participate in the representation of multiple high-level concepts. To what extent can different interpretability methods successfully disentangle these roles? To help address this question, we introduce RAVEL (Resolving Attribute-Value Entanglements in Language Models), a dataset that enables tightly controlled, quantitative comparisons between a variety of existing interpretability methods. We use the resulting conceptual framework to define the new method of Multi-task Distributed Alignment Search (MDAS), which allows us to find distributed representations satisfying multiple causal criteria. With Llama2-7B as the target language model, MDAS achieves state-of-the-art results on RAVEL, demonstrating the importance of going beyond neuron-level analyses to identify features distributed across activations. We release our benchmark at https://github.com/explanare/ravel.

Language models demonstrate both quantitative improvement and new qualitative capabilities with increasing scale. Despite their potentially transformative impact, these new capabilities are as yet poorly characterized. In order to inform future research, prepare for disruptive new model capabilities, and ameliorate socially harmful effects, it is vital that we understand the present and near-future capabilities and limitations of language models. To address this challenge, we introduce the Beyond the Imitation Game benchmark (BIG-bench). BIG-bench currently consists of 204 tasks, contributed by 442 authors across 132 institutions. Task topics are diverse, drawing problems from linguistics, childhood development, math, common-sense reasoning, biology, physics, social bias, software development, and beyond. BIG-bench focuses on tasks that are believed to be beyond the capabilities of current language models. We evaluate the behavior of OpenAI's GPT models, Google-internal dense transformer architectures, and Switch-style sparse transformers on BIG-bench, across model sizes spanning millions to hundreds of billions of parameters. In addition, a team of human expert raters performed all tasks in order to provide a strong baseline. Findings include: model performance and calibration both improve with scale, but are poor in absolute terms (and when compared with rater performance); performance is remarkably similar across model classes, though with benefits from sparsity; tasks that improve gradually and predictably commonly involve a large knowledge or memorization component, whereas tasks that exhibit "breakthrough" behavior at a critical scale often involve multiple steps or components, or brittle metrics; social bias typically increases with scale in settings with ambiguous context, but this can be improved with prompting.

AI is undergoing a paradigm shift with the rise of models (e.g., BERT, DALL-E, GPT-3) that are trained on broad data at scale and are adaptable to a wide range of downstream tasks. We call these models foundation models to underscore their critically central yet incomplete character. This report provides a thorough account of the opportunities and risks of foundation models, ranging from their capabilities (e.g., language, vision, robotics, reasoning, human interaction) and technical principles(e.g., model architectures, training procedures, data, systems, security, evaluation, theory) to their applications (e.g., law, healthcare, education) and societal impact (e.g., inequity, misuse, economic and environmental impact, legal and ethical considerations). Though foundation models are based on standard deep learning and transfer learning, their scale results in new emergent capabilities,and their effectiveness across so many tasks incentivizes homogenization. Homogenization provides powerful leverage but demands caution, as the defects of the foundation model are inherited by all the adapted models downstream. Despite the impending widespread deployment of foundation models, we currently lack a clear understanding of how they work, when they fail, and what they are even capable of due to their emergent properties. To tackle these questions, we believe much of the critical research on foundation models will require deep interdisciplinary collaboration commensurate with their fundamentally sociotechnical nature.

Chomsky and others have very directly claimed that large language models (LLMs) are equally capable of learning languages that are possible and impossible for humans to learn. However, there is very little published experimental evidence to support such a claim. Here, we develop a set of synthetic impossible languages of differing complexity, each designed by systematically altering English data with unnatural word orders and grammar rules. These languages lie on an impossibility continuum: at one end are languages that are inherently impossible, such as random and irreversible shuffles of English words, and on the other, languages that may not be intuitively impossible but are often considered so in linguistics, particularly those with rules based on counting word positions. We report on a wide range of evaluations to assess the capacity of GPT-2 small models to learn these uncontroversially impossible languages, and crucially, we perform these assessments at various stages throughout training to compare the learning process for each language. Our core finding is that GPT-2 struggles to learn impossible languages when compared to English as a control, challenging the core claim. More importantly, we hope our approach opens up a productive line of inquiry in which different LLM architectures are tested on a variety of impossible languages in an effort to learn more about how LLMs can be used as tools for these cognitive and typological investigations.

As language models (LMs) are increasingly adopted across domains, high-quality benchmarking frameworks that accurately estimate performance are essential for guiding deployment decisions. While frameworks such as Holistic Evaluation of Language Models (HELM) enable broad evaluation across tasks, they often rely on fixed prompts that fail to generalize across LMs, yielding unrepresentative performance estimates. Unless we approximate each LM's ceiling (maximum achievable via changes to the prompt), we risk underestimating performance. Declarative prompting frameworks, such as DSPy, offer a scalable alternative to manual prompt engineering by crafting structured prompts that can be optimized per task. However, such frameworks have not been systematically evaluated across established benchmarks. We present a reproducible DSPy+HELM framework that introduces structured prompting methods which elicit reasoning, enabling more accurate LM benchmarking. Using four prompting methods, we evaluate four frontier LMs across seven benchmarks (general/medical domain) against existing HELM baseline scores. We find that without structured prompting: (i) HELM underestimates LM performance (by 4% average), (ii) performance estimates vary more across benchmarks (+2% standard deviation), (iii) performance gaps are misrepresented (leaderboard rankings flip on 3/7 benchmarks), and (iv) introducing chain-of-thought reduces LM sensitivity to prompt design (smaller Δ across prompts). To our knowledge, this is the first benchmarking study to systematically integrate structured prompting into an established evaluation framework, demonstrating how scalable performance-ceiling approximation yields more robust, decision-useful benchmarks. We open-source (i) DSPy+HELM Integration (https://github.com/stanford-crfm/helm/pull/3893) and (ii) Prompt Optimization Pipeline (https://github.com/StanfordMIMI/dspy-helm).

The ML community is rapidly exploring techniques for prompting language models (LMs) and for stacking them into pipelines that solve complex tasks. Unfortunately, existing LM pipelines are typically implemented using hard-coded "prompt templates", i.e. lengthy strings discovered via trial and error. Toward a more systematic approach for developing and optimizing LM pipelines, we introduce DSPy, a programming model that abstracts LM pipelines as text transformation graphs, i.e. imperative computational graphs where LMs are invoked through declarative modules. DSPy modules are parameterized, meaning they can learn (by creating and collecting demonstrations) how to apply compositions of prompting, finetuning, augmentation, and reasoning techniques. We design a compiler that will optimize any DSPy pipeline to maximize a given metric. We conduct two case studies, showing that succinct DSPy programs can express and optimize sophisticated LM pipelines that reason about math word problems, tackle multi-hop retrieval, answer complex questions, and control agent loops. Within minutes of compiling, a few lines of DSPy allow GPT-3.5 and llama2-13b-chat to self-bootstrap pipelines that outperform standard few-shot prompting (generally by over 25% and 65%, respectively) and pipelines with expert-created demonstrations (by up to 5-46% and 16-40%, respectively). On top of that, DSPy programs compiled to open and relatively small LMs like 770M-parameter T5 and llama2-13b-chat are competitive with approaches that rely on expert-written prompt chains for proprietary GPT-3.5. DSPy is available at https://github.com/stanfordnlp/dspy

The information stored in large language models (LLMs) falls out of date quickly, and retraining from scratch is often not an option. This has recently given rise to a range of techniques for injecting new facts through updating model weights. Current evaluation paradigms are extremely limited, mainly validating the recall of edited facts, but changing one fact should cause rippling changes to the model's related beliefs. If we edit the UK Prime Minister to now be Rishi Sunak, then we should get a different answer to Who is married to the British Prime Minister? In this work, we present a benchmark, MQuAKE (Multi-hop Question Answering for Knowledge Editing), comprising multi-hop questions that assess whether edited models correctly answer questions where the answer should change as an entailed consequence of edited facts. While we find that current knowledge-editing approaches can recall edited facts accurately, they fail catastrophically on the constructed multi-hop questions. We thus propose a simple memory-based approach, MeLLo, which stores all edited facts externally while prompting the language model iteratively to generate answers that are consistent with the edited facts. While MQuAKE remains challenging, we show that MeLLo scales well with LLMs (up to 175B) and outperforms previous model editors by a large margin.

Interpretability research now offers a variety of techniques for identifying abstract internal mechanisms in neural networks. Can such techniques be used to predict how models will behave on out-of-distribution examples? In this work, we provide a positive answer to this question. Through a diverse set of language modeling tasks--including symbol manipulation, knowledge retrieval, and instruction following--we show that the most robust features for correctness prediction are those that play a distinctive causal role in the model's behavior. Specifically, we propose two methods that leverage causal mechanisms to predict the correctness of model outputs: counterfactual simulation (checking whether key causal variables are realized) and value probing (using the values of those variables to make predictions). Both achieve high AUC-ROC in distribution and outperform methods that rely on causal-agnostic features in out-of-distribution settings, where predicting model behaviors is more crucial. Our work thus highlights a novel and significant application for internal causal analysis of language models.

Retrieval-augmented in-context learning has emerged as a powerful approach for addressing knowledge-intensive tasks using frozen language models (LM) and retrieval models (RM). Existing work has combined these in simple "retrieve-then-read" pipelines in which the RM retrieves passages that are inserted into the LM prompt. To begin to fully realize the potential of frozen LMs and RMs, we propose Demonstrate-Search-Predict (DSP), a framework that relies on passing natural language texts in sophisticated pipelines between an LM and an RM. DSP can express high-level programs that bootstrap pipeline-aware demonstrations, search for relevant passages, and generate grounded predictions, systematically breaking down problems into small transformations that the LM and RM can handle more reliably. We have written novel DSP programs for answering questions in open-domain, multi-hop, and conversational settings, establishing in early evaluations new state-of-the-art in-context learning results and delivering 37-120%, 8-39%, and 80-290% relative gains against the vanilla LM (GPT-3.5), a standard retrieve-then-read pipeline, and a contemporaneous self-ask pipeline, respectively. We release DSP at https://github.com/stanfordnlp/dsp

We develop a method for training small-scale (under 100M parameter) neural information retrieval models with as few as 10 gold relevance labels. The method depends on generating synthetic queries for documents using a language model (LM), and the key step is that we automatically optimize the LM prompt that is used to generate these queries based on training quality. In experiments with the BIRCO benchmark, we find that models trained with our method outperform RankZephyr and are competitive with RankLLama, both of which are 7B parameter models trained on over 100K labels. These findings point to the power of automatic prompt optimization for synthetic dataset generation.

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) has proven to be an effective tool for post-training language models (LMs). However, AI systems are increasingly expressed as modular programs that mix together multiple LM calls with distinct prompt templates and other tools, and it is not clear how best to leverage GRPO to improve these systems. We begin to address this challenge by defining mmGRPO, a simple multi-module generalization of GRPO that groups LM calls by module across rollouts and handles variable-length and interrupted trajectories. We find that mmGRPO, composed with automatic prompt optimization, improves accuracy by 11% on average across classification, many-hop search, and privacy-preserving delegation tasks against the post-trained LM, and by 5% against prompt optimization on its own. We open-source mmGRPO in DSPy as the dspy.GRPO optimizer.

Multi-hop reasoning (i.e., reasoning across two or more documents) is a key ingredient for NLP models that leverage large corpora to exhibit broad knowledge. To retrieve evidence passages, multi-hop models must contend with a fast-growing search space across the hops, represent complex queries that combine multiple information needs, and resolve ambiguity about the best order in which to hop between training passages. We tackle these problems via Baleen, a system that improves the accuracy of multi-hop retrieval while learning robustly from weak training signals in the many-hop setting. To tame the search space, we propose condensed retrieval, a pipeline that summarizes the retrieved passages after each hop into a single compact context. To model complex queries, we introduce a focused late interaction retriever that allows different parts of the same query representation to match disparate relevant passages. Lastly, to infer the hopping dependencies among unordered training passages, we devise latent hop ordering, a weak-supervision strategy in which the trained retriever itself selects the sequence of hops. We evaluate Baleen on retrieval for two-hop question answering and many-hop claim verification, establishing state-of-the-art performance.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful sources of evidence for linguists seeking to develop theories of syntax. In this paper, we argue that causal interpretability methods, applied to LLMs, can greatly enhance the value of such evidence by helping us characterize the abstract mechanisms that LLMs learn to use. Our empirical focus is a set of English filler-gap dependency constructions (e.g., questions, relative clauses). Linguistic theories largely agree that these constructions share many properties. Using experiments based in Distributed Interchange Interventions, we show that LLMs converge on similar abstract analyses of these constructions. These analyses also reveal previously overlooked factors -- relating to frequency, filler type, and surrounding context -- that could motivate changes to standard linguistic theory. Overall, these results suggest that mechanistic, internal analyses of LLMs can push linguistic theory forward.

Systems for Open-Domain Question Answering (OpenQA) generally depend on a retriever for finding candidate passages in a large corpus and a reader for extracting answers from those passages. In much recent work, the retriever is a learned component that uses coarse-grained vector representations of questions and passages. We argue that this modeling choice is insufficiently expressive for dealing with the complexity of natural language questions. To address this, we define ColBERT-QA, which adapts the scalable neural retrieval model ColBERT to OpenQA. ColBERT creates fine-grained interactions between questions and passages. We propose an efficient weak supervision strategy that iteratively uses ColBERT to create its own training data. This greatly improves OpenQA retrieval on Natural Questions, SQuAD, and TriviaQA, and the resulting system attains state-of-the-art extractive OpenQA performance on all three datasets.

Language models (LMs) have proven to be powerful tools for psycholinguistic research, but most prior work has focused on purely behavioural measures (e.g., surprisal comparisons). At the same time, research in model interpretability has begun to illuminate the abstract causal mechanisms shaping LM behavior. To help bring these strands of research closer together, we introduce CausalGym. We adapt and expand the SyntaxGym suite of tasks to benchmark the ability of interpretability methods to causally affect model behaviour. To illustrate how CausalGym can be used, we study the pythia models (14M--6.9B) and assess the causal efficacy of a wide range of interpretability methods, including linear probing and distributed alignment search (DAS). We find that DAS outperforms the other methods, and so we use it to study the learning trajectory of two difficult linguistic phenomena in pythia-1b: negative polarity item licensing and filler--gap dependencies. Our analysis shows that the mechanism implementing both of these tasks is learned in discrete stages, not gradually.

It is often advantageous to train models on a subset of the available train examples, because the examples are of variable quality or because one would like to train with fewer examples, without sacrificing performance. We present Gradient Information Optimization (GIO), a scalable, task-agnostic approach to this data selection problem that requires only a small set of (unlabeled) examples representing a target distribution. GIO begins from a natural, information-theoretic objective that is intractable in practice. Our contribution is in showing that it can be made highly scalable through a simple relaxation of the objective and a highly efficient implementation. In experiments with machine translation, spelling correction, and image recognition, we show that GIO delivers outstanding results with very small train sets. These findings are robust to different representation models and hyperparameters for GIO itself. GIO is task- and domain-agnostic and can be applied out-of-the-box to new datasets and domains.

We introduce DynaSent ('Dynamic Sentiment'), a new English-language benchmark task for ternary (positive/negative/neutral) sentiment analysis. DynaSent combines naturally occurring sentences with sentences created using the open-source Dynabench Platform, which facilities human-and-model-in-the-loop dataset creation. DynaSent has a total of 121,634 sentences, each validated by five crowdworkers, and its development and test splits are designed to produce chance performance for even the best models we have been able to develop; when future models solve this task, we will use them to create DynaSent version 2, continuing the dynamic evolution of this benchmark. Here, we report on the dataset creation effort, focusing on the steps we took to increase quality and reduce artifacts. We also present evidence that DynaSent's Neutral category is more coherent than the comparable category in other benchmarks, and we motivate training models from scratch for each round over successive fine-tuning.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are often aligned using contrastive alignment objectives and preference pair datasets. The interaction between model, paired data, and objective makes alignment a complicated procedure, sometimes producing subpar results. We study this and find that (i) preference data gives a better learning signal when the underlying responses are contrastive, and (ii) alignment objectives lead to better performance when they specify more control over the model during training. Based on these insights, we introduce Contrastive Learning from AI Revisions (CLAIR), a data-creation method which leads to more contrastive preference pairs, and Anchored Preference Optimization (APO), a controllable and more stable alignment objective. We align Llama-3-8B-Instruct using various comparable datasets and alignment objectives and measure MixEval-Hard scores, which correlate highly with human judgments. The CLAIR preferences lead to the strongest performance out of all datasets, and APO consistently outperforms less controllable objectives. Our best model, trained on 32K CLAIR preferences with APO, improves Llama-3-8B-Instruct by 7.65%, closing the gap with GPT4-turbo by 45%. Our code is available at https://github.com/ContextualAI/CLAIR_and_APO.

Pre-trained language models are increasingly important components across multiple information retrieval (IR) paradigms. Late interaction, introduced with the ColBERT model and recently refined in ColBERTv2, is a popular paradigm that holds state-of-the-art status across many benchmarks. To dramatically speed up the search latency of late interaction, we introduce the Performance-optimized Late Interaction Driver (PLAID). Without impacting quality, PLAID swiftly eliminates low-scoring passages using a novel centroid interaction mechanism that treats every passage as a lightweight bag of centroids. PLAID uses centroid interaction as well as centroid pruning, a mechanism for sparsifying the bag of centroids, within a highly-optimized engine to reduce late interaction search latency by up to 7times on a GPU and 45times on a CPU against vanilla ColBERTv2, while continuing to deliver state-of-the-art retrieval quality. This allows the PLAID engine with ColBERTv2 to achieve latency of tens of milliseconds on a GPU and tens or just few hundreds of milliseconds on a CPU at large scale, even at the largest scales we evaluate with 140M passages.

Steering language models (LMs) by modifying internal activations is a popular approach for controlling text generation. Unsupervised dictionary learning methods, e.g., sparse autoencoders, can be scaled to produce many steering vectors, but lack guarantees on the individual efficacy of each vector and control over the coverage of relevant steering tasks. In contrast, supervised methods for constructing steering vectors are targeted and effective, but require more data collection and training for each additional steering vector produced. In this work, we introduce HyperSteer, a family of hypernetwork-based architectures which are trained end-to-end to generate steering vectors conditioned on the natural language steering prompts and the internals of the steered LM. In our evaluations, we show that scaling HyperSteer with thousands of steering prompts exceeds the performance of state-of-the-art activation steering methods, even on steering prompts never seen during training. Moreover, HyperSteer performs on par with steering-via-prompting.

Obtaining human-interpretable explanations of large, general-purpose language models is an urgent goal for AI safety. However, it is just as important that our interpretability methods are faithful to the causal dynamics underlying model behavior and able to robustly generalize to unseen inputs. Distributed Alignment Search (DAS) is a powerful gradient descent method grounded in a theory of causal abstraction that uncovered perfect alignments between interpretable symbolic algorithms and small deep learning models fine-tuned for specific tasks. In the present paper, we scale DAS significantly by replacing the remaining brute-force search steps with learned parameters -- an approach we call DAS. This enables us to efficiently search for interpretable causal structure in large language models while they follow instructions. We apply DAS to the Alpaca model (7B parameters), which, off the shelf, solves a simple numerical reasoning problem. With DAS, we discover that Alpaca does this by implementing a causal model with two interpretable boolean variables. Furthermore, we find that the alignment of neural representations with these variables is robust to changes in inputs and instructions. These findings mark a first step toward deeply understanding the inner-workings of our largest and most widely deployed language models.

Previous work on Universal Transformers (UTs) has demonstrated the importance of parameter sharing across layers. By allowing recurrence in depth, UTs have advantages over standard Transformers in learning compositional generalizations, but layer-sharing comes with a practical limitation of parameter-compute ratio: it drastically reduces the parameter count compared to the non-shared model with the same dimensionality. Naively scaling up the layer size to compensate for the loss of parameters makes its computational resource requirements prohibitive. In practice, no previous work has succeeded in proposing a shared-layer Transformer design that is competitive in parameter count-dominated tasks such as language modeling. Here we propose MoEUT (pronounced "moot"), an effective mixture-of-experts (MoE)-based shared-layer Transformer architecture, which combines several recent advances in MoEs for both feedforward and attention layers of standard Transformers together with novel layer-normalization and grouping schemes that are specific and crucial to UTs. The resulting UT model, for the first time, slightly outperforms standard Transformers on language modeling tasks such as BLiMP and PIQA, while using significantly less compute and memory.

Natural Language Processing (NLP) systems are increasingly taking the form of multi-stage pipelines involving multiple distinct language models (LMs) and prompting strategies. Here we address the question of how to fine-tune such systems to improve their performance. We cast this as a problem of optimizing the underlying LM weights and the prompting strategies together, and consider a challenging but highly realistic scenario in which we have no gold labels for any intermediate stages in the pipeline. To address this challenge, we evaluate approximate optimization strategies in which we bootstrap training labels for all pipeline stages and use these to optimize the pipeline's prompts and fine-tune its weights alternatingly. In experiments with multi-hop QA, mathematical reasoning, and feature-based classification, we find that simple approaches for optimizing the prompts and weights together outperform directly optimizing weights alone and prompts alone by up to 65% and 5%, respectively, on average across LMs and tasks. We will release our new optimizers in DSPy at http://dspy.ai

Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) on chain-of-thought reasoning has become a standard part of language model post-training recipes. A common assumption is that the reasoning chains trained through RLVR reliably represent how a model gets to its answer. In this paper, we develop two metrics for critically examining this assumption: Causal Importance of Reasoning (CIR), which measures the cumulative effect of reasoning tokens on the final answer, and Sufficiency of Reasoning (SR), which measures whether a verifier can arrive at an unambiguous answer based on the reasoning alone. Through experiments with the Qwen2.5 model series and ReasoningGym tasks, we find that: (1) while RLVR does improve task accuracy, it does not reliably improve CIR or SR, calling the role of reasoning in model performance into question; (2) a small amount of SFT before RLVR can be a remedy for low CIR and SR; and (3) CIR and SR can be improved even without SFT by applying auxiliary CIR/SR rewards on top of the outcome-based reward. This joint reward matches the accuracy of RLVR while also leading to causally important and sufficient reasoning. These results show that RLVR does not always lead models to rely on reasoning in the way that is commonly thought, but this issue can be remedied with simple modifications to the post-training procedure.

Subliminal learning is a phenomenon in which a distillation dataset transmits traits from the teacher model that are not legibly encoded in the dataset itself. This introduces a new challenge for model development and creates new risks from data poisoning. In this work, we use text optimization to detect subliminal learning effects and describe them as legible prompts. Subliminal learning from a prompted teacher motivates our approach. We observe that this is a special case of context distillation and leverage this observation to show that, in theory, the prompted subliminal learning dataset identifies the teacher's prompt. We reduce recovering this prompt to a text optimization problem and present a method to approximately solve it. Our method, SALVE (Search-Aided Latent Verbalization), optimizes a soft prompt, queries the same model to verbalize it as text, and uses beam search to make the verbalization reliable. In the standard subliminal learning setting, SALVE reliably recovers legible prompts that name the teacher's trait, while common text optimization methods fail to do so. In addition, we find that there are settings in which SALVE recovers the teacher's trait from a dataset even when subliminal learning fails, but that modifying student training to improve context distillation can create subliminal learning effects. We lastly show that SALVE detects subliminal learning effects in three additional settings: (1) mixtures of subliminal learning data and unrelated data, (2) data generated when the teacher is biased via activation steering, and (3) subsets of real preference data selected via Logit-Linear Selection. Overall, our results deepen our understanding of subliminal learning and present SALVE as a method to proactively detect subliminal learning effects.

Large annotated datasets in NLP are overwhelmingly in English. This is an obstacle to progress in other languages. Unfortunately, obtaining new annotated resources for each task in each language would be prohibitively expensive. At the same time, commercial machine translation systems are now robust. Can we leverage these systems to translate English-language datasets automatically? In this paper, we offer a positive response for natural language inference (NLI) in Turkish. We translated two large English NLI datasets into Turkish and had a team of experts validate their translation quality and fidelity to the original labels. Using these datasets, we address core issues of representation for Turkish NLI. We find that in-language embeddings are essential and that morphological parsing can be avoided where the training set is large. Finally, we show that models trained on our machine-translated datasets are successful on human-translated evaluation sets. We share all code, models, and data publicly.

We introduce Dynaboard, an evaluation-as-a-service framework for hosting benchmarks and conducting holistic model comparison, integrated with the Dynabench platform. Our platform evaluates NLP models directly instead of relying on self-reported metrics or predictions on a single dataset. Under this paradigm, models are submitted to be evaluated in the cloud, circumventing the issues of reproducibility, accessibility, and backwards compatibility that often hinder benchmarking in NLP. This allows users to interact with uploaded models in real time to assess their quality, and permits the collection of additional metrics such as memory use, throughput, and robustness, which -- despite their importance to practitioners -- have traditionally been absent from leaderboards. On each task, models are ranked according to the Dynascore, a novel utility-based aggregation of these statistics, which users can customize to better reflect their preferences, placing more/less weight on a particular axis of evaluation or dataset. As state-of-the-art NLP models push the limits of traditional benchmarks, Dynaboard offers a standardized solution for a more diverse and comprehensive evaluation of model quality.

Quality pretraining data is often seen as the key to high-performance language models. However, progress in understanding pretraining data has been slow due to the costly pretraining runs required for data selection experiments. We present a framework that avoids these costs and selects high-quality pretraining data without any LLM training of our own. Our work is based on a simple observation: LLM losses on many pretraining texts are correlated with downstream benchmark performance, and selecting high-correlation documents is an effective pretraining data selection method. We build a new statistical framework for data selection centered around estimates of perplexity-benchmark correlations and perform data selection using a sample of 90 LLMs taken from the Open LLM Leaderboard on texts from tens of thousands of web domains. In controlled pretraining experiments at the 160M parameter scale on 8 benchmarks, our approach outperforms DSIR on every benchmark, while matching the best data selector found in DataComp-LM, a hand-engineered bigram classifier.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly adapted to downstream tasks via reinforcement learning (RL) methods like Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), which often require thousands of rollouts to learn new tasks. We argue that the interpretable nature of language can often provide a much richer learning medium for LLMs, compared with policy gradients derived from sparse, scalar rewards. To test this, we introduce GEPA (Genetic-Pareto), a prompt optimizer that thoroughly incorporates natural language reflection to learn high-level rules from trial and error. Given any AI system containing one or more LLM prompts, GEPA samples system-level trajectories (e.g., reasoning, tool calls, and tool outputs) and reflects on them in natural language to diagnose problems, propose and test prompt updates, and combine complementary lessons from the Pareto frontier of its own attempts. As a result of GEPA's design, it can often turn even just a few rollouts into a large quality gain. Across four tasks, GEPA outperforms GRPO by 10% on average and by up to 20%, while using up to 35x fewer rollouts. GEPA also outperforms the leading prompt optimizer, MIPROv2, by over 10% across two LLMs, and demonstrates promising results as an inference-time search strategy for code optimization.

Recent byte-level language models (LMs) match the performance of token-level models without relying on subword vocabularies, yet their utility is limited by slow, byte-by-byte autoregressive generation. We address this bottleneck in the Byte Latent Transformer (BLT) through new training and generation techniques. First, we introduce BLT Diffusion (BLT-D), a new model and our fastest BLT variant, trained with an auxiliary block-wise diffusion objective alongside the standard next-byte prediction loss. This enables an inference procedure that generates multiple bytes in parallel per decoding step, substantially reducing the number of forward passes required to generate a sequence. Second, we propose two extensions inspired by speculative decoding that trade some of this speed for higher generation quality: BLT Self-speculation (BLT-S), in which BLT's local decoder continues generating past its normal patch boundaries to draft bytes, which are then verified with a single full-model forward pass; and BLT Diffusion+Verification (BLT-DV), which augments BLT-D with an autoregressive verification step after diffusion-based generation. All methods may achieve an estimated memory-bandwidth cost over 50% lower than BLT on generation tasks. Each approach offers its own unique advantages, together removing key barriers to the practical use of byte-level LMs.

We study serving retrieval models, specifically late interaction models like ColBERT, to many concurrent users at once and under a small budget, in which the index may not fit in memory. We present ColBERT-serve, a novel serving system that applies a memory-mapping strategy to the ColBERT index, reducing RAM usage by 90% and permitting its deployment on cheap servers, and incorporates a multi-stage architecture with hybrid scoring, reducing ColBERT's query latency and supporting many concurrent queries in parallel.

Fine-grained steering of language model outputs is essential for safety and reliability. Prompting and finetuning are widely used to achieve these goals, but interpretability researchers have proposed a variety of representation-based techniques as well, including sparse autoencoders (SAEs), linear artificial tomography, supervised steering vectors, linear probes, and representation finetuning. At present, there is no benchmark for making direct comparisons between these proposals. Therefore, we introduce AxBench, a large-scale benchmark for steering and concept detection, and report experiments on Gemma-2-2B and 9B. For steering, we find that prompting outperforms all existing methods, followed by finetuning. For concept detection, representation-based methods such as difference-in-means, perform the best. On both evaluations, SAEs are not competitive. We introduce a novel weakly-supervised representational method (Rank-1 Representation Finetuning; ReFT-r1), which is competitive on both tasks while providing the interpretability advantages that prompting lacks. Along with AxBench, we train and publicly release SAE-scale feature dictionaries for ReFT-r1 and DiffMean.

Sycophantic agreement refers to a behavior in which language models excessively affirm the user, often at the cost of factual accuracy. Although sycophantic agreement is a well-known failure of model alignment, there is limited understanding of how it emerges from model training. In this work, we demonstrate that sycophantic agreement can emerge as an unintended consequence of widely used contrastive preference optimization objectives. Using the OLMo 3 post-training pipeline, we show that, for various pairs of teacher models across three families, there is a strong correlation between the log-ratio of the teacher model sycophantic agreement rates and the resulting student model sycophantic agreement rate. We further demonstrate that this unintended transfer is not limited to DPO but also occurs across 6 other preference optimization objectives. To understand whether this effect can be attributed to particular training examples, we analyze the preference data and find that the sycophancy signal is diffused across the entire dataset rather than concentrated in a sparse set of examples: each example appears neutral, i.e., there are no explicit instances of sycophantic agreement, and filtering based on probe-based data attribution or logit-linear selection fails to mitigate sycophancy without removing a large portion of the dataset. Overall, our findings suggest that the teacher models used to generate preference data can interact with alignment training objectives in unexpected ways, generalizing to undesirable and potentially harmful behaviors like sycophantic agreement.

Many information retrieval tasks require large labeled datasets for fine-tuning. However, such datasets are often unavailable, and their utility for real-world applications can diminish quickly due to domain shifts. To address this challenge, we develop and motivate a method for using large language models (LLMs) to generate large numbers of synthetic queries cheaply. The method begins by generating a small number of synthetic queries using an expensive LLM. After that, a much less expensive one is used to create large numbers of synthetic queries, which are used to fine-tune a family of reranker models. These rerankers are then distilled into a single efficient retriever for use in the target domain. We show that this technique boosts zero-shot accuracy in long-tail domains, even where only 2K synthetic queries are used for fine-tuning, and that it achieves substantially lower latency than standard reranking methods. We make our end-to-end approach, including our synthetic datasets and replication code, publicly available on Github: https://github.com/primeqa/primeqa.

Multi-label classification problems with thousands of classes are hard to solve with in-context learning alone, as language models (LMs) might lack prior knowledge about the precise classes or how to assign them, and it is generally infeasible to demonstrate every class in a prompt. We propose a general program, Infer--Retrieve--Rank, that defines multi-step interactions between LMs and retrievers to efficiently tackle such problems. We implement this program using the DSPy programming model, which specifies in-context systems in a declarative manner, and use DSPy optimizers to tune it towards specific datasets by bootstrapping only tens of few-shot examples. Our primary extreme classification program, optimized separately for each task, attains state-of-the-art results across three benchmarks (HOUSE, TECH, TECHWOLF). We apply the same program to a benchmark with vastly different characteristics and attain competitive performance as well (BioDEX). Unlike prior work, our proposed solution requires no finetuning, is easily applicable to new tasks, alleviates prompt engineering, and requires only tens of labeled examples. Our code is public at https://github.com/KarelDO/xmc.dspy.

What are the limits of controlling language models via synthetic training data? We develop a reinforcement learning (RL) primitive, the Dataset Policy Gradient (DPG), which can precisely optimize synthetic data generators to produce a dataset of targeted examples. When used for supervised fine-tuning (SFT) of a target model, these examples cause the target model to do well on a differentiable metric of our choice. Our approach achieves this by taking exact data attribution via higher-order gradients and using those scores as policy gradient rewards. We prove that this procedure closely approximates the true, intractable gradient for the synthetic data generator. To illustrate the potential of DPG, we show that, using only SFT on generated examples, we can cause the target model's LM head weights to (1) embed a QR code, (2) embed the pattern 67, and (3) have lower ell^2 norm. We additionally show that we can cause the generator to (4) rephrase inputs in a new language and (5) produce a specific UUID, even though neither of these objectives is conveyed in the generator's input prompts. These findings suggest that DPG is a powerful and flexible technique for shaping model properties using only synthetic training examples.

Natural language is an appealing medium for explaining how large language models process and store information, but evaluating the faithfulness of such explanations is challenging. To help address this, we develop two modes of evaluation for natural language explanations that claim individual neurons represent a concept in a text input. In the observational mode, we evaluate claims that a neuron a activates on all and only input strings that refer to a concept picked out by the proposed explanation E. In the intervention mode, we construe E as a claim that the neuron a is a causal mediator of the concept denoted by E. We apply our framework to the GPT-4-generated explanations of GPT-2 XL neurons of Bills et al. (2023) and show that even the most confident explanations have high error rates and little to no causal efficacy. We close the paper by critically assessing whether natural language is a good choice for explanations and whether neurons are the best level of analysis.

Referenceless metrics (e.g., CLIPScore) use pretrained vision--language models to assess image descriptions directly without costly ground-truth reference texts. Such methods can facilitate rapid progress, but only if they truly align with human preference judgments. In this paper, we introduce ContextRef, a benchmark for assessing referenceless metrics for such alignment. ContextRef has two components: human ratings along a variety of established quality dimensions, and ten diverse robustness checks designed to uncover fundamental weaknesses. A crucial aspect of ContextRef is that images and descriptions are presented in context, reflecting prior work showing that context is important for description quality. Using ContextRef, we assess a variety of pretrained models, scoring functions, and techniques for incorporating context. None of the methods is successful with ContextRef, but we show that careful fine-tuning yields substantial improvements. ContextRef remains a challenging benchmark though, in large part due to the challenge of context dependence.

The Linear Representation Hypothesis (LRH) states that neural networks learn to encode concepts as directions in activation space, and a strong version of the LRH states that models learn only such encodings. In this paper, we present a counterexample to this strong LRH: when trained to repeat an input token sequence, gated recurrent neural networks (RNNs) learn to represent the token at each position with a particular order of magnitude, rather than a direction. These representations have layered features that are impossible to locate in distinct linear subspaces. To show this, we train interventions to predict and manipulate tokens by learning the scaling factor corresponding to each sequence position. These interventions indicate that the smallest RNNs find only this magnitude-based solution, while larger RNNs have linear representations. These findings strongly indicate that interpretability research should not be confined by the LRH.

Question answering (QA) is the task of answering questions posed in natural language with free-form natural language answers extracted from a given passage. In the OpenQA variant, only a question text is given, and the system must retrieve relevant passages from an unstructured knowledge source and use them to provide answers, which is the case in the mainstream QA systems on the Web. QA systems currently are mostly limited to the English language due to the lack of large-scale labeled QA datasets in non-English languages. In this paper, we show that effective, low-cost OpenQA systems can be developed for low-resource contexts. The key ingredients are (1) weak supervision using machine-translated labeled datasets and (2) a relevant unstructured knowledge source in the target language context. Furthermore, we show that only a few hundred gold assessment examples are needed to reliably evaluate these systems. We apply our method to Turkish as a challenging case study, since English and Turkish are typologically very distinct and Turkish has limited resources for QA. We present SQuAD-TR, a machine translation of SQuAD2.0, and we build our OpenQA system by adapting ColBERT-QA and retraining it over Turkish resources and SQuAD-TR using two versions of Wikipedia dumps spanning two years. We obtain a performance improvement of 24-32% in the Exact Match (EM) score and 22-29% in the F1 score compared to the BM25-based and DPR-based baseline QA reader models. Our results show that SQuAD-TR makes OpenQA feasible for Turkish, which we hope encourages researchers to build OpenQA systems in other low-resource languages. We make all the code, models, and the dataset publicly available at https://github.com/boun-tabi/SQuAD-TR.

Neural information retrieval (IR) has greatly advanced search and other knowledge-intensive language tasks. While many neural IR methods encode queries and documents into single-vector representations, late interaction models produce multi-vector representations at the granularity of each token and decompose relevance modeling into scalable token-level computations. This decomposition has been shown to make late interaction more effective, but it inflates the space footprint of these models by an order of magnitude. In this work, we introduce ColBERTv2, a retriever that couples an aggressive residual compression mechanism with a denoised supervision strategy to simultaneously improve the quality and space footprint of late interaction. We evaluate ColBERTv2 across a wide range of benchmarks, establishing state-of-the-art quality within and outside the training domain while reducing the space footprint of late interaction models by 6--10times.

Understanding entailment and contradiction is fundamental to understanding natural language, and inference about entailment and contradiction is a valuable testing ground for the development of semantic representations. However, machine learning research in this area has been dramatically limited by the lack of large-scale resources. To address this, we introduce the Stanford Natural Language Inference corpus, a new, freely available collection of labeled sentence pairs, written by humans doing a novel grounded task based on image captioning. At 570K pairs, it is two orders of magnitude larger than all other resources of its type. This increase in scale allows lexicalized classifiers to outperform some sophisticated existing entailment models, and it allows a neural network-based model to perform competitively on natural language inference benchmarks for the first time.

Causal abstraction is a promising theoretical framework for explainable artificial intelligence that defines when an interpretable high-level causal model is a faithful simplification of a low-level deep learning system. However, existing causal abstraction methods have two major limitations: they require a brute-force search over alignments between the high-level model and the low-level one, and they presuppose that variables in the high-level model will align with disjoint sets of neurons in the low-level one. In this paper, we present distributed alignment search (DAS), which overcomes these limitations. In DAS, we find the alignment between high-level and low-level models using gradient descent rather than conducting a brute-force search, and we allow individual neurons to play multiple distinct roles by analyzing representations in non-standard bases-distributed representations. Our experiments show that DAS can discover internal structure that prior approaches miss. Overall, DAS removes previous obstacles to conducting causal abstraction analyses and allows us to find conceptual structure in trained neural nets.

We introduce Dynabench, an open-source platform for dynamic dataset creation and model benchmarking. Dynabench runs in a web browser and supports human-and-model-in-the-loop dataset creation: annotators seek to create examples that a target model will misclassify, but that another person will not. In this paper, we argue that Dynabench addresses a critical need in our community: contemporary models quickly achieve outstanding performance on benchmark tasks but nonetheless fail on simple challenge examples and falter in real-world scenarios. With Dynabench, dataset creation, model development, and model assessment can directly inform each other, leading to more robust and informative benchmarks. We report on four initial NLP tasks, illustrating these concepts and highlighting the promise of the platform, and address potential objections to dynamic benchmarking as a new standard for the field.

Evaluating retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems traditionally relies on hand annotations for input queries, passages to retrieve, and responses to generate. We introduce ARES, an Automated RAG Evaluation System, for evaluating RAG systems along the dimensions of context relevance, answer faithfulness, and answer relevance. Using synthetic training data, ARES finetunes lightweight LM judges to assess the quality of individual RAG components. To mitigate potential prediction errors, ARES utilizes a small set of human-annotated datapoints for prediction-powered inference (PPI). Across six different knowledge-intensive tasks in KILT and SuperGLUE, ARES accurately evaluates RAG systems while using a few hundred human annotations during evaluation. Furthermore, ARES judges remain effective across domain shifts, proving accurate even after changing the type of queries and/or documents used in the evaluated RAG systems. We make our datasets and code for replication and deployment available at https://github.com/stanford-futuredata/ARES.

The rapid introduction of new brand names into everyday language poses a unique challenge for e-commerce spelling correction services, which must distinguish genuine misspellings from novel brand names that use unconventional spelling. We seek to address this challenge via Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG). On this approach, product names are retrieved from a catalog and incorporated into the context used by a large language model (LLM) that has been fine-tuned to do contextual spelling correction. Through quantitative evaluation and qualitative error analyses, we find improvements in spelling correction utilizing the RAG framework beyond a stand-alone LLM. We also demonstrate the value of additional finetuning of the LLM to incorporate retrieved context.

We study the scalar curvature of the Fisher information metric on the microscopic coupling-parameter manifold of lattice spin models at criticality. For a d-dimensional lattice with periodic boundary conditions and n = L^d sites, the Fisher manifold has m = d cdot n dimensions (one per bond), and we find |R(J_c)| sim n^{d_R} with d_R = (dν+ 2η)/(dν+ η), where ν and η are the correlation-length and anomalous-dimension critical exponents. For 2D Ising (ν= 1, η= 1/4), this predicts d_R = 10/9, confirmed by exact transfer-matrix computations (L = 6--9: d_R = 1.1115 pm 0.0002) and multi-seed MCMC through L = 24. For 3D Ising (ν= 0.630, η= 0.0363), the prediction d_R = 1.019 is consistent with MCMC on L^3 tori up to L = 10 (power-law fit: d_R = 1.040). For 2D Potts q = 3 (predicted 33/29 approx 1.138), FFT-MCMC through L = 40 shows d_eff oscillating non-monotonically around sim 1.20, consistent with O(1/(ln L)^2) logarithmic corrections. For q = 4 (predicted 22/19), effective exponents oscillate with strong logarithmic corrections. The Ricci decomposition identity R_3 = -R_1/2, R_4 = -R_2/2 holds to 5--6 digits for all models. This exponent is distinct from Ruppeiner thermodynamic curvature and reflects the collective geometry of the growing Fisher manifold. We provide falsification criteria and predictions for additional universality classes.

In this paper, we study the Hard Core (HC) model with a countable set mathbb Z of spin values on a Cayley tree of order k=2. This model is defined by a countable set of parameters (that is, the activity function λ_i>0, iin mathbb Z). A functional equation is obtained that provides the consistency condition for finite-dimensional Gibbs distributions. Analyzing this equation, the following results are obtained: Let kgeq 2 and Λ=sum_iλ_i. For Λ=+infty there is no translation-invariant Gibbs measure (TIGM); Let k=2 and Λ<+infty. For the model under constraint such that at G-admissible graph the loops are imposed at two vertices of the graph, the uniqueness of TIGM is proved; Let k=2 and Λ<+infty. For the model under constraint such that at G-admissible graph the loops are imposed at three vertices of the graph, the uniqueness and non-uniqueness conditions of TIGMs are found.

We study in detail a one-dimensional lattice model of a continuum, conserved field (mass) that is transferred deterministically between neighbouring random sites. The model falls in a wider class of lattice models capturing the joint effect of random advection and diffusion and encompassing as specific cases, some models studied in the literature, like the Kang-Redner, Kipnis-Marchioro-Presutti, Takayasu-Taguchi, etc. The motivation for our setup comes from a straightforward interpretation as advection of particles in one-dimensional turbulence, but it is also related to a problem of synchronization of dynamical systems driven by common noise. For finite lattices, we study both the coalescence of an initially spread field (interpreted as roughening), and the statistical steady-state properties. We distinguish two main size-dependent regimes, depending on the strength of the diffusion term and on the lattice size. Using numerical simulations and mean-field approach, we study the statistics of the field. For weak diffusion, we unveil a characteristic hierarchical structure of the field. We also connect the model and the iterated function systems concept.

We introduce a new predator-prey model by replacing the growth and predation constant by a square matrix, and the population density as a population vector. The classical Lotka-Volterra model describes a population that either modulates or converges. Stability analysis of such models have been extensively studied by the works of Merdan (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2007.06.062). The new model adds complexity by introducing an age group structure where the population of each age group evolves as prescribed by the Leslie matrix. The added complexity changes the behavior of the model such that the population either displays roughly an exponential growth or decay. We first provide an exact equation that describes a time evolution and use analytic techniques to obtain an approximate growth factor. We also discuss the variants of the Leslie model, i.e., the complex value predator-prey model and the competitive model. We then prove the Last Species Standing theorem that determines the dominant population in the large time limit. The recursive structure of the model denies the application of simple regression. We discuss a machine learning scheme that allows an admissible fit for the population evolution of Paramecium Aurelia and Paramecium Caudatum. Another potential avenue to simplify the computation is to use the machinery of quantum operators. We demonstrate the potential of this approach by computing the Hamiltonian of a simple Leslie system.

A compartmental deterministic model that allows (1) immunity from two stages of infection and carriage, and (2) disease induced death, is used in studying the dynamics of meningitis epidemic process in a closed population. It allows for difference in the transmission rate of infection to a susceptible by a carrier and an infective. It is generalized to allow a proportion ({\phi}) of those susceptibles infected to progress directly to infectives in stage I. Both models are used in this study. The threshold conditions for the spread of carrier and infectives in stage I are derived for the two models. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the reproductive number derived from the next generation matrix. The case-carrier ratio profile for various parameters and threshold values are shown. So also are the graphs of the total number ever infected as influenced by {\epsilon} and {\phi}. The infection transmission rate (eta), the odds in favor of a carrier, over an infective, in transmitting an infection to a susceptible ({\epsilon}) and the carrier conversion rate ({\phi}) to an infective in stage I, are identified as key parameters that should be subject of attention for any control intervention strategy. The case-carrier ratio profiles provide evidence of a critical case-carrier ratio attained before the number of reported cases grows to an epidemic level. They also provide visual evidence of epidemiological context, in this case, epidemic incidence (in later part of dry season) and endemic incidence (during rainy season). Results from total proportion ever infected suggest that the model, in which {\phi}=0 obtained, can adequately represent, in essence, the generalized model for this study.

We study the large scale behavior of a collection of hard core run and tumble particles on a one dimensional lattice with periodic boundary conditions. Each particle has persistent motion in one direction decided by an associated spin variable until the direction of spin is reversed. We map the run and tumble model to a mass transfer model with fluctuating directed bonds. We calculate the steady state single site mass distribution in the mass model within a mean field approximation for larger spin-flip rates and by analyzing an appropriate coalescence fragmentation model for small spin-flip rates. We also calculate the hydrodynamic coefficients of diffusivity and conductivity for both large and small spin-flip rates and show that the Einstein relation is violated in both regimes. We also show how the non-gradient nature of the process can be taken into account in a systematic manner to calculate the hydrodynamic coefficients.

The acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic has made apparent the need for decision support based upon accurate epidemic modeling. This process is substantially hampered by under-reporting of cases and related data incompleteness issues. In this article we adopt the Bayesian paradigm and synthesize publicly available data via a discrete-time stochastic epidemic modeling framework. The models allow for estimating the total number of infections while accounting for the endemic phase of the pandemic. We assess the prediction of the infection rate utilizing mobility information, notably the principal components of the mobility data. We evaluate variational Bayes in this context and find that Hamiltonian Monte Carlo offers a robust inference alternative for such models. We elaborate upon vector analysis of the epidemic dynamics, thus enriching the traditional tools used for decision making. In particular, we show how certain 2-dimensional plots on the phase plane may yield intuitive information regarding the speed and the type of transmission dynamics. We investigate the potential of a two-stage analysis as a consequence of cutting feedback, for inference on certain functionals of the model parameters. Finally, we show that a point mass on critical parameters is overly restrictive and investigate informative priors as a suitable alternative.

Multiple epidemic waves are often taken as evidence that simple compartmental models are structurally inadequate. Yet the key question is not whether a simple model can reproduce multiple peaks, but how much time-varying structure is minimally required to preserve observed epidemic-wave patterns and what can legitimately be inferred from such a representation. Using the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model, we develop a framework for peak-preserving dynamic parsimony linking dynamical systems, inverse problems, statistical inference, and infectious-disease modeling. We establish exact multi-wave representability under time-varying transmission, characterize conditions for epidemic peaks and resurgence, and show the incidence-only non-identifiability of time-varying transmission and removal rates. Our main methodological contribution is minimal peak-preserving complexity (MPPC): the smallest dimension of a positive time-varying transmission function whose posterior-predictive trajectories preserve salient features, including peak count, timing, height, trough depth, and whole-curve agreement. We estimate MPPC using peak-aware approximate Bayesian computation and evaluate it through six reproducible stress tests, a Philippine COVID-19 reported-case proof of concept, and short-term future-knot projection. Across diverse data-generating mechanisms, low-dimensional time-varying SIR models can preserve aggregate epidemic-wave topology with modest dynamic complexity. However, accurate trajectory compression does not imply recovery of the underlying mechanism or reliable long-term counterfactual prediction. The framework therefore separates four often-conflated questions: representability, minimal dynamic complexity, mechanistic identifiability, and projection validity, providing a basis for parsimonious modeling of complex epidemic trajectories.

In this paper we develop a model of an order-driven market where traders set bids and asks and post market or limit orders according to exogenously fixed rules. Agents are assumed to have three components to the expectation of future asset returns, namely-fundamentalist, chartist and noise trader. Furthermore agents differ in the characteristics describing these components, such as time horizon, risk aversion and the weights given to the various components. The model developed here extends a great deal of earlier literature in that the order submissions of agents are determined by utility maximisation, rather than the mechanical unit order size that is commonly assumed. In this way the order flow is better related to the ongoing evolution of the market. For the given market structure we analyze the impact of the three components of the trading strategies on the statistical properties of prices and order flows and observe that it is the chartist strategy that is mainly responsible of the fat tails and clustering in the artificial price data generated by the model. The paper provides further evidence that large price changes are likely to be generated by the presence of large gaps in the book.

This paper reformulates the Greenwood and Guner (2009) marriage and divorce model in continuous time using the HACT methods of Achdou et al. (2022). Replacing the AR(1) match quality process with an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process yields a tridiagonal generator, reducing the computational complexity of both the value function and stationary distribution calculations from quadratic to linear in the number of grid points. The continuous-time model closely replicates the discrete-time equilibrium across all key outcomes, including the share of married households, the marriage rate, and the divorce rate, while achieving substantial gains in computation time and memory usage.

Chemical reaction networks can undergo nonequilibrium phase transitions upon variation of external control parameters like the chemical potential of a species. We investigate the flux in the associated chemostats that is proportional to the entropy production and its critical fluctuations within the Schlögl model. Numerical simulations show that the corresponding diffusion coefficient diverges at the critical point as a function of system size. In the vicinity of the critical point, the diffusion coefficient follows a scaling form. We develop an analytical approach based on the chemical Langevin equation and van Kampen's system size expansion that yields the corresponding exponents in the monostable regime. In the bistable regime, we rely on a two-state approximation in order to analytically describe the critical behavior.

This paper presents a novel virus propagation model using NetLogo. The model allows agents to move across multiple sites using different routes. Routes can be configured, enabled for mobility and (un)locked down independently. Similarly, locations can also be (un)locked down independently. Agents can get infected, propagate their infections to others, can take precautions against infection and also subsequently recover from infection. This model contains certain features that are not present in existing models. The model may be used for educational and research purposes, and the code is made available as open source. This model may also provide a broader framework for more detailed simulations. The results presented are only to demonstrate the model functionalities and do not serve any other purpose.

We study a discrete model for generalized exchange-driven growth in which the particle exchanged between two clusters is not limited to be of size one. This set of models include as special cases the usual exchange-driven growth system and the coagulation-fragmentation system with binary fragmentation. Under reasonable general condition on the rate coefficients we establish the existence of admissible solutions, meaning solutions that are obtained as appropriate limit of solutions to a finite-dimensional truncation of the infinite-dimensional ODE. For these solutions we prove that, in the class of models we call isolated both the total number of particles and the total mass are conserved, whereas in those models we can non-isolated only the mass is conserved. Additionally, under more restrictive growth conditions for the rate equations we obtain uniqueness of solutions to the initial value problems.

Rate-induced tipping ("R-tipping") in ecological modelling is characterised by too-rapid change of an environmental parameter causing collapse of a population without any bifurcation being crossed ("B-tipping"). A well-known example of a slow-fast predator-prey model in which R-tipping is observed [Vanselow, Wieczorek, Feudel, Journal of Theoretical Biology, 479, 64-72 (2019)] suffers from unecological "resurgence", whereby populations driven to functional extinction recover towards stable coexistence. We propose an analytically tractable model, incorporating a strong Allee effect into the prey dynamics in a slow-fast Lotka-Volterra-type predator-prey system, which induces bistability and thus renders the extinction state a genuine attractor. Applying geometric singular perturbation theory (GSPT), we describe the dynamics of the extended model that is obtained by "ramping" of the inverse prey carrying capacity. We show the presence of a parabolic-shaped, folded critical manifold which admits a folded saddle singularity, the strong canard of which separates solutions that track the moving coexistence state from those that tip to extinction. The analytical simplicity of our model allows us to derive explicit expressions for the critical rate that separates "tracking" from "tipping" dynamics. Finally, we argue that our system represents a minimal model for rate-induced tipping to extinction, in that it incorporates three essential ingredients: bistability, a folded critical manifold, and a folded-saddle-type canard.

We study a model of a branching process subject to selection, modeled by giving each family an individual fitness acting as a branching rate, and mutation, modeled by resampling the fitness of a proportion of offspring in each generation. For two large classes of fitness distributions of Gumbel type we determine the growth of the population, almost surely on survival. We then study the empirical fitness distribution in a simplified model, which is numerically indistinguishable from the original model, and show the emergence of a Gaussian travelling wave.

Causal inference is often focused on average effects, which can hide important aspects of the effect distributions. Here we consider the entire posterior effects distribution by estimating full counterfactual outcome distributions. We propose a methodology for inference on counterfactual distributions which builds upon the martingale posterior framework of Fong et al. (2023). This provides a highly flexible approach to estimating densities, distribution functions, and derived quantities such as quantiles, which coherently quantifies the epistemic uncertainty on any target estimand of interest. As the predictive recursions are based on an underlying nonparametric model (a Dirichlet process mixture model), our method naturally inherits robustness with respect to restrictive parametric assumptions. In addition, implementation of our method is typically very fast. This approach can be applied to marginal or conditional counterfactual distributions and is easily extended to an instrumental variables setup. Using the concept of almost conditionally identically distributed random variables, we prove convergence of the martingale posterior inference on the counterfactual outcome distributions for the causal models considered in the paper. We illustrate our approach on both simulated and real data. Using the latter, we investigate the effect of zinc lozenges on common cold duration, the impact of vitamin A supplementation on children's survival rates with one-sided non-compliance (analysed in Imbens and Rubin, 1997a) and the effect of job training (LaLonde, 1986).

We verify that persistent observers in causally invariant hypergraph substrates satisfy the conditions of the Conant-Ashby Good Regulator Theorem. Building on Wolfram's hypergraph physics and Vanchurin's neural network cosmology, we formalize persistent observers as entities that minimize prediction error at their boundary with the environment. Applying a modern reformulation of the Conant-Ashby theorem, we demonstrate that hypergraph observers satisfy Good Regulator conditions, requiring them to maintain internal models. Once an internal model with loss function exists, the emergence of a Fisher information metric follows from standard information geometry. Invoking Amari's uniqueness theorem for reparameterization-invariant gradients, we show that natural gradient descent is the unique admissible learning rule. Under the ansatz M=F^2 for exponential family observers and one specific convergence time functional, we derive a closed-form formula for the regime parameter alpha in Vanchurin's Type II framework, with a quantum-classical threshold at kappa(F)=2. However, three alternative convergence models do not reproduce this result, so this prediction is strongly model-dependent. We further introduce the directional regime parameter alpha_{v_k} and the trace-free deviation tensor, showing that a single observer can simultaneously occupy different Vanchurin regimes along different eigendirections of the Fisher metric. This connects Wolfram and Vanchurin frameworks through established theorems, providing approximately 25-30% novel contribution.

Most economic theories typically assume that financial market participants are fully rational individuals and use mathematical models to simulate human behavior in financial markets. However, human behavior is often not entirely rational and is challenging to predict accurately with mathematical models. In this paper, we propose Agent-based Simulated Financial Market (ASFM), which first constructs a simulated stock market with a real order matching system. Then, we propose a large language model based agent as the stock trader, which contains the profile, observation, and tool-learning based action module. The trading agent can comprehensively understand current market dynamics and financial policy information, and make decisions that align with their trading strategy. In the experiments, we first verify that the reactions of our ASFM are consistent with the real stock market in two controllable scenarios. In addition, we also conduct experiments in two popular economics research directions, and we find that conclusions drawn in our \model align with the preliminary findings in economics research. Based on these observations, we believe our proposed ASFM provides a new paradigm for economic research.

Given the exponential growth of the volume of the ball w.r.t. its radius, the hyperbolic space is capable of embedding trees with arbitrarily small distortion and hence has received wide attention for representing hierarchical datasets. However, this exponential growth property comes at a price of numerical instability such that training hyperbolic learning models will sometimes lead to catastrophic NaN problems, encountering unrepresentable values in floating point arithmetic. In this work, we carefully analyze the limitation of two popular models for the hyperbolic space, namely, the Poincar\'e ball and the Lorentz model. We first show that, under the 64 bit arithmetic system, the Poincar\'e ball has a relatively larger capacity than the Lorentz model for correctly representing points. Then, we theoretically validate the superiority of the Lorentz model over the Poincar\'e ball from the perspective of optimization. Given the numerical limitations of both models, we identify one Euclidean parametrization of the hyperbolic space which can alleviate these limitations. We further extend this Euclidean parametrization to hyperbolic hyperplanes and exhibits its ability in improving the performance of hyperbolic SVM.

During 2023, two interesting results were proven about the limit behavior of game dynamics: First, it was shown that there is a game for which no dynamics converges to the Nash equilibria. Second, it was shown that the sink equilibria of a game adequately capture the limit behavior of natural game dynamics. These two results have created a need and opportunity to articulate a principled computational theory of the meaning of the game that is based on game dynamics. Given any game in normal form, and any prior distribution of play, we study the problem of computing the asymptotic behavior of a class of natural dynamics called the noisy replicator dynamics as a limit distribution over the sink equilibria of the game. When the prior distribution has pure strategy support, we prove this distribution can be computed efficiently, in near-linear time to the size of the best-response graph. When the distribution can be sampled -- for example, if it is the uniform distribution over all mixed strategy profiles -- we show through experiments that the limit distribution of reasonably large games can be estimated quite accurately through sampling and simulation.

This paper introduces a continuous-time stochastic dynamical framework for understanding how large language models (LLMs) may self-amplify latent biases or toxicity through their own chain-of-thought reasoning. The model posits an instantaneous "severity" variable x(t) in [0,1] evolving under a stochastic differential equation (SDE) with a drift term μ(x) and diffusion σ(x). Crucially, such a process can be consistently analyzed via the Fokker--Planck approach if each incremental step behaves nearly Markovian in severity space. The analysis investigates critical phenomena, showing that certain parameter regimes create phase transitions from subcritical (self-correcting) to supercritical (runaway severity). The paper derives stationary distributions, first-passage times to harmful thresholds, and scaling laws near critical points. Finally, it highlights implications for agents and extended LLM reasoning models: in principle, these equations might serve as a basis for formal verification of whether a model remains stable or propagates bias over repeated inferences.

The Sherrington-Kirkpatrick spin-glass model used the replica symmetry method to find the phase transition of the system. In 1979-1980, Parisi proposed a solution based on replica symmetry breaking (RSB), which allowed him to identify the underlying phases of complex systems such as spin-glasses. Regardless of the method used for detection, the intrinsic phase of a system exists whether or not replicas are considered. We introduce a single replica method of spin-glass phase detection using the field's variation experienced by each spin in a system configuration. This method focuses on a single replica with quenched random couplings. Each spin inevitably observes a different field from the others. Our results show that the mean and variance of fields named "Spontaneous Configurational Field" experienced by spins are suitable indicators to explore different ferromagnetic, paramagnetic, and mixed phases. To classify different phases of the system with defined indicators we have developed an algorithm based on machine learning to analyze the desired samples.

We introduce a new family of physics-inspired generative models termed PFGM++ that unifies diffusion models and Poisson Flow Generative Models (PFGM). These models realize generative trajectories for N dimensional data by embedding paths in N{+}D dimensional space while still controlling the progression with a simple scalar norm of the D additional variables. The new models reduce to PFGM when D{=}1 and to diffusion models when D{to}infty. The flexibility of choosing D allows us to trade off robustness against rigidity as increasing D results in more concentrated coupling between the data and the additional variable norms. We dispense with the biased large batch field targets used in PFGM and instead provide an unbiased perturbation-based objective similar to diffusion models. To explore different choices of D, we provide a direct alignment method for transferring well-tuned hyperparameters from diffusion models (D{to} infty) to any finite D values. Our experiments show that models with finite D can be superior to previous state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR-10/FFHQ 64{times}64 datasets, with FID scores of 1.91/2.43 when D{=}2048/128. In class-conditional setting, D{=}2048 yields current state-of-the-art FID of 1.74 on CIFAR-10. In addition, we demonstrate that models with smaller D exhibit improved robustness against modeling errors. Code is available at https://github.com/Newbeeer/pfgmpp

Machine learning algorithms relying on deep neural networks recently allowed a great leap forward in artificial intelligence. Despite the popularity of their applications, the efficiency of these algorithms remains largely unexplained from a theoretical point of view. The mathematical description of learning problems involves very large collections of interacting random variables, difficult to handle analytically as well as numerically. This complexity is precisely the object of study of statistical physics. Its mission, originally pointed towards natural systems, is to understand how macroscopic behaviors arise from microscopic laws. Mean-field methods are one type of approximation strategy developed in this view. We review a selection of classical mean-field methods and recent progress relevant for inference in neural networks. In particular, we remind the principles of derivations of high-temperature expansions, the replica method and message passing algorithms, highlighting their equivalences and complementarities. We also provide references for past and current directions of research on neural networks relying on mean-field methods.

Active matter systems, from self-propelled colloids to motile bacteria, are characterized by the conversion of free energy into useful work at the microscopic scale. These systems generically involve physics beyond the reach of equilibrium statistical mechanics, and a persistent challenge has been to understand the nature of their nonequilibrium states. The entropy production rate and the magnitude of the steady-state probability current provide quantitative ways to do so by measuring the breakdown of time-reversal symmetry and the strength of nonequilibrium transport of measure. Yet, their efficient computation has remained elusive, as they depend on the system's unknown and high-dimensional probability density. Here, building upon recent advances in generative modeling, we develop a deep learning framework that estimates the score of this density. We show that the score, together with the microscopic equations of motion, gives direct access to the entropy production rate, the probability current, and their decomposition into local contributions from individual particles, spatial regions, and degrees of freedom. To represent the score, we introduce a novel, spatially-local transformer-based network architecture that learns high-order interactions between particles while respecting their underlying permutation symmetry. We demonstrate the broad utility and scalability of the method by applying it to several high-dimensional systems of interacting active particles undergoing motility-induced phase separation (MIPS). We show that a single instance of our network trained on a system of 4096 particles at one packing fraction can generalize to other regions of the phase diagram, including systems with as many as 32768 particles. We use this observation to quantify the spatial structure of the departure from equilibrium in MIPS as a function of the number of particles and the packing fraction.

Chemical transport models (CTMs), which simulate air pollution transport, transformation, and removal, are computationally expensive, largely because of the computational intensity of the chemical mechanisms: systems of coupled differential equations representing atmospheric chemistry. Here we investigate the potential for machine learning to reproduce the behavior of a chemical mechanism, yet with reduced computational expense. We create a 17-layer residual multi-target regression neural network to emulate the Carbon Bond Mechanism Z (CBM-Z) gas-phase chemical mechanism. We train the network to match CBM-Z predictions of changes in concentrations of 77 chemical species after one hour, given a range of chemical and meteorological input conditions, which it is able to do with root-mean-square error (RMSE) of less than 1.97 ppb (median RMSE = 0.02 ppb), while achieving a 250x computational speedup. An additional 17x speedup (total 4250x speedup) is achieved by running the neural network on a graphics-processing unit (GPU). The neural network is able to reproduce the emergent behavior of the chemical system over diurnal cycles using Euler integration, but additional work is needed to constrain the propagation of errors as simulation time progresses.

In the context of science, the well-known adage "a picture is worth a thousand words" might well be "a model is worth a thousand datasets." In this manuscript we introduce the SciML software ecosystem as a tool for mixing the information of physical laws and scientific models with data-driven machine learning approaches. We describe a mathematical object, which we denote universal differential equations (UDEs), as the unifying framework connecting the ecosystem. We show how a wide variety of applications, from automatically discovering biological mechanisms to solving high-dimensional Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations, can be phrased and efficiently handled through the UDE formalism and its tooling. We demonstrate the generality of the software tooling to handle stochasticity, delays, and implicit constraints. This funnels the wide variety of SciML applications into a core set of training mechanisms which are highly optimized, stabilized for stiff equations, and compatible with distributed parallelism and GPU accelerators.

We propose a machine learning-based extension of the classical binomial option pricing model that incorporates key market microstructure effects. Traditional models assume frictionless markets, overlooking empirical features such as bid-ask spreads, discrete price movements, and serial return correlations. Our framework augments the binomial tree with path-dependent transition probabilities estimated via Random Forest classifiers trained on high-frequency market data. This approach preserves no-arbitrage conditions while embedding real-world trading dynamics into the pricing model. Using 46,655 minute-level observations of SPY from January to June 2025, we achieve an AUC of 88.25% in forecasting one-step price movements. Order flow imbalance is identified as the most influential predictor, contributing 43.2% to feature importance. After resolving time-scaling inconsistencies in tree construction, our model yields option prices that deviate by 13.79% from Black-Scholes benchmarks, highlighting the impact of microstructure on fair value estimation. While computational limitations restrict the model to short-term derivatives, our results offer a robust, data-driven alternative to classical pricing methods grounded in empirical market behavior.

This article presents Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) plots, a tool for visualizing the model estimated by any supervised learning algorithm. Classical partial dependence plots (PDPs) help visualize the average partial relationship between the predicted response and one or more features. In the presence of substantial interaction effects, the partial response relationship can be heterogeneous. Thus, an average curve, such as the PDP, can obfuscate the complexity of the modeled relationship. Accordingly, ICE plots refine the partial dependence plot by graphing the functional relationship between the predicted response and the feature for individual observations. Specifically, ICE plots highlight the variation in the fitted values across the range of a covariate, suggesting where and to what extent heterogeneities might exist. In addition to providing a plotting suite for exploratory analysis, we include a visual test for additive structure in the data generating model. Through simulated examples and real data sets, we demonstrate how ICE plots can shed light on estimated models in ways PDPs cannot. Procedures outlined are available in the R package ICEbox.

We introduce marginalization models (MaMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling with tractable likelihoods by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast evaluation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of methods with exact marginal inference, such as autoregressive models (ARMs). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". Unlike previous methods, MaMs support scalable training of any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the setting of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized (log) probability function such as energy function or reward function). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including binary images, language, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MaMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MaMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the capability of previous methods. Code is at https://github.com/PrincetonLIPS/MaM.

This monograph attempts a theory of every 'thing' that can be distinguished from other things in a statistical sense. The ensuing statistical independencies, mediated by Markov blankets, speak to a recursive composition of ensembles (of things) at increasingly higher spatiotemporal scales. This decomposition provides a description of small things; e.g., quantum mechanics - via the Schrodinger equation, ensembles of small things - via statistical mechanics and related fluctuation theorems, through to big things - via classical mechanics. These descriptions are complemented with a Bayesian mechanics for autonomous or active things. Although this work provides a formulation of every thing, its main contribution is to examine the implications of Markov blankets for self-organisation to nonequilibrium steady-state. In brief, we recover an information geometry and accompanying free energy principle that allows one to interpret the internal states of something as representing or making inferences about its external states. The ensuing Bayesian mechanics is compatible with quantum, statistical and classical mechanics and may offer a formal description of lifelike particles.

We study the problem of designing models for machine learning tasks defined on sets. In contrast to traditional approach of operating on fixed dimensional vectors, we consider objective functions defined on sets that are invariant to permutations. Such problems are widespread, ranging from estimation of population statistics poczos13aistats, to anomaly detection in piezometer data of embankment dams Jung15Exploration, to cosmology Ntampaka16Dynamical,Ravanbakhsh16ICML1. Our main theorem characterizes the permutation invariant functions and provides a family of functions to which any permutation invariant objective function must belong. This family of functions has a special structure which enables us to design a deep network architecture that can operate on sets and which can be deployed on a variety of scenarios including both unsupervised and supervised learning tasks. We also derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for permutation equivariance in deep models. We demonstrate the applicability of our method on population statistic estimation, point cloud classification, set expansion, and outlier detection.

The precise equivalence between discretized Euclidean field theories and a certain class of probabilistic graphical models, namely the mathematical framework of Markov random fields, opens up the opportunity to investigate machine learning from the perspective of quantum field theory. In this contribution we will demonstrate, through the Hammersley-Clifford theorem, that the φ^{4} scalar field theory on a square lattice satisfies the local Markov property and can therefore be recast as a Markov random field. We will then derive from the φ^{4} theory machine learning algorithms and neural networks which can be viewed as generalizations of conventional neural network architectures. Finally, we will conclude by presenting applications based on the minimization of an asymmetric distance between the probability distribution of the φ^{4} machine learning algorithms and target probability distributions.

We develop a discipline-agnostic emergence calculus that treats theories as fixed points of idempotent operators acting on descriptions. We show that, once processes are composable but access to the underlying system is mediated by a bounded observational interface, a canonical toolkit of six closure-changing primitives (P1--P6) is unavoidable. The framework unifies order-theoretic closure operators with dynamics-induced endomaps E_{τ,f} built from a Markov kernel, a coarse-graining lens, and a time scale τ. We introduce a computable total-variation idempotence defect for E_{τ,f}; small retention error implies approximate idempotence and yields stable "objects" packaged at the chosen τ within a fixed lens. For directionality, we define an arrow-of-time functional as the path-space KL divergence between forward and time-reversed trajectories and prove it is monotone under coarse-graining (data processing); we also formalize a protocol-trap audit showing that protocol holonomy alone cannot sustain asymmetry without a genuine affinity in the lifted dynamics. Finally, we prove a finite forcing-style counting lemma: relative to a partition-based theory, definable predicate extensions are exponentially rare, giving a clean anti-saturation mechanism for strict ladder climbing.

This paper develops a comprehensive theoretical framework that imports concepts from stochastic thermodynamics to model price impact and characterize the feasibility of round-trip arbitrage in financial markets. A trading cycle is treated as a non-equilibrium thermodynamic process, where price impact represents dissipative work and market noise plays the role of thermal fluctuations. The paper proves a Financial Second Law: under general convex impact functionals, any round-trip trading strategy yields non-positive expected profit. This structural constraint is complemented by a fluctuation theorem that bounds the probability of profitable cycles in terms of dissipated work and market volatility. The framework introduces a statistical ensemble of trading strategies governed by a Gibbs measure, leading to a free energy decomposition that connects expected cost, strategy entropy, and a market temperature parameter. The framework provides rigorous, testable inequalities linking microstructural impact to macroscopic no-arbitrage conditions, offering a novel physics-inspired perspective on market efficiency. The paper derives explicit analytical results for prototypical trading strategies and discusses empirical validation protocols.

Pre-trained models (PTMs) are machine learning models that have been trained in advance, often on large-scale data, and can be reused for new tasks, thereby reducing the need for costly training from scratch. Their widespread adoption introduces a new class of software dependency, which we term Software Dependencies 2.0, extending beyond conventional libraries to learned behaviors embodied in trained models and their associated artifacts. The integration of PTMs as software dependencies in real projects remains unclear, potentially threatening maintainability and reliability of modern software systems that increasingly rely on them. Objective: In this study, we investigate Software Dependencies 2.0 in open-source software (OSS) projects by examining the reuse of PTMs, with a focus on how developers manage and integrate these models. Specifically, we seek to understand: (1) how OSS projects structure and document their PTM dependencies; (2) what stages and organizational patterns emerge in the reuse pipelines of PTMs within these projects; and (3) the interactions among PTMs and other learned components across pipeline stages. We conduct a mixed-methods analysis of a statistically significant random sample of 401 GitHub repositories from the PeaTMOSS dataset (28,575 repositories reusing PTMs from Hugging Face and PyTorch Hub). We quantitatively examine PTM reuse by identifying patterns and qualitatively investigate how developers integrate and manage these models in practice.

Global solar photospheric magnetic maps play a critical role in solar and heliospheric physics research. Routine magnetograph measurements of the field occur only along the Sun-Earth line, leaving the far-side of the Sun unobserved. Surface Flux Transport (SFT) models attempt to mitigate this by modeling the surface evolution of the field. While such models have long been established in the community (with several releasing public full-Sun maps), none are open source. The Open Source Flux Transport (OFT) model seeks to fill this gap by providing an open and user-extensible SFT model that also builds on the knowledge of previous models with updated numerical and data acquisition/assimilation methods along with additional user-defined features. In this first of a series of papers on OFT, we introduce its computational core: the High-performance Flux Transport (HipFT) code (github.com/predsci/hipft). HipFT implements advection, diffusion, and data assimilation in a modular design that supports a variety of flow models and options. It can compute multiple realizations in a single run across model parameters to create ensembles of maps for uncertainty quantification and is high-performance through the use of multi-CPU and multi-GPU parallelism. HipFT is designed to enable users to easily write extensions, enhancing its flexibility and adaptability. We describe HipFT's model features, validations of its numerical methods, performance of its parallel and GPU-accelerated code implementation, analysis/post-processing options, and example use cases.

Using the weights of trained Neural Network (NN) models as data modality has recently gained traction as a research field - dubbed Weight Space Learning (WSL). Multiple recent works propose WSL methods to analyze models, evaluate methods, or synthesize weights. Weight space learning methods require populations of trained models as datasets for development and evaluation. However, existing collections of models - called `model zoos' - are unstructured or follow a rudimentary definition of diversity. In parallel, work rooted in statistical physics has identified phases and phase transitions in NN models. Models are homogeneous within the same phase but qualitatively differ from one phase to another. We combine the idea of `model zoos' with phase information to create a controlled notion of diversity in populations. We introduce 12 large-scale zoos that systematically cover known phases and vary over model architecture, size, and datasets. These datasets cover different modalities, such as computer vision, natural language processing, and scientific ML. For every model, we compute loss landscape metrics and validate full coverage of the phases. With this dataset, we provide the community with a resource with a wide range of potential applications for WSL and beyond. Evidence suggests the loss landscape phase plays a role in applications such as model training, analysis, or sparsification. We demonstrate this in an exploratory study of the downstream methods like transfer learning or model weights averaging.

In [7] Krotov and Hopfield suggest a generalized version of the well-known Hopfield model of associative memory. In their version they consider a polynomial interaction function and claim that this increases the storage capacity of the model. We prove this claim and take the "limit" as the degree of the polynomial becomes infinite, i.e. an exponential interaction function. With this interaction we prove that model has an exponential storage capacity in the number of neurons, yet the basins of attraction are almost as large as in the standard Hopfield model.

Random network models play a prominent role in modeling, analyzing and understanding complex phenomena on real-life networks. However, a key property of networks is often neglected: many real-world networks exhibit spatial structure, the tendency of a node to select neighbors with a probability depending on physical distance. Here, we introduce a class of random spatial networks (RSNs) which generalizes many existing random network models but adds spatial structure. In these networks, nodes are placed randomly in space and joined in edges with a probability depending on their distance and their individual expected degrees, in a manner that crucially remains analytically tractable. We use this network class to propose a new generalization of small-world networks, where the average shortest path lengths in the graph are small, as in classical Watts-Strogatz small-world networks, but with close spatial proximity of nodes that are neighbors in the network playing the role of large clustering. Small-world effects are demonstrated on these spatial small-world networks without clustering. We are able to derive partial integro-differential equations governing susceptible-infectious-recovered disease spreading through an RSN, and we demonstrate the existence of traveling wave solutions. If the distance kernel governing edge placement decays slower than exponential, the population-scale dynamics are dominated by long-range hops followed by local spread of traveling waves. This provides a theoretical modeling framework for recent observations of how epidemics like Ebola evolve in modern connected societies, with long-range connections seeding new focal points from which the epidemic locally spreads in a wavelike manner.

Singular limits for the following indirect signalling chemotaxis system align* \left\{ array{lllllll} \partial_t n = \Delta n - \nabla \cdot (n \nabla c ) & in \Omega\times(0,\infty) , \varepsilon \partial_t c = \Delta c - c + w & in \Omega\times(0,\infty), \varepsilon \partial_t w = \tau \Delta w - w + n & in \Omega\times (0,\infty), \partial_\nu n = \partial_\nu c = \partial_\nu w = 0, &on \partial\Omega\times (0,\infty) %(n,c,w)_{t=0} = (n_0,c_0,w_0) & on \Omega, array \right. align* are investigated. More precisely, we study parabolic-elliptic simplification, or PES, varepsilonto 0^+ with fixed tau>0 up to the critical dimension N=4, and indirect-direct simplification, or IDS, (varepsilon,tau)to (0^+,0^+) up to the critical dimension N=2. These are relevant in biological situations where the signalling process is on a much faster time scale compared to the species diffusion and all interactions. Showing singular limits in critical dimensions is challenging. To deal with the PES, we carefully combine the entropy function, an Adam-type inequality, the regularisation of slow evolution, and an energy equation method to obtain strong convergence in representative spaces. For the IDS, a bootstrap argument concerning the L^p-energy function is devised, which allows us to obtain suitable uniform bounds for the singular limits. Moreover, in both scenarios, we also present the convergence rates, where the effect of the initial layer and the convergence to the critical manifold are also revealed.

Accurate epidemic forecasting is crucial for outbreak preparedness, but existing data-driven models are often brittle. Typically trained on a single pathogen, they struggle with data scarcity during new outbreaks and fail under distribution shifts caused by viral evolution or interventions. However, decades of surveillance data and the design of various compartmental models from diverse diseases offer an untapped source of transferable knowledge. To leverage the collective lessons from history, we propose CAPE, the first open-source pre-trained model for epidemic forecasting. Unlike existing time series foundation models that overlook epidemiological challenges, CAPE models epidemic dynamics as mixtures of latent compartmental population states, termed compartmental prototypes. It models a flexible dictionary of compartment prototypes directly from a large collection of simulation data, enabling each outbreak to be expressed as a time-varying mixture that links observed infections to latent population states. To promote robust generalization, CAPE adopts the next-token-prediction paradigm during pre-training with lightweight epidemic-aware regularization that aligns the learned prototypes with epidemiological semantics. On a comprehensive benchmark spanning 17 diseases, CAPE significantly outperforms strong baselines with zero-shot forecasting. This work represents a principled step toward pre-trained epidemic models that are both transferable and epidemiologically grounded. We provide our code in: https://github.com/nuuuh/CAPE.

To model high-risk traffic densities a cellular automaton model is constructed, exhibiting Ising model-like properties. The attraction-repulsion forces between vehicles are evaluated as coupling, and the coupling function p(1-p)=g/8, where p is the initial distribution of cells with state 1, and g is the Moore neighbor count, which has roots cos^2(π/8) and sin^2(π/8) for g=1. This is achieved without the use of any trigonometric functions in the code. From the roots, the tangent polynomial tan^2(x) + tan(x) emerges. Kramers-Wannier duality is recovered and it is conjectured that the 1/2 difference between the roots serves as a fixed point for a projection mechanism from the 2-dimensional Ising model onto a 1-dimensional Ising chain through the Gudermannian function. The sigmoid evaluated at the proposed fixed point is substituted into the derivative of the logistic coupling function, σ(1/2)(1-σ(1/2)), yielding a numerical approximation to the three-dimensional Ising inverse critical coupling. Finally, the results are linked to risk densities in traffic and vehicle types, accounting for the amplification of fatal accidents.

This paper discusses a simple and explicit toy-model example of the categorical Hopfield equations introduced in previous work of Manin and the author. These describe dynamical assignments of resources to networks, where resources are objects in unital symmetric monoidal categories and assignments are realized by summing functors. The special case discussed here is based on computational resources (computational models of neurons) as objects in a category of DNNs, with a simple choice of the endofunctors defining the Hopfield equations that reproduce the usual updating of the weights in DNNs by gradient descent.

We study a three-species competitive Lotka--Volterra system with cyclic dominance, motivated by rock--paper--scissors interactions in ecological communities. The model contains a singularly strong interaction coefficient of order 1/ε, representing a regime in which one species exerts a much stronger competitive pressure on another. We show that, despite this strong asymmetry, the cyclic dominance mechanism persists. Our main result is a quantitative description of one complete dominance pattern in the singular regime 0<εll 1. Starting near the state where the third species dominates, we prove that the solution successively passes near the dominance states of the second and first species before returning to a comparable configuration. We obtain logarithmic estimates for the return time and for the population densities at the return section. In particular, although one species becomes extremely small at the beginning and at the end of each pattern, it recovers to an order-one density during the cycle. We then prove that this pattern repeats indefinitely and that the omega-limit set is composed of three heteroclinic orbits on the boundary of the positive orthant, connecting the three single-species equilibria. Thus the long-time behavior is cyclic but aperiodic, with increasingly long excursions near successive single-species states.

High-dimensional count data are common in scientific applications, but most diffusion and flow models are designed for continuous or categorical data, and generation often requires many sequential model evaluations. We propose Count Flow Map, a generative model that learns finite-time transitions directly in count space for one- or few-step generation. Our model directly learns stochastic transitions over finite time intervals, using Poisson births and Binomial deaths to preserve nonnegative integer counts without a predefined maximum. These transition models are trained to match the underlying local birth--death dynamics and to maintain consistency across step sizes. We characterize the connection between local dynamics and finite-time transition consistency and derive a bound on the generation error. After validating Count Flow Map in several simulations, including a high-dimensional, high-count setting, we apply it to single-cell drug perturbation prediction and neural population forecasting, where it captures perturbation responses and supports forecasts of high-activity events with only one or a few model evaluations. Together, these experiments demonstrate that Count Flow Map enables high-quality generation directly in count space across inference budgets, from one-step to few-step generation, using a single trained model.

Several machine learning models are defined for inputs of any size, such as graphs with different numbers of nodes and point clouds containing varying numbers of points. The universality properties of such any-dimensional models remain poorly understood, as universality is traditionally studied for models accepting inputs of a fixed size, defined on a compact subset of their domain. In sharp contrast, any-dimensional models can be viewed as sequences of functions defined on growing-sized inputs, and it is not clear in which sense they can be universal. We develop a systematic approach to establish any-dimensional universality, by identifying any-dimensional functions with a unique function taking inputs in a suitable infinite-dimensional limit space containing inputs of all finite sizes as well as their limits. Using the symmetries of these inputs and relations between inputs of different sizes, we show that this limit space admits a natural topology with rich families of compact sets on which any-dimensional universality can be established. We illustrate our approach by showing that several existing architectures fail to be universal, and we propose simple modifications that restore universality.

Modern deep neural networks (DNNs) represent a formidable challenge for theorists: according to the commonly accepted probabilistic framework that describes their performance, these architectures should overfit due to the huge number of parameters to train, but in practice they do not. Here we employ results from replica mean field theory to compute the generalisation gap of machine learning models with quenched features, in the teacher-student scenario and for regression problems with quadratic loss function. Notably, this framework includes the case of DNNs where the last layer is optimised given a specific realisation of the remaining weights. We show how these results -- combined with ideas from statistical learning theory -- provide a stringent asymptotic upper bound on the generalisation gap of fully trained DNN as a function of the size of the dataset P. In particular, in the limit of large P and N_{out} (where N_out is the size of the last layer) and N_out ll P, the generalisation gap approaches zero faster than 2 N_out/P, for any choice of both architecture and teacher function. Notably, this result greatly improves existing bounds from statistical learning theory. We test our predictions on a broad range of architectures, from toy fully-connected neural networks with few hidden layers to state-of-the-art deep convolutional neural networks.

Many of society's most pressing challenges, from pandemic response to supply chain disruptions to climate adaptation, emerge from the collective behavior of millions of autonomous agents making decisions over time. Large Population Models (LPMs) offer an approach to understand these complex systems by simulating entire populations with realistic behaviors and interactions at unprecedented scale. LPMs extend traditional modeling approaches through three key innovations: computational methods that efficiently simulate millions of agents simultaneously, mathematical frameworks that learn from diverse real-world data streams, and privacy-preserving communication protocols that bridge virtual and physical environments. This allows researchers to observe how agent behavior aggregates into system-level outcomes and test interventions before real-world implementation. While current AI advances primarily focus on creating "digital humans" with sophisticated individual capabilities, LPMs develop "digital societies" where the richness of interactions reveals emergent phenomena. By bridging individual agent behavior and population-scale dynamics, LPMs offer a complementary path in AI research illuminating collective intelligence and providing testing grounds for policies and social innovations before real-world deployment. We discuss the technical foundations and some open problems here. LPMs are implemented by the AgentTorch framework (github.com/AgentTorch/AgentTorch)