Daily Papers

Recent experimental results in B physics from Belle, BaBar and LHCb suggest new physics (NP) in the weak bto c charged-current and the bto s neutral-current processes. Here we focus on the charged-current case and specifically on the decay modes Bto D^{*+}ell^- barν with ell = e, μ, and τ. The world averages of the ratios R_D and R_D^{*} currently differ from the Standard Model (SM) by 3.4σ while ΔA_{FB} = A_{FB}(Bto D^{*} μν) - A_{FB} (Bto D^{*} e ν) is found to be 4.1σ away from the SM prediction in an analysis of 2019 Belle data. These intriguing results suggest an urgent need for improved simulation and analysis techniques in Bto D^{*+}ell^- barν decays. Here we describe a Monte Carlo Event-generator tool based on EVTGEN developed to allow simulation of the NP signatures in Bto D^*ell^- ν, which arise due to the interference between the SM and NP amplitudes. As a demonstration of the proposed approach, we exhibit some examples of NP couplings that are consistent with current data and could explain the ΔA_{FB} anomaly in Bto D^*ell^- ν while remaining consistent with other constraints. We show that the Δ-type observables such as ΔA_{FB} and ΔS_5 eliminate most QCD uncertainties from form factors and allow for clean measurements of NP. We introduce correlated observables that improve the sensitivity to NP. We discuss prospects for improved observables sensitive to NP couplings with the expected 50 ab^{-1} of Belle II data, which seems to be ideally suited for this class of measurements.

The production of a top-quark pair, the heaviest known elementary particle, in association with a light jet is a key process for studying the properties of the Standard Model of Particle Physics. Due to its significance as a signal process with considerable sensitivity to the top-quark mass and as a background process for new physics searches, it is crucial to predict differential cross sections with high precision. In this article, we present, for the first time, predictions for various kinematical observables at next-to-next-to-leading order in Quantum Chromodynamics. The perturbative behavior is analyzed, and uncertainties arising from missing higher-order contributions are substantially reduced. The necessary two-loop amplitudes have been evaluated in the leading-color approximation, and we provide estimates for the impact of the missing contributions.

We perform a lattice QCD calculation of the hadronic light-by-light contribution to (g-2)_μ at the SU(3) flavor-symmetric point m_π=m_Ksimeq 420,MeV. The representation used is based on coordinate-space perturbation theory, with all QED elements of the relevant Feynman diagrams implemented in continuum, infinite Euclidean space. As a consequence, the effect of using finite lattices to evaluate the QCD four-point function of the electromagnetic current is exponentially suppressed. Thanks to the SU(3)-flavor symmetry, only two topologies of diagrams contribute, the fully connected and the leading disconnected. We show the equivalence in the continuum limit of two methods of computing the connected contribution, and introduce a sparse-grid technique for computing the disconnected contribution. Thanks to our previous calculation of the pion transition form factor, we are able to correct for the residual finite-size effects and extend the tail of the integrand. We test our understanding of finite-size effects by using gauge ensembles differing only by their volume. After a continuum extrapolation based on four lattice spacings, we obtain a_μ^{rm hlbl} = (65.4pm 4.9 pm 6.6)times 10^{-11}, where the first error results from the uncertainties on the individual gauge ensembles and the second is the systematic error of the continuum extrapolation. Finally, we estimate how this value will change as the light-quark masses are lowered to their physical values.

We present a new lattice QCD calculation of the leading order hadronic vacuum polarization (LO-HVP) contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment a_μ. We reduce uncertainties compared to our earlier computation arXiv:2002.12347 by a factor of 1.6. We perform simulations on finer lattices allowing for an even more accurate continuum extrapolation. We also include a small, long-distance contribution obtained using input from experiments in a low-energy regime where they all agree. Combined with other standard model contributions our result, a_μ^{LO-HVP}=715.1(2.5)(2.3)[3.4] times 10^{-10}, leads to a prediction that differs from the recent measurement of a_μ by only 0.5 standard deviations. This provides a remarkable validation of the standard model to 11 digits.

The perturbative QCD corrections to the hadronic decay width of the W boson are currently known up to next-to-next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order (N^4LO), whereas the exact N^5LO correction remains unavailable owing to its formidable computational complexity. In this work, we estimate the N^5LO contributions by adopting Bayesian analysis (BA). Before performing the estimation, the Principle of Maximum Conformality (PMC) is employed to improve the precision of the initial scale-dependent perturbative series. Through recursive application of the renormalization group equation, non-conformal terms are absorbed into the strong running coupling, yielding a scheme-independent, scale-invariant perturbative series with improved convergence. The PMC procedure determines an effective coupling α_s(Q_*), with the PMC scale fixed as Q_* = 100.102~GeV at next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic accuracy. Based on the improved and more precise series, the 95.5% BA credible interval yields an uncertainty of Δδ_QCD|_{PMC, BA}^{N^5LO} = pm 1.0times 10^{-5}. The resulting hadronic branching ratio is B(Wto hadrons)|_PMC = (65.84pm 1.54)%, which is consistent with experimental data within reasonable errors.

We study charm production in charged-current deep-inelastic scattering (DIS) using the xFitter framework. Recent results from the LHC have focused renewed attention on the determination of the strange-quark parton distribution function (PDF) and the DIS charm process provides important complementary constraints on this quantity. We examine the current PDF uncertainty, and use LHeC pseudodata to estimate the potential improvement from this proposed facility. As xFitter implements both fixed-flavor- and variable-flavor-number schemes, we can compare the impact of these different theoretical choices; this highlights some interesting aspects of multi-scale calculations. We find that the high-statistics LHeC data covering a wide kinematic range could substantially reduce the strange PDF uncertainty.

In this work we estimate the first unknown QCD correction to the decay of the Higgs boson into gluons, Hto gg, in the heavy-top limit using Padé approximants built to the perturbative series and to its Borel transform. In the process, we also obtain estimates for the first unknown coefficients of the QCD β function, of the QCD decoupling relation, and of the gluonium correlator. We also provide an updated prediction for the first unknown coefficient of Γ(Hto bb). We determine the polynomial dependence of the perturbative coefficients on the number of quark flavors, n_f. We point out that the large-n_f result for Hto gg can be obtained from results for the gluonium correlator already available in the literature. The coefficient of the highest power of n_f is then imposed as a constraint and is also used as a new test to discard unreliable approximants. The method is validated through the postdiction of the last known coefficient of the series. Our model-independent estimate for the yet unknown coefficient of order α_s^7 of Γ(Hto gg) is -312pm 15 (in the mathrm{MS} scheme with μ=m_H, where m_H is the Higgs mass). With our estimate the residual renormalization-scale dependence of Γ(Hto gg) is reduced by a factor of almost 1.5.

We present an initial analysis of the properties of the all-sky image obtained by the Far-Infrared Surveyor (FIS) onboard the AKARI satellite, at 65~μm (N60), 90~μm (WIDE-S), 140~μm (WIDE-L),and 160~μm (N160). Absolute flux calibration was determined by comparing the data with the COBE/DIRBE data sets, and the intensity range was as wide as from a few MJy~sr^{-1} to >1~GJy~sr^{-1}. The uncertainties are considered to be the standard deviations with respect to the DIRBE data, and they are less than 10\% for intensities above 10, 3, 25, and 26~MJy~sr^{-1} at the N60, WIDE-S, WIDE-L, and N160 bands, respectively. The characteristics of point sources in the image were also determined by stacking maps centred on photometric standard stars. The full width at half maxima of the point spread functions (PSFs) were 63", 78", and 88" at the N60, WIDE-S, and WIDE-L bands, respectively. The PSF at the N160 band was not obtained due to the sensitivity, but it is thought to be the same as that of the WIDE-L one.

Astrophysical uncertainties in dark matter direct detection experiments are typically addressed by parametrizing the velocity distribution in terms of a few uncertain parameters that vary around some central values. Here we propose a method to optimize over all velocity distributions lying within a given distance measure from a central distribution. We discretize the dark matter velocity distribution as a superposition of streams, and use a variety of information divergences to parametrize its uncertainties. With this, we bracket the limits on the dark matter-nucleon and dark matter-electron scattering cross sections, when the true dark matter velocity distribution deviates from the commonly assumed Maxwell-Boltzmann form. The methodology pursued is general and could be applied to other physics scenarios where a given physical observable depends on a function that is uncertain.

A fully differential calculation in perturbative quantum chromodynamics is presented for the production of massive photon pairs at hadron colliders. All next-to-leading order perturbative contributions from quark-antiquark, gluon-(anti)quark, and gluon-gluon subprocesses are included, as well as all-orders resummation of initial-state gluon radiation valid at next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic accuracy. The region of phase space is specified in which the calculation is most reliable. Good agreement is demonstrated with data from the Fermilab Tevatron, and predictions are made for more detailed tests with CDF and DO data. Predictions are shown for distributions of diphoton pairs produced at the energy of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Distributions of the diphoton pairs from the decay of a Higgs boson are contrasted with those produced from QCD processes at the LHC, showing that enhanced sensitivity to the signal can be obtained with judicious selection of events.

An observable in an Effective Field Theory (EFT) is an expansion in a set of small parameters, no different than any other perturbation series. Truncating such a series expansion leaves the leading dropped term as the dominant source of error, and that term itself contains a calculable portion. We explore the partial calculation of this next-order error, available at dim-6^2 in SMEFT with no additional tools needed to simulate it, and explore how to efficiently use that partial calculation to model the next-order uncertainty in full using a minimal number of nuisance parameters. This estimate of the uncertainty of the EFT signal rate naturally imposes EFT validity by ensuring that bounds are driven by kinematic regions where truncation uncertainties are parametrically smaller than the signal. We incorporate the calculable dim-6^2 piece into the signal and cover the remaining higher-dimension uncertainty with a small set of nuisance parameters derived from a scan over Wilson-coefficient values. Our algorithm to determine the relevant nuisance parameters and distributions is automation-friendly and applies to arbitrary truncation choices. We then provide multiple examples of its implementation in high-energy collider processes focused on SMEFT truncated at O(Λ^{-2}), where the dim-6^2 piece is used to estimate the full mathcal O(Λ^{-4}) dependence. In the examples considered here the reduction of nuisance parameters is appreciable, generically reducing the nuisance parameter count by an order of magnitude compared to naïve estimates.

The strong intervening absorption system at redshift 1.15 towards the very bright quasar HE 0515-4414 is the most studied absorber for measuring possible cosmological variations in the fine-structure constant, α. We observed HE 0515-4414 for 16.1,h with the Very Large Telescope and present here the first constraint on relative variations in α with parts-per-million (ppm) precision from the new ESPRESSO spectrograph: Δα/α= 1.3 pm 1.3_{rm stat} pm 0.4_{rm sys},{rm ppm}. The statistical uncertainty (1σ) is similar to the ensemble precision of previous large samples of absorbers, and derives from the high S/N achieved (approx105 per 0.4,km,s^{-1} pixel). ESPRESSO's design, and calibration of our observations with its laser frequency comb, effectively removed wavelength calibration errors from our measurement. The high resolving power of our ESPRESSO spectrum (R=145000) enabled the identification of very narrow components within the absorption profile, allowing a more robust analysis of Δα/α. The evidence for the narrow components is corroborated by their correspondence with previously detected molecular hydrogen and neutral carbon. The main remaining systematic errors arise from ambiguities in the absorption profile modelling, effects from redispersing the individual quasar exposures, and convergence of the parameter estimation algorithm. All analyses of the spectrum, including systematic error estimates, were initially blinded to avoid human biases. We make our reduced ESPRESSO spectrum of HE 0515-4414 publicly available for further analysis. Combining our ESPRESSO result with 28 measurements, from other spectrographs, in which wavelength calibration errors have been mitigated, yields a weighted mean Δα/α= -0.5 pm 0.5_{rm stat} pm 0.4_{rm sys},ppm at redshifts 0.6-2.4.

We present a scheme to obtain an inexpensive and reliable estimate of the uncertainty associated with the predictions of a machine-learning model of atomic and molecular properties. The scheme is based on resampling, with multiple models being generated based on sub-sampling of the same training data. The accuracy of the uncertainty prediction can be benchmarked by maximum likelihood estimation, which can also be used to correct for correlations between resampled models, and to improve the performance of the uncertainty estimation by a cross-validation procedure. In the case of sparse Gaussian Process Regression models, this resampled estimator can be evaluated at negligible cost. We demonstrate the reliability of these estimates for the prediction of molecular energetics, and for the estimation of nuclear chemical shieldings in molecular crystals. Extension to estimate the uncertainty in energy differences, forces, or other correlated predictions is straightforward. This method can be easily applied to other machine learning schemes, and will be beneficial to make data-driven predictions more reliable, and to facilitate training-set optimization and active-learning strategies.

We study the pole mass for a heavy quark probe in the Gross--Neveu model, at the first non-trivial order in the 1/N expansion. We show that this mass suffers from a perturbative renormalon ambiguity structurally similar to the one in QCD. The exact large N solution leads however to an explicit expression for the pole mass which can be decoded as a trans-series, and we find that non-perturbative corrections cure the renormalon ambiguity. We also calculate the self-energy of the heavy quark beyond perturbation theory by using the OPE method with condensates, and show that the results are in agreement with the large N solution. The non-perturbative corrections to the pole mass turn out to be determined to a large extent by the condensate corrections to the self-energy. However, there is a class of corrections that has to be reorganized due to on-shell effects and cannot be obtained from the conventional condensate expansion. We discuss possible implications of this toy model for QCD.

The measure of indirect CP violation in the neutral kaon system, ε_K, is an important precision test of the Standard Model. A first-principles Standard Model prediction of ε_K requires evaluating the long-distance contribution in which the ΔS = 2 process proceeds via two ΔS = 1 operators. The non-perturbative nature of QCD in the relevant energy regimes requires a lattice QCD simulation. In this paper we present the two-loop, O(α_s) RI/SMOM - text{MS} matching factors required to renormalize a lattice QCD calculation of the long-distance contribution to ε_K.

We propose a novel method to locate the QCD critical point by constructing an expansion along contours of constant entropy density. Applying two independent analysis of lattice QCD data at zero baryon chemical potential, we find a critical point at T_c = 114 pm 7 MeV and μ_{B_c} = 602 pm 62 MeV for an expansion truncated at order μ_B^2. This approach is consistent with recent lattice QCD results up to μ_B/T leq 3. A more precise determination of the required expansion coefficients from lattice simulations will be essential for reliably establishing the location of the QCD critical endpoint.

The Princeton Axion Search (PXS) targets the mass window 0.8--2.1~μeV (corresponding to frequencies 200--500~MHz) at DFSZ sensitivity. The experiment, a haloscope, will use a cylindrical copper-plated aluminum cavity of 700~mm diameter and 1022~mm height, immersed in a 5~T solenoidal magnetic field. A 152~mm diameter tuning rod spanning the height of the cavity rotates to tune the primary mode resonance from 390--480~MHz, the frequency range for initial operations. We deduce the electric and magnetic field mode patterns using a combination of dielectric and metallic bead perturbations on the empty cavity. The measured mode frequencies and the TM_{010} field profile, as a function of tuning rod position, are in excellent agreement with simulations. We describe the effect of fabrication and assembly imperfections, including the bowing of end plates and tilt of the tuning rod. The welded seams and end-cap joints are demonstrated to not significantly degrade Q. We combine measurement and simulation to assess an uncertainty on form factor across the full tuning range. Our results validate PXS's cavity architecture and inform future searches for sub-μeV axions, in which large-volume high-Q structures are required to reach QCD sensitivity.

Very recently, the two-photon decay width of the η_b meson was computed with lattice QCD methods. This decay has not yet been measured. The knowledge of this width allows for the calculation of the η_b production cross section through photon-photon interactions in ultra-peripheral PbPb collisions. In this work we present this calculation, which is the first application of the lattice result. Since UPCs are gaining an increasing attention of the heavy ion community, we take the opportunity to perform a comprehensive study of the different ways of defining ultra-peripheral collisions and of the different ways to treat the equivalent photon flux.

Jet vetoes are central to precision measurements of Higgs-boson properties at the Large Hadron Collider, where they are used to suppress backgrounds containing hard QCD radiation. We present the first prediction for the Higgs jet-vetoed cross section at the third logarithmic order in QCD, consistently combining the next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order calculation with state-of-the-art next-to-next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic resummation. At phenomenologically relevant veto scales (p_T^{rm v}sim30 GeV) and jet radii (R=0.4), the resummation increases the fixed-order prediction by about 3%, and their combination leads to a residual perturbative uncertainty of approximately 3%. Our results mark a milestone in the precise description of jet-vetoed Higgs-production at hadron colliders, reaching the level of precision relevant for the high-luminosity phase of the LHC.

We present the new parton distribution functions (PDFs) from the CTEQ-TEA collaboration, obtained using a wide variety of high-precision Large Hadron Collider (LHC) data, in addition to the combined HERA I+II deep-inelastic scattering data set, along with the data sets present in the CT14 global QCD analysis. New LHC measurements in single-inclusive jet production with the full rapidity coverage, as well as production of Drell-Yan pairs, top-quark pairs, and high-p_T Z bosons, are included to achieve the greatest sensitivity to the PDFs. The parton distributions are determined at NLO and NNLO, with each of these PDFs accompanied by error sets determined using the Hessian method. Fast PDF survey techniques, based on the Hessian representation and the Lagrange Multiplier method, are used to quantify the preference of each data set to quantities such as α_s(m_Z), and the gluon and strange quark distributions. We designate the main resulting PDF set as CT18. The ATLAS 7 TeV precision W/Z data are not included in CT18, due to their tension with other data sets in the global fit. Alternate PDF sets are generated including the ATLAS precision 7 TeV W/Z data (CT18A), a new scale choice for low-x DIS data (CT18X), or all of the above with a slightly higher choice for the charm mass (CT18Z). Theoretical calculations of standard candle cross sections at the LHC (such as the gg fusion Higgs boson cross section) are presented.

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across various domains, including computer vision and natural language processing. However, they often struggle to accurately quantify the uncertainty of their predictions, limiting their broader adoption in critical real-world applications. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for Deep Learning seeks to address this challenge by providing methods to improve the reliability of uncertainty estimates. Although numerous techniques have been proposed, a unified tool offering a seamless workflow to evaluate and integrate these methods remains lacking. To bridge this gap, we introduce Torch-Uncertainty, a PyTorch and Lightning-based framework designed to streamline DNN training and evaluation with UQ techniques and metrics. In this paper, we outline the foundational principles of our library and present comprehensive experimental results that benchmark a diverse set of UQ methods across classification, segmentation, and regression tasks. Our library is available at https://github.com/ENSTA-U2IS-AI/Torch-Uncertainty

A dynamical model based on a phenomenological charm quark-nucleon(c-N) potential v_{cN} and the Pomeron-exchange mechanism is constructed to investigate the J/Psi photo-production on the nucleon from threshold to invariant mass W=300 GeV. The J/Psi-N potential,V_{J/Psi N}(r),is constructed by folding v_{cN} into the wavefunction Phi_{J/Psi}(cc) of J/Psi within a Constituent Quark Model(CQM) of Ref.[43]. A photo-production amplitude is also generated by v_{cN} by a cc-loop integration over the gammarightarrow cc vertex function and Phi_{J/Psi}(cc). No commonly used Vector Meson Dominance assumption is used to define this photo-production amplitude which is needed to describe the data near the threshold. The potential v_{cN}(r) is parameterized in a form such that the predicted V_{J/Psi N}(r) at large distances has the same Yukawa potential form extracted from a Lattice QCD(LQCD) calculation of Ref.[18]. The parameters of v_{cN} are determined by fitting the total cross section data of JLab by performing calculations that include J/Psi-N final state interactions(FSI). The resulting differential cross sections are found in good agreements with the data. It is shown that the FSI effects dominate the cross section in the very near threshold region, allowing for sensitive testing of the predicted J/Psi-N scattering amplitudes. By imposing the constraints of J/Psi-N potential extracted from the LQCD calculation, we have obtained three J/Psi-N potentials which fit the JLab data equally well. The resulting J/Psi-N scattering lengths are in the range of a=(-0.05 fm sim -0.25 fm). With the determined v_{cN}(r) and the wavefunctions generated from the same CQM, the constructed model is used to predict the cross sections of photo-production of eta_c(1S) and Psi(2S) mesons for future experimental tests.

The total charm-quark production cross section per unit of rapidity dσ({rm cc})/dy, and the fragmentation fractions of charm quarks to different charm-hadron species f(crm h_{c}), are measured for the first time in p-Pb collisions at s_mathrm{NN} = 5.02 TeV at midrapidity (-0.96<y<0.04 in the centre-of-mass frame) using data collected by ALICE at the CERN LHC. The results are obtained based on all the available measurements of prompt production of ground-state charm-hadron species: D^{0}, D^{+}, D_s^{+}, and J/ψ mesons, and Λ_c^{+} and Ξ_{rm c}^{0} baryons. The resulting cross section is dσ({rm cc})/dy =219.6 pm 6.3;(stat.) {;}_{-11.8}^{+10.5};(syst.) {;}_{-2.9}^{+8.3};(extr.)pm 5.4;(BR)pm 4.6;(lumi.) pm 19.5;(rapidity shape)+15.0;(Ω_{rm c}^{0}) mb, which is consistent with a binary scaling of pQCD calculations from pp collisions. The measured fragmentation fractions are compatible with those measured in pp collisions at s = 5.02 and 13 TeV, showing an increase in the relative production rates of charm baryons with respect to charm mesons in pp and p-Pb collisions compared with e^{+e^{-}} and e^{-p} collisions. The p_T-integrated nuclear modification factor of charm quarks, R_pPb({rm cc})= 0.91 pm 0.04;{rm (stat.)}{}^{+0.08}_{-0.09};{rm (syst.)}{}^{+0.05}_{-0.03};{rm (extr.)}{}pm 0.03;{rm (lumi.)}, is found to be consistent with unity and with theoretical predictions including nuclear modifications of the parton distribution functions.

We generalize the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm with a stack of neural network layers and evaluate its ability to sample from different topologies in a two dimensional lattice gauge theory. We demonstrate that our model is able to successfully mix between modes of different topologies, significantly reducing the computational cost required to generated independent gauge field configurations. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/saforem2/l2hmc-qcd .

Inclusive and differential cross sections for Higgs boson production in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13.6 TeV are measured using data collected with the CMS detector at the LHC in 2022, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34.7 fb^{-1}. Events with the diphoton final state are selected, and the measured inclusive fiducial cross section is sigma_fid = 74 pm 11 (stat) ^{+5}_{-4} (syst) fb, in agreement with the standard model prediction of 67.8 pm 3.8 fb. Differential cross sections are measured as functions of several observables: the Higgs boson transverse momentum and rapidity, the number of associated jets, and the transverse momentum of the leading jet in the event. Within the uncertainties, the differential cross sections agree with the standard model predictions.

We present a trainable framework for efficiently generating gauge configurations, and discuss ongoing work in this direction. In particular, we consider the problem of sampling configurations from a 4D SU(3) lattice gauge theory, and consider a generalized leapfrog integrator in the molecular dynamics update that can be trained to improve sampling efficiency. Code is available online at https://github.com/saforem2/l2hmc-qcd.

We extend our measurement of the equation of state of isospin asymmetric QCD to small baryon and strangeness chemical potentials, using the leading order Taylor expansion coefficients computed directly at non-zero isospin chemical potentials. Extrapolating the fully connected contributions to vanishing pion sources is particularly challenging, which we overcome by using information from isospin chemical potential derivatives evaluated numerically. Using the Taylor coefficients, we present, amongst others, first results for the equation of state along the electric charge chemical potential axis, which is potentially of relevance for the evolution of the early Universe at large lepton flavour asymmetries.

We present a holographic model of QCD to study the strong coupling constant α_s from the low-energy region to the high-energy regime. The approach uses a double-dilaton background, which breaks conformal and chiral symmetries, while large-N_c corrections are incorporated to connect the holographic description with perturbative QCD. The model leads to an infrared fixed point and provides a smooth transition to the pQCD running. The resulting background also produces linear Regge trajectories for scalar, vector, and tensor states in reasonable agreement with experimental data.

Classical deep neural networks can learn rich multi-particle correlations in collider data, but their inductive biases are rarely anchored in physics structure. We propose quantum-informed neural networks (QINNs), a general framework that brings quantum information concepts and quantum observables into purely classical models. While the framework is broad, in this paper, we study one concrete realisation that encodes each particle as a qubit and uses the Quantum Fisher Information Matrix (QFIM) as a compact, basis-independent summary of particle correlations. Using jet tagging as a case study, QFIMs act as lightweight embeddings in graph neural networks, increasing model expressivity and plasticity. The QFIM reveals distinct patterns for QCD and hadronic top jets that align with physical expectations. Thus, QINNs offer a practical, interpretable, and scalable route to quantum-informed analyses, that is, tomography, of particle collisions, particularly by enhancing well-established deep learning approaches.

It is anticipated that the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) will collect data from oxygen-oxygen (O+O) collisions at a center-of-mass energy of s_{mathrm{NN}} = 7 TeV to explore the effects observed in high multiplicity proton-proton (p+p) and proton-lead (p+pb) collisions that closely related to lead-lead (Pb+Pb) collisions. These effects include azimuthal asymmetries in particle production, as well as variations in the abundances and momentum distributions across different hadron species, which are indicative of collective particle production mechanisms induced by the interactions in the presence of a QGP. The upcoming data on O+O collisions at the LHC are expected to constrain the model parameters and refine our understanding of theoretical models. In this work, the predicted transverse momentum (p_T) spectra, rapidity density distributions (dN/dy), particle yield ratios, and p_T-differential ratios of (multi)strange hadrons produced in O+O collisions at s_{mathrm{NN}} = 7 TeV using AMPT and EPOS4 models are presented. AMPT focuses on preformed hadronic interactions, while EPOS4 incorporates a QGP phase. Stronger radial flow in EPOS4 as compared to AMPT is also observed. AMPT incorporates some flow effects, but the implementation of full hydrodynamic flow in EPOS4 appears to be significantly more effective in reproducing the existing experimental data. Both models predict the final state multiplicity overlap with p+p, p+pb, and Pb+Pb collisions.

The study of CP violation in hyperon transitions has a long history. In the early 2000s the HyperCP experiment made a major effort to seek CP-odd signals in the decay sequence Xi^-toLambda pi^- and Lambdato ppi^-, which motivated more searches. Most recently the BESIII and LHCb Collaborations have acquired or improved the upper bounds on CP violation in a variety of hyperon nonleptonic processes, including Sigma^+to npi^+ and Sigma^+to ppi^0. These measurements have not reached the standard-model level yet, but have stimulated a renewed interest in CP-violating new physics in strange-quark decay beyond what is constrained by the parameters varepsilon and varepsilon^prime from the kaon sector. In this paper, after updating the standard-model expectations for CP-odd observables in the modes Sigma^pmto Npi, we revisit new-physics scenarios that could enhance the corresponding quantities in Lambdato Npi and XitoLambdapi and apply them to the Sigma^pm modes. We find that the CP asymmetries in the latter can be significantly increased over the standard-model expectations, at levels which may be tested in the ongoing BESIII experiment and in future endeavors such as PANDA and the Super Tau Charm Facility.

This paper presents a novel end-to-end framework for closed-form computation and visualization of critical point uncertainty in 2D uncertain scalar fields. Critical points are fundamental topological descriptors used in the visualization and analysis of scalar fields. The uncertainty inherent in data (e.g., observational and experimental data, approximations in simulations, and compression), however, creates uncertainty regarding critical point positions. Uncertainty in critical point positions, therefore, cannot be ignored, given their impact on downstream data analysis tasks. In this work, we study uncertainty in critical points as a function of uncertainty in data modeled with probability distributions. Although Monte Carlo (MC) sampling techniques have been used in prior studies to quantify critical point uncertainty, they are often expensive and are infrequently used in production-quality visualization software. We, therefore, propose a new end-to-end framework to address these challenges that comprises a threefold contribution. First, we derive the critical point uncertainty in closed form, which is more accurate and efficient than the conventional MC sampling methods. Specifically, we provide the closed-form and semianalytical (a mix of closed-form and MC methods) solutions for parametric (e.g., uniform, Epanechnikov) and nonparametric models (e.g., histograms) with finite support. Second, we accelerate critical point probability computations using a parallel implementation with the VTK-m library, which is platform portable. Finally, we demonstrate the integration of our implementation with the ParaView software system to demonstrate near-real-time results for real datasets.

We present an open-source database of superconducting quantum device designs that may be used as the starting point for customized devices. Each design can be generated programmatically using the open-source Qiskit Metal package, and simulated using finite-element electromagnetic solvers. We present a robust workflow for achieving high accuracy on design simulations. Many designs in the database are experimentally validated, showing excellent agreement between simulated and measured parameters. Our database includes a front-end interface that allows users to generate ``best-guess'' designs based on desired circuit parameters. This project lowers the barrier to entry for research groups seeking to make a new class of devices by providing them a well-characterized starting point from which to refine their designs.

We present a search for the diffuse extremely-high-energy neutrino flux using 12.6 years of IceCube data. The non-observation of neutrinos with energies well above 10 , PeV constrains the all-flavor neutrino flux at 10^{18} , eV to a level of E^2 Phi_{nu_e + nu_mu + nu_tau} simeq 10^{-8} , GeV , cm^{-2} , s^{-1} , sr^{-1}, the most stringent limit to date. Using this data, we constrain the proton fraction of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) above simeq 30 , EeV to be lesssim 70,% (at 90,% CL) if the cosmological evolution of the sources is comparable to or stronger than the star formation rate. This result complements direct air-shower measurements by being insensitive to uncertainties associated with hadronic interaction models. It is the first such result to disfavor the ``proton-only" hypothesis for UHECRs using neutrino data.

Beauty-hadron production in proton-nucleus collisions is a particularly powerful probe of cold nuclear matter (CNM) effects: thanks to the large beauty-quark mass, the production is initiated in early hard scatterings and is calculable in perturbative QCD, while the modifications observed in nuclear collisions directly constrain the nuclear parton distribution functions (nPDFs) in a kinematic region complementary to that accessed by charm. Precisely quantifying these effects is a prerequisite for isolating possible signatures of quark-gluon plasma formation in heavy-ion collisions. In this work, the production of open beauty hadrons in p-Pb collisions at s_{mathrm{NN}} = 5.02 and 8.16~TeV is studied via a data-driven Bayesian unfolding of ALICE and LHCb measurements of non-prompt D^{0} and J/ψ mesons. The unfolded p_{T}- and y-differential cross sections are mutually consistent across decay channels and compatible with directly reconstructed beauty-hadron measurements. The nuclear modification factor R_{pPb} is reported as a function of transverse momentum and rapidity, providing the first unfolding-based result spanning -4.0 < y < 4.0 of beauty-hadron R_{pPb} covering the full rapidity range, with a precision comparable to or better than that of existing data. The results are compared with calculations based on nPDFs and can provide valuable constraints for future global nPDF fits. The total inclusive B hadron production cross section in p-Pb collisions is also reported. A weaker CNM suppression is observed for beauty hadrons than for charm hadrons, consistent with the expected mass hierarchy of cold-nuclear-matter effects.

Predictions made by deep learning models are prone to data perturbations, adversarial attacks, and out-of-distribution inputs. To build a trusted AI system, it is therefore critical to accurately quantify the prediction uncertainties. While current efforts focus on improving uncertainty quantification accuracy and efficiency, there is a need to identify uncertainty sources and take actions to mitigate their effects on predictions. Therefore, we propose to develop explainable and actionable Bayesian deep learning methods to not only perform accurate uncertainty quantification but also explain the uncertainties, identify their sources, and propose strategies to mitigate the uncertainty impacts. Specifically, we introduce a gradient-based uncertainty attribution method to identify the most problematic regions of the input that contribute to the prediction uncertainty. Compared to existing methods, the proposed UA-Backprop has competitive accuracy, relaxed assumptions, and high efficiency. Moreover, we propose an uncertainty mitigation strategy that leverages the attribution results as attention to further improve the model performance. Both qualitative and quantitative evaluations are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods.

Energy-energy correlators are constructed by averaging the number of charged particle pairs within jets, weighted by the product of their transverse momenta, as a function of the angular separation of the particles within a pair. They are sensitive to a multitude of perturbative and nonperturbative quantum chromodynamics phenomena in high-energy particle collisions. Using lead-lead data recorded with the CMS detector, energy-energy correlators inside high transverse momentum jets are measured in heavy ion collisions for the first time. The data are obtained at a nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 1.70 nb^{-1}. A similar analysis is done for proton-proton collisions at the same center-of-mass energy to establish a reference. The ratio of lead-lead to proton-proton energy-energy correlators reveals significant jet substructure modifications in the quark-gluon plasma. The results are compared to different models that incorporate either color coherence or medium response effects, where the two effects predict similar substructure modifications.

Foundation Models are neural networks that are capable of simultaneously solving many problems. Large Language Foundation Models like ChatGPT have revolutionized many aspects of daily life, but their impact for science is not yet clear. In this paper, we use a new Foundation Model for hadronic jets to solve three key challenges in collider physics. In particular, we show how experiments can (1) save significant computing power when developing reconstruction algorithms, (2) perform a complete uncertainty quantification for high-dimensional measurements, and (3) search for new physics with model agnostic methods using low-level inputs. In each case, there are significant computational or methodological challenges with current methods that limit the science potential of deep learning algorithms. By solving each problem, we take jet Foundation Models beyond proof-of-principle studies and into the toolkit of practitioners.

We introduce qclab++, a light-weight, fully-templated C++ package for GPU-accelerated quantum circuit simulations. The code offers a high degree of portability as it has no external dependencies and the GPU kernels are generated through OpenMP offloading. qclab++ is designed for performance and numerical stability through highly optimized gate simulation algorithms for 1-qubit, controlled 1-qubit, and 2-qubit gates. Furthermore, we also introduce qclab, a quantum circuit toolbox for Matlab with a syntax that mimics qclab++. This provides users the flexibility and ease of use of a scripting language like Matlab for studying their quantum algorithms, while offering high-performance GPU acceleration when required. As such, the qclab++ library offers a unique combination of features. We compare the CPU simulator in qclab++ with the GPU kernels generated by OpenMP and observe a speedup of over 40times. Furthermore, we also compare qclab++ to other circuit simulation packages, such as cirq-qsim and qibo, in a series of benchmarks conducted on NERSC's Perlmutter system and illustrate its competitiveness.

While deep learning is transforming data analysis in high-energy physics, computational challenges limit its potential. We address these challenges in the context of collider physics by introducing EveNet, an event-level foundation model pretrained on 500 million simulated collision events using a hybrid objective of self-supervised learning and physics-informed supervision. By leveraging a shared particle-cloud representation, EveNet outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across diverse tasks, including searches for heavy resonances and exotic Higgs decays, and demonstrates exceptional data efficiency in low-statistics regimes. Crucially, we validate the transferability of the model to experimental data by rediscovering the Υ meson in CMS Open Data and show its capacity for precision physics through the robust extraction of quantum correlation observables stable against systematic uncertainties. These results indicate that EveNet can successfully encode the fundamental physical structure of particle interactions, which offers a unified and resource-efficient framework to accelerate discovery at current and future colliders.

We report a measurement of the E-mode polarization power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) using 150 GHz data taken from July 2014 to December 2016 with the POLARBEAR experiment. We reach an effective polarization map noise level of 32,μK-arcmin across an observation area of 670 square degrees. We measure the EE power spectrum over the angular multipole range 500 leq ell <3000, tracing the third to seventh acoustic peaks with high sensitivity. The statistical uncertainty on E-mode bandpowers is sim 2.3 μ{rm K}^2 at ell sim 1000 with a systematic uncertainty of 0.5μ{rm K}^2. The data are consistent with the standard ΛCDM cosmological model with a probability-to-exceed of 0.38. We combine recent CMB E-mode measurements and make inferences about cosmological parameters in ΛCDM as well as in extensions to ΛCDM. Adding the ground-based CMB polarization measurements to the Planck dataset reduces the uncertainty on the Hubble constant by a factor of 1.2 to H_0 = 67.20 pm 0.57 {rm km,s^{-1} ,Mpc^{-1}}. When allowing the number of relativistic species (N_{eff}) to vary, we find N_{eff} = 2.94 pm 0.16, which is in good agreement with the standard value of 3.046. Instead allowing the primordial helium abundance (Y_{He}) to vary, the data favor Y_{He} = 0.248 pm 0.012. This is very close to the expectation of 0.2467 from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis. When varying both Y_{He} and N_{eff}, we find N_{eff} = 2.70 pm 0.26 and Y_{He} = 0.262 pm 0.015.

The interaction between Λ baryons and kaons/antikaons is a crucial ingredient for the strangeness S=0 and S=-2 sector of the meson-baryon interaction at low energies. In particular, the Λ{overline{K}} might help in understanding the origin of states such as the Ξ(1620), whose nature and properties are still under debate. Experimental data on Λ-{K} and Λ-{overline{K}} systems are scarce, leading to large uncertainties and tension between the available theoretical predictions constrained by such data. In this Letter we present the measurements of Λ-K^+oplus overlineΛ-K^- and Λ-K^-oplus overlineΛ-K^+ correlations obtained in the high-multiplicity triggered data sample in pp collisions at s=13 TeV recorded by ALICE at the LHC. The correlation function for both pairs is modeled using the Lednicky-Lyuboshits analytical formula and the corresponding scattering parameters are extracted. The Λ-K^-oplus overlineΛ-K^+ correlations show the presence of several structures at relative momenta k^* above 200 MeV/c, compatible with the Ω baryon, the Ξ(1690), and Ξ(1820) resonances decaying into Λ-K^- pairs. The low k^* region in the Λ-K^-oplus overlineΛ-K^+ also exhibits the presence of the Ξ(1620) state, expected to strongly couple to the measured pair. The presented data allow to access the ΛK^+ and ΛK^- strong interaction with an unprecedented precision and deliver the first experimental observation of the Ξ(1620) decaying into ΛK^-.

Exotic hadrons are a new class of hadronic states whose properties do not allow them to be classified as conventional quark-antiquark mesons or three quark baryons. Finding new and understanding established exotic states is the most important topic in today's hadron spectroscopy and a promising avenue to advance our knowledge on Quantum Chromodynamics in the non-perturbative regime. While several high-quality reviews on the topic exist, they are all at an advanced level. The present article aims to address new-comers to the field with a simple introduction to exotic hadrons with an emphasis on the experimental studies.

We investigate the problem of determining the predictive confidence (or, conversely, uncertainty) of a neural classifier through the lens of low-resource languages. By training models on sub-sampled datasets in three different languages, we assess the quality of estimates from a wide array of approaches and their dependence on the amount of available data. We find that while approaches based on pre-trained models and ensembles achieve the best results overall, the quality of uncertainty estimates can surprisingly suffer with more data. We also perform a qualitative analysis of uncertainties on sequences, discovering that a model's total uncertainty seems to be influenced to a large degree by its data uncertainty, not model uncertainty. All model implementations are open-sourced in a software package.

Jet taggers built on the Lund declustering tree encode QCD radiation structure in the inputs and process it with graph networks. We ask whether the tree itself can also constrain the computation, and what becomes accessible when it does. For this, we construct a novel quantum-inspired Tree Tensor Network (TTN), where a single tensor core is shared among the internal nodes of the Cambridge/Aachen declustering tree, employing Lund coordinates, and with no particle-identification or detector-level information. The construction is based on a strong prior on the radiation history rather than on the constituents, complementary to compact equivariant taggers. Because the same learned map acts identically at every node, the trained model can be evaluated on truncated trees and its latent space compared across recursions, and used to localise where on the Lund jet plane the Pythia and Herwig jet representations diverge, showing the regions of generator-dependent concentration. The χ=8 model has 4014 trainable parameters against approximately 391,000 for LundNet. We evaluate boosted top tagging and quark/gluon discrimination at particle level on Pythia and Herwig samples, in both native (PythiatoPythia) and transfer (PythiatoHerwig) configurations. Despite differing in capacity by two orders of magnitude, the TTN reaches native performance close to LundNet in quark/gluon discrimination, slightly underperforming in top tagging, with a similar Pythia-to-Herwig transfer behavior in both tasks. Finally, we show the behavior of the network as a function of the bond dimension, and as a function of the perturbative scale.

The accessibility of spatially distributed data, enabled by affordable sensors, field, and numerical experiments, has facilitated the development of data-driven solutions for scientific problems, including climate change, weather prediction, and urban planning. Neural Partial Differential Equations (Neural PDEs), which combine deep learning (DL) techniques with domain expertise (e.g., governing equations) for parameterization, have proven to be effective in capturing valuable correlations within spatiotemporal datasets. However, sparse and noisy measurements coupled with modeling approximation introduce aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. Therefore, quantifying uncertainties propagated from model inputs to outputs remains a challenge and an essential goal for establishing the trustworthiness of Neural PDEs. This work evaluates various Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) approaches for both Forward and Inverse Problems in scientific applications. Specifically, we investigate the effectiveness of Bayesian methods, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and Monte-Carlo Dropout (MCD), and a more conventional approach, Deep Ensembles (DE). To illustrate their performance, we take two canonical PDEs: Burger's equation and the Navier-Stokes equation. Our results indicate that Neural PDEs can effectively reconstruct flow systems and predict the associated unknown parameters. However, it is noteworthy that the results derived from Bayesian methods, based on our observations, tend to display a higher degree of certainty in their predictions as compared to those obtained using the DE. This elevated certainty in predictions suggests that Bayesian techniques might underestimate the true underlying uncertainty, thereby appearing more confident in their predictions than the DE approach.

An accurate description of the scalar potential at finite temperature is crucial for studying cosmological first-order phase transitions (FOPT) in the early Universe. At finite temperatures, a precise treatment of thermal resummations is essential, as bosonic fields encounter significant infrared issues that can compromise standard perturbative approaches. The Partial Dressing (or the tadpole resummation) method provides a self consistent resummation of higher order corrections, allowing the computation of thermal masses and the effective potential including the proper Boltzmann suppression factors and without relying on any high-temperature approximation. We systematically compare the Partial dressing resummation scheme results with the Parwani and Arnold Espinosa (AE) ones to investigate the thermal phase transition dynamics in the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model (2HDM). Our findings reveal that different resummation prescriptions can significantly alter the nature of the phase transition within the same region of parameter space, confirming the differences that have already been noticed between the Parwani and AE schemes. Notably, the more refined resummation prescription, the Partial Dressing scheme, does not support symmetry non-restoration in 2HDM at high temperatures observed using the AE prescription. Furthermore, we quantify the uncertainties in the stochastic gravitational wave (GW) spectrum from an FOPT due to variations in resummation methods, illustrating their role in shaping theoretical predictions for upcoming GW experiments. Finally, we discuss the capability of the High-Luminosity LHC and proposed GW experiments to probe the FOEWPT-favored region of the parameter space.

The production of W^{pm}H, ZH, W^+W^-, and W^pm Z pairs probes non-Standard-Model interactions of quarks, gauge bosons, and the Higgs boson. New effects can be parameterized in terms of an effective field theory (EFT) where the Lagrangian is expanded in terms of higher-dimension operators suppressed by increasing powers of a high scale Λ. We examine the importance of including next-to-leading-order QCD corrections in global fits to the coefficients of the EFT. The numerical implications on the fits due to different approaches to enforcing the validity of the EFT are quantified. We pay particular attention to the dependence of the fits on the expansion in 1/Λ^2 since the differences between results calculated at {O}(1/Λ^2) and {O}(1/Λ^4) may give insight into the possible significance of dimension-8 effects.

We introduce Mitiq, a Python package for error mitigation on noisy quantum computers. Error mitigation techniques can reduce the impact of noise on near-term quantum computers with minimal overhead in quantum resources by relying on a mixture of quantum sampling and classical post-processing techniques. Mitiq is an extensible toolkit of different error mitigation methods, including zero-noise extrapolation, probabilistic error cancellation, and Clifford data regression. The library is designed to be compatible with generic backends and interfaces with different quantum software frameworks. We describe Mitiq using code snippets to demonstrate usage and discuss features and contribution guidelines. We present several examples demonstrating error mitigation on IBM and Rigetti superconducting quantum processors as well as on noisy simulators.

Constituent quarks in a nucleon are the essential elements in the standard ``quark model" associated with the electric charge, spin, mass, and baryon number of a nucleon. Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) describes nucleon as a composite object containing current quarks (valence quarks and sea (anti-)quarks) and gluons. These subatomic elements and their interactions are known to contribute in complex ways to the overall nucleon spin and mass. In the early development of QCD theory in the 1970s, an alternative hypothesis postulated that the baryon number might manifest itself through a non-perturbative configuration of gluon fields forming a Y-shaped topology known as the gluon junction. In this work, we propose to test such hypothesis by measuring (i) the Regge intercept of the net-baryon distributions for e+(p)Au collisions, (ii) baryon and charge transport in the isobaric ratio between e+Ru and e+Zr collisions, and (iii) target flavor dependence of proton and antiproton yields at large rapidity, transported from the hydrogen and deuterium targets in e+p(d) collisions. Our study indicates that these measurements at the EIC can help determine what carries the baryon number.

To account for the soft transverse dynamics overlooked by the k_T factorization formalism of exclusive QCD processes, we propose introducing the intrinsic transversal momentum distribution functions (iTMDs), in conjunction with the light-cone distribution amplitudes (LCDAs), to define the probability amplitude for finding a hadron state where partons move fast along the longitudinal axis while undergoing gentle oscillations in the transverse plane. We implement this framework in the calculation of the electromagnetic form factors of the pion and the proton. Our iTMDs-improved perturbative QCD predictions show good agreement with available experimental data and lattice QCD results. More importantly, we find that higher-twist, especially subleading-twist contributions, are indispensable for explaining the scaling behavior of both pion and proton form factors at intermediate momentum transfers. Furthermore, the inclusion of iTMD effects significantly improves the perturbative QCD predictions for the pion form factor in the few GeV^2.

An amplitude analysis of B^-rightarrow D^- D^0 K_S^0 decays is performed using proton-proton collision data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 9,fb^{-1}, collected with the LHCb detector at center-of-mass energies of 7, 8, and 13,Tekern -0.1em V. A resonant structure of spin-parity 0^+ is observed in the D^0 K_S^0 invariant-mass spectrum with a significance of 5.3,sigma. The mass and width of the state, modeled with a Breit-Wigner lineshape, are determined to be 2883pm11pm6,Mekern -0.1em V!/c^2 and 87_{-47}^{+22}pm6,Mekern -0.1em V respectively, where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second systematic. These properties and the quark content are consistent with those of the open-charm tetraquark state T_{cs 0}^{*}(2870)^0 observed previously in the D^+ K^- final state of the B^-rightarrow D^- D^+ K^- decay. This result confirms the existence of the T_{cs 0}^{*}(2870)^0 state in a new decay mode. The T_{cs1}^{*}(2900)^0 state, reported in the B^-rightarrow D^- D^+ K^- decay, is also searched for in the D^0 K_S^0 invariant-mass spectrum of the B^- rightarrow D^- D^0 K_S^0 decay, without finding evidence for it.

We present a technique for computing Drell-Yan lepton pair production at particle-level that achieves N^3LO and approximate N^4LL' accuracy at small to moderate transverse momentum, tree-level precision for Z+4, 5, and 6 jets, and approximate NLO EW precision at high transverse momentum. A crucial non-perturbative input, the Collins-Soper kernel, is obtained from continuum-limit lattice QCD results. High-precision theory results are recast into strictly positive event weights using an information-theoretic approach based on the maximum entropy principle.

The decays of pseudoscalar mesons to real and virtual photons as well as neutrino-antineutrino pairs are considered in the framework of the dispersive method based on Anomaly Sum Rules. The contribution of singlet channel involving the new non-perturbative gluon form factor of virtual photon B(q^2) is systematically taken into account. The detailed analysis of its dependence on photon virtuality q^2 relying on the available data for meson transition fomfactors is performed. It is shown that B has quite a nontrivial structure at q^2 sim 1 GeV^2 which may be a signal of the existence of pseudoscalar glueball with a mass about 1.5-2 GeV. The calculation of the decay to νbar ν pairs leads to the compatibility with the result of Arnellos, Marciano and Parsa of 1982, when pion decay is considered neglecting the mixing effects. The account for these effects results, however, in the enhancement of pion branching ratio by a factor of 3, while that for eta decay is larger by several orders of magnitude. It is stressed, that dependence on the pair invariant mass is entirely defined by QCD and coincides with that of the meson transition form factor. The role of obtained results for the physics at HHaS detector at HIAF is discussed.

Detector simulation and event reconstruction will be computationally expensive for future e^+e^- collider programs and are currently critical bottlenecks for accurate feasibility studies. To address this challenge, we build a Parnassus model for the CLD detector concept. Parnassus is a framework for automatically tuning a surrogate model, in our case, a conditional flow matching neural network, to emulate a full detector simulation and reconstruction. We train on e^+e^-to Zto qbar q events at s=91.2 GeV processed through a Geant4 simulation of the CLD detector concept and the Pandora particle-flow reconstruction and reproduce single-particle kinematics, particle-IDs, and impact-parameter distributions. We also examine jet- and event-level features, inclusively and split by flavor, and find excellent fidelity, significantly better than the parameterized program Delphes. Furthermore, we train a transformer-based flavor tagger on the reconstructed particle-flow constituents and show that the surrogate preserves the b/c/s/q discrimination of the full CLD reconstruction. The Parnassus CLD model achieves a generation cost of about 1.2 ms (40 ms) per event on a single GPU (CPU), over three (two) orders of magnitude faster than full simulation and reconstruction. Our model is publicly available for feasibility and design studies.

We present the RODEM Jet Datasets, a comprehensive collection of simulated large-radius jets designed to support the development and evaluation of machine-learning algorithms in particle physics. These datasets encompass a diverse range of jet sources, including quark/gluon jets, jets from the decay of W bosons, top quarks, and heavy new-physics particles. The datasets provide detailed substructure information, including jet kinematics, constituent kinematics, and track displacement details, enabling a wide range of applications in jet tagging, anomaly detection, and generative modelling.

The task of Error Prediction, namely predicting whether a model output is correct, is commonly tackled with Uncertainty Quantification (UQ). However, while uncertainty metrics capture when models lack knowledge or capacity to make a prediction, they also reflect aleatoric uncertainty, which is inherent in the model input and context. This paper presents a method for improving error prediction for Large Language Models (LLMs), by disentangling input ambiguity from UQ signal. We conduct experiments on the task of Question Answering (QA) with six UQ metrics and show that UQ metrics are more predictive of errors on unambiguous instances than on questions with multiple plausible answers. We use Gated Experts and Selective Prediction to incorporate gold and predicted ambiguity labels into the error prediction pipeline. We find that ambiguity information improves error prediction scores across model families, training and evaluation paradigms, datasets (including allegedly unambiguous ones), and sources of aleatoric uncertainty, yielding improvements of over 10 points of PRR for individual UQ metrics on standard datasets.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is vital for trustworthy deep learning, yet existing methods are either computationally intensive, such as Bayesian or ensemble methods, or provide only partial, task-specific estimates, such as single-forward-pass techniques. In this paper, we propose a post-hoc single-forward-pass framework that jointly captures aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty without modifying or retraining pretrained models. Our method applies Split-Point Analysis (SPA) to decompose predictive residuals into upper and lower subsets, computing Mean Absolute Residuals (MARs) on each side. We prove that, under ideal conditions, the total MAR equals the harmonic mean of subset MARs; deviations define a novel Self-consistency Discrepancy Score (SDS) for fine-grained epistemic estimation across regression and classification. For regression, side-specific quantile regression yields prediction intervals with improved empirical coverage, which are further calibrated via SDS. For classification, when calibration data are available, we apply SPA-based calibration identities to adjust the softmax outputs and then compute predictive entropy on these calibrated probabilities. Extensive experiments on diverse regression and classification benchmarks demonstrate that our framework matches or exceeds several state-of-the-art UQ methods while incurring minimal overhead. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zzz0527/SPC-UQ.

The last decade has seen a marked shift in how the internal structure of hadrons is understood. Modern experimental facilities, new theoretical techniques for the continuum bound-state problem and progress with lattice-regularised QCD have provided strong indications that soft quark+quark (diquark) correlations play a crucial role in hadron physics. For example, theory indicates that the appearance of such correlations is a necessary consequence of dynamical chiral symmetry breaking, viz. a corollary of emergent hadronic mass that is responsible for almost all visible mass in the universe; experiment has uncovered signals for such correlations in the flavour-separation of the proton's electromagnetic form factors; and phenomenology suggests that diquark correlations might be critical to the formation of exotic tetra- and penta-quark hadrons. A broad spectrum of such information is evaluated herein, with a view to consolidating the facts and therefrom moving toward a coherent, unified picture of hadron structure and the role that diquark correlations might play.

We investigate spectral features of bottomonium at high temperature, in particular the thermal mass shift and width of ground state S-wave and P-wave state. We employ and compare a range of methods for determining these features from lattice NRQCD correlators, including direct correlator analyses (multi-exponential fits and moments of spectral functions), linear methods (Backus-Gilbert, Tikhonov and HLT methods), and Bayesian methods for spectral function reconstruction (MEM and BR). We comment on the reliability and limitations of the various methods.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities, they still struggle with generating factually incorrect content (i.e., hallucinations). A promising approach to mitigate this issue is enabling models to express uncertainty when unsure. Previous research on uncertainty modeling has primarily focused on short-form QA, but realworld applications often require much longer responses. In this work, we introduce the task of Long-form Generation with Uncertainty(LoGU). We identify two key challenges: Uncertainty Suppression, where models hesitate to express uncertainty, and Uncertainty Misalignment, where models convey uncertainty inaccurately. To tackle these challenges, we propose a refinement-based data collection framework and a two-stage training pipeline. Our framework adopts a divide-and-conquer strategy, refining uncertainty based on atomic claims. The collected data are then used in training through supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and direct preference optimization (DPO) to enhance uncertainty expression. Extensive experiments on three long-form instruction following datasets show that our method significantly improves accuracy, reduces hallucinations, and maintains the comprehensiveness of responses.

Large Language and Vision-Language Models (LLMs/VLMs) are increasingly used in safety-critical applications, yet their opaque decision-making complicates risk assessment and reliability. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps assess prediction confidence and enables abstention when uncertainty is high. Conformal prediction (CP), a leading UQ method, provides statistical guarantees but relies on static thresholds, which fail to adapt to task complexity and evolving data distributions, leading to suboptimal trade-offs in accuracy, coverage, and informativeness. To address this, we propose learnable conformal abstention, integrating reinforcement learning (RL) with CP to optimize abstention thresholds dynamically. By treating CP thresholds as adaptive actions, our approach balances multiple objectives, minimizing prediction set size while maintaining reliable coverage. Extensive evaluations across diverse LLM/VLM benchmarks show our method outperforms Least Ambiguous Classifiers (LAC) and Adaptive Prediction Sets (APS), improving accuracy by up to 3.2%, boosting AUROC for hallucination detection by 22.19%, enhancing uncertainty-guided selective generation (AUARC) by 21.17%, and reducing calibration error by 70%-85%. These improvements hold across multiple models and datasets while consistently meeting the 90% coverage target, establishing our approach as a more effective and flexible solution for reliable decision-making in safety-critical applications. The code is available at: {https://github.com/sinatayebati/vlm-uncertainty}.

A new approach to solving random matrix models directly in the large N limit is developed. First, a set of numerical values for some low-pt correlation functions is guessed. The large N loop equations are then used to generate values of higher-pt correlation functions based on this guess. Then one tests whether these higher-pt functions are consistent with positivity requirements, e.g., langle tr M^{2k} rangle ge 0. If not, the guessed values are systematically ruled out. In this way, one can constrain the correlation functions of random matrices to a tiny subregion which contains (and perhaps converges to) the true solution. This approach is tested on single and multi-matrix models and handily reproduces known solutions. It also produces strong results for multi-matrix models which are not believed to be solvable. A tantalizing possibility is that this method could be used to search for new critical points, or string worldsheet theories.

Anomalies in transverse Ward--Takahashi identities are studied, allowing discussion of the feasibility of anomalies arising in general non-symmetry Ward--Takahashi identities. We adopt the popular Fujikawa's method and rigorous dimensional renormalization to verify the existence of transverse anomalies to one-loop order and any loop order, respectively. The arbitrariness of coefficients of transverse anomalies is revealed, and a way out is also proposed after relating transverse anomalies to Schwinger terms and comparing symmetry and non-symmetry anomalies. Papers that claim the non-existence of transverse anomalies are reviewed to find anomalies hidden in their approaches. The role played by transverse anomalies is discussed.

We present a lattice determination of the Bjorken sum rule via a Feynman-Hellmann calculation of the polarised forward Compton amplitude. We evaluate the lowest moment of the nucleon's polarised structure function, g_1, which we calculate over the range 0.5lesssim Q^2 lesssim 8 GeV^2, covering both non-perturbative and perturbative regions. We compare our calculated moments with the Bjorken sum rule, and discuss implications for the calculation of higher-twist effects, as well as evaluations of α_s(Q^2) from hadronic quantities to complement phenomenological and other lattice methods.

We describe an analysis comparing the pp elastic cross section as measured by the D0 Collaboration at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV to that in pp collisions as measured by the TOTEM Collaboration at 2.76, 7, 8, and 13 TeV using a model-independent approach. The TOTEM cross sections extrapolated to a center-of-mass energy of s = 1.96 TeV are compared with the D0 measurement in the region of the diffractive minimum and the second maximum of the pp cross section. The two data sets disagree at the 3.4σ level and thus provide evidence for the t-channel exchange of a colorless, C-odd gluonic compound, also known as the odderon. We combine these results with a TOTEM analysis of the same C-odd exchange based on the total cross section and the ratio of the real to imaginary parts of the forward elastic scattering amplitude in pp scattering. The combined significance of these results is larger than 5σ and is interpreted as the first observation of the exchange of a colorless, C-odd gluonic compound.

The collision system and multiplicity dependence of chemical freeze-out temperature (T_{rm ch}) and strangeness saturation factor (γ_{s}) are obtained by studying the particle ratios at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) energies. Here, we consider the new results in pp at 13 TeV, p+Pb at s_{rm NN} = 5.02 TeV, Xe+Xe at s_{rm NN} = 5.44 TeV and Pb+Pb at s_{rm NN} = 5.02 TeV along with the earlier results in pp at s = 7 TeV and Pb+Pb at s_{rm NN} = 2.76 TeV. A statistical thermal model is used to extract the chemical freeze-out parameters in different multiplicity classes. To understand the particle production from small to large collision systems two ensembles namely, canonical and grand canonical have been considered in this study. A clear observation of multiplicity dependence of T_{rm ch} and γ_{s} is observed. The values obtained in high-multiplicity pp collisions are found to be similar to the peripheral Pb+Pb collisions. A final state midrapidity charged particle multiplicity density of around 20-30 appears to be a threshold below which, the chemical freeze-out temperature is lower than the kinetic freeze-out temperature.

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential for creating trustworthy machine learning models. Recent years have seen a steep rise in UQ methods that can flag suspicious examples, however, it is often unclear what exactly these methods identify. In this work, we propose a framework for categorizing uncertain examples flagged by UQ methods in classification tasks. We introduce the confusion density matrix -- a kernel-based approximation of the misclassification density -- and use this to categorize suspicious examples identified by a given uncertainty method into three classes: out-of-distribution (OOD) examples, boundary (Bnd) examples, and examples in regions of high in-distribution misclassification (IDM). Through extensive experiments, we show that our framework provides a new and distinct perspective for assessing differences between uncertainty quantification methods, thereby forming a valuable assessment benchmark.

A persistent and fascinating problem at the high energy colliders are jets. Often trying to observe physics underlying the hard interactions at colliders requires experimental cuts in phase space, defining several jet or beam regions. QCD being a gauge theory that readily decays into infra-red modes, correlations between jet regions is almost inevitable, spoiling the predictivity of fixed order QCD calculations. One is faced with the task of calculating the evolution of a reduced density matrix, where successively less energetic (jet) regions are integrated out, to gain control of the calculation. I relate the decay rates governing the flow into the IR to an effective field theory expansion in soft jets, allowing a systematic and resummed calculation of these rates, while further relating them to physically observable features of the QCD cascade. To demonstrate the utility of the soft jet expansion, I present a factorization theorem for a soft subjet collinearly splitting in and out of a parent fat jet. Using the resummation properties of this factorization theorem, I elucidate the structure of the subleading non-global logs (encoding the jet correlations) in the hemisphere jet mass distribution, as well as give a collinear improvement of the leading order resummation equation, the BMS equation. I compare to other approaches to subleading resummation of NGLs, and find the collinear improvement of the leading order equation removes the need for kinematic-dependent corrections in the IR averaging procedure of the reduced density matrix, so that no further large logs can be generated in the IR. Finally I end with speculation about connections with collinear improvements of the NLO B-JIMWLK hierarchy for small-x resummation.

We propose two medium-baseline, kiloton-scale neutrino experiments to study neutrinos from LHC proton-proton collisions: SINE, a surface-based scintillator panel detector observing muon neutrinos from the CMS interaction point, and UNDINE, a water Cherenkov detector submerged in lake Geneva observing all-flavor neutrinos from LHCb. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, we estimate millions of neutrino interactions during the high-luminosity LHC era. We show that these datasets can constrain neutrino cross sections, charm production in pp collisions, and strangeness enhancement as a solution to the cosmic-ray muon puzzle. SINE and UNDINE thus offer a cost-effective medium-baseline complement to the proposed short-baseline forward physics facility.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a critical aspect of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly in high-risk domains such as healthcare, autonomous systems, and financial technology, where decision-making processes must account for uncertainty. This review explores the evolution of uncertainty quantification techniques in AI, distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, and discusses the mathematical foundations and methods used to quantify these uncertainties. We provide an overview of advanced techniques, including probabilistic methods, ensemble learning, sampling-based approaches, and generative models, while also highlighting hybrid approaches that integrate domain-specific knowledge. Furthermore, we examine the diverse applications of UQ across various fields, emphasizing its impact on decision-making, predictive accuracy, and system robustness. The review also addresses key challenges such as scalability, efficiency, and integration with explainable AI, and outlines future directions for research in this rapidly developing area. Through this comprehensive survey, we aim to provide a deeper understanding of UQ's role in enhancing the reliability, safety, and trustworthiness of AI systems.

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying uncertainty is especially critical in real-world settings, which often involve input distributions that are shifted from the training distribution due to a variety of factors including sample bias and non-stationarity. In such settings, well calibrated uncertainty estimates convey information about when a model's output should (or should not) be trusted. Many probabilistic deep learning methods, including Bayesian-and non-Bayesian methods, have been proposed in the literature for quantifying predictive uncertainty, but to our knowledge there has not previously been a rigorous large-scale empirical comparison of these methods under dataset shift. We present a large-scale benchmark of existing state-of-the-art methods on classification problems and investigate the effect of dataset shift on accuracy and calibration. We find that traditional post-hoc calibration does indeed fall short, as do several other previous methods. However, some methods that marginalize over models give surprisingly strong results across a broad spectrum of tasks.

The conventional grid-based approach used for storing and evaluating ordinary parton distribution functions (PDFs), as implemented for example in LHAPDF, becomes much more demanding for double parton distributions (DPDs). While a collinear PDF depends on one longitudinal momentum fraction and one factorization scale, an unequal-scale DPD depends on two momentum fractions and two independent factorization scales for every parton-flavor combination. Direct tabulation of this four-dimensional dependence therefore requires considerably more disk space and runtime memory. In this work, we develop a hybrid neural-network method for compact storage and fast evaluation of y-independent unequal-scale DPDs. The network compresses the reference grid by reproducing most of its values, while the original values are stored only at points where the neural prediction does not reach the required accuracy. In this way, the neural model captures the bulk of the grid, with a sparse table covering the remaining difficult points. For the GS09-based dense grid studied here, only 0.694% of the active flavor values need to be stored in the sparse table. Compared with the compressed dense grid, the hybrid method reduces the disk footprint by a factor of 10.6, peak memory use by a factor of 31.6, and initialization time by about a factor of 10.6. At the same time, its evaluation throughput reaches about 85% of the dense-grid rate. The method is implemented natively in C++ within PDFxTMDLib and requires neither Python nor PyTorch at runtime. The hybrid scheme therefore offers much lower memory and startup costs, with only a modest reduction in evaluation speed.

Despite the growing application of Large Language Models (LLMs) to theoretical physics, there is little academic exploration into how domain-specific physics reasoning ability develops while training these models. To investigate this, we perform the first academic fine-tuning study of small (7B-parameter) reasoning models dedicated specifically to theoretical physics. Because open-source verifiable training data required to train such capabilities is scarce, we developed a robust data generation pipeline that can both create synthetic problems and make existing human-authored problems suitable for model training. Selecting Quantum Field Theory (QFT) as our primary domain, we generated over 2,500 synthetic problems alongside a curated collection of human-adapted problems sourced from arXiv and standard pedagogical resources. We conduct both Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) experiments, benchmarking performance gains as well as generalization to other physics domains. We perform an extensive analysis of model chains-of-though before and after fine-tuning, to understand how reasoning errors evolve during RL and SFT. Finally, we publicly release our data pipeline, verifiable QFT training data, and sim200M tokens of QFT reasoning traces.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are employed across various high-stakes domains, where the reliability of their outputs is crucial. One commonly used method to assess the reliability of LLMs' responses is uncertainty estimation, which gauges the likelihood of their answers being correct. While many studies focus on improving the accuracy of uncertainty estimations for LLMs, our research investigates the fragility of uncertainty estimation and explores potential attacks. We demonstrate that an attacker can embed a backdoor in LLMs, which, when activated by a specific trigger in the input, manipulates the model's uncertainty without affecting the final output. Specifically, the proposed backdoor attack method can alter an LLM's output probability distribution, causing the probability distribution to converge towards an attacker-predefined distribution while ensuring that the top-1 prediction remains unchanged. Our experimental results demonstrate that this attack effectively undermines the model's self-evaluation reliability in multiple-choice questions. For instance, we achieved a 100 attack success rate (ASR) across three different triggering strategies in four models. Further, we investigate whether this manipulation generalizes across different prompts and domains. This work highlights a significant threat to the reliability of LLMs and underscores the need for future defenses against such attacks. The code is available at https://github.com/qcznlp/uncertainty_attack.

In order to exploit the full potential of the LHC and future colliders, high-precision calculations of a very wide range of observables are crucial. Automated tools for next-to-next-to-leading order calculations of perturbative scattering amplitudes are therefore a highly desirable goal. So far, we have developed several major ingredients of such a tool in the OpenLoops framework. In our approach we split the calculation of scattering amplitudes into three components: loop momentum tensor integrals, the corresponding process-dependent tensor coefficients, and the interplay of (D-4)-dimensional parts of the integrand with divergences of the integrals. In these proceedings, we present a new recursive algorithm to reduce arbitrary two-loop tensor integrals to scalar integrals, which has been implemented into an efficient numerical tool. We also implemented a first version of the subsequent reduction to master integrals, which allows for a full validation of the algorithm. We present a first successful validation computation and discuss its dependence on the precision of the externally computed master integrals.

Neural network (NN) potentials promise highly accurate molecular dynamics (MD) simulations within the computational complexity of classical MD force fields. However, when applied outside their training domain, NN potential predictions can be inaccurate, increasing the need for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ). Bayesian modeling provides the mathematical framework for UQ, but classical Bayesian methods based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are computationally intractable for NN potentials. By training graph NN potentials for coarse-grained systems of liquid water and alanine dipeptide, we demonstrate here that scalable Bayesian UQ via stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) yields reliable uncertainty estimates for MD observables. We show that cold posteriors can reduce the required training data size and that for reliable UQ, multiple Markov chains are needed. Additionally, we find that SG-MCMC and the Deep Ensemble method achieve comparable results, despite shorter training and less hyperparameter tuning of the latter. We show that both methods can capture aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty reliably, but not systematic uncertainty, which needs to be minimized by adequate modeling to obtain accurate credible intervals for MD observables. Our results represent a step towards accurate UQ that is of vital importance for trustworthy NN potential-based MD simulations required for decision-making in practice.

The lack of self-correcting codes hiders the development of boson sampling to be large-scale and robust. Therefore, it is important to know the noise levels in order to cautiously demonstrate the quantum computational advantage or realize certain tasks. Based on those statistical benchmark methods such as the correlators and the clouds, which are initially proposed to discriminate boson sampling and other mockups, we quantificationally evaluate noises of photon partial distinguishability and photon loss compensated by dark counts. This is feasible owing to the fact that the output distribution unbalances are suppressed by noises, which are actually results of multi-photon interferences. This is why the evaluation performance is better when high order correlators or corresponding clouds are employed. Our results indicate that the statistical benchmark methods can also work in the task of evaluating noises of boson sampling.

We study uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations subject to domain uncertainty. We parameterize the random domain using the model recently considered by Chernov and Le (2024) as well as Harbrecht, Schmidlin, and Schwab (2024) in which the input random field is assumed to belong to a Gevrey smoothness class. This approach has the advantage of being substantially more general than models which assume a particular parametric representation of the input random field such as a Karhunen-Loeve series expansion. We consider both the Poisson equation as well as the heat equation and design randomly shifted lattice quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) cubature rules for the computation of the expected solution under domain uncertainty. We show that these QMC rules exhibit dimension-independent, essentially linear cubature convergence rates in this framework. In addition, we complete the error analysis by taking into account the approximation errors incurred by dimension truncation of the random input field and finite element discretization. Numerical experiments are presented to confirm the theoretical rates.

Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) in Large Language Models (LLMs) is critical for trustworthy deployment. While real-world language is inherently ambiguous, reflecting aleatoric uncertainty, existing UQ methods are typically benchmarked against tasks with no ambiguity. In this work, we demonstrate that while current uncertainty estimators perform well under the restrictive assumption of no ambiguity, they degrade to close-to-random performance on ambiguous data. To this end, we introduce MAQA* and AmbigQA*, the first ambiguous question-answering (QA) datasets equipped with ground-truth answer distributions estimated from factual co-occurrence. We find this performance deterioration to be consistent across different estimation paradigms: using the predictive distribution itself, internal representations throughout the model, and an ensemble of models. We show that this phenomenon can be theoretically explained, revealing that predictive-distribution and ensemble-based estimators are fundamentally limited under ambiguity. Overall, our study reveals a key shortcoming of current UQ methods for LLMs and motivates a rethinking of current modeling paradigms.

In quantum mechanics the modulus square of the wave function is the probability of an event --- positivity is self-evident. Quantum field theory corresponds to quantum mechanics one-to-one: the wave function corresponds to the matrix element, so the probability of a process should be the modulus square of the matrix element, positive by construction. In the founding era of perturbative quantum field theory, however, Feynman, Schwinger and Tomonaga treated inclusive processes in quantum electrodynamics, where the truncation of the squared amplitude was forced by infrared cancellations and rendered harmless by the small coupling αsimeq1/137. Carried over to exclusive processes in quantum chromodynamics, where the coupling is large, this practice produced negative decay and production rates already at NLO, persisting at NNLO. We point out that for exclusive processes, whose initial and final states are colorless for QCD and electrically neutral for QED, the infrared divergences cancel amplitude by amplitude and the KLN constraint is absent, so the complete modulus square of the truncated amplitude is the proper, manifestly positive definition of the probability. We formulate amplitude-level NRQCD factorization as the systematic prescription that restores positivity, show that every amplitude-level truncated observable admits the effective representation Γ^{amp}=Γ_{LO}bigl|1+α_sπ(c_1+ic_2)+α_s^2{π^2}(c_3+ic_4)bigr|^2, and demonstrate, with the complete NNLO QCD corrections to J/ψto3γ, Υto3γ, e^+e^-to J/ψ+J/ψ and the eight exclusive charmonium production channels at B factories, that the prescription yields positive and better-converging predictions.

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) are a novel computational approach for solving partial differential equations (PDEs) with noisy and sparse initial and boundary data. Although, efficient quantification of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in big multi-scale problems remains challenging. We propose \PINN a novel method of computing global uncertainty in PDEs using a Bayesian framework, by combining local Bayesian Physics-Informed Neural Networks (BPINN) with domain decomposition. The solution continuity across subdomains is obtained by imposing the flux continuity across the interface of neighboring subdomains. To demonstrate the effectiveness of PINN, we conduct a series of computational experiments on PDEs in 1D and 2D spatial domains. Although we have adopted conservative PINNs (cPINNs), the method can be seamlessly extended to other domain decomposition techniques. The results infer that the proposed method recovers the global uncertainty by computing the local uncertainty exactly more efficiently as the uncertainty in each subdomain can be computed concurrently. The robustness of \$PINN is verified by adding uncorrelated random noise to the training data up to 15% and testing for different domain sizes.

The sensitivity to anomalous quartic gauge couplings (AQGCs) of the γγγZ interaction is studied in the μ^+μ^- rightarrow μ^+γγμ^- scattering at a future muon collider with unpolarized beams. The anomalous γγγZ vertex is described by two couplings, ζ_1 and ζ_2. The differential and total cross sections are calculated for the center-of-mass energies of 3 TeV, 14 TeV, and 100 TeV. For these values of the collision energy the 95% C.L. exclusion regions for AQGCs are obtained depending on the systematic error. In particular, for the 14 TeV muon collider with the integrated luminosity L = 20 ab^{-1} the best sensitivities are derived to be ζ_1 = 3.1 times 10^{-5} TeV^{-4} and ζ_2 = 6.5 times 10^{-5} TeV^{-4}. These constraints are three orders of magnitude stronger than the bounds obtained for the 27 TeV HE-LHC with L = 15 ab^{-1}. At the 100 TeV muon collider with L = 1000 ab^{-1} AQGCs can be probed up to (1.64 ÷3.4) times 10^{-8} TeV^{-4}. The partial-wave unitarity constraints on couplings ζ_1, ζ_2 are evaluated. It is shown that the unitarity is not violated in the region of the AQGCs examined in the present paper.

Measurements of Higgs boson production cross-sections are carried out in the diphoton decay channel using 139 fb^{-1} of pp collision data at s = 13 TeV collected by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC. The analysis is based on the definition of 101 distinct signal regions using machine-learning techniques. The inclusive Higgs boson signal strength in the diphoton channel is measured to be 1.04^{+0.10}_{-0.09}. Cross-sections for gluon-gluon fusion, vector-boson fusion, associated production with a W or Z boson, and top associated production processes are reported. An upper limit of 10 times the Standard Model prediction is set for the associated production process of a Higgs boson with a single top quark, which has a unique sensitivity to the sign of the top quark Yukawa coupling. Higgs boson production is further characterized through measurements of Simplified Template Cross-Sections (STXS). In total, cross-sections of 28 STXS regions are measured. The measured STXS cross-sections are compatible with their Standard Model predictions, with a p-value of 93%. The measurements are also used to set constraints on Higgs boson coupling strengths, as well as on new interactions beyond the Standard Model in an effective field theory approach. No significant deviations from the Standard Model predictions are observed in these measurements, which provide significant sensitivity improvements compared to the previous ATLAS results.

We consider classes of translationally invariant black hole solutions whose equations of state closely resemble that of QCD at zero chemical potential. We use these backgrounds to compute the ratio zeta/s of bulk viscosity to entropy density. For a class of black holes that exhibits a first order transition, we observe a sharp rise in zeta/s near T_c. For constructions that exhibit a smooth cross-over, like QCD does, the rise in zeta/s is more modest. We conjecture that divergences in zeta/s for black hole horizons are related to extrema of the entropy density as a function of temperature.

Quantum computers have the potential to revolutionize diverse fields, including quantum chemistry, materials science, and machine learning. However, contemporary quantum computers experience errors that often cause quantum programs run on them to fail. Until quantum computers can reliably execute large quantum programs, stakeholders will need fast and reliable methods for assessing a quantum computer's capability-i.e., the programs it can run and how well it can run them. Previously, off-the-shelf neural network architectures have been used to model quantum computers' capabilities, but with limited success, because these networks fail to learn the complex quantum physics that determines real quantum computers' errors. We address this shortcoming with a new quantum-physics-aware neural network architecture for learning capability models. Our architecture combines aspects of graph neural networks with efficient approximations to the physics of errors in quantum programs. This approach achieves up to sim50% reductions in mean absolute error on both experimental and simulated data, over state-of-the-art models based on convolutional neural networks.

The rapid data surge from the high-luminosity Large Hadron Collider introduces critical computational challenges requiring novel approaches for efficient data processing in particle physics. Quantum machine learning, with its capability to leverage the extensive Hilbert space of quantum hardware, offers a promising solution. However, current quantum graph neural networks (GNNs) lack robustness to noise and are often constrained by fixed symmetry groups, limiting adaptability in complex particle interaction modeling. This paper demonstrates that replacing the Lorentz Group Equivariant Block modules in LorentzNet with a dressed quantum circuit significantly enhances performance despite using nearly 5.5 times fewer parameters. Additionally, quantum circuits effectively replace MLPs by inherently preserving symmetries, with Lorentz symmetry integration ensuring robust handling of relativistic invariance. Our Lorentz-Equivariant Quantum Graph Neural Network (Lorentz-EQGNN) achieved 74.00% test accuracy and an AUC of 87.38% on the Quark-Gluon jet tagging dataset, outperforming the classical and quantum GNNs with a reduced architecture using only 4 qubits. On the Electron-Photon dataset, Lorentz-EQGNN reached 67.00% test accuracy and an AUC of 68.20%, demonstrating competitive results with just 800 training samples. Evaluation of our model on generic MNIST and FashionMNIST datasets confirmed Lorentz-EQGNN's efficiency, achieving 88.10% and 74.80% test accuracy, respectively. Ablation studies validated the impact of quantum components on performance, with notable improvements in background rejection rates over classical counterparts. These results highlight Lorentz-EQGNN's potential for immediate applications in noise-resilient jet tagging, event classification, and broader data-scarce HEP tasks.

To realize the full potential of quantum computers, we must mitigate qubit errors by developing noise-aware algorithms, compilers, and architectures. Thus, simulating quantum programs on high-performance computing (HPC) systems with different noise models is a de facto tool researchers use. Unfortunately, noisy simulators iteratively execute a similar circuit for thousands of trials, thereby incurring significant performance overheads. To address this, we propose a noisy simulation technique called Tree-Based Quantum Circuit Simulation (TQSim). TQSim exploits the reusability of intermediate results during the noisy simulation, reducing computation. TQSim dynamically partitions a circuit into several subcircuits. It then reuses the intermediate results from these subcircuits during computation. Compared to a noisy Qulacs-based baseline simulator, TQSim achieves a speedup of up to 3.89x for noisy simulations. TQSim is designed to be efficient with multi-node setups while also maintaining tight fidelity bounds.

Despite improvements in performances on different natural language generation tasks, deep neural models are prone to hallucinating facts that are incorrect or nonexistent. Different hypotheses are proposed and examined separately for different tasks, but no systematic explanations are available across these tasks. In this study, we draw connections between hallucinations and predictive uncertainty in conditional language generation. We investigate their relationship in both image captioning and data-to-text generation and propose a simple extension to beam search to reduce hallucination. Our analysis shows that higher predictive uncertainty corresponds to a higher chance of hallucination. Epistemic uncertainty is more indicative of hallucination than aleatoric or total uncertainties. It helps to achieve better results of trading performance in standard metric for less hallucination with the proposed beam search variant.

A selection of results for searches for exotic physics at the LHC are presented. These include a search for massive resonances, dark matter with a high energy jet in association with large missing transverse momentum, long-lived neutral particles, and narrow dijet resonances. The results are based on 20/fb of LHC proton-proton collisions at sqrt(s) = 8 TeV taken with the CMS detector.

Existing methods for uncertainty quantification incur massive memory and compute overhead, often requiring multiple models/inferences. Hence they are impractical on ultra-low-power KB-sized TinyML devices. To reduce overhead, prior works have proposed the use of early-exit networks as ensembles to quantify uncertainty in a single forward-pass. However, they still have a prohibitive cost for tinyML. To address these challenges, we propose QUTE, a novel resource-efficient early-exit-assisted ensemble architecture optimized for tinyML models. QUTE adds additional output blocks at the final exit of the base network and distills the knowledge of early-exits into these blocks to create a diverse and lightweight ensemble architecture. Our results show that QUTE outperforms popular prior works, and improves the quality of uncertainty estimates by 6% with 3.1x lower model size on average compared to the most relevant prior work. Furthermore, we demonstrate that QUTE is also effective in detecting co-variate shifted and out-of-distribution inputs, and shows competitive performance relative to G-ODIN, a state-of-the-art generalized OOD detector.

We present the quark weak-mixing component of a Froggatt--Nielsen program, with one flavon and three messengers, in which a single hierarchy parameter B (with εequiv 1/B) and a rational-exponent ``B-lattice'' organize fermion Yukawa textures. Building on companion mass-fit work, we translate the lattice into sharp predictions for quark mixing. The four-magnitude parameterization serves as a practical interface between the flavon Yukawa textures and quark weak mixing observables, yielding coefficient-free ratio tests of the lattice structure.

Machine learning potentials (MLPs) have become essential for large-scale atomistic simulations, enabling ab initio-level accuracy with computational efficiency. However, current MLPs struggle with uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability for active learning, calibration, and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. We address these challenges by developing Bayesian E(3) equivariant MLPs with iterative restratification of many-body message passing. Our approach introduces the joint energy-force negative log-likelihood (NLL_JEF) loss function, which explicitly models uncertainty in both energies and interatomic forces, yielding superior accuracy compared to conventional NLL losses. We systematically benchmark multiple Bayesian approaches, including deep ensembles with mean-variance estimation, stochastic weight averaging Gaussian, improved variational online Newton, and laplace approximation by evaluating their performance on uncertainty prediction, OOD detection, calibration, and active learning tasks. We further demonstrate that NLL_JEF facilitates efficient active learning by quantifying energy and force uncertainties. Using Bayesian active learning by disagreement (BALD), our framework outperforms random sampling and energy-uncertainty-based sampling. Our results demonstrate that Bayesian MLPs achieve competitive accuracy with state-of-the-art models while enabling uncertainty-guided active learning, OOD detection, and energy/forces calibration. This work establishes Bayesian equivariant neural networks as a powerful framework for developing uncertainty-aware MLPs for atomistic simulations at scale.

The Shannon entropy in the atomic, molecular and chemical physics context is presented by using as test cases the hydrogenic-like atoms H_c, {He_c}^+ and {Li_c}^{2+} confined by an impenetrable spherical box. Novel expressions for entropic uncertainty relation and Shannon entropies S_r and S_p are proposed to ensure their physical dimensionless characteristic. The electronic ground state energy and the quantities S_r, S_p and S_t are calculated for the hydrogenic-like atoms to different confinement radii by using a variational method. The global behavior of these quantities and different conjectures are analyzed. The results are compared, when available, with those previously published.

In many natural and engineered systems, unknown quantum channels act on a subsystem that cannot be directly controlled and measured, but is instead learned through a controllable subsystem that weakly interacts with it. We study quantum channel discrimination (QCD) under these restrictions, which we call hidden system QCD (HQCD). We find that sequential protocols achieve perfect discrimination and saturate the Heisenberg limit. In contrast, depth-1 parallel and multi-shot protocols cannot solve HQCD. This suggests that sequential protocols are superior in experimentally realistic situations.

We introduce an open-source package called QTraj that solves the Lindblad equation for heavy-quarkonium dynamics using the quantum trajectories algorithm. The package allows users to simulate the suppression of heavy-quarkonium states using externally-supplied input from 3+1D hydrodynamics simulations. The code uses a split-step pseudo-spectral method for updating the wave-function between jumps, which is implemented using the open-source multi-threaded FFTW3 package. This allows one to have manifestly unitary evolution when using real-valued potentials. In this paper, we provide detailed documentation of QTraj 1.0, installation instructions, and present various tests and benchmarks of the code.

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former comes from the lack of knowledge about the ground truth (such as about facts or the language), and the latter comes from irreducible randomness (such as multiple possible answers). In particular, we derive an information-theoretic metric that allows to reliably detect when only epistemic uncertainty is large, in which case the output of the model is unreliable. This condition can be computed based solely on the output of the model obtained simply by some special iterative prompting based on the previous responses. Such quantification, for instance, allows to detect hallucinations (cases when epistemic uncertainty is high) in both single- and multi-answer responses. This is in contrast to many standard uncertainty quantification strategies (such as thresholding the log-likelihood of a response) where hallucinations in the multi-answer case cannot be detected. We conduct a series of experiments which demonstrate the advantage of our formulation. Further, our investigations shed some light on how the probabilities assigned to a given output by an LLM can be amplified by iterative prompting, which might be of independent interest.

Precision beta decay experiments serve as powerful probes of physics beyond the Standard Model, enabling stringent tests of fundamental symmetries of nature. In particular, these experiments primarily focus on precise determinations of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix element Vud and the search for exotic weak currents, both of which depend critically on theoretical calculations of radiative, recoil-order, and isospin-breaking corrections with quantified uncertainties. In recent years, ab initio nuclear many-body methods--grounded in realistic nucleon-nucleon interactions and systematically improvable approximations--have advanced considerably in their ability to compute these higher-order corrections for various nuclei. This review provides a comprehensive overview of state-of-the-art ab initio calculations of beta-decay corrections, encompassing both radiative corrections and recoil-order terms, and examines their significance for precision tests of the Standard Model. We discuss the theoretical formalisms employed, including the integration of effective field theory frameworks with many-body approaches. Particular attention is given to recent results for superallowed Fermi decays (e.g., 10C -> 10B and 14O -> 14C) and allowed Gamow-Teller transitions (e.g., 6He -> 6Li, 8Li -> 8Be, 8B -> 8Be), where ab initio calculations have achieved unprecedented precision. We also highlight emerging calculations for unique forbidden decays, which offer complementary sensitivity to BSM physics. Finally, we outline future directions aimed at extending the reach of ab initio calculations to heavier nuclei and additional decay modes, thereby strengthening the synergy between theory and experiment in the ongoing search for new physics.

The mass composition of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays is an open problem in astroparticle physics. It is usually inferred from the depth of the shower maximum (Xmax) of cosmic-ray showers, which is only ambiguously determined by modern hadronic interaction models. We examine a data-driven scenario, in which we consider the expectation value of Xmax as a free parameter. We test the novel hypothesis whether the cosmic-ray data from the Pierre Auger Observatory can be interpreted in a consistent picture, under the assumption that the mass composition of cosmic rays at the highest energies is dominated by high metallicity, resulting in pure iron nuclei at energies above ~40 EeV. We investigate the implications on astrophysical observations and hadronic interactions, and we discuss the global consistency of the data assuming this heavy-metal scenario. We conclude that the data from the Pierre Auger Observatory can be interpreted consistently if the expectation values for Xmax from modern hadronic interaction models are shifted to larger values.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are predominantly evaluated by comparing their relative performance on a large suite of tasks. Most published results on deep RL benchmarks compare point estimates of aggregate performance such as mean and median scores across tasks, ignoring the statistical uncertainty implied by the use of a finite number of training runs. Beginning with the Arcade Learning Environment (ALE), the shift towards computationally-demanding benchmarks has led to the practice of evaluating only a small number of runs per task, exacerbating the statistical uncertainty in point estimates. In this paper, we argue that reliable evaluation in the few run deep RL regime cannot ignore the uncertainty in results without running the risk of slowing down progress in the field. We illustrate this point using a case study on the Atari 100k benchmark, where we find substantial discrepancies between conclusions drawn from point estimates alone versus a more thorough statistical analysis. With the aim of increasing the field's confidence in reported results with a handful of runs, we advocate for reporting interval estimates of aggregate performance and propose performance profiles to account for the variability in results, as well as present more robust and efficient aggregate metrics, such as interquartile mean scores, to achieve small uncertainty in results. Using such statistical tools, we scrutinize performance evaluations of existing algorithms on other widely used RL benchmarks including the ALE, Procgen, and the DeepMind Control Suite, again revealing discrepancies in prior comparisons. Our findings call for a change in how we evaluate performance in deep RL, for which we present a more rigorous evaluation methodology, accompanied with an open-source library rliable, to prevent unreliable results from stagnating the field.

This memorial tribute to Mannque Rho follows a line of thoughts and ideas that he continuously inspired and shaped over many decades: from the two-scales picture of low-energy nucleon structure to dense and cold baryonic matter as it is realized in the cores of neutron stars. Early groundbreaking concepts are recalled and updated by recent advanced analyses of the `core' and `cloud' sizes of the nucleon. Implications for dense nuclear matter are then discussed and confronted with empirical information from Bayesian inference analyses of neutron star observables.

According to the generally accepted phase diagram of QCD, at low temperature and high baryon number density the chiral phase transition of QCD is of first order and the co-existence of the Nambu-Goldstone phase and the Wigner phase should appear. This is in conflict with the usual claim that the quark gap equation has no Wigner solution in the case of nonzero current quark mass. In this paper we analyze the reason why the Wigner solution does not exist in the usual treatment and try to propose a new approach to discuss this question. As a first step, we adopt a modified Nambu-Jona-Lasinio (NJL) model to study the Wigner solution at finite current quark mass. We then generalize this approach to the case of finite chemical potential and discuss partial restoration of chiral symmetry at finite chemical potential and compare our results with those in the normal NJL model.

We present compact analytic results for tree-level amplitudes containing a t t pair accompanied by up to four massless partons, t tgg, t tggg, t tgggg, t tqq, t tqqg, t tqqgg and ttqqq^prime q^prime. The results, obtained using BCFW on-shell recursion, are based both on previous published results and on the new calculations performed in this paper. These amplitudes are sufficient to calculate the production of a tt pair and zero, one, or two light parton jets, with the option to include the tree-level decays t to b νe^+ and t to b e^- barν efficiently. Our results are part of the NNLO corrections to t t production including the decay correlations for on-shell top quarks.

We compute the cross section for the inclusive photoproduction of a pair of jets at next-to-leading order accuracy in the Color Glass Condensate (CGC) effective theory. The aim is to study the back-to-back limit, to investigate whether transverse momentum dependent (TMD) factorization can be recovered at this order. In particular, we focus on the large Sudakov double logarithms, which are major ingredients of the TMD evolution. Interestingly, the kinematical improvement of the low-x resummation scheme turns out to be a key ingredient in the analysis.

The early stage of high-energy heavy-ion collisions undergoes transient dynamics, evolving non-perturbatively from a gluon-rich to a chemically equilibrated quark-gluon plasma. We develop an effective hydrodynamic approach that casts the microscopic quark equilibration dynamics as the relaxation evolution of an effective macroscopic bulk viscous pressure. The evolution of this effective bulk viscous pressure captures quark chemical equilibration and the breaking of conformal symmetry, thereby providing a smooth onset of the lattice QCD equation of state after a few fm/c in the hydrodynamic evolution. We investigate phenomenological effects of this macroscopic description on final-state observables in Pb+Pb, O+O, and p+Pb collisions at the Large Hadron Collider.

A key challenge in reliable LLM deployment is recognizing when uncertainty reflects irreducible variability in the task rather than limitations in the model's knowledge. In language tasks, a central source of such aleatoric uncertainty is input ambiguity or underspecification, where multiple interpretations remain plausible. Existing decomposition methods estimate aleatoric uncertainty by generating multiple clarifications of the input, querying the model for an answer under each clarification, and comparing the resulting answers. We argue that answers are not necessary for identifying ambiguity: they are often redundant, add avoidable cost, and can mislead through epistemic leakage. We support this claim theoretically, and propose a clarification-only approach that estimates this ambiguity-induced component directly from the space of plausible interpretations, without answers to the clarified inputs. Using ambiguity detection as an operational evaluation across three benchmarks, this direct approach improves AUROC (63.34 vs. 60.85), reduces computational cost by 4-26x in output tokens and 2.2-3.5x in API calls, and yields estimates with substantially lower correlation with epistemic uncertainty. Overall, our results suggest that ambiguity-induced aleatoric uncertainty is better estimated from the interpretation space than from the response space.

We introduce a benchmark to evaluate the capability of AI to solve problems in theoretical physics, focusing on high-energy theory and cosmology. The first iteration of our benchmark consists of 57 problems of varying difficulty, from undergraduate to research level. These problems are novel in the sense that they do not come from public problem collections. We evaluate our data set on various open and closed language models, including o3-mini, o1, DeepSeek-R1, GPT-4o and versions of Llama and Qwen. While we find impressive progress in model performance with the most recent models, our research-level difficulty problems are mostly unsolved. We address challenges of auto-verifiability and grading, and discuss common failure modes. While currently state-of-the art models are still of limited use for researchers, our results show that AI assisted theoretical physics research may become possible in the near future. We discuss the main obstacles towards this goal and possible strategies to overcome them. The public problems and solutions, results for various models, and updates to the data set and score distribution, are available on the website of the dataset tpbench.org.

This work, together with its companion paper, Secco and Samuroff et al. (2021), presents the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints based on an analysis of over 100 million source galaxies. With the data spanning 4143 deg^2 on the sky, divided into four redshift bins, we produce the highest significance measurement of cosmic shear to date, with a signal-to-noise of 40. We conduct a blind analysis in the context of the ΛCDM model and find a 3% constraint of the clustering amplitude, S_8equiv σ_8 (Ω_{rm m}/0.3)^{0.5} = 0.759^{+0.025}_{-0.023}. A ΛCDM-Optimized analysis, which safely includes smaller scale information, yields a 2% precision measurement of S_8= 0.772^{+0.018}_{-0.017} that is consistent with the fiducial case. The two low-redshift measurements are statistically consistent with the Planck Cosmic Microwave Background result, however, both recovered S_8 values are lower than the high-redshift prediction by 2.3σ and 2.1σ (p-values of 0.02 and 0.05), respectively. The measurements are shown to be internally consistent across redshift bins, angular scales and correlation functions. The analysis is demonstrated to be robust to calibration systematics, with the S_8 posterior consistent when varying the choice of redshift calibration sample, the modeling of redshift uncertainty and methodology. Similarly, we find that the corrections included to account for the blending of galaxies shifts our best-fit S_8 by 0.5σ without incurring a substantial increase in uncertainty. We examine the limiting factors for the precision of the cosmological constraints and find observational systematics to be subdominant to the modeling of astrophysics. Specifically, we identify the uncertainties in modeling baryonic effects and intrinsic alignments as the limiting systematics.

We present the first linear polarization measurements from the 2015 long-duration balloon flight of SPIDER, an experiment designed to map the polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) on degree angular scales. Results from these measurements include maps and angular power spectra from observations of 4.8% of the sky at 95 and 150 GHz, along with the results of internal consistency tests on these data. While the polarized CMB anisotropy from primordial density perturbations is the dominant signal in this region of sky, Galactic dust emission is also detected with high significance; Galactic synchrotron emission is found to be negligible in the SPIDER bands. We employ two independent foreground-removal techniques in order to explore the sensitivity of the cosmological result to the assumptions made by each. The primary method uses a dust template derived from Planck data to subtract the Galactic dust signal. A second approach, employing a joint analysis of SPIDER and Planck data in the harmonic domain, assumes a modified-blackbody model for the spectral energy distribution of the dust with no constraint on its spatial morphology. Using a likelihood that jointly samples the template amplitude and r parameter space, we derive 95% upper limits on the primordial tensor-to-scalar ratio from Feldman-Cousins and Bayesian constructions, finding r<0.11 and r<0.19, respectively. Roughly half the uncertainty in r derives from noise associated with the template subtraction. New data at 280 GHz from SPIDER's second flight will complement the Planck polarization maps, providing powerful measurements of the polarized Galactic dust emission.

Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product between a divergence function and the posterior. Current methods such as Deep Ensembles or MC dropout underperform at estimating the epistemic uncertainty, since they primarily consider the posterior when sampling models. We suggest Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models (QUAM) to better estimate the epistemic uncertainty. QUAM identifies regions where the whole product under the integral is large, not just the posterior. Consequently, QUAM has lower approximation error of the epistemic uncertainty compared to previous methods. Models for which the product is large correspond to adversarial models (not adversarial examples!). Adversarial models have both a high posterior as well as a high divergence between their predictions and that of a reference model. Our experiments show that QUAM excels in capturing epistemic uncertainty for deep learning models and outperforms previous methods on challenging tasks in the vision domain.

Uncertainty is almost ubiquitous in safety-critical autonomous systems due to dynamic environments and the integration of learning-based components. Quantifying this uncertainty--particularly for time-series predictions in multi-stage optimization--is essential for safe control and verification tasks. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification tool with rigorous finite-sample guarantees, but its performance relies on the design of the nonconformity measure, which remains challenging for time-series data. Existing methods either overfit on small datasets, or are computationally intensive on long-time-horizon problems and/or large datasets. To overcome these issues, we propose a new parameterization of the score functions and formulate an optimization program to compute the associated parameters. The optimal parameters directly lead to norm-ball regions that constitute minimal-average-radius conformal sets. We then provide a reformulation of the underlying optimization program to enable faster computation. We provide theoretical proofs on both the validity and efficiency of predictors constructed based on the proposed approach. Numerical results on various case studies demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of efficiency, with much lower computational requirements.

Motivation: Ab initio protein docking represents a major challenge for optimizing a noisy and costly "black box"-like function in a high-dimensional space. Despite progress in this field, there is no docking method available for rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) of its solution quality (e.g. interface RMSD or iRMSD). Results: We introduce a novel algorithm, Bayesian Active Learning (BAL), for optimization and UQ of such black-box functions and flexible protein docking. BAL directly models the posterior distribution of the global optimum (or native structures for protein docking) with active sampling and posterior estimation iteratively feeding each other. Furthermore, we use complex normal modes to represent a homogeneous Euclidean conformation space suitable for high-dimension optimization and construct funnel-like energy models for encounter complexes. Over a protein docking benchmark set and a CAPRI set including homology docking, we establish that BAL significantly improve against both starting points by rigid docking and refinements by particle swarm optimization, providing for one third targets a top-3 near-native prediction. BAL also generates tight confidence intervals with half range around 25% of iRMSD and confidence level at 85%. Its estimated probability of a prediction being native or not achieves binary classification AUROC at 0.93 and AUPRC over 0.60 (compared to 0.14 by chance); and also found to help ranking predictions. To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first uncertainty quantification solution for protein docking, with theoretical rigor and comprehensive assessment. Source codes are available at https://github.com/Shen-Lab/BAL.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their reliable deployment requires effective uncertainty quantification (UQ). Existing UQ methods are often heuristic and lack a probabilistic foundation. This paper begins by providing a theoretical justification for the role of perturbations in UQ for LLMs. We then introduce a dual random walk perspective, modeling input-output pairs as two Markov chains with transition probabilities defined by semantic similarity. Building on this, we propose a fully probabilistic framework based on an inverse model, which quantifies uncertainty by evaluating the diversity of the input space conditioned on a given output through systematic perturbations. Within this framework, we define a new uncertainty measure, Inv-Entropy. A key strength of our framework is its flexibility: it supports various definitions of uncertainty measures, embeddings, perturbation strategies, and similarity metrics. We also propose GAAP, a perturbation algorithm based on genetic algorithms, which enhances the diversity of sampled inputs. In addition, we introduce a new evaluation metric, Temperature Sensitivity of Uncertainty (TSU), which directly assesses uncertainty without relying on correctness as a proxy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Inv-Entropy outperforms existing semantic UQ methods. The code to reproduce the results can be found at https://github.com/UMDataScienceLab/Uncertainty-Quantification-for-LLMs.

The wavelength-coverage and sensitivity of JWST now enables us to probe the rest-frame UV - optical spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of galaxies at high-redshift (z>4). From these SEDs it is, in principle, through SED fitting possible to infer key physical properties, including stellar masses, star formation rates, and dust attenuation. These in turn can be compared with the predictions of galaxy formation simulations allowing us to validate and refine the incorporated physics. However, the inference of physical properties, particularly from photometry alone, can lead to large uncertainties and potential biases. Instead, it is now possible, and common, for simulations to be forward-modelled to yield synthetic observations that can be compared directly to real observations. In this work, we measure the JWST broadband fluxes and colours of a robust sample of 5<z<10 galaxies using the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science (CEERS) Survey. We then analyse predictions from a variety of models using the same methodology and compare the NIRCam/F277W magnitude distribution and NIRCam colours with observations. We find that the predicted and observed magnitude distributions are similar, at least at 5<z<8. At z>8 the distributions differ somewhat, though our observed sample size is small and thus susceptible to statistical fluctuations. Likewise, the predicted and observed colour evolution show broad agreement, at least at 5<z<8. There is however some disagreement between the observed and modelled strength of the strong line contribution. In particular all the models fails to reproduce the F410M-F444W colour at z>8, though, again, the sample size is small here.

We study quantum state tomography when the unknown state lies in a trace-distance ball of radius R around a known reference state ρ. For arbitrary collective measurements, we determine the minimax expected risk and confidence radius up to universal constants, uniformly over the dimension, center spectrum, radius, and sample size. Write Γ=d(Trsqrtρ)^2+d^2R. For dge2, 0<Rle1, and nge1 copies, the expected risk is Θ(min{R,Γ/n}). At failure probability 0<δle1/3, the minimax confidence radius is \[ Θ\!\left(\min\left\{R,\frac{Γ+\log(1/δ){n}}\right\}\right). \] For varepsilonle c_0R with a universal c_0>0, the copy complexity is Θ((Γ+log(1/δ))/varepsilon^2). For the lower bound we use a weighted trace-norm witness to retain all spectral scales in a square-root perturbation family. For the upper bound, we give a direct spectral and concentration analysis of a modified existing purification-based procedure.

We study the impact of higher-order QCD corrections on Higgs production via weak-boson fusion with subsequent decays of the Higgs boson to bottom-quark pairs. We consider realistic fiducial cuts and observe large corrections in a fixed-order calculation. They arise from the interplay of the particular fiducial cuts considered and the radiative corrections to the Higgs decay subprocess. Switching to a parton-shower-matched description of the decay captures a significant portion of the corrections already at the lowest order and improves the perturbative convergence of the calculation.

Forecasting has become a natural benchmark for reasoning under uncertainty. Yet existing evaluations of large language models remain limited to judgmental tasks in simple formats, such as binary or multiple-choice questions. In practice, however, forecasting spans a far broader scope. Across domains such as economics, public health, and social demographics, decisions hinge on numerical estimates over continuous quantities, a capability that current benchmarks do not capture. Evaluating such estimates requires a format that makes uncertainty explicit and testable. We propose prediction intervals as a natural and rigorous interface for this purpose. They demand scale awareness, internal consistency across confidence levels, and calibration over a continuum of outcomes, making them a more suitable evaluation format than point estimates for numerical forecasting. To assess this capability, we introduce a new benchmark QuantSightBench, and evaluate frontier models under multiple settings, assessing both empirical coverage and interval sharpness. Our results show that none of the 11 evaluated frontier and open-weight models achieves the 90\% coverage target, with the top performers Gemini 3.1 Pro (79.1\%), Grok 4 (76.4\%), and GPT-5.4 (75.3\%) all falling at least 10 percentage points short. Calibration degrades sharply at extreme magnitudes, revealing systematic overconfidence across all evaluated models.