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May 12

An Information-Theoretic Framework for Credit Risk Modeling: Unifying Industry Practice with Statistical Theory for Fair and Interpretable Scorecards

Credit risk modeling relies extensively on Weight of Evidence (WoE) and Information Value (IV) for feature engineering, and Population Stability Index (PSI) for drift monitoring, yet their theoretical foundations remain disconnected. We establish a unified information-theoretic framework revealing these industry-standard metrics as instances of classical information divergences. Specifically, we prove that IV exactly equals PSI (Jeffreys divergence) computed between good and bad credit outcomes over identical bins. Through the delta method applied to WoE transformations, we derive standard errors for IV and PSI, enabling formal hypothesis testing and probabilistic fairness constraints for the first time. We formalize credit modeling's inherent performance-fairness trade-off as maximizing IV for predictive power while minimizing IV for protected attributes. Using automated binning with depth-1 XGBoost stumps, we compare three encoding strategies: logistic regression with one-hot encoding, WoE transformation, and constrained XGBoost. All methods achieve comparable predictive performance (AUC 0.82-0.84), demonstrating that principled, information-theoretic binning outweighs encoding choice. Mixed-integer programming traces Pareto-efficient solutions along the performance-fairness frontier with uncertainty quantification. This framework bridges theory and practice, providing the first rigorous statistical foundation for widely-used credit risk metrics while offering principled tools for balancing accuracy and fairness in regulated environments.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 10, 2025

Any2Any 3D Diffusion Models with Knowledge Transfer: A Radiotherapy Planning Study

Voxel-wise dose prediction is a critical yet challenging task in practical radiotherapy (RT) planning, as bespoke models trained from scratch often struggle to generalize across diverse clinical settings. Meanwhile, generative models trained on billion-scale datasets from vision domains have achieved impressive performance. Herein, we propose DiffKT3D, a unified Any2Any 3D diffusion framework that leverages prior knowledge from pretrained video diffusion models for efficient and clinically meaningful dose prediction. To enable flexible conditioning across multiple clinical modalities (CT, anatomical structures, body, beam settings, etc.), we introduce an Any2Any conditional paradigm utilizing modality-specific embeddings without cross-attention overhead. Further, we design a novel reinforcement learning (RL) post-training mechanism guided by a clinically-informed Scorecard explicitly tailored to institutional treatment preferences. Compared with winner of GDP-HMM challenge, DiffKT3D sets a new state-of-the-art in dose prediction by reducing voxel-level MAE from 2.07 to 1.93. In addition, DiffKT3D achieves superior image quality and preference match. These results demonstrate that transferring diffusion priors via modality-aware conditioning and clinically aligned RL post-training can provide a robust and generalizable solution for RT planning across various clinical scenarios.

  • 10 authors
·
May 9

LibVulnWatch: A Deep Assessment Agent System and Leaderboard for Uncovering Hidden Vulnerabilities in Open-Source AI Libraries

Open-source AI libraries are foundational to modern AI systems but pose significant, underexamined risks across security, licensing, maintenance, supply chain integrity, and regulatory compliance. We present LibVulnWatch, a graph-based agentic assessment framework that performs deep, source-grounded evaluations of these libraries. Built on LangGraph, the system coordinates a directed acyclic graph of specialized agents to extract, verify, and quantify risk using evidence from trusted sources such as repositories, documentation, and vulnerability databases. LibVulnWatch generates reproducible, governance-aligned scores across five critical domains, publishing them to a public leaderboard for longitudinal ecosystem monitoring. Applied to 20 widely used libraries, including ML frameworks, LLM inference engines, and agent orchestration tools, our system covers up to 88% of OpenSSF Scorecard checks while uncovering up to 19 additional risks per library. These include critical Remote Code Execution (RCE) vulnerabilities, absent Software Bills of Materials (SBOMs), licensing constraints, undocumented telemetry, and widespread gaps in regulatory documentation and auditability. By translating high-level governance principles into practical, verifiable metrics, LibVulnWatch advances technical AI governance with a scalable, transparent mechanism for continuous supply chain risk assessment and informed library selection.

  • 10 authors
·
May 13, 2025