Daily Papers

Large Language Models (LLMs) are undergoing a fundamental transformation from conversational generators into integrated AI systems capable of reasoning, action, memory, and self-improvement. We conceptualize this transition as a shift from Chatbot to Digital Colleague: from conversational answers to persistent work. We organize this transition along two tightly coupled dimensions. First, at the cognitive core level, LLMs are advancing from Chatbot-era "fast thinking" systems driven by next-token prediction toward Thinking LLMs that leverage inference-time computation, Chain-of-Thought reasoning, reflection, process supervision, and reinforcement learning to support more deliberate and reliable cognition. Second, at the tool-augmented task execution level, LLMs are progressing from tool-calling Agents that invoke external resources in an ad hoc manner toward OpenClaw-style workstation systems (OpenClaw) equipped with persistent Workspaces, skills, verification loops, and governance. The "Workspace + Skill" paradigm makes episodic tool use colleague-like via state persistence, reusable procedures, task closure, and experience reuse. We examine data construction shifts from instruction-response pairs to State-Action-Observation trajectories and evaluation from static benchmarks to sandboxed, auditable, self-evolving AI ecosystems.

Multi-modal large language models (MM-LLMs) have shown strong performance in medical image understanding and clinical reasoning. Recent medical agent systems extend them with tool use and multi-agent collaboration, enabling complex decision-making. However, these systems rely almost entirely on frontier models (e.g., GPT), whose API-based deployment incurs high cost, high latency, and privacy risks that conflict with on-premise clinical requirements. We present Meissa, a lightweight 4B-parameter medical MM-LLM that brings agentic capability offline. Instead of imitating static answers, Meissa learns both when to engage external interaction (strategy selection) and how to execute multi-step interaction (strategy execution) by distilling structured trajectories from frontier models. Specifically, we propose: (1) Unified trajectory modeling: trajectories (reasoning and action traces) are represented within a single state-action-observation formalism, allowing one model to generalize across heterogeneous medical environments. (2) Three-tier stratified supervision: the model's own errors trigger progressive escalation from direct reasoning to tool-augmented and multi-agent interaction, explicitly learning difficulty-aware strategy selection. (3) Prospective-retrospective supervision: pairing exploratory forward traces with hindsight-rationalized execution traces enables stable learning of effective interaction policies. Trained on 40K curated trajectories, Meissa matches or exceeds proprietary frontier agents in 10 of 16 evaluation settings across 13 medical benchmarks spanning radiology, pathology, and clinical reasoning. Using over 25x fewer parameters than typical frontier models like Gemini-3, Meissa operates fully offline with 22x lower end-to-end latency compared to API-based deployment. Data, models, and environments are released at https://github.com/Schuture/Meissa.

Large language model (LLM) agents offer a promising data-driven approach to automating Site Reliability Engineering (SRE), yet their enterprise deployment is constrained by three challenges: restricted access to proprietary data, unsafe action execution under permission-governed environments, and the inability of closed systems to improve from failures. We present AOI (Autonomous Operations Intelligence), a trainable multi-agent framework formulating automated operations as a structured trajectory learning problem under security constraints. Our approach integrates three key components. First, a trainable diagnostic system applies Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) to distill expert-level knowledge into locally deployed open-source models, enabling preference-based learning without exposing sensitive data. Second, a read-write separated execution architecture decomposes operational trajectories into observation, reasoning, and action phases, allowing safe learning while preventing unauthorized state mutation. Third, a Failure Trajectory Closed-Loop Evolver mines unsuccessful trajectories and converts them into corrective supervision signals, enabling continual data augmentation. Evaluated on the AIOpsLab benchmark, our contributions yield cumulative gains. (1) The AOI runtime alone achieves 66.3% best@5 success on all 86 tasks, outperforming the prior state-of-the-art (41.9%) by 24.4 points. (2) Adding Observer GRPO training, a locally deployed 14B model reaches 42.9% avg@1 on 63 held-out tasks with unseen fault types, surpassing Claude Sonnet 4.5. (3) The Evolver converts 37 failed trajectories into diagnostic guidance, improving end-to-end avg@5 by 4.8 points while reducing variance by 35%.

Agents must infer action outcomes and select actions that maximize a reward signal indicating how close the goal is to being reached. Supervised learning of reward models could introduce biases inherent to training data, limiting generalization to novel goals and environments. In this paper, we investigate whether well-defined world state representations alone can enable accurate reward prediction across domains. To address this, we introduce StateFactory, a factorized representation method that transforms unstructured observations into a hierarchical object-attribute structure using language models. This structured representation allows rewards to be estimated naturally as the semantic similarity between the current state and the goal state under hierarchical constraint. Overall, the compact representation structure induced by StateFactory enables strong reward generalization capabilities. We evaluate on RewardPrediction, a new benchmark dataset spanning five diverse domains and comprising 2,454 unique action-observation trajectories with step-wise ground-truth rewards. Our method shows promising zero-shot results against both VLWM-critic and LLM-as-a-Judge reward models, achieving 60% and 8% lower EPIC distance, respectively. Furthermore, this superior reward quality successfully translates into improved agent planning performance, yielding success rate gains of +21.64% on AlfWorld and +12.40% on ScienceWorld over reactive system-1 policies and enhancing system-2 agent planning. Project Page: https://statefactory.github.io

Training tool-use agents typically relies on outcome-based filtering: Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) on successful trajectories and Reinforcement Learning (RL) on pass-rate-selected tasks. However, this paradigm ignores interaction dynamics: successful trajectories may lack error recovery or exhibit redundancy, while pass rates fail to distinguish structurally informative tasks from trivial ones. We propose TopoCurate, an interaction-aware framework that projects multi-trial rollouts from the same task into a unified semantic quotient topology. By merging equivalent action-observation states, this projection transforms scattered linear trajectories into a structured manifold that explicitly captures how tool invocations and environmental responses drive the divergence between effective strategies and failure modes. Leveraging this representation, we introduce a dual-selection mechanism: for SFT, we prioritize trajectories demonstrating reflective recovery, semantic efficiency, and strategic diversity to mitigate covariate shift and mode collapse; for RL, we select tasks with high error branch ratios and strategic heterogeneity, maximizing gradient Signal-to-Noise Ratio to address vanishing signals in sparse-reward settings. Evaluations on BFCLv3 and Tau2 Bench show that TopoCurate achieves consistent gains of 4.2\% (SFT) and 6.9\% (RL) over state-of-the-art baselines. We will release the code and data soon for further investigations.

In egocentric scenarios, anticipating both the next action and its visual outcome is essential for understanding human-object interactions and for enabling robotic planning. However, existing paradigms fall short of jointly modeling these aspects. Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models focus on action prediction but lack explicit modeling of how actions influence the visual scene, while video prediction models generate future frames without conditioning on specific actions, often resulting in implausible or contextually inconsistent outcomes. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified two-stage predictive framework that jointly models action and visual future in egocentric scenarios, conditioned on hand trajectories. In the first stage, we perform consecutive state modeling to process heterogeneous inputs (visual observations, language, and action history) and explicitly predict future hand trajectories. In the second stage, we introduce causal cross-attention to fuse multi-modal cues, leveraging inferred action signals to guide an image-based Latent Diffusion Model (LDM) for frame-by-frame future video generation. Our approach is the first unified model designed to handle both egocentric human activity understanding and robotic manipulation tasks, providing explicit predictions of both upcoming actions and their visual consequences. Extensive experiments on Ego4D, BridgeData, and RLBench demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both action prediction and future video synthesis.

Large language models are increasingly deployed as agents for long-horizon tasks, yet their performance is shaped not only by model capability and environment design, but also by the harness that mediates agent--environment interaction. Existing harnesses are largely manually engineered, making them difficult to scale as trajectories grow longer and interactions become more complex. In this work, we ask whether harness can be generated by a learnable plug-in module that can be trained in an end-to-end fashion. We introduce HarnessBridge, a lightweight learnable harness controller that parameterizes the agent--environment interface as a bidirectional projection. HarnessBridge learns two bidirectional projections: observation projection, which distills raw trajectories into compact, decision-relevant states, and action projection, which converts proposed actions into executable transitions or trajectory-grounded rejections. We train HarnessBridge on a harness supervision dataset via unified instruction tuning. On Terminal-Bench~2.0 and SWE-bench Verified, HarnessBridge matches or surpasses strong specialized harnesses while substantially reducing token usage and trajectory length, and generalizes from smaller generators to larger commercial models.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as judges to evaluate agent performance, particularly in non-verifiable settings where judgments rely on agent trajectories including chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning. This paradigm implicitly assumes that the agent's CoT faithfully reflects both its internal reasoning and the underlying environment state. We show this assumption is brittle: LLM judges are highly susceptible to manipulation of agent reasoning traces. By systematically rewriting agent CoTs while holding actions and observations fixed, we demonstrate that manipulated reasoning alone can inflate false positive rates of state-of-the-art VLM judges by up to 90% across 800 trajectories spanning diverse web tasks. We study manipulation strategies spanning style-based approaches that alter only the presentation of reasoning and content-based approaches that fabricate signals of task progress, and find that content-based manipulations are consistently more effective. We evaluate prompting-based techniques and scaling judge-time compute, which reduce but do not fully eliminate susceptibility to manipulation. Our findings reveal a fundamental vulnerability in LLM-based evaluation and highlight the need for judging mechanisms that verify reasoning claims against observable evidence.

We explore how to enhance next-token prediction models to perform in-context imitation learning on a real robot, where the robot executes new tasks by interpreting contextual information provided during the input phase, without updating its underlying policy parameters. We propose In-Context Robot Transformer (ICRT), a causal transformer that performs autoregressive prediction on sensorimotor trajectories without relying on any linguistic data or reward function. This formulation enables flexible and training-free execution of new tasks at test time, achieved by prompting the model with sensorimotor trajectories of the new task composing of image observations, actions and states tuples, collected through human teleoperation. Experiments with a Franka Emika robot demonstrate that the ICRT can adapt to new tasks specified by prompts, even in environment configurations that differ from both the prompt and the training data. In a multitask environment setup, ICRT significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art next-token prediction models in robotics on generalizing to unseen tasks. Code, checkpoints and data are available on https://icrt.dev/

Learning the continuous dynamics of a system from snapshots of its temporal marginals is a problem which appears throughout natural sciences and machine learning, including in quantum systems, single-cell biological data, and generative modeling. In these settings, we assume access to cross-sectional samples that are uncorrelated over time, rather than full trajectories of samples. In order to better understand the systems under observation, we would like to learn a model of the underlying process that allows us to propagate samples in time and thereby simulate entire individual trajectories. In this work, we propose Action Matching, a method for learning a rich family of dynamics using only independent samples from its time evolution. We derive a tractable training objective, which does not rely on explicit assumptions about the underlying dynamics and does not require back-propagation through differential equations or optimal transport solvers. Inspired by connections with optimal transport, we derive extensions of Action Matching to learn stochastic differential equations and dynamics involving creation and destruction of probability mass. Finally, we showcase applications of Action Matching by achieving competitive performance in a diverse set of experiments from biology, physics, and generative modeling.

Computer use agents (CUAs) need to plan task workflows grounded in diverse, ever-changing applications and environments, but learning is hindered by the scarcity of large-scale, high-quality training data in the target application. Existing datasets are domain-specific, static, and costly to annotate, while current synthetic data generation methods often yield simplistic or misaligned task demonstrations. To address these limitations, we introduce Watch & Learn (W&L), a framework that converts human demonstration videos readily available on the Internet into executable UI trajectories at scale. Instead of directly generating trajectories or relying on ad hoc reasoning heuristics, we cast the problem as an inverse dynamics objective: predicting the user's action from consecutive screen states. This formulation reduces manual engineering, is easier to learn, and generalizes more robustly across applications. Concretely, we develop an inverse dynamics labeling pipeline with task-aware video retrieval, generate over 53k high-quality trajectories from raw web videos, and demonstrate that these trajectories improve CUAs both as in-context demonstrations and as supervised training data. On the challenging OSWorld benchmark, UI trajectories extracted with W&L consistently enhance both general-purpose and state-of-the-art frameworks in-context, and deliver stronger gains for open-source models under supervised training. These results highlight web-scale human demonstration videos as a practical and scalable foundation for advancing CUAs towards real-world deployment.

Natural agents can effectively learn from multiple data sources that differ in size, quality, and types of measurements. We study this heterogeneity in the context of offline reinforcement learning (RL) by introducing a new, practically motivated semi-supervised setting. Here, an agent has access to two sets of trajectories: labelled trajectories containing state, action and reward triplets at every timestep, along with unlabelled trajectories that contain only state and reward information. For this setting, we develop and study a simple meta-algorithmic pipeline that learns an inverse dynamics model on the labelled data to obtain proxy-labels for the unlabelled data, followed by the use of any offline RL algorithm on the true and proxy-labelled trajectories. Empirically, we find this simple pipeline to be highly successful -- on several D4RL benchmarks~fu2020d4rl, certain offline RL algorithms can match the performance of variants trained on a fully labelled dataset even when we label only 10\% of trajectories which are highly suboptimal. To strengthen our understanding, we perform a large-scale controlled empirical study investigating the interplay of data-centric properties of the labelled and unlabelled datasets, with algorithmic design choices (e.g., choice of inverse dynamics, offline RL algorithm) to identify general trends and best practices for training RL agents on semi-supervised offline datasets.

Extending discrete-time causal Prior-data Fitted Networks for time series to continuous time invites writing the mechanism as a stochastic differential equation (SDE) -- but if the SDE is integrated once per observation gap, the trajectory law depends on when it is observed, and the prior remains a discrete-time Markov model in SDE clothing. We propose a precise continuity criterion -- trajectory-law invariance to the observation schedule -- together with a three-tier taxonomy (discrete; naive observation-grid integration; fine-grid integration with decoupled observation) and a construction realising the top tier on a random DAG with OU or small-MLP nonlinear drifts, irregular observation schedules, and hard / soft / time-varying interventions. A 2 times 2 encoder times integrator ablation, run independently on a linear and a nonlinear prior, finds fine-grid integration beats naive on 8/8 cells (sign-consistency p < 1/256) with the gap growing as the eval grid refines; the encoder axis is null with fine integration but time-aware-leading with naive. We release the prior and a preliminary zero-shot protocol on pharmacokinetic and physical-system data.

In many environments only a tiny subset of all states yield high reward. In these cases, few of the interactions with the environment provide a relevant learning signal. Hence, we may want to preferentially train on those high-reward states and the probable trajectories leading to them. To this end, we advocate for the use of a backtracking model that predicts the preceding states that terminate at a given high-reward state. We can train a model which, starting from a high value state (or one that is estimated to have high value), predicts and sample for which the (state, action)-tuples may have led to that high value state. These traces of (state, action) pairs, which we refer to as Recall Traces, sampled from this backtracking model starting from a high value state, are informative as they terminate in good states, and hence we can use these traces to improve a policy. We provide a variational interpretation for this idea and a practical algorithm in which the backtracking model samples from an approximate posterior distribution over trajectories which lead to large rewards. Our method improves the sample efficiency of both on- and off-policy RL algorithms across several environments and tasks.

Teaching robots to autonomously complete everyday tasks remains a challenge. Imitation Learning (IL) is a powerful approach that imbues robots with skills via demonstrations, but is limited by the labor-intensive process of collecting teleoperated robot data. Human videos offer a scalable alternative, but it remains difficult to directly train IL policies from them due to the lack of robot action labels. To address this, we propose to represent actions as short-horizon 2D trajectories on an image. These actions, or motion tracks, capture the predicted direction of motion for either human hands or robot end-effectors. We instantiate an IL policy called Motion Track Policy (MT-pi) which receives image observations and outputs motion tracks as actions. By leveraging this unified, cross-embodiment action space, MT-pi completes tasks with high success given just minutes of human video and limited additional robot demonstrations. At test time, we predict motion tracks from two camera views, recovering 6DoF trajectories via multi-view synthesis. MT-pi achieves an average success rate of 86.5% across 4 real-world tasks, outperforming state-of-the-art IL baselines which do not leverage human data or our action space by 40%, and generalizes to scenarios seen only in human videos. Code and videos are available on our website https://portal-cornell.github.io/motion_track_policy/.

Agentic applications based on large language models increasingly rely on multi-step interaction loops involving planning, action execution, and environment feedback. While such systems are now deployed at scale, improving them post-deployment remains challenging. Agent trajectories are voluminous and non-deterministic, and reviewing each one, whether through human review or auxiliary LLMs, is slow and cost-prohibitive. We propose a lightweight, signal-based framework for triaging agentic interaction trajectories. Our approach computes cheap, broadly applicable signals from live interactions and attaches them as structured attributes for trajectory triage, identifying interactions likely to be informative without affecting online agent behavior. We organize signals into a coarse-grained taxonomy spanning interaction (misalignment, stagnation, disengagement, satisfaction), execution (failure, loop), and environment (exhaustion), designed for computation without model calls. In a controlled annotation study on τ-bench, a widely used benchmark for tool-augmented agent evaluation, we show that signal-based sampling achieves an 82\% informativeness rate compared to 74\% for heuristic filtering and 54\% for random sampling, with a 1.52x efficiency gain per informative trajectory. The advantage is robust across reward strata and task domains, confirming that signals provide genuine per-trajectory informativeness gains rather than merely oversampling obvious failures. These results show that lightweight signals can serve as practical sampling infrastructure for agentic systems, and suggest a path toward preference data construction and post-deployment optimization.

On-policy reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms perform policy updates using i.i.d. trajectories collected by the current policy. However, after observing only a finite number of trajectories, on-policy sampling may produce data that fails to match the expected on-policy data distribution. This sampling error leads to noisy updates and data inefficient on-policy learning. Recent work in the policy evaluation setting has shown that non-i.i.d., off-policy sampling can produce data with lower sampling error than on-policy sampling can produce. Motivated by this observation, we introduce an adaptive, off-policy sampling method to improve the data efficiency of on-policy policy gradient algorithms. Our method, Proximal Robust On-Policy Sampling (PROPS), reduces sampling error by collecting data with a behavior policy that increases the probability of sampling actions that are under-sampled with respect to the current policy. Rather than discarding data from old policies -- as is commonly done in on-policy algorithms -- PROPS uses data collection to adjust the distribution of previously collected data to be approximately on-policy. We empirically evaluate PROPS on both continuous-action MuJoCo benchmark tasks as well as discrete-action tasks and demonstrate that (1) PROPS decreases sampling error throughout training and (2) improves the data efficiency of on-policy policy gradient algorithms. Our work improves the RL community's understanding of a nuance in the on-policy vs off-policy dichotomy: on-policy learning requires on-policy data, not on-policy sampling.

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is computationally and statistically challenging due to the large number of latent variables in the model and the strong temporal dependencies between them. In this paper, we propose a new method for inference in Bayesian GPSSMs, which overcomes the drawbacks of previous approaches, namely over-simplified assumptions, and high computational requirements. Our method is based on free-form variational inference via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo within the inducing-variable formalism. Furthermore, by exploiting our proposed variational distribution, we provide a collapsed extension of our method where the inducing variables are marginalized analytically. We also showcase results when combining our framework with particle MCMC methods. We show that, on six real-world datasets, our approach can learn transition dynamics and latent states more accurately than competing methods.

Imitation-learning policies inherit the quality of the demonstrations they are trained on, and a growing set of curation metrics promise to score and filter low-quality demonstrations automatically. These metrics are each validated on different data with different protocols, so it is unclear which of them actually identify the demonstrations that harm a policy. We build a controlled testbed in which demonstration defects are injected with known type, and audit seven curation metrics along two axes: how well each separates defective from clean demonstrations, and whether training a behavior-cloning policy on each metric's curated subset improves task success. We study two defect regimes. Subtle perturbations (correlated action noise, tremor, truncation) are detectable by multivariate outlier scoring and, once removed, recover the full downstream gap. Structural errors, where the demonstration executes a wrong action at a key moment, are invisible to every action-only metric we test, and two of them are inverted: they score defective demonstrations as higher quality and, used for curation, tend to leave the policy at or below the uncurated baseline rather than above it. Only metrics that examine the state trajectory detect structural errors, and even the best of them recovers just a third of the downstream gap. High detection accuracy does not guarantee downstream improvement. We release the testbed and all curation implementations.

Some imitation learning methods combine behavioural cloning with self-supervision to infer actions from state pairs. However, most rely on a large number of expert trajectories to increase generalisation and human intervention to capture key aspects of the problem, such as domain constraints. In this paper, we propose Continuous Imitation Learning from Observation (CILO), a new method augmenting imitation learning with two important features: (i) exploration, allowing for more diverse state transitions, requiring less expert trajectories and resulting in fewer training iterations; and (ii) path signatures, allowing for automatic encoding of constraints, through the creation of non-parametric representations of agents and expert trajectories. We compared CILO with a baseline and two leading imitation learning methods in five environments. It had the best overall performance of all methods in all environments, outperforming the expert in two of them.

We introduce Masked Trajectory Models (MTM) as a generic abstraction for sequential decision making. MTM takes a trajectory, such as a state-action sequence, and aims to reconstruct the trajectory conditioned on random subsets of the same trajectory. By training with a highly randomized masking pattern, MTM learns versatile networks that can take on different roles or capabilities, by simply choosing appropriate masks at inference time. For example, the same MTM network can be used as a forward dynamics model, inverse dynamics model, or even an offline RL agent. Through extensive experiments in several continuous control tasks, we show that the same MTM network -- i.e. same weights -- can match or outperform specialized networks trained for the aforementioned capabilities. Additionally, we find that state representations learned by MTM can significantly accelerate the learning speed of traditional RL algorithms. Finally, in offline RL benchmarks, we find that MTM is competitive with specialized offline RL algorithms, despite MTM being a generic self-supervised learning method without any explicit RL components. Code is available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/mtm

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) can in principle synthesize more optimal behavior from a dataset consisting only of suboptimal trials. One way that this can happen is by "stitching" together the best parts of otherwise suboptimal trajectories that overlap on similar states, to create new behaviors where each individual state is in-distribution, but the overall returns are higher. However, in many interesting and complex applications, such as autonomous navigation and dialogue systems, the state is partially observed. Even worse, the state representation is unknown or not easy to define. In such cases, policies and value functions are often conditioned on observation histories instead of states. In these cases, it is not clear if the same kind of "stitching" is feasible at the level of observation histories, since two different trajectories would always have different histories, and thus "similar states" that might lead to effective stitching cannot be leveraged. Theoretically, we show that standard offline RL algorithms conditioned on observation histories suffer from poor sample complexity, in accordance with the above intuition. We then identify sufficient conditions under which offline RL can still be efficient -- intuitively, it needs to learn a compact representation of history comprising only features relevant for action selection. We introduce a bisimulation loss that captures the extent to which this happens, and propose that offline RL can explicitly optimize this loss to aid worst-case sample complexity. Empirically, we show that across a variety of tasks either our proposed loss improves performance, or the value of this loss is already minimized as a consequence of standard offline RL, indicating that it correlates well with good performance.

Temporal causal representation learning methods assume that causal mechanisms switch instantaneously between discrete domains, yet real-world systems often exhibit continuous mechanism transitions. For example, a vehicle's dynamics evolve gradually through a turning maneuver, and human gait shifts smoothly from walking to running. We formalize this setting by modeling transitional mechanisms as convex combinations of finitely many atomic mechanisms, governed by time-varying mixing coefficients. Our theoretical contributions establish that both the latent causal variables and the continuous mixing trajectory are jointly identifiable. We further propose TRACE, a Mixture-of-Experts framework where each expert learns one atomic mechanism during training, enabling recovery of mechanism trajectories at test time. This formulation generalizes to intermediate mechanism states never observed during training. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that TRACE recovers mixing trajectories with up to 0.99 correlation, substantially outperforming discrete-switching baselines.

Temporal motion modeling has always been a key component in multiple object tracking (MOT) which can ensure smooth trajectory movement and provide accurate positional information to enhance association precision. However, current motion models struggle to be both efficient and effective across different application scenarios. To this end, we propose TrackSSM inspired by the recently popular state space models (SSM), a unified encoder-decoder motion framework that uses data-dependent state space model to perform temporal motion of trajectories. Specifically, we propose Flow-SSM, a module that utilizes the position and motion information from historical trajectories to guide the temporal state transition of object bounding boxes. Based on Flow-SSM, we design a flow decoder. It is composed of a cascaded motion decoding module employing Flow-SSM, which can use the encoded flow information to complete the temporal position prediction of trajectories. Additionally, we propose a Step-by-Step Linear (S^2L) training strategy. By performing linear interpolation between the positions of the object in the previous frame and the current frame, we construct the pseudo labels of step-by-step linear training, ensuring that the trajectory flow information can better guide the object bounding box in completing temporal transitions. TrackSSM utilizes a simple Mamba-Block to build a motion encoder for historical trajectories, forming a temporal motion model with an encoder-decoder structure in conjunction with the flow decoder. TrackSSM is applicable to various tracking scenarios and achieves excellent tracking performance across multiple benchmarks, further extending the potential of SSM-like temporal motion models in multi-object tracking tasks. Code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/Xavier-Lin/TrackSSM.

Language environments such as web browsers, code terminals, and interactive simulations emit raw text rather than states, and provide none of the runtime structure that MDP analysis requires. No explicit state space, no observation-to-state mapping, no certified transitions, and no termination criterion. We introduce the State-Centric Decision Process (SDP), a runtime framework that constructs these missing inputs by having the agent build them, predicate by predicate, as it acts. At each step the agent commits to a natural-language predicate describing how the world should look, takes an action to make it true, and checks the observation against it. Predicates that pass become certified states, and the resulting trajectory carries the four objects language environments do not provide, namely a task-induced state space, an observation-to-state mapping, certified transitions, and a termination criterion. We evaluate SDP on five benchmarks spanning planning, scientific exploration, web reasoning, and multi-hop question answering. SDP achieves the best training-free results on all five, with the advantage widening as the horizon grows. The certified trajectories additionally support analyses unavailable to reactive agents, including per-predicate credit assignment, failure localization, partial-progress measurement, and modular operator replacement.

User profiling and region analysis are two tasks of significant commercial value. However, in practical applications, modeling different features typically involves four main steps: data preparation, data processing, model establishment, evaluation, and optimization. This process is time-consuming and labor-intensive. Repeating this workflow for each feature results in abundant development time for tasks and a reduced overall volume of task development. Indeed, human mobility data contains a wealth of information. Several successful cases suggest that conducting in-depth analysis of population movement data could potentially yield meaningful profiles about users and areas. Nonetheless, most related works have not thoroughly utilized the semantic information within human mobility data and trained on a fixed number of the regions. To tap into the rich information within population movement, based on the perspective that Regions Are Who walk them, we propose a large spatiotemporal model based on trajectories (RAW). It possesses the following characteristics: 1) Tailored for trajectory data, introducing a GPT-like structure with a parameter count of up to 1B; 2) Introducing a spatiotemporal fine-tuning module, interpreting trajectories as collection of users to derive arbitrary region embedding. This framework allows rapid task development based on the large spatiotemporal model. We conducted extensive experiments to validate the effectiveness of our proposed large spatiotemporal model. It's evident that our proposed method, relying solely on human mobility data without additional features, exhibits a certain level of relevance in user profiling and region analysis. Moreover, our model showcases promising predictive capabilities in trajectory generation tasks based on the current state, offering the potential for further innovative work utilizing this large spatiotemporal model.

Internal modelling of the world -- predicting transitions between previous states X and next states Y under actions Z -- is essential to reasoning and planning for LLMs and VLMs. Learning such models typically requires costly action-labelled trajectories. We propose SWIRL, a self-improvement framework that learns from state-only sequences by treating actions as a latent variable and alternating between Forward World Modelling (FWM) P_θ(Y|X,Z) and an Inverse Dynamics Modelling (IDM) Q_φ(Z|X,Y). SWIRL iterates two phases: (1) Variational Information Maximisation, which updates the FWM to generate next states that maximise conditional mutual information with latent actions given prior states, encouraging identifiable consistency; and (2) ELBO Maximisation, which updates the IDM to explain observed transitions, effectively performing coordinate ascent. Both models are trained with reinforcement learning (specifically, GRPO) with the opposite frozen model's log-probability as a reward signal. We provide theoretical learnability guarantees for both updates, and evaluate SWIRL on LLMs and VLMs across multiple environments: single-turn and multi-turn open-world visual dynamics and synthetic textual environments for physics, web, and tool calling. SWIRL achieves gains of 16% on AURORABench, 28% on ByteMorph, 16% on WorldPredictionBench, and 14% on StableToolBench.

Recent work has demonstrated the effectiveness of formulating decision making as a supervised learning problem on offline-collected trajectories. However, the benefits of performing sequence modeling on trajectory data is not yet clear. In this work we investigate if sequence modeling has the capability to condense trajectories into useful representations that can contribute to policy learning. To achieve this, we adopt a two-stage framework that first summarizes trajectories with sequence modeling techniques, and then employs these representations to learn a policy along with a desired goal. This design allows many existing supervised offline RL methods to be considered as specific instances of our framework. Within this framework, we introduce Goal-Conditioned Predicitve Coding (GCPC), an approach that brings powerful trajectory representations and leads to performant policies. We conduct extensive empirical evaluations on AntMaze, FrankaKitchen and Locomotion environments, and observe that sequence modeling has a significant impact on some decision making tasks. In addition, we demonstrate that GCPC learns a goal-conditioned latent representation about the future, which serves as an "implicit planner", and enables competitive performance on all three benchmarks.

Learning from demonstration is a powerful method for teaching robots new skills, and having more demonstration data often improves policy learning. However, the high cost of collecting demonstration data is a significant bottleneck. Videos, as a rich data source, contain knowledge of behaviors, physics, and semantics, but extracting control-specific information from them is challenging due to the lack of action labels. In this work, we introduce a novel framework, Any-point Trajectory Modeling (ATM), that utilizes video demonstrations by pre-training a trajectory model to predict future trajectories of arbitrary points within a video frame. Once trained, these trajectories provide detailed control guidance, enabling the learning of robust visuomotor policies with minimal action-labeled data. Across over 130 language-conditioned tasks we evaluated in both simulation and the real world, ATM outperforms strong video pre-training baselines by 80% on average. Furthermore, we show effective transfer learning of manipulation skills from human videos and videos from a different robot morphology. Visualizations and code are available at: https://xingyu-lin.github.io/atm.

We study the problem of procedure planning in instructional videos, which aims to make a goal-oriented sequence of action steps given partial visual state observations. The motivation of this problem is to learn a structured and plannable state and action space. Recent works succeeded in sequence modeling of steps with only sequence-level annotations accessible during training, which overlooked the roles of states in the procedures. In this work, we point out that State CHangEs MAtter (SCHEMA) for procedure planning in instructional videos. We aim to establish a more structured state space by investigating the causal relations between steps and states in procedures. Specifically, we explicitly represent each step as state changes and track the state changes in procedures. For step representation, we leveraged the commonsense knowledge in large language models (LLMs) to describe the state changes of steps via our designed chain-of-thought prompting. For state change tracking, we align visual state observations with language state descriptions via cross-modal contrastive learning, and explicitly model the intermediate states of the procedure using LLM-generated state descriptions. Experiments on CrossTask, COIN, and NIV benchmark datasets demonstrate that our proposed SCHEMA model achieves state-of-the-art performance and obtains explainable visualizations.

This work investigates the reproducibility of the paper 'Explaining RL decisions with trajectories'. The original paper introduces a novel approach in explainable reinforcement learning based on the attribution decisions of an agent to specific clusters of trajectories encountered during training. We verify the main claims from the paper, which state that (i) training on less trajectories induces a lower initial state value, (ii) trajectories in a cluster present similar high-level patterns, (iii) distant trajectories influence the decision of an agent, and (iv) humans correctly identify the attributed trajectories to the decision of the agent. We recover the environments used by the authors based on the partial original code they provided for one of the environments (Grid-World), and implemented the remaining from scratch (Seaquest, HalfCheetah, Breakout and Q*Bert). While we confirm that (i), (ii), and (iii) partially hold, we extend on the largely qualitative experiments from the authors by introducing a quantitative metric to further support (iii), and new experiments and visual results for (i). Moreover, we investigate the use of different clustering algorithms and encoder architectures to further support (ii). We could not support (iv), given the limited extent of the original experiments. We conclude that, while some of the claims can be supported, further investigations and experiments could be of interest. We recognise the novelty of the work from the authors and hope that our work paves the way for clearer and more transparent approaches.

We study the variance of stochastic policy gradients (SPGs) with many action samples per state. We derive a many-actions optimality condition, which determines when many-actions SPG yields lower variance as compared to a single-action agent with proportionally extended trajectory. We propose Model-Based Many-Actions (MBMA), an approach leveraging dynamics models for many-actions sampling in the context of SPG. MBMA addresses issues associated with existing implementations of many-actions SPG and yields lower bias and comparable variance to SPG estimated from states in model-simulated rollouts. We find that MBMA bias and variance structure matches that predicted by theory. As a result, MBMA achieves improved sample efficiency and higher returns on a range of continuous action environments as compared to model-free, many-actions, and model-based on-policy SPG baselines.

Large language model (LLM)-based agents have shown promise in tackling complex tasks by interacting dynamically with the environment. Existing work primarily focuses on behavior cloning from expert demonstrations or preference learning through exploratory trajectory sampling. However, these methods often struggle to address long-horizon tasks, where suboptimal actions accumulate step by step, causing agents to deviate from correct task trajectories. To address this, we highlight the importance of timely calibration and the need to automatically construct calibration trajectories for training agents. We propose Step-Level Trajectory Calibration (STeCa), a novel framework for LLM agent learning. Specifically, STeCa identifies suboptimal actions through a step-level reward comparison during exploration. It constructs calibrated trajectories using LLM-driven reflection, enabling agents to learn from improved decision-making processes. We finally leverage these calibrated trajectories with successful trajectories for reinforced training. Extensive experiments demonstrate that STeCa significantly outperforms existing methods. Further analysis highlights that timely calibration enables agents to complete tasks with greater robustness. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/WangHanLinHenry/STeCa.

We address a fundamental challenge in Reinforcement Learning from Interaction Demonstration (RLID): demonstration noise and coverage limitations. While existing data collection approaches provide valuable interaction demonstrations, they often yield sparse, disconnected, and noisy trajectories that fail to capture the full spectrum of possible skill variations and transitions. Our key insight is that despite noisy and sparse demonstrations, there exist infinite physically feasible trajectories that naturally bridge between demonstrated skills or emerge from their neighboring states, forming a continuous space of possible skill variations and transitions. Building upon this insight, we present two data augmentation techniques: a Stitched Trajectory Graph (STG) that discovers potential transitions between demonstration skills, and a State Transition Field (STF) that establishes unique connections for arbitrary states within the demonstration neighborhood. To enable effective RLID with augmented data, we develop an Adaptive Trajectory Sampling (ATS) strategy for dynamic curriculum generation and a historical encoding mechanism for memory-dependent skill learning. Our approach enables robust skill acquisition that significantly generalizes beyond the reference demonstrations. Extensive experiments across diverse interaction tasks demonstrate substantial improvements over state-of-the-art methods in terms of convergence stability, generalization capability, and recovery robustness.

Learning accurate predictive models of real-world dynamic phenomena (e.g., climate, biological) remains a challenging task. One key issue is that the data generated by both natural and artificial processes often comprise time series that are irregularly sampled and/or contain missing observations. In this work, we propose the Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) for continuous-time modeling of time series through discrete-time observations. NCDSSM employs auxiliary variables to disentangle recognition from dynamics, thus requiring amortized inference only for the auxiliary variables. Leveraging techniques from continuous-discrete filtering theory, we demonstrate how to perform accurate Bayesian inference for the dynamic states. We propose three flexible parameterizations of the latent dynamics and an efficient training objective that marginalizes the dynamic states during inference. Empirical results on multiple benchmark datasets across various domains show improved imputation and forecasting performance of NCDSSM over existing models.

To what extent do vision-and-language foundation models possess a realistic world model (observation times action rightarrow observation) and a dynamics model (observation times observation rightarrow action), when actions are expressed through language? While open-source foundation models struggle with both, we find that fine-tuning them to acquire a dynamics model through supervision is significantly easier than acquiring a world model. In turn, dynamics models can be used to bootstrap world models through two main strategies: 1) weakly supervised learning from synthetic data and 2) inference time verification. Firstly, the dynamics model can annotate actions for unlabelled pairs of video frame observations to expand the training data. We further propose a new objective, where image tokens in observation pairs are weighted by their importance, as predicted by a recognition model. Secondly, the dynamics models can assign rewards to multiple samples of the world model to score them, effectively guiding search at inference time. We evaluate the world models resulting from both strategies through the task of action-centric image editing on Aurora-Bench. Our best model achieves a performance competitive with state-of-the-art image editing models, improving on them by a margin of 15% on real-world subsets according to GPT4o-as-judge, and achieving the best average human evaluation across all subsets of Aurora-Bench.

Recent work on the sequence universality of State Space Models (SSMs) has introduced efficient, maximally expressive continuous-time approaches for time-series modelling. While these works focus on discriminative settings, we extend this perspective to generative time-series modelling by proving that maximally expressive Structured Linear Controlled Differential Equations (SLiCEs) are universal time-series generators, in the sense that they can approximate the induced path laws of continuous causal pushforwards on compact latent sets in W_infty. Building on these theoretical results, we propose Generative SLiCEs (G-SLiCEs), a maximally expressive continuous-time model for flow matching on path-space. Empirically, we show that expressivity improves performance in probabilistic forecasting and downstream tasks, while retaining the advantages of continuous-time models such as generalising to arbitrary observation grids. This is particularly beneficial for irregular grids, where fixed-grid models often struggle.

We focus on the self-supervised discovery of manipulation concepts that can be adapted and reassembled to address various robotic tasks. We propose that the decision to conceptualize a physical procedure should not depend on how we name it (semantics) but rather on the significance of the informativeness in its representation regarding the low-level physical state and state changes. We model manipulation concepts (discrete symbols) as generative and discriminative goals and derive metrics that can autonomously link them to meaningful sub-trajectories from noisy, unlabeled demonstrations. Specifically, we employ a trainable codebook containing encodings (concepts) capable of synthesizing the end-state of a sub-trajectory given the current state (generative informativeness). Moreover, the encoding corresponding to a particular sub-trajectory should differentiate the state within and outside it and confidently predict the subsequent action based on the gradient of its discriminative score (discriminative informativeness). These metrics, which do not rely on human annotation, can be seamlessly integrated into a VQ-VAE framework, enabling the partitioning of demonstrations into semantically consistent sub-trajectories, fulfilling the purpose of discovering manipulation concepts and the corresponding sub-goal (key) states. We evaluate the effectiveness of the learned concepts by training policies that utilize them as guidance, demonstrating superior performance compared to other baselines. Additionally, our discovered manipulation concepts compare favorably to human-annotated ones while saving much manual effort.

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

Autonomous systems often operate in environments where the behavior of multiple agents is coordinated by a shared global state. Reliable estimation of the global state is thus critical for successfully operating in a multi-agent setting. We introduce agent-aware state estimation -- a framework for calculating indirect estimations of state given observations of the behavior of other agents in the environment. We also introduce transition-independent agent-aware state estimation -- a tractable class of agent-aware state estimation -- and show that it allows the speed of inference to scale linearly with the number of agents in the environment. As an example, we model traffic light classification in instances of complete loss of direct observation. By taking into account observations of vehicular behavior from multiple directions of traffic, our approach exhibits accuracy higher than that of existing traffic light-only HMM methods on a real-world autonomous vehicle data set under a variety of simulated occlusion scenarios.

In trajectory forecasting tasks for traffic, future output trajectories can be computed by advancing the ego vehicle's state with predicted actions according to a kinematics model. By unrolling predicted trajectories via time integration and models of kinematic dynamics, predicted trajectories should not only be kinematically feasible but also relate uncertainty from one timestep to the next. While current works in probabilistic prediction do incorporate kinematic priors for mean trajectory prediction, variance is often left as a learnable parameter, despite uncertainty in one time step being inextricably tied to uncertainty in the previous time step. In this paper, we show simple and differentiable analytical approximations describing the relationship between variance at one timestep and that at the next with the kinematic bicycle model. These approximations can be easily incorporated with negligible additional overhead into any existing trajectory forecasting framework utilizing probabilistic predictions, whether it is autoregressive or one-shot prediction. In our results, we find that encoding the relationship between variance across timesteps works especially well in unoptimal settings, such as with small or noisy datasets. We observe up to a 50% performance boost in partial dataset settings and up to an 8% performance boost in large-scale learning compared to previous kinematic prediction methods on SOTA trajectory forecasting architectures out-of-the-box, with no fine-tuning. In this paper, we show four analytical formulations of probabilistic kinematic priors which can be used for any Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based deep learning models, quantify the error bound on linear approximations applied during trajectory unrolling, and show results to evaluate each formulation in trajectory forecasting.

Leveraging diverse robotic data for pretraining remains a critical challenge. Existing methods typically model the dataset's action distribution using simple observations as inputs. However, these inputs are often incomplete, resulting in a dispersed conditional action distribution-an issue we refer to as coordinate system chaos and state chaos. This inconsistency significantly hampers pretraining efficiency. To address this, we propose 4D-VLA, a novel approach that effectively integrates 4D information into the input to mitigate these sources of chaos. Our model introduces depth and temporal information into visual features with sequential RGB-D inputs, aligning the coordinate systems of the robot and the scene. This alignment endows the model with strong spatiotemporal reasoning capabilities while minimizing training overhead. Additionally, we introduce memory bank sampling, a frame sampling strategy designed to extract informative frames from historical images, further improving effectiveness and efficiency. Experimental results demonstrate that our pretraining method and architectural components substantially enhance model performance. In both simulated and real-world experiments, our model achieves a significant increase in success rate over OpenVLA. To further assess spatial perception and generalization to novel views, we introduce MV-Bench, a multi-view simulation benchmark. Our model consistently outperforms existing methods, demonstrating stronger spatial understanding and adaptability.

Recent advances in world models have shown promise for modeling future dynamics of environmental states, enabling agents to reason and act without accessing real environments. Current methods mainly perform single-step or fixed-horizon rollouts, leaving their potential for complex task planning under-exploited. We propose Imagine-then-Plan (ITP), a unified framework for agent learning via lookahead imagination, where an agent's policy model interacts with the learned world model, yielding multi-step ``imagined'' trajectories. Since the imagination horizon may vary by tasks and stages, we introduce a novel adaptive lookahead mechanism by trading off the ultimate goal and task progress. The resulting imagined trajectories provide rich signals about future consequences, such as achieved progress and potential conflicts, which are fused with current observations, formulating a partially observable and imaginable Markov decision process to guide policy learning. We instantiate ITP with both training-free and reinforcement-trained variants. Extensive experiments across representative agent benchmarks demonstrate that ITP significantly outperforms competitive baselines. Further analyses validate that our adaptive lookahead largely enhances agents' reasoning capability, providing valuable insights into addressing broader, complex tasks.

Video understanding requires effective modeling of both motion and appearance information, particularly for few-shot action recognition. While recent advances in point tracking have been shown to improve few-shot action recognition, two fundamental challenges persist: selecting informative points to track and effectively modeling their motion patterns. We present Trokens, a novel approach that transforms trajectory points into semantic-aware relational tokens for action recognition. First, we introduce a semantic-aware sampling strategy to adaptively distribute tracking points based on object scale and semantic relevance. Second, we develop a motion modeling framework that captures both intra-trajectory dynamics through the Histogram of Oriented Displacements (HoD) and inter-trajectory relationships to model complex action patterns. Our approach effectively combines these trajectory tokens with semantic features to enhance appearance features with motion information, achieving state-of-the-art performance across six diverse few-shot action recognition benchmarks: Something-Something-V2 (both full and small splits), Kinetics, UCF101, HMDB51, and FineGym. For project page see https://trokens-iccv25.github.io

Constructing states from sequences of observations is an important component of reinforcement learning agents. One solution for state construction is to use recurrent neural networks. Back-propagation through time (BPTT), and real-time recurrent learning (RTRL) are two popular gradient-based methods for recurrent learning. BPTT requires complete trajectories of observations before it can compute the gradients and is unsuitable for online updates. RTRL can do online updates but scales poorly to large networks. In this paper, we propose two constraints that make RTRL scalable. We show that by either decomposing the network into independent modules or learning the network in stages, we can make RTRL scale linearly with the number of parameters. Unlike prior scalable gradient estimation algorithms, such as UORO and Truncated-BPTT, our algorithms do not add noise or bias to the gradient estimate. Instead, they trade off the functional capacity of the network for computationally efficient learning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach over Truncated-BPTT on a prediction benchmark inspired by animal learning and by doing policy evaluation of pre-trained policies for Atari 2600 games.

Recent advances in reinforcement learning (RL) have shown much promise across a variety of applications. However, issues such as scalability, explainability, and Markovian assumptions limit its applicability in certain domains. We observe that many of these shortcomings emanate from the simulator as opposed to the RL training algorithms themselves. As such, we propose a semantic proxy for simulation based on a temporal extension to annotated logic. In comparison with two high-fidelity simulators, we show up to three orders of magnitude speed-up while preserving the quality of policy learned. In addition, we show the ability to model and leverage non-Markovian dynamics and instantaneous actions while providing an explainable trace describing the outcomes of the agent actions.

Motion trajectories offer reliable references for physics-based motion learning but suffer from sparsity, particularly in regions that lack sufficient data coverage. To address this challenge, we introduce a self-supervised, structured representation and generation method that extracts spatial-temporal relationships in periodic or quasi-periodic motions. The motion dynamics in a continuously parameterized latent space enable our method to enhance the interpolation and generalization capabilities of motion learning algorithms. The motion learning controller, informed by the motion parameterization, operates online tracking of a wide range of motions, including targets unseen during training. With a fallback mechanism, the controller dynamically adapts its tracking strategy and automatically resorts to safe action execution when a potentially risky target is proposed. By leveraging the identified spatial-temporal structure, our work opens new possibilities for future advancements in general motion representation and learning algorithms.

The scarcity of manipulation data has motivated the use of pretrained large models from other modalities in robotics. In this work, we build upon autoregressive video generation models to propose a Physical Autoregressive Model (PAR), where physical tokens combine frames and actions to represent the joint evolution of the robot and its environment. PAR leverages the world knowledge embedded in video pretraining to understand physical dynamics without requiring action pretraining, enabling accurate video prediction and consistent action trajectories. It also adopts a DiT-based de-tokenizer to model frames and actions as continuous tokens, mitigating quantization errors and facilitating mutual enhancement. Furthermore, we incorporate a causal mask with inverse kinematics, parallel training, and the KV-cache mechanism to further improve performance and efficiency. Experiments on the ManiSkill benchmark show that PAR achieves a 100\% success rate on the PushCube task, matches the performance of action-pretrained baselines on other tasks, and accurately predicts future videos with tightly aligned action trajectories. These findings underscore a promising direction for robotic manipulation by transferring world knowledge from autoregressive video pretraining. The project page is here: https://hcplab-sysu.github.io/PhysicalAutoregressiveModel/

We provide an optimization-based framework to perform counterfactual analysis in a dynamic model with hidden states. Our framework is grounded in the ``abduction, action, and prediction'' approach to answer counterfactual queries and handles two key challenges where (1) the states are hidden and (2) the model is dynamic. Recognizing the lack of knowledge on the underlying causal mechanism and the possibility of infinitely many such mechanisms, we optimize over this space and compute upper and lower bounds on the counterfactual quantity of interest. Our work brings together ideas from causality, state-space models, simulation, and optimization, and we apply it on a breast cancer case study. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to compute lower and upper bounds on a counterfactual query in a dynamic latent-state model.

While the conditional sequence modeling with the transformer architecture has demonstrated its effectiveness in dealing with offline reinforcement learning (RL) tasks, it is struggle to handle out-of-distribution states and actions. Existing work attempts to address this issue by data augmentation with the learned policy or adding extra constraints with the value-based RL algorithm. However, these studies still fail to overcome the following challenges: (1) insufficiently utilizing the historical temporal information among inter-steps, (2) overlooking the local intrastep relationships among return-to-gos (RTGs), states, and actions, (3) overfitting suboptimal trajectories with noisy labels. To address these challenges, we propose Decision Mamba (DM), a novel multi-grained state space model (SSM) with a self-evolving policy learning strategy. DM explicitly models the historical hidden state to extract the temporal information by using the mamba architecture. To capture the relationship among RTG-state-action triplets, a fine-grained SSM module is designed and integrated into the original coarse-grained SSM in mamba, resulting in a novel mamba architecture tailored for offline RL. Finally, to mitigate the overfitting issue on noisy trajectories, a self-evolving policy is proposed by using progressive regularization. The policy evolves by using its own past knowledge to refine the suboptimal actions, thus enhancing its robustness on noisy demonstrations. Extensive experiments on various tasks show that DM outperforms other baselines substantially.

Current advancements in reinforcement learning (RL) have predominantly focused on learning step-based policies that generate actions for each perceived state. While these methods efficiently leverage step information from environmental interaction, they often ignore the temporal correlation between actions, resulting in inefficient exploration and unsmooth trajectories that are challenging to implement on real hardware. Episodic RL (ERL) seeks to overcome these challenges by exploring in parameters space that capture the correlation of actions. However, these approaches typically compromise data efficiency, as they treat trajectories as opaque black boxes. In this work, we introduce a novel ERL algorithm, Temporally-Correlated Episodic RL (TCE), which effectively utilizes step information in episodic policy updates, opening the 'black box' in existing ERL methods while retaining the smooth and consistent exploration in parameter space. TCE synergistically combines the advantages of step-based and episodic RL, achieving comparable performance to recent ERL methods while maintaining data efficiency akin to state-of-the-art (SoTA) step-based RL.

This work explores the in-context learning capabilities of State Space Models (SSMs) and presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical explanation of a possible underlying mechanism. We introduce a novel weight construction for SSMs, enabling them to predict the next state of any dynamical system after observing previous states without parameter fine-tuning. This is accomplished by extending the HiPPO framework to demonstrate that continuous SSMs can approximate the derivative of any input signal. Specifically, we find an explicit weight construction for continuous SSMs and provide an asymptotic error bound on the derivative approximation. The discretization of this continuous SSM subsequently yields a discrete SSM that predicts the next state. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our parameterization empirically. This work should be an initial step toward understanding how sequence models based on SSMs learn in context.

Differentiable particle filters are an emerging class of sequential Bayesian inference techniques that use neural networks to construct components in state space models. Existing approaches are mostly based on offline supervised training strategies. This leads to the delay of the model deployment and the obtained filters are susceptible to distribution shift of test-time data. In this paper, we propose an online learning framework for differentiable particle filters so that model parameters can be updated as data arrive. The technical constraint is that there is no known ground truth state information in the online inference setting. We address this by adopting an unsupervised loss to construct the online model updating procedure, which involves a sequence of filtering operations for online maximum likelihood-based parameter estimation. We empirically evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method, and compare it with supervised learning methods in simulation settings including a multivariate linear Gaussian state-space model and a simulated object tracking experiment.

Practitioners frequently aim to infer an unobserved population trajectory using sample snapshots at multiple time points. For instance, in single-cell sequencing, scientists would like to learn how gene expression evolves over time. But sequencing any cell destroys that cell. So we cannot access any cell's full trajectory, but we can access snapshot samples from many cells. Stochastic differential equations are commonly used to analyze systems with full individual-trajectory access; since here we have only sample snapshots, these methods are inapplicable. The deep learning community has recently explored using Schr\"odinger bridges (SBs) and their extensions to estimate these dynamics. However, these methods either (1) interpolate between just two time points or (2) require a single fixed reference dynamic within the SB, which is often just set to be Brownian motion. But learning piecewise from adjacent time points can fail to capture long-term dependencies. And practitioners are typically able to specify a model class for the reference dynamic but not the exact values of the parameters within it. So we propose a new method that (1) learns the unobserved trajectories from sample snapshots across multiple time points and (2) requires specification only of a class of reference dynamics, not a single fixed one. In particular, we suggest an iterative projection method inspired by Schr\"odinger bridges; we alternate between learning a piecewise SB on the unobserved trajectories and using the learned SB to refine our best guess for the dynamics within the reference class. We demonstrate the advantages of our method via a well-known simulated parametric model from ecology, simulated and real data from systems biology, and real motion-capture data.

Generating continuous-time, continuous-space stochastic processes (e.g., videos, weather forecasts) conditioned on partial observations (e.g., first and last frames) is a fundamental challenge. Existing approaches, (e.g., diffusion models), suffer from key limitations: (1) noise-to-data evolution fails to capture structural similarity between states close in physical time and has unstable integration in low-step regimes; (2) random noise injected is insensitive to the physical process's time elapsed, resulting in incorrect dynamics; (3) they overlook conditioning on arbitrary subsets of states (e.g., irregularly sampled timesteps, future observations). We propose ABC: Any-Subset Autoregressive Models via Non-Markovian Diffusion Bridges in Continuous Time and Space. Crucially, we model the process with one continual SDE whose time variable and intermediate states track the real time and process states. This has provable advantages: (1) the starting point for generating future states is the already-close previous state, rather than uninformative noise; (2) random noise injection scales with physical time elapsed, encouraging physically plausible dynamics with similar time-adjacent states. We derive SDE dynamics via changes-of-measure on path space, yielding another advantage: (3) path-dependent conditioning on arbitrary subsets of the state history and/or future. To learn these dynamics, we derive a path- and time-dependent extension of denoising score matching. Our experiments show ABC's superiority to competing methods on multiple domains, including video generation and weather forecasting.

The varying significance of distinct primitive behaviors during the policy learning process has been overlooked by prior model-free RL algorithms. Leveraging this insight, we explore the causal relationship between different action dimensions and rewards to evaluate the significance of various primitive behaviors during training. We introduce a causality-aware entropy term that effectively identifies and prioritizes actions with high potential impacts for efficient exploration. Furthermore, to prevent excessive focus on specific primitive behaviors, we analyze the gradient dormancy phenomenon and introduce a dormancy-guided reset mechanism to further enhance the efficacy of our method. Our proposed algorithm, ACE: Off-policy Actor-critic with Causality-aware Entropy regularization, demonstrates a substantial performance advantage across 29 diverse continuous control tasks spanning 7 domains compared to model-free RL baselines, which underscores the effectiveness, versatility, and efficient sample efficiency of our approach. Benchmark results and videos are available at https://ace-rl.github.io/.

Large-scale traffic forecasting relies on fixed sensor networks that often exhibit blackouts: contiguous intervals of missing measurements caused by detector or communication failures. These outages are typically handled under a Missing At Random (MAR) assumption, even though blackout events may correlate with unobserved traffic conditions (e.g., congestion or anomalous flow), motivating a Missing Not At Random (MNAR) treatment. We propose a latent state-space framework that jointly models (i) traffic dynamics via a linear dynamical system and (ii) sensor dropout via a Bernoulli observation channel whose probability depends on the latent traffic state. Inference uses an Extended Kalman Filter with Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoothing, and parameters are learned via an approximate EM procedure with a dedicated update for detector-specific missingness parameters. On the Seattle inductive loop detector data, introducing latent dynamics yields large gains over naive baselines, reducing blackout imputation RMSE from 7.02 (LOCF) and 5.02 (linear interpolation + seasonal naive) to 4.23 (MAR LDS), corresponding to about a 64% reduction in MSE relative to LOCF. Explicit MNAR modeling provides a consistent but smaller additional improvement on real data (imputation RMSE 4.20; 0.8% RMSE reduction relative to MAR), with similar modest gains for short-horizon post-blackout forecasts (evaluated at 1, 3, and 6 steps). In controlled synthetic experiments, the MNAR advantage increases as the true missingness dependence on latent state strengthens. Overall, temporal dynamics dominate performance, while MNAR modeling offers a principled refinement that becomes most valuable when missingness is genuinely informative.

Language agents have demonstrated autonomous decision-making abilities by reasoning with foundation models. Recently, efforts have been made to train language agents for performance improvement, with multi-step reasoning and action trajectories as the training data. However, collecting such trajectories still requires considerable human effort, by either artificial annotation or implementations of diverse prompting frameworks. In this work, we propose A^3T, a framework that enables the Autonomous Annotation of Agent Trajectories in the style of ReAct. The central role is an ActRe prompting agent, which explains the reason for an arbitrary action. When randomly sampling an external action, the ReAct-style agent could query the ActRe agent with the action to obtain its textual rationales. Novel trajectories are then synthesized by prepending the posterior reasoning from ActRe to the sampled action. In this way, the ReAct-style agent executes multiple trajectories for the failed tasks, and selects the successful ones to supplement its failed trajectory for contrastive self-training. Realized by policy gradient methods with binarized rewards, the contrastive self-training with accumulated trajectories facilitates a closed loop for multiple rounds of language agent self-improvement. We conduct experiments using QLoRA fine-tuning with the open-sourced Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.2. In AlfWorld, the agent trained with A^3T obtains a 1-shot success rate of 96%, and 100% success with 4 iterative rounds. In WebShop, the 1-shot performance of the A^3T agent matches human average, and 4 rounds of iterative refinement lead to the performance approaching human experts. A^3T agents significantly outperform existing techniques, including prompting with GPT-4, advanced agent frameworks, and fully fine-tuned LLMs.

Generative models, like flows and diffusions, have recently emerged as popular and efficacious policy parameterizations in robotics. There has been much speculation as to the factors underlying their successes, ranging from capturing multi-modal action distribution to expressing more complex behaviors. In this work, we perform a comprehensive evaluation of popular generative control policies (GCPs) on common behavior cloning (BC) benchmarks. We find that GCPs do not owe their success to their ability to capture multi-modality or to express more complex observation-to-action mappings. Instead, we find that their advantage stems from iterative computation, as long as intermediate steps are supervised during training and this supervision is paired with a suitable level of stochasticity. As a validation of our findings, we show that a minimum iterative policy (MIP), a lightweight two-step regression-based policy, essentially matches the performance of flow GCPs, and often outperforms distilled shortcut models. Our results suggest that the distribution-fitting component of GCPs is less salient than commonly believed, and point toward new design spaces focusing solely on control performance. Project page: https://simchowitzlabpublic.github.io/much-ado-about-noising-project/

Maritime vessel maneuvers, characterized by their inherent complexity and indeterminacy, requires vessel trajectory prediction system capable of modeling the multi-modality nature of future motion states. Conventional stochastic trajectory prediction methods utilize latent variables to represent the multi-modality of vessel motion, however, tends to overlook the complexity and dynamics inherent in maritime behavior. In contrast, we explicitly simulate the transition of vessel motion from uncertainty towards a state of certainty, effectively handling future indeterminacy in dynamic scenes. In this paper, we present a novel framework (DiffuTraj) to conceptualize the trajectory prediction task as a guided reverse process of motion pattern uncertainty diffusion, in which we progressively remove uncertainty from maritime regions to delineate the intended trajectory. Specifically, we encode the previous states of the target vessel, vessel-vessel interactions, and the environment context as guiding factors for trajectory generation. Subsequently, we devise a transformer-based conditional denoiser to capture spatio-temporal dependencies, enabling the generation of trajectories better aligned for particular maritime environment. Comprehensive experiments on vessel trajectory prediction benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of our method.

Effective spatio-temporal representation is fundamental to modeling, understanding, and predicting dynamics in videos. The atomic unit of a video, the pixel, traces a continuous 3D trajectory over time, serving as the primitive element of dynamics. Based on this principle, we propose representing any video as a Trajectory Field: a dense mapping that assigns a continuous 3D trajectory function of time to each pixel in every frame. With this representation, we introduce Trace Anything, a neural network that predicts the entire trajectory field in a single feed-forward pass. Specifically, for each pixel in each frame, our model predicts a set of control points that parameterizes a trajectory (i.e., a B-spline), yielding its 3D position at arbitrary query time instants. We trained the Trace Anything model on large-scale 4D data, including data from our new platform, and our experiments demonstrate that: (i) Trace Anything achieves state-of-the-art performance on our new benchmark for trajectory field estimation and performs competitively on established point-tracking benchmarks; (ii) it offers significant efficiency gains thanks to its one-pass paradigm, without requiring iterative optimization or auxiliary estimators; and (iii) it exhibits emergent abilities, including goal-conditioned manipulation, motion forecasting, and spatio-temporal fusion. Project page: https://trace-anything.github.io/.

In this paper, we propose a third-order, i.e., white-noise-on-jerk, Gaussian Process (GP) Trajectory Representation (TR) framework for continuous-time (CT) motion estimation (ME) tasks. Our framework features a unified trajectory representation that encapsulates the kinematic models of both SO(3)timesR^3 and SE(3) pose representations. This encapsulation strategy allows users to use the same implementation of measurement-based factors for either choice of pose representation, which facilitates experimentation and comparison to achieve the best model for the ME task. In addition, unique to our framework, we derive the kinematic models with the closed-form temporal derivatives of the local variable of SO(3) and SE(3), which so far has only been approximated based on the Taylor expansion in the literature. Our experiments show that these kinematic models can improve the estimation accuracy in high-speed scenarios. All analytical Jacobians of the interpolated states with respect to the support states of the trajectory representation, as well as the motion prior factors, are also provided for accelerated Gauss-Newton (GN) optimization. Our experiments demonstrate the efficacy and efficiency of the framework in various motion estimation tasks such as localization, calibration, and odometry, facilitating fast prototyping for ME researchers. We release the source code for the benefit of the community. Our project is available at https://github.com/brytsknguyen/gptr.

State space models (SSMs) have shown remarkable empirical performance on many long sequence modeling tasks, but a theoretical understanding of these models is still lacking. In this work, we study the learning dynamics of linear SSMs to understand how covariance structure in data, latent state size, and initialization affect the evolution of parameters throughout learning with gradient descent. We show that focusing on the learning dynamics in the frequency domain affords analytical solutions under mild assumptions, and we establish a link between one-dimensional SSMs and the dynamics of deep linear feed-forward networks. Finally, we analyze how latent state over-parameterization affects convergence time and describe future work in extending our results to the study of deep SSMs with nonlinear connections. This work is a step toward a theory of learning dynamics in deep state space models.

We present Chain-of-Action (CoA), a novel visuo-motor policy paradigm built upon Trajectory Autoregressive Modeling. Unlike conventional approaches that predict next step action(s) forward, CoA generates an entire trajectory by explicit backward reasoning with task-specific goals through an action-level Chain-of-Thought (CoT) process. This process is unified within a single autoregressive structure: (1) the first token corresponds to a stable keyframe action that encodes the task-specific goals; and (2) subsequent action tokens are generated autoregressively, conditioned on the initial keyframe and previously predicted actions. This backward action reasoning enforces a global-to-local structure, allowing each local action to be tightly constrained by the final goal. To further realize the action reasoning structure, CoA incorporates four complementary designs: continuous action token representation; dynamic stopping for variable-length trajectory generation; reverse temporal ensemble; and multi-token prediction to balance action chunk modeling with global structure. As a result, CoA gives strong spatial generalization capabilities while preserving the flexibility and simplicity of a visuo-motor policy. Empirically, we observe CoA achieves the state-of-the-art performance across 60 RLBench tasks and 8 real-world manipulation tasks.

The theory of state tracking in recurrent architectures has predominantly focused on expressive capacity: whether a fixed architecture can theoretically realize a set of symbolic transition rules. We argue that equally important is error control, the dynamics governing hidden-state drift along the directions that distinguish symbolic states. We prove that affine recurrent networks, a class of models encompassing State-Space Models and Linear Attention, cannot correct errors along state-separating subspaces once they preserve state representations. Consequently, practical affine trackers do not learn robust state tracking; rather, they learn finite horizon solutions governed by accumulated state-relevant error. We characterize the mechanics of this failure, showing that tracking remains readable only while the accumulating within-class spread remains small relative to the initial between-class separation. We demonstrate empirically on group state-tracking tasks that this breakdown is predictable: tracking collapses when the distinguishability ratio crosses the readability threshold of the trained decoder. Across trained models, the point of this crossing predicts the horizon at which downstream accuracy fails. These results establish that robust state tracking is determined not only by an architecture's theoretical expressivity but crucially by its error control.

Computer-use agents provide a promising path toward general software automation because they can interact directly with arbitrary graphical user interfaces instead of relying on brittle, application-specific integrations. Despite recent advances in benchmark performance, strong computer-use agents remain expensive and slow in practice, since most systems invoke large multimodal models at nearly every interaction step. We argue that this uniform allocation of compute is fundamentally inefficient for long-horizon GUI tasks. Such trajectories are highly heterogeneous: many steps are routine and can be handled reliably by smaller, cheaper policies, while errors tend to concentrate at a relatively small number of high-risk moments. Across computer-use benchmarks, these failures repeatedly take two forms: progress stalls, where the agent loops, repeats ineffective actions, or fails to make meaningful progress, and silent semantic drift, where the agent continues taking locally plausible actions after already deviating from the user's true goal. To address this inefficiency, we propose an event-driven, step-level cascade for computer-use agents that runs a small policy by default and escalates to a stronger model only when lightweight learned monitors detect elevated risk. Our framework combines two complementary signals: a Stuck Monitor that detects degraded progress from recent reasoning-action history and triggers recovery, and a Milestone Monitor that identifies semantically meaningful checkpoints where sparse verification is most informative for catching drift. This design turns always-on frontier-model inference into adaptive, on-demand compute allocation over the course of an evolving interaction. The framework is modular and deployment-oriented: it can be layered on top of existing computer-use agents without changing the underlying agent architecture or retraining the large model.

Imitation from observation is a computational technique that teaches an agent on how to mimic the behavior of an expert by observing only the sequence of states from the expert demonstrations. Recent approaches learn the inverse dynamics of the environment and an imitation policy by interleaving epochs of both models while changing the demonstration data. However, such approaches often get stuck into sub-optimal solutions that are distant from the expert, limiting their imitation effectiveness. We address this problem with a novel approach that overcomes the problem of reaching bad local minima by exploring: (I) a self-attention mechanism that better captures global features of the states; and (ii) a sampling strategy that regulates the observations that are used for learning. We show empirically that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches in four different environments by a large margin.

Classical state estimation algorithms rely on predefined target's state-space model, which complicates model derivation and limits adaptability when system dynamics change. Neural network based estimators offer a data-driven alternative, but rarely fuse classical estimation theory into their structure and demand large, pre-computed training sets. To overcome these limitations, we propose a unified state-space structure without target's state-space model and treats both the input-layer activations and all network weights as latent states to be estimated online. We instantiate this nonlinear model with three canonical estimators-the extended Kalman estimator, the unscented Kalman estimator, and the particle estimator to simulate different neural network and demonstrate its generality. We then benchmark our approach against seven leading neural network estimators across three representative scenarios. Results show that our neural network state-space estimators not only retain the robust learning capability, but also match or exceed the accuracy of both classical and pre-trained neural network methods. Code, data, and more result: github.com/ShineMinxing/PaperNNSSE.git

Interpretable time series prediction is crucial for safety-critical areas such as healthcare and autonomous driving. Most existing methods focus on interpreting predictions by assigning important scores to segments of time series. In this paper, we take a different and more challenging route and aim at developing a self-interpretable model, dubbed Counterfactual Time Series (CounTS), which generates counterfactual and actionable explanations for time series predictions. Specifically, we formalize the problem of time series counterfactual explanations, establish associated evaluation protocols, and propose a variational Bayesian deep learning model equipped with counterfactual inference capability of time series abduction, action, and prediction. Compared with state-of-the-art baselines, our self-interpretable model can generate better counterfactual explanations while maintaining comparable prediction accuracy.

Tracking by detection has been the prevailing paradigm in the field of Multi-object Tracking (MOT). These methods typically rely on the Kalman Filter to estimate the future locations of objects, assuming linear object motion. However, they fall short when tracking objects exhibiting nonlinear and diverse motion in scenarios like dancing and sports. In addition, there has been limited focus on utilizing learning-based motion predictors in MOT. To address these challenges, we resort to exploring data-driven motion prediction methods. Inspired by the great expectation of state space models (SSMs), such as Mamba, in long-term sequence modeling with near-linear complexity, we introduce a Mamba-based motion model named Mamba moTion Predictor (MTP). MTP is designed to model the complex motion patterns of objects like dancers and athletes. Specifically, MTP takes the spatial-temporal location dynamics of objects as input, captures the motion pattern using a bi-Mamba encoding layer, and predicts the next motion. In real-world scenarios, objects may be missed due to occlusion or motion blur, leading to premature termination of their trajectories. To tackle this challenge, we further expand the application of MTP. We employ it in an autoregressive way to compensate for missing observations by utilizing its own predictions as inputs, thereby contributing to more consistent trajectories. Our proposed tracker, MambaTrack, demonstrates advanced performance on benchmarks such as Dancetrack and SportsMOT, which are characterized by complex motion and severe occlusion.

Off-policy learning from multistep returns is crucial for sample-efficient reinforcement learning, but counteracting off-policy bias without exacerbating variance is challenging. Classically, off-policy bias is corrected in a per-decision manner: past temporal-difference errors are re-weighted by the instantaneous Importance Sampling (IS) ratio after each action via eligibility traces. Many off-policy algorithms rely on this mechanism, along with differing protocols for cutting the IS ratios to combat the variance of the IS estimator. Unfortunately, once a trace has been fully cut, the effect cannot be reversed. This has led to the development of credit-assignment strategies that account for multiple past experiences at a time. These trajectory-aware methods have not been extensively analyzed, and their theoretical justification remains uncertain. In this paper, we propose a multistep operator that can express both per-decision and trajectory-aware methods. We prove convergence conditions for our operator in the tabular setting, establishing the first guarantees for several existing methods as well as many new ones. Finally, we introduce Recency-Bounded Importance Sampling (RBIS), which leverages trajectory awareness to perform robustly across lambda-values in an off-policy control task.

We formalize action emergence as a target capability for end-to-end autonomous driving: the ability to generate physically feasible, semantically appropriate, and safety-compliant actions in arbitrary, long-tail traffic scenes through scene-conditioned reasoning rather than retrieval or interpolation of learned scene-action mappings. We show that previous paradigms cannot deliver action emergence: autoregressive trajectory decoders collapse the inherently multimodal future into a single averaged output, while diffusion and flow-matching generators express multimodality but are not steerable by reasoned intent. We propose Streaming Intent as a concrete way to approach action emergence: a mechanism that makes driving intent (i) semantically streamed through a continuous chain-of-thought that causally derives the intent from scene understanding, and (ii) temporally streamed across clips so that intent commitments remain coherent along the driving horizon. We realize Streaming Intent in a VLA model we call SI (Streaming Intent). SI autoregressively decodes a four-step chain-of-thought and emits an intent token; the decoded intent then drives classifier-free guidance (CFG) on a flow-matching action head, requiring only two denoising steps to generate the final trajectory. On the Waymo End-to-End benchmark, SI achieves competitive aggregate performance, with an RFS score of 7.96 on the validation set and 7.74 on the test set. Beyond aggregate metrics, the model demonstrates -- to our knowledge for the first time in a fully end-to-end VLA -- intent-faithful controllability: for a fixed scene, varying the intent class at inference yields qualitatively distinct yet consistently high-quality plans, arising purely from data-driven learning without any pre-built trajectory bank or hand-coded post-hoc selector.

Automated Vehicles (AVs) promise significant advances in transportation. Critical to these improvements is understanding AVs' longitudinal behavior, relying heavily on real-world trajectory data. Existing open-source trajectory datasets of AV, however, often fall short in refinement, reliability, and completeness, hindering effective performance metrics analysis and model development. This study addresses these challenges by creating a Unified Longitudinal TRAjectory dataset for AVs (Ultra-AV) to analyze their microscopic longitudinal driving behaviors. This dataset compiles data from 13 distinct sources, encompassing various AV types, test sites, and experiment scenarios. We established a three-step data processing: 1. extraction of longitudinal trajectory data, 2. general data cleaning, and 3. data-specific cleaning to obtain the longitudinal trajectory data and car-following trajectory data. The validity of the processed data is affirmed through performance evaluations across safety, mobility, stability, and sustainability, along with an analysis of the relationships between variables in car-following models. Our work not only furnishes researchers with standardized data and metrics for longitudinal AV behavior studies but also sets guidelines for data collection and model development.

State-space models (SSMs) offer a powerful framework for dynamical system analysis, wherein the temporal dynamics of the system are assumed to be captured through the evolution of the latent states, which govern the values of the observations. This paper provides a selective review of recent advancements in deep neural network-based approaches for SSMs, and presents a unified perspective for discrete time deep state space models and continuous time ones such as latent neural Ordinary Differential and Stochastic Differential Equations. It starts with an overview of the classical maximum likelihood based approach for learning SSMs, reviews variational autoencoder as a general learning pipeline for neural network-based approaches in the presence of latent variables, and discusses in detail representative deep learning models that fall under the SSM framework. Very recent developments, where SSMs are used as standalone architectural modules for improving efficiency in sequence modeling, are also examined. Finally, examples involving mixed frequency and irregularly-spaced time series data are presented to demonstrate the advantage of SSMs in these settings.

We generalise the problem of reward modelling (RM) for reinforcement learning (RL) to handle non-Markovian rewards. Existing work assumes that human evaluators observe each step in a trajectory independently when providing feedback on agent behaviour. In this work, we remove this assumption, extending RM to capture temporal dependencies in human assessment of trajectories. We show how RM can be approached as a multiple instance learning (MIL) problem, where trajectories are treated as bags with return labels, and steps within the trajectories are instances with unseen reward labels. We go on to develop new MIL models that are able to capture the time dependencies in labelled trajectories. We demonstrate on a range of RL tasks that our novel MIL models can reconstruct reward functions to a high level of accuracy, and can be used to train high-performing agent policies.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

LLM-based deep research agents are largely built on the ReAct framework. This linear design makes it difficult to revisit earlier states, branch into alternative search directions, or maintain global awareness under long contexts, often leading to local optima, redundant exploration, and inefficient search. We propose Re-TRAC, an agentic framework that performs cross-trajectory exploration by generating a structured state representation after each trajectory to summarize evidence, uncertainties, failures, and future plans, and conditioning subsequent trajectories on this state representation. This enables iterative reflection and globally informed planning, reframing research as a progressive process. Empirical results show that Re-TRAC consistently outperforms ReAct by 15-20% on BrowseComp with frontier LLMs. For smaller models, we introduce Re-TRAC-aware supervised fine-tuning, achieving state-of-the-art performance at comparable scales. Notably, Re-TRAC shows a monotonic reduction in tool calls and token usage across rounds, indicating progressively targeted exploration driven by cross-trajectory reflection rather than redundant search.

We present a novel data-driven simulation environment for modeling traffic in metropolitan street intersections. Using real-world tracking data collected over an extended period of time, we train trajectory forecasting models to learn agent interactions and environmental constraints that are difficult to capture conventionally. Trajectories of new agents are first coarsely generated by sampling from the spatial and temporal generative distributions, then refined using state-of-the-art trajectory forecasting models. The simulation can run either autonomously, or under explicit human control conditioned on the generative distributions. We present the experiments for a variety of model configurations. Under an iterative prediction scheme, the way-point-supervised TrajNet++ model obtained 0.36 Final Displacement Error (FDE) in 20 FPS on an NVIDIA A100 GPU.

Structured state-space models (SSMs) such as S4, stemming from the seminal work of Gu et al., are gaining popularity as effective approaches for modeling sequential data. Deep SSMs demonstrate outstanding performance across a diverse set of domains, at a reduced training and inference cost compared to attention-based transformers. Recent developments show that if the linear recurrence powering SSMs allows for multiplicative interactions between inputs and hidden states (e.g. GateLoop, Mamba, GLA), then the resulting architecture can surpass in both in accuracy and efficiency attention-powered foundation models trained on text, at scales of billion parameters. In this paper, we give theoretical grounding to this recent finding using tools from Rough Path Theory: we show that when random linear recurrences are equipped with simple input-controlled transitions (selectivity mechanism), then the hidden state is provably a low-dimensional projection of a powerful mathematical object called the signature of the input -- capturing non-linear interactions between tokens at distinct timescales. Our theory not only motivates the success of modern selective state-space models such as Mamba but also provides a solid framework to understand the expressive power of future SSM variants.

End-to-end GUI agents for real desktop environments require large amounts of high-quality interaction data, yet collecting human demonstrations is expensive and existing synthetic pipelines often suffer from limited task diversity or noisy, goal-drifting trajectories. We present a trajectory expansion framework Anchor that bootstraps scalable desktop supervision from a small set of verified seed demonstrations. Starting from each seed, we identify branch points that correspond to meaningful state changes and propose new, state-grounded task variants conditioned on the current GUI context. An executing agent then follows the proposed instructions to generate new trajectories, while a verifier enforces task completion via state-aware checks and trajectory-level consistency. To improve supervision quality, we further apply task-conditioned step-level filtering to remove ungrounded actions and denoise post-branch segments to maintain coherent intent. Experiments on standard desktop benchmarks, OSWorld and WindowsAgentArena, show that models fine-tuned on our expanded corpus achieve consistent improvements over zero-shot agents and representative synthesis baselines, and generalize across applications and operating systems.

Inferring physical actions from visual observations is a fundamental capability for advancing machine intelligence in the physical world. Achieving this requires large-scale, open-vocabulary video action datasets that span broad domains. We introduce Action100M, a large-scale dataset constructed from 1.2M Internet instructional videos (14.6 years of duration), yielding O(100 million) temporally localized segments with open-vocabulary action supervision and rich captions. Action100M is generated by a fully automated pipeline that (i) performs hierarchical temporal segmentation using V-JEPA 2 embeddings, (ii) produces multi-level frame and segment captions organized as a Tree-of-Captions, and (iii) aggregates evidence with a reasoning model (GPT-OSS-120B) under a multi-round Self-Refine procedure to output structured annotations (brief/detailed action, actor, brief/detailed caption). Training VL-JEPA on Action100M demonstrates consistent data-scaling improvements and strong zero-shot performance across diverse action recognition benchmarks, establishing Action100M as a new foundation for scalable research in video understanding and world modeling.

Code agents can autonomously resolve GitHub issues, yet when they fail, current evaluation provides no visibility into where or why. Metrics such as Pass@1 collapse an entire execution into a single binary outcome, making it difficult to identify where and why the agent went wrong. To address this limitation, we introduce TRAJEVAL, a diagnostic framework that decomposes agent trajectories into three interpretable stages: search (file localization), read (function comprehension), and edit (modification targeting). For each stage, we compute precision and recall by comparing against reference patches. Analyzing 16,758 trajectories across three agent architectures and seven models, we find universal inefficiencies (all agents examine approximately 22x more functions than necessary) yet distinct failure modes: GPT-5 locates relevant code but targets edits incorrectly, while Qwen-32B fails at file discovery entirely. We validate that these diagnostics are predictive, achieving model-level Pass@1 prediction within 0.87-2.1% MAE, and actionable: real-time feedback based on trajectory signals improves two state-of-the-art models by 2.2-4.6 percentage points while reducing costs by 20-31%. These results demonstrate that our framework not only provides a more fine-grained analysis of agent behavior, but also translates diagnostic signals into tangible performance gains. More broadly, TRAJEVAL transforms agent evaluation beyond outcome-based benchmarking toward mechanism-driven diagnosis of agent success and failure.

This paper studies the sample-efficiency of learning in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), a challenging problem in reinforcement learning that is known to be exponentially hard in the worst-case. Motivated by real-world settings such as loading in game playing, we propose an enhanced feedback model called ``multiple observations in hindsight'', where after each episode of interaction with the POMDP, the learner may collect multiple additional observations emitted from the encountered latent states, but may not observe the latent states themselves. We show that sample-efficient learning under this feedback model is possible for two new subclasses of POMDPs: multi-observation revealing POMDPs and distinguishable POMDPs. Both subclasses generalize and substantially relax revealing POMDPs -- a widely studied subclass for which sample-efficient learning is possible under standard trajectory feedback. Notably, distinguishable POMDPs only require the emission distributions from different latent states to be different instead of linearly independent as required in revealing POMDPs.

In this paper, we address the problem of human trajectory forecasting, which aims to predict the inherently multi-modal future movements of humans based on their past trajectories and other contextual cues. We propose a novel motion prediction conditional flow matching model, termed MoFlow, to predict K-shot future trajectories for all agents in a given scene. We design a novel flow matching loss function that not only ensures at least one of the K sets of future trajectories is accurate but also encourages all K sets of future trajectories to be diverse and plausible. Furthermore, by leveraging the implicit maximum likelihood estimation (IMLE), we propose a novel distillation method for flow models that only requires samples from the teacher model. Extensive experiments on the real-world datasets, including SportVU NBA games, ETH-UCY, and SDD, demonstrate that both our teacher flow model and the IMLE-distilled student model achieve state-of-the-art performance. These models can generate diverse trajectories that are physically and socially plausible. Moreover, our one-step student model is 100 times faster than the teacher flow model during sampling. The code, model, and data are available at our project page: https://moflow-imle.github.io

The performance of autonomous Web GUI agents heavily relies on the quality and quantity of their training data. However, a fundamental bottleneck persists: collecting interaction trajectories from real-world websites is expensive and difficult to verify. The underlying state transitions are hidden, leading to reliance on inconsistent and costly external verifiers to evaluate step-level correctness. To address this, we propose AutoWebWorld, a novel framework for synthesizing controllable and verifiable web environments by modeling them as Finite State Machines (FSMs) and use coding agents to translate FSMs into interactive websites. Unlike real websites, where state transitions are implicit, AutoWebWorld explicitly defines all states, actions, and transition rules. This enables programmatic verification: action correctness is checked against predefined rules, and task success is confirmed by reaching a goal state in the FSM graph. AutoWebWorld enables a fully automated search-and-verify pipeline, generating over 11,663 verified trajectories from 29 diverse web environments at only $0.04 per trajectory. Training on this synthetic data significantly boosts real-world performance. Our 7B Web GUI agent outperforms all baselines within 15 steps on WebVoyager. Furthermore, we observe a clear scaling law: as the synthetic data volume increases, performance on WebVoyager and Online-Mind2Web consistently improves.

In real-world scenarios, the application of reinforcement learning is significantly challenged by complex non-stationarity. Most existing methods attempt to model changes in the environment explicitly, often requiring impractical prior knowledge of environments. In this paper, we propose a new perspective, positing that non-stationarity can propagate and accumulate through complex causal relationships during state transitions, thereby compounding its sophistication and affecting policy learning. We believe that this challenge can be more effectively addressed by implicitly tracing the causal origin of non-stationarity. To this end, we introduce the Causal-Origin REPresentation (COREP) algorithm. COREP primarily employs a guided updating mechanism to learn a stable graph representation for the state, termed as causal-origin representation. By leveraging this representation, the learned policy exhibits impressive resilience to non-stationarity. We supplement our approach with a theoretical analysis grounded in the causal interpretation for non-stationary reinforcement learning, advocating for the validity of the causal-origin representation. Experimental results further demonstrate the superior performance of COREP over existing methods in tackling non-stationarity problems.

Classification of movement trajectories has many applications in transportation. Supervised neural models represent the current state-of-the-art. Recent security applications require this task to be rapidly employed in environments that may differ from the data used to train such models for which there is little training data. We provide a neuro-symbolic rule-based framework to conduct error correction and detection of these models to support eventual deployment in security applications. We provide a suite of experiments on several recent and state-of-the-art models and show an accuracy improvement of 1.7% over the SOTA model in the case where all classes are present in training and when 40% of classes are omitted from training, we obtain a 5.2% improvement (zero-shot) and 23.9% (few-shot) improvement over the SOTA model without resorting to retraining of the base model.

We propose a standalone autoregressive (AR) Action Expert that generates actions as a continuous causal sequence while conditioning on refreshable vision-language prefixes. In contrast to existing Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models and diffusion policies that reset temporal context with each new observation and predict actions reactively, our Action Expert maintains its own history through a long-lived memory and is inherently context-aware. This structure addresses the frequency mismatch between fast control and slow reasoning, enabling efficient independent pretraining of kinematic syntax and modular integration with heavy perception backbones, naturally ensuring spatio-temporally consistent action generation across frames. To synchronize these asynchronous hybrid V-L-A modalities, we utilize a re-anchoring mechanism that mathematically accounts for perception staleness during both training and inference. Experiments on simulated and real-robot manipulation tasks demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively replace traditional chunk-based action heads for both specialist and generalist policies. AR-VLA exhibits superior history awareness and substantially smoother action trajectories while maintaining or exceeding the task success rates of state-of-the-art reactive VLAs. Overall, our work introduces a scalable, context-aware action generation schema that provides a robust structural foundation for training effective robotic policies. Code and Videos available at https://arvla.insait.ai

We study a new paradigm for sequential decision making, called offline Policy Learning from Observation (PLfO). Offline PLfO aims to learn policies using datasets with substandard qualities: 1) only a subset of trajectories is labeled with rewards, 2) labeled trajectories may not contain actions, 3) labeled trajectories may not be of high quality, and 4) the overall data may not have full coverage. Such imperfection is common in real-world learning scenarios, so offline PLfO encompasses many existing offline learning setups, including offline imitation learning (IL), ILfO, and reinforcement learning (RL). In this work, we present a generic approach, called Modality-agnostic Adversarial Hypothesis Adaptation for Learning from Observations (MAHALO), for offline PLfO. Built upon the pessimism concept in offline RL, MAHALO optimizes the policy using a performance lower bound that accounts for uncertainty due to the dataset's insufficient converge. We implement this idea by adversarially training data-consistent critic and reward functions in policy optimization, which forces the learned policy to be robust to the data deficiency. We show that MAHALO consistently outperforms or matches specialized algorithms across a variety of offline PLfO tasks in theory and experiments.

Modeling and generating human reactions poses a significant challenge with broad applications for computer vision and human-computer interaction. Existing methods either treat multiple individuals as a single entity, directly generating interactions, or rely solely on one person's motion to generate the other's reaction, failing to integrate the rich semantic information that underpins human interactions. Yet, these methods often fall short in adaptive responsiveness, i.e., the ability to accurately respond to diverse and dynamic interaction scenarios. Recognizing this gap, our work introduces an approach tailored to address the limitations of existing models by focusing on text-driven human reaction generation. Our model specifically generates realistic motion sequences for individuals that responding to the other's actions based on a descriptive text of the interaction scenario. The goal is to produce motion sequences that not only complement the opponent's movements but also semantically fit the described interactions. To achieve this, we present MoReact, a diffusion-based method designed to disentangle the generation of global trajectories and local motions sequentially. This approach stems from the observation that generating global trajectories first is crucial for guiding local motion, ensuring better alignment with given action and text. Furthermore, we introduce a novel interaction loss to enhance the realism of generated close interactions. Our experiments, utilizing data adapted from a two-person motion dataset, demonstrate the efficacy of our approach for this novel task, which is capable of producing realistic, diverse, and controllable reactions that not only closely match the movements of the counterpart but also adhere to the textual guidance. Please find our webpage at https://xiyan-xu.github.io/MoReactWebPage.

The field of trajectory forecasting has grown significantly in recent years, partially owing to the release of numerous large-scale, real-world human trajectory datasets for autonomous vehicles (AVs) and pedestrian motion tracking. While such datasets have been a boon for the community, they each use custom and unique data formats and APIs, making it cumbersome for researchers to train and evaluate methods across multiple datasets. To remedy this, we present trajdata: a unified interface to multiple human trajectory datasets. At its core, trajdata provides a simple, uniform, and efficient representation and API for trajectory and map data. As a demonstration of its capabilities, in this work we conduct a comprehensive empirical evaluation of existing trajectory datasets, providing users with a rich understanding of the data underpinning much of current pedestrian and AV motion forecasting research, and proposing suggestions for future datasets from these insights. trajdata is permissively licensed (Apache 2.0) and can be accessed online at https://github.com/NVlabs/trajdata

Predicting future motion is crucial in video understanding and controllable video generation. Dense point trajectories are a compact, expressive motion representation, but modeling their future evolution from observed video remains challenging. We propose a framework that predicts future trajectories and visibility from past trajectories and video context. Our method has three components: (1) Grid-Anchor Offset Encoding, which reduces location-dependent bias by representing each point as an offset from its pixel-center anchor; (2) TrajLoom-VAE, which learns a compact spatiotemporal latent space for dense trajectories with masked reconstruction and a spatiotemporal consistency regularizer; and (3) TrajLoom-Flow, which generates future trajectories in latent space via flow matching, with boundary cues and on-policy K-step fine-tuning for stable sampling. We also introduce TrajLoomBench, a unified benchmark spanning real and synthetic videos with a standardized setup aligned with video-generation benchmarks. Compared with state-of-the-art methods, our approach extends the prediction horizon from 24 to 81 frames while improving motion realism and stability across datasets. The predicted trajectories directly support downstream video generation and editing. Code, model checkpoints, and datasets are available at https://trajloom.github.io/.

Robotic imitation learning has advanced from solving static tasks to addressing dynamic interaction scenarios, but testing and evaluation remain costly and challenging due to the need for real-time interaction with dynamic environments. We propose EnerVerse-AC (EVAC), an action-conditional world model that generates future visual observations based on an agent's predicted actions, enabling realistic and controllable robotic inference. Building on prior architectures, EVAC introduces a multi-level action-conditioning mechanism and ray map encoding for dynamic multi-view image generation while expanding training data with diverse failure trajectories to improve generalization. As both a data engine and evaluator, EVAC augments human-collected trajectories into diverse datasets and generates realistic, action-conditioned video observations for policy testing, eliminating the need for physical robots or complex simulations. This approach significantly reduces costs while maintaining high fidelity in robotic manipulation evaluation. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our method. Code, checkpoints, and datasets can be found at <https://annaj2178.github.io/EnerverseAC.github.io>.

Large language models are increasingly deployed as autonomous agents executing multi-step workflows in real-world software environments. However, existing agent benchmarks suffer from three critical limitations: (1) trajectory-opaque grading that checks only final outputs, (2) underspecified safety and robustness evaluation, and (3) narrow modality coverage and interaction paradigms. We introduce Claw-Eval, an end-to-end evaluation suite addressing all three gaps. It comprises 300 human-verified tasks spanning 9 categories across three groups (general service orchestration, multimodal perception and generation, and multi-turn professional dialogue). Every agent action is recorded through three independent evidence channels (execution traces, audit logs, and environment snapshots), enabling trajectory-aware grading over 2,159 fine-grained rubric items. The scoring protocol evaluates Completion, Safety, and Robustness, reporting Average Score, Pass@k, and Pass^k across three trials to distinguish genuine capability from lucky outcomes. Experiments on 14 frontier models reveal that: (1) trajectory-opaque evaluation is systematically unreliable, missing 44% of safety violations and 13% of robustness failures that our hybrid pipeline catches; (2) controlled error injection primarily degrades consistency rather than peak capability, with Pass^3 dropping up to 24% while Pass@3 remains stable; (3) multimodal performance varies sharply, with most models performing poorer on video than on document or image, and no single model dominating across all modalities. Beyond benchmarking, Claw-Eval highlights actionable directions for agent development, shedding light on what it takes to build agents that are not only capable but reliably deployable.

Tracking objects in three-dimensional space is critical for autonomous driving. To ensure safety while driving, the tracker must be able to reliably track objects across frames and accurately estimate their states such as velocity and acceleration in the present. Existing works frequently focus on the association task while either neglecting the model performance on state estimation or deploying complex heuristics to predict the states. In this paper, we propose STT, a Stateful Tracking model built with Transformers, that can consistently track objects in the scenes while also predicting their states accurately. STT consumes rich appearance, geometry, and motion signals through long term history of detections and is jointly optimized for both data association and state estimation tasks. Since the standard tracking metrics like MOTA and MOTP do not capture the combined performance of the two tasks in the wider spectrum of object states, we extend them with new metrics called S-MOTA and MOTPS that address this limitation. STT achieves competitive real-time performance on the Waymo Open Dataset.

Most offline reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms return a target policy maximizing a trade-off between (1) the expected performance gain over the behavior policy that collected the dataset, and (2) the risk stemming from the out-of-distribution-ness of the induced state-action occupancy. It follows that the performance of the target policy is strongly related to the performance of the behavior policy and, thus, the trajectory return distribution of the dataset. We show that in mixed datasets consisting of mostly low-return trajectories and minor high-return trajectories, state-of-the-art offline RL algorithms are overly restrained by low-return trajectories and fail to exploit high-performing trajectories to the fullest. To overcome this issue, we show that, in deterministic MDPs with stochastic initial states, the dataset sampling can be re-weighted to induce an artificial dataset whose behavior policy has a higher return. This re-weighted sampling strategy may be combined with any offline RL algorithm. We further analyze that the opportunity for performance improvement over the behavior policy correlates with the positive-sided variance of the returns of the trajectories in the dataset. We empirically show that while CQL, IQL, and TD3+BC achieve only a part of this potential policy improvement, these same algorithms combined with our reweighted sampling strategy fully exploit the dataset. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate that, despite its theoretical limitation, the approach may still be efficient in stochastic environments. The code is available at https://github.com/Improbable-AI/harness-offline-rl.

Recent advances in diffusion transformers have empowered video generation models to generate high-quality video clips from texts or images. However, world models with the ability to predict long-horizon futures from past observations and actions remain underexplored, especially for general-purpose scenarios and various forms of actions. To bridge this gap, we introduce Astra, an interactive general world model that generates real-world futures for diverse scenarios (e.g., autonomous driving, robot grasping) with precise action interactions (e.g., camera motion, robot action). We propose an autoregressive denoising architecture and use temporal causal attention to aggregate past observations and support streaming outputs. We use a noise-augmented history memory to avoid over-reliance on past frames to balance responsiveness with temporal coherence. For precise action control, we introduce an action-aware adapter that directly injects action signals into the denoising process. We further develop a mixture of action experts that dynamically route heterogeneous action modalities, enhancing versatility across diverse real-world tasks such as exploration, manipulation, and camera control. Astra achieves interactive, consistent, and general long-term video prediction and supports various forms of interactions. Experiments across multiple datasets demonstrate the improvements of Astra in fidelity, long-range prediction, and action alignment over existing state-of-the-art world models.

Sequential VAEs have been successfully considered for many high-dimensional time series modelling problems, with many variant models relying on discrete-time mechanisms such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs). On the other hand, continuous-time methods have recently gained attraction, especially in the context of irregularly-sampled time series, where they can better handle the data than discrete-time methods. One such class are Gaussian process variational autoencoders (GPVAEs), where the VAE prior is set as a Gaussian process (GP). However, a major limitation of GPVAEs is that it inherits the cubic computational cost as GPs, making it unattractive to practioners. In this work, we leverage the equivalent discrete state space representation of Markovian GPs to enable linear time GPVAE training via Kalman filtering and smoothing. We show on a variety of high-dimensional temporal and spatiotemporal tasks that our method performs favourably compared to existing approaches whilst being computationally highly scalable.

Trajectory data, capturing human actions and environmental states across various modalities, holds significant potential for enhancing AI agent capabilities, particularly in GUI environments. However, how to model the representation of trajectory-level data presents a significant challenge that has not been systematically addressed amid explosive trajectory data growth. In this work, we introduce Multimodal Trajectory Retrieval, bridging the gap between universal retrieval and agent-centric trajectory modeling. We construct the Unified Agent Trajectory Dataset (UATD) from annotated demonstrations and states across diverse real-world scenarios. Based on this, we present GAE-Bench, a benchmark containing a large number of trajectory-based retrieval pairs. In addition, we propose GAE-Retriever, a multimodal retrieval framework that adopts vision-language models and incorporates optimized contrastive learning through a token selection and the GradCache mechanism. Comprehensive evaluations across multiple datasets show that GAE-Retriever consistently outperforms strong baselines in retrieval recall, highlighting its effectiveness in advancing multimodal trajectory retrieval.

State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as a promising alternative to the popular transformer-based models and have been increasingly gaining attention. Compared to transformers, SSMs excel at tasks with sequential data or longer contexts, demonstrating comparable performances with significant efficiency gains. In this survey, we provide a coherent and systematic overview for SSMs, including their theoretical motivations, mathematical formulations, comparison with existing model classes, and various applications. We divide the SSM series into three main sections, providing a detailed introduction to the original SSM, the structured SSM represented by S4, and the selective SSM typified by Mamba. We put an emphasis on technicality, and highlight the various key techniques introduced to address the effectiveness and efficiency of SSMs. We hope this manuscript serves as an introduction for researchers to explore the theoretical foundations of SSMs.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes which describe dynamical systems evolving in discrete state spaces. These processes find wide application in the natural sciences and machine learning, but their inference is known to be far from trivial. In this work we introduce a methodology for zero-shot inference of Markov jump processes (MJPs), on bounded state spaces, from noisy and sparse observations, which consists of two components. First, a broad probability distribution over families of MJPs, as well as over possible observation times and noise mechanisms, with which we simulate a synthetic dataset of hidden MJPs and their noisy observation process. Second, a neural network model that processes subsets of the simulated observations, and that is trained to output the initial condition and rate matrix of the target MJP in a supervised way. We empirically demonstrate that one and the same (pretrained) model can infer, in a zero-shot fashion, hidden MJPs evolving in state spaces of different dimensionalities. Specifically, we infer MJPs which describe (i) discrete flashing ratchet systems, which are a type of Brownian motors, and the conformational dynamics in (ii) molecular simulations, (iii) experimental ion channel data and (iv) simple protein folding models. What is more, we show that our model performs on par with state-of-the-art models which are finetuned to the target datasets.

Selective state space models (SSM), such as Mamba, have gained prominence for their effectiveness in modeling sequential data. Despite their outstanding empirical performance, a comprehensive theoretical understanding of deep selective SSM remains elusive, hindering their further development and adoption for applications that need high fidelity. In this paper, we investigate the dynamical properties of tokens in a pre-trained Mamba model. In particular, we derive the dynamical system governing the continuous-time limit of the Mamba model and characterize the asymptotic behavior of its solutions. In the one-dimensional case, we prove that only one of the following two scenarios happens: either all tokens converge to zero, or all tokens diverge to infinity. We provide criteria based on model parameters to determine when each scenario occurs. For the convergent scenario, we empirically verify that this scenario negatively impacts the model's performance. For the divergent scenario, we prove that different tokens will diverge to infinity at different rates, thereby contributing unequally to the updates during model training. Based on these investigations, we propose two refinements for the model: excluding the convergent scenario and reordering tokens based on their importance scores, both aimed at improving practical performance. Our experimental results validate these refinements, offering insights into enhancing Mamba's effectiveness in real-world applications.

Trajectory prediction plays an important role in various applications, including autonomous driving, robotics, and scene understanding. Existing approaches mainly focus on developing compact neural networks to increase prediction precision on public datasets, typically employing a standardized input duration. However, a notable issue arises when these models are evaluated with varying observation lengths, leading to a significant performance drop, a phenomenon we term the Observation Length Shift. To address this issue, we introduce a general and effective framework, the FlexiLength Network (FLN), to enhance the robustness of existing trajectory prediction techniques against varying observation periods. Specifically, FLN integrates trajectory data with diverse observation lengths, incorporates FlexiLength Calibration (FLC) to acquire temporal invariant representations, and employs FlexiLength Adaptation (FLA) to further refine these representations for more accurate future trajectory predictions. Comprehensive experiments on multiple datasets, ie, ETH/UCY, nuScenes, and Argoverse 1, demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of our proposed FLN framework.

We consider the problem of predicting the future trajectory of scene agents from egocentric views obtained from a moving platform. This problem is important in a variety of domains, particularly for autonomous systems making reactive or strategic decisions in navigation. In an attempt to address this problem, we introduce TITAN (Trajectory Inference using Targeted Action priors Network), a new model that incorporates prior positions, actions, and context to forecast future trajectory of agents and future ego-motion. In the absence of an appropriate dataset for this task, we created the TITAN dataset that consists of 700 labeled video-clips (with odometry) captured from a moving vehicle on highly interactive urban traffic scenes in Tokyo. Our dataset includes 50 labels including vehicle states and actions, pedestrian age groups, and targeted pedestrian action attributes that are organized hierarchically corresponding to atomic, simple/complex-contextual, transportive, and communicative actions. To evaluate our model, we conducted extensive experiments on the TITAN dataset, revealing significant performance improvement against baselines and state-of-the-art algorithms. We also report promising results from our Agent Importance Mechanism (AIM), a module which provides insight into assessment of perceived risk by calculating the relative influence of each agent on the future ego-trajectory. The dataset is available at https://usa.honda-ri.com/titan

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are used to model environments where the full state cannot be perceived by an agent. As such the agent needs to reason taking into account the past observations and actions. However, simply remembering the full history is generally intractable due to the exponential growth in the history space. Maintaining a probability distribution that models the belief over what the true state is can be used as a sufficient statistic of the history, but its computation requires access to the model of the environment and is often intractable. While SOTA algorithms use Recurrent Neural Networks to compress the observation-action history aiming to learn a sufficient statistic, they lack guarantees of success and can lead to sub-optimal policies. To overcome this, we propose the Wasserstein Belief Updater, an RL algorithm that learns a latent model of the POMDP and an approximation of the belief update. Our approach comes with theoretical guarantees on the quality of our approximation ensuring that our outputted beliefs allow for learning the optimal value function.

Predicting the trajectories of road agents is essential for autonomous driving systems. The recent mainstream methods follow a static paradigm, which predicts the future trajectory by using a fixed duration of historical frames. These methods make the predictions independently even at adjacent time steps, which leads to potential instability and temporal inconsistency. As successive time steps have largely overlapping historical frames, their forecasting should have intrinsic correlation, such as overlapping predicted trajectories should be consistent, or be different but share the same motion goal depending on the road situation. Motivated by this, in this work, we introduce HPNet, a novel dynamic trajectory forecasting method. Aiming for stable and accurate trajectory forecasting, our method leverages not only historical frames including maps and agent states, but also historical predictions. Specifically, we newly design a Historical Prediction Attention module to automatically encode the dynamic relationship between successive predictions. Besides, it also extends the attention range beyond the currently visible window benefitting from the use of historical predictions. The proposed Historical Prediction Attention together with the Agent Attention and Mode Attention is further formulated as the Triple Factorized Attention module, serving as the core design of HPNet.Experiments on the Argoverse and INTERACTION datasets show that HPNet achieves state-of-the-art performance, and generates accurate and stable future trajectories. Our code are available at https://github.com/XiaolongTang23/HPNet.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have shown remarkable progress in embodied tasks recently, but most methods process visual observations independently at each timestep. This history-agnostic design treats robot manipulation as a Markov Decision Process, even though real-world robotic control is inherently partially observable and requires reasoning over past interactions. To address this mismatch, we reformulate VLA policy learning from a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process perspective and propose AVA-VLA, a framework that conditions action generation on a recurrent state that serves as a neural approximation to the agent's belief over task history. Built on this recurrent state, we introduce Active Visual Attention (AVA), which dynamically reweights visual tokens in the current observation to focus on regions most relevant given both the instruction and execution history. Extensive experiments show that AVA-VLA achieves state-of-the-art performance on standard robotic benchmarks, including LIBERO and CALVIN, and transfers effectively to real-world dual-arm manipulation tasks. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of temporally grounded active visual processing for improving VLA performance in robotic sequential decision-making. The project page is available at https://liauto-dsr.github.io/AVA-VLA-Page.

Reasoning about human motion is an important prerequisite to safe and socially-aware robotic navigation. As a result, multi-agent behavior prediction has become a core component of modern human-robot interactive systems, such as self-driving cars. While there exist many methods for trajectory forecasting, most do not enforce dynamic constraints and do not account for environmental information (e.g., maps). Towards this end, we present Trajectron++, a modular, graph-structured recurrent model that forecasts the trajectories of a general number of diverse agents while incorporating agent dynamics and heterogeneous data (e.g., semantic maps). Trajectron++ is designed to be tightly integrated with robotic planning and control frameworks; for example, it can produce predictions that are optionally conditioned on ego-agent motion plans. We demonstrate its performance on several challenging real-world trajectory forecasting datasets, outperforming a wide array of state-of-the-art deterministic and generative methods.

Efficient and accurate motion prediction is crucial for ensuring safety and informed decision-making in autonomous driving, particularly under dynamic real-world conditions that necessitate multi-modal forecasts. We introduce TrajFlow, a novel flow matching-based motion prediction framework that addresses the scalability and efficiency challenges of existing generative trajectory prediction methods. Unlike conventional generative approaches that employ i.i.d. sampling and require multiple inference passes to capture diverse outcomes, TrajFlow predicts multiple plausible future trajectories in a single pass, significantly reducing computational overhead while maintaining coherence across predictions. Moreover, we propose a ranking loss based on the Plackett-Luce distribution to improve uncertainty estimation of predicted trajectories. Additionally, we design a self-conditioning training technique that reuses the model's own predictions to construct noisy inputs during a second forward pass, thereby improving generalization and accelerating inference. Extensive experiments on the large-scale Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) demonstrate that TrajFlow achieves state-of-the-art performance across various key metrics, underscoring its effectiveness for safety-critical autonomous driving applications. The code and other details are available on the project website https://traj-flow.github.io/.

Given a dataset on actions and resulting long-term rewards, a direct estimation approach fits value functions that minimize prediction error on the training data. Temporal difference learning (TD) methods instead fit value functions by minimizing the degree of temporal inconsistency between estimates made at successive time-steps. Focusing on finite state Markov chains, we provide a crisp asymptotic theory of the statistical advantages of this approach. First, we show that an intuitive inverse trajectory pooling coefficient completely characterizes the percent reduction in mean-squared error of value estimates. Depending on problem structure, the reduction could be enormous or nonexistent. Next, we prove that there can be dramatic improvements in estimates of the difference in value-to-go for two states: TD's errors are bounded in terms of a novel measure - the problem's trajectory crossing time - which can be much smaller than the problem's time horizon.

Simulating realistic behaviors of traffic agents is pivotal for efficiently validating the safety of autonomous driving systems. Existing data-driven simulators primarily use an encoder-decoder architecture to encode the historical trajectories before decoding the future. However, the heterogeneity between encoders and decoders complicates the models, and the manual separation of historical and future trajectories leads to low data utilization. Given these limitations, we propose BehaviorGPT, a homogeneous and fully autoregressive Transformer designed to simulate the sequential behavior of multiple agents. Crucially, our approach discards the traditional separation between "history" and "future" by modeling each time step as the "current" one for motion generation, leading to a simpler, more parameter- and data-efficient agent simulator. We further introduce the Next-Patch Prediction Paradigm (NP3) to mitigate the negative effects of autoregressive modeling, in which models are trained to reason at the patch level of trajectories and capture long-range spatial-temporal interactions. Despite having merely 3M model parameters, BehaviorGPT won first place in the 2024 Waymo Open Sim Agents Challenge with a realism score of 0.7473 and a minADE score of 1.4147, demonstrating its exceptional performance in traffic agent simulation.

Linear time-invariant state space models (SSM) are a classical model from engineering and statistics, that have recently been shown to be very promising in machine learning through the Structured State Space sequence model (S4). A core component of S4 involves initializing the SSM state matrix to a particular matrix called a HiPPO matrix, which was empirically important for S4's ability to handle long sequences. However, the specific matrix that S4 uses was actually derived in previous work for a particular time-varying dynamical system, and the use of this matrix as a time-invariant SSM had no known mathematical interpretation. Consequently, the theoretical mechanism by which S4 models long-range dependencies actually remains unexplained. We derive a more general and intuitive formulation of the HiPPO framework, which provides a simple mathematical interpretation of S4 as a decomposition onto exponentially-warped Legendre polynomials, explaining its ability to capture long dependencies. Our generalization introduces a theoretically rich class of SSMs that also lets us derive more intuitive S4 variants for other bases such as the Fourier basis, and explains other aspects of training S4, such as how to initialize the important timescale parameter. These insights improve S4's performance to 86% on the Long Range Arena benchmark, with 96% on the most difficult Path-X task.

Stateful policies play an important role in reinforcement learning, such as handling partially observable environments, enhancing robustness, or imposing an inductive bias directly into the policy structure. The conventional method for training stateful policies is Backpropagation Through Time (BPTT), which comes with significant drawbacks, such as slow training due to sequential gradient propagation and the occurrence of vanishing or exploding gradients. The gradient is often truncated to address these issues, resulting in a biased policy update. We present a novel approach for training stateful policies by decomposing the latter into a stochastic internal state kernel and a stateless policy, jointly optimized by following the stateful policy gradient. We introduce different versions of the stateful policy gradient theorem, enabling us to easily instantiate stateful variants of popular reinforcement learning and imitation learning algorithms. Furthermore, we provide a theoretical analysis of our new gradient estimator and compare it with BPTT. We evaluate our approach on complex continuous control tasks, e.g., humanoid locomotion, and demonstrate that our gradient estimator scales effectively with task complexity while offering a faster and simpler alternative to BPTT.

In supervised learning, the question of data quality and curation has been over-shadowed in recent years by increasingly more powerful and expressive models that can ingest internet-scale data. However, in offline learning for robotics, we simply lack internet scale data, and so high quality datasets are a necessity. This is especially true in imitation learning (IL), a sample efficient paradigm for robot learning using expert demonstrations. Policies learned through IL suffer from state distribution shift at test time due to compounding errors in action prediction, which leads to unseen states that the policy cannot recover from. Instead of designing new algorithms to address distribution shift, an alternative perspective is to develop new ways of assessing and curating datasets. There is growing evidence that the same IL algorithms can have substantially different performance across different datasets. This calls for a formalism for defining metrics of "data quality" that can further be leveraged for data curation. In this work, we take the first step toward formalizing data quality for imitation learning through the lens of distribution shift: a high quality dataset encourages the policy to stay in distribution at test time. We propose two fundamental properties that shape the quality of a dataset: i) action divergence: the mismatch between the expert and learned policy at certain states; and ii) transition diversity: the noise present in the system for a given state and action. We investigate the combined effect of these two key properties in imitation learning theoretically, and we empirically analyze models trained on a variety of different data sources. We show that state diversity is not always beneficial, and we demonstrate how action divergence and transition diversity interact in practice.

The ability to accurately predict the trajectory of surrounding vehicles is a critical hurdle to overcome on the journey to fully autonomous vehicles. To address this challenge, we pioneer a novel behavior-aware trajectory prediction model (BAT) that incorporates insights and findings from traffic psychology, human behavior, and decision-making. Our model consists of behavior-aware, interaction-aware, priority-aware, and position-aware modules that perceive and understand the underlying interactions and account for uncertainty and variability in prediction, enabling higher-level learning and flexibility without rigid categorization of driving behavior. Importantly, this approach eliminates the need for manual labeling in the training process and addresses the challenges of non-continuous behavior labeling and the selection of appropriate time windows. We evaluate BAT's performance across the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM), Highway Drone (HighD), Roundabout Drone (RounD), and Macao Connected Autonomous Driving (MoCAD) datasets, showcasing its superiority over prevailing state-of-the-art (SOTA) benchmarks in terms of prediction accuracy and efficiency. Remarkably, even when trained on reduced portions of the training data (25%), our model outperforms most of the baselines, demonstrating its robustness and efficiency in predicting vehicle trajectories, and the potential to reduce the amount of data required to train autonomous vehicles, especially in corner cases. In conclusion, the behavior-aware model represents a significant advancement in the development of autonomous vehicles capable of predicting trajectories with the same level of proficiency as human drivers. The project page is available at https://github.com/Petrichor625/BATraj-Behavior-aware-Model.

This paper presents a Simple and effIcient Motion Prediction baseLine (SIMPL) for autonomous vehicles. Unlike conventional agent-centric methods with high accuracy but repetitive computations and scene-centric methods with compromised accuracy and generalizability, SIMPL delivers real-time, accurate motion predictions for all relevant traffic participants. To achieve improvements in both accuracy and inference speed, we propose a compact and efficient global feature fusion module that performs directed message passing in a symmetric manner, enabling the network to forecast future motion for all road users in a single feed-forward pass and mitigating accuracy loss caused by viewpoint shifting. Additionally, we investigate the continuous trajectory parameterization using Bernstein basis polynomials in trajectory decoding, allowing evaluations of states and their higher-order derivatives at any desired time point, which is valuable for downstream planning tasks. As a strong baseline, SIMPL exhibits highly competitive performance on Argoverse 1 & 2 motion forecasting benchmarks compared with other state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, its lightweight design and low inference latency make SIMPL highly extensible and promising for real-world onboard deployment. We open-source the code at https://github.com/HKUST-Aerial-Robotics/SIMPL.

Multi-modal trajectory forecasting methods commonly evaluate using single-agent metrics (marginal metrics), such as minimum Average Displacement Error (ADE) and Final Displacement Error (FDE), which fail to capture joint performance of multiple interacting agents. Only focusing on marginal metrics can lead to unnatural predictions, such as colliding trajectories or diverging trajectories for people who are clearly walking together as a group. Consequently, methods optimized for marginal metrics lead to overly-optimistic estimations of performance, which is detrimental to progress in trajectory forecasting research. In response to the limitations of marginal metrics, we present the first comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art (SOTA) trajectory forecasting methods with respect to multi-agent metrics (joint metrics): JADE, JFDE, and collision rate. We demonstrate the importance of joint metrics as opposed to marginal metrics with quantitative evidence and qualitative examples drawn from the ETH / UCY and Stanford Drone datasets. We introduce a new loss function incorporating joint metrics that, when applied to a SOTA trajectory forecasting method, achieves a 7% improvement in JADE / JFDE on the ETH / UCY datasets with respect to the previous SOTA. Our results also indicate that optimizing for joint metrics naturally leads to an improvement in interaction modeling, as evidenced by a 16% decrease in mean collision rate on the ETH / UCY datasets with respect to the previous SOTA.

Whether navigating a building, operating a robot, or playing a game, an agent that acts effectively in an environment must first learn an internal model of how that environment works. Partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a flexible modeling class for such internal world models, but learning them from observation-action trajectories alone is challenging and typically requires extensive environment interaction. We ask whether language-model priors can reduce costly interaction by leveraging prior knowledge, and introduce Pinductor (POMDP-inductor): an LLM proposes candidate POMDP models from a few observation-action trajectories and iteratively refines them to optimize a belief-based likelihood score. Despite using strictly less information, Pinductor matches the performance and sample efficiency of LLM-based POMDP learning methods that assume privileged access to the hidden state, while significantly surpassing the sample efficiency of tabular POMDP baselines. Further results show that performance scales with LLM capability and degrades gracefully as semantic information about the environment is withheld. Together, these results position language-model priors as a practical tool for sample-efficient world-model learning under partial observability, and a step toward generalist agents in real-world environments. Code is available at https://github.com/atomresearch/pinductor.

Tracking pixels in videos is typically studied as an optical flow estimation problem, where every pixel is described with a displacement vector that locates it in the next frame. Even though wider temporal context is freely available, prior efforts to take this into account have yielded only small gains over 2-frame methods. In this paper, we revisit Sand and Teller's "particle video" approach, and study pixel tracking as a long-range motion estimation problem, where every pixel is described with a trajectory that locates it in multiple future frames. We re-build this classic approach using components that drive the current state-of-the-art in flow and object tracking, such as dense cost maps, iterative optimization, and learned appearance updates. We train our models using long-range amodal point trajectories mined from existing optical flow data that we synthetically augment with multi-frame occlusions. We test our approach in trajectory estimation benchmarks and in keypoint label propagation tasks, and compare favorably against state-of-the-art optical flow and feature tracking methods.

We consider the problem of segmenting objects in videos based on their motion and no other forms of supervision. Prior work has often approached this problem by using the principle of common fate, namely the fact that the motion of points that belong to the same object is strongly correlated. However, most authors have only considered instantaneous motion from optical flow. In this work, we present a way to train a segmentation network using long-term point trajectories as a supervisory signal to complement optical flow. The key difficulty is that long-term motion, unlike instantaneous motion, is difficult to model -- any parametric approximation is unlikely to capture complex motion patterns over long periods of time. We instead draw inspiration from subspace clustering approaches, proposing a loss function that seeks to group the trajectories into low-rank matrices where the motion of object points can be approximately explained as a linear combination of other point tracks. Our method outperforms the prior art on motion-based segmentation, which shows the utility of long-term motion and the effectiveness of our formulation.