Daily Papers

Adaptive optimizers such as Adam and AdamW apply the same update rule regardless of whether training is in a chaotic early phase or near convergence. We introduce PsiLogic, an optimizer that augments Adam with a dynamic Active Cancellation Term gated by a dual exponential moving average (EMA) of scale-normalized gradient norms. The resulting chaos detector strengthens damping when gradient statistics are unstable and fades to zero as training stabilizes, providing an implicit warmup without a hand-tuned schedule. We evaluate PsiLogic against Adam, AdamW, and Lion using FairBench -- a reproducible benchmark protocol with per-optimizer learning-rate sweeps, identical initialization per seed, and Welch t-tests. On an NVIDIA H100 80GB reference run (4 arenas, 3 seeds, 2000 steps, bf16 AMP), PsiLogic achieves the best validation metric in three of four arenas: NLP perplexity 7.79 +/- 0.18 vs. 8.17 +/- 0.08 (AdamW, p = 0.049), ViT top-1 accuracy 0.244 +/- 0.006 vs. 0.223 +/- 0.002 (AdamW, p = 0.015), and ResNet top-1 accuracy 0.222 +/- 0.001 vs. 0.172 +/- 0.004 (Adam, p = 0.001). On diffusion, validation MSE is statistically tied with Adam/AdamW (p = 0.49). ResNet accuracy vs. AdamW is a numerical tie without significance at three seeds (p = 0.44). Peak GPU memory is comparable across optimizers; PsiLogic incurs 1.2--1.8x wall-clock overhead on transformer-heavy arenas (implementation-bound). We release an open-source PyTorch implementation, the full FairBench harness, and all raw CSV outputs to support independent verification.

This study evaluates Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents for Dhumbal, a culturally significant multiplayer card game with imperfect information, through a systematic comparison of rule-based, search-based, and learning-based strategies. We formalize Dhumbal's mechanics and implement diverse agents, including heuristic approaches (Aggressive, Conservative, Balanced, Opportunistic), search-based methods such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) and Information Set Monte Carlo Tree Search (ISMCTS), and reinforcement learning approaches including Deep Q-Network (DQN) and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), and a random baseline. Evaluation involves within-category tournaments followed by a cross-category championship. Performance is measured via win rate, economic outcome, Jhyap success, cards discarded per round, risk assessment, and decision efficiency. Statistical significance is assessed using Welch's t-test with Bonferroni correction, effect sizes via Cohen's d, and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Across 1024 simulated rounds, the rule-based Aggressive agent achieves the highest win rate (88.3%, 95% CI: [86.3, 90.3]), outperforming ISMCTS (9.0%) and PPO (1.5%) through effective exploitation of Jhyap declarations. The study contributes a reproducible AI framework, insights into heuristic efficacy under partial information, and open-source code, thereby advancing AI research and supporting digital preservation of cultural games.

Can humans tell whether a news article was written by a person or a large language model (LLM)? We investigate this question using JudgeGPT, a study platform that independently measures source attribution (human vs. machine) and authenticity judgment (legitimate vs. fake) on continuous scales. From 2,318 judgments collected from 1,054 participants across content generated by six LLMs, we report five findings: (1) participants cannot reliably distinguish machine-generated from human-written text (p > .05, Welch's t-test); (2) this inability holds across all tested models, including open-weight models with as few as 7B parameters; (3) self-reported domain expertise predicts judgment accuracy (r = .35, p < .001) whereas political orientation does not (r = -.10, n.s.); (4) clustering reveals distinct response strategies ("Skeptics" vs. "Believers"); and (5) accuracy degrades after approximately 30 sequential evaluations due to cognitive fatigue. The answer, in short, is no: humans cannot reliably tell. These results indicate that user-side detection is not a viable defense and motivate system-level countermeasures such as cryptographic content provenance.

We measure how well current large language models coordinate as multiple agents sharing a common resource, using the dining philosophers problem as a clean test bed. Across 630 episodes spanning seven models and three philosopher counts, four frontier closed-source systems reach mean reward 0.45 to 0.87 and Mistral-Small 24B reaches 0.83 to 0.99, while Qwen3-14B reaches 0.13 to 0.35. We then ask whether group relative policy optimization (GRPO) on rollouts from the task itself can close the gap and find that it cannot: a Welch's t-test on per-episode reward at five philosophers gives p = 0.66 and a Hedges' g of -0.11, with no statistically significant change at ten or fifteen philosophers either. Two further observations qualify the result. The training reward of both 8B and 14B runs peaked at step nine and then declined, so the default saved checkpoint at step 15 is strictly worse than several earlier ones. The four-term reward we use admits a degenerate maximum at zero actions, which DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B and Mistral-Small 24B at five philosophers both inhabit, with mean reward 1.0 and 0.83 respectively at zero meals. The bottleneck for an open-weight 14B model on multi-agent coordination is not training compute but training methodology: reward shaping that does not collapse to a no-action maximum, checkpoint discipline that does not depend on the final step, and curriculum across problem scales.

Adversarial prompt attacks can significantly alter the reliability of Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems by re-ranking them to produce incorrect outputs. In this paper, we present a novel method that applies Differential Evolution (DE) to optimize adversarial prompt suffixes for RAG-based question answering. Our approach is gradient-free, treating the RAG pipeline as a black box and evolving a population of candidate suffixes to maximize the retrieval rank of a targeted incorrect document to be closer to real world scenarios. We conducted experiments on the BEIR QA datasets to evaluate attack success at certain retrieval rank thresholds under multiple retrieving applications. Our results demonstrate that DE-based prompt optimization attains competitive (and in some cases higher) success rates compared to GGPP to dense retrievers and PRADA to sparse retrievers, while using only a small number of tokens (<=5 tokens) in the adversarial suffix. Furthermore, we introduce a readability-aware suffix construction strategy, validated by a statistically significant reduction in MLM negative log-likelihood with Welch's t-test. Through evaluations with a BERT-based adversarial suffix detector, we show that DE-generated suffixes evade detection, yielding near-chance detection accuracy.

Side-channel evaluators routinely inspect leakage tests while acquisition is still running, and extend or stop the campaign based on what they see. Fixed-horizon screening such as the Welch t-test with threshold |t|>4.5 gives no error guarantee for this monitored decision rule. We study anytime-valid leakage detection based on testing by betting: SKIT-type swap-pair e-processes whose false-alarm probability is controlled uniformly over time under an explicit conditional symmetry null. In matched comparisons that share the frozen witness, rows and payoff, first-crossing detection needed 1.68-2.00times the traces of a fixed-horizon randomization test at 80% detection on synthetic streams, and 1.68-2.38times on degraded recordings from an open ML-KEM electromagnetic dataset with the primary Ridge witness at α=0.05. With the same primary witness and level, on undegraded reference and pqm4 recordings the monitored procedure stopped early: its median stopping point was 62-72 and 146-316 evaluation traces, i.e. 2-8% of a conservative 4096-trace budget. Under exact designed nulls on the recorded backgrounds, repeated-look |t|>4.5 screening over all 13000-20000 samples raised a false alarm in 2.7-12.9% of replicates, against 0.0-4.7% for terminal-only screening and no rejection by a sample-wise e-Bonferroni process, which in a prespecified follow-up detected natural-label associations in 4 of 4 backgrounds after 840-3288 traces. All recordings come from one device, and natural-label results are descriptive; we state the assumptions each claim requires.

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) seeks to tackle potential distribution shifts between training and testing data by adapting a given model w.r.t. any testing sample. This task is particularly important for deep models when the test environment changes frequently. Although some recent attempts have been made to handle this task, we still face two practical challenges: 1) existing methods have to perform backward computation for each test sample, resulting in unbearable prediction cost to many applications; 2) while existing TTA solutions can significantly improve the test performance on out-of-distribution data, they often suffer from severe performance degradation on in-distribution data after TTA (known as catastrophic forgetting). In this paper, we point out that not all the test samples contribute equally to model adaptation, and high-entropy ones may lead to noisy gradients that could disrupt the model. Motivated by this, we propose an active sample selection criterion to identify reliable and non-redundant samples, on which the model is updated to minimize the entropy loss for test-time adaptation. Furthermore, to alleviate the forgetting issue, we introduce a Fisher regularizer to constrain important model parameters from drastic changes, where the Fisher importance is estimated from test samples with generated pseudo labels. Extensive experiments on CIFAR-10-C, ImageNet-C, and ImageNet-R verify the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Model-based reconstruction employing the time separation technique (TST) was found to improve dynamic perfusion imaging of the liver using C-arm cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). To apply TST using prior knowledge extracted from CT perfusion data, the liver should be accurately segmented from the CT scans. Reconstructions of primary and model-based CBCT data need to be segmented for proper visualisation and interpretation of perfusion maps. This research proposes Turbolift learning, which trains a modified version of the multi-scale Attention UNet on different liver segmentation tasks serially, following the order of the trainings CT, CBCT, CBCT TST - making the previous trainings act as pre-training stages for the subsequent ones - addressing the problem of limited number of datasets for training. For the final task of liver segmentation from CBCT TST, the proposed method achieved an overall Dice scores of 0.874pm0.031 and 0.905pm0.007 in 6-fold and 4-fold cross-validation experiments, respectively - securing statistically significant improvements over the model, which was trained only for that task. Experiments revealed that Turbolift not only improves the overall performance of the model but also makes it robust against artefacts originating from the embolisation materials and truncation artefacts. Additionally, in-depth analyses confirmed the order of the segmentation tasks. This paper shows the potential of segmenting the liver from CT, CBCT, and CBCT TST, learning from the available limited training data, which can possibly be used in the future for the visualisation and evaluation of the perfusion maps for the treatment evaluation of liver diseases.

Vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly augmented with continuous or latent non-textual tokens intended to support "visual thinking." Despite improved task accuracy, this alone does not show that models actually use these tokens for reasoning -- gains may arise from confounds such as added context length, special-token anchoring, or training-time regularization. We formalize a diagnostic principle, Ablate-to-Validate, for testing whether latent-token content is genuinely utilized, and instantiate it as the Token Replacement Test (TRT), a standardized suite of content-replacement ablations. TRT holds the prompt, image, token budget, and decoding fixed while replacing intermediate tokens with zero, random, first-repeat, or oracle alternatives, isolating whether performance depends on token content or merely on token presence. As a controlled testbed, we study relative depth reasoning with LLaVA-13B and Qwen2.5-VL-3B, training models to predict and consume continuous or discrete depth spans across multiple frozen encoders (SigLIP2, CLIP, DINOv2) and token budgets. We additionally apply TRT to three off-the-shelf visual-thinking systems (Mirage, Mull-Tokens, CoVT) on BLINK, VSP, and CV-Bench. Across all settings, accuracy gains are a misleading proxy for latent-token reasoning: VLMs retain most improvement even when token content is corrupted or replaced, revealing a persistent gap between having a latent channel and using it as an information bottleneck. We recommend TRT as a standard diagnostic alongside accuracy for any method introducing continuous thought tokens.

High-dimensional mean testing is challenging under strong dependence and heavy tails, since classical Hotelling statistics are ill posed and regularized versions based on sample moments remain sensitive to outliers. This paper develops a robust regularized Hotelling framework for one-sample mean inference under elliptical distributions. The proposed HRST statistic combines a Hettmansperger-Randles spatial location estimator with the inverse of a trace-normalized shrinkage Tyler scatter matrix, and calibrates the resulting quadratic form through ridge-resolvent random-matrix theory rather than sparse covariance or precision-matrix assumptions. In the regime p/nto yin(0,infty), allowing a vanishing lower bulk edge and finite-rank diverging spikes, we establish feasible asymptotic normality for each shrinkage level, derive local-alternative distributions with explicit noncentrality parameters, and prove joint Gaussian limits over finite shrinkage grids. These results justify an adaptive Cauchy combination test across shrinkage levels. Simulations and a paired tumor-normal gene-expression study show that HRST maintains size and improves robustness under heavy-tailed distributions while retaining power under strong correlation.

Perfusion imaging is a valuable tool for diagnosing and treatment planning for liver tumours. The time separation technique (TST) has been successfully used for modelling C-arm cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) perfusion data. The reconstruction can be accompanied by the segmentation of the liver - for better visualisation and for generating comprehensive perfusion maps. Recently introduced Turbolift learning has been seen to perform well while working with TST reconstructions, but has not been explored for the time-resolved volumes (TRV) estimated out of TST reconstructions. The segmentation of the TRVs can be useful for tracking the movement of the liver over time. This research explores this possibility by training the multi-scale attention UNet of Turbolift learning at its third stage on the TRVs and shows the robustness of Turbolift learning since it can even work efficiently with the TRVs, resulting in a Dice score of 0.864pm0.004.

Null Hypothesis Significance Testing is the de facto tool for assessing effectiveness differences between Information Retrieval systems. Researchers use statistical tests to check whether those differences will generalise to online settings or are just due to the samples observed in the laboratory. Much work has been devoted to studying which test is the most reliable when comparing a pair of systems, but most of the IR real-world experiments involve more than two. In the multiple comparisons scenario, testing several systems simultaneously may inflate the errors committed by the tests. In this paper, we use a new approach to assess the reliability of multiple comparison procedures using simulated and real TREC data. Experiments show that Wilcoxon plus the Benjamini-Hochberg correction yields Type I error rates according to the significance level for typical sample sizes while being the best test in terms of statistical power.

This study investigates GPT-4's assessment of its performance in healthcare applications. A simple prompting technique was used to prompt the LLM with questions taken from the United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) questionnaire and it was tasked to evaluate its confidence score before posing the question and after asking the question. The questionnaire was categorized into two groups-questions with feedback (WF) and questions with no feedback(NF) post-question. The model was asked to provide absolute and relative confidence scores before and after each question. The experimental findings were analyzed using statistical tools to study the variability of confidence in WF and NF groups. Additionally, a sequential analysis was conducted to observe the performance variation for the WF and NF groups. Results indicate that feedback influences relative confidence but doesn't consistently increase or decrease it. Understanding the performance of LLM is paramount in exploring its utility in sensitive areas like healthcare. This study contributes to the ongoing discourse on the reliability of AI, particularly of LLMs like GPT-4, within healthcare, offering insights into how feedback mechanisms might be optimized to enhance AI-assisted medical education and decision support.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

This is the 1st part of the dissertation for my master degree and compares the power consumption using the default floating point (32bit) and Nvidia mixed precision (16bit and 32bit) while training a classification ML model. A custom PC with specific hardware was built to perform the experiments, and different ML hyper-parameters, such as batch size, neurons, and epochs, were chosen to build Deep Neural Networks (DNN). Additionally, various software was used during the experiments to collect the power consumption data in Watts from the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), Central Processing Unit (CPU), Random Access Memory (RAM) and manually from a wattmeter connected to the wall. A benchmarking test with default hyper parameter values for the DNN was used as a reference, while the experiments used a combination of different settings. The results were recorded in Excel, and descriptive statistics were chosen to calculate the mean between the groups and compare them using graphs and tables. The outcome was positive when using mixed precision combined with specific hyper-parameters. Compared to the benchmarking, the optimisation for the classification reduced the power consumption between 7 and 11 Watts. Similarly, the carbon footprint is reduced because the calculation uses the same power consumption data. Still, a consideration is required when configuring hyper-parameters because it can negatively affect hardware performance. However, this research required inferential statistics, specifically ANOVA and T-test, to compare the relationship between the means. Furthermore, tests indicated no statistical significance of the relationship between the benchmarking and experiments. However, a more extensive implementation with a cluster of GPUs can increase the sample size significantly, as it is an essential factor and can change the outcome of the statistical analysis.

Developing an educational test can be expensive and time-consuming, as each item must be written by experts and then evaluated by collecting hundreds of student responses. Moreover, many tests require multiple distinct sets of questions administered throughout the school year to closely monitor students' progress, known as parallel tests. In this study, we focus on tests of silent sentence reading efficiency, used to assess students' reading ability over time. To generate high-quality parallel tests, we propose to fine-tune large language models (LLMs) to simulate how previous students would have responded to unseen items. With these simulated responses, we can estimate each item's difficulty and ambiguity. We first use GPT-4 to generate new test items following a list of expert-developed rules and then apply a fine-tuned LLM to filter the items based on criteria from psychological measurements. We also propose an optimal-transport-inspired technique for generating parallel tests and show the generated tests closely correspond to the original test's difficulty and reliability based on crowdworker responses. Our evaluation of a generated test with 234 students from grades 2 to 8 produces test scores highly correlated (r=0.93) to those of a standard test form written by human experts and evaluated across thousands of K-12 students.

Test-time training (TTT) adapts language models through gradient-based updates at inference. But is adaptation the right strategy? We study compute-optimal test-time strategies for verifiable execution-grounded (VEG) tasks, domains like GPU kernel optimization where a deterministic evaluator provides dense, continuous reward signals. Using KernelBench as our testbed and a 120B-parameter model (GPT-OSS-120B with LoRA adaptation), we find that search outperforms minimal adaptation (1-5 gradient steps): Best-of-N sampling achieves 90% task success (18/20 tasks) at K=64 across the full KernelBench L1 eval set while TTT's best checkpoint reaches only 30.6% (3-seed mean), with TTT's "equivalent K" falling below 1, worse than single-sample inference. The failure mode is over-sharpening: gradient updates collapse diversity toward mediocre solutions rather than discovering optimal ones. Our main contribution is surprisal-guided selection: selecting the highest-surprisal (lowest-confidence) correct sample yields 80% success vs. 50% for most-confident selection, a 30% improvement. Extending to surprisal-guided-top3 matches oracle performance at 100%. This zero-cost strategy, validated through length-controlled analysis, recovers oracle performance. For dense-reward VEG tasks, compute should be allocated to sample diversity and intelligent selection rather than gradient adaptation. The surprisal-guided selection principle may generalize to other execution-grounded domains where optimal solutions occupy the distribution tail.

This paper presents the observation of four-top-quark (tttt) production in proton-proton collisions at the LHC. The analysis is performed using an integrated luminosity of 140 fb^{-1} at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected using the ATLAS detector. Events containing two leptons with the same electric charge or at least three leptons (electrons or muons) are selected. Event kinematics are used to separate signal from background through a multivariate discriminant, and dedicated control regions are used to constrain the dominant backgrounds. The observed (expected) significance of the measured tttt signal with respect to the standard model (SM) background-only hypothesis is 6.1 (4.3) standard deviations. The tttt production cross section is measured to be 22.5^{+6.6}_{-5.5} fb, consistent with the SM prediction of 12.0 pm 2.4 fb within 1.8 standard deviations. Data are also used to set limits on the three-top-quark production cross section, being an irreducible background not measured previously, and to constrain the top-Higgs Yukawa coupling and effective field theory operator coefficients that affect tttt production.

Transcranial focused ultrasound (tFUS) is an emerging modality for non-invasive brain stimulation and therapeutic intervention, offering millimeter-scale spatial precision and the ability to target deep brain structures. However, the heterogeneous and anisotropic nature of the human skull introduces significant distortions to the propagating ultrasound wavefront, which require time-consuming patient-specific planning and corrections using numerical solvers for accurate targeting. To enable data-driven approaches in this domain, we introduce TFUScapes, the first large-scale, high-resolution dataset of tFUS simulations through anatomically realistic human skulls derived from T1-weighted MRI images. We have developed a scalable simulation engine pipeline using the k-Wave pseudo-spectral solver, where each simulation returns a steady-state pressure field generated by a focused ultrasound transducer placed at realistic scalp locations. In addition to the dataset, we present DeepTFUS, a deep learning model that estimates normalized pressure fields directly from input 3D CT volumes and transducer position. The model extends a U-Net backbone with transducer-aware conditioning, incorporating Fourier-encoded position embeddings and MLP layers to create global transducer embeddings. These embeddings are fused with U-Net encoder features via feature-wise modulation, dynamic convolutions, and cross-attention mechanisms. The model is trained using a combination of spatially weighted and gradient-sensitive loss functions, enabling it to approximate high-fidelity wavefields. The TFUScapes dataset is publicly released to accelerate research at the intersection of computational acoustics, neurotechnology, and deep learning. The project page is available at https://github.com/CAMMA-public/TFUScapes.

Background: The positive predictive value (PPV) of large language model (LLM)-based proofreading for radiology reports is limited due to the low error prevalence. Purpose: To assess whether a three-pass LLM framework enhances PPV and reduces operational costs compared with baseline approaches. Materials and Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on 1,000 consecutive radiology reports (250 each: radiography, ultrasonography, CT, MRI) from the MIMIC-III database. Two external datasets (CheXpert and Open-i) were validation sets. Three LLM frameworks were tested: (1) single-prompt detector; (2) extractor plus detector; and (3) extractor, detector, and false-positive verifier. Precision was measured by PPV and absolute true positive rate (aTPR). Efficiency was calculated from model inference charges and reviewer remuneration. Statistical significance was tested using cluster bootstrap, exact McNemar tests, and Holm-Bonferroni correction. Results: Framework PPV increased from 0.063 (95% CI, 0.036-0.101, Framework 1) to 0.079 (0.049-0.118, Framework 2), and significantly to 0.159 (0.090-0.252, Framework 3; P<.001 vs. baselines). aTPR remained stable (0.012-0.014; P>=.84). Operational costs per 1,000 reports dropped to USD 5.58 (Framework 3) from USD 9.72 (Framework 1) and USD 6.85 (Framework 2), reflecting reductions of 42.6% and 18.5%, respectively. Human-reviewed reports decreased from 192 to 88. External validation supported Framework 3's superior PPV (CheXpert 0.133, Open-i 0.105) and stable aTPR (0.007). Conclusion: A three-pass LLM framework significantly enhanced PPV and reduced operational costs, maintaining detection performance, providing an effective strategy for AI-assisted radiology report quality assurance.

Hypertension, defined as blood pressure (BP) that is above normal, holds paramount significance in the realm of public health, as it serves as a critical precursor to various cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and significantly contributes to elevated mortality rates worldwide. However, many existing BP measurement technologies and standards might be biased because they do not consider clinical outcomes, comorbidities, or demographic factors, making them inconclusive for diagnostic purposes. There is limited data-driven research focused on studying the variance in BP measurements across these variables. In this work, we employed GPT-35-turbo, a large language model (LLM), to automatically extract the mean and standard deviation values of BP for both males and females from a dataset comprising 25 million abstracts sourced from PubMed. 993 article abstracts met our predefined inclusion criteria (i.e., presence of references to blood pressure, units of blood pressure such as mmHg, and mention of biological sex). Based on the automatically-extracted information from these articles, we conducted an analysis of the variations of BP values across biological sex. Our results showed the viability of utilizing LLMs to study the BP variations across different demographic factors.

How many experimental studies would have come to different conclusions had they been run on larger samples? I show how to estimate the expected number of statistically significant results that a set of experiments would have reported had their sample sizes all been counterfactually increased. The proposed deconvolution estimator is asymptotically normal and adjusts for publication bias. Unlike related methods, this approach requires no assumptions of any kind about the distribution of true intervention treatment effects and allows for point masses. Simulations find good coverage even when the t-score is only approximately normal. An application to randomized trials (RCTs) published in economics journals finds that doubling every sample would increase the power of t-tests by 7.2 percentage points on average. This effect is smaller than for non-RCTs and comparable to systematic replications in laboratory psychology where previous studies enabled more accurate power calculations. This suggests that RCTs are on average relatively insensitive to sample size increases. Research funders who wish to raise power should generally consider sponsoring better-measured and higher quality experiments -- rather than only larger ones.

Measuring the creativity of large language models (LLMs) is essential for designing methods that can improve creativity and for enhancing our scientific understanding of this ability. To accomplish this, it has become common in recent years to administer tests of human creativity to LLMs. Although these tests provide a convenient and fully automated way to score "creativity," their validity as measures of machine creativity has not been established, and these tests already have limited validity as predictors of human creativity. To address this problem, we conduct the first large-scale, systematic study assessing the effectiveness of human creativity tests for predicting the creative achievement of LLMs across three target constructs: creative writing, divergent thinking, and scientific ideation. We find that the Divergent Association Task (DAT) and the Conditional DAT are the best predictors of creative writing and divergent thinking, respectively, but that test effectiveness varies significantly by construct, and no single test predicts all constructs well. Moreover, contrary to popular belief, no existing test reliably predicts scientific ideation ability. Motivated by this problem, we introduce the Divergent Remote Association Test (DRAT), a vocabulary-space test that assesses both convergent and divergent thinking in a single instrument. The DRAT is the first and only creativity test for LLMs that is a significant predictor of scientific ideation ability, demonstrating robustness across major design choices. Furthermore, the performance gain of the DRAT is not recoverable from any linear combination of the Divergent Association Task and the Remote Associates Test, indicating that assessing divergent and convergent thinking in the same test is essential to reliably predicting scientific ideation ability.

Purpose: To evaluate the performance of an automated deep learning method in detecting ascites and subsequently quantifying its volume in patients with liver cirrhosis and ovarian cancer. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study included contrast-enhanced and non-contrast abdominal-pelvic CT scans of patients with cirrhotic ascites and patients with ovarian cancer from two institutions, National Institutes of Health (NIH) and University of Wisconsin (UofW). The model, trained on The Cancer Genome Atlas Ovarian Cancer dataset (mean age, 60 years +/- 11 [s.d.]; 143 female), was tested on two internal (NIH-LC and NIH-OV) and one external dataset (UofW-LC). Its performance was measured by the Dice coefficient, standard deviations, and 95% confidence intervals, focusing on ascites volume in the peritoneal cavity. Results: On NIH-LC (25 patients; mean age, 59 years +/- 14 [s.d.]; 14 male) and NIH-OV (166 patients; mean age, 65 years +/- 9 [s.d.]; all female), the model achieved Dice scores of 0.855 +/- 0.061 (CI: 0.831-0.878) and 0.826 +/- 0.153 (CI: 0.764-0.887), with median volume estimation errors of 19.6% (IQR: 13.2-29.0) and 5.3% (IQR: 2.4-9.7) respectively. On UofW-LC (124 patients; mean age, 46 years +/- 12 [s.d.]; 73 female), the model had a Dice score of 0.830 +/- 0.107 (CI: 0.798-0.863) and median volume estimation error of 9.7% (IQR: 4.5-15.1). The model showed strong agreement with expert assessments, with r^2 values of 0.79, 0.98, and 0.97 across the test sets. Conclusion: The proposed deep learning method performed well in segmenting and quantifying the volume of ascites in concordance with expert radiologist assessments.

Researchers use Twitter and sentiment analysis to predict Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk. We developed a new dictionary of CVD-related keywords by analyzing emotions expressed in tweets. Tweets from eighteen US states, including the Appalachian region, were collected. Using the VADER model for sentiment analysis, users were classified as potentially at CVD risk. Machine Learning (ML) models were employed to classify individuals' CVD risk and applied to a CDC dataset with demographic information to make the comparison. Performance evaluation metrics such as Test Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1 score, Mathew's Correlation Coefficient (MCC), and Cohen's Kappa (CK) score were considered. Results demonstrated that analyzing tweets' emotions surpassed the predictive power of demographic data alone, enabling the identification of individuals at potential risk of developing CVD. This research highlights the potential of Natural Language Processing (NLP) and ML techniques in using tweets to identify individuals with CVD risks, providing an alternative approach to traditional demographic information for public health monitoring.

The validity screen (Cacioli, 2026d, 2026e) classifies LLM confidence signals as Valid, Indeterminate, or Invalid. We test whether these classifications predict selective prediction performance. Twenty frontier LLMs from seven families were evaluated on 524 items across six cognitive tracks. Valid models show mean Type 2 AUROC = .624 (SD = .048). Invalid models show mean AUROC = .357 (SD = .231). Cohen's d = 2.81, p = .002. The tiers order monotonically: Invalid (.357) < Indeterminate (.554) < Valid (.624). Split-half cross-validation yields median d = 1.77, P(d > 0) = 1.0 across 1,000 splits. The three-tier classification accounts for 47% of the variance in AUROC. DeepSeek-R1 drops from 85.3% accuracy at full coverage to 11.3% at 10% coverage. The screen predicts the criterion. For selective prediction, the screen matters.

Independence testing is a fundamental and classical statistical problem that has been extensively studied in the batch setting when one fixes the sample size before collecting data. However, practitioners often prefer procedures that adapt to the complexity of a problem at hand instead of setting sample size in advance. Ideally, such procedures should (a) allow stopping earlier on easy tasks (and later on harder tasks), hence making better use of available resources, and (b) continuously monitor the data and efficiently incorporate statistical evidence after collecting new data, while controlling the false alarm rate. It is well known that classical batch tests are not tailored for streaming data settings: valid inference after data peeking requires correcting for multiple testing but such corrections generally result in low power. Following the principle of testing by betting, we design sequential kernelized independence tests (SKITs) that overcome such shortcomings. We exemplify our broad framework using bets inspired by kernelized dependence measures, e.g, the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion. Our test is valid under non-i.i.d. time-varying settings, for which there exist no batch tests. We demonstrate the power of our approaches on both simulated and real data.

Electroencephalography (EEG) foundation models have shown strong potential for learning generalizable representations from large-scale neural data, yet their clinical deployment is hindered by distribution shifts across clinical settings, devices, and populations. Test-time adaptation (TTA) offers a promising solution by enabling models to adapt to unlabeled target data during inference without access to source data, a valuable property in healthcare settings constrained by privacy regulations and limited labeled data. However, its effectiveness for EEG remains largely underexplored. In this work, we introduce NeuroAdapt-Bench, a systematic benchmark for evaluating test-time adaptation methods on EEG foundation models under realistic distribution shifts. We evaluate representative TTA approaches from other domains across multiple pretrained foundation models, diverse downstream tasks, and heterogeneous datasets spanning in-distribution, out-of-distribution, and extreme modality shifts (e.g., Ear-EEG). Our results show that standard TTA methods yield inconsistent gains and often degrade performance, with gradient-based approaches particularly prone to heavy degradation. In contrast, optimization-free methods demonstrate greater stability and more reliable improvements. These findings highlight the limitations of existing TTA techniques in EEG, provide guidance for future development, and underscore the need for domain-specific adaptation strategies.

To improve patient survival and treatment outcomes, early diagnosis of brain tumors is an essential task. It is a difficult task to evaluate the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) images manually. Thus, there is a need for digital methods for tumor diagnosis with better accuracy. However, it is still a very challenging task in assessing their shape, volume, boundaries, tumor detection, size, segmentation, and classification. In this proposed work, we propose a hybrid ensemble method using Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbour, and Decision Tree (DT) (KNN-RF-DT) based on Majority Voting Method. It aims to calculate the area of the tumor region and classify brain tumors as benign and malignant. In the beginning, segmentation is done by using Otsu's Threshold method. Feature Extraction is done by using Stationary Wavelet Transform (SWT), Principle Component Analysis (PCA), and Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM), which gives thirteen features for classification. The classification is done by hybrid ensemble classifier (KNN-RF-DT) based on the Majority Voting method. Overall it aimed at improving the performance by traditional classifiers instead of going to deep learning. Traditional classifiers have an advantage over deep learning algorithms because they require small datasets for training and have low computational time complexity, low cost to the users, and can be easily adopted by less skilled people. Overall, our proposed method is tested upon dataset of 2556 images, which are used in 85:15 for training and testing respectively and gives good accuracy of 97.305%.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) methods, which generally rely on the model's predictions (e.g., entropy minimization) to adapt the source pretrained model to the unlabeled target domain, suffer from noisy signals originating from 1) incorrect or 2) open-set predictions. Long-term stable adaptation is hampered by such noisy signals, so training models without such error accumulation is crucial for practical TTA. To address these issues, including open-set TTA, we propose a simple yet effective sample selection method inspired by the following crucial empirical finding. While entropy minimization compels the model to increase the probability of its predicted label (i.e., confidence values), we found that noisy samples rather show decreased confidence values. To be more specific, entropy minimization attempts to raise the confidence values of an individual sample's prediction, but individual confidence values may rise or fall due to the influence of signals from numerous other predictions (i.e., wisdom of crowds). Due to this fact, noisy signals misaligned with such 'wisdom of crowds', generally found in the correct signals, fail to raise the individual confidence values of wrong samples, despite attempts to increase them. Based on such findings, we filter out the samples whose confidence values are lower in the adapted model than in the original model, as they are likely to be noisy. Our method is widely applicable to existing TTA methods and improves their long-term adaptation performance in both image classification (e.g., 49.4% reduced error rates with TENT) and semantic segmentation (e.g., 11.7% gain in mIoU with TENT).

Diagnosing epilepsy is challenging when routine EEGs lack interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs). Intermittent photic stimulation (IPS) and hyperventilation (HV) can increase diagnostic yield, but their interpretation is subjective. We propose a reproducible pipeline that classifies EEG recordings acquired during stimulation procedures, using machine-learning features spanning temporal, spectral, wavelet, and connectivity domains, and a stacked ensemble to combine complementary feature sets. Performance is evaluated with leave-one-subject-out (LOSO) cross-validation on the TUH Epilepsy Corpus and a clinical Erasmus MC (EMC) cohort, including IED-free analyses on TUH. On TUH, ensembles achieve up to 97.8\% AUC / 93.1\% BAC on IED-free resting-state EEG and 94.1\% AUC / 86.8\% BAC on IED-free IPS. On EMC, IPS provides the strongest discrimination (79.4\% AUC / 73.9\% BAC), while HV performance benefits from stratifying subjects by responsiveness. These results indicate that stimulation-evoked activity, particularly IPS, contains meaningful discriminative information for IED-free epilepsy classification and that multi-domain ensembling improves robustness.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) seeks to tackle potential distribution shifts between training and test data by adapting a given model w.r.t. any test sample. Although recent TTA has shown promising performance, we still face two key challenges: 1) prior methods perform backpropagation for each test sample, resulting in unbearable optimization costs to many applications; 2) while existing TTA can significantly improve the test performance on out-of-distribution data, they often suffer from severe performance degradation on in-distribution data after TTA (known as forgetting). To this end, we have proposed an Efficient Anti-Forgetting Test-Time Adaptation (EATA) method which develops an active sample selection criterion to identify reliable and non-redundant samples for test-time entropy minimization. To alleviate forgetting, EATA introduces a Fisher regularizer estimated from test samples to constrain important model parameters from drastic changes. However, in EATA, the adopted entropy loss consistently assigns higher confidence to predictions even for samples that are underlying uncertain, leading to overconfident predictions. To tackle this, we further propose EATA with Calibration (EATA-C) to separately exploit the reducible model uncertainty and the inherent data uncertainty for calibrated TTA. Specifically, we measure the model uncertainty by the divergence between predictions from the full network and its sub-networks, on which we propose a divergence loss to encourage consistent predictions instead of overconfident ones. To further recalibrate prediction confidence, we utilize the disagreement among predicted labels as an indicator of the data uncertainty, and then devise a min-max entropy regularizer to selectively increase and decrease prediction confidence for different samples. Experiments on image classification and semantic segmentation verify the effectiveness of our methods.

Testing equality of two high-dimensional covariance matrices is challenging when many entries differ only slightly. Dependence among sample covariance entries can also affect the finite-sample size and power of tests that aggregate their differences. We propose a studentized ell_2-type statistic that averages squared, marginally standardized differences between corresponding entries of the two sample covariance matrices. Before constructing the statistic, we apply the same nonsingular linear transformation to both samples. In the transformed coordinates, the covariance-equality hypothesis is unchanged, whereas the standardized differences and correlations among their estimators generally change. The transformation can therefore incorporate structural or scientific information without reducing dimension. We approximate the null distribution using a Gaussian multiplier bootstrap that uses coordinatewise studentization and avoids forming or inverting the full covariance matrix of the vectorized sample covariance entries. For deterministic transformations, we derive nonasymptotic Gaussian and bootstrap approximation bounds and establish asymptotic size validity and power consistency. We also show that replacing a population transformation by a same-sample estimator leaves the statistic and bootstrap critical value asymptotically unchanged in relative terms under an operator-norm convergence condition. Simulations show that suitable transformations improve size accuracy and power under weak dependence. An analysis of breast cancer gene-expression data illustrates the method.

We propose a simple multiple outlier identification method for parametric location-scale and shape-scale models when the number of possible outliers is not specified. The method is based on a result giving asymptotic properties of extreme z-scores. Robust estimators of model parameters are used defining z-scores. An extensive simulation study was done for comparing of the proposed method with existing methods. For the normal family, the method is compared with the well known Davies-Gather, Rosner's, Hawking's and Bolshev's multiple outlier identification methods. The choice of an upper limit for the number of possible outliers in case of Rosner's test application is discussed. For other families, the proposed method is compared with a method generalizing Gather-Davies method. In most situations, the new method has the highest outlier identification power in terms of masking and swamping values. We also created R package outliersTests for proposed test.

Due to privacy restrictions, there's a shortage of publicly available speech recognition datasets in the medical domain. In this work, we present VietMed - a Vietnamese speech recognition dataset in the medical domain comprising 16h of labeled medical speech, 1000h of unlabeled medical speech and 1200h of unlabeled general-domain speech. To our best knowledge, VietMed is by far the world's largest public medical speech recognition dataset in 7 aspects: total duration, number of speakers, diseases, recording conditions, speaker roles, unique medical terms and accents. VietMed is also by far the largest public Vietnamese speech dataset in terms of total duration. Additionally, we are the first to present a medical ASR dataset covering all ICD-10 disease groups and all accents within a country. Moreover, we release the first public large-scale pre-trained models for Vietnamese ASR, w2v2-Viet and XLSR-53-Viet, along with the first public large-scale fine-tuned models for medical ASR. Even without any medical data in unsupervised pre-training, our best pre-trained model XLSR-53-Viet generalizes very well to the medical domain by outperforming state-of-the-art XLSR-53, from 51.8% to 29.6% WER on test set (a relative reduction of more than 40%). All code, data and models are made publicly available here: https://github.com/leduckhai/MultiMed.

Recent test-time training (TTT) frameworks have enabled open-weight large language models (LLMs) to outperform inference-only frameworks powered by frontier models on scientific discovery tasks. However, TTT introduces additional computational cost for online weight updates during the discovery process, making computational efficiency an important consideration when scaling to larger models. This motivates us to explore an efficient test-time adaptation method for scientific discovery. We introduce Test-Time Memory Evolution (TTME), a plug-and-play test-time adaptation method, as an alternative to TTT. TTME continually updates the external memory by distilling the experience to guide subsequent discovery without updating model weights. To have a clean comparison, we evaluate TTME and TTT under the same discovery framework, replacing only the test-time adaptation method. Our evaluation shows that TTME outperforms TTT on all five mathematical tasks, while reducing computational cost by 82.8-84.6% in FLOPs and 47.7-58.4% in runtime. These results establish TTME as an effective and computationally efficient alternative to TTT in the evaluated discovery settings.

Background and Objective: Clinicians expect recurrence risk to climb with cancer severity. In a UK multicentre trial, an unconstrained XGBoost model learnt that higher tumour stage and carcinoma in situ predicted lower recurrence risk, and discrimination, calibration, and SHAP were all blind to it. We developed a counterfactual testing framework to detect this inversion and a monotonic-constraint framework to remove it without hurting performance. Methods: BOXIT enrolled 472 patients with protocol-mandated cystoscopy across 51 UK sites (2007-2012); 435 had at least two years' follow-up (153 recurrences, 35.2%). We developed a counterfactual direction test and a monotonic-constraint correction, with constraint directions drawn from the EORTC and EAU risk systems, and evaluated both against unconstrained XGBoost and logistic regression on 18 predictors (seven directed) over 50 cross-validation folds. The test worsened each patient on one directed feature at a time to check whether risk fell; SHAP direction and calibration were also assessed. Key Findings and Limitations: Tumour stage and carcinoma in situ were associated with lower recurrence, opposite to medical intuition; the unconstrained model reversed carcinoma in situ counterfactuals in 90.2% of cases and stage in 74.3%. Discrimination (ΔAUC 0.005, p=0.47), calibration, and SHAP magnitude were all blind to the inversion. Monotonic constraints eliminated every violation at no cost to discrimination (0.723 vs 0.718) and outperformed EORTC (p=8.9e-16). Limitations: single trial, internal-external validation only. Conclusions and Clinical Implications: A model that had learned this inversion passed every conventional check. A counterfactual direction test, run as a single refit with pre-specified monotonic constraints, catches this failure at no cost to performance and should be routine before clinical deployment.

Evaluating large language models at scale remains a practical bottleneck for many organizations. While existing evaluation frameworks work well for thousands of examples, they struggle when datasets grow to hundreds of thousands or millions of samples. This scale is common when assessing model behavior across diverse domains or conducting comprehensive regression testing. We present Spark-LLM-Eval, a distributed evaluation framework built natively on Apache Spark. The system treats evaluation as a data-parallel problem, partitioningexamplesacrossexecutorsandaggregatingresultswithproperstatistical accounting. Beyond raw throughput, we emphasize statistical rigor: every reported metric includes bootstrap confidence intervals, and model comparisons come with appropriate significance tests (paired t-tests, McNemar's test, or Wilcoxon signed-rank, depending on the metric type). The framework also addresses the cost problem inherent in LLM evaluation through content-addressable response caching backed by Delta Lake, which allows iterating on metric definitions without re-running inference. We describe the system architecture, the statistical methodology, and report benchmark results showing linear scaling with cluster size. The framework and all evaluation code are available as open source.

Medical benchmark datasets significantly contribute to developing Large Language Models (LLMs) for medical knowledge extraction, diagnosis, summarization, and other uses. Yet, current benchmarks are mainly derived from exam questions given to medical students or cases described in the medical literature, lacking the complexity of real-world patient cases that deviate from classic textbook abstractions. These include rare diseases, uncommon presentations of common diseases, and unexpected treatment responses. Here, we construct Clinically Uncommon Patient Cases and Diagnosis Dataset (CUPCase) based on 3,562 real-world case reports from BMC, including diagnoses in open-ended textual format and as multiple-choice options with distractors. Using this dataset, we evaluate the ability of state-of-the-art LLMs, including both general-purpose and Clinical LLMs, to identify and correctly diagnose a patient case, and test models' performance when only partial information about cases is available. Our findings show that general-purpose GPT-4o attains the best performance in both the multiple-choice task (average accuracy of 87.9%) and the open-ended task (BERTScore F1 of 0.764), outperforming several LLMs with a focus on the medical domain such as Meditron-70B and MedLM-Large. Moreover, GPT-4o was able to maintain 87% and 88% of its performance with only the first 20% of tokens of the case presentation in multiple-choice and free text, respectively, highlighting the potential of LLMs to aid in early diagnosis in real-world cases. CUPCase expands our ability to evaluate LLMs for clinical decision support in an open and reproducible manner.

Machine learning methods strive to acquire a robust model during the training process that can effectively generalize to test samples, even in the presence of distribution shifts. However, these methods often suffer from performance degradation due to unknown test distributions. Test-time adaptation (TTA), an emerging paradigm, has the potential to adapt a pre-trained model to unlabeled data during testing, before making predictions. Recent progress in this paradigm has highlighted the significant benefits of using unlabeled data to train self-adapted models prior to inference. In this survey, we categorize TTA into several distinct groups based on the form of test data, namely, test-time domain adaptation, test-time batch adaptation, and online test-time adaptation. For each category, we provide a comprehensive taxonomy of advanced algorithms and discuss various learning scenarios. Furthermore, we analyze relevant applications of TTA and discuss open challenges and promising areas for future research. For a comprehensive list of TTA methods, kindly refer to https://github.com/tim-learn/awesome-test-time-adaptation.

Introduction: Data from wearable devices collected in free-living settings, and labelled with physical activity behaviours compatible with health research, are essential for both validating existing wearable-based measurement approaches and developing novel machine learning approaches. One common way of obtaining these labels relies on laborious annotation of sequences of images captured by cameras worn by participants through the course of a day. Methods: We compare the performance of three vision language models and two discriminative models on two free-living validation studies with 161 and 111 participants, collected in Oxfordshire, United Kingdom and Sichuan, China, respectively, using the Autographer (OMG Life, defunct) wearable camera. Results: We found that the best open-source vision-language model (VLM) and fine-tuned discriminative model (DM) achieved comparable performance when predicting sedentary behaviour from single images on unseen participants in the Oxfordshire study; median F1-scores: VLM = 0.89 (0.84, 0.92), DM = 0.91 (0.86, 0.95). Performance declined for light (VLM = 0.60 (0.56,0.67), DM = 0.70 (0.63, 0.79)), and moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (VLM = 0.66 (0.53, 0.85); DM = 0.72 (0.58, 0.84)). When applied to the external Sichuan study, performance fell across all intensity categories, with median Cohen's kappa-scores falling from 0.54 (0.49, 0.64) to 0.26 (0.15, 0.37) for the VLM, and from 0.67 (0.60, 0.74) to 0.19 (0.10, 0.30) for the DM. Conclusion: Freely available computer vision models could help annotate sedentary behaviour, typically the most prevalent activity of daily living, from wearable camera images within similar populations to seen data, reducing the annotation burden.