Daily Papers

Autonomous driving requires safe planning, but most learning-based planners lack explicit self-correction ability: once an unsafe action is proposed, there is no mechanism to correct it. Thus, we propose CorrectionPlanner, an autoregressive planner with self-correction that models planning as motion-token generation within a propose, evaluate, and correct loop. At each planning step, the policy proposes an action, namely a motion token, and a learned collision critic predicts whether it will induce a collision within a short horizon. If the critic predicts a collision, we retain the sequence of historical unsafe motion tokens as a self-correction trace, generate the next motion token conditioned on it, and repeat this process until a safe motion token is proposed or the safety criterion is met. This self-correction trace, consisting of all unsafe motion tokens, represents the planner's correction process in motion-token space, analogous to a reasoning trace in language models. We train the planner with imitation learning followed by model-based reinforcement learning using rollouts from a pretrained world model that realistically models agents' reactive behaviors. Closed-loop evaluations show that CorrectionPlanner reduces collision rate by over 20% on Waymax and achieves state-of-the-art planning scores on nuPlan.

Current autoregressive language models (ARMs) achieve high accuracy but require long token sequences, making them costly. Discrete diffusion language models (DDLMs) enable parallel and flexible generation within a fixed number of steps and have recently emerged for their strong performance in complex reasoning and long-term planning tasks. We present a study exploring hybrid architectures that couple DDLMs with ARMs to assess whether their collaboration can yield complementary benefits. We first examine collaboration in text space, where one model plans the reasoning process and another executes the final answer based on that plan. We then extend this setup to latent-space communication, introducing a learned projector that maps DDLM latents into the ARM's embedding space, potentially bypassing some of the text-generation limitations of diffusion models. We find that shifting DDLM --> ARM communication from text space to latent space yields significant accuracy gains, for example increasing from 27.0% to 54.0% on DART-5 and from 0.0% to 14.0% on AIME24. We also find that combining a DDLM planner with an ARM executor can provide substantial computational savings with little to no impact on accuracy. For example, the latent-space pipeline, using 64 tokens for planning and roughly 5 for execution, surpasses Qwen3.1-7B on DART-5 and AIME, despite Qwen using 44 times more tokens. Overall, our study offers new insights into reasoning with DDLMs and highlights their potential in hybrid architectures.

Autoregressive models for text sometimes generate repetitive and low-quality output because errors accumulate during the steps of generation. This issue is often attributed to exposure bias - the difference between how a model is trained, and how it is used during inference. Denoising diffusion models provide an alternative approach in which a model can revisit and revise its output. However, they can be computationally expensive and prior efforts on text have led to models that produce less fluent output compared to autoregressive models, especially for longer text and paragraphs. In this paper, we propose PLANNER, a model that combines latent semantic diffusion with autoregressive generation, to generate fluent text while exercising global control over paragraphs. The model achieves this by combining an autoregressive "decoding" module with a "planning" module that uses latent diffusion to generate semantic paragraph embeddings in a coarse-to-fine manner. The proposed method is evaluated on various conditional generation tasks, and results on semantic generation, text completion and summarization show its effectiveness in generating high-quality long-form text in an efficient manner.

Diffusion models have demonstrated exceptional visual quality in video generation, making them promising for autonomous driving world modeling. However, existing video diffusion-based world models struggle with flexible-length, long-horizon predictions and integrating trajectory planning. This is because conventional video diffusion models rely on global joint distribution modeling of fixed-length frame sequences rather than sequentially constructing localized distributions at each timestep. In this work, we propose Epona, an autoregressive diffusion world model that enables localized spatiotemporal distribution modeling through two key innovations: 1) Decoupled spatiotemporal factorization that separates temporal dynamics modeling from fine-grained future world generation, and 2) Modular trajectory and video prediction that seamlessly integrate motion planning with visual modeling in an end-to-end framework. Our architecture enables high-resolution, long-duration generation while introducing a novel chain-of-forward training strategy to address error accumulation in autoregressive loops. Experimental results demonstrate state-of-the-art performance with 7.4\% FVD improvement and minutes longer prediction duration compared to prior works. The learned world model further serves as a real-time motion planner, outperforming strong end-to-end planners on NAVSIM benchmarks. Code will be publicly available at https://github.com/Kevin-thu/Epona/{https://github.com/Kevin-thu/Epona/}.

For effective human-robot interaction, robots need to understand, plan, and execute complex, long-horizon tasks described by natural language. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have shown promise for translating natural language into robot action sequences for complex tasks. However, existing approaches either translate the natural language directly into robot trajectories or factor the inference process by decomposing language into task sub-goals and relying on a motion planner to execute each sub-goal. When complex environmental and temporal constraints are involved, inference over planning tasks must be performed jointly with motion plans using traditional task-and-motion planning (TAMP) algorithms, making factorization into subgoals untenable. Rather than using LLMs to directly plan task sub-goals, we instead perform few-shot translation from natural language task descriptions to an intermediate task representation that can then be consumed by a TAMP algorithm to jointly solve the task and motion plan. To improve translation, we automatically detect and correct both syntactic and semantic errors via autoregressive re-prompting, resulting in significant improvements in task completion. We show that our approach outperforms several methods using LLMs as planners in complex task domains. See our project website https://yongchao98.github.io/MIT-REALM-AutoTAMP/ for prompts, videos, and code.

Diffusion language models (DLMs) have shown strong potential for general natural language tasks with in-context examples. However, due to the bidirectional attention mechanism, DLMs incur substantial computational cost as context length increases. This work addresses this issue with a key discovery: unlike the sequential generation in autoregressive language models (ARLMs), the diffusion generation paradigm in DLMs allows efficient dynamic adjustment of the context during generation. Building on this insight, we propose Dynamic In-Context Planner (DIP), a context-optimization method that dynamically selects and inserts in-context examples during generation, rather than providing all examples in the prompt upfront. Results show DIP maintains generation quality while achieving up to 12.9times inference speedup over standard inference and 1.17times over KV cache-enhanced inference.

Most multi-agent systems rely exclusively on autoregressive language models (ARMs) that are based on sequential generation. Although effective for fluent text, ARMs limit global reasoning and plan revision. On the other hand, Discrete Diffusion Language Models (DDLMs) enable non-sequential, globally revisable generation and have shown strong planning capabilities, but their limited text fluency hinders direct collaboration with ARMs. We introduce Latent-DARM, a latent-space communication framework bridging DDLM (planners) and ARM (executors), maximizing collaborative benefits. Across mathematical, scientific, and commonsense reasoning benchmarks, Latent-DARM outperforms text-based interfaces on average, improving accuracy from 27.0% to 36.0% on DART-5 and from 0.0% to 14.0% on AIME2024. Latent-DARM approaches the results of state-of-the-art reasoning models while using less than 2.2% of its token budget. This work advances multi-agent collaboration among agents with heterogeneous models.

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) generate text via iterative denoising but consistently underperform on multi-step reasoning. We hypothesize this gap stems from a coordination problem: AR models build coherence token-by-token, while diffusion models must coordinate all positions simultaneously. We propose plan conditioning, a training-free method that prepends a short (~100-token) natural-language plan from an AR model to the diffusion model's prompt. The plan serves as a frozen scaffold -- globally visible context that every token position can attend to from the first denoising step. On GSM8K, plan conditioning improves LLaDA-8B-Instruct from 75.6% to 87.2% (+11.6 percentage points), matching a same-size AR model (LLaMA 3.1 8B, 87.7%) despite a 6.4pp weaker baseline. On HumanEval, the gain is +12.8pp (37.2% to 50.0%), showing plans generalize to code. The same plans improve LLaMA by only +5.7pp on GSM8K and +1.3pp on HumanEval -- diffusion models benefit 2-10x more, supporting the coordination-problem hypothesis. Across 5 random seeds, plan-conditioned GSM8K accuracy has zero standard deviation, making diffusion inference highly stable. Ablations reveal the model follows plan strategy (wrong-strategy plans cause -16.3pp) but is robust to plan values (perturbed numbers: -1.1pp), and that planner quality has a sharp threshold: smaller Llama-class plans hurt (-1.6 to -6.8pp) while frontier plans provide the full lift. Attention analysis confirms the mechanism: plan tokens receive 1.8x excess attention during early denoising, declining to uniform as completion tokens solidify. Plan conditioning costs ~$0.002 per problem and adds ~2s of latency.

Current autoregressive diffusion models excel at video generation but are generally limited to short temporal durations. Our theoretical analysis indicates that the autoregressive modeling typically suffers from temporal drift caused by error accumulation and hinders parallelization in long video synthesis. To address these limitations, we propose a novel planning-then-populating framework centered on Macro-from-Micro Planning (MMPL) for long video generation. MMPL sketches a global storyline for the entire video through two hierarchical stages: Micro Planning and Macro Planning. Specifically, Micro Planning predicts a sparse set of future keyframes within each short video segment, offering motion and appearance priors to guide high-quality video segment generation. Macro Planning extends the in-segment keyframes planning across the entire video through an autoregressive chain of micro plans, ensuring long-term consistency across video segments. Subsequently, MMPL-based Content Populating generates all intermediate frames in parallel across segments, enabling efficient parallelization of autoregressive generation. The parallelization is further optimized by Adaptive Workload Scheduling for balanced GPU execution and accelerated autoregressive video generation. Extensive experiments confirm that our method outperforms existing long video generation models in quality and stability. Generated videos and comparison results are in our project page.

In this paper, we present the findings of our Project ALPINE which stands for ``Autoregressive Learning for Planning In NEtworks." Project ALPINE initiates a theoretical investigation into the development of planning capabilities in Transformer-based language models through their autoregressive learning mechanisms, aiming to identify any potential limitations in their planning abilities. We abstract planning as a network path-finding task where the objective is to generate a valid path from a specified source node to a designated target node. In terms of expressiveness, we show that the Transformer is capable of executing path-finding by embedding the adjacency and reachability matrices within its weights. Our theoretical analysis of the gradient-based learning dynamic of the Transformer reveals that the Transformer is capable of learning both the adjacency matrix and a limited form of the reachability matrix. These theoretical insights are then validated through experiments, which demonstrate that the Transformer indeed learns the adjacency matrix and an incomplete reachability matrix, which aligns with the predictions made in our theoretical analysis. Additionally, when applying our methodology to a real-world planning benchmark, called Blocksworld, our observations remain consistent. Our theoretical and empirical analyses further unveil a potential limitation of Transformer in path-finding: it cannot identify reachability relationships through transitivity, and thus would fail when path concatenation is needed to generate a path. In summary, our findings shed new light on how the internal mechanisms of autoregressive learning enable planning in networks. This study may contribute to our understanding of the general planning capabilities in other related domains.

Recent visual autoregressive (AR) models have shown promising capabilities in text-to-image generation, operating in a manner similar to large language models. While test-time computation scaling has brought remarkable success in enabling reasoning-enhanced outputs for challenging natural language tasks, its adaptation to visual AR models remains unexplored and poses unique challenges. Naively applying test-time scaling strategies such as Best-of-N can be suboptimal: they consume full-length computation on erroneous generation trajectories, while the raster-scan decoding scheme lacks a blueprint of the entire canvas, limiting scaling benefits as only a few prompt-aligned candidates are generated. To address these, we introduce GridAR, a test-time scaling framework designed to elicit the best possible results from visual AR models. GridAR employs a grid-partitioned progressive generation scheme in which multiple partial candidates for the same position are generated within a canvas, infeasible ones are pruned early, and viable ones are fixed as anchors to guide subsequent decoding. Coupled with this, we present a layout-specified prompt reformulation strategy that inspects partial views to infer a feasible layout for satisfying the prompt. The reformulated prompt then guides subsequent image generation to mitigate the blueprint deficiency. Together, GridAR achieves higher-quality results under limited test-time scaling: with N=4, it even outperforms Best-of-N (N=8) by 14.4% on T2I-CompBench++ while reducing cost by 25.6%. It also generalizes to autoregressive image editing, showing comparable edit quality and a 13.9% gain in semantic preservation on PIE-Bench over larger-N baselines.

Autoregressive (AR) modeling has achieved remarkable success in natural language processing by enabling models to generate text with coherence and contextual understanding through next token prediction. Recently, in image generation, VAR proposes scale-wise autoregressive modeling, which extends the next token prediction to the next scale prediction, preserving the 2D structure of images. However, VAR encounters two primary challenges: (1) its complex and rigid scale design limits generalization in next scale prediction, and (2) the generator's dependence on a discrete tokenizer with the same complex scale structure restricts modularity and flexibility in updating the tokenizer. To address these limitations, we introduce FlowAR, a general next scale prediction method featuring a streamlined scale design, where each subsequent scale is simply double the previous one. This eliminates the need for VAR's intricate multi-scale residual tokenizer and enables the use of any off-the-shelf Variational AutoEncoder (VAE). Our simplified design enhances generalization in next scale prediction and facilitates the integration of Flow Matching for high-quality image synthesis. We validate the effectiveness of FlowAR on the challenging ImageNet-256 benchmark, demonstrating superior generation performance compared to previous methods. Codes will be available at https://github.com/OliverRensu/FlowAR.

A central challenge in large language model inference is the trade-off between generation speed and output quality. Autoregressive models produce high-quality text but generate tokens sequentially. Diffusion models can generate tokens in parallel but often need many iterations to match the same quality. We propose planned diffusion, a hybrid method that combines the strengths of both paradigms. Planned diffusion works in two stages: first, the model creates a short autoregressive plan that breaks the output into smaller, independent spans. Second, the model generates these spans simultaneously using diffusion. This approach expands the speed-quality Pareto frontier and provides a practical path to faster, high-quality text generation. On AlpacaEval, a suite of 805 instruction-following prompts, planned diffusion achieves Pareto-optimal trade-off between quality and latency, achieving 1.27x to 1.81x speedup over autoregressive generation with only 0.87\% to 5.4\% drop in win rate, respectively. Our sensitivity analysis shows that the planning mechanism of planned diffusion is minimal and reliable, and simple runtime knobs exist to provide flexible control of the quality-latency trade-off.

Autoregressive modeling has been a huge success in the field of natural language processing (NLP). Recently, autoregressive models have emerged as a significant area of focus in computer vision, where they excel in producing high-quality visual content. Autoregressive models in NLP typically operate on subword tokens. However, the representation strategy in computer vision can vary in different levels, i.e., pixel-level, token-level, or scale-level, reflecting the diverse and hierarchical nature of visual data compared to the sequential structure of language. This survey comprehensively examines the literature on autoregressive models applied to vision. To improve readability for researchers from diverse research backgrounds, we start with preliminary sequence representation and modeling in vision. Next, we divide the fundamental frameworks of visual autoregressive models into three general sub-categories, including pixel-based, token-based, and scale-based models based on the strategy of representation. We then explore the interconnections between autoregressive models and other generative models. Furthermore, we present a multi-faceted categorization of autoregressive models in computer vision, including image generation, video generation, 3D generation, and multi-modal generation. We also elaborate on their applications in diverse domains, including emerging domains such as embodied AI and 3D medical AI, with about 250 related references. Finally, we highlight the current challenges to autoregressive models in vision with suggestions about potential research directions. We have also set up a Github repository to organize the papers included in this survey at: https://github.com/ChaofanTao/Autoregressive-Models-in-Vision-Survey.

Powerful priors allow us to perform inference with insufficient information. In this paper, we propose an autoregressive prior for 3D shapes to solve multimodal 3D tasks such as shape completion, reconstruction, and generation. We model the distribution over 3D shapes as a non-sequential autoregressive distribution over a discretized, low-dimensional, symbolic grid-like latent representation of 3D shapes. This enables us to represent distributions over 3D shapes conditioned on information from an arbitrary set of spatially anchored query locations and thus perform shape completion in such arbitrary settings (e.g., generating a complete chair given only a view of the back leg). We also show that the learned autoregressive prior can be leveraged for conditional tasks such as single-view reconstruction and language-based generation. This is achieved by learning task-specific naive conditionals which can be approximated by light-weight models trained on minimal paired data. We validate the effectiveness of the proposed method using both quantitative and qualitative evaluation and show that the proposed method outperforms the specialized state-of-the-art methods trained for individual tasks. The project page with code and video visualizations can be found at https://yccyenchicheng.github.io/AutoSDF/.

Autoregressive (AR) language models generate text one token at a time, even when consecutive tokens are highly predictable given earlier context. We introduce MARS (Mask AutoRegreSsion), a lightweight fine-tuning method that teaches an instruction-tuned AR model to predict multiple tokens per forward pass. MARS adds no architectural modifications, no extra parameters, and produces a single model that can still be called exactly like the original AR model with no performance degradation. Unlike speculative decoding, which maintains a separate draft model alongside the target, or multi-head approaches such as Medusa, which attach additional prediction heads, MARS requires only continued training on existing instruction data. When generating one token per forward pass, MARS matches or exceeds the AR baseline on six standard benchmarks. When allowed to accept multiple tokens per step, it maintains baseline-level accuracy while achieving 1.5-1.7x throughput. We further develop a block-level KV caching strategy for batch inference, achieving up to 1.71x wall-clock speedup over AR with KV cache on Qwen2.5-7B. Finally, MARS supports real-time speed adjustment via confidence thresholding: under high request load, the serving system can increase throughput on the fly without swapping models or restarting, providing a practical latency-quality knob for deployment.

In autoregressive (AR) image generation, models based on the 'next-token prediction' paradigm of LLMs have shown comparable performance to diffusion models by reducing inductive biases. However, directly applying LLMs to complex image generation can struggle with reconstructing the image's structure and details, impacting the generation's accuracy and stability. Additionally, the 'next-token prediction' paradigm in the AR model does not align with the contextual scanning and logical reasoning processes involved in human visual perception, limiting effective image generation. Prompt engineering, as a key technique for guiding LLMs, leverages specifically designed prompts to improve model performance on complex natural language processing (NLP) tasks, enhancing accuracy and stability of generation while maintaining contextual coherence and logical consistency, similar to human reasoning. Inspired by prompt engineering from the field of NLP, we propose Vision Full-view prompt (VF prompt) to enhance autoregressive image generation. Specifically, we design specialized image-related VF prompts for AR image generation to simulate the process of human image creation. This enhances contextual logic ability by allowing the model to first perceive overall distribution information before generating the image, and improve generation stability by increasing the inference steps. Compared to the AR method without VF prompts, our method shows outstanding performance and achieves an approximate improvement of 20%.

Autoregressive models (ARMs) have become the workhorse for sequence generation tasks, since many problems can be modeled as next-token prediction. While there appears to be a natural ordering for text (i.e., left-to-right), for many data types, such as graphs, the canonical ordering is less obvious. To address this problem, we introduce a variant of ARM that generates high-dimensional data using a probabilistic ordering that is sequentially inferred from data. This model incorporates a trainable probability distribution, referred to as an order-policy, that dynamically decides the autoregressive order in a state-dependent manner. To train the model, we introduce a variational lower bound on the exact log-likelihood, which we optimize with stochastic gradient estimation. We demonstrate experimentally that our method can learn meaningful autoregressive orderings in image and graph generation. On the challenging domain of molecular graph generation, we achieve state-of-the-art results on the QM9 and ZINC250k benchmarks, evaluated using the Fr\'{e}chet ChemNet Distance (FCD).

Radiotherapy often involves a prolonged treatment period. During this time, patients may experience organ motion due to breathing and other physiological factors. Predicting and modeling this motion before treatment is crucial for ensuring precise radiation delivery. However, existing pre-treatment organ motion prediction methods primarily rely on deformation analysis using principal component analysis (PCA), which is highly dependent on registration quality and struggles to capture periodic temporal dynamics for motion modeling.In this paper, we observe that organ motion prediction closely resembles an autoregressive process, a technique widely used in natural language processing (NLP). Autoregressive models predict the next token based on previous inputs, naturally aligning with our objective of predicting future organ motion phases. Building on this insight, we reformulate organ motion prediction as an autoregressive process to better capture patient-specific motion patterns. Specifically, we acquire 4D CT scans for each patient before treatment, with each sequence comprising multiple 3D CT phases. These phases are fed into the autoregressive model to predict future phases based on prior phase motion patterns. We evaluate our method on a real-world test set of 4D CT scans from 50 patients who underwent radiotherapy at our institution and a public dataset containing 4D CT scans from 20 patients (some with multiple scans), totaling over 1,300 3D CT phases. The performance in predicting the motion of the lung and heart surpasses existing benchmarks, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing motion dynamics from CT images. These results highlight the potential of our method to improve pre-treatment planning in radiotherapy, enabling more precise and adaptive radiation delivery.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Autoregressive (AR) models have reformulated image generation as next-token prediction, demonstrating remarkable potential and emerging as strong competitors to diffusion models. However, control-to-image generation, akin to ControlNet, remains largely unexplored within AR models. Although a natural approach, inspired by advancements in Large Language Models, is to tokenize control images into tokens and prefill them into the autoregressive model before decoding image tokens, it still falls short in generation quality compared to ControlNet and suffers from inefficiency. To this end, we introduce ControlAR, an efficient and effective framework for integrating spatial controls into autoregressive image generation models. Firstly, we explore control encoding for AR models and propose a lightweight control encoder to transform spatial inputs (e.g., canny edges or depth maps) into control tokens. Then ControlAR exploits the conditional decoding method to generate the next image token conditioned on the per-token fusion between control and image tokens, similar to positional encodings. Compared to prefilling tokens, using conditional decoding significantly strengthens the control capability of AR models but also maintains the model's efficiency. Furthermore, the proposed ControlAR surprisingly empowers AR models with arbitrary-resolution image generation via conditional decoding and specific controls. Extensive experiments can demonstrate the controllability of the proposed ControlAR for the autoregressive control-to-image generation across diverse inputs, including edges, depths, and segmentation masks. Furthermore, both quantitative and qualitative results indicate that ControlAR surpasses previous state-of-the-art controllable diffusion models, e.g., ControlNet++. Code, models, and demo will soon be available at https://github.com/hustvl/ControlAR.

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online.

This paper presents two variations of a novel stochastic prediction algorithm that enables mobile robots to accurately and robustly predict the future state of complex dynamic scenes. The proposed algorithm uses a variational autoencoder to predict a range of possible future states of the environment. The algorithm takes full advantage of the motion of the robot itself, the motion of dynamic objects, and the geometry of static objects in the scene to improve prediction accuracy. Three simulated and real-world datasets collected by different robot models are used to demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is able to achieve more accurate and robust prediction performance than other prediction algorithms. Furthermore, a predictive uncertainty-aware planner is proposed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed predictor in simulation and real-world navigation experiments. Implementations are open source at https://github.com/TempleRAIL/SOGMP.

Forecasting time series data is a critical area of research with applications spanning from stock prices to early epidemic prediction. While numerous statistical and machine learning methods have been proposed, real-life prediction problems often require hybrid solutions that bridge classical forecasting approaches and modern neural network models. In this study, we introduce the Probabilistic AutoRegressive Neural Networks (PARNN), capable of handling complex time series data exhibiting non-stationarity, nonlinearity, non-seasonality, long-range dependence, and chaotic patterns. PARNN is constructed by improving autoregressive neural networks (ARNN) using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) feedback error, combining the explainability, scalability, and "white-box-like" prediction behavior of both models. Notably, the PARNN model provides uncertainty quantification through prediction intervals, setting it apart from advanced deep learning tools. Through comprehensive computational experiments, we evaluate the performance of PARNN against standard statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models, including Transformers, NBeats, and DeepAR. Diverse real-world datasets from macroeconomics, tourism, epidemiology, and other domains are employed for short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecasting evaluations. Our results demonstrate the superiority of PARNN across various forecast horizons, surpassing the state-of-the-art forecasters. The proposed PARNN model offers a valuable hybrid solution for accurate long-range forecasting. By effectively capturing the complexities present in time series data, it outperforms existing methods in terms of accuracy and reliability. The ability to quantify uncertainty through prediction intervals further enhances the model's usefulness in decision-making processes.

We propose a novel framework for learning high-level cognitive capabilities in robot manipulation tasks, such as making a smiley face using building blocks. These tasks often involve complex multi-step reasoning, presenting significant challenges due to the limited paired data connecting human instructions (e.g., making a smiley face) and robot actions (e.g., end-effector movement). Existing approaches relieve this challenge by adopting an open-loop paradigm decomposing high-level instructions into simple sub-task plans, and executing them step-by-step using low-level control models. However, these approaches are short of instant observations in multi-step reasoning, leading to sub-optimal results. To address this issue, we propose to automatically collect a cognitive robot dataset by Large Language Models (LLMs). The resulting dataset AlphaBlock consists of 35 comprehensive high-level tasks of multi-step text plans and paired observation sequences. To enable efficient data acquisition, we employ elaborated multi-round prompt designs that effectively reduce the burden of extensive human involvement. We further propose a closed-loop multi-modal embodied planning model that autoregressively generates plans by taking image observations as input. To facilitate effective learning, we leverage MiniGPT-4 with a frozen visual encoder and LLM, and finetune additional vision adapter and Q-former to enable fine-grained spatial perception for manipulation tasks. We conduct experiments to verify the superiority over existing open and closed-loop methods, and achieve a significant increase in success rate by 21.4% and 14.5% over ChatGPT and GPT-4 based robot tasks. Real-world demos are shown in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayAzID1_qQk .

Autoregressive (AR) models have emerged as powerful tools for image generation by modeling images as sequences of discrete tokens. While Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) has been adopted to improve conditional generation, its application in AR models faces two key issues: guidance diminishing, where the conditional-unconditional gap quickly vanishes as decoding progresses, and over-guidance, where strong conditions distort visual coherence. To address these challenges, we propose SoftCFG, an uncertainty-guided inference method that distributes adaptive perturbations across all tokens in the sequence. The key idea behind SoftCFG is to let each generated token contribute certainty-weighted guidance, ensuring that the signal persists across steps while resolving conflicts between text guidance and visual context. To further stabilize long-sequence generation, we introduce Step Normalization, which bounds cumulative perturbations of SoftCFG. Our method is training-free, model-agnostic, and seamlessly integrates with existing AR pipelines. Experiments show that SoftCFG significantly improves image quality over standard CFG and achieves state-of-the-art FID on ImageNet 256*256 among autoregressive models.

Autoregressive (AR) models for image generation typically adopt a two-stage paradigm of vector quantization and raster-scan ``next-token prediction", inspired by its great success in language modeling. However, due to the huge modality gap, image autoregressive models may require a systematic reevaluation from two perspectives: tokenizer format and regression direction. In this paper, we introduce the frequency progressive autoregressive (FAR) paradigm and instantiate FAR with the continuous tokenizer. Specifically, we identify spectral dependency as the desirable regression direction for FAR, wherein higher-frequency components build upon the lower one to progressively construct a complete image. This design seamlessly fits the causality requirement for autoregressive models and preserves the unique spatial locality of image data. Besides, we delve into the integration of FAR and the continuous tokenizer, introducing a series of techniques to address optimization challenges and improve the efficiency of training and inference processes. We demonstrate the efficacy of FAR through comprehensive experiments on the ImageNet dataset and verify its potential on text-to-image generation.

Autoregressive language models, despite their impressive capabilities, struggle with complex reasoning and long-term planning tasks. We introduce discrete diffusion models as a novel solution to these challenges. Through the lens of subgoal imbalance, we demonstrate how diffusion models effectively learn difficult subgoals that elude autoregressive approaches. We propose Multi-granularity Diffusion Modeling (MDM), which prioritizes subgoals based on difficulty during learning. On complex tasks like Countdown, Sudoku, and Boolean Satisfiability Problems, MDM significantly outperforms autoregressive models without using search techniques. For instance, MDM achieves 91.5\% and 100\% accuracy on Countdown and Sudoku, respectively, compared to 45.8\% and 20.7\% for autoregressive models. Our work highlights the potential of diffusion-based approaches in advancing AI capabilities for sophisticated language understanding and problem-solving tasks.

Generating high-quality 360° panoramic videos from perspective input is one of the crucial applications for virtual reality (VR), whereby high-resolution videos are especially important for immersive experience. Existing methods are constrained by computational limitations of vanilla diffusion models, only supporting leq 1K resolution native generation and relying on suboptimal post super-resolution to increase resolution. We introduce CubeComposer, a novel spatio-temporal autoregressive diffusion model that natively generates 4K-resolution 360° videos. By decomposing videos into cubemap representations with six faces, CubeComposer autoregressively synthesizes content in a well-planned spatio-temporal order, reducing memory demands while enabling high-resolution output. Specifically, to address challenges in multi-dimensional autoregression, we propose: (1) a spatio-temporal autoregressive strategy that orchestrates 360° video generation across cube faces and time windows for coherent synthesis; (2) a cube face context management mechanism, equipped with a sparse context attention design to improve efficiency; and (3) continuity-aware techniques, including cube-aware positional encoding, padding, and blending to eliminate boundary seams. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that CubeComposer outperforms state-of-the-art methods in native resolution and visual quality, supporting practical VR application scenarios. Project page: https://lg-li.github.io/project/cubecomposer

Reinforcement learning has been applied in operation research and has shown promise in solving large combinatorial optimization problems. However, existing works focus on developing neural network architectures for certain problems. These works lack the flexibility to incorporate recent advances in reinforcement learning, as well as the flexibility of customizing model architectures for operation research problems. In this work, we analyze the end-to-end autoregressive models for vehicle routing problems and show that these models can benefit from the recent advances in reinforcement learning with a careful re-implementation of the model architecture. In particular, we re-implemented the Attention Model and trained it with Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) in CleanRL, showing at least 8 times speed up in training time. We hereby introduce RLOR, a flexible framework for Deep Reinforcement Learning for Operation Research. We believe that a flexible framework is key to developing deep reinforcement learning models for operation research problems. The code of our work is publicly available at https://github.com/cpwan/RLOR.

Vision-language-action models have reshaped autonomous driving to incorporate languages into the decision-making process. However, most existing pipelines only utilize the language modality for scene descriptions or reasoning and lack the flexibility to follow diverse user instructions for personalized driving. To address this, we first construct a large-scale driving dataset (InstructScene) containing around 100,000 scenes annotated with diverse driving instructions with the corresponding trajectories. We then propose a unified Vision-Language-World-Action model, Vega, for instruction-based generation and planning. We employ the autoregressive paradigm to process visual inputs (vision) and language instructions (language) and the diffusion paradigm to generate future predictions (world modeling) and trajectories (action). We perform joint attention to enable interactions between the modalities and use individual projection layers for different modalities for more capabilities. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method not only achieves superior planning performance but also exhibits strong instruction-following abilities, paving the way for more intelligent and personalized driving systems.

Recent advances in autoregressive (AR) models have demonstrated their potential to rival diffusion models in image synthesis. However, for complex spatially-conditioned generation, current AR approaches rely on fine-tuning the pre-trained model, leading to significant training costs. In this paper, we propose the Efficient Control Model (ECM), a plug-and-play framework featuring a lightweight control module that introduces control signals via a distributed architecture. This architecture consists of context-aware attention layers that refine conditional features using real-time generated tokens, and a shared gated feed-forward network (FFN) designed to maximize the utilization of its limited capacity and ensure coherent control feature learning. Furthermore, recognizing the critical role of early-stage generation in determining semantic structure, we introduce an early-centric sampling strategy that prioritizes learning early control sequences. This approach reduces computational cost by lowering the number of training tokens per iteration, while a complementary temperature scheduling during inference compensates for the resulting insufficient training of late-stage tokens. Extensive experiments on scale-based AR models validate that our method achieves high-fidelity and diverse control over image generation, surpassing existing baselines while significantly improving both training and inference efficiency.

Extending the forecasting time is a critical demand for real applications, such as extreme weather early warning and long-term energy consumption planning. This paper studies the long-term forecasting problem of time series. Prior Transformer-based models adopt various self-attention mechanisms to discover the long-range dependencies. However, intricate temporal patterns of the long-term future prohibit the model from finding reliable dependencies. Also, Transformers have to adopt the sparse versions of point-wise self-attentions for long series efficiency, resulting in the information utilization bottleneck. Going beyond Transformers, we design Autoformer as a novel decomposition architecture with an Auto-Correlation mechanism. We break with the pre-processing convention of series decomposition and renovate it as a basic inner block of deep models. This design empowers Autoformer with progressive decomposition capacities for complex time series. Further, inspired by the stochastic process theory, we design the Auto-Correlation mechanism based on the series periodicity, which conducts the dependencies discovery and representation aggregation at the sub-series level. Auto-Correlation outperforms self-attention in both efficiency and accuracy. In long-term forecasting, Autoformer yields state-of-the-art accuracy, with a 38% relative improvement on six benchmarks, covering five practical applications: energy, traffic, economics, weather and disease. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Autoformer.

The recent surge of interest in comprehensive multimodal models has necessitated the unification of diverse modalities. However, the unification suffers from disparate methodologies. Continuous visual generation necessitates the full-sequence diffusion-based approach, despite its divergence from the autoregressive modeling in the text domain. We posit that autoregressive modeling, i.e., predicting the future based on past deterministic experience, remains crucial in developing both a visual generation model and a potential unified multimodal model. In this paper, we explore an interpolation between the autoregressive modeling and full-parameters diffusion to model visual information. At its core, we present ACDiT, an Autoregressive blockwise Conditional Diffusion Transformer, where the block size of diffusion, i.e., the size of autoregressive units, can be flexibly adjusted to interpolate between token-wise autoregression and full-sequence diffusion. ACDiT is easy to implement, as simple as creating a Skip-Causal Attention Mask (SCAM) during training. During inference, the process iterates between diffusion denoising and autoregressive decoding that can make full use of KV-Cache. We verify the effectiveness of ACDiT on image and video generation tasks. We also demonstrate that benefitted from autoregressive modeling, ACDiT can be seamlessly used in visual understanding tasks despite being trained on the diffusion objective. The analysis of the trade-off between autoregressive modeling and diffusion demonstrates the potential of ACDiT to be used in long-horizon visual generation tasks. These strengths make it promising as the backbone of future unified models.

Forecasting from partial observations is central to world modeling. Many recent methods represent the world through images, and reduce forecasting to stochastic video generation. Although such methods excel at realism and visual fidelity, predicting pixels is computationally intensive and not directly useful in many applications, as it requires translating RGB into signals useful for decision making. An alternative approach uses features from vision foundation models (VFMs) as world representations, performing deterministic regression to predict future world states. These features can be directly translated into actionable signals such as semantic segmentation and depth, while remaining computationally efficient. However, deterministic regression averages over multiple plausible futures, undermining forecast accuracy by failing to capture uncertainty. To address this crucial limitation, we introduce a generative forecaster that performs autoregressive flow matching in VFM feature space. Our key insight is that generative modeling in this space requires encoding VFM features into a compact latent space suitable for diffusion. We show that this latent space preserves information more effectively than previously used PCA-based alternatives, both for forecasting and other applications, such as image generation. Our latent predictions can be easily decoded into multiple useful and interpretable output modalities: semantic segmentation, depth, surface normals, and even RGB. With matched architecture and compute, our method produces sharper and more accurate predictions than regression across all modalities. Our results suggest that stochastic conditional generation of VFM features offers a promising and scalable foundation for future world models.

We present RigAnything, a novel autoregressive transformer-based model, which makes 3D assets rig-ready by probabilistically generating joints, skeleton topologies, and assigning skinning weights in a template-free manner. Unlike most existing auto-rigging methods, which rely on predefined skeleton template and are limited to specific categories like humanoid, RigAnything approaches the rigging problem in an autoregressive manner, iteratively predicting the next joint based on the global input shape and the previous prediction. While autoregressive models are typically used to generate sequential data, RigAnything extends their application to effectively learn and represent skeletons, which are inherently tree structures. To achieve this, we organize the joints in a breadth-first search (BFS) order, enabling the skeleton to be defined as a sequence of 3D locations and the parent index. Furthermore, our model improves the accuracy of position prediction by leveraging diffusion modeling, ensuring precise and consistent placement of joints within the hierarchy. This formulation allows the autoregressive model to efficiently capture both spatial and hierarchical relationships within the skeleton. Trained end-to-end on both RigNet and Objaverse datasets, RigAnything demonstrates state-of-the-art performance across diverse object types, including humanoids, quadrupeds, marine creatures, insects, and many more, surpassing prior methods in quality, robustness, generalizability, and efficiency. Please check our website for more details: https://www.liuisabella.com/RigAnything.

The two dominant approaches to neural text generation are fully autoregressive models, using serial beam search decoding, and non-autoregressive models, using parallel decoding with no output dependencies. This work proposes an autoregressive model with sub-linear parallel time generation. Noting that conditional random fields with bounded context can be decoded in parallel, we propose an efficient cascaded decoding approach for generating high-quality output. To parameterize this cascade, we introduce a Markov transformer, a variant of the popular fully autoregressive model that allows us to simultaneously decode with specific autoregressive context cutoffs. This approach requires only a small modification from standard autoregressive training, while showing competitive accuracy/speed tradeoff compared to existing methods on five machine translation datasets.

This paper presents Randomized AutoRegressive modeling (RAR) for visual generation, which sets a new state-of-the-art performance on the image generation task while maintaining full compatibility with language modeling frameworks. The proposed RAR is simple: during a standard autoregressive training process with a next-token prediction objective, the input sequence-typically ordered in raster form-is randomly permuted into different factorization orders with a probability r, where r starts at 1 and linearly decays to 0 over the course of training. This annealing training strategy enables the model to learn to maximize the expected likelihood over all factorization orders and thus effectively improve the model's capability of modeling bidirectional contexts. Importantly, RAR preserves the integrity of the autoregressive modeling framework, ensuring full compatibility with language modeling while significantly improving performance in image generation. On the ImageNet-256 benchmark, RAR achieves an FID score of 1.48, not only surpassing prior state-of-the-art autoregressive image generators but also outperforming leading diffusion-based and masked transformer-based methods. Code and models will be made available at https://github.com/bytedance/1d-tokenizer

The rapid progress of large multimodal models has inspired efforts toward unified frameworks that couple understanding and generation. While such paradigms have shown remarkable success in 2D, extending them to 3D remains largely underexplored. Existing attempts to unify 3D tasks under a single autoregressive (AR) paradigm lead to significant performance degradation due to forced signal quantization and prohibitive training cost. Our key insight is that the essential challenge lies not in enforcing a unified autoregressive paradigm, but in enabling effective information interaction between generation and understanding while minimally compromising their inherent capabilities and leveraging pretrained models to reduce training cost. Guided by this perspective, we present the first unified framework for 3D understanding and generation that combines autoregression with diffusion. Specifically, we adopt an autoregressive next-token prediction paradigm for 3D understanding, and a continuous diffusion paradigm for 3D generation. A lightweight transformer bridges the feature space of large language models and the conditional space of 3D diffusion models, enabling effective cross-modal information exchange while preserving the priors learned by standalone models. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse 3D understanding and generation benchmarks, while also excelling in 3D editing tasks. These results highlight the potential of unified AR+diffusion models as a promising direction for building more general-purpose 3D intelligence.

Autoregressive (AR) diffusion models offer a promising framework for sequential generation tasks such as video synthesis by combining diffusion modeling with causal inference. Although they support streaming generation, existing AR diffusion methods struggle to scale efficiently. In this paper, we identify two key challenges in hour-scale real-time human animation. First, most forcing strategies propagate sample-level representations with mismatched diffusion states, causing inconsistent learning signals and unstable convergence. Second, historical representations grow unbounded and lack structure, preventing effective reuse of cached states and severely limiting inference efficiency. To address these challenges, we propose Neighbor Forcing, a diffusion-step-consistent AR formulation that propagates temporally adjacent frames as latent neighbors under the same noise condition. This design provides a distribution-aligned and stable learning signal while preserving drifting throughout the AR chain. Building upon this, we introduce a structured ConvKV memory mechanism that compresses the keys and values in causal attention into a fixed-length representation, enabling constant-memory inference and truly infinite video generation without relying on short-term motion-frame memory. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach significantly improves training convergence, hour-scale generation quality, and inference efficiency compared to existing AR diffusion methods. Numerically, LiveAct enables hour-scale real-time human animation and supports 20 FPS real-time streaming inference on as few as two NVIDIA H100 or H200 GPUs. Quantitative results demonstrate that our method attains state-of-the-art performance in lip-sync accuracy, human animation quality, and emotional expressiveness, with the lowest inference cost.

Time series forecasting is central to decision-making in domains as diverse as energy, finance, climate, and public health. In practice, forecasters face thousands of short, noisy series that vary in frequency, quality, and horizon, where the dominant cost lies not in model fitting, but in the labor-intensive preprocessing, validation, and ensembling required to obtain reliable predictions. Prevailing statistical and deep learning models are tailored to specific datasets or domains and generalize poorly. A general, domain-agnostic framework that minimizes human intervention is urgently in demand. In this paper, we introduce TimeSeriesScientist (TSci), the first LLM-driven agentic framework for general time series forecasting. The framework comprises four specialized agents: Curator performs LLM-guided diagnostics augmented by external tools that reason over data statistics to choose targeted preprocessing; Planner narrows the hypothesis space of model choice by leveraging multi-modal diagnostics and self-planning over the input; Forecaster performs model fitting and validation and, based on the results, adaptively selects the best model configuration as well as ensemble strategy to make final predictions; and Reporter synthesizes the whole process into a comprehensive, transparent report. With transparent natural-language rationales and comprehensive reports, TSci transforms the forecasting workflow into a white-box system that is both interpretable and extensible across tasks. Empirical results on eight established benchmarks demonstrate that TSci consistently outperforms both statistical and LLM-based baselines, reducing forecast error by an average of 10.4% and 38.2%, respectively. Moreover, TSci produces a clear and rigorous report that makes the forecasting workflow more transparent and interpretable.

Autoregressive (AR) transformers have emerged as a powerful paradigm for visual generation, largely due to their scalability, computational efficiency and unified architecture with language and vision. Among them, next scale prediction Visual Autoregressive Generation (VAR) has recently demonstrated remarkable performance, even surpassing diffusion-based models. In this work, we revisit VAR and uncover a theoretical insight: when equipped with a Markovian attention mask, VAR is mathematically equivalent to a discrete diffusion. We term this reinterpretation as Scalable Visual Refinement with Discrete Diffusion (SRDD), establishing a principled bridge between AR transformers and diffusion models. Leveraging this new perspective, we show how one can directly import the advantages of diffusion such as iterative refinement and reduce architectural inefficiencies into VAR, yielding faster convergence, lower inference cost, and improved zero-shot reconstruction. Across multiple datasets, we show that the diffusion based perspective of VAR leads to consistent gains in efficiency and generation.

Foundation models of time series have not been fully developed due to the limited availability of time series corpora and the underexploration of scalable pre-training. Based on the similar sequential formulation of time series and natural language, increasing research demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging large language models (LLM) for time series. Nevertheless, the inherent autoregressive property and decoder-only architecture of LLMs have not been fully considered, resulting in insufficient utilization of LLM abilities. To fully revitalize the general-purpose token transition and multi-step generation capability of large language models, we propose AutoTimes to repurpose LLMs as autoregressive time series forecasters, which projects time series into the embedding space of language tokens and autoregressively generates future predictions with arbitrary lengths. Compatible with any decoder-only LLMs, the consequent forecaster exhibits the flexibility of the lookback length and scalability with larger LLMs. Further, we formulate time series as prompts, extending the context for prediction beyond the lookback window, termed in-context forecasting. By introducing LLM-embedded textual timestamps, AutoTimes can utilize chronological information to align multivariate time series. Empirically, AutoTimes achieves state-of-the-art with 0.1% trainable parameters and over 5times training/inference speedup compared to advanced LLM-based forecasters. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/AutoTimes.

Autoregressive (AR) diffusion enables streaming, interactive long-video generation by producing frames causally, yet maintaining coherence over minute-scale horizons remains challenging due to accumulated errors, motion drift, and content repetition. We approach this problem from a memory perspective, treating video synthesis as a recurrent dynamical process that requires coordinated short- and long-term context. We propose VideoSSM, a Long Video Model that unifies AR diffusion with a hybrid state-space memory. The state-space model (SSM) serves as an evolving global memory of scene dynamics across the entire sequence, while a context window provides local memory for motion cues and fine details. This hybrid design preserves global consistency without frozen, repetitive patterns, supports prompt-adaptive interaction, and scales in linear time with sequence length. Experiments on short- and long-range benchmarks demonstrate state-of-the-art temporal consistency and motion stability among autoregressive video generator especially at minute-scale horizons, enabling content diversity and interactive prompt-based control, thereby establishing a scalable, memory-aware framework for long video generation.

Existing autoregressive (AR) image generative models use a token-by-token generation schema. That is, they predict a per-token probability distribution and sample the next token from that distribution. The main challenge is how to model the complex distribution of high-dimensional tokens. Previous methods either are too simplistic to fit the distribution or result in slow generation speed. Instead of fitting the distribution of the whole tokens, we explore using a AR model to generate each token in a feature-by-feature way, i.e., taking the generated features as input and generating the next feature. Based on that, we propose ARINAR (AR-in-AR), a bi-level AR model. The outer AR layer take previous tokens as input, predicts a condition vector z for the next token. The inner layer, conditional on z, generates features of the next token autoregressively. In this way, the inner layer only needs to model the distribution of a single feature, for example, using a simple Gaussian Mixture Model. On the ImageNet 256x256 image generation task, ARINAR-B with 213M parameters achieves an FID of 2.75, which is comparable to the state-of-the-art MAR-B model (FID=2.31), while five times faster than the latter.

Conventional wisdom suggests that autoregressive models are used to process discrete data. When applied to continuous modalities such as visual data, Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR) typically resorts to quantization-based approaches to cast the data into a discrete space, which can introduce significant information loss. To tackle this issue, we introduce a Continuous VAR framework that enables direct visual autoregressive generation without vector quantization. The underlying theoretical foundation is strictly proper scoring rules, which provide powerful statistical tools capable of evaluating how well a generative model approximates the true distribution. Within this framework, all we need is to select a strictly proper score and set it as the training objective to optimize. We primarily explore a class of training objectives based on the energy score, which is likelihood-free and thus overcomes the difficulty of making probabilistic predictions in the continuous space. Previous efforts on continuous autoregressive generation, such as GIVT and diffusion loss, can also be derived from our framework using other strictly proper scores. Source code: https://github.com/shaochenze/EAR.

In many real-world settings, agents must learn from an offline dataset gathered by some prior behavior policy. Such a setting naturally leads to distribution shift between the behavior policy and the target policy being trained - requiring policy conservatism to avoid instability and overestimation bias. Autoregressive world models offer a different solution to this by generating synthetic, on-policy experience. However, in practice, model rollouts must be severely truncated to avoid compounding error. As an alternative, we propose policy-guided diffusion. Our method uses diffusion models to generate entire trajectories under the behavior distribution, applying guidance from the target policy to move synthetic experience further on-policy. We show that policy-guided diffusion models a regularized form of the target distribution that balances action likelihood under both the target and behavior policies, leading to plausible trajectories with high target policy probability, while retaining a lower dynamics error than an offline world model baseline. Using synthetic experience from policy-guided diffusion as a drop-in substitute for real data, we demonstrate significant improvements in performance across a range of standard offline reinforcement learning algorithms and environments. Our approach provides an effective alternative to autoregressive offline world models, opening the door to the controllable generation of synthetic training data.

Achieving human-like driving behaviors in complex open-world environments is a critical challenge in autonomous driving. Contemporary learning-based planning approaches such as imitation learning methods often struggle to balance competing objectives and lack of safety assurance,due to limited adaptability and inadequacy in learning complex multi-modal behaviors commonly exhibited in human planning, not to mention their strong reliance on the fallback strategy with predefined rules. We propose a novel transformer-based Diffusion Planner for closed-loop planning, which can effectively model multi-modal driving behavior and ensure trajectory quality without any rule-based refinement. Our model supports joint modeling of both prediction and planning tasks under the same architecture, enabling cooperative behaviors between vehicles. Moreover, by learning the gradient of the trajectory score function and employing a flexible classifier guidance mechanism, Diffusion Planner effectively achieves safe and adaptable planning behaviors. Evaluations on the large-scale real-world autonomous planning benchmark nuPlan and our newly collected 200-hour delivery-vehicle driving dataset demonstrate that Diffusion Planner achieves state-of-the-art closed-loop performance with robust transferability in diverse driving styles.

Autoregressive (AR) Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant success across numerous tasks. However, the AR modeling paradigm presents certain limitations; for instance, contemporary autoregressive LLMs are trained to generate one token at a time, which can result in noticeable latency. Recent advances have indicated that search and repeated sampling can enhance performance in various applications, such as theorem proving, code generation, and alignment, by utilizing greater computational resources during inference. In this study, we demonstrate that diffusion language models are capable of generating at least 32 tokens simultaneously, while exceeding the performance of AR models in text quality and on the LAMBADA natural language understanding benchmark. This outcome is achieved through a novel distillation method for discrete diffusion models, which reduces the number of inference steps by a factor of 32-64. Practically, our models, even without caching, can generate tokens at a rate that is up to 8 times faster than AR models employing KV caching, and we anticipate further improvements with the inclusion of caching. Moreover, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach for diffusion language models with up to 860M parameters.

Recent advances in diffusion models have brought remarkable visual fidelity to instruction-guided image editing. However, their global denoising process inherently entangles the edited region with the entire image context, leading to unintended spurious modifications and compromised adherence to editing instructions. In contrast, autoregressive models offer a distinct paradigm by formulating image synthesis as a sequential process over discrete visual tokens. Their causal and compositional mechanism naturally circumvents the adherence challenges of diffusion-based methods. In this paper, we present VAREdit, a visual autoregressive (VAR) framework that reframes image editing as a next-scale prediction problem. Conditioned on source image features and text instructions, VAREdit generates multi-scale target features to achieve precise edits. A core challenge in this paradigm is how to effectively condition the source image tokens. We observe that finest-scale source features cannot effectively guide the prediction of coarser target features. To bridge this gap, we introduce a Scale-Aligned Reference (SAR) module, which injects scale-matched conditioning information into the first self-attention layer. VAREdit demonstrates significant advancements in both editing adherence and efficiency. On standard benchmarks, it outperforms leading diffusion-based methods by 30\%+ higher GPT-Balance score. Moreover, it completes a 512times512 editing in 1.2 seconds, making it 2.2times faster than the similarly sized UltraEdit. The models are available at https://github.com/HiDream-ai/VAREdit.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Autoregressive (AR) visual generation relies on tokenizers to map images to and from discrete sequences. However, tokenizers are trained to reconstruct clean images from ground-truth tokens, while AR generators are optimized only for token likelihood. This misalignment leads to generated token sequences that may decode into low-quality images, without direct supervision from the pixel space. We propose VA-π, a lightweight post-training framework that directly optimizes AR models with a principled pixel-space objective. VA-π formulates the generator-tokenizer alignment as a variational optimization, deriving an evidence lower bound (ELBO) that unifies pixel reconstruction and autoregressive modeling. To optimize under the discrete token space, VA-π introduces a reinforcement-based alignment strategy that treats the AR generator as a policy, uses pixel-space reconstruction quality as its intrinsic reward. The reward is measured by how well the predicted token sequences can reconstruct the original image under teacher forcing, giving the model direct pixel-level guidance without expensive free-running sampling. The regularization term of the ELBO serves as a natural regularizer, maintaining distributional consistency of tokens. VA-π enables rapid adaptation of existing AR generators, without neither tokenizer retraining nor external reward models. With only 1% ImageNet-1K data and 25 minutes of tuning, it reduces FID from 14.36 to 7.65 and improves IS from 86.55 to 116.70 on LlamaGen-XXL, while also yielding notable gains in the text-to-image task on GenEval for both visual generation model (LlamaGen: from 0.306 to 0.339) and unified multi-modal model (Janus-Pro: from 0.725 to 0.744). Code is available at https://github.com/Lil-Shake/VA-Pi.

Recent successes in autoregressive (AR) generation models, such as the GPT series in natural language processing, have motivated efforts to replicate this success in visual tasks. Some works attempt to extend this approach to autonomous driving by building video-based world models capable of generating realistic future video sequences and predicting ego states. However, prior works tend to produce unsatisfactory results, as the classic GPT framework is designed to handle 1D contextual information, such as text, and lacks the inherent ability to model the spatial and temporal dynamics essential for video generation. In this paper, we present DrivingWorld, a GPT-style world model for autonomous driving, featuring several spatial-temporal fusion mechanisms. This design enables effective modeling of both spatial and temporal dynamics, facilitating high-fidelity, long-duration video generation. Specifically, we propose a next-state prediction strategy to model temporal coherence between consecutive frames and apply a next-token prediction strategy to capture spatial information within each frame. To further enhance generalization ability, we propose a novel masking strategy and reweighting strategy for token prediction to mitigate long-term drifting issues and enable precise control. Our work demonstrates the ability to produce high-fidelity and consistent video clips of over 40 seconds in duration, which is over 2 times longer than state-of-the-art driving world models. Experiments show that, in contrast to prior works, our method achieves superior visual quality and significantly more accurate controllable future video generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/YvanYin/DrivingWorld.

The autoregressive world model exhibits robust generalization capabilities in vectorized scene understanding but encounters difficulties in deriving actions due to insufficient uncertainty modeling and self-delusion. In this paper, we explore the feasibility of deriving decisions from an autoregressive world model by addressing these challenges through the formulation of multiple probabilistic hypotheses. We propose LatentDriver, a framework models the environment's next states and the ego vehicle's possible actions as a mixture distribution, from which a deterministic control signal is then derived. By incorporating mixture modeling, the stochastic nature of decisionmaking is captured. Additionally, the self-delusion problem is mitigated by providing intermediate actions sampled from a distribution to the world model. Experimental results on the recently released close-loop benchmark Waymax demonstrate that LatentDriver surpasses state-of-the-art reinforcement learning and imitation learning methods, achieving expert-level performance. The code and models will be made available at https://github.com/Sephirex-X/LatentDriver.

We present Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR), a new generation paradigm that redefines the autoregressive learning on images as coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" or "next-resolution prediction", diverging from the standard raster-scan "next-token prediction". This simple, intuitive methodology allows autoregressive (AR) transformers to learn visual distributions fast and generalize well: VAR, for the first time, makes AR models surpass diffusion transformers in image generation. On ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, VAR significantly improve AR baseline by improving Frechet inception distance (FID) from 18.65 to 1.80, inception score (IS) from 80.4 to 356.4, with around 20x faster inference speed. It is also empirically verified that VAR outperforms the Diffusion Transformer (DiT) in multiple dimensions including image quality, inference speed, data efficiency, and scalability. Scaling up VAR models exhibits clear power-law scaling laws similar to those observed in LLMs, with linear correlation coefficients near -0.998 as solid evidence. VAR further showcases zero-shot generalization ability in downstream tasks including image in-painting, out-painting, and editing. These results suggest VAR has initially emulated the two important properties of LLMs: Scaling Laws and zero-shot task generalization. We have released all models and codes to promote the exploration of AR/VAR models for visual generation and unified learning.

Streaming autoregressive (AR) video generators combined with few-step distillation achieve low-latency, high-quality synthesis, yet remain difficult to align via reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). Existing SDE-based GRPO methods face challenges in this setting: few-step ODEs and consistency model samplers deviate from standard flow-matching ODEs, and their short, low-stochasticity trajectories are highly sensitive to initialization noise, rendering intermediate SDE exploration ineffective. We propose AR-CoPO (AutoRegressive Contrastive Policy Optimization), a framework that adapts the Neighbor GRPO contrastive perspective to streaming AR generation. AR-CoPO introduces chunk-level alignment via a forking mechanism that constructs neighborhood candidates at a randomly selected chunk, assigns sequence-level rewards, and performs localized GRPO updates. We further propose a semi-on-policy training strategy that complements on-policy exploration with exploitation over a replay buffer of reference rollouts, improving generation quality across domains. Experiments on Self-Forcing demonstrate that AR-CoPO improves both out-of-domain generalization and in-domain human preference alignment over the baseline, providing evidence of genuine alignment rather than reward hacking.

Autoregressive (AR) models have long dominated the landscape of large language models, driving progress across a wide range of tasks. Recently, diffusion-based language models have emerged as a promising alternative, though their advantages over AR models remain underexplored. In this paper, we systematically study masked diffusion models in data-constrained settings-where training involves repeated passes over limited data-and find that they significantly outperform AR models when compute is abundant but data is scarce. Diffusion models make better use of repeated data, achieving lower validation loss and superior downstream performance. We interpret this advantage as implicit data augmentation: masked diffusion exposes the model to a diverse distribution of token orderings and prediction tasks, unlike AR's fixed left-to-right factorization. We find new scaling laws for diffusion models and derive a closed-form expression for the critical compute threshold at which diffusion begins to outperform AR. These results suggest that when data, not compute, is the bottleneck, diffusion models offer a compelling alternative to the standard AR paradigm. Our code is available at: https://diffusion-scaling.github.io.

Recent advances in diffusion models have improved controllable streetscape generation and supported downstream perception and planning tasks. However, challenges remain in accurately modeling driving scenes and generating long videos. To alleviate these issues, we propose DreamForge, an advanced diffusion-based autoregressive video generation model tailored for 3D-controllable long-term generation. To enhance the lane and foreground generation, we introduce perspective guidance and integrate object-wise position encoding to incorporate local 3D correlation and improve foreground object modeling. We also propose motion-aware temporal attention to capture motion cues and appearance changes in videos. By leveraging motion frames and an autoregressive generation paradigm,we can autoregressively generate long videos (over 200 frames) using a model trained in short sequences, achieving superior quality compared to the baseline in 16-frame video evaluations. Finally, we integrate our method with the realistic simulator DriveArena to provide more reliable open-loop and closed-loop evaluations for vision-based driving agents. Project Page: https://pjlab-adg.github.io/DriveArena/dreamforge.

High-fidelity 3D meshes can be tokenized into one-dimension (1D) sequences and directly modeled using autoregressive approaches for faces and vertices. However, existing methods suffer from insufficient resource utilization, resulting in slow inference and the ability to handle only small-scale sequences, which severely constrains the expressible structural details. We introduce the Latent Autoregressive Network (LANE), which incorporates compact autoregressive dependencies in the generation process, achieving a 6times improvement in maximum generatable sequence length compared to existing methods. To further accelerate inference, we propose the Adaptive Computation Graph Reconfiguration (AdaGraph) strategy, which effectively overcomes the efficiency bottleneck of traditional serial inference through spatiotemporal decoupling in the generation process. Experimental validation demonstrates that LANE achieves superior performance across generation speed, structural detail, and geometric consistency, providing an effective solution for high-quality 3D mesh generation.

Real-time talking avatar generation requires low latency and minute-level temporal stability. Autoregressive (AR) forcing enables streaming inference but suffers from exposure bias, which causes errors to accumulate and become irreversible over long rollouts. In contrast, full-sequence diffusion transformers mitigate drift but remain computationally prohibitive for real-time long-form synthesis. We present AvatarForcing, a one-step streaming diffusion framework that denoises a fixed local-future window with heterogeneous noise levels and emits one clean block per step under constant per-step cost. To stabilize unbounded streams, the method introduces dual-anchor temporal forcing: a style anchor that re-indexes RoPE to maintain a fixed relative position with respect to the active window and applies anchor-audio zero-padding, and a temporal anchor that reuses recently emitted clean blocks to ensure smooth transitions. Real-time one-step inference is enabled by two-stage streaming distillation with offline ODE backfill and distribution matching. Experiments on standard benchmarks and a new 400-video long-form benchmark show strong visual quality and lip synchronization at 34 ms/frame using a 1.3B-parameter student model for realtime streaming. Our page is available at: https://cuiliyuan121.github.io/AvatarForcing/

Autoregressive models have demonstrated remarkable success in sequential data generation, particularly in NLP, but their extension to continuous-domain image generation presents significant challenges. Recent work, the masked autoregressive model (MAR), bypasses quantization by modeling per-token distributions in continuous spaces using a diffusion head but suffers from slow inference due to the high computational cost of the iterative denoising process. To address this, we propose the Fast AutoRegressive model (FAR), a novel framework that replaces MAR's diffusion head with a lightweight shortcut head, enabling efficient few-step sampling while preserving autoregressive principles. Additionally, FAR seamlessly integrates with causal Transformers, extending them from discrete to continuous token generation without requiring architectural modifications. Experiments demonstrate that FAR achieves 2.3times faster inference than MAR while maintaining competitive FID and IS scores. This work establishes the first efficient autoregressive paradigm for high-fidelity continuous-space image generation, bridging the critical gap between quality and scalability in visual autoregressive modeling.

Trajectory prediction models often fail in real-world automated driving due to distributional shifts between training and test conditions. Such distributional shifts, whether behavioural or environmental, pose a critical risk by causing the model to make incorrect forecasts in unfamiliar situations. We propose a self-supervised method that trains a decoder in a post-hoc fashion on the self-supervised task of forecasting the second half of observed trajectories from the first half. The L2 norm of the gradient of this forecasting loss with respect to the decoder's final layer defines a score to identify distribution shifts. Our approach, first, does not affect the trajectory prediction model, ensuring no interference with original prediction performance and second, demonstrates substantial improvements on distribution shift detection for trajectory prediction on the Shifts and Argoverse datasets. Moreover, we show that this method can also be used to early detect collisions of a deep Q-Network motion planner in the Highway simulator. Source code is available at https://github.com/Michedev/forecasting-the-past.

In reasoning about sequential events it is natural to pose probabilistic queries such as "when will event A occur next" or "what is the probability of A occurring before B", with applications in areas such as user modeling, medicine, and finance. However, with machine learning shifting towards neural autoregressive models such as RNNs and transformers, probabilistic querying has been largely restricted to simple cases such as next-event prediction. This is in part due to the fact that future querying involves marginalization over large path spaces, which is not straightforward to do efficiently in such models. In this paper we introduce a general typology for predictive queries in neural autoregressive sequence models and show that such queries can be systematically represented by sets of elementary building blocks. We leverage this typology to develop new query estimation methods based on beam search, importance sampling, and hybrids. Across four large-scale sequence datasets from different application domains, as well as for the GPT-2 language model, we demonstrate the ability to make query answering tractable for arbitrary queries in exponentially-large predictive path-spaces, and find clear differences in cost-accuracy tradeoffs between search and sampling methods.

Self-supervised learning has garnered increasing attention in time series analysis for benefiting various downstream tasks and reducing reliance on labeled data. Despite its effectiveness, existing methods often struggle to comprehensively capture both long-term dynamic evolution and subtle local patterns in a unified manner. In this work, we propose TimeDART, a novel self-supervised time series pre-training framework that unifies two powerful generative paradigms to learn more transferable representations. Specifically, we first employ a causal Transformer encoder, accompanied by a patch-based embedding strategy, to model the evolving trends from left to right. Building on this global modeling, we further introduce a denoising diffusion process to capture fine-grained local patterns through forward diffusion and reverse denoising. Finally, we optimize the model in an autoregressive manner. As a result, TimeDART effectively accounts for both global and local sequence features in a coherent way. We conduct extensive experiments on public datasets for time series forecasting and classification. The experimental results demonstrate that TimeDART consistently outperforms previous compared methods, validating the effectiveness of our approach. Our code is available at https://github.com/Melmaphother/TimeDART.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is typically concerned with estimating stationary policies or single-step models, leveraging the Markov property to factorize problems in time. However, we can also view RL as a generic sequence modeling problem, with the goal being to produce a sequence of actions that leads to a sequence of high rewards. Viewed in this way, it is tempting to consider whether high-capacity sequence prediction models that work well in other domains, such as natural-language processing, can also provide effective solutions to the RL problem. To this end, we explore how RL can be tackled with the tools of sequence modeling, using a Transformer architecture to model distributions over trajectories and repurposing beam search as a planning algorithm. Framing RL as sequence modeling problem simplifies a range of design decisions, allowing us to dispense with many of the components common in offline RL algorithms. We demonstrate the flexibility of this approach across long-horizon dynamics prediction, imitation learning, goal-conditioned RL, and offline RL. Further, we show that this approach can be combined with existing model-free algorithms to yield a state-of-the-art planner in sparse-reward, long-horizon tasks.

Autoregressive models are typically applied to sequences of discrete tokens, but recent research indicates that generating sequences of continuous embeddings in an autoregressive manner is also feasible. However, such Continuous Autoregressive Models (CAMs) can suffer from a decline in generation quality over extended sequences due to error accumulation during inference. We introduce a novel method to address this issue by injecting random noise into the input embeddings during training. This procedure makes the model robust against varying error levels at inference. We further reduce error accumulation through an inference procedure that introduces low-level noise. Experiments on musical audio generation show that CAM substantially outperforms existing autoregressive and non-autoregressive approaches while preserving audio quality over extended sequences. This work paves the way for generating continuous embeddings in a purely autoregressive setting, opening new possibilities for real-time and interactive generative applications.

There has been a lot of recent interest in designing neural network models to estimate a distribution from a set of examples. We introduce a simple modification for autoencoder neural networks that yields powerful generative models. Our method masks the autoencoder's parameters to respect autoregressive constraints: each input is reconstructed only from previous inputs in a given ordering. Constrained this way, the autoencoder outputs can be interpreted as a set of conditional probabilities, and their product, the full joint probability. We can also train a single network that can decompose the joint probability in multiple different orderings. Our simple framework can be applied to multiple architectures, including deep ones. Vectorized implementations, such as on GPUs, are simple and fast. Experiments demonstrate that this approach is competitive with state-of-the-art tractable distribution estimators. At test time, the method is significantly faster and scales better than other autoregressive estimators.

Self-supervised learning has seen great success recently in unsupervised representation learning, enabling breakthroughs in natural language and image processing. However, these methods often rely on autoregressive and masked modeling, which aim to reproduce masked information in the input, which can be vulnerable to the presence of noise or confounding variables. To address this problem, Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPA) has been introduced with the aim to perform self-supervised learning in the latent space. To leverage these advancements in the domain of time series, we introduce Time Series JEPA (TS-JEPA), an architecture specifically adapted for time series representation learning. We validate TS-JEPA on both classification and forecasting, showing that it can match or surpass current state-of-the-art baselines on different standard datasets. Notably, our approach demonstrates a strong performance balance across diverse tasks, indicating its potential as a robust foundation for learning general representations. Thus, this work lays the groundwork for developing future time series foundation models based on Joint Embedding.

AI agents built on large language models (LLMs) hold enormous promise, but current practice focuses on a one-task-one-agent approach, which not only falls short of scalability and generality, but also suffers from the fundamental limitations of autoregressive LLMs. On the other hand, humans are general agents who reason by mentally simulating the outcomes of their actions and plans. Moving towards a more general and powerful AI agent, we introduce SimuRA, a goal-oriented architecture for generalized agentic reasoning. Based on a principled formulation of optimal agent in any environment, \modelname overcomes the limitations of autoregressive reasoning by introducing a world model for planning via simulation. The generalized world model is implemented using LLM, which can flexibly plan in a wide range of environments using the concept-rich latent space of natural language. Experiments on difficult web browsing tasks show that \modelname improves the success of flight search from 0\% to 32.2\%. World-model-based planning, in particular, shows consistent advantage of up to 124\% over autoregressive planning, demonstrating the advantage of world model simulation as a reasoning paradigm. We are excited about the possibility for training a single, general agent model based on LLMs that can act superintelligently in all environments. To start, we make SimuRA, a web-browsing agent built on \modelname with pretrained LLMs, available as a research demo for public testing.

Diffusion models have shown strong competitiveness in offline reinforcement learning tasks by formulating decision-making as sequential generation. However, the practicality of these methods is limited due to the lengthy inference processes they require. In this paper, we address this problem by decomposing the sampling process of diffusion models into two decoupled subprocesses: 1) generating a feasible trajectory, which is a time-consuming process, and 2) optimizing the trajectory. With this decomposition approach, we are able to partially separate efficiency and quality factors, enabling us to simultaneously gain efficiency advantages and ensure quality assurance. We propose the Trajectory Diffuser, which utilizes a faster autoregressive model to handle the generation of feasible trajectories while retaining the trajectory optimization process of diffusion models. This allows us to achieve more efficient planning without sacrificing capability. To evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the Trajectory Diffuser, we conduct experiments on the D4RL benchmarks. The results demonstrate that our method achieves it 3-it 10 times faster inference speed compared to previous sequence modeling methods, while also outperforming them in terms of overall performance. https://github.com/RenMing-Huang/TrajectoryDiffuser Keywords: Reinforcement Learning and Efficient Planning and Diffusion Model

This work presents SimpleAR, a vanilla autoregressive visual generation framework without complex architecure modifications. Through careful exploration of training and inference optimization, we demonstrate that: 1) with only 0.5B parameters, our model can generate 1024x1024 resolution images with high fidelity, and achieve competitive results on challenging text-to-image benchmarks, e.g., 0.59 on GenEval and 79.66 on DPG; 2) both supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) training could lead to significant improvements on generation aesthectics and prompt alignment; and 3) when optimized with inference acceleraton techniques like vLLM, the time for SimpleAR to generate an 1024x1024 image could be reduced to around 14 seconds. By sharing these findings and open-sourcing the code, we hope to reveal the potential of autoregressive visual generation and encourage more participation in this research field. Code is available at https://github.com/wdrink/SimpleAR.

We introduce AutoGluon-TimeSeries - an open-source AutoML library for probabilistic time series forecasting. Focused on ease of use and robustness, AutoGluon-TimeSeries enables users to generate accurate point and quantile forecasts with just 3 lines of Python code. Built on the design philosophy of AutoGluon, AutoGluon-TimeSeries leverages ensembles of diverse forecasting models to deliver high accuracy within a short training time. AutoGluon-TimeSeries combines both conventional statistical models, machine-learning based forecasting approaches, and ensembling techniques. In our evaluation on 29 benchmark datasets, AutoGluon-TimeSeries demonstrates strong empirical performance, outperforming a range of forecasting methods in terms of both point and quantile forecast accuracy, and often even improving upon the best-in-hindsight combination of prior methods.

Autoregressive models have emerged as a powerful generative paradigm for visual generation. The current de-facto standard of next token prediction commonly operates over a single-scale sequence of dense image tokens, and is incapable of utilizing global context especially for early tokens prediction. In this paper, we introduce a new autoregressive design to model a hierarchy from a few low-resolution image tokens to the typical dense image tokens, and delve into a thorough hierarchical dependency across multi-scale image tokens. Technically, we present a Hierarchical Masked Autoregressive models (Hi-MAR) that pivot on low-resolution image tokens to trigger hierarchical autoregressive modeling in a multi-phase manner. Hi-MAR learns to predict a few image tokens in low resolution, functioning as intermediary pivots to reflect global structure, in the first phase. Such pivots act as the additional guidance to strengthen the next autoregressive modeling phase by shaping global structural awareness of typical dense image tokens. A new Diffusion Transformer head is further devised to amplify the global context among all tokens for mask token prediction. Extensive evaluations on both class-conditional and text-to-image generation tasks demonstrate that Hi-MAR outperforms typical AR baselines, while requiring fewer computational costs. Code is available at https://github.com/HiDream-ai/himar.

Recent advancements underscore the significant role of Reinforcement Learning (RL) in enhancing the Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Two prominent RL algorithms, Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) and Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), are central to these developments, showcasing different pros and cons. Autoregressive image generation, also interpretable as a sequential CoT reasoning process, presents unique challenges distinct from LLM-based CoT reasoning. These encompass ensuring text-image consistency, improving image aesthetic quality, and designing sophisticated reward models, rather than relying on simpler rule-based rewards. While recent efforts have extended RL to this domain, these explorations typically lack an in-depth analysis of the domain-specific challenges and the characteristics of different RL strategies. To bridge this gap, we provide the first comprehensive investigation of the GRPO and DPO algorithms in autoregressive image generation, evaluating their in-domain performance and out-of-domain generalization, while scrutinizing the impact of different reward models on their respective capabilities. Our findings reveal that GRPO and DPO exhibit distinct advantages, and crucially, that reward models possessing stronger intrinsic generalization capabilities potentially enhance the generalization potential of the applied RL algorithms. Furthermore, we systematically explore three prevalent scaling strategies to enhance both their in-domain and out-of-domain proficiency, deriving unique insights into efficiently scaling performance for each paradigm. We hope our study paves a new path for inspiring future work on developing more effective RL algorithms to achieve robust CoT reasoning in the realm of autoregressive image generation. Code is released at https://github.com/ZiyuGuo99/Image-Generation-CoT

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

Autoregressive point cloud generation has long lagged behind diffusion-based approaches in quality. The performance gap stems from the fact that autoregressive models impose an artificial ordering on inherently unordered point sets, forcing shape generation to proceed as a sequence of local predictions. This sequential bias emphasizes short-range continuity but undermines the model's capacity to capture long-range dependencies, hindering its ability to enforce global structural properties such as symmetry, consistent topology, and large-scale geometric regularities. Inspired by the level-of-detail (LOD) principle in shape modeling, we propose PointNSP, a coarse-to-fine generative framework that preserves global shape structure at low resolutions and progressively refines fine-grained geometry at higher scales through a next-scale prediction paradigm. This multi-scale factorization aligns the autoregressive objective with the permutation-invariant nature of point sets, enabling rich intra-scale interactions while avoiding brittle fixed orderings. Experiments on ShapeNet show that PointNSP establishes state-of-the-art (SOTA) generation quality for the first time within the autoregressive paradigm. In addition, it surpasses strong diffusion-based baselines in parameter, training, and inference efficiency. Finally, in dense generation with 8,192 points, PointNSP's advantages become even more pronounced, underscoring its scalability potential.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) has emerged as a promising approach in image generation, offering competitive potential and performance comparable to diffusion-based models. However, current AR-based visual generation models require substantial computational resources, limiting their applicability on resource-constrained devices. To address this issue, we conducted analysis and identified significant redundancy in three dimensions of the VAR model: (1) the attention map, (2) the attention outputs when using classifier free guidance, and (3) the data precision. Correspondingly, we proposed efficient attention mechanism and low-bit quantization method to enhance the efficiency of VAR models while maintaining performance. With negligible performance lost (less than 0.056 FID increase), we could achieve 85.2% reduction in attention computation, 50% reduction in overall memory and 1.5x latency reduction. To ensure deployment feasibility, we developed efficient training-free compression techniques and analyze the deployment feasibility and efficiency gain of each technique.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) modeling departs from the next-token prediction paradigm of traditional Autoregressive (AR) models through next-scale prediction, enabling high-quality image generation. However, the VAR paradigm suffers from sharply increased computational complexity and running time at large-scale steps. Although existing acceleration methods reduce runtime for large-scale steps, but rely on manual step selection and overlook the varying importance of different stages in the generation process. To address this challenge, we present StageVAR, a systematic study and stage-aware acceleration framework for VAR models. Our analysis shows that early steps are critical for preserving semantic and structural consistency and should remain intact, while later steps mainly refine details and can be pruned or approximated for acceleration. Building on these insights, StageVAR introduces a plug-and-play acceleration strategy that exploits semantic irrelevance and low-rank properties in late-stage computations, without requiring additional training. Our proposed StageVAR achieves up to 3.4x speedup with only a 0.01 drop on GenEval and a 0.26 decrease on DPG, consistently outperforming existing acceleration baselines. These results highlight stage-aware design as a powerful principle for efficient visual autoregressive image generation.

Most recent advances in 3D generative modeling rely on diffusion or flow-matching formulations. We instead explore a fully autoregressive alternative and introduce GaussianGPT, a transformer-based model that directly generates 3D Gaussians via next-token prediction, thus facilitating full 3D scene generation. We first compress Gaussian primitives into a discrete latent grid using a sparse 3D convolutional autoencoder with vector quantization. The resulting tokens are serialized and modeled using a causal transformer with 3D rotary positional embedding, enabling sequential generation of spatial structure and appearance. Unlike diffusion-based methods that refine scenes holistically, our formulation constructs scenes step-by-step, naturally supporting completion, outpainting, controllable sampling via temperature, and flexible generation horizons. This formulation leverages the compositional inductive biases and scalability of autoregressive modeling while operating on explicit representations compatible with modern neural rendering pipelines, positioning autoregressive transformers as a complementary paradigm for controllable and context-aware 3D generation.

Inspired by the success of reinforcement learning (RL) in refining large language models (LLMs), we propose AR-GRPO, an approach to integrate online RL training into autoregressive (AR) image generation models. We adapt the Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) algorithm to refine the vanilla autoregressive models' outputs by carefully designed reward functions that evaluate generated images across multiple quality dimensions, including perceptual quality, realism, and semantic fidelity. We conduct comprehensive experiments on both class-conditional (i.e., class-to-image) and text-conditional (i.e., text-to-image) image generation tasks, demonstrating that our RL-enhanced framework significantly improves both the image quality and human preference of generated images compared to the standard AR baselines. Our results show consistent improvements across various evaluation metrics, establishing the viability of RL-based optimization for AR image generation and opening new avenues for controllable and high-quality image synthesis. The source codes and models are available at: https://github.com/Kwai-Klear/AR-GRPO.

Multivariate Time Series forecasting has been an increasingly popular topic in various applications and scenarios. Recently, contrastive learning and Transformer-based models have achieved good performance in many long-term series forecasting tasks. However, there are still several issues in existing methods. First, the training paradigm of contrastive learning and downstream prediction tasks are inconsistent, leading to inaccurate prediction results. Second, existing Transformer-based models which resort to similar patterns in historical time series data for predicting future values generally induce severe distribution shift problems, and do not fully leverage the sequence information compared to self-supervised methods. To address these issues, we propose a novel framework named Ti-MAE, in which the input time series are assumed to follow an integrate distribution. In detail, Ti-MAE randomly masks out embedded time series data and learns an autoencoder to reconstruct them at the point-level. Ti-MAE adopts mask modeling (rather than contrastive learning) as the auxiliary task and bridges the connection between existing representation learning and generative Transformer-based methods, reducing the difference between upstream and downstream forecasting tasks while maintaining the utilization of original time series data. Experiments on several public real-world datasets demonstrate that our framework of masked autoencoding could learn strong representations directly from the raw data, yielding better performance in time series forecasting and classification tasks.

Autoregressive (AR) models are promising for image generation, yet continuous-token AR variants often trail latent diffusion and masked-generation models. The core issue is heterogeneous variance in VAE latents, which is amplified during AR decoding, especially under classifier-free guidance (CFG), and can cause variance collapse. We propose SphereAR to address this issue. Its core design is to constrain all AR inputs and outputs -- including after CFG -- to lie on a fixed-radius hypersphere (constant ell_2 norm), leveraging hyperspherical VAEs. Our theoretical analysis shows that hyperspherical constraint removes the scale component (the primary cause of variance collapse), thereby stabilizing AR decoding. Empirically, on ImageNet generation, SphereAR-H (943M) sets a new state of the art for AR models, achieving FID 1.34. Even at smaller scales, SphereAR-L (479M) reaches FID 1.54 and SphereAR-B (208M) reaches 1.92, matching or surpassing much larger baselines such as MAR-H (943M, 1.55) and VAR-d30 (2B, 1.92). To our knowledge, this is the first time a pure next-token AR image generator with raster order surpasses diffusion and masked-generation models at comparable parameter scales.

Data-driven modelling and synthesis of motion is an active research area with applications that include animation, games, and social robotics. This paper introduces a new class of probabilistic, generative, and controllable motion-data models based on normalising flows. Models of this kind can describe highly complex distributions, yet can be trained efficiently using exact maximum likelihood, unlike GANs or VAEs. Our proposed model is autoregressive and uses LSTMs to enable arbitrarily long time-dependencies. Importantly, is is also causal, meaning that each pose in the output sequence is generated without access to poses or control inputs from future time steps; this absence of algorithmic latency is important for interactive applications with real-time motion control. The approach can in principle be applied to any type of motion since it does not make restrictive, task-specific assumptions regarding the motion or the character morphology. We evaluate the models on motion-capture datasets of human and quadruped locomotion. Objective and subjective results show that randomly-sampled motion from the proposed method outperforms task-agnostic baselines and attains a motion quality close to recorded motion capture.

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

Recent studies have demonstrated the importance of high-quality visual representations in image generation and have highlighted the limitations of generative models in image understanding. As a generative paradigm originally designed for natural language, autoregressive models face similar challenges. In this work, we present the first systematic investigation into the mechanisms of applying the next-token prediction paradigm to the visual domain. We identify three key properties that hinder the learning of high-level visual semantics: local and conditional dependence, inter-step semantic inconsistency, and spatial invariance deficiency. We show that these issues can be effectively addressed by introducing self-supervised objectives during training, leading to a novel training framework, Self-guided Training for AutoRegressive models (ST-AR). Without relying on pre-trained representation models, ST-AR significantly enhances the image understanding ability of autoregressive models and leads to improved generation quality. Specifically, ST-AR brings approximately 42% FID improvement for LlamaGen-L and 49% FID improvement for LlamaGen-XL, while maintaining the same sampling strategy.

Autoregressive (AR) models remain the standard for natural language generation but still suffer from high latency due to strictly sequential decoding. Recent diffusion-inspired approaches, such as LlaDA and Dream, mitigate this by generating in parallel, yet they suffer from two core limitations: information loss, as predictive distributions for non-finalized tokens are discarded at each step, and premature commitment, where local decisions are made without sufficient global coordination. We introduce Latent Refinement Decoding (LRD), a two-stage framework with Latent Refinement and a Predictive Feedback Loop. The first stage maintains masked positions as distributional mixtures of predicted tokens and the mask embedding, allowing the model to establish more globally consistent beliefs. The second stage progressively finalizes confident tokens while retaining uncertain ones for iterative feedback. KL-divergence dynamics provide a principled and reliable criterion for convergence and early stopping. Experiments across coding (HumanEval +6.3, MBPP +2.6) and reasoning (GSM8K +2.9, MATH500 +3.8) show that LRD improves accuracy while delivering speedups of up to 10.6x, making it a strong and versatile alternative for parallel sequence generation.

Autoregressive models, such as the GPT family, use a fixed order, usually left-to-right, to generate sequences. However, this is not a necessity. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and show that by simply adding a positional encoding for the output, this order can be modulated on-the-fly per-sample which offers key advantageous properties. It allows for the sampling of and conditioning on arbitrary subsets of tokens, and it also allows sampling in one shot multiple tokens dynamically according to a rejection strategy, leading to a sub-linear number of model evaluations. We evaluate our method across various domains, including language modeling, path-solving, and aircraft vertical rate prediction, decreasing the number of steps required for generation by an order of magnitude.

AutoRegressive (AR) models have made notable progress in image generation, with Masked AutoRegressive (MAR) models gaining attention for their efficient parallel decoding. However, MAR models have traditionally underperformed when compared to standard AR models. This study refines the MAR architecture to improve image generation quality. We begin by evaluating various image tokenizers to identify the most effective one. Subsequently, we introduce an improved Bidirectional LLaMA architecture by replacing causal attention with bidirectional attention and incorporating 2D RoPE, which together form our advanced model, MaskGIL. Scaled from 111M to 1.4B parameters, MaskGIL achieves a FID score of 3.71, matching state-of-the-art AR models in the ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, while requiring only 8 inference steps compared to the 256 steps of AR models. Furthermore, we develop a text-driven MaskGIL model with 775M parameters for generating images from text at various resolutions. Beyond image generation, MaskGIL extends to accelerate AR-based generation and enable real-time speech-to-image conversion. Our codes and models are available at https://github.com/synbol/MaskGIL.

Autoregressive (AR) models, common in sequence generation, are limited in many biological tasks such as de novo peptide sequencing and protein modeling by their unidirectional nature, failing to capture crucial global bidirectional token dependencies. Non-Autoregressive (NAR) models offer holistic, bidirectional representations but face challenges with generative coherence and scalability. To transcend this, we propose a hybrid framework enhancing AR generation by dynamically integrating rich contextual information from non-autoregressive mechanisms. Our approach couples a shared input encoder with two decoders: a non-autoregressive one learning latent bidirectional biological features, and an AR decoder synthesizing the biological sequence by leveraging these bidirectional features. A novel cross-decoder attention module enables the AR decoder to iteratively query and integrate these bidirectional features, enriching its predictions. This synergy is cultivated via a tailored training strategy with importance annealing for balanced objectives and cross-decoder gradient blocking for stable, focused learning. Evaluations on a demanding nine-species benchmark of de novo peptide sequencing show that our model substantially surpasses AR and NAR baselines. It uniquely harmonizes AR stability with NAR contextual awareness, delivering robust, superior performance on diverse downstream data. This research advances biological sequence modeling techniques and contributes a novel architectural paradigm for augmenting AR models with enhanced bidirectional understanding for complex sequence generation. Code is available at https://github.com/BEAM-Labs/denovo.

Diffusion-based planners have emerged as a promising approach for human-like trajectory generation in autonomous driving. Recent works incorporate reinforcement fine-tuning to enhance the robustness of diffusion planners through reward-oriented optimization in a generation-evaluation loop. However, they struggle to generate multi-modal, scenario-adaptive trajectories, hindering the exploitation efficiency of informative rewards during fine-tuning. To resolve this, we propose PlannerRFT, a sample-efficient reinforcement fine-tuning framework for diffusion-based planners. PlannerRFT adopts a dual-branch optimization that simultaneously refines the trajectory distribution and adaptively guides the denoising process toward more promising exploration, without altering the original inference pipeline. To support parallel learning at scale, we develop nuMax, an optimized simulator that achieves 10 times faster rollout compared to native nuPlan. Extensive experiments shows that PlannerRFT yields state-of-the-art performance with distinct behaviors emerging during the learning process.

Pretrained language models demonstrate strong performance in most NLP tasks when fine-tuned on small task-specific datasets. Hence, these autoregressive models constitute ideal agents to operate in text-based environments where language understanding and generative capabilities are essential. Nonetheless, collecting expert demonstrations in such environments is a time-consuming endeavour. We introduce a two-stage procedure to learn from a small set of demonstrations and further improve by interacting with an environment. We show that language models fine-tuned with only 1.2% of the expert demonstrations and a simple reinforcement learning algorithm achieve a 51% absolute improvement in success rate over existing methods in the ALFWorld environment.

Time series forecasting holds significant importance in many real-world dynamic systems and has been extensively studied. Unlike natural language process (NLP) and computer vision (CV), where a single large model can tackle multiple tasks, models for time series forecasting are often specialized, necessitating distinct designs for different tasks and applications. While pre-trained foundation models have made impressive strides in NLP and CV, their development in time series domains has been constrained by data sparsity. Recent studies have revealed that large language models (LLMs) possess robust pattern recognition and reasoning abilities over complex sequences of tokens. However, the challenge remains in effectively aligning the modalities of time series data and natural language to leverage these capabilities. In this work, we present Time-LLM, a reprogramming framework to repurpose LLMs for general time series forecasting with the backbone language models kept intact. We begin by reprogramming the input time series with text prototypes before feeding it into the frozen LLM to align the two modalities. To augment the LLM's ability to reason with time series data, we propose Prompt-as-Prefix (PaP), which enriches the input context and directs the transformation of reprogrammed input patches. The transformed time series patches from the LLM are finally projected to obtain the forecasts. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that Time-LLM is a powerful time series learner that outperforms state-of-the-art, specialized forecasting models. Moreover, Time-LLM excels in both few-shot and zero-shot learning scenarios.

Accurately anticipating how complex, diverse scenes will evolve requires models that represent uncertainty, simulate along extended interaction chains, and efficiently explore many plausible futures. Yet most existing approaches rely on dense video or latent-space prediction, expending substantial capacity on dense appearance rather than on the underlying sparse trajectories of points in the scene. This makes large-scale exploration of future hypotheses costly and limits performance when long-horizon, multi-modal motion is essential. We address this by formulating the prediction of open-set future scene dynamics as step-wise inference over sparse point trajectories. Our autoregressive diffusion model advances these trajectories through short, locally predictable transitions, explicitly modeling the growth of uncertainty over time. This dynamics-centric representation enables fast rollout of thousands of diverse futures from a single image, optionally guided by initial constraints on motion, while maintaining physical plausibility and long-range coherence. We further introduce OWM, a benchmark for open-set motion prediction based on diverse in-the-wild videos, to evaluate accuracy and variability of predicted trajectory distributions under real-world uncertainty. Our method matches or surpasses dense simulators in predictive accuracy while achieving orders-of-magnitude higher sampling speed, making open-set future prediction both scalable and practical. Project page: http://compvis.github.io/myriad.

Autoregressive models have achieved impressive results over a wide range of domains in terms of generation quality and downstream task performance. In the continuous domain, a key factor behind this success is the usage of quantized latent spaces (e.g., obtained via VQ-VAE autoencoders), which allow for dimensionality reduction and faster inference times. However, using existing pre-trained models to perform new non-trivial tasks is difficult since it requires additional fine-tuning or extensive training to elicit prompting. This paper introduces LASS as a way to perform vector-quantized Latent Autoregressive Source Separation (i.e., de-mixing an input signal into its constituent sources) without requiring additional gradient-based optimization or modifications of existing models. Our separation method relies on the Bayesian formulation in which the autoregressive models are the priors, and a discrete (non-parametric) likelihood function is constructed by performing frequency counts over latent sums of addend tokens. We test our method on images and audio with several sampling strategies (e.g., ancestral, beam search) showing competitive results with existing approaches in terms of separation quality while offering at the same time significant speedups in terms of inference time and scalability to higher dimensional data.

Analyzing both temporal and spatial patterns for an accurate forecasting model for financial time series forecasting is a challenge due to the complex nature of temporal-spatial dynamics: time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary as time goes by. Inspired by the successful applications of deep learning, we propose a new model to resolve the issues of forecasting household leverage in China. Our solution consists of multiple RNN-based layers and an attention layer: each RNN-based layer automatically learns the temporal pattern of a specific series with multivariate exogenous series, and then the attention layer learns the spatial correlative weight and obtains the global representations simultaneously. The results show that the new approach can capture the temporal-spatial dynamics of household leverage well and get more accurate and solid predictive results. More, the simulation also studies show that clustering and choosing correlative series are necessary to obtain accurate forecasting results.

Prevailing autoregressive (AR) models for text-to-image generation either rely on heavy, computationally-intensive diffusion models to process continuous image tokens, or employ vector quantization (VQ) to obtain discrete tokens with quantization loss. In this paper, we push the autoregressive paradigm forward with NextStep-1, a 14B autoregressive model paired with a 157M flow matching head, training on discrete text tokens and continuous image tokens with next-token prediction objectives. NextStep-1 achieves state-of-the-art performance for autoregressive models in text-to-image generation tasks, exhibiting strong capabilities in high-fidelity image synthesis. Furthermore, our method shows strong performance in image editing, highlighting the power and versatility of our unified approach. To facilitate open research, we will release our code and models to the community.

Creating machines capable of understanding the world in 3D is essential in assisting designers that build and edit 3D environments and robots navigating and interacting within a three-dimensional space. Inspired by advances in language and image modeling, we investigate the potential of autoregressive models for a new modality: structured 3D scenes. To this end, we propose a unified LLM framework that aligns language, images, and 3D scenes and provide a detailed ''cookbook'' outlining critical design choices for achieving optimal training and performance addressing key questions related to data representation, modality-specific objectives, and more. We evaluate performance across four core 3D tasks -- rendering, recognition, instruction-following, and question-answering -- and four 3D datasets, synthetic and real-world. We extend our approach to reconstruct complex 3D object shapes by enriching our 3D modality with quantized shape encodings, and show our model's effectiveness on real-world 3D object recognition tasks. Project webpage: https://glab-caltech.github.io/kyvo/

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable advancements in enabling language agents to tackle simple tasks. However, applying them for complex, multi-step, long-horizon tasks remains a challenge. Recent work have found success by separating high-level planning from low-level execution, which enables the model to effectively balance high-level planning objectives and low-level execution details. However, generating accurate plans remains difficult since LLMs are not inherently trained for this task. To address this, we propose Plan-and-Act, a novel framework that incorporates explicit planning into LLM-based agents and introduces a scalable method to enhance plan generation through a novel synthetic data generation method. Plan-and-Act consists of a Planner model which generates structured, high-level plans to achieve user goals, and an Executor model that translates these plans into environment-specific actions. To train the Planner effectively, we introduce a synthetic data generation method that annotates ground-truth trajectories with feasible plans, augmented with diverse and extensive examples to enhance generalization. We evaluate Plan-and-Act using web navigation as a representative long-horizon planning environment, demonstrating a state-of the-art 54% success rate on the WebArena-Lite benchmark.

Autoregressive patch-based image generation has recently shown competitive results in terms of image quality and scalability. It can also be easily integrated and scaled within Vision-Language models. Nevertheless, autoregressive models require a defined order for patch generation. While a natural order based on the dictation of the words makes sense for text generation, there is no inherent generation order that exists for image generation. Traditionally, a raster-scan order (from top-left to bottom-right) guides autoregressive image generation models. In this paper, we argue that this order is suboptimal, as it fails to respect the causality of the image content: for instance, when conditioned on a visual description of a sunset, an autoregressive model may generate clouds before the sun, even though the color of clouds should depend on the color of the sun and not the inverse. In this work, we show that first by training a model to generate patches in any-given-order, we can infer both the content and the location (order) of each patch during generation. Secondly, we use these extracted orders to finetune the any-given-order model to produce better-quality images. Through our experiments, we show on two datasets that this new generation method produces better images than the traditional raster-scan approach, with similar training costs and no extra annotations.

We study the empirical scaling laws of a family of encoder-decoder autoregressive transformer models on the task of joint motion forecasting and planning in the autonomous driving domain. Using a 500 thousand hours driving dataset, we demonstrate that, similar to language modeling, model performance improves as a power-law function of the total compute budget, and we observe a strong correlation between model training loss and model evaluation metrics. Most interestingly, closed-loop metrics also improve with scaling, which has important implications for the suitability of open-loop metrics for model development and hill climbing. We also study the optimal scaling of the number of transformer parameters and the training data size for a training compute-optimal model. We find that as the training compute budget grows, optimal scaling requires increasing the model size 1.5x as fast as the dataset size. We also study inference-time compute scaling, where we observe that sampling and clustering the output of smaller models makes them competitive with larger models, up to a crossover point beyond which a larger models becomes more inference-compute efficient. Overall, our experimental results demonstrate that optimizing the training and inference-time scaling properties of motion forecasting and planning models is a key lever for improving their performance to address a wide variety of driving scenarios. Finally, we briefly study the utility of training on general logged driving data of other agents to improve the performance of the ego-agent, an important research area to address the scarcity of robotics data for large capacity models training.

Sequential dependencies present a fundamental bottleneck in deploying large-scale autoregressive models, particularly for real-time applications. While traditional optimization approaches like pruning and quantization often compromise model quality, recent advances in generation-refinement frameworks demonstrate that this trade-off can be significantly mitigated. This survey presents a comprehensive taxonomy of generation-refinement frameworks, analyzing methods across autoregressive sequence tasks. We categorize methods based on their generation strategies (from simple n-gram prediction to sophisticated draft models) and refinement mechanisms (including single-pass verification and iterative approaches). Through systematic analysis of both algorithmic innovations and system-level implementations, we examine deployment strategies across computing environments and explore applications spanning text, images, and speech generation. This systematic examination of both theoretical frameworks and practical implementations provides a foundation for future research in efficient autoregressive decoding.

Robust planning in interactive scenarios requires predicting the uncertain future to make risk-aware decisions. Unfortunately, due to long-tail safety-critical events, the risk is often under-estimated by finite-sampling approximations of probabilistic motion forecasts. This can lead to overconfident and unsafe robot behavior, even with robust planners. Instead of assuming full prediction coverage that robust planners require, we propose to make prediction itself risk-aware. We introduce a new prediction objective to learn a risk-biased distribution over trajectories, so that risk evaluation simplifies to an expected cost estimation under this biased distribution. This reduces the sample complexity of the risk estimation during online planning, which is needed for safe real-time performance. Evaluation results in a didactic simulation environment and on a real-world dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. The code and a demo are available.

Autoregressive Large Language Models have transformed the landscape of Natural Language Processing. Pre-train and prompt paradigm has replaced the conventional approach of pre-training and fine-tuning for many downstream NLP tasks. This shift has been possible largely due to LLMs and innovative prompting techniques. LLMs have shown great promise for a variety of downstream tasks owing to their vast parameters and huge datasets that they are pre-trained on. However, in order to fully realize their potential, their outputs must be guided towards the desired outcomes. Prompting, in which a specific input or instruction is provided to guide the LLMs toward the intended output, has become a tool for achieving this goal. In this paper, we discuss the various prompting techniques that have been applied to fully harness the power of LLMs. We present a taxonomy of existing literature on prompting techniques and provide a concise survey based on this taxonomy. Further, we identify some open problems in the realm of prompting in autoregressive LLMs which could serve as a direction for future research.

Autoregressive models for video generation typically operate frame-by-frame, extending next-token prediction from language to video's temporal dimension. We question that unlike word as token is universally agreed in language if frame is a appropriate prediction unit? To address this, we present VideoAR, a unified framework that supports a spectrum of prediction units including full frames, key-detail frames, multiscale refinements, and spatiotemporal cubes. Among these designs, we find model video generation using spatiotemporal cubes as prediction units, which allows autoregressive models to operate across both spatial and temporal dimensions simultaneously. This approach eliminates the assumption that frames are the natural atomic units for video autoregression. We evaluate VideoAR across diverse prediction strategies, finding that cube-based prediction consistently delivers superior quality, speed, and temporal coherence. By removing the frame-by-frame constraint, our video generator surpasses state-of-the-art baselines on VBench while achieving faster inference and enabling seamless scaling to minute-long sequences. We hope this work will motivate rethinking sequence decomposition in video and other spatiotemporal domains.

Masked autoregressive models (MAR) have recently emerged as a powerful paradigm for image and video generation, combining the flexibility of masked modeling with the potential of continuous tokenizer. However, video MAR models suffer from two major limitations: the slow-start problem, caused by the lack of a structured global prior at early sampling stages, and error accumulation across the autoregression in both spatial and temporal dimensions. In this work, we propose CanvasMAR, a novel video MAR model that mitigates these issues by introducing a canvas mechanism--a blurred, global prediction of the next frame, used as the starting point for masked generation. The canvas provides global structure early in sampling, enabling faster and more coherent frame synthesis. Furthermore, we introduce compositional classifier-free guidance that jointly enlarges spatial (canvas) and temporal conditioning, and employ noise-based canvas augmentation to enhance robustness. Experiments on the BAIR and Kinetics-600 benchmarks demonstrate that CanvasMAR produces high-quality videos with fewer autoregressive steps. Our approach achieves remarkable performance among autoregressive models on Kinetics-600 dataset and rivals diffusion-based methods.

Autoregressive models have achieved promising results in natural language processing. However, for image generation tasks, they encounter substantial challenges in effectively capturing long-range dependencies, managing computational costs, and most crucially, defining meaningful autoregressive sequences that reflect natural image hierarchies. To address these issues, we present Next-Frequency Image Generation (NFIG), a novel framework that decomposes the image generation process into multiple frequency-guided stages. Our approach first generates low-frequency components to establish global structure with fewer tokens, then progressively adds higher-frequency details, following the natural spectral hierarchy of images. This principled autoregressive sequence not only improves the quality of generated images by better capturing true causal relationships between image components, but also significantly reduces computational overhead during inference. Extensive experiments demonstrate that NFIG achieves state-of-the-art performance with fewer steps, offering a more efficient solution for image generation, with 1.25times speedup compared to VAR-d20 while achieving better performance (FID: 2.81) on the ImageNet-256 benchmark. We hope that our insight of incorporating frequency-domain knowledge to guide autoregressive sequence design will shed light on future research. We will make our code publicly available upon acceptance of the paper.

Autoregressive (AR) modeling, known for its next-token prediction paradigm, underpins state-of-the-art language and visual generative models. Traditionally, a ``token'' is treated as the smallest prediction unit, often a discrete symbol in language or a quantized patch in vision. However, the optimal token definition for 2D image structures remains an open question. Moreover, AR models suffer from exposure bias, where teacher forcing during training leads to error accumulation at inference. In this paper, we propose xAR, a generalized AR framework that extends the notion of a token to an entity X, which can represent an individual patch token, a cell (a ktimes k grouping of neighboring patches), a subsample (a non-local grouping of distant patches), a scale (coarse-to-fine resolution), or even a whole image. Additionally, we reformulate discrete token classification as continuous entity regression, leveraging flow-matching methods at each AR step. This approach conditions training on noisy entities instead of ground truth tokens, leading to Noisy Context Learning, which effectively alleviates exposure bias. As a result, xAR offers two key advantages: (1) it enables flexible prediction units that capture different contextual granularity and spatial structures, and (2) it mitigates exposure bias by avoiding reliance on teacher forcing. On ImageNet-256 generation benchmark, our base model, xAR-B (172M), outperforms DiT-XL/SiT-XL (675M) while achieving 20times faster inference. Meanwhile, xAR-H sets a new state-of-the-art with an FID of 1.24, running 2.2times faster than the previous best-performing model without relying on vision foundation modules (\eg, DINOv2) or advanced guidance interval sampling.

In this paper, we present NUWA-Infinity, a generative model for infinite visual synthesis, which is defined as the task of generating arbitrarily-sized high-resolution images or long-duration videos. An autoregressive over autoregressive generation mechanism is proposed to deal with this variable-size generation task, where a global patch-level autoregressive model considers the dependencies between patches, and a local token-level autoregressive model considers dependencies between visual tokens within each patch. A Nearby Context Pool (NCP) is introduced to cache-related patches already generated as the context for the current patch being generated, which can significantly save computation costs without sacrificing patch-level dependency modeling. An Arbitrary Direction Controller (ADC) is used to decide suitable generation orders for different visual synthesis tasks and learn order-aware positional embeddings. Compared to DALL-E, Imagen and Parti, NUWA-Infinity can generate high-resolution images with arbitrary sizes and support long-duration video generation additionally. Compared to NUWA, which also covers images and videos, NUWA-Infinity has superior visual synthesis capabilities in terms of resolution and variable-size generation. The GitHub link is https://github.com/microsoft/NUWA. The homepage link is https://nuwa-infinity.microsoft.com.

Flow models are effective at progressively generating realistic images, but they generally struggle to capture long-range dependencies during the generation process as they compress all the information from previous time steps into a single corrupted image. To address this limitation, we propose integrating autoregressive modeling -- known for its excellence in modeling complex, high-dimensional joint probability distributions -- into flow models. During training, at each step, we construct causally-ordered sequences by sampling multiple images from the same semantic category and applying different levels of noise, where images with higher noise levels serve as causal predecessors to those with lower noise levels. This design enables the model to learn broader category-level variations while maintaining proper causal relationships in the flow process. During generation, the model autoregressively conditions the previously generated images from earlier denoising steps, forming a contextual and coherent generation trajectory. Additionally, we design a customized hybrid linear attention mechanism tailored to our modeling approach to enhance computational efficiency. Our approach, termed ARFlow, under 400k training steps, achieves 14.08 FID scores on ImageNet at 128 * 128 without classifier-free guidance, reaching 4.34 FID with classifier-free guidance 1.5, significantly outperforming the previous flow-based model SiT's 9.17 FID. Extensive ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of our modeling strategy and chunk-wise attention design.

Autoregressive models have achieved remarkable success across various domains, yet their performance in 3D shape generation lags significantly behind that of diffusion models. In this paper, we introduce OctGPT, a novel multiscale autoregressive model for 3D shape generation that dramatically improves the efficiency and performance of prior 3D autoregressive approaches, while rivaling or surpassing state-of-the-art diffusion models. Our method employs a serialized octree representation to efficiently capture the hierarchical and spatial structures of 3D shapes. Coarse geometry is encoded via octree structures, while fine-grained details are represented by binary tokens generated using a vector quantized variational autoencoder (VQVAE), transforming 3D shapes into compact multiscale binary sequences suitable for autoregressive prediction. To address the computational challenges of handling long sequences, we incorporate octree-based transformers enhanced with 3D rotary positional encodings, scale-specific embeddings, and token-parallel generation schemes. These innovations reduce training time by 13 folds and generation time by 69 folds, enabling the efficient training of high-resolution 3D shapes, e.g.,1024^3, on just four NVIDIA 4090 GPUs only within days. OctGPT showcases exceptional versatility across various tasks, including text-, sketch-, and image-conditioned generation, as well as scene-level synthesis involving multiple objects. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OctGPT accelerates convergence and improves generation quality over prior autoregressive methods, offering a new paradigm for high-quality, scalable 3D content creation.

In trajectory forecasting tasks for traffic, future output trajectories can be computed by advancing the ego vehicle's state with predicted actions according to a kinematics model. By unrolling predicted trajectories via time integration and models of kinematic dynamics, predicted trajectories should not only be kinematically feasible but also relate uncertainty from one timestep to the next. While current works in probabilistic prediction do incorporate kinematic priors for mean trajectory prediction, variance is often left as a learnable parameter, despite uncertainty in one time step being inextricably tied to uncertainty in the previous time step. In this paper, we show simple and differentiable analytical approximations describing the relationship between variance at one timestep and that at the next with the kinematic bicycle model. These approximations can be easily incorporated with negligible additional overhead into any existing trajectory forecasting framework utilizing probabilistic predictions, whether it is autoregressive or one-shot prediction. In our results, we find that encoding the relationship between variance across timesteps works especially well in unoptimal settings, such as with small or noisy datasets. We observe up to a 50% performance boost in partial dataset settings and up to an 8% performance boost in large-scale learning compared to previous kinematic prediction methods on SOTA trajectory forecasting architectures out-of-the-box, with no fine-tuning. In this paper, we show four analytical formulations of probabilistic kinematic priors which can be used for any Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based deep learning models, quantify the error bound on linear approximations applied during trajectory unrolling, and show results to evaluate each formulation in trajectory forecasting.

Real-world perception and interaction are inherently multimodal, encompassing not only language but also vision and speech, which motivates the development of "Omni" MLLMs that support both multimodal inputs and multimodal outputs. While a sequence of omni MLLMs has emerged, most existing systems still rely on additional expert components to achieve multimodal generation, limiting the simplicity of unified training and inference. Autoregressive (AR) modeling, with a single token stream, a single next-token objective, and a single decoder, is an elegant and scalable foundation in the text domain. Motivated by this, we present AR-Omni, a unified any-to-any model in the autoregressive paradigm without any expert decoders. AR-Omni supports autoregressive text and image generation, as well as streaming speech generation, all under a single Transformer decoder. We further address three practical issues in unified AR modeling: modality imbalance via task-aware loss reweighting, visual fidelity via a lightweight token-level perceptual alignment loss for image tokens, and stability-creativity trade-offs via a finite-state decoding mechanism. Empirically, AR-Omni achieves strong quality across three modalities while remaining real-time, achieving a 0.88 real-time factor for speech generation.

Detector simulations are an exciting application of modern generative networks. Their sparse high-dimensional data combined with the required precision poses a serious challenge. We show how combining Conditional Flow Matching with transformer elements allows us to simulate the detector phase space reliably. Namely, we use an autoregressive transformer to simulate the energy of each layer, and a vision transformer for the high-dimensional voxel distributions. We show how dimension reduction via latent diffusion allows us to train more efficiently and how diffusion networks can be evaluated faster with bespoke solvers. We showcase our framework, CaloDREAM, on datasets 2 and 3 of the CaloChallenge.

Conventional wisdom holds that autoregressive models for image generation are typically accompanied by vector-quantized tokens. We observe that while a discrete-valued space can facilitate representing a categorical distribution, it is not a necessity for autoregressive modeling. In this work, we propose to model the per-token probability distribution using a diffusion procedure, which allows us to apply autoregressive models in a continuous-valued space. Rather than using categorical cross-entropy loss, we define a Diffusion Loss function to model the per-token probability. This approach eliminates the need for discrete-valued tokenizers. We evaluate its effectiveness across a wide range of cases, including standard autoregressive models and generalized masked autoregressive (MAR) variants. By removing vector quantization, our image generator achieves strong results while enjoying the speed advantage of sequence modeling. We hope this work will motivate the use of autoregressive generation in other continuous-valued domains and applications.

Recent advances in autoregressive (AR) generative models have produced increasingly powerful systems for media synthesis. Among them, next-scale prediction has emerged as a popular paradigm, where models generate images in a coarse-to-fine manner. However, scale-wise AR models suffer from exposure bias, which undermines generation quality. We identify two primary causes of this issue: (1) train-test mismatch, where the model must rely on its own imperfect predictions during inference, and (2) imbalance in scale-wise learning difficulty, where certain scales exhibit disproportionately higher optimization complexity. Through a comprehensive analysis of training dynamics, we propose Self-Autoregressive Refinement (SAR) to address these limitations. SAR introduces a Stagger-Scale Rollout (SSR) mechanism that performs lightweight autoregressive rollouts to expose the model to its own intermediate predictions, thereby aligning train-test patterns, and a complementary Contrastive Student-Forcing Loss (CSFL) that provides adequate supervision for self-generated contexts to ensure stable training. Experimental results show that applying SAR to pretrained AR models consistently improves generation quality with minimal computational overhead. For instance, SAR yields a 5.2% FID reduction on FlexVAR-d16 trained on ImageNet 256 within 10 epochs (5 hours on 32xA100 GPUs). Given its efficiency, scalability, and effectiveness, we expect SAR to serve as a reliable post-training method for visual autoregressive generation.

High-level autonomous driving requires motion planners capable of modeling multimodal future uncertainties while remaining robust in closed-loop interactions. Although diffusion-based planners are effective at modeling complex trajectory distributions, they often suffer from stochastic instabilities and the lack of corrective negative feedback when trained purely with imitation learning. To address these issues, we propose RAD-2, a unified generator-discriminator framework for closed-loop planning. Specifically, a diffusion-based generator is used to produce diverse trajectory candidates, while an RL-optimized discriminator reranks these candidates according to their long-term driving quality. This decoupled design avoids directly applying sparse scalar rewards to the full high-dimensional trajectory space, thereby improving optimization stability. To further enhance reinforcement learning, we introduce Temporally Consistent Group Relative Policy Optimization, which exploits temporal coherence to alleviate the credit assignment problem. In addition, we propose On-policy Generator Optimization, which converts closed-loop feedback into structured longitudinal optimization signals and progressively shifts the generator toward high-reward trajectory manifolds. To support efficient large-scale training, we introduce BEV-Warp, a high-throughput simulation environment that performs closed-loop evaluation directly in Bird's-Eye View feature space via spatial warping. RAD-2 reduces the collision rate by 56% compared with strong diffusion-based planners. Real-world deployment further demonstrates improved perceived safety and driving smoothness in complex urban traffic.

The scarcity of manipulation data has motivated the use of pretrained large models from other modalities in robotics. In this work, we build upon autoregressive video generation models to propose a Physical Autoregressive Model (PAR), where physical tokens combine frames and actions to represent the joint evolution of the robot and its environment. PAR leverages the world knowledge embedded in video pretraining to understand physical dynamics without requiring action pretraining, enabling accurate video prediction and consistent action trajectories. It also adopts a DiT-based de-tokenizer to model frames and actions as continuous tokens, mitigating quantization errors and facilitating mutual enhancement. Furthermore, we incorporate a causal mask with inverse kinematics, parallel training, and the KV-cache mechanism to further improve performance and efficiency. Experiments on the ManiSkill benchmark show that PAR achieves a 100\% success rate on the PushCube task, matches the performance of action-pretrained baselines on other tasks, and accurately predicts future videos with tightly aligned action trajectories. These findings underscore a promising direction for robotic manipulation by transferring world knowledge from autoregressive video pretraining. The project page is here: https://hcplab-sysu.github.io/PhysicalAutoregressiveModel/

Autoregressive models have demonstrated remarkable success across various fields, from large language models (LLMs) to large multimodal models (LMMs) and 2D content generation, moving closer to artificial general intelligence (AGI). Despite these advances, applying autoregressive approaches to 3D object generation and understanding remains largely unexplored. This paper introduces Scale AutoRegressive 3D (SAR3D), a novel framework that leverages a multi-scale 3D vector-quantized variational autoencoder (VQVAE) to tokenize 3D objects for efficient autoregressive generation and detailed understanding. By predicting the next scale in a multi-scale latent representation instead of the next single token, SAR3D reduces generation time significantly, achieving fast 3D object generation in just 0.82 seconds on an A6000 GPU. Additionally, given the tokens enriched with hierarchical 3D-aware information, we finetune a pretrained LLM on them, enabling multimodal comprehension of 3D content. Our experiments show that SAR3D surpasses current 3D generation methods in both speed and quality and allows LLMs to interpret and caption 3D models comprehensively.

Autoregressive (AR) vision-language models (VLMs) have long dominated multimodal understanding, reasoning, and graphical user interface (GUI) grounding. Recently, discrete diffusion vision-language models (DVLMs) have shown strong performance in multimodal reasoning, offering bidirectional attention, parallel token generation, and iterative refinement. However, their potential for GUI grounding remains unexplored. In this work, we evaluate whether discrete DVLMs can serve as a viable alternative to AR models for GUI grounding. We adapt LLaDA-V for single-turn action and bounding-box prediction, framing the task as text generation from multimodal input. To better capture the hierarchical structure of bounding-box geometry, we propose a hybrid masking schedule that combines linear and deterministic masking, improving grounding accuracy by up to 6.1 points in Step Success Rate (SSR) over the GUI-adapted LLaDA-V trained with linear masking. Evaluations on four datasets spanning web, desktop, and mobile interfaces show that the adapted diffusion model with hybrid masking consistently outperforms the linear-masked variant and performs competitively with autoregressive counterparts despite limited pretraining. Systematic ablations reveal that increasing diffusion steps, generation length, and block length improves accuracy but also increases latency, with accuracy plateauing beyond a certain number of diffusion steps. Expanding the training data with diverse GUI domains further reduces latency by about 1.3 seconds and improves grounding accuracy by an average of 20 points across benchmarks. These results demonstrate that discrete DVLMs are a promising modeling framework for GUI grounding and represent an important step toward diffusion-based GUI agents.

Recent progress in controllable image generation and editing is largely driven by diffusion-based methods. Although diffusion models perform exceptionally well in specific tasks with tailored designs, establishing a unified model is still challenging. In contrast, autoregressive models inherently feature a unified tokenized representation, which simplifies the creation of a single foundational model for various tasks. In this work, we propose EditAR, a single unified autoregressive framework for a variety of conditional image generation tasks, e.g., image editing, depth-to-image, edge-to-image, segmentation-to-image. The model takes both images and instructions as inputs, and predicts the edited images tokens in a vanilla next-token paradigm. To enhance the text-to-image alignment, we further propose to distill the knowledge from foundation models into the autoregressive modeling process. We evaluate its effectiveness across diverse tasks on established benchmarks, showing competitive performance to various state-of-the-art task-specific methods. Project page: https://jitengmu.github.io/EditAR/